SB Nation - Chris Kelsay

Bills 16, Chiefs 10: Week 14 Film Session

Brian Galliford — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:44:53 -0000

The Buffalo Bills improved to 2-2 under interim head coach Perry Fewell and 5-8 on the season in defeating the Kansas City Chiefs, 16-10, in Week 14. The win featured the Bills' best rushing effort of the season (200 yards on the ground) and another four turnovers forced by the defense, all on interceptions.

As usual, we've got some quick thoughts and observations after reviewing the film from the win.

Aaron Maybin needs more playing time. Unfortunately, he's not going to get it. The Chiefs officially ran 69 offensive plays on the day, but Maybin was only lined up defensively on 12 of those plays.

There were two issues to getting Maybin onto the field more in this particular game. First and foremost, the Chiefs put a wrinkle into their offensive game plan in which they went no-huddle on nearly every third down opportunity they had. That decision likely took 3-6 snaps away from Maybin. The second issue appears to be that Fewell isn't comfortable allowing Maybin to do anything other than play right end, where Aaron Schobel takes the lion's share of reps.

People are still up in arms about Maybin's lack of production this season, but they should be more worried about the fact that the coaches aren't comfortable enough with him to give him reps at left end. (In fairness, Ryan Denney isn't seeing a lot of reps these days, either, as both Schobel and Chris Kelsay are having very solid seasons.) My opinion on Maybin hasn't changed - it's still way too early to write him off. His potential remains elite, and nothing he's done (or hasn't done) this season leads me to believe he won't reach said potential. But I'd feel more comfortable in that proclamation if Maybin got more snaps the rest of the way.

Paul Posluszny needs to move outside. He also needs to come off the field on obvious passing downs. Clearly, that's not going to happen on the season - Poz is the only NFL-caliber linebacker on the roster, after all - but it's something to bear in mind going forward. Posluszny is another defender who takes either way too much abuse or way too much praise, which is indicative of what he ideally brings to a football team - he's not an every-down defender or the cornerstone player for a defense, but he's not exactly a guy you just kick to the curb, either, because he can play.

I'm going to get a bit more into this once the season has closed and things (i.e. the coaching search and front office re-organization) have settled, but I firmly believe that the Bills are one major piece away from fielding a pretty excellent defense. That piece is a middle linebacker. No offense to Posluszny, who I think definitely has and deserves a place on this team, but he doesn't possess the block-shedding ability to be elite at his current position. Moving Posluszny outside, getting a healthy Kawika Mitchell back and inserting a talented middle linebacker that can shed blocks would do wonders for this defense. (Yes, I'm aware that a little depth at all positions wouldn't hurt, either. I said "major" piece.)

Expect more big runs allowed. That's not exactly rocket science, I realize, but there's actually a good reason that the Bills will likely give up more big runs this season beyond the "they stink at stopping the run" obviousness. Fewell spent a lot of time plunging 7 or 8 guys into the line of scrimmage at the snap in an effort to shut down underrated Chiefs back Jamaal Charles. On 19 of Charles' carries, that method worked, and Charles gained only 67 yards (3.5 yards per carry) on those runs. That's not exactly superb run defense, but it's better than awful.

But on just one play, Fewell got caught in a blitz, and Charles took the run 76 yards to the house. Donte Whitner had Charles dead to rights in the secondary, but Charles caught him flat-footed - and when Jamaal Charles catches you flat-footed, you're flat-out screwed. Charles ran by Whitner as if the Chiefs had installed a No. 20 statue in the middle of their Arrowhead Stadium field. Those big runs will continue to be a problem because the Bills, for obvious reasons, will need to keep plunging guys into the line to try to contain the run as best as possible.

Pound the rock. We talked about this at length yesterday, but I just thought I'd put in this friendly reminder.

Fitzpatrick's pocket poise is deteriorating. It's not difficult to fathom why, but obviously, that's bad news. Fitzpatrick became the starting quarterback full-time when Fewell was promoted to his current role, and the Harvard product got the nod because of his superior pocket presence and field vision when compared to backup quarterback Trent Edwards.

