SB Nation - Matt Prater

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:43:37 -0000

Yes, Charlie Frye was the guy going into this one. No, he wasn't the last one standing. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

It thankfully wasn't JaMarcus Russell getting the start under center. Instead, it was Charlie Frye getting the start at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders today as they hoped to put a minor dent into the the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes. Little did we know that both Russell and Frye would play a role in deciding the outcome of today's game. The Raiders (4-9) and the Broncos (8-5) met earlier this year in Oakland in which Denver prevailed convincingly. Last year in Denver, however, it was Oakland who came away with a shocking 31-10 victory. This time around, let's see how the two bitter rivals went at each other. Anything can happen in a rivalry game between two original AFL franchises.

Michael Bush made his only carry in the first quarter worth an important six points. [via a.espncdn.com]

First Quarter: The Broncos began the game kicking it off to the Raiders. Not surprisingly, the ineffective Gary Russell was returning kicks. He took a knee, though, and the kick into the end zone actually benefited us. Charlie Frye, a 6-14 record as a starter, took the field and threw an incomplete pass on the first play. Out of the power-I, Justin Fargas gained a few yards on the next play. Needing seven yards, a six-yard pass to Chaz Schilens brought out the punt team. Shane Lechler only managed a weak 45-yard punt right to Eddie Royal which was returned for not too many yards. On first down, the rookie out of Georgia by the name of Knowshon Moreno carried it to the right side and was tackled by Nnamdi Asomugha. On second down, Greg Ellis almost got to Kyle Orton and forced an incomplete pass off the deflection. A false start penalty on tight Daniel Graham set Denver back some more, and they needed 12 yards on third down. It didn't matter as Royal picked up more than enough to convert it. Utilizing the running backs effectively -- particularly Knowshon Moreno with just a little dash of Correll Buckhalter -- allowed the Broncos to move down the field nicely. A third down stop inside the 10 by the Raiders defense forced a chip shot field goal by Matt Prater. The Broncos had taken the early 3-0 lead. The second possession started with a four-yard pass from Frye to Schilens. A three-yard run by Darren McFadden made it a very, very manageable third down. The Broncos out of the blitz and despite being in a shot gun, Frye hurried the throw. It wasn't much a throw. The ball just sort of floated out there and Champ Bailey grabbed it easily out of the air. On Denver's first play on their next possession, Brandon Marshall made a 24-yard catch after running his route after being put in motion. Two plays later, the Broncos ran a screen to Ryan Clady which cost them yards thanks to a very nice tackle by Asomugha. A confusing penalty pushed the Broncos back to the 17 yard line. Kyle Orton was sacked by rookie Matt Shaughnessy on the next play, and then a screen play to Eddie Royal was stopped by Stanford Routt and company on the right side. Another Matt Prater field goal -- this one extra "boomy" -- gave Denver a 6-0 lead with just over four minutes to play in the first quarter. A dumb intentional grounding penalty cost the Raiders 15 yards and a down. Kenny Peterson squashed Fargas behind the line of scrimmage and it become third down and impossible. Another blah run and it was punt time once again. A 64-yard punt by Lechler, all of which came by of the leg, was returned for a mediocre gain by Kenny McKinley. Moreno continued to own us on the ground with a couple of more nice carries. A third down blitz forced an incomplete pass on coverage by, yes, Chris Johnson! Mitch Berger, who seem as if has been punting forever, booted a smashing 12-yard punt out of bounds. Oakland started at their own 34 yard line and Charlie Frye shocked the crowd with a 26-yard scamper on the left side after a play fake. That exciting play capped the first quarter at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Sebastian Janikowski dropped in a 54-yard field goal as he routinely does. [via a.espncdn.com]

Second Quarter: The second quarter began with Frye looking deep for Louis Murphy; however, it was incomplete although an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders five free yards. Shortly, third down and long followed. A nice crossing pattern to Johnnie Lee Higgins picked up 12 yards and the first down as well. Then boom, I don't even know what just happened! Michael Bush, on his first carry of the game, goes 23 yards and in for the score. It's his first touchdown in nine games and a Sebastian Janikowski extra point gave Oakland a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter. Denver's next possession ended up with a punt after a first down. Mike Mitchell knocked down Orton after bringing the blitz on third down. Higgins returned the punt for a decent gain and the Raiders had good field position. After some plays, Elvis Dumervil grabbed Charlie Frye's facemask and was called for a roughing the passer penalty. A 15-yard penalty gave Oakland the ball at their own 48. A couple of run plays later made it third and manageable for Frye and company. Chased out of the pocket, Frye threw off of his back foot and hit Murphy on the right side. It was a great effort by both parties. Josh McDaniels threw out the challenge flag, but it only cost him a timeout in the end. The ruling on the field stood as originally called and Oakland had a first down at Denver's 41 yard line. McFadden picked up three yards on a carry to the left side as we Raider fans collectively as a bunch were wondering where Michael Bush was. Anyway, the game must go on. A one-yard pass from Frye to Luke Lawton on a play-action made it third down and six yards to go. Ah, now Bush is in the backfield. Out of the shot gun, Frye fired down the field to Schilens. It appeared as if Schilens had come down with it, but Denver's Tony Carter wouldn't give up on the play and made a nice play on the ball. Janikowski squeaked in a field goal to give the Raiders had a 10-6 lead over the Broncos. Denver opened up their next drive with what's been working well and that's been Knowshon Moreno's legs. A six-yard carry was all very well, but then Tyvon Branch blew the next one up in the backfield. An incomplete pass intended for LaMont Jordan set up a punt and a bunch of booing from the home crowd. A punt gave it back to Oakland, but it backed them up 15 yards after the Higgins return because of an illegal block in the back penalty on Sam Williams. According to commentator Steve Tasker, a former special teams specialist, claims there was no illegal block in the back. It didn't matter what he thought, however. A timeout was burned by Frye before the first play was run. Brandon Myers, filling in for the injured Zach Miller, made his first catch of the game for a decent gain. Michael Bush finally got a carry after his 23-yard touchdown in the first quarter and it was good enough for a first down. Frye was having communication problems with his helmet, so he ran over to the sidelines to get the play yelled at him. Andra Davis almost picked off Frye on the next play. Whew, that was close. Another near-turnover happened on the next play as Bush lost it; however, left tackle Mario Henderson was able to pick it up. A third down draw to Bush goes for 13 yards and Denver's defense had no idea. A solid run by McFadden took us to the two-minute warning. In good position for points, the Raiders looked to forge ahead some more. A nice throw from Frye to Murphy picked up a good chunk of yards and yet another 13-yard run by Bush took it to Denver's 16 yard line. Tony Stewart got into the act a few plays later with his first catch of the game. The Broncos got their stop on third down and the Raiders were confined to just three points. Janikowski booted through his second field goal of the day and Oakland had a 13-6 lead over Denver. Using up 22 seconds, the Broncos had three incomplete passes and then a short little pass over the middle to Jabar Gaffney. Tom Cable used his final timeout and forced the Broncos to at least bring out the punting unit. A 45-yard punt ended the half with Oakland on top over Denver by a 13-6 score. Oh, but wait as there was a penalty and so the Raiders got the chance to run one more play. A nice run for McFadden took us to halftime.

Honoring Chris Henry before the game, Brandon Marshall scored a touchdown during it. [via a.espncdn.com]

Third Quarter: The Broncos started the second half with the ball. A touchback by Janikowski plated Denver at their own 20. After picking up a first down, Kirk Morrison made a nice tackle in the open field to bring up a third down for the Broncos. Orton fired and completed it to Brandon Stokley as he, along with Tony Scheffler, made his first catch of the game on the opening drive of the second half. A 13-yard run by LaMont Jordan followed that as Hiram Eugene knocked him out of bounds. The Denver offense appeared to be firing on all cylinders as Orton hooked up with Eddie Royal in the middle of the field. A sense of urgency indeed from the Broncos offense, Gus Johnson. A big third down and long Denver could not convert thanks to a heavy blitz and great coverage by Chris Johnson. Matt Prater banged through his field third goal of the game and Oakland maintained their lead, with it now standing at 13-9. Oakland had the ball back and Frye hit Bush in the flat for a nice gain on the left side to pick up a first down. A toss to McFadden on the right side -- hey, McFadden in space -- picked up good yardage and even a first down in the process. Shaken up on the play was Champ Bailey, and he had to leave the game. A promising drive turned sour, however, with McFadden getting the ball stripped. Denver had it at midfield. A struggling offense has gained momentum just like that. On the first play, though, Asomugha blew it up in the backfield as he dropped Moreno for a four-yard loss. A stupid penalty on the other side of the field went against Stanford Routt and a third down and 11 turned into an automatic first down. A one-handed grab by Brandon Marshall gave the Broncos a first down and then he made another play all the way down to the Raiders' 19 yard line. Denver really took advantage of Marshall in this quarter when Asomugha wasn't on him. On a scamper by Kyle Orton, Tommy Kelly was down on the field with an injury. Some plays later, Orton hooked up with Marshall as Brandon was a yard deep in the end zone against a zone defense. Following that play, a fight occurred. I didn't see who exactly was involved, but it looked like Richard Seymour against some offensive linemen from Denver. Anyway, Denver cashed in on the McFadden fumble and the Broncos had scored 10 straight points to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter. Gary Russell finally got a chance to return a kick and it was actually a good one; however, penalty flag totally negated that one. It seems like the game is totally spiraling out now. A couple of sweet runs by Michael Bush -- including one of the 40-yard variety -- took the ball down to the 31 yard line of Denver's. Then, Darren McFadden had a huge run of his own that went for 28 yards on the left side. After a pair of one-yard Bush runs, the Raiders were still on the outside looking in with 28 seconds to go in the third quarter. On third down and needing a yard, another carry for Bush went nowhere but instead backwards. That ended the third quarter.

