SB Nation - Michael Pittman

The Steve Keim Scorecard

John Morgan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:50:25 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Seattle Seahawks fans are unused to repeat failure. Perhaps a Cardinals suit can make them more familiar with the feeling.

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Adam Schefter reports that Steve Keim is among Seattle's ten general manager candidates. This is a quick and dirty attempt to review his performance in Arizona.

Organization: Arizona Cardinals

Position(s): Player Personnel Director (May 2008), College Scouting Director (June 2006), Regional Scout (1999)

Curious that perhaps the most defamed team in the NFC, bad from when the Lions and Rams were good, is now auditioning personnel for promotion to other teams. Thus is the fickle world of the NFL. I don't like it, and I don't like Keim's boss Rod Graves. Graves has served with Arizona since 1997, and few franchises in any sport can claim a longer period of losing, instability and apathy from their fans. But, by all means, let's break off a piece of that talent factory.

Keim scouted the east for Arizona, and, undoubtedly, the southeast specifically. Let us first look at the players we can be most confident Keim had a hand in scouting. I singled out picks made from Keim's particular scouting area, and listed the round, overall pick, name and college.

2000

1) 7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia

2) 41 Raynoch Thompson OLB Tennessee

3) 71 Darwin Walker DT Tennessee

Jones is still around but was a huge bust for Arizona. He split time with Michael Pittman, never averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry and was traded before the end of his rookie contract.

Raynoch Thompson sort of speaks for himself: Who is Raynoch Thompson? He was an undersized Vol linebacker that was out of the league by 2004. He is still only 32, meaning he was cut in his prime.

Darwin Walker played for that same undefeated Tennessee team as Thompson. He didn't play for the Cardinals, who cut him before a single start and after only one regular season game. Walker was claimed by the Eagles off waivers and became a productive five-year starter for some stout Eagles defenses.

2001

2) 54 Michael Stone DB Memphis

3) 64 Adrian Wilson DB North Carolina State

4) 98 Bill Gramatica K South Florida

4) 123 Marcus Bell DT Memphis

Stone never broke through with the Cardinals and is now out of the league.

Adrian Wilson is an unconditional success. Wilson and Keim share an alma mater. He is now considered among the best safeties in the NFL. This is exploiting a hometown connection to pick an absolute steal in the third. Too bad, I guess, that NC State is hardly a talent factory.

Kicker in the fourth. Kicker in the fourth. Kicker in the fourth.

Marcus Bell is out of the league after three seasons with Arizona and three seasons with Detroit.

2002

2) 49 Levar Fisher LB North Carolina State

Fisher is the only member of the 2002 class we can be pretty sure Keim had a significant say in drafting. Fisher was a standout at NC State, but lost his career to knee injuries. Fisher has knee problems in college, so this failure falls on Keim.

2003

1) 17 Bryant Johnson WR Penn State

1) 18 Calvin Pace DE Wake Forest

2) 54 Anquan Boldin WR Florida State

Johnson has been a disappointment since entering the league. He was surpassed by Boldin in their respective rookie seasons and is now a minor player for the Detroit Lions.

Arizona selected Pace with its next pick and he was a bust before Ken Whisenhunt switched him to outside linebacker in 2007. No credit is given Keim.

Boldin was a win for all involved, if, perhaps, a crapshoot win. Boldin was a quarterback and wide receiver at Florida State that suffered serious knee injuries in college and then ran a 4.71 forty. I respect Keim for seeing the potential in Boldin, but I do not think anyone expected Boldin to be so good. His health has never improved and he still regularly misses time because of injury.

2004

2) 33 Karlos Dansby OLB Auburn

3) 64 Darnell Dockett DT Florida State

Maybe this is Keim picking up speed and proving his potential. Dansby has been solid since being signed and still starts for Arizona. Of course, that's to be expected from a linebacker selected with the first pick of the second round.

Dockett has been a starter since his rookie season and a lynchpin on the Cardinals ever-in-flux defensive line. Over the past three seasons, he's been one of the best defensive linemen in football. He was considered a first-round talent, but also an underachiever and a major risk because of his battles with coaches, troubles with the law, and, specifically, his conviction for misdemeanor theft.

2005

1) 8 Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Florida)

3) 75 Eric Green DB Virginia Tech

3) 95 Darryl Blackstock LB Virginia

4) 111 Elton Brown G Virginia

Rolle is a corner bust since shifted to safety. He has played decent at safety, but credit for that goes to the person who made the move: Whisenhunt.

Green was an intermittent starter, mostly between injuries, that is now out of the league.

Blackstock is now out of the league. He played sparingly for Arizona before being signed by the Bengals -- another well run organization.

Brown was a seldom starter for the often very bad Cardinals offensive line that is now playing in the USFL.

2006

3) 72 Leonard Pope TE Georgia

6) 177 Jonathan Lewis DT Virginia Tech

Pope is a situational tight end and among the worst players at his position in the NFL.

Lewis participated in four games in 2006 and never again played in the NFL.

At this point, Keim was promoted to Director of College Scouting and can be debited or credited for the Cardinals entire draft class.

2007

1 5 Levi Brown OT Penn State

2 33 Alan Branch DT Michigan

3 69 Buster Davis LB Florida State

5 142 Steve Breaston WR Michigan

7 215 Ben Patrick TE Delaware

Brown is a middling power right tackle that isn't significantly better than Ray Willis. Bust.

Branch is a pretty typical Keim pick: Highly touted prospect, thought of as a top ten pick before a nasty run of belligerence and bad effort knocked him off most draft boards. Branch is three years into his professional career, still every bit the monster he was in college, and still a rotational player buried on the Cardinals depth chart.

Buster Davis was a terrible pick when made. Davis was an undersized, see: 5'9", linebacker completely unfit for Whisenhunt's preferred 3-4 alignment. He was cut before his rookie season, has since bounced around and is now out of the league.

Breaston was a return monster at Michigan State that has developed into a very good slot receiver. Keim must be credited for, first, securing a good returner in the sixth, and moreover, seeing that Breaston was turning the corner as a receiver. A big win for Keim, on a pick I was very skeptical about.

Patrick is the Cardinals starting tight end, but largely an afterthought in the team's offense. Patrick was a toolsy sleeper that's produced some, but is mostly a starter by default, and still more H-back than tight end.

2008

1) 16 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State

2) 50 Calais Campbell DE Miami (Fla.)

3) 81 Early Doucet WR Louisiana State

4) 116 Kenny Iwebema DE Iowa

5) 149 Tim Hightower RB Richmond

6) 185 Chris Harrington LB Texas A&M

7) 225 Brandon Keith T Northern Iowa

This is the draft that made Keim a general manager candidate and his fingerprints are all over it. DRC was a tools messiah that shot up boards during the pre-draft process. He never faced top competition in college, and many, including myself, questioned his ability to cover NFL talent. Well, that question is yet unanswered. Cromartie certainly looks amazing-sometimes, but he is also regularly criticized for being out of position, burned and, well, not being able to cover NFL talent. The Cardinals, noteworthy in this case, are the second worst team in the NFL at defending #1 receivers and were 27^th in 2008. DRC is the unchallenged #1 corner in Arizona. He is only 23, and cover skills are slow to grow. Best to give this pick an "Incomplete". It's possible DRC puts it together and taps into his tremendous talent, and it's possible his flashy play hides a bad player.

Campbell was a slamdunk and is proving so in his second season. He is toolsy, growing into those tools, scheme correct and straight beastly.

I liked the Doucet pick at the time and still think he has a bright future. It's tough to measure his performance because he is buried on the Cardinals depth chart. Doucet suffered a lot of injuries in college and that might have sapped his speed.

Iwebama has proven to be a solid member of a good defensive line rotation. He was, and this will shock everyone that's read this far, a toolsy player that was knocked down boards because injury and off-field problems. His performance declined his senior season, something that hurt Campbell and Doucet's stock, too.

Hightower has proven himself a valuable receiver, but, then, who defends Tim Hightower when Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are on the field. He has since been de-emphasized in favor of Chris Wells. Hightower is a modest success.

Harrington is now a Jaguar.

Keith is still on Arizona's roster and has played in one game this season.

It's a little too early to make much of the 2009 draft, but it further supports the basic Keim profile. In brief: His preferred scouting area is the American South East. He likes toolsy players and does not bat a lash at character concerns. Keim swings for the fences and has a high whiff rate. The 2008 draft has produced solid players, but let's be clear: The Cardinals are finishing their third decade of terrible football. They made the Super Bowl last season, but were only 9-7 in the regular season. The team changed when it signed Ken Whisenhunt, and its recent success has been built off smart leadership, a weak division, years and years of early round picks, and Kurt Warner. Warner has recovered from a mid-career funk to make a case for the Hall of Fame. That's mighty lucky. Warner joined the Cardinals in 2005 and I do not see how Keim could be credited with his signing.

Maybe he interviews well. Maybe his most recent drafts, his most successful drafts, speak more clearly of his own abilities and potential, but I don't like his method, I am not impressed with his results and I don't want to sign a person that's been an integral part of one of the worst run franchises in sports history. For every one diamond in the rough, there's acres and acres more rough. And, right or wrong, executives must be judged both by the decisions they make and the company they keep.

The 2000's: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team of the Decade

Niko Houllis — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 10:00:27 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

The one position I don't have to do any thinking about.

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As we come up on the last week of the year, it is also fitting to remember, this is the last week of the decade, one in which we won a SuperBowl. Only two NFC teams won a Superbowl in the 2000s, New York GIants and your Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So in doing this Team of the 2000s, I decided not to just pick the best player to played at any time during the decade, I will pick one of those guys if they were that much better than the others, But if someone played a position for most of the middle of the decade, even though not as good as a guy from 2000-2002, Ill go with the longer term guy most of the time. Keeping in mind "Teams of" can be subjective, so feel free to throw in your choices or correct me where you see fit.

Here you go guys...the Tampa Bay Buccaneers team of the 2000's Decade:

Quarterback: Brad Joshnson- He played from 2001 through 2003, and for those three seasons, he completed a high percentage of his passes, was very accurate, and won a Superbowl for us. Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese had good years in the decade too. In a position that has been so volatile, the guy who plays three years dominates the decade.

FullBack: Mike Alstott- For his last 3 seasons, Mike Alstott was truely a blocker, and still toted the ball with good numbers. But no matter what, no. 40 made the Fullback position famous here in Tampa Bay, and the A train is probably the most popular Buc ever. BJ Askew is a good runner up, as is Jameel Cook.

Tailback: Warrick Dunn- Just goes to show you the lack of a dominant rusher here, when a guy who played in the first two years of the decade and came back for his final year ever takes this one, but I just cant give it to Cadillac even though his 2005 year was the best of the decade. Michael Pittman was solid but saved his best for the Superbowl.

