SB Nation - Sam Aiken

Game Recap: Patriots defeat Panthers, 20-10 and find new identity

MaPatsFan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:57:10 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

"We knew he was going to shut it down," Panthers cornerback Chris Gamble told me after the game. "That's what we wanted to do him. That's what we did. ... He'd just give up a lot ... Slow down, he's not going deep, not trying to run a route. You can tell, his body language." Gamble continued ... "I know everyone who plays against him, they can sense that. Once you get into him in the beginning of the game, he shuts it down a little bit."

Uhmm... Didn't Chris Gamble's team, like, LOSE?!? These are very tall words from a guy who contributed yet another L to his team's record. When he's watching the Patriots in January, maybe he can take solace in Randy Moss' bad day against the Panthers. Yeah, that's the ticket. Until then...SHUT.YOUR.PIE.HOLE!! My personal opinion? Moss doesn't dog it so much as change his speed and rhythm to throw DB's off. Did he have a rough day against the Panthers? Yep. How about Miami? Sure. But when you're the ONLY deep ball threat on a team, the opposition comes gunning for you. That's a lot of weight to carry on your shoulders. Doggin' it? Please...

It was an ugly win but a win none the less. Would I have preferred stellar, blowout, 2007-type play? You betcha. Would I have loved to see Moss connecting with Wonderboy on a long bomb or two? Sure. Is it going to happen this year? I don't think it will. So what do we have? What's going on that leads us to a glimmer of hope for the current incarnation of the New England Patriots?

I wrote at the beginning of training camp that I was so tired of all the hoopla surrounding Tom Brady's return. I was so sick of the ESPN/SI/Whatever... lovefest that I wanted to vomit. Every rival blogger I corresponded with would ask me what I thought and my catch phrase was, "Cautiously optimistic." The media billed the return of Tom Brady as the Return of the King (my guess is the Hobbits were named Wes and Julian, but I digress). Bleh. In reality, this is a team that for the first 2/3 of the season struggled to be a 2007 incarnation of itself. The difference? There were many, but I'll give you 2: Jabbar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth.

Neither of them is a stellar receiver, but they were lethal as #3 and #4 guys. Put Moss, Welker, Gaffney, and Stallworth on the field and you likely witnessed grown men on the opposition soiling themselves. Technically, it's called "spreading the field". I called it a freakin' JSF aerial assault. The biggest threat today? Well, other than Wes Welker, who's making a case for the best wide receiver of 2009, you have ~~special teamer~~ Sam Aiken and rookie Julian "Broken Forearm" Edelman. Hmm... What could be wrong, what could be wrong?

I had every intention of writing a full fledged game recap with stats and play-by-play analysis and things and stuff, but my ADHD brain got in the way (did you know the third of an Aminor is a C?). Where was I... Recap, things, stuff... Oh Yeah! This is a team that has struggled all year to find its identity. The absolute "broadside of a barn" misses with Greg Lewis and Joey Galloway cost us dearly. The loss of veteran RB Fred Taylor cost us dearly. Playcalling lost its creativity. I truly felt like this team was a ship without a rudder. Until this past Sunday, that is. No, I'm not delusional enough think the ship has been righted, but I do think they're beginning to find their way. Why? Read on, my captivated friends.

For most of the season, we have complained this team can't finish a game. They wrack up a crapload of points in the first half and then fizzle out in the second. We've seen it time and time again in big games against the Colts and Dolphins, to name a few. And it was true. Our New England Patriots seemed to have ZERO staying power. This past Sunday, however, I saw something that gave me hope. It was a running game. Bill Belichick has finally realized that his passing attack is not what it used to be, that Tom Brady bombs to Randy Moss are not going to work. So he put Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk to work. They ate turf, they fought, they grinded to the tune of 187 yards and 1 TD. Finally, coach Belichick didn't abandon the running game. Oh, and did I mention TE Benjamin Watson scored the other TD? I have been whining that Brady needs to find Watson more often and gets the ball to him for 6. Coach? Call me anytime. Keep it coming, would be my advice.

Only time will tell, but I think they're finally finding their identity. They're abandoning 2007 and facing the cold, hard reality of what they have to work with. Let's hear it for the 2009 Patriots!!!

