SB Nation - Benjamin Watson

Keys to Victory: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Brian Galliford — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:29:54 -0000

This is it. The 5-8 Buffalo Bills, on the verge of an off-season of sweeping change and their tenth consecutive season without playoff football, are about to play in their Super Bowl. Call it Super Bowl AMNF (Avenge Monday Night Football), if you like. (Super Bowl ADOF - Avenge Decade Of Futility - works too.) The point is this: as far as big games go, this is by far the biggest of the three that the 2009 Bills will play this season.

You know the facts. The New England Patriots have won 12 straight games against the Bills, and 17 of 18 overall. The Bills had the Pats dead to rights in Week 1, leading the game 24-13 in the fourth quarter, but two Tom Brady touchdown throws to Benjamin Watson - sandwiched around a fumbled kickoff by Leodis McKelvin - allowed the Patriots to stick a dagger into Buffalo's hearts yet again, escaping with a 25-24 victory.

The Patriots are on something of a slide, however. They've lost three of their last five games after starting the season 6-2, and now lead the AFC East by just a game. We're all aware of what the Bills are, but there's a chance - however minor - that Buffalo could pull the upset on a vulnerable New England team. They'll need to accomplish all five keys to victory after the jump, however, to do so.

Find a way to get off the field defensively. Even with Brady banged up and the offense struggling to score points, Buffalo's defense is not going to be able to completely shut down the Pats, because nobody can. Buffalo has never been capable of containing Brady, either - just look at Brady's 39 completions in Week 1 after returning from a year's football hiatus as proof of that. The Bills' league-worst run defense won't be able to completely contain the Patriots' deep stable of runners, either. You can bet large sums of money, too, that Bill Belichick is keenly aware that the Bills have forced at least four turnovers in four of their five victories this season - so he'll preach ball security at all costs. That leaves third down defense. If Buffalo can't get off the field on third downs, they're duck soup.

Limit the big play. As mentioned, New England's offense is struggling a bit right now. They're averaging 19 points per game in their last three outings, and if the Bills play well, that number shouldn't grow dramatically given the Patriots' road woes. With that in mind, the Bills absolutely cannot give up long gainers on a frequent basis to bail the Pats out. Make them earn every yard. This obviously goes for Brady and the passing game (specifically Randy Moss), but it goes for the run defense, too, which gives out 20-yard runs like Santa gives out Christmas gifts.

Play mistake-free football offensively. By mistakes, I obviously mean penalties and, far more importantly, turnovers. The Bills have not had a turnover-free game offensively since their Week 7 victory at Carolina put them at 3-4 on the season. That's the team's only turnover-free game all season. Last week, a three-turnover outing offensively ruined Buffalo's chances of blowing out Kansas City; instead, they snuck out a hideous 16-10 victory on the road. Asking for a minimal amount of penalties might be getting greedy, considering the Bills will start their eighth different offensive line combination this week, but playing turnover-free football against a desperate opponent is of critical importance.

Get Lee Evans involved. This won't happen if Terrell Owens doesn't play (I think he will), because without Owens on the field, Belichick will simply employ his usual double coverage and completely erase Evans from the game. I swear, Patriots fans don't even know Lee Evans exists, unless they happen to have him on their fantasy teams. In 11 career games against New England, Evans has a mere 28 catches for 397 yards. That's less than 3 catches and about 36 yards per game. Lee Evans has never scored a touchdown against the New England Patriots. That's tough to wrap your mind around, isn't it? The statistical ineptitude needs to end, because the Bills are a different offensive team when Evans is involved, and there's no reason not to target Lee as many times as they target T.O. It's time for the New England suckitude to end, Mr. Evans.

Give these Pats your best shot. I don't mean play hard, because that's a weekly goal, win or lose. I'm talking about being the aggressor. I'm talking about playing with "1-17" stamped ferociously into your brain, Buffalo. Play pissed off, because you should be. This is a team that has used you as a freaking doormat for a decade. They clearly remain the more talented team, but there is absolutely no reason not to play to dominate this game - that's what the Pats do, after all. It goes beyond playing for pride, or playing to hang around with a superior team. It's about getting the franchise a signature win - it's been a meaningless decade of football in Buffalo, but knocking off New England and ending the losing streak might be the win of the decade. Play to dominate. Play to embarrass. Play within yourselves, Buffalo, but don't be passive. Kick some Patriot ass, even if you lose. Take it to this team.

