SB Nation - William Gay

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Steelers vs. the Browns II

Ryan Kelsey — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:16:43 -0000

Can Josh Cribbs and the cold weather lead the Browns to an upset?(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

We hate the Steelers. No doubt about it. With a big upset, we could all-but-kill our nemesis' chances at defending their title. Is it possible? Amongst Browns fans, there is a general feel of optimism going into this game. It may be misplaced, but it is not completely without reason. Namely:

1.) They are struggling. They have lost 4 straight. Including games at home to the overrated Bengals and the terrible Raiders and on the road to the average Ravens and really horrible Chiefs. They've battled injuries on both sides of the ball, locker room divisions, and pressure from fans and media. And they haven't handled any of it well. Their defense is filled with questions and their offense isn't scoring. On the other hand, they have lost these four games by a combined 15 points, so maybe a little bad luck is in there

2.) We are playing offense. In two of the last three games, our offense has looked like it belongs in the NFL. Quinn is in the midst of his longest stretch as a starter and looks more and more competent and comfortable (um, 7 TD and 0 INT in the last 3 games?!).

3.) Variables. We are still the underdog (currently, we are 10 point underdogs- according to sportsbook.com). And underdogs need variables. Things like- a home game, on a very short week, at night, historical rivalry, in terribly cold (19, wind chill 0), windy (31 MPH + whatever extra off the lake) and wet (70% chance of snow) weather. Also, injuries. You know that the Browns have been ravaged by injuries, but the Steelers are struggling too. Troy Polamalu is out, William Gay and Hines Ward are questionable. And even though the Browns have a bunch of injuries, it has lead to some surprises and solid play from guys we don't have much information on. (e.g., Moore, Roth, Trusnik, Adams, Rubin)

~~I'll still go through some of the numbers, but not in as much detail as normal. Partially because I don't have as much time (damn short week) and partially because~~ I don't think these numbers mean much of anything given the above 3 factors.

As always, the numbers are all thanks to Football Outsiders.

When the Steelers have the ball

I was surprised to learn that the Steelers are currently ranked 9th in Offensive Efficiency by DVOA (17.3%). I was not surprised to learn that the Browns rank dead last in Defensive Efficiency (23.0%)- dropping two spots after the Chargers torched us for 30 points.

The Steelers are very good in the pass game (9th at 37.9% in DVOA) and very average in the run game (16th at 1.6%). The pass game is anchored by two of the least favorite Pittsburghers: my vote, Ohio's least favorite son, Ben Roethlisberger (9th in both DYAR and DVOA of all qualifying QBs) and Dirty Hines Ward (9th in both DYAR and DVOA of all qualifying WRs). Ward catching 71% of all passes thrown his way is pretty impressive. But that hamstring is going to be very difficult to warm up tomorrow. Santonio Holmes (15.3% DVOA), Heath Miller (15.8%) and Mike Wallace (18.4% DVOA) are also real good options. And while the Browns are actually good at limiting #2 WRs (-7.7% DVOA- that's better than average!!! 12th in the league), we are worst in the league against TEs (See what Antonio Gates did to us last week) and really bad against #1 WRs.

The Steelers usually give up a lot of sacks, because their line isn't very good and Roethlisberger holds on to the ball as long as any quarterback I've ever seen. This year they are 24th in the league, giving up sacks on 7.4% of all drop backs. The Browns rank 17th in the league, sacking the QB on 6.3% of opponent drop backs.

The Browns' defense against the run is about 10% worse than average, 29th in the league. Which is blah enough. But with all the injuries, especially to Shaun Rogers, we are probably worse than that. Not good considering the wind and snow and cold will likely force more running than normal. The mediocre running game of Pittsburgh is lead by the mediocre Rashard Mendenhall (19th in the league at 4.5% DVOA). Mewelde Moore (-19.5%) and Not So Fast Anymore But Still Faster Than Me Willie Parker (-26.6%) are having pitiful seasons.

When the Browns have the Ball

The juggernaut that is the Browns Offense has juggernauted all the way up to 28th in overall efficiency. That's up 3 spots from last week. We now are a more efficient offense over the course of this season than the Chicago Bears. Wow. Before that Detroit game this didn't seem even close to possible. The Browns rank 30th in pass efficiency as a team and 23rd in run efficiency. Even with the Steelers' recent struggles, they are still a very good defense, ranking 13th against the pass and 6th against the run in DVOA- good for 10th overall. But before you get too scared, they were ranked 6th before former ~~bum off the street during the awful 08 Browns Season~~ Browns legend Bruce Gradkowski torched them last just three days ago.* The Steelers miss Polamalu. And they, generally, are not playing well in the secondary.

*Seriously, Gradkowski had the career day of all career days. He passed for 308 yards (on 20-33 passing), 3 TDs (0 INTs), and a 121.8 QB rating. Not only were each of those numbers career highs, but he has never come close to a day like that in 24 other games in the league. The last time he faced the Steelers, as the Browns starter in Week 17 last season, his rating was 1.0. That isn't a typo. 1.0. Or 9.5 points WORSE than Derek Anderson's worst game in his career- also, DA's most recent.

Further emphasizing the struggles of the secondary, the Steelers are below average against every type of receiver, except running backs (usually covered by linebackers)- they rank 8th against throws to RBs. So if Quinn is going to keep having success through the air, it probably won't be to Harrison/Jennings/Vickers this week. Quinn is moving up the QB standings rapidly. He is 28th now in both DYAR and DVOA. And that is despite not having a receiver in the top 75 in DYAR or DVOA.

The Browns running game has benefited from variety. They get good contributions from Brady Quinn's scrambling, Josh Cribbs in the wildcat- both handing off and keeping, and reverses to Cribbs. So while Chris Jennings and Jerome Harrison aren't very good, their improving efforts with the (sometimes misplaced, and usually not frequent enough) creativity from other parts of the run game result in a decent unit. Again, this is going to be even more important because of the conditions. Each team will have plenty of runs. I won't mind seeing the wildcat a HUGE number of times. Anything less than 10 plays from that formation would be a disappointment in my mind.

