SB Nation - Brady Quinn

Chris Henry - Rest In Peace

PSTIM1 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:12:29 -0000

We at Project Franchise are saddened to learn of the death of Chris Henry, from everything we've heard he had been working hard in the last couple of years to make positive changes in his life. Does anybody have the inside scoop on what actually happened - was he pushed out of the truck? Did he jump or slip? We all know this story is far from over, however or whatever happened we wish his family, friends and Bengal Nation the best at this tragic time.

Nate Burleson, Mike Holmgren and John Morgan Walk into an Interview

John Morgan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:01:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Mike Holmgren will make a decision before Christmas. His choice is between the Cleveland Browns, who have expressed interest, and the Seattle Seahawks, who are assumed to be interested.

Browse more photos »

Nate Burleson suffered a high ankle sprain during Sunday's game against the Houston Texans. Seattle initially signed Burleson to a poison pill contract comparable to Steve Hutchinson's. It was a sandbox moment for Tim Ruskell. A chance to kick down the kid's castle that had kicked down his. Seattle later restructured that contract and included a voidable year in 2010.

There's a lot to like about Burleson. If he recovers like many/most athletes post-ACL replacement, he should improve his agility into next year, and be 99% the player he was before the injury by 2010. That lost agility is conspicuous on returns, and, recently, during an end-around attempt against the Texans. Burleson lacks the ability to run angles and curves at a high speed like DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan and, once upon a time, Nate Burleson. Burleson should recover some bendy-quicks, but not enough to be re-signed.

What he'll gain back through recovery will soon thereafter be lost because of age. Burleson turns 29 August of 2010. He's hardly old, be he is old enough to be mismatched with a rebuilding team. He also isn't very good.

Burleson rewards you with flash and kills you with details. He is notorious for quitting routes, deeking blocks and alternating good grabs with maddening drops. Before Greg Knapp, Burleson was an overpriced second receiver poorly fit to Mike Holmgren's system. Burleson appears better fit to Knapp's looser style, but he isn't producing at a much higher level. Despite an increase in targets and a resulting increase in yards, Burleson is still pretty close to a league average receiver.

The short-term impact of the injury is an opening for Deion Branch and Deon Butler. Branch has been phased out this season. It is difficult to be sure if Branch is worse or just less involved. He said before the season started that his knee would never be the same. As routine as ligament replacement is in the modern NFL, some players still do not respond well to the procedure, and it's possible Branch left something on the operating table.

Butler is more interesting, both because he is younger and faster, and because he is free of the controversial origin story. He also might not be much of a prospect. He's built like DeSean Jackson but plays like Darrell Jackson, and though he is quick into and out of his short cuts, it's difficult to see Butler making a career snatching passes in traffic; taking tackles like Bobby Engram.

The other news of the day involves retired head coach Mike Holmgren. Cleveland is hosting Holmgren and attempting to entice him into taking on a head of football operations position. It's a good fit for Holmgren. The team has a young, talented offensive line, a headcase quarterback with SnapOn tools, some young defensive talent and a lot of cap space and draft picks to invest towards a rebuild. Despite inferior leadership, the Browns are closer to contention than Seattle, and farther along in their rebuild. Brady Quinn is a presumptive bust, but a young 25. Hasselbeck did not make a regular season start until he was 26. Brett Favre was having his first great season as a pro at 25. He commemorated his age-24 season with a league worst 24 picks. The idea of a quarterback guru might be farcical, but Browns owner Randy Lerner didn't earn his fortune with smart business decisions. He inherited it from his father.

Holmgren has announced he wants to decide his destination before Christmas. That puts pressure on the Seahawks organization, or is intended to. It's entirely possible Seattle has no interest in Holmgren. I do not think that Holmgren was or will be a terrible GM, but that's a pretty low standard for expectations. I still hold out hope that the Seahawks can hire the NFL's first Billy Beane-like executive. There are numerous angles a smart strategist could exploit in the NFL. A savvy, young, creative and ambitious general manager could free Seattle from the orthodox approach of systems and windows and trend-following, and build the Seahawks into next decade's Red Sox.

Shoot, I'll volunteer myself and promise a return to the playoffs by 2011. I've made a lifetime out of irreverence. I'm sure it reads as ludicrous boasting by an armchair GM, but I am equally sure an outsider not indoctrinated in the league's procedures and methods could hand some of these good old boys their ass. And though it won't be me, I do hope it is somebody, somebody that's not Bill Polian's, by way of Rich McKay, by way of Ozzie Newsome, regional scout and Director of Doing Things the Same Way They've Always Been Done.

Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 14

mgrex03 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 05:18:02 -0000

This week in the Power Rankings, I've added a new way to look at how well teams have played this year: Consistency. It gives a pretty good look at how a team have played this year, and what you can expect the last 4 weeks on the year. I'll talk about what I found above the fold, but the full rankings will be at the bottom of the post:

The Colts, unsurprisingly, are the most consistent team in the league, followed by the Eagles and Cowboys. Anyone who is surprised by this clearly hasn't watched the Colts play this year. Saints? 20th.
This week's opponent, the Broncos, are the least consistent team in the NFL. In their 8 wins, they've had 7 in the top 101 games of the season, and the 8th was in the top 150. In their 4 losses? 306, 359, 351, and 353 (out of 384). Yikes. When they are on they are pretty good; when they are off, they really are bad.
If you look at non-defense adjusted numbers, the most consistent team is the Redskins. I said this measures consistency, not "goodness".

After the jump you'll see the full Power Rankings, Schedule Strength (Past and Future), and the Consistency Rankings...

Power Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	3	5	1	4	5	1
Patriots	2	12	4	2	11	2
Colts	1	20	5	1	15	3
Vikings	5	6	3	5	9	4
Packers	8	1	2	9	2	5
Bengals	12	3	6	13	8	6
Ravens	15	10	11	15	7	7
Steelers	6	11	7	7	18	8
Giants	11	17	13	12	12	9
Eagles	16	4	8	17	4	10
Cowboys	7	13	9	8	22	11
Cardinals	17	9	12	16	10	12
Dolphins	14	22	17	10	21	13
Broncos	18	7	14	20	6	14
Jets	22	2	16	24	1	15
Texans	13	18	15	14	16	16
Chargers	4	24	10	3	31	17
Redskins	19	16	18	18	17	18
Falcons	9	29	20	6	29	19
Jaguars	10	25	19	11	28	20
Titans	20	28	24	19	24	21
49ers	27	8	22	27	3	22
Seahawks	21	14	21	26	13	23
Panthers	24	19	23	23	19	24
Bears	23	21	25	21	23	25
Bills	29	15	26	29	14	26
Lions	26	31	29	25	27	27
Buccaneers	28	27	30	28	25	28
Chiefs	30	23	27	30	20	29
Rams	25	30	28	22	32	30
Raiders	32	26	31	32	26	31
Browns	31	32	32	31	30	32

Some thoughts:

The Colts are ranked #3 this week in the Power Rankings, which includes the #1 offense and the #15 defense. The defense needs to play well the rest of the season to leap frog the two teams ahead of them.
Even with the Patriots losing twice in a row, statistically they didn't look that bad, maintaining the #2 spot in the rankings. Not playing well this week will not be so kind to them.
Even though the Chargers have won 7 games in a row, they haven't been all that impressive doing it, especially defensively, ranking 31st in the league. That's what happens when you let Brady Quinn throw 3 TD passes against you. I know they have been the nemesis of the Colts the past 2 years, but they are the worst team they will win a division.

Schedule Strength:

Team	Schedule Strength
	Past			Future
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Titans	12	1	1	31	13	25
Buccaneers	6	2	2	8	11	8
Browns	2	4	3	32	28	32
Patriots	1	13	4	15	23	24
Dolphins	3	8	5	22	7	13
Lions	9	5	6	7	25	20
Ravens	17	3	7	30	30	31
Falcons	4	16	8	1	31	18
Rams	10	14	9	11	22	23
Colts	14	11	10	3	29	21
Raiders	15	12	11	19	27	28
Jets	22	10	12	25	4	10
Bills	7	18	13	29	2	9
49ers	28	7	14	28	21	26
Panthers	16	17	15	4	1	1
Texans	13	19	16	21	12	17
Broncos	30	6	17	24	24	27
Giants	27	15	18	2	9	3
Chiefs	31	9	19	16	32	30
Bears	19	21	20	10	6	4
Cardinals	24	22	21	20	26	29
Saints	20	24	22	23	14	22
Seahawks	29	20	23	14	20	16
Redskins	21	25	24	26	8	14
Jaguars	5	30	25	27	5	11
Cowboys	8	31	26	12	3	2
Bengals	23	27	27	13	15	12
Vikings	18	29	28	5	17	7
Steelers	25	28	29	18	19	19
Packers	26	26	30	17	18	15
Eagles	32	23	31	6	16	5
Chargers	11	32	32	9	10	6

A couple thoughts here:

The Colts have played the 10th toughest schedule so far, making their 12-0 record that much more impressive. The Patriots are the only team with a tougher schedule that even has a winning record, and they are 7-5.
Let's look at the Colts Week 14 opponent, the Broncos. Their offense has faced a very easy schedule (3rd easiest), but their defense has faced a very tough schedule (6th toughest). Their offense should get tested this week against an underrated Colts defense.
The Colts' future schedule looks to be lopsided, but overall manageable: Facing very good defenses, and not very good offenses. With Peyton Manning under center, I'll take that.
The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Chargers all have tough finishing schedules, so making the playoffs isn't a sure thing for any of these teams, who have relatively easy schedules up to this point.