Keys to Winning: Panthers @ Patriots

MaPatsFan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:58:44 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

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4 late players sent home on Wednesday? One (Adalius Thomas) a healthy scratch for today? Tom Brady a little bruised and banged up? Trouble in paradise?

Much has been made of "Late Gate", of Bill Belichick's turning away of 4 players for tardiness. I'm sure our rivals will turn this into, "There they go. Here comes the downhill slide." Right. Like their own teams have never had discipline problems. Funny thing about speaking out on those matters. Chances are they're living in a glass house. Adalius Thomas was benched for today because Belichick thought someone else could give them a better chance of winning. It could be a little extra discipline for being the only one of the "Late Four" who spoke out about the incident. Randy Moss, considered by many rivals to be a hopeless curmudgeon, did the right thing and went about his business, keeping his mouth shut. Discipline stays in the building.

At any rate, this is about our upcoming matchup with the Panthers. More after the jump.

With QB Matt Moore in for Jake Delhomme, the Panthers have to rely on their backup QB to matchup against a riled up New England Patriots team...in their own house. This won't be easy for Carolina, hopefully. After 2 heart wrenching losses on the road (the first, a dismantling by New Orleans and the second, a heartbreaker to division rival Miami) I'm betting on Belichick being aggravated and unloading on his players this past week.

Carolina is going to pound the rock with QB Matt Moore under center. Running back Jonathan Stewart is freight train on legs at 5-10 235 lbs. And 120 yards, even against Tampa Bay, is nothing to sneeze at. And New England is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game. It would make no sense for the Panthers, ranked 27th in the passing game, to air the ball out. Yup, pound the rock with their 3rd rated rushing offense.

On our side, Julius Peppers is going to be a problem. Whether he's motivated or not by a huge franchise paycheck this year, I think he'll be interviewing for a job today. He knows there was talk about him moving to the Patriots this season, but the price tag was just too high. Julius would also have to be thick as a brick to be unaware of our troubles putting together a consistent pass rush. Great pass rusher and a team who desperately needs a good pass rush... hmmm.

You can bet the Panthers have been watching game film, especially the Miami matchup. Shutdown Randy Moss and you take away the deep ball, for the most part. Yeah, there was that 81 yarder to Sam Aiken, but it's almost a forgone conclusion that Brady will try to force the ball to Randy at one time or another. We need to spread the ball around a LOT more. Of course Wes Welker will be one of the primary targets. But is Moss the right early look? Sam Aiken needs to be in the picture and I believe Benjamin Watson needs to play a big role in this game. He's been underutilized this year, but has delivered consistently when asked to. I've said many times in these stories that he's our secret weapon, but always seems to get few looks from Wonderboy. Bill, are you listening? Throw to "Big Ben"!!

We're playing at home, the team is fired up, and we need this win to keep Miami at a distance. I'll go into serious mourning if we lose another Division title to the Dolphins with a tie breaker.

Prediction: Patriots, 28-17.

Dolphins vs Jaguars: Three Key Matchups

Matty I — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 05:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

From the "phrases I never thought I'd say" file: I love me some VD!

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On Sunday the Dolphins play what is essentially their second consecutive playoff game when they travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. In reality, every game from here on out is a playoff game for the Dolphins. One slip up and their playoff chances take a serious hit.

So with that said, let's talk about three critical matchups for Sunday's game:

Mike Sims-Walker/Torry Holt vs Vontae Davis/Sean Smith
Every single week it seems like I start off this post by highlighting our two rookie corners. So why stop now?

Truth be told, this is a very interesting matchup. Why? Because this will be an excellent measuring stick to see how far Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have come. They've had to go up against some of the game's best receivers over the past two months (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, etc...). But this week they get to face an up-and-coming star, Mike Sims-Walker, and an aging but crafty veteran, Torry Holt - which should make for some interesting moments.

Last week we saw Vontae Davis really play well. Yes, he was burnt on that early first quarter bomb from Tom Brady to Moss. But he showed how resilient he is by bouncing back and really defending Moss well from that point on. Davis shadowed Randy wherever he lined up - a first for the young corner - and he held Moss to just one more reception - for only eight yards - the rest of the game. And who could forget his huge interception in the endzone?

