SB Nation - Jabar Gaffney

Potent Quotables - Raider Week Wednesday

TJ Johnson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:14:40 -0000

11 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels calls in a play during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. The Broncos won 44-13. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

On Oakland Head Coach Tom Cable announcing that QB Charlie Frye will start on Sunday
"It's not going to change our preparation. We'll get familiar with him this week. I've had some familiarity before. He's played in games, obviously, in this league for a few years. This won't be his first opportunity (to play). We'll get to know him over the next four days. We don't expect their offense to change that dramatically. They've got a lot of explosive players (and a) good running game. We'll prepare like normal."

On how to familiarize the Broncos with Frye
"We'll have all the film of him actually playing in games and all of that stuff available for our players here today. We'll talk about some of his strengths and weaknesses just like we would any other player."

On how the secondary's communication is affected if S Renaldo Hill cannot play against Oakland on Sunday
"'Dawk' (S Brian Dawkins) certainly does a lot of communicating in the back end, also. The secondary as a group has to communicate together. If one of those guys-and sometimes there are five or six of them on the field together-doesn't know the call, then you've got a bad play. The corners have to communicate to the safeties. Everybody who's giving a call has to get a call. Everybody who's supposed to get one is going to keep asking for it until they hear it. Brian, the corners, (CB) Ty (Law) and the guys that have been playing, they'll be in there and they'll help. We've got a couple guys who we're going to rep (at safety) this week, and then we'll see how Renaldo progresses. Other guys have to kind of step up and pick up some of that burden whenever you lose a player who is really kind of like a quarterback in the secondary."

On if S David Bruton and S Josh Barrett will take reps in Hill's place during practice
"David, (S) Vernon (Fox) and Josh, they're all back there. Like I said, we'll see how Renaldo progresses this week. We've got who we've got."

On Bruton's and Barrett's progress this season
"They've played a lot in the offseason and the preseason. (They) haven't played much safety during the course of the regular season. They get reps every week (in practice), and they get in there and they play and they learn. It's their job to know the game plan, but you'll find out a lot more when you put them in there in a real game. (We) have faith in both of them or all of them and trust them back there in the deep part of the field."

On how to protect the Broncos' health late in the season
"You have to kind of balance that with what you need to do to get ready for the game. We're certainly not unique in that we have some guys banged up and a long list on the (injury) report that says we've got some people with some bumps and bruises. You're right. This time of the year, everybody's going through that. I think you kind of take a hard look at your team and see what they need. Today, we're not going to go ahead and practice in pads today because we're banged up a little bit and just came off of a physical game. That's what we need today. We'll evaluate it going forward. Again, the biggest thing is if you can get your football team to game day where they can play physical on game day with a lot of energy and feel good about themselves physically and mentally. That's the most important thing. Right now, we've got nine practices left during the course of the season, and I hope by now we know how to do most of the things that we're trying to do physically. The most important thing at this part of the year is that your team is mentally fresh and as physically fresh as you can have them on game day."

On maximizing WR Brandon Marshall's ability
"He's a very good player. We all know that. You guys have known that for a while. He's got a unique skill set that allows you to do a lot of things with him. One of the things that I admire the most (about Marshall) is how smart he is because receiver is not an easy position to play in this league against all of the different looks you see, against all the different techniques and against all of the different corners. Guys have different talents and abilities that are covering (wide receivers), and you have to understand how to get open and what can help you get open. Any feedback that they can give us on game day certainly is worthwhile as long as it is the right stuff. He understands adjustments. We change some things during the course of the game, and he can change right along with us. He's great to coach, fun to have out there on game day and does a lot of great things. Hopefully, we'll (maximize his ability) this week, too."

On why Marshall leads the Broncos in receptions
"Certain games dictate that the ball goes to somebody more than others. We've seen that through the course of the year. Brandon has been a beneficiary of that; (WR) Eddie (Royal) was, certainly, earlier against New England. (WR) Jabar (Gaffney) has caught a bunch of balls here and there throughout the course of the year. (TE Tony) Scheffler had a bunch in San Diego. We still continue to have that philosophy. The ball is going to go where we think that it should go based on what they're doing to us, and hopefully, we've got enough talented players out there to hurt them in whatever coverages or blitz schemes they try to use against us. You always try to get the ball to guys who can make plays, and we've got a lot of them. It just so happened the last five or six weeks here we've really kind of been able to get him the ball a bunch. He's getting open. Again, it's a two-way street. You don't just design plays and then automatically have (a player make) 12 catches. You design your offense, and it's their responsibility to create separation and give you an opportunity to throw the ball in there. He's done a great job of it and a lot of our guys have. It's just he's had more turns. Again, there's not a big ‘force the ball to Brandon Marshall' philosophy going on here. You guys know that. He was open a bunch last week, and that's why he caught so many passes."

On if he is concerned with the Broncos' offensive balance against Indianapolis
"No, because again, if they want to just let us throw the ball to one guy, you take what they give you. Last week, we took what they gave us, and we're going to continue to do that. If they take that away, then the ball will go somewhere else. The most important thing for us is that we're moving the ball and having positive plays. Whether that be to 10 different receivers or five or three (to the) tight ends, backs or receivers, it doesn't make any difference. We're hoping to be productive no matter who we're throwing to."

On how the Raiders have changed since the Broncos last played them
"They're playing with a lot of guys who we didn't play against in the first game. (WR Chaz) Schilens is a go-to receiver. There's no doubt about that. Third down (and) red zone, he's had a big impact there for them. (He) made a bunch of big plays in the Cincinnati game late. (QB Bruce) Gradkowski obviously did some different things and moves in and out of the pocket well. We don't expect that to change. (RB Justin) Fargas, we didn't play against, either. (He's) a different style of runner. (Oakland) is one of only two teams or maybe the only team that has three backs who have 80 carries or more. Fargas, (RB Darren) McFadden and (RB Michael) Bush, they don't really care who's in there. They give it to all three of them and let them go with it. (WR Louis) Murphy is certainly playing much better. He was a young kid, obviously, when we played them the first time. This guy's made a bunch of big plays, a bunch of big catches and touchdowns the last month. He's playing at a different level. Defensively, I think 26 passes have been thrown at (CB Nnamdi) Asomugha in 13 games, which is amazing to me because he just shuts everybody down. They've created turnovers in the red zone, and then they've created turnovers when people have been backed up, which has given their offense a short field sometimes, and they've punched it in. They've continued to progress and get better and improve. They've got some players healthy now who they didn't when we first played them. We know what happened here last year. We were 6-4 and they were 2-8, and they came in here and drummed us 31-10. The fact that we are 8-5 and they're 4-9 doesn't really make a difference to us. It's a division game. We know it's going to be tough and physical, and they're playing a different style of football. They're aggressive. The word I use to describe them is ‘explosive.' (With) their kickers, their offense and their defense, if you take a play off, you're giving yourself a chance to have a big play put up against you."

On if his message to the Broncos changes entering the season's final three games
"We all understand where we're at. At the beginning of the season, we wanted to put ourselves into a position at this point to be able to compete to be able to play in the postseason. We've done that. Now, our urgency has to go up along with the rest of the league's. We can't take any days off (or) any plays off. We have to have good practice days the rest of the season because like I said, we only have nine of them left to try to earn more. The only thing we know is if we win three, we'll have a chance to play longer. That's what we're focused on right now, and it starts with the Raiders."

QB KYLE ORTON

On why Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha is so successful
"(His) speed (and) length; (he's) physical and basically runs the receivers route for him; he's extremely fast, quick; and he's got great length, too. It's not like you can just expect to throw the ball up on him and have him not make plays on the ball. When he's there and people throw at him, he certainly makes plays at the ball, so that adds another factor that makes him very tough."