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 15 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 13:00:25 -0000

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By now, pretty much every fantasy league should be in their playoffs. If not, what kind of league are you in?! For those of you lucky (or savvy) enough to still be fighting for your league's championship, congratulations.

The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots this Sunday in a matchup with decent fantasy implications - even for the Bills. Buffalo looks to finally knock the Patriots off, while Tom Brady and company are looking to better their playoff and division title chances with a road victory. Besides Brady, who might be worth a start in this do-or-die fantasy week? Let's find out.

Quarterbacks
Tom Brady - I think it's pretty obvious that if you own Brady, you start him. Despite having a "down" year from what many may have expected, he still has over 3800 yards and 23 touchdown passes thus far. And in case you forgot, he's owned the Bills throughout his career (240 yards per game, 2.1 touchdowns per game, 102.6 QB rating, 14-1 record). Start him with confidence, especially in this must win for the Patriots. Verdict: Start 'Em

Ryan Fitzpatrick - The typical Ryan Fitzpatrick games have returned as he's thrown for 184 yards the past two games....combined. Don't expect those numbers to improve greatly this week, even against a very susceptible Patriots' pass defense that's giving up 211 yards per game and has allowed 22 touchdown passes on the season. They've allowed over 300 yards passing in four of their last five road games. The opportunities will be there, but with Fitzpatrick as the quarterback, those will likely be wasted opportunities like so many other chances the Bills have had. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Running Backs
Laurence Maroney - Maroney has seen a bit of a rebirth this season, as he's been able to remain healthy and on the field for the entirety thus far. SInce taking over as the main rusher in the Patriots attack, he's put up 555 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns in 8 games. Those are solid numbers for a flex back, especially one who was mostly forgotten on draft day. With the Bills run defense still atrocious, Maroney will definitely have his chances to put up a monster game. Expect a short yardage touchdown and 75-100 yards at the very least. Verdict: Start 'Em

Sammy Morris - The former Bills has returned to the field recently after battling a knee injury. He's averaged roughly 7 touches per game in this three games since returning, but hasn't really had much of an impact. With Bill Belichick, you never know if Morris will assume the majority of the touches, but at this point, it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than a secondary option in the Patriots ground game. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Fred Jackson - Jackson continues to start and get the higher percentage of the rushes. I think that will continue. Jackson has been very successful against the Patriots recently putting up 276 total rushing and receiving yards and a touchdown in the past two match-ups between the teams. With Marshawn Lynch starting to come on, don't expect Jackson to get the type of work needed to reaches those numbers again, but he could be in line for a pretty solid fantasy day. I expect him to be a big factor in the passing game and he seems to be the goal line back at this point. I'd take a chance and go with him as a flex this week. Verdict: Start 'Em as a flex only

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is starting to run a lot better recently, picking up 144 yards on 18 rushes over the past two games. With an offensive line that is beginning to run block a little better, Lynch is starting to benefit. However, he's still only averaged 8 rushes per game over his last six games. Don't expect a big game out of him, but he could have a solid game all around. He's not worth starting in fantasy though. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Wide Receivers
Wes Welker - Welker has been fantasy gold this year, in normal formats and especially in PPR leagues. He leads the league in receptions with a whopping 105 thus far, and his currently second in the NFL with 1,158 yards. Taking out the season finale last year where nobody could throw the ball in the wind, Welker has 34 receptions for 347 yards in four games against the Bills since joining the Patriots. Amazingly, he hasn't found the endzone. Don't worry about that though. Welker will be his usual self catching a ton of passes and moving the chains. Start him with a ton of confidence. Verdict: Start 'Em

