SB Nation - Matt Spaeth

Cincinnati Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers with unsung heroes and a beautiful red zone defense

Kirkendall — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:00:51 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

about 1 month ago: Cincinnati Bengals' Bobbie Williams (63) leaves Heinz Field after a 18-12 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

View full size photo »

It was a bar in Dayton that an odd fellow, let's call him William, struck up a conversation with me that began with typical fantasy football musings. He drafted Adrian Peterson. His reaction was like anyone else's when drafting a great fantasy football player -- telling EVERYONE. Confident of his chances, not requiring the debate of the rest of his fantasy football draft, the conversation took an expected turn. Everyone that knows me personally, knows that I could chit-chat Bengals all day long. But it's not just about Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco. Those are the superstars that everyone else knows. What's more to say about them? Carson just wins. Chad just finds dollar bills laying around, hoping that the ref can find the owner who lost the money. We'll talk how hard Abdul Hodge will smack you in the face on kickoffs. We'll reminisce how the monstrous Ahmad Brooks had every tool to become a super-stud linebacker. We'll agree that Rashad Jeanty is perhaps the most unknown contributor on this defense, since 2006.

It was never about who was right. That's never the way conversations go. It's just about talking about the thing that we both love. William was old enough to remember both Super Bowls as if watching it live. I was too young for Super Bowl XVI. Not Super Bowl XXIII. I've told the story of breaking my mother's lamp when John Taylor scored the winning touchdown more times than I can remember.

But William's mind was sore. Last season left a bitter taste in everyone's mouth. That angry feeling we had before Marvin Lewis' era had resurfaced. Our last conversations didn't detail the exponential growth we saw from the defense last year. It wasn't about Carson Palmer returning. It wasn't about Cedric Benson, who had the best three-game stretch of any running back in the final three games. It wasn't about the veteran free agents, nor the NFL draft in which many observers praised the Bengals selections.

He was mad. And he should be mad. This team was terrible in 2008. Few things could be said about them that actually made us feel good. And that anger carried over to 2009.

William suggested firing Marvin Lewis. I gave the people's eyebrow for good measure, showing my uncertainty while questioning the validity of the source. How could you? Why would you? Who would you replace him with? It really took me aback. His argument is that great coaches could deal with the amount of injuries this team suffered, and still go undefeated... if they were great. Alright. Who would you replace him with? Bill Cowher, he instantly says. Yep. Bill Cowher. He's proven to put great teams together with a core philosophy that lasted most of his tenure, he argues. Yea, but. Well, he's a former Steelers coach. He lowers his head. He knows the point I just made. He knows that level of crazy-talk, while fun at times, has no place here. Are you drinking again, William, I asked. No, he laughed. It wasn't Bill Cowher he was suggesting; but Cowher being a model of stability that this team needed. Understandable.

At this point, I've recovered enough to make sure my adult beverage had a one-way ticket in, assuring that the mist that exhaled from my nose during that conversation had no escape. My composure, solid. I told him, have patience. They did a lot during the offseason, and excuse or not, Palmer's injury last year was a big contributor for their struggles. Even so, they were a solid football team in the second half of the season. They sported a winning recorded in the final eight games in 2008, I argued. That momentum would continue. How can you be so sure, he asked. Well, I can't be. But there are positive things. There is momentum. We won't repeat 2008. I promise.

William thoroughly enjoyed Cincy Jungle. We talked about the Bengals a lot. But we also talked just about football. The Buckeyes. The Bearcats. High School. We even shared our own football war stories.

About two months ago, William died of cancer. I'm going to miss talking to him about football. About the Bengals. But what really makes me sad, is that we won't be able to tell him that the Cincinnati Bengals swept the Steelers and Ravens, have a two-game lead in the AFC North with a 7-2 record. It would have been sweet to watch the pessimistic Bengals fan morph back into an bouncing anxious Bengals fan honestly optimistic that they could win any game on the schedule.

Hey William. We just swept the Steelers. You'd be proud.

The award for Offensive and Special Teams player of the game specifically designed to award Bernard Scott. We wrote briefly about Bernard Scott's ventures yesterday. He not only returned a kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown, but several runs late in the game moved the ball forward and helped Cincinnati kill 4:20 off the clock, setting up Shayne Graham's third field goal of the game. Scott also recorded a 21-yard reception.

Think that's it? Scott recorded 206 yards on kickoff returns, giving him 260 yards total on offense and special teams. Bernard Scott isn't the powerful between the tackles runner that Benson is right now, but Scott's speed and acceleration is impressive. With 3:05 left in the game at the Pittsburgh 35-yard line, Cincinnati lined up on second-and-five, Scott accelerated around the right edge, picked up five yards and the first down. This forced the Steelers to use two timeouts, and took another minute off the clock.

Carson Palmer didn't struggle. He did what the Steelers allowed. It was true. Most of Palmer's passes were off target, mostly high. There were some plays that Palmer felt rushed and threw the football early. In the second quarter alone, Palmer completed only two of seven passes for 30 yards. But Palmer's struggles didn't last. In the second half, Palmer's efficiency returned. He completed 10 of 13 passes for 98 yards passing. In the fourth quarter alone, Palmer completed six of seven passes for 54 yards -- including a big third-down 17-yard pass to Brian Leonard. This guy puts it together when it matters the most.

