SB Nation - Daniel Graham

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

9 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings 1.0

Emmett Smith — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:07:22 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton (8) passes while offensive tackle Ryan Clady, right, blocks Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Tamba Hali (91) during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

View full size photo »

This week brought some colder, wetter autumnal weather to southern California. It put me in the perfect mood to watch a lot of film and to take in all of the facets of a massive, overwhelming Broncos beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs, right on their own turf. Despite all the press about the past, this is a new team and they took the opportunity to prove that to KC and anyone else who was willing to watch. It was close right up to the end of the first quarter, and quickly turned into a rout during quarter 3. I enjoyed every minute of it. While I wanted to have the Broncos put a headlock on the Chiefs I didn't expect Ryan Clady (photo) to take it quite so literally.

I also continued to look at past film, spending a little extra time on special teams. I'll talk more about them on Thursday, but this was plenty to get us started. Hats on? Goggles in place? Let's do it. In fact, let's start in Indianapolis.

Defense Wins Game

Did anyone catch the way that Indianapolis won over Tennessee? Tennessee was a hot as any team in gootball, but they fell short when they came up against the Indy defense. The Colts had not one but two goal line stands in a game that brought about a 27-17 win over the Titans.

As usual, they had help. Vince Young fumbled at the one on first and goal. A Titans guard, Eugene Amano (another of the great football names, being mano Amano) committed a holding penalty, but Indy held on all tries and a perfect fade route in the corner of the endzone one fourth down was foiled when rookie Jerraud Powers pushed fellow rookie Kenny Britt out of bounds before he could get both feet down. Clint Session had 12 tackles to lead the Colts and he was joined by a crew that just didn't let up.

I bring this up for a simple reason. When Kansas City was sitting at the one yard line on 1st and goal at the end of the 1st quarter, I wasn't even phased. No chemicals were involved in my level of calm - for once, finally, for the first time in years, I awaited not how KC would score but how Denver would beat them back. Despite the ease with which the Chiefs moved the ball to the one, I knew that they were 17 plays into their drive and that the more opportunities you give Mike Nolan up in the booth, the more likely it is that he'll solve what's happening and that one or more of the Broncos will make a play. That went strangely errant during the losing streak, but that feeling was back again on Sunday, as it had been against NY. The Broncos held KC to a FG. My only surprise was that they didn't just take it away entirely.

The Post said:

"Perhaps Elvis Dumervil, Bailey and the Broncos' fifth-ranked pass defense can negate the Colts' strength. Dumervil ran down Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel in the second quarter for his NFL-best 15th sack of the season. Unlike the Broncos' teams that took trips to Indy earlier this decade, Dumervil offers the chance to apply pocket pressure on Manning, and Bailey appears to have considerably improved secondary mates.

Ty Law has provided us with a veteran's skills at the cornerback blitz. He hits like a particle accelerator, giving us the Denver version of the Big Bang. H was a great pickup. I don't know the issues of contracts that well, so I'll assume that he was let go due to excessive dollars for expected performance, but here's his contract with us:

1/6/2009: Signed a one-year, $800,000 contract. The deal included a $200,000 signing bonus. Another $400,000 is available through incentives based on performance and playing time. 2009: $600,000

That's cheap for what he's bringing to us. He'll be a free agent in 2010, if the Broncos don't sign him to another 1 year contract. Based on what I've seen so far, they should.

Goodman and safety Renaldo Hill each picked off Cassel passes in the third quarter to set up scores. Brian Dawkins blew up a Kansas City first-and-goal-from-the-1 chance in the second quarter by tackling Jamaal Charles for a 3-yard loss and then delivering a blindside blitz to disrupt Cassel's third-down pass attempt. The Chiefs didn't have an answer.

"It's not for one guy," Dawkins said. "Champ does not have to be all over the place. Elvis doesn't have to make five sacks. There's always going to be somebody to make the play. To me, that's a telltale sign of a good defense.""

It is, and that's what I loved about watching the KC game. in every quarter, someone else stepped up. Orton had a 'bad' game but ended up with a 90+ QB rating for his efforts by making two nice TD passes, moving above 60% on his passing completions and by the team going 4 of 6 in the Red zone and nailing those other two as FGs. This is a team that can put together a whole game. Indy is as tough as there is in the NFL, but every team can be beaten. It will take a near perfect effort, though. Are the Broncos up to it?

There's another side to our preparation this week: Denver will be going up against Larry Coyer, who was fired as the defensive coordinator in Denver. While most such individuals claim that it's just a game, theey understand the business and that there is nothing personal in their feelings few of us believe taht and for good reason. It's the nature of the competitive individual to compete, to assert oneself and to repay old slights. Coyer had trouble making the adjustments that kept the Broncos competitive during some of the games and over the course of the season. He will be looking to show Denver that he's learned those lessons and put them to good use.

Two side notes -- Bobby Wade was the best Denver player to wear a Chiefs uniform on Sunday, contributing drops and misses to keep drives from scoring. Ti's always appreciated, but don't expect Indianapolis to be as accommodating. And if you didn't enjoy watching Peyton Hillis show folks that he's not done with Denver, you just aren't a fan. I don't know where they keep the 'yards after contact' stats for RBs, but I'd love to see how his stack up. Great power running against an exhausted KC defense.

Special Teams Fun

A most of you know, I've been tearing apart film recently in an attempt to get a better idea of why the losing streak was happening. Today is the start of some discussion of special teams. Much of today's info came from the KC game. I've got some more coming on Thursday. Theser are some qustions that I wrote down before hitting the film:

Who is blocking on the KO and punts, who stands out? Give me some names

I'll go with 4 - on KOs, Spenser Larsen and Peyton Hillis. I can add Robert Ayers - the more film I watch, the more he's in on the blocking. Quinn? You bet. He's been in on the blocking frequently, on the ST. Against the fake punt play in KC, which could have been another TD if complete, he made a veteran read and play. By the way, calling that play at your own 28? Wow. It seemed that Darcel McBath was caught out of position, following where he thought that play was going, which left the receiver, a center who lined up as an eligible receiver, wide open. Quinn made a totally heads-up play. Nice work, rookie. Quinn also blocked well, not letting up on his man, on the drive following Andre' Goodman's perfect INT on Cassel later that quarter.

For what it's worth, that seemed to be a badly thought-out play. It's a huge gamble, your offense is failing to make any yardage but you're still only down 14-6. Aren't you throwing in the towel when you do that? It lead to a FG that made it 17-6 and would later prove to put the game out of reach.

Who is standing out as a gunner?

