SB Nation - Ty Warren

New York Jets Run Offense vs. New England Patriots Run Defense

John B — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:23:54 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

The Pats give up 110 yards per game on the ground, which is in the middle of the pack. Two excellent run defenders on the line, Jarvis Green and Ty Warren are nursing injuries and are not certain to play. Don't be fooled, though. This is going to be a tough matchup. The Jets have to figure out how to handle Vince Wilfork. Wilfork has been almost impossible to block this year. Almost every week in this space, you see me talk about how important it will be for Nick Mangold to handle the other team's nose tackle. This week it's more pronounced than usual. Wilfork isn't a great pass rusher, but he can blow up opposing run games.

The Jets also need to focus their blocking schemes on Jerrod Mayo, the second year linebacker with 39 tackles in 6 games. He missed the first contest. New England has other quality run defenders at the linebacker position. Pierre Woods, a rotational player who had a big game in last year's visit to Foxborough, is one of them. So is Adalius Thomas. Woods could see a lot of time depending on Tully Banta-Cain's injury status. Inside linebackers Gary Guyton and Eric Alexander are both nursing injuries that could hamper their effectiveness and leave a lot on veteran Junior Seau. This might be something the Jets can exploit if Mangold can hold Wilfork in check.

New England's secondary is very good in run support. Shawn Springs' coverage skills are in decline, but he's been effective against the run. So has Leigh Bodden, New England's other corner and safeties Brandon Merriweather and Brandon McGowan. This is a game where Leon Washington's ability to make people miss may be missed.

We'll see eight men in the box a lot with the rookie quarterback as we do every week. If that doesn't work, we may see nine to try and force Mark Sanchez to win the game like we did in Week 2. The offensive line has a tough task winning these matchups.

New York Jets Pass Offense vs. New England Patriots Pass Defense

John B — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:55:39 -0000

More photos » by Peter Morgan - AP

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The Patriots have offered a number of different defensive looks the past few weeks. Watching the game against the Dolphins two weeks ago, I noticed a subtle move. Vince Wilfork lined up at right end in the 3-4 trying to create a mismatch against the left side of Miami's line. Last week against the Colts New England operated a lot out of the 4-3 with Ty Warren out of the lineup and Derrick Burgess and Tully Banta-Cain at end. Warren is fighting an ankle injury. He's questionable. Whether he starts or not, I think we'll see a few wrinkles from Bill Belichick, changing up the looks on Mark Sanchez.

I would guess we could see Wilfork at end a few times trying to use his power against D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Alan Faneca, who may struggle to contain him. If the left side gets tied up, it will free up edge rushers, such as New England's best, Tully-Banta Cain (3 sacks). Banta-Cain is questionable with a rib injury. I could see Belichick utilizing a look like this to use Rex Ryan's overload blitzes against him. With Warren banged up and Jarvis Green also nursing an injury, we'll see a lot of Mike Wright on the line. Wright has been effective as a pass rusher.

I think the Jets should max protect to keep Sanchez standing. The Pats are probably going to attack him. They've seen on film the rookie mistakes he's made and will try to force more. I'm also expecting eight in the box. Belichick teams try to take away what you do best. For the Jets, owners of the league's top rushing attack, that's run the football. Patrick Chung has also been an effective blitzer from the safety spot.

If the Jets can keep Sanchez standing, they have some decent matchups. Braylon Edwards is a tough matchup for Leigh Bodden. He might need help in the form of Brandon Merriweather and other safeties, which will leave Jerricho Cotchery against an aging Shawn Springs, returning to the lineup from a knee injury and a mix of rookie Darrius Butler and Jason Wilhite. Cotchery always seems to play well against New England. He'll have a good chance to do so again. Dustin Keller should remain Sanchez's primary read, though. It's important not to make mistakes. Keller's a safety valve, and aside from Merriweather and Jerrod Mayo, New England's linebackers and safeties aren't great in coverage.

The Jets did a lot to exploit New England's pass defense in the second half of the first game. This was without Braylon Edwards. As long as they can keep Sanchez upright, they'll have some favorable matchups again. I do not expect this platform to affect Sanchez. Less than a year ago, Mark lit up the Rose Bowl. Obviously, this is a tougher defense, but the pressure of the game won't get to him. Aside from Banta-Cain and Wright, the Pats don't really have any great pass rushers in their front seven. Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess have ability but haven't really lit the world on fire this year. The Jets just need to do what it takes to keep Sanchez standing.

Week 10: Friday Colts-Pats Injury Report

shake n bake — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:31:37 -0000

New additions to the list were safety Aaron Fransisco missing part of today's practice with a shin injury and Tony Ugoh getting the day off. Jim Sorgi returned to practice on a limited basis while Vinny, Gonzo and Hayden missed practice for a 3rd day.

OUT: Kelvin Hayden (knee), Adam Vinitieri (knee), Anthony Gonzalez (knee)

Questionable: Aaron Fransisco (shin), Jim Sorgi (shoulder)

Colts.com

Over on the Pats side a wave of players returned to practice, all listed as limited participants.

