SB Nation - Bruce Gradkowski

Broncos cannot close the deal, lose to Raiders 20-19

John Bena — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:40:32 -0000

Final

Category	Broncos	Raiders
Score	19	20
Rushing Yards	80	241
Passing Yards	257	102
Total Yards	337	343
3rd Down Conversions	4-15	4-13
T.O.P	28:34	31:26
Turnovers	0	2
Red Zone Att.	1-4	1-3

The Denver Broncos have had one flaw all season - short yardage running. It has been a season-long struggle that reared it's ugly head again today as the Broncos lost to the hated Raiders, at home, AGAIN, 20-19. There was plenty to be annoyed with in this game - the defense against the run for much of the game as the Raiders chalked up 241 yards on the ground. How about 3rd Down Conversions? The Broncos are in the bottom half in the NFL in converting 3rd Downs. Today? 4-15. Not Good. The plain inability of the Broncos offense to score touchdowns in the Red Zone - they were 1-4 on the day, and of course, short yardage running. From 1st and Goal at the 3 in the 4th quarter, the Broncos were unable to score a touchdown, choosing instead to pass the ball 2 out of 3 times before kicking a FG.

That has been the moral of this Broncos season and because of it the Broncos are once again staring right in the face of a season lost - missing the playoffs for a 4th straight season when having it's destiny squarely in its hands.

Perhaps most frustrating is why JaMarcus Russell chooses the Broncos to give Raiders fans any hope that he might one day become a decent quarterback. Coming in for the injured Charlie Frye, Russell once again led the Raiders to a crushing defeat of the Broncos in Denver. The same Russell that was benched for, first Bruce Gradkowski, then Charlie Frye. The same Russell that is being run oout of town by his once-loyal fan-base.

So now the Broncos once again have their backs against the wall. They knew coming in to the game, after the Jets and Dolphins had both lost, that 2 wins in their final 3 games would be good enough to get the #5 seed. Now, they need both wins - in Philadelphia next week before a home game with Kansas City - just to hang on to the 6 seed. A loss in either? Well, nothing is certain then.

Mike Shanahan, and in large part, Jay Cutler, were run out of town for their inability to close late in the season. New coach, new quarterback, yet the same results in a late season disappointment at home. No time to feel sorry for ourselves, however, a tough game in Philadelphia awaits.

Congratulations to the San Diego Chargers, 2009 AFC West Champions.

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:23:44 -0000

I take an inordinate amount of notes on the upcoming games throughout the week, culled from all of Doug's great links in Tracks, emails with local and not-so-local sportswriters and analysts, and a few rare gems that I manage to find the time to dig up myself.

I finally decided it was time to settle on a format and share the info with MHR, so bear with me if this seems clumsy or ham-handed in its first incarnation; as in any analysis, whether it is draft prospects or short yardage running games, the choice isn't "what do I include?" but, "what do I leave out?" Let's see how it goes. Welcome to Sunday Morning Scout, the best way to begin a Broncos Sunday: MHR style!

A clear playoff picture. Home division games.

With three weeks to go, this is pretty easy: beat Oakland and beat Kansas City, two sub-.500 teams whom Denver has beaten by double digits already this year.

Worst-case scenario if they do this is 10 wins, which can only be challenged by both Miami (7-6) and Baltimore (7-6) going 3-0 and having Miami's Strength of Victory clock in higher than Denver's. Denver currently owns the higher (adjusted for assumed wins and losses by the above scenario) strength of victory, and a little projective number crunching puts the remaining variables in Denver's favor by a slight 2-1 edge (out of 27 variable games Denver only requires 9 favorable outcomes compared to Miami's 18).

The NFL is a game of percentages over time, and those percentages say that in the above tiebreak scenario, Denver's slight advantage is all they need, so Denver's job is as clear as it has ever been: win division games at home. That was true on day one of the season, and it will still be true on day 119.

STRATEGY

Run/pass balance.

Denver pummeled the Raiders with an unbalanced 67% - 33% run/pass split earlier in the year. For that game, it worked out to 4.8 yards per play (45 total) on rushes and 6.8 yards per play (23 total) on passes. A 2-yard "passing premium" (a concept which represents the risk inherent in passing plays and shows up as the difference in avg yds/play for pass vs. rush) is rather high, and the indication is that a few more game-planned passes would have been highly effective in deepening the domination and blowing out the score completely. Thinking back, the reasoning behind NOT passing more was likely the slow start that our passing offense was experiencing with Kyle Orton's injured finger and the general learning curve of Josh McDaniel's offense.

Going into this game the expectation of the pundits is that Denver will attempt to re-enact their 200+ yard rushing game of Week 3, but in true amoeba fashion, McDaniel's first game-planning priority will be maximizing his yards per play from that matchup, and that means calling more passes, especially run-based passes like the playaction. With Oakland's strength languishing in the running game, and a "journeyman" QB under center, the expectation is for Oakland to attempt to run a risk-averse running scheme early, using short, high-percentage passes to backs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden and a high percentage of running calls, probably designed to use clock and shorten the game. I would expect Denver to start the game with a slightly more risky package than we have become accustomed to seeing, in an attempt to setup some fantastic matchups in our running game and against their passing attack.

A huge key to what we will be seeing in this game will be to identify early just how risk-averse McDaniels is in the playcalling. With key injuries on offense and defense, he may not be willing to take any chances against Oakland. On the other hand, he may be comfortable with Knowshon Moreno and David Bruton, among others, and be willing to ride those guys. Confidence in the team right now will go a long ways if they make the playoffs, in terms of adding a dynamic that other teams must prepare for. The good news is that if they pass on that opportunity this week, they may well have another opportunity in the final week of the season to accomplish many of the same goals.

PERSONNEL

Moreno and the rock.

The good news about the likely addition of passes to the Broncos' gameplan is that their running corps could use a break. With Correll Buckhalter likely out, Moreno, LaMont Jordan and Spencer Larsen all playing at significantly less than 100%, and Peyton Hillis struggling to get on the field, this is very good news. Denver may be able to focus on keeping Moreno in the 20- to 23-carry range, where he was most effective in college. The calls for Knowshon to shoulder "a heavy workload" are a bit misplaced. If you can't use him effectively at 18 carries, you start to see diminishing returns afterwards. In college he averaged around 107 yards rushing per game (130 all purpose). He may reach and surpass that in the NFL, but it isn't a viable target to aim for. Focus on keeping him in a good range with his carries and let the rest take care of itself.

Clady vs Seymour, Seymour vs. Clady.

Ryan Clady ain't talking, and Richard Seymour is deflecting criticism of his hair-pulling stunt in Week Three, but for all intents and purposes this is probably a developing grudge match in Broncos-Raiders history. Clady and Seymour first met in 2008 when Seymour disrupted Clady's perfect rookie season with a half-sack in NE's blowout of Denver. When they met again, in Week Three in Oakland, after Seymour got, frankly, dumped by NE, a bit of frustration boiled over into a personal foul and fine when Clady dominated the matchup and caused Seymour to yank his Samson-like locks.

Now, with Clady fighting not only a generally slumping season for the O-Line in general, but his own personal slump within a slump where his expected level of consistent excellence seems just out of reach, and with Seymour needing to prove his professionalism in the face of what is looking like career murder in Oakland, this matchup may very well be one of the best in the game. With Daniel Graham staying in to help Tyler Polumbus, it would not be surprising for Denver to attempt to single Clady up against Seymour in the passing game, a high-risk, very high-reward scenario. Tied 1-1, let Round 3 of the Clady vs. Seymour grudge match begin.