David Bruton, Darcel McBath and now Spencer Larsen stand out, as does Richard Quinn, but Darrell Reid (who had 3 ST tackles on Sunday at KC) was also a factor in many plays. It's a nice thing when you need to list 5 good players. Josh Barrett also seems to always be around the ball - not yet making the tackle but fillig the right lanes and keeping the runbacks contained. Champ Bailey had a nice play on the kickoff following Prater's FG at 13:30 of the 3rd Q. He was there along with Spencer Larsen, who didn't get credit for that tackle but who was in on it. Wes Woodyard had two ST tackles of his own. There was a lot of praise to go around, and all of it deserved.

Did anyone notice that when Eddie Royal had some space to move in and come blocking that he was repeatedly able to gain significant yardage? The pattern of not stopping the offense until they are in the area of the 40s and then having Royal backed up to the goal line was broken by our defensive play and the difference was obvious.

He may not have caught a lot of passes but they had to account for him all day and his combined yardage was a thing of joy. The man can block, too. You might also want to go back and rewatch the Marshall TD from the 10 yard line - Marshall started on the right side of the formation, went in motion to the left and received the pass on the right. If Eddie Royal doesn't seal off #39, Brandon Carr, on that play, Marshall maybe gains 2. Instead, Royal drove his man out of the play for just long enough to let the Broncos start celebrating.

On the following KO, Alphonso Smith, Robert Ayers, Josh Barrett and Andra Davis were ready to tackle if Wesley Woodyard hasn't made a perfect takedown on the ball carrier. The Broncos were swarming on STs, and that's nice to see. They need to continue that level of play. They didn't, for 4 games, but have stepped up for the late season run.

Royal's runback at 13:00 of the 4th Q was a thing of beauty. I thought that he was going to waste another return by running vertically, but he faked that and turned upfield into a seam, pounding across into Chiefs territory and nearly breaking a final tackle at the end before being brought down by the kicker. Such a great job...getting the kicks with room to run makes it all work.

By the way, on the 44 yard FG kick following the fake punt, I loved hearing Dick Enberg say of Prater, "Oh, he's got a big leg.." Yes, he sure does. Both of our kickers seem to be gaining in strength as the season is moving along. That's always a nice feeling. By the way, just how the heck did Berger manage to get that punt off with Jovan Belcher in his face? Picked up a penalty, but managed to roll the ball along the sideline for long enough to make that punt a keeper. When you're on, you're on...

Team Game

Renaldo Hill made a great catch on a Matt Cassel throw for an INT but the real hero of the play was none other than Elvis Dumervil. Doom hit Cassel just as he released, driving him slightly backward and causing the pass to sail on him, leading to the INT. Great pressure creates great plays.

Buckhalter takes the rock for 12 to start the Denver drive after that play, but the heroes of that play were Ryan Clady and Spencer Larsen. Clady sealed off his man and Larsen free-lanced to the outside, taking the RDE (91, Tamba Hali) out of the play. Buck ran on past them and picked up 12, the last 3 by sheer force of will. On the next play, it was Larsen, Daniel Graham and Clady. Buck put on an amazing show. 113 yards on 10 carries? I don't recall seeing a performance like that recently , off the top of my head.

Talk about team - did you see Kyle Orton, blocking downfield for Marshall on the reverse? Sure, Marshall didn't make it to that second level, but you have to chuckle when your QB is finishing his blocks. I loved it.

If you blinked, you might have missed it so I'll pass it along. On the fumble forced by Mario Haggan and picked up by Andre' Goodman, in the background you could see Vonnie Holliday hammering his man into the turf so that he couldn't have a shot at getting to the ball or to Goodman. In a single heartbeat, Holliday went from fighting with his man to get to the ball carrier to fighting to drive him into the ground. Great job, heads up play. And, on the following KO, the Broncos filled their lanes to perfection, not permitting any chance of a good runback. The STs stepped way up last Sunday.

Rotating players - Darcel McBath and Marcus Thomas seem to make their presence known every time they step into the rotation. Kudos to both of them.

I'm embarrassed to admit that by the time Cassel completed a nice pass to Bobby Wade over the middle at the end of the third quarter, I found myself actually rooting for him to get one. It was that much of a beating - I knew that he couldn't beat us. I just didn't want to see the Broncos keep slaughtering him. In a few moments, the feeling passed, but it gives an idea of the kind of game it was. Vonnie Holliday sacked him on the next play anyway. The final play of that abortive drive was a hot route out of the shotgun, incomplete to Chambers. If Cassel had put it on the money it would have been intercepted by Renaldo Hill. The overage was as compete as the snow on the Divide. By the end of the 3rd Q, it was time for the mercy rule to kick in.

Variety is the Spice...

On the following series for Denver, backed up to their own 6 yard line. The Broncs came out with a nice little formation that should look familiar to those who read last year's Magic 3 article by Steve Nichols or my own followup to it. Denver brought Spencer Larsen up to just behind the LOS, to the right, with Daniel graham on the line to Polumbus' right and Tony Scheffler outside both of them, towards the right sideline. Moreno was in the backfield, Orton under center and Marshall split out wide to the left. It was essentially a Magic 3 formation, and Denver played with several variations of Multiple TE formations over the course of the game. I saw Quinn in for one of the other Magic 3's. They seem to be running out of it so far, which is fine. I await them using it to throw more - it will give the defensive coordinators fits. It's hard enough to step as a power running option.

Back to the Future

Does it seem familiar that Brandon Marshall is doing so well that teams are obligated to try and stop him, leaving the running game more room to maneuver and Royal a Chance to catch more balls? It should. The more that Marshall catches, the more that other players come open and the more big plays we will see. It was true las year and it is this year as well.

Speaking of the future - I loved that the Broncos when for the big play on 4th and inches at the start of the 4th Q. Moreno could have had 80 yards as easily as 18. Both Graham and Larsen handled their men perfectly. They caught KC in the perfect defensive formation for the playcall and the blocking was once again perfect. Complementary football is a beautiful thing, and watching Moreno make TDs is likely to become something of a habit.

On the following KO, Champ Bailey filled the middle, forcing the returner to pause and giving Mario Haggan (who wasn't credited) and Larsen (who was credited with the tackle) a chance to pounce. That's the kind of thing that only a film review really permits you to enjoy. Quite often, the player who makes the play possible isn't the player who makes the play. That's Broncos football in a nutshell.

Reader Mail

I heard back from Joel Griffin after last BT&N. Nice fellow. He had this to say:

I really enjoyed reading your film breakdown of the Denver Broncos. Without even reviewing the film I could have pointed fingers at Hochstein & Polumbus - but you did an excellent job of highlighting their ridiculous errors. Graham was called for 2 more holding calls on Thanksgiving that resulted in 38 rushing yards coming back for Moreno so I wouldn't go letting him off the hook for his inconsistency yet...