Randy Moss - A lot has been said about Moss the past week, and whether or not he quit against the Panthers. I don't believe he did, but then again, I didn't see a whole lot of that game. One thing I do know, Moss, Brady and Belichick will be hellbent on getting this guy going again. I fully expect them to go to Moss early and often. He's dominated the Bills during his Patriots career. Again taking out the Wind Bowl game, Moss has 32 receptions for 437 yards and 6 touchdowns in four games. I fully expect Moss to have a big game this week, especially if Reggie Corner is involved at all. He'll get his. Verdict: Start 'Em

Terrell Owens - Owens scored last week, but again had a down game. He's put up good numbers against teams that reside in Florida this season, but has struggled in pretty much every other game. In the first match-up, Owens had just 2 receptions and was effectively taken out of the game. The Patriots will try to do that again and it's hard to believe they won't succeed. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Lee Evans - If ever there is a team to definitely bench Evans against, it's the Patriots. He's struggled mightily against them during his career and those struggles should continue. Evans has been a non-factor for much of the season. God bless you if you are actually contemplating starting him this week, or ever again! Verdict: Sit 'Em

Tight Ends
Benjamin Watson - (Who goes by Benjamin?) Watson pretty much destroyed the Bills in the 4th quarter of the first match-up and ending up scoring the two touchdowns to give the Patriots the lead for good. He's been a bit player in the Patriots passing attack since that night, which is a surprise to no one. Stick with whatever has gotten you to this point. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Shawn Nelson - No way. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski - Gostkowski is 5th in the NFL with 106 points and 6th with 23 field goals made. He's one of the few kickers that you should keep in your lineup each week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Rian Lindell - Surprisingly enough, Lindell is actually tied with Gostkowski with those 23 field goals made. Still, you really can't rely on him to get his chances from week to week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Defense/Special Teams
New England D/ST - With Fitzpatrick and the cringe-inducing Bills offense as the opponent, there will be ample opportunities to pick up sacks and pick off some errant throws. They've been a solid fantasy unit this season, so you shouldn't really be concerned that they haven't done it this year. As is usually the case with fantasy defenses, you can pick up good chunks of points week to week based on matchups. I think this is one of those weeks. Verdict: Start 'Em

Buffalo D/ST - The pass defense has been opportunistic this season, but it's still hard to imagine them shutting down the Patriots this week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Sleepers
None - If you're still playing in your league at this point, you really aren't looking for any sleepers to get you some cheap points. Plus, I don't think there's any in this game as it is.

*******

Let's just hope the Bills put up a fight and keep the game within striking distance. The Patriots will likely be coming in hungry and ready to smack the Bills around. I just hope the Bills are ready to smack back! Good luck in your fantasy playoffs this week, and Go Buffalo!

Keys to Winning: Panthers @ Patriots

MaPatsFan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:58:44 -0000

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4 late players sent home on Wednesday? One (Adalius Thomas) a healthy scratch for today? Tom Brady a little bruised and banged up? Trouble in paradise?

Much has been made of "Late Gate", of Bill Belichick's turning away of 4 players for tardiness. I'm sure our rivals will turn this into, "There they go. Here comes the downhill slide." Right. Like their own teams have never had discipline problems. Funny thing about speaking out on those matters. Chances are they're living in a glass house. Adalius Thomas was benched for today because Belichick thought someone else could give them a better chance of winning. It could be a little extra discipline for being the only one of the "Late Four" who spoke out about the incident. Randy Moss, considered by many rivals to be a hopeless curmudgeon, did the right thing and went about his business, keeping his mouth shut. Discipline stays in the building.

At any rate, this is about our upcoming matchup with the Panthers. More after the jump.

With QB Matt Moore in for Jake Delhomme, the Panthers have to rely on their backup QB to matchup against a riled up New England Patriots team...in their own house. This won't be easy for Carolina, hopefully. After 2 heart wrenching losses on the road (the first, a dismantling by New Orleans and the second, a heartbreaker to division rival Miami) I'm betting on Belichick being aggravated and unloading on his players this past week.