For a time - and by "for a time," I mean back-to-back performances against Jacksonville and Miami in which Fitzpatrick threw for 543 yards and put the ball in the end zone, via arm or legs, three times - Fitzpatrick played well. But in consecutive weeks, Fitzpatrick has looked much more wary in the pocket, and has not done as stellar a job at buying time and finding receivers as he did in previous weeks. (To his credit, he did exhibit excellent patience and pocket awareness on his first-quarter touchdown strike to Terrell Owens.)

Buffalo actually has a chance to pick up another win or two before the season ends. It won't happen unless Fitzpatrick plays with the swagger he exhibited in the win over Miami, and only that will give the coaching staff the confidence to re-open the playbook a little bit.

On Nic Harris. Many have asked me via e-mail about rookie linebacker Nic Harris, who made the start at strong-side linebacker in place of veteran Chris Draft. My answer: Harris looks like a fringe NFL player. He's instinctive, active and can run, but he's only physically able to play linebacker in this specific system, and he doesn't have the athletic prowess to play safety in any defensive scheme. I thought he was OK against the Chiefs, but that's not exactly difficult to do. Don't marry yourself to the idea of this guy turning into much more than a Keith Ellison-type reserve, particularly since a regime change might mean a scheme change, which would dramatically decrease Harris' chances of making the team next season.

Web Rumblings: Buffalo Bills Links, 12/15

MattRichWarren — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:47:31 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

8 days ago: Buffalo Bills defensive back Jairus Byrd (31) breaks up a pass intended for Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Lance Long in the the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Long was call for pass interference on the play. The Bills 16-10. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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Buffalo Bills’ All-Decay Team : Buffalo Sports Daily
"Every franchise has its busts, but few can put together a complete lineup of failures who came with so much promise. These aren’t just any scrubs; they’re guys who, based on what was invested in them, were counted on to make the team respectable at least. " Can't say I agree with Willis McGahee on here.

S Byrd leads NFL and interception-happy Bills - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
John Wawrow of the AP analyzes the Bills' interception totals from the year. [Ed. Note: Check out the caption on the photo above and catch the mistake.]

Evans again forgotten on Bills' offense : Jerry Sullivan : The Buffalo News
"You have to feel a twinge of sympathy for poor Lee Evans. Good guy. Good teammate. Good in the community. Good hands. Great speed. But in his sixth NFL season, the Bills' wide receiver is struggling through the most discouraging season of his career."

Bills replay: Running backs finally run wild : Buffalo Bills : The Buffalo News
In his game tape review, Allen Wilson focuses in on the Bills run blocking and running backs.

Buffalo Bills Replay | democratandchronicle.com | Democrat and Chronicle
"We're trying to say some nice things about the Bills because this might be our last chance. This is probably the last game they're going to win this season." Thanks Sal!

Perfect ending for Colts, Saints would be Super Bowl | Democrat and Chronicle
Buffalo was holding opponents to a 62.5 passer rating before Kansas City's Matt Cassel registered a 35.4 rating in a 16-10 home loss to the Bills. The Bills entered Sunday with a 25th-ranked 70.0 passer rating themselves, and Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 65.8 rating in victory Sunday.

Buffalo Bills NFL News Updates - CBSSports.com Rapid Reports
The Bills are currently leading the league in INTs with 25. The last time Buffalo had that many takeaways through the air was in 1975.

Moorman has shot at elusive number – Inside The Bills
"After Sunday’s masterful performance in which he finished with a net average of 53, Moorman’s net average for the season is now 41.4, good for third in the league."

Monday Morning Quarterback - Peter King - SI.com
King named Brian Moorman his special teams player of the week for punting four times for a 53-yard average and not surrendering a return yard. He forgot to mention the other stuff like getting a bad snap up for Rian Lindell and calling a timeout instead of taking a delay of game penalty.

Run game revs up - BuffaloBills.com
"My hat goes off to Jonathan Stupar because he played every play on offense," said Fred Jackson. "He was on the field (throwing up) at one point. He was a guy that wanted to perform for us and help us get a victory. Jamon coming in as another tight end to help us [when Shawn Nelson went down]. It was about guys just wanting to get a victory."

Scott growing into role at linebacker : The Buffalo News
"He's a big safety and a small linebacker," Fewell said. "Bryan is really stepping up to the plate for us because we need guys to step up to the plate. It's not the role that he envisioned himself to be in at the beginning of the season but it shows how unselfish he is and how unselfish this team is."