Good points, Joel. Daniel Graham is a huge player, a game-changer when he's on. When he takes a play off by committing a foolish penalty I want to growl at him but he always rebounds for us. That's been a pattern with him for a long time, and he's worth the aggravation of a few plays, although I still hope the grows out of it. I loved his TD play at KC and that's typical of his abilities. Scheffler had a big drop, but also got a PI call that moved the chains and he added a 19 yard reception. I loved seeing Peyton Hillis taking people apart in garbage time. I still think that there's a place for that man in the RB rotation, but time will tell. Buck seems to be chewing up the field again - a 9.4 YPC AVERAGE? Ok, he was a prescient pickup by McD and Co. Nice work by Knowshon Moreno, too. A team ypc of 5.1 really does help the game along...

A Final Thought

One of the things that is being lost in all the perspectives of the last couple of weeks is this: Denver is finally getting to the point where they can be more of a 'big strike' team. No, that doesn't mean that they will change from the short yardage offense that they began with, but it does mean that they have other options when they need them. Marshall's 47 yard run is one example, the increase in longer plays is another. This is a team that is still finding out how good it is. The players needed to get used to the schemes and to each other, but that's happening much as I and many others predicted early in the season. It's great to see.

I'll be back for the usual Thursday Broncos Thoughts and Musings, but too much happened this week to summarize quickly. Let's hope that the injuries are minor, that Denver realizes that they can compete with anyone if they play at their best and that a surprise awaits Indianapolis when we travel there next weekend.

Go Broncos!

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

18 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) reacts after sacking New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.

Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.

It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.

I spent a lot of time watching each of the losses and trying to comprehend exactly why, in terms of their on-field play, they were losing. It was a helpful exercise. The losses showed exactly why we were struggling and the victory last week showed equally well what happens when you rectify those same errors. Losing is usually about errors -- sometimes you just are beaten by a better team, but most of the time you open the door and usher them into the victory circle. Jimmy Johnson is a complicated man but he nailed it when he pointed out that you only have to beat about 10 teams in the NFL. The others will create the victory for you if you just stay around. That's exactly what Denver was doing.

The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.

For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.

Tight Spots

It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.

About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.

When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.

Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.

Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.

It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.

Being Offensive

Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.

The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.

In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.

An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.

At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.

There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?

A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.

Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.

I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.

I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.

Not-so Special Teams

In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.

It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.

And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.

If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:

Week 8, Baltimore: 20.55

Week 9, Pittsburgh: 21.64

Week 10, Washington: 27.91

Week 11, San Diego: 29.60

Week 12, New York: 30.20

The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.

Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.

Throwdown, Elvis Style

Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.

When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.

Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.

It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.

If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.

What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.

Rookies

There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.

Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.

It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.

This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.

That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.

I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.

Knowing Knowshon Moreno

Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:

"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."

Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.

Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).

Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.

By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:

During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.

To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.

By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.

Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.

Orton and Learning

There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.

It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:

"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."

What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.

You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.

Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .

For Kicks

Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.

Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.

"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.

Kansas City Here I Come

Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.

KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.

The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.

One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.

There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...

Go Broncos!

Potent Quotables - Broncos 26 - Giants 6

John Bena — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 07:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

18 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels reacts as he leaves the field after Denver defeated New York Giants 26-6 in an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

DENVER BRONCOS HEAD COACH JOSH MCDANIELS

On ending the losing streak

"Today really had nothing to do with the streak for us. We were pleased with the way that we came out and prepared this week. It's not easy to prepare for a difficult opponent that we don't know very well in just two or three days of preparation. Our team had a great attitude. You could tell they really were looking forward to playing tonight, and enjoyed the whole atmosphere and the fact that we had three days in between. We played complimentary football. We played pretty well in all three phases. It always feels better to win."

On NFL Network airing profanity

"It's the NFL Network. It doesn't surprise me."

On the Broncos being an emotional team

"We talked about that last week after the loss. It's part of our makeup. It's part of our team. It's part of who I am. It's part of who a lot of our players are, and we don't want them to be somebody that they are not. We don't want them to try and contain that if that's how they feel. I think that when you get a channel in the right direction that it is always a positive. It sometimes can go in the wrong direction. I'm happy that I have those guys in the locker room with me every week. I love to go to work. I love to coach them, and we have a lot of fun doing what we do and work hard to try and do it."

On the importance of S Brian Dawkins

"He's been playing like he's 25 all year. That's the spirit that he has. His spirit, I've said it a number of times already, I don't think I'll ever be around another player that has the spirit that Brian Dawkins has. His leadership, his quality of it, and just his persona, his positive attitude, the things that he brings to our team every day. What a great example for every player, every coach, whether they are young or old."

On if he seeks out players that play with emotion

"That doesn't bother me, if they do that. You guys know we have a lot of them, and that's okay. I don't think that's a prerequisite to play for me or playing here for the Broncos. I think that's always good to have a good mix or good blend of those kinds of personalities on your team. Certainly not everybody can be like that, and we don't want them to be like that, but we would definitely embrace people that play like that and show their emotion and personality. It makes practice fun. It makes the game fun. And when you win, that stuff is all positive."

On if emotion helps after coming off of a loss

"I think when you have positive personalities, and I think that's what we have, we don't have guys that get down. The last four weeks in our building haven't been a funeral. We have a great work ethic, great resolve. You want to put yourself in a position after Thanksgiving to be able to compete to make the playoffs, and that's what we hopefully have done. We have to play well from now on out, and we know that's the situation that every team is in, and we are embracing that situation."

On false starting in the Red Zone in the second quarter

"You can't false start in the Red Zone. It was frustrating because we practiced a lot down there and we do a lot of different things. When we do it right, we can be very good. We certainly weren't very good, and I'll take the blame for that. The things we were trying to accomplish on those last three plays wasn't the right mix or formula at that time, and we didn't respond very well to it. Like you had mentioned, the NFL Network thing, I don't even know what that is. That's their business. The fact that we tried to go over and have a little bit of eye-to-eye there was what that was."

On if he is aware of the camera on him

"No, I don't even know. I have no idea where the camera was. I was just trying to do what I thought was best at the time."

On RB Knowshon Moreno's confidence

"He and [Correll] Buckhalter both. I mean, when you're running behind the line, when you're running behind the fullback, [FB] Spencer Larson deserves credit, [TE] Daniel Graham, [TE] Tony Scheffler, the entire offensive line. I don't know how many runs we had that went negative, but it couldn't have been many, and for those guys to keep the line of scrimmage clean against a front like that, they deserve a ton of credit. Any back that's running behind a line like that that can give them time to find a crease. They look like they're having a lot of fun out there, to me, and that's a good sign."

On [WR] Brandon Marshall's performance

"He said I was going to see ‘The Beast' tonight. I guess that's what it means, because those are catches that special people make. There's no question about that. When you go up there and do it one-handed, and keep running, there aren't many people in the league that can do that."

