SB Nation - Anthony Becht

Arizona Cardinals Release TE Byrd, Sign LB Monty Beisel

Andrew602 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:31:29 -0000

One of Beisel's rare appearances as a Chief. Beisel only played in three games and was released. He looks better in Cardinal red anyway.

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The Arizona Cardinals have released their 4th string tight end Dominique Byrd today, and signed former Cardinal linebacker Monty Beisel.

Searching for depth at linebacker – especially after Gerald Hayes and Chike Okeafor missing games with back problems and having the inexperienced Reggie Walker and Ali Highsmith on the roster – the Cardinals brought back veteran Monty Beisel today. The Cards wanted Beisel when his contract expired after last season , but Beisel instead followed Todd Haley to Kansas City. Then Beisel was cut after just three games and has been searching for a job since. He had been in contact with the Cardinals in an attempt to come back since then.

To make room on the roster, the Cards decided they couldn’t hang on to four tight ends any longer. They released Dominique Byrd, who had yet to appear active in a regular-season game this season. With Anthony Becht and Ben Patrick taking hold of the two tight end spots on game day and Stephen Spach a more accomplished blocker than Byrd, Byrd was the odd man out.

via azcardinals.com(Urban)

Beisel, an ROTB favorite, was a special teams ace last year and should provide veteran depth to a linebacking corps that has been banged up the last few weeks. In the three years he was with Arizona, Beisel appeared in 40 games and registered 78 tackles. The Cardinals signed linebacker Pago Togafau and defensive end Jason Banks to the practice squad, both also being former Cardinals. They released FB Jed Collins and DT Antoine Holmes to make room.

The Saturday Sim: Cardinals-Rams

Andrew602 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:23:04 -0000

Doh!

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We're at another Saturday Sim, in a simulation between the Arizona Cardinals and the St. Louis Rams, and let me tell you, pay attention to this one. It was a very close game and the Cardinals had their way of disappointing here. I couldn't post last week guys because I didn't have time. It takes some time out of your Friday night to watch a fake football game ; ). Anyways, before I break down the simulation, for those of you who aren't familiar with this, I simulate a game between the Cardinals and their opponent for that given week on the popular game known as Madden. I set it for All Madden difficulty, 8 minute quarters, with a 15 second run off. Then I post the results here. Let's see how the game went.

First Quarter

-The Rams receive the ball and begin running. On the second run of the game, Adrian Wilson forces a fumble and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie scoops it up to return it 42 yards for the touchdown. Cardinals lead 7-0.

- The Rams run more but eventually punt to the Cardinals. The Cards offense struggles to start the quarter and face several three and outs. The Rams march down the field with Steven Jackson leading the way. The Cardinals can't stop the run. At the 1 yard line, Samkon Gado runs in the touchdown to tie the game at 7. Key holding penalties on Mike Gandy and Levi Brown end several drives for the Cardinals. Game tied 7-7.

Second Quarter

- The Rams start the second quarter by bringing a lot of pressure, and the Cardinals are forced to punt. On the Rams next drive, they keep the running game going, but are stopped and settle for a 56 yard field goal. Rams lead 10-7.

- The Cardinals are stopped on their next drive because of another holding call, which is hurting them at this point. The Rams get the ball back and are setting up the pass by running. The Cardinals sniff out several runs and the Rams settle for another field goal. 13-7 Rams lead.

- The Cardinals get the ball back with under 2 minutes remaining in the half. They run the hurry up, and Anquan Boldin catches a big sideline pass that takes them down to the 6 yard line. Early Doucet and Jason Wright drop two passes in the end zone and the Cardinals settle for a field goal. Rams lead 13-10 at end of half.

Third Quarter

-The Cardinals get the ball at the half and immediately start passing a lot. Steve Breaston is getting a lot of looks on the drive but Anquan catches a big 36 yard pass that takes the Cardinals into the red zone. Beanie Wells carries a defender 5 yards on his back, something I've never seen before in Madden!! Reggie Wells gets called for the hold which pushes them back and the Cardinals settle for a field goal. Game tied 13-13.

- The Cardinals stop the Rams next few drives by stacking the box to stopping Steven Jackson. Clark Haggans is having a good day, registering 7 tackles all on Jackson. The Cardinals stall on the final drive of the quarter and punt to the Rams.

Fourth Quarter

- The fourth quarter is the same, as the Cardinals continue to stop the run. When the Rams are forced to pass, Adrian Wilson picks off Marc Bulger. The Cardinals can't take advantage of the turnover, and Ben Graham booms a punt to the Rams 4 yard line. The Rams get away from their goal line, but Bulger throws another pick, this time to Karlos Dansby. In the red zone, Beanie Wells second effort pays off and he runs the ball in 5 yards. Cardinals lead 20-13.

- Here's where the game goes down hill with less then two minutes left. The Cardinals stop the Rams who punt back to the Cards. The Cardinals try to run the clock out, but go nowhere. Beanie Wells fumbles, but recovers the ball himself. Wright gets a carry, who doesn't get the first down, but a face mask on the Rams gives the Cardinals the first down. Game over right? No. Wells gets the ball again and fumbles again!! The Rams recover with 46 seconds left. Jackson catches a wide open pass and takes it to the Cards 10 yard line. The Cardinals force a 4th and inches, and the Rams pass the ball!! Samkon Gado is wide open and runs it in for the touchdown!! Game tied 20-20.

- The Cardinals get the ball back with 26 second left. Warner finds Breaston for 20 yards, then Anthony Becht wide open over the middle another 23 yards. The Cardinals call timeout at the rams 28 yard line. The Cardinals go for the win but Rackers hits off the upright!! Overtime. Game tied 20-20.

Overtime

- The Cardinals get the ball and march down into Rams territory. And just like before, Beanie Wells fumbles the ball away! Ken Whisenhunt is screaming on the sideline and why shouldn't he be? Put in Tim Hightower! The Rams get into Cards territory, but are stopped. The Rams go for the win which would be a 59 yard field goal. It has the distance, but hits the upright!! Cards ball.

- The Cardinals don't run this time, throwing to Larry Fitzgerald for 2 key first downs. In Rams territory, they are stopped and go for a long field goal. What a surprise, wide right!!! The Rams get the ball and get back into Cards territory. Going for the stop, in Cardinal-fashion, Mike Karney is wide open and streaks down the field for a 40 yard touchdown with Antrel Rolle chasing him. Rams win the game 26-20. Wow.

The Stats

	Cardinals	Rams
Total	308	290
Pass	265	207
Rush	53	83
Turnovers	2	3
Third Down	4-12(33%)	3-10(30%)
TOP	23:18	17:44

	comp/att	Yards	TD	INT	Rate
Warner	24/34(70%)	261	0	0	92.9
Bulger	14/22(63%)	207	2	2	86.7

	Att	Yards	Avg	TD/Fumble
Wells	18	50	2.7	1/3
Jackson	26	85	3.2	0/1

	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Fitzgerald	4	49	12.2	0
Boldin	4	65	16.2	0
Breaston	4	58	14.5	0
McMichael	5	43	8.6	0
Jackson	2	53	26.5	0
Karney	1	40	40.0	1

Final Thought -

It had to be the craziest game I've ever watched on Madden and if this happens in real life, I'll likely end up in the hospital. The Cardinals made the comeback in the second half and had the game locked up. Beanie Wells 3 fumbles killed the game, along with Neil Rackers inability to kick a game-winner. The Cardinals also finished with 8 penalties for 85 yards. I doubt this will happen on Sunday but it's interesting that Madden made it a very close game. What are your thoughts on the sim?