Wide Receiver- Joey Galloway- What can you say? 3 consecutive 1000 yard seasons? Thats never happened before in Bucs history. Joey Galloway was Tampa Bays DEEP threat after his first injury plagued 2004 season, and MADE defensive coordinators plan for him in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Wide Receiver- Keyshawn Johnson- He was the dominant WR on the team from 2000 until he was let go after the 2003 season. He made the tough catches over and across the middle, and was the receiver the Bucs needed to catch the attention of defensive coordinators and players. Antonio Bryant is the default franchise receiver, and Joe Keenan McCardell would have taken this one if not for his 2 year only status as WR.

Tight End- Ken Dilger 2002-2004- With all due respect to Jeremy Stevens who I think is the Best overall Tight End we had this decade, Dilger gave the Bucs a legit weapon when we went from Dave Moore after the 2001 season. Alex Smith was a little disappointing, but again, not exactly a spot on the team that was really dominated.

Left Tackle- Donald Penn 2007- Current - I mean who else am I going to pick? Kenyatta Walker? Penn has shut down some great right ends , he will be fine there for some time, as long as the Bucs are smart enough to lock him in.

Left Guard- Dan Buenning- 2005-2006- Dan was injured in the last preseason game of 2006 and believe it or not, is the biggest cause of the poor start of that year. Cadillac Williams made a great percentage of his yards running left in 2005 behind Buenning and Anthony Davis. Aaron Sears should dominate for another decade if his comeback is successful. Special Note for Kerry Jenkins who was brought in and did well during the Superbowl year.

Center- Jeff Faine- 2008-Pres: Will more respects to Jeff Christy who Centered for the first three years, Faine in two seasons has dominated the spot that calls the protections for the QB. In between (03-07) the position was a serious weak spot.

Right Guard- Davin Joeseph 2006 Pres- Joeseph is kind of having a down year, but who isn't this season right? Davin is probably on the verge of a probowl year, or several years, but lets not forget Cosey Colman who played adequately for many seasons.

Right Tackle- Jeremy Trueblood- 2006-Pres- Trueblood and Joeseph came as bookends in 2006, and got the start when Kenyata Walker got hurt. This side of the line does not have a very dominant tackle this decade.

Place Kicker: Matt Bryant- 2005-2008- Gramatica just had too many of his best years before the decade, while Bryant had one of the best kicking years ever last season, and lets never forget the 62 yarder vs the Eagles in 2006. Very Accurate.

Punter: Josh Bidwell- 2004-Present- No other player really dominates the decade like Josh Bidwell, and in a way that is a shame that a Punter holds that honor! While Tupa punted well during the Superbowl, Bidwell came here via Free Agency from the Green Bay Packers after surviving testicular cancer.

Left Defensive End- Greg Spires- 2002-2006: The Crane he was called, Spires dominated the left side with his pressure on the QB and his attacking of the run. Marcus Jones and Chidi Ahanato were bit players until Mr. Spires came to town. SInce he left, only Kevin Carter has any kind of year there. Its a big need heading into 2010 and beyond, as is every spot on the line now.

Nose Guard- Chris Hovan- Booger McFarland was my first choice, but his time is kind of split in During Sapp and after Sapp years, when he had to play undertackle. So I take Hovan's 2005- Present years as the best Nose Guard years of the decade. This is probably Roy Millers spot to lose next decade.

UnderTackle- Warren Sapp 2000-2003: He was so good, that no matter what, he is the guy for this list. Tampa Bay is STILL trying to replace him. Chadrick Darby, Booger McFarland, Ellis Wyms, and Jovan Haye have tried. What can I say. If you don't like my pick, Suh me!

Right Defensive End- Gaines Adams- OK , just seeing if your paying attention! Simeon Rice just dominated this spot since getting him in 2001 until his shoulder gave out in 2006. Even then, he had his last monster game in week 3 vs Carolina when he tried to will the Bucs to a win.

Strong Side Linebacker- Ryan Nece- He was the Sam Backer in 03, 05 and 06. The Bucs had the no.1 defense in 2005, so you could give an argument that Nece has as much playmaking ability than Cato June there. In not for time involved, Ian Gold and Alshermond Singlton would get the nod, with Singlton coming in as the best Sam Linebacker of the decade, but were going to go with Nece, who as you probably know is long time 49er safety Ronnie Lott's son.

Middle Linebacker- Shelton Quarles- 2002-2006: Little known fact, Jon Gruden was the one who recommended to Monte Kiffin that Sam linebacker Shelton Quarles in 2001 would make a great Mike linebacker, and so he did. Barrett Ruud at times appears to be the guy...Im guessing we will find out, as he has put in as much time as Quarles did now. But Quarles played it almost as well as that Nickerson guy in the 90s.

Weak Side Linebacker- Derrick Double Nickle Brooks- 2000-2008!: Well pretty much...but there is no way you could make any effort to pick Geno Hayes over Derrick Brooks, so this is the second easiest position to pick. Brooks defined the Will linebacker in the Tampa Two.

Strong Safety- John Lynch-2000-20003: Lynch has one year less than Jermain Philips, so its a no brainer here. John Lynch could have played more as it turns out, but Phlip did a great job taking over. Lynch was the cornerstone of the Tampa Two, the Safety that snuck in the box and laid the wood on ...well, anyone.

Weak Safety- Tanard Jackson- 2008-Pres: People forget how often Dexter Jackson got burned in 2001. He had a great game in the Superbowl with his two picks, but both picks resulted in a total of 3 points. Rice or Pittman should have been MVP in my book. Jackson played well when we returned in 2005 and the defense went to NO. 1 again.

Corner no. 1- Brian Kelly-2002-2007- BK never had the public's full support like corner no. 2 did. I think its because the public perception of him is his outstretched arms while Ricky Proel catches the TD against us in the Rams NFC Championship game. But Brian Kelly was a great corner, and Aqib Talib is filling the number in properly.

Corner no. 2- Ronde Barber- The Whole Freaking Decade!: Nothing needs to be said here. Even when people call him out for a few bad plays, he makes 2 for each bad one. He even did well in a new defense. Ronde Barber will forever be remembered for his run down the Vet in Philadelphia to put the Bucs in the Superbowl.

Head Coach: I wont even touch this one. Tony Dungy is a B+ Coach and an A+ Man. Jon Gruden invoked energy into a tiring franchise that needed the juice he brought...on top of replacing HALF of the offense. He did NOT win the Superbowl with Dungy's team, but he could not have won the Superbowl without Dungy either.

I hope you enjoyed this article. I had fun remembering all the players Ive enjoyed rooting for during this up, down, up and now down decade. lets hope the next ten years are fondly remembered too. Feel Free to drop in with your opinions on the players I've listed, or maybe, if I forgot one?

Enemy Flashback Videos - Miami vs Tampa Bay in the 2000s

Niko Houllis — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:00:24 -0000

Its been a decade of changes. The Dolphins try to find Marino's successor, the Bucs won a Superbowl, something Miami fans know all about. Rather than go on with words, how about some video footage to show how it all went down this past decade.

Here is Michael Pittman's great escape from 2005.

Whatever happened to parity in the NFL?

JasonB — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 13:00:31 -0000

This year, seemingly more than any other recent year, there's an extraordinary amount of really bad teams in the NFL. I figured we could take a quick look around the NFL at some franchises who are much worse off than us.

Parity Shmarity in the NFL - Inhistoric
There is a huge difference between the best and the worst in the NFL. But is that necessarily a bad thing?

Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and the Detroit Lions will be one for the history books (no,... - Turf Show Times
Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and the Detroit Lions will be one for the history books (no, seriously). Both teams have lost 17 of 18 games and 25 of their last 27. And if the Rams go 0-16, and it would make this game the only matchup in NFL history between a team coming off a win-less season and a team on its way to a win-less season.

The Revolution - David Donovan Speaks to Hogs Haven About Ticketgate and State of the Redskins - Hogs Haven
The Redskins appear to be in all out war with their fans. Their COO was a guest on Hogs Haven to try and cool the flames.

Tennessee Titans to Start Vince Young at QB against the Jaguars - Music City Miracles
Titans fans aren't expecting much as their teams turns back to Vince Young...

Parity is over… Thank God |
One of the most annoying things in the NFL over the past few seasons has to have been the word “parity” being loosely thrown around in the vernacular of all NFL analysts and announcers.

Browns fans to protest the ongoing Browns-ness of the Browns - Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
An empty stadium at kickoff would make quite a statement.

Tatum Bell Thinks His UFL Team Would Handily Beat Tampa Bay -- NFL FanHouse
Michael Pittman, a running back for the Tuskers who used to play for the Bucs, said something about how some of his teammates probably thought they could beat the Bucs. Bell immediately said he was one of them.

Chase for Perfection/Imperfection: Week 7 (The Magnificent Seven) - Inhistoric
There are five teams in action this week with a shot at continuing their perfect -- or imperfect -- records. Can all five keep it up?

Auditing the Seahawks Roster: Running Back

John Morgan — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:09:38 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Jones exhibiting his 4.51 speed.

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I have audited Seattle at left tackle, left guard and center. I have spoken extensively on Ray Willis and Max Unger, though less on Unger since he has become a pro. Today I want to talk about Seattle's running back situation.

Seattle has been without a superstar rusher since Shaun Alexander broke down. Teams that experience great success with a superstar rusher often think they need a superstar rusher to be successful. Seattle does not have a hallowed history, but running back is one position it has done well. The great Seahawks rushers have names any football fan knows: Shaun Alexander, Curt Warner and Chris Warren were all great rushers. Ricky Watters was a great back that spent a few late career years here. John L. Williams was a great running fullback.

Mike Holmgren had Alexander, Chuck Knox, Warner, and Tom Flores and Dennis Erickson shared Warren, though neither did spit with him. Jim Mora has Julius Jones, Justin Forsett and Edgerrin James. Jones, Force and James will never be spoken of with Alexander or even Warren, but does it matter?

The running game lost its grasp over the NFL before I was born. The modern NFL is a quarterback's league. The leading rushers of recent Super Bowl winners have been mostly late round picks like Willie Parker, Brandon Jacobs and Terrell Davis; and talented retreads like Michael Pittman, Corey Dillon and Antowain Smith. Davis was a superstar in his short time, so the point is not about effectiveness. Most Super Bowl winning teams have had an effective run game.

The point is that Super Bowl winning teams have not typically invested heavily into their running back position itself. Seattle is on that track. Jones is 28. The Seahawks signed him to a cheap contract after he was run out of Dallas. Jones is Seattle's primary running back. He is a good pass blocker and can receive. It's been a long time since he looked like a good rusher, but it's been a long time since he could look like a good rusher. The 2008 Seahawks collapsed. The 2009 Seahawks await their starting line to take the field together.

Stats are a red herring and even tape can be difficult to decipher. How do we separate the line from the back? Here is an attempt.

