SB Nation - Richard Seymour

Opponent History: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

sireric — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:58:10 -0000

Buffalo Bills (5-8) vs New England Patriots (8-5)
Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 1:00 PM EST
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Well, this is easily the worst week of the year for doing this post. I get to go back and review all of the pathetic showings the Buffalo Bills have had versus the New England Patriots over the last five years. This will be the 100th meeting between these two teams, with the Patriots hold a commanding 58-40-1 record against the Bills thanks in large part to two long winning streaks. The first was an eleven game win streak that lasted from 1983 to 1987. The second is still active and sits at 12 games. In fact, over the last 18 games versus the Patriots, the Bills are 1-17. Ugly with a capital 'U'. Needless to say, if you want to skip the jump, I don't blame you.

Sunday, October 3, 2004: Patriots 31, Bills 17
This game was tied at half time, but it was all down hill from there. Daniel Graham caught a two-yard pass from Tom Brady to give the Pats the lead, and Richard Seymour picked up a fumble and rumbled 68 yards to seal the deal for the Pats. This game had several big plays in it; Eric Moulds caught a 41-yard pass form Drew Bledsoe for a touchdown, and Terrence McGee returned a kick off 98 yards for another Bills score. The Patriots sacked the statuesque Bledsoe six times and intercepted him once.

Sunday, December 11, 2005: Patriots 35, Bills 7
This game was over shortly after kickoff. The Patriots' offense scored a single touchdown in every quarter. After they scored in the fourth quarter, their defense decided to chip in when James Sanders returned an interception 39 yards for a score. The Raiders' newest signee, one mister J.P. Losman, then hit Josh Reed for a meaningless 51-yard touchdown to eradicate the shutout. The Pats' defense sacked Losman twice and picked him off thrice.

Sunday, October 6, 2006: Patriots 28, Bills 6
Brady was only mediocre in this game. The father of a boy named J.E.T. finished 18/27 for 195 yards and only two touchdowns. For Brady, versus the Bills, that is mediocre, and it was of course still plenty to beat the Bills. The Losman-led Bills offense did next to nothing all game, unless you consider committing four turnovers and getting flagged for nine penalties an accomplishment. Aaron Schobel had two sacks, and Chris Kelsay added another if that helps.

Sunday, November 18, 2007: Patriots 56, Bills 10
Randy Moss and Brady had a nice little game of pitch and catch in this one. Moss finished with 10 catches for 128 yards and four touchdowns. Brady finished 31/39 with 373 yards and five touchdowns; hell Matt Cassel was even 2/2 passing. The Bills' defense should have stayed home for this one, as the Patriots embarrassed the Bills en route to a perfect 16-0 regular season.

Sunday, December 28, 2008: Patriots 13, Bills 0
This time, the Bills' defense showed up, actually holding the Patriots to just 13 points and only 241 total yards. The offense, however, thought they would stay home this time. Looking at the stats for this game, one would have to wonder what happened to the Bills in this one. They committed only one turnover, they were flagged for only three penalties and Fred Jackson rushed for 136 yards on 27 attempts. Trent Edwards finished 14/25 for 128 yards in one of the windiest games ever played at the Ralph.

In case you where curious, I added it up. The Patriots have outscored the Bills 163-40 in the last five games at the Ralph. Excuse me, I need to go vomit.

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Redskins 34, Raiders 13

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:32:23 -0000

Bruce Gradkowski tried to get his third win as a starter in the silver and black. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

Fresh off of a win on the road as 15-point underdogs, the Oakland Raiders (4-8) took on the Washington Redskins (3-9) as underdogs once again. Trying to stay hot behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, the Raiders entered today's game 2-1 when he starts with wins over the Bengals and Steelers. Unfortunately, the game was blacked out locally. Banged up, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis were among the many Redskins out for today's game. Dive in to see how the Raiders fared with the Redskins on a gloomy day at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. A bit of rain was in the air for this one.

Darren McFadden had a nice first quarter catching the ball. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

First Quarter: A pathetic return by Gary Russell of 11 huge yards gave us the ball first. He did, however, make the only key play of the series before a sack by LaRon Landry forced the Raiders to punt the ball to the Redskins. Darren McFadden carried it twice on the opening series and basically went nowhere. Anyway, a 68-yard boot by Shane Lechler set up Washington at their own 20 for their opening drive. A five-yard run by Quinton Ganther was the only real positive play on the series. A sack by Trevor Scott, who has been on fire, and an incomplete pass by Jason Campbell forced a Hunter Smith punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins, who had some room on the return, managed to return it to his own 39 yard line. After Bruce Gradkowski hit Higgins for a nine-yard pass, Justin Fargas fumbled; however, Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot had one foot out of bounds on the recovery. It remained Oakland ball. Gradkowski then hit Zach Miller on a big play, but an offensive pass interference on Chaz Schilens brought it back almost to the original line of scrimmage of the drive. A timeout followed it up. The Raiders couldn't really amount anything after that. Another sack doomed a second consecutive drive and it was Lechler time again. A fair catch was called by Antwaan Randle El and the Redskins had it at their own 22. The defense made some nice plays, specifically Kirk Morrison and Chris Johnson, and a three-and-out forced the Redskins to punt. A big play opened up the next drive for the Raiders, as Gradkowski hit Darren McFadden on a slant for 43 huge yards. Unable to muster anything after that, a field goal by Sebastian Janikowski gave the Raiders a 3-0 lead with just over four minutes still to play in the opening quarter. Faced with a third down, Jason Campbell swung it out to Quinton Ganther on the left side. Busting through, Ganther picked up huge yardage to put Washington into not only Oakland territory, but also field goal range. Once again, the Redskins converted on third down. On the very next play, Fred Davis was hit for a touchdown. After whistled for a 15-yard penalty, the Redskins had to kick from their own 15. A 41-yard return by Gary Russell gave Oakland the ball at midfield. An acrobatic grab by McFadden at the 24 yard line capped a seemingly long first quarter.

Fred Davis found the end zone twice and celebrates with a teammate. [via cdn3.sbnation.com]