More importantly, Palmer didn't take more than what the Steelers gave him. He didn't commit a turnover. He threw passes that weren't risky. If he was getting sacked, he allowed it, not trying to do the impossible and threw the football up. No, he didn't win this football game. That's not how we beat the Steelers and I doubt that will be true next year, or the year after that. Nor did he lose the game. To me, Palmer didn't struggle. He did only what he could.

Including the big 17-yard pass to Brian Leonard that converted a third-and-five, Palmer completed a deep 16-yard pass to Laveranues Coles down the left sidelines that pushed the Bengals to Pittsburgh's 24-yard line. Palmer completed back-to-back passes for eight yards after a Brian Leonard one-yard run, setting up an easy 32-yard field goal for Shayne Graham to give Cincinnati a 15-12 lead with 7:29 left in the game. Cincinnati largely went into kill-the-clock mode with six minutes left in the game. Scott shined here. Palmer attempted only one pass -- an eight-yard pass to Laveranues Coles with 3:53 left in the game that gave the Bengals their third first down. Thanks to Bernard Scott and a scramble by Palmer where he totally forgot how to slide gracefully, Shayne Graham converted a 43-yard field goal to give the Bengals an 18-12 lead.

No. This wasn't the Palmer we saw against the Bears. Or early against the Ravens. But this isn't the same Bengals either. If Palmer only throws for 178 yards passing, doesn't record a touchdown and the Bengals win, you'll take that.

The Bengals won because they have a defense that wins games. With all of the talk about an inconsistent offense with star-power players, the truth of the matter is the Bengals defense is the biggest reason the Bengals have swept the Steelers and Ravens, own the tie-breaker against both teams and sit in first place at 7-2. It's the defense. Sure the offense has helped. But nothing with the consistency and confidence this defense has right now.

With 1:49 left in the game, the Bengals have an 18-12 lead. Pittsburgh has one timeout left and plenty of time to pick up 67 yards for the game-winning touchdown. Ever since we lost to the Denver Broncos, that little place in the back of my mind that anything could happen, gets really big. Most defenses in this situation tend to go into prevent, with one goal in mind of not allowing the game-winning touchdown. Not Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. He blitzed. He had his guys in coverage smothering route runners. Roethlisberger didn't have time for deep routes to develop, though he tried to wait. Brandon Johnson pressured Roethlisberger on first down, forcing the incomplete. Chris Crocker and Johnathan Joseph shutdown their guys on respective plays. On fourth down, Roethlisberger was assaulted by Frostee Rucker and Michael Johnson, who forced the quarterback to make a desperate throw that landed several yards away in the middle of nowhere.

Bengals football. Three knees. Bengals win!

Even though this sealed the win, I don't believe this is where the Bengals won the football game. Aside from the final score, here's the most important stat of the game. Four times the Steelers entered the red zone. Four times, the Steelers settled for field goals.

Pittsburgh looked to score a touchdown on their opening possession. They recorded three first downs, including a third-and-13 conversion on a 15-yard scramble by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals this year have struggled defensively when the game starts. And trust me, struggle is a relative term. They're simply not forcing three-and-outs on the opening possession of the game. A little greedy? So. On the first drive, the Steelers recorded three plays of 11 yards or more, reaching Cincinnati's 15-yard line. After that, the bend-but-dont-break defense, stood their ground.

On first down, Johnathan Joseph broke from his cornerback spot to close a rushing lane on the right edge, preventing what could have been a touchdown run for Mendenhall. Instead, two-yard gain. On second-and-eight at the Bengals 13-yard line, Roethlisberger spread out the offense in shotgun, he rolled out left and threw a shovel passed to Heath Miller for another three-yard gain. Third-and-five with 4:50 left in the first quarter, Chinedum Ndukwe sprinted to the line of scrimmage as Roethlisberger received the snap. Ndukwe found a wide open lane on the right, threw his arms up and knocked down the pass. Steelers drive stalls and Pittsburgh takes a 3-0 lead on a Jeff Reed 28-yard field goal.

Pittsburgh would go on to punt on the following two possessions -- including a three-and-out. With eight minutes left in the first half, the Steelers began their second red zone assault. After a 10-yard run by Mendenhall, Roethlisberger throws two incomplete passes. On third-and-10 at the Bengals 36-yard line, Roethlisberger, under pressure rolls left and finds a crossing Santonio Holmes for a 21-yard gain. He follows that up with another 10-yard gain. Three of the Steelers first five plays on this drive picked up 10 yards or more. They were picking up chunks again.

But not for long. With their backs to the endzone, the defense foams at the mouth. First-and-ten at the Bengals five-yard line. Mendenhall gets the carry, shifts to the right, where Chris Crocker shot through the line of scrimmage, taking out Mendenhall for a three-yard loss. On second-and-eight, Morgan Trent ran step-for-step with Santonio Holmes on an out-route towards the back left pylon, easily knocking the pass down. After a timeout that must have conjured up some crazy magical touchdown play, Jonathan Fanene sacks Roethlisberger, forcing Jeff Reed to convert a 33-yard field goal. That's two red zones appearances by Pittsburgh. That's two forced field goals.

Cincinnati's offense went three-and-out.