OUT: DE Jarvis Green, RB Fred Taylor, WR Brandon Tate

Doubtful: LT Matt Light

Questionable: LB Eric Alexander, TE Chris Baker, LB Tully Banta-Cain, NT Ron Brace, WR Julian Edelman, C Dan Koppen, S Brandon Meriweather, RB Sammy Morris, S James Sanders, DE Ty Warren

Probable: QB Tom Brady, CB Shawn Springs, TE Ben Watson

Patriots.com

Week 10: Wednesday Injury Report

shake n bake — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:19:44 -0000

The Wednesday report is mercifully short with 4 players injured and a day off. Unsurprisingly Anthony Gonzalez, Kelvin Hayden and Adam Vinitieri sat out injured. The very odd addition to the report is Jim Sorgi, who managed to injure his right shoulder in some way, despite not having played in 2 weeks. Getting the day off was Dwight Freeney. He was hobbled a bit after taking a chop block Sunday so I'll be watching for him on report tomorrow.

Colts.com link

A long list over on the Pats side. Missing practice were;

LB Eric Alexander (Groin), WR Julian Edelman (Forearm), DE Jarvis Green (Knee), C Dan Koppen (Knee) T Matt Light (Knee), S Brandon Meriweather (Foot), RB Sammy Morris (Knee) WR Brandon Tate (Knee), RB Fred Taylor (Ankle), DE Ty Warren (Ankle).

That's two starting linemen, a starting RB and one of his backups, both starting DEs, the teams 3rd and 4th WRs and a starting safety. That looks like the kind of report the Colts usually take into big games.

Oddly Randy Moss is listed both as sitting out practice for non-injury reasons, and as fully participating in practice with a shoulder injury along with Tom Brady (Right Shoulder), and Shawn Springs (knee).

Pats link

Dolphins vs Patriots: Miami's Keys to Victory

Matty I — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:15:20 -0000

I'll take some more of this, please.

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Huge. There's no way around it. That's what Sunday's game between the Dolphins and the Patriots up in Foxborough is. It's huge - for the Dolphins, at least.

A win up in New England would pull the Dolphins within one game of the division lead and give the Dolphins a 4-0 record within the division - which would mean a win over Buffalo later on in the year would give the Dolphins the tie-breaker over the Patriots regardless of how their second meeting plays out in Miami. So let's be real about this game - it's a season-defining game, though at this point I think every game for the Dolphins is critical. But that's what putting yourself in a 2-4 hole does - it magnifies every game from here on out.

So what do the Dolphins have to do to leave Foxborough with a win for the second consecutive time? A lot, of course. But these three factors are among the most important.

Pressure, Pressure, Pressure
This is probably the most obvious key for the Dolphins - and yet it's also the most important. We know how dominant New England's passing attack can be. In my opinion, there is no better duo at the wide receiver position than Randy Moss and Wes Welker. They each have their own strengths and roles and they compliment each other absolutely perfectly.

It's no coincidence that the Patriots have the second best passing offense in the NFL and have been sacked the third fewest times all season. It's also no coincidence that in two of their last three losses with Tom Brady under center, it's been outstanding, relentless pass rushes that have slowed New England's dynamic offense - scoring just 23 combined points in those two games. The two games I'm referring to, of course, are the Super Bowl against the Giants back in February of 2008 and the Pats' week two loss to the Jets back in September. In each of those games, Tom Brady was under constant duress. The Giants got to Brady for five sacks. The Jets didn't actually record any sacks. But if you watched that game, you'd know that the various blitz packages the Jets were sending did enough to force Brady to have to throw the football well before he wanted to.

In those two games, Brady connected on just 55% of his throws and averaged just 5.07 yards per attempt. That's the blueprint the Dolphins will look to follow on Sunday.

To accomplish this, the Dolphins will obviously need big performances out of Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. But it goes beyond just those two. Randy Starks has been outstandthing this year and another big performance out of him would be terrific. Cameron Wake has been quiet since his big week against Buffalo, but I think we might see a little bit more of him on Sunday. I also expect t o see more of those safety blitzes we saw last week with Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell.

The Pats will likely be without starting left tackle Matt Light, which means the Dolphins should have even more opportunities to get to Brady. They can't let those opportunities go to waste.

Pound the rock, but keep Pats honest
We all know the blueprint for what the Dolphins must do on offense against the Patriots. They have got to establish the ground game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams against a rush defense that is average at best. The Patriots are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the ground this season, with is in the bottom third of the league. But teams have been forced to abandon the run against New England because they fall behind early. The Dolphins have got to prevent that from happening by getting the ground attack going early.

Of course, the Patriots know this. Bill Belichick can probably tell us all the exact number of times the Dolphins have ran the football out of every formation - 'Wildcat' included. And with him having had two weeks to prepare for this game thanks to New England's bye week, I'm sure we'll see some looks out of this Patriot defense that nobody has seen all year. But keep in mind that they traded away Richard Seymour prior to the season and Jarvis Green is out with a knee injury, meaning Mike Wright - a player with minimal starting experience - will be starting at the defensive end spot opposite Ty Warren, who is nursing an ankle injury himself.

With that said, though, it's important that the Dolphins do their best to prevent the Patriots from loading up on the run like the Saints and Jets have done the past two weeks. There were times on Sunday when the Jets actually had nine men in the box. That's because teams don't respect Miami's group of receivers nor do they think Dan Henning will call plays for Chad Henne to throw some deep balls.