On offensive strategy

"We thought that that might quiet them down a bit. This is a difficult team to prepare for, and when you give them an opportunity to go ahead and mix and match their personnel, and to use the different blitz packages in Nickel, or in regular defense, it can be problematic. On a short week, we felt like mixing some of that in there to try and keep the game quieted down might be a good formula for us. We felt good about what we were going to do from that. I don't know that I knew we were going to run that many plays from Nickel, but as the game wore on it was something that we just felt good about. "

On defensive strategy

"We were trying to do a combination of sending some pressure at [Eli Manning] a little bit, but we wanted to create some tight coverage with the safeties behind him. Some of it was with the single safety. We didn't want to let him stand back there and get into a rhythm, stand in the pocket and feel comfortable and then pick-and-chose his receivers. I thought that our guys did a pretty good job of being competitive. They've got a good receiving core, their tight end. They used their backs too. We tried to keep [Manning] off-balance a little bit by covering tight, making [Manning] hold the ball a bit, and then mixing in the pressures before he could find somebody. Our guys did a nice job of executing the game plan. I don't think he got into a rhythm as the game wore on, and that was our plan going into it."

On limiting the Giants' running game by maintaining possession

"We were trying. I know that we have been on the flip-side of that now for a few weeks, where we've had very small time-of-possession, and then we fall out of the running game as the game goes on. We knew that they had dominated time-of-possession a lot through the course of the season. If we allowed them to control and maintain possession, we knew it could be a problem. We wanted to run the ball on offense and we thought that our running game offensively could help stop their running game defensively. We tried to keep them off the field as much as possible.

QB KYLE ORTON

On the offense's success against the Giants

"We executed pretty well all night and played with a lot of energy on offense, which was great. The defense got us some turnovers (and) got us some great field position, and we took advantage of it."

On what led to the offensive success against the Giants

"We pretty much played turnover free. I threw the one interception I wish I had back, but I think we threw for probably 230, 240 (yards) and we ran for 135, so we stayed balanced. We were successful on first and second down. We weren't all that great on third down, but it seemed like we did most of our work on first and second down, which we had talked about all week. We went out and executed the game plan pretty well."

On WR Brandon Marshall's performance

"I told him on the one (pass) on the sideline he was trying to make me look bad (by) catching it with one hand like that. He had a great game (and) had a couple really good catches. I thought we got a nice production out of the pass game."

On settling for a field goal on the Broncos' first drive of the second quarter

"It was frustrating to get down there for the second time and to have some mishaps. (We committed) pretty much dumb penalties. That's kind of been our Achilles heel, penalties and red-zone offense. We've got some work to do, certainly, but we're not going to take anything away from the win."

On feeding off of Head Coach Josh McDaniels' emotion

"It's great to have a coach like that (who is) emotional. We've got a lot of emotional guys on our offense. I think guys appreciate it, and I think they thrive off of it."

On the offensive line's performance

"I think they played great. They stayed tight the whole game and didn't allow penetration in the run game and allowed our running backs to get to the second level, which we had talked about all week. We wanted to make their secondary tackle us, and the running backs ran hard. In the pass game, we knew we had to handle the blitz. That was kind of the Giants' (method of) operation. They did a great job of picking it up and giving me enough time, and the receivers got open in a timely fashion."

On getting sacked on the Broncos' first offensive play of the game

"It was maybe a little bit longer of a play and something that (was a) little new wrinkle that we had thrown in. We were trying to hit them on one down the field. It certainly didn't turn out the way that we wanted it to. For the most part, the (offensive line) played great."

On how he feels physically

"I probably feel about as good as everybody else does. It's the second half of the season and past Thanksgiving now. Nobody really feels good. It's just a grind every week to try to get as healthy as you can and do it again."

ILB ANDRA DAVIS

On the win

"It was a huge win for us to get to 7-4. We beat a good team tonight and got a little momentum."

On team identity

"We know who we are. We just know that we have to go out there and play complementary ball in all three phases. Everyone has to pitch in and do their job. We just have to go out there and play together"

On the getting the win

"We played together and everyone contributed. We did not try to go out there and do more than we were supposed to do. We played within the scheme and played for one another, and we were able to get the W."

On having fun

"We were having fun. We were not having fun in the last four weeks and we came out and had fun tonight. When we are having fun, guys feed off of each other, and you want to join in that fun and go out there and make a play. But we had fun within the scheme and that was the number one thing."

CB ANDRE' GOODMAN

On the team win

"That looked like the Broncos from the first six weeks of the season. We have shown two different teams, but this felt different, and the team that showed up and started fast today was a good one."

On getting the win

"There was so much talking over the last four weeks, and I think that once we got off to a 6-0 start, we were starting to feel like such a great team. After the last four losses, we were trying to talk our way back into the win column, and talking never does anything in terms of getting the W on the field. And again it feels good to be back in the win column."

On the remaining schedule

"Five weeks is too far to count. We have one game next week and that to me is what matters. We said we wanted to win most games after Thanksgiving because that is when real football starts and the contenders play their best football. We got off to a good start today."

TE TONY SCHEFFLER

On the short week

"We did not have a whole lot of time to think about anything because of the short week. We were coming off of a bad loss versus San Diego and we just kind of wiped that away. We had a couple of days of cramming information into our heads, and we just went out there and played football."

On being part of the game plan

"It is fun to be a part of it. Just the way things have rolled this year, I have not been able to be a part of it every week, but it is fun to be out there and make some plays. I just want to help the team win, and we had a big win today. Now we can move on and take a couple of days to relax and enjoy the Thanksgiving weekend with our families, and then we can get back to work with Kansas City."

On the play action passing attack

"We have to give credit to the o-line and the running game to open up the play action. We ran the ball really well tonight, Knowshon [Moreno] had his coming out party tonight, and Buck [RB Correll Buckhalter] ran it well too. When you're running the ball so well, it opens up so many things."

WR BRANDON STOKLEY

On snapping the four game losing streak

"It was big obviously. When you lose four in a row, we just had to keep grinding away. No matter what the situation is, it starts on the top with [Broncos Head Coach] Josh [McDaniels], and we've got a good group of leaders on this team so we keep plugging away, week by week, no matter what the situation is."

On getting QB Kyle Orton back in the starting line up

"He showed a lot of heart in the last few weeks, playing through a tough injury. We know he's been hurting so hopefully this weekend will give him some time to heal, and a week and a half from now he'll feel better."

On if the emotion of the game was different from the last four games

"No, we just played better football, and that's really the bottom line. We came out from the start and we did a lot of good things. We hadn't been doing those things the past four weeks. So that was the key, to go out and execute and play good football."

DL VONNIE HOLLIDAY

On getting a win

"This is what we were used to doing for six weeks. You don't want to harp on that, but when Thanksgiving rolls around you want to win. So this was the start of a new season for us. After the four game slide, we had to have guys buying back in and seeing what it's like to play smart, tough football. At times we didn't always play smart but we're working on it."