Brandon Marshall vs Nnamdi Asomugha?

21 catches vs. $28.5 million. Pundits are already salivating over the matchup, and they should; it would be a matchup that would pit an immovable object against an irresistible force. Except it probably won't go down that way. To date, 90% of Oakland's coverage in the past two matchups has consisted of Chris Johnson on Marshall, and the results have been a workmanlike, if not effective total of 151 yards and 1 TD. A sizzling-hot Marshall against a slumping Johnson plays right into the game-planning hands of the Broncos, and for what it is worth, Johnson has basically noted that he can't stop Marshall from getting his receptions. "The key is stopping those plays after five or six yards and not letting him get further downfield," Johnson said. "The big ones -- the ones he makes 20 or 30 yards -- those are the ones that hurt you." If the Raiders are smart, they will assign Asomugha to shadow Marshall, and not leave that decision in the hands of the Broncos...

Another starter for Oakland at QB: out of the fire and into the Frye-ing pan?

First thing to note about Charlie Frye: he took a devastating situation and turned it into something positive once before. After being the first player in NFL history to be an Opening Day starter one week and traded the next (from Cleveland to Seattle), he immediately recognized a golden opportunity: the chance to study under Mike Holmgren, a Bill Walsh-descended QBing guru. "I wouldn't take that away for anything. If something happens to you, it makes you hungrier and keeps your eye on the prize as far as getting back on the field." The result is that he took a part of his game to a level he never even knew existed. He learned how to prepare himself, and as a result he has earned a reputation as one of the hardest working players in the Raider's locker room.

That has to be something Frye can build on as he prepares to be the second QB this year to leapfrog JaMarcus Russell for the starting job in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski had salvaged a shred of respect for his team, and in the process had earned the respect of his teammates. When he went down, it was exactly that last shred of confidence which was threatened with extinction as well. Tom Cable's choice to bypass Russell was an attempt to maintain that thread of team unity, and it might just work.

Frye, who hasn't started a game since Oct. 12th of last year (12-of-23 for 83 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT), which was his only game in the past two years, has been found in the film room, in the gym and in the meetings, and rarely anywhere else. He had taken it upon himself to submit ideas for the offensive gameplan once Gradkowski was promoted to starter, and in the process had forcibly wedged himself into the game-planning session's give-and-take. When Russell's second demotion came down, and Cable announced that Frye would be the starter, within moments Frye had his position coach on the phone to go over the week's gameplan. He came in early the next day with a complete understanding of what it was that Oakland was going to try to do, as well as Denver's perceived strengths and weaknesses.

And while nobody is saying exactly what that plan is going to be, Denver should be playing close attention to how the offense ran under Gradkoswski, because they are going to attempt to do most of the same things. With the team expected to be firmly behind Frye, his biggest challenge may be getting enough of the rust off to be effective. Denver would be wise to bring pressure early and often.

Elvis Dumervil vs. Mario Henderson

Henderson is coming off of a disheartening performance where he allowed three sacks alone, and where his linemates surrendered JaMarcus to the wolves six times, overall. In an overall disappointing season, Henderson has been particularly poor, and his confidence seems decimated. With poor depth on the line, he is at serious risk of being DOOM's plaything in this matchup, and with DOOM in the neighborhood of a couple of fantastic individual achievements, he may be able to generate some momentum that gets out of hand. DOOM got 2 sacks in his first matchup with Oakland, and the Raiders give up a sack on average every 9 passing attempts, to rank near the very bottom rung of the NFL.

On the other side, DOOM has to be excited to see Frye again. The last time they faced off, when Frye was still a Brown, Elvis notched his first three-sack game. DOOM has never recorded more than two sacks a year against Oakland, so he will be shooting to break that trend in this game.

By The Numbers

#20

Look for this number on every Raiders offensive snap. For the Broncos it will be Brian Dawkins, and for the Raiders it will be Darren McFadden. Last week, Redskins safety LaRon Landry made the mistake of not consistently accounting for where #20 was on the field, and McFadden took advantage twice in the first half. Twice McFadden was split out wide and sent in motion, where he beat Landry on slants across the middle, the first time for a whopping 48-yard gain, and the second time for 26 yards. On the afternoon, McFadden caught three for 84, and should be expected to be moved around again to create matchups in space in the middle of the field.

It will be Dawkin's responsibility to close fast and break things up. If McFadden gets the ball in his hands out there, it is absolutely critical to make the tackle, easier said than done.

19-3

Kyle Orton's home record, best in the NFL since the 1970 merger. Kyle Orton needs to just be himself, and the Broncos can start working on the nice playoff bow to put on this present season.

4.5, 3.8, 3.1

That is the average rushing yards per carry for Oaklands top three runners. Lucky for Denver, Cable is too ignorant to use the 4.8, and Al Davis is too senile not to use the 3.1.

Michael Bush is the great secret of the Oakland offense - so great in fact, that even the Raiders don't seem to know about him. He is their only rusher to break 100 yards in the last 13 games. Despite seeing a significantly-reduced workload since the beginning of November, he maintained his average at 4.8, only to find himself without a single offensive touch in the blowout loss to the Redskins. Even the underwhelming fullback Gary Russell got two carries and two receptions. And even though Fargas averages almost 85 yards a game against the Broncos, you can count on McFadden being Al's choice. The insistence of drumming McFadden's low yards per carry into the gameplan, all in the name of "flow," is the antithesis to the Broncos' game-planning mentioned at the beginning of this article. The Raiders are essentially forcing their "passing premium" into the stratosphere, which forces them to take only the highest-risk passing options available, at the worst times. Well done, guys.

142

Number of rushing TDs allowed by the Raiders over the past 109 games, a stretch of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL, and leading to the worst record in the NFL over that same span: 28-81, an epically awful .257 winning percentage.

90 for 902

Number of penalties and penalty yards logged by the Raiders in 2009, with 3 games still to play. After spending the first half of the year playing uncharacteristically sound football, Oakland has imploded as of late, dropping from top ten to 25th in the league. In Washington alone they notched 14 penalties for 118 yards, including a backbreaking personal foul that essentially ended the 10-10 lock they were in. Oakland may be the only place I know of where a completely-collapsed structure can implode.

94-22

The score in Denver's wins against sub-.500 teams this year. My grandma called this "Making hay while the sun shines."

6 for 1000

Moreno is on pace for a 1,000-yd rookie season, and I for one couldn't be happier for him or the Broncos. He is the epitome of what I want the Broncos to look for in a football player - the kind of person who was described thusly by his coach at Georgia, and he meant every word of it: "Knowshon Moreno, I know when you get to watch the kid practice every day and see what he does, it gets you excited. He is a very vibrant guy. He could be a gymnast. You can't hide his enthusiasm for life. He will light up his team with his energy level. He will jump over a guy standing on his feet and score. He has got speed, power and agility. People have to respect his power. If (the defense) sends a guy full-speed to try and get him, Knowshon will make them miss."

If Moreno does acheive 1,000 yds, he will join some good company: 2002 Clinton Portis (1,508), 2000 Mike Anderson (1,487), 1999 Olandis Gary (1,159), 1989 Bobby Humphrey (1,151), 1995 Terrell Davis (1,117).

