SB Nation - Logan Mankins

New York Jets Run Defense vs. New England Patriots Run Offense

John B — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:43:56 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

The Pats have almost a 50-50 run-pass split offensively, but they do most of their real damage through the air. Their running game is nowhere near as dynamic. Their top back, Fred Taylor, is nursing an ankle injury. Laurence Maroney has 94 carries and 378 yards for a pedestrian 4.0 average. He and Kevin Faulk, who has a 5.1 average, are both quick enough to be effective on draws. My guess is the Pats use a lot to try and catch blitzers up field. Aside from this, I don't expect the Pats to try and pound the ball despite New York's defensive struggles against the run (18th ranked run defense). Their strength is passing the ball. They won't go away from that.

Sione Pouha will have his hands full with Dan Koeppen, Steven Neal, and Logan Mankins, all quality run blockers. The Jets don't have the luxury of giving him much help today with four man fronts they may have had against Miami and Jacksonville. The Jets need to primarily play 3-4 to disguise the blitzers. Pouha has done good work holding the point of attack. He'll need to have his best game to help slow down the New England run game. He has to occupy two blockers.

Sammy Morris will also see action for New England. He has a 3.6 average on 30 carries.

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. New England Patriots Pass Offense

John B — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:32:12 -0000

by Michael Perez - AP

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Last time the Jets shut down Tom Brady with non stop pressure. That's been their formula for success against Brady in the past, sending men from all angles, confusing his protection, and forcing him to throw early. It's the only way to beat an offense like this. If a quarterback this good has time, he'll find a window. If receivers this good have time, they'll eventually get open.

This kind of matchup favors the Pats. The Jets probably won't change much from what was successful the first time. Why would they? New England has the ability to adjust. It's funny because in the past, New England adjusted to New York's blitzing of Brady by the formula they tried in the first game, spreading the field and getting the ball out quickly. That won't work because the Jets will just send more men than blockers once again. At least one guy will run free to Brady and force an early throw. This time I think the Pats leave in extra blockers. As long as they leave Brady standing, he can find somebody.

In the first game, Darrelle Revis shut down Randy Moss with very little safety help. The Jets played a lot of cover zero and cover one. When he had help, he didn't need it. The one area the Pats found success was working the middle with Julian Edelman, a shifty slot receiver. Wes Welker will be in the lineup this time. He and Edelman will be working the middle a lot. We'll also see a lot of quick throws and screens to Welker and let him make plays. To get to Brady, the Jets are going to have to ask a lot out of Lito Sheppard, Donald Strickland, and Dwight Lowery. If the Jets are going to win, these guys in particular are going to have to cover and tackle well.

I also think the Pats will look to exploit Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker and test out Eric Smith. Eric will be playing Jim Leonhard's role now, not working underneath and as a blitzer in subpackages. We'll also see Kevin Faulk on a lot of screens out of the backfield to try and catch blitzers overpursuing.

One thing to watch on the line is the play of rookie Sebastian Vollmer, who replaced the injured Matt Light about a month ago. Vollmer has held up exceptionally well against some of the best rushers in the game like Dwight Freeney last week. Light had been the weak link on the line. The interior guys, Steven Neal, Dan Koppen, and Logan Mankins, as well as right tackle Nick Kaczur have been good in pass protection. The Jets should focus again on overload blitzes. It's going to be tough to consistently win matchups against these guys. Just overwhelm them to one side and hope the protection can't slide quickly enough.

Quick Recap: Patriots defeat Buccaneers, 35-7

MaPatsFan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:03:25 -0000

It was...as expected. The (now) 0-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were outgunned and outmatched coming into this game. Everyone knew it. Everyone expected New England to roll over them. And they did. What I found interesting in this game was the play calling and some of the substitutions. A long bomb to Brandon Tate, right after he just came off of the PUP. That's more a preseason "let's try the kid out" than a serious play. Ask yourself if they'd try that against Indy or Miami and I'd be willing to bet the answer would be an emphatic NO.

One thing for sure, Sebastian Vollmer and Logan Mankins will be running laps until their feet bleed. Vollmer had 2 holding penalties called on him but Mankins, with 3 false starts and 1 holding, has the German beat for bonehead moves of the game. That was very uncharacteristic of Mankins and something that is, I'm sure, very fixable.

There were enough negatives, which I'll get to in the longer recap tomorrow, but there were plenty of positives:

Brandon Meriweather has turned into an absolute stud in the defensive backfield and not just because of his pick 6 (it was a thing of beauty though, wasn't it?). He's Mr. Everywhere, prowling the line of scrimmage, disrupting receivers, making big hits. Cool.
Wes Welker is ridiculous. My only worry about the little engine that can is the possibility of burnout. I mean, the guy can only take so much. Get Julian Edelman back on the field.
The loss of both Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor didn't seem to impact the ground game today. Laurence Maroney is still bouncing, but he did have some decent runs in key situations. A TD to his name doesn't hurt, either.

All for now. More recap tomorrow.

The Offensive Line Part 1: Ruskell the Rookie

John Morgan — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:41:21 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Seahawks fans are eager for a fall guy after watching their guy fall, but sometimes things go bad without an easy enemy to blame.

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Normally I take this time to rewatch the game a few times and decide my storylines for the week. I have still yet to see the game. The bye week is on its way and there's plenty to discuss, but actual tape analysis might be a little slow coming.

I didn't need to see it to know that starting Kyle Williams beside Steve Vallos was going to be a problem. It was a not so subtle and not so brief reminder that football coaches can overvalue intelligence and intangibles. Vallos chemistry with Williams didn't make it off the practice field. The more important matter is how did Seattle's line get so bad? Could it be significantly better? And is there still hope for improvement?

From Caviar to Cat Food

Seattle started two future Hall of Fame talents on its Super Bowl bound 2005 team. Walter Jones was the best tackle of a historic class. The best tackle in the history of the NFL, according to some. No one currently associated with the Seahawks deserves credit for Jones success or Jones eventual decline. Three fifths of that historic 2005 line are retired or nearly so. The remaining two are paving the way to Canton for another back and injured, respectively. Knowing that so much of that talented line simply got old is cold comfort, but comfort.

Tim Ruskell bears some responsibility for the Seahawks losing Steve Hutchinson. As we know his style better, his fingerprints appear all over that botched attempt to save fifty bucks. The actual mistake was minor compared to the outcome. Ruskell was blindsided by a poison pill clause that introduced the world to the phrase "poison pill clause". He was backdoored by a wily GM and a guard that wanted out. If we can't ever fully excuse Ruskell from that mistake, I think we should at least maintain perspective.

The Seahawks line was in need of new blood as soon as Ruskell took over. The interior was comprised of two journeymen soon to retire and a free agent. The 2004 team, the team I affectionately call the Trader Bob Superfund, was bereft of promising offensive line talent. It was the principles, Chris Terry, Floyd Womack, Jerry Wunch and Wayne the Pain Hunter.

As has been Ruskell's lot, he was fixing the team at multiple positions during the offseason. He drafted Chris Spencer in the first, Ray Willis in the fourth and Doug Nienhuis in the seventh in a linemen- and linebacker-centric draft. Neinhuis was a pure bust, but Willis has developed into a cheap, talented right tackle. Seattle re-signed Willis this offseason and he's been a rock on an otherwise chalk line.

Spencer is a bit more controversial. He hasn't excelled and he hasn't been awful. He hasn't been healthy and he hasn't been wracked with injury. Spencer is only 27 and his potential is still strong, a potential that could mean eight more years of productive football, but he's a free agent or restricted free agent after this season and might not be worth his open market value.

Ruskell did invest in the offensive line. He did it at the right time and with some success. Willis was the first lineman selected in the fourth round and he has been the second most successful. I will give Jason Brown the benefit of the doubt, though I am not sure Brown is in fact more valuable than Willis. Seattle could have selected Logan Mankins or Michael Roos with its Spencer pick, but it didn't. Roos is a pure tackle and could have perhaps played right tackle for Seattle, allowing Locklear to move inside, but Seattle didn't see offensive tackle as a pressing need, or guard for that matter. Value for value, Willis has been a similar find to Roos. It's also notable that Chris Gray would play three more serviceable seasons at right guard, but Robbie Tobeck was out of the league the very next season. Ruskell added starter caliber talent at the right positions at the right time in his very first draft as a GM.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels salutes the crowd after the Broncos defeated the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Is anybody else feeling like they could get used to feeling like this on a Tuesday? It's great to be 5-0, isn't it? Maybe Mark Kiszla is right, and we should all join him in welcoming Kyle Orton to Denver, since MHR is clearly bringing up the rear, there. Y'all know how skeptical I have been. Despite our ongoing skepticism, and community-wide propensity for all things negative, we press on. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. Speaking of my skepticism, I was pretty high on this team, heading into the first game.