Julius Jones was draft 43^rd overall in the 2004 draft. He was the fifth running back selected. Jones ran a slow 4.51 at the Combine despite being a speed back at Notre Dame. There he set records returning kicks and punts. Jones does seem field fast, but his raw speed argues he can not lose significant speed before he is no longer a viable NFL running back.

If Jones is slowing down, you would expect it to show in his stats, but Jones' rushing and receiving longs are comparable to his career rushing and receiving longs. He doesn't look slow in the open field, he just isn't reaching the open field very often anymore.

Another thing that could slow Jones or make him less agile or easier to tackle is performance decline related to injuries. Jones has been very healthy for a back. His most significant injury was a broken scapula his rookie season. His next most significant injury was a high ankle sprain suffered in 2005. Since then, Jones has been healthy, avoiding major injuries and mostly avoiding nagging injuries.

Jones doesn't seem slower and he doesn't seem hobbled by injuries. He has developed a reputation as an unremarkable back and maybe he is. But Jones blocks well, receives well and is one the cheapest starting running backs in the NFL. His brother Thomas fits the same profile and was passed around the league before he landed on a contender. Thomas Jones has never been a remarkable rusher, but he stayed healthy, kept his speed and does the little things well. No one would argue if Thomas could be the lead rusher on a Super Bowl winning team - he was a Rex Grossman away from being just that in 2006.

So C.J. Spiller is awesome, Jahvid Best is hype, Jonathan Dwyer is big, and some of the kids are likely to crash the party, but are any of them the piece that pushes Seattle closer to a championship? I don't think so. I think Seattle could do it with Jones. And if it can do it with Jones and Jones is cheap, why spend precious resources to replace him?

ON THIS DAY RECAP- 10/16/2005- Simms/Griese injury swap Pt II

Niko Houllis — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:16:32 -0000

Simms takes over for Griese, but takes a few games before he finds success

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Yes that was today, 4 years ago! If you read this mornings NFL piece, the Miami game in Miami is the scheduled 'rematch' for that game. It was the final game for the efficient Brian Griese who got the Bucs to 4-0 on the year, and 4-1 all together. The Bucs were in command when Griese had his leg rolled up on, and that paved the way for Chris Simms to take over the team. It took a few games, until that incredible Washington game when he threw that TD pass to Edell Shephard and Alstott converted the two point conversion! But on this day, Michael Pittman was almost tacked for a loss and took it the distance, and almost got caught napping at the ten yard line. The 5-1 Bucs would make the playoffs for the first time in 2 years, and you have to wonder how we would have faired had Griese not been hurt.

2009 Denver Broncos - Breaking Down the Roster - Running Backs

Douglas A. Lee — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:30:10 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

7 months ago: From left to right, Denver Broncos rookie running back Knowshon Moreno talks with fullback Peyton Hills and running back LaMont Jordan during the team's football minicamp at Broncos' headquarters in the southeast Denver suburb of Englewood, Colo., on Sunday, May 3, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Broncos and Mike Shanahan developed quite a reputation for running the ball over the past 14 seasons. Denver basically became known as Running Back Central, where Shanahan and backs coach Bobby Turner turned several late-rounders into stars. While Shanny and Turner worked their magic in 2008 by turning seventh-rounder Peyton Hillis into a Denver cult hero, the season was noted more for its multitude of backfield injuries. New coach Josh McDaniels is no stranger to running-back attrition, as the 2008 Patriots suffered a similar fate; rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis started 3 games after being elevated from the practice squad.

Lesson learned, McDaniels and GM Brian Xanders spent the offseason turning over the depth chart. Among the pair's first moves were cutting P.J. Pope, Alex Haynes and Anthony Alridge; the departure of Cory Boyd followed soon after. Xanders and McDaniels began adding new runners at the start of free agency, signing Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington in short order. Next came the draft, and the consensus of fans and experts alike was that Denver would emerge with at least one more back; the only question was when that would occur.

Although several fans were wishing for the Broncos to select Knowshon Moreno out of Georgia, most were expecting Denver to go defense-defense and fortify the front 7 with their two first-round picks (#12 and #18). While it appears that Xanders and McDaniels were hoping for such a scenario, the draft day board did not fall that way; highly-ranked 3-4 defenders Tyson Jackson and B.J. Raji went ahead of Denver's slot to Kansas City and Green Bay, respectively. Once their turn came around at #12, Denver's goal was to choose Moreno and DE/LB Robert Ayers with their two selections, in no particular order. Hearing that San Diego was trying to trade up to #13 in order to nab Moreno if Denver passed on the running back, Xanders and McDaniels pounced on the Georgia star.

Following the draft, Denver signed Kestahn Moore as an undrafted free agent; Moore was subsequently released in June. In the week following the draft, Denver cut Selvin Young, who had been projected as the starting back in 2008 before injuries derailed his season. The Broncos then added Darius Walker to the roster, who the Texans had chosen not to re-sign. J.J. Arrington's knee problems led to a failed physical and his eventual release in late May; the transaction cost the Broncos $100,000.

After the break, we'll take a deeper look at who the Broncos enter training camp with, and some expectations as to how the competition will play out:

Knowshon Moreno

#27 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205

Born: Jul 16, 1987

College: Georgia

Exp: Rookie

How Acq: 2009 Draft (1st Round, 12th Overall)

Contract: Unsigned

Moreno arrives in Denver with the highest expectations for a rookie back since Bobby Humphrey was supposed to help put John Elway over the top in 1989. Although several stars have occupied the Broncos backfield over the past 15 years (Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns), each player was able to fly under the radar before assuming the starting role. Not so for Knowshon, whose name is a combination of his father's moniker (Knowledge) and his mother's first name (Varashon). At Middletown South HS in New Jersey, Moreno completed his career as the state's all-time leading scorer and second all-time leading rusher in carrying Middletown to three straight championship titles. Knowshon's accolades at Georgia include being named the SEC's Freshman of the Year in 2007 and an AFCA All-American in 2008. He also joined Herschel Walker as the only Bulldogs to compile back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. It should also be noted that Moreno had 551 touches at Georgia and never fumbled.

Accomplishments aside, Knowshon brings a wide-ranging skill set to the Denver backfield; Coach McDaniels has spoken of Moreno's abilities as a runner, pass catcher and blocker. Wes Bunting of National Football Post wrote pre-draft that "(Knowshon)'s vision, toughness and ability to make people miss are rare." Meanwhile, Russ Lande of The War Room wrote, "Moreno is one of the most physical running back prospects our scouts have evaluated in years. Despite his lack of elite speed and burst, he is faster than expected and consistently outruns defenders who have angles on him. What's truly impressive is his ability to move well in tight quarters, a trait that separates the good NFL backs from the elite ones. He also is a polished receiver."

While it is difficult to project just how much Moreno will play in 2009, it is safe to say that Denver drafted him to be their #1 running back. During McDaniels' four years running the Patriots' offense, he never had a workhorse back at full health; therefore, it is uncertain whether McDaniels truly favors the committee approach he appears to, or a feature back to carry the bulk of the load. That said, look for Knowshon to emerge as Denver's de facto starting running back and to catch a lot more passes than we're used to seeing out of the Denver backfield.

Moreno is not yet under contract; naturally, how quickly he signs a deal may effect his development with the Broncos. As the twelfth pick, a simple look at Ryan Clady's contract (six years, $14.75 million incl. $11.415 million in guarantees) offers the framework for Knowshon's expected deal (with guarantees about 10% higher). Either way, he is quite obviously a lock to make the roster and should receive significant playing time for the Broncos in '09. Knowshon just celebrated his 22nd birthday on Thursday.

Correll Buckhalter

#28 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-0

Weight: 217

Born: Oct 06, 1978

College: Nebraska

Exp: 9th Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (Philadelphia)

Contract: 2/27/2009: Signed a four-year, $10 million contract. The deal includes $1.8 million guaranteed. 2009-2012: Under Contract, 2013: Free Agent

Buckhalter signed with the Broncos in March after 8 seasons with the Eagles, during which he carried the ball 476 times for 2,155 yards (4.5 YPA) and 18 touchdowns in 74 games. CB also has 85 career receptions for 930 yards and 4 touchdowns. While these numbers would suggest low mileage on Buckhalter's knees, those joints haven't been too kind to Correll over the years; a torn ACL in his left knee cost him the 2002 season, while the 2004 and 2005 campaigns were lost to a torn patellar tendon in his right knee. However, Correll has been active for 49 out of a possible 53 games over the past 3 seasons in Philly (including playoffs). 2008 saw Buckhalter at his most productive (in terms of yards from scrimmage) since his rookie season, as he gained 369 yards rushing and 324 yards receiving, along with 4 total touchdowns. He did not fumble in 2008.

Shortly after Denver signed Buckhalter, he was unceremoniously linked to a drug dealer during a Pennsylvania court case. Fortunately, the convicted dealer denied selling marijuana to Buckhalter; no charges have been filed against the running back.

During his time in Philadelphia, Buckhalter was the primary backup to Brian Westbrook, filling in as the starter when necessary but averaging only 7.6 touches per game. While that number may rise in Denver, don't expect his role to change significantly. The Broncos have added Buckhalter for his versatility; Scouts, Inc. says, "Buckhalter is a productive back with a good combination of size and speed, displays good run skills and acceleration through the hole, has above-average hands with good open-field run after the catch ability." As stated above, the Broncos drafted Knowshon Moreno to be their top back; Buckhalter will get his touches, but he is still primarily a backup. It should also be noted that Correll has gotten reps as a kick returner, having taken back 37 kicks for 798 yards (21.6 YPR) for Philly in 2007.

Buckhalter signed a four-year deal in February, including $1.8 million in guarantees and worth as much as $10 million over the length of the contract. Salary details were not released. Those guarantees mean Buckhalter is a virtual lock to make the roster; of course, past history suggests a trip to the IR is always a possibility. Correll will turn 31 following Denver's Week 4 game versus Dallas.

LaMont Jordan

#32 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-10

Weight: 230

Born: Nov 11, 1978

College: Maryland

Exp: 9th Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (New England)

Contract: 3/4/2009: Signed a two-year, $2.5 million contract. The deal included a $500,000 signing bonus. 2009-2010: Under Contract, 2011: Free Agent

Also signed at the outset of free agency, LaMont Jordan joins his fourth NFL team in 2009, and his third squad in three seasons. A versatile back, Jordan racked up 1,588 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns for the Raiders in 2005. However, it was his only standout season in a career thus far marked by underachievement. After spending the 2008 season with the Patriots, Jordan has stated his preference was to stay in New England; when that opportunity did not arise, he chose to follow Josh McDaniels westward. Perhaps he sensed that McDaniels knows best how to utilize his skills; although he did not catch any passes in 2008, Jordan did rack up his best YPA (4.5) on the ground since 2004, with 363 yards gained on 80 carries. What makes Jordan's lack of receptions in '08 stand out is that he hauled in 70 passes during that career-best 2005 season. LaMont fumbled once in 2008.