Carolina is going to pound the rock with QB Matt Moore under center. Running back Jonathan Stewart is freight train on legs at 5-10 235 lbs. And 120 yards, even against Tampa Bay, is nothing to sneeze at. And New England is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game. It would make no sense for the Panthers, ranked 27th in the passing game, to air the ball out. Yup, pound the rock with their 3rd rated rushing offense.

On our side, Julius Peppers is going to be a problem. Whether he's motivated or not by a huge franchise paycheck this year, I think he'll be interviewing for a job today. He knows there was talk about him moving to the Patriots this season, but the price tag was just too high. Julius would also have to be thick as a brick to be unaware of our troubles putting together a consistent pass rush. Great pass rusher and a team who desperately needs a good pass rush... hmmm.

You can bet the Panthers have been watching game film, especially the Miami matchup. Shutdown Randy Moss and you take away the deep ball, for the most part. Yeah, there was that 81 yarder to Sam Aiken, but it's almost a forgone conclusion that Brady will try to force the ball to Randy at one time or another. We need to spread the ball around a LOT more. Of course Wes Welker will be one of the primary targets. But is Moss the right early look? Sam Aiken needs to be in the picture and I believe Benjamin Watson needs to play a big role in this game. He's been underutilized this year, but has delivered consistently when asked to. I've said many times in these stories that he's our secret weapon, but always seems to get few looks from Wonderboy. Bill, are you listening? Throw to "Big Ben"!!

We're playing at home, the team is fired up, and we need this win to keep Miami at a distance. I'll go into serious mourning if we lose another Division title to the Dolphins with a tie breaker.

Prediction: Patriots, 28-17.

New England Patriots in the RedZone, sponsored by ComCast

MaPatsFan — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:46:16 -0000

RedZone...bleh. We continue to struggle in the RedZone with a 47.06% success rate. As explained in previous entries, keep in mind that a TD outside of the 20, like Sam Aiken's 81 yarder against Miami, does not count towards RedZone numbers. Under 20 numbers are good when you want to know how a team performs in a "compressed" situation, when there's less room to maneuver. And, as you may already know, a field goal inside the 20 is a RedZone "Fail".

This past week against Miami, the biggest RedZone "Fail" was a Tom Brady pick in the right-hand corner of the end zone. Yet again, we find Brady forcing the ball to Randy Moss. 2nd down and goal-to-go, Brady lofts a pass to Moss that Miami CB Vontae Davis, 5 inches shorter than Moss, manages to pluck out of the air. a) the ball should've been thrown higher where the 6-4 Moss could out reach Davis or b) it should've been to Wes Welker or Benjamin Watson. How about pounding the rock? Any way, second guessing...

Quick Recap: Saints defeat Patriots, 38-17

MaPatsFan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 04:34:26 -0000

More photos » by Patrick Semansky - AP

What a surprise. A Patriots DB getting torched by a Saints receiver.

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I was confident, confident Tom Brady and the boys had what it would take to match up against the hot and undefeated New Orleans Saints. I was confident that we had what it would take to shutdown Drew Brees and his receivers. I was confident Bill Belichick knew more about the Saints than I did. Apparently, not that much more. Sean Payton and Drew Brees absolutely trashed this Patriots Defense.

More after the jump.

In one of the toughest games of the season, our New England Patriots made every mistake they could possibly make. Interceptions, O-line fails, lineup confusion, you name it. But the biggest mistakes of all were from our young secondary. Brees is very good at redirecting inexperienced players to a different part of the field and then gunning it to someone else, someone who beat coverage. This young secondary fell for all of Brees's tricks hook, line, and sinker.

On the Patriots, we seem to have 1 or 2 deadly targets: Randy Moss, sometimes Benjamin Watson, and sometimes Sam Aiken. Not the Saints. Brees was able to spread the ball to no fewer than 5 guys for touchdowns. That's silly. There was simply no coverage on the Saints receivers. Our young backfield simply got torched by a quality team. And there was almost no pressure on Brees, one of the fastest QB's in the backfield with a super quick release. No pressure + inexperienced backfield = embarrassing loss.

I now know how our '07 rivals felt.