Second Quarter: Starting the second quarter, a stupid play call (a give to Gary Russell) cost the Raiders a yard. Zach Miller and Chaz Schilens each made grabs and the Raiders had a goal-to-go from the nine. After a miscue on the give to Justin Fargas, the Raiders hit Zach Miller on third down. He was short, however, but Tom Cable remained aggressive from last week. A fourth down carry and dive by Fargas gave the Raiders a touchdown as they had regained a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. The rain got progressively worse at this point in the game, as noted by commentator Dick Stockton. Fred Davis, open in the secondary, caught a pass and it was for a good gain into Oakland territory. Back-to-back plays by the Raider defense stuffed Quinton Ganther in the backfield. Richard Seymour and Trevor Scott stopped the run and Kirk Morrison and Tommy Kelly blew the next play up on a screen in the backfield. Needing 12 yards on third down, an offsides penalty by Greg Ellis gave the Redskins five free yards. So, another offsides penalty hurt; however, it didn't hurt as much. Hiram Eugene made a great tackle on Randle El and Washington had to settle for a field goal. Graham Gano, just signed out of the UFL, connected on a 46-yard field goal. We were tied, 10-10, in a pretty evenly matched game with 7:27 left to go in the first half. After a three-and-out, a great 58-yard punt from Lechler set the Redskins up at their own 21. The Redskins didn't get far at all, and some good pressure by defensive linemen Matt Shaughnessy and Gerard Warren forced a punt. Jason Campbell was shaken up after the hit. A couple of stupid calls -- runs up the middle by McFadden and Russell -- brought up a long third down. Nearly intercepted by Reed Doughty on a pass intended for Oakland's Zach Miller, Doughy was flagged for illegal contact. It give the Raiders an automatic first down. On the very next play, an open Miller flat out dropped the ball. It was a good pass by Gradkowski, too, but Miller just let it slip through his hands. Welcome to the show Louis Murphy, as he pulled the Raiders to within two yards of the first down marker at the two-minute warning; however, on the next play, a catch of his was correctly called back on the booth review. The Raiders were forced to punt from midfield. A stupid penalty on the punt called against Hiram Eugene -- not stupid on Eugene's part but rather the referee's -- as Eugene was called for interference when he didn't even interfere. The bench was called for an unsportsmanlike penalty and so the Redskins had it at their own 40. Santana Moss made a 14-yard catch and the Redskins were threatening before the half. Next, a big play to Devin Thomas had Washington really in business. Two plays later, Fred Davis scored his second touchdown of the game to give Washington a 17-10 lead. (Damn, he's on my bench in a fantasy football league.) A holding penalty on the kickoff return set the Raiders up in bad position, and there was just seconds to go before halftime. A couple of runs by Gradkowski picked up some yards, but Oakland needed more with just 16 seconds to go without any timeouts remaining. Almost getting sack, Gradkowski flipped it out to Fargas in the flat and he ran out of bounds with less than 10 seconds to go. An incomplete pass on the next play basically made it impossible for a field goal try; however, Tom Cable decided to go for a field goal without running another play. A 66-yard field goal fell short, and Redskins safety Reed Doughty grabbed it and took off from his own end zone. Mario Henderson grabbed him and slammed Doughty to the ground to end the half. The Redskins had a 17-10 lead. For those of you keeping track, a total of 16 penalty flags were thrown. Yes, this was an ugly game.

After filling in for Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell spent a ton of time on the ground. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

Third Quarter: The Redskins started out with the ball at their own 30, and more importantly the lead. A pass interference committed by Tyvon Branch gave the Redskins a fresh set of downs. Michael Huff, who suffered a stinger in the first half, is still out with that injury and being replaced by Hiram Eugene. A couple of incomplete passes had Washington in a third and long situation. A rare blitz by the defense had Campbell sacked back at his own 26 by rookie safety Mike Mitchell. A punt followed that big play. The return by Higgins set the Raiders up in good field position, at their own 44. After going down with a knee injury just before the first half concluded, Gradkowski was out and unable to return. Yes, that means JaMarcus Russell was in -- and playing quarterback, too. Raiders fans everywhere are holding their respective breaths. Needing three years on third down, Russell called a timeout as Oakland was nearing field goal range. Still, they needed a first down if they even wanted to think about a pretty good try being at Washington's 38. A big play conversion to Higgins was followed up by a 10-yard loss on the sack. Ugh, Russell didn't get rid of the ball. Rookie Brian Orakpo brought him down. More stupid play-calling from Tom Cable, the reverse went nowhere. You've already called that play once, Tom. You can't fool the defense like that. An incomplete pass to Darren McFadden set up a 53-yard field goal try for Janikowski. Missing earlier from 66 yards out, this one was much more manageable and Sebastian knocked it through for his second of the day. The Washington lead was trimmed to 17-13 with just under nine minutes to play in the third quarter. The Raiders brought the heat some more on Campbell on the Redskins' next drive, as Stanford Routt nearly got to Campbell. By the way, Routt replaced by the injured Nnamdi Asomugha. Then, on second down, Matt Shaughnessy brought down Campbell for Oakland's third sack of the game. With the third down play coming up short, a good return by Higgins set up Russell and company in good field position just shy of midfield. A second down play resulting in a first down to Zach Miller had the Raiders in Washington territory; however, on the next play, McFadden slips on a run. He still managed to pick up six yards. A pitch that went backwards forced the Raiders to make a play on third down in order to keep the drive alive. Russell found Murphy and the Raiders moved the chains. It's a step forward and then a step backwards for Russell, apparently, as Andre Carter brings him down for a loss. A false start, which didn't occur under Gradkowski, moved the Raiders back five more yards. Another penalty and then another sack totally demolished the drive for the Raiders, and it became third down with 35 yards to go. Is anyone ready for Charlie Frye yet? The punt by Lechler hopped into the end zone, and Washington began their drive at their own 20 with the third quarter almost over with. Almost off of the field, Rock Cartwright made a play on third down for the Redskins and Washington's drive continued. A couple of runs by Quinton Ganther ended the third quarter. The Redskins had a 17-13 lead over three quarters.

Santana Moss and the Redskins ran away in the fourth quarter. [via cdn0.sbnation.com]

Fourth Quarter: Kicking off the fourth quarter was Washington in Oakland territory looking to add onto their four-point lead. Not surprisingly, the quarter begins with two penalties on the Raiders. Routt was called for pass interference -- which was a bad call as Santana Moss had slipped -- and then Howard was flagged for holding. A couple of plays later, the Oakland defense tried to get off the field with Washington tryign to convert a third down needing three yards. Of course, the Redskins picked up the first down with ease on a pass from Campbell to Malcolm Kelly. A touchdown basically kills any chance the Raiders have of winning this game, especially with Gradkowski shelved. An effective screen to Moss set up a touchdown run by Ganther, a Richmond native scoring the first time in his career, and Washington had taken a 24-13 lead with over 11 minutes to play in regulation. It was clearly a great drive by the Redskins. Chewing six minutes up and going 80 yards on 13 plays, you couldn't have asked for more if you were Jim Zorn. The Raiders had the ball back needing two touchdowns and a two-point conversion. In a shocking turn of events, Russell threw a pass that was picked off by LaRon Landry. Why am I still watching the game at this point? I don't know. Campbell to Moss goes for 30 yards, and the Redskins are a touchdown away from blowout city. Some plays later, Ganther's second touchdown of the day put Washington ahead by 31-13 score. Oh, yes, it was all over by then. Russell marched back out there and was sacked. We were all so very surprised. Luckily for us, Carter totally missed the fumble and Henderson pounced on it to keep possession. Blah, blah, blah, the Raiders had to punt without a first down gained; however, Randle El screwed up the punt return and dropped it. Tony Stewart fell on it and Oakland had the ball at midfield. On the very next play, Russell was sacked yet again and this time it was Lorenzo Alexander. That was the seventh sack of the game with five of them coming against Russell compared to only two when Gradkowski was in the game. God, this game couldn't end any sooner. I'll save the dramatics: Russell was sacked on fourth down. Getting Marcus Mason involved some in the fourth quarter, Washington marched down and kicked a field goal to extend their lead to 34-13. Terribly bad went to even worse as Zach Miller went down with an injury. After another useless drive that went nowhere led by the great JaMarcus Russell, the Redskins got the ball back and ran out the clock. Improving to 4-9 are the Redskins and falling to that same record are the Raiders by a 34-13 score.