This week I hope to see Henning give Henne a chance to make some plays down the field, which would help keep New England's defense honest and prevent their two athletic safeties from inching closer and closer to the line of scrimmage. The Patriots aren't exactly loaded in the secondary, either. So there will be plays to be made if Henning just gives Henne a shot. I know we all want to remain committed to the run. But I just don't think Belichick is going to let the Dolphins have a chance to get Ronnie and Ricky rolling. He's going to go all out to stop those two - as he should. It'll be up to Miami's offense to give Belichick a reason to stop loading up against the run.

Make a game-changing non-offensive play
Last week, the Dolphins beat the Jets thanks to three game-changing plays that were made in the other two phases of the game - not on offense. Ted Ginn's two kickoff returns for touchdowns and Jason Taylor's fumble return for a touchdown spotted the Dolphins 21 non-offensive points. This week, the Dolphins need another big play in New England.

There's no way around the fact that Miami's offense isn't nearly as potent as the Patriots are on offense. That's why the Dolphins really do need some kind of huge game-changing play in one of the two other phases of the game. The Patriots are 19th in the league in kickoff coverage, allowing 23.5 yards per return. Prior to last week, the Jets were allowing only 20.5 yards per kickoff return - one of the lowest totals in the entire league - before Ted Ginn and the Dolphins' return unit sliced the Jets up for 299 kickoff return yards on just 6 returns, including Teddy's two touchdowns. So there's no reason why the Dolphins can't get a big play or two to, if nothing else, swing the field position battle and build some momentum.

Defensively, the Dolphins will see a ton of passes fly through the air as Tom Brady is expected to throw the ball early and often against Miami's secondary. To date, Brady has thrown just 4 interceptions so making that big game-changing defensive play obviously will not be easy. But he also isn't afraid to put the ball up for grabs - especially in the direction of Randy Moss. And for the first time in a while, the Dolphins have at least two capable corners who can make a big play. Sean Smith and Vontae Davis both have excellent ball skills. Now I'm not saying I expect some kind of big play - but I wouldn't be surprised, either.

MHR Chalk Talk -- New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (Week 5, '09)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:30:14 -0000

There are three sides to a football team, which we call the offense, the defense, and special teams. The best teams are elite on all sides of the ball. So after 25% of the regular season is complete, consider this for Denver...

Offense -

QB Orton has thrown at least one TD in every game and zero interceptions. He has a very respectable rating of 97.7 and a completion rate of 59%. And he's done this with a restrictive glove on his hand to protect an injury. The glove comes off this week.

RB Correll Buckhalter averages 7.2 yards a carry. 7.2 YPC!!! Is that a statistical fluke? 37 carries should be enough of a base to demonstrate that this amazing stat isn't based on just a few carries or big plays. (Denver's "other" RB, Knowshon Moreno, is up currently up for NFL Rookie of the Week).

Defense -

It doesn't get better than this - after four games, Denver's opponents are averaging less than a touchdown per game. That's just plain "scary good".

Denver has been playing Super Bowl-level defense so far. They've given up the fewest point in the NFL, the second-fewest total yards, the third-fewest passing yards, and the fifth-fewest rushing yards.

Special Teams -

Kicker Matt Prater was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September.

Denver has beaten the Bengals. The Bengals would be undefeated except for that loss, having also beaten the Steelers, the Packers, and the Browns. Denver also beat Dallas, a team that many considered "a real test for Denver". Dallas lost a close game against the potential Super Bowl-favorite Giants 31-33, and won the rest of their games minus the game against Denver. Denver's schedule also included two teams that are struggling (the Browns and the Raiders), but the message is clear; The Denver Broncos are back.

This week, the team will face their toughest challenge to date, the New England Patriots. My gut has been that the Patriots have the edge for this game for several reasons. First, the success that Denver has is due in large part to Denver's desire to copy the NE approach to preparing and growing a football team. Denver is doing a great job, but the genesis for the program is in NE. While Denver is proving themselves to everybody, NE is a cornerstone of football excellence and has been for the decade. But as I dug deeper, I found some tidbits that give me hope for a historic start for Denver. Let's break down the matchups and see what information comes off the chalk board.

The New England Offense

It all starts with Tom Brady, easily one of the top three QBs in the League. Brady does many things very well. First, he spreads the ball around so that opposing teams can't focus on one threat. His movement within the pocket is the best I've ever seen. With a quick step, Brady avoids hits and buys crucial extra seconds to throw the ball. Brady is accurate, and can throw deep. He is very good at reading defenses, and makes good adjustments at the line. Chicks dig him (I'm told).

The NE receivers and TEs are all very good, but three of them are freakishly good. If you know nothing about football, you've heard of Randy Moss. Randy Moss is a deep threat at WR, and deadly. He has the speed, the hands, and the quick stutter step to create distance between himself and just about any defender. Moss has been widely considered one of the best WRs in the League for several years, and with different QBs on different teams. Complementing Moss, Wes Walker specializes in routes in short- to middle-ranges. His quickness and physical play makes him enough of a legitimate threat that no defense can throw everything at stopping Moss. Moss and Welker are arguably one of the top receiving tandems in the League, and playing with one of the best QBs.