After spending four years as an understudy to future-HOFer Curtis Martin in New York, Jordan received an $11 million bonus to head west to Oakland. After that productive first season with the Raiders, injuries and perhaps a bit of laziness cut down Jordan's playing time and output in subsequent years. Last month, LaMont had some interesting comments which alluded to his attitude in prior years, saying he was "out here for the offseason program, something I’ve never really done throughout my career...I want to play at a lot less (weight) than what I’ve been playing. ...I never really put in the work to being my best, and that’s what I’m here doing now."

At his best and when healthy, Jordan is quite a load out of the backfield, packing 230 pounds onto a stout 5'10" frame. As those numbers would suggest, Jordan is not an elusive back, but one who is difficult to tackle. Scouts, Inc. says Jordan "can fill a need as a power back who catches the ball out of the backfield and can be hard to tackle once he gets to the second level or catches the ball in the open field." Expect Jordan to be a threat in short-yardage and goal-line situations for Denver, and possibly as a receiver out of the backfield. His knowledge and experience from spending 2008 with McDaniels in New England will surely help him in Denver.

Jordan signed a two-year deal including a $500,000 signing bonus and worth as much as $2.5 million. Like Buckhalter, Jordan's salary is unknown. His small bonus means LaMont is quite expendable in a salary-cap sense; but if he does show up in shape for camp, Jordan's experience with McDaniels in NE, excellent hands and size should make him a keeper. Durability has been an issue for Jordan at times, as a torn MCL landed him in IR in 2006 and calf problems kept him from dressing for eight games in 2008. LaMont will turn 31 after the Broncos' Week 9 contest versus Pittsburgh.

Peyton Hillis

#22 / Fullback / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-1

Weight: 250

Born: Jan 21, 1986

College: Arkansas

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (7th round, 227th overall)

Contract: 7/16/2008: Signed a four-year, $1.755 million contract. The deal included a $49,800 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

As mentioned in the intro, Peyton Hillis went from nearly undrafted to Denver folk hero in a matter of months, thanks to the bone-crushing hits he dished out; and that's when he was carrying the ball. Although Hillis was a star running back in high school, he was relegated to fullback in his time at Arkansas thanks to the arrival of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. After the Broncos selected him, Hillis was seen as a fullback with great hands to catch passes out in the flat. He certainly showed off those skills during Denver's Week 9 loss to Miami, tallying 7 receptions for an eye-popping 116 yards and a touchdown. But his role would grow...

Injuries to Selvin Young, Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain and Andre Hall left Hillis as the Broncos' primary ball-carrier midway through Denver's game in Cleveland on Nov. 6. Hillis punished opposing defenses for several weeks, highlighted by a 22-carry, 129-yard effort with a touchdown at a rainy Meadowlands (with your trusty author in attendance) against the Jets. Unfortunately, Peyton's wonderful rookie campaign came crashing down the next week as a circus-like catch resulted in a torn hamstring against the Chiefs. Despite the brief cameo atop the RB chart, Hillis managed to rack up 343 rushing yards (which led the team, sadly) with a 5.0 YPA and an impressive 5 TDs. His receiving numbers were also notable, with 14 catches for 179 yards and a stunning 12.8 YPR. While these are relatively small samples which should not be extrapolated to a full season, Peyton's statistics are surely evidence that he is a playmaker with versatile skills and a promising future. By the way, Peyton did not fumble in 2008.

The arrival of Moreno and Buckhalter indicate that dreams of Peyton Hillis as Denver's workhorse back are distant from fruition. However, one cannot envision the Broncos' 2009 season without a hefty role for Hillis. As Peyton related to his hometown paper last month, Josh McDaniels recognizes the player's wide skill set; he had the second-year player "getting snaps at running back, wide receiver, fullback and tight end." McDaniels offered a glowing review of Hillis, saying "He's got great hands, and he's a very tough runner to bring down when you give him the ball. So he'll do a lot different things for us." Look for Peyton to fulfill myriad roles in 2009; he'll be featured at times in one-back sets, he'll be motioning out wide to catch passes, he'll be lining up at times as a fullback, and maybe we'll even see him as the tailback in a two-back set from time to time.

Hillis is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. He is a lock for the roster and should see significant playing time. Peyton doesn't turn 24 until during the 2009 Playoffs.

Spencer Larsen

#46 / Fullback / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-2

Weight: 240

Born: Mar 04, 1984

College: Arizona

Exp:2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (6th round, 183rd overall)

Contract: 7/9/2008: Signed a four-year, $1.801 million contract. The deal included a $97,500 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

As a late-round selection last year, Spencer Larsen made the Denver roster on the strength of his special-teams play and versatility. His stadium-shaking hit on a kick return in Week 4 was arguably Denver's best tackle of the year and the only positive memory from that horrific game in Kansas City. Later on in the season, Larsen made headlines as a starter on offense (fullback), defense (linebacker) and special teams (kick coverage); he was the first Bronco in team history to do so. In fact, he received the Diet Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week for his efforts. A groin injury slowed Larsen down in December, and he did not play in Denver's losses versus thePanthers and Bills.

Although Larsen's versatility means he offers Denver roster flexibility (backup FB and ILB are the same guy), he is (to this point) nothing special as far as fullbacks go. MHR's own Styg50 wrote "Larsen was only adequate as a blocking FB however, and he has mentioned how uncomfortable he would be if he was ever asked to carry the rock," in his review at season's end. Larsen did not carry the ball or catch a pass in 2008 for Denver. However, he needn't worry much; if the past four seasons in New England are any indication, there won't be a lot of touches allocated to the fullback position.

Larsen is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. The fact that Spencer fills more than one spot on the depth chart means he would be a very difficult player to cut. Having spent 2003 and 2004 on a Mormon mission in Chile, Larsen entered the NFL at an older age than most, turning 25 this past March.

Ryan Torain

#42 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Born: Aug 10, 1986

College: Arizona State

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (5th round, 139th overall)

Contract: 7/9/2008: Signed four-year, $1.903 million contract. The deal included a $198,000 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

Ryan Torain entered the league with some rather unfair expectations. As a running back and a fifth-round choice of the Denver Broncos, Torain was doomed to fail from the very beginning. After all, his draft position and injury-shortened senior year at Arizona State made Ryan the obvious heir apparent to the crown of Late-Round Denver Running Back Comes From Nowhere to Top 1,000 Yards and Turn Every Fantasy Football League Upside Down. The shoes of Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary are hard to fill; Torain suffered a freak elbow injury during training camp, and throughout his recovery there were whispers that he would be the starting running back for Denver upon his return.

Granted, the reputations Mike Shanahan and Bobby Turner were bestowed as Running Back Whisperers was not undeserved; they did often turn what other teams deemed chicken you-know-what into chicken salad. But Torain, who has seemingly never been able to stay healthy for more than a couple months, had no chance. His pro debut resulted in a single yard gained on three carries (yes, that's 3 carries, 1 yard) versus Miami. A few nights later, the national stage was to be Torain's; Denver's matchup against the Browns was televised on the NFL Network and the previously-mentioned slew of RB injuries meant it was finally Torain Time. Although Ryan showed an odd and upright running style, it worked for most of the first half, as he racked up 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Savvy fantasy-football owners everywhere rejoiced. Torain did not fumble.

But as quickly as Torain Time had arrived, it departed just like that; an awkward tackle near halftime turned out to be a torn ACL in Ryan's left knee. His rookie season was over, after just 15 carries and six quarters of football. In addition to the knee and elbow injuries of 2008, Torain lost much of his senior season to a fractured toe. As a sophomore at Butler Community College in 2004, he missed several games with an ankle sprain. The hope, of course, is that Torain is someday able to find better health (fortune?) and make good on the promise he showed while at ASU (93.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry in 19 games). Those numbers, along with his large measurables, make Torain sound like a smaller version of Brandon Jacobs. However, his aforementioned upright running style mean he's more often receiving than doling out contact.

Torain is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. Health is clearly an issue; even if he is able to practice and perform in training camp, Torain may still find himself in competition with Darius Walker for the final RB spot on the roster. But his size, talent, potential, and injury history make Ryan much more likely to be on the 53-man roster, IR or PUP list than on the Broncos' cut list. Torain did participate in individual drills in June minicamps with a brace on his left knee, which is obviously a good sign for his future in Denver. Ryan will turn 23 during the upcoming training camp.

Darius Walker

#43 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205

Born: Oct 21, 1985

College: Notre Dame

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (Houston)

Contract: 5/7/2009: Signed a two-year contract

photo via static.nfl.com

Walker entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with Gary Kubiak's Texans in 2007. A star for the Fighting Irish, Darius was highly productive despite only seeing action in four games with Houston. He tallied 264 yards and 1 TD on 58 carries, plus 81 yards on 13 receptions for a total of 345 YFS; these are impressive numbers for any back, let alone an undrafted rookie. Walker has not fumbled in the NFL. 2008 was a lost year for Walker, as he spent 5 weeks on the Texans' active roster but saw no action; he otherwise had three practice-squad stints - two with Houston and one with St. Louis.

Despite those encouraging statistics, Walker is apparently not that great at anything in particular. As Scouts, Inc. put it, Walker "is not quite as big as you'd like and not quite as fast as you'd like, but he does have some quality running skills...He adds some value as a situational player who can spell the starter and run routes out of the backfield, but does not have enough physical skills to make you think he has a chance to ever be a starter." It does not appear that Walker has had any notable injury problems.

Walker signed a two-year deal with Denver; terms of the contract were not released. It's safe to assume Walker received a minimal signing bonus (figure less than $100,000) and money will not be a factor in the decision whether to keep him on the roster. If the Broncos' other backs are healthy, it would be a surprise for Walker to make the 53-man roster. Assuming another team does not snatch him up come August, don't be surprised to find him on Denver's practice squad. From my research, it appears that Walker still has practice-squad eligibility; he has only accrued one season (2007) and during that year he dressed for fewer than nine games (6, to be exact). Thanks to broncobear for help with that one. Walker will turn 24 following Denver's Week 6 Monday Night game in San Diego.

Overall Outlook

The common threads which seem to link Denver's running backs are versatility and sure-handedness; Josh McDaniels clearly prioritizes players who have the ability to run with the football, to get out of the backfield and catch passes, hang onto the football when they've got it, and to stay in and block when more protection is necessary. Expect to see more passes thrown the backs' way, if Josh McDaniels' time in New England is any indication. Look for Moreno to be the starter, with Buckhalter and Hillis seeing a good amount of touches, Larsen filling in at times as fullback, Jordan getting carries in short-yardage and goal-line situations, with Torain's role dependent upon his health, and Walker on the bubble. As for strategy, it is safe to say that Denver will return to a more balanced offense in 2009 than we saw last year; more runs near the goal line and more draws to combat the 3-4 defenses of San Diego and Kansas City. For more on Josh McDaniels and the running game, check out this earlier piece from broncobear and myself - Divining the McDaniels Way.