8,871

Number of consecutive snaps played by Casey Weigmann. An incredible strength and perseverance is required, and he may need that trait in spades as this line attempts to go from having a so-so season, to a terrific postseason.

Horse Tracks 12/17/09 - Key Broncos Dumervil, Hill, Buckhalter, Law miss Wednesday practice due to injuries

Douglas A. Lee — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:41:02 -0000

DB - Studying Beyond the Standings - Chris Gentilviso
"For the Broncos, five players did not participate in Wednesday's practice: Correll Buckhalter (ankle), Elvis Dumervil (toe), Renaldo Hill (ankle), Ty Law (hamstring) and Brandon Lloyd (not injury related). Knowshon Moreno (ankle) was a limited participant. The four others listed on the report -- David Bruton (quadricep), Spencer Larsen (back), Richard Quinn (hamstring) and Tony Scheffler (ribs) -- were full participants. Five Raiders also did not participate in their Wednesday practice: DE Greg Ellis (knee), QB Bruce Gradkowski (knee), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), WR Nick Miller (shin) and TE Zach Miller (concussion). The two others listed on the report -- S Michael Huff (neck) and C Samson Satele (calf) -- were full participants."

DB - Week 15 - Wed: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DPP - Raiders pick Frye over Russell for start at QB - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Broncos forced to deal with injuries, inexperience at safety - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Briefs: Hobbled backfield may create chance for Hillis to help - Jeff Legwold

NFP - Marshall's big payday is coming - Matt Bowen

DPP - Q&A: Broncos likely to trade down in draft - Jeff Legwold

DB - Week 15 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 15 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

DPP - Time to draft new deals for star duo - Woody Paige

DP - Marshall vs. Asomugha matchup a key for Broncos - Mike Klis

DPP - Analysis: Raiders' issues at QB standard fare in NFL - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Toronto doctor "saved" Simms - Mike Klis

CSG - Seymour incident adds to Broncos-Raiders rivalry - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos have injuries at safety - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos notes: Bruton among candidates to replace Hill if needed - Frank Schwab

KDVR - Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Preview - Chris Tanaka

INDT - Broncos building for the playoffs - Hunter Ansley

DB - Broncos History From ‘Hoagy’ - Gray Caldwell

DB - Original Bronco Al "Hoagy" Carmichael Visits Dove Valley - Broncos TV

DPP - Former Bronco Bell sounds great again - Jim Armstrong

AFC West News

OT - Charlie Frye, not JaMarcus Russell named Oakland Raiders starting quarterback - Steve Corkran

OT - Is there more to come after JaMarcus Russell's demotion by the Raiders? - Monte Poole

OT - Quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is inclined to re-sign with Oakland Raiders - Steve Corkran

OT - Russell might never get off bench for Raiders or anyone else - Cam Inman

OT - No `breakthrough’ in sight for JaMarcus - Jerry McDonald

PFW - Safety shuffling hampers Bolts' pass 'D' - Michael Blunda

SDUT - Dependable Kaeding quietly holding record - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Ochocinco calls out Merriman - Chris Jenkins

KCS - Chiefs in bad hands with their receivers - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Bowe works with first-team offense in return to practice - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Wednesday Injury Reports

NFL - Bengals WR Henry sustains life-threatening injuries in fall from truck

NFL - Mangini says he's not worried by Browns' interest in Holmgren

NYT - For John Madden, at 73, the Game’s Still On - Richard Sandomir

NFL Opinion

NFP - Despite drama, Pats still a playoff team - Matt Bowen

NFP - Warming up the NFL coaching carousel - Robert Boland

NFP - Wednesday whys: Big extensions for Peyton, Brees? - Andrew Brandt

NFL - Colts, Saints becoming pride fighters in perfection pursuit - Steve Wyche

NFL - Defensive prowess has been the real key for Colts and Saints - Bucky Brooks

FH - No Guts, No Glory: 19-0 Is Way to Go - Jay Mariotti

NFP - Diner morning news: Can Holmgren rebuild Browns? - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Tavern talk: Holmgren not on Seattle’s list - Mike Lombardi

ESPN - 'The Big Show' coming to Cleveland? - John Clayton
"The Texans are close, but I thought the four-game losing streak in the division could cost Kubiak his job, particularly with Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher available." If John Clayton thinks Shanny would EVER take a job from which Kubes had been fired, he's even dumber than I've ever thought.

CBS - Coaching diagnoses: Survival chances of eight on edge - Clark Judge

CBS - Young talent may make Jacksonville anonymity thing of past - Pete Prisco

ESPN - Have at It: Will Cutler make it? - Kevin Seifert

Y! - HGH cloud begs for future testing - Charles Robinson

SN - Will Two Undefeated Teams Help NFLN Pressure Time Warner? - Dan Levy

NFP - NFP’s 2009 Big 12 all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

Predictions, Etc.

NYT - Week 15 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: What Is the Effect of Resting Starters? - Brian Burke

NYT - Thursday’s Matchup: Colts at Jaguars - Mike Tanier

SN - Week 15 picks: Electric Chargers will continue surge - Vinnie Iyer

FH - NFL Picks, Week 15: Will Colts Play Soft? - Dave Goldberg

FOX - Week 15 Cheat Sheet - Peter Schrager

SI - NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 15 - Dom Bonvissuto

FH - Predicting the Playoffs: A Nearly Drama Free NFC - JJ Cooper

SI - Eagles crack top five - Don Banks

FOX - Handicapping the MVP race - Alex Marvez

Bengals Banter: OK, so we could be over-reacting to the lack of a passing game

Kirkendall — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:43:01 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

29 days ago: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer (9) passes against the Oakland Raiders in the first quarter of an NFL football game, in Oakland, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2009.(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Browse more photos »

Alright. One last thing about the whole Bengals offense is struggling thing and we'll let it go. Vikings week is over. Hasta la vista, baby. What happened, happened. However, sitting on the couch, flipping through the channels of another Bruce Springsteen song, the idea Cincinnati has no momentum weighs heavily. What happened against Oakland, the Browns, the Lions, and the Vikings is meaningless. Because the Bengals biggest test comes against the Chargers. That can't influence the team, or us (the fans) heading into the biggest game of the year. Those games happened which led us to this point. But so did sweeps against the Ravens and Steelers and a win over a very strong Packers team that's coming into their own. Now, wipe all that away and focus on this week, where the Bengals still hold onto their own destiny for a bye week -- and homefield advantage against every team not named the Indianapolis Colts -- during the Wild Card weekend.

Meaningless note of the week: Carson Palmer has thrown for 110 yards passing or less in two of his past three games.

The question asking for Marvin Lewis' assessment on the passing game was asked Monday.

“We've got to do a better job of executing. We have to protect. We have to be in the right spots at the right depths and give the opportunity to the quarterback. And I think we've got to go back and do a better job of manufacturing some balls down the field. When we had our opportunities yesterday, they (Vikings) just happened to be in the right spots, and so the ball couldn't get there. But we've got to continue to do that and keep fine-tuned in that area, until we get some opportunities to make some plays. Yesterday for whatever reason, the luck wasn't in, the opportunity didn't match up. We had some good throws in there. But we have to do it consistently and all the time, and that will help.

“If you just turn it around, look at their offensive production yesterday. Their passing game was about 150 yards, and four balls to the backs that converted another 70. So in that kind of game, where neither team is really getting the ball down the field, we've got to make some hay with some of these other things that occur. We didn't execute our screens very well when we had them. We had opportunities there. Brian (Leonard) made a great run for our first first down, but there's got to be better execution around the board.