On if the team rededicated itself against the Giants

"Well, you would like to think that you rededicate yourself every week, but we were just on a slide for whatever reason. We had a big team discussion last week about accountability and going out and laying it all on the line and playing smart football for sixty minutes. That was what we preached from the beginning, and I wasn't even here in March, but I know that was what we were preaching. So it was good to get back in the win column and we've got to build on this."

On stopping the Giants run game

"We knew it was going to be a tough game, a physical game, going against big [Giants RB] Brandon Jacobs, running the ball downhill. We also knew the importance of playing well on first and second down, which we hadn't done the past four weeks. So to go out and play the way we did against the run, against a good physical football team, is very encouraging. At the same time, looking back at the last few weeks, and the let downs in the second halves [of those games], we played complementary football today. Special teams played well. Our gunners, especially [Broncos S] David Bruton, and the rest of those guys went down there and put the hammer down in the return game. And then offensively, we were moving the ball early in the game, just not putting a lot of points on the board, but scoring and using the clock. So on defense, we went out there playing that complementary game, and that's the type of team we want to be."

WR BRANDON MARSHALL

On making one-handed catches

"[Broncos QB] Kyle [Orton] told me to stop making him look bad because those were great balls. He said I could have caught them with two hands."

On watching film to correct mistakes

"I really wasn't too much off, but tonight I got a few opportunities to make plays. Kyle [Broncos QB Orton] believed in me and so I went to Coach [Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels] and got in his ear and told him I could make a play. So he said, ‘hey we'll call it,' and we moved the ball tonight."

On the difference between today's game and last week against the San Diego Chargers

"Honestly, I think it's best for us as a team to worry about today's game only. Back on March 17th when we first got together we said we wanted to play great ball in the beginning [of the season], but our season starts after thanksgiving. So it was great for our team to go out and play well."

Thanksgiving MHR Chalk Talk Edition '09 - NY Giants at Denver Broncos

Steve Nichols — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:00:13 -0000

Football is important to me. I love the game, and it took up a lot of my time when I was a younger man. I loved teaching so much that I was one of the first faculty to arrive at our building each day and one of the last to leave. When I started coaching, I arrived at work about an hour before the kids arrived and left about an hour after practice.

It was one of those jobs (teaching and coaching; I was paid to do both) that one loves enough to look forward to in the morning and to miss on the way home. Then I got a family, and I had the best of both worlds (home and work).

But football isn't everything. It isn't even close. Here are the things I am thankful for today: My God (for everything), our military men and women (who protect everything I hold dear), my country (which allows me to enjoy the fruits of my labor), my family (from where my happiness comes from), my friends (who are like my family, and I include my MHR friends and family here), and my employer (I'm grateful to have a job during these tough economic times, and I'm grateful for each of my co-workers). I just wanted to get that out there.

But you aren't here to hear all of that. You want to know what has happened to our Broncos, and what we have (if anything) to look forward to. I'll give it a stab.

A Military Analogy

Many years ago, while studying foreign policy and military affairs for my grad work, I came across an interesting comparison of Soviet versus American military philosophy during the cold war. I think it is useful for our discussion of the Broncos today.

The US and the NATO allies believed that "quality" was important. We built the F-15 air superiority fighter, confident that a team of 2 such planes could shoot down dozens of opponents before being shot down. We built the M-16 Rifle, confident in the accuracy that such a weapon provided. We built aircraft carriers that contained more war birds than the entire air forces of most countries.

Our weapons systems were the best in the world. Expensive, accurate, precision machines.

Not so with the Soviets. They were fine with the quality gap. Their rationale was, "Fine. Your tank can destroy 40 of ours, but we outnumber you 200 to 1." And to some extent this was true. We had quality, they had quantity. But the differences were even deeper than that.

Take the M-16 rifle. It is very accurate, despite being mass produced. It has many features not found on most assault rifles. But the Soviet AK-47 is a very different weapon on purpose. The M-16 requires a lot of cleaning and maintenance. Drop it in mud or water, and you need to clean it right away (or even after a day on the range). Not so with the AK-47. What it gives up in precision it makes up for in endurance. The small parts are loosely fitted, so dirt, mud, sand and carbon don't slow it down. It can go for weeks or even months without proper cleaning.

Same with the fighter jets. Before an F-15 taxies out to take off, a crew of airmen have to search the runway for everything from rocks to dropped gear to prevent anything from getting sucked into the engines. The F-15 is a precision plane, and deadly to opponents. But it requires hours of maintenance, and clean, cleared runways. Not the Soviet Mig-25. It can land or take off in the dirt, and the on-board computers and sensors aren't built to win air engagements, but to function with little to no care in any environment.

Our carrier task forces can take and hold most countries in the world in land, sea, and even ground engagements. They are deadly examples of "force projection". What's the drawback? Back then, it was lone Soviet bombers with extreme long range air-to-sea missiles. Most of these missiles would get shot down (as would the bombers), but the catch is this: it only takes one missile to destroy the heart of a carrier task force. In other words, the fox loves to have all of our eggs in one basket.

So which was better? We had a Porsche, they had a muscle car (with a hemi). We could win the races, they could win if the fight was a demolition derby. NATO strategy was to slow down a Warsaw Pact invasion long enough for the "quality" of NATO firepower to take the toll on Warsaw Pact forces (known as attrition warfare). As a good American (and a veteran), I think the good guys had it right. It isn't about the numbers, it is about the quality. So, what does this have to do with the Denver Broncos?

The Broncos - A Lot of Quality, but Too Reliant on Precision

Denver has some great, even legendary names on both sides of the ball. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are future HOFers. Elvis Dumervil is one of the best blitzing DE/OLBs in the NFL today. Brandon Marshall is a top ten receiver, and Offensive Tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris are amazing. Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler are terrific TEs, and there are many more players I haven't even mentioned. This is a team full of talent. This is a team full of quality.

In my estimation, the problem is "precision". Let me expalin.

Our own John Bena (MHR Chief Editor and Founder) has noticed that this team has little room for error. We were terrible in the pre-season, and our first six wins were by close margins. As I have written, we are "a team that finds ways to win, but doesn't dominate". We are a team built on precision, the idea that every part has to function just right for the "whole" to prevail. Coach McDaniels calls it "Every guy must DO HIS JOB". It worked great at first. For the first six games, our complex screens were outgunning defenses, and we moved the ball down the field. One mistake, a lost third-down conversion or an interception, and the whole thing would have come apart. Denver is not a shootout team, and EVERYTHING must go right for the team to succeed.

But Denver did it right. Orton didn't throw INTs, and the team made long trips down the field to score. In one game (against SD), every player worked together to help Eddie Royal score two returns for TDs (a punt and a kick). Precision ruled the day. And then we dropped our M-16s in the mud.