Special Teams

We're number 1!! After several weeks in the 2 spot behind Minnesota, the Browns have taken over the top spot in overall special teams efficiency at 7.0% DVOA. The Browns have the #1 punt return team and the #5 kick return team. They are above average in each other phase of special teams. The Steelers are 31st in special teams overall, mainly because they are -30.6% in DVOA on kick coverage! That is an absurd variance from average for any special teams unit. In fact, only one other special teams unit is more than 15% from league average in either direction (Green Bay is -16% on punt coverage). Think about this. They are 30% worse than league average on kicking off. No team in the last 5 seasons has been 30% worse than average at any single part of special teams. (Only the Browns 2007 kick off unit has been 30% BETTER than league average). And only 3 times has any part of any teams' special teams been ranked more than 20% worse than average. We aren't just talking historically bad,this might be THE reason the Steelers are .500 against a weak schedule, despite having a top 10 offense and top 10 defense.

Special Teams is another unit that will be affected heavily by the weather. Again, variables. Good for the underdog. Phil Dawson seems to do well on bad fields, and while he has tired in past seasons late in the year, he should be fresh this year as he missed much of the first half due to injury. Josh Reed also has had success in inclement kicking conditions, given that he plays 8 games a year on the mush that is the Heinz Field "grass".

Conclusions and Questions

Like I said, this one is all about variables, not really the stats. Still, we need to have a sound game plan to maximize our chances at winning and salvaging some very good feelings for a very rough season. A win wouldn't erase everything, but its something the players, coaches, what exists of the front office, and the fans would feel very good about.

Three questions that will determine the outcome:

1. Will the weather effectively hide our defensive injuries and struggles?

2. Will the Steelers special teams continue to let them down- especially the kick coverage unit?

3. Can Brady Quinn exploit a struggling secondary, or if the weather is too bad, can he continue to avoid turnovers?

With a giant assist to Mother Nature and the ghosts of past Browns teams, I think we finally will avoid losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers!

Browns 13

Steelers 13

Uninformed Recap: Ravens Beat Steelers in OT, 20-17

Brandon — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The Steelers at Ravens game was a twofer. Here's the boxscore. It had 2 of the Green Bay Packers' next 3 opponents.

In between their games against the Ravens and Steelers, the Packers play the Bears in Chicago. I watched a little of the Bears at Vikings game, but what I did see was ugly (for the Bears). Their defense has looked bad for weeks, and they couldn't do anything to stop the Vikings. 537 yards for the Vikings, and the Bears only had 169. In the 2nd quarter, despite their meager offensive performance, the Bears drove twice into Vikings territory, only to watch QB Jay Cutler throw back-to-back drive killing INTs. And why did they give up their (high) 2nd round pick in 2010 for DE Gaines Adams? He only has 3 tackles in 6 games.

As far as the Steelers at Ravens game goes, my recap is uninformed because I don't know a lot about either team. They both have great defenses, through week 11, according to Football Outsiders, the Steelers had the No. 3 defense and the Ravens' D was No. 4.

The Steelers were able to run straight up the middle, which was where RB Rashard Mendenhall, who had 24 carries for 95 yards (4.0 YPC), went every time he carried the ball. The Ravens D might have lost a step. Just as the Packers have lost Kampman and Harris, the Ravens have lost their top pass rusher, LB Terrell Suggs (torn MCL), and a starting cornerback, Fabian Washington (torn ACL). But the Steelers were forced to start 2nd year QB Dennis Dixon, his first career start, and he was just overmatched. On the Steelers final offensive play, Dixon misread a zone blitz and he threw an INT right at the Ravens' rookie defensive lineman. Overall, Dixon only completed 12 of 26 attempts for 145 yards, but you could tell at times during the game that the Steelers offensive coordinator had lost some faith in him.

The Ravens offense is built around getting the ball to WR Derrick Mason and RB Ray Rice. Though WR Mark Clayton had a big game, 7 catches for 129 yards, that was due in large part to the awful coverage by Steelers CB William Gay. Mason is still a good, Donald Driver type receiver. Rice is an explosive playmaker and he's maybe even more dangerous as a receiver. I don't see how any team can cover him with a linebacker. Despite generating 393 yards of offense, it was boom-or-bust. Most of that yardage came on their 3 scoring drives, while the rest of the time they struggled and were forced to punt 6 times. Their offense isn't any better than the Vikings or Cowboys.

And while the Packers are still No. 1 in most penalty yards allowed per game, the Ravens are a close 2nd. They had 9 penalties for 80 yards against the Steelers, including a killer special teams penalty that erased a huge punt return near the end of regulation. If that return hadn't been called back, the Ravens would likely have kicked a late game winning FG, instead of having to win in OT.

The Packers and Ravens are two comparable teams, and both teams need to keep winning to keep pace for a wild card spot.

Interview With Pro Football Focus Reveals Excellent Analysis, New Jinx

ncoolong — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:51:14 -0000

BTSC writer Neal Coolong met up with one of the writers of Pro Football Focus, a web site dedicated to providing thorough and detailed statistics on every NFL player in every game. Neil and six other members of the site have been in existence since 2007, and were recently mentioned in SI writer Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column (beating Coolong to the punch, he's yelled at King since then). The interview took place over several emails in the past two weeks, here are the highlights:

NC: First off, thanks for doing this. I'll admit, when a co-worker of mine gave me the link to this site, my productivity at work was reduced greatly. So maybe I shouldn't be thanking you. But if I'm pissed at anyone, it's at Peter King for beating me to giving you guys the recognition I feel you deserve (No. 8 of 10 Things I Think I Think). Who does he think he is, anyway? Give me a little background. Who are you guys? How many people do you have on staff? How long has the site been up?