On how you attack a corner like Asomugha
"You certainly don't want to live working against him if you have a choice. The other (cornerback) is very, good too. (No.) 37 (CB Chris Johnson) is a good player, but if you certainly have your choice, you don't want to be going at (No.) 21 (Asomugha)."

On the Asomugha-Brandon Marshall matchup
"Brandon is pretty good, too. He's got to cover Brandon, so it will be a good matchup all day. We have a lot of confidence in (No.) 15 (Marshall) when we throw to his routes."

On not being 100-percent healthy late in the season
"I don't think anybody is. That's part of the league. Good teams can deal with it, and teams that can't win late, they can't deal with it. You've got to have depth, you've got to have tough guys that play through it and you've got to just, more than anything, have production on the practice field. You can't just have everybody shutting it down three days a week and then showing up to play (on Sunday) and nothing ever gets done. It's tough and it's a battle, but we've got a lot of guys out there practicing and trying to get ready for this week."

On having to play through pain late in the season
"Obviously, there are some things that you can't play with, but if you can play with it, you've got to be out there."

On his ability to perform better when he's 100-percent healthy
"Obviously, the healthier you are (and) the better you feel, the better you are going to play. To start off the season for five games and have a broken finger, it's not perfect. It's not how you want it, but that's just how it is. You just try to deal with it and get through it."

On Marshall's football intelligence in comparison to his physical ability
"His size and his physical ability, to me, is what are most impressive, but he's a smart football-he's a total football player. You're not as good as he is without understanding the game and understanding defenses and what teams are trying to do. You just can't catch that many passes without having a good understanding of how teams are trying to take you away."

On his confidence in the receiving corps
"I have a ton of confidence. You look at (WR) Jabar Gaffney, (who) has been big all year. (WR) Eddie Royal has had big games for us. Whenever (WR Brandon) Stokley plays, he comes in and has huge plays for us. Our two tight ends (Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler) have been very productive as well when we've asked them to be. We've got a lot of people to throw the ball to. It's not like Brandon is going to be getting 20 balls every game."

On the Broncos' running backs in short-yardage situations
"(RB) Knowshon (Moreno) runs the ball pretty tough in short yardage. You can't run through everybody. We've got to do a better job of blocking for him. We've got to do a better job of getting a surge. That's on everybody on the offense, not just Knowshon. We've got good short-yardage backs. (RB) Peyton (Hillis) is a good one as well, but this isn't Knowshon's problem. This is the offense's problem."

On the Broncos' depth at running back
"We've had a deep backfield all year. We've got (RB) LaMont (Jordan) who hasn't played a ton for us lately that can come in and do good things. (We also have) Peyton, Knowshon and ‘Buck' (RB Correll Buckhalter). We've got a lot of guys that can play."

On if he is resting more and receiving more treatment in attempts to remain healthy late in the season
"(You do) everything, all of the above. As bad as you feel (on) Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, you've got to have faith that your preparation for your body is going to show dividends on Sunday. I know that's how I've felt. I haven't felt very well until about Saturday. (On) Saturday, you start feeling a little bit better, and by Sunday, you feel alright. The next week, you've got to go and do it all over again."

On if the Broncos' urgency increases entering the last three games of the season
"For us, it does for sure. We know what we've got to do the last three games. If we take care of our business, we'll be right where we want to be. It all starts this week with a tough divisional game, and we can't sleep on them. Every game you ever play inside the division is a tough game. We've got two (division games) out of the three (remaining), so we'll have a tough task, for sure."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On if Oakland's announcement that QB Charlie Frye will start on Sunday affects the Broncos' preparation
"No, it is about what they do as a team. You know what they like to do. (They are a) big, physical team. They are going to try and run the ball and take shots when they have opportunities. You prepare for what they do best. Whoever plays or whoever does not play shouldn't make a difference in how we prepare."

On how the secondary will respond to injuries at safety
"It makes other guys who have been in the backseat doing some special teams work step up and play some ball. That, basically, is what it does. As far as (injuries) in a game, I've seen things happen in games before, and you have to continue and roll and continue and play and do what you can until those guys who can come back, come back. The guys who are going to step up have to be able to step up and make big plays for us."

On how members of the secondary can contribute in place of injured Broncos
"Those guys, each one of them brings different things to the table, but the thing that each one presents is a playmaking potential from that position. That is what you always look for: (someone who is) physical, can come up and make the open-field tackle when they need to, can catch the deep ball and go get it when they have to. Each one of those guys is going to be asked to do those things at different times of the season. Hopefully, it won't be too long and (S) Renaldo (Hill) will be able to get back in there soon. Until that time comes, they will have to do it."

On if this Sunday's game against Oakland is a trap game
"Is it a trap game? Trap games? We are in the last part of the season and trying to position ourselves to do what we need to do game by game. How can you have a trap game? There is no such thing as a trap game this late in the season."

On how to keep the Broncos focused on winning all three remaining games
"By not saying what you just said, ‘If we win all three.' It is about winning this one. Then when that happens-if we are able to pull this game out-we go to the next one. It is a one-game attitude. You can't try and crop them together and say, ‘If we do this...' ‘If' will get you beat every week, so we've got to go out and make sure we concentrate on this team, which is a very talented team. They are obviously going to come in here and want to win this game, so you can't look at anybody past this team."

On mentoring younger Broncos like S David Bruton
"I feel like I've been blessed to play this game, obviously, for a long time, and a lot of wisdom, I've received. I feel like it is my duty to pass that on to young guys under me. Whatever I see-he sits right next to me, so I'm always whispering different things to him to allow him to see what I see, what I'm seeing on the field and why I do certain things. Hopefully, it will allow him to be able to step into this position and be able to be where he needs to be right away from some of the things that we've talked about. I believe that is my position. I need to be able to help young guys under me, to help them to make sure that the safety position on whatever team that I'm playing for is a strong one for years to come."

On if it is more difficult to mentally prepare for teams that don't have elite quarterbacks
"This is crunch time. This is what you play football for, to put yourself in position to be able to do some things after (the regular season) if you continue to play good football. You shouldn't really need any one particular player to get you up for any game going forward. It is the position and where we are in the season (that) should get you up for every game. I understand outside of the locker room how that can mesmerize somebody to say that. You don't have (to face) a (Indianapolis QB) Peyton Manning or a (New England QB) Tom Brady or anybody playing at quarterback, but it does not matter this time of the season. The only thing that matters is getting wins and losses-wins hopefully-against good football teams. (Oakland) is a good football team. Their record may not say it and people may look down on them, but I look at the film and what I see is a lot of speed on the outside, a running attack that can gash you at anytime and a huge, physical offensive line that can move people off the ball. That is what I'm looking at. I don't look at their record."

On how he feels physically after a game
"(It) depends on the team, depends on the game and depends on what I've asked my body to do on that Sunday. Usually, Monday is not a fun day. It is a slow day for me, and I try and do everything in my power to get my body ready to come into practice and be able to run and run at a good pace so I'll be ready to run full speed and do the same crazy stuff again on that next Sunday."

On facing Oakland Frye
"Again, our job is to do specific thing, to try and be as familiar as possible with their offensive scheme, what they like to do-a lot of different things-and play football. When the ball is snapped, we have to be where we are supposed to be. We disguise (coverages) with everybody. It doesn't matter the quarterback. Once the ball is snapped, plays have to be made, edges have to be set (and) tackles have to be made. That is the definition of a defense later in the season, when you are able to do those things and correct those mistakes that you've made early so that you can play your best football."