2009 Statistical Rankings: 49er Players Through Week 2

Florida Danny — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:00:54 -0000

On Wednesday, we here at Niners Nation (NN) introduced a new weekly post presenting Football Outsiders' (FO) team rankings according to defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Hope you enjoyed it, and hope you continue to read it for the next 15 (or more?) weeks. It turns out that FO also publishes player DVOA stats, as well as advanced stats measuring the performance of each team's OL, DEF front seven, and secondary. These stats are what I'll be presenting today, and will continue to present each Thursday or Friday during the regular season (and playoffs?).

If you don't know what DVOA is or how to interpret it, consult Wednesday's post. It's got my English-language answers for these relatively complicated questions. For today's post, and beware it's a long one, I'll be explaining FO's player stats as I present them.

After the jump, I'll discuss the player stats for the 49ers' QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, OL, DL, and DBs...

Before I begin, I just want to alert everyone to something that I'm sure would come up in the comments were I not to address it in the article. Basically, I'm only going to present stats for individual 49ers that have enough passes (15), carries (16), or targets (6 for WR, 3 for TE) to qualify for FO's most valid individual statistics, DVOA and DYAR. Below the relevant "yardage opportunity" thresholds, these statistics can be wildly erratic from week to week, and - frankly - aren't as trustworthy or enlightening as I'd like them to be. Let me make clear though that this would be my opinion about any statistic, as all statistics are negatively impacted by extremely small sample size. Furthermore, I'd still take FO's small-sample stats over the popular NFL stats because, although both may be flawed when sample size is low, at least FO's stats are adjusted for opponent (after Week 3), game situation, and other important factors.

With that said, it's on to the stats and rankings...

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Shaun Hill's stats through 2 games (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

DYAR	Rank	Passes	Actual Pass Yards	Yds Per Pass	Rank
-20	31	65	296	4.55	32
DVOA	Rank		EYds	EYds Per Pass	Rank
-16.5%	30		278	4.28	31

Before I discuss this table, let me explain what Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Effective Yards (EYds) mean. I've done this before on NN, but I'll do it again for the sake of clarification and NN newbie introduction.

For DYAR, FO first determined - via statistical analysis of NFL historical data - a "replacement level" of performance for each position that represents the number of yards an average NFL "backup" gains at that position. DYAR compares a player's yardage total to this "replacement level," and, as such, represents the difference between a player's yardage total and the yardage total that would be expected if he was replaced by an average backup at his position. In other words, DYAR answers the question that's often thrown around when it's time to argue about the MVP, "What would happen to Team X's offense if Player A got hurt and was replaced by Player B, who's an average backup?" In this sense, DYAR is a measure of a player's value to his team's offense, with positive numbers meaning his offense would be worse off yardage-wise without him. Now, obviously some backups are not average at all (See Sproles, Darren), so I'm using the MVP analogy in the name of education, not exact methodological precision. The purpose of DYAR is to compare players at the same position in a statistically valid way, not to settle the MVP debate. Therefore, it's important to realize that FO's use of a replacement level - something that's also done in sabermetrics - is aimed at creating a trustworthy statistic (by standardizing, and providing a baseline for starter performance) rather than providing fodder for sports talk radio.

For EYds, FO simply adjusts each players yardage totals based on the same factors for which it adjusts their DVOA statistic (i.e., opponent, game situation, etc.). In other words, EYds is basically DVOA without the whole "play success" determination that I described on Wednesday. This is intuitive because both are grounded in the concept that some yards (e.g., rushing yards on 3^rd and 20 against DET) are easier to gain than others (e.g., rushing yards on 3^rd and 2 against PIT), and therefore that high-difficulty yards should be worth more (i.e., are more efficient) than low-difficulty yards. Because this has the effect of standardizing (aka evening out) game situations for all players at the same position, EYds tells you how many yards a player would be expected to have if he played in average game situations. When a player's EYds is higher than his actual yards, it means that (a) he's been playing in game situations that are more difficult than average, and (b) he's actually been more efficient than his actual yards would seem to suggest. In contrast, the opposite is true when EYds is lower than actual yards.

Just to make EYds as clear as possible, here's a quick example:

Thomas Jones runs for 10 yards on 3^rd and 1 against TEN this week, while Willis McGahee runs for 10 yards on 3^rd and 10 against CLE this week. Both Jones and McGahee ended up with 10 rushing yards according to the NFL. However, we all know that Jones' 10 yards were more valuable than McGahee's because TEN is the top-ranked run DEF, whereas CLE is the 31^st-ranked run DEF. Now, let's say that, on 3^rd and 1, TEN's run DEF is 25% better than average (i.e., each rushing yard on 3^rd and 1 against TEN's DEF is worth 125%), whereas CLE's run DEF is 25% worse than average (i.e., each rushing yard on 3^rd and 1 against CLE's DEF is worth 75%).

Given these defensive situational stats, Jones' 10-yard run would have been expected to go 12.5 yards against an average run DEF (10 x 12.5 = 12.5), while McGahee's run would have been expected to go 7.5 yards (10 x .75 = 7.5). In other words, Jones' EYds for his run was 12.5, whereas McGahee's EYds for his run was 7.5. Therefore, the fact that Jones' EYds (12.5) is higher than his actual yards (10) accurately shows that (a) Jones' run was in a more difficult game situation, and (b) Jones was more efficient than McGahee. Notice also how going only by actual yards, which is what the NFL provides and pundits always refer to, our conclusion about which RB is better would have incorrectly been, "they're equals." This is precisely the major benefit of relying on EYds instead of actual yards.

OK, enough with the statistics lessons...

By any valid measure, Hill's value and effectiveness through 2 games compares pretty unfavorably to the other starting NFL QBs. With respect to his DYAR, the 49ers' pass OFF would actually be 20 yards better through 2 games if he had been replaced with an average NFL backup. Unfortunately, the Niners don't appear to have an average NFL backup on their roster, at least that's what I think. The kicker is that, even if you consider Alex Smith to be an average backup, Hill's DYAR suggests an improvement of only 20 yards were Smith to be elevated to the starting lineup. And one more thing about Hill's DYAR just to drive the point home: The only starting QBs that are less valuable (i.e., have a lower DYAR) than Hill so far this year are Brady Quinn (aka "1 TD guy"), Jake Delhomme (aka "6 turnovers guy), and Matt Stafford (aka "8 days on the job" guy). That's quite impressive company, indeed.

With respect to EYds, Hill's are lower than his actual passing yards, which means that his meager production has unfortunately come in situations easier than average. Furthermore, if we compare Hill to a starter who has similar actual passing yards through 2 games, we find that he's actually been less effective than - gasp - Marc Bulger, who has 66 more EYds than actual passing yards (355 vs. 289).

Of course, all of the above stats are affected by the fact that Jimmy Raye is not Sean Payton and Isaac Bruce is not Marques Colston. In other words, SF's OFF doesn't require much in the way of passing yardage, and SF's WRs aren't exactly Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens when it comes to yards after catch.

The latter factor is something we can't really account for, but the former is accounted for by the per-pass stats in the table. As you can see, Hill has thrown for 4.55 yards per pass, which is pretty abysmal when you consider that the average is 6.25 among the 35 QBs with 15 passes or more. What's worse though is Hill's 4.28 EYds per pass, which is over 30% lower than the qualified-QB average. Not to mention that the #1 QB, Drew Brees, has an EYds/Pass that's triple that of Hill's (12.83).