PFF: The site in some form or another has been up since 2006. In it’s initial guise it was more a vehicle for displaying my limited data than anything else. There’s a whole section on how we got going in the "About" tab under the "History" section which explains a lot more about how we started.

At the moment we have 7 guys working on the site. Interestingly (or perhaps shockingly) all bar one of us are based outside the US with the majority of us based in the UK.

NC: That brings me to the issue of grading, which is thoroughly explained here.

I'll paraphrase you, "We are not grading style or technique; just result...We've all heard the terms knee-bender, stiff hips, inconsistent footwork or over-extension etc. but as far as we're concerned it doesn't matter whether you know what they mean or not. All we care about is the result."

So you're grading the pure results of the play, black and white, win or lose. Personally, I love that approach in terms of ranking an evaluating individual players. Answer me this, though, in particular reference to the defensive backs, do you feel the amount of statistical data you keep on each player fairly takes into account the roles of that particular player in that particular defense?

For example, Ike Taylor and William Gay play in a different defensive scheme than, say, Antoine Winfield. While I am not surprised Winfield scores as highly as he does, do you feel your evaluations hold up when compared to his peers? Is it fair? Or is your intention more to show the results of individual players, without the concern of how they stack up against their peers?

PFF: I don’t think we’ll ever get a full view on secondary or WR play until the NFL allow us access to game film so we can actually grade each player on each play (I’m led to believe hell will be freezing over shortly so we should be OK). I think until then everything is a fudge to some degree, regardless of the scheme.

That said I think we do more than anyone else with equal access. Most people who delve into advanced type stats will just note down whose in coverage on a play. While we also compile the base stats for coverage we do it more for completeness than anything else. The truth of the matter is we try to use a combination of factors when rating CBs but go more off our grading than anything. The base statistics can tell a lot of lies regardless of whether the coverage is zone, man or some combination. Let me give you a few examples:

A team run a WR screen at a CB who is in man coverage. The CB is double-teamed by screen blocks and can do nothing but because of missed tackles by other players the screen goes for 80 yards and a TD. The CB was clearly in coverage and hence the yardage goes against him.
A CB is beaten badly for a reception but the WR then drops the ball.
Another CB is beaten badly and gives up a 70 yard TD by peeking in the backfield (Chris McAlister has patent pending on this) but the play is called back on a holding call

In the first of these the CB has done nothing wrong and is penalised by having 80 yards and a TD logged against him. In the latter two the CB has been poor but is rewarded with incomplete passes to his credit. Obviously in our grading the CB would not be penalised in the first but marked down significantly in the others.

To come back to the original question of schemes, I think the situation with CBs is fairly straight forward. The CB almost always has initial responsibility for the man across from them, he starts off in their zone and to all intents and purposes is in man coverage until such time as he’s handed off to a LB (on a crossing route) or a Safety (on a deeper route). As soon as he’s handed the guy off (and that point is normally very easy to judge) he no longer has responsibility. So the CB stats, taking into account my reservations above, are pretty accurate from a standpoint of responsibility and performance.

So I guess the question is back to you… can you give me an example where or why you think a Steeler CB may be at a disadvantage in our ratings? We were pretty high on both Bryant McFadden and William Gay last year.

NC: I wasn't suggesting they were at a disadvantage, I was simply using the Steelers players in a 3-4 zone blitzing scheme as opposed to Antoine Winfield, who plays in a Cover 2. I'd likely be hunted down and beaten up if I brought up Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph.

But since you mentioned Bryant McFadden, and I felt he was a very strong producer on last year's Super Bowl team, do you feel his play has really fallen off that much (currently 79th on your CB rankings)? William Gay hasn't produced, per your stats, nearly as much this year as he did last year.

I'm gonna have to plant a phrase on you: The Pro Football Focus Jinx. For Steelers Players. Cornerbacks in Particular.

There maybe something to be said for an overall scheme benefitting an individual players skills more than another, but that's a separate issue. Lemme ask you this, do you think you could apply your approach on Pro Football Focus to coaching? Do you think there is a measurable way to analyze coaches, beyond the normal wins/losses metrics? I understand any coach will tell you wins are all that matters, but do you think there is a statistical measurement for coaches?

PFF: Certainly Bryant doesn’t look as solid as he was last year. In 2009 he was in coverage for 344 snaps, gave up 342 yards and a TD, defensed 5 passes and intercepted a further 2. In addition he held up well in run defense and was pretty consistent in terms of having very few off days but never particularly setting the world on fire. It was therefore no surprise at all when he was picked up by the Cards who’d got a bit fed up with Rod Hood’s inconsistency and having two corners playing in that style (I’m not sure anybody thinks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will stop being "mercurial" any time soon) was a liability.

That said he appears to have morphed from a relatively safe pair of hands into Rod Hood II. Even excluding the W10 game vs. Seattle, Bryant has already been in coverage only 23 snaps less than last year and has had some decent performances but also some bad games. So far he has been marginally better than Rod Hood in 2008 but isn’t as sure as he was last year for you guys. In those 321 snaps he hasn’t given up a TD and he’s defensed 8 passes which is great but he’s also given up 467 yards including 171 YAC. All this suggests a more aggressive approach since the move and I’ve seen that on tape too.

Regarding William Gay I’d just be a little cautious when using the rankings in that way (a few points is very insignificant) and what we’ve seen is a reasonably average NFL corner who has had some good days (most notably against the Chargers) but has been less effective of late. Last year he was above average but as a part-time player and he’s already had a good couple of games worth of snaps in coverage more than last year.

If you wish to talk jinx it’s not the Steelers who should be concerned…… we’ve had a far more negative effect on the Bengals at a player level. We name Evan Mathis and Keith Rivers to our mid-season All-Pro and both are injured. You should be paying us to put their CBs on the team too!