Pittsburgh gets the ball back with 2:52 left in the first half. The Steelers move until Heath Miller was called for offensive holding. After an incomplete pass to Mike Wallace, the Steelers line up second-and-twenty at the Steelers 24-yard line. Roethlisberger watches Wallace run a deep seam route and lightly presses the "B" button, floating a rainbow pass. A millisecond before the pass arrives, Ndukwe hooked Wallace's left arm, forcing another incomplete. Flag. Defensive pass interference and a 46-yard penalty. Ndukwe knew it. He didn't bother complaining.

After an 11-yard pass to Moore, the Steelers enter the red zone. The Bengals defense foams at the mouth. With :59 seconds remaining, the Steelers line up first-and-goal at the Bengals eight-yard line. After Geathers recorded the team's fourth sack in the half, Roethlisberger was forced to pick up 17 yards for the touchdown. On the first pass, Roethlisberger overthrew everyone in the end zone. On the second pass to Santonio Holmes at the back right pylon, Johnathan Joseph grazed the floating football with a fingernail, causing football enough redirection that Holmes couldn't adjust. Jeff Reed converts the 35-yard field goal.

Bengals force a third field goal on Pittsburgh's third red zone appearance.

Pittsburgh would be shutout of the red zone until there was 2:51 left in the third quarter. After five plays in which the Steelers started at midfield, Pittsburgh lines up at the Bengals 13-yard line. The score is tied at 12. This is big. After Hines Ward's eight-yard reception, the Steelers run three times, including a quarterback sneak, to pick up the first down at the Bengals 11-yard line.

On the ensuing play, the Steelers are flagged for offensive holding. After that, it was the same script that had been played all day. Five-yard dump pass to Mendenhall. Incomplete pass batted down by Jonathan Fanene, who came unblocked and would have sacked the quarterback, at the line of scrimmage. On third-and-15 at the Bengals 16-yard line, Roethlisberger, overthrows the football to Mike Wallace, running towards the left sidelines in the endzone.

Bengals force a fourth field goal on Pittsburgh's fourth, and final, red zone appearance.

Say hello to Morgan Trent. The story of a great day for the team's third best cornerback. When we talked about Morgan Trent after the NFL draft, I wasn't encouraged. It wasn't so much what I've seen -- I really don't remember him playing at Michigan much. It was Wolverine fans who weren't giving us glowing reviews. Then again, what did you expect from a guy who was drafted in the sixth round, for a position that we believed was set, save for building solid depth.

To describe Trent this year would be to say that he's as solid as they come. And against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he made plays. While the Steelers were driving on their first possession of the game, Pittsburgh lined up second-and-eight at the Bengals eight-yard line, threatening to score. Morgan Trent, lined up over Santonio Holmes, sat in the wide receivers hip, following his break towards the back left pylon. Just as it seemed that Holmes created enough space for the touchdown reception, Trent accelerated just in time to knock down the its-not-a-touchdown pass. Jonathan Fanene ended Pittsburgh's threat a play later with a quarterback sack.

On the Steelers opening drive in the second half, Ben Roethlisberger targets Hines Ward on third-and-two at their own 40-yard line. Roethlisberger, in shotgun, throws over the middle. Morgan Trent, trailing Ward on a crossing pattern, flipped his hand up at the inaccurate pass and knocked the football back towards the line of scrimmage where Frostee Rucker intercepted the pass and returned it to the 14-yard line. The Bengals would tie the game soon after.

With 7:15 left in the game, Bengals leading 15-12, Pittsburgh lines up first-and-10 at their own 27-yard line. Roethlisberger throws a deep pass over the middle. Morgan Trent outran Holmes on the deep pass and "got in the way", slowing Holmes progress. On the following play, Roethlisberger throws a quick pass to Holmes on the right. After the reception, he only picks up seven yards, thanks to Trent's great open field tackle. The significance is that the Steelers had three yards to go for the first down and Roethlisberger threw an incomplete pass on third down, forcing the Steelers to punt.

If you weren't encouraged by Morgan Trent's play before Sunday's win, you should be now.

They always say it's difficult to sack Ben Roethlisberger. The situation is second-and-eight at the Cincinnati 25-yard line with 7:42 left in the first quarter. Ben Roethlisberger lines up in double-tight end formation with a single-back. He fakes the handoff to Rashard Mendenhall, who targets the gap between center and left guard. Bengals defensive end Jonathan Fanene, lining up at right defensive end, remains at the line of scrimmage playing the run. Once he figures it's a pass, he breaks outside, actually losing his balance. Tight end Matt Spaeth uses Fanene's momentum and pushes him into the ground. Fanene, roughly a yard from Roethlisberger, lunged and twisted the quarterback's left leg to record the game's first sack.

Bernard Scott had just given the Bengals a 6-3 lead on a 96-yard touchdown return on kickoff. On the ensuing drive, with 3:36 left in the first quarter, the Pittsburgh Steelers lined up second-and-seven at their own 35 yard-line. Roethlisberger motioned Mendenhall out, leaving an empty backfield. After a three-step drop, Roethlisberger pump faked right, looked left, when Dhani Jones delayed a blitz. The Bengals had covered all of the Steelers offensive linemen, allowing Jones to come unblocked, sacking Roethlisberger for a seven-yard loss. On the following play, Santonio Holmes caught a 14-yard pass for the first down. Marvin Lewis said, "bull crap." He threw the challenge. The officials determined the spot was two yards too generous, forcing the Steelers into fourth-and-two. Pittsburgh punts.