Consistency Rankings:

Team	Consistency
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Colts	1	11	2	1	13	1
Eagles	12	15	3	10	3	2
Cowboys	5	2	6	2	8	3
Chiefs	6	25	20	6	18	4
49ers	3	23	16	3	24	5
Panthers	27	7	4	21	1	6
Falcons	7	14	15	8	15	7
Lions	23	1	7	18	6	8
Buccaneers	17	3	14	20	12	9
Bears	10	31	22	7	31	10
Cardinals	24	13	11	19	25	11
Vikings	4	10	9	11	7	12
Texans	11	22	17	15	21	13
Rams	20	9	10	28	2	14
Ravens	29	20	27	23	4	15
Redskins	19	5	1	25	5	16
Browns	30	17	18	26	22	17
Steelers	15	6	8	16	23	18
Packers	13	19	24	14	17	19
Saints	2	16	5	5	26	20
Dolphins	25	12	13	30	19	21
Chargers	9	27	23	9	28	22
Bills	28	18	21	29	9	23
Raiders	16	26	19	17	30	24
Seahawks	22	24	28	12	14	25
Jets	32	28	30	31	27	26
Patriots	8	32	25	4	32	27
Giants	18	30	31	13	29	28
Titans	31	21	29	32	16	29
Jaguars	21	8	26	24	10	30
Bengals	14	4	12	27	11	31
Broncos	26	29	32	22	20	32

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 3

John Morgan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

In which Seattle signs Jason Campbell to outperform Matt Hasselbeck and maybe he does.

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I hope Mike Holmgren signs with Cleveland. I have selfish interest, namely Seattle not re-signing Holmgren, but I have more noble interests as well. Cleveland has one of the youngest, most talented offensive lines in the NFL. It starts Joe Thomas at left tackle, Eric Steinbach at left guard and Alex Mack at center. Right guard Hank Fraley and right tackle John St. Clair are interchangeable organizational soldier types. It doesn't have great skill position talent, but that's where Holmgren shines. He finds scheme appropriate players that can excel behind a dominant offensive line. Holmgren is also an expert at developing young quarterbacks.

Why start with a tangent? In this scenario, Seattle ditches Matt Hasselbeck and signs free agent Jason Campbell. Tim Ruskell is out and his departure hints at a potential rebuild, but if Seattle can win some down the stretch, and especially if Seattle can win some down the stretch because of its Ruskell built defense, the Seahawks might adapt certain Ruskell ideals even without Ruskell.

Ruskell was risk adverse. He had a narrow definition of "his guy". His aversion to risk may have served him well, but his narrow definition did not. Consider Deon Butler. Ruskell traded into the third round to select Butler because Butler was "his guy". Butler dripped Ruskell: Four-year starter at a major conference powerhouse, undersized but fast, coachable, hard working and quietly productive. Ruskell conflated "his guy" with risk aversion and overpaid for a risky player. Despite his track record and accolades, Butler could bust because he is overmatched by NFL competition.

Ruskell spent big to get his guy, but his guy was never less risky than Juaquin Iglesias, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie or Johnny Knox - the six receivers selected after Butler. And only Iglesias has underperformed Butler. Ruskell projected his internal bias on the players he drafted. It rarely conflicted with his risk aversion, but when it did, it often spelled failure.

Campbell is a prime target for any risk adverse general manager. His connections to Auburn's unbeaten season might have spoken to Ruskell's personal bias, but his standing as a young, established NFL quarterback speaks to rational roster construction. Campbell has the tools of an NFL quarterback - arm strength, size, mobility - and those tools are NFL tested. He has adapted to multiple playbooks and played near league average football on some very poorly constructed offenses. As we've seen in Chicago and Denver, the quarterback may be the center and most essential part of any NFL offense, but it is not more important than the other ten men that take the field.

This Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Seattle trades or cuts Hasselbeck. It wishes him well, gives lip service to rebuilding and is satisfied to see him sign with Cleveland. Hasselbeck joins muscle milk buddy Brady Quinn and assumes the Trent Dilfer role.

Walter Jones retires.

Seattle cuts Patrick Kerney, Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace.

That gives the Seahawks money to burn. Seattle signs Campbell to a frontloaded contract with a third-year buyout clause. Campbell is playing through the last year of his rookie contract and though he's rich, he's not quarterback rich. Seattle buys maneuverability and Campbell's services by stacking his 2010 salary with zeroes.

Seattle could still be a player in free agency after signing Campbell. It will attempt to fill holes and free itself to draft best available talent throughout the draft.

Signing Campbell and cutting dead weight frees Seattle to make a big splash in the NFL draft. It has money to afford another early first round prospect and the picks to trade up. It could take a centerpiece player on defense like Ndamukong Suh. By releasing Hasselbeck and signing Campbell, the burden falls off the offense. Seattle buys itself time. If Campbell struggles in Seattle's still wrecked 2010 offense, he's young and can be released. Campbell has a bad reputation. He hasn't earned Seahawks fan loyalty and we are unlikely to experience the same kind of revulsion and outrage watching him battered to bones as we do watching Hasselbeck torn asunder.

Campbell is signed as a stopgap+. The Seahawks compliment the signing with a project quarterback selected sometime in 2010's epic quarterback draft. A looming correction to the onerous rookie pay scale is encouraging players to declare, and while the draft lacks a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning, it might be the deepest quarterback draft in modern history. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Sean Canfield, Ryan Mallett, Dan LeFevour, Pat Devlin and Tony Pike will all likely fall deep into the second day. Seattle will have an established starter for 2010 to test its system and offense, and a talented young quarterback developing behind the scenes.

How it works: Seattle successfully moves into the top of the draft and selects a once in a generation defensive talent. That helps push Seattle's cheap, young and talented, but by no means dominant, defense from potential to production. The team is not a contender again in 2010, but it's close.

Campbell outperforms Hasselbeck. He's younger and healthier and continues to play like a league average quarterback. Campbell could also breakout. Seattle is set for either possibility. It builds its offense towards the future by continuing Ruskell's habit of drafting late and mid-round offensive talent and seeing who shakes out. The major rebuild will wait until next offseason. 2010 is about seeing what they have and what they need, something a diminished Hasselbeck has made difficult to impossible this season.

The young defense provides excitement and gives the team a direction and identity. Campbell's arm opens the run game and Seattle executes the grind and smother attack Jim Mora and Greg Knapp seek. The team takes a flier on another young back (or two) and someone sticks, filling out a balanced and productive if unspectacular committee of backs. It's Ground Chuck all over again.

How it fails: Seattle cuts Hasselbeck but doesn't sign Campbell, or Seattle retains Hasselbeck and projects to have one of the worst offenses in football in 2010, or Seattle signs Campbell but Campbell performs no better than Hasselbeck and Seattle's young quarterback is prematurely forced into action. The meat of this is that Seattle does not spend enough on its offense and that offense again undermines the defense.

Contrarily, the defense never steps up. It continues to stifle the run but still cannot stop the pass. Seattle's defensive savior is a rookie and like Aaron Curry, more potential than player. The defense is average, but no better and as the offense putters towards the bottom of the league, the not-good-enough defense shoulders the consequences. Seattle changes the face of its failures but not its failures and what little can be salvaged from Ruskell's roster is older, more expensive and closer to free agency. Campbell is signed to stave off a full rebuild and does. He plays two seasons of league average football and is cleared when Seattle must clean house in 2012.

Pregame Zone Blitz: Steelers at Browns

ncoolong — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:35:57 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

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"You play. To win. The game. Hello??"

-Herm Edwards

"Playoffs?? You kiddin' me??"

-Jim Mora

"I think it's appropriate at this point to acknowledge we have an undesirable pattern of behavior, which produces a series of outcomes that are not what we're looking for."

-Mike Tomlin.

Three coaches. Three separate expressions of frustration. Only one of them is still a coach.

This is no longer about the playoffs, or title defenses. It's very simply about fixing what's wrong. It needs to be fixed for no other reason than the fact it needs to be fixed. No fan is giving up on anything, we're with our team until there isn't another game on the schedule.

We can't clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight anyway, so I'm gonna enjoy a Primetime game against a divisional opponent for what it is, and not worry about the disaster this season has become.

We've beaten Cleveland 12 straight. That streak doesn't have to end because we're 6-6.

Here's what our opponents are saying.

Opponent Web Sites/Forums

A cutesy story about lifelong Browns fan Brady Quinn getting his shot against Pittsburgh

Ryan Kelsey of Dawgs By Nature says Cleveland hates the Steelers.

So does this guy. Interesting concept, though, which Steeler do Browns fans hate the most?

Sort of older news, but an interesting thought nonetheless; Parcells to Cleveland.

Last Game

The universe seems to be sending me clear summaries of how I'm feeling after recent Steelers games. My wife was throwing up in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs game. Now, as I sat in my two-wheel drive sled, fuming mad, "Glory Days" by Bruce Springsteen came on the radio.

"...and I hope when I get older I don't sit ‘round talkin' ‘bout it, but I probably will. Just sittin' back, tryin' to recapture a little of the glory of...but then time slips away, leaves you with nuthin' mister, but, boring stories of Glory Days."

That pretty much wraps it up for the PZB. Resignation takes over for frustration. We just lost to the Raiders, which is as close to the modern definition of a non-playoff team as it gets. The Raiders haven't beaten a team that's gone on to the playoffs that year since they defeated Washington 16-13 in Week 11 of the 2005 season.

It doesn't seem that streak is in jeopardy now, either. I'm going to stick with the Glory Days, though. I'm going to remember last year's team, and to an extent, the 2007 team. Maybe we don't win again, and Pregame Zone Blitz turns into Pre-Draft Zone Blitz. Maybe we go 4-0 in our final four games, squeak into the playoffs, and make some noise a la 2005.

Maybe. Probably be a good idea for the team to just concentrate on winning in a short week on the road against a quietly improving Browns team. Make no mistake, though, the stars are aligned for a strong Browns showing tonight. Not that the Steelers have the luxury of this anyway, but this isn't an opponent to overlook.

Opponent Spotlight: QB Brady Quinn

Speaking of improvement...Quinn led Cleveland's offense to just 35 points in his first five games this season. In his last three, they've scored 66 points, and he's thrown 8 touchdown passes to five INTs.

His 45 attempts last week in San Diego were a little less than half than the amount of attempts he logged in his first two seasons in the league, and it marked the fourth consecutive game his attempts increased. Granted, the Browns have only one once when Quinn starts, it hasn't seemed as if Cleveland's defense has put together a winning effort in some of Quinn's best games.

Detroit wasted his brilliant 304 yard, 4-TD performance, edging out the Browns 38-37 in Week 11. Or maybe it was his defense. The Browns are in the bottom five of all major team defensive statistical categories, but more than anything, they're surrendering over 25 points per game.

Judging by Quinn's improvement over the past few games, and Pittsburgh's continued struggles in the secondary, the Browns will likely rest the vast majority of their game plan on Quinn's shoulders. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see him attack the corners (like everyone else during Pittsburgh's four game slide), particularly with rookies Joe Burnett and/or Keenan Lewis likely to see an increased role.

Quinn hasn't shown a ton so far in regards to deeper passing efficiency, but Cleveland can control the clock and keep their exploitable defense from being abused by keeping it short and simple for Quinn, and rely on the Steelers' recent fourth-quarter woes to pick up their first win over their division "rival" since 2003.

He'll always have this, though...

Steelers Spotlight: WR Limas Sweed

This really seems to be a do-or-die game for Sweed, donnit? With Ward's hamstring injury likely to hamper him, Sweed will get looks in the Steelers' base offense, and with Cleveland's secondary resembling an average junior varsity squad in both size and ability, Sweed's going to get possession routes called for him. He'll likely get deep routes called for him.

If it's not too much trouble, could someone in the huddle please tell him to catch the ball?

Santonio Holmes has become Pittsburgh's go-to receiver in stretches over the season. A big reason for that is Ward's ability to let the defense know he's still there - particularly early in the game. Pittsburgh has been counting on that spark out of the flanker position all year, and they've gotten it.

It's Sweed's chance to step up. If he's able to get into a groove and patiently work the zone the way Ward does, QB Ben Roethlisberger will see him - he's used to looking to the flanker on first and second downs. It will be Sweed's ability to draw attention away from Holmes that will have the largest impact on the Steelers' passing game.

Make no mistake, they are a pass-to-set-up-the-run-and-pass team now. Rashard Mendenhall started off well last week against Oakland, then barely saw the ball in the second quarter.

If Sweed gets hot, it could be his breakout game. If he drops more passes, it could be the beginning of the end for him.

I See You

I see you, Santonio Holmes, and not just because of your career-high 149 yards, or the fact you're about to pass the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in your career.

Ok, a lot of it is that.

But still, you've typically stepped back in this point of the season, but you are taking over the title of "Go-To-Guy" during a very poor streak of team performance. Your effort is contagious, too. If you hadn't previously shown all-out effort in blocking for your fellow wide receivers, perhaps Mike Wallace doesn't get down field to level a would-be tackler on your big reception against Oakland.

As far as the stats go, you've scored in your past two games, but haven't had less than 74 yards in your last five games. You're one of two receivers in the league to have over 15 yards per catch along with 50 first downs. The other guy is a Patriot named Moss.

Considering you're on pace for over 80 catches and over 1,300 yards going into tonight's game, you may be hearing talk of you challenging Yancey Thigpen's 12-year old single-season receiving record of 1,395.

You seem to be hitting your stride. We can See that, ‘Tone.

Key Stats

Pittsburgh has beaten Cleveland 12 straight times. The last time the Steelers lost to the Browns was in Week 5 of 2003, in the middle of the last time the Steelers lost five straight games.
Browns QB Brady Quinn has gone 126 pass attempts without throwing an INT.
Pittsburgh hasn't earned an interception in 128 straight passes against them (since Week 9 at Denver).
In the fourth quarter of Pittsburgh's previous four games, its defense has surrendered 513 yards and 37 points (0-4).
Quinn has seven TDs and zero INTs in his past three games.
WR Santonio Holmes has 987 receiving yards. Hines Ward has 922, giving them 1,909 yards combined. Ward and Plaxico Burress combined for 2,654 yards in 2002.

Quick Hitters

No Brainer? Buccaneers coach Raheem Morris, responding to a question about whether he would take a cautious approach with KR Clifton Smith's second concussion this season: "That's a no-brainer." Couldn't come up with a better phrase than that, coach? Smith was placed on the IR as a result of his injury.

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Steelers vs. the Browns II

Ryan Kelsey — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:16:43 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Can Josh Cribbs and the cold weather lead the Browns to an upset?(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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We hate the Steelers. No doubt about it. With a big upset, we could all-but-kill our nemesis' chances at defending their title. Is it possible? Amongst Browns fans, there is a general feel of optimism going into this game. It may be misplaced, but it is not completely without reason. Namely:

1.) They are struggling. They have lost 4 straight. Including games at home to the overrated Bengals and the terrible Raiders and on the road to the average Ravens and really horrible Chiefs. They've battled injuries on both sides of the ball, locker room divisions, and pressure from fans and media. And they haven't handled any of it well. Their defense is filled with questions and their offense isn't scoring. On the other hand, they have lost these four games by a combined 15 points, so maybe a little bad luck is in there

2.) We are playing offense. In two of the last three games, our offense has looked like it belongs in the NFL. Quinn is in the midst of his longest stretch as a starter and looks more and more competent and comfortable (um, 7 TD and 0 INT in the last 3 games?!).

3.) Variables. We are still the underdog (currently, we are 10 point underdogs- according to sportsbook.com). And underdogs need variables. Things like- a home game, on a very short week, at night, historical rivalry, in terribly cold (19, wind chill 0), windy (31 MPH + whatever extra off the lake) and wet (70% chance of snow) weather. Also, injuries. You know that the Browns have been ravaged by injuries, but the Steelers are struggling too. Troy Polamalu is out, William Gay and Hines Ward are questionable. And even though the Browns have a bunch of injuries, it has lead to some surprises and solid play from guys we don't have much information on. (e.g., Moore, Roth, Trusnik, Adams, Rubin)

~~I'll still go through some of the numbers, but not in as much detail as normal. Partially because I don't have as much time (damn short week) and partially because~~ I don't think these numbers mean much of anything given the above 3 factors.