RUNNING BACKS

Among Niner RBs, only Frank Gore qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 14 runs). Here they are:

DYAR	Rank	Runs	Actual Run Yards	Yds Per Run	Rank
24	13	38	237	6.24	5
DVOA	Rank		EYds	EYds Per Run	Rank
7.6%	15		169	4.45	17

Looking at DYAR, Gore has been more valuable than all but 12 RBs, the most valuable of which has been Marion Barber (DYAR = 75). If we translate Gore's DYAR into DYAR per run, we see that replacing him with an average backup would cost the Niners' run OFF over half of a yard per carry. Of course, the question is whether or not Glen Coffee is an average backup. Based on the preseason, you'd think he's above average. However, because (a) preseason stats don't mean anything (See Clayton, Thomas; sorry Ninjames), and (b) he's a rookie, you can't be so sure of that above-average status.

Regarding EYds, Gore's are considerably lower than his actual run yards, which means that his production has come in easier-than-average situations. I have a sneaking suspicion that this is due to his pair of 80-yard TDs against the Seahawks, which both came in a relatively easy running situation (1^st & 10 with the Niners up 3 points). I can't know this for certain though because I'm not privy to the situation-specific NFL averages that FO uses to determine whether the difficulty of a particular game situation. However, it's interesting to note that the RB immediately ahead of Gore in actual run yards, Chris Johnson with 254, also seems to have had his EYds (145) take a massive hit thanks to 2 long TD runs in Week 2, albeit in (intuitively) easier game situations. Specifically, Johnson's 57-yard TD run came on 3^rd & 19 with the score tied at 0, and his 91-yard TD run came on 3^rd & 10 with the score tied at 24. Running the ball on 3^rd & Long with the score tied against HOU's run DEF sure seems like about as easy a game situation as you can get to run the ball. Although this is most likely why his yards-to-EYds difference is even larger than Gore's, I still think both of their differences are due in major part to the length of their TD runs because, subtracting 25%, for example, from an 80-yard "easy" run (or 20 yards) does much more damage to a RB's EYds than subtracting 25% from a 20-yard "easy" run (or 5 yards); 15 more yards of damage to be exact.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Among Niner WRs - and this shouldn't surprise you - only Isaac Bruce qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 5 targets). Incidentally, you should know that, for WRs and TEs, FO analyzes all plays in which a player was the intended receiver of a pass, not just the passes he actually catches. For your convenience, I've included "Catch Rate" in the table, which is simply Receptions divided by Targets. OK, here are Bruce's stats:

DYAR	Rank	Targets	Actual Rec Yards	Yds Per Target	Rank
-2	55	16	109	6.81	46
DVOA	Rank	Catch Rate	EYds	EYds Per Target	Rank
-14.3%	55	50.0%	99	6.19	54

According to DYAR, Bruce could be replaced by an average backup and the 49ers wouldn't lose much in the way of receiving yards. Unlike the situation with Gore, the 49ers likely do have an average backup or two on their roster. The question becomes, "Does Bruce's experience, leadership, and rapport with Hill make him more valuable than the average WR backup with which you'd replace him; say Brandon Jones or - gasp - a signed Michael Crabtree?" At this point, I'd say the answer is probably, "Yes, Bruce is more valuable right now."

I think the take home message of this table is that the 49ers' pass OFF doesn't have a #1 WR. Alternatively, you might say that anyone who thinks the 49ers have a #1 WR is sorely mistaken - at least through 2 games. I say this because Bruce, the Niners' nominal #1 WR, actually ranks as a middle-of-the-pack #2 WR according to every stat in the table. Now, as was the case with Hill, he's being affected by Raye's offensive philosophy. As evidence for this Raye effect, I'll echo something Mike Sando reported recently: Only twice has Raye been the offensive coordinator (OC) of a 1,000-yard WR, and only twice has one of his WRs had 65 catches or more. Interestingly enough, Bruce is on pace for a 64-catch, 872-yard season. Coincidence? I think not.

TIGHT ENDS

Among Niner TEs, only Vernon Davis qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 2 targets). Here they are:

DYAR	Rank	Targets	Actual Rec Yards	Yds Per Target	Rank
0	31	13	72	5.54	34
DVOA	Rank	Catch Rate	EYds	EYds Per Target	Rank
-7.7%	31	53.8%	61	4.69	32

All hail your 49ers' 2006 1^st-round pick! The 31^st-most valuable TE in a 32-team league! Seriously, though, there are two OFF positions that were poised to benefit when Raye replaced Mike Martz as OC: RB and TE. After all, Tony Gonzalez made his bones when Raye was in KC. Not to mention the fact that Martz had the perennial nobodies like Jeff Robinson, Roland Williams, Ernie Conwell, Brandon Manumaleuna, and Dan Campbell manning the TE position during his tenures in STL and DET. And yet, VD's 2-game "renaissance" consists of vaulting from 37^th in DYAR last year to 31^st this year.

To be fair, ARI and SEA have two of the better sets of LBs and Ss in the NFL, so it might be the case that VD's stats will improve when FO incorporates opponent adjustments after Week 3. Maybe, maybe not; we'll just have to wait and see. I wouldn't hold my breath though. The bottom line is that the 49ers have a seemingly above-average backup in Delanie Walker, so they might actually benefit from starting him over VD. Whatever the case may be, it's getting awfully close to "fish or cut bait" time for the guy in the fuchsia shirt.

Here he is soliciting your vote for the poll:

via blogs.orlandosentinel.com

OFFENSIVE LINE

For the sake of brevity, I'm not going to explain FO's methodology behind their stats for OLs and DEF front sevens. You can find their thorough explanation here. Rather, I'll just tell you that, in the next table, the following stats, are interpreted in the following ways:

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) - Run yards per RB carry (up to 10 per carry) that are attributable to the OL. This is a measure of OL run-blocking performance, with higher numbers meaning better OL play.
Power Success Rate - % of runs that are successful on 3^rd/4^th Down & 2 or Less (i.e., ones that result in a 1^st down or TD). This is another measure of OL run-blocking performance, with higher %s meaning better OL play.
Stuffed Rate - % of RB carries that gain 0 or negative yardage. This is another measure of OL run-blocking performance, with lower %s meaning better OL play.
Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR) - Sacks per pass attempt. This is a measure of OL pass-blocking performance, with lower %s meaning better OL play.

Each of these stats has been adjusted for game situation, with all stats except ASR also having been adjusted for OFF formation because some formations produce more OL-reliant rushing yards than others. As with other FO stats I've presented over the past 2 days, opponent adjustments won't kick in until after Week 3. OK, here are the 49ers' OL stats through 2 games:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
2.51	31	50.0%	25	10.0%	29
Actual Yds Per RB Carry	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
5.20	5	24.0%	23	12.1%	30

Let's start with pass-blocking. Yeah, not so good. According to their actual sack rate, Hill is getting sacked about once every 8 times he drops back to pass; good (bad?) for 30^th in the NFL. According to ASR, the picture's a little rosier, but still not pretty: game situations have accounted for between 1 and 2 total sacks thus far this season, meaning that the OL is actually pass blocking better than what basic NFL stats would otherwise indicate (ask me in the comments if you want to know how I came up with this). Of course, surrendering 6 or 7 sacks in 60+ dropbacks isn't going to cut it in the long run (long pass?...sorry, had to).