The Big Easy...won't be. Patriots prepare for the Saints

MaPatsFan — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:51:25 -0000

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If you look at the nfl.com stats by team, the Saints make their mark in only 2 categories: 1st in Total Offense and 5th in Rushing Offense. That's not burning up the field. A closer look also reveals they give up a lot of yardage and points on defense. So, how is it that they win games if their defense is giving up so much? The answer is offense. Drew Brees and his collection of weapons score a lot of points, to the tune of a league #1 36.9 on average.

So how can the Patriots be successful in New Orleans?

This is a huge game for both teams. To be somewhat egotistical, it's most likely the toughest game on the Saints' schedule. It's certainly the toughest of their remaining 6 matchups. A victory against NE would potentially legitimize the Saints as a "for real" team. From a New England perspective, our Patriots have struggled on the road against quality teams. We're 1-3 on the road with our only W at Wembley (you're not counting Tampa Bay as a quality team, are you?). A statement game for both teams.

As mentioned above, the Saints are not burning up the field in any one area except total offense. However, I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that they remind me of Patriots teams from the "Golden Years", the Super Bowl winning seasons. What the Saints DO have is solid team play across the board; just as there's only 1 or 2 areas where they statistically excel, conversely there's few areas where they're lacking. They seem to cover all of the bases...all of the time. So, what are the keys to coming out ahead of this franchise?

Drew Brees - This answer always pains me because it's so formulaic, but it's very true: take away Drew Brees. Remember how successful our defense was at Indy in the first half? That was from consistent pressure on Peyton Manning. the same is true of just about every quarterback as well; consistently put someone in his backfield, and Brees will have less time to weigh his options.
Saints' Backfield - Bush is having an incredible season. Like his team, he is not burning up the charts in any one area, but he's a constant threat. Much like our Kevin Faulk, Bush can hurt you in so many different ways - his yardage rushing is almost identical to his passing yardage. He's listed as questionable in the injury report, by I doubt that has any credence. However, Bush is not the only weapon in the backfield. Much like the Patriots, there's no clear star but there's dangerous ones.
Passing Attack - Our New England Patriots are 6th against the pass for average yards. That's not bad considering the defensive backfield of 2008 was a joke, in my opinion. Taking away Brees' targets is paramount to winning this game. However, he has so many. Marques Colston at 6-4 225 lbs is a serious threat to defensive backs; not only does he have the height, but he has the strength and poundage to win against CB's and safeties. Then there's TE Jeremy Shockey. Jettisoned by the Giants, he's found a home in New Orleans and appears to be thriving.
RedZone Defense - New Orleans is 5th in the league at 65.3%. Unfortunately, New England is 28th in RedZone defense. We let our opponents score 65% of the time inside the 20. Ugghh...
Score more points - As basic as that sounds, it's a classic Belichick answer to how a team wins a game. New Orleans is a high scoring team and to combat that, New England has to keep pace. That means throwing the ball A LOT. NO will be smart enough to take away Randy Moss. Sure, Wes Welker is super dangerous at moving the chains, but a guy like Moss puts points on the board. With Moss most likely covered, who do we go to? As I'm fond of saying, Benjamin Watson, Julian Edelman, and Sam Aiken. Let's not forget screens to our running backs; Sammy Morris (if he plays) can be successful as an option and Kevin Faulk is the master of this backfield at that particular scenario.

What are you keys to winning? Is it any one of three phases? Play well on all phases? Any player in particular that has to step up or an NO guy we need to neutralize?

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. New England Patriots Pass Offense

John B — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:32:12 -0000

by Michael Perez - AP

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Last time the Jets shut down Tom Brady with non stop pressure. That's been their formula for success against Brady in the past, sending men from all angles, confusing his protection, and forcing him to throw early. It's the only way to beat an offense like this. If a quarterback this good has time, he'll find a window. If receivers this good have time, they'll eventually get open.

This kind of matchup favors the Pats. The Jets probably won't change much from what was successful the first time. Why would they? New England has the ability to adjust. It's funny because in the past, New England adjusted to New York's blitzing of Brady by the formula they tried in the first game, spreading the field and getting the ball out quickly. That won't work because the Jets will just send more men than blockers once again. At least one guy will run free to Brady and force an early throw. This time I think the Pats leave in extra blockers. As long as they leave Brady standing, he can find somebody.