This is an 11-5 football team, and it's one that is only going to improve as it adds more quality talent in the next few years. I put my money where my mouth is too, donating $11 to the Susan G. Komen Race For The Cure, on John Bena's wife's behalf. Please do the same thing, if you can, by donating $1 for every win you think the Broncos will get this season. Things have to break right for that to happen, sure, but I think they will. Forget last season, this is a totally different thing.

Well, that caused a stir. John Bena took a beating on Twitter about it, and even my brother Chris thought I was about 4 games too generous. At this point, I am frankly wondering if I shorted the Susan G Komen outfit by a buck or two. One mea culpa though.

By the way, the Broncos five losses are to the Patriots, Giants, and Raiders at home, and the Chargers and Eagles on the road. I know a lot of people will groan at the thought of losing to Oakland at home, but let's face it, the Broncos annually lose a game they have no business losing, and I had a feeling that that would be the one. I think they can beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh, because they protect the QB, and will be strong defensively against the run. It's about matchups, in those cases. Really, I believe that the Broncos can beat any team on their schedule if they execute, and consistently do the things you need to do to win football games.

I had the Broncos going to 4-0, (in case anybody claims nobody did), before losing both (Sunday) to the Patriots and next Monday night to the Chargers. They beat the Patriots, and I am pretty sure they'll beat the Chargers too, to move to 6-0. I also don't think there is any way they lose to the Raiders, with the consistent preparation and focus they've shown, and Oakland's extreme awfulness. So, even the most optimistic reasonable guy you know may have been underselling this team.

I am not much of a stats guy, but are you ready for an unbelievable one? In five weeks, the Broncos have made zero personnel moves. For all you hear about how much "turmoil" surrounded this team in the offseason, there has been absolutely none in the regular season. Of course, having had no major injuries helps, but it's really indicative of the quality of the team's personnel plan. There was no area where the staff thought incorrectly that the personnel would be good enough. It's good enough everywhere.

There is a lot of reason to really like this team. When the score was 10-0 in the first quarter, my father (Ed) called me, like he does when things aren't going that well for the Broncos. This is the conversation, practically word-for-word.

Ed: What's going on with your boys?

Ted: (A little annoyed.) Nothing, they had a good drive, but missed a field goal, and then they fumbled. Then they held the Patriots to a field goal despite really favorable field position. I'm not worried about it yet. These things happen.

Ed: I don't know...

Ted: This team has shown an ability to be resilient, and make adjustments. I think they'll hang in there, and be okay. (More annoyed, because the commercial was ending, and the game was restarting.) They just (bleeped) up a couple times, it's not the end of the world.

Ed: We'll see....

Ted: Yes, we will. I have to go, so I can pay attention.

Ed: Okay, when you write your analysis, you should mention that your expert father thinks they played like (bleep) because of those ugly uniforms.

Like me, my father is a former United States sailor (a Chief Nuke Machinist Mate), and we tend to employ some sailors' vocabulary when we speak. (In the interest of authenticity, I thought everybody should know that.)

I think back to the last few years, and there is a striking difference with this team. I think of 2005, and the Broncos hardly ever trailed in that season. Jake Plummer was made to play low-risk football, the defense was solid, and the Broncos ran the ball very well. If the plan was executed, the Broncos were going to win. Once it wasn't, in the AFC Championship Game, there was no coming back.

Between 2006-2008, the team was very mistake-prone, on both offense and defense (after the first 6 games of 2006). Generally, you'd have the feeling that if a player or unit made a mistake, that a long day of repeat mistakes would be sure to follow. Think of all the times Jay Cutler played the team out of games, or the defense took a holiday from tackling (or both happened in the same game, like the early season Chiefs game last season). There was always a puncher's chance, but you felt like every mistake was the killer.

I have a tremendous amount of faith in this team's ability to overcome mistakes. In the short amount of time they've been together, I've seen them do it a lot of times. It's not like they're making a lot of mistakes, but they show the ability to settle down and re-focus, no matter what happens. The 2008 Broncos would have gotten blown out today, no question about it. This team hangs in there, gets back to playing solid football, and gets in position to win in the end. It happened against Cincinnati, it happened against Dallas, and it happened again today. (Of course, there never was one second where the Browns or Raiders had an apparent chance, so there was no particular need to hang in there in those games.)

Check out this tweet from Darrell Reid, from Sunday night:

@Footz95: Bronco Fans Please 4Give Me 4 My Penalty That Almost Cost Us The Game. Luckily Its A Team Sport And My Teammates Overcame That Play. Thank U

That's pure class and accountability, and it's emblematic of this team. There was nothing about how the penalty was kind of ticky-tack, even if it was. He knows the rules, he ran into the guy's leg, and he is accountable for his mistake.

It's a gift to be able to feel like this, and I think only probably Patriots, Steelers, and Colts fans have been able to do so consistently, in recent memory. I think Giants and Saints fans probably can right now. Somehow, our team is going to keep focused, and find a way to be in the game until the final gun. What a great new Broncos fan reality.

2. Information From My Eyes, Patriots at Broncos:

a. The WRs for the Broncos did great work all game on Sunday. They ran a ton of hitches, and really got out of their breaks well on them. They also really caught the ball.

b. Andra Davis and D.J. Williams both missed clean sacks on Tom Brady, on delayed blitzes. It sure would have been nice to have those sacks, at the time.

c. I thought the use of Russ Hochstein as a FB was a nice touch a few times. It's been hit or miss this season, and it hit Sunday.

d. Both Brandon Marshall TDs were emblematic of his improvement as an all-around player. He made plays with his physicality, which he hadn't ever fully harnessed in past years. There was no sideways running Sunday, just good routes and power.

e. That Ben Watson TD was evidently a mistake by D.J. Williams, who from the looks of the rest of the scheme, and Wesley Woodyard's reaction, should have stayed in zone coverage, instead of following the underneath crosser.

f. Maybe Kyle Orton was so fantastic because he read Mark Kiszla's column before the game. Feeling like "one of us" has to go a long way, right?

g. That was a joke, of course, but Orton really did look as good as I have ever seen him. His feet were calm, active, and precise, his decisions were quick and correct, and his throws were consistently on the money. He looked like Tom Brady looks on a good day, and that's no overstatement.

h. I want to see a QB sneak on a short-yardage play one of these days. I am tired of seeing these handoff plays get blown up by quick penetration, usually over Ben Hamilton.

i. WOW, did Josh McDaniels ever flame-spray Mike Priefer and Keith Burns over that Darrell Reid penalty. He had a point. There was no particular need to be halfway rushing that punt, in that situation. Honestly, I am a believer in not trying to block a punt at all, unless there's 6 or more yards to go. That mitigates the risk of running into the kicker.

j. If you remember the second-down play in the 4th quarter, with about 10 minutes to go, where Brady threw deep and the ball was broken up by Brian Dawkins, the real play was made by D.J.Williams, in covering Wes Welker one-on-one. Brady clearly wanted to go there, and it was blanketed. On the next play, Brady did throw to Welker, and Champ Bailey had great coverage. The Broncos did a great job taking Welker away in the second half.

k. Everybody knows I wasn't that high on the Knowshon Moreno pick when it was made, but I have come to really love this player. He is going to be a superstar for years to come. I especially appreciate his skill at picking up the blitz, which is rare for a rookie.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games:

a. I had the Bengals-Ravens game on my fixed screen Sunday, for the duration. The key observation from that game is that I had it slightly wrong a couple weeks ago, when I said that the Ravens were without any glaring weaknesses. Their cornerbacks are below average, and they can be killed outside the numbers. Old friend Domonique Foxworth is a good guy, but an average-at-best player. Fabian Washington isn't even as good as that. Particularly if you can block the Ravens' pressure packages, there is a lot of opportunity for success.

b. It is, however, best to stay out of the middle of the field, with any kind of risky throws. Ed Reed is as great as ever, and we all know about Ray Lewis. Reed made a couple big plays Sunday, stripping Chad Ochocinco on a long gainer before the first half ended, and then also returning an interception for a TD later. The Bengals dominated this game, and Reed and Ray Rice were the Ravens' only real positives, and managed to keep the Ravens in it.

c. Matt Cassel says he wants to find the right "anecdote" to losing. The Chiefs ought to start by drafting a lot more speed, because they're the slowest team in the NFL, ahead of their opponent Sunday, Dallas. The Chiefs are going to have another very high draft pick this year, because they are really horrible. If I were Scott Pioli, I would do everything possible to get below the Top 10, because a third straight very high pick, along with Cassel's contract, is going to really mess up their salary structure, a la Oakland. I would give a top pick away, straight-up, for the 12th pick, in their situation. Bill Polian had it right when he said that you don't get good by picking high in the draft every year. Unless you're taking a can't-miss QB, like Peyton Manning, nobody is worth the money you have to pay out.

d. Speaking of the Chiefs, this has gone mostly under the radar, but they're not playing Derrick Johnson, their best linebacker. He was their best defensive player in 2008, and now he's frozen out for some undisclosed reason. If I were a 40-front team, I'd be calling the Chiefs before the trade deadline next week. I bet he could be had for a 5th-rounder.

e. Have you ever seen that show, Intervention, on A&E? I know I have a pretty male-heavy readership, and it's mostly targeted toward a female demographic, so I ask, rather than assume. Anyway, it's not what I would call uplifting television. There's always some really troubled person, with drugs, or gambling, or compulsive shopping, or whatever. Their family loves them, and wants to help get them on the straight and narrow, but addiction is really hard (my 3-year anniversary of quitting smoking is next Monday, so trust me, I have an idea about addiction).