It doesn't stop there. One of my favorite TEs in the game is Ben Watson. He has 2 TDs so far this season, and is averaging 14.5 receiving yards after 12 passes. Many players are good at what they do, but Watson is a pure athletic specimen. His speed is frightening, and he has very good hands. He is too fast to be covered by a linebacker, and too physical for most defensive backs. You may recall the 2005 AFC Divisional game in Denver during which elite CB and speed demon Champ Bailey got an interception and ran the ball back nearly the length of the field, only to be hit at the last second by Ben Watson, who took a perfect angle (starting as far back plus the width of the field) with smoke and flames flying off of his patented Iron Man Jet-Boots.

But this year, NE hasn't looked great at running back. They are getting at least 100 yards a game on the ground, but only rank 17th in the run. Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor are all capable RBs, and only need to do enough to make the passing game a threat. In short yardage, they can cause most defenses to choose between stopping the first down or a major play, but they aren't causing a lot of concern for most teams.

The Patriots run the same offensive system as Denver. They will use a lot of 3-WR sets, and like to use two-TE sets as well. They like the edges of the field. When they bring in a FB (Laurence Maroney) he blocks - nothing more. He has no receptions this year, and only 2.9 yards per carry. Brady will throw screen passes to the edges that set up complex blocking schemes to get the receiver downfield, or he will throw to Welker and rely on Welker's solid routes and evasive skills, or he will go to Moss for the deep threat. Watson at TE is the threat always lurking in the passing game, as he can catch the quick hook or just streak up the middle and "split the safeties".

Whatever is a defense to do? That's right. They call in the Blue and the Orange.

The Denver Broncos Defense

Denver can take Welker out of the passing game with their fantastic pass rush. That rush is so effective, it really doesn't require Denver to blitz much at all. (Denver hasn't even really blitzed much this year!) The face of the Denver pass rush attack is Elvis Dumervil. Look at the following two video clips. The first shows Neo (from the film "The Matrix") dodging bullets. The second shows Elvis Dumervil avoiding a face mask with same move as Neo, and going after QB Tony Romo for the sack. Yes, the same back bending move.

NEO -

Dumervil -

(click here, then go to the 1:46 mark, and watch until 1:52)

A defense beats Tom Brady the same way that they beat Peyton Manning of the Colts; they pressure the QB. Denver is doing this better than anyone right now. This is also how the Jets managed to beat Brady.

A second benefit of the pass rush is that it keeps Watson in check. I wrote that the deadly weapon against the Broncos that the Cowboys possessed was TE Jason Witten. Denver's amazing pass rush forced Witten to stay on the line to protect Romo, and took Witten's potential mismatches out of the game. With an effective pass rush, and moving Dumervil around on the line, Watson should be kept in a blocking role.

So we see how the pass rush helps Denver in two key areas - it minimizes Brady, and it takes Watson out of the game. What else does Denver need to do?

The run game isn't a threat for Week Five. Denver's players can play their own brand of football (plugging the gaps with five lineman in a 5-2 look, allowing the LBs enough protection at the second level to stop runs).

In the passing game, Champ Bailey will match up with Moss. This is the best a defense can ask for against Moss; having the best CB in the League to match up against an elite WR is a major help. Against Welker, Denver will have CB Andre' Goodman. He already has an INT for 30 yards (it came against Oakland), and has been playing extremely well opposite Bailey. Anything that can get through either of these high quality CBs faces legendary safety Brian Dawkins and play-making strong safety Renaldo Hill. That's right, both Goodman and Hill have turned into playmakers in Denver, giving Denver a secondary for the ages. (I'll repeat, as I do each week, that there is an argument to be made that Dawkins and Bailey are the best players to have ever played at free safety and cornerback, respectively).

Unlike the last couple of years, Denver is wisely playing both safeties in deep zone coverage, which takes away deep plays and gives both safeties added time to assess and react. As readers of MHR's Xs and Os authors HoosierTeacher and TedBartlett905 know (if I may say so myself), the two best ways to help your cornerbacks to look elite is to have a good pass rush (from the front 7) and solid protection over the top (from the safeties). Denver now has both.

The Denver Offense vs The New England Defense

Denver's offense may not have Tom Brady, but they have some advantages. The offensive line features two of the best tackles in the NFL in Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris. Denver is loaded in depth at WR. Let's look at the list.

Brandon Marshall - We knew he could run over defenders, but after the game against Dallas, we learned that he has amazing cut-back skills. If he gets the ball, he's very hard to stop.
Eddie Royal - Doesn't shine as much in an offense that spreads the ball around. But his route skills, agility, speed and hands make him a deadly threat if any team dares to leave him in single coverage with no support in the deep secondary.
Brandon Stokley - Excellent hands, excellent experience, excellent route runner, and willing to take punishment to make the dangerous catches. Colts' loss, our gain.
Jabar Gaffney - Familiar with the NE system, he came to Denver already knowing how to play in the new offense. Both he and Stokely can play at #1 or #2 in the event of an injury, and the team would carry on.

Now here's my question for the average fan. You've heard of Shawn Springs at CB, but can you name any other CB on the NE roster? Terrence Wheatley was the only name that came to my mind before I looked up the roster (and no, he's not the #2 CB). In fact, when you move past Vince Wilfork at NT and Ty Warren at LDE, most of the names wouldn't be recognizable to most fans. This isn't a bad thing, since many non-Denver fans probably couldn't name many of the Denver front-seven's players. Name recognition isn't everything, but the point is that NE has had turnover on the defense, and is even currently in talks to bring back Junior Seau.