In the first game, Darrelle Revis shut down Randy Moss with very little safety help. The Jets played a lot of cover zero and cover one. When he had help, he didn't need it. The one area the Pats found success was working the middle with Julian Edelman, a shifty slot receiver. Wes Welker will be in the lineup this time. He and Edelman will be working the middle a lot. We'll also see a lot of quick throws and screens to Welker and let him make plays. To get to Brady, the Jets are going to have to ask a lot out of Lito Sheppard, Donald Strickland, and Dwight Lowery. If the Jets are going to win, these guys in particular are going to have to cover and tackle well.

I also think the Pats will look to exploit Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker and test out Eric Smith. Eric will be playing Jim Leonhard's role now, not working underneath and as a blitzer in subpackages. We'll also see Kevin Faulk on a lot of screens out of the backfield to try and catch blitzers overpursuing.

One thing to watch on the line is the play of rookie Sebastian Vollmer, who replaced the injured Matt Light about a month ago. Vollmer has held up exceptionally well against some of the best rushers in the game like Dwight Freeney last week. Light had been the weak link on the line. The interior guys, Steven Neal, Dan Koppen, and Logan Mankins, as well as right tackle Nick Kaczur have been good in pass protection. The Jets should focus again on overload blitzes. It's going to be tough to consistently win matchups against these guys. Just overwhelm them to one side and hope the protection can't slide quickly enough.

Focusing on Jersey: Patriots take on Jets this Sunday

MaPatsFan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:16:01 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

Somehow he looks taller than he really is

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Rivalries are great things. They pit one team against another and, in our cases, one fanbase against the other. Head writers from our AFC East blogs always get a little "what about us" when I go into depth about the Patriots rivalry with the Colts and, to an extent, they have a point. Division rivalries are usually a bit more geographic, hence more tangible in a sense. The closer a city or state is, the more likelihood of having traveled there. Aside from geography, we play the other 3 teams in our division twice a year and typically have to get through them to make the playoffs. You know, win the division? This hasn't been a problem in past years. In fact, New England owned the division from 2003-2007, up until last year when the 11-5 Dolphins were crowned AFC East Division Champions.

The Indianapolis Colts rivalry stems from a number of things, but 2 come to mind: both teams possess 2 of the best quarterbacks to have ever played the game and our teams typically have to contend with each other for playoff consideration. After Sunday's heart wrenching loss, there's not much else we can do but focus on the rest of the season and concentrate on taking the division. In the cross hairs for this coming Sunday are the New York Jets.

Aside from the fact that Bostonians typically have an irrational dislike of New Yorkers and vice versa, there's an enormous amount of history between these 2 franchises. After losing Super Bowl XXXI in 1996 to Green Bay, then New England head coach Bill Parcells, still in the last year of a 5 year contract with Kraft, took the head coaching job with the Jets. As compensation, the Jets handed the Patriots a first round draft pick. NE defensive coordinator Bill Belichick, and most of the coaching staff, went to New York with Bill Parcells.

Belichick was being groomed to assume head coaching duties for the Jets and when Parcells retired from coaching in 1999, Hoodie was the heir apparent. The next day, Belichick took the podium and issued his now infamous resignation, "I resign as HC of the NYJ". Belichick later accepted the head coaching job with the New England Patriots. The Jets claimed he was still under contract and demanded compensation. Then Commissioner Paul Tagliabue agreed and NE gave up a first round draft pick to New York.

The rest is history.

This year, NE still sits atop the division, but with a tenuous lead over the Miami Dolphins. At 6-3, our Patriots MUST continue to distance themselves from the 5-5 Dolphins. After our last minute loss to Indy, New York looks like a likely target for a drubbing. And head coach Rex Ryan is making it easy. Swagger is one thing, but outright trash talk will get your statements taped to someone's locker.