AFC West Offseason Progress Reports by Position: RB

John (obviousman) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:05:22 -0000

Considering the overwhelming lack of response to the first installment of this series, I considered stopping it altogether. Then I re-read it and liked it. Seriously, what's not to like? Even if you don't agree with all of my opinions, it stands as another reminder of the turmoil this division has faced outside of San Diego. Two of the three teams have new starting quarterbacks that have question-marks attached to them. The other one has a new veteran breathing down his neck for the starting job and a new offensive coordinator. What's not to love as a Chargers fan?

So I'm going to try this again. I hope there's a better response this time as we analyze the backfields of AFC West teams and rate the offseason changes that have (or haven't) been made.

via nicklohr7.files.wordpress.com

San Diego Chargers: Change by addition and possibly by approach. Going into 2008, the consensus was that LaDainian Tomlinson was the #1 back and would return to form after his injury in late 2007. Jacob Hester had been drafted to be his backup and to replace Michael Turner. Well, very quickly we learned that Hester could be an effective player but the coaching staff obviously thought he didn't have what it took to be a backup and Darren Sproles came in to do the job.

Sproles actually wound up outperforming Turner's 2007 performance. Take a look:

	RushAtt	RushYds	RushTDs	RushYPC	Rec	RecYds	RecTDs
Turner (2007)	71	316	1	4.5	4	16	0
Sproles (2008)	61	330	1	5.4	29	342	5

What drop-off? After looking at these numbers, I almost went back on my idea that Sproles should be the 3rd string RB. Actually, that phrase isn't right. I believe the Chargers should have a RB by committee. There's so many reasons for it. One, it'll extend LT's career. Two, LT and Sproles would be healthier and more rested for the playoffs. Three, it gives Gartrell Johnson a chance to grow on the field without much pressure. I could go on and on. Anyways, I almost went back on that after seeing how successful Sproles was last season. I almost said "Ah, the hell with it, give Sproles more carries and keep Gartrell on the bench." Then I remembered last year's running game. It was poor because LT was hurt, true, but the thing that stood out the most was how it lacked versatility. Every time the ball was handed off the defense knew that the RB wanted to go outside. They knew the RB would try and win the battle with speed instead of power and there was nobody on the team to change their mind.

Jacob Hester was drafted to be that power back that gives the offense versatility. It's who he was in college. Although he was small, he was a bit of a bruiser but also had speed and soft hands. Other NFL teams were worried that he wouldn't be able to be a bruiser in the NFL and they may be right (when it comes to his running, anyway). Gartrell Johnson, to me, equals all the reasons I mentioned above. Because of their size, Sproles is just as big a risk as Tomlinson to get worn down and injured. I don't really care if either of those guys see the field in the first 5 games of the season. I want them late in the season and in the playoffs to be at the top of their game. So, what did the Chargers do to their running game over the offseason? They had their FB beef up and created some versatility in the backfield by drafting a power back.

Offseason Grade: B+. My grade at the end of the season will be more telling. I'm still worried that these three guys are not going to be used the right way. I'm concerned we're going to get to Week 17 and Gartrell, with less than 20 carries under his belt, will have to start a game because LT is hurt and Sproles isn't trusted to be a starter. I don't want playoff weeks centered around LT's injuries anymore. I'm hopefuly we're past that and this pick gives me hope, but we'll see...

via i.a.cnn.net

Kansas City Chiefs: Larry Johnson is a bum. There, I said it. My definition of a "bum" when it comes to sports is somebody who is so talented that their team keeps relying on them, even though year after year the guy lets them down. Is it LJ's fault? Well, the off-the-field problems certainly are, but the on-the-field problems may not be.

In 2006, Larry Johnson carried the rock 416 times. That seems like a lot, doesn't it? Well, it's the most amount of carries by one running back in one season in the history of professional football. Some other guys right behind him on that list? Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. Two guys that physically broke down after being overworked. Not only that, LJ turns 30 in November. So his body's working against him already. Since that 2006 season, in which Johnson went to the Pro Bowl and carried the Chiefs to a 9-7 record, Larry has had a hard time staying healthy. Yet, the Chiefs keep looking for him to return to form.

In 2007, Johnson managed to get into 8 games. In 2008, it was 12. Want a picture of how his performance, when healthy, has gone down? Lets look at how efficient he's been over the course of his career.

	RushAtt	RushYPC	TDs	Fumbles
2004	120	4.8	11	0
2005	336	5.2	21	5
2006	416	4.3	19	2
2007	158	3.5	4	1
2008	193	4.5	5	5

Every team wants a guy that can score 20 times and fumble less than 5 times each season, but fumbling as many times as you're getting in the end zone should not make you the centerpiece of an offense. Plain and simple, LJ doesn't have anything left. I'm actually surprised he had those big seasons in 2005 and 2006 considering how he was run into the ground at Penn State, but basically have the first-half of 2004 off probably helped that.

So in 2008 the Chiefs drafted Jamaal Charles. He was effective when he played (5.3 Yards Per Carry), but the coaching staff seemed to prefer Johnson. Going into 2009, LJ is again the starter. He's been a two-time Pro Bowler, a player with off-the-field issues, injury-prone and someone who is not afraid to speak out against his coach to the media. Why is KC still pinning their hopes on him? Because he's a bum, and they're getting suckered in. It happens to the best of us (I'm looking at you, David Boston).

Offseason Grade: D. Okay, so Charles is a year older and wiser. That's the only reason they don't get an F (LJ is another year older as well). Jamaal is also probably a better fit for Haley's offense because he's a great receiver coming out of the backfield. He should be given the starter's role and Johnson should be shopped, but that's not happening this year. Maybe next year. The Chiefs drafted little-known Javarris Williams out of Tennessee State this year, but if he sees the field it'll be as a FB only.

via www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Denver Broncos: Okay, let's see if I can cover it all without my head exploding.

2008 backfield: Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain

Before I get to the 2009 backfield, a crazy statistic. The Broncos didn't have a single running back with more than 76 carries last season. LT can get to that number in 3 games and they didn't have a single guy get to it in an entire season. Peyton Hillis started the most games for them last season, with 6, and even some of those he started as the fullback. What an unbelievable season for the Broncos backfield.

2009 backfield: Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, ~~J.J. Arrington~~, Peyton Hillis, LaMont Jordan, Ryan Torain, Darius Walker

Arrington is crossed out because he was signed by the Broncos and later released, I believe because he failed a physical. Is Moreno an improvement over Pittman? Sure. I could see that. Is Buckhalter better than Selvin Young and Tatum Bell? Hmmmmm. I don't know. I'd say he's about equal, but he's older and a bigger injury risk. If it would've been cheaper I would've stuck with Selvin Young. Torain has potential but will probably never see the field now and I'm unsure why they even grabbed Darius Walker. Four new RBs for a coach that's known for his passing game. Odd, isn't it?

Offseason Grade: C+. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming that Moreno is good. Not great, but good. I'm a little concerned with a change in the run-blocking philosophy because those guys are too small to do anything else but cut-block. The Jordan and Walker signings just seem like the team is planning for their RBs to start dropping like flies again. This grade is very dependant on how Moreno performs and if Buckhalter can contribute anything without getting injured.

via www1.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Oakland Raiders: I gave the Raiders a good grade when I was doing the progress reports for QBs and I immediately noticed traffic coming in from Raiders sites and forums. They liked what I said. They said "Even Chargers fans can see that this has been a great offseason for the Raiders!" I want to answer that by saying I do think that the Raiders have had a better offseason than KC and Denver, in terms of players that were brought in, but that doesn't mean I'm picking them for second in the division. Nor do I think they'll beat the Chargers this year. With that being said, get ready for another good grade for the Raiders....

The Raiders have a three-headed running game. Justin Fargas carries the bulk of the load (because he's the most consistent, in terms of performance and health), Darren McFadden is the big play guy who needs to stay fresh and healthy and Michael Bush is a bruiser who can put away games when Oakland has the lead. All three of those guys were good last season and there was no need to replace them. So the Raiders did the smartest thing you could possibly do for a backfield of young, talented running backs. They signed Lorenzo "get behind me for 1000 yards" Neal to be their starting fullback. Then they started filling holes on their offensive line with good free agent players, like Khalif Barnes.

Are you one of those people that think the signing of Lorenzo Neal doesn't mean that much? Let's look at the RBs that Neal has lead to 1,000 yards seasons:

Adrian Murrell
Warrick Dunn
Eddie George (twice)
Corey Dillion (twice)
LaDainian Tomlinson (five times)

...and the only reason he's had any seasons without a 1,000 yard rusher behind him is because he's played for some teams that split carries (like the Raiders). Coming up on 40 years of age, Neal isn't what he once was but he's certainly good enough to improve the Raiders run-blocking. He'll get the most out of those three talented backs.

Offseason Grade: A. Any time you can sign a future Hall of Famer to be in on every running play, that's going to get you a good grade in my book. With signings like Garcia and Neal, the Raiders are trying to add some greatly-needed veteran leadership to the locker room and in film study. I don't know that it'll turn into more than two or three more wins in 2009 from 2008, but it should help all of their young players in the long run. The Chargers used the same philosophy years ago by bringing in players Neal, Roman Oben, Chris Chambers, Marlon McCree and Randall Godfrey.

Divining the McDaniels Way, Part 4 - Propensities and Conclusions

Emmett Smith — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:30:09 -0000

Down/Distance Play Propensities and Conclusions

This series is the outcome of a month-long collaboration between nycbroncosfan and broncobear. In general, NYC covered the stats and Doc handled most of the writing and analysis. We hope that it sheds light on some of the questions that have arisen as to just what, exactly, Josh McDaniels has been doing with the New England offense over the past four years. It also looks at Jay Cutler's time as the primary starter in Denver over the past two years to establish where the Patriots and Broncos do and do not match up. We thoroughly enjoyed working on this project and hope that you will take just as much pleasure in reading it. Hopefully it will answer some of your questions about what to expect of the 2009 Broncos, and we look forward to your comments and critiques. Many thanks to our esteemed colleagues styg50 and hoosierteacher for their input, and to Zappa for his invaluable aid in managing the code and the templates.

Today is our final installment in the series. Previously, we have looked at the rushing and passing games of the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots in order to predict what we might see out of the 2009 Broncos on offense under the tutelage of Josh McDaniels. Now, let's take a look at how each franchise has performed at each down and distance - rush/pass propensity, production and success rates in converting to first downs. Finally, we'll spend a little time on drawing conclusions from all we have seen.