What Else Can We Expect? | Democrat and Chronicle | Three-Point Stance
Sal Maiorana lauds defensive ends Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay for playing well and explains why he dislikes Aaron Maybin so much. He also calls for Brian Brohm because Ryan Fitzpatrick "couldn’t start for about 20 Division I college teams."

No passing mark yet for Fitzpatrick | Olean Times Herald
"One question was emphatically answered on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium: neither Trent Edwards nor Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the Bills’ quarterback come training camp next July."

Taking out the Trash: Bill of goods - George Winkler - Fantasy Source Blitz - Sporting News
"Perry Fewell says he's sticking with Fitzpatrick, but it doesn't take an Ivy League education for fantasy owners to know the Harvard grad should be punted."

Bills Announce Tickets Available For Last Two Games | WKBW News
The Bills have announced that approximately 2,000 tickets are available for Sunday’s game vs. the New England Patriots and over 5,000 tickets remain for the January 3rd game vs. the Indianapolis Colts.

Countdown Daily Insight Center: NE-BUF - ESPN Video - ESPN
Football Scientist KC Joyner takes you into the IBM Insight Center to tell you the keys to victory.

WGR 550 SportsRadio - Jake Locker Could Have Been #1
"Sam Bradford is a mid-first round talent. I project Colt McCoy as a late first to early second round pick, with the likes of Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike and Sean Canfield in a glut just beyond him. Watch out for Arkansas's Ryan Mallet, however. He's a very raw talent and underclassmen, but has the skills to sneak in to the first round if he elects to leave early."

It's my mom's birthday today so happy birthday mom!

Bills hang on, pick up 16-10 win over Chiefs

Brian Galliford — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:21:50 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

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The Buffalo Bills went into Arrowhead Stadium and picked up what can be loosely defined as a victory, outscoring the Kansas City Chiefs 16-10. Terrell Owens scored his fifth touchdown as a Bill, Rian Lindell kicked three field goals, and Bills defenders intercepted four Matt Cassel passes in the win.

At times, the Bills were borderline dominant. Buffalo ran the ball better than they have all season, with Fred Jackson (99 yards) and Marshawn Lynch (84) keying a 200-yard ground effort. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't make Buffalo's offense two-dimensional, however; in easily their most conservative game plan of the season, Fitzpatrick made many poor decisions in completing 12 of 20 passes for a hugely pedestrian 86 yards. His 9-yard strike to Owens put the Bills up 7-0 in the first quarter, but he lost a fumble and threw an ugly interception into triple coverage. Not his best effort, and it really hampered the Bills' ability to put the game away much sooner than they did.

Three offensive turnovers kept the Chiefs in it, and after the Bills opened up a 13-3 lead, Jamaal Charles raced for 76 yards and a score to cut the Buffalo lead to 13-10. Charles finished with 181 yards on 27 touches, with 143 of those coming on the ground. Just another running back shredding the Bills. Hope you started Charles in your fantasy leagues, Charles owners.

Buffalo's defense shut the door late in the fourth quarter, however. Jairus Byrd recorded his league-leading ninth interception of the season with roughly two minutes remaining, and after the Bills failed to pick up a first down and punted the ball back to Kansas City with a minute remaining, George Wilson intercepted a desperation heave from Cassel on the last play of the game to preserve the win. Wilson now has four interceptions on the season.

Paul Posluszny and Terrence McGee each recorded interceptions as well. Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay, Spencer Johnson and Bryan Scott recorded one sack apiece; without those big plays defensively, the Chiefs - who missed plenty of opportunities to take leads on this day - likely take the win.

The Bills improve to 5-8 on the season - they are now 2-2 under interim head coach Perry Fewell - while the Chiefs drop to 3-10. Buffalo hosts the 8-5 New England Patriots next Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Web Rumblings: Buffalo Bills Links, 12/9

MattRichWarren — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:27:05 -0000

Simmons still playing catch-up with Bills : Buffalo Bills : The Buffalo News
Rodney McKissic profiles the season of guard Kendall Simmons, the newest member of Buffalo's injury-depleted offensive line.

Bills still want to finish strong - BuffaloBills.com
"Coming off the field after practice early this week, the players made it clear that finishing strong is top priority with four games to play."