On if he believes WR Brandon Marshall and Buffalo WR Terrell Owens are similar players
"Absolutely, you see that physically on the field. Probably (Houston WR) Andre (Johnson) will be another one from the Texans. (They are) physically just gifted, huge guys that can run and run after the catch and go get the ball when it's in the air. They present matchup problems every week. I don't care what team they are going against, they are going to have matchup problems going against those guys. Each one of them, from those two anyway, that I played with, (their) work ethic is unbelievable (with) the way they work in practice, and that translates into the game. That is why he is able to do the things in the game that he does because of his work ethic in practice."

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

4 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Potent Quotables - The Post-Game Media Gathering

John Bena — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos Brandon Marshall (15) tackles Pittsburgh Steelers' Troy Polamalu after Polamalu intercepted a pass by Kyle Orton in the fourth quarter of the NFL football game in Denver on Monday, Nov. 9, 2009. The Steelers won 28-10. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

Browse more photos »

DENVER BRONCOS HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

General

"Let's start by giving credit to the Steelers. They are certainly a well-coached football team, [Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach] Mike Tomlin certainly does a good job getting them prepared every week. We knew we would have to play 60 good minutes of football to compete, and had an opportunity to win there at the end. I felt like we did that for a half and then they ultimately took over the game there in the second half and we struggled to do much offensively, struggled to stop them defensively, and really they took over the game there."

On the conservative play calling with 2:47 left in the second quarter

"One of our goals in that situation is to not give it back to a team like Pittsburgh. We wanted to just go ahead and get a first down and take it to the two-minute warning, and then we would go ahead and go into the two-minute offense, which we tried to do and ended up with a negative [yardage] play that killed the drive. We accomplished one thing, we didn't give it back to them with before there was 11-seconds left. We started our two-minute offense with 1:30-1:45 left, which is plenty of time if you run the right way to get down the field and score some points. We would do the same thing again."

On competing against 2 strong defenses the past 2 games

"We certainly haven't run the ball very well the last two weeks, and we had trouble protecting the passer tonight. There is a lot of things that go into that, and that is not just an offensive line thing or a tight end thing, or a running back. All 11 guys on the field have to work together to do that, and we certainly have not done enough the last two weeks offensively to help our team win a lot of games. We are going to need to improve significantly in that area and continue to work hard and get better."

On Pittsburgh offensive adjustments after half

"I know they ran a little no-huddle deal which wasn't too fast in terms of their tempo. They tried to pick the tempo up somewhat doing that. They also ran the ball effectively as the game wore on, maybe more in the fourth-quarter than anything. They were trying to throw some short passes there in the third quarter, get some things going, get some momentum, get some rhythm. They accomplished that. We tried to come after them a few times. We got to them the one, right there in the first drive. Ultimately [Pittsburgh Steelers QB] Ben Roethlisberger did a nice job of getting the ball to people that needed it, and they stayed balanced, we didn't. We became one dimensional, they didn't. In a game like that that is close, 7-3, 10-7 in the third quarter you need to be able to have effective balance, we didn't and they did and I think that was a really big key to the game. "

On Denver Broncos T Tyler Polumbus

"I thought Tyler hung in there pretty good. He is playing against two really good football players. That was part of our game plan, some of that was for him, some of that was by design for another part of the scheme. We expect him to go in there and play well and sometimes he had help, and sometimes he didn't."

On how to achieve balance with the quarterback

"There's no shortcut to it. We have to work hard at getting ourselves to run the ball better and be more effective running the football and staying out of third and long, which we were in a lot today. That alone will allow us to stay balanced. And if we can maintain our balance with some of the play action passes that worked early in the game the first half I think had more merit to run later in the game but once you fall behind and you really become a one-dimensional offense that is a difficult task to try and overcome and do some of those things because the defense is not going to honor them. We have to go back to work on Wednesday, we've got to get the running game going. We've got a lot of things to do better though, it's not just the running game."

On P Mitch Berger

"We'll take a look at the film and see if there is anything. I know there were a couple of short punts there. I know he did good things tonight, too. Punted some directionally that we wanted directional punted. We'll take a look at everything tomorrow morning."

On QB Kyle Orton

"He started well, obviously. He did a lot of good things. I think once the game became a one-dimensional game we had a lot of players that I don't believe really played as well as we would've liked. It became much more of a passing game than we wanted this to become. I think we only ran the ball fourteen times so anytime you're going to put the game in the quarterbacks hands against a defense like that who does a great job of attacking protections, pressuring the middle of the pocket, which they did and seemingly on a consistent basis tonight you're going to have trouble regardless. We have to do a better job of making sure that we don't put that kind of pressure on our pass protection, on our quarterback by maintaining our balance and we didn't do a very good job of that tonight."

On Pittsburgh's defense

"They are an extremely well-coached football team and I think you're always going to see something different. This is the National Football League and ultimately they designed their pressures and they designed defenses and their disguises to try to combat what we're doing, most of which we have blocked before and seen before. They did a better job of executing it than we did on offense. Give them credit, they deserve it they played much better than we did for sixty minutes. We've got a lot of work to do."

BRONCOS QB KYLE ORTON

On his first interception of the game

"They ran a blitz where the nose tackle kind of peeled off and relayed to the halfback. As I was getting ready to throw it, the nose tackle kind of bumped (RB) Knowshon (Moreno) off the route, and it led to the pick."

On the running game being limited in the last two contests

"We would love to be balanced, but we feel like we have got a good pass game. If it comes to throwing the ball 40 times, we have won that way in the past, and we should be able to do it in the future."

On the offense's performance at Baltimore and against Pittsburgh

"We got beat the last two games, and you win and lose as a team. Certainly, that means the offense isn't doing their part, as well. We had a great week of practice. We really did. I think everybody came and was focused and dedicated. I am sure we will get the same amount of effort this week in practice. We lost to two good football teams. They beat us. (We will) move on and get ready for Washington."

On the offensive struggles at Baltimore and against Pittsburgh

"They are two good defenses, and certainly, when you play those guys, the margin for error is very small. You have got to get all 11 guys on the same page and execute for 10, 11 full plays in a row. We haven't been able to do that for one reason or the other, and we have got to get it back on track. As a quarterback, I put it on myself. It is my offense, and I will get it back on track."

On the locker room following tonight's loss to Pittsburgh

"Certainly, (we are) not (in) panic mode. We are in first place of the AFC West (and) lost to two good football teams that outplayed us for 60 minutes both times. I just think we responded very well throughout the week last week after a loss. (We) practiced very well (and) prepared very well. Unfortunately, it didn't turn out to a victory for us this week, but I just feel as long as we come back and prepare that way, get back to work (and) get back on track. We have got a big game at Washington, and it is going to be a big one for us. Hopefully, we will go out and play better and get a win."

BRONCOS OLB/DE ROBERT AYERS

On if the game plans of Baltimore and Pittsburgh were similar

"Not really, the things we saw them do on film were the same things they (Baltimore) did against us. They executed and made the plays when they needed to make them and that's the reason why they won."

On the defensive performance

"Yeah, we made some plays. They made some plays against us but the plays aren't what wins the game, it's the final score. They did a good job, they scored more points and did what they needed to do, that's all that matters. Big plays are big plays but at the end of the game who has the most points is what's most important."

On rebounding after consecutive losses

"We just can't listen to all this stuff, good teams recover from things like this. You bounce back from adversity and that is all you can do is come back on Wednesday and practice hard and correct our mistakes. We need to get better from there and get ready for Washington and that's all we can do."

BRONCOS WR BRANDON STOKLEY

On Pittsburgh defense

"They are a good defensive team. We were able to move the ball pretty good in the first half, we just didn't finish drives off and that's what you've got to do against a good team, put points on the board and we were never able to do that."