Pittsburgh lines up third-and-goal at the Cincinnati eight-yard line with 4:54 left in the first half, threatening again. The Steelers had just called a timeout and were working up some crazy play that guaranteed a touchdown -- that's what teams do during offensive timeouts I think. Roethlisberger sets up in shotgun. Fanene lined up at the right defensive tackle spot. At first, Fanene was stuffed at the line of scrimmage. The Bengals secondary forced Roethlisberger to hold onto the football. After a few seconds, Fanene found a way around the guard, sacking Roethlisberger for a seven-yard loss.

Under a minute left in the first half, the Steelers were driving to the Bengals eight-yard line. Roethlisberger lines up in shotgun and empty backfield. He looks left, pump fakes, braces for Robert Geathers, who nailed the quarterback without even being touched by any blockers. Roethlisberger threw two incomplete passes after that and the Steelers are forced to kick a field goal.

Rushing defense comes up big again. Cincinnati came into Sunday's game with the league's second ranked defense, allowing an average of 83.9 yards per game. Cincinnati limited Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker to 80 yards rushing on 18 attempts.

Rushing offense was effective in spots, but they were always persistent. Not a bad annoying either. The Bengals rushing offense was stuffed and stifled throughout much of the game. They made some plays, but as a unit, they only recorded 61 yards rushing. The thing is, they didn't stop running the football, rushing 29 times. That's commitment to the run.

Driving nowhere. The Bengals defense forced the Steelers offense into four three-and-outs. More importantly, the Bengals defense in the second half forced an interception, three punts, a turnover on downs and a field goal.

Third down domination. The Bengals defense has only allowed four conversions in the past 25 third down situations (16%).

Points allowed domination . The Bengals came into Sunday only allowed 16.9 points per game, ranked fifth in the NFL. They've not allowed a point in the third quarter for three straight games. During that same three-game stretch, Cincinnati has only allowed 12 points in the first half and 17 points in the second half.

What we know. The Bengals win over the Steelers is huge. You know that. Everyone knows that. It's a mark in the division and an introduction to the league that this team is legit. Now, the Bengals enter a stretch of potential trap games. Knowing the maturity of this team, I like our chances. Still, as William would quickly remind all of us, we've seen them fall in games they should have won too many times before. Aye.

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

Poll

Do you like the new look of MHR's front page?

Yes! Much Better

116 votes

No! Give us our colors back

162 votes

No opinion

105 votes

383 votes | Poll has closed

Injury Report: Chargers @ Steelers

John (obviousman) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:57:21 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

2 months ago: Former New England Patriot and San Diego Charger linebacker Junior Seau, left, rides the Zamboni between periods of the Boston Bruins NHL hockey game against the Washington Capitals in Boston, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Browse more photos »

San Diego Chargers

Out

Nick Hardwick, C (ankle)

Antwan Applewhite, OLB (hamstring)

Travis Johnson, DE (groin)

Questionable

Shawne Merriman, OLB (groin)

Probable

Antoine Cason, CB (groin)

Mike Scifres, P (groin)

LaDainian Tomlinson, HB (ankle)

Louis Vasquez, G (knee)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Out

David Johnson, TE (ankle)

Troy Polamalu, S (knee)

Doubtful

Willie Parker, RB (toe)

Probable

Justin Hartwig, C (ankle)

Matt Spaeth, TE (hip)

Keiwan Ratliff, CB (illness)

It's such a shame to see Travis Johnson and Antwan Applewhite not able to get on the field. These are role players that could've made a splash this season, as they were both due to get at least some time on the field, but instead are becoming an afterthought for the team.

Steelers Post-Game Review: The Offense, Part 1 of 2

Blitzburgh — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 04:19:54 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Browse more photos »

Let's put last Sunday's loss to the Bears behind us tomorrow and begin to look ahead at next week's divisional game against the Bengals, but I wanted to first write about what I saw out of the offense, starting with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. There was plenty of good and plenty of bad alike in Sunday's loss, but for the second week in a row, I felt Roethlisberger more than did enough to help lead his team to victory. He made a few mistakes - the interception in the 1st quarter, and the sack he took in the 4th quarter right before Jeff Reed's first missed field goal attempt. And Roetthlisberger uncharacteristically missed open receivers more than once. But accuracy has never been an issue really with Big Ben. Decision making has though, and once again, I thought he did an admirable job protecting the football while still making assertive, confident decisions in and out of the pocket.

There's more...

Ben Roethlisberger

Week 2 Stats: 23/35 (65.7%), 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

2009 Stats: 58/78 (71.8%), 584 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs

Analysis: I thought Ben Roethlisberger played a pretty clean game against the Bears. Obviously he had a tremendous start to the contest, leading the Steelers down the field on a 13 play, 92-yard drive that consumed just over 8 minutes of game clock. After missing Holmes on his 2nd attempt of the game, Big Ben connected on his next seven passes on the drive. Credit Bruce Arians for drawing up an excellent first series that featured completions to five different Steelers receivers (Ward, Holmes, Miller, Moore, Spaeth). Credit Arians as well for his nicely designed 4th and goal play from the 1 yard line.