2010 Pro Football Hall of Fame Ballot | Pro-Football-Reference.com
PFR has put together a 2010 Hall of Fame Ballot with stats. Go check out and compare.

Chiefs enter the blackout derby | ProFootballTalk.com
"The Chiefs have announced that 3,500 tickets need to be sold before Thursday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Chiefs have not suffered a local blackout since December 16, 1990, giving the franchise a 155-game streak of sellouts."

Chiefs Blackout Alert: 3,500 Tickets Remaining for Bills - Arrowhead Pride
Arrowhead Pride is doing their best to get the game sold out.

Terrell Owens wants to play 2-3 more years | ProFootballTalk.com
Terrell Owens told Jay Glazer he wants to play for two or three more years.

Buffalo Bills' problem is "our own stupidity" | ProFootballTalk.com
"Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams says he and his teammates are good enough that they could be right in the thick of the AFC East race. Williams says he's figured out what the problem is: He and his teammates are stoopid."

Bills players support KED | BuffaloBills.com
Buffalo Bills players Aaron Maybin, Fred Jackson, Chris Kelsay, and Bryan Scott sent a strong anti-drug message to kids in their support of the Kids Escaping Drugs (KED) Campaign Monday night at an autograph session at McKinley Mall.

Spielman enters Hall weeks after wife's death : Buffalo Bills : The Buffalo News
Former Buffalo Bills Chris Spielman was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame a few weeks after his wife, Chris, Succumbed to a long battle with cancer.

Buffalo Bills the Early Favorites Over the Kansas City Chiefs - Arrowhead Pride
The Bills are favored by a mere point in Arrowhead.

AFC East Roundup - The Sports Network
"The Bills won a wild 54-31 win affair at Kansas City last Nov. 23rd. The team has averaged 15.4 points in their 17 subsequent contests."

How I See It: AFC East Stock Watch - AFC East Blog - ESPN
Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's stock is falling in Tim Graham's (and everyone else's) eyes after his 34.3 passer rating Thursday night.

Week 14 power rankings: AFC East - AFC East Blog - ESPN
The Bills fall to 26 and as a result, the Raiders moved past Buffalo. Goes to show you how much a QB means.

Video: Bills hung 54 on Chiefs last year - AFC East Blog - ESPN
"ESPN's KC Joyner previews Sunday's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. Joyner believes the key for Kansas City will be forgetting last year's 54-31 loss."

Patriots scored in decade with trades for Randy Moss, Wes Welker - 2000s: The Decade in Sports - SI.com
Nate Clements signing with the San Francisco 49ers is the second-worst free agent signing of the decade mainly because of the contract. Mike Williams is the third-biggest draft bust.

Tom Brady, Patriots are tops in NFL decade; Lions at bottom - 2000s: The Decade in Sports - SI.com
Terrell Owens was named the Villain of the Decade.

Titans 22, Bills 16 - AFC wild card; Jan. 8, 2000 - 2000s: Top 10 NFL Games - Photos - SI.com
Music City Mirage is number 7 on the list of top ten games of the decade.

2010 NFL Draft
Evaluating Notre Dame’s early entries | National Football Post
NFP looks at Jimmy Clausen.

Jake Locker seeking NFL info; Ryan Mallett dodges draft question - Mocking The Draft
Top quarterbacks have yet to make a decision on their NFL futures.

Opponent History: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

sireric — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:00:23 -0000

Buffalo Bills (4-7) vs New York Jets (5-6)
Thursday, December 3, 2009 at 8:20 PM EST
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Woot! A Thursday night game! As this is a Thursday night game this week, I probably should have had this up sooner, but I didn't even think of that until just now, so that is why this gets posted now.

These two teams have a long history against each other, dating all the way back to 1960 when they first met. Fast forward 50 years, and this will be meeting No. 99 between these two franchises. The Bills hold the edge 54-44 all time, including a stretch from 1987 to 1992 where the Bills won ten straight games. The last five meetings between these two teams in Buffalo are after the jump.

Sunday, November 7, 2004: Bills 22, Jets 17
In what seems to be a common theme in Bills/Jets games, the Bills ground out 157 yards on the ground, spearheaded by Willis McGahee's 132 yards on 37 attempts - one for a touchdown. When the Bills have big days running the football against the Jets, they normally win. Lee Evans added a touchdown catch and Rian Lindell kicked two field goals; Big Pat Williams even tackled Curtis Martin in the end-zone for a safety. For the Jets, Chad Pennington got knocked out of the game, and former Cowboy Quincy Carter had to finish up. Carter hit Santana Moss for a 51-yard touchdown to make it close late, but the Bills held on for the win.