Yes, this is the correct reaction after JaMarcus Russell's performance. [via a.espncdn.com]

Fourth Quarter: To start the quarter, the Raiders were looking for the end zone. On fourth down, Cable elected to go for it. A fake dive and pitch to McFadden went for two yards, but was ultimately a yard short. Denver took over at their own one yard line. The defense stood firm, however, and Berger booted it to Higgins. A nice punt, Higgins backpedaled and was able to return it for some yards to his own 40 yard line. Carries by McFadden, Bush and then Bush again picked up a first down for the Raiders as they moved into Broncos territory. Frye dropped back to pass and was totally rocked by Andra Davis. Trying to get up to his feet under his own power, Frye just could not due to the impact of the hit. The trainers came onto the field and so, yes, JaMarcus Russell marched onto the field as we hung our heads. Where was J.P. Losman? An illegal shift penalty pinned the Raiders back even further. A run by Bush was followed up by a timeout. Let's have a recap within the recap for a second. Russell comes in and we have two men in motion at the same time, a weak run to the left side and then a timeout. Alright, so the run play wasn't on him. Still, you see what it's like with Russell in the game at quarterback instead of right tackle. Well, the next pass was totally short intended for Murphy and a five-yard spiking penalty on Louis brought out Lechler for a punt. The Broncos came out running it with Moreno and Jordan, and the Raiders are going to need a stop somehow to get the offense back out there. On the next play, a slant to Stokley went all the down inside he five as he beat Routt on that play. A horse collar penalty on Routt was tacked on. There was a bit of a delay afterward with some laser trouble in the crowd, but the game was continued. A stop on third down on the ground and a fourth down stop through the air held Denver to a field goal. After lasers and guys losing their pants, we had a bit of a scrummage after the field goal. It's all going down today. Just under six minutes remained with the Broncos on top, 19-13. A run by Bush and a four-yard reception by Schilens made it a very manageable third down for Russell. A low ball to Bush, that should have been caught, was dropped by Bush. The defense did their part, largely due to the sack, and Oakland was getting the ball back after the Denver punt. After a Higgins return, the Raiders had it at their own 38 yard line with still 3:29 to play. Russell was still the quarterback. On the first play, Cooper Carlisle had to scoop up a Russell fumble. God, we're doomed. Oh, but a flag on the next play on Andre Goodman gave the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory. A pass interference was rightfully called and new life had been granted. On second down, Russell was knocked out of the game. It's up to quarterback number three -- J.P. "Does He Even Know a Play?" Losman -- to save us now. After one incomplete pass by Losman, Russell was back in there. On fourth down, he fired it over the middle and it was caught by Tony Stewart who had enough for a first down. That took us to the two-minute warning. The first play out of it, Russell hit Stewart for nine yards. Following that, he found Schilens at the 10 yard line. Following an incomplete pass, an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders an automatic first down at the five. There were 45 seconds to go in the game. Out of the shot gun, right tackle Cornell Green had a false start. That's pretty inexcusable. Still, it was a first down. Out of the shot gun, Russell dropped back to pass and has his arm hit as he he threw. The ball went out of bounds to the right. Then, on the next play, the impossible happened. Russell fires and it's caught by Chaz Schilens, his favorite target. With 35 seconds to go, the Broncos had just one timeout remaining. McKinley brought out the kick to the 21 yard line. Greg Ellis breaks through on the first play and sacks Kyle Orton while forcing a fumble in the meantime. After a second down incomplete pass, a deep ball to Brandon Marshall was broken up thanks to a huge hit from Michael Huff. A fourth down pass was completed to Brandon Stokley with about eight seconds to go; however, with no timeouts, Denver couldn't stop the clock. The game was over the Raiders had prevailed, 20-19, on the road over the Broncos.

The caption goes right here. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D+ -- When you only complete less than 50 percent of your passes and you throw for 115 yards with an interception, you don't even deserve a "D+" grade; however, when you lead your team down the field like that to win the game, there's a curve involved. I think this is even a little generous.
Rush Offense: A -- Michael Bush had a tremendous day on the ground and Darren McFadden was certainly very good himself despite just 12 carries. Overall, a touchdown to go along with a 7.1 yards per carry average is very nice. Getting that touchdown in the third quarter maybe would've bumped it up to an "A+" grade, but we'll take this one every single time out.
Pass Defense: B -- Brandon Marshall was contained to a degree and that's all you can really ask for against a great wide receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha covered him well, but Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson didn't. Overall, the heat was on Kyle Orton enough to make him uncomfortable back there at times.
Rush Defense: A- -- A bad start, yes, but the rush defense really put the clamps down. LaMont Jordan had a nice average, but Knowshon Moreno did absolutely nothing in the second half. This was probably our best game as a unit as far as the opposition's ground game goes.
Special Teams: B -- Maybe not a great return pursuit a few times and Lechler didn't have his best day, but overall, it was a really good effort. Gary Russell didn't get a chance to return too many, but Johnnie Lee Higgins was decent and Sebastian Janikowski didn't miss.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: Wow, that was a terrific ending. Who thought that Frye would get knocked out, Russell would get knocked out and then Losman would have to come in? Then, who thought Russell would come back in the game and then lead the team to a game-winning touchdown drive? Man, that was an incredible game. The defense really played hard. The defensive line brought the heat, the linebackers tackled and the defensive backs made plays all over the field. That's how you respond after a bad game, guys. Let's finally get two consecutive wins with us taking on the Cleveland Browns (3-11) next Sunday. Thank you, Oakland Raiders, for our early Christmas present.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Brandon Marshall named AFC Player of the Week

John Bena — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 02:34:18 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, catches a pass over Indianapolis Colts safety Tim Jennings for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall will be named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for games played during the 14th week (Dec. 10-14) of the 2009 season, the National Football League informed the Broncos on Tuesday.

Marshall's selection as AFC Offensive Player of the Week is the second such award of his four-year NFL career. He also received the honor for his effort in Week 2 of the 2008 season against San Diego.

During Denver's game at Indianapolis on Sunday, Marshall posted an NFL-record 21 receptions for a career-high 200 yards with two touchdowns. His 21 catches surpassed Terrell Owens' previous league record of 20 receptions, which he totaled for San Francisco vs. Chicago on Dec. 17, 2000.

Below are a few notes on Marshall's performance against Indianapolis:

His NFL-record 21 catches vs. Indianapolis give him two of the top-four single-game receiving totals in NFL history. His 18 grabs (166 yds., 1 TD) vs. San Diego on Sept. 14, 2008, tie for the third-highest single-game total in NFL annals.
His 21 catches represented his eighth career game with at least 10 receptions, marking the most by a player through his first four seasons in NFL history.
The former University of Central Florida star was targeted 28 times, which represented the highest such total in the NFL since at least the 1994 season.
His 12 receiving first downs were the most by an NFL player in four seasons and tied for the fourth-highest total in the league since at least the 1994 season.
His 200 receiving yards represented the third-highest total by a Bronco in club history and were the highest total by a Denver player in five seasons (Rod Smith, 208 yds., vs. Atl., 10/31/04) as well as the highest total by an AFC player this year.