Little Billy has some explaining to do. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D -- Obviously, things were going a lot smoother with Bruce Gradkowski back there instead of the totally inept and awful JaMarcus Russell. Still, we have to grade them both. Gradkowski was a little below average and Russell was awful, so I tried to find the middle ground.
Rush Offense: F -- The rushing offense was absolutely dreadful. On 24 carries, a 2.7 average just isn't going to cut it. Justin Fargas led the way with 21 yards and a touchdown, but that stuff is something that should be achieved in just one quarter and not one whole game.
Pass Defense: D+ -- Jason Campbell had almost a field day going 16-for-28 with 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. They brought some heat, so that was a good thing but just about the only good thing.
Rush Defense: C -- It was a very average performance by the rush defense with the Redskins averaging around four yards per carry with a couple of rushing touchdowns.
Special Teams: B- -- Janikowski's only miss came from 66 yards. Shane Lechler averaged almost 52 yards per punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins was okay returning punts while Gary Russell was nothing special returning kicks. Overall, it was pretty decent and I guess I couldn't complain about the way special teams played. The coverage wasn't all that bad itself.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: It's quite simple, really. Once JaMarcus Russell came in for the injured Bruce Gradkowski, it all went to hell. Trailing 17-10 at the half, this game was clearly within reach all the way. Charlie Frye should start next week should Gradkowski be unable to go. Next up, we have the Denver Broncos who are 8-5 and leading the Wild Card race in the AFC. This was really rough in the second half. Enjoy your Sunday evening, guys, and try to put this one behind us.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Mike Holmgren's Greatest Managerial Achievement

John Morgan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:45:48 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Even in red, a Seahawk.

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Mike Holmgren selected Steve Hutchinson 17^th overall in the 2001 NFL Draft, seven picks after selecting Koren Robinson and 23 picks before he selected Ken Lucas. If Robinson could have kept off the bottle, that would have been a hell of a start to a draft. He swapped first round picks with Green Bay for Matt Hasselbeck, drafted Heath Evans, Alex Bannister, and John David Booty's older brother, Josh.

Holmgren built the 2005 offense that weekend. He won the draft. In a draft that produced someday Hall of Fame candidates: Richard Seymour, Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steve Hutchinson, Casey Hampton, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne and Adrian Wilson, Holmgren won. The Panthers picked Dan Morgan, Kris Jenkins and Steve Smith with their first, second and third round selections, but still Holmgren's was better. He built the unit that would lead Seattle to its first and only Super Bowl.

Well, not quite.

The Bears cut Bobby Engram August 29 and Holmgren signed him August 31. Engram signed a two-year contract that paid him less than $500,000 annually. He was the 101^st highest paid receiver in 2001.

Engram received a 60k raise his second season and took on punt return duties to compensate. He averaged 10.7 yards per return and returned one to the house. That was the season Engram became the darling of Football Outsiders metrics. Targets to Engram ranked 26^th in total value and 13^th in value per target. He was ninth and second in 2003.

Holmgren struggled to fill out a roster and his teams were notoriously thin and talent poor defensively, but man did that man know early 21^st-century offense. He squeezed maximum value from slot receivers. Engram wasn't some schlub. He won the first ever Biletnikof trophy in 1994 and still holds most of Penn State's receiving records. Unlike Deon Butler, Engram wasn't a steady four-year starter with time to burn. Joe Paterno suspended him for the entire 1992 season after he was caught burglarizing an apartment and stealing a stereo with teammate Ricky Sayles. All charges were dropped against Engram after police determined Sayles convinced Engram the two were allowed to take the stereo.

The 1996 draft class included Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Terrell Owens, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer and Joe Horn. Engram was the eighth wide receiver selected, behind Johnson, Glenn, Kennison, Harrison, Moulds, Alex Van Dyke, Bryan Still and Muhammad. Engram never broke through with the Bears, struggling to receive for 38 year old Dave Krieg, Eric Kramer, Rick Mirer, Steve Stentstrom, Cade "AIDS" McNown and Shane Matthews, but he was good. Engram ended his career with Chicago with consecutive seasons of over 900 yards receiving before an ACL tear ended his 2000 season.

Holmgren didn't cash in a high pick or find a serviceable safety in the second, the kind of feats any GM can stumble into, he did that thing that separates the best general managers from the merely competent: found freely available talent and turned it into a long term asset.

Engram is a free agent after Kansas City cut him earlier this season. His time with the Chiefs was a tornado-obliterated double wide in a Rolls Royce career. Or maybe an efficient Elise is more Bobby's style. His short stop in the nation's dust mite might and probably will end Engram's fourteen-year career.

But maybe week 17, should the Tennessee Titans be out of it, Seattle can IR Patrick Kerney and sign Engram for one last perfectly-timed, Hasselbeck-to-Engram curl route for eight and the first.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:03:21 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

20 days ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno (27) has his hand examined during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New York Giants in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Happy Wednesday, and welcome to a day-late, dollar-short version of ST&NO. First of all, big up TJ for working hard to bring in his outstanding The Dude Abides... Stats That Don't Lie in a day early. I am a bit healthier on Tuesday as I write this, and I am going to see what I can get cranked out in one day, with moderate sneezing, and a heavy Day 1 of close workload in that pesky day job. I didn't take notes, and I didn't remember to record the Broncos game, so I am without a lot of detail this week, and will need to speak more generally than usual. No time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. So I mentioned that I would be in the Constitution State, and that I'd be playing in a football game with my friend Tony, a diehard Giants fan. The morning game was fun, but I ended up pretty sore, for those who asked. It's tough playing once a year at the most.

As for the night game, well, my mom is not what you'd call a high-tech person. Every time I visit, without fail, there's some junk Coby brand DVD player she wants me to plug into some junk/old TV set without RCA inputs. (You have to drop like $40 on an RF modulator to run through coax, which is about 2.5 times the price of the DVD player.) The "how" of plugging in a DVD player is too daunting for my mom to even give it a try for herself. In her main TV-watching area, she has a 21ish-inch Symphonic brand LCD flat screen that I am sure came from Wal-Mart. Her equipment is garbage, but it works for her I guess. Law & Order SVU looks fine on it. (I don't mean to make fun of my mother; she just doesn't share my priorities, or general attitude toward spending a few extra bucks for quality gear.) It turned out to be moot anyway, because NFL Network is on a premium tier she doesn't subscribe to.

So, what to do? Well, Tony was still around. I asked if he wanted to go to a bar for the game, but he ended up inviting me to his parents' house to watch, which was cool. His dad, also Tony, is also a big Giants fan. I usually watch football alone, because I don't consider it to be a social activity. It's really kind of become my job, and I do best when I can take notes, and pause and rewind, and focus on being analytical. I will talk to my brother Chris sometimes during games, but that's annoying, because my DirecTV feed is always 2-3 seconds behind his, so he knows what happened before I do.

Last Thursday, I sat in the living room with Tony and Tony. Tony Version 2.0's mother, and his girlfriend Ana, were there for most of the first half. I like them both very much, but having women around for a Broncos game was a whole other level of different for me. Like, I don't think it has happened since I was married, and that ended Halloween 2007.

But I digest. (I just had a sandwich from Tomayydo Tomahhdo for lunch. It was excellent, as always.) Back to the lecture at hand. I'm watching this game with two Giants fans and their women, and I got it in my mind that I was going to be really respectful of the Giants one way or the other. It turned out I had to do so in the one way, and not the other, which made me happy. For me, it's easier to be gracious in victory than in defeat.

The Broncos dominated the Giants, and in my opinion, played their best all-around game of the season. Kyle Orton threw one bad ball that he'd like to have back. The Giants got one receiver wide open on a well-conceived rub play where Alphonso Smith and Andre' Goodman ran into each other. The line had those 3 stupid scoring-area false starts, and gave up one sack, on the opening play of the game, and it came from the free rusher on a blitz (which puts it on coverage and Orton). Other than those few plays, and a sense that Correll Buckhalter went down a little too easily a couple of times, I wouldn't change much of anything.