As always, the numbers are all thanks to Football Outsiders.

When the Steelers have the ball

I was surprised to learn that the Steelers are currently ranked 9th in Offensive Efficiency by DVOA (17.3%). I was not surprised to learn that the Browns rank dead last in Defensive Efficiency (23.0%)- dropping two spots after the Chargers torched us for 30 points.

The Steelers are very good in the pass game (9th at 37.9% in DVOA) and very average in the run game (16th at 1.6%). The pass game is anchored by two of the least favorite Pittsburghers: my vote, Ohio's least favorite son, Ben Roethlisberger (9th in both DYAR and DVOA of all qualifying QBs) and Dirty Hines Ward (9th in both DYAR and DVOA of all qualifying WRs). Ward catching 71% of all passes thrown his way is pretty impressive. But that hamstring is going to be very difficult to warm up tomorrow. Santonio Holmes (15.3% DVOA), Heath Miller (15.8%) and Mike Wallace (18.4% DVOA) are also real good options. And while the Browns are actually good at limiting #2 WRs (-7.7% DVOA- that's better than average!!! 12th in the league), we are worst in the league against TEs (See what Antonio Gates did to us last week) and really bad against #1 WRs.

The Steelers usually give up a lot of sacks, because their line isn't very good and Roethlisberger holds on to the ball as long as any quarterback I've ever seen. This year they are 24th in the league, giving up sacks on 7.4% of all drop backs. The Browns rank 17th in the league, sacking the QB on 6.3% of opponent drop backs.

The Browns' defense against the run is about 10% worse than average, 29th in the league. Which is blah enough. But with all the injuries, especially to Shaun Rogers, we are probably worse than that. Not good considering the wind and snow and cold will likely force more running than normal. The mediocre running game of Pittsburgh is lead by the mediocre Rashard Mendenhall (19th in the league at 4.5% DVOA). Mewelde Moore (-19.5%) and Not So Fast Anymore But Still Faster Than Me Willie Parker (-26.6%) are having pitiful seasons.

When the Browns have the Ball

The juggernaut that is the Browns Offense has juggernauted all the way up to 28th in overall efficiency. That's up 3 spots from last week. We now are a more efficient offense over the course of this season than the Chicago Bears. Wow. Before that Detroit game this didn't seem even close to possible. The Browns rank 30th in pass efficiency as a team and 23rd in run efficiency. Even with the Steelers' recent struggles, they are still a very good defense, ranking 13th against the pass and 6th against the run in DVOA- good for 10th overall. But before you get too scared, they were ranked 6th before former ~~bum off the street during the awful 08 Browns Season~~ Browns legend Bruce Gradkowski torched them last just three days ago.* The Steelers miss Polamalu. And they, generally, are not playing well in the secondary.

*Seriously, Gradkowski had the career day of all career days. He passed for 308 yards (on 20-33 passing), 3 TDs (0 INTs), and a 121.8 QB rating. Not only were each of those numbers career highs, but he has never come close to a day like that in 24 other games in the league. The last time he faced the Steelers, as the Browns starter in Week 17 last season, his rating was 1.0. That isn't a typo. 1.0. Or 9.5 points WORSE than Derek Anderson's worst game in his career- also, DA's most recent.

Further emphasizing the struggles of the secondary, the Steelers are below average against every type of receiver, except running backs (usually covered by linebackers)- they rank 8th against throws to RBs. So if Quinn is going to keep having success through the air, it probably won't be to Harrison/Jennings/Vickers this week. Quinn is moving up the QB standings rapidly. He is 28th now in both DYAR and DVOA. And that is despite not having a receiver in the top 75 in DYAR or DVOA.

The Browns running game has benefited from variety. They get good contributions from Brady Quinn's scrambling, Josh Cribbs in the wildcat- both handing off and keeping, and reverses to Cribbs. So while Chris Jennings and Jerome Harrison aren't very good, their improving efforts with the (sometimes misplaced, and usually not frequent enough) creativity from other parts of the run game result in a decent unit. Again, this is going to be even more important because of the conditions. Each team will have plenty of runs. I won't mind seeing the wildcat a HUGE number of times. Anything less than 10 plays from that formation would be a disappointment in my mind.

Special Teams

We're number 1!! After several weeks in the 2 spot behind Minnesota, the Browns have taken over the top spot in overall special teams efficiency at 7.0% DVOA. The Browns have the #1 punt return team and the #5 kick return team. They are above average in each other phase of special teams. The Steelers are 31st in special teams overall, mainly because they are -30.6% in DVOA on kick coverage! That is an absurd variance from average for any special teams unit. In fact, only one other special teams unit is more than 15% from league average in either direction (Green Bay is -16% on punt coverage). Think about this. They are 30% worse than league average on kicking off. No team in the last 5 seasons has been 30% worse than average at any single part of special teams. (Only the Browns 2007 kick off unit has been 30% BETTER than league average). And only 3 times has any part of any teams' special teams been ranked more than 20% worse than average. We aren't just talking historically bad,this might be THE reason the Steelers are .500 against a weak schedule, despite having a top 10 offense and top 10 defense.

Special Teams is another unit that will be affected heavily by the weather. Again, variables. Good for the underdog. Phil Dawson seems to do well on bad fields, and while he has tired in past seasons late in the year, he should be fresh this year as he missed much of the first half due to injury. Josh Reed also has had success in inclement kicking conditions, given that he plays 8 games a year on the mush that is the Heinz Field "grass".

Conclusions and Questions

Like I said, this one is all about variables, not really the stats. Still, we need to have a sound game plan to maximize our chances at winning and salvaging some very good feelings for a very rough season. A win wouldn't erase everything, but its something the players, coaches, what exists of the front office, and the fans would feel very good about.

Three questions that will determine the outcome:

1. Will the weather effectively hide our defensive injuries and struggles?

2. Will the Steelers special teams continue to let them down- especially the kick coverage unit?

3. Can Brady Quinn exploit a struggling secondary, or if the weather is too bad, can he continue to avoid turnovers?

With a giant assist to Mother Nature and the ghosts of past Browns teams, I think we finally will avoid losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers!

Browns 13

Steelers 13

Browns Border on "Respectability" in 30-23 Loss to Chargers

Chris Pokorny — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:14:39 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

11 days ago: San Diego Chargers fullback Mike Tolbert (35) dives into the end zone in front of Cleveland Browns safety Abram Elam (26) on a 66-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

Browse more photos »

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (9-3)	WEEK 13	CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-11)
	VS.
30		23

Sure, I could lecture the defense on how pathetic it was to give up a 66-yard touchdown pass, mostly via the catch-and-run type. Or, I could complain that despite the amount of time our defenders had to adjust to the jump balls thrown by Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates always came down with them. It wouldn't be fair to complain about our defense though, as the unit is barely representative of the one that started the season. From the first week, I believe only Eric Wright, Abram Elam, and Kamerion Wimbley are healthy enough to stay at their positions.

What bordered on respectability was the play of the offense. Although we only scored seven points in the first three quarters, we had several "threatening drives," which shows progress compared to the numerous three and outs we've been accustomed to.

Let's get to the full review of the game, starting with the goat of the game...

WEEK 13 - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS (COMPLETE GAME REVIEW)

GOATS OF THE GAME:

Hank Poteat: While I am not 100% positive that he was in on the plays, I thought I recall him making poor efforts on several of the Chargers' big plays, including Tolbert's 66-yard dash. I always thought of Poteat as a scrub prior to his career in Cleveland, and he's done very little to change that reputation in my mind. Coye Francies, please?

AWARDING GAME BALLS:

Jerome Harrison: Two of our better games this season -- against the Cincinnati Bengals the first time around, and now against the Chargers -- have come with Jerome Harrison at tailback. I was thrilled to see Harrison get the start over Chris Jennings, and although Harrison's YPC average doesn't appear desirable (3.5), he provides the burst to the outside on plays that can help move the chains.

Eric Mangini also praised his blocking, so he is back in the good graces of the coaching staff. I didn't pay specific attention to it, but I recall one play where I saw a blitz come and Harrison stepped up and firmly picked it up. Harrison's biggest contribution was as a receiver, which I will elaborate on below.

GENERAL THOUGHTS

Jerome Harrison found his groove against the San Diego Chargers, scoring twice in the fourth quarter.