On the coaching question it’s something I notice analyzing games; the whole play is executed well but it doesn’t work… at all. You wonder what they were thinking when they drew it up. That said it doesn’t happen often enough to be significant in my view and as we break down each play, 95% of the time I’d guess, a play works or fails because individual players either blow assignments or do something extraordinary. Obviously this is a coaching responsibility too for either a) not getting someone good enough to do the job b)not teaching them well enough or c)not motivating them sufficiently to see it through.

I suppose something we could do to check at a strategy level what coaches are performing (although I have absolutely no idea as to how relevant it might be) is to compare overall team performances on offense and defense with records. For example I would contend the Saints have a lot of below average players on defense (and some very good ones in the secondary) but haven’t lost a game and rank 17th in points allowed and 21st in defense. It might be expected that they would be a bit worse than that.

NC: Well, we still may see Cincinnati in the playoffs, so there's still time. How much would it cost to ensure the ratings of Joseph, Hall and their impressive nickel back, Morgan Trent, go way down? I'll get with Blitzburgh (our publisher) and work out some kind of payment. I'm not talking dismemberment or death here, just maybe like a debilitating stomach flu...

Obviously with the amount of games/plays you're watching on a regular basis, you have to develop a sense of overall teams as well. You mentioned the Saints, do you think they are the best team in football through nine weeks? Does any team have a clear advantage over the field in terms of Super Bowl contention right now?

PFF: It’s interesting because no team is without some significant weakness and I could genuinely still see 13 teams winning. My Preseason pick was the Vikings, mostly because of their defense but as it turned out their offense has been better than suspected and their defense worse.

I’m really sorry to tell you this but regardless of last weeks result I still think the Steelers are the best team in the AFC (and probably the NFL); just too much balance, too many quality players in every unit. Apologies for damning you to a season without playoffs.

In the NFC it’s difficult to look past the Saints but the cracks that have always been in the defense are starting to widen and I’m not going to get off an 8-1 horse at this stage.

NC: I was like you, I called the Steelers and Vikings at the beginning of training camp (pre-Favre) and it was because of the defense of those teams. Both of the Steelers recent championship teams had slides at or right after the mid-season point. There's still a ton of football to be played.

There seems to be enough football to play, and a tight enough race to wonder who will be league MVP. Who's your horse in that race?

PFF: For me MVP is all about what would happen if you remove that player from the team. We saw last year without Brady the Patriots were still functional as were the Steelers when Ben was hurt. Minnesota was still a playoff team without Favre. I think the same would be true this year too.

Without Brees and Manning I don’t think either the Saints or the Colts are over .5 and truthfully I believe the Colts record would be 2-7 not 9-0. When we analyze QBs we grade each pass and In the past we have seen games where we have not given Peyton a single negative mark. I think he’s likely to go down as the best of all time and a worthy MVP in 2009.

On a lighter note the most ridiculous comment I’ve ever heard was a sentence from Dan Patrick in SI which started with the phrase "It’s debatable which Manning brother is the better QB………"

NC: Almost as ridiculous as the idea that Kansas City would beat Pittsburgh...any given Sunday, right?

PFF: I’m really sorry, as soon as I said "I liked the Steelers in the AFC", I knew something like this would happen.

NC: Ok, we're blaming you.

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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The Vikings Red Zone Review, Sponsored by Comcast

Gonzo — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 16:04:59 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Don't worry, man. . .no way we get that unlucky every week. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Yes, the latest most important regular season game in the history of any football season ever kicks off in a little more than five hours, but we still need to take one final look back at Minnesota's first loss of 2009, as painful as it might be to do so. As always, this look at the Vikings' red zone prowess is brought to you by the folks at Comcast, the providers of the NFL's Red Zone channel. The Red Zone channel is, bar none, the best way cable TV offers you to keep track of all the biggest plays and all the huge scores at one time. Red zone success is a big indicator of team success, and nobody is more successful in bringing you the biggest and most important plays of the day than the Comcast Red Zone channel.

Well, last week the Steelers provided the Vikings with their biggest challenge of the season to date, and the Vikings responded by. . .putting up their worst red zone performance of the year. This is what we in the business call "bad timing."

Vikings Red Zone trips - 5
Vikings Red Zone scores - 2 (1 TD, 1 FG)
Red Zone touchdown percentage - 20%

Definitely not the numbers one wants to see against a team the caliber of the defending world champions.

The game got off to a bit of a slow start for the Vikings, as they pretty much failed to move the football at all on their first three drives, and Chris Kluwe kept giving the Steelers good field position by shanking punts of 35 and 19 yards. After said 19-yarder, the Steelers drove all the way down to the Minnesota 4-yard line, and appeared to have a touchdown on a pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes, but an offensive pass interference penalty on Heath Miller wiped it out. A couple of plays later, the Steelers were forced to settle for a 39-yard field goal by Jeff Reed to make the score 3-0, Pittsburgh.

Into the second quarter, the two teams exchanged punts again, and with 10:34 left in the half, the Vikings took over from their own 24. Brett Favre converted a huge first down early in the drive, as he hit Percy Harvin on the left sideline for 28 yards on third and six to move the ball into Steeler territory. Favre connected on passes to Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian (twice) and Visanthe Shiancoe, and Adrian Peterson picked up another big third down to put the ball at the Pittsburgh 3. The drive concluded with the best running back in football slamming his way into the end zone from two yards out, and the Vikings took a 7-3 lead. Peterson had four carries for 16 yards on the drive, and Favre connected on five of seven passes for 60 yards.

Neither team would make a red zone appearance for the remainder of the first half, although the Steelers did pick up a touchdown pass on a 40-yard connection from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace ~~of 60 Minutes fame~~ to make the score 10-7 in favor of Pittsburgh going into the locker room.