Spaeth is highlighted above. David Johnson is in motion, with Tank Summers and Willie Parker in the backfield.

Big Ben fakes the handoff to FWP and rolls to his right. The Bears linebacker above has his eyes and his weight pointed in the direction of the Steelers backfield. Spaeth meanwhile has a full head of steam slipping to the back of the end zone.

By the time Chicago's defender has realized it's play-action and that he has an assignment dragging towards the back corner of the endzone, it's too late. Big Ben has seen Spaeth and aptly gets rid of it before the gap can be closed between Spaeth and the defender. 7-0 Steelers.

Big Ben picked up right where he left off when the Steelers got the ball again following a Bears punt. Ben hit his next three passing attempts, including a gorgeous 3rd and long conversion to Hines Ward over the middle for 21 yards. At that point, Ben looked better than ever and Pittsburgh was knocking on the door again at the Bears 38 yard line. It appeared as if the Steelers were going to get at least 3 points there and really turn up the heat on Jay Cutler and the Bears offense to play from behind.

Then Big Ben threw a momentum changing pick. I originally wrote that I thought Big Ben had perhaps gotten a bit greedy and gone for the homerun ball to Wallace after going through his progressions. Turns out that wasn't quite the case. Let's take a look at what happened instead.

As we see here in the opening frame right after the snap, left tackle Max Starks is lined up pretty far outside - at least in comparison to where the rest of the play in the trenches is unfolding. It's pretty hard to see from this angle, but there's a good three or four yards between Starks and the left guard. At this point, Willie Parker has to see that Starks doesn't need any help chipping his man if he takes him wide. Big Ben would have had plenty of time and room to step up in to the pocket if that happened. Instead, he has to see that open space and figure that Starks' man is going to duck inside.

Parker misses the read though and has already begun to shade to his left rather than to step up in to the hole where there's the most glaring need for an extra body in front of Ben. Roethlisberger has already made up his mind to go deep at this point but in the National Football League, things close down in a split second and he has a man in his face disrupting his throwing motion before he can do anything about it.

I might also point out though that Charles Tillman is already in full-fledged retreat mode and is kicking it into high gear knowing Wallace's speed. In other words, Wallace does not at all have Tillman in a compromised position when Big Ben decides to throw it to the endzone. Not a good decision by Roethlisberger. But perhaps even more importantly, Willie Parker has to do a better job picking up the pass rush. He's a veteran and should know these kinds of tendencies and subtleties by now, even if it all is unfolding extremely quickly in real time.

Moving on..

Roetlisberger struggled with his accuracy for the rest of the game. He completed just three of his next nine passes before hitting Matt Spaeth for a 9 yard completion early in the 3rd quarter. It's worth noting that the rain started to come down fairly heavily during the 2nd quarter. Coach Tomlin would dismiss this as relevant, but it was undeniably obvious that Roethlisberger was suddenly missing on throws he usually makes easily. He missed Santonio Holmes on a few passes -

Big Ben did however make several impressive plays with his legs during the rest of the contest. The first came on a naked bootleg along the goal line at about the 5:30 mark with the score tied at 7-7. Again, a nice play call from Arians.

A convincing ball fake by Big Ben, sucking the Bears outside linebacker in just enough to where he won't be able to catch Big Ben in time as he sprints to the goal line.

There is one defender, Danieal Manning, who still very much has a play on Big Ben. Still, I like Ben's chances in the open field with an under-sized defensive back more often than not.

And that's why Big Ben is more than just an upper echelon quarterback in this league. He's a football player. While the Bears defender goes low, afraid to take Big Ben head on, Roethlisberger leaves it all on the field and sacrifices his body. By jumping over the top, the collision he takes with the other non-pansy Bears defenders pushes him over the goal line. That's our quarterback - one of the absolute best competitors in the league.

Roethlisberger made yet another big play with his legs when he converted a huge 3rd and 5 on the Steelers final drive of the game. There was 4:11 left on the clock and Pittsburgh had it on the Bears 38 yard line.

If you ask me, it's fairly problematic that we seem to feel most comfortable with Mewelde Moore in these late-game situations, but notice here how he does a nice job with his pass protection assignment, sticking his nose right in there and giving Ben enough room/time to decide what to do with the ball.

Ben decides to take off after noticing there's no defenders near the first down marker. There is however a Bears defensive lineman in hot pursuit. Big Ben kicks it in to high gear...

But he also instinctively knows that he needs to raise his legs as Anderson dives for his feet.

Roethlisberger then gives up his body once again stretching for the first down marker. He gets it by the nose of the football and the Steelers should have been in business to close the deal.

In conclusion, no matter what concerns we might have with the 2009 version of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I think we all have to feel fairly confident and comfortable that we have Ben Roethlisberger occupying the most important slot on an NFL roster - the quarterback position. He's been very, very good through two weeks of this year. And his solid performances have come against two good, if not great, defenses. The Titans and Bears certainly can be thought of as solid rush defenses, even if they've had their struggles defending the pass.