Meanwhile, Smith didn't have such a great day himself. He let Sam Aiken out-jump or out-wrestle a ball away from him, resulting in an 81 yard touchdown for the young receiver. He let Aiken get about five yards in front of him late in the game as well but lucked out when Brady just overthrew the open receiver. And then on that final Patriot possession, Aiken again narrowly missed a big reception when he beat Smith and got two hands on the ball only to not bring in the tough catch.

With that said, though, I'm still not worried about Smith. I'm every bit as confident in him as I was before the draft when I highlighted him as the number one guy on my wishlist. And I expect a bounce back performance on Sunday out of Smith - who has tweeted how excited he is for this game on Sunday.

It'll be very interesting to see how the coaching staff decides to match up our young corners. Which one gets the 6'2 Sins-Walker, who is quietly having a big season? And which one gets the 6'0 Holt, who remains a factor even at the age of 33?

Jaguars offensive line vs Dolphins front seven
One of the things I've been most impressed with this season has been the play of Jacksonville's two rookie tackles. That's right - they start rookies at both left and right tackle. Not too often you see that.

But from the games I've watched - which, truth be told, is not too many - Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton have been playing some good football. And that is part of the reason why the Jaguars have the 7th ranked rushing offense in the NFL. Of course, the biggest reason for that is the explosive Maurice Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew is having an outstanding season in his first year as the full-time back in Jacksonville. He's fourth in the NFL in rushing yards, leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Not too shabby.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been struggling of late against the run. Earlier this season, the Dolphins were one of the best in stopping the run. But thanks to many factors - injuries included - the Dolphins have fallen to 14th in the league against the run. And in their past 5 games, the Dolphins have allowed 127 yards per game on the ground and are surrendering 4.9 yards per carry. Not good.

However, two rookie bookend tackles does mean that the Jaguars are prone to surrendering sacks. The Jags have allowed 34 sacks this season - the 5th highest total in the league. Of course, the Dolphins didn't exactly do a great job of getting to Tom Brady last week. But Cameron Wake did make a play with under a minute left to force that errant throw by Brady that landed in Channing Crowder's arms. But outside of that play, Brady was pretty well protected.

What I'm hoping here is for Paul Pasqualoni to dial up some blitz packages designed to confuse these rookie tackles, keeping David Garrard uncomfortable all game long.

Dolphins wide receivers vs Jaguars cornerbacks
Last week the Dolphins went into that game against the Patriots with every intention of letting Chad Henne air it out. Against the NFL's 13th ranked pass defense (statistically speaking), Miami's receivers did an excellent job of giving Henne places to go with the football.

On Sunday, the Dolphins will face the NFL's 23rd ranked pass defense - a unit allowing 242 yards per game through the air and letting opponents complete over 65% of their passes. They will still be without their top corner - Rashean Mathis - meaning Tyron Brackenridge will get the start again opposite of Derek Cox. Neither of those two corners are very good. Cox is allowing 64% of the passes thrown his way to be completed while Brackenridge allows over 15 yards per reception.

Let's see if this group of receivers can again come up big in a big game and put some points on the board in Jacksonville.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

15 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Keys to winning: Patriots @ Dolphins

MaPatsFan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:31:55 -0000

More photos » by Bill Feig - AP

Tony, when they line up Welker and Moss on the left side...

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Tony Sparano is no dummy. If he could call Sean Payton and ask him for the keys to victory against our Patriots, I'm sure he'd try (I have no idea if head coach etiquette would allow such a thing, though). Barring the phone call, it's all right there on film. Now, I have grown tired of the term "blueprint". It's been overused ever since we lost Super Bowl XLII against the Giants. Yes, they pressured the daylights out of Tom Brady, but one lucky catch from Tyree and BANG! There goes 19-0.

Anyway, teams would be stark, raving mad not to watch Sean Payton's dismantling of New England and glean whatever magic they could from it. The pressure schemes he was using on Tom Brady freed up his defensive backs to essentially blanket Tom Terrific's two favorite targets, Wes Welker and Randy Moss, and leave him with very few choices. Sam Aiken being one of those alternate choices, was overthrown at least twice by Mr. Bundchen. But I digress; this is more about Miami than it is about crying over spilled milk.