On making offensive adjustments

"Well, they're a good football team. They throw a lot of things at you and try to confuse you. Hats off to them, they did a good job tonight. But like I said, we've just got to finish drives off with touchdowns and put points on the board. We just weren't able to do that tonight."

On second half troubles

"We've played good teams and we didn't execute very well in the second halves of both games (Pittsburgh and Baltimore). That's what happens when you play good teams and you don't play very well."

BRONCOS DL KENNY PETERSON

On forcing a third quarter fumble

"Anytime you go out there, you try to get to the quarterback and make a play. It just happens that I read my guard pretty well and beat him on a play and had an opportunity at the ball."

On what went wrong after the forced fumble

"They just outplayed us. There is a reason why they are the defending Super Bowl champions. It's unfortunate that we couldn't capitalize on some of the plays that we made. Hats off to Pittsburgh, they played a good game."

On difficulties facing no huddle offenses

"Absolutely not, it's no problem. Like I said, they made plays and that's what the game is about, making plays and that's what they did. They beat us in all phases of the game."

WR JABAR GAFFNEY

On the loss

"We are disappointed with the two losses, but we are still in first place now. We had a chance to do some nice things out there tonight, but we still have a long season to go and we are not going to panic and try to get it fixed."

On offensive struggles

"It is different things every time, between poor execution and drops. Whatever the case is, we have to stop it. The defense has been playing good, but we've been having them on the field too much."

CB ANDRE GOODMAN

On the loss

"There is no panic here and we just have to get back to the drawing board and do what we have to do to make those proper adjustments. We have to get back to getting off the field on third down in the second half, which we did a good job of in the first six games."

On the defense

"Sixty minutes, we can play Fifty great minutes of defense but if we don't play for Sixty minutes then it really doesn't matter. We got a timely turnover in the red zone and took advantage of that, but they came back in the very next series and scored a touchdown with a lot of big plays, and the staple of our defense has been not giving up big plays. I think they did a great job in both the passing and running game, but that is the reason they are champs. They know how to make their adjustments in the game and if we are going to compete with the heavy weights then we have to learn how to make those adjustments"

On the loss

"It is not tough at all; it is just about doing our jobs. If you told us at the half way point we would be 6-2 most guys would be happy with that. It is just the way that these last two weeks have went, that is kind of disheartening. Both losses have come against the same division and the same type of team which are both playoff teams from last year."

ILB ANDRA DAVIS

On the Steelers halftime adjustments

"They made some really good adjustments and we really did not have an answer for them. We also did not execute what we were supposed to do. We are not going to get down; we are 6-2 and have a lot of ball to play. We are going to stay positive, and we are still in first place in our division and have 8 more games left. We are going to continue to encourage each other, and play hard for one another and get back on the winning track"

CB TY LAW

On matching up with WR Hines Ward

"That is what they brought me in for. I just had to do what I do and stick to what I know. I wasn't trying to get to fancy. I was just trying go out there and do the best that I can on such short notice. Overall I am pretty happy with how I did, but I think that I could have done better. I know I can do better, and of course it is a disappointing loss. Once I get a couple of games under my belt, I think I will be able to help the team."

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

Poll

Do you like the new look of MHR's front page?

Yes! Much Better

116 votes

No! Give us our colors back

162 votes

No opinion

105 votes

383 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 2009

Steve Nichols — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:30:31 -0000

How good are the Ravens? Don't be fooled by the 3-3 record. They've beat the teams they should have (KC and CLE), and won against a tough SD team. Their losses came to teams that are pretty good (NE, CIN, and MIN). Don't sell this team short.

On the other hand, many folks are more likely to sell Denver short. Vegas has them down by 3 points at the time of this writing, despite a 6-0 record. Denver beat two teams that beat BAL (NE and CIN), as well as CLE, SD, OAK, and DAL. How good is Denver?

Special Teams - Sep and Oct players of the month (Kicker Matt Prater and Returner Eddie Royal).

Offense - Kyle Orton, who played the first four games with a protective glove has thrown only one INT (a bomb throw to end a half with no time left) and holds a 100+ QB rating.

Defense - Keeping opponents to an average 11 points a game.

But how do the teams match up? Both teams come off of a bye week, and have had ample time to draw up superior game plans. Who wins in each aspect of the game, and how should they plan the game? Let's look at some possibilities....

Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense

(Advantage in bold and italics)

Ravens Offense Broncos Defense

Points 28.2 (5th) 11 (1st)

Yards 393.2 (5th) 262.5 (2nd)

Pass 268.3 (8th) 182.8 (8th)

Run 124.8 (10th) 79.7 (3rd)

Two things come to mind when thinking of Denver's pass defense. First, the Denver secondary is legendary. Brian Dawkins at FS and Champ Bailey at CB is unbelievable. But Denver's pass rush is amazing, too. Elvis Dumervil (ROLB/RDE) is a pass-rushing machine and leads the NFL with 10 sacks. Elvis gets moved around the line to create confusion and mismatches, and his exceptionalism allows other players to make plays as well. How does the Baltimore Offense counter?

Well, that's a tricky question. In their last three games, Baltimore has given up seven sacks. Jared Gaither (LT) will play this week, but fans of both teams will hold their breath because Jared suffered a scary neck injury earlier on, and this makes things dicey.

Beyond that, Joe Flacco (QB) is playing very well with a 93.8 QB rating (and is coming off of a hurt ankle). His WRs may be a little suspect, though. Derrick Mason is a good WR, and needs to be accounted for. Todd Heap is also a fine TE. But according to Bruce (our good friend from Baltimore Beatdown) the receiving corps is having issues with passes over the middle, and is depending on sideline curls (too much). Frankly, I don't think this hurts Baltimore against Denver.

Against a great secondary, there are two things to avoid. One is the deep pass, and the other is an "out route". Both are the leading ways to get an interception, and a well-placed pass on a curl route is a safe (if boring) way to move the ball. In fact, Denver isn't averse to short hitches and curls to the edges on offense, and they move the ball just fine without interceptions in that mode. This is also a good, quick way to get rid of the ball against a good pass rush.

Baltimore's offense would be wise to stick with those curls. They have a decent running game behind backs Ray Rice with 6 yds per carry (who is also effective out of screens), and Willis McGahee (4.5 ypc). In fact, a lot of the Baltimore offense reminds me of Denver's.

Baltimore has a good running game, and they do well with short, high-percentage throws. They also make threats with screens.

This is an efficient team that doesn't bowl you over with yards, but they make their yards count and put up a lot of points. Denver is also learning the value of this kind of football. Having jettisoned a QB that put up excellent yards but a lot of INTs, Denver has moved in the direction of "game management", careful passing football and racked up wins as a result.

How does one attack such a team? Baltimore has an offensive issue that Denver's offense doesn't share - pass blocking. I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but Denver is winning the defense battles with an amazing pass rush, and they should do that here, too.

A good pass rush from the front 5 (Denver runs a 5-2 look) allows the two ILBs to account for the run, and plugs enough gaps (Denver runs a 1-gap attack) to prevent runs. But in the pass game, that same effective rush harries QBs and can break up plays in the backfield before they get started. If Baltimore can hold the Denver rush (a tall order) they can get the screens out, and make the quick, short passes to move the ball down field steadily. And while nobody is running the Broncos over in the running game (Denver holds teams to under 80 yards rushing), Baltimore needs to try to be the first. A good running game brushes back effective rushes and blitzes, and this would take away Denver's best defensive asset. Still, that's a tough order.

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense

Broncos Offense Ravens Defense

Points 22.2 (17th) 21.7 (19th)

Yards 368.7 (9th) 332.7 (19th)

Pass 236 (12th) 241.5 (23rd)

Run 132.7 (7th) 91.2 (7th)

Remember the days when the Ravens were killers on defense, but not so hot on offense? Things have changed quickly. Denver may not light up the scoreboard, but the Ravens aren't exactly shutting down offenses, either. How do offenses beat the Ravens? In the air.

The Ravens have a strong run defense. The DL features former Broncos favorite Trevor Pryce at LDE, but the real power is at LB with LILB Ray Lewis and ROLB Terrell Suggs. Behind them is one of my favorite free safeties in the game, Ed Reed. Ed is one of those "do it all" guys that can cover the pass and slam into a RB like a freight train. But Lewis, Suggs, and Reed are having a rough time this year, and the problem is at corner.

Samari Rolle is a very good corner, but is on the PUP list (injury). He may likely not return this season. This leaves Fabian Washington (who?) at #1 corner and former Bronco nickleback Domonique Foxworth at #2. Neither player has an INT this year.

The Baltimore pass rush faces a difficult prospect, too. Denver's tackles (Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris) are both young, Pro Bowl-caliber players. Pressure will need to come up the middle, if at all. As Orton is a pocket passer, this is where rushes need to come from, anyway.

So the Ravens' best card is their run defense, which ties Denver's run offense. Not a dominating way to face the Broncos.

Denver's path to winning is classic. First, see who has the edge in the running game. If Denver establishes the run, the game is over. I don't see the Ravens stopping the pass in any event. If Denver can run, they can mix up the run and pass, and go from there. The best option may not be the runs up the gut (Denver is awful on short-yardage, 3rd-down scenarios). Denver should test the edges.

Whether the run works or not, expect Denver to play 3 WR (or more) sets. This forces Baltimore to take LBs off the field (their strength) and to replace them with corners (their weakness). Denver has excellence at WR in depth:

Brandon Marshall, who zigzags and plows overs defenders with ease,
Eddie Royal, who ran a kick return and punt return for TDs against the Chargers in the last game,
Jabar Gaffney, who runs routes perfectly in the Denver system (the same routes he ran in NE),
Brandon Stokley, who switches up at slot with Jabar, and has experience, toughness, and great hands.

Between Orton's intelligent ball-handling, Denver's receivers, and the weakness at Baltimore's CBs, this is the matchup Denver fans should look forward to the most - the Denver passing game. If I'm running Baltimore's defense, I put the CBs in zone and play bend-don't-break.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Stop the run. I don't think Baltimore can win as a one-dimensional offense.
Get the early lead. Denver has been starting slow, but an early lead takes away the Baltimore running game.
Avoid turnovers. Baltimore can win this game if they win on field position. They can do this with a key fumble recovery or two. They shouldn't get many chances for INTs against Orton.

Baltimore

Win the time of possession battle. Keep the ball away from Denver's offense.
Win the special teams battle. Don't let Royal get going on punts or kicks. Denver has a new punter this week - make the most of it. Field position!
Baltimore has been able to put up a lot of points this year. Denver is NOT a shootout team.

Conclusion

Both teams are coming off of a bye. The game is in Baltimore, and Baltimore doesn't want to be 3-4 after this week. The weather (at the time of this writing) is expected to be rain. This favors defense and running. For this matchup, this would favor Baltimore.

On the other hand, Denver beats Baltimore in 6 of 8 comparisons I've listed above, and ties in two (based in relative League rankings). In terms of player matchups, I give Denver the advantage in depth. In fact, I give Denver the edge or tie at every player position comparison, including STs (Den) and Coaching (Den).

In my mind, Baltimore is very underrated. While their AFC North rivals PITT and CIN look good this year, BAL is a team that could turn on a dime and improve quickly. The only area that I believe they are stuck without improvement in is cornerbacks.

I don't expect to pick Denver every game this year. The only game I didn't pick Denver was against NE, and I called that one "too close to call". Sure enough, that game went into overtime, so I'll call that a "correct". Tough games still loom on the horizon (Indy and NYGs), but for now, Denver has proven they are for real and I'll stick with them.

Poll

Other than being 6-0, what has been the biggest surprise so far?

Royal returns a kick and a punt for TDs in same game.

186 votes

Doom leads the League in sacks near season half mark.

269 votes

Orton has only 1 INT this year (and that was on a hail mary).

730 votes

1185 votes | Poll has closed

Enemy Flashback Video & Conversation with Pats blogs!

Niko Houllis — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:15:09 -0000

Last time we played the New England Patriots, Chris Simms was our Quarterback, and we were headed to the playoffs. Oh how much has changed in 4 years for the rematch! The Bucs head to Wembley Stadium in London, England to take on the Patriots without out so much as a win to show for themselves. Before we get into our conversation with not just one but TWO Patriots Blogs, Lets take a look at the highlight of that game...

Today we have answers to our questions from not just one, but TWO New England Patriots blogs. Not only SB Nations' David from PatsPulpit.com, but Bruce from www.Patriotsdaily.com as well! We will compare their answers side by side to our panel of author's questions!

BucWild) Did losing Josh McDaniels shake up the coaching staff, or will the team respond in the next few years (positively) like when Charlie Weis left?

David) I think it's a question of Bill O'Brien, the current quarterbacks coach and heir apparent to the OC job, getting comfortable with the role. That and there was a lot of turmoil on offense. Tom Brady's return has been a bit rocky, but Peyton Manning's return in 2008 had the same flavor. I expect things to settle in a bit once the coaching staff and players have some stability with personnel and figure out what plays work with the group of guys on the field.

Bruce) He was a big loss, no doubt. Not only was the the OC, he was also the QB coach, and we saw what he did with Matt Cassel last year. His departure is one of the many things you can put on a list to explain Tom Brady's struggles in the early going this season. One interesting thing that we learned in the week prior to the Denver game was that Bill Belichick and McDaniels both realized that McDaniels was going to be a head coach, sooner probably than later, so last year they each spent a lot of time getting ready for that. Belichick would give McDaniels tips on what to expect as the head coaches and dealing with various issues. McDaniels would give Belichick and Bill O'Brien, the new QB coach, his thoughts, techniques and ideas on being an offensive coordinator. O'Brien isn't the OC, but he's calling the plays this season, which is exactly what McDaniels role was in the year after Weis left.

BucWild) Seems like a different running back is in the backfield on every play. What are their roles and how does the coaching staff manage the rotation?

David) NE has a "backfield-by-committee" ground game out of necessity - we don't have a solid workhorse back. Laurence Maroney was supposed to be that guy, but he's struggling. Currently, I'd consider him a general purpose back. Sammy Morris and falls into this category, but has better hands and can be used in option or checkdown situations. Kevin Faulk is predominantly a third down specialist due to his receiver-like abilities. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the young buck of the group and appears to have all the qualities of a good back and an option guy when needed.

Bruce) With Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris both injured now, there will obviously a bit less of a rotation. I think it's a combination of matchups and trying to avoid wear and tear. With lead back, Morris would be the short-yardage back and fullback, Kevin Faulk the third down back, Laurence Maroney the change of pace back and BenJarvus Green-Ellis the insurance policy. Now it seems like Maroney is going to be the guy, with Green-Ellis spelling him, and Faulk remaining the 3rd down back. The Patriots also do a lot of short passes to receivers like Wes Welker which serves almost the same purpose as the running game.

Niko)You've got the 3 Rings in this decade. Since free agency, no team has won 4 like the Steelers and 49ers did. Do you feel the Pats have cemented themselves as a dynasty, or need 1 more SuperBowl win to lock down the same Status those Steelers and 49ers have?

David) As Tedy Bruschi said when he retired, one more would be nice, but let's not get greedy. ;-) I do feel like one more before Tom Brady retires would certainly quiet the most vocal rivals (Colts fans).