With our complex schemes, we rely on everything to go "just right". If Orton is injured, we get a backup QB. If he doesn't meet the "Orton's No INTs" standard, the team is dead in the water. If the team gets a terrible ratio of penalties proportionate to the other team (read Ted Bartlett's excellent treatment of the SD game in his latest ST&NO article), you just can't overcome that. If our punter can't win the field position battle for us, we're in tough waters already. Here's the problem:

We are a team that is built to keep games close, and to win those games. We rely on a dominant defense, and a mistake-free offense that can keep moving the ball forward. On defense, we have to keep scores low since our offense won't be putting up big numbers. On offense, we have to rely on intricate plays with no mistakes as we move the ball down the field yard by yard.

This worked for 6 weeks, even against some of the better teams in the League. We ran our program the way it is supposed to be run, and we caught a lot of good teams off guard. Then we ran into two physical defenses from the top 2 AFC teams of 2008, who beat the snot out of our precision ballet. Then we lost our starting QB for the second half of the WAS game. By the time we faced our fourth loss, we were playing our injured starter (after the backup played so badly we had to go back to Kyle Orton). Inexplicably, we didn't rely upon our attacking defense for the SD game, and seemed to hold back (again, see Ted's great article).

Is our coach bad? Not at all. He is using the players he has in only his first year. Consider that he "inherited" a lot of players, and a dysfunctional defense. He has changed the entire system, and only had one draft to bring in his own guys. He also had to deal with losing the previous QB (who demanded a trade before the coach was even hired). Given the new systems on both sides of the ball, and given that he hasn't yet had the years to assemble his own depth chart, he has done an amazing job. I remain in his corner.

We have what John Bena expected us to have after his observations from training camp. I also think we have what I expected. This is a team that has improved from last year, but is still improving. It is NOT a SB caliber team, nor even a deep playoff team. It is a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs, and wouldn't go far once it got there. But more importantly, it is a team that is on the right path. It is a team that has corrected most of the defensive problems of the last several years, and has held its own on offense, even with a new QB. Give this coach another year or two, and I think the improvements will continue.

We were spoiled by 6 quick wins, and I think many fans were blindsided. Again, let me reference Ted Bartlett. Ted writes that he has become a lot less emotional, and much more analytical. Ted mirrors my own way of looking at the Broncos. Some fans were hateful and spiteful, and all-too quick to lash out out our new coach and QB. 6 quick wins made those bandwagoners look foolish. On the other side of the fence, some fans (after a quick 6-0 start) were talking "13-3" and "Super Bowl". That fell apart pretty quick, didn't it?

Let's not get sucked in by emotion. Let's be thankful that this team has beaten four good teams (NE, CIN, DAL, SD) and two not-so-good teams (CLE and OAK), while losing to three good teams (BAL, PIT, SD) and one poor one (WAS). If, as my friend Tim Lynch has pointed out, we had a 6-4 record but NOT after 6 in a row, many of us would have been happy right now. I agree.

For me, my goal was an 8-8 season, but improved play (especially by the defense). So far, I feel we have done well. I won't let a string of 6 victories turn me into a Kool-Aid drinker, but I sure as heck won't let a 4-game slide turn me into a troll either. We're not a great team and we're not a terrible team. We're in the middle (better off than many teams) with new people in place to effect an improvement. Let's continue to watch our team and see what happens.

In the meantime, as our team grows together and the coach is able to bring in more of his style of players through draft and FA, expect to see a system that is flexible and not as reliant on perfect working parts. As time goes on, I expect to see a more physical team (already starting on the defensive side; not so much with our agile but smaller OL). I also expect to see a wider array of passing plays, many of which will be simpler. Denver has a lot of complex passing plays, but those will become even more effective as the playbook gets bigger, even if the newer plays are simple ones. Remember, this is only Orton's first year in this playbook. Given that, he's doing pretty well.

None of this means that precision is a bad thing. Certainly none of this means that each player shouldn't "do his job". What is DOES mean is that, as the team grows in the current system and gets better at it, the whole of the system will make up for the inevitable times that individual pieces aren't functioning ideally. Right now we aren't there yet. And that's okay.

The NY Giants Game

This is a game many of us penciled in as a potential loss at the start of the season. The Giants won the SB a couple of years ago, and have been a good team. Like Denver, they seem to have had some terrible problems in recent games. Denver started 6-0 then lost four. NY started 5-0 then lost 4. They won their last game (against ATL) in OT.

With both teams at 6-4 (and much of the scheduled opponents in common), here is how the teams match up in different categories (advantage in italics)

DENVER OFFENSE (stat and rank) NEW YORK (Gs) DEFENSE (stat and rank)

Offensive points - 17 (25th) Points allowed - 23.5 (24th)

Yards avg - 323 (22nd) Yards allowed - 282.2 (2nd)

Rushing yards - 112.4 (16th) Rushing yards allowed - 104.8 (11th)

Passing yards - 210.6 (19th) Passing yards allowed - 177.4 (2nd)

NEW YORK (Gs) OFFENSE DENVER DEFENSE

Offensive points - 26.6 (6th) Points allowed - 18.3 (7th)

Yards - 385.5 (4th) Yards allowed - 297.8 (7th)

Rushing yards - 133.8 (7th) Rushing yards allowed - 115.3 (18th)

Passing yards - 251.7 (8th) Passing yards allowed - 182.5 (3rd)

Denver's (only) real advantage seems to be stopping the NY passing game. In the prime stats (points on the board), Denver's offense and Denver's defense only trail their counterparts in NY by one ranking point. Still, the numbers don't look good.

The Giants are top ten in all eight stats, with the exception of rushing yards allowed (11th) and points defensed (24th). Denver, on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the League in all four offensive categories. On defense, the Broncos are top ten in 3 areas, but rank lower half in a fourth.

Is there a light at the end of this tunnel? There are some injury issues for the Giants at RB, and if they have problems running the ball then the Denver defense may have an easier time in the pass defense match-up. Continue to watch MHR for injury updates for both teams.

If Ryan Harris can return at RT, this may increase the Broncos' potential to what it was before he went down. Dawkins is a key playmaker on the defense, so his presence is important.

The Giants are a physical team. They like to control the trenches with physical play, and this can cause problems for the Broncos. Here is what I think both teams need to do to win this game:

Denver's Keys -

If the OL can give Orton time, I think he can do great things in the air. The Giants are good at stopping passes, but I think they do this more with their DL than their DBs. BAL and PIT got pressure on Orton, and Orton missed time against WAS and SD. Give Orton the protection he needs to do his thing.
Find a running game. I don't care how they do it. If Denver continues to slip in the running game, nothing will go right this season. In every game from here on out, Denver needs to try and push the run.
Mistake-free ball. Until Denver is good enough to dominate opponents, they can't afford turnovers or penalties. Play precision ball until you are good enough to play domineering ball.