Marshall is Denver's fifth AFC Player of the Week winner this season, joining cornerback Champ Bailey (Wk. 4 vs. Dallas), quarterback Kyle Orton (Wk. 5 vs. New England), wide receiver/returner Eddie Royal (Wk. 6 at San Diego) and kicker Matt Prater (Wk. 12 vs. N.Y. Giants). He is Denver's 45th AFC Offensive Player of the Week winner since the award was initiated by the NFL in 1984.

Horse Tracks - 12/9/09 - Broncos Lose Harris For the Season

John Bena — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:04:49 -0000

Yes, the loss of Ryan Harris is unfortunate, but certainly not unexpected. Perhaps the most important asset an offensive tackle has are his feet and footwork. That is what makes Ryan Clady so effective. An injury, such as a dislocated big-toe, can be a huge problem. Credit to Harris for trying to gut it out. Now the burden falls to Tyler Polumbus. He's played the majority of games the past 5 weeks and has improved as time has gone on. The time is now for Polumbus, who grew up in Denver and went to Colorado, to lay-claim to a future spot on the Broncos offensive line.

DB.com - Warriors of a Winter Food Drive(Zach Eisendrath and Chris Gentisalvo)
That tradition received a reward on Tuesday morning when Darrell Reid, Wesley Woodyard, Broncos cheerleaders Romi Bean and Jessica Flores and Broncos mascot Miles attended the students' lunch hour to congratulate them for their efforts.

DB.com - Holidays Come Early(Gary Caldwell)
There were plenty of smiles and full carts as the holidays came a little early Monday night.

DP - Broncos OT Harris out for season
The Broncos will play the rest of the season, including any playoff games, without starting right tackle Ryan Harris.

DP - How about Broncos' McDaniels for NFL coach of the year?(Mark Kiszla)
For everybody who cursed this young football coach for trading Jay Cutler, condemned his draft picks as madness or demanded he be fired before his first game on the Broncos' sideline, it's time to consider calling Josh McDaniels a new name:

DP - Broncos use Champ to be champ of special teams(Lindsay Jones)
No, that wasn't an error on the play-by-play report from the Broncos' 44-13 victory at Kansas City on Sunday. That really was Champ Bailey — yes, the likely future Hall of Fame cornerback — running downfield on a kickoff and making a solo tackle on a third-quarter kick return.

DP - Broncos' Prater has a big leg up on 2008(Jeff Legwold)
It's a simple, proven formula. To play the kind of field-position football the Broncos want to play down the stretch, it will start with their kicker, Matt Prater.

DP - Moreno looking good for the long run(Jim Armstrong)
This just in. Knowshon Moreno, after a preseason that included the obligatory contract holdout and a knee injury, is on pace to run for 1,000 yards.

DP - Harris out: What it means for the line(Lindsay Jones)
There is no doubt the Broncos will miss right tackle Ryan Harris, who is not going to be able to play the rest of the season because of the serious injury to his big right toe.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

16 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

26 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) reacts after sacking New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.

Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.

It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.

I spent a lot of time watching each of the losses and trying to comprehend exactly why, in terms of their on-field play, they were losing. It was a helpful exercise. The losses showed exactly why we were struggling and the victory last week showed equally well what happens when you rectify those same errors. Losing is usually about errors -- sometimes you just are beaten by a better team, but most of the time you open the door and usher them into the victory circle. Jimmy Johnson is a complicated man but he nailed it when he pointed out that you only have to beat about 10 teams in the NFL. The others will create the victory for you if you just stay around. That's exactly what Denver was doing.

The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.

For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.

Tight Spots

It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.

About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.

When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.

Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.

Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.

It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.

Being Offensive

Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.

The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.

In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.

An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.

At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.

There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?

A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.

Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.

I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.

I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.

Not-so Special Teams

In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.

It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.

And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.

If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:

Week 8, Baltimore: 20.55

Week 9, Pittsburgh: 21.64

Week 10, Washington: 27.91

Week 11, San Diego: 29.60

Week 12, New York: 30.20

The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.

Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.

Throwdown, Elvis Style

Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.

When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.

Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.

It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.

If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.

What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.

Rookies

There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.

Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.

It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.

This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.

That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.

I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.

Knowing Knowshon Moreno

Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:

"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."

Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.

Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).

Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.

By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:

During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.

To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.

By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.

Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.

Orton and Learning

There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.

It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:

"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."

What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.

You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.

Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .

For Kicks

Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.

Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.

"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.

Kansas City Here I Come

Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.

KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.

The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.

One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.

There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...

Go Broncos!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 12

TJ Johnson — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Giving Thanks!!!!

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The Stats don't mean what they say on Thanksgiving, Mom. You know that. That's what the day's supposed to be all about, right? Torture.--Holly Hunter

Thanksgiving and football. It didn't get much better in Week 12. Like you and your family, some teams greedily feasted on the mashed potatoes (Dallas on Oakland), some teams kicked up their feet and loosened their belts (Green Bay feeling fat and bloated as they coasted over Detroit), and some teams simply went straight for the pumpkin pie (New Orleans tasting a sweet victory over New England).

Your Denver Broncos stuffed the New York Giants like turkeys.

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of The Stats that Don't Lie. These stats are your extra gravy. They are the statistical whipped cream that you squirt into your mouth right from the can. They are the stats that you think about as you ignore your in-laws and fall asleep on the couch. As always, they are Turnovers (giveaways to be truthful), Field Position, Time Of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

Before we jump in, you might have noticed that you are getting this edition on Tuesday rather than the normal Wednesday. That's because Ted Bartlett was feeling a little under the weather, so we decided to switch days. Ted should be well enough to bring you his Shallow Thoughts and Nearsighted Observations tomorrow.

Until then, you're getting stats. And you're going to like it. Don't make me send you to eat at the kids' table.

The View From the Airplane

The Turnover-Margin-Bar Graph rarely lies. I enjoy putting this up each week because if you take nothing else away from these columns (and that's quite likely), simply take this picture and burn it into your brain:

As always, I point out that I "normalized" the New England game to take away the Hail Mary interception.

Quick, go grab the dork in your office or dorm or cell (for fans of the Raiders) that knows nothing about football and show them this graph. Tell them that a positive margin is a good thing. Then ask them how many of these games they think the Broncos might have won. They will certainly guess six, at a minimum. And they'll wonder if New England was a tie. If there's one thing we've learned about this year's Denver Broncos, it's that they are going to live and die by turnover margin. While this is true of most teams, Denver seems to be particularly suited to the influence of turnovers (more on this later). In the case of the Giants game, if a team has a plus-2 turnover margin, they win 78% of the time. It's little wonder Denver took Eli and Company to the woodshed.

Here is where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league with respect to turnovers (giveways, but I hate this word more than the word "Cutler"), field position, time of possession, and 3rd-down efficiency:

Denver has improved in most areas from last week, in which they were 10th in turnovers (giveaways), 27th in field position, 22nd in time of possession, and 21st in 3rd-down efficiency.

As the greatest poet of his generation (or at least his after party) Bret Michaels, once said, "Every rose has its thorn." 3rd-down efficiency is the thorn for Denver. This is precisely one of the reasons the Broncos are a team that, unlike Indianapolis, can't overcome turnovers. Notice that Indianapolis leads the league in 3rd-down efficiency. It's this high percentage that allows them to overcome turnovers in the first half like they did against both New England and last week against Houston. If the Broncos can't improve this percentage on 3rd downs, a minus-1 turnover margin could doom them (and I don't mean Dumervil).

This brings me to the New Orleans Saints. Look at their rankings. They are 16th in turnovers, 3rd in field position, 9th in time of possession, and third in 3rd-down efficiency. How are they 11-0 with such a high turnover (giveaway) number/game?

It's because that are a clone of the Indianapolis Colts, only with better field position. In the case of both Indianapolis and New Orleans, time of possession really is incidental to their yards/play average. They are both quick-strike offenses (look for my Quick-Strike Index coming soon in another piece). Their drives are generally quicker, take less plays, and are deadlier to the other team. So the fact that they commit a turnover (or two) early in the game is not as big a deal as it would be for another team (hello, Denver!).

Turnovers, as we have noted, are not all created equal. A turnover committed early in the game is less valuable to the opponent than a turnover late (less time in the game means less options, obviously). So as long as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees aren't throwing picks in the 3rd and 4th quarters (which they are not), their teams' ability to get down the field quickly can easily overcome these early turnovers.

Some of you might be quick to note that last week I said I believed Minnesota was a better team than New Orleans. I still feel this way. Minnesota won't be at all intimidated by playing in a dome, and I really am inspired by Jared Allen's mullet. As far as the AFC goes, it's time that I accept the fate that is the Indianapolis Colts.

This weekly piece wouldn't be complete without again pointing out the Bears' ranking of field position. This week they rank 1st. Imagine what damage they could be doing if Jay Cutler's arm wasn't such a wishbone.