Harrison as the Checkdown: One of Brady Quinn's problems this season is that he has been checking down to wide receivers on very short passes. As much as we try, the wide receiver screens to Mike Furrey at the line of scrimmage won't cut it. Harrison was always in position to be relatively open and the check-down receiver for Quinn, which seemed to make Quinn more comfortable when going through his progressions.
Production Proves It: Harrison came through when Quinn went to him, with 7 catches for 62 yards and 2 touchdowns. The touchdowns both came in the fourth quarter, one of them on a very nifty shuffle pass.

Some fans complained that Harrison had a few drops, but if he had caught those plays, they would've been for short gains and would've kept the clock running. Nonetheless, I'm sure he didn't try to drop them as a football savvy decision, which still means there is a slight underlying problem in catching the ball.
Tomlinson Passes Brown: Maybe I'm just a little cynical, but I couldn't stop laughing at what progressed on the television screen when LaDainian Tomlinson passed up Jim Brown on the rushing list. The play by play announcers were so "in" to it, talking about Tomlinson's and Brown's accomplishments.

Then, when Tomlinson officially passed Brown, he pointed up towards a suite and the announcers commented, "and he appears to be saluting the legendary Brown...," only to have the cameras flash to Brown drinking a bottle of water as if he could care less. Of course Brown congratulated Tomlinson following the game; just how it went down on television brought a chuckle from me.
Robo Shows His Worth: Ah, so there's Brian Robiskie. Arguably, the playing time of Robiskie will be looked back on as one of the most controversial issues of the season because there might have been legitimate points to both sides of the argument.

Robiskie was touted in the draft as "the most NFL ready receiver." But, what if that wasn't the case? What if the coaches were right, and that in reality, Robiskie needed a lot of work?

Either way, what I saw Sunday against the Chargers was a receiver who looked the most polished out of what we have, particularly because when Brady Quinn rolled out, Robiskie rolled with him and caught the ball without issue. In one instance, he even shielded a defender and then ran for yards after the catch, completing a 43-yard reception.

Robiskie, in single coverage on a deep ball in the fourth quarter, also nearly came away with a touchdown. The defender knocked the ball away just as it arrived though. In what I consider to be Robiskie's first "true chance," he delivered. An effort like this against the Steelers would be even sweeter.
Can We Please Have Some Moore? I promise ~~not~~ to overuse that tagline for as long as Evan Moore is producing as a member of the Cleveland Browns. Promoted from the practice squad, I hardly expected Moore to even see the field Sunday. Instead, he was in the game early and often, showing extremely impressive hands and solid route running ability for a tight end. It's way too early to deem him any form of a savior at the tight end position, but he can suddenly be added to the mix of "players to look forward to" the rest of the way.
Close Enough Redemption: When Phil Dawson missed a 45-yard field goal early on in the first quarter, it ended up hurting. However, we have to remember that 45 yards is still not a chip shot. Dawson came back later and redeemed himself by drilling a 49-yard field goal to give us a chance at another onside kick. Both of Dawson's onside kicks were executed very well; Tomlinson just did a good job fielding the second one and the Chargers' blockers did their jobs on that play.
Quinn's Mistakes: While shined, he did have two big blunders. There was one pass where he went for a quick slant over the middle and failed to see the linebacker coming across. The defender only deflected the pass instead of having a possible pick six. Quinn then held onto the ball too long when we were threatening to score in the first half and was stripped of the football, taking more points off the board.
An Entire Series: It was interesting the way Brian Daboll used Joshua Cribbs on offense Sunday. I've been an advocate before of using Cribbs in the Wildcat throughout the game at varying instances. Instead, during the fourth quarter, Daboll suddenly pulled out a series which used Cribbs in the Wildcat. On first down, Cribbs took off for 30 yards. On the next first down, he was stopped for a 1 yard loss.

On second down, Cribbs ran the option play and pitched it back to Chansi Stuckey who ran it for 6 yards. On third down, Cribbs took off for 2 yards, setting up a 4th-and-3. Enter Quinn again, who fired a high pass past the first down marker to Cribbs. Cribbs, in a catch I usually don't expect from him, leaped up and caught it, hanging on for the first down. Several plays later, Harrison had one of his two touchdowns.
Rubin's Hit: I believe that Darren Sproles was the victim. He caught the ball, made a few defenders miss by the sideline, and then turned right into a spearing Ahtybin Rubin, who had quite the momentum coming from the spot he did.
Too Many Big Plays: If Rob Ryan needs to focus on something the rest of the way with the players he has at his disposal, it has to involve limiting the number of big plays by the opposition through the air. The Chargers had passing plays of 56, 66, 31, and 41 yards, and some of those were catch-and-run.
Still Intrigued: On defense, the only player I really seem to be following now is Matt Roth. He had half of a sack and continues to employ a bull-rush strategy.
We Should Try That: I hope that Daboll took note of the play in which Naanee received a pitch and then quickly threw the ball (as opposed to selling the reverse across the entire field and then throwing it). Naanee hit a wide open Tomlinson, and we were lucky that one of our defenders was still in the vicinity to prevent the play from going the distance.
Still a Mixed Bag: Good footwork by Mohamed Massaquoi on his touchdown in the first quarter, but he and Quinn just don't seem to be on the same page still. Throughout the game, Quinn seemed much more in sync with Moore, Harrison, Stuckey, and Robiskie.
Good Strategy: I don't know who tried to push the Chargers player into the football on the punt, but whoever did that, props to them. Had Abram Elam's foot not barely touched the ball upon replay review, the Browns would've had a chance to tack on a field goal just before the half.
Brownies: It looked like Mike Furrey was at safety quite a bit, but also on the targeted end of some of the Chargers' big pass plays...it's a good thing that after the Bye, I've felt better about this Browns team overall...for the first time in 35 games, the Browns scored an opening drive touchdown.

Thursday, the Browns take on the hated Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are vulnerable right now, having lost four straight. It's been awhile since a Browns coach has been able to defeat the Steelers, and Mangini has the opportunity to officially put a dagger in Pittsburgh's playoff hopes.

Packers-Ravens Retroactive Live-Blog

Mitchell_M — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:13:49 -0000

It's been two months since I've really been active on the site. For some of you, that is a terrible tragedy. For many, many more, it is a source of endless joy. But today I decided to cater to the minority and make my presence known by throwing a mini-fiesta with my DVR, a bowl of Reese's Puffs, and a strong pot of coffee.

Before we get going with the retroactive live-blog, let me just share some of the knowledge I've gained over the course of working for 80 out of a possible 168 hours in a week:

There are few things more traumatic than the transition from college-life to real-life. I imagine it's somewhat like being born, except you're slightly more conscious and slightly less sticky.

Unlike most co-eds, I worked my way through and avoided drinking my way out of school, but nothing can truly prepare you for the real world. There's chores? You have to do them, otherwise you're living in filth. There's bills? You have to pay them, otherwise a large Italian gentleman will break your ribs. There's family gatherings you'd rather not attend? You have to go to them, because you don't have the homework excuse anymore.

Real life blows, I'm going to grad school.
Trying to keep in shape? Don't work overnights. You will have no energy whatsoever during the daytime hours. I play basketball to keep myself in shape and satisfy my over-competitiveness, and I love it. But I haven't played in two months, and I've gotten noticably soft. Amazing, considering I've lost weight.
Dry spells. Guys, when women say that they're too tired, it's generally a toss-up between them actually being tired and not wanting to deal with you. When a guy says it? Definitely tired.
Caffeine has an odd effect after consuming too much for it. The most noticeable symptom is when you're lying down after finally getting home and you get the ringing in the ears. It keeps me up for at least half an hour, and my mom (who worked 3rd shift for over a decade) says it doesn't go away. Awesome.
Watching sports is a major hassle. Not only do I miss the majority of my Sunday NFL-watching, but working nights has ruined any chance I have of watching any NBA games during the week. DVR has been my best friend, but it somehow isn't enough.

On to the live-blog! I DVR'd this last night and watched it immediately as I got home. I did not check the score at any time on Monday night, and I have no knowledge whatsoever of the outcome. Enjoy!