NYG's Keys -

Win in the trenches. If you can out-muscle Denver's OL and DL, everything else will take care of itself. No number of star players for Denver can make up for a loss at scrimmage.
Don't let Denver get an early lead. Denver's confidence may be in jeopardy. Early success by the Broncos will allow them to play good football. However, if you strike early, you might convince the players that this is more of a "4 loss" team than a "6 win" team. Just as importantly, this year's fans are fickle. Start beating Denver early, and you'll have the crowd booing and leaving early. This makes audibles easier for the visiting team.
Run the ball. Denver's pass defense is better than the run defense. Recently, the run defense has been in decline. Pound the ball up the gut, and you don't allow star players like Bailey, Dawkins, and Dumervil to be such factors.

I hate to say it, but a quick look at each team would seem to make me lean towards the Giants. However, the Giants aren't as good as they have been, and Denver is better than they once were (I'm looking at the teams season by season, not just each week). Both teams "are what they are", which is to say "6-4". So either team can get this one.

A loss would pull either team closer to an even mark for the year, while a win would put them closer to winning 2/3 of their games. Both teams are in 2nd place in their divisions, and need wins to stay in the playoff hunt.

~~~

A brief note. I have been hard on some of Denver's fans this year. I can't stand that many of our fans were bigger "Cutler" fans or "Shanahan" fans than "Denver Broncos" fans. I also couldn't understand the idea of being against our new coach or QB, even though those two guys are united in trying to do what they can for our team. I still don't get those kinds of people.

But some fans "get it", and I love them for it. When Chris Simms came in and tried to be a starting QB this past game, I wasn't pleased by his effort. Chris has a wonderful story, and it would have been triumphant to have seen him come in and play 4 quarters of great football. Instead, Chris came in and fell flat. I remember watching him botch a play and sit on the ground, calling for a face-mask penalty and looking a little foolish. Chris may be a great guy, but I'm not excited by him as our backup QB.

However, when I saw Orton warming up on the sideline, I was filled with mixed emotions. The coach in me said, "No way do we risk our starting QB in this game! If he isn't ready enough to start, keep him off the field!" I still think Orton should have stayed out and rested. The risk was just too high. I wouldn't have had him dress out.

Still, Orton took the field. And the coach side of me gave way to the fan side (the emotional side). "HELL YEAH!" I thought. It was like Superman had arrived, and everything was going to be okay. Well, the game turned out badly, but there was a clear difference in QBs. Orton didn't have a run game to support him, was missing his key RT, and had a defense that wasn't up to its regular standards. Still, he came in with a noticable limp, and played without being mobile enough to properly plant and throw. He showed guts, and he gave the fans a moment of elation. He also wanted to get in the game and save his team, and that's what a leader does. I like this guy.

The fans wanted Orton, and they went wild when he took the field. That's the kind of fans I like. Smart move by the coach? I don't think so. Gutsy? Absolutely. But importantly, it showed the world where our real Denver fans stand - right behind our QB.

I hope those cheers on Sunday went a long way towards erasing the jeers of some fans during the pre-season. Orton is our QB until he isn't. That's the message the fans sent on Sunday, and I like it. A lot.

Poll

Denver -

A little better than last year

360 votes

About the same as last year

57 votes

A little worse than last year

27 votes

444 votes | Poll has closed

True Leadership - Brian Dawkins holds Players-Only meeting

John Bena — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:39:42 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

22 days ago: Denver Broncos' Elvis Dumervil (92) kneels on the ground after the Broncos lost to the San Diego Chargers in their NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2009, in Denver. The Chargers defeated the Broncos 32-3. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

Browse more photos »

The leadership of the Denver Broncos has had enough. Not the leadership on the sidelines, or in the front office, but the leadership that has the only chance of getting the Broncos out of the month-long funk they have been in. The players. Led by Brian Dawkins, the Broncos held a players-only team meeting on Tuesday to 'get on the same page'. According to many of the veterans, that is exactly what happened.

"We are on the same page," tight end Daniel Graham said. "There were a lot of emotions out there. No one likes losing. Frustrations came out a little bit. This team will stick together. We are going to fight through this together.

Of course, much is being made about the sideline skirmish between Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno after the two exchanged words (and a couple of shoves) following Moreno's goal-line fumble in the 2nd quarter of Sunday's 32-3 loss to San Diego - easily the low point of the season thus far.

"What we do as a team, we keep that stuff to ourselves," Dawkins said, according to the Denver Post. "But if we're winning and we have that same argument on the sidelines, does anybody report that? If they do, they say it's our passion. But because we lost that game, and guys were a little emotional, then it's a bad thing.

"I don't buy into that. That's not who we are, who we've been throughout this year. I don't worry about that. Those are things that happen on the sideline, that is passion."

I agree with Dawkins 100% on that front (as if he needs my approval). Of course, on Sunday after the game there were tweets coming from local media in Denver saying the incident was an indication of a fractured locker room, or, more specifically, "the state of affairs with the team right now".

I have always been a fan of emotion - both when things are going well and when things turn sour. Sure, Josh McDaniels will tell Knowshon Moreno he cannot, under any circumstances fumble in that situation, but sometimes a teammate's message is the one that hits home - especially coming from Marshall, who has had his share of key fumbles in the past.

As for the meeting, it seemed to be one of your run-of-the-mill, closed-door sessions teams in all sports like to have when a 'slump-buster' is needed.

"Dawk started it off and guys who had something on their heart, they got up and said something whether it’s you’re a captain or practice squad player, whatever the case may be," said Broncos running back Correll Buckhalter.

Perhaps the best perspective comes from Champ Bailey, who knows that tough talk only goes so far. "I was pretty encouraged to talk to some of my teammates, but what’s going to encourage me more is if we play better. It’s not really what people say.’’

The Broncos now know if they are going to turn the season around it has to start tomorrow night, at home, in prime-time, against a team that has done its share of losing this season as well, and needs a win nearly as bad.

Now on the same page, the Broncos can get back to what they were doing for 6 weeks to start the season - winning as a team.

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

Poll

Do you like the new look of MHR's front page?

Yes! Much Better

116 votes

No! Give us our colors back

162 votes

No opinion

105 votes

383 votes | Poll has closed

Horse Tracks 11/1/09 - Broncos face tough road test in Baltimore; kickoff at 1pm ET, 11am MT