New England plays the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4, and relies on multiple looks out of this base to confuse and adjust to opponents. They are well coached, and will improve as the season moves forward. As it is, they rate above average in each vital category (points against - 9th, yards against - 7th, pass against yards 7th, run against yards 11th).

I think Denver will do what they always do, with little change. They'll run the ball and try to establish an early running game. They'll mix in screen plays (which sometimes include the RB in the slot), and spread the field with multiple receiving threats. It will be interesting to see how much difference we might see with Orton's protective glove off.

Matchups in Terms of Rankings

(advantage in italics and bold)

Denver vs New England

Offense Defense

Points scored (avg and rank) 19.8 (19th) 17.8 (9th) Points against (avg and rank)

Yards for (avg and rank) 365 (9th) 287.5 (7th) Yards against (avg and rank)

Pass yards (avg and rank) 217 (18th) 192.2 (7th) Passed against (avg and rank)

Run yards (avg and rank) 148 (4th) 95.2 (11th) Ran against (avg and rank)

Defense Offense

Points against (avg and rank) 6.5 (1) 21.8 (14th) Points scored (avg and rank)

Yards against (avg and rank) 239.8 (2nd) 376 (8th) Yards for (avg and rank)

Passed against (avg and rank) 162.5 (3rd) 273.8 (5th) Pass yards (avg and rank)

Ran against (avg and rank) 77.2 (5th) 102.3 (17th) Run yards (avg and rank)

Keys to the Game

Denver

Go after Brady. With a good pass rush by Denver, the Patriots lose Watson in the passing game, and Brady has trouble getting the ball to his receivers without risking interceptions.
Establish the run. Both teams demonstrate better defenses than the opponent's offense in this game except in one matchup. Denver's run game is better than the NE run defense. Denver needs to exploit this in order to keep Brady off the field, and to assist Orton by keeping the defense from focusing on the pass.
Don't allow the big play. Denver likes to shut down offenses, and to plod along on offense until they see an opening to exploit. This makes for a low-scoring game, and low tempo. If NE is able to create some quick strikes, it may take Denver several possessions to score.

New England

Don't leave points on the field. Denver won't score on most possesions. A score on every or most possessions (even a FG) will be hard for Denver to catch.
Get the lead. Denver can protect a lead with the running game easier than they can play catch up. Against Dallas and Cincy, Denver had to rely on big pass plays near the end of the games to get their wins. Get the lead, and force Denver from playing their 4th ranked running game into playing their 18th ranked passing game.
Protect Brady at all costs. This is the direct inverse, but it is the number one key for both teams, so it bears repeating. In my opinion, the game comes down to whether Brady gets pressured or not.

Conclusion

Before the season, I would have called this game for NE. In fact, going into my preparation for this article, I would have given NE the edge. The more I look at the matchups, the more I see that the teams appear to be very balanced. Both teams will use two TE sets to stop the 3-4 (or Denver's 5-2, if you prefer). NE has the advantage at QB, but both teams have fantastic WRs and TEs. Denver may have the advantage at OL. Right now, I'll take the Denver defense over the Patriots defense in terms of personnel and effectiveness, and I'll take Denver's running game over the Pats.

The key always seem to come down to the trenches, and this game is no different. In this case, if Denver can get to Brady throughout the game, I predict a Denver win. If Brady has time, the game goes the other way. I tend to think the Broncos can get to Brady, but I also think NE will make adjustments throughout the game to protect Brady (including quick passes, screens, and check downs more so than actual blocking adjustments).

This game is too close to call. I really have to give many advantages to Denver (including homefield, the running game, and the elite defense), but NE has the intangible of having the coach from whom our own coach learned from. I ran a very good defense when I coached, and learned everything from my own head coach as well as the first (and only) DC I worked under. Still, I have to admit that I can't begin to fathom coaching against my old mentor and having any success. I'm sure McDaniels is more confident than I am, but when you hold up a mentor as the best coach in the League (and I think McDaniels holds Belichick in this regard), it is hard for me to believe that the butterflys aren't in the gut right about now. McDaniels will do everything in his power to ready this team, and the players won't be intimidated. So may be this really is "just another game".

If Denver wins, they move beyond being for real and become real contenders for a deep playoff run. If they lose, the doomsayers will claim that the Broncos aren't so great after all.

Denver has a two-game lead over SD in the AFC West playoff race. SD has the week off to nurse wounds, then plays Denver, then plays two games they should win (KC and OAK). Denver needs all the padding they can get for their lead in the race.

Win or lose, Denver has already proven that they have a very good team. We should shake off the concerns for how the media folks see Denver, and do what fans of good teams do. Let's focus on the race for the playoffs now, and use this game as an early gauge for how well we might fare. (And let's not forget the revenge factor after a beating last year at the hands of the Patriots. The engineer of that beating is now on our side, so it should be a very interesting game).

Poll

So who's going to win?

Denver

644 votes

New England

112 votes

Too close to call

273 votes

I'm a Patriots fan, and I just came here to screw up your poll.

28 votes

1057 votes | Poll has closed

Five Questions For Three Patriots Blogger

Dave the Falconer — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

Bill Belicheck flinches at the thought of Patriots fans answering questions in an honest and straightforward manner. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

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No longer satisfied with the answers of a single blogger, I filled my pack with provisions and headed out into the foothills of Massachusetts. When I emerged, hours later, I had bagged three bloggers, all of them able to answer my arcane questions about the very nature of the New England Patriots.