“All that being said, we're right where we wanted to be (in the standings). That's the exciting part of it. That's what this job is all about, and that's what the NFL is all about, and here we go.”

Coach speak. Yes. We never expect to have exciting information during a press conference. I mean, it's not like Lewis is going to slam his fist on the podium and say, "Damn it" and go into Dennis Leary style rant on Bob Bratkowski. He said the right things. Execute better, being the oldest talking point from a losing NFL coach since man discovered the wheel, BBQ ribs and corny Mentos commercials.

This one stuck out at me. "And I think we've got to go back and do a better job of manufacturing some balls down the field." My gut reaction? You're crazy. We have to bring back the vertical game? This has been an old complaint from Bengals fans this year. Slinging passes 50 yards would be great. And in truth, it doesn't really matter if they're completed. At least spread it out, make it possible that the Bengals can score a touchdown inside of five plays on a drive. No. Actually score a touchdown before reaching the dreaded red zone.

In two of his past three games, Palmer's longest completed pass went for less than 20 yards. Only twice has Palmer connected for a pass 50 yards or more... this year. Furthermore, of Palmer's 390 attempted passes, 153 have fallen incomplete. Here's a breakdown of those incompletes, courtesy of Stats, Inc.

Type	Number	% Incomplete	% Overall Passes
Passes Dropped	21	13.7	5.4
Poor Throw	54	35.3	13.8
Passes Defensed	42	27.5	10.8
Passes Hit at Line	5	3.3	1.3
Other	28	18.3	7.2
Intercepted	10	6.5	2.6

But we're not here to pile on. This isn't the point of this post. I mean, it's not like we could activate Jerome Simpson and BAM, we're the New Orleans Saints. There is no easy fix, says Carson Palmer.

“If there was one reason we’d fix it,” said Palmer of the passing game. “All we can do is continue to get better. There’s no quick fix or easy answer. We have to try to find things to tailor to our strengths and improve.”

Paul Daugherty speaks plainly. Bengals receivers are simply not getting open. "Right now, Carson Palmer is hitting eighth and slapping singles the other way. It’s not necessarily his fault, only his problem. Palmer doesn’t have the personnel, and the personnel he does have isn’t getting open very much."

And you think to yourself that Paul is right. How many times has Palmer forced passes to Chad Ochocinco this year in tight coverage?

Then questions were raised about Palmer's health Monday night. Are they protecting Palmer's elbow by calling shorter routes? Or is that merely a coincidence based on the fact that the offensive line isn't built to allow deeper developing routes? I do believe that if the Bengals offense doesn't explode, then the Bengals offensive coordinator will be in Cincinnati for how many games remain this season. And I'm not speaking in emotional outrage.

Clearly this offense is starting to come under fire for lacking a threatening passing offense. Joe Reedy writes, "A day after losing 30-10 at Minnesota, the biggest question on the minds of everyone remained – what has happened to the Bengals passing game?"

Palmer isn't convinced that there is a problem.

“We’re a team that throws it about 20 times and run it 30,” Palmer said. “Because of one loss we’re not going to go back to the drawing board or change our identity or freak out like everyone else outside of this locker room is doing.”

Fair enough. Let's take that approach and examine from the world-not-ending perspective. How many times has the lack of a passing game really bitten the Bengals? Against the Broncos, the Bengals were leading 7-6 with 38 seconds left against the Denver Broncos. Right. We didn't blow them out but we were in position to win before luck and the football gods smote the Bengals.

Cincinnati was leading Houston 17-14 at Half Time. In the second half, Daniel Coats and J.P. Foschi fumbled, Palmer was sacked once, threw two incomplete passes and a game-ending interception with 1:55 left in the game. And you can't really blame Palmer too much here, because he's trying to lead Cincinnati to at least two scores with two minutes left. You have to take risky shots. Cincinnati led the Raiders 17-10 before Oakland's Bruce Gradkowski led the Raiders on a game-tying touchdown drive that went 80 yards on 11 plays. Then Andre Caldwell fumbled on a kickoff return that led to Oakland's game winning field goal.

So maybe the lack of a passing game hasn't cost the Bengals as much as we dramatically think. We could attribute that to the loss against Houston and Minnesota. Maybe it's half and half. Something in the middle.

We want answers. We want reassurances. It doesn't make us less of fan, nor does it question our loyalty. We've been in this really long relationship with a bunch of rocky roads and sometimes we fight. In the end, there's nothing better than a Bengals Sunday and whether be it passing or rushing, we really don't care how, just win. Because really, that's all that matters.

Now, onto the Chargers...

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Redskins 34, Raiders 13

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:32:23 -0000

Bruce Gradkowski tried to get his third win as a starter in the silver and black. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

Fresh off of a win on the road as 15-point underdogs, the Oakland Raiders (4-8) took on the Washington Redskins (3-9) as underdogs once again. Trying to stay hot behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, the Raiders entered today's game 2-1 when he starts with wins over the Bengals and Steelers. Unfortunately, the game was blacked out locally. Banged up, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis were among the many Redskins out for today's game. Dive in to see how the Raiders fared with the Redskins on a gloomy day at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. A bit of rain was in the air for this one.

Darren McFadden had a nice first quarter catching the ball. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

First Quarter: A pathetic return by Gary Russell of 11 huge yards gave us the ball first. He did, however, make the only key play of the series before a sack by LaRon Landry forced the Raiders to punt the ball to the Redskins. Darren McFadden carried it twice on the opening series and basically went nowhere. Anyway, a 68-yard boot by Shane Lechler set up Washington at their own 20 for their opening drive. A five-yard run by Quinton Ganther was the only real positive play on the series. A sack by Trevor Scott, who has been on fire, and an incomplete pass by Jason Campbell forced a Hunter Smith punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins, who had some room on the return, managed to return it to his own 39 yard line. After Bruce Gradkowski hit Higgins for a nine-yard pass, Justin Fargas fumbled; however, Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot had one foot out of bounds on the recovery. It remained Oakland ball. Gradkowski then hit Zach Miller on a big play, but an offensive pass interference on Chaz Schilens brought it back almost to the original line of scrimmage of the drive. A timeout followed it up. The Raiders couldn't really amount anything after that. Another sack doomed a second consecutive drive and it was Lechler time again. A fair catch was called by Antwaan Randle El and the Redskins had it at their own 22. The defense made some nice plays, specifically Kirk Morrison and Chris Johnson, and a three-and-out forced the Redskins to punt. A big play opened up the next drive for the Raiders, as Gradkowski hit Darren McFadden on a slant for 43 huge yards. Unable to muster anything after that, a field goal by Sebastian Janikowski gave the Raiders a 3-0 lead with just over four minutes still to play in the opening quarter. Faced with a third down, Jason Campbell swung it out to Quinton Ganther on the left side. Busting through, Ganther picked up huge yardage to put Washington into not only Oakland territory, but also field goal range. Once again, the Redskins converted on third down. On the very next play, Fred Davis was hit for a touchdown. After whistled for a 15-yard penalty, the Redskins had to kick from their own 15. A 41-yard return by Gary Russell gave Oakland the ball at midfield. An acrobatic grab by McFadden at the 24 yard line capped a seemingly long first quarter.