Week-12 Summaries:

There were several games worth mentioning, but let's start with Denver's. We've already noted the turnover margin, but it's also important to talk about field position. Remember, field position is fluid, so as the ball is advanced up the field, the expected points value changes. Denver essentially kept the Giants on their side of the field for most of the game. The Giants only entered Denver territory three times in the entire game and one was on the last drive when the game was essentially over. Mitch Berger and Matt Prater both had their best games of the season. All of this kept the Giants on their side of the field where the expected point values were much much lower (for those that are looking for an in-depth analysis of the fluidity and point expectation of field position, it's coming). This certainly contributed to Denver's victory.

Another game was Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore, but only because the stats lied again. Pittsburgh won all four categories, but Baltimore escaped with the victory in overtime. This is again a lesson in the context of turnovers. The later a turnover happens in a game, the more valuable (or damaging) it is. Again, a turnover in the first quarter can be overcome, especially with a quick-strike offense. However, in this case, the interception that Pittsburgh threw as they were entering Baltimore territory was in overtime (as late as you can get), and thus, the key to this game. Just how much was that turnover worth? Stats guys will tell you a turnover, no matter where it's committed, is worth 4 points. Given Pittsburgh's season at this point, one could argue from the heart that it was worth a lot more.

The final game of note was the Monday night affair between New Orleans and New England. First, New Orleans coach Sean Payton thinks so much of the 3rd-down efficiency stat that he decided to shove the stat for this in Suzy Kolber's face at halftime. As a stats guy, I think it's cute. Beats Joe Namath. Second, on the Patroit's second drive, they were seizing momentum until Brady threw the interception. From that point forward, things seemed to snowball on New England. The impact of turnovers on momentum can't be overstated. Third, on New Orleans' touchdowns, they had drives of 59, 75, 76, 74, and 75 yards. They averaged only 5 plays/per drive on these drives, and finally, their average yards/play was 14.36. In other words, the Saints can get the ball down the field in a BIG hurry. Talk about a quick-strike offense.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

5 teams had 0 turnovers. 3 won (60%); For the season, 56/70 (80%)
12 teams had 1 turnover. 9 won (75%); For the season, 57/99 (58%)
6 teams had 2 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 43/94 (46%)
5 teams had 3 turnovers. 1 won (20%); For the season, 13/50 (26%)
3 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/24 (17%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/9 (0%)

Week 12 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 14 of 16 games played (88%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (2 games) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
There were 7 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 7 of the 8, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 59 out of 64 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.13 turnovers, 32:07 in time of possession, 40.09% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 29.55 yard line.

Top 5 in Week 12:

Top 5 in giveaways: Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Arizona are all tied with 0
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Minnesota 2.Cincinnati 3.Pittsburgh 4.Denver 5. San Diego
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Minnesota 2.Green Bay 3.San Francisco 4.Houston 5.Washington/Cincinnati
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Washington 2.Chicago 3.Cincinnati 4.Seattle 5.San Diego

Running Totals, Season (through 12 weeks):

176 games have been played this season
80.68% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
67.61% with a better time of possession
65.91% by the team who won on 3rd down
71.02% by the team that won the field-position battle.

12-week League Averages:

12-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.69

12-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

12-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.81%

12-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.68 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Kansas City, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 29:31 28.12 35.51%

Kansas City 1.36 29:10 30.11 22.21%

I'm downright giddy to watch Denver's defense destroy Kansas City on 3rd downs. Despite the fact that Kansas City generally doesn't turn the ball over, they also can't sustain drives. And unlike the Colts or Saints, they don't have the quick-strike ability to avoid 3rd downs. If Denver's 3rd-down defense holds true, they should be in excellent shape. As always, Denver must avoid turnovers.

What about playing in December in Kansas City? Is it the early gamet ime? The humidity? The crazy fans? I don't know. But Brian Dawkins is immune to it. And Josh McDaniels hasn't heard about it. And most important, the fans are probably still napping off their Thanksgiving, wishing Marty Schottenheimer had never left. Lucky for Bronco fans, he did. Playing against his teams was always tough.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 100% (percentage chance that Ryan Clady is a better draft pick than Branden Albert).

Horse Tracks 12/1/09 - Broncos given extra day of rest, return to practice today in preparation for trip to KC

Douglas A. Lee — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:36:05 -0000

DB - Weekly Press Release - Patrick Smyth

DPP - Broncos give any foe a run for money when they can run - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Hurting Broncos enjoy some rest - Lindsay Jones
"The Broncos also will be closely watching offensive tackle Ryan Harris, who is expected to return to the practice field in earnest this week for the first time since dislocating a big toe Nov. 1 against Baltimore."

DP - Broncos Mailbag: Giants caught napping? - Mike Klis

DPP - Analysis: Urlacher points out the Bears made a mistake the Broncos made first - Mike Klis

DPP - Q&A: McDaniels still in Cassel's fan club - Jeff Legwold

NFL - NFL declines to address investigation reports about McDaniels' spat
"McDaniels indicated the Broncos asked the NFL to look into the encounter, according to ESPN." Honestly, I think they should just leave it be...

CBS4 - Holliday Credits Win To 'Complimentary' Football - Matthew Buettner
I'm pretty sure (like roughly 100% so) that the word Vonnie used was "complementary" and not "complimentary". What makes the Broncos D play well is not telling each other, "Hey Elvis - nice play."

CBS4 - Elway Says Broncos Players-Only Meeting Helped - Jesse Sarles

CSG - Broncos rookie class having quiet year - Frank Schwab

DPP - Broncos eyeing ... The Chiefs - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Spotlight on Broncos kicker Matt Prater - Lindsay Jones

DPP - By the numbers, Broncos chasing only Chargers

KDVR - Broncos leading AFC Wild Card race - Chris Tanaka

DB - Ask Vonnie Holliday...

NFL Results

NFL - New England Patriots 17 at New Orleans Saints 38

NFP - The Monday Rewind - Matt Bowen

SI - New Orleans Saints look unbeatable while dismantling Patriots - Don Banks

Y! - Saints' monumental rout means 16-0 within grasp - Jason Cole

FH - Brees, Team Mardi Gras Headed to 16-0 - Jay Mariotti

SN - Saints have it all: a perfect blend of offense, defense - Dennis Dillon

NFP - Brees, Brady: good people, great players - Andrew Brandt

AFC West News

ESPN - Weis could land in the AFC West - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Injury updates - Kevin Acee
"Norv Turner confirmed that free safety Eric Weddle sprained his knee and will likely miss the next two games. Weddle, who has a sprained MCL, is expected to play Dec. 20 against Cincinnati. Turner also said he might consider resting outside linebacker Shawne Merriman this Sunday against the Browns."

SDUT - Why wait? Sign Turner - Nick Canepa
Yes! Please! Do it!!!! I understand he's been winning division titles, but that hasn't exactly taken much in recent years. The Dolts underachieve relative to their talent every single year...

SDUT - Browns give Bolts a needed respite - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Defense shows its depth in secondary - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Ex-Charger’s mistress charged with stalking - John Wilkens
Well, this explains the release of Chris Chambers...the drama-to-catches ratio was simply too high (sort of like the people-to-cake ratio).

KCS - Chiefs’ Haley knows Weis well - Adam Teicher

OT - Raiders safety Mike Mitchell bids to prove 'experts' wrong - Steve Corkran

NFL News

PFW - Week 13 matchup tidbits

NFL - Playoff Picture 2009

NFL - Falcons' Ryan to miss next game, maybe more with turf toe

NFL - Cardinals' Warner dealing with eye issues following concussion

NFL - Broken finger may finally sideline struggling Delhomme

NFL - Jackson's status remains uncertain for Eagles after concussion

NFL - Giants' Manning not 'overly concerned' over stress reaction in foot

NFL - Giants place defensive captain Pierce on injured reserve

NFL - Benson will be back for Bengals

NFL Opinion

NYT - Steelers’ Ward Voices Conflict Between Team Goals and Player Safety - Greg Bishop

NFP - The Monday Tavern - Mike Lombardi

NYT - N.F.L. Quick Hits, Week 12: Could Kubiak Be Finished? - Andy Benoit

NFL - Six from Sunday: Questionable calls prove costly - Pat Kirwan

ESPN - Fix Steelers' D; Woodson for DPOY - Jeffri Chadiha

SN - Week 12 Checkdown: Wild scramble ahead for final playoff spots - Vinnie Iyer
Iyer sees the Ravens and Steelers beating out Denver for the wild-card spots

CBS - December heat: Eight facing delivery deadlines - Clark Judge

NFL - Titans' Young has made the most of his second chance - Mike Lombardi

FOX - The Day After: Tale of two quarterbacks - John Czarnecki

SI - Steelers find capable backup QB in Dennis Dixon, but is there trouble? - Jerome Bettis

FH - Ravens' Ray Rice an Unexpected Star - Thomas George

NYT - Top 10 List: Quarterbacks Win on Final Play - John Maxymuk
Elway to Smith

Poll

Who do you think will be on Mike Shanahan's next coaching staff?