I want to give a shout out to the fine folks at Pats Pulpit, NE Patriots Draft and Patriots Daily. It was great corresponding with everyone, and getting a variety of answers should generate a little more debate amongst you, the readers of the ~~best~~ most Falcons blog on the net. Check out all the answers after the jump.

Dave the Falconer: Have Tom Brady's struggles thus far been related to rust coming off an injury, or is there something else going on there?

MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: I think rust is a legitimate concern for us Patriots fans. Brady has said that he feels his mechanics are not quite what they used to be. I've also read, from Brady and his receivers, that they're still working on their connection. It's especially hard for Joey Galloway, our #3. It's easier with Randy Moss and Wes Welker considering the 2007 streak, but there's still a year's worth of stuff to make up.

NE Patriots Draft: I think it is rust, but more because of the lack of timing. Brady has looked a bit tentative at times, presumably due to the injury, but quick routes and dump-offs are being missed. That leads me to believe that after a few more games, the timing will click back in.

Patriots Daily: Rust is definitely a factor. However, he's still adjusting to the knee, and because of that, his footwork isn't what it needs to be. He's been throwing off the back foot more, and it has impacted his accuracy. He was also flattened by Albert Haynesworth in the preseason and injured his shoulder a little bit. It hasn't been mentioned too much as a problem, but you've got to think that the rust, the knee and the shoulder all are conspiring against him right now. I fear it may be a few more weeks before we see him back to his old self. A comparison often made around here is Peyton Manning last year. He struggled, and the Colts struggled in the early going because of his knee surgery, but he eventually put it together. We're hoping for similar results here.

DtF: I've had the chance to watch your running game quite a bit over the last couple of years, and I have to ask....is Laurence Maroney ever going to get it going? Do you guys need a true feature back, or does the committee approach work well?

PP: We've been hoping, for many years, that Laurence would breakout as that workhorse back we've all been looking for. At this stage, and given what I've seen, I don't see it happening. I think the backfield by committee approach is here to stay in New England. In 2008, we were #1 in the AFC East and #6 in the NFL; it seems to work for us.

NPD: I think Maroney is running very hard this year. He is taking a yard gain this year, where before he would dance and end up losing ground. He has had a few negative plays, but those were mainly the fault of our left tackle.

PD: Maroney has had injury problems, and some question his toughness. However down the stretch in 2007 and in the first two playoff games that season, he was everything you want in a running back. Last year he missed most of the season after injuring his shoulder. The Patriots seem to favor the committee approach just to try and limit the wear and tear on their backs. Fred Taylor looked good last week against the Jets, and I can see him getting an increased role this week. Sammy Morris had been their best back in the first half of the last two seasons, but wore down as the season went on. I think the Patriots are trying to keep them all fresh, while at the same time allowing them to play enough to stay sharp. It's a tough balance to achieve, especially when you're throwing the ball so much. I'm hoping you'll see a bigger commitment to the run until Brady can get his issues settled down.

DtF: If you were the Falcons, how would you defend against Randy Moss?

PP: Force him away from his sideline routes. He's a gazelle, not a jackrabbit. While he's learning to be the latter, he's much happier on routes that take a bit of time to get up to speed. Once he IS up to that speed, he's hard to catch. Turn him inside or under 10-15 yards and he struggles.

NPD: I would bump him at the line, and roll a safety over to his side all day. The Patriots haven't shown that they can stretch the field across from Moss, and the Jets used this tactic to perfection.

PD: Either a straight double-team, or a tight man-to-man coverage with safety help over the top. That seems to be the most effective, though Moss has made some adjustments by going over the middle more this preseason and regular season - more than I've ever seen him do. The Jets had success with Darelle Revis last week, but I'm sure it also helped that Wes Welker wasn't playing. If Welker is in the game, it's going to be tough for any defense to completely shut off Moss.

DtF: With Richard Seymour traded and Jerod Mayo hurt, how is your front seven looking thus far?

PP: As a 4-3, I'd say they're ok. I'm still waiting for a strong pass rusher to emerge; I thought Derrick Burgess would be that guy, but I haven't seen it yet. As a 3-4, I'm concerned with the back 4. We're really struggling to fill the ranks at ILB with Tedy Bruschi retired and Jerod Mayo out for 5 more weeks. I'm worried at this point.

NDP: After looking silly against the Bills and Fred Jackson, the front seven looked much improved against the Jets. Gary Guyton, filling in for Jerod Mayo, is the key to stopping the run this week.

PD: It's been decent. Mayo's injury hurt a lot more than the trade of Seymour. Mayo was to be the centerpiece of the defense, and a big reason why they were doing more 4-3 formations. The idea was that Mayo would be freed up to make plays all over the field. Gary Guyton has replaced Mayo for the time being, and though he led the team in tackles against the Jets, he had some struggles out there. Adalius Thomas was pretty much invisible last week, and that just can't happen. The run defense has been solid overall, with Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren still in place up front. The problem has been getting pressure on the quarterback, and that is where they need improvement. Mike Wright and Jarvis Green have been the primary replacements for Seymour, and need to get to the QB for the defense to be more well-rounded.

DtF: What's your prediction for the game on Sunday?