After the Vikings allowed the Steelers another field goal to start the first half, a 27-yarder by Jeff Reed, the Vikings set about putting together the drive that, in my opinion, decided the football game. Starting from their own 35 after a nice kick return by Percy Harvin, the Vikings made their way to the Pittsburgh 35-yard line, where they faced 4th and 1. Favre took the snap, faded to his left, and fired a bullet to Sidney Rice. Rice made the catch and turned the play into a 34-yard catch and run that set the Vikings up inside the Steelers' 1-yard line. Unfortunately, after an unsuccessful run by Peterson and two incomplete passes, Brad Childress elected to settle for an 18-yard Ryan Longwell field goal rather than attempting to slam it into the end zone on 4th and about six inches. The field goal made the score 13-10 in favor of Pittsburgh. Peterson had just two carries for two yards on the drive, and the remaining 72 yards were picked up by Brett Favre, as he completed seven of ten passes on the drive.

After the teams exchanged three and outs, the Vikings allowed the Steelers to drive into the red zone again on a big pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes that allowed Pittsburgh to set up and the Vikings' 9-yard line. However, on first and goal, Steelers' running back Rashard Mendenhall inexplicably decided that he was going to dive all the way into the end zone from the five yard line, and managed to get the ball knocked out by big Pat Williams in the process. The Vikings recovered the ensuing fumble, and methodically put together a very impressive drive.

Starting from the Pittsburgh 3-yard line, the Vikings passed their way down the field. Favre was hitting everything in sight, completing passes to Rice and Shiancoe, and even getting Greg Lewis involved in the act. Highlighting the drive was an absolutely ridiculous 26-yard reception by Rice that converted a big 3rd and 18 for the Beloved Purple. After Purple Jesus moved the Vikings into the Pittsburgh red zone with a 19-yard run and an 11-yard catch, the Vikings appeared to score the go-ahead touchdown on a 10-yarder from Favre to Rice, but a horrendous tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan negated the play and pushed the Vikings back. (For the record. . .was it a BS call? You're damn right it was a BS call.) On third and 8, Favre dropped back to pass, and as he was getting ready to fire, he got the ball knocked out of his hands by Pittsburgh defensive lineman Brent Kiesel. The fumble was recovered by Lamar Woodley at the 23, and he rumbled all the way to the other end for a 77-yard fumble return. Rather than going up 17-13, the Vikings now found themselves down 20-10.and seemingly out of it. This was the first drive the Vikings experienced all season where they reached the red zone and failed to score points, and it couldn't have come at a worse time.

However, the dark cloud was lifted temporarily as Harvin made his presence felt again, taking the ensuing Jeff Reed kickoff and blasting 88 yards for a touchdown. Harvin managed to run through Reed's ridiculous "tackle" attempt and turn on the jets to put the Vikings right back into the game at 20-17.

The Vikings' defense did what they needed to do and forced the Steelers to punt, starting their next drive at their own 26. Once again, Favre moved the Vikings along, but the drive was highlighted by Peterson pushing up on the "truck stick" against Steelers' CB William Gay on a 29-yard catch and run that moved the Vikings to the Steeler 26. On second and 3 from the Pittsburgh 19, Favre flipped a screen pass to Chester Taylor, who appeared to be well-covered. Still, the pass bounced off of Taylor's hands and into the waiting arms of LB Keyaron Fox, who proceeded to go 82 yards for the score that put the dagger into Minnesota's hopes. The final score was 27-17. The Vikings technically made it into the end zone on their final desperation drive, but although it counts in the NFL's official stats, it really doesn't mean much.

So now, for the season, the Vikings have scored points on 23 of their 26 red zone trips, having notched 13 touchdowns and 10 Ryan Longwell field goals. The Minnesota red zone defense continues to be outstanding, as Viking opponents have reached the red zone 17 times in seven games, and have only come away with six touchdowns and five field goals. On six trips into the red zone, opposing teams have come away with no points against Minnesota's defense.

Hopefully the Vikings' offense can get their red zone prowess back this afternoon at the House that Brett Favre (Re)Built.

No Aaron, That's Not a Zombie Chasing You; it's Jared Allen

ericj69 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 20:14:45 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

"BBRRRAAAAAAAIIIIIINNNS!!"

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It's Halloween Weekend, which is far and away my favorite drinking holiday of the year.

It's also "Favregeddon II: The Lambeau Massacre" Weekend.

"Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" comes out today. (Although apparently it's not a nationwide release...but still, it's the sequel to one of my favorite movies of all time!)

I may have a chance to head to Green Bay on Sunday to interview Bart Starr, Paul Krause, and Jan Stenerud thanks to the ongoing JCPenney/Van Heusen Hall of Fame promotion tour. (Still pending, but it sounds promising! If you haven't read MilCardFan's interview with Krause yet, do it. Great read.)

If you guessed that I'm more excited than a puppy with two tails right now, you'd be correct. If you thought that I wasn't going to tie in a cheesy Halloween gimmick throughout this article, then I'd like to be the first to welcome you to our site.

First of all, there is one irrefutable reason why Halloween kicks so much ass. No, it isn't candy--it's because this is the one day of the year that gives every girl full license to dress as slutty as they want without any social repercussions. Think about it--98% of women's costumes are "Sexy <fill in the blank>." Sexy Cat, Sexy Police Officer, Sexy Devil, Sexy Cowgirl, Sexy French Maid (is there a Non-Sexy French Maid?)--they're all variations of the same basic premise. (For instance, my girlfriend is going to be Sexy Rapunzel at our Halloween party tonight, and I couldn't be happier. Over/under on off-color hair-pulling jokes from me tonight: 11.5.) Throw in the fact that everyone's inhibitions are inexplicably lowered by about 80% when wearing a disguise of any sort and you got yourself one hell of an entertaining holiday.

(Note to everyone with younger kids: sorry for reminding you how much fun Halloween used to be a few years back. I'm sure you'll have fun trying to put your kids to bed tomorrow night after they have ingested enough sugar to put a wildebeest into a coma.)

As for Sunday's game, I won't bore you with minutiae about each team. It's the Vikings and Packers. We're sorta familiar with each other already. Instead, I'll dole out the classic Halloween costumes that best suit various personnel on each team. (See, I told you there would be a cheesy Halloween gimmick!)