McGeorge asked after the San Diego game if I still stood by my 11-5 prediction. I wanted to see how the Broncos did against New York, but after that, I sure do. The Giants game showed the exact formula that the Broncos can use to beat just about anybody. On defense, it was coverage, pressure, and gap control. On offense, it was sharp routes, great catches and good throws, combined with hard running and excellent run blocking. If the Broncos play like that, they will crush the Raiders and Chiefs, and end up with a minimum of 10 wins. They match up pretty well with both the Colts and the Eagles, too, and I think they can win 1 out of those 2 games. Here is my rationale for saying they match up well.

Indianapolis - The Colts are not a complete team, but nobody really is in the salary cap era. What the Colts are is a team which is constructed around the idea that their QB is going to give them leads, and that their defense will therefore need to protect leads. What does that mean? Well, they value zone coverage and pressure from their DEs. If you make them defend both the pass and the run on any given snap, you can score on them without a lot of trouble. Because the Colts can't stop even an average running game with 7 men, their SS Melvin Bullitt runs down into the box very frequently, and the Colts are therefore susceptible to being beaten over the top on play action, if you can run against them. It was no accident how the Texans got out to a big lead Sunday. They ran and threw, and had the Colts defense off balance early. The Colts rookie CBs couldn't handle Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, and I'm here to tell you, they have nothing for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal either. The Texans can't handle Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and the Broncos can, assuming Ryan Harris is fully back by then. The Broncos can block the Colts DEs, beat their CBs, and move their front seven in the running game.

Remember this point. Just because the Colts are 3^rd in scoring defense (just behind Cincinnati and Dallas, and just ahead of Denver) doesn't mean they have a good defense. They really don't. They have a defense which is equipped to take care of leads by making teams gain yards in smallish chunks, and by sacking QBs with edge pressure. That, combined with Peyton Manning's constant use of the whole play clock leads to low-scoring days by opposing offenses

The trick, of course, is defending the Colts, and that's where the Broncos have historically struggled. This Broncos team, however, is better equipped than any in recent memory to have some success. The Colts do best when they can run the ball, and I like the Broncos' chances to stop their running game with 7 ½ men (meaning Brian Dawkins is starting in a cover-2 shell, but keying run first). By stopping the Colts run, you take away their play action stuff, which makes Peyton Manning beat you with perfect throws, and his receivers beat you with perfect routes. Which, of course, they can do, but it's a harder go than the other way. I like the secondary matchups pretty well for the Broncos, from Champ Bailey against Reggie Wayne, Andre' Goodman against Pierre Garcon, Ty Law or Alphonso Smith against Austin Collie, and either Law or Josh Barrett against Dallas Clark. The Clark matchup is key against the Colts, and I like Law and Barrett, depending on down and distance, better than anybody else's sub-package guys in the NFL for covering a big-time TE.

I'm not saying the game will be a runaway Broncos win, just that I can easily make a case for them TO win, and that I think they CAN win. What do you think?

Philadelphia - This is a game the Broncos SHOULD win. The Eagles are a lot like the Giants, from both schematic and personnel perspectives. From the angle of attacking Philly's defense, you can outside zone them to death, like the Broncos did so well against the Giants. That's because their LBs tend to be bigger, slower guys who struggle a bit to cover the lateral width of the field. Will Witherspoon is an exception to that archetype, but Chris Gocong, Joe Mays, and Moise Fokou are vertical players.

You have to block the Eagles' blitz packages, and it really helps to stay on schedule against them. That's a bit easier than it is against a Baltimore or Pittsburgh, because you can run the ball. (They're currently ranked 8^th against the run, but trust me, you can gash them if you try a little.) In the passing game, you'd like to exploit Asante Samuel, who bites on a ton of double moves. Yes, he's a ball-hawk, but he doesn't shut anybody down. He can catch extremely well, and he's an excellent tackler, but he's just an okay coverage player. Sheldon Brown is kind of the opposite; better in coverage, but lesser as a ball-hawk and tackler. Where you can kill the Eagles is from the slot, and with TEs, especially if you block their blitz packages.

Offensively, the Eagles are a big-play offense, and the Broncos have been as good as anybody in the NFL at limiting big plays. Brent Celek got paid Tuesday, and he deserved it. He's a very good receiving TE. The Eagles don't have a big, physical #1 type WR, but they have two speedsters outside with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The guy I think is dangerous is Jason Avant, who is much stronger and more physical than the average slot receiver, and he's a tough matchup for the average thin/quick nickel CB. Of course, Alphonso Smith and Ty Law are both thicker/stronger players, so it's less of an issue. I don't fear the Eagles running game, because if you stop it early, they quit going to it.

This game can go either way, obviously, but the Broncos are well-equipped to get a good road win in Philadelphia. I feel pretty good about both games, actually. So, yeah. I still like the 11-5 prediction.

2. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. Richard Seymour is still playing at a high level in Oakland, despite his fairly modest statistics this season. I watched him defeat the left side of the Cowboys offensive line several times on Thanksgiving Day. Seymour's contract is up after this season, and you have to think he'd rather not re-up with the Raiders. Of course, given the price Al Davis paid, he probably gets franchised. If he somehow isn't, I'd sure like to see him in Denver. Forget all this nonsense about building exclusively through the draft; as we've all hopefully realized this season, a team should take any approach available to it, in order to acquire the most good players possible.

b. Anthony Spencer had the best game I have ever seen him have for the Cowboys. Some Dallas fans took exception with my calling Spencer "just a guy" in Week 3, and if he keeps playing like he did last Thursday, I'll have to rethink my evaluation.

c. I have been a fan of the Cowboys' passing scheme for several years now, going back to the end of the Parcells regime. In 2007, when I started to make it my business to watch teams other than the Broncos closely, Jason Garrett was the young, hot name as the Offensive Coordinator, and Jerry Jones paid him a lot of money not to leave for jobs in Baltimore and Atlanta after the 2007 season.

When Tony Sparano left to become the Dolphins Head Coach last season, it came to light that Garrett hadn't been the primary playcaller in 2007, and that he'd be doing it for the first time in 2008 with Sparano's departure. The Cowboys took a noticeable step back last season, and some of the bloom came off the Garrett rose, even as he interviewed for Head Coaching jobs with the Broncos, Lions, and Rams, and seemed to initially be the favorite for the Rams job. There was speculation that Jones would love to be out from under Garrett's $3-million contract.