Gary Kubiak

118 votes

Jeremy Bates

101 votes

Both; Kubes as OC, Bates with the QBs

104 votes

Neither one

132 votes

Who cares?

384 votes

839 votes | Poll has closed

Horse Tracks 11/27/09 - Broncos dominate Giants; Royal, Woodyard, Thomas, Law all leave with injuries

Douglas A. Lee — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:43:49 -0000

Good Morning, MHR Friends! Now doesn't that feel better? It wasn't perfect (issues in the red zone, lots of offensive penalties), but the Broncos put in quite a performance last night. Their play along both lines of scrimmage was absolutely dominant, as the Giants' offense faced third-and-long situations all night long, while the Broncos' O-Line kept Kyle Orton mostly clean and paved the way for a solid game from Knowshon Moreno. The Broncos' D made several big plays, including three sacks and three takeaways. Denver's special teams were better than they've been all year, highlighted by a perfect night from Matt Prater (4-for-4 on field goal tries and 7-for-7 on getting kickoffs into the end zone). Brandon Marshall made two one-handed catches (I'm not sure I've seen better from him), Knowshon made some highlight-reel moves, and Denver's secondary was stellar. The Broncos now sit at 7-4 and just ahead of Pittsburgh and Jacksonville (both 6-4) for the fifth seed in the AFC. Next up? The fourth Sunday in seven without Broncos football. Strange, right? Then, it's off to Kansas City...

NFL - Broncos 26, Giants 6 - Highlights with NFLN calls

DB - Giants Postgame: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Giants Postgame: Report - Broncos TV

NFL - New York Giants 6 at Denver Broncos 26 - Box Score

DPP - Broncos stuff Giants, snap losing skid - Mike Klis

DPP - Briefs: Elvis nothing but "money" when it counts
"Wesley Woodyard (neck), Marcus Thomas (shoulder), Eddie Royal (thigh) and Ty Law (hamstring) all suffered game-ending injuries and were slow to leave the locker room. Running back Knowshon Moreno left the game in the second half with what appeared to be a hand or arm injury, but later returned to have one carry just before the two-minute warning...The Broncos players will be off for three days before returning to the practice field Monday. . . . Two Broncos were inactive with injuries, right tackle Ryan Harris (toe) and running back LaMont Jordan (back)."

CSG - What a difference a day (or four) makes - David Ramsey

DB - Giants Postgame: Orton - Broncos TV

NFLN - Dawkins on-field interview- Video

NFLN - Giants vs. Broncos highlights - Video
Eisen, Deion, Mooch and Faulk

DB - Giving Thanks on Gameday - Chris Gentilviso

DB - A Giant Release - Gray Caldwell

DB - Turkey Day Turnaround - Chris Gentilviso

DPP - Broncos' defense paves way for offense - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Marshall happier, more productive in Broncos' win over Giants - Lindsay Jones

DPP - McD swears Broncos are back - Mark Kiszla

DPP - Everything depends on defense - Dave Krieger

DPP - Broncos save their season - Jim Armstrong

DPP - Manning, Giants struggle to create offense - Irv Moss

DPP - TV eavesdrops as coach drops the #?@$*! bomb - Mike Klis

CSG - Broncos pummel Giants - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos notes: No issues for Orton - Frank Schwab

CSG - Week 12: Broncos breakdown - Frank Schwab

SX - Emotions help power Broncos past Giants - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos Snap 4-Game Skid With Big Win Over Giants - Arnie Stapleton

AP - Josh McDaniels' 'Trash Talk' The Talk Of The NFL - Arnie Stapleton

CBS - Players-only meeting serves its purpose as Broncos go back to basics - Pete Prisco

SN - For Broncos, season is 'far from over' - Clifton Brown

FH - Hungry Broncos Shove Giants Aside - Thomas George

ESPN - Broncos kiss and makeup with their season - Bill WIlliamson

USAT - Broncos end four-game skid with dominant win over Giants - Vicki Michaelis

Giants News

NYT - Broncos Deal Giants Their Fifth Loss in Six Games - Joe LaPointe

NYT - Giants Open Thread: The Denver Debacle - Ernie Palladino

NYDN - After flat Thanksgiving Day performance against Broncos, Giants becoming a big disgrace - Tim Smith

NYDN - Danny Ware costs Giants big time after Denver capitalizes on critical fumble - Matt Gagne

NYDN - Giants tumble in 26-6 Broncos basting, season is officially in danger - Ralph Vacchiano

NYDN - Emotions get the best of Giants' Osi Umenyiora as he screams at teammates in loss to Broncos - Ralph Vacchiano

NYP - Big Blue's playoff hopes tumble in return to losing ways - Paul Schwartz

NYP - Broncos show Big Blue ‘D’ no respect - Marc Berman

NYP - Disgusted Brandon: We didn't want it - Marc Berman

NYP - No spark from Jints' backup RB - Steve Serby

NYP - These guys just Giant softies - Steve Serby

NFL Results

NFL - Oakland Raiders 7 at Dallas Cowboys 24

NFL - Green Bay Packers 34 at Detroit Lions 12

AFC West News

SFC - No country for these men - David White

SFC - Bigger in Texas? Not the Raiders - Gwen Knapp

SFC - Heyward-Bey gets first TD catch - David White

CCT - Raiders'shortcoming on full display - Jerry McDonald

SDUT - Why don't Chargers ward off blackout? - Jay Posner

SDUT - Penalties flagging, wins rising for Bolts - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Versatility aids Hester, Tolbert - Kevin Acee

KCS - Chiefs progressing in Haley’s quarter system - Kent Babb

KCS - Come overtime, here’s a tip for the Chiefs - Pete Grathoff
This is interesting...

NFL News

NFL - Packers CB Woodson donates $2 million to Michigan hospital

PFW - Seahawks GM Ruskell under the gun - Dan Arkush

NFL - Long live rock: The Who set to play Super Bowl XLIV halftime

NFL Opinion

NFL - Elite QB duel between Brady-Brees leads Week 12 matchups - Gil Brandt

Y! - Jobs on the line for members of losing teams - Mike Silver

Y! - Threat of perfect season becoming more common - Jason Cole

Giving Thanks! Broncos return to win column, dominate Giants 26-6

John Bena — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 04:55:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

26 days ago: New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, bottom, is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Wesley Woodyard during the second quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

We've talked a lot the past 5 weeks about what the Broncos are - both in our minds and in reality. I talked last Sunday after an embarrassing loss to the San Diego Chargers that the Broncos are what I thought they were in July - a team with talent, but a team that is not good enough, or deep enough, to make up for bad play in 1 of the 3 areas of the team - offense, defense or special teams. We saw that on Sunday - all three aspects of the team play poorly and the Broncos lose 32-3.

Tonight we saw what the Denver Broncos look like when all 3 parts of the team play well - a 26-6 win over the New York Giants.

Where to start? How about Brian Dawkins, who called a team meeting on Tuesday to get the Orange and Blue on the same page. The result? A defense that allowed 38 yards in the first half in shutting out the Giants at halftime for the first time since 2006. Dawkins was everywhere on the field, forcing a fumble and recovering a fumble. He also layed the wood to numerous Giants receivers and running backs making the G-Men pay for every yard. Dawkins left the game against the Chargers early and the team didn't seem to recover. Tonight, Dawkins led the way and the defense followed. A dominating performance.

Just how good was the defense tonight? Brandon Jacobs ran for 27 yards on 11 carries. Eli Manning was 24/40 for 230 yards - much of that in garbage time - while getting sacked 3 times. Manning threw a pick and also lost a fumble. The Giants has just 24 minutes of possession, and were 3-12 on 3rd down. Most impressive was the way the defense played in the Red Zone. They never had to. After allowing 17 Red Zone trips the past 4 games, the Giants never got inside the Broncos 20 until the final moments of the game. It was all Broncos, all the time.