In terms of run blocking, it sure looks like the Niners' OL isn't doing it very well. To begin, only half of SF's yards per RB carry can be attributable to the OL, a stat that's no doubt affected by Gore's twin 80-yard TD runs. In other words, outside of those 2 runs, in which the lion's share of the yardage was thanks to Gore's breakaway speed, the SF run OFF has been the proverbial 3 yards and a cloud of dust. More proof of the OL's lackluster run-blocking performance through 2 games is their relative inability to (a) pick up 1^st downs on short-yardage runs, and (b) prevent DEF penetration for stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. These conclusions are based on the OL's power success rate and stuffed rate.

Below is a chart displaying the OL's directional run-blocking performance (click to enlarge):

Looking at the top of the chart, you can see the 49ers are running the ball predominately up the middle and behind RT. Keeping in mind that the NFL standard for teams with a right-handed QB is to have their better run blockers on the right side of the line and their better pass blockers on the left side of the line, the Niners' preference for middle-right runs is in the top quartile of an already middle-right run-heavy league. It's also interesting to note - not to mention very peculiar - that SF hasn't the run the ball to the outside right at all in their first 2 games.

With respect to directional ALY, notice how inept the 49ers' OL has been on runs behind the tackles. This is especially troubling behind RT for the reason I just described: it's where their OFF prefers to run the ball. Hey. At least they're only below average when it comes to running up the middle. Of course, these stats probably confirm what we've been seeing in the run game from our 49ers. Namely, 3 yards and a cloud of dust; keep running it up the middle for minimal gains regardless of whether the DEF is stopping it or not - and they have been.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

The same stats for OL can be applied in reverse to the DEF. However, rather than these stats measuring the performance of the DL, it's more accurate to say that they measure the performance of the DEF front 7 because LBs - and sometimes Ss - are involved in run-stopping. So here they are:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
3.24	8	100.0%	32	5.8%	14
Actual Yds Per RB Carry	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
3.13	6	32.3%	2	4.5%	13

Once again, we see statistical proof that the DEF is carrying this team. Except for being perfectly unsuccessful in short-yardage 3^rd/4^th down situations, they've been stout overall stopping the run. Although perhaps not apparent at first glance, the Niners' middle-of-the-road ASR is an important development. For one, they were a dismal 26^th last season, with an ASR of 5.0%. Also - and this is a nuanced point, so try to keep up with me here - the 2008 49ers' DEF had an ASR that was lower than its' actual sack rate, whereas this season the reverse is true. In other words, last year's pathetic sack total was - even more depressingly - a statistical mirage due to favorable game situations. Think "losing by 20 points on 3^rd & 20 in the early 4^th quarter." In contrast, this year's pass rush has actually been hurt, rather than helped, by the game situations in which they've played. Aside from this being yet another vindication of the validity of FO's stats, it more importantly suggests that the Niners pass rush might have more to show for itself once game situations even out a little bit as the season progresses.

Below is the DEF front 7's directional run-stopping chart (click to enlarge):

As you can see, the 49ers are a top-8 DEF through 2 games when it comes to stopping runs to the outside. Is this a speed thing? Is this a Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer thing? Is this an overall aggressive philosophy thing? You decide.

One other thing I'll point out about the directional stats is a bit of good fortune the DEF front 7 seems to have experienced in their first 2 games. Namely, they allow over 7 adjusted yards per RB carry when the opponent runs behind their LT, but - thankfully - ARI and SEA have basically ignored that major weakness in their play-calling. If I were MIN, or any other future 2009 opponent, I'd be looking to exploit this weakness much more than 3.2% of the time.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, FO puts out DVOA stats for each pass DEF that tell you how they've performed against their various types of opposing receivers. As is the case with all passing stats, these look at every pass attempt, not just those that are completed. Again, I've made a reader-friendly chart for you (click to enlarge):

Although it's quite difficult to figure out, a thorough search of the internet, NFL game books, and Fooch's DVR led to the pass DEF formations displayed above. In nickel, Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson move to DE, Dre Bly comes in as the 3^rd CB, Mark Roman - ugh - replaces Michael Lewis at SS, and Lewis moves down to replace Takeo Spikes at WLB. In dime, either Lewis moves back to S (with Dashon Goldson and Roman) or Tarell Brown replaces Lewis as the 6^th DB.

As for the stats, the chart shows that Spencer and Bly have actually played more efficiently than Clements. Of course, it's once again important to remember that the above stats haven't been adjusted for opponent yet. Obviously, Larry Fitzgerald and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are 2 of the best #1 WRs in the NFL, so Clements' stats stand to improve simply by virtue of the adjustments. I don't anticipate much of a change in the stats vs. TEs, because SF has faced one really good TE (John Carlson) and one invisible TE (Anthony Becht), which pretty much averages things out anyway. And one more thing I don't envision changing much is the pass DEF's poor performance against RBs, but that might just be - at least in part - by design.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 2 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers based on their team statistics thus far:

Hill has produced pass-unfriendly numbers despite playing in pass-friendly situations. But having Jimmy Raye as an OC is a superceding pass-unfriendly situation.
Gore's been a valuable and efficient RB, though not quite as much as what those two 80-yard runs might suggest. Sorry for the reality check, but don't expect him to be gaining 6+ yards per carry for the remainder of the season.
Bruce may be the Niners' best WR, but he sure hasn't been a #1 WR, which means Morgan hasn't been a #2 WR, and so on.
VD...can win without him.
The OL hasn't been run-blocking very well, which is surprising, what with all the practice they've been getting. They've been pretty bad compared to the rest of the league at pass-blocking too, but still better than what their 8 sacks allowed might suggest.
The DEF front seven has been stout against the run, especially when the opponent has run to the outside. Also, their pass rush through 2 games is statistically better than last year's, and may improve even more once their game situations even out.
The secondary is defending well against #2 WRs, #3 WRs, and TEs, but not so well against #1 WRs and RBs. Clements' numbers will probably improve once FO starts making opponent adjustments, but the poor pass DEF against RBs probably won't.

OK, that's it for this week. If the length of these 2 posts has rubbed you the wrong way or made you feel like you just survived being hit in the back by Patrick Willis, don't fret. Next week, I won't be trying to teach everyone how FO's stats were developed, what they mean, how they're interpreted, etc. That'll make the posts a whoooooooole lot shorter. So, see you again next week, hopefully after a Niner win!

**DVOA, DYAR, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

After what you've seen from Vernon Davis in the first 2 games of 2009, should the 49ers fish or cut bait?

Fish

437 votes

Cut bait

65 votes

502 votes | Poll has closed

Arizona Cardinals Smother the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-17: Offensive Breakdown

Hawkwind — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:07:14 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Old? Washed Up? Injured? I don't think so. Kurt Warner silenced his critics, if for only one week, by breaking the NFL completion percentage in a single game by completing 24 of 26 passes as the Arizona Cardinals defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-17. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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After struggling to get out of their own way during the first week of the season, the Arizona Cardinals offense looked like a well-oiled machine against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They rolled up 383 yards, notched 22 first downs and averaged 6.4 yards per play. The offensive was not only explosive but more importantly they were efficient with just one running play that resulted in negative yardage and zero sacks. Not a bad day at the office but when you add in an NFL record (ala Warner's completion percentage) and the team's first win on the east coast at 10 am since 2002 and you've got yourself one heck of a week two win.