Well, the point of the history lesson is that the scheme and execution look much better in Dallas lately than they have since Sparano left. I don't know if this makes Garrett a Head Coach, but it makes him a guy who appears to have grown into his job. The Cowboys' passing scheme is very vertical, and it does a good job of getting the ball in the hands of its playmakers. Some will say they don't get Roy Williams involved enough, but those people believe more in Williams than I do. I think he is what he looks like; a lazy player, who has below average hands, lacks quickness out of his breaks, and rounds off his routes. If there's no salary cap for the Cowboys to take a prorated hit against, I guarantee that he gets released in the offseason, and has to beg for a 1 year, $1-million contract to compete for a backup role somewhere.

d. Charles Woodson is playing the best football of his career right now, which I have mentioned several times this season. He had a big stat game Thursday on national TV, and now everybody is on the bandwagon with me. I actually thought it may have only been the 3rd- or 4th-best game I have seen him play this season. To me, he's the no-question Defensive Player of the Year so far.

e. The Packers defense has really gotten their act together lately, and are a big key to the push they seem to be making. I am pretty comfortable projecting that the Packers will be in the postseason as a Wild Card at this point.

f. Jim Leonhard of the Jets is a tremendously underrated player, and I left him out of my Good AFC Safeties list last week, kind of by accident. He is always around the football, and I've been a big fan of his game going all the way back to his days at Wisconsin. The Broncos offered him more money than the Jets this offseason, but he chose to follow Rex Ryan. It seems like it was a good decision for him, anyway.

g. I watched the Short Cut of the Jets-Panthers game, and I agree with Doug Lee that Mark Sanchez's 13-of-17 stat line was very misleading. He had happy feet, and he looked really confused a lot of the time.

h. I've seen a few people starting to use the line which goes "If Alex Smith plays like he did Sunday, the Niners might not replace him in the draft." Really, he has played pretty well for six games, better than ever before in his career. I think the decision would already be made, if it was up to me. You have a guy who is proving he can play, and he's improving even as teams get some film on him. That rollout and throw to Frank Gore for the second TD was a thing of beauty, as Smith waited till the last possible second, and threw the ball to the only spot he could put it. I'd be looking to improve the offensive line, and counting on having a Top-10 offense next season, with Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. Joe Staley is a solid LT when he's healthy, but General Manager Scot McCloughan really would do well to replace the other 4 starters up front. Sunday's game was the first time in 18 games that the 49ers didn't give up a single sack.

i. I tend to like a lot of University of Florida guys, but Ray McDonald is really coming into his own in a specialist role for the 49ers. He looked unblockable at times Sunday. McDonald usually plays in passing situations at DE. According to ESPN, he didn't record a tackle, but he did recover a fumble. I'm telling you, though, he was defeating some blocks Sunday, and bringing a lot of pressure.

3. There are two kinds of name-droppers, and I am the second kind. It's not like I am extremely famous (yet) with my writing for this site, but when you think about it, I'm known by more people than probably 98% of the population. I'm definitely more famous than any of my friends and family, and in the course of telling my stories, I find it adds rhetorical flourish to mention them sometimes, and it's also fun to share my little bit of light with them. I tell people, if they want to make ST&NO, they should do something interesting with me.

The first kind of name-dropper is the one who tries to stand in other people's light. Our dear friend Jay Glazer is the quintessential example of this kind. Check this douchebaggery, from Tuesday night:

First of all, it's Too $hort, not two-short. And, you know what? That's all I have on that topic. I like making fun of Glazer, but whatever, you know? Fish in a barrel.

I am now going to name-drop a person who is as famous as I am. I met Doug Lee for lunch in Manhattan on Saturday. Yes, THE Doug Lee. Friggin Horse Tracks Doug Lee, people! Doug is a cool guy, and he suggested a great burger spot on the Upper East Side.

The lunch conversation was very interesting, the food was terrific, and it was great to meet Doug, but the hijinks ensued when I left to get back on the road back to Cleveland. I had parked on E 71st Street between 1st and 2nd Avenue (for 14 bucks for 2 1/2 hours.) I came out heading south on 2nd Ave, thinking my GPS would send me back to the FDR, and the Triboro bridge, back up to catch the George Washington Bridge.

Well, it took about 2 minutes for my boy Tom Tom to reacquire a signal, and by then I had gone south 10-15 blocks on 2nd. Tom Tom then wanted me to go to the Lincoln Tunnel, the entrance for which is in the 30s, off 9th Avenue, so significantly south and west of where I started out. It's an unquestionably stupid way to go, driving over the river and through the woods in Manhattan, even on a Saturday afternoon, especially considering the Lincoln Tunnel spits you out on the New Jersey Turnpike, heading toward the world-renowned hell-hole of Newark.. (Home of wred-mann.)

Where's the payoff pitch? Here it goes. I was sitting at a traffic light at E 43rd St and 2nd Avenue, and this Puerto Rican guy (with a flag on his shirt, incidentally), knocked on my window. I looked at him like, WTF? But I lowered the window, and he told my right rear tire area looked like it was on fire, and was smoking like crazy. A woman walking behind him told me the same thing, so I pulled over on 43rd and troubleshot it with my dad on the phone for awhile, before deducing that the emergency brake had probably stayed clamped to the rotor, and was causing sparks and smoke. I watched it, with my mirror pointed down, but eventually I was comfortable enough to go through the tunnel, and eventually through Newark, and back to I-80. The moral of the story is if somebody knocks on your window, he may be trying to be helpful, so you shouldn't look cross-eyed at him, as a matter of instinct. Also, sometimes, Tom Tom messing up is a blessing in disguise. If I had gone FDR to the Triboro, to the GW, It would have been all highway, with nobody walking down the sidewalk to knock.

4. One of the hazards of relying on "insiders" for information is that it comes with agendas and spin. Pro Football Weekly is a (Bill Williamson Memorial) decent site, but they rely tremendously on anonymous insider commentary. They've been talking to somebody who seems incentivized to cast Raheem Morris as woefully inept. Check this out:

Talk of the Buccaneers giving head coach Raheem Morris another offseason to turn the team around is fading fast, as his latest bold decision was another admission of failure in a season marked with disappointment. Morris seized defensive coordinator duties from Jim Bates on Nov. 24 and demoted Bates to what is being described as an advisory role, although it's not clear just what kind of involvement or authority, if any, Bates will have for the rest of his time with the organization.

Morris made a couple of mistakes in hiring his staff, but they were the kind of mistakes a first-timer can make, especially one who gets a Head Coaching job a month after most of the movement was over. There's this persistent meme that relieving Jeff Jagodzinski and Jim Bates of their duties somehow shows Morris to be weak. I say it's the other way around. He realized that he had made mistakes, and he let sunk costs be sunk costs, and made the moves that he felt gave his team the best chance to win.

Morris's team is 1-10, but the Bucs have improved as the season has gone on, and it would be asinine to fire him after a season which was a declared rebuilding year, where a coach who they knew was probably hired a year too early learned the ropes.

There are a lot of haters in the world, and I relate pretty closely to Morris. I have always been an overachiever, who has consistently beaten out older, more experienced professional competition for promotions and recognition. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I have a pretty good deal of talent, and a strong work ethic. The majority of my critics have only been moderately talented people, with medium work ethics. Let's face it, there are a lot of people in the center of the bell curve. I am in the center of the bell curve in certain ways, and so is everybody. I am not, though, as an accountant, and Raheem Morris is not as a football coach.

So, some 25-year career assistant who has been hired and fired 15 times is jealous of Morris and his early success. He spouts off to Dan Parr at PFW, and Parr writes that article above. The same thing was going on with Josh McDaniels, with the questioning of his ability, and Josh only got clear of it by winning. Morris will, too.

Even a guy like Marshall Faulk was hating on Morris on Sunday morning, intimating that all the young coach knew how to call was Tampa-2. Well, for 7 end-of-game goal-to-go plays, he called press man-to-man, and his guys covered well. On 4th down, Roddy White made a great play, and won the game for the Falcons. Really, if Connor Barth had hit the 51-yard field goal he attempted, they would have only been playing for a tie. I saw somewhere Morris was criticized for kicking the field goal rather than punting. Really? The point is don't listen to these idiots. I'd be very surprised if the Glazer family is.