Zombies: They're always coming after you. It seems like you're surrounded by them at every turn. They won't stop until they're on top of you, ripping you limb from limb and eating your brains. Sounds like Jared Allen and rest of the Vikings defensive line to me!

Decapitated Zombies: Zombies are scary. Dead zombies are just gross. They don't move around at all; they're decrepid, smell awful, and don't pose a threat of any kind. That pretty much sums up the Packers offensive line, no?

Mummy: This costume goes to Aaron Rodgers. Even though everyone assumes a mummy should be dead and is bandaged up from head to toe, he's still scary and hard to kill. Rodgers has taken an absolute beating all year thanks to the Decapitated Zombies, yet he's still the second rated passer in the league. Even as a Vikings fan, I have to appreciate that. He gives the Packers a chance to win all by himself at times.

Werewolf: This one has to go to Brett Favre. Just like a werewolf, he can be a lethal, unstoppable force. But the drawback is that you're never sure when he's going to change in certain conditions. Even worse, werewolves can't control when they'll change. I know Favre has been more or less outstanding in 2009, but I wonder if returning to Lambeau will be his Full Moon. I don't think there's a stat line from him that would surprise me. 24/28, 338 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT? Sure. 16/43, 113 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT? I could see it. I'm just hoping we get the cool Michael J. Fox "Teenwolf" werewolf, not the creepy Jack NIcholson "Wolf" werewolf.

(More costumes and my Week 8 NFL picks after the jump.)

I told you Halloween is awesome.

Vampire: While vampires are immortal and can strike out of the dark at any time, they can just as easily be killed by showing them a little daylight. This costume goes to the entire 2009 Vikings team. At times, it has looked like nothing can kill us. Thanks to the likes of Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and AP, we can go for the other team's throat without warning. Unfortunately, our tendency to give up the big play this year has left us very vulnerable--every time we show the other team some daylight, a sure win turns to dust. The Ray Rice plays, the Pittsburgh defensive TD's, the San Fran blocked field goal, the Jermichael Finley Show in Week 4...all of the big plays have made victories uncomfortably close, and it cost us a win last week. If we want to leave Lambeau with a stranglehold on the NFC North, we can't let big plays be our stake through the heart.

Purple Jesus: What's that you say? Adrian Peterson isn't a traditional costume at all? You think I have to assign something like "Ghost" or "Goblin" to the best player in the NFL? Go ahead, I dare you to try and categorize AP with a Halloween gimmick. See what happens. Isn't that right, William Gay?

The Vikings proved they were the better team a month ago. Nothing has happened in the past month to change that fact. Unless Werewolf Favre shows up at the wrong time, I don't see this game going any different than the one at the Dome.

Prediction: Vikings 31, Packers 20

As for the rest of my Week 8 NFL Picks (home team in CAPS):

RAVENS over Broncos: The only logic I have with this pick is that the Broncos can't possibly be 7-0 good and the Ravens can't possibly be 3-4 bad...can they?

BEARS over Browns: My Eliminator pick of the week. (I'm 7-0 and still alive for those keeping track at home.) At this point I think Cleveland fans should start visiting people with terminal illnesses to get a new perspective on life. I'm not saying the Browns fans would be cheered up though. I think someone dying might realize it could be much worse. Their suffering will probably end soon, while there's no end in sight for the Browns.

COWBOYS over Seahawks: Who knows which Seahawks team will show up, but one thing is for sure: Miles Austin is scary. And he's a pretty good wide receiver.

GAHHHHH!! (Image from Kissing Suzy Kolber)

LIONS over Rams: Oh my God, the Detroit Lions are favored in a game! If you even think about watching this game, go take a shower to get the filth off of you.

Texans over BILLS: Houston is the only road favorite this week. Isn't that SPOOKY?? (And you thought the Halloween theme was over!! MUUUUAHAHAHAHAHA)

COLTS over 49ers: Alex Smith rises from the dead to take over as the starter for the Niners. (Boom! More Halloween analogies! I'm unstoppable!) He'll have plenty of chances to prove that his arm is superior to Shaun Hill's, because they're going to be down by a lot the whole game.

JETS over Dolphins: For both teams, the less their quarterback is involved in the offense, the better their team performs. After last week's games, it looks like the Jets have figured out how to minimize Mark Sanchez more than the Dolphins can hide Chad Henne.

CHARGERS over Raiders: You know how most teams try to "keep the ball out of so and so's hands?" I think Norv Turner's strategy this week should be "keep the ball IN JaMarcus Russell's hands." Nothing but good things can happen for the Chargers.

Jaguars over TITANS: I'm going to make Vince Young prove he doesn't suck before I pick his winless team, even if it is against a mediocre Jags squad.

CARDINALS over Panthers: I still don't completely trust the Cards, but they look poised to repeat in the NFC West after their big win in New York. Meanwhile, John Fox is like the corner guy for a boxer that's too proud to throw in the towel. His guy is just getting murdered out there, yet he still won't pull the plug. Or maybe he just knows that Jake Delhomme's backups are equally as awful.

Giants over EAGLES: The G-Men haven't looked great the past two weeks, but Brian Westbrook is still...get this...QUESTIONABLE for the game thanks to a concussion last week! I wonder who is second place all-time being listed as Questionable for a game, behind Westrbook's career mark of 3,431? Shouldn't his nickname be "Q" by now? He has caused more agony for fantasy owners than all other players combined. My roommate last year nearly went bipolar after worrying about Westbrook's playing status so much.

SAINTS over Falcons: The New Orleans offense is making my Madden team jealous. Drew Brees turned the ball over four times last week and they still lit up the Dolphins for 46 points. I'm not picking against the Saints until someone outscores them.