PP: My sense is this is the game Brady will come out. I've been listening to his pressers enough to know he's aggravated by his performance and will be working hard to make an impact this coming Sunday. However, the Falcons have a lot to play for, specifically dominance of the NFC South or, at the very least, stay tied with the Saints. I think this game could go either way, but it'll be very close: 24-21.

NDP: 27-24 Patriots in overtime. The Falcons are a great team, but I feel like they don't have the secondary to stay with the Patriot receivers. If they are able to get to Brady early though, Atlanta has the ability to win by double-digits.

PD: I really hate predictions, probably because I'm so awful at them. I don't see Brady solving all his problems in one week, so that's a plus for the Falcons. I hope there is a bigger focus on the running game, especially since the Falcons have lost Peria Jerry. Matt Ryan should have success throwing to Tony Gonzalez whenever he wants, but I think the Patriots defense will make a big play or two this week. The home field will mean a lot to the Patriots in terms of comfort especially for Brady and the offense. I see a pretty tight game here, maybe 24-17 Patriots.

Thanks again to everyone who participated! Here's to a great game on Sunday.

Game Recap: Jets defeat Patriots, 16-9

MaPatsFan — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:01:43 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

3 months ago: New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss (81) loses control of the ball after it was knocked away by New York Jets safety Kerry Rhodes (25) as Jim Leonhard (36) pursues during the second quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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It was 9-3 Patriots going into the second half and, on the surface, we essentially had control of the game. The problem? All nine points were off of Stephen Gostkowski's foot which meant our red zone efficiency was crap. And looking at the numbers, that is proven: 0/3.

I remember thinking that if the Jets clean their game up, we'll be in trouble. While we were ahead, it was a dogfight on defense; pressure was the name of the game for this matchup and NY figured out how to get around our pass protection while providing enough protection for Mark Sanchez. Or, our defense simply ran out of gas. Either way, some defensive re-tooling is necessary.

As we've discussed all week, the feeling was Rex Ryan would bring the house and amp up the pass pressure. I think today was evidence of that. Tom Brady was rushed repeatedly. There were times in the first half when Brady's pass protection looked very good, with Laurence Maroney providing a lot of extra protection. That all ended in the second half. The Jets' defense started getting to him. No sacks, but a lot of hurries. And it showed. Brady was overthrowing a lot of balls. But the reception woes weren't necessarily all on Brady; some of the misses were blown routes and/or a lack of communication between Brady and his receivers.

The rushing attack wasn't stellar, but it seemed to provide enough diversity to keep NY on their toes, at least for the first half. El Mo looked good and Fred Taylor seemed to have a couple of good runs that could've broken away. The rushing yardage wasn't stellar, but it was enough to keep things unbalanced. Unfortunately, Brady was never able to hit his screens effectively. Running backs, including Kevin Faulk, were taken out of the game from a reception standpoint.

As hard as it is, let's take a look at the numbers:

Red Zone efficiency - Patriots: 0/3, Jets: 1/3. If ya can't punch it in for six, it's gonna be a long day and that's exactly what we got today.
Passing - 23/47, 216 yards. You can't go under 50% with low yardage like that and expect to mount a crushing aerial attack. This is so un-Brady. And a QB rating of 53.1. Ouch.
Penalties - 11 for 89 yards vs. the Jets 8 for 55. The Patriots' 11 included 3 (2 back-to-back) delay game penalties.
Special Teams - Jets' Leon Washington had four kickoff returns for an average of 31 yards and a long of 43 while our average, split between Maroney and Julian Edelman, hovered at 20 yards. Stephen Gostkowski, usually able to boot it into the endzone for a touchback repeatedly, had only two for four.

Were there any bright spots in this game?

Julian Edelman stepped in nicely for the ailing Wes Welker to the tune of 8 for 98 and a long of 29.
DE's Ty Warren and Mike Wright each had a sack on Mark Sanchez.
Vince Wilfork and Mike Wright were each credited with a forced fumble.
Most of the thing wrong with this game, from the Patriots perspective, are fixable.

I hate to say it, but this one's on Tom Brady. There was pressure, but a lot of bad passes. That's not good for a team that depends on their aerial attack.

New York Jets Run Offense vs. New England Patriots Run Defense

John B — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

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It would be nice if the Jets could establish the run early and take a lot of pressure off their rookie quarterback. I think Bill Belichick will do whatever it takes to prevent that from taking place. The Pats will probably stick eight or even nine in the box to force the Jets to throw the ball. Mark Sanchez made the Texans pay and eventually forced them to respect his arm, which opened things late for Thomas Jones.

This is not a vintage Pats front seven, especially with Jerod Mayo sitting this one out. Mayo is vying with David Harris for the title of top young inside linebacker in the division. Mayo had 20 tackles on Thursday night in Foxborough back in 2008. That will leave Eric Alexander and Gary Guyton to man the inside. This leaves a pair of matchups as key. Nick Mangold against Vince Wilfork is always an elite battle. So will be Ty Warren against Brandon Moore and Damien Woody.