5. I have a couple of quick college thoughts.

a. The Head Coaching job at Notre Dame is not a good one. I could usually take or leave SI.com's Stewart Mandel, but he has it exactly right. The expectations there are entirely unreasonable, given the constraints they face. If I were Cincinnati's Brian Kelly, there is no way in hell I'd take that job. At Cincinnati, he has a program whose credibility is on the rise, and who will soon be taken more seriously in the National Championship picture. At Notre Dame, there's just faded mystique.

b. I am a Florida fan, and I think it is unlikely that Tim Tebow wins the Heisman Trophy. I am actually pretty excited for the prospect of the lesser Colt McCoy winning, because history will be repeating itself. I am projecting a win against Alabama, and a Texas win against Nebraska, neither of which is a foregone conclusion, but let's say it happens like that. Tebow will lead Florida into a National Championship game against a guy he lost the Heisman to. I would be really bullish for Florida's 3rd title in 4 years, even more than I already am.

c. Speaking of the Heisman, I think it's ridiculous how it's turned into nothing more than a tool for media conjecture. Frankly, it follows along the same line of thinking that dominates professional football writing, that all of the best players are QBs and RBs, joined by the occasional WR. It's a total farce.

That's all I have this week. I will be back next Tuesday for more of a full-figured ST&NO. Have a great week, and Go Broncos!

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 1

John Morgan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 23:47:55 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Wheeler - AP

Every plan has risk. Investing in Matt Hasselbeck is the quickest path towards competing again. It also risks the longest, most painful path towards competing again.

Browse more photos »

Last post for a few days. Enjoy the holiday if you celebrate. I know I can't count my blessings with every bone in a newborn baby's body.

This is the first in a multipart series examining how Seattle can determine its future by determining its quarterback of the future. The second part should be up on black Friday.

The Matt Hasselbeck Plan

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, Matt Hasselbeck started the season 25 of 36 for 279 yards. He wasn't well ahead or living on RAC. He wasn't Admiral Checkdown commanding the Y-wings to martyr themselves against the turrets of the opposing defense's Death Star. Hasselbeck was a capable quarterback, leading his team back from his own blunders to a shutout slaying of the St. Louis Rams.

Then Hasselbeck dropped his deflector shields and threw himself bodily down the 49ers exhaust shaft and towards the team's reactor core. He was stopped short by Patrick Willis' superlaser elbow smash.

Everything that has followed has sucked. Broken down Hasselbeck is not much more valuable than General Sack-Himself, Seneca Wallace. Hasselbeck has had broken ribs, and still suffers from a throwing-shoulder injury of unknown origin. The injuries, we must conclude, have taken their toll.

When Shaun Alexander slowed, his decline was inexorable. The smartest, most skilled back in the world can not overcome zero burst and swampfooted cutting ability. Hasselbeck and his fans are enduring a more complicated but no less painful decline. Unlike Alexander, Hasselbeck is not cooked, done, debilitated and embarrassing himself.

Matt Hasselbeck could recover and be a good quarterback again. His marginal arm strength is likely to decline, but not so badly he can no longer make his bread and butter mid-range throws. Hasselbeck can not do that today, but when he's healthy, he can.

In this plan, Seattle accepts what it has and does not have at quarterback. It sticks with Hasselbeck and attempts to build itself around what he can do. It improves the line and run game to keep Hasselbeck healthy and keep Hasselbeck viable when he is inevitably injured. Tim Ruskell continues to build the defense towards elite.

The plan might be enacted thus:

Rework and extend Hasselbeck's contract in the offseason. This will free immediate cap dollars and preempt a quarterback controversy.

Cut Patrick Kerney and Walter Jones.

Be players in free agency and in the trade market. Target undervalued backs from teams with depth, and attempt to buy elite free agents like Julius Peppers, Elvis Dumervil, Carlos Rogers and Richard Seymour. Seattle is no longer an attractive destination for players that want to win, but Paul Allen's money is no less green.

Approach the draft from a best talent available standpoint, but understand the need for talent at offensive line, running back and potentially wide receiver.

Tap Mike Teel as the long term replacement, or acquire young talent to contest him for the position.

How it works: Hasselbeck regains arm strength as his health improves, but, more importantly, Hasselbeck the signal caller comes to fore as Hasselbeck the quarterback recedes. The team builds around Hasselbeck's intelligence at the position and compensates for his deteriorating tools.

The Seahawks continue to redefine themselves as a defense-minded team. It doesn't panic and pour resources into the offense, attempting to remake an elite offense around a quarterback not capable of helming such an attack, but buttresses the offense and improves and stabilizes the offensive line. The Seahawks young talent gels, perhaps pushed over the top by a Peppers, Berry or Dunlap, and begins a run of dominance over a still very weak NFC West. If things break right, one February night in the coming decade, Robert dies of joy. We spread his ashes accross Qwest hiding our barely stifled smiles.

How it fails: Hasselbeck is never fully free of routine football abuse and therefore never free of debilitating injuries. The team invests in Matt Hasselbeck's skills and leadership and get Trent Green, Jake Delhomme, Mark Brunell, etc: A once very good quarterback at his body's end. The discord on offense prevents major gains by a talented defense, or, what gains are made, are wasted because of the Seahawks untenably bad offense.

Having invested in Hasselbeck and otherwise ignored the quarterback position, the team is stuck between stations, improving on defense as the offense crumbles--seasons away from any chance of renewal. Seattle spends its coming seasons betwixt good and bad, often settling into mediocre, but never a true contender. The upshot: The Seahawks can't collapse enough to rebuild.

Primer: Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)

Kirkendall — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:10:39 -0000

Game: Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)
Series Leader: Raiders, 17-8
Streak: Raiders have won three of the past four
Coaches vs. Opponent: Lewis: 1-1. Cable: 0-0
Broadcast: CBS (4:15 PM ET): Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots. SIRIUS: 127 (Cin.), 130 (Oak.). XM: 104 (Cin.).
SB Nation: Silver and Black Pride
NFL.com: Game Center
Weather: Partly cloudy with a high 59 and light winds. [Weather.com]
Uniform: White
Television Coverage: Most of Ohio, West Virginia, northern Kentucky and areas around Oakland and into Nevada. [506]

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 4-0 on the road in 2009 and looks to win the fifth consecutive road game for the first time in franchise history.
Under Marvin Lewis, when a running back rushes 25 times or more, the Bengals are 26-1.
Carson Palmer needs four touchdown passes to reach 125 in his career -- third Bengals player in franchise history to achieve that milestone.
In his past three games, Palmer has thrown for six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Cedric Benson needs 141 yards rushing for his first 1,000-yard season.
When rushing 20 times or more in a game, Benson averages 106.2 yards rushing in those games -- teams are 11-1-1.
Frostee Rucker recorded his first career interception last week.
Jonathan Fanene has a career-high five quarterback sacks in 2009; including a career-best two last week.
Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall have combined for 25 passes defensed this season.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are 8-0 all-time against the Bengals in games played in Oakland since October 27, 1968.
Quarterback JaMarcus Russell needs 137 yards passing to reach 4,000 yards in his career.
Running back Michael Bush posted his first 100-yard rushing game last week and second of his career.
Justin Fargas has a career 6.2 yards-per-rush average against the Bengals (15 attempts, 93 yards).
Fargas looks to record a touchdown in his third straight game.
Tight End Zach Miller ranks sixth in franchise history among Tight Ends with 129 receptions and 1,652 yards receiving.
Defense has 10 sacks in the past four games.
Since 2008, cornerback Chris Johnson leads the team with six interceptions and looks to record a pick in his third straight game.
Defensive Ends Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis have a combined 124 career quarterback sacks.
Rookie defensive end Matt Shaughnessy looks to record a sack in his third straight game.