Fred Davis found the end zone twice and celebrates with a teammate. [via cdn3.sbnation.com]

Second Quarter: Starting the second quarter, a stupid play call (a give to Gary Russell) cost the Raiders a yard. Zach Miller and Chaz Schilens each made grabs and the Raiders had a goal-to-go from the nine. After a miscue on the give to Justin Fargas, the Raiders hit Zach Miller on third down. He was short, however, but Tom Cable remained aggressive from last week. A fourth down carry and dive by Fargas gave the Raiders a touchdown as they had regained a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. The rain got progressively worse at this point in the game, as noted by commentator Dick Stockton. Fred Davis, open in the secondary, caught a pass and it was for a good gain into Oakland territory. Back-to-back plays by the Raider defense stuffed Quinton Ganther in the backfield. Richard Seymour and Trevor Scott stopped the run and Kirk Morrison and Tommy Kelly blew the next play up on a screen in the backfield. Needing 12 yards on third down, an offsides penalty by Greg Ellis gave the Redskins five free yards. So, another offsides penalty hurt; however, it didn't hurt as much. Hiram Eugene made a great tackle on Randle El and Washington had to settle for a field goal. Graham Gano, just signed out of the UFL, connected on a 46-yard field goal. We were tied, 10-10, in a pretty evenly matched game with 7:27 left to go in the first half. After a three-and-out, a great 58-yard punt from Lechler set the Redskins up at their own 21. The Redskins didn't get far at all, and some good pressure by defensive linemen Matt Shaughnessy and Gerard Warren forced a punt. Jason Campbell was shaken up after the hit. A couple of stupid calls -- runs up the middle by McFadden and Russell -- brought up a long third down. Nearly intercepted by Reed Doughty on a pass intended for Oakland's Zach Miller, Doughy was flagged for illegal contact. It give the Raiders an automatic first down. On the very next play, an open Miller flat out dropped the ball. It was a good pass by Gradkowski, too, but Miller just let it slip through his hands. Welcome to the show Louis Murphy, as he pulled the Raiders to within two yards of the first down marker at the two-minute warning; however, on the next play, a catch of his was correctly called back on the booth review. The Raiders were forced to punt from midfield. A stupid penalty on the punt called against Hiram Eugene -- not stupid on Eugene's part but rather the referee's -- as Eugene was called for interference when he didn't even interfere. The bench was called for an unsportsmanlike penalty and so the Redskins had it at their own 40. Santana Moss made a 14-yard catch and the Redskins were threatening before the half. Next, a big play to Devin Thomas had Washington really in business. Two plays later, Fred Davis scored his second touchdown of the game to give Washington a 17-10 lead. (Damn, he's on my bench in a fantasy football league.) A holding penalty on the kickoff return set the Raiders up in bad position, and there was just seconds to go before halftime. A couple of runs by Gradkowski picked up some yards, but Oakland needed more with just 16 seconds to go without any timeouts remaining. Almost getting sack, Gradkowski flipped it out to Fargas in the flat and he ran out of bounds with less than 10 seconds to go. An incomplete pass on the next play basically made it impossible for a field goal try; however, Tom Cable decided to go for a field goal without running another play. A 66-yard field goal fell short, and Redskins safety Reed Doughty grabbed it and took off from his own end zone. Mario Henderson grabbed him and slammed Doughty to the ground to end the half. The Redskins had a 17-10 lead. For those of you keeping track, a total of 16 penalty flags were thrown. Yes, this was an ugly game.

After filling in for Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell spent a ton of time on the ground. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

Third Quarter: The Redskins started out with the ball at their own 30, and more importantly the lead. A pass interference committed by Tyvon Branch gave the Redskins a fresh set of downs. Michael Huff, who suffered a stinger in the first half, is still out with that injury and being replaced by Hiram Eugene. A couple of incomplete passes had Washington in a third and long situation. A rare blitz by the defense had Campbell sacked back at his own 26 by rookie safety Mike Mitchell. A punt followed that big play. The return by Higgins set the Raiders up in good field position, at their own 44. After going down with a knee injury just before the first half concluded, Gradkowski was out and unable to return. Yes, that means JaMarcus Russell was in -- and playing quarterback, too. Raiders fans everywhere are holding their respective breaths. Needing three years on third down, Russell called a timeout as Oakland was nearing field goal range. Still, they needed a first down if they even wanted to think about a pretty good try being at Washington's 38. A big play conversion to Higgins was followed up by a 10-yard loss on the sack. Ugh, Russell didn't get rid of the ball. Rookie Brian Orakpo brought him down. More stupid play-calling from Tom Cable, the reverse went nowhere. You've already called that play once, Tom. You can't fool the defense like that. An incomplete pass to Darren McFadden set up a 53-yard field goal try for Janikowski. Missing earlier from 66 yards out, this one was much more manageable and Sebastian knocked it through for his second of the day. The Washington lead was trimmed to 17-13 with just under nine minutes to play in the third quarter. The Raiders brought the heat some more on Campbell on the Redskins' next drive, as Stanford Routt nearly got to Campbell. By the way, Routt replaced by the injured Nnamdi Asomugha. Then, on second down, Matt Shaughnessy brought down Campbell for Oakland's third sack of the game. With the third down play coming up short, a good return by Higgins set up Russell and company in good field position just shy of midfield. A second down play resulting in a first down to Zach Miller had the Raiders in Washington territory; however, on the next play, McFadden slips on a run. He still managed to pick up six yards. A pitch that went backwards forced the Raiders to make a play on third down in order to keep the drive alive. Russell found Murphy and the Raiders moved the chains. It's a step forward and then a step backwards for Russell, apparently, as Andre Carter brings him down for a loss. A false start, which didn't occur under Gradkowski, moved the Raiders back five more yards. Another penalty and then another sack totally demolished the drive for the Raiders, and it became third down with 35 yards to go. Is anyone ready for Charlie Frye yet? The punt by Lechler hopped into the end zone, and Washington began their drive at their own 20 with the third quarter almost over with. Almost off of the field, Rock Cartwright made a play on third down for the Redskins and Washington's drive continued. A couple of runs by Quinton Ganther ended the third quarter. The Redskins had a 17-13 lead over three quarters.

Santana Moss and the Redskins ran away in the fourth quarter. [via cdn0.sbnation.com]

Fourth Quarter: Kicking off the fourth quarter was Washington in Oakland territory looking to add onto their four-point lead. Not surprisingly, the quarter begins with two penalties on the Raiders. Routt was called for pass interference -- which was a bad call as Santana Moss had slipped -- and then Howard was flagged for holding. A couple of plays later, the Oakland defense tried to get off the field with Washington tryign to convert a third down needing three yards. Of course, the Redskins picked up the first down with ease on a pass from Campbell to Malcolm Kelly. A touchdown basically kills any chance the Raiders have of winning this game, especially with Gradkowski shelved. An effective screen to Moss set up a touchdown run by Ganther, a Richmond native scoring the first time in his career, and Washington had taken a 24-13 lead with over 11 minutes to play in regulation. It was clearly a great drive by the Redskins. Chewing six minutes up and going 80 yards on 13 plays, you couldn't have asked for more if you were Jim Zorn. The Raiders had the ball back needing two touchdowns and a two-point conversion. In a shocking turn of events, Russell threw a pass that was picked off by LaRon Landry. Why am I still watching the game at this point? I don't know. Campbell to Moss goes for 30 yards, and the Redskins are a touchdown away from blowout city. Some plays later, Ganther's second touchdown of the day put Washington ahead by 31-13 score. Oh, yes, it was all over by then. Russell marched back out there and was sacked. We were all so very surprised. Luckily for us, Carter totally missed the fumble and Henderson pounced on it to keep possession. Blah, blah, blah, the Raiders had to punt without a first down gained; however, Randle El screwed up the punt return and dropped it. Tony Stewart fell on it and Oakland had the ball at midfield. On the very next play, Russell was sacked yet again and this time it was Lorenzo Alexander. That was the seventh sack of the game with five of them coming against Russell compared to only two when Gradkowski was in the game. God, this game couldn't end any sooner. I'll save the dramatics: Russell was sacked on fourth down. Getting Marcus Mason involved some in the fourth quarter, Washington marched down and kicked a field goal to extend their lead to 34-13. Terribly bad went to even worse as Zach Miller went down with an injury. After another useless drive that went nowhere led by the great JaMarcus Russell, the Redskins got the ball back and ran out the clock. Improving to 4-9 are the Redskins and falling to that same record are the Raiders by a 34-13 score.