Anyway, the Jaguars remind me of an addict who is trying to get clean, and tries hard, and does well for a while, and then has a staggering, messy relapse. Jacksonville's addiction is to playing undisciplined and stupid football. The last two weeks, against Houston and Tennessee, the Jags had their act together. Sunday, against Seattle, they relapsed, and got completely embarassed. Rashean Mathis, a good CB, had a horrid game, and got out of position repeatedly. I think Jack Del Rio's days have to be numbered, because his program just isn't getting the team to where they need to be. I'm not picking them in any more games this year, either, unless it's against an obviously terrible team. Sometimes, even though you may love the addict, they won't let themselves be helped, and you have to cut them off.

f. The 49ers are not addicted to undisciplined football, but they sure played like the Jaguars West on Sunday. Watching the Short Cut, I really feel like they lost their composure after Roddy White's 90-yard TD in the second quarter. Nate Clements got beat on that play, and had a tough game overall. The defense was physical, and maintained their run lanes, but didn't tackle well, at all. I expect that Mike Singletary will re-focus his team, and they'll show better in their next game, after their bye. Since they're clearly not built to play from behind, they need to establish early leads.

g. A lot was made of Dre' Bly's idiotic celebration Sunday, but Donnie Avery deserves some scorn too, for dancing after a TD catch, when it made the score 31-10 Vikings, with 6 minutes to go. That's just clown-like. Hand the ball to the Field Judge, and get back to your sideline.

h. Matt Schaub threw a noodle-armed out route Sunday, which Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie took back for the game-winning TD. Even after that, Schaub drove the team the length of the field, before the Cardinals held them on 4th and goal from the 1. The problem with being a zone-blocking team, as we've seen, is that you tend to struggle in short yardage situations, and the Texans really struggle with them.

i. I got called "ignorant" once by our dear friend/Colts blogger BigBlueShoe for saying that Anthony Gonzalez was a below-average starter. I considered it an honor, because I am happy to disagree with anybody. (Evaluation is a function of what I see, not what anybody thinks they know, and by extension, that they think I should "know.") In any case, Gonzalez, who is from 3 towns west of where I live, is going to stuggle to get on the field when he gets healthy. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have done fantastic work this season, and they're both better players than Gonzalez. Collie is smooth in his routes, and fundamentally sound, and Garcon is fast and fluid. Gonzalez struggles to get off press coverage, and as Mike Shanahan once said, if you can't get off press coverage, you'll be selling cars before too long.

j. The Steelers defense looks extremely beatable lately, especially if you can pass protect. The Lions did a lot of good stuff offensively Sunday, and lost only because they couldn't contain James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Trust me, they're not a terrible team team this season.

k. Josh Johnson looked like an NFL starting QB on Sunday, which is an accomplishment, for your second career start, against a defense like Philadelphia's. His stats were pedestrian (26-50, 240 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT with 5 carries for 40 yards), but he passed the eye test. His throws were mostly accurate and decisive, and he was victimized by quite a few drops, at least 6 or 7.

l. I haven't gotten a great look at Jason Peters yet this regular season, and I have been wanting to. Sunday's game didn't show me much, because Gaines Adams just looks clueless on the field. LDE Jimmy Wilkerson got 3 sacks for the Buccaneers, and lazy analysis would lead me to criticize RT Winston Justice, who I am typically not a big fan of. Thing is, I looked at the plays, and none were particularly bad plays by Justice. One was an overload, where the RG picked up Wilkerson, and on the other two, Donovan McNabb rolled into a decently-blocked Wilkerson.

m. ST&NO favorite Channing Crowder had a fantastic game on Monday Night, and really backed up his smack talk from the spring with Rex Ryan. Another ST&NO favorite, Sean Smith, did not have a particularly great game. He struggled a little with Braylon Edwards, and while he didn't embarass himself, he has looked a lot better in other games. He was still the best CB the Dolphins had, as Vontae Davis and Will Allen both struggled worse.

n. I called this just last Tuesday with Edwards. He got out of Cleveland, and he's going to flourish in New York. He always thought of Cleveland as a non-cosmopolitan place, even to a greater extent than what is really true. (It's medium in its cosmopolitan-ness; well behind the major cities, but well ahead of a place like Jacksonville.) Edwards also felt like Ohio fans secretly hated him because he is a Michigan guy. The enmity between OSU and Michigan people is pretty real, for Big 10 country anyway, but Clevelanders are almost universally Browns fans before they're OSU fans. It's an NFL town, first, no question about it. If Edwards did well for the Browns, he'd have gotten plenty of love here.

My read on Edwards' personality, from living in the same town, is that the fact that he comes from a fairly affluent, two-parent, suburban background works against his ability to be a great player. He knows he has options outside of football. Poor kids need football, and many dedicate themselves fully to it, but I don't think Edwards has ever felt like he needs it. (For an example, there's the famous story of him asking Will Demps how to get into modeling and acting, between plays, during a game with the Texans).

I expect that Edwards will be very good for the Jets, and get himself a good contract extension after this season. New York is the town he wants to be in, and at his best, he can be like Tiki Barber, a guy who is interested in a lot of other stuff, but finally focuses pretty well on football, and has some good years under some tough coaching. Just don't be the person who believes the nonsense about him being a bad player, because he is not one.

n. The Dolphins offensive line is really one-dimensional, because their Tackles, Jake Long and Vernon Carey, severely lack foot quickness. Both guys can really move defenders off the ball in the running game, though. I am a big fan of Justin Smiley at LG; he's a mauler. The Dolphins do well in their wildcat stuff, but I think they should play more with their QB under center, to generate opportunities in the play-action game. It's the only way their QB will ever be able to consistently take a very deep dropback, unless they want to max-protect with a limited pattern.

o. Wow.... two successful fake punts in one first half by the Jets. I don't know if I have ever seen that before. Brad Smith was almost stopped on the second one, but he managed to get away from the tackle.

p. Chad Henne has looked much better than I thought he could play the last two weeks, but I am not sold on some things. For one thing, since when do QBs have lousy, jail-house looking tattoos, or any tattoos at all? It's like when an enlisted guy in the military becomes an officer, and suddenly looks a little different, sporting a bunch of ink. (My buddy who is getting married in Dallas in about 2 weeks is actually one of these.) Anyway, it's weird to see a QB with that going on. As a player, he looked really good, though.

q. Ted Ginn put a pretty humbling move on Darrelle Revis in the 4th quarter Monday Night. When you hear scouts talk about suddenness, Ginn is not a guy who really has it, as opposed to somebody like Percy Harvin, who does. Ginn does, however, have world-class speed once he gets going, and he ran by the outstanding Revis for a go-ahead TD.

r. I usually ignore MNF while I write the bulk of ST&NO on Monday nights, but this Dolphins-Jets game was terrific. Both of these teams are playoff-caliber teams, and only one of them will probably make it.

s. The Packers had a bye week, and signed Mark Tauscher, which was smart. I think he is below-average, (and so is Chad Clifton), but they are a damnsight better than Daryn Colledge and Allen Barbre. If Aaron Rodgers can get sacked only 3-4 times per game, as opposed to 8-9, the Packers would have a better chance to beat good teams. Rodgers does tend to hold the ball too long at times, and I am sure the Packers are working with him on that, as well.

t. There were a lot of lousy games this weekend, which weren't particularly relevant to anything. I didn't bother with them. (That means you, Buffalo-Cleveland and Washington-Carolina.)