Last week: 9-4

Season so far: 75-28

AD Rocks Pittsburgh!

ccmachine — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 03:02:45 -0000

Adrian Peterson runs over William Gay (via jaredballanger)

Around the NFC North: Vikings and Bears

Brandon — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:15:28 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

about 1 month ago: Pittsburgh Steelers' Keyaron Fox (57) returns an interception 82-yards for a touchdown as Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre (4) watches in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009. The Steelers won 27-17. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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I watched most of the Minnesota Vikings loss in Pittsburgh, 27 to 17, and it was a great loss for the Packers in a couple ways. First, it's their first loss of the season, and the Packers only trail them by 1 game in the loss column. Second, it seemed like a really physical game, and both teams must be hurting after it. CB William Gay certainly is after RB Adrian Peterson ran him over. Still, it wasn't a sign of big trouble either. The Vikings are still a really good football team. From Daily Norseman:

There were two big missed opportunities for the Vikings -- an absurd tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan that wiped away a Sidney Rice touchdown, and the pass that went through Chester Taylor's hands and sealed the deal for the Steelers. Both drives could have resulted in Viking touchdowns, and yet each resulted in seven for the Steelers...

Certainly, those two plays are the most obvious reasons for the defeat, but keep in mind some other factors. We saw glimpses of the old, undisciplined Vikings today -- 11 penalties for 78 yards. Several of those penalties were garbage calls, but the fact remains that you won't win too many games on the road with so many unforced errors...

It stings that a gutsy defensive effort was wasted, and it stings that numerous opportunities to win this one also went to waste. But it's important to keep perspective. Disappointing as this game is, it's 1/16 of the season.

I didn't watch the game phoned in by the Chicago Bears. I expected the Bengals to win, but I didn't expect a 45-10 blowout. From Windy City Gridiron:

This is one of those games that just hurts the soul...

At 3-3 it isn't over for the Bears, especially with the Cleveland Browns coming to town next week, but this game is a blueprint game for every team that we play the rest of the year. They are going to do the same type of things until we can prove we can stop them.

This was a total collapse game.

Steelers Defense Delivers Knockout Punch In 4th Quarter, Knock Vikings From The Ranks Of The Undefeated

Blitzburgh — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:36:08 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

about 1 month ago: A Pittsburgh Steelers fan cheers from the upper deck of Heinz Field during the first quarter of an NFL football game between the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Wow, the Pittsburgh Steelers find a way to win for the fourth consecutive week. The defense hadn't really won a ballgame for the Steelers this year, and on Sunday they again had their struggles defending the pass. But for the first time all season really, Dick LeBeau's defense came up with multiple game-changing plays that dictated the outcome. Here's some preliminary thoughts about the 27-17 victory.

* There are still some troubling issues with the Steelers defense, but the good news is that they're starting to make some of the big plays that they weren't making to start the year. Through the first five games of the season, the Steelers had forced just 4 turnovers. The past two weeks, Pittsburgh's defense has 6 takeaways. The two turnovers Dick LeBeau's defense created today were not just run of the mill takeaways either - both were returned for touchdowns. And both came in the 4th quarter with the Vikings on the march. LaMarr Woodley got things started by taking a Brett Favre fumble 77 yards for a score. Keyaron Fox then intercepted a muffed catch by Chester Taylor and took it the other way for a game-clinching 82 yard score. Credit to the D for stepping up and making a play when their backs were against the wall, but color me still concerned about how much this defense continues to bend in the passing game. It didn't break today but it most likely will unless they can make things much, much tougher for those opposing quarterbacks who are disciplined, experienced and accurate enough to dink and dunk their way down the field.

* This defense is going to continue to need big plays like that if they hope to repeat as AFC North champions. The defense is still struggling against the pass otherwise. Brett Favre threw for 334 yards and the Vikings converted a very healthy 9-of-18 on 3rd down. Minnesota had three drives of 13 plays or more which helped them win the time of possession battle by almost 14 minutes.

* Wacky stat of the game #1 - Total plays: Minnesota 78, Pittsburgh 49.

* Wacky stat of the game #2 - Minnesota 1-5 TD efficiency in the red zone; Pittsburgh 0-3.

* Wacky stat of the game #3 - Minnesota 16 first downs through the air; Pittsburgh 14 total first downs.

* William Gay had 8 tackles on Sunday, increasing his season total to 30. Only James Farrior, Ryan Clark and James Harrison have more tackles. In case you were wondering, I don't necessarily think this is a good thing. I tip my hat to Gay for playing hard and for making some nice plays in each of the Steelers first seven games, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's the weak link not only in the team's secondary, but the entire defense as well. Teams are going right at Gay most weeks, hence the high tackle totals. And they're definitely making him pay when he gives his man too big a cushion. I don't have the exact total on me, but there were at least four or five plays where Favre quickly slung the ball out to the wide receiver that Gay was defending. Again, I'm not disgusted with the way he's playing or anything. It's just he's not nearly as physical as the player he is replacing, Bryant McFadden. I said I was worried about his play before the start of the season more than anything else with this team. That sentiment has not changed for me one bit.

* I still miss Anthony Madison on special teams. The Steelers surrendered yet another kickoff return on Sunday. There were plenty of people responsible for Percy Harvin breaking off the 88 yard kickoff return, but perhaps none more than Jeff Reed. Reed not only didn't force Harvin back to the middle of the field - which is definitely rule #1 - but he also just gave his best matador impersonation by meekly flailing at Harvin as he ran by him. Bad, bad stuff from Reed.

* To his credit, Reed had a nice day kicking the ball. Both of his field goal attempts were relative 'chip shots' (39 and 27 yards), but his kicks looked crisper and an improvement over how he had been kicking the ball earlier in the year, even on his made attempts.

* A tough day for the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh mustered just 259 total yards, by far their lowest output of the season. However, the Steelers did average 5.3 yards per play, not a shabby number. The problem was settling for two field goals in the red zone and a Rashard Mendenhall fumble inside the 5 yard line. That's a lot of points left on the board. Credit the Vikings defense though - they took Hines Ward out of the game for the most part, bottled up the run for much of the afternoon, and did a superior job of not letting Big Ben break free from would-be sacks.