Anyway, if Roethlisberger can play at this high level for the remainder of the season the Steelers will be just fine. He's protecting the ball better than he did last year, he's getting more time from his offensive line to survey the field, he's still got that magic late in games and he's proven that he's healthy enough to make plays with his legs when there's no better options at his disposal. In short, he's playing like a franchise quarterback. If the other facets of the team continue to improve - even just incrementally - then the Steelers should again find themselves in playoff contention and have another shot at making a playoff run like they've been able to do with Roethlisberger under center in 2005 and 2008.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2009 Roster Analysis - The Tight Ends

Blitzburgh — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:59:58 -0000

We resume our tour of the Pittsburgh Steelers roster and the positional battles that should delineate this year's training camp in Latrobe by discussing the situation at tight end. It's quite an interesting one actually, as at the present moment, it's not at all clear what the organization intends to do past this season. Let's take a closer look.

Many Steelers fans have wondered why Heath Miller has not been more prominently involved in the offense since being drafted out of the University of Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2005 Draft. Miller has certainly been featured more than his predecessors at the position in Pittsburgh, but for a guy with such good hands and solid route-running ability, it's sometimes frustrating and perplexing that he's yet to catch 50 balls in a single season. I suppose as Jim Wexell told me and the site here last summer, there's only so many balls to go around.

Here's the deal though with Miller - and really, it's quite a fascinating development that's very much worthy of keeping an eye on and discussing. As a result of the pending labor dispute in the National Football League between the owners and the Players Association, Miller's free agent status is suddenly in question. Prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, players became unrestricted free agents after accruing four years of service. Miller, who is set to hit the market after the 2009 season, will have accrued five years of service by then. However, one of the provisions of the CBAs expiration is that players must not have six years of service before becoming unrestricted free agents. Thus, if no new deal is brokered in time, Miller would be a restricted free agent in 2010.

Not aware of that? Don't sweat it. Neither was Mr. Miller.

This is one of the reasons that a new CBA will probably be worked out sooner rather than later and why it's probably unlikely that there will be a strike - or that it will ever even get close to that, for that matter. Players don't want to have to wait six years to become unrestricted free agents for obvious reasons. On the other hand, owners do not want an uncapped NFL - at least most owners not named Jerry Jones.

Anyway, as it relates to Heath Miller - I think the possibility that he would be restricted rather than unrestricted is more than enough reason for the Steelers to wait things out and not extend Miller sooner than they have to. If I had to guess, I'd say it ain't happening this offseason.

That's just speculation from me of course, but the incentives seem to be there for the organization to sit on their hands and wait for the dust to settle a bit before deciding on what to do with Heath Miller in particular. Sorry folks who are eager to see him be the next guy re-upped.

Coincidentally, Pittsburgh's #2 tight end, Matt Spaeth, is also set to be a restricted free agent at the end of this season. Fans here on BTSC have debated Spaeth's abilities as a blocking tight end; others, including Mike Tomlin himself in 2007, have questioned Spaeth's toughness. To his credit, Spaeth has done a fairly solid job as a pass-catching tight end when his number has been called. Not outstanding, but solid enough. Spaeth had consecutive games with 6 catches in relief of Miller during Weeks 10 and 11 last year.

It's hard to say with any sort of confidence what the future might hold for Spaeth here in Pittsburgh. For me, that's because Miller's situation is vastly more complicated than most might realize. If Miller were in fact extended before hitting the open market, perhaps it's possible that Spaeth too is re-signed after this coming season. Obviously teams around the league aren't going to be willing to part ways with draft picks to acquire Spaeth, so it's likely that he could be retained at a very reasonable price. It might not make sense though to even give him a tender offer if 7th round rookie TE David Johnson proves anything at all this year, even on the Practice Squad. Johnson will be competing with hybrid TE/H-Back Sean McHugh for a very specialized roster spot - one that requires more blocking in certain packages than anything else. McHugh was solid last season in limited duty from his H-Back role. I don't think it would take too much for Johnson to dethrone him however, be it in 2009 or 2010. Then again, if Spaeth or Miller aren't in the organization's plans past this year, and Johnson is instead the guy they've penciled in at the #2 TE position, then perhaps McHugh's job is in less jeopardy.

Whew. Deep breath. Who knows how it will shake out, but from where I'm sitting, the tight end situation in Pittsburgh is a classic example of how the economics and governance structure of the NFL has the potential to supersede cut-and-dry talent evaluation.

Thoughts?

-Blitz- (Michael B.)

A Thorough Analysis Of the Steelers Tendencies on 3rd and Short

Blitzburgh — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 23:34:03 -0000

I had to investigate the Pittsburgh Steelers tendencies on 3rd and short yardage situations. It seemed to me that we threw the ball ALL the time on 3rd and short, but I wasn't entirely positive. So it was a bit tedious, but I went through the play-by-plays of every game this season and charted what we did each time we faced a 3rd down with 2-4 yards to go. Why did I selected 2-4 yards? Well, I thought it was the appropriate range. Even the most passy happy teams run on 3rd and 1 first of all. And while I think an occassional run should be sprinkled in on 3rd and 5-6 type situations, I think we all generally agree that that's a passing down.

But in the 2-4 yard range, we're basically just needing to get our very modest season average of about 3.5 yards per carry to get a new fresh set of downs. I tried to summarize all the data both in the headers and in a table below so no need to make any sort of calculations for yourself. I did that, and when you see what Bruce Arians has been up to on 3rd and short this year, you may just grow some even stronger opinions about the way our offense has been managed in certain regards and at certain times this year.