4. Between The Lines - Patriots at Broncos

a. The Patriots pass-protected very well in this game, much better than I expected them to. Matt Light and Nick Kaczur really held their own against Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and others. The Broncos mostly tried to play coverage, and generally didn't blitz a lot, but the Patriots handled their 3- and 4-man rushes virtually every time. Once Light was injured, and replaced by Sebastian Vollmer, I felt like the Patriots expressly didn't want to have him singled up on anybody, and they got more conservative with their protection calls. Of course, on the key play where Vonnie Holliday sacked and stripped Brady, and Dumervil recovered, that was only a 4-man rush, and Vollmer was the victim. The Patriots won this battle on volume, but he Broncos got the biggest play.

b. The Broncos also were outstanding in protection. Orton was never significantly pressured during the game, and the two sacks he took were both coverage sacks, delivered by LBs Rob Ninkovich and Tully Banta-Cain. Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris were outstanding as usual. Although Clady did have Banta-Cain on his sack, it's hard to call the play Ryan's fault. Pressure up the middle forced Orton to step backwards, into the area where Clady had ridden Banta-Cain. Sometimes you take a hit for doing your job right. The interior was strong in protection too, especially Chris Kuper. He does a great job anchoring against power rushers. The Broncos were terrific in this area, and won it going away.

c. The Patriots seemed to want to run the ball at Ryan McBean and Mario Haggan, and had a bit of success at it early with Sammy Morris. After that, they seemed to get away from that plan, only running much from shotgun looks. The Broncos defensive line was up to the task, consistently holding the line of scrimmage, as they have in all five games. Noteworthy performances were turned in by Ronald Fields, Le Kevin Smith, and Kenny Peterson, in addition to McBean. These big guys just continue to hold up. Logan Mankins was tough for the Patriots, and Dan Koppen was steady and crafty. Kaczur had a couple nice early blocks on the opening possession too. This battle was pretty even, in the final analysis.

d. Vince Wilfork was the best all-around player on the field on Sunday, and he couldn't be blocked. If the Patriots don't pay him, I'll be shocked, but there are actually rumblings that they may not. The rest of the Patriots defensive line got pushed around in the running game. The Broncos blockers were terrific in opening up holes for Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan. Clady, Harris, and Kuper were especially noteworthy for their efforts in the running game. Wilfork did make a key stop on third-and-short, and blew up Hamilton on the play. Moreno's 4.2 yard average was a lot better than teams usually get from the Patriots. This is a win for the Broncos.

e. Remember a year ago, when the Patriots physically dominated the Broncos on both lines? That did not happen Sunday. The matchup was pretty even, with a slight edge going to the Broncos. This was very important to the final outcome of the game, as always.

(I am scrapping the BTL feature for another game. I am pretty overloaded lately, and I need to save the 90 minutes per week. It seemed like the best place to cut from. Sorry for anybody who will miss it.)

5. Weird comment from Pat Kirwan on NFL.com:

5. Things I didn't like

When the visiting Patriots lost the coin toss in overtime and the Broncos drove the field and kicked a winning field goal, it left me wanting more than that to decide a winner. Wouldn't it have been great if, after Denver's field goal, Tom Brady had one drive to score a touchdown?

Is Kirwan saying that Brady should get even more special treatment, because he's Brady, or is he saying that the NFL should allow both teams to get the ball at least once in overtime, as a rule for all teams? I typically like Kirwan's work, but this has me pretty confused.

And for the record, I don't think it would have been great if Brady had one drive to score a touchdown. To me, moving down the field after winning the toss, and kicking a winning FG is legitimate. I also think the Broncos play-calling would have been a bit different, once Knowshon Moreno got them inside the 30, if they felt like they really needed to play for a TD.

6. Big up Lindsay Jones of the Denver Post, for reminding us, via Twitter, of somebody who hasn't come forth with their mea culpa yet. I'm looking at you, Rick Reilly, purveyor of puff pieces.

Actually, Reilly's words were more mean-spirited than anybody's, so he really owes Josh McDaniels an apology.

@DenverBroncos : Deadspin compiles all the not-so-nice things Rick Reilly wrote about McDaniels last spring. Pretty interesting. http://deadspin.com/5379838/delighting-in-rick-reillys-massively-wrong-broncos-predictions

I don't normally read Deadspin, but nice work by Tommy Creggs here. Some interesting reminders:

Reilly on April 3rd: "And none of it would've happened without McDaniels' ham-handed style and his Macy's-balloon ego. I have a buddy who honestly believes McDaniels thinks this is fantasy football; that Pat Bowlen gave him a whole team to play with and screw over in his own image and what the hell, if his moves don't work out, his league has a special "mulligan" rule and he can start over. Only there's no "oops" rule in the NFL. Years from now, the Cutler Catastrophe will go down as the dumbest thing in Boy Blunder's very short coaching career. By then, perhaps he will be your waiter at Olive Garden."

That was right after the Cutler trade. Nice, huh? Try this one out:

Reilly on April 29th: "To repeat: Boy Blunder used a [first-round pick] to take a second. And if the Broncos are going to be as lame as I think they're going to be-4-12 perhaps-that first-round pick will be very high. McDaniels is the worst combination of things: Terribly naïve and doubly confident. Bronco fans, you're screwed."

And one more pearl;

Reilly on September 29th: "You can't just bolt your team because you think it's going to suck. (Which the Broncos are. There is no debating that. They are going to lose more than France. Just because you worked under Bill Belichick and you wear your sweatshirt like Bill Belichick does not mean you are Bill Belichick.)"

I would have been glad to debate Reilly on September 29th, or any other day. And if Josh McDaniels was my waiter at Olive Garden, I'd tip him pretty well, because I tip well, and because I bet the service would be outstanding.

I mean, like they say on ESPN, C'mon Man! This drivel was worse than what came from any of the serious-ish reporters, right? Your garden-variety John Clayton, Peter King, or Don Banks were smug and disconnected from reality, but it wasn't personal. With Reilly, this was clearly PERSONAL. Where are you at, Rick? Being a Denver guy, I suspect you'll see this, or at least hear about it, from somebody who does. Ted Bartlett from MileHighReport.com wants to know where you're at with this today, and is directly, publicly asking, on behalf of the thousands who realize how wrong you were, and think we have a great Head Coach.

Hell, if I find out that Chad Henne's tattoo is actually beautifully and tastefully done, and I had it all wrong, you can bet that I'll man up to it publicly. Same goes for anything I ever say, in all seriousness. Maybe accountability to readers is a blogger thing, I don't know.

7. Retired for John Elway

8. So, there's a hellaciously stupid line of thought that's circulating throughout the punditry (as always, meant negatively.) It seems that there are two kinds of people: those who dichotomize, and those who don't. The punditry tends to dichotomize, and there are two kinds of coaches right now. Hot Coordinators (including some retreads like Mike Nolan, Gregg Williams, and Mike Mularkey), and Super Bowl Winning Retreads. And lemme tell you, nobody wants a Retread. Why not? Because they're Retreads, stupid!

My favorite contrarian Andrew Perloff tells us so in his crack column Against The Grain: ("A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis." Just in case you were wondering....)

3. The NFL information men are hot on the trail of finding out where former Super Bowl-winning coaches like Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher will end up. But shouldn't we be asking ourselves if those coaches are the right hires for franchises like Washington, Dallas and Carolina? A retread coach with a ring is still just a retread. Duplicating that kind of success is still a longshot in the NFL. Some of the organization problems within those teams would cause just as big a headache for a proven winner.

Perloff has a point about the organization problems, but calling somebody a retread, and assuming that they suddenly can't coach is asinine. Analysts who don't know how to analyze always look for correlation, and assume causation, where there often is none.

Some teams, like the Redskins and Cowboys, will almost certainly make big-splash hires. Some, like the Bills and Jaguars, will be cost conscious, and probably hire a coordinator. Some, like the Panthers, could go either way. You can believe that whatever is deemed to be the trend du jour, (probably hiring coordinators), the other path will be criticized. Such is life with the dichotomizing punditry.

9. Another fun Ted Bartlett prognostication from the preseason:

The Broncos are going to have the best defense in the AFC West.

I guess I am just hot this year. :)

That's all I have for this week. Have a great Tuesday, and beyond, and we'll see you Saturday for Lighting Up The Scoreboard, even as I will be at Notre Dame this weekend for their game against USC. It will be my first time seeing Touchdown Jesus, so we'll see what that does for me as a guy who grew up Catholic. Maybe I will tweet from the game. Follow me at @TedBartlett905. Thanks for reading, and go Broncos!!!

New England Patriots 53 man roster - some thoughts

MaPatsFan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 03:04:36 -0000

by Stephan Savoia - AP

7 months ago: New England Patriots head football coach Bill Belichick looks over his rookies during football minicamp at the team's practice facility in Foxborough, Mass., Friday morning, May 1, 2009 (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

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We stay with 2 QB's, LB is a bit weak, TE will be a position to watch, OL is stacked on the interior...let's break it down position by position (props to NESilver for his comment in this thread)

Offense: 25

QB: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer (2) - Odd we keep only 2, but that could change when the season starts.
RB: Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis (5) - Solid group.
WR: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis, Saim Aiken, Julian Edelman (6) - Break out the air raid sirens. Edelman looked like "Little Welker".
TE: Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker, Michael Matthews (3) - Like this group, Matthews is a big man which must mean "blocking TE". Baker has good hands which we haven't seen in NE TE's for a long time.
OL: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Nick Kaczur, Sebastian Vollmer, Rich Ohrnberger, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell (9) - Deep on the interior, Vollmer is the next stud.