"I’ll just put it this way: Having Revis allows us to do things that most people don’t do, or have the courage for," Ryan said. "Man coverage. Man-up, and say, ‘Here we are.’ Now, Kerry Rhodes covers a lot of ground. So what may look like cover-2, because of the range Kerry has, might’ve been cover-1. Hey, all I can say is, we’ve got the best corner in the league and I don’t think there’s any dispute about that."

Best corner in the league? Revis is very good, don't get me wrong, but best in the league? If so we're happy to seem him taken out of the game all day covering Randy Moss. Tom Brady will simply carve up the Jets secondary with Wes Welker, Benjamin Watson, and Julian Edelman. Moss as a decoy? It's worked before.

Back to the division. After a fairly hot start, Rex and his boys have gotten banged around a bit. After going 3-0 to start the season, they managed a 1-5 record since, there only win in the last 6 games against the dreadful Oakland Raiders. Even Jacksonville and Buffalo took them to task, so it's interesting to see how Rex's swagger has dulled a bit and he's really only spouting about player matchups.

Ryan will need to remember this is a very different Patriots than he faced in Week 2. Brady's shaken off a lot of rust, Welker is back, Julian Edelman has distinguished himself as a legitimate "Welker Jr.", and there's significantly more film on Ryan's defensive strategies than in the beginning of the year. Oh, did I mention the loss to the Colts? I think Belichick is going to work to hang as many points on the Jets as he can humanly muster. If he hits triple digits, I don't think there's many that will cry foul. 59 points on the hapless Titans was roundly condemned by rival fans who know squat about football. Even THEY won't have an issue if we hang a hundred on Jabba the Rex.

Game Preview: Patriots @ Colts

MaPatsFan — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:00:31 -0000

by Stephan Savoia - AP

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Here we are. Week 10 and it's the Colts. This is a critical game, but not because we want to beat up on one of our biggest rivals. Unless both teams implode in the second half of the season, it's a forgone conclusion that they'll win their respective divisions. What's the first thing looked at when determining home field advantage in a playoff scenario? Head to head record. If seeding works out and we happen to face Indy in January, we want them in Foxboro. Take Peyton Manning out of his dome and put him in the snow, that's what I way.

But there's still the emotional part of beating Indy. We're 2-1 in the post season against Peyton and the boys, but we're 1-4 overall in our last 5 matchups. As a fan, me no likey. At about 11pm ET, I really want to see this face:

That's Fivehead's sad, pouty face. That's the face I want to see. But it's going to take a lot to get there. We're in their house and nothing gets a crowd of Indy fans going more than the Patriots playing their team in THEIR house. At least everyone will be warm and dry; it helps to have a roof 8 games a year.

If you're a believer in Football Outsiders' DVOA analysis, the Patriots are simply a better team overall. There's a lot that goes into DVOA and if you're a stats geek you should read the explanation, but in general, the Patriots are more efficient. Breaking it down a bit, overall the Pats are ranked 1 overall, 1 on offense, and 8 on defense. The Colts are 3 overall, 5 on offense, and 6 on defense. Statistics are fun, but they can't predict much of anything come game time. Even if Indy has struggled to beat what could be considered mediocre teams, they've found a way to win. However, the Patriots are better than every team they've faced.

Keys to winning against the Colts in the Lube? To be very Belichick-ian, "Score more points than the other team."