Kurt Warner's Near Perfection: Kurt Warner is old, he can't move in the pocket, his hip just isn't right and it's time to get Matt Leinart into the starting lineup. Oh wait, that was last week. This week Warner threw the ball 26 times and it only hit the ground twice. He set an NFL record with a 92.3 completion percentage in a single game and posted a QB rating of just over 131. Not bad for a broken down has-been. The difference between Warner's game this week and last week was the result of three key factors. First and foremost he had his full compliment of weapons at receiver. Anquan Boldin looked quicker, more agile and basically looked like the receiver that were accustomed to seeing from #81. Steve Breaston was back in action and I think the fact that he led the team in receiving yards and yards per catch (16.6) tells the story of his return to the lineup. The second factor leading to KW's big day is the play calling to start the game. We said last week that Warner is a rhythm oriented quarterback and Whiz's play calling to start the game was filled with short, quick passes. Despite throwing just four passes on the Cards eleven play opening drive, Warner was able to get into a rhythm that he was able to sustain all day long. The third and final factor seems pretty obvious, pass protection. Warner wasn't sacked all day long and he really wasn't under much pressure. We've said it before but any team that allows KW to stand it the pocket and go through his progressions is going to pay dearly. Despite his many faults, Warner is still one of the very best in the league if he doesn't have to worry about a pass rush.
Running Game Actually Going Somewhere: Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells combined for 116 yards on 22 carries (5.3 ypc). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that a successful running game paired with this high powered passing game is a lethal combination. From the outset of the game the Cardinals tried to establish the running game with seven rushes on the opening eleven play drive that was capped off by a one yard TD plunge by Hightower. By the end of the game the Red Birds had converted seven first downs on the ground, scored on touchdown and had just one rushing attempt result in negative yardage. Of course the black eye of the whole operation were the two fumbles by Beanie, one of which was lost. Something tells me though that this week he'll be carrying a ball around 24/7 and be receiving quite a bit of extra coaching from the staff as well as fellow teammates on the importance of ball control. The bottom line is that if the Cardinals running game is anywhere near this productive in terms of yardage and yards per carry, the offense will have no problems moving the ball and scoring points.

Offensive Line Mans Up: After a pitiful showing against the Niners that included three sacks and just 2.4 yards per rushing play the offensive line could not have had a better game against the Jags. It certainly helped that the Jaguars best pass rusher broke his leg the week prior but the fact remains that the offensive line kept Warner and Leinart very clean on their 32 passing attempts. They also opened some very nice holes for Hightower and Wells but the most promising aspect was the blocking at the second level. Both backs were able to break off 17 yard rushes thanks to stellar blocking at the second level. This is the type of game that we'd expect from a unit that's played together for 22 consecutive games.
Play Calling Sets the Tone: Two things really stuck out to me about Ken Whisenhunt's play calling to start the game. First, the short, quick passing game got Warner into an unbelievable rhythm and secondly the early runs, especially on first down made sure that the Jacksonville defense couldn't sell out to step Warner. Eventually other teams will figure out that almost 65% of the Cardinals running plays have come on first down but now they're moving the ball well and keeping opposing defenses off balance.
Special Props to Anthony Becht: According to the official box score Becht had one catch for 16 yards but his biggest contribution to the game had nothing to do with making a catch or even throwing a block. Becht, who admitted that he likes to be the first guy to help his running backs up after their tackled, was trailing Beanie on both of his fumbles. Becht was lucky enough to pounce on the first one, saving a drive deep inside the Jags' redzone, and on the second one he was close enough to touch Rashean Mathis before he got up preventing a 34 yard return. I'm sure these kind of contributions aren't what Ken Whisenhunt was bargaining for when he signed Becht but it's the kind of veteran savvy that is contagious to young players.

"You are in the right spot at the right time," Becht said. "I tend to get to the running backs after they are tackled to help them up, and sometimes that gets me near the ball and I happened to see the ball bouncing a couple times today."

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Overall it's nearly impossible not to be pleased with the performance by the offense on Sunday. They rolled up more than 380 yards, put 31 points on the scoreboard (hat tip to CardsIrish who reminds up that the offense actually posed 24 points as Antrel Rolle put up seven on his own) and they basically did all of their damage in the first three quarters. Matt Leinart took most of the snaps in the fourth quarter (3 of 6 for 22 yards) and the Cards coasted to a victory on the east coast. Things will be tougher next week but for now the Red Birds celebrate their first win of the season.

Warner Nearly Perfect as the Arizona Cardinals Beat Jacksonville 31-17

Pyromnc — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:00:43 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

2 months ago: Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, left, dives for a third quarter touchdown as Jacksonville Jaguars safety Sean Considine tries to make the stop during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009, in Jacksonville, Fla. Arizona won 31-17. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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One week after losing an important home division game to the San Francisco 49ers the Cardinals dominate the Jacksonville Jaguars for most of the game. The offense was in sync for the first time this year and looked even better than the 2008 offense. As for the defense, they again looked good and were able to hold the Jags to two touchdowns and one field goal. Overall the team looked very good and definitely alleviated some of the worries most of the Cardinals fans had after the week one loss.

The Good:

Kurt Warner: In week 1 Warner was starting to look like the 38 year old quarterback that most 38 year old quarterbacks look like. Not very good. In week two Warner did a complete and flip flop and decided to break the NFL record for completion percentage in a game (minimum 20 attempts). Warner completed 24 of 26 passes (92.3 %) beating out the old record held by Vinny Testaverde who had completed 21 of 23 passes (91.3) in 1993. To add to that, Warner tied the team record for most consecutive completions with 15, a record originally held by Jake Plummer who made that record in 1998. Warner's final numbers were 243 passing yards and 2 touchdown passes.
Tim Hightower: Hightower followed up his 12 receptions for 121 yards in week 1 with another good game carrying the ball 15 times for 72 yards (4.8 ypc) and 1 touchdown. This week the Cardinals offensive line opened up some holes allowing HIghtower to rumble for several long runs with his longest being 17, meaning that he was pretty consistent on each carry. Hightower also had 3 catches for 12 yards.
The Offensive Line: Compared to last week this line looked much improved. They gave Warner time and opened up holes for the run game, but they still had some penalties, though not as much. Levi Brown added to his resume another false start and Deuce Lutui had another holding. Those were the only two penalties that were really the offensive line's fault. Overall this unit was much more productive and if they continue to play that well the offense shouldn't have any trouble putting points on the board this year.
The defense (through the first 3 quarters): The defense again looked solid holding Jacksonville to just 17 points,10 through the first 3 quarters. They were able to get pressure on the David Garrard and if Garrard weren't so mobile and strong they probably would have come away with eight to ten sacks. They ended up only getting four sacks but that is not bad at all and is proving to be a lot better than people gave them credit for. They were also able to force four fumbles, recovering two. This unit is continuing where it left off last week and is not looking like they are going to slow down any time soon.
Special Teams: In week one the special teams was probably the most solid unit, pinning the opponent down to bad field positions, making all their field goals, and giving the Cardinals good field position. For the most part that was true for week two also. They didn't allow anything on kick returns and punt returns while LaRod Stephens-Howling made smart decisions on his kick returns and averages 25 yards per return. They also blocked a field goal that was returned by Antrel Rolle for a touchdown, giving the Cards a 17-3 lead. All that good made up for the sloppiness that happened for this unit. Antrel Rolle again is not looking good as the punt returner, not knowing when to run up and catch the ball or to just let it go by him. This indecision caused two fumbles and could have drastically changed the game if either of those had ended up mattering. Neil Rackers also missed a field goal but that happens sometime.