Little Billy has some explaining to do. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D -- Obviously, things were going a lot smoother with Bruce Gradkowski back there instead of the totally inept and awful JaMarcus Russell. Still, we have to grade them both. Gradkowski was a little below average and Russell was awful, so I tried to find the middle ground.
Rush Offense: F -- The rushing offense was absolutely dreadful. On 24 carries, a 2.7 average just isn't going to cut it. Justin Fargas led the way with 21 yards and a touchdown, but that stuff is something that should be achieved in just one quarter and not one whole game.
Pass Defense: D+ -- Jason Campbell had almost a field day going 16-for-28 with 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. They brought some heat, so that was a good thing but just about the only good thing.
Rush Defense: C -- It was a very average performance by the rush defense with the Redskins averaging around four yards per carry with a couple of rushing touchdowns.
Special Teams: B- -- Janikowski's only miss came from 66 yards. Shane Lechler averaged almost 52 yards per punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins was okay returning punts while Gary Russell was nothing special returning kicks. Overall, it was pretty decent and I guess I couldn't complain about the way special teams played. The coverage wasn't all that bad itself.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: It's quite simple, really. Once JaMarcus Russell came in for the injured Bruce Gradkowski, it all went to hell. Trailing 17-10 at the half, this game was clearly within reach all the way. Charlie Frye should start next week should Gradkowski be unable to go. Next up, we have the Denver Broncos who are 8-5 and leading the Wild Card race in the AFC. This was really rough in the second half. Enjoy your Sunday evening, guys, and try to put this one behind us.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Bucem Predictions

Niko Houllis — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 13:56:04 -0000

More photos » by Rick Havner - AP

The showdown between Freeman and Sanchez will have to wait a few years, until the rematch. How interesting it will be when that comes around until 2013.

Browse more photos »

The Season is winding down...with only a few weeks left, there are playoff races and draft picks to be decided and every game means something.

Here are some of the staff predictions for this week...Feel free to leave your own.

Cincinatti vs. Minnesota - I know this is going to be an upset pick, but I've got a good feeling about the Bungles in this one. Cincy has seemingly been able to plug any back (including the KC pariah Larry Johnson) and pick up a hundred yards on the ground over the past three weeks. They won't be able to do this vs. Minnesota, but Cincy also brings a stout run defense to the table (sorry Adrian Peterson owners, but it looks like two bad weeks in a row for you). This is really going to be too close to call ahead of time in my opinion, but I'll go out on a limb and pick Cincy. That's why I make the big bucks.

Detroit at Baltimore - This one is really a no brainer. The decision is made even easier by the fact that Daunte Culpepper will be behind center for this one. Being that I am going up against Calvin Johnson this week in my fantasy playoffs, I rejoice at this knowledge.

UNFNOLE

New Orleans at Atlanta - Atlanta will probably be without Ryan (Questionable due to turf toe) and may again be without stud back Michael Turner. In order for this team to be successful, they need both. New Orleans is accustomed to playing on turf, so Atlanta gains no advantage. I just don't think Atlantas defense has the pass rush necessary or the phenomenal athletes preferred to beat this high-octane offense.

Seattle at Houston - Steve Slaton has been shelved for the year, but was he really helping this team much anyway? Ryan Moats will get the majority of the carries. Seattle is deceptively good at stopping the run, but terrible at defending the pass. If they have any hopes of winning in Houston they better bring their A-Game.

BucsFanDave

Buffalo at KC

Craig T

NY Jets at TampaBay. All I've heard about this week is Revis Island, Revis Island, Revis Island. Even if he mans up, I think the Bucs will still spread the field and hit em with a heavy dose of K2 over the top. The continually improving run D slows Thomas Jones enough to stall the Jet offense and the Bucs pull out a win.... to the pleasure of some and chagrin of Suh-ome others.

Miami at Jacksonville

With both teams fighting for their playoff lives, this game is blacked out locally. Shame on you, Jacksonville fans. YOUR TEAM IS IN A PLAYOFF RUN! GO SUPPORT THEM! My goodness... anyway, off my high horse. Jacksonville will find success through the ground and air en route to a close victory.

WASHINGTON at Oakland - Surprisingly, both teams are playing much better as we approach the end of the season. Bruce Gradkowski seems to have learned the game and the Skins offense is moving right along. I think the difference in this contest is Bruce falling off a bit and the Skins pass defense. I'm waffling on this, but I say Skins by under a TD, for now.

St. Louis at TITANS - VY is questionable for the game, but I don't think it matters with Chris Johnson taking on one of the worst run defenses in the league. This should be a fairly quick game as both teams like to run the ball and have stellar RB's to do so. I think Tennessee is on a mission and takes this home.

Niko

SanDiego at DALLAS- The Cowboys probably wont throw the ball anywhere near as much as they did last week, as they need to keep pace with the Eagles who are all tied at 8-4 a game on the NY Giants. Chargers meanwhile have one up on the inconsistent Broncos. The Boys have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Philadelphia at GIANTS- Both teams need this one badly, and this game gets the national top billing because of it. These teams have split their last dozen meetings, but the Eagles cruised on the Gmen last time they played.

Mon- ARIZONA at SanFrancisco- The 49ers are a little disappointed at the overall predicament they have found themselves in this year, as they were hoping to contend for a title in the weak West. However, the Cardinals have rebounded from a shaky start to really assume command, at just the right time. After the impressive win over arguably the second best team in the NFC, a Win here could be a lock in momentum for the playoff bound Cards; for the 2^nd year in a row, practically a dynasty for this franchise.

Oakland Raiders Football:Pre-Game Thread Week 14

TheRaiderWay — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 10:55:46 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Raiders fans hope to see more celebrations like this today at the Coliseum when the Raiders host the Washington Redskins.(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Browse more photos »

Washington at Oakland

Regular Season Week 14

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders

Where: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

When: 1:05 p.m. PDT

2009 Records: Redskins (3-9) Raiders (4-8)

History: Oakland has a 7-3 lead in its all-time regular season series

Head Coaches: Jim Zorn (Redskins) and Tom Cable (Raiders)

Raiders Radio: Listen live on KSFO 560 AM

Television: Fox; Blacked out locally; DirecTV: 715

Line: Redskins by 1 point

Game Day Injury Report:

Oakland Raiders

Desmond Bryant DT Probable Back

Samson Satele C Questionable Calf

Greg Ellis DE Questionable Knee

Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Doubtful Foot

Nick Miller WR Out Shin

Robert Gallery G Out Back

Jon Alston LB IR Concussion

Ricky Brown LB IR Ankle

Oren O'Neal RB IR Ankle

Redskins Injuries here.