RedZone Efficiency - It's not a stretch to say that our first ranked offense, based on DVOA, will be able to drive down the field against the Colts' sixth ranked defense. The issue is 3 vs. 6. I only want Stephen Gostkowski kicking extra points...and lots of them.
Indy's inexperienced DB - There's a lot of young talent in the Colts' defensive backfield. They're doing pretty good for what they're contending with, but I think Tom Brady and crew should be picking on them mercilessly. Wes Welker is practically unstoppable underneath, but that's low yardage, chain moving stuff. We need to get Randy Moss matched up against a younger, weaker DB. Bob Sanders is out, but Melvin Bullitt is no slouch. More stuff against the young CB's is the key.
Keep Manning off the field - I always hate this simplistic answer to the "How do we stop them" question, but it's true. He's their on-field offensive coordinator and is one of the best in the league at adjusting to defenses. He's especially good at pacing a game they way HE wants it paced. Take him out of the picture and Indy will have a long day.
Smart defensive play - As stated above, Manning can adjust to a defensive look very quickly. Setup too early and Manning will audible another play. Setup too late and you could be caught flatfooted. If the Patriots can a) have a generic enough defensive plan and/or b) give Manning looks and adjust on the fly, they'll do well.
Takeaway Manning's safety valve - Many will say Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are Manning's most dangerous weapons. Like Moss, they are the deep ball threats. But, what if we eliminated Peyton's checkdown, his "third receiver"? Brandon McGowan has been given the job of covering Dallas Clark, the most prolific TE in the league to date. Calling him a pure TE and statistically matching him up in that category is a little ridiculous (more a TE/WR), but my point is remove that safety valve and Manning has nowhere to go. That is, as long as Wayne and Garcon aren't roaming the field at will.
Benjamin Watson - Watson is very well known to the Colts, but the Patriots have been using him sparingly, almost as a sneak attack. Defenses seem to forget about him and pretty soon, they get burned. Indy knows enough to blanket Welker and Moss, but they'll simply run out of personnel when we spread the field. Maybe not as prolific as Clark, Watson can be just as dangerous.
Ground game - We need Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk to step up their game a bit. Indy is ranked 14th against the run so we should have some success their. I would also like to see Morris and Faulk used successfully as passing options. Like I mentioned above, Indy knows to take away Welker and Moss; Brady needs choices if we're to be successful.

That's it for now. What are your thoughts? What are your keys to success? Have at it.

Silly untruths about the 2009 Patriots at the mid-season point

BigBlueShoe — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:12:04 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

about 1 month ago: New England Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo (51) celebrates a stop as Miami Dolphins center Jake Grove (64) and quarterback Chad Henne look on during the fourth quarter of New England's 27-17 win in an NFL football game in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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Yesterday, we had the unthruths about the 2009 Colts. Now, we close out with untruths about the 2009 Patriots.

False

Tom Brady will take three years to fully recover from his injury, which means that he won't be "great" for a while now.

True

This year, Brady is completing 65% of his passes for 2364 yards (third best in AFC) and has 16 TDs to 5 INTS (same TD to INT ratio as Peyton Manning). Early this season, Brady did look "out of sync" with his receivers, and the Patriots are lucky they did not lose their first game of the year to the Buffalo Bills. However, Brady has recovered his form and is playing very well. In fact, it is shaping up to be one of his best statistical seasons ever.

Much of the "it will take three years" talk comes from using Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer as an example. Palmer suffered a somewhat equally horrible knee injury to Brady's in 2006, and it is only now that Palmer looks to have returned to form. This example is very misleading and flawed though. Palmer was "ready" to play the next season after his injury, but the Bengals roster in 2007 was not the Patriots roster in 2009. Flaws in the Cincy roster, bad coaching, and poor ownership factored more into the Bengals struggling since their last playoff appearance; not Palmer's injury.

False

The Patriots have lost too many important players to be a contender anymore.

True

Gone are Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, and Richard Seymour. These players were the foundation of three championships. However, new players like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather have the Patriots allowing only 14.5 ppg (#2 behind the Colts). So, statistically, this is one of the better defense the Patriots have ever had. When you have Tom Brady, and you give him a defense that is only allowing roughly 2 TDs a game, you ARE a contender.

False

The Patriots basically have only two receiving weapons on offense: Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Double those two guys and you should be able to shut down this offense.

True

Um, if things were that easy, the Patriots would be 0-8 now. They aren't. When teams double those two WRs, tight end Benjamin Watson has stepped up and made some big plays. He is on his way to a career year, currently with 19 receptions for 271 yards and 4 TDs.

Like with all great teams, lots of silly, incorrect information gets thrown out there and just accepted as fact (like when people say Peyton Manning "struggles" against 3-4 defenses). When morons spew this kind of lazy garbage, it is up to us bloggers to kick them in the nuts, laugh in their face, and yell "WRONG!"