SB Nation - Zach Miller

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Redskins 34, Raiders 13

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:32:23 -0000

Bruce Gradkowski tried to get his third win as a starter in the silver and black. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

Fresh off of a win on the road as 15-point underdogs, the Oakland Raiders (4-8) took on the Washington Redskins (3-9) as underdogs once again. Trying to stay hot behind quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, the Raiders entered today's game 2-1 when he starts with wins over the Bengals and Steelers. Unfortunately, the game was blacked out locally. Banged up, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis were among the many Redskins out for today's game. Dive in to see how the Raiders fared with the Redskins on a gloomy day at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. A bit of rain was in the air for this one.

Darren McFadden had a nice first quarter catching the ball. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

First Quarter: A pathetic return by Gary Russell of 11 huge yards gave us the ball first. He did, however, make the only key play of the series before a sack by LaRon Landry forced the Raiders to punt the ball to the Redskins. Darren McFadden carried it twice on the opening series and basically went nowhere. Anyway, a 68-yard boot by Shane Lechler set up Washington at their own 20 for their opening drive. A five-yard run by Quinton Ganther was the only real positive play on the series. A sack by Trevor Scott, who has been on fire, and an incomplete pass by Jason Campbell forced a Hunter Smith punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins, who had some room on the return, managed to return it to his own 39 yard line. After Bruce Gradkowski hit Higgins for a nine-yard pass, Justin Fargas fumbled; however, Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot had one foot out of bounds on the recovery. It remained Oakland ball. Gradkowski then hit Zach Miller on a big play, but an offensive pass interference on Chaz Schilens brought it back almost to the original line of scrimmage of the drive. A timeout followed it up. The Raiders couldn't really amount anything after that. Another sack doomed a second consecutive drive and it was Lechler time again. A fair catch was called by Antwaan Randle El and the Redskins had it at their own 22. The defense made some nice plays, specifically Kirk Morrison and Chris Johnson, and a three-and-out forced the Redskins to punt. A big play opened up the next drive for the Raiders, as Gradkowski hit Darren McFadden on a slant for 43 huge yards. Unable to muster anything after that, a field goal by Sebastian Janikowski gave the Raiders a 3-0 lead with just over four minutes still to play in the opening quarter. Faced with a third down, Jason Campbell swung it out to Quinton Ganther on the left side. Busting through, Ganther picked up huge yardage to put Washington into not only Oakland territory, but also field goal range. Once again, the Redskins converted on third down. On the very next play, Fred Davis was hit for a touchdown. After whistled for a 15-yard penalty, the Redskins had to kick from their own 15. A 41-yard return by Gary Russell gave Oakland the ball at midfield. An acrobatic grab by McFadden at the 24 yard line capped a seemingly long first quarter.

Fred Davis found the end zone twice and celebrates with a teammate. [via cdn3.sbnation.com]