SB Nation Redskins vs Raiders Preview here.

Well Raiders fans, it's week 14 of the NFL regular season and the Raiders find themselves with a 4-8 record and in a familiar position as they were three previous times this season. Three times this season the Raiders provided their fans with exhilarating upset victories over the Eagles, Bengals and the Steelers respectively, only to then follow up the next week, despite a boatload of confidence, with flat performances and disappointing losses. The Raiders to a player, including Tyvon Branch, who has been asked after each victory by SABP about maintaining the momentum week-to-week, are acutely aware of their propensity of failing to bring the necessary game in the follow up week against very beatable opponents. Today is another test against the Redskins, following maybe the best Raiders win in the last 6 years last week in upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh 27-24. The Raiders say they have learned from their past and will be prepared to end this Sunday with back-to-back wins for the first time this season:

"It’s kind of been our Achilles’ heel around here for a while, is you win one and then a total letdown," said punter Shane Lechler (notes), one of the only players remaining from Oakland’s AFC championship team in 2002. "We’re trying to figure out that process of how to win two, put two together and get something going here a little bit."

To that end, coach Tom Cable had signs plastered all around the locker room proclaiming Sunday as the day the Raiders finally break through. "Back-to-back wins set Raiders on path to future success! If you believe it, it will happen," the signs concluded.

The Redskins are coming in with a 3-9 record, but that record is deceiving as last week the Redskins lost to the undefeated Saints 33-30 in overtime and have now lost three straight games by a combined total of just seven points. Washington has played six games (2-4 record) decided by three points or less this season.

For the Raiders, QB Bruce Gradkowski will be making his 4th start, much to the relief of Raider Nation. Bruce Almighty will have to deal with his patchwork offensive line after Oakland lost LG Robert Gallery for the season to a back injury. The Redskins defensive line is good, as is their overall defense, but without Albert Haynesworth, who is out of this game, the Raiders should be in a better position to run the ball with some success. Hopefully, the Raiders have finally realized they way to utilize McFadden and won't even bother trying to run him between the tackles. The Raiders will pound it with Justin Fargas, who is playing with his typical crash dummy style, but this is a game that Michael Bush must be used. With the recent success of Fargas, Bush has hardly even seen the field. This must change today and the Raiders must find ways to use the talents of all their running backs. With the running game going, then Gradkowski can then pick his spots and take to the air. Gradkowski should be able to look to the middle of the field as Washington FS LaRon Landry was torched twice for long touchdowns by the Saints when he bit on double moves. The strength of the Redskins' secondary is at cornerback and their safeties are more adept at defending the run than they are in coverage. The Raiders, with Schilens and Murphy on the perimeter will likely take some shots down the middle along with a targeting Zach Miller, who will have a match-up advantage against MLB London Fletcher, who at 5-foot-10 he is going to have a serious size disadvantage.

The Raiders defense will have to contend with the ever improving QB Jason Campbell, who, without RB Clinton Portis, lack star power in their backfield. The Redskins named this week Quintan Ganther to be their starting running back, so if the raiders can hold him in check early, they will be able to get their pass rush going and keep the pressure on Campbell. With ~~Charles Haley~~ Trevor Scott having a major impact now that he's been switched to the starting weak side OLB spot, look for Scott to be a menace to Campbell. However, Campbell certainly watch the film of what Big Ben did against the Raiders secondary in the 4th quarter last week, so look for Campbell to exploit the holes in the Raiders secondary (Chris Johnson/Stanford Routt) with Santana Moss. Unfortunately, the Raiders won't let Nnamdi stick to Moss like glue, so Moss will avoid Nnamdi as much as possible. Moss is an explosive receiver who leads the Redskins in receptions as well as receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He runs good routes and has an explosive burst out of his break that allows him to gain a step on the best cover corners.

With both defenses playing well, this could be a low scoring affair, with Lechler "the weapon" dictating field position and Janikowski and his canon left leg being the difference.

Prediction: Raiders 16 - Redskins 13

What are your thoughts and keys to today's game Raider Nation? Do you think the Raiders will finally break through and win back-to-back games for the first time this season? Let's hear your pregame thoughts and predictions.

GO R-A-I-D-E-R-S!!!!!!!!!

Poll

Do you believe the Raiders have now learned how to overcome their recent inability to follow a win with another win?

Yes, they will beat the Redskins today

138 votes

No, it will be like their other games after a win. They will lose

27 votes

165 votes | Poll has closed

Redskins @ Raiders Red Zone Preview

KevinE — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 22:45:58 -0000

The Redskins "stat of the week" is brought to you by Comcast and the new NFL Red Zone channel.

These posts get more difficult each week because the Redskins consistently out-play their opponents in the red zone, but continuously find ways to lose. If I had told you the Skins would have 3 red zone touchdowns and the Saints zero...there's no way we could lose, right? Well, we know this team well enough to know a 21 point lead is not safe with 2 minutes left.

The Raiders bring a new look offense with Bruce Gradkowski, who reminds me a lot of Jeff Garcia. The Raiders red zone offense their last three games are 2-2, 1-2, and 1-2. In chatting with the Raiders fans at Silver and Black Pride, they feel like they're going to run the ball all over us. I didn't realize how bad the Jamarcus Russell situation had gotten. He's saying his poor play and Gradkowski's success is because the supporting cast is playing better:

"Guys are just making plays around him," Russell said. "In the Dallas game after you go out and win in Cincinnati there wasn’t plays really made the whole game, you know what I mean. Going into Pittsburgh, guys were making plays for him. That’s what a quarterback needs, his surrounding players. That’s what was going on."

Redskins Red Zone Statistics 2009
	*Redskins Offense*	*Opponent's Offense*
*@Giants*	2-3	0-3
*Rams*	0-5	1-3
*@Lions*	1-2	1-3
*Buccaneers*	1-3	1-1
*@Panthers*	2-3	2-3
*Chiefs*	0-1	0-2
*Eagles*	2-3	0-0
BYE	-	-
@Falcons	2-2	1-2
Broncos	2-4	0-1
@Cowboys	0-1	1-2
@Eagles	3-4	1-4
Saints	3-7	0-4
Total	15-30	8-25

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Steelers vs. the Browns II

Ryan Kelsey — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:16:43 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Can Josh Cribbs and the cold weather lead the Browns to an upset?(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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We hate the Steelers. No doubt about it. With a big upset, we could all-but-kill our nemesis' chances at defending their title. Is it possible? Amongst Browns fans, there is a general feel of optimism going into this game. It may be misplaced, but it is not completely without reason. Namely:

1.) They are struggling. They have lost 4 straight. Including games at home to the overrated Bengals and the terrible Raiders and on the road to the average Ravens and really horrible Chiefs. They've battled injuries on both sides of the ball, locker room divisions, and pressure from fans and media. And they haven't handled any of it well. Their defense is filled with questions and their offense isn't scoring. On the other hand, they have lost these four games by a combined 15 points, so maybe a little bad luck is in there

2.) We are playing offense. In two of the last three games, our offense has looked like it belongs in the NFL. Quinn is in the midst of his longest stretch as a starter and looks more and more competent and comfortable (um, 7 TD and 0 INT in the last 3 games?!).