Pre-game observations:

I forgot how cool of an environment Lambeau is on national TV at night. Other cities have their stadiums surrounded by other big buildings with big, bright lights, but Lambeau sort of stands alone in the still-tiny Green Bay. It's kind of cool, even though it's quaint.
Another thing I forgot? Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski are still in the MNF booth. Let's put it this way: it took roughly two minutes for Gruden to make the first (of what I predict will be many) "Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood" jokes. Ugh.
Ed Reed is announced as inactive for the game. Good timing to get the Ravens without their ball-hawk extraordinaire, not to mention good time by ESPN's cameras, who immediately cut to Reed spitting an enormous loogie. Between that and the beard, he looks like a homeless guy (who makes roughly 100,000x my salary).
Ray Lewis may have lost a step or four, but he's still quite the motivational speaker. It's like if Lil' Jon was coherent and dread-less.
The Nike Kobe and LeBron puppets are back. Frowny-face.
And here comes the Ray Rice love. Am I pleasantly surprised by my alma mater's best football product? Yes. Am I ecstatic to have drafted him (against my then-better judgement) in the ninth round of my keeper league? Yes and yes.

Alright, enough of that. Let's play some ball, gentlemen.

First Quarter!

15:00 - Green Bay receives, and Jordy Nelson avoids both tacklers and fumble-itis all the way to the 43-yard line. Decent start.

14:34 - A play-action draw pass? Sounds terrible, but it gained 7.

13:59 - So that's why we still have Brandon Jackson. Excellent scramble by Rodgers to find Jackson in the flat for the first down.

12:44 - Ravens call a timeout (symptom of missing Ed Reed #1), and the next thing we see is Jimmy Football. If someone were to kick him in the groin, I would not object. Extra points for wearing a Billy Mays mask and demanding royalties from Budweiser.

12:32 - ESPN shows a graphic illustrating Aaron Rodgers' awesomeness on 3rd down, and he promptly finds James Jones for a first down. Outstanding blitz pickup by both Chad Clifton (the blocker) and Scott Wells (the center).

11:22 - Korey Hall and Josh Sitton pancake Ray Lewis, opening a hole for Grant to gain a first down. In other news, Did you know that Ryan Grant is 8th in the league in rushing yards? When did that happen?

10:08 - ESPN continues the Rodgers love-fest by displaying his red-zone stats. Apparently, he has 30 TDs and 0 INTs over the past two seasons when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Yikes.

9:17 - Mark Tauscher comes up with a tipped pass and gets tackled for a loss. I'd criticize his decision to catch it versus batting it down, but whenever linemen get the ball, they seem so damn happy. I can't ruin it for him.

8:41 - Mason Crosby nearly shanks a 28-yarder. The Green Bay offense stalls in the red zone again, settling for the "easy" 3. Sadly, neither are surprises this season.

8:30 - Le'Ron McClain's smile is hilarious. Mark Clayton looks like 50 Cent. I can't wait to see the offensive linemen.

8:30 - And for good reason. Not only is Marshal Yanda's name funny, but he looks like an uncomfortable 7th grader who hasn't gotten used to his new body yet.

7:40 - Good containment on Ray Rice in the flat, but not good enough. First down, Baltimore.

7:01 - Flacco tightropes for a just-barely first down after being flushed out of the pocket. He may have looked like an idiot doing it, but it was probably better than getting pasted by Cullen Jenkins. I'll make fun of him either way.

5:05 - Bad decision by Nick Collins to go for the pick instead of batting down the ball. Another first down for Baltimore.

4:18 - Well, a fumble recovery certainly absolves Collins of any wrongdoing on the previous play. Clay Matthews is closing in on the "if a huge defensive play happens he must've had something to do with it" status currently held by Charles Woodson.

4:08 - Ryan Grant tries to return the favor, but his right knee looked like it could be down. Maybe. Possibly. Could go either way. This time, it goes the Packers' way.

3:48 - A great play by Dominique Foxworth that was (un)fortunately flagged as interference. The replay shows a grab or two, but probably

3:39 - No matter, Rodgers throws it directly to Tom ~~I-can't-spell-his-last-name-unless-I-check-the-recap-which-will-ruin-the-ending~~ Zbikowski.

2:06 - Now that's how you commit pass interference! Thanks ~~Atari Bigby~~ Tramon Williams! /facepalm

1:52 - Nick Collins makes everyone forget about Williams' transgression by picking off an ill-advised flea-flicker pass into quadruple coverage. Yeah, Flacco shouldn't have done that.

0:00 - An underwhelming first quarter filled with above-average defense and one boneheaded interception for both sides. 3-0, Green Bay.

Second Quarter!

14:52 - B.J. Raji sheds a block and drops Ray Rice for a big loss. Lucky he didn't get called for face masking, but a good play nonetheless.

14:12 - Derrick Mason just barely misses a catchable ball to force 4th down. I thought veteran receivers were supposed to make that play? I guess having Donald Driver on your team gives you a skewed expectation for aging wideouts.

13:14 - Great adjustment by James Jones to come back and grab the ball for a first down. He's definitely taken control of the 3rd WR spot on this team lately.

11:59 - By my count, that's three catches in this game that Jennings should have had but failed to come up with. This troubles me.

11:55 - Punting inside the 50-yard line? Greg Easterbrook would be appalled, then proceed to write a 10,000 word article about it. Shoot, if I included random interstellar factoids, referred to certain teams by ridiculous self-coined nicknames, and added superfluous cheerleader facts that allowed me to post their photos, I'd be Greg Easterbrook.

11:13 - Trey Wingo informs us that Jimmy Clausen will be entering the 2010 NFL Draft. Brady Quinn advises him to stay in school.

11:06 - Charles Woodson gets busted for mauling Derrick Mason. The groping wasn't necessary, Chuck.

11:01 - Clay Matthews asserts himself all over Joe Flacco. Jared Gaither doesn't know what just happened.

10:21 - Offsides on Clay Matthews? Jared Gaither claims to know what happened on the previous play.

9:48 - I know Jordy Nelson was dynamite at Kansas State, but I haven't seen enough promise out of him to merit keeping him on punt returns. Then again, it's more important to keep Woodson and Williams fresh, and Will Blackmon made his yearly trip to I.R. early this season.

8:30 - Haloti Ngata owns Daryn Colledge to drop Ryan Grant at the line. I wonder how long until Colledge loses his spot?

7:51 - It's plays like this that got Frank Walker traded. Thanks for the yardage!

7:42 - Ahman Green exhibits remarkable blitz pickup to spring Jermichael Finley on a big gain. Mike Tirico noted this, and Gruden promptly refers to him as Brandon Jackson (twice!) before correcting himself.

5:08 - Jermichael Finley makes another big play, thanks to another great third down throw from Rodgers. First and goal, Packers.

4:35 - I'm no psychic, but as soon as I saw Finley split out wide, I saw the quick fade coming. Fantastic throw, outstanding catch, b-e-a-utiful play. 10-0, Packers.

4:35 - I just remembered my fantasy football situation. Going into this week, three teams in my division were 7-5, with me among them. I play one of them this week and the other next week, and the other already has his victory wrapped up. I'm up 130-24 in a game I need to win to move into a tie for first place and help secure a playoff spot next week (the final week of the season). My opponent has Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, and the Packers defense playing. I have Ray Rice. Man, am I glad that his other players (Adrian Peterson, Reggie Wayne, Ricky Williams) all laid eggs.

2:00 - The two-minute warning comes up, and Mike Tirico just got done "highlighting" the Packers' 38-28 loss to Tampa Bay. In the team meeting the described, he said that the offensive line stood up and said something to the effect of "hey, you have to help us out too". I hope I misheard him.

1:50 - Rodgers gets the first on a sneak, and a fight nearly breaks out because Brandon Jackson is protecting Rodgers from what he thought was a late hit. Whether he was right or wrong, it is nice to see that kind of fight in your team.

1:24 - Donald Driver goes flying, earning Baltimore its 11th pass interference penalty on the year, leading the league.

1:18 - Green Bay ruins the momentum by giving up their first sack of the game. /facepalm

1:09 - And Rodgers gets it right back with a 20-yard scramble right up the middle. I take back my /facepalm.

0:38 - Rodgers delivers a Jon-Gruden-Quarterback-Fraternity-Approved LASER to Greg Jennings' back shoulder. Nice, except for Gruden's rambling.

0:32 - Rodgers connects with Donald Driver for a score, punctuated by two acrobatic leaps by Driver (one into the end zone, one into the stands). The Packer fan in me is ecstatic: the fantasy football owner is frantic.

0:00 - A solid defensive stand by Green Bay keeps the shutout alive. 17-0 Green Bay, at the half.

Halftime observations:

None. I have to be at work again in 8 hours (as of 1 PM), and I haven't slept yet. But the score doesn't lie. This game is totally worth staying up for.

Third Quarter!

14:07 - I don't know how they practiced for the past week and a half, but Green Bay is absolutely starving Ray Rice. He's trying his damndest, but he can't make anything happen. Why'd I start him against the #1 defense again?