Here are the links to our previous installments:

Part 1 -Overview

Part 2 - The Running Game

Part 3 - The Passing Game

On 1st Down and 6-10 yards

Tendency and Success on 1st & 6-10 - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	844	4.51	46.0%	7.16	54.0%	23.0%
NE '05-'08	1,754	4.51	48.4%	7.07	51.6%	20.3%

Unfortunately, we could not get statistics for each and every yardage, but it's pretty safe to say that there are very few times you'll see a 1st and 6, and even more rarely a 1st and 8. So, we're generally talking here about what Denver will do on 1st and 10. We've already established that New England has shown a stronger run/pass balance, but here we see how true that is at the beginning of each fresh set of downs.

The Broncos converted more of these 1st and 10 plays into more first downs, which is probably attributable to their heavier reliance on passing plays, which naturally produce a higher yardage per attempt. Oddly, the Broncos and Pats have rushed for the exact same YPA on 1st and 10. It may be just a quirk of statistics, so maybe it's more funny than interesting until you look at the trend in YPA.

On 2nd and short (1 to 5 yards)

Tendency and Success on 2nd & Short - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	203	5.69	47.3%	4.81	52.7%	53.7%
NE '05-'08	455	4.15	65.5%	7.06	34.5%	58.0%

Here is a remarkable difference. Josh McDaniels has strongly favored running the ball on 2nd and short (65.5% of the time), while the Broncos have shown a slight preference toward throwing the ball from a similar down-and-distance (52.7% pass). Their yards per rush and reception indicate perhaps that teams knew what to expect - Denver gained a lot more on each carry than New England did, but the reverse is true for passes. Yardage aside, New England fared better where it counted - in the first-down conversion rate. It's also important to note that in different games, the Patriots would use different strategies on each down and distance, throwing in one game and rushing in the next. Since we know that Cassel was quick to pull down the ball and run, with 74 carries, that may also have influenced the stats as well.

We'd put this down to a difference in temperament and theory. Bates, in particular, would pass in every option. He used this as a chance to have a 'free play' - thinking that he could get the yards on the next play if needed. McDaniels went the other way, methodically making sure that his offense got the 1st down. While both Doc and NYC lean heavily toward the latter approach, both are legitimate options.

On 2nd and 6, or longer

Tendency and Success on 2nd & Long - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	457	4.61	34.6%	7.41	65.4%	26.9%
NE '05-'08	959	3.72	35.7%	6.92	64.3%	23.6%

On second-and-long situations, the Broncos have actually been more successful (26.9% success rate) than the Pats in recent years (23.6% conversion). Interestingly, their tendencies are almost identical - their run/pass balances are within 1.1% of each other. However, Denver has both rushed and passed for more yards per attempt on their way to a better first-down conversion rate within this statistic. This can be attributed, at least in great part, to two factors.

The first major factor is in rushing. Denver's much better O-Line, especially as the season progressed, was a huge factor in their running success. Seriously - does anyone believe that Tatum Bell, out of shape and filling in as a last-ditch effort, could have gotten his numbers if the line was still at its early-season level? The line was a big, big key to the Broncos' success as the season went on. Bobby Turner was probably Denver's most valuable factor in getting practice-squad and role players ready, but the line was a close second. To be honest, the backs themselves were a distant third, especially after Hillis went down.

The second major factor was Cutler's arm. That's one area where his strength as a quarterback really made a difference. In the new system, the emphasis that we can expect on the shorter throws will suit the arm strength of Simms or Orton.

If there is a third factor, it may be that Denver passed so much that teams at times seemed off-guard when they ran, and that may have produced some additional yardage and therefore more success on this and on other downs. It certainly shocked us when they ran.

On 3rd and short (1-2 yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Short - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	86	4.94	60.5%	6.21	39.5%	66.3%
NE '05-'08	178	3.39	65.7%	6.31	34.3%	69.7%

Again, we see a heavier reliance on the run by McDaniels in short-yardage situations, this time on 3rd down. The Patriots also managed a better conversion rate on 3rd and short with McDaniels calling plays despite their lesser YPA. It's a good example of their offensive efficiency. It's also important to note the small sample-size for Denver on these two charts (3rd and short/medium), as we are looking at only two seasons with Jay Cutler at the helm versus four years of Josh McDaniels' play-calling, and one season where the attrition at RB was enormous. Still, there should be enough here to show a trend.

This is yet another area that we can place the blame upon Bates' play-calling. As mentioned above, it is fair to say that the run-blocking wasn't that strong in the first few games of the 2008 season. As the season went on, however, and the O-Line meshed, the running game took off, but Bates inexplicably took it off the menu. It was bizarre.

It doesn't matter what kind of blocking scheme you use. If you don't know, with all your heart, that your O-Line and backs can pick up the yards you need on third and short (and even more so on 4th and short), you have a huge problem. If you have a back like Hillis or Pittman, whether you use him as a fullback or a halfback, and you don't use him driving behind your line to pick up this down, you're going to have serious problems as the season wears on.

On 3rd and medium (3-5 yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Medium - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	92	4.44	19.6%	4.19	80.4%	42.4%
NE '05-'08	216	3.92	22.7%	4.39	77.3%	45.8%

Once more, we see similar numbers, with a slightly more balanced attack from McDaniels and the Patriots to go along with a better conversion rate. The Patriots' rushing YPA continues to be lower, but they still have better production in terms of effective outcomes - achieving first downs. This is a another good example of the greater level of efficiency of the Patriots' attack under McDaniels.That's a coming change which suits Denver's players and needs. It's also another place where numbers can fool you. Yes, the Broncos had a better YPA with their overall rushing game - but did they use it enough, or at the proper times?

Combining the more appropriate use of the rushing attack with the efficiency of the short pass which New England has been noted for is going to be an exciting change in the Broncos' offense in years to come.

3rd and long (6+ yards)

Tendency and Success on 3rd & Long - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	Plays	Rush YPA	Rush%	Pass YPA	Pass%	Conversion %
DEN '07-'08	222	5.22	10.4%	7.82	89.6%	36.0%
NE '05-'08	468	4.36	16.5%	7.18	83.5%	33.8%

Again still, we see McDaniels calling for running plays far more frequently than the Broncos have in recent years, although in these 3rd-and-long situations this strategy was a bit less successful. This is another indicator of the unpredictable play-calling of the Pats. However, Denver is better in every category - yards per rush, yards per pass and first-down conversion rate.

This is a great example of the amoeba offense. They were constantly unpredictable. It's worth noting that they weren't as successful as the Broncos on this down and distance. However, over the course of the game, being unpredictable has notable advantages.

Here is another area where the arm of Jay Cutler probably made the difference. His 20 turnovers may have cost the team a lot, and he may have certain issues of professional maturity (focusing his eyes to much on his primary target, etc) but his arm, the effectiveness of his O-Line and the skill of the Broncos receivers combined to make the difference in this stat. Denver fans may take heart in remembering that two-thirds of the passing attack is coming back for the 2009 season.

On 4th Down

4th-down Success, DEN '07-'08 & NE '05-'08
	4th Dn M/A	4th Down %
DEN '07	7/22	31.8%
DEN '08	4/10	40.0%
DEN Avg	5.5/16	34.4%
NE '05	13/17	76.5%
NE '06	16/20	80.0%
NE '07	15/21	71.4%
NE '08	17/22	77.3%
NE Avg	15.3/20	76.3%

Aggression and success on 4th down - While Bill Belichick made the decision whether or not to go for it on 4th down, it was Josh McDaniels' play calls that made the Patriots remarkably successful on such attempts. Their 76.3% conversion rate over the past four seasons is nothing short of staggering. David Romer's Cal-Berkeley study on NFL coaches' decisions showed that coaches tend to make the wrong decision on 4th down, lowering their chances of winning by kicking rather than going for it.

The Broncos' sorry success rate is frustrating. They had an offensive line that wore out the superlatives and, for most of the season, a couple of good, big backs in Hillis and Pittman (to a lesser degree). What was the problem? There is no easy answer, but the tendency to pass, pass, pass too often led to fail, fail, fail.

Granted, Belichick has an awful lot of currency in New England and maybe he can afford to take these chances, eschewing the easy three points for the shot at a more decisive touchdown. Josh McDaniels may not have earned that same cachet, but hopefully he's got the guts to go for it when the math is in his favor. Belichick understood this, and he himself read Romer's study. Let's hope that he made it required reading for his entire offensive staff. Of course, sometimes going for it on 4th down is so exciting that the refs start to block.

Conclusions

So, given all of this, what conclusions can we draw? Some are simple, some are not. In a recent interview, McDaniels refused to answer some questions on the running game, saying that it was "secret." We don't know what the secret desire he hinted at with the running game is, but what do we know?

First, we know that McDaniels loves his gap blocking, using a pulling guard. Since we also know that Denver's guards have happy feet and nasty dispositions, that one is elementary. Denver will increase the rate of gap blocking. We'll also continue to see lots of zone blocking, and we love that Dennison and Turner are staying on. The entire offensive line is returning, and that alone is cause for serious joy. If the Broncos have a secret, or not-so-secret weapon, the O-Line is it.

The Running Game

We can expect a few changes on the halfback-side of the running game. McDaniels so far has made extensive use of the draw and of running between the tackles. Will that continue? It remains likely. Since his tackles in New England weren't great blockers, that could still change as he gets comfortable driving the tank that is the Broncos Front Five but only, we believe, in degree. As fine as Denver's tackles are, they will still be running more up the middle more next year. There is a long precedent.

In kenjutsu, the Japanese art of sword fighting, there is a principle - attack the center! It involves using your hara, your own energetic center, and dominating your opponent to the point that anything he does will fail. This principle is related to something called aiki - it is said that when a general who has mastered aiki mounts his horse, the opposing army will surrender. For the Broncos to apply this principle and break the will of the opposing defense, they need to be able to attack the center of that defense, combining a talented O-Line with effective inside running. It's a common principle in attacking the 3-4, which San Diego runs very well and Kansas City is changing to. The Broncos need to be able to run the ball well up the middle. The New England offense mastered that well. The Broncos' line is exceptional and they have the running backs to do so (although one more wouldn't hurt). Look for more runs up the middle this year.

One thing that the current halfback corps should love is that there will be an increased emphasis on passes to the backs. Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington are all skilled here - so are Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young, while Ryan Torain seems to have some potential as well. More on that in a bit. Blocking skills will also be greatly appreciated. Hillis and Arrington, in particular, should benefit from that. All the others have at least some skills there to contribute.

The Injury Game

Will the running game depend upon a committee? Almost certainly. McDaniels made a comment to that effect on his radio interview on 104.3 The Fan. In Doc's opinion, that's a smart decision. Why?

The modern NFL player is bigger, stronger and faster than a decade ago. It wasn't long ago that a 300-pound offensive or defensive lineman was a matter for comment. Now, having one smaller than the 300-mark garners more conversation. In proportion, that extends to nearly every player on the field. That means a lot of young, stronger and faster players. One equation for force is mass times velocity squared (F = M x V²). The increase in mass is one factor. The modern increase in speed is even more of a problem for those on the receiving end of hits.