Sunday, October 16, 2005: Bills 27, Jets 17
Another Bills win over the Jets, another 177 rushing yards from Buffalo. McGahee was once again the workhorse with 143 yards on 29 attempts and a touchdown. Kelly Holcomb added two touchdown passes, one each to Jonathan Smith and Eric Moulds to help pace the Bills' scoring. This time, the Bills had Vinny Testaverde to go against, and the speed rushers of the Bills took advantage. (Please note use of sarcasm.) Ryan Denney (2.0), Tim Anderson (1.0), Sam Adams (1.0), and Angelo Crowell (1.0) all recorded sacks for the Bills.

Sunday, September 24, 2006: Jets 28, Bills 20
The Bills controlled time of possession and moved up and down the field with ease, but turnovers and costly penalties killed them. The Bills ran for 169 yards, once again led by Willis McGahee (who finished with 150 yards), and J.P. Losman even passed for 328 yards. A Victor Hobson fumble return for a touchdown and a key Losman interception gave the Jets the win. Chris Kelsay picked up the lone Bills sack.

Sunday, September 30, 2007: Bills 17, Jets 14
This was the starting debut of Trent Edwards. With the Bills holding a slim 10-7 lead halfway through the fourth quarter, Dick Jauron shows lots of faith in his young QB by going for it on a fourth and one. Jauron's faith was rewarded when Edwards hit Michael Gaines in the end zone for some much-needed insurance points. Less then four minutes later, Leon Washington crossed the goal line for the Jets to pull the Jets to within three points, but the Bills' defense would hold on for the win.

Sunday, November 2, 2008: Jets 26, Bills 17
After Jay Feely hit a field goal for the Jets, the Bills came back with a Derek Fine touchdown pass from Edwards to make it 7-3. It was all downhill from there. Feely hit two more field goals and Abram Elam's 92-yard pick six put the game away for the Jets. The Bills rushed for only 30 yards, and Kris Jenkins singlehandedly shut down the Bills' running game. Jabari Greer added a 42-yard pick six to make it look a little more respectable.

New York Jets Run Offense vs. Buffalo Bills Run Defense

John B — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:39:57 -0000

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

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The Jets went off for 318 rushing yards on the Bills in the first meeting. They are giving up 165.1 yards on the ground, which is the most in the league. They give up 4.8 per rush. That's Adrian Peterson's average over the past two seasons. That means every back they face turns into the 2008-2009 version of Adrian Peterson. Ok, that might be hyperbole, but the Bills are really bad at stopping the run. That's bad for them, considering the Jets are the number two rushing offense per game in football.

Surprisingly for a run defense so lousy, the Bills actually do not have a disaster tackle situation. Marcus Stroud and Kyle Williams are a good pair. Stroud's not having a great year, but he's still a guy who commands a lot of attention. Williams always seems to hold his own in the middle of the line. Aaron Schobel has also been decent.

Let's get into where the Bills will have problems. It's on the right side, which is New York's strength. End Chris Kelsay does a poor job holding the point of attack and containing. The Bills have also had a nightmarish year in terms of linebacker injuries. Chris Draft wasn't playing anywhere at the start of this season. He's now starting outside for Buffalo and seeing a ton of time. The other outside linebacker, Bryan Scott, is a safety by trade and very undersized for the position at 219 pounds. Paul Posluszny in the middle is an emerging quality young player, but there is very little depth for the Bills.

The problem for the Bills in the first game was even their good players against the run got beaten. Nick Mangold and Brandon Moore had their best games of the year against Stroud and company on the line. If the Bills have any hope of slowing down the ground game, this will have to improve. The way this offensive line is playing, that's a tall order. Even if the Bills play this to a draw, they are weak in the back of the front seven. We'll see a lot of eight man fronts out of necessity. I don't think the Jets go for over 300 yards again, but I do think they should have another good performance on the ground.