Bruce ) I'd like one more just to be sure. And to shut up the Steelers fans who are trying to make a play for team of the decade.

Niko) What did fans think of Joey Galloway when you got him? What about now?

David) Galloway was cut this past Tuesday prior to the NFL trade deadline. When he joined, us fans were a little skeptical that a guy at his age had something left in the tank. But, in Belichick we trust, so we hoped he'd provide a nice long ball alternative to Randy Moss and help spread the field. Unfortunately, Joey had a tough time picking up the system and never really connected with Brady. Two critical mistakes in redzone situations made him a healthy sit for the last 3 games.

Bruce ) We thought he might be an upgrade over Jabar Gaffney and give the Patriots someone to stretch the field opposite Randy Moss. What we got was someone who couldn't learn the playbook, and wasn't where he was supposed to be on the field at the time he was supposed to be there. A huge disappointment.

Buc'Em Standard) If you could, what Buc or two Bucs would you like to have from our Roster? For fun since its the trade deadline, who would you be willing to give up for him/them?

David) I've always liked Antonio Bryant. He doesn't get a lot of touchdowns, but gets good yardage stats and helps to move the ball. Plus, we could use another look for Brady now that Galloway is gone and rookie WR Julian Edelman has a broken arm. We're pretty deep on the defensive line, so I could see us handing over a Ron Brace or Myron Pryor.

Bruce ) Aqib Talib. Cornerback is seemingly always a position that the Patriots are looking to improve at. This year is a whole lot better than last (Deltha O'Neal, anyone?), but Talib would like nice back there. A trade would probably consist of a draft pick, but if we're talking a baseball-style player for player deal, maybe someone like Laurence Maroney, who has all the potential in the world, but probably needs a fresh start to get his game fully back on track.

Horse Tracks 10/18/09 - A Lazy Sunday in Broncos Land

Douglas A. Lee — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 14:41:39 -0000

DB - Week 6 - Sat: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Motivated for Monday Night - Gray Caldwell
"It is going to be a 60-minute game, and it’s on Monday night," Kyle Orton said. "I don’t think we will have any issue being emotionally ready to play this game."

DPP - Despite bench time, wins please Stokley - Mike Klis
"I'm all about trying to win games," Stokley said. "It doesn't really matter what happens to me. It's a long season. If I play one play or 20 plays, the most important thing is keep winning games."

DPP - Broncos' Ayers slowly, steadily learning NFL game - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Vonnie Holliday faces Tomlinson once more, this time as a Bronco - Anthony Cotton

DPP - Briefs: Lighthearted start of practice is competitive - Lindsay Jones

DPP - McDaniels, Caldwell on brink of history - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Klis: A.J.'s blast rips Chargers

CSG - Broncos are healthy heading into Monday night showdown - Frank Schwab
Anyone remember the calls for Chris Simms after the first PRESEASON game?

AFC West News

SDUT - Once upon a gridiron . . . - Don Norcross

SDUT - First-down weakness on both sides of ball a concern - Kevin Acee

KCS - Losing weight has helped Chiefs’ Dorsey become more effective - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs add tackle Barry Richardson to roster

SFC - Raiders' big days not good ones - Ray Ratto

SFC - Being a punch line isn't much fun - David White

OT - How much longer can Cable dodge ax? - Tim Kawakami

NFL News

NFL - FBI investigated threats against Edwards after alleged incident

NFL - Titans will be without both starting cornerbacks against Patriots

NFL - Browns downgrade Dawson, Heiden

NFL Opinion

NYT - More Roughing Penalties in N.F.L. - Protection or Overkill? - Judy Battista

NYT - Malcolm Gladwell on Concussions, and the Gagliardi Solution

NY - Football, dogfighting, and brain damage - Malcolm Gladwell

PFW - AFC Whispers
"We hear it's going to be difficult for Broncos WR Brandon Stokley, who hasn't caught a pass since Week Two, to get into the receiver rotation with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney ahead of him. He'll play in four-receiver sets but doesn't contribute on special teams, and we're told there's a chance Stokley would be deactivated if a special-teamer were to miss time with an injury."

PFW - NFC Whispers

NFP - Weekend Notes: Game planning the Giants - Matt Bowen

NFP - Sunday at the Post - Mike Lombardi

FOX - Countdown: Running game could be key for Giants - John Czarnecki

Poll

What do YOU plan on doing today?

I'll just watch whatever game looks good

153 votes

I've got my eyes set on a specific game

52 votes

Wait, there's football on when the Broncos don't play?

145 votes

350 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (Week 6, '09)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:56:25 -0000

First, Denver beat the Bengals. Turns out that the Bengals are a pretty good team. Then Denver beat the Browns; no big whoop. Then the Broncos beat the Raiders. Not many of the Raider Nation even bothered to show up for it. Several folks in the media said the Cowboys would put the Broncos in their place. As soon as the Broncos won, those media heads started questioning the Cowboys. Now the hard part of the schedule starts, and the Patriots show up. Yes; Denver bopped their way past the Pats, and folks questioned just how good Brady really is.

Forget about it! Denver is for real, and "proving ourselves" was never the goal. The goal is the AFC West and a playoff berth. The Raiders know more about figure skating than football, and the Chiefs look like they just sold Manhattan for a few beads. That leaves the SD Chargers as the only threat to the Broncos and the playoffs, and this isn't the same team they were last year.

LaDainian Tomlinson at RB? How about the 32nd ranked running game in the NFL. ROLB Shawne Merriman? May never be the same player again after the knee injury. Missing the offensive center and the defense's nose tackle to injury? Priceless.

SD hasn't looked this shaken since the last earthquake. Piece of cake? No, not really. SD is at home on a Monday night, they still have Phillip Rivers, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson. They are also coming off of a much needed bye week, which means rest for injuries and more time to game plan. This is not a game to get too comfortable with.

The SD Offense versus the DEN Defense

What happens when you take the worst running team in the NFL (SD avg per game - 53.8 yards) and match it with the 6th best running defense in the League?

SD has spent years relying on Tomlinson to carry the ball. Heck, the guy can run, catch, throw and block. He's the all-around, real deal of RBs. But this year, nursing a hurt ankle at age 30, Tomlinson is on track for his worst year ever. 1 TD, 1 fumble (lost), 3.5 yards per carry (his longest was only 13), 2 receptions (for a total of 1 yard), and a grand 70 yards to show for the season.

Here is what you need to know about the SD offense.

The running game is bad. Real bad.
The passing game is good. Real good. (295.5 yards per game - 2nd in the NFL).
Rivers likes to throw deep.
To throw deep, he needs time to let the receivers get deep.
Denver's pass rush is monstrously good.
SD's offensive line (from center to left tackle) isn't so hot.
SD's running game isn't going to do much to keep Denver's safeties from the deep field.

What all of this means is that the Chargers have two choices in this game. First, they have to establish a running game. This seems highly unlikely, as the match-up is just too hard to overcome. The second option would be for Rivers to create short route threats to compliment a few deep balls here and there. Enter Antonio Gates.

As always, TE Gates is a favorite target of Rivers. Gates was such a threat, that Denver used to match Bailey against him. SD countered brilliantly by bringing in Chris Chambers (WR) from the Dolphins, giving Gates room to do his thing.

In my mind, SD has three threats in the air. Chambers, Vincent Jackson, and TE Gates. As they've done against other teams this year with threats at TE, Denver will attempt to neutralize the TEs indirectly. Instead of focusing on coverage, Denver will likely go after Rivers, forcing the Chargers to keep their TE in to block. Between CBs Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman, and even Jack Williams (rising in his level of play) and rookie hot shot Alphonso Smith, Denver can cover the WR threat. If the ball gets too deep, legendary safety Brian Dawkins and safety Renaldo Hill (playing very well in his first year with Denver) should stop any deep threats.