The Bad:

Chris Wells: Beanie actually had a pretty good game, carrying the ball 7 times for 44 yards (6.3 ypc). His problem was that he could not hold onto the ball and fumbled the ball twice. Now the first time they got lucky and the tight end, Anthony Becht, was there to recover the ball on the one yard line. The second fumble though, he was not so lucky as it was recovered by Rashean Mathis. Luckily for Beanie, the Cards defense didn't allow the Jags to do anything with that turnover.
Penalties: The penalties were not nearly as bad as they were in week one but they still were a problem. The Cards racked up another 8 penalties for 50 yards. They are definitely down from the 12 from last week but that is still too much and is something they will have to continue to work on.

The Ugly:

Fourth Quarter Defense: First, in the effort of full disclosure Whiz was subbing in some of the second string defense towards the end of the third quarter and into the fourth but their performance still has to be graded at the same level. The defense only allowed seven points to the Jags in the fourth but they were lucky that it wasn't more. There was several dropped passes by the Jags that would have gone for long yardage and one of them would have gone for a touchdown bringing the game within seven points. They also missed tackles, one of them by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie allowing the receiver to go in for the touchdown. The defense has played well in the first three quarters in the first two weeks of the season but has also played bad, or not as good, in the fourth quarter in that same time frame. This has got to get better as the better teams will take advantage of this.
Turnovers, or possible turnovers: This was already covered earlier but it is very important that it stops. There was a total of five fumbles on offense. That is way too many and the Cardinals got lucky that only 2 of them were recovered by the Jags. This has got to stop if they want to be an elite or top 10 team.

Overall, the Cardinals played very well this Sunday and they made it tough to really find anything negative to say about their play. The one negative that was pointed out though that needs to be fixed is Beanie Wells. The kid looks very good and fluid in his cuts when running but he needs to get the ball secured better. This is something a lot of rookie backs need to learn, so it is not a big concern but it is something that needs to be pointed out and fixed. The other position that needs to be addressed is the punt return situation. Rolle has either got to learn how to field those punts or find someone else more reliable, this may be a tough task but it has got to happen. Next week this team will travel back home to play the Indianapolis Colts for the Sunday night game and after this game they should have the motivation and confidence to play well in that game.

Five Questions After the Arizona Cardinals Cut the Roster to 53

Hawkwind — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 18:21:04 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Jerheme Urban is one of seven wide receivers who made the Arizona Cardinals final 53 man roster. (AP Photo/ Ed Andrieski )

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The Arizona Cardinals trimmed their roster to 53 players over the weekend and while there weren't any big-name players shown the door, there were some surprising moves. Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt has left open the possibility that a player or two from other team's cuts could be added but there shouldn't be any wholesale changes or significant players added any time soon. At most we might see a veteran presence brought in to shore up a weakness in depth but for the most part this is the team that will decide whether the 2009 Cardinals live up to their lofty expectations. In looking over the remaining 53 players, a handful of questions come to mind and the answers to these questions might just be the difference between another successful January or some early prep work for the NFL draft.

Why Seven Wide Receivers? - Seven wide receivers is a big number and there are two theories as to why they chose to keep that many. The first, and most likely, theory is that the coaching staff looked at their current wide outs and saw Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston and Early Doucet all nursing various ailments. While none of the three are considered serious injuries, Boldin and Doucet do have a rather significant history with injuries and it's possible that they see Lance Long as a cheap but promising insurance policy. The fact that he offers something on special teams, most notably as a returner, certainly didn't hurt his case either. The second, and less likely although more juicy, theory revolves around the possibility of a trade. To make things a bit more complicated this theory has two parts with the most likely theory centering around a trade of Long, whom most thought the Chiefs would claim if he was exposed to waivers. Todd Haley is a fan of Long and the possibility of them giving up a sixth or seventh round pick doesn't seem all that far fetched. The second theory in this subset is again far less likely but the continued Boldin trade rumors simply won't die. It seems far to late for the Cardinals to still consider this an option, especially with Boldin's softer stance, but just know that the rumors are still out there. Of course the most likely of all of these scenarios is simply that the Cardinals thought that they were a better team with Lance Long than without.
Is there enough depth at linebacker? - One of the more surprising cuts was the release of Victor Hobson, a veteran capable of lining up at inside and outside linebacker. Of course it was more surprising given the lack of depth at his position as opposed to his performance on the field but his absence leaves the Cardinals with some very inexperienced backups at the linebacker position. It is conceivable that the Red Birds could enter the season with four backups who have never taken a regular season snap in a 3-4 defense. Bertrand Berry is the veteran of the group but he missed all of OTA's so his experience in this defense is limited to training camp and most view him as strictly a situational pass rusher. Ali Highsmith, a second year undrafted player, is undersized but has the most experience of the inside backers. Rookies Will Davis (6th round) and Reggie Walker (undrafted) comprise the rest of the depth but I think it's fair to say that they are not ready to start on Sundays. If a player is added to the roster this week, it will most likely be a veteran linebacker and they'll certainly add at least one more linebacker on the practice squad.

What happens if Adrian Wilson were to get injured? - While almost everyone who has ever donned Cardinals-red was glad to see Aaron Francisco shown the door, his absence does open a hole in the secondary. While we all knew his limitations, Francisco did at least bring a level of experience to the field that the remaining backup safeties can not boast. He had started just nine games over the past three years but with the way that the Cardinals use their safeties, he was on the field quite a bit with the nickel and dime packages. His responsibilities and playing time now fall to, most likely, Matt Ware. Ware has primarily been a special teams player but his best asset has always been his versatility as both a safety and corner. The interesting thing for Ware though will be if he gets exposed with the increase in playing time, the way that Francisco did over the past couple of seasons. Ware's ability to grasp his responsibilities as a safety could go a long way to determining just how successful this secondary is in 2009.
What happens when Ben Patrick returns? - As we all know, Patrick will return to the team after week four and at that point, someone will have to be cut in order to make room on the roster. As you might expect the Cardinals will have plenty of options, such as cutting a tight or carrying four, cutting a wide receiver or even trimming an offensive lineman off of the current group of nine. The most likely scenario would be cutting a tight end which would mean that the trio of Stephen Spach, Anthony Becht and Dominique Byrd are playing for their jobs for the next four weeks.
Where is the depth at left tackle? - While Oliver Ross wasn't a terribly enticing option as Mike Gandy's backup, Ross was the only player on the 80 man roster who had taken snaps at left tackle during the preseason. His name on the cut list means that the Cardinals are left without an experienced backup should Gandy go down and that should send chills up the blindside of Kurt Warner. Coach Whisenhunt has already stated that Levi Brown would flip over to left tackle if something were to happen and either Brandon Keith or Herman Johnson would step in at right tackle. Given Brown's struggles with speed rushers and Keith and/or Johnson's inexperience, the Cardinals would weaken themselves at two positions and likely leave KW as a sitting duck. I'm sure that the Cardinals would love to add a quality backup at left tackle (ala Elliot Vallejo) but left tackles who can hold their own on an NFL field are not unemployed for very long.

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How do you see these questions playing out and what questions would you ask when looking at the final roster?

NFC West Breakdown: Arizona Cardinals

Pyromnc — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 23:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Cardinals running back Beanie Wells (26) breaks a tackle against Green Bay Packers safety Nick Collins on his way to a touchdown in the second quarter of an NFL preseason game Friday, Aug. 28, 2009 in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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Key Additions: TE Dominique Byrd (Rams), LB Reggie Walker (Undrafted FA), TE Anthony Becht (Rams), RB Jason Wright (Browns), DB Bryant McFadden (Steelers).

Key Losses: RB Edgerrin James (Seahawks), DE Antonio Smith (Texans), RB J.J. Arrington (Broncos, now FA), FB Terrelle Smith (Lions), LB Monty Beisel (Chiefs), TE Leonard Pope (Cut), S Aaron Francisco (Cut), LB Victor Hobson (Cut), FB Tim Castille (Cut).