Defense: 25

DL: Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Ron Brace, Mike Wright, Myron Pryor (7) - Liking the depth, glad to see Pryor make the roster
DE/OLB: Derrick Burgess, Tully Banta-Cain (2) - Can you say, "4-3?" I knew you could. Here comes the pass rush.
LB: Adalius Thomas, Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich (6) - Might be considered a little thin, possibly why NE is experimenting with a 4-3.
CB: Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, Terrence Wheatley (5) - Wheatley barely hung on to his spot. I hope a "shutdown corner" emerges.
S: Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Patrick Chung, Brandon McGowan, Matthew Slater (5) - Good group, although Slater will, most likely, be IR'd.

Specialists: 3

K: Stephen Gostkowski - What can I say? One of the best kickers in the league. A machine through the uprights and consistently boots kickoffs into the endzone.
P: Chris Hanson - Game changer. Massive hangtime and very good accuracy.
LS: Jake Ingram - Many laughed when Hoodie drafted Ingram. The rookie wins the long snapper battle.

Injured Reserve

OLB: Shawn Crable - Depressing. The dude can't catch a break.
RB: Chris Taylor
OL: George Bussey - Adds depth for next year.
LB: Tyrone McKenzie - Looking forward to seeing him inside for 2010.

Poll

What do you think of the roster?

Lovin' it!

524 votes

Too early to tell.

722 votes

Hate it.

66 votes

1312 votes | Poll has closed

Patriots changes by position: Offensive Line

MaPatsFan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:54:12 -0000

via www.boston.com

View full size photo »

Membership in "The Pig Pile" must require facial hair and biceps the size of a redwood. Don't let me forget tipping the scales at over 300 pounds. Yup, really big boys. Torn apart by a dominant Giants defense, they have been held accountable to some degree for the Super Bowl XLII loss. Not unwarranted, Brady was sacked five times. However, there's no place like the "Pig Pile" for tearing up a player and spitting him out, so I give them some leeway over what has been an incredibly long run without a break. Sure, there's five months between the end of the season and training camp, but after four or five years, injuries will take there toll, especially at a position of constant contact.

In 2008, Matt Cassel was sacked 47 times to Tom Brady's 21 in 2007. That, in my mind, was less an OL breakdown and more an inexperienced QB who needed time to develop a pocket sense. With a long stretch to rest and heal, our starters come back intact. This is a good thing. Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and Nick Kaczur comprise one of the best offensive lines in football. And with Brady under center, you can bet he'll be upright and launching. From a backup standpoint, Mark LeVoir, Dan Connolly, Russ Hochstein, Billy Yates, and Ryan O'Callaghan are all multi-year Patriots and have a great deal of experience in the system. Again, this is a very good thing. The only spot where we don't have a third option on the depth chart is left tackle, but it wouldn't be a stretch to move some of the other guys around to cover.

I'm very stoked about this year's offensive line. JohnHannahRules, PhD Pig Pile may have more to say and training camp will give us a plethora of information but for now, I see a lot of upside to the front five.

Poll

Is the offensive line ready to rock?

Yes

421 votes

No

45 votes

Too early to tell

140 votes

606 votes | Poll has closed

Shots Heard 'Round The Web - Patriots Links 6/09/09

Marima — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:34:25 -0000

Richard Seymour celebrates after recovering a fumble in the final two minutes of play against the Seattle Seahawks on December 7, 2008. The Patriots defeated the Seahawks in Seattle 24-21.

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TOP SHOTS

Erik Scalavino notes Richard Seymour, also in the last year of his contract, feels he will be better than last year.

"I’m looking to build on that at this point. That’s my focus," Seymour said Monday at the golf tourney. "Statistics can be misleading, but at the same time, I said before that season that I felt a lot better, and the statistics spoke for themselves. I matched my career high for sacks and tackles. I’m looking to be better than that this season because I’ve put in the work and I’ve been able to train.

"I’m 29 years old now and I really feel better than I did as a rookie. Total body-wise, I feel great. I’m stronger, I’m leaner. I just feel good all the way around. I’m definitely looking for big things this season. I’m at the end of my contract and I’m in a great situation. I know the ability and talent I have."

Karen Guregian reports Patriots' owner Robert Kraft's thoughts on the Vince Wilfork situation.

"I’m a big fan of Vince Wilfork. Unfortunately, the business part of this game, this is something that goes on every year with most teams," Kraft said. "We’re lucky to have Vince. I hope he’s here for the long term. These things usually have a way of working themselves out. We’re privileged to have some pretty good football people making the decisions.

"We’re in a unique period in the evolution of the labor relations, so there is a lot of things factoring in here. But in the end, everyone should know that the Patriots are always trying to make decisions to put our franchise and team in the best position to win consistently. That’s what our mantra is."

More Shots after the jump...

TEAM SHOTS

Patriots.com mini-camp schedule and coverage for this week.
Patriots Now! Charitable Foundation Golf Tournament. (6 min. video)
Paul Perillo talks with Richard Seymour and Tank Williams at the golf tournament yesterday.
Paul Perillo notes Randy Moss easily took the prize for the most unique looking of all Patriots players.
Andy Hart wonders if Patrick Pass will replace Heath Evans if he makes the roster.

LOCAL SHOTS

Mike Reiss points out that fan favorite RB Kevin Faulk is entering his 11th year in the NFL with no evidence, or future plans, of slowing down. Reiss also offers some Nuggets from the Golf Course.
Mike Reiss notes that if Vince Wilfork doesn't attend the Patriots mandatory mini-camp tomorrow he could lose up to $500,000.
Christopher Price offers some pretty good quotes of note from yesterday's golf tournament in Bolton.
Dale & Holley (WEEI) hosted an appearance by Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork, sharing their thoughts on the upcoming season, Rodney Harrison and Wilfork's contract situation. (16 min. audio)
Dale & Holley (WEEI) Patriots owner Robert Kraft sat down at the New England Patriots Charitable Foundation Golf Tournament to kick off the annual Dale and Holley Owners Series. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell joined the show as well to talk about the state of the NFL and the New England Patriots. (36 min. audio)
Chad Finn offers the transcript of Vince Wilfork's WEEI sportsradio Q & A.
Christopher Price offers some highlights from Robert Kraft's and Roger Goodell's conversation on WEEI Monday.
Chris Gasper focuses on Logan Mankins, who like Wilfork is in the last year of his rookie contract but opted to participate in the voluntary OTAs. Quick video here.
Karen Guregian says that contract talks aren't a big deal to Logan Mankins.
Christopher Gasper talks with Matthew Slater and Terrence Wheatley about kick-off returns, and Stephen Gostkowski about getting into a rhythm with the new long snappers.
Karen Guregian reports that at the moment, Ty Warren, rehabbing his surgeries, is on track to be a full participant in training camp at the end of July.
Jessica Isner tells Bostonians to be on the lookout for Paul "Fitzy" Fitzgerald who will be roaming the city streets looking for contestants for his new NESN game show, "Pocket Money."

LONG SHOTS

Tim Graham (ESPN) Logan Mankins' signature is his bond.
Matt Sohn (Pro Football Weekly) Patriots outlook at inside linebacker beginning to take shape.
Jason Cole (Yahoo! Sports) Manning adjusting to Colts' shaken foundation.
Michael Lombardi (Nat'l Football Post) The Favre Watch.
Alan Schwartz (NY Times) New guidelines on young athlete's concussions stir controversy.
Cold Hard Football Facts looks at a new stat they'll be using, called the Passer Rating Differential.

Divining the McDaniels Way, Part 3 - The Passing Game

Emmett Smith — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:30:08 -0000

This series is the outcome of a month-long collaboration between nycbroncosfan and broncobear. In general, NYC covered the stats and Doc handled most of the writing and analysis. We hope that it sheds light on some of the questions that have arisen as to just what, exactly, Josh McDaniels has been doing with the New England offense over the past four years. It also looks at Jay Cutler's time as the primary starter in Denver over the past two years to establish where the two Patriots and Broncos do and do not match up. We thoroughly enjoyed working on this project and hope that you will take just as much pleasure in reading it. Hopefully it will answer some of your questions about what to expect of the 2009 Broncos, and we look forward to your comments and critiques. Many thanks to our esteemed colleagues styg50 and hoosierteacher for their input, and to Zappa for his invaluable aid in managing the code and the templates.

Part 1 featured an overview of the Patriots' and Broncos' offenses, while Part 2 focused on the running game. Today, we look at the Passing Game. Of course, much has changed around here lately; as with the previous sections, Part 3 compares the Jay Cutler-led Broncos with the Josh McDaniels-led Patriots. Naturally, the importation of Kyle Orton may have some effect on what the Broncos' passing game is able to accomplish as compared with a Cutler-led offense. However, many issues continue to be relevant - the Broncos still have many of the same weapons and the O-Line remains intact. The purpose is still to see what has been for us as fans, to understand what McDaniels has been doing and to look to the future for whatever clues may be found. In the future, look for additional articles dealing with Chris Simms' background and tendencies as well as Kyle Orton's and some comparative issues between them.