New York Jets Pass Offense vs. Buffalo Bills Pass Defense

John B — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:09:55 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

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You may remember the first meeting between the Jets and Bills as one of the most disastrous showings in the history of quarterbacking by Mark Sanchez. A week after holding Derek Anderson to a 2 for 17 game, Buffalo intercepted Sanchez 5 times in an overtime victory. More than any other factor, their pass defense won the Bills that game. Through one week of Rex Ryan's codes to Sanchez, things have worked out. Sanchez made good decisions against the Panthers, and the Jets won the game. Mark didn't try to do too much. If the Jets want to leave ~~Orchard Park~~ Toronto with a win, they could sure use an efficient game from the rookie quarterback.

The Bills will look to use the same formula everybody use against the rookie quarterback, attempt to generate pressure. Aaron Schobel leads their club with 6 sacks. He's probably the best pass rusher they have, although slowing him down will be an easier task for D'Brickashaw Ferguson than handling Julius Peppers. Schobel hasn't been a model of consistency this year, though. Chris Kelsay, who is battling a shoulder injury, is the other end. He has 3 sacks. You'd have to think Damien Woody has a favorable matchup.

In the middle, Marcus Stroud returned from a knee injury for the Miami game. He is a guy who always occupies attention. Neither he nor Kyle Williams register many sacks, but their job will be to get a push up the middle and flush Mark Sanchez from the pocket. We may find out a lot about the status of his knee and that brace.

Buffalo blitzed sparingly under Dick Jauron. Since Jauron's dismissal, the numbers appear to have increased a bit. Paul Posluzny is the most likely guy to come from the middle. It could present a test for the middle of the line dealing with the tackles.

Cornerback Terrence McGee has been limited by a knee injury for the Bills. Drayton Florence will start next to him. Florence is having a nice year, but he and a gimpy McGee are a good matchup for Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery. They do have a pair of good cover safeties in Donte Whitner and George Wilson.The problem could be the run defense for the Bills, though. The Jets ran all over them in the first meeting. You have to think the biggest adjustment they will make will be to stop the run. That probably means they'll want their safeties up and won't dedicate them as much to the passing game.

Buffalo has been decimated at the linebacker position by injury. In one regard, that might help them in this matchup. Bryan Scott is starting at outside linebacker. He was converted from the safety position and is a good pass defender, which leaves the Bills in good shape covering Dustin Keller. Posluszny is also a good pass defender. The other starting linebacker, Chris Draft, was limited in practice with a neck injury and is probably the weakest cover linebacker the Bills have but is still solid. It will have to be a day for the receivers. Sanchez should have time to find them. Again, after the rushing numbers the Jets posted in their first meeting, the Bills won't be overly aggressive for fear of being caught up field.

Identifying the "crux players" on Buffalo's roster

Brian Galliford — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

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Two weeks ago - a day before the Buffalo Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron, in fact - we here at Buffalo Rumblings took a look at the core players of Buffalo's roster. The idea behind the post was to identify players that, based on their contract status with the franchise, are very likely to survive a regime change at One Bills Drive.

We'll recap the fruits of that labor quickly after the jump, but the purpose of this post is to take that exercise a step further. With the core players out of the way, it's time to look at the players that I'll term "crux players" - guys with flexible contract situations that will define a new regime's focus on re-building the Bills.

Core player recap
We named 17 current Bills as "core players," splitting the group up into vested veterans, young players with promise and role-playing veterans awaiting new roles once the regime change is complete. Of those 17 players, we defined a solid 9 as starting-caliber, a further six as fringe starters, and two as reserves. Here's that breakdown:

Starters: RB Fred Jackson, WR Lee Evans, G/C Eric Wood, DE Aaron Schobel, DT Marcus Stroud, LB Kawika Mitchell, CB Terrence McGee, FS Jairus Byrd, P Brian Moorman

Fringe starters: TE Shawn Nelson, OT Brad Butler, OG Andy Levitre, DE Aaron Maybin, DT Kyle Williams, CB Leodis McKelvin

Reserves: C/G Geoff Hangartner, DT Spencer Johnson

Keep in mind that all of these players are currently under contract through the end of the 2012 season. That means that, if each plays to the end of their contract, they'll be in Buffalo for another three years. The fact that each player has at least three years left on his deal at least ensures that they'll be part of the roster in Year 1 of a new regime, and many of them will be playing considerably large roles.