One of the keys to winning will be shoring up some gaping holes made painfully obvious this past Monday:

New England has zero pass rush. Maybe more accurate, a very spotty pass rush. Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess need to get off of their keisters and make Chad Henne's life miserable. Henne needs to be dodging a Flying Elvis or, at the very least, thinking one of those guys is right around the corner.
Fix the offensive line. They are banged up beyond belief and seem incapable of giving Tom Brady the kind of time he needs and he needs more time than most. Get Sebastian Vollmer back in there, if his "head injury" has been rectified that is.
Tom Brady likes his pocket and sits in it too long. If you look at the 2 most successful teams of this season, the Colts and the Saints, both of their quarterbacks have insanely fast releases. Drop back...BANG! The ball's out of their hands. Brady's targets should be running routes that allow for quick release.
Speaking of Brady's targets, Hoodie should assume Randy Moss and Wes Welker will forever be blanketed with DB's. That's why NE should always have more targets on the field. Send 3 to one side of the field and confuse the crap out of a defensive backfield. Remember that 75 yard bomb to Henderson? The Saints drew all of our defenders to one side and there was noone within 20 yards of Henderson. It doesn't have to be Moss.
Pound that rock. Laurence Maroney is playing like a man possessed, possessed to prove himself to his boss. Well, let him. By the way, where's Freddy? Get him back there.
Defensive backs are playing too dang soft. They need to pop receivers in the first 5 yards and make them think about stepping out. Own the field. Don't play like you're trying to prevent something from happening. MAKE something happen.

Ya think Tony was watching? I do.

Recap: The Big Easy...wasn't. Patriots fall to the Saints

MaPatsFan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 02:15:47 -0000

More photos » by Patrick Semansky - AP

21 days ago: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, left, hugs New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton after their NFL football game, Monday, Nov. 30, 2009, in New Orleans. The Saints defeated the Patriots 38-17 to remain undefeated at 11-0. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

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New Orleans Saints Head Coach Sean Payton has talked about the respect he has for Bill Belichick. In particular, he mentions the '06 Pro Bowl when the 2 had a chance to spend time "kicking it old skool" on a fishing trip:

"Anytime you get to spend a week and really just try to get someone else’s thoughts and opinions, someone who has been as successful as Bill has been…" Payton said. "For me, as a young coach after my first year, there might just be three or four different scheduling questions or things that you might want to get a better grasp on. He’s a guy that I have a ton of respect for and I really enjoyed the time we had a chance to spend just that week."

Seems like Bill may have giving up a little too much info to the up and coming coach.

Let me get this out of the way: the New Orleans Saints are, more than likely, the best all around team in the NFL right now. They are not great at any one thing. However, and even more damaging to opponents, they are very good at everything. As Belichick is fond of saying, "all three phases of the game". I have no doubt that barring an epic failure during the NFCCG, the Saints will destroy whoever the AFCCG winner is.

I've been thinking about our 2 toughest road games, the Colts and the Saints (both in domes, btw. Coincedence? Hmm...). We were dominating the Colts for 2 quarters (nothing happened in the third quarter) and simply couldn't do anything against an Indy team who got super hot in the fourth quarter. We nearly pulled that game out. Against the Saints, there was no nearly pulling out anything. They put the pedal to the floor and never let up. If not for the fact that it was against my team, it was some darn good football to watch.