WEEK 1 (1 run, 3 passes):

3-4-HOU46(9:09) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger scrambles right end pushed ob at HST 29 for 17 yards (Z.Diles).

3-3-HOU22(7:10) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to S.Holmes to HST 13 for 9 yards (J.Reeves).

3-2-PIT39(3:07) B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 27 for -12 yards (M.Williams).

3-2-PIT28(6:15) W.Parker right tackle to PIT 32 for 4 yards (CC.Brown, Z.Diles).

WEEK 2 (0 runs, 3 passes)

3-4-PIT25(12:04) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short right to S.Holmes pushed ob at PIT 41 for 16 yards (E.Wright) [M.Adams].

3-2-PIT49(10:18) B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 40 for -9 yards (sack split by C.Williams and N.Sorensen).

3-4-CLE30(8:11) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to S.Holmes (E.Wright) [S.Rogers].

WEEK 3 (0 runs, 4 passes)

3-4-PHI45(6:38) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short left to H.Ward to PHI 39 for 6 yards (L.Sheppard).

3-4-PIT39(7:49) (Shotgun)
PENALTY on PHI-M.Patterson, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 39 - No Play. (Shotgun = about to pass)

3-3-PHI49(6:00) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 45 for -6 yards (J.Parker). FUMBLES (J.Parker) [J.Parker], RECOVERED by PHI-B.Bunkley at PIT 45. B.Bunkley to PIT 45 for no gain (H.Miller).

3-2-PHI13(1:08) (Shotgun) B.Leftwich sacked at PHI 22 for -9 yards (sack split by D.Howard and D.Klecko).

WEEK 4 (0 runs, 3 passes)

3-2-BAL47(10:24) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to N.Washington to BLT 35 for 12 yards (C.Ivy).

3-4-BAL38(4:17) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to S.Holmes for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-3-PIT37(2:51) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short left to M.Moore to PIT 43 for 6 yards (B.Scott).

WEEK 5 (0 runs, 2 passes)

3-3-JAC20(12:49) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to M.Moore.

3-3-PIT43(4:40) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short left to N.Washington to JAX 45 for 12 yards (B.Williams).
PENALTY on PIT-N.Washington, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

WEEK 7 (1 run, 2 passes)

3-3-CIN3(:51) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to H.Miller.

3-2-CIN44(10:02) B.Roethlisberger pass short right to M.Moore to CIN 44 for no gain (J.Joseph). FUMBLES (J.Joseph), ball out of bounds at CIN 45.

3-3-CIN13(8:36) M.Moore left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

WEEK 8 (0 runs, 2 passes)

3-2-PIT48(8:07) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for N.Washington INTERCEPTED by B.Kehl (J.Butler) at NYG 39. B.Kehl to PIT 44 for 17 yards (G.Russell). Penalty on PIT-L.Sweed, Offensive Offside, declined.

3-2-NYG36(1:06) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger sacked at NYG 45 for -9 yards (M.Kiwanuka).

WEEK 9 (0 runs, 5 passes)

3-2-PIT40(12:58) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to M.Moore (L.Fletcher).

3-2-WAS16(8:52) B.Roethlisberger sacked at WAS 17 for -1 yards (D.Evans).

3-4-PIT40(4:46) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to H.Ward (F.Smoot, L.Fletcher).

3-4-PIT40(:24) (Shotgun) B.Leftwich pass short right to M.Moore to WAS 47 for 13 yards (C.Rogers).

(2:45) (Shotgun) B.Leftwich sacked at PIT 27 for -5 yards (sack split by D.Evans and R.McIntosh).
PENALTY on PIT, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 32 - No Play. Six men on the line

WEEK 10 (0 runs, 7 passes)

3-2-IND42(11:41) B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to S.Holmes to IND 19 for 23 yards (A.Bethea).

3-2-PIT16(1:30) B.Roethlisberger pass deep left intended for S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by K.Ratliff at PIT 32. K.Ratliff to PIT 30 for 2 yards (S.McHugh).

3-4-PIT46(6:44) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short right to M.Moore to IND 48 for 6 yards (M.Bullitt, T.Jennings).

3-2-PIT49(14:19) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to H.Ward to IND 34 for 17 yards (F.Keiaho).

3-2-IND26(12:15) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short right to N.Washington to IND 20 for 6 yards (K.Ratliff).

3-4-PIT34(4:51) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by T.Jennings at PIT 38. T.Jennings to PIT 32 for 6 yards (B.Roethlisberger).

3-3-PIT34(2:22) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to M.Spaeth to PIT 44 for 10 yards (M.Bullitt).

WEEK 11 (1 runs, 3 passes)

3-2-PIT29(12:18) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short right to M.Moore to PIT 33 for 4 yards (S.Cooper).

3-2-SD49(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to H.Ward to SD 42 for 7 yards (E.Weddle).

3-4-SD22(:11) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to S.Holmes to SD 3 for 19 yards (A.Cromartie).

3-4-SD4(:21) W.Parker left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PIT-S.McHugh, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SD 4 - No Play.