3.) Variables. We are still the underdog (currently, we are 10 point underdogs- according to sportsbook.com). And underdogs need variables. Things like- a home game, on a very short week, at night, historical rivalry, in terribly cold (19, wind chill 0), windy (31 MPH + whatever extra off the lake) and wet (70% chance of snow) weather. Also, injuries. You know that the Browns have been ravaged by injuries, but the Steelers are struggling too. Troy Polamalu is out, William Gay and Hines Ward are questionable. And even though the Browns have a bunch of injuries, it has lead to some surprises and solid play from guys we don't have much information on. (e.g., Moore, Roth, Trusnik, Adams, Rubin)

~~I'll still go through some of the numbers, but not in as much detail as normal. Partially because I don't have as much time (damn short week) and partially because~~ I don't think these numbers mean much of anything given the above 3 factors.

As always, the numbers are all thanks to Football Outsiders.

When the Steelers have the ball

I was surprised to learn that the Steelers are currently ranked 9th in Offensive Efficiency by DVOA (17.3%). I was not surprised to learn that the Browns rank dead last in Defensive Efficiency (23.0%)- dropping two spots after the Chargers torched us for 30 points.

The Steelers are very good in the pass game (9th at 37.9% in DVOA) and very average in the run game (16th at 1.6%). The pass game is anchored by two of the least favorite Pittsburghers: my vote, Ohio's least favorite son, Ben Roethlisberger (9th in both DYAR and DVOA of all qualifying QBs) and Dirty Hines Ward (9th in both DYAR and DVOA of all qualifying WRs). Ward catching 71% of all passes thrown his way is pretty impressive. But that hamstring is going to be very difficult to warm up tomorrow. Santonio Holmes (15.3% DVOA), Heath Miller (15.8%) and Mike Wallace (18.4% DVOA) are also real good options. And while the Browns are actually good at limiting #2 WRs (-7.7% DVOA- that's better than average!!! 12th in the league), we are worst in the league against TEs (See what Antonio Gates did to us last week) and really bad against #1 WRs.

The Steelers usually give up a lot of sacks, because their line isn't very good and Roethlisberger holds on to the ball as long as any quarterback I've ever seen. This year they are 24th in the league, giving up sacks on 7.4% of all drop backs. The Browns rank 17th in the league, sacking the QB on 6.3% of opponent drop backs.

The Browns' defense against the run is about 10% worse than average, 29th in the league. Which is blah enough. But with all the injuries, especially to Shaun Rogers, we are probably worse than that. Not good considering the wind and snow and cold will likely force more running than normal. The mediocre running game of Pittsburgh is lead by the mediocre Rashard Mendenhall (19th in the league at 4.5% DVOA). Mewelde Moore (-19.5%) and Not So Fast Anymore But Still Faster Than Me Willie Parker (-26.6%) are having pitiful seasons.

When the Browns have the Ball

The juggernaut that is the Browns Offense has juggernauted all the way up to 28th in overall efficiency. That's up 3 spots from last week. We now are a more efficient offense over the course of this season than the Chicago Bears. Wow. Before that Detroit game this didn't seem even close to possible. The Browns rank 30th in pass efficiency as a team and 23rd in run efficiency. Even with the Steelers' recent struggles, they are still a very good defense, ranking 13th against the pass and 6th against the run in DVOA- good for 10th overall. But before you get too scared, they were ranked 6th before former ~~bum off the street during the awful 08 Browns Season~~ Browns legend Bruce Gradkowski torched them last just three days ago.* The Steelers miss Polamalu. And they, generally, are not playing well in the secondary.

*Seriously, Gradkowski had the career day of all career days. He passed for 308 yards (on 20-33 passing), 3 TDs (0 INTs), and a 121.8 QB rating. Not only were each of those numbers career highs, but he has never come close to a day like that in 24 other games in the league. The last time he faced the Steelers, as the Browns starter in Week 17 last season, his rating was 1.0. That isn't a typo. 1.0. Or 9.5 points WORSE than Derek Anderson's worst game in his career- also, DA's most recent.

Further emphasizing the struggles of the secondary, the Steelers are below average against every type of receiver, except running backs (usually covered by linebackers)- they rank 8th against throws to RBs. So if Quinn is going to keep having success through the air, it probably won't be to Harrison/Jennings/Vickers this week. Quinn is moving up the QB standings rapidly. He is 28th now in both DYAR and DVOA. And that is despite not having a receiver in the top 75 in DYAR or DVOA.

The Browns running game has benefited from variety. They get good contributions from Brady Quinn's scrambling, Josh Cribbs in the wildcat- both handing off and keeping, and reverses to Cribbs. So while Chris Jennings and Jerome Harrison aren't very good, their improving efforts with the (sometimes misplaced, and usually not frequent enough) creativity from other parts of the run game result in a decent unit. Again, this is going to be even more important because of the conditions. Each team will have plenty of runs. I won't mind seeing the wildcat a HUGE number of times. Anything less than 10 plays from that formation would be a disappointment in my mind.

Special Teams

We're number 1!! After several weeks in the 2 spot behind Minnesota, the Browns have taken over the top spot in overall special teams efficiency at 7.0% DVOA. The Browns have the #1 punt return team and the #5 kick return team. They are above average in each other phase of special teams. The Steelers are 31st in special teams overall, mainly because they are -30.6% in DVOA on kick coverage! That is an absurd variance from average for any special teams unit. In fact, only one other special teams unit is more than 15% from league average in either direction (Green Bay is -16% on punt coverage). Think about this. They are 30% worse than league average on kicking off. No team in the last 5 seasons has been 30% worse than average at any single part of special teams. (Only the Browns 2007 kick off unit has been 30% BETTER than league average). And only 3 times has any part of any teams' special teams been ranked more than 20% worse than average. We aren't just talking historically bad,this might be THE reason the Steelers are .500 against a weak schedule, despite having a top 10 offense and top 10 defense.

Special Teams is another unit that will be affected heavily by the weather. Again, variables. Good for the underdog. Phil Dawson seems to do well on bad fields, and while he has tired in past seasons late in the year, he should be fresh this year as he missed much of the first half due to injury. Josh Reed also has had success in inclement kicking conditions, given that he plays 8 games a year on the mush that is the Heinz Field "grass".

Conclusions and Questions

Like I said, this one is all about variables, not really the stats. Still, we need to have a sound game plan to maximize our chances at winning and salvaging some very good feelings for a very rough season. A win wouldn't erase everything, but its something the players, coaches, what exists of the front office, and the fans would feel very good about.

Three questions that will determine the outcome:

1. Will the weather effectively hide our defensive injuries and struggles?

2. Will the Steelers special teams continue to let them down- especially the kick coverage unit?

3. Can Brady Quinn exploit a struggling secondary, or if the weather is too bad, can he continue to avoid turnovers?

With a giant assist to Mother Nature and the ghosts of past Browns teams, I think we finally will avoid losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers!

Browns 13

Steelers 13

Oakland Raiders
Desmond Bryant DT	Probable	Back
Samson Satele C	Questionable	Calf
Greg Ellis DE	Questionable	Knee
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR	Doubtful	Foot
Nick Miller WR	Out	Shin
Robert Gallery G	Out	Back
Jon Alston LB	IR	Concussion
Ricky Brown LB	IR	Ankle
Oren O'Neal RB	IR	Ankle