For this exercise, the criteria changes a bit. "Crux players," as far as we're concerned for now, are players that, once the 2009 season ends, will have either one or two years left on their current deal. Each is under contract for the 2010 season, but each also has a deal that makes it possible for a new regime to play football in 2010 without these players under contract. They are truly "crux" players in that a new regime will be making its most important decisions amongst this group. The entire new direction of the franchise from a personnel standpoint will be based largely on evaluations of these 19 players.

Keep in mind, also, that this list changes if 2010 is an uncapped year. Ask MattRichWarren about it.

Buffalo's 19 "crux players"
You'll have a task at the end of this exercise, but for now, here's a quick summary of the 19 crux players on Buffalo's roster:

Trent Edwards, QB - Signed through 2011. He's been benched and needs a new environment, but some talent remains.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB - Signed through 2012. Has proven to be reliable as a backup, but is not considered a franchise signal-caller.
Brian Brohm, QB - Signed through 2012. A project player with some solid tools, there's a chance he never sees the field for Buffalo.
Marshawn Lynch, RB - Signed through 2013, with an opt-out clause in the final year. No longer the starting running back, Lynch might be the subject of trade talks this off-season.
Corey McIntyre, FB - Signed through 2011. Run-of-the-mill player.
James Hardy, WR - Signed through 2012. Buffalo invested a second-round pick in him, and the talent is there, but Hardy has had injury issues and hasn't seen the field much.
Roscoe Parrish, WR - Signed through 2012. Has clamored for a trade, but a new regime might be inclined to keep him as a punt returner. Unlikely to get PT as a WR anywhere.
Steve Johnson, WR - Signed through 2012. Held in high regard by current regime, but that could change quickly, and doesn't carry the same investment as Hardy.
Derek Fine, TE - Signed through 2012. Probably survives a regime change because he's a role player with special teams ability.
Demetrius Bell, OT - Signed through 2012. Has struggled with injuries and on the playing field, but again, there is raw ability to work with.
Chris Kelsay, DE - Signed through 2011. A heady veteran who has improved under position coach Bob Sanders, but has a large salary that might seal his fate.
Chris Ellis, DE - Signed through 2012. Does not play a significant role now and that's not likely to change, but represents a significant investment ('08 third-round pick).
John McCargo, DT - Signed through 2011. Nothing more than a rotational tackle at this point in his disappointing career.
Paul Posluszny, LB - Signed through 2011. Sure to be the most intensely-debated player on this list.
Drayton Florence, CB - Signed through 2011. Has been excellent as a fill-in starter, and has scheme versatility.
Reggie Corner, CB - Signed through 2012. Reserve-type corner that has his uses, but should never be counted on as a starter.
Donte Whitner, S - Signed through 2011, with an opt-out clause in the final year. Could be a UFA as soon as this coming March. New regime might feel differently about him.
John Wendling, S - Signed through 2011. Special teams player only.
Rian Lindell, K - Signed through 2012. Reliable and gets more consistent with age.

Your Task
There's your list, folks. Some of those names obviously carry much more weight and importance than others. Your task: pick out the players that you believe are worth keeping around. Then, of those names, split them into starters and reserves. Combined with your input from the original post, this should really cement your ideas about where you'd take the franchise if you were GM.

Bills make plays late, give Fewell first win

MattRichWarren — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:11:36 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

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For the first time in recent memory, the Buffalo Bills were the ones putting a team away late in the fourth quarter in their 31-14 win over the Miami Dolphins.

A career-long 56-yard field goal from Rian Lindell put the Bills up 17-14 with 3:40 left in the fourth quarter. On the ensuing drive, Chris Kelsay applied heat to Chad Henne, who floated a pass that was picked off by Drayton Florence with 2:43 remaining. Everyone thought the Bills would try and bleed some clock on their possession, but Ryan Fitzpatrick had other ideas. The starting quarterback audibled at the line of scrimmage and threw a perfectly-timed deep ball to Terrell Owens for a 51-yard touchdown to ice the game with 2:31 left. Interceptions by Donte Whitner and Corey Mace sealed the deal.

The Bills' offense was not without their faults on the day, as Fitzpatrick was picked off once and sacked six times. New addition Kendall Simmons had what I'll politely call a rough outing at right guard, giving up two sacks and getting in on the penalty party by jumping offside once.