A Short Analysis of NE Offense

There are certain overall patterns that emerged that we expect to see, in degree, from Josh McDaniels when the Broncos take the field in 2009. We've mentioned before that we consider the New England offensive approach to include "a willingness to use the running backs in committee to maximize production from the team, good tight ends that have a specific role in the scheme, and an attack based in three or more receivers, liberal use of the shotgun and passing first, including but not limited to the use of short running-back passes." Those beliefs were borne out by this experience.

We have also previously noted that New England tends to win because they emphasize preparation, knowledge, excellent execution of specific roles and intellect as well as physical ability. They tend to play smarter, but do not sacrifice the ability to play very physical football at the same time. This combination of scheme, flexibility, role-specific skill and execution as well as the importance of the team over the individual proved itself to effectively maximize the contribution of its players within their football system.

Because of that, it's impossible to get too specific about New England's tendencies without noting that they change greatly from game to game. It's one constant - the application of the unexpected - and I'd have to consider that a strength of their approach.

Continued inside...

Formations and Impressions

Wikipedia suggests that the Patriots run a variation of the classic Erhardt-Perkins offense. They installed it under Charlie Weis, changed it to suit personnel, gained input from Bill Belichick and also from Urban Meyer and adapted it still further under Josh McDaniels. While their offensive stratagem began as an Erhardt-Perkins approach, it is now several generations removed.

Secondly, and this is essential: As Doc has noted before, in one sense there is no single Patriots offense. Their designation of the Amoeba is a just description. Like all NFL teams, they vary formations and plays at need. New England just seems to do so at a very high level with great intention. That's one of the main facets of the Amoeba Offense. The games Doc saw gave him several specific examples.

Doc: For the game against Indy with the Patriots on the road, the general analysis was not surprising. New England used multiple formations and constantly varied them. While Mike Shanahan would run 10 different plays out of 1 formation. In their game, New England is at times the polar opposite - they never seemed to run the same formation twice in this game and instead frequently ran the same play out of many different formations.

They liked the shotgun in all games, using it anywhere between 45% and 68% of the time: that ratio varied as well. They generally aren't in the same formation on any two plays, and they may not run the same play in a single quarter or half. They use a fullback on about 1 play in 4 or 5, or as little as 1 in 10, depending on down and distance. The running back was most commonly in the I formation or standing next to the quarterback if he was in the shotgun. And, as we will discuss, how much they used certain formations varied greatly by which half it was and tb he score of the game.

New England used the 'spread formation' in which they spread the field both horizontally and vertically, most commonly against St. Louis and NY (Jets) Their variants on the spread (I am using this term somewhat loosely, although the Pats' tendency to use this formation both vertically and laterally was obvious) included using a tight end and/or a back as receivers and varying between 3 and 5 receivers on any given play. Anyone could be kept as a blocker - wide receiver, tight end or back. I did not count it as a spread formation with less than three wideouts unless the play specifically spread the field both horizontally and laterally. And, any and all receivers (WR, TE and/or RB/FB) could be on a particular route, with lots of routes out of the same formation(s). Again, in the Indy game, they rarely used a single formation with multiple variants, running a dizzying number of formations that stretched the Colts defense to the breaking point. In other games, running different plays out of the same formation was common, although in constantly varying degrees.

The complexity of New England's attack really stood out. Indianapolis, as a different example, uses a lot of routes that snarl the corners and safeties on one receiver while the other gets open: they employ lots of misdirection routes, and they do them better than anyone I've watched. The Pats, on the other hand, used a wide range of one- and two-tight end sets to counter, with from one to four other receivers, intermingling dominant shotgun formations with the quarterback taking snaps under center and different running-back sets. The tight ends were constantly on the move to create different looks, often with one tight end in motion. Even having a TE dropping back into a running back's stance was frequent.

While they like the 'spread' formations, against Indy they used them less than I expected. They do have a wide array of spread-type formations that they do employ, though, and I saw them most heavily against the Rams, particularly in the first half. When they do use a spread formation, even with an empty backfield, they are as likely to run a draw or an off-tackle run from a handoff as they are to pass. In some plays I watched, the RB can drop back from his 'receivers' position just behind the O line at the snap or Cassel might run, etc.

They also tried several wide-receiver screens and a couple of tight-end screens mixed in, off of spread formations. It's clear that as frequently as they use it, it's just a tool to them, rather than a dominating preference. It was clear that they wield the tools - the tools don't wield them, which is an important difference. However, since the weakness of their use of the spread - ignoring zone in favor of man coverage and blitzing far more often - has been exposed, I would expect McDaniels and New England separately to begin to change that tendency over 2009. They will probably change tools, in degree.

I saw a play using Welker that interested me against Miami. He started at the LOWR position, in a 2-up, 2-back receiver formation that New England likes to use. Just after the snap, Welker took off at a dead run to his right across the field, moving just above the line of scrimmage. By the time Welker reached the far side, Cassel was out of the pocket, rolling right; and while no one else was free, Welker had time for coffee. Easy throw and catch, 12 yards. Eddie Royal would be very tough to stop with that route, perhaps even impossible.

By the way, that's a common formation for New England. In it, they employ five down O-Linemen. There are two receivers - one a tight end (it varies as to which one), upright in a receiver stance behind the front 5 and on the outer edges of the O-Line. The second of those receivers might be a back, a tight end or a wideout. Two wide receivers are out wide. From this beginning, they run a wide array of routes and options, including bootleg, play action, the above-mentioned route and a nearly-endless set of other options. Miami uses the same formation, with the left inside receiver being a running back, to run one version of their Wildcat, a formation that had some initial success but seemed to sputter as the season went on.

The thing that struck me about the Patriots' style is that they are constantly probing, pushing, and looking for a weakness. You can watch it unfold, attacking one point after another, quickly, but in sequence. It's not as smash-mouth an approach as the original Erhardt-Perkins or, say, Miami or Pittsburgh would use. It's perhaps more like fencing than boxing.

Playing the Colts is probably a bit like being in a knife fight - they are constantly cutting at you until you are exhausted. New England seems slightly different - you can watch them constantly looking for the best adjustments. This probing side of the amoeba tendency alone will win its own certain share of close games. Making adjustments is a huge skill, the Broncos has often lacked in over the past years and Josh McDaniels does it very well.

The Patriots obviously like being unpredictable. Most teams do, of course, but in the film I watched, New England took it to the extreme. While there are statistical norms, in any single game there are no specific passing or rushing downs for the Pats. They will pass on short yardage, run (often a draw) on 3rd and long, 2nd and short or any other situation. Overall, it's hard to stop, and I suspect that it's nearly impossible to predict. Obviously, the matchups are a constant series of smaller battles, and those remain individual, but the overall tenor was partly based in avoiding normal responses to the given situations in order to confuse the opposing defense. As NYC's statistics showed, it works far more often that it fails.

Passing and the O-Lines

Performance of Pats and Broncos O-Lineman in 2008 and 2009 Season Age
	NE Starters	'09 Age	Starts	Sacks	Pen	Sks+Pen	DEN Starters	'09 Age	Starts	Sacks	Pen	Sks+Pen
LT	Light	31	16	7.5	1	8.5	Clady	23	16	0.5	3	3.5
LG	Mankins	27	16	5	2	7	Hamilton	32	16	2.5	6	8.5
C	Koppen	30	16	4.5	2	6.5	Wiegmann	36	16	1	3	4
RG	Neal(Yates)	33(29)	9(7)	2(6.25)	2(1)	4(7.25)	Kuper	27	16	0	4	4
RT	Kaczur(LeVoir)	30(27)	14(2)	4(2)	3(0)	7(2)	Harris	24	16	2.5	2	4.5
Tot/Avg		30.2	80	31.25	11	42.25		28.4	80	6.5	18	24.5

New England's O-Line was clearly at its weakest when being asked to pass-block. Cassel's sack percentage was 26th in the league, but the Patriots O-Line's pass protection was not merely sub-par. Its players are aging and the line's effectiveness is beginning to break down, although these may be separate issues. Matt Light and Nick Kaczur have been criticized by some writers as having lost a step, and their production as a line is certainly down. Four of their starters will be over age 30 during the upcoming season: Light (31), Dan Koppen (30), Stephen Neal (33) and Kaczur (30). Is it age?