What about the offense? The only thing that consistently stopped the Broncos was, well, themselves. Red Zone problems struck again early on when the Broncos had to settle for 2 field goals. One the Broncos' second trip, 3 procedure penalties killed the Broncos chances. That led to the now-famous F-Bomb by Josh McDaniels that NFLN played on it's broadcast. The Broncos listened, converting their next two chances. Overall, the team ended 2-5 inside the 20.

Kyle Orton was spectacular, save for one pass, in moving the team up and down the field. Orton ended 18/28 for 245 yards with a TD and a Pick. Most impressive to me was Orton's ability to sense pressure and slide around the pocket - something that many thought was a weakness in his game. As Orton has become more comfortable in the offense - behind a much better O-Line than he had in Chicago - many of you are seeing what I saw when Orton was at Purdue - a very, very good passing quarterback.

Knowshon Moreno was incredible as well. He's still trying to get that 100-yard game, but I think we can all see what made him the 12th pick in the draft. Moreno is starting to run with his eyes, and his instinct is taking over. Behnd Moreno, the Broncos ran the ball for 138 yards, and most importantly, the team was able to be well-balanced - 40 carries to 28 passes. Remember the Redskins game?? The exact opposite.

Of course, I can't forget about Brandon Marshall. The Beast was every part of that, making not one, but two amazing 1-handed catches at key moments of the 1st Half. For the game, Marshall had 6 catches for 86 yards. Tony 'Flash' Scheffler was solid as well, making 4 catches for 53 yards.

Kudos to the O-Line. After giving up a sack on the Broncos first play of the game, Kyle Orton was barely touched the rest of the night, and the running game showed some major signs of life. Russ Hochstein is proving to be a huge pick-up, and after struggling last week, Tyler Polumbus was steady at RT.

I have saved the best for last. The Special Teams group played their best game of the season - right up there with the group's performance against the Chargers nearly 6 weeks ago. Matt Prater was money - 5/5 on kick-offs, and 4/4 on field goal chances. Prater is now 15/17(88%) on field goal tries, and his re-found ability to kick the ball into the end-zone kept the Giants backed up all night.

Mitch Berger - the much-maligned Mitch Berger - was solid once again as well. Berger punted the ball 3 times, averaging 48.3 yards per kick, with a net of 41.7. The coverage was solid as well - with David Bruton once again showing he is going to be a player - he already is.

The Broncos now sit at 7-4, looking at 10-days between games before heading the Kansas City. Arrowhead is NEVER a fun place to play, especially in December(ask Pittsburgh). Nonetheless, the Broncos have some extra days to rest up, get healthy, and get ready for the final stretch run. It's fun again in Denver. The Broncos win!

GO BRONCOS!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall is stopped by Washington Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall during the third quarter of the NFL football game, Nov. 15, 2009 in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Here we are again, with another loss to contend with. This one is worse than the last two, because this one looked like a sure victory when we were marking off W's and L's on the schedule. Of course, if Kyle Orton didn't get hurt, it probably is a W, and the Broncos are still sitting on a 1-game lead over the Chargers. Since that's not the way it played out, we have to do the other thing.

We'll get into the details, from soup to chocolate cake, and make some sense of all this, because that's what we do here. We'll explore what happened, we'll find some things to feel positive about, and we'll have some fun. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. There's a certain interconnectedness to a football game, and its outcome, among all phases of the game, and all 45 active players. I've talked about this many times before, and John Bena called the loss a team effort in his postgame writeup. I would call this a team effort whose final score is mostly attributable to the poor second half play of the offense, and mostly, of Chris Simms.

What I mean by that is this. Over the first 6 games of the season, the Broncos led the league in scoring defense. They were especially strong defensively in the second half of games. That trend has been turned on its head the last 3 weeks. The last two weeks, especially, I believe that the main reason why the defense struggled in the second half was that they were on the field for too many plays, due to the struggles of the offense. Each side of the ball needs to help the other. The Broncos have been getting shut down on offense, and worn down on defense, and it's been difficult to watch.

Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were going on and on Sunday night about how the Colts led the NFL in scoring defense heading into this week. If you've watched the Colts, they don't even have a particularly good defense, if there is any chance you can run the ball against them. They have allowed so few points because they deliberately shorten the game when they're on offense, and because once they get a lead, the strength of their defense comes to the fore. They rush the passer well with four men, and drop 7 men into cover-2. If you stay out of situations that are favorable to Indianapolis, you can gash their defense.

This is what has been happening to the Broncos as well. Remember - in the first 6 games, the offense did its best work in the second half of games. They possessed the ball, they took their time, and they methodically controlled the games. When the defense was on the field, they were fresh, they substituted frequently, and they made plays to get off the field quickly.

Kyle Orton played great in the first half Sunday, just as he'd played very well in the first half of the Pittsburgh game, (outside the one interception). For all the hollering that went on about his lack of deep throwing, he threw a couple very nice deep balls for TDs to Brandon Marshall, and he just barely missed another to Eddie Royal. That opened the field vertically. He also did a very nice job on a few bootleg throws to Tony Scheffler, and a crossing pattern to Marshall. Those plays stretched the field horizontally.

The Broncos had Washington where they wanted them. Remember, they moved the ball on the possession where Correll Buckhalter fumbled, and they had the 17-play drive at the end of the first half, to take the 3-point lead. The Orton injury changed the entire complexion of the game. Simms simply couldn't complete a pass, and didn't seem to know where to go with the ball, and a lot of good work by Knowshon Moreno was wasted.

Most teams will struggle when they lose their starting QB. That's a function of the fact that there aren't 32 good QBs in the NFL, let alone 64 of them. I came into this game thinking that the Broncos are in good shape with Simms, if they needed to use him. I hope that he shows better if he has to play against San Diego, after a week of first-team reps. I still do tend to think that Simms can play.

You hate to have a game get away from you because your backup QB couldn't cut it. The only thing worse would be if two games got away for that reason. I expect that Josh McDaniels will have Simms ready to go next week, and that the gameplan will play to his strengths, if they need to use him.

You have to be careful not to let one game unduly affect an evaluation of a team. All the time, teams lay eggs in games, and lose (or nearly lose) to teams they should blow out. Look no further than New Orleans on Sunday, who seemingly tried to lose to St. Louis. Not to say that Dallas should have blown out Green Bay, but they shouldn't have gotten dominated like they did, either.

There's a lot of Chicken Little stuff going on here, and the one thing that will stop it is a victory against San Diego next week. Yes, I know that the Chargers are on a winning streak and the Broncos are on a losing streak. Remember when the Broncos had won 6 in a row, and the Ravens had lost 3 in a row? The Broncos can beat San Diego, which we know, because they already have this season. If they win that game, they'll re-take command of the division, with a one-game lead, and a sweeping of the head-to-head matchup.

2. In the big-time matchup of the week, the Colts got a win against the Patriots, and on Monday, Bill Belichick is being blamed by everybody who doesn't like him personally (AKA just about everyone). The fact is, Belichick has never curried favor with the media, and reporters tend to be critical of you every chance they get, if you don't pay them their due deference.

Joe Biden could tell you all about how that works. He never trusted the media after their treatment of the death of his first wife and daughter in 1972, and it always hurt him later, particularly in his two Presidential bids. John McCain and Barack Obama both have very deft touches with the media, and longstanding strategies of providing them a lot of access, and it was no accident that both were the nominees of their parties in 2008. If you're going to be a public figure, there's a clear benefit to cultivating relationships with reporters. The thing is, not everybody has the stomach for it, and Belichick is one of those guys who doesn't. Brett Favre benefits immensely from his relationship-building efforts, to the point of it being sickening most of the time. I heard somewhere recently that Favre spends hours with the TV guys on Saturday afternoons, as long as they want to hang out, and they really can't help but love on him.

Back to the lecture at hand, I would have done exactly the same thing as Belichick in that game situation, in going for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. Why did he do it? Because he was pretty close to certain that he would lose the game if he punted, that's why.

Let's say you go by the book, and punt. Over all 2,293 punts in the NFL in 2008, the average net change in field position was 39.53 yards. The right call, if you ask Peter King, or others, was to punt, and give Manning the ball at his own 32, with about 2 minutes, and all 3 timeouts left. I say that that is choosing to lose the game in a way that will leave the coach blameless, as far as the idiot media is concerned. Well, he trusted his defense, and he played the percentages; it's not the coach's fault. Except he didn't play the percentages.

First of all, let's get this nonsense about trusting your defense dispensed with. You should always trust your defense. Former defensive players like Tedy Bruschi, Matt Bowen, and old friend Tom Jackson love this line of thinking, but it's utter horse (manure). You should only trust your defense if you think they are likely to make the stop, and win you the game. If you think they aren't, then it's a fool's errand to trust them. You say to them, hey, realistically, you guys probably weren't going to stop Peyton Manning, which really doesn't make you much different from any other team's defense. There is no room for blind machismo, or making a statement, or worrying about hurt feelings; this is about winning football games, nothing more.