I will not take away anything from the talent of that team, but there were some serious "Fails" on the Patriots that need to be talked about:

Offensive Line - Sean Payton decided to give us the run; he knew it wasn't that damaging so he figured let's hand them whatever meager ground game they can muster and watch out for the aerial assault. 3 and 4 man rushes were hammering away at the O line which meant Payton didn't have to put any safeties in the box. Keeping the DB's in the backfield helped to neutralize the passing attack.
Tom Brady - Brady is not back. His accuracy, to put it mildly, sucked. Overthrowing receivers and 2 critical picks are not championship caliber quarterbacking. Tom, I'm your biggest fan but when you're tanking, I gotta read you the riot act. He looked confused at times and out of rhythm with his 2 biggest targets, which leads me to the next topic...
Receivers - Not enough of them. The Saints effectively neutralized Wes Welker (6 for 32) and Randy Moss (3 for 67) while number 3 guy, Sam Aiken amassed the most with 7 for 90. There's not enough guys to make defenses nervous; neutralize the first 2 and it makes Brady jumpy. More weapons.
Defensive Backfield - Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees may claim that youth wasn't the problem, but could you picture Rodney Harrison falling for the pump fakes and misdirection looks Drew Brees threw at our current backfield? They got torched on a number of occasions because they fell for Brees' trickery. The second issue is not realizing something Sean Payton did: the officiating crew was "letting the teams play" and were allowing all kinds of crap on receivers. Consequently, New Orleans' DB's beat the daylights out of our receivers and got away with it. Why didn't we do that? Instead, we played them too soft with too much of a cushion.

Structurally, we have a few glaring issues to resolve:

The absolute gaffs on Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis really put us in a world of hurt. We didn't realize it at the time, but not having more targets for Brady has turned what could've been an F35 aerial assault into a strafing run by a glider. You can't expect Wes Welker and Randy Moss to do it all. Shut those 2 guys down and trouble is a brewin'.
I've been complaining about this since the draft: we DO NOT have an effective pass rush. OLB Adalius Thomas is not the guy. Derrick Burgess, crowned as the guy, is not the guy. Generating consistent pressure on a quarterback is a key element in a strong and effective defense. Pressure a quarterback, ANY quarterback, and they have less time to do what they need to do.

I overestimated the Patriots' ability to win a big road game against an opponent they knew little about and underestimated an undefeated opponent based on their statistics. Sean Payton has said he modeled his team after the championship Patriots teams. Maybe we could learn a thing or 2 by peeking into the history books.

Quick Recap: Saints defeat Patriots, 38-17

MaPatsFan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 04:34:26 -0000

More photos » by Patrick Semansky - AP

What a surprise. A Patriots DB getting torched by a Saints receiver.

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I was confident, confident Tom Brady and the boys had what it would take to match up against the hot and undefeated New Orleans Saints. I was confident that we had what it would take to shutdown Drew Brees and his receivers. I was confident Bill Belichick knew more about the Saints than I did. Apparently, not that much more. Sean Payton and Drew Brees absolutely trashed this Patriots Defense.

More after the jump.

In one of the toughest games of the season, our New England Patriots made every mistake they could possibly make. Interceptions, O-line fails, lineup confusion, you name it. But the biggest mistakes of all were from our young secondary. Brees is very good at redirecting inexperienced players to a different part of the field and then gunning it to someone else, someone who beat coverage. This young secondary fell for all of Brees's tricks hook, line, and sinker.

On the Patriots, we seem to have 1 or 2 deadly targets: Randy Moss, sometimes Benjamin Watson, and sometimes Sam Aiken. Not the Saints. Brees was able to spread the ball to no fewer than 5 guys for touchdowns. That's silly. There was simply no coverage on the Saints receivers. Our young backfield simply got torched by a quality team. And there was almost no pressure on Brees, one of the fastest QB's in the backfield with a super quick release. No pressure + inexperienced backfield = embarrassing loss.

I now know how our '07 rivals felt.

The Big Easy...won't be. Patriots prepare for the Saints

MaPatsFan — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:51:25 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

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If you look at the nfl.com stats by team, the Saints make their mark in only 2 categories: 1st in Total Offense and 5th in Rushing Offense. That's not burning up the field. A closer look also reveals they give up a lot of yardage and points on defense. So, how is it that they win games if their defense is giving up so much? The answer is offense. Drew Brees and his collection of weapons score a lot of points, to the tune of a league #1 36.9 on average.

So how can the Patriots be successful in New Orleans?

This is a huge game for both teams. To be somewhat egotistical, it's most likely the toughest game on the Saints' schedule. It's certainly the toughest of their remaining 6 matchups. A victory against NE would potentially legitimize the Saints as a "for real" team. From a New England perspective, our Patriots have struggled on the road against quality teams. We're 1-3 on the road with our only W at Wembley (you're not counting Tampa Bay as a quality team, are you?). A statement game for both teams.

As mentioned above, the Saints are not burning up the field in any one area except total offense. However, I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that they remind me of Patriots teams from the "Golden Years", the Super Bowl winning seasons. What the Saints DO have is solid team play across the board; just as there's only 1 or 2 areas where they statistically excel, conversely there's few areas where they're lacking. They seem to cover all of the bases...all of the time. So, what are the keys to coming out ahead of this franchise?

Drew Brees - This answer always pains me because it's so formulaic, but it's very true: take away Drew Brees. Remember how successful our defense was at Indy in the first half? That was from consistent pressure on Peyton Manning. the same is true of just about every quarterback as well; consistently put someone in his backfield, and Brees will have less time to weigh his options.
Saints' Backfield - Bush is having an incredible season. Like his team, he is not burning up the charts in any one area, but he's a constant threat. Much like our Kevin Faulk, Bush can hurt you in so many different ways - his yardage rushing is almost identical to his passing yardage. He's listed as questionable in the injury report, by I doubt that has any credence. However, Bush is not the only weapon in the backfield. Much like the Patriots, there's no clear star but there's dangerous ones.
Passing Attack - Our New England Patriots are 6th against the pass for average yards. That's not bad considering the defensive backfield of 2008 was a joke, in my opinion. Taking away Brees' targets is paramount to winning this game. However, he has so many. Marques Colston at 6-4 225 lbs is a serious threat to defensive backs; not only does he have the height, but he has the strength and poundage to win against CB's and safeties. Then there's TE Jeremy Shockey. Jettisoned by the Giants, he's found a home in New Orleans and appears to be thriving.
RedZone Defense - New Orleans is 5th in the league at 65.3%. Unfortunately, New England is 28th in RedZone defense. We let our opponents score 65% of the time inside the 20. Ugghh...
Score more points - As basic as that sounds, it's a classic Belichick answer to how a team wins a game. New Orleans is a high scoring team and to combat that, New England has to keep pace. That means throwing the ball A LOT. NO will be smart enough to take away Randy Moss. Sure, Wes Welker is super dangerous at moving the chains, but a guy like Moss puts points on the board. With Moss most likely covered, who do we go to? As I'm fond of saying, Benjamin Watson, Julian Edelman, and Sam Aiken. Let's not forget screens to our running backs; Sammy Morris (if he plays) can be successful as an option and Kevin Faulk is the master of this backfield at that particular scenario.

What are you keys to winning? Is it any one of three phases? Play well on all phases? Any player in particular that has to step up or an NO guy we need to neutralize?

Game Preview: Jets @ Patriots

MaPatsFan — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:21:50 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

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Division game, folks. As much as we're hurting from the Colts loss, it's time to move on. It is, afterall, a week after. As Belichick would say, "Time to focus on the Jets." And he's right. 3-6 means Bo Diddley. Any given Sunday and all that. Never take any opponent for granted. Historically, we're 49-50-1 against the Jets. However, our fanbase has cause to be confident. Since Kraft purchased the team, we're 20-12 against the Jets; since the 2003 season, the Patriots are 20-1 after a regular season loss; Bill Belichick is 14-8 against the Jets; and since 2001, our New England Patriots dominate the division with a 41-12 record.

As we discussed in Focusing on Jersey: Patriots take on Jets this Sunday, there's a lot of history between these 2 teams and it's not just on the field. Coaching contracts, the fact that it's New York...you name it. We love to get up for these games. But, the most important reason to get up for these games AND to win them is this: it's a divisional game.

Winning your division is the surest way to make the playoffs. Tying the division bites, plain and simple. Do you remember the nail biting we did last season? Yeah, you're left at the mercy of the tie-breaking procedures. And wildcard berths are raft with "Gee, I hope so-and-so wins this Sunday" as well. No, we need to soundly thrash everyone in the AFC East because our nemesis, the Miami Dolphins, are right behind us.