Draft: RB Chris Wells (1st), DE/LB Cody Brown (2nd), S Rashad Johnson (3rd), CB Greg Toler (4th), OT Herman Johnson (5th), DE/LB Will Davis (6th), RB LaRod Stephens-Howling (7th), OG Trevor Canfield (7th).

In 2008 the Arizona Cardinals shocked the world by winning their division, dominating in the playoffs, and coming within 2 minutes of winning the Super Bowl. Despite doubters who thought that the Cardinals were not a legitimate playoff team, the Red Birds put together three playoff victories and were within two minutes of winning Super Bowl 43. The same doubters are now describing last season, and especially last January, as a "fluke" or claiming that the Cardinals will be another team to fall victim to the dreaded "Super Bowl curse." These are the type of comments that the team thrived on in the playoffs and they hope they can use it to their advantage this season.

After the Super Bowl loss there were some key areas that the Cards hoped to address this off season that plagued them throughout the year last year. Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett (or Nine-0), Karlos Dansby, Adrian Wilson, and Kurt Warner all wanted or needed new contracts. They took care of three of those five mentioned, Warner got a two year deal, Dansby was franchised, and Wilson got a five year deal. Q and Nine-0 were told they won't talk contract until they are in the final year of their deals. Other areas of need were upgrading were the rushing attack, the secondary, and special teams. They added to each group by drafting RB Beanie Wells, signing Jason Wright (a beast on special teams), and signing DB Bryant McFadden. They hope that these new additions will upgrade their respective units.

The 2008 offense that dominated so much returns with just a few changes this season and more experience. The team lost their most productive RB in a long time by cutting Edge and replacing him with Wells. Wells was a monster tail back for Ohio State and he hopes to have the same success in the NFL. So far though he has been injured but from the two games he has played in he has shown enough that Cardinals fans are already asking for him to start the opener against the Niners. That starting job will go to Tim Hightower who has lost body fat and put on more muscle to prove that he can be a reliable back in this league. This unit also replaced RB J.J. Arrington, our 3rd down back and kick returner, with Hyphen (Howling) whom they hope can be just as elusive and fast as JJ was on kick returns.

The rest of the offense is virtually the same with the exception of Anthony Becht, who was added to the tight ends mix, and receiver Lance Long. The starting 5 on the OL return and should be better having another year under Russ Grimm and backups like Brandon Keith and Elton Brown. Keith looking especially promising and could be a future starter. All in all this offense still has all the potential to look just as good as last year and if they all stay healthy they should be among the best again.

The defensive unit is loaded with talent, just like the offense, but their problem is actually doing their job every week on a consistent basis. One week the can get constant pressure on a QB, no matter how good the OL is, and they win the turnover battle. The next week they won't do either of those and allow several touchdowns. The problem is that they are already showing these problems again in preseason play, playing very well in the first two games and than doing the opposite in the last two. There is no doubt that if this team wants to continue the success they had last year the defense will have to perform as they did in January. They can't make stupid mistakes and they need to play hard every down, which some players have a hard time doing unless on a national stage game that puts them in the spotlight (Darnell Dockett).

The strength of this team on defense has to be the secondary with Adrian Wilson and Antrel Rolle manning the safety positions and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and newly acquired Byrant McFadden manning the corners. Although they have struggled in preseason this unit is considered by many to be one of the top secondaries in the league, something they were far from last season.

The weakest part of the defense has to be the front seven (LB and DL). They lack a whole lot of depth at these positions, which we need since Clark Haggans, Bertrand Berry, and Chike Okeafor are all over 30. Calais Campbell is trying to replace Antonio Smith, who was very important to this team in the playoffs. They have Gerald Hayes and Karlos Dansby at ILB but if one of them goes down we don't have a whole lot behind them to step in with udrafted rookie Reggie Walker and 2nd year player Ali Highsmith. The DT position doesn't have much depth either with Gabe Watson coming off of knee surgery, Bryan Robinson being over 30, and Alan Branch still not doing what the first pick in the 2nd round is supposed to be doing. Definitely tons of questions on the defense but still lots of promise if they can stay healthy and play hard.

This is definitely going to be an interesting year for the Cards coming off a season in which they had so much success. They will have an up hill battle again this season though as everyone thinks they are a one year wonder and will fall back into oblivion again this year. If the Cards want to prove those naysayers wrong they are going to have to be consistent on offense, consistent defense, and stay healthy. It's certainly shaping up to be an interesting year as the Cards look to "Shock the World" again.

Record for 2009: 10-6
Record Vs the NFC West: 5-1

Poll

Who Wins the NFC West this Season?

San Francisco 49ers

21 votes

St. Louis Rams

6 votes

Seattle Seahawks

32 votes

Arizona Cardinals

280 votes

339 votes | Poll has closed

Arizona Cardinals Make Cuts; Release Pope, Francisco, and Hobson

Andrew602 — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 22:39:10 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Arizona Cardinals safety Aaron Francisco (47)

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After one of the more lackluster performances of the preseason, the Cardinals have made their final cuts of the off season before the home opener against the 49ers. Within the last 24 hours, the Cardinals were able to make their decisions and release the remaining 20 players on the bubble. Among them were some notables, including Aaron Francisco, Leonard Pope, and Victor Hobson. Aside from the cuts, those that were left untouched were undrafted rookie linebacker Reggie Walker and second year linebacker Ali Highsmith.

The cuts also show just how much trust the coaches have in the young players on defense. Now backing up Wilson and Rolle will be Matt Ware and Rashad Johnson. Highsmith, Walker and Will Davis will also fill in behind the starters at linebacker. On offense, the Cardinals cut quarterback Tyler Palko, along with fullback Tim Castille. Aside from Pope, the offense remains virtually the same.

Players that were able to survive the cut may come as the real surprise. Fan favorite Lance Long, just barely made the team. With Pope being the odd man out, that means the Cardinals will carry Dominique Byrd, Anthony Becht, and Stephen Spach. Since Ben Patrick doesn't count against the roster until week four, we can only assume that one of these tight ends will be released at that point. Other notables that survived the cut were Michael Adams, Greg Toler, and more importantly, LaRod Stephens-Howling. The most obvious reason for LSH's spot on the roster has to be return duties, which he should be ready for on September 13th. What's everyone's take on the roster cuts? Would you have handled the cuts any different?

For a complete list of the roster cuts, click here.

53 Man Roster Predictions After the Arizona Cardinals Shutout Loss to the Broncos

Hawkwind — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:49:49 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Arizona Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt will have harder time cutting 22 players today than he did finding an offensive play that would work this preseason. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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Truth be told we won't dwell on another lackluster effort in the preseason. The Arizona Cardinals finished the preseason without a win but that doesn't even begin to tell the story of how ugly the past three and a half weeks have been. To give you a quick taste of how the past four games have gone, the Cardinals have been outscored 71-16 in the first half, Cardinals' quarterbacks have combined to throw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (9 to 4) and the Cardinals' defenders have forced just one turnover. In conclusion this Cardinals team has looked like the one that played in December of 2008 instead of the team that took the field in January of 2009. Just for the record, historically teams that finish the preseason winless, also struggle in the regular season. Going back to 1989, 35 teams have finished the preseason without a win and 31 of those teams failed to make the playoff. To make matters worse, 21 of them finished with a losing record.