Jarvis Green is a quality starter, replacing the departed Richard Seymour at defensive end. The Bills broke some runs going after him. I wouldn't expect the Jets to test him much. Gang Green loves to run right to Warren's side, away from the left, where D'Brickashaw Ferguson's limitations in the run game are a factor. The Jets are going to challenge Wilfork and Warren, sending Tony Richardson and pulling Alan Faneca to the side often. If they can control the pair up front and hit the second level, there will be favorable matchups and opportunities for Thomas Jones to break big gains. This will force safeties Brandon Merriweather and James Sanders to call the box home. Merriweather and Sanders are going to spend time in the box, but if the Jets run effectively, Bill Belichick will have to play there more than they want. It will open up a lot for Mark Sanchez, and the rookie looks like he can exploit it. Of the outside linebackers, Adalius Thomas is very good against the run, but Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess are strongest against the run. Pierre Woods did have a big game against the Jets last season.

I expect Brian Schottenheimer to have a few tricks up his sleeve. Plenty of gimmick looks out of the Seminole formation and perhaps some run-pass options for Brad Smith to try and catch the Pats off guard. The Jets had some success out of an option look with Smith two years ago.

I'm thinking this game comes down to Mark Sanchez. I see the Pats doing everything they can to stop the run. If New York establishes the ground game early, it could be a really really fun day for the New Yorkers.

A look back: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills, Part 2

MaPatsFan — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 00:48:38 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

4 months ago: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks on during NFL football training camp at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., Wednesday, Aug.5, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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In Part 1, we reviewed Patriots and Bills matchups from 2000-2004, the first five years of Belichick's tenure with New England. In this era, Buffalo managed two wins against NE, but it would be the only two Belichick would ever surrender to our AFC East rival. A 16-2 record against our adversary from New York is a historical fact we Pats fans relish and one Bills fans, every year, hope to change. History is history and doesn't necessarily predict the future, but Pretty Boy is back with some new toys.

Ok, let's review 2005-2008 after the jump.

Oct 30, 2005 - BUF 16 @ NE 21

Both quarterbacks, Kelly Holcomb and Tom Brady, only threw for one touchdown, but Patriots RB Corey Dillon managed two TD's on the ground to none for Buffalo, clearly illustrated by a 0/3 red zone efficiency to the Patriots 2/2. Oddly enough, Buffalo at the ball for almost 40 minutes to the Patriot's 20. Red zone efficiency (or lack thereof) will kill you.

Dec 11, 2005 - NE 35 @ BUF 7

Tom Brady hammered Buffalo in this matchup. With 29 completions, 329 yards, and 2 touchdowns, it was hard to recover from that kind of aerial assault. Corey Dillon and Tom Brady sealed the coffin with one rushing touchdown apiece. A third down efficiency of 68% vs. Buffalo's 20% added a few nails as well. 4/5 in the red zone vs. 0/2 meant more trips and a better percentage. Red zone's the ticket, baby!!

Sep 10, 2006 - BUF 17 @ NE 19

Passing numbers were virtually identical between J.P. Losman and Tom Brady, but Brady put up two TD's to Losman's zero. 2/3 in the red zone vs. 1/2 was the winning formula, as is the case in so many games. The game winning two points were the result of a Ty Warren induced safety on Losman with 9:37 left in the game. That had to be frustrating for a Bills fan.

Oct 22, 2006 - NE 28 @ BUF 6

Like their previous 2006 matchup, passing stats were almost identical except for two Tom Brady touchdowns. Add to that two Corey Dillon rushing TD's, and it was light's out. There's really not much to say here; Buffalo made it to the red zone once and didn't convert while the Patriot were 3/3. 'Nuff said.

Sep 23, 2007 - BUF 7 @ NE 38

This was the year that everyone would fall to New England. Well, except for "That Game". Trent Edwards stepped in when Vince Wilfork hit J.P. Losman's knee, but Buffalo simply couldn't overcome Brady's four touchdown passes and Sammy Morris's rushing TD. The Patriots were on a role and this game would be a harbinger of things to come...again.

Nov 18, 2007 - NE 56 @ BUF 10

The score says it all. It was nuts. Brady was unconscious with 31/39, 373 yards and 5 touchdown passes. Kyle Eckel and Laurence Maroney each had a rushing TD. To add to the embarrassment, Ellis Hobbs scores on a fumble recovery. Randy Moss would tally up 128 yards and four touchdowns, a career high.

Nov 9, 2008 - BUF 10 @ NE 20

With Tom Brady rehabilitating from ACL/MCL knee surgery, Buffalo had it's chance to end the losing streak with Matt Cassel at the helm. No such luck. Did I mention Laurence Maroney was IR'd and LaMont Jordan was out as well? Trent Edwards threw for one TD, but two interceptions. Cassel had no TD passes to his credit, but he was able to get NE in the red zone so BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cassel could punch it in for six. Two field goals brought the Patriots to 20.

Dec 28, 2008 - NE 13 @ BUF 0

This was one of the windiest games I've ever seen. With a combined 33 passing attempts, this game was played on the ground. Why? 55 mile per hour wind gusts, that's why (check out the goal posts at 18 seconds into this video or Gostkowski's only miss literally getting blown away from the uprights towards the end of the clip). It was a miracle Stephen Gostkowski could even MAKE a field goal, let alone go 2/3. The sole touchdown of the day went to LaMont Jordan.

That's a wrap, gang. Class is over. It's time to welcome Tom Brady back under center in throwbacks. We've been chatting all week with our friends from Buffalo Rumblings. It's time to play some football.