TEAM RANKINGS

Offense	Bengals	Raiders
Total	334.2 (19th)	222.0 (31st)
Scoring	22.0 (17th)	9.8 (31st)
Third Downs	41% (15th)	27% (29th)
Rushing	122.3 (11th)	103.4 (20th)
Rushing TDs	7 (t-15th)	5 (t-23rd)
Passing	211.9 (19th)	118.6 (31st)
Passing TDs	14 (t-12th)	2 (32nd)
Sacks Allowed	14 (6th)	27 (t-26th)
20-yard Passes	24 (t-16th)	11 (t-31st)

Defense	Bengals	Raiders
Total	314.4 (11th)	367.1 (24th)
Scoring	16.3 (2nd)	24.1 (25th)
3rd Downs Allowed	34% (7th)	34% (5th)
Rushing	83.4 (2nd)	155.6 (29th)
Rushing TDs	4 (t-5th)	14 (t-31st)
Passing	231.0 (21st)	211.6 (14th)
Passing TDs	10 (t-10th)	8 (t-4th)
Sacks	25 (t-4th)	19 (t-17th)
QB Rating	77.9 (9th)	83.1 (16th)
20-Yard Passes Allowed	28 (t-21st)	28 (t-21st)
Interceptions	11 (t-6th)	6 (t-26th)

Special Teams	Bengals	Raiders
Kickoff Return	22.5 (19th)	18.7 (32nd)
Punt Return	11.7 (5th)	2.6 (32nd)
Punting (Net)	37.3 (t-20th)	44.8 (1st)
Punts Inside the 20	14 (t-18th)	19 (t-5th)

2009 STATISTICAL INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Carson Palmer	Stat	Ranking
Quarterback Rating	88.1	15th
Yards Passing	2,010	16th
Touchdowns	14	t-10th
First Downs	103	14th
Average Yards/Att	6.9	18th
Completions	178	t-14th
Interceptions	7	t-14th
Times Sacked	14	10th

Cedric Benson	Stat	Ranking
Yards Rushing	859	6th
Attempts / Game	22.8	1st
Touchdowns	6	t-8th
First Downs	36	t-6th

Chad Ochocinco	Stat	Ranking
Receptions	46	t-17th
Yards Receiving	668	t-11th
Touchdowns	5	t-12th
20-yard receptions	10	t-7th
First Downs	35	t-8th

CAREER AGAINST THE OAKLAND RAIDERS

Carson Palmer

Date	Result	Comp	Att	Yards	TDs	INTs
12.10.2006	W, 27-10	20	28	297	2	3

Chad Johnson

Date	Rec	Yards	TDs
12.10.2006	5	101	0
9.14.2003	8	131	0

Laveranues Coles

Date	Rec	Yards	TDs
10.19.2008	4	51	0
12.31.2006	2	24	0
12.11.2005	3	30	0
12.2.2002	10	158	0
1.6.2002	5	111	1
12.10.2000	1	16	0

Cedric Benson

Date	Rush	Yards	TDs
11.11.2007	28	72	1

Larry Johnson

Date	Rush	Yards	TDs
11.30.2008	24	92	1
9.14.2008	12	22	0
10.21.2007	24	112	1
12.23.2006	31	135	1
11.19.2006	31	154	2
11.6.2005	22	107	2
9.18.2005	9	41	1
12.25.2004	25	79	2
12.5.2004	20	118	1

Silly untruths about the 2009 Patriots at the mid-season point

BigBlueShoe — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:12:04 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

about 1 month ago: New England Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo (51) celebrates a stop as Miami Dolphins center Jake Grove (64) and quarterback Chad Henne look on during the fourth quarter of New England's 27-17 win in an NFL football game in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Browse more photos »

Yesterday, we had the unthruths about the 2009 Colts. Now, we close out with untruths about the 2009 Patriots.

False

Tom Brady will take three years to fully recover from his injury, which means that he won't be "great" for a while now.

True

This year, Brady is completing 65% of his passes for 2364 yards (third best in AFC) and has 16 TDs to 5 INTS (same TD to INT ratio as Peyton Manning). Early this season, Brady did look "out of sync" with his receivers, and the Patriots are lucky they did not lose their first game of the year to the Buffalo Bills. However, Brady has recovered his form and is playing very well. In fact, it is shaping up to be one of his best statistical seasons ever.

Much of the "it will take three years" talk comes from using Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer as an example. Palmer suffered a somewhat equally horrible knee injury to Brady's in 2006, and it is only now that Palmer looks to have returned to form. This example is very misleading and flawed though. Palmer was "ready" to play the next season after his injury, but the Bengals roster in 2007 was not the Patriots roster in 2009. Flaws in the Cincy roster, bad coaching, and poor ownership factored more into the Bengals struggling since their last playoff appearance; not Palmer's injury.

False

The Patriots have lost too many important players to be a contender anymore.

True

Gone are Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, and Richard Seymour. These players were the foundation of three championships. However, new players like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather have the Patriots allowing only 14.5 ppg (#2 behind the Colts). So, statistically, this is one of the better defense the Patriots have ever had. When you have Tom Brady, and you give him a defense that is only allowing roughly 2 TDs a game, you ARE a contender.

False

The Patriots basically have only two receiving weapons on offense: Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Double those two guys and you should be able to shut down this offense.

True

Um, if things were that easy, the Patriots would be 0-8 now. They aren't. When teams double those two WRs, tight end Benjamin Watson has stepped up and made some big plays. He is on his way to a career year, currently with 19 receptions for 271 yards and 4 TDs.

Like with all great teams, lots of silly, incorrect information gets thrown out there and just accepted as fact (like when people say Peyton Manning "struggles" against 3-4 defenses). When morons spew this kind of lazy garbage, it is up to us bloggers to kick them in the nuts, laugh in their face, and yell "WRONG!"

Preview Week Nine: Patriots at Colts

BigBlueShoe — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:00:33 -0000

Now that I own this blog, and all the souls of the people currently reading it (which kind of makes me sound like the Freddy Krueger of sports bloggers), I'll dump on you what I dump on my own readers every Thursday during the NFL season: My game previews.

Welcome to primetime, b*tch!

If you don't get the Freddy Krueger reference, just keep your mouth shut or you will make MaPatsFan and I feel very old.

For this preview, I am required to (ugh!) do it from the POV of a Patriots fan, which basically means I cannot insert snide comments about Bill Belichick's sleep-inducing press conferences, or state that players "suck" just because I don't like them. For me, this takes all the fun out of writing a preview. I mean, what good is a preview if I can't make YET ANOTHER joke about Spygate, the Pats choking in the Super Bowl, and the laugh-rot-comedy-musical-review that is a Bill Belichick's post-game handshakes, which for Belichick seem less about sports congeniality and more akin to getting water boarded in a tank of gasoline.

Someone is NOT enjoying this handshake

Nevertheless, I will saunter forth with this preview, which (both on paper and seemingly in practice) might pit the two best teams in the NFL against each other this Sunday.