12:31 - Brad Jones notches a sack from the strong side. Rookie 7th round pick? No matter. Boring name? Who cares? Buried on the depth chart? Not for long, I hope.

12:05 - Ryan Grant doesn't gain a ton of yards on this play, but it looks as if he's churning his legs and fighting for extra yardage more than I'm used to seeing from him. Did anyone else notice this?

9:57 - Rodgers gets time in the pocket, makes even more time, dances around, and finally gets sacked. Somehow, the play is negated by an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty. It seems like one of those games for Green Bay tonight.

9:30 - Then Scott Wells gets called for holding. Yep, it's definitely one of those games for Green Bay tonight, even if the score doesn't reflect it.

9:04 - Wow, I'm going to stop complaining about stupid penalties. I almost feel bad for Ravens fans. P.I. number twelve on the year for Baltimore.

8:27 - Jermichael Finley re-injures his knee. Not at all happy to see that.

8:23 - Nice connection to Driver that results in a fumble that quite possibly could be ruled an incompletion, if it was reviewed. Blah, a 17-0 lead in the third quarter shouldn't be this frustrating.

8:01 - Jon Gruden: "Somebody has to rescue the Ravens' offense right now." Yeah, that's Ray Rice's job, and he didn't come in today.

7:50 - As if on cue, Ray Rice rips off a big run. Jon Gruden gets to feel smart, and I lose a little bit of my soul.

6:07 - Jon Gruden praises Charles Woodson's ball-raking ability. The adolescent-me giggles uncontrollably.

5:18 - "Nobody strips a ball like Charles Woodson!" Adolescent-me is now crying with laughter.

5:13 - Todd Heap drops a sure-fire 1st and goal, then Tramon Williams forces Mark Clayton to drop one in the end zone with a slightly-more sneaky arm bar. Illegal? Yes. Effective? Absolutely, that's why it's illegal.

3:35 - I don't know what the refs were talking about before this drive, but they are letting the defense play. You don't see many drives last this long against a defense that's getting away with everything.

3:28 - A free play and a Kelley Washington touchdown deflates the stadium. The play gets challenged, but I'm skeptical.

3:28 - Modern Warfare 2 commercial, set to Eminem's "Til I Collapse". Best 30 seconds of non-football I've seen today. Get that game, if you can handle it.

3:28 - Turns out that I was right; the score stands. Green Bay is out of challenges for the game, unless of course they used the item cheat and got one for free. 17-7, Packers.

3:22 - Evan Dietrich-Smith comes up with the kickoff. My immediate thought: "This cannot end well." Of course he fumbled, but Green Bay was lucky enough to regain possession.

3:14 - Jared Johnson gets an interception off of Driver's shin. I'm not liking this third quarter. Too much bad mojo.

3:07 - More bad mojo with Tramon Williams' P.I. in the end zone. Actually, this one is relatively tame compared to other plays the refs have allowed tonight (today?).

2:58 - Willis McGahee pushes his fantasy-irrelevant self in from the 1. Makes my Ray Rice decision feel even better. 17-14, Packers. /double facepalm

2:43 - Jennings manages a nice gain on a 3rd and 10 slant. I was just about to start considering wondering whether or not Green Bay was possibly maybe starting to lose it.

1:52- Ray Lewis nearly decapitates Greg Jennings, and the flag takes forever to come in. But it does, which is all that matters.

0:42 - A Mark Tauscher hold takes Green Bay out of the red zone the same way they got in: on the yellow cloth road.

0:00 - I knew this game seemed too sloppy to be a blowout. 17-14, Packers, but our guys are in scoring position.

Fourth Quarter!

14:50 - Mason Crosby shanks a field goal, leaving the drive with nothing to show for it. Same score, same story. I sure hope the defense can regain its first-half composure.

13:53 - Flacco unleashes the dragon deep, Derrick Mason gets past Charles Woodson and makes the catch over him, but somehow got called for offensive pass interference. At this point, I don't know which team is trying to give the other team more breaks, honestly. And an unsportsmanlike penalty on Mason is tacked on at the end of it. A huge gain turns into a huge loss in a heartbeat. 3rd and 32 (!).

13:05 - So of course Baltimore decides to run the ball and Ray Rice nearly fumbles. Green Bay gets the ball back with decent field position.

12:30 - And here comes the replay of the Mason interference/unsportsmanlike penalties. There was definitely a hook-and-push around Woodson's waist, and Mason follows up that number with a plea for leniency to the referee. Pretty standard, right? Nah, just kidding, he pretty much shouted in the ref's face, "What the f--- was that, man?" Yeah, that's a flaggin'.

10:31 - Jermichael Finley gets another touchdown after a couple of nice short passes to get within 20 yards. Aaron Rodgers' red-zone stats improve, Jermichael gets the "Mr. Monday Night" nickname, my fantasy team starts to quiver in terror, and the score jumps to 24-14, Packers.

10:21 - Ah, Green Bay special teams, you never cease to disgust me. A massive kick return puts the Ravens deep into Green Bay territory. Then again, how hard is it to juke out Mason Crosby? The goalposts do it to him on a weekly basis.

9:46 - Tramon Williams earns yet another pass interference flag in the end zone. I thought there was a cap to how many times a player could get flagged for the same thing over and over?

/conveniently forgetting the Ahmad Carroll era

9:30 - How? How? How does a cornerback make that play? Tell me how Charles Woodson just stopped McGahee when he had a massive opening to go through? Between that and flustering the Ravens to the point of calling a timeout, I'm pretty sure Charles Woodson should gain an edge for the DPOY award after tonight.

8:47 - Joe Flacco rolls nearly 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, avoids a sack, and tosses it nicely into Tramon Williams hands. Mike Tirico exclaimed "That is terrible!" as the ball was still in the air! I cannot believe Flacco made that throw. Downright Bad Favre-esque. Kudos to Williams for not retreating into the fetal position after all the penalties tonight.

8:38 - Still trying to figure out the last three plays of that Baltimore drive. Tackle for loss, timeout, interception, all from within the 5-yard line. When's the last time Green Bay came up with that kind of stop?

7:12 - Baltimore's defense forces a 3-and-out as the King of Third Down and James Jones miscommunicate on a fly-stop route.

6:48 - Yeah, Joe Flacco's having a bad day. This time he throws it right into the hands of A.J. Hawk, who was quietly having another solid game (which is EXACTLY WHY WE DRAFTED HIM! FOR QUIET, SOLID GAMES!) before this play. Back-to-back interceptions for the Unibrow, and I'm almost sad to see it. Remember, my fantasy team is up 130-24, but I'm playing Rodgers, Finley, and the Packer defense while starting Ray Rice. The offense I can deal with, but this stifling defense is killing me!

6:00 - Ahman Green smashes his way to gain a short first down, and the running out of the clock commences. How much time can they milk from the clock?

2:56 - Turns out they can burn a whole lot of time. Interesting graphic on Green Bay receivers, going from Sharpe to Brooks to Freeman to Driver to Jennings.

2:15 - "Hey Coach Gruden, I found a pair of your old practice shorts." If there's a better setup for a pasty white guy wearing green-and-gold short-shorts in below-freezing weather, I've never seen it.

1:56 - Crosby avoids the shank-osaurus and makes it 27-14, Packers. Solid lead.

1:52 - Gruden brings up the possibility of a Vikings-Packers rematch in the playoffs. I say, don't get ahead of yourself, but the prospect of facing what might be a slowly-fading Favre, a possibly nicked-up Peterson, and a banged-up defense in Minnesota isn't nearly as terrifying as it seems.

0:29 - Fittingly, Clay Matthews chases Flacco down for his second sack of the day. Ted Thompson deserves all the slack in the world for having the stones to trade up for this guy. He could draft Jimmy Clausen next season and I'd still like him.

0:00 - The sack is the last play of the game, and the Packers earn the win, 27-14.

Post-game thoughts:

Not many, again due to my exhaustion. But I will say this: the offense played relatively well, Aaron Rodgers carried the team with his passing. The defense was stifling for much of the game, and Charles Woodson should be the front-runner for DPOY, and even in the conversation for defensive-players-who-deserve-the-MVP-but-won't-get-it-because-they're-not-a-quarterback-or-running-back (if he wasn't already). The playcalling was really well thought out on both sides of the ball, and the execution of many of the plays was awfully impressive.

But two things stand out as glaring negatives. First was the penalties. So many penalties. If Baltimore didn't flag it up more than we did, it would stand out more. Tramon Williams has a lot of talent, but he cannot ~~get caught using~~ use that armbar anymore. It simply costs too much yardage. And Chad Clifton needs to get his business together, because he's smarter than he's playing.