Fred Jackson got the start in the backfield for the Bills today and picked up 73 yards on 15 carries. Fitzpatrick cemented his status as Buffalo's starter with a big day, throwing for 246 yards and the long touchdown to Owens. Fitzpatrick also started the Bills' scoring by rushing for a 31-yard touchdown on a broken pass play.

Buffalo's defense allowed Ricky Williams and the Dolphins to march down the field early. A Chris Draft interception on an ill-advised Williams goal line pass thwarted the first Miami drive, but Williams amassed 115 yards rushing and a touchdown on 27 carries. Henne was 17 of 30 for 175 yards, including a touchdown pass to Brian Hartline and the three late picks.

The win moves Buffalo to 4-7 on the season and to a short week to prepare for the 5-6 New York Jets. That game will be played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and will be broadcast on the NFL Network. The Dolphins fall to 5-6 on the season, and this loss severely hurts their playoff chances (which couldn't make me happier).

Opponent History: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

sireric — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:00:15 -0000

Buffalo Bills (3-7) vs Miami Dolphins (5-5)
Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 1:00 PM EST
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

The Buffalo Bills have begun to play division opponents for the second time. The first meeting this year had the Bills heading into Miami with high hopes for the season, while the Miami Dolphins had just lost Chad Pennington for the year and were still without a win. We all know how that match-up ended.

Chad Henne, he of the too-small helmet and scrunched up forehead, leads the Dolphins into Buffalo this week. The last five meetings at the Ralph after the jump.

Sunday, October 17, 2004: Bills 20, Dolphins 13
Drew Bledsoe. Jay Fiedler. Need I say more about the suck involved in this game? Both sides got a touchdown and two field goals out of their offenses, but the difference was a Takeo Spikes pick-six. The Bills' D came to play in this game, recording five sacks along the way. Aaron Schobel (2.5), Ron Edwards (2.0) and Pat Williams (0.5) did the honors. Other than that, there isn't a whole lot to tell.

Sunday, October 9, 2005: Bills 20, Dolphins 14
The score and date looks eerily similar to the year before. This time, the Bills jumped out to a 17-0 lead on the strength of a Willis McGahee one-yard touchdown run, an Eric Moulds touchdown from Kelly Holcomb, and a Rian Lindell 24-yard field goal. Gus Frerotte led the Dolphins back by hitting Will Heller and Randy McMicheal for scores to bring the Fish back to within three points. Lindell would hit his second field goal of the day to cap the scoring and help preserve the win for Buffalo. Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney each had a sack in this game.

Sunday, December 17, 2006: Bills 21, Dolphins 0
J.P. Losman tossed three touchdown passes, one each to Robert Royal, Josh Reed, and Lee Evans. That was more then enough scoring, as the Bills' defense shout out the Cleo Lemon/Joey Harrington lead Dolphins offense. Schobel and Kelsay proved yet again that they are only effective against the Dolphins by getting another half-sack each.

Sunday, December 9, 2007: Bills 38, Dolphins 17
The Bills jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks to a George Wilson fumble return for a touchdown and not one but two Trent Edwards-to-Robert Royal touchdown passes. Samkon Gado put the ball in the endzone for the Dolphins twice, but those scores sandwiched a Lindell field goal and an Evans touchdown catch. Evans would catch one more to continue his dominance over the Dolphins. Both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch rushed for over 100 yards in this game. Being that Cleo Lemon was at QB for the Dolphins, this was of course a good day for the Bills' D numbers-wise. Four sacks and two interceptions (one each by Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee) added to the eight fumbles by the Dolphins. Of course, the Bills were only able to recover 3 of those 8.

Notice a pattern? The first two games had the Bills playing the Dolphins almost a year apart to the day and winning by almost identical scores. The second two have the Bills winning by identical margins (21) almost a year to the day apart. The dates are also the same - 17 and 9. Weird.

Sunday, December 7, 2008: Dolphins 16, Bills 3
The Bills' first-ever regular season game played in Toronto gave the Canadian fans quite the show. The Bills had almost nothing on offense that day, gaining only 163 total yards. J.P. Losman was the Bills leading rusher with 53 yards. Of course Losman offset his rushing prowess by getting sacked 4 times...