Modern training techniques (when employed) are producing young men who are stronger and faster at younger ages. The system that moves the best of the best from high school, to college, to the combine and on to the NFL will probably continue. Combined with modern nutrition, this will carry forward to produce the players who hit harder. This portends that injuries will continue to be a constant or rising problem.

Last year, a lot of folks pointed to Adrian Petersen, before the season, as a model of how you could use a back in the traditional system of a single workhorse back. But by the end of the year, he was battered, bruised, exhausted, and his production was lacking. He's as good a back as there is in the game, but he's now working on gaining muscular weight, a belated attempt to put a bigger layer of protection around his body. Drafting him a more skilled change-of-pace back or three would do even more for him. If he isn't platooned, at least in part, his productive career will be shortened.

In San Diego, LaDanian Tomlinson is facing some of the realities of life as a running back. He's spent much of the past two seasons injured, his production is down, and he's just turned thirty. Platooning with Darren Sproles will help, assuming Sproles chooses to sign his tender.

It's a tough game, and it won't get easier. The platooning system is one way of minimizing injuries, maximizing team production and increasing the life-span of your running backs. Doc believes that it's here to stay.

There may have been an over-emphasis on the role that injuries played in the Broncos' 2008 season. When the injury bug hit New England, they responded by bringing BenJarvus Green-Ellis up from the practice squad. In two games, as the primary ball-carrier, he produced 162 yards rushing with 2 touchdowns on 41 carries. In fact, the Patriots' balance actually increased from a 46.1%/53.9% rush/pass split to 75 rushes and 70 passes in those two games (51.7% rush). They responded by tossing the norms aside and rushing the damned ball. Although the Patriots split the two games (losing a heart-breaker in Indy and beating Buffalo), they dominated the clock with an average TOP of 36:02.

The Passing Game

The passing game should see a lot of changes, and we believed that Cutler would benefit from it. Since he's gone, could Simms and Orton also look for better numbers? Almost certainly. Not bigger - better. We felt like the Broncos lost the difference. The Patriots' emphasis on accuracy, consistency and taking what you are given instead of forcing in an effort to get the big play will help them maximize their natural gifts. The use of the running-back pass will also help, placing an emphasis on other check-down receiving options.

Keep in mind that as of right now, the Broncos have kept Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley and Chad Jackson (for now), added Jabar Gaffney and have Scheffler and Graham as well as lesser luminaries. With the return of the entire offensive line, Denver has kept far more of its passing game then it has lost. The quarterbacks will show different skills, but both are talented young men. Given Coach McDaniels' level of knowledge and skill, it's not difficult to see that the Broncos' offense is in very good shape entering 2009.

Last season, Doc felt that Jeremy Bates had lost his way in the passing game by Week Four, particularly in one area. Do you remember the incredible stutter route with which Royal destroyed DeAngelo Hall in the Monday Night opener? Royal's early double-fake routes? Many of the innovations that thrilled us as fans in the first quarter of the season seemed to get lost as the season progressed. We've put it down to immaturity in coaching. The Broncos didn't make good adjustments and they left pieces that worked in a box, kicked under the bench.

This is another area where McDaniels' background could be a tremendous fit with the current Denver team. His maturity as a play-caller is undeniable. Those who question his professional intelligence need to spend some time with the Patriots' 2007 offensive stats. Even a team with the best of players needs the best of coaching to succeed.

New England has a player with great talent at receiver but who had a reputation for letting his emotional nature interfere with his personal life and professional career in Randy Moss (although he seems to have cleaned that up). Now, McDaniels has Brandon Marshall to mentor. The Patriots' passing attack also featured the great route-running of Wes Welker. Now Eddie Royal's abilities can be honed, developed and maximized in the same way, a thought that has to bother opposing defensive coordinators. And then there is Jabar Gaffney, already familiar with McDaniels' terminology and scheme and a solid, productive receiver in his own right. If you add Stokley, whose slot running is at times similar to Welker's, perhaps Chad Jackson and potentially, we believe, a receiver or tight end from the draft, you have a fantastic fit, merging old with new.

Tight Ends

Don't expect for a minute that Denver wants to trade Tony Scheffler unless the contracts have been signed. McDaniels used tight ends extensively in 2005 and even in 2006, but three things happened - Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the exit of Daniel Graham.

Although Graham has always wanted to be used more as a receiver, he's too valuable as a two-way threat. Graham was lauded by McDaniels when the two worked together, and with the preference for the pass and for multiple receivers including a tight end, Scheffler will be likely to get his catches if he stays healthy.

The H-back Role

Consider, for a moment, the possible role of the player that we like to call an H-back. As those of you who have read Doc's article The H-Back: Using the Magic Option know, he's always a little leery of this term, because it's often used without context or specific meaning. However, for right now, let's consider it as a running back who can play near the line and receive, but who can function in the running game as well - carrying, blocking in addition to his position as a back/receiver.

Doc: I know that I've mentioned Peyton Hillis in this role, and it's impossible to ignore his potential effectiveness as an H-back. But to pigeon-hole him in that position is to ignore how New England employed their running backs at times.

McDaniels employed a shotgun-spread formation with two or three wideouts, one tight end and a back, all spread out across the field near the line. At times he would do this with only four players - two wideouts, one tight end and one back, but he could and did substitute an extra WR or TE into the play. The running back was simply used as a receiver. Could Hillis be effective in this role? Heck Yes! He could do some serious damage.

But, so could Buckhalter, Arrington or Jordan. Many people have questioned McDaniels' acquisition of these players without carefully considering the context of his play-calling. Taken in the context of adding weapons to the arsenal whose tactics match those McDaniels employed in New England, they make perfect sense - and Young and Torain, if they can stay healthy, could certainly flourish here as well.

In one sense of this all-too-often loose term, any and all of these players can move into the H-back role. We often limit our thinking to a back/tight end who plays near the line in addition to the tight ends. That's one way to talk about it - perhaps the closest to what HoosierTeacher spoke of in his seminal piece, Football University - The Coming Storm (Magic 3). But whatever the terminology, New England played a running back in a wideout role in addition to the tight end(s) commonly, and that's a potent weapon that all of Denver's current backs can provide.

Since the Patriots' version of the spread formation tried to expand the field horizontally as well as vertically, look for increased use of routes that employ unusual angles, as New England did with Welker, bringing him across the field to that low crossing-route. Expect to see the tight end to drop into a halfback slot, multiple tight-end sets that will often look familiar and a lot of motion from the tight ends. Anticipate more receivers on the field: wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Unless there is a major reason, look for the fullback (whoever it is), to have a limited, but essential role - keeping the blitzers off the quarterback. And expect McDaniels to thank his karma for permitting him to use the Denver O-Line.

We believe that the new season will see an increase in the Broncos' scoring. The problems that the Broncos had were generally ones in which the coaching played a big role. The discomfort with running effectively at the goal line was sad to see. Next year, the play calling will be quite different. If history is any judge, it will be much better.

And finally - expect the plays to change each week, and to see the Broncos finally make offensive and defensive adjustments during the games and during the season. It will take time to establish the new offensive and defensive approaches. This is not a small thing that Denver has decided to do. But in the end, we believe that all signs point to a good outcome, and a steady development of the Broncos' players and team over the next two years. McDaniels understands how to win now and build for the future concurrently. His words and

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 12:00:11 -0000

Since everybody likes my stuff at its shallowest and most nearsighted, I am going to try hard to stick with that program this week, as always. Thing is, to make the point I am going to attempt to make, I'll necessarily be borrowing from some pretty deep and farsighted economic concepts. Just take comfort in knowing that somebody else thought of them, not me, and try hard to picture me as just the meathead football guy who talks about what players and teams and games look like on video. Thanks in advance. Ready,,,,,,,,,, BEGIN.

1. Recall for a moment, if you've studied any economics, the Fundamental Economic Problem. There is scarcity in any economic system, or, to state it more simply, the world's finite resources are insufficient to satisfy all human wants. From this truth springs forth the concept of resource allocation, which is where we're heading today.

A professional football franchise is part of many economic systems, from the global economy, to the United States economy, to the regional and municipal level, and a league-wide level. It is also an economic system unto itself, with its own wants, and its own constraints. Decisions are made vis-a-vis the best way to maximize the utility of the factors of production, and as a consequence, to maximize the productivity of the system.

The maximum-productivity equation is being re-thought for the Broncos right now, obviously, with new blood in both the head coach and GM roles. Our team has resources, including, I hope, the new people in those two jobs. There are also constraints, which we're going to think about today, as a backdrop for this discussion.

An NFL team is limited in the amount of money it can spend on player personnel, in the form of a salary cap. The salary cap is notionally the same for each team, although teams are given credits and/or penalties against the previous year, depending on player earn-outs of incentives. Also, TV revenues are split evenly among the 32 teams. This is nice and socialist, and it encourages parity, which is key to the NFL's wide appeal. (Paraphrasing the words of Art Modell, the NFL is the only example in America where 30 (now 32) rich, white Republicans choose to conduct their business in a socialist manner.)

Total revenues of each team are not even, which adds an interesting dynamic to the mix. Cash-rich teams like the Redskins, Jets, and Cowboys can afford to pay bigger signing bonuses than smaller-market teams like the Bills and Bengals. I strongly believe that being really cash-rich works against the best interest of managing the football team, which i will circle back to shortly.

You run a football team, and you have $123 million to spend, with which to field a winner. What do you do? Well, the first thing I'd do is figure out what type of resources make teams win. This amounts to a large data analysis project on historical performance.

In my 20+ years of exposure to football, it has occurred to me that winning teams tend to have very good QBs, and they tend to be good on the offensive and defensive lines. You have to be solid in the other areas, but these are the keys, at least in my opinion. A guy who would almost certainly agree with me is Bill Belichick, and I think we're going to see that Josh McDaniels is of the same mindset.

If you look at the Patriots, the thing that jumps out is how highly they value Defensive Linemen. All three of their starters were their own first-round picks. By contrast, if you look at their LB corps and their secondary, it's mostly solid, cheap, spare parts kind of players. Junior Seau was really good for a long time, but he hasn't been for 5 years now. These days, he is merely competent. Same story with Rodney Harrison in the secondary. Deltha O'Neal was never much more than competent, and now he struggles to even toe that mark. They make do with these guys, because a lot is invested in their front 3, and lately, 2 LBs (Adalius Thomas and Jerod Mayo.)

Decisions were made as part of a resource-allocation strategy to proceed that way. This has been happening in Denver throughout the Shanahan era, also, but with a different strategic approach than what I think we're about to see.