I didn't spend a great deal of time on it, but I took a look at every game recap for the Colts since 2005. (I think 4 ½ seasons is a reasonable sample size.) Since then, including the postseason, Manning has had the ball late in the game, trailing, on 19 occasions which I counted. He came through to either tie or take the lead 15 times, which is a 79% success rate. (In 2007, he was 1-for-4, which was pretty aberrant for this sample. Two of those misses were against the strong 2007 Chargers, whom the Colts struggled to pass-protect against.)

Here's the deal. Statistically, you have a 60% chance of picking up 4th and 2, but that probability is almost certainly greater, due to the fact that you have an outstanding offense, and the Colts have an average-at-best defense. If I were Belichick, I would have put my conversion probability at 70% for that play. That same source says that an average team returning a punt, given those field position- and time parameters, scores 53% of the time. We already know Manning succeeds 79% of the time, because he's one of the greatest QBs ever.

You can choose to probably win, or you can choose to probably lose, in one moment. What do you choose?

Belichick chose to probably win, and came up on the side where the probable outcome wasn't the actual outcome. Serious poker players know exactly what I am talking about here. Sometimes, you play the hand correctly, and you go all-in with the best cards, but you lose anyway. It's a fact of life. You accept it, and you don't complain about it, because you know you made the right call, regardless of the outcome. The next time you're faced with the same situation, you do the same thing, again, because it was the right call.

When I got home Monday night, all I saw and heard was TV talking heads second-guessing the decision. Stuart Scott pretty much butchered the stats, but he actually cited our friends at AdvancedNFLStats.com. The shockingly anti-intellectual Steve Young promptly claimed that the stats aren't legitimate (except they are). We got to hear from Tedy Bruschi how he'd feel as a defensive player on the Patriots, as if that's germane to anything at all. Trent Dilfer's blood boils when he hears the "other side" of the argument, AKA the correct side. Blah, blah, blah. (Sorry, brief possession by an ex-wife-like-entity again.)

Just imagine the reaction if Kevin Faulk had made the 2 yards. The stories today would have been about the stones on Belichick, and how he is such a great coach to make a risky call. It would be like Mike Shanahan going for 2 in the Hochuli Game last season. (Shanahan correctly thought that was his best chance to win. He felt he had a better-than-50 percent chance of scoring the conversion, and he knew that he had a 50% chance of winning a coin toss, and about a 98% chance that the Chargers would score in overtime, if he lost the toss.)

I'm no great defender of Belichick, the man, but when he's right, he's right. If it's an average QB, and an average offense, you might punt in that situation, but against Manning, that's always going to be the wrong call on 4th and 2. Once again, Belichick is smarter than the average bear, and smarter than every member of the football MSM.

3. Information From My Eyes - Broncos at Redskins

a. All four deep throws Orton made were good throws. Eddie Royal misjudged the one incompletion, and Brandon Marshall got out-fought by DeAngelo Hall on the second, but both were definitely well-thrown balls.

b. That fake field goal was a debacle, but I don't personally blame Mike Priefer. My goat on that play is Darrell Reid, who was telling Marcus Thomas to cover Mike Sellers, while he decided to contain the left edge of the offense, as the play flowed right. Alphonso Smith caught some initial blame, but I disagree there. He was in deep center field, and flowed with the play, like anybody would coach him to. Who knew Hunter Smith could throw back across the field?

c. Ryan Clady got beat badly once on Sunday. That doesn't happen often at all, obviously. That's the first sack he allowed that I would say was fully on him.

d. From the department of good news, Matt Prater doesn't seem to be having a second-half slump this season.

e. I was very impressed with Knowshon Moreno's vision and quickness on Sunday.

f. I've already made my evaluation of Mitch Berger, so everybody knows where I am at on that one. I saw somewhere where Frank Schwab, some beat reporter, speculated that Mitch Berger's 65-yard punt might save his job. If a kick that went about 42 yards in the air, and rolled 23 on the ground can do that, something absurd is going on.

g. I had a busy workday Monday, which set my schedule back, and is unfortunately going to preclude me from taking the time to do Between The Lines this week.

On watching the game a second time, though, it occurred to me that the bulk of Washington's success in running the ball was on zone-blocked plays. As I think about it, the Broncos haven't faced much of that this season at all; really just Oakland, who does it crappily. That's really something to work on, because the lateral movement seemed to unsettle the Broncos defensive line.

h. D.J. Williams got blocked a lot, and took a lot of bad angles. Again. This is getting to be an annoying habit.

i. Andra Davis continued to be a bright spot. He is a terrific blitzer and has a great sense of timing for delaying his rush. His missed tackle on that Devin Thomas catch and run in the 4th quarter was bad, but he otherwise graded out very well.

j. On a painful second pass watching the game, Chris Simms lacked timing with the receivers, as much as anything. Every throw was a little late. It seems like Orton may be able to play next Sunday, but if it's Simms, I hope a week's worth of reps will help him build some timing.

4. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. I was really curious to see the Buffalo-Tennessee game, and I recorded the Short Cut overnight, and watched the game Monday evening. Why would I care about this game? Well, the two teams played in the Hall of Fame Game, way back when it was still warm in Cleveland, and my girlfriend at the time called at halftime to break up with me.

In that game, the Bills couldn't block Tennessee, and the Titans looked like a Super Bowl team. So, I wanted to watch Sunday's game, because I wanted a good sense of where these two teams are. Tennessee probably isn't going to make the playoffs, after starting 0-6, but they've righted their ship, and they'd be trouble if they did make it. Their defensive line is still nasty, and I continue to be impressed with the job William Hayes is doing in replacing Jevon Kearse.

b. On the other side, the Bills still are below average on their offensive line. Their two highly-drafted rookies, Eric Wood, and Andy Levitre, particularly struggled, as they both had in the preseason game. Levitre even ended up playing some LT, due to an injury, and he really struggled outside. Wood got pushed backwards consistently in the passing game, and he's been generally pretty good as a rookie. The Bills need to shore up their offensive line in the offseason, and I am sure their new head coach will make that a priority, if they hire a competent one.

c. I am ready to make a pronouncement. If Vince Young couldn't run, he'd be the second coming of Trent Dilfer. He really isn't much of a thrower of the ball, and he leaves too much air under his throws. You can get by with him in a run-heavy offense, which is what the Titans really are.

Because he can run, he adds a useful element, and the team is really dangerous on option plays, and QB runs. His running ability can dictate that teams play man-to-man defense, and keep a guy out of coverage to spy him. Really, the Titans are back to being the 10-6ish team they were in 2007. I think they'll ultimately decide to stick with Young for next season, and look to build up the interior of their offensive line, and their back 7 on defense.

d. It seems like forever ago, but I did watch the Chicago-San Francisco game intently last Thursday. I think my first thought that I'd like to share is that the Bears defense played like they had some pride. I think Tommie Harris playing well made a huge difference. He is really the key to their whole scheme. I ripped him, and them, last week, and I told the guy from WCG who took exception that I'd say when they played well on defense. They did.

e. I don't really feel like I should say anything about Jay Cutler, because this column aims to stay away from saying obvious things. I'll just say it must be nice to have so many apologists when you mess up. He's like the second coming of Ronald Reagan with how teflon he is.

(Tangential ST&NO story - Reagan is a member of my fraternity. When he died in June of 2004, I was a senior at CSU, and President of my chapter, and I was asked to go on local television, to talk about Reagan as a fraternity man. Our guys did a fundraiser, and jumped on a trampoline for 54 straight days in the 80s, to break a Guinness record, while Frater Ronnie was POTUS. He sent us a congratulatory letter, so I focused on that with the news chick, Angie Lau. I had nothing but nice things to say, as Ronnie was definitely a good fraternity man.)

f. Peter King is really proud of himself for naming San Francisco's Aubrayo Franklin a midseason All-Pro as a NT. When Franklin got that scoring-area INT early on last Thursday, I kind of groaned, because I knew there was going to be some crowing about it.