That's one possible explanation, but they aren't doddering geriatrics, either. I wondered at whether the explanation was accurate, and after listening to hoosierteacher and styg50 I don't see it as that simple. The issues of decreased physical flexibility are probably legitimate, the injuries hampered them and the changes of personnel meant that players weren't used to each other. In both zone blocking and in gap blocking, the timing is key. In pass protection, you have to be able to trust the guy next to you, and that didn't always work out for the Pats. There were issues that came down to simply missing assignments

The injury bug hit the right side of the line, and Billy Yates was guilty of 6.25 sacks in 7 games before Steve Neal returned. Once Neal took over, he was a little better, being responsible for 2 sacks in 9 games. Backup RT Mark LeVoir was guilty of 2 sacks in two starts. 31-year old left tackle Matt Light was dunned with 7.5 over the season. Regardless of your opinion on the source of the problems, they will be looking for help in the draft or FA.

As noted, the Broncos were on the other extreme. Their linemen were charged with only 7.5 sacks over the course of the season, with rookie Kory Lichtensteiger being thrust in at RG for a few plays and giving up one. Rookie left tackle Ryan Clady was charged with but one half-sack and had only 3 penalties. RG Chris Kuper didn't give up a single sack in 16 games, but isn't even mentioned in Pro Bowl or All-Pro discussions. Casey Wiegmann gave up a single sack and made KC wonder why on earth they let him go (so do we). Ben Hamilton was the 'weak link', but while 6 penalties is too high, he give up only 2.5 sacks in 16 starts and seemed completely healed from his concussion.

What we can hope for...

TD and INT Rates
	TD%	INT%
DEN '07-'08	4.05%	2.91%
NE '05-'08	5.61%	2.13%

Better TD and INT rates - Perhaps these numbers have more to do with the player's decision-making ability than with coaching or scheme - but we can hope, right? Even if it's a decision-making issue, part of that is obviously coaching. The reality is that Cutler was prone to certain mistakes - not looking off the primary target and forcing throws were among them. At times the problems was with the receiver, but not often. Percentages like these tend to look small, but let's put them into perspective: Over a 500-pass attempt season (a modest number), those rates translate into a 20 TD/14.5 INT season versus a 28 TD/10.7 INT season. These are not small differences.

McDaniels did a remarkable job with Cassel, who hadn't previously started a game since high school. He molded the game to Cassel, increasing the complexity quickly over the season, and taught Cassel to take advantage of the game. The raw material that he will have to work with in Orton and Simms will at least be acceptable (in our opinion) and it could be tremendous, as we'll talk about in those later articles. As many among us have noted, Orton has a lot more potential than we would have believed prior to expanded analysis (and we have more on that to come), Chris Simms was a very good quarterback prior to his injury and there is no reason to believe that he won't be a very good one now. With either Orton or Simms, we look for the numbers to improve in overall touchdowns and to decrease in interceptions based upon what McDaniels accomplished in New England.

And, what we can expect in protection

Sacks and Yards Lost
	Sacks	Yds Lost	Sack%
DEN '07	32	175	5.85%
DEN '08	12	74	1.90%
DEN Avg	22	124.5	3.73%
NE '05	28	202	4.73%
NE '06	29	190	5.22%
NE '07	21	128	3.46%
NE '08	48	221	8.25%
NE Avg	31.5	185.3	5.39%

The same pass protection - at least we can hope for it. As noted, here's a category where the Broncos were far superior to the Patriots in 2008. As everyone here at MHR knows, Ryan Clady's arrival at left tackle and the ascension of Ryan Harris to the starting lineup at right tackle had quite a bit to do with that. Clady was charged with merely 0.5 sacks, while 2.5 sacks were attributed to Harris. Denver has the bookends for a happy and effective O-Line for many years to come. Of course, Casey Wiegmann's contribution cannot be overlooked - Wiegmann was only charged with 1.0 sack and made the Pro Bowl for the first time in his 13-year career, although as an alternate.

Cutler does have very good mobility, and the Broncos' love of the bootleg was a very effective tool over much of the season. Neither Orton nor Simms is quite as athletic, but with the increased levels of protection, either should be able to take advantage and get the throws off in time. The scheme and coaching of McDaniels' approach should be of benefit.

New England will have to do better than they did last season, but Josh won't be there to worry about it. Brady's faster release was part of the improvement in 2007 (as was a lightened injury bug), but Cassel didn't take sacks exclusively because of his pocket presence and throw mechanics. He was chased, hurried and harassed due to poor O line play. He became quick to pull it down and run or to throw the ball through enlightened self-interest - it kept him off the turf. The lines starters just weren't good in pass protection and their backups didn't play well. A lack of depth is a tough thing to overcome, as the Broncos are no doubt considering as the draft beckons.

Pass-Depth and -Direction Propensity - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '06-'08
	Short	Deep	Short Left	Short Middle	Short Right	Deep Left	Deep Middle	Deep Right
DEN '07-'08	81.0%	19.0%	31.2%	16.8%	33.0%	6.2%	5.4%	7.4%
NE '06-'08*	82.9%	17.1%	31.8%	20.7%	30.4%	6.7%	4.0%	6.4%

*Unfortunately these statistics are unavailable prior to the 2006 season, so in this instance we can only look at New England through a three-year window.

More short passes - These numbers don't exactly jump off the screen, as the differentials between the Broncos' and Patriots' tendencies are not as large as other examples. Not surprisingly, it looks like we can expect a very slightly-heavier reliance upon short passes, especially over the middle of the field. Cutler's accuracy will be a boon here. Over a 500-pass attempt season, the additional 3.9% of short-middle passes only translates to 20 balls going that way, but it's still a difference. The overall scheme is unlikely to change. In '07-'08, Cutler/Bates liked the deep passes on the right and middle substantially more often than did NE over the same period. That's likely to change.

This is another area where the incoming scheme and the current QB options seem ready-made for each other. Both Simms and Orton seem capable, based on past performance, of taking advantage of a NE-style scheme and staying, for the most part, with shorter, more accurate passes. Cutler's incredible velocity could even be a downside at times, leaving his receivers with bent and injured fingers and hands. A lighter ball, accurately thrown, can lead to better numbers in the short passing game.

The New England tendency has been to stretch the field both vertically and horizontally. Both Simms and Orton are capable of making some of the deep throws. Regarding Orton, TedB, in this week's Shallow Thoughts and Nearsighted Observations noted,

In this highlight package, you can see Orton hit on slants, deep outs, fades and crossing patterns, but what I was really impressed with was his touch on deep throws. This used to be his weakness, but he's vastly improved his skills in this area. He shows a lot of skill in dropping the ball over the top of the CB, and outside of the S against Cover-2 looks. That's something which neither of our last 2 QBs had much skill at. One of the keys to the McDaniels offense is challenging the deep outside, and I am confident that Orton has the skill set to do it.

That's good news. As we'll talk about in the future, Simms also has some skill in that area.

Pass Distribution

Pass Production by Position - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
Pos	Rec	Yds	YPR	TD	% of Rec	Pos	Rec	Yds	YPR	TD	% of Rec
DEN RB	102	836	8.20	3	14.3%	NE RB	316	2,842	8.99	9	22.3%
DEN TE	164	2,009	12.25	16	23.0%	NE TE	218	2,539	11.65	31	15.3%
DEN WR	446	5,459	12.24	27	62.6%	NE WR	886	11,180	12.62	84	62.4%
DEN Tot	712	8,304	11.66	46	100%	NE Tot	1,420	16,561	11.66	124	100%

We took these numbers for the two years that Cutler started for the Broncos and the last 4 years for New England. What are striking are the similarities, if you look at overall averages.

As you can see, the Broncos and Patriots had very similar passing distributions in two areas - fullback and wide receiver. Fullback is a small consideration for each offense, and that may influence the used of certain players. Evans only received 3 passes his entire year (10 games). Morris subbed as a lead blocker at times.

Although stats showed the fullback passes over the 4 years notched a hefty 3.4% total for NE, that number is heavily skewed by 2005, where Patrick Pass (playing some RB due to injuries) caught 23 balls and Heath Evans 10. The following year, Pass only caught 2 and Evans 7. Over the next two years, with Pass gone, Evans only caught 4 balls in 2007 and then 3 in his 10 games of 2008. Clearly - as McDaniels ran the offense over time, the use of the fullback as a receiver declined to almost nothing.

If McDaniels isn't concerned with the fullback position as a rusher or receiver when he comes to training camp in Denver, he has precedent in his work with New England. Andrew Pinnock would be perfect in McDaniels' offense as it was run with the Pats. Not surprisingly, he survived the purge. For those of us who hope to see Spencer Larsen at linebacker and Hillis at running back/H-back, that's good news.

Both teams chose the WR option about 62.5% of the time, and it's safe to say that the WR pass was the primary approach of both passing attacks. The discrepancy that matters is between the TE and RB. Denver, under Shanahan and his coordinators relied on the tight end pass 23.0% of the time, but only threw to the RB 10.7%. McDaniels while at NE preferred to throw to his running backs 18.9% of the time, but went to the TE on 15.3% of the throws. This fact has been blown out of proportion, in our opinion.

Tight End Receiving Statistics - Broncos '07-'08 & Patriots '05-'08
Team/Year	Rec	Yds	YPR	TD	Lg	RPG	YPG
DEN '07	81	891	11.0	8	41	5.1	55.7
DEN '08	83	1,118	13.5	8	72	5.2	69.9
DEN Avg	82	1,004	12.25	8	56.5	5.2	62.8
NE '05	57	738	13.0	13	45	3.6	46.1
NE '06	81	1,037	12.8	6	40	5.1	64.8
NE '07	48	471	9.8	10	35	3.0	29.4
NE '08	31	302	9.7	2	29	1.9	18.9
NE Avg	54.25	637	11.7	7.75	37.25	3.4	39.8

Using the Tight Ends

The issue that many Broncos fans have is that this could mean that tight ends Graham et al (including Scheffler, who is training with the team and who they have said that they value) might be on the receiving end of less passes. In reality, we don't know anything of the sort. McDaniels has noted publicly that he likes the idea of using Scheffler's receiving skills. We only know two things - McDaniels was the offensive coordinator under Belichick, who utilized the running back pass 23% of the time. And, that style was inherited with some changes from Charlie Weis and it worked.

Notice that New England's passes to tight ends dropped from 81 in 2006, (the same number that Scheffler and Graham together caught in 2007), to 48 in 2007, to just 31 in 2008. Why? It might be because Randy Moss and Wes Welker, both far better targets, came to town, combined with the departure of Daniel Graham to Denver. Some have argued that New England isn't happy with tight end Ben Watson, but other than media speculation I haven't found specific evidence of that and there is some evidence to the contrary. The Patriots now have better receivers, so they get them the ball more. It's simple.

The Patriots' tight ends were very active in 2008, running a wide variety of sets with both 1 and 2 tight ends. However, they blocked, spread the field, created mismatches, chips and generally made life miserable for the opposing defense and caught only 8% less passes as a factor of the whole attack than did the ones in Denver, despite the fact that Watson was a disappointment to them in receiving and the other two were even worse in that department. Again, it's likely that McDaniels is just using what he has to best advantage. The second thing we do know is based in that McDaniels has been repeatedly on record as saying that his offense will be different from what he has done in that past.

If his offense will be so different, why do an extensive analysis? It's because every coach will make certain decisions and preferences based on what he has seen work. He will then make changes based on the things that his imagination tells him will work in the future. We can't know the second, but we can become more cognitive of the things that have been done, what has and hasn't worked, and what areas he might see as needs or options, as well as situation like the fullback receptions where there is a clear direction. That is what we will cover next, in our section on Down/Distance Play Propensities and Conclusions

Digging Around More in the Draft Day Mind of Scott Pioli and the Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Thorman — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:55:47 -0000

Courtesy of AP reader soybon

Trying to guess what players teams will draft at the end of April is at best a complete spin of the roulette wheel. That's why all of these mock drafts (ours included) are best used as information conduits about top prospects rather than a specific, pick by pick plan. That's why we're talking about draft trends today, AP readers.

As the vast majority of you already knew, Kansas City Chiefs GM Scott Pioli spent 2001 to 2008 in charge of the New England Patriots personnel department. During that time, in case you can't recall, the Patriots were pretty gosh darn good then. Super Bowls and stuff. Pro Bowls even...

As the person in charge of pro personnel, Scott Pioli was heavily involved in the NFL draft. I know Bill Belichick and others were big players in the Patriots draft war room but for now, we're going to try to draw some draft day conclusions about what Scott Pioli may do based on those Patriots' drafts from '01 to '08. More specifically, since this year's draft talk seems to center more on positions than marquee players, let's look at how Scott Pioli drafted by position while he was in New England. Yes, I'm sure this has been done before on AP. But since you're already here, buy the ticket, take the ride.

Eight years of drafting. 67 players drafted. That's our starting point. FIrst, the offense.

C	G	T	QB	RB	FB	TE	WR	K
1	3	6	4	4	2	6	6	2

A couple things we can immediately glean from this. First, Pioli isn't likely to chase after too many running backs. Aside from the BPA pick of Laurence Maroney in the first round of the 2006 draft, Pioli hasn't spent higher than a fourth round pick on a running back. It's clear the Patriots were ahead of the league in the running back by committee trend we're seeing now and that Pioli puts less emphasis on the position.

One really interesting stat to me is the six tight ends drafted, with two of those picks coming in the first round. Seems a bit contrary to normal football strategy, no? Is this another indicator that best player available is the draft day mantra in Pioli's head? Perhaps.

Pioli is all over the draft map with his offensive linemen picks. The highest pick was spent on the offensive line was a guard in 2005 (32nd pick of that draft). After that, Pioli picked tackles and guards throughout the draft.

One more interesting aspect of the Pioli Patriot drafts is that half of the six wide receivers taken were drafted in the second round.Two of those players, Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson, were pretty much busts. The other second round pick, Deion Branch, had productive years in New England and then the Patriots did what they do best and parlayed Branch into a first round pick from the Seahawks.

Okay, on to the defensive picks.

DB	LB	DT	NT	DE
14	9	4	1	5

Right off the bat I'll mention that Scott Pioli didn't mess around when it comes to defensive ends for the Patriots 3-4 defense. Two of those five DE picks were in the first round and one more was in the second round. On top of that, the one nose tackle pick Vince Wilfork, was also chosen in the first round.

Other than the high priority on defensive ends, there realy isn't anything earth shattering here. Pioli has spread his picks fairly evenly across the positions requiring the most depth and players.

After the jump, I've listed all of the New England Patriots' draft picks from 2001 to 2008 so you can take a look at them for yourself.

Anything jump out at you?

Year	Round	Pick	Player	Position
2003	5	164	Dan Koppen	C
2007	1	24	Brandon Meriweather	DB
2003	2	36	Eugene Wilson	DB
2008	2	62	Terrence Wheatley	DB
2005	3	84	Ellis Hobbs	DB
2001	3	86	Brock Williams	DB
2004	3	95	Guss Scott	DB
2004	4	113	Dexter Reid	DB
2003	4	120	Asante Samuel	DB
2008	4	129	Jonathan Wilhite	DB
2005	4	133	James Sanders	DB
2001	6	200	Leonard Myers	DB
2007	6	202	Mike Richardson	DB
2006	7	229	Willie Andrews	DB
2004	7	233	Christian Morton	DB
2001	1	6	Richard Seymour	DE
2003	1	13	Ty Warren	DE
2004	2	63	Marquise Hill	DE
2002	4	126	Jarvis Green	DE
2006	6	191	Jeremy Mincey	DE
2003	4	117	Dan Klecko	DT
2007	4	127	Kareem Brown	DT
2006	6	206	LeKevin Smith	DT
2003	7	243	Ethan Kelley	DT
2006	4	106	Garrett Mills	FB
2003	7	234	Spencer Nead	FB
2005	1	32	Logan Mankins	G
2006	6	205	Dan Stevenson	G
2007	7	247	Mike Elgin	G
2006	4	118	Stephen Gostkowski	K
2001	7	216	Owen Pochman	K
2008	1	10	Jerod Mayo	LB
2008	3	78	Shawn Crable	LB
2001	5	163	Hakim Akbar	LB
2005	5	170	Ryan Claridge	LB
2007	6	180	Justin Rogers	LB
2008	6	197	Bo Ruud	LB
2007	7	211	Oscar Lua	LB
2003	7	239	Tully Banta-Cain	LB
2001	7	239	T.J. Turner	LB
2004	1	21	Vince Wilfork	NT
2008	3	94	Kevin O'Connell	QB
2002	4	117	Rohan Davey	QB
2003	6	201	Kliff Kingsbury	QB
2005	7	230	Matt Cassel	QB
2006	1	21	Laurence Maroney	RB
2004	4	128	Cedric Cobbs	RB
2007	6	208	Justise Hairston	RB
2002	7	237	Antwoine Womack	RB
2001	2	48	Matt Light	T
2001	4	96	Kenyatta Jones	T
2005	3	100	Nick Kaczur	T
2006	5	136	Ryan O'Callaghan	T
2007	5	171	Clint Oldenburg	T
2007	6	209	Corey Hilliard	T
2002	1	21	Daniel Graham	TE
2004	1	32	Ben Watson	TE
2006	3	86	David Thomas	TE
2001	4	119	Jabari Holloway	TE
2001	6	180	Arther Love	TE
2005	7	255	Andy Stokes	TE
2006	2	36	Chad Jackson	WR
2003	2	45	Bethel Johnson	WR
2002	2	65	Deion Branch	WR
2008	5	153	Matt Slater	WR
2004	5	164	P.K. Sam	WR
2002	7	253	David Givens	WR