Another quick note on the running game. SD is an odd duck, in that (unlike other teams) they prefer to run to the weak side on most plays. With the left side of the OL looking weak, this should limit LT or Darren Sproles.

SD offense - game plan

Can SD run against Denver? I don't think that they can. But if they don't at least make the effort, it can cause headaches for the passing game (and Rivers, who has been getting sacked quite a bit this year). Because SD has good depth at TE (and because they aren't so hot at the outside of the offensive line), and because they face a 3-4 defense (really a 5-2 in my opinion), SD should use a lot of 2 TE looks. To aid with the run, they should use twin TE looks (both TEs to the same side).

From this formation, they can attempt runs with extra protection to one side, or go into quick passes with those TEs. They can also set up screens for Darren Sproles, who is a major threat on STs returns and could be deadly in screen situations.

SD needs to have a credible running game, or at least a consistent, short passing game to set up the vertical passes that Rivers likes. He already faces an incredible Denver secondary, so he'll need to do everything he can to sell the short yardage game.

When passing long, Rivers will need to be in a shotgun formation (the QB further from scrimmage to buy time). The advantage for Rivers here is time to drop back and throw, but the disadvantage is that the defense will clamp down on each player lined up as a receiver. If the OL continues to play poorly, any sacks this far from scrimmage will be hard to overcome.

DEN Defense - game plan

It doesn't get old. Denver needs pressure, pressure, and more pressure. Denver's pressure and penetration is not only the reason that teams have a hard time passing against Denver, but it also causes major disruptions in the run game. With five players on the line (and with even the OLBs being true [former] DEs), Denver's defense presents pass rush and run disruption opportunities on every play. But the SD offense is particularly exposed. With the loss of center Nick Hardwick, the rest of the OL seems to be in chaos.

Denver can play man to man with the SD WRs with no problem, and leave the safeties back for over-coverage. The front five can penetrate, while the two true LBs (both leading the team in tackles) can zone the center for runs or passes over the middle.

The presence of sack-machine Elvis Dumervil is perhaps the biggest threat on the field for Denver's defense. SD will not stop him one on one, but a team can't afford to double him with four other defensive players right on the line.

The DEN Offense versus the SD Defense

What happens when the 27th run defense in the League (SD, giving up 151 yards a game) meets the 5th best run offense in the League (DEN, gaining 139 yards a game)?

Let's give Orton some credit. His QB rating is 97.4, which is slightly better than River's 90.6. Orton's only INT of the year was an end of half hail Mary throw. He played his first four games with Denver wearing a restrictive glove to protect an injured finger, and still performed like a pro. Folks call him a game manager (as if this is a derogatory term), but the correct title for Orton is "winner". Orton has a good arm (yes, the "noodle" moniker was bs). But Orton's best quality is intelligence. He's picked up a complex system very quickly, and adjusts to radical changes in game planning (and the play book) each week. So let's give the guy credit. And then....

Let's run the ball.

SD is hurting on both sides of the ball. Injuries have hurt this team, and the team is off to a slow start from many players who were considered to be play makers. But there is one threat on the field for SD that is a constant, and that is Rivers. To keep Rivers off the field, Denver should use their vaunted running game against a weak run defense. Orton is capable of beating the SD pass defense, and has a lot of weapons. SD, on the other hand, just released a safety on Wed (Clinton Hart), and there has been talk of benching CB Antonio Cromartie (a once rising player). Antoine Cason may be the answer for this team at CB. Meanwhile, Quentin Jammer will face either Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal this week, leaving the rest of the SD DBs to deal with the other WR, plus Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley (not to mention TE threats Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler).

But at least there is potential for hope in the SD secondary. The SD defensive line has looked dreadful, and the LBs have looked ordinary. It could be the decimation of the SD D-line, or it could be the defection of D-line coach Wayne Nunnely from SD to Denver. But the weakness of the SD defense is the front seven, and Denver can run at it.

Buckhalter is back at practice, and should be ready for Monday. Moreno has been looking better and better. Why not score early, then just run the ball down the Chargers' throats? There's nothing like a good running game to take the other team's fans out of a game and to wear down the opposing team (notice how Denver has looked great in the second half? That's endurance conditioning).

DEN Offense - game plan

If there is a game to run the ball, this is it. Keep the other team's biggest threat (Rivers) off the field, and match up a very good running game against a terrible run defense. Focus on running the gut to allow Orton his signature screens and quick hitches to the edges of the field. Nothing fancy here, just good old fashioned smash mouth football.

But when we DO throw the ball, Orton should stick with his bread and butter plays. No need to take chances in this game; just make the high percentage, quick throws to keep the clock going and to limit INTs. Let playmakers like Marshall and Royal make the big plays after the short catch. Against a team that isn't tackling too well, screens with downfield blockers can be deadly.

SD Defense - game plan

This team hasn't proven that they can rush the passer, nor stop the run. They also face a credible air attack from Orton. This is not a good defense.

In such situations, you take away the big plays as best you can and hope that long drives by the opposition will result in a failure to convert or a turn over. SD has good CBs, and shouldn't "waste" them in zone. The CBs may be the best part of this defense. Man the CBs, and deep zone both safeties. Dedicate one LB to manning the Denver RB, and zone the remaing LBs. It is a simplistic plan, and not a good one. But SD doesn't seem to have many options here.

SD likes to strip the ball, but they need to focus on making sound tackles for this game. What they've been doing hasn't been working.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Match-ups

(Team with advantage is in bold and italics)

Denver Offense vs SD Defense

Points - 19.8 (22nd) vs Points - 25.5 (25th)

Yards - 376.8 (6th) vs Yards - 365.8 (26th)

Pass - 237.8 (15th) vs Pass - 214.8 (12th)

Rush - 139 (5th) vs Rush - 151 (27th)

* * *

Denver Defense vs SD Offense

Points - 8.6 (1st) vs 25.2 (10th)

Yards - 252.8 (2nd) vs 349.2 (10th)

Pass - 171.8 (5th) vs 295.5 (2nd)

Rush - 81 (6th) vs 53.8 (32nd)

In summary, SD has advantages in only two areas - passing, and stopping the pass. But those advantages are small in terms of ranking and yards. (Part of the pass stats for SD may be the last quarter of the PITT game, where PITT played prevent and gave up a lot of yards and 21 points). On the other hand, Denver's advantages in other categories are much wider.

Noteworthy is that SD is losing their average game - 25.2 to 25.5 (they have no room for error in their games). Meanwhile, Denver wins their average game 19.8 to 8.6

Denver clobbers SD in running the ball and in defending the run.

Keys to the Game

Denver -

Make this a running game. Denver has a massive advantage running the ball and stopping the run. SD's only chance is Philip Rivers, and perhaps a major ST play. So...
Don't allow Sproles (or anyone else) to be a difference maker on ST.
And most of all - Pressure Rivers early, often, and hard.

San Diego -

If you want your best weapon to have a chance, you had better protect Rivers. Good protection also means you can sneak Gates out to the flats.
SD might not be able to stop the run. But they must keep it in check. Give up a few yards here and there, but don't give up a big play on the ground.
Win the turnover war. Orton may be "due" for an INT, but don't count on it. Instead, make sure you fall on anything a Denver RB or QB fumbles. You'll need those chances. Denver gets their yards in bits and pieces, and a turnover can be devastating. Don't miss any opportunity if a ball hits the ground.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SD has several things going for them. A week of rest, an extra week of prep, a good QB, and home field on a national stage. Denver has a lights out defense, a solid running game, and a mistake free passing game.