But we said we weren't going to dwell so we're moving on to the news that should come down today. Tomorrow is the deadline to cut down the rosters to 53 players, but most expect Ken Whisenhunt to break the news in an afternoon press conference. With that in mind, here's ROTB's last shot at nailing down the 53 man roster.

QB (3): Kurt Warner, Matt Leinart, Brian St. Pierre - Tyler Palko played his way out of any shot of making the roster with a poor performance last night. BSP hasn't shown much this preseason but Whiz is familiar enough with his abilities for him to stick.
RB (4): Tim Hightower, Chris Wells, Jason Wright, LaRod Stephens-Howling - No one did much to either help or hurt their case for a roster spot last night.
FB (1): Dan Kreider - After the recent discussion about Kreider vs. Tim Castille, I kept a close eye on both players last night. To be honest neither did much to impress me and at this point I think Whiz would chose a veteran that he's familiar with over a younger player.
WR (6): Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban, Early Doucet and Sean Morey - I, like most Cardinals fans I suspect, have been pulling for Lance Long but he's played a great deal in the past two preseason games and he hasn't done much with his opportunity (2 catches for 21 yards). I think it's fair to say that he's not ready and I'd be wiling to risk cutting him. The Chiefs may or may not claim him before we can stash him on the practice squad but he can't help this team right now.

TE (3): Stephen Spach, Anthony Becht and Dominique Byrd - Truth to be told, I still don't know what we have at this position but I'm confident that Leonard Pope will be cut. He was the last tight end to take the field last night and that says enough about his future. I went back and forth on Byrd but his versatility in the H-back role won me over. The interesting thing about this spot is who gets released after week four when Ben Patrick comes back.

OL (9): Mike Gandy, Reggie Wells, Lyle Sendlein, Deuce Lutui, Levi Brown, Herman Johnson, Brandon Keith and Elton Brown and Melvin Fowler - It's overkill keeping so many offensive lineman and I went back and forth on Elton Brown but his ability to play LT made the difference. Oliver Ross is a possibility but he just didn't impress me during the preseason. Elton Brown wasn't all that impressive either but at least this coaching staff has seen him step in at LT and play decently.

DL (6): Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell, Bryan Robinson, Kenny Iwebema, Gabe Watson and Alan Branch - No real surprises here. Branch hasn't done much to warrant a spot but neither has anyone behind him. At least he can line up at DE now as well as DT, although his effectiveness remains about the same. Keilen Dykes doesn't make the cut but hopefully they can keep him on the practice squad thanks to another leg injury that cost him nearly the entire preseason.
LB (8): Karlos Dansby, Gerald Hayes, Clark Haggans, Chike Okeafor, Will Davis, Victor Hobson, Reggie Walker and Ali Highsmith - Bertrand Berry is the surprise cut on the roster after pulling a disappearing act during the preseason that would make David Copperfield jealous. Considering that the backups consist of two rookies, one sophomore UDFA and a guy that was signed off the streets before the regular season finale last year, I fully expect the Cardinals to scour the waiver wire for a veteran linebacker (inside or out).
CB (5): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Bryant McFadden, Ralph Brown, Greg Toler and Michael Adams - I don't know what to make of this unit but these are the top five guys. DRC has struggled mightily the past two games, McFadden can't even get on the field and Brown is looking awful old and slow. Toler and Adams are two guys that we should all hope spend much more time on special teams than the regular defense.
S (5): Adrian Wilson, Antrel Rolle, Rashad Johnson, Aaron Francisco and Matt Ware - Basically this is the same unit as last year, plus a third round pick. Francisco is still Francisco although Ware has caught my eye several times this preseason.
Specialists (3): Neil Rackers, Ben Graham and Mike Leach - No surprises.

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To be honest, when I first wrote all this down I ended up with 54 players and after scouring the two deep I ended up cutting a veteran, Bertrand Berry. I'm not sure why but I keep getting the feeling that some of the veterans who've been around this team throughout all of the bad times cause some apathy in the locker room sometimes that lead to performances like we've seen the past couple of weeks. Berry's absence over the course of OTA's and his indifferent excuse once training camp started is just a microcosm of how this team has played over the course of the preseason. Maybe it's a knee jerk reaction on my part for thinking that someone's head has to roll but so be it. Thoughts? Who makes your 53?

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos: 5 Things to Watch for

Andrew602 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

3 months ago: FILE - In this Aug. 28, 2009, file photo, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Matt Leinart looks to throw against the Green Bay Packers during the third quarter of a preseason NFL football game. Leinart seems to be passing the challenge to his role as No. 2 quarterback. Passing would be the operative word. He threw for 360 yards in the second half against the Packers. (AP Photo/Paul Connors, File)

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Today officially marks the near end of the 2009 preseason. After four long weeks, the Arizona Cardinals wrap up their preseason tonight against the Denver Broncos. I think I speak for everybody when I say thank god the preseason is just about over. But tonight the Cardinals, or should I say the second string team has to take on the Broncos reserves in which should be ~~an exciting battle till the end,~~ ok maybe it won't be but there's sure to be some things to watch for, and that's what we'll break down today. Remember that last weeks game didn't get exciting until the ~~agonising first half slaughter was over~~ reserves came out in the second half. Here's five things to watch for tonight:

Will Matt Leinart come out on fire tonight?After last weeks incredible showing by Leinart, we could see the same performance tonight against the Broncos. It also wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar stat line, especially considering that Kurt Warnerwill likely not play, if at all. With that in mind, expect to see a large chunk of playing time for Leinart during this game.
Beanie Well's second NFL game. Last week many of us were anticipating the debut of Chris Wells and we were not disappointed. Wells came into the game and couldn't have looked anymore impressive. This week he should get a decent amount of playing time since Tim Hightower won't. Watch to see how he does against Denver's suspect defense. They were terrible last year and haven't started the preseason that great, giving up an average of 107 rushing yards a game, with 27 attempts, a 3.9 yard average and 2 touchdowns allowed.

The amount of playing time for the first team defense. Last week we saw a defense that didn't come out with any passion or chemistry. Granted it was a preseason game, but it frustrated many Cardinal fans, and the coaching staff, who made the starters stay in the game well into the third quarter. You have to wonder if they'll make them play a meaningful amount of time tonight to get the chemistry possibly flowing.

Will a tight end ever step up?So far this preseason we haven't seen much of the Cardinals tight ends, and you can rule a competitive battle for the starting position out the window. So far Stephen Spach has went from a playoff favorite to a preseason dud, by dropping balls and committing penalties. Leonard Pope has been invisible on the receiving end, and that's his strong suit! I don't even know what to say about ~~what's his name~~ Anthony Becht (considering I had to look up the Cardinals roster because I forgot his name). As we all know Ben Patrick is out for the first four games, but did he ever dominantly declare himself the starter? The only tight end that's stuck out in my mind is Dominique Byrd, who's made the blocks when he's needed to, and has been able to catch the ball when it was thrown his way.

The fight for 53. The most important part of the game to watch for is the fight for 53. The Cardinals make their final cut this Saturday, when they drop their roster to 53 players. This means a good amount of solid players that we've already grown accustomed to, will likely be released. This last game is the most important to these bubble players, as it could determine who makes the team. Players like Lance Long, Matt Ware, Victor Hobson, Alan Branch, or one of the tight ends I named above, may not be a Cardinal after this Saturday.

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That's it for this game. Hopefully we can see a competitive game out of the reserves, otherwise I might have to record the second half to skip through later. Although it's only the preseason, it would be nice for the Cardinals to get a win before the 49ers come to town. Is there anything else important that comes to mind? What else should we watch for?