WEEK 12 (0 runs, 4 passes)

3-3-CIN19(2:00) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to S.Holmes (Da.Jones).

3-4-PIT29(12:02) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle to PIT 35 for 6 yards (R.Jeanty, D.Blackstock).

3-2-CIN20(8:30) (Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to H.Ward. COVERAGE BY #29 HALL

3-3-CIN8(2:22) B.Roethlisberger scrambles left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

**************************************

**Pittsburgh Steelers on 3rd and 2 - 3rd and 4**
Total Opportunities	Total Runs	Total Passes	1st Down % Running	1st Down % Passing	Sacks
41	3	38	100%	54%	7

Conclusions:

1) We can all agree to disagree about what's the best general offensive philosophy to deploy based on or personnel and what tends to work these days in the league, but I contend wholeheartedly that we are doing ourselves a huuuge disservice by not forcing opposing teams to keep things honest at all. We all know that these coaches have access to every last bit of data out there, so we can all agree that opposing defensive coordinators know this. There's enough data now that defenses know we're throwing. Period. That's a huge disadvantage. We may not have the ideal line or power running back to lean on too heavily in these types of situations, but 7% is not nearly enough balance in those situations.

2) It's largely irrelevant because there's not enough data points in the running game to make any worthwhile conclusions, but my guess is you too noticed that we had some good fortune on those very few instances when we ran it. Just saying!

3) And finally, 3 of Ben's 11 INTs have come in these 38 pass attempts. We have thrown the ball 334 times so you do the math. 27% of Ben's picks have come on just 11% of his passes. That's not a tell all fact necessarily, but knowing what we do about our defense, this is a very easy way for us to improve our chances of winning close games in December and January. It doesn't require us to change our identity either. We can still be a 30-35 throw / 28-32 carry type of offense and still shift things around a bit to better disguise what we are trying to do. And at worse, the evidence suggests we'd at least hold on to the ball more carefully.

Nine Bengals OUT; two frosh linemen starting... yikes

Kirkendall — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:24:25 -0000

With Antonio Chatman ending his season on Injured Reserve, and Chris Henry playing so terribly since his Mike Brown early Christmas resurrection, what's left of the Bengals passing game beyond Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh? Glenn Holt and Andre Caldwell (who just recovered from his own injury); Jerome Simpson is still hurt, and unlikely to play Thursday. On the practice squad ranks are Mario Urrutia and Maurice Purify.

Three's a company? It's a freaking party. With Levi Jones and Andrew Whitworth declared "out", the Bengals will turn to Anthony Collins at left tackle and Scott Kooistra at left guard. Kooistra is out also. Seriously? Thursday night, the Bengals will have two guys starting on the left side of the offensive line that's never started. Inexperienced be damned, says Nate Livings, expected to start at left guard. "I've been playing this game all my life. It's what I do. Ever since I was nine, 10 years old. To me, it's no different than that," said Livings before Wednesday's practice. "I think that's where people go wrong. They put too much (emphasis on inexperience). Yes, it's the NFL. But it's my job. I come to work every day and that's how I look at it."

What's the tally on injury? Chris Crocker looks to get a start after Chinedum Ndukwe was declared out, one of nine players out. Three offensive linemen, three players on their way to IR (if you include Carson Palmer), and two defensive ends, Eric Henderson and Antwan Odom. Starting cornerback Johnathan Joseph also missed practices this week and is listed as questionable.

STATUS

OUT	DOUBTFUL	QUESTIONABLE	PROBABLE
Carson Palmer	Jerome Simpson	Johnathan Joseph	Andre Caldwell
Antonio Chatman			Houshmandzadeh
Eric Henderson			Reggie Kelly
Abdul Hodge			Kenny Watson
Levi Jones
Scott Kooistra
Chinedum Ndukwe
Antwan Odom
Andrew Whitworth

TUESDAY: Not including Antonio Chatman and Carson Palmer, declared out already, the Bengals had eight players sit out practice for various elements on Tuesday; three linemen and two starting defensive backs, more notable. Levi Jones and Andrew Whitworth figure to be out, meaning Anthony Collins will make his first start alongside Scott Kooistra, if his presence on the injury report with a "knee" is only for rest.

Practices

BENGALS	TUES	WED
WR Antonio Chatman (neck)	OUT	OUT
QB Carson Palmer (right elbow)	OUT	OUT
DE Eric Henderson (neck)	DNP	OUT
T Levi Jones (back)	DNP	OUT
CB Johnathan Joseph (foot)	DNP	DNP
G Scott Kooistra (knee)	DNP	OUT
S Chinedum Ndukwe (foot)	DNP	OUT
DE Antwan Odom (shoulder)	DNP	OUT
WR Jerome Simpson (ankle)	DNP	DNP
G Andrew Whitworth (ankle	DNP	OUT
RB Kenny Watson (shoulder)	LP	FP
WR Andre Caldwell (foot)	FP	FP
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (back)	FP	FP
TE Reggie Kelly (ankle)	FP	FP


STEELERS	TUES	WED
T Marvel Smith (back)	DNP
CB Deshea Townsend (hamstring)	DNP
TE Matt Spaeth (wrist)	LP
CB Bryant McFadden (forearm)	FP

DNP - Did Not Practice
LP - Limited Participation in Practice
FP - Full Participation in Practice