While SD won a game against OAK, it was closer than a game against OAK should be. On the other hand, they played tough against PITT, and respectable against BAL in two losses. While they are injured and not playing great football, they look to me like a team that can jump up at any moment and reassert themselves. They have good players all over the team that just don't seem to playing to their potential.

Denver, on the other hand, has beaten good teams in CIN, DAL, and NE, while brushing off CLE and OAK. If anyone wants to question how good DAL and NE are, it is in part due to their losses against DEN. CIN looks like a very good team, and Denver won a game that either would have been a TD reception by the intended receiver or (because it was tipped) a TD reception by a heads up player.

I don't believe in "trap" games. If there is such a concept, it is a fan concept and not a coaching one. Any coach that thinks that any game can be overlooked deserves to lose every game he plays. McDaniels is not the kind of coach to overlook a team. He and DC Nolan know the stakes; this is a division game. So does SD, and I fully expect a team like SD (with their backs against the wall in the AFC West race) to come out swinging. In other words, expect SD to play like SD, and not like how they've played so far.

LT hasn't been LT, but count him out at your peril. Merriman may be hurt and weakened, but if he ever brings his "A game", this is the time. If SD loses this game, they'll probably have to win out the season to get a shot at a playoff spot.

And Denver is done with silencing critics. Those who still think the Broncos are a 3-13 team have been exposed, and only make themselves look more foolish for making excuses for Denver's opponents. Denver is now playing for a good seeding in the post season, and that makes this week's game the most important game they've played so far.

I think Denver is a different team from last year, from top to bottom. We have a QB that doesn't give away games, we have a defense that shuts down anything in their path, and we have a coaching staff that gets the best out of their players week in and out. SD is also different. They were an 8-8 team last year, but cracks seem to be developing further. If SD is going to make a run at glory, this is the game of the season.

For me, I'll take Denver. The match-ups seem to favor Denver strongly, but I won't pick Denver to win big quite yet. I expect a fully loaded and prepared SD team for Monday Night Football, and I expect that there will be big plays both ways. I expect a great game that may overshadow the Saints / Giants game in terms of good play. I expect a memorable game.

Most of all, I expect 6-0 going into the bye.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I knew Denver would be a better team this year. I predicted an 8-8 record, but wrote that Denver would play much better, win or lose. I figured Denver would beat Cincy and CLE, and figured we should win one or two against OAK (nice to beat OAK in OAK). DAL was a toss-up to me during the offseason, but I thought we had a fair shot. Before the season, NE would have been a loss in my book. By the time the game came up, I called it "too close to call". I was right - the game went into overtime.

It is past time to look at what I think of the games going forward, so here it is.

SD - In the reloading season I would have called this 50/50. I think we win in SD.

BAL - Before the season - loss. Now, tough call.

PITT - Before the season - loss to SB champs. Now - win (we can exploit that OL).

WAS - Before - toss up; leans win. Now - win.

SD - Likely win.

NYG - We might be able to go toe to toe. If we do, we are (gasp!) SB contenders. For now, let's say a potential loss.

KC - Win

INDY - Along with NYG, our toughest game on the schedule.

OAK - I'm really trying hard not to laugh out loud.

PHI - This could be a tougher game than we expect.

KC - If we are in the playoffs, we might rest players at this point.

I'll say that at this point our basement should be 10 to 11 games, with 11 to 12 likely. 13 (are you listening Mike Clark?) is a real possibility. More importantly, a post season spot is probable.

Forget about "power rankings" for a moment, and consider the official rankings. According to the NFL's rankings (based on games won and official tie breaks), this is how the top six teams rank -

OFFICIAL NFL TEAM RANKS

1) Your Denver Broncos

2) Colts

3) Vikings

4) Saints

5) Giants

6) Bengals

We've beat number 6, and we still have number 5 and number 2 to go. (By the way, 9-PHI, 10-BAL, 11-DAL, 12-NE, 14 PITT).

We've played, and have left to play, teams in the top half of the League right now. Any wins we get are well-deserved, and every game is good preparation for the post season. Playoffs? PLAYOFFS? That's right Mora, I said it. Denver is going to the playoffs this year. McDaniels is not a coach that allows late season collapses. I'm calling it. Denver qualifies.

Poll

Denver...

Doesn't make playoffs

47 votes

In as a wild card or division champion

544 votes

Along with another AFC team, gets a bye in the WC round

584 votes

1175 votes | Poll has closed

Does Tom Brady have the right targets?

MaPatsFan — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 00:21:42 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Joey Galloway points to where he now sits on game day.

Browse more photos »

There are many moving parts to the offense this year. The touchstone seems to be Tom Brady. If he equals Peyton Manning's 4-4 of 2008, I will declare Brady the better quarterback. Manning missed time during the preseason while recovering from bursa sac surgery. Tom Brady missed A WHOLE YEAR recovering from a torn ACL and MCL! To recover from that AND perform on the field is a testament to a guaranteed legend. Tom's was the harder recovery. That can't be argued.

Another factor in the offense? The running game was going gangbusters. Everything was firing on all cylinders and then...BOOM! Our leading rusher, Fast Freddy Taylor, blows an ankle. Back to the Dancing El Mo, Laurence Maroney. At least we have Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Can you say backfield-by-committee? I knew you could.

Everyone is looking for 2007. Or, at the very least, they WERE at the beginning of the season. Tom's back, so this shouldn't be a problem, right? Everything's in place to make another run for it, right? Wrong. Watch Tom in the Denver game. After a few failed attempts to get Randy the ball, he consistently looks for Wes. What's the problem with that? The little engine that can is going to get worn out; he's going to get hammered on a regular basis. And defenses will figure out that if you blanket Randy and Wes Welker, you've taken away Brady's weapons.

Joey Galloway, for all intents and purposes, is a bust. I feel bad for the man because he has to walk into the locker room every day, knowing he's not contributing. He has to travel with the team and not suit up on gameday. That's gotta hurt. Compassion is called for in these situations. Unfortunately, this is a cold, heartless business and us fans are no less heartless. Drop after drop, disconnect after disconnect, and we move on.

Unfortunately, it's not all Galloway. He just happens to be the poster child for an overall lack of on field communication. Take a pass to Wes Welker in the Denver game which appeared to be thrown at his ankles. Brady later went on to explain he was thinking Wes was running one route when Wes made an adjustment based on the coverage he saw. Is it truly only Galloway who's having issues?

The difference between this passing offense and that of 2007 is other receivers. Don't get me wrong. Julian Edelman is no slouch and has a bright future with this team. But he's not Donte Stallworth and he's not Jabar Gaffney. Neither Donte nor Jabar are #1 or #2 guys. On a good day, they're solid #3's. Which is exactly why we were so successful in 2007. Many more capable targets.

When either Randy or Wes were blanketed with coverage, which often happened towards the end of the year, Brady knew he had a high percentage third and fourth look. Teams who didn't respect that got burned. A perfect example of this was the 2007 Ravens game, when Jabar made a toenail scraper of a catch in the fourth quarter to preserve the perfect regular season. After Wes and Randy, there's simply not a lot of wide receiver talent. Sam Aiken is very capable and I get stoked when he catches a good ball, but who else is there...NOW? Julian Edleman is a long-term prospect as is Terrence Nunn and Brandon Tate. Shun White? He owes the government some years of active duty for his Naval Academy education.

We lack a serious third and fourth option for Wonderboy. On 98.5's Felger and Mazz show, a caller asked, "Do you think T.O. would be a good option?" Wait...give it 30 seconds. Now, I have written in the past that I think T.O. is toxic. He's at singer/starlet diva high maintenance level. Maybe even worse than Mariah Carey. But the dude has skills. I'm not lobbying for it, but I'm just saying...