The way I see the world, the best way to determine which resources to value the most highly, is to evaluate the skill-sets of each role in your productivity plan, and value those resources possessing the least common skill-sets the most highly. The world does this everyday in labor markets. Why does a medical doctor make more money than a guy flipping burgers at McDonald's? I'm sure that there are a few very industrious burger-flippers who work harder than some lazy doctors. Society values the doctor's work more highly, because not just anybody could do his/her job. Any idiot can flip burgers at McDonald's.

Quarterbacks are valued the most highly in the NFL, because their skill-sets are very rare, and because the fact that they touch the ball on every play boosts their value. You need a very good QB, and you'll need to pay him like one. That much is clear. Additionally, you'd like a really good Left Tackle to protect your QB. A good pass-rusher comes next, because defensively, nothing works better than hitting the QB. Then you'll take a run-stuffing interior defensive lineman, and then on to a CB to cover the other team's best receiver. After that, you start looking at receivers, interior offensive linemen, safeties, and linebackers who aren't pass-rushers. Then, finally, you get to running backs, tight ends and specialists.

If you look at pay scales in the NFL, it follows that order pretty closely. RBs and WRs get inflated a little higher than they should, because they are statistic-generating players. This is how a guy like Derrick Ward is going to strike it rich next weekend, when, if he were a lineman with no stats, he'd be known as a middle-of-the-pack guy. He's solid, but not special. Other than that, the scale follows a scarcity-dependent scheme.

One of the reasons I like NationalFootballPost.com so much is that they don't hesitate to apply examples from other sports to football. They realize that there are lessons to be applied to football, from other sources. Eric Musselman, who was a coach for a few NBA teams, writes on there from time to time, just about coaching in general. It's very value-adding, in my opinion.

Because an NBA roster only has 12 players on it, and because they also have a salary cap, I want to use them to make my point. There are only three classes of player in the NBA. There are stars, there are role players, and there are warm bodies. An NFL roster should be thought of similarly, although the "warm body" class of the NFL is less prevalent, and tends to include 2-3 young developmental types, at the most. In football, almost every player on the team will see action in one phase of the game or another.

Where NBA teams always run into problems is when they confuse the classes of the players at the edges of each group. You picked a guy in the last part of the first round of the draft 3 years ago. He's a solid player, and he averages 15 points per game, and he may be able to do more with increased minutes. Do you pay the guy star money, or do you let him walk?

Pretty clearly, you have to let him walk away. He's a good player, but he is replaceable. An NBA roster needs 2-3 stars, 5-7 solid role players (who are paid like role players,) and 2-3 warm bodies for practice.

A strong personnel department knows that it is in the business of consistently replacing its role players. That is 90% of its charge. The other 10% is contingency planning for the loss of irreplaceable players, which you hope only happens at retirement time, but can happen with injuries too. That 10% is where you draft Matt Cassel in the 7th round, thinking that with 3 or 4 years of coaching, he may be able to fill in if Tom Brady ever gets hurt. With the 90% of your focus, you're looking at OLBs to replace Mike Vrabel next year, and safeties to replace Rodney Harrison, this year or next.

NFL teams have to be constructed in a balanced way, like NBA teams, or you get the 2008 Cowboys, or the 2001 Redskins. It looks great on paper, but it doesn't work on the field. The cash-rich teams are the ones who tend to run into this, and then they go to cap hell later, once the prorated bonuses sit on the cap as dead money. It's detrimental to their operations, obviously. You can pay out a bunch of cash in a front-loaded deal, but you have to pay the price over the life of the contract.

If the Broncos want to compete for the playoffs this year, they're clearly going to have to overpay for a few of somebody else's replaceable players. This year, I am okay with that, as long as the need to do so diminishes every year, into the future. You'd like to get to the point like the Chargers, where you're not generally signing any free agents at all. Some of your replaceable players leave, and you get compensatory picks for them. That's doing it the right way, there.

For now, the Broncos need 5-7 new defensive starters, through a combination of the draft and free agency. Best case scenario, to me, is that you find 3 guys who can start as productive rookies in the draft, and that's if you draft really well. Filling those spots starts on Friday. Let's hope for some good shopping, and wise resource allocation.

2. I promised I'd list 10 defensive players I am interested in as free agents. Here goes.

a. Chris Canty DE Dallas Cowboys - We need a legitimate 5-technique DE. Canty is the best one available, and he's only 26 years old. He's 6'7" and 300 pounds, and he's a difficult assignment for a RT in the running game. What I really like about him is that he tries hard every play, which is always a question for a D-Lineman. Canty is still the number 1 free agent on my list, weighing value and cost.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Chris Canty	16	3.0	23.5	0	0	0	25	12	37

b. Mike Wright DE New England Patriots - This is another 5-technique guy, who has played very well as a rotation player for the Patriots. He is 26 years old, and a bit shorter and stockier than Canty at 6'4", 295 pounds. He really played his best football this season, as injuries gave him more minutes than he'd been accustomed to. He's going to get paid, but not as well as Canty will.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Mike Wright	10	2.5	24.5	0	0	0	22	6	28

c. Igor Olshansky DE San Diego - Igor likely won't be back in San Diego, because he's exactly the kind of player I mean when I cite replaceable role players. He's really just a competent guy, and nothing special. I think he has less value to the Broncos than Canty or Wright would.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Igor Olshansky	15	2.0	1	0	0	0	20	8	28

d. Channing Crowder ILB Miami - Crowder is only 25, and he's very talented. He really started to put it all together this past season, after playing somewhat in the shadow of Zach Thomas in the past. There was no talk of Thomas being missed in Miami this season, which is saying something. Crowder is going to cost some money, but he's at the top end of the role-player class, and has the potential to get to the bottom end of the star class. To the Broncos, I think he's worth what it will cost to get him. To the Dolphins, it's pretty clear that he isn't, as it appears they won't be involved in the bidding at all.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Channing Crowder	15	0	0	0	0	0	92	21	113

e. Andra Davis ILB Cleveland - Davis is 30, which is old for this list. He's experienced in the 3-4, and he's a backup/one-year stopgap/starter type. He'll be cost-effective, and he'll produce more than he gets paid for. Both he and Crowder are from the University of Florida, and both played in 40-fronts there, and transitioned into 30-players at the NFL level.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Andra Davis	16	0	0	1	4	0	57	26	83

f. Andre Goodman CB Miami - The bad news is that Goodman is 30. The good news is that he just had, by far, the best season of his career, and it's a relatively low-mileage 30. This is the guy who was in Brandon Marshall's pocket and directly caused his worst game of the season. The guy looked like a legitimate #1 CB all season. I like Goodman on a shorter-length deal, and I think he is a better player than the next two guys I'm about to list.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Andre Goodman	16	0	0	5	53	0	33	6	39

g. Ron Bartell CB St. Louis - I was all proud of myself for being onto this guy, and then it slipped into the MSM that the Broncos were interested in him. He's big, physical, and smart, and he does his best work in press man-to-man coverage. I saw him not tackle all that well in run support, which detracts a little bit from his value. I think he's a solid #2 corner, and should be in consideration.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Ron Bartell	15	1.0	4	3	29	0	54	3	57

h. Jabari Greer CB Buffalo - Greer is a good nickelback, and a passable #2 CB. He's my third choice at the position. If you're wondering why not Bryant McFadden, it's because I think he isn't a very good football player.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Jabari Greer	10	0	0	2	75	0	31	6	37

i. Sean Jones SS Cleveland - Jones is 26, and has been an impact player in the League when healthy - especially in 2006, when he should have made the Pro Bowl. He's experienced, and he's a thumper in the running game, who shows good tackling form. The thing I've always liked about him is that he's also good in coverage, especially for a SS. He's very high on my list, as I have seen a lot of him, living in Cleveland.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Sean Jones	12	0	0	4	27	0	45	7	52

j. Yeremiah Bell SS Miami - I know, I know. That's 3 Dolphins. I love Yeremiah Bell, which I have mentioned before several times. He was Miami's leading tackler, and he's extremely active, and instinctive in finding the ball. His knock is that he is 30, and he doesn't really catch the ball so well, but nobody's perfect.

		Sacks		Interceptions			Tackles
	G	Sacks	YdsL	Int	Yds	IntTD	Solo	Ast	Total
2008 - Yeremiah Bell	16	1.0	3	0	0	0	100	20	120

3. So, let's say I have my druthers. As of February 23, 2009, my ideal off-season looks something like this.

Free Agents				Draft

Name	Pos	Initial Cap Number (MM)	Round	Name	Pos	School	Consensus Grade
Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	1.5	1	Brian Cushing	LB	USC	1st
Michael Pittman	RB	1	2	Ron Brace	DT	Boston College	2nd
Chris Canty	DE	6	3	Scott McKillop	ILB	Pittsburgh	3rd
Channing Crowder	ILB	5	4	Derek Pegues	S	Mississippi St	3rd-4th
Andre Goodman	CB	5	5	James Davis	RB	Clemson	4th-5th
Sean Jones	SS	4	5	Sammie Lee Hill	NT	Stillman	5th
			6	Ellis Lankster	CB	West Virginia	5th-6th
		22.5	7	Ryan Succop	K	South Carolina	7th-FA
			7	John Gill	DT	Northwestern	7th-FA

So, the starting defense looks like this, in my concept.

Why Cushing at 12, and not Maualuga? Because pass rushers are rarer than inside-pluggers, and because Cushing reminds me of Kevin Greene when I watch him.

4. Andre Smith must be the stupidest human being alive. He was in the mix to be the first pick in the draft, and by showing up to the combine fat, unprepared and without an agent, and then leaving Indianapolis early without telling anybody, he probably just fell out of the top 10. Well, unless the Raiders take him, which is always a possibility. In any case, he cost himself a lot of money.

5. I've been seeing a bit of Jon Gruden on NFL Network lately, and he ought to stick to coaching. He's a pretty bad fit for TV, because he can't seem to get away from coach-speak and cliches.

6. As I watched the combine coverage, there was a big disconnect between the unofficial 40-times and the official ones. Ian Johnson ran a 4.38 unofficially, and the official time on him was almost a tenth-of-a-second slower. It seems that this shouldn't be the case, and if the league is going to announce the results, they ought to announce them officially, in real-time.

7. I can't believe I spent my whole afternoon Sunday with the combine on, but I did. I was doing a bunch of other stuff simultaneously, including writing part of this, but it was on long enough that I got some material twice.

8. The following are my uninformed predictions for the landing spots of 10 top free agents.

Kurt Warner - Arizona

Derrick Ward - Cleveland

TJ Houshmandzadeh - Seattle

Jason Brown - Detroit

Albert Haynesworth - Tampa Bay

Bertrand Berry - Arizona

Bart Scott - Baltimore

Ray Lewis - Dallas

Brian Dawkins - Philadelphia

Jermaine Phillips - Chicago

See you next week, when we'll discuss early free-agent signings around the NFL.