While the surprising Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints are getting much of the "WOW!" headlines, the bigger story is the play of the New England Patriots. Gone from last year's defense, which ranked #8 in scoring at 19 points per game, are Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Rodney Harrison. More so than Tom Brady, the foundation of three championships was built on defensive players, who always had a knack for coming up HUGE in big games (don't... think about... that damned Rhodes fumble...). This year, with all those players gone, with Adalius Thomas seemingly declining before our eyes, the Patriots sport the #2 scoring defense in the league, giving up 14 points per game.

They are second only to the Colts, who give up 13 points per game.

Again, Denver and New Orleans are getting the headlines for defense, but the real story (aka, the one more interesting to people who actually know football) is the play of the Pats and Colts defenses. No one expected these two teams to have such outstanding defenses in 2009. With Indy losing longtime head coach Tony Dungy to retirement and letting Ron Meeks go (rather unceremoniously, I might add), the feeling from many was Indy's defense would regress even further from the mess it was last season.

Not so.

The Colts and the Pats continue to prove that excellent pass defense, coupled with smart pressure packages that maximize the risk of the opponent making a mistake, are the best practices to stopping NFL offenses.

So, for me, this game is actually less about the legendary quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Tom Brady... perhaps you've heard of them) and more about the defenses for the Pats and Colts.

Patriots Defense

For Peyton Manning, players like Vrabel, Brushi, and Harrison used to give him fits. No defense bothered Peyton like the Patriots defenses from 2001-2004. Now, with those players gone, can new faces like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather provide equal frustration to "Perfect Peyton"? Currently, Peyton is well on his way to winning his fourth NFL MVP, a feat no player has ever done. A "bad" day for Peyton now is "only" throwing for 350 yards, completing 65% of his passes, and no turnovers.

Again, that's "bad."

If the Patriots want to have any hope of winning this game, they must attack and frustrate Peyton. They must confuse, disguise, and rattle him. That is, by no means, an easy feat. In fact, no team has really been able to "rattle" Peyton since, maybe, the 2004 Patriots in the playoffs.

Colts Defense

For the Colts defense, they hired longtime Brady nemesis Larry Coyer as their defensive coordinator. Pats fans remember coyer as the "real" mastermind behind the Denver Broncos defense from 2002-2006. Coyer coached their defense during Denver's playoff win over the Pats in 2005, which saw Tom Brady throw an INT for a TD. From 2002-2004, Coyer was instrumental in keeping the "Holy Trinity" of the AFC intact (Patriots would beat the Colts, Broncos would beat the Patriots, Colts would beat the Broncos).

Now, Coyer is in Indy, and he has their defense playing as well as it has ever played. Dwight Freeney will own an NFL record if he sacks Brady this weekend, which would give him a sack in ten straight NFL games (going back to last year). Though Indy's secondary is beat up, losing longtime Patriots boogeymen Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson for the season, the Colts do sport some impressive safeties with Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt. Colts rookie corner Jerraud Powers is a legit Rookie of the Year candidate, and Jacob Lacey (another rookie) has looked impressive as well. Despite their youth, this group has indeed been tested against passing attack from the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans. They have passed with flying colors.

Final Pontification from Resident Blogging A-hole

Like all great Patriots v. Colts games, this one will likely go down to the wire. And while the QBs will likely get all the jeers and glory, it will be the defenses of these two NFL giants that will decide the game. While neither team runs the ball well (numbers-wise), both defense want to opponents' QB to throw more than they want to. The pass defenses for both clubs are their strengths. Look for both to find ways to pressure the QBs and force them into short-field mistakes.

Likely, the team with the fewest mistakes will win.

BigBlueShoe invades your mind and scrambles your brains with all things Patriots v. Colts

BigBlueShoe — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:52 -0000

Manning v. Brady... on a more "local" level.

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Hiya Patriots fans! Once again, we are in November. Once again, we have the Patriots v. the Colts. Once again, your headmaster has been ~~stupid~~ gracious enough to hand me the keys to your blog. Once again, I plan to poop on your living room carpet, leave the toilet seat down, and drink all your booze before I leave... so to speak.

For roughly seven years, we fans were blessed to have one of the best rivalries in the history of pro football played out annually even though the two teams in this rivalry did not reside in the same division. This year, the rivalry is still the same. The key ingredients are still simmering. However, what is a bit different is the flavoring.

Gone are Tedy Brushi, Marvin Harrison, Richard Seymour, Bob Sanders, Mike Vrabel, Marlin Jackson, Rodney Harrison, and Tony Dungy. These men helped build this rivalry up into something unique and special. Cowboys v. 49ers never reached our peak, nor did Giants v. 49ers. Patriots v. Colts is a special grudge match that, in many ways, is the envy of rivals who play each other twice a year. While Giants fans, Cowboys fans, and Eagles fans all love to boast about the NFC East rivalries, I can say with absolute confidence that they people have no idea what rivalry REALLY is until they experience Patriots v. Colts.

This rivalry has produced some of the greatest game ever in NFL history, be they playoff or regular season. No offense to the NFC East, but their games do not come close in terms of magnitude, awe, and sheer football OMFG-did-you-see-that-play!-ness.

So, yeah, Patriots v. Colts is a big deal. Anyone who dismisses it is a hater of football, or what is sometimes referred to as a "Jets fan" (calm down Jets fans, it's a joke; here's another beer you can throw at a toddler's head). Like all games going back in this rivalry, I hope this one is an all-timer as well. Hope you enjoy my "takeover" of Pats Pulpit for the next two days. Please comment to your heart's content.

Armaggedon 2009 (or, the War of 18 and 12) : Just how evenly matched are the Patriots and Colts

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:16:43 -0000

More photos » by AJ Mast - AP

about 1 month ago: Indianapolis Colts linebacker Clint Session runs the ball after intercepting a pass from Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. The Colts won 20-17. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

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For all the hoopla the New Orleans Saints are getting (and rightly so) for their 8-0 start, the reality is that, statistically, the Patriots and the Colts are more impressive. And while it is no en vogue for people like Buccaneers coach Raheem Morris to proclaim "Statistics are for losers," the reality is stats tell us an awful lot about how good a team will likely be moving forward.

Small side note: Anyone else find it both pathetically and ironically funny that Morris, who is 1-7 as a head coach, would proclaim that "statistics are for losers." Speaking of losers, Morris will be lucky if he keeps his job at the end of this season.

The Saints sport the league's best offense, averaging nearly 38 points per game, which is, of course, INSANE! However, their defense is surrendering 21 points per game, ranking them 19th in the league. But while the Saints appear free-wheelin' and high-flyin', the Patriots and Colts seem much more balanced as football teams and, therefore, much more dangerous.

New England sports the #2 scoring defense in football, surrendering 14 points a game. Their offense scores 28 points per game (#3 in the league). Indy trots out the #1 scoring defense, giving up just 13 points per game, and an offense that scores 27 points per game (#6 in the league).

If we Colts fans know anything it's that great offense with mediocre-to-bad defense can only take you so far in this league. Eventually, you will run into a team that will stall your offense. When that happens, your defense must have the talent and the coaching to win the game for your team. For the Pats and Colts, they seem to have the kind of defensive talent to stop opposing teams, which is incredible considering the Pats are without Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, and Richard Seymour this year. Meanwhile, the Colts are without Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, Ed Johnson, and Tyjuan Hagler. Yet, they still shut people down.

Again, balance on offense and defense can make a football team dangerous, and this Sunday two very dangerous teams will face off in what hopefully will be a great game.

For more, check out Marima's FanShot.