* Anybody else notice how many deflections the Vikings had at the line of scrimmage? I'm not sure of the number but it seemed like there were at least three or four balls batted down by Vikings defensive linemen. That rarely happens with the 6'5" Ben Roethlisberger. A job well done by them.

* I'd like to break down the play with pictures in the near future since we have a couple of weeks before the next game, but Big Ben's touchdown strike to Mike Wallace at the end of the 1st half was gorgeous. The pass was thrown with plenty of zip, but it also had just the right trajectory to fall over the Vikings first line of defense in the secondary and down in to Wallace's breadbasket before the last line of defense could get to #17. A truly perfect throw by Big Ben.

* Not to sound overly negative, but I haven't been that impressed by Daniel Sepulveda. He's been fine and a decided upgrade over what the team was getting from the punting game last year in his absence. But he's no Mike Scifres or Shane Lechler. I've still yet to see him really boom or place a punt that made me say 'wow'.

* Bet you didn't know that it was the first time in NFL history that there were 3 touchdown returns of at least 75 yards during the 4th quarter of a game. It was awesome watching the Steelers defense block for both Woodley and Fox on their respective runbacks. Percy Harvin on the other hand didn't need much help on his touchdown.

* I have been extremely impressed by the way Santonio Holmes has been playing during the Steelers four game winning streak. Santonio only had 2 receptions for 59 yards, but he continues to impress me in the running game and blocking down field for his fellow WRs after the catch. Hines has clearly rubbed off on him, and I'd imagine that both he and Hines are having the same effect on rookie Mike Wallace. It was unfortunate that Holmes didn't get his TD reception in the 1st quarter when Heath Miller was called for pass interference.

* Speaking of Mike Wallace - the rookie out of Ole Miss continues to earn the confidence and trust of his teammates and coaches. Wallace had 3 catches for 79 yards and a TD. Kevin Colbert and his army of scouts definitely found a keeper in #17. He's going to be a treat to watch over the years.

* My phrase for Mewelde Moore after we signed during the 2008 free agency period - 'one mans trash is another man's treasure'. Who would you rather have if you were Minnesota? A 30 year old Chester Taylor taking up nearly $4 million in cap room or a 27 year old Mewelde Moore who takes up less less than half the cap space that Taylor does. Moore is reliable and even keeled with his performance. Taylor is more up and down. It wasn't the easiest catch in the world, but on the play where Keyaron Fox returned the interception for a touchdown, the ball hit Taylor's hands. He's got to make that play. Anyway, I'm just glad we have Moore on our side.

* Congratulations to David Johnson. The 7th round tight end out of Arkansas State caught his first career pass late in the 1st quarter. Good stuff David!

* I'll wrap this up for now, but a job well done by the Steelers defense against Adrian Peterson. AP had just 69 yards on 18 carries and was largely unable to do much against the stout Steelers rush defense. Peterson still had some nice runs and of course that beastly play in the passing game against William Gay, but you have to be impressed with the Steelers ability to contain him without Aaron Smith for the entire game and Lawrence Timmons for part of it. Kudos to guys like Nick Eason, Travis Kirschke, Ziggy Hood and Keyaron Fox for filling in admirably.

* Now it's Pittsburgh's turn for their BYE Week before heading to Denver to take on the Denver Broncos. I think it's a great time for the BYE. The team has lots to feel good about but plenty to work on. A little rest to heal up some aching bodies and then it's time for the second half of the season and hopefully another run at securing an AFC North crown and potentially even a 1st round BYE in this year's playoffs.

Pittsburgh Still Finding Their Way Defensively - Anatomy Of An Overmatched Secondary

Blitzburgh — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:47:53 -0000

Okay, one more breakdown of a poor defensive play by the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. This time the culprit was journeyman cornerback Keiwan Ratliff, the former Colts defensive back that was acquired this past summer during free agency. Let's take a look at just how badly he got beaten during the 4th quarter of Pittsburgh's 28-20 victory over the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Pretty straight forward stuff here. Ratliff is responsible for Dennis Northcut in the slot.

More after the jump.

There's not much to show really other than that he's not even close to being in position to make a play on the ball. It helped Detroit that their pass protection held up nicely and Culpepper was able to look over the middle of the field without feeling too much heat.

But again, here's an example of how the Steelers defense is really getting exposed over the middle of the football field. That's usually Polamalu's territory of course, so perhaps he'd have been more involved in the play than Ryan Clark was. The bottom line though is that this kind of play is far more troubling than the last play I broke down. Why? Because this was simply a matter of a guy getting eaten up individually rather than the defense getting beaten to the punch by a perfectly designed and executed play.

I can't necessarily confirm this without watching much more film than I have time for, but I am beginning to wonder if the Steelers aren't shading Ryan Clark too heavily in the direction of where William Gay's man is. I've noticed multiple occasions where this is the case. If Deshea Townsend - who by the way is not doing anything this year - is being shaded more towards Ike Taylor's man, this could be problematic. The best defenses are those that are confident in leaving their cornerbacks out on an island with opposing receivers. I haven't seen that as much recently, and consequently, I feel like the middle of the field is being left too open. NFL offenses feast on big plays over the middle, and without Polamalu in there to help our dime and nickel packages, we're seeing uncharacteristically big chunks of yardage take place in that part of the football field.

To conclude, this is why I was concerned about the departure of Bryant McFadden. William Gay proved he was great in zone coverage last year and a good ball-hawk when allowed to roam free in zone looks. As a 1-on-1 corner, he understandably has work to do. He's getting better though each week, which is encouraging. Finally, I heard many fans argue that Deshea Townsend was basically as good as McFadden and that him and Gay combined would more than offset the loss of B-Mac. Well, Townsend's playing terrible football. Has anybody seen him this year? I haven't, and consequently, we're seeing this secondary struggle collectively.