The Jets seemed to have quite the swagger at the beginning of the season. Rex Ryan was talking about not kissing Belichick's rings and how his defense was going to own the division. Nine games later, NY is 3-6, NE is 6-3, and Ryan is crying at team meetings. Hey, I'm not going to pick on the guy for getting emotional with his team; I only point this out to document the contrast in attitude over half a season. Hence why Belichick usually keeps an even keel when he's at the top or the bottom (which doesn't happen too much).

New York faced a VERY different New England in our Week 2 9-16 loss. Tom Brady had significant rust on him and Joey Galloway couldn't hang on to the football for what seemed like 2 certain touchdowns. Remember those? One in the numbers at the front of the end zone and one in the back where he forgot where his feet were. Bleh. At any rate, New England has gotten very good at protecting Tom Brady. LT Sebastian Vollmer has done very well handling the pass rush, but he's also had some creative help in doing so. We'd all like to think rookie "Sea Bass" soundly handled one of the best pass rushers in the league, but that's not the case. Don't feel bad. I think it's a good thing. It means that as a team, we're doing a good job of handling pass pressure from the defense. Remember, blitzing and pass pressure are the hallmarks of a Rex Ryan defense. As Belichick is so good at doing, take away what a team is good at and make them play YOUR game.

The Jets are facing some serious trouble with 2 high profile guys placed on injured reserve: DT Kris Jenkins and RB/JR Leon Washington. The absence of these 2 is like losing Vince Wilfork and possible Laurence Maroney for the season. Not good. Jenkins, like Wilfork, swallows up offensive linemen and is a big reason why the Jets defense is rated 3rd in the league. Interestingly enough, their offense is first in rushing.

I think Belichick and company may do something similar to what was done against Indy. That is, creative pass protection to allow Brady some time. With Julian Edelman AND Sam Aiken questionable, it's anyone's guess who will be the third wideout, but I'd guess Edelman; afterall, he toughed it out for the Colts game. It's also been good to see Randy Moss improving at some crossing patterns instead of simply sprinting vertical; it adds another weapon in the Patriots' arsenal. Why leave all the fun to Wes Welker?

With the Jets' Kris Jenkins out, it may be easier for us to generate and sustain a decent rushing attack - key to a balanced offensive plan. Combine that with Brady's improvements during the season and I think we'll see a VERY different football game today than we saw in Week 2.

New England Patriots moves and rumors

MaPatsFan — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:47:33 -0000

As the trade deadline approaches this coming Tuesday, October 20th, there have been plenty of rumors surrounding the disposition of players. The most interesting has been Adalius Thomas. Thomas was, apparently, a "healthy sit" for the Titans matchup. That was a bit of a surprise for me as I didn't think he was, in any way, having trouble. Yeah, nothing stellar, but I wouldn't have thought he was on the bubble. Apparently, I was wrong. Michael Vega of the Globe asked Belichick about Thomas' status:

"I don’t know. It was one game. We’ll evaluate this combing week against Tampa like we always do. This week is different than last week. I think he’s a good football player. He’s versatile. He’s made some big plays for us. We have a lot of confidence in him. If that wasn’t the case, he wouldn’t be here."

With the Bengals defensive end Antwan Odom and the Seahawks linebacker Lofa Tatupu both being lost for the season Sunday, there would appear to be a need among those teams for a veteran linebacker.

And, yet another rumor, DE/OLB Tully Banta-Cain has been released:

A day after the Patriots created a widespread case of head scratching by deactivating linebacker Adalius Thomas, the Pats have sent fingers back to scalps throughout the football-watching world by cutting linebacker Tully Banta-Cain.

Now, this is Mike Florio from profootballtalk.com, so read into that what you want. I'm honestly not sure what to say about this other than spread some wild rumor myself. By dumping Banta-Cain and possibly Thomas, we're eliminating two edge guys, rushers if you will. Are we simply happy with Derrick Burgess? Or, could we be making a play for Julius Peppers?

Last but not least, Joey Galloway has been a healthy scratch from the roster for 3 games. Has Julian Edelman and Sam Aiken taken the spot as legitimate third looks for Tom Brady? Are we happy with Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker, happy enough to thin down the WR roster by one?

As I wrote above, tomorrow is the trade deadline. It could be an interesting day.