Douglas A. Lee — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:37:34 -0000

NYT - N.F.L. Players And Their Union Share the Blame on Head Injuries - Alan Schwarz

DB - Matchup: Broncos at Ravens - Broncos TV
Chris Hall previews today's game. Knowshon & Co. as Michael Jackson and zombies from Thriller are a must-see clip (final minute).

DB - A Closer Look: Baltimore Ravens - Gray Caldwell

DPP - McDaniels' love of the game - Lindsay Jones
"Our first team meeting that we had, I saw it was going to be totally different," Daniel Graham said. "McDaniels is a player's coach, but he demands a lot from all his players...It's not miserable to come into work, and that's a big thing. He has a positive attitude, and we do too."

DPP - Broncos' Royal feels at home in Denver - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos free agents prove valuable so far - Frank Schwab

LTC - Defensive powers match up - Brian Howell

GJS - Jussel: Broncos are growing up right before our eyes
"Today will reveal a great deal about how much the Broncos have grown."

SN - Ravens need to pull one out for a change - Vinnie Iyer

CSG - Three things to watch against Baltimore - Frank Schwab

AP - Undefeated Meets Desperate In Baltimore - David Ginsburg

DPP - Klis: Pass the playbook, please

DPP - Bailey is ranked first on roster in cap number - Mike Klis

CSG - Broncos top 10: Worst free-agent signings - Frank Schwab
Oh, man. There's a LOT of pain here...

CP - Problem players flourish - Geoff Mosher
"But behind the NFL's best defense and unwavering command from new coach Josh McDaniels, the Broncos took off while Marshall got his act together."

SPT - Broncos alumni fall in game against Sailors All Stars - Joel Reichenberger

PTR - Doctors clear Steelers' Clark for Denver - Kevin Gorman

Ravens News

NFP - Wilson: Ravens' backs to the wall against undefeated Broncos

PF24x7 - Baltimore Ravens’ scouting report - Aaron Wilson

BS - Above the fray - Jamison Hensley

BS - Ravens vs. Broncos: Mike Preston's key matchups

BS - Ravens Insider
"The Ravens tried out kickers Mike Nugent and Connor Barth but didn't sign either one. It's like a precaution if Steve Hauschka can't kick Sunday. He is probable with a right ankle injury."

BS - Ravens Insider: Ravens-Broncos primer - Ken Murray

WT - Defenseless Ravens in unfamiliar territory - Bob Cohn

CCT - Commentary: Ravens almost in 'must-win' situation - Bob Blubaugh

DMN - Losses add up for Ravens' defense - Rick Gosselin

AFC West News

PFW - Chargers LB English exceeding expectations in Year One - Michael Blunda

SDUT - Bolts' win streak vs. Oakland aided by Raider turnovers - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Silence of elders tells on Raiders - Mark Zeigler

SDUT - Dobbins does his talking on the field - Tod Leonard

FH - In NFL, It's Either Shape Up or Fade Out - Kevin Blackistone

KCS - The Star’s 50 year All-Time Chiefs team - Randy Covitz

KCS - Larry Johnson’s fine is cut in half - Kent Babb

SFC - Concussion findings keep getting scarier - Ray Ratto

SFC - Sunday Punch / Hey fellas, time to be Al's pal - Scott Ostler

SFC - RAIDERS / Success might depend on getting a running start - David White

OT - Should Cable send a message? - Monte Poole

NFL News

NYT - Concussions and Congress and the Future Game - Toni Monkovic

NFL - Crowder doesn’t travel, out for Dolphins

NFL - Redskins' Samuels on IR; Blades, Westbrook undergo knee surgery

NFL - Saints rule out DT Ellis due to knee injury

NFL Opinion

NFP - Sunday at the Post - Mike Lombardi
"Who guards Brandon Marshall is a concern, but who can tackle him is a bigger concern. Domonique Foxworth will struggle to cover him, which he knows from practicing against Marshall." I'd say ignore the kicker comment, as I'm pretty sure he's referring to the Ravens...

NFP - Weekend Notes: Harris and Woodson must be physical - Matt Bowen
"I like the idea of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal of the Broncos winning their one-on-one matchups outside the numbers—especially against press man coverage."

NFL - Will owner's 'passer interference' pay off for Titans? - Pat Kirwan
"Okay, I admit it. I was one of the early-season doubters of the Broncos' success...Denver is on the verge of being an elite team."

FH - The Once-Over: Week 8 - Knox Bardeen
"Denver, on defense, needs to pay special attention to the play action, an area of trouble for Denver but a play Baltimore runs very well."

FOX - Countdown: Giants, Eagles QBs have been shaky - John Czarnecki

ABJ - Gunslingers don't necessarily make great quarterbacks - Marla Ridenour

ESPN Insider - FBO: Crunching the Week 8 numbers
"The Ravens should be able to wear down the Broncos' run defense with constant, steady gains. The Ravens rank No. 1 in our Adjusted Line Yards metric and third in overall rush offense DVOA. Although the Broncos rank first in preventing long runs over 10 yards, they are 10th in Adjusted Line Yards and 20th in stuffing opposing runners at the line. Of particular note: The Broncos rank dead last in ALY against runs behind the left tackle. Baltimore's defense ranks 29th in the league on third down with 1-3 yards to go, but second in the league on third down with 4 or more yards to go. "

Champ Bailey wins Broncos' Walter Payton Man of the Year Award

John Bena — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:10:10 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

4 months ago: Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey takes part in drills during a football training camp session conducted in Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

The Denver Broncos selected cornerback Champ Bailey as their Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award recipient for the second consecutive year, it was announced. This prestigious award historically recognizes a player for outstanding leadership both on the field and in the community.

Bailey's name will be submitted to the NFL as the Broncos' nominee for the national Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award, which is announced annually at the Super Bowl. He was selected by a committee of representatives from various business departments within the Broncos' organization and Stadium Management Company from a group of finalists that included tight end Daniel Graham, tackle Ryan Harris and outside linebacker/defensive end Darrell Reid.

Bailey was honored for his years of service supporting the Denver Rescue Mission and most notably the Broncos Youth Center located at its Crossing Facility, which provides long-term rehabilitation and transitional housing. The 11th-year player and eight-time Pro Bowl choice will receive a $10,000 donation from the Broncos toward a charitable cause of his choice.

Graham, Harris and Reid also will receive $2,000 donations toward a charitable cause of their choice.

Additionally, the organization honored several other players for their work in the community. Safeties Josh Barrett and David Bruton, tackle Ryan Clady, cornerback D.J. Johnson, defensive lineman Kenny Peterson, tight end Tony Scheffler, cornerback Jack Williams and inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard were named Denver Broncos Community Ambassadors in recognition of their "up-and-coming" community leadership.

Recent Broncos nominees for the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award include Bailey (2008), cornerback Domonique Foxworth (2007), wide receiver Rod Smith (2006 and '04), safety John Lynch (2005), linebacker Ian Gold (2003) and wide receiver Ed McCaffrey (2002).

Quarterback John Elway (1992) is the only Broncos player to win the national award, which was first given in 1970 and renamed after the Chicago Bears' Pro Football Hall of Fame running back in 1999.