The second thing was the final score. 27-14 seems like a solid win, but with all of the opportunities that the Ravens gave up, it should have been a much wider margin. Playoff teams win games like this soundly, which the Packers did. They should, they're a playoff team. But championship teams beat their opponent senseless when they come up with as many takeaways as they did (4).

All that said, this is Green Bay's fourth straight win after falling to 4-4. You can't ask for a better setup for the final quarter of the season.

And my fantasy team? They hung on for a 137-80 victory, largely because I had actually started Rashard Mendenhall instead of Ray Rice. See what working third shift does to you?

Bengals reportedly interested in bringing Shaun Smith back

Kirkendall — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:52:27 -0000

If there's one signing I'm dead set against, it's the Bengals bringing defensive tackle Shaun Smith back. The Enquirer's Joe Reedy writes that the "Bengals have an interest" bringing Smith back to Cincinnati. If I say it really nice, I say, "please, no". If I say it honestly, I say, "are you f***king crazy?!"

Smith was released by the Browns during training camp, signed with Detroit and then was released the last weekend of training camp. He has also been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league’s anabolic steroid policy.

Over the past two seasons, Smith started 20 games for the Browns. He played two games in the UFL with Las Vegas.

Back in March 7, 2008, Smith had broken the silence over the infamous fight between Chad Johnson (as he was called at the time) and Marvin Lewis during the 2005 Wild Card game that the Bengals lost to Pittsburgh. Smith said in 2008:

"He swung on Marvin. . . . [Johnson] shattered the training room glass. . . . He swung on Marvin [and] hit Marvin in the eye. . . . Then he tried to swing on wide receivers coach Hue Jackson, who's now in Baltimore."

The Bengals refused comment. Hue Jackson told his side of the story. Smith is also known for getting into a fight with Browns quarterback Brady Quinn. Per PFT, "After a verbal altercation, between the two, Smith punched Quinn in the face." Then earlier this year, per PFT:

According to WKNR radio (via the Akron-Beacon Journal), Smith gave Browns G.M. George Kokinis an "expletive-filled tongue lashing" in a stadium hallway after Saturday's preseason game in Cleveland.

So, really. Bengals. Are you f***king serious?!

Clausen enters NFL Draft; is he a fit in Buffalo?

Brian Galliford — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Browse more photos »

The Buffalo Bills are back to work on the practice field today, but with news scant and the team not very interesting to begin with, it's still, unfortunately, more intriguing to ponder future iterations of the Bills than the current outfit. Naturally, we're going to be taking a brief field trip from talking about the Bills this afternoon - these Bills, anyway - and instead focus on the bigger news of the day.

Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen has announced his intentions to enter the 2010 NFL Draft. [Mocking the Draft]

Playing quarterback for the New York Yankees of college football, Clausen is one of the most highly-debated prospects in the nation simply because of the golden helmet he wore at Notre Dame. The 6'3", 226-pound junior was college football's second-highest rated passer in 2009, and given the fact that his head coach, Charlie Weis, was recently fired by ND, his declaration for next April's draft is not anywhere near surprising.

The natural thought process for Bills fans at this point is something along the lines of, "Hey, Buffalo's quarterbacks stink, and a new regime will, of course, want a new quarterback. Is Jimmy Clausen the answer?" Time will tell, but fans shouldn't dismiss him as a potential remedy to the team's longest-standing personnel issue out of habit.

Clausen the player
Clausen, as mentioned, measures in at 6'3" and 226 pounds, but it wouldn't surprise me - nor Rumblings draft guru Der Jaeger - if he measured in shorter than that at next February's NFL Combine. He doesn't look too tall on film, though he's certainly tall enough where his height won't be a huge problem for him. He's packed on a lot of weight over the past three seasons at Notre Dame, and while he's still skinny, he's thick enough to absorb hits and stay strong in the pocket.

Clausen's arm isn't elite - you won't be wowed by the velocity on any of his throws - but it's strong enough where he can hurt a defense at all levels of the field. He's pretty accurate and is able to put a nice touch on short and immediate throws; he can squeeze the ball into a tight window, too. He's a playmaker with his arm, but he's very much a pocket quarterback; he's mobile enough to roll out and pick up the occasional first down on a scramble, but his legs are decidedly not a weapon for him.

Where Clausen has distinct advantages over many of the other quarterbacks that will be available next April is in the fact that he's played - and excelled - in a pro-style offense, and that he's an elite decision-maker. As a sophomore in 2008, Clausen completed 60% of his passes and had a 25-17 TD-INT ratio. Those numbers increased dramatically as a junior, when he completed 68% of his passes and had a 28-4 TD-INT ratio. As Mocking the Draft notes in the story linked above the fold, three of Clausen's four interceptions came on tipped passes. The kid didn't make many mistakes in his final year in college.

Clausen was 16-19 at Notre Dame. In his junior season, Notre Dame finished 6-6, but of those six losses, the Irish scored at least 21 points in all of them. Their two biggest losses on the season were 7-point losses to USC and Stanford. He struggled in three games, but still tossed four touchdowns in those games, and in a win at Purdue, he played through a tough injury to his foot. Clausen played with grit as a junior, getting banged up behind a rather mediocre offensive line, yet he still started every game and put up elite numbers.

The big questions surrounding Clausen
Clausen is consistent mechanically, but he's not perfect. He's got a bit of a windup, and he's kind of slow and almost lethargic in his drops - though the ball always comes out quickly. Again - he's not fleet of foot, and he'll need a little work in his drops, in my opinion. His tools are not elite, but they're very good - and in a quarterback draft class that has been slightly overrated, Clausen's well-rounded physical and scheme attributes will likely get him drafted a touch higher than his skill and potential probably dictate.

People have, in the past, questioned Clausen's maturity and mental fortitude. He grew up in California and had tremendous hype as a high school product, and while he struggled mentally early on because of this, he grew a bit as a leader in South Bend. Through tremendous adversity and ridiculous expectations, Clausen has flourished and, perhaps more importantly, gotten better each season. He's rallied the troops for some thrilling late-game performances - in both victory and defeat. His transition to the NFL might not be immediate, but given what he's already experienced, I find it highly unlikely that the NFL game will faze him.

You'll also hear plenty of arguments that Clausen worked in a system that accentuated quarterback stats, and that he was surrounded by top-flight talent. Both are true. Weis has always had productive quarterbacks, wherever he's been, and the likes of Golden Tate (who also announced his intentions to go pro today), Michael Floyd and tight end Kyle Rudolph gave Clausen tremendous skill positional assets to utilize. His numbers may have been inflated because of both factors, but the bottom line is that Clausen still had to make the throws, and more often than not, the ball was exactly where it needed to be.

I've heard the "Notre Dame quarterbacks bust, just look at Brady Quinn" argument too many times to adequately express my true level of frustration toward it. If a quarterback can play football, I don't care if he went to Notre Dame or if he went to South Central Montana State. Clausen has proven that he can play, and he's done it against pretty solid competition. That's all that should matter.

The bottom line on Clausen
I view Clausen as a fringe Top 10 talent that, ideally, would be picked somewhere between the first 10 and 20 picks in the draft. He's not an elite prospect, but he's good enough to build a franchise around. He's not a sure bet - very, very few prospects are, and none of them are quarterbacks - but there's definitely some energy to be excited about surrounding Clausen.

I question just how much distance he has to close between his current level of play and his true 'potential' as a prospect. That is, I'm not sure how much better he can get. That'll happen when you play nearly flawless football at Notre Dame. I think he can make slight gains in technique and obviously in experience, but I don't think he's capable of playing near-perfect football at the NFL level.

I worry a little bit about his willingness to lead, too. He's got kind of a Tony Romo vibe about him, in that when he's on, he's elite, and when he's not on, you question whether or not he's really the guy to head up your program. I'd be very hesitant to plug him in as a rookie starter - particularly in Buffalo - because if he took some early hits and lost confidence behind a porous offensive line, I'd have serious doubts as to whether he'd have the mental fortitude to get through the rough patch. If he starts off hot, however, I think he'd end up being fine, and more able to work through the low points of the game.

The bottom line is that the Buffalo Bills desperately need a franchise signal-caller. Jimmy Clausen is a franchise signal-caller. I'm not advocating that the Bills do whatever it takes to get him next April, but there's little doubt in my mind that he's capable of leading a consistent, productive NFL team down the line. It's way too early to draw lines in the sand, but Clausen is good enough - and the Bills will be picking high enough - that Clausen needs to be on your radar if he wasn't already.