I never have felt like Franklin jumped out, so I watched him closely, and my review is mixed. He didn't play a lot of snaps, so I wonder about his conditioning. He did play pretty stout against the run at times, and I felt like he was a good player overall when he was on the field. I could easily name 10-12 interior defensive players who are better, though. I guess it's fun to have a guy who is your guy, though.

g. Is Marc Bulger a veteran QB? I have always thought he was, but his command of clock management seemed really bad on Sunday. The Rams had a pretty good shot to beat the Saints, and Bulger and his receivers blew it. Man, I can't tell you how much I would hate to be associated with that team, in any capacity. It's got to be so disheartening to have no talent, be almost completely uncompetitive, then have a chance to beat an undefeated team, and blow it. Can you imagine what it's like to be a fan of such a team?

h. Reggie Bush had a really big game for the Saints on Sunday, stepping up from his usual "highly-paid-decoy" role. It's interesting to speculate on how the Saints value him. Obviously, they don't think he's a full-time RB, but he's paid like he's Adrian Peterson. I'd be happy to have him as a swing player, between RB and WR, but he's a backup at both positions, and I'd only pay him backup money. We'll soon see what the Saints think, because if I recall correctly, his contract is pretty well back-loaded.

i. Josh Freeman continues to look like he's the real deal for the Buccaneers, and Raheem Morris continues to look like he's gotten his bearings as a Head Coach. Both did a nice job in Sunday's game, despite Miami's comeback victory.

j. Speaking of Miami, I want to address the "Wildcat." The Dolphins are the only team which has had a lot of success with it, and every time they have a game with limited success, somebody speculates that the "trend" has run its course.

The thing is, Miami doesn't treat it like a trend. They treat it as a key part of the way they play offense, which puts their best players on the field together. They are committed to it, and they will continue to run it. They trade the disadvantage of being formationally unlikely to throw for the advantage of having 2-3 players who are good ball-carriers, who might get the ball in the running game. Other teams are finding that the direct-snap game maybe doesn't work for them. For Miami, it will continue to be an important part of their gameplan.

k. Joey Porter has had a pretty sub-par year, and he was a healthy scratch on Sunday. That raised some eyebrows, and Tony Sparano wouldn't comment on it. It actually parallels Adalius Thomas basically being shut down by the Patriots. Both teams are showing that having a big name and a big salary doesn't guarantee playing time, if you aren't producing on the field. Expect both players to be released after the season.

l. Another game I decided to watch on Monday was Jacksonville at the Jets. The Jets miss Kris Jenkins terribly, and their defense is nowhere near as good as it was when he was healthy. They are having to scheme to stop the inside run, and to keep Bart Scott and David Harris clean, and these things used to just happen. I expect New England to blow them out this coming week.

m. I can see why people like Mark Sanchez, but I continue not to be a fan. He's well-coached, and he has excellent fundamentals. I just think he's very limited as a natural thrower of the ball. I consider him to be a poor man's Matt Ryan, which is another way of calling him a middle class man's Chad Pennington.

Sanchez plays in a windy place, which I have noted before, and that's going to always be an issue. Another issue is that the offensive scheme he is playing in is very vertical, and Sanchez is a poster boy for the West Coast Offense. Rex Ryan inherited Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator, but I don't think Schottenheimer and Sanchez are a very good match. I have to wonder if the Jets don't make a change in the offseason, to bring in somebody to make the passing game's design more horizontal. Mike Shanahan could do wonders with Sanchez, although he won't be going to New York.

Really, as I think about it, if Sanchez and Jason Campbell could trade offensive coaching staffs, they'd probably both be much better off. Two owners traded teams once; why couldn't this happen?

n. There was a crazy sequence in the third quarter, where Sanchez threw an interception to Quentin Groves, then Maurice Jones-Drew fumbled at the goal line, and then Braylon Edwards fumbled at the end of a 41-yard catch. It was a whole lot of ugly going on at once, like the perennially sloppy tendencies of the Jaguars were rubbing off on the Jets.

o. Torry Holt was a great player for many years, despite playing for some obscure St. Louis teams. Really, you could make a case that he was a better player than a few Hall of Famers. (How about Art Monk, Steve Largent, and Lynn Swann to name a few?) I would go so far as to say that he was better than any WR the Broncos have had in my lifetime, a little ahead of Rod Smith.

My point in giving Holt credit, is that I have to say that I think he is getting pretty close to the end of the line. He has really struggled to get any separation, in the times I have watched him this season. He had two strong games, against St. Louis (bad defense) and Seattle (garbage time in a 41-0 game), but I haven't been impressed with his recent work.

p. I loved the call by the Jaguars to have Jones-Drew take a knee and run the clock out. His apology to his fantasy owners made me cringe, though. I may be 7-3 in the official MHR league, but fantasy football is at odds with my beliefs about football, and I have a hard time reconciling the two things.

q. I couldn't talk myself into watching the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game. Sorry, I know it was a key game, but a game with zero offensive touchdowns offends my sensibilities. (Just in case you were wondering why I had nothing on this game.) I'm sure it was ugly, and I feel fine, personally, having seen the highlights. When I walk into a smelly restroom, I get out as quick as possible. No need to hang around for half an hour, to have a good idea what happened there.

r. Jake Delhomme had a dangerously solid game on Sunday. It was the type of fool's gold performance that makes the regime think they are okay with him as their QB, and really, Jake has been having those games his whole career. The Panthers are suddenly 4-5, and back in the picture for a Wild Card spot, but I really believe that they need a better QB if they ever want to really compete for a championship.

s. Matt Ryan struggled mightily again on Sunday, and his two interceptions were a lot of the reason the Falcons lost the game. His first INT, in the second quarter, led to a TD which set the Falcons behind 21-10. The one he threw in the 4th quarter was converted 3 plays later into the TD which put the game away for Carolina.

Don't get me wrong; Ryan is mostly a good QB, but he has definite limitations, which I have highlighted in the past. He really struggles to beat tight coverage, and he's seen a lot of it lately.

t. Speaking of Hall of Fame-caliber guys who look washed up, old friend Jason Elam seems to have really lost his fastball. He's now 9 for 14, and he's only 3 for 6 between 30 and 39 yards. I would be surprised if he kicks after this season.

u. I always thought Beanie Wells was soft when he was at Ohio State, and he didn't do a lot early this season to change my mind. Lately, though, he's shown a lot better, and he's a big reason why the Cardinals are 6-3, and squarely in control of the NFC West. I've also been more impressed with the play of RT Levi Brown than ever before. He's been blowing some people off the ball in the running game.

v. The Chargers have been really tough in the scoring area lately. Of course, the Eagles helped them out by not even trying to run the ball down there. You have to make the defense think that they have to defend everything, or else they are at a distinct advantage. Only getting field goals of 18, 25, and 25 yards on visits deep into San Diego territory was the difference in that game. A defense can get shredded, as the Chargers did, and if they toughen up in the scoring area, they make up for it. A lot of Donovan McNabb's 450 yards were low-quality.

w. The Chargers sure are paying Darren Sproles a lot of money not to participate very much on offense. He's a lot like Reggie Bush, in being a highly-paid decoy who is never going to be much more than what he is.

x. Hey, Adam Schefter. From a money guy, "large" means thousand. When you say "two hundred fifty thousand large," that means $250 Million. He said that on Monday Night Countdown (Served by Applebee's... really). People misspeak all the time; I just wanted to make sure he knows what "large" means. This is coming from a helpful place.

y. I have to hand it to the Browns. They played really well on defense Monday night. Their offense is just so terrible, that it's no use. Those defensive players are playing for jobs next year, whether it be in Cleveland under a new regime, or elsewhere. Guys who show some pride and effort on bad teams will have some good film for their agents to shop them with. Guys who pack it in will be out of the league, like so many guys who played defense in Denver last season.

z. I actually like to listen to MNF nowadays, as I finish ST&NO every week. The main reason is that I actually think that both Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden are value-adding to listen to. The guys at Mickey Mouse-land spent so many years looking for a good third man, with such horrible results, and they've finally found a good 3-man booth. I actually don't like Mike Tirico, who is good at basketball, but bad at football play-by-play (much like Joe Buck is great with baseball, and abysmal with football).

5. I know the Bengals have always been willing to take on troubled players, but it's hard to imagine what they are thinking in reportedly bringing in Larry Johnson. As LJ was to be the key RB on the Shallow Thoughts team in the official MHR Fantasy League, I can tell you that his performance has been garbage this season. Some of his bad performance can certainly be attributed to bad offensive line play in Kansas City, but Johnson is clearly lacking quickness to the hole, and the leg drive he had in his prime. I just don't see what value the Bengals are going to get out of him.

I've reached midnight, and unfortunately, I need to call it a night. My company is in the process of being acquired, which has caused me to be much busier than normal at this time of the month, and I have an early morning meeting Tuesday. I hope you enjoy this edition of ST&NO, and have a great week. I'll see you all again next Tuesday, hopefully with time to give you my normal output.