Second Quarter: Starting the second quarter, a stupid play call (a give to Gary Russell) cost the Raiders a yard. Zach Miller and Chaz Schilens each made grabs and the Raiders had a goal-to-go from the nine. After a miscue on the give to Justin Fargas, the Raiders hit Zach Miller on third down. He was short, however, but Tom Cable remained aggressive from last week. A fourth down carry and dive by Fargas gave the Raiders a touchdown as they had regained a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. The rain got progressively worse at this point in the game, as noted by commentator Dick Stockton. Fred Davis, open in the secondary, caught a pass and it was for a good gain into Oakland territory. Back-to-back plays by the Raider defense stuffed Quinton Ganther in the backfield. Richard Seymour and Trevor Scott stopped the run and Kirk Morrison and Tommy Kelly blew the next play up on a screen in the backfield. Needing 12 yards on third down, an offsides penalty by Greg Ellis gave the Redskins five free yards. So, another offsides penalty hurt; however, it didn't hurt as much. Hiram Eugene made a great tackle on Randle El and Washington had to settle for a field goal. Graham Gano, just signed out of the UFL, connected on a 46-yard field goal. We were tied, 10-10, in a pretty evenly matched game with 7:27 left to go in the first half. After a three-and-out, a great 58-yard punt from Lechler set the Redskins up at their own 21. The Redskins didn't get far at all, and some good pressure by defensive linemen Matt Shaughnessy and Gerard Warren forced a punt. Jason Campbell was shaken up after the hit. A couple of stupid calls -- runs up the middle by McFadden and Russell -- brought up a long third down. Nearly intercepted by Reed Doughty on a pass intended for Oakland's Zach Miller, Doughy was flagged for illegal contact. It give the Raiders an automatic first down. On the very next play, an open Miller flat out dropped the ball. It was a good pass by Gradkowski, too, but Miller just let it slip through his hands. Welcome to the show Louis Murphy, as he pulled the Raiders to within two yards of the first down marker at the two-minute warning; however, on the next play, a catch of his was correctly called back on the booth review. The Raiders were forced to punt from midfield. A stupid penalty on the punt called against Hiram Eugene -- not stupid on Eugene's part but rather the referee's -- as Eugene was called for interference when he didn't even interfere. The bench was called for an unsportsmanlike penalty and so the Redskins had it at their own 40. Santana Moss made a 14-yard catch and the Redskins were threatening before the half. Next, a big play to Devin Thomas had Washington really in business. Two plays later, Fred Davis scored his second touchdown of the game to give Washington a 17-10 lead. (Damn, he's on my bench in a fantasy football league.) A holding penalty on the kickoff return set the Raiders up in bad position, and there was just seconds to go before halftime. A couple of runs by Gradkowski picked up some yards, but Oakland needed more with just 16 seconds to go without any timeouts remaining. Almost getting sack, Gradkowski flipped it out to Fargas in the flat and he ran out of bounds with less than 10 seconds to go. An incomplete pass on the next play basically made it impossible for a field goal try; however, Tom Cable decided to go for a field goal without running another play. A 66-yard field goal fell short, and Redskins safety Reed Doughty grabbed it and took off from his own end zone. Mario Henderson grabbed him and slammed Doughty to the ground to end the half. The Redskins had a 17-10 lead. For those of you keeping track, a total of 16 penalty flags were thrown. Yes, this was an ugly game.

After filling in for Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell spent a ton of time on the ground. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

Third Quarter: The Redskins started out with the ball at their own 30, and more importantly the lead. A pass interference committed by Tyvon Branch gave the Redskins a fresh set of downs. Michael Huff, who suffered a stinger in the first half, is still out with that injury and being replaced by Hiram Eugene. A couple of incomplete passes had Washington in a third and long situation. A rare blitz by the defense had Campbell sacked back at his own 26 by rookie safety Mike Mitchell. A punt followed that big play. The return by Higgins set the Raiders up in good field position, at their own 44. After going down with a knee injury just before the first half concluded, Gradkowski was out and unable to return. Yes, that means JaMarcus Russell was in -- and playing quarterback, too. Raiders fans everywhere are holding their respective breaths. Needing three years on third down, Russell called a timeout as Oakland was nearing field goal range. Still, they needed a first down if they even wanted to think about a pretty good try being at Washington's 38. A big play conversion to Higgins was followed up by a 10-yard loss on the sack. Ugh, Russell didn't get rid of the ball. Rookie Brian Orakpo brought him down. More stupid play-calling from Tom Cable, the reverse went nowhere. You've already called that play once, Tom. You can't fool the defense like that. An incomplete pass to Darren McFadden set up a 53-yard field goal try for Janikowski. Missing earlier from 66 yards out, this one was much more manageable and Sebastian knocked it through for his second of the day. The Washington lead was trimmed to 17-13 with just under nine minutes to play in the third quarter. The Raiders brought the heat some more on Campbell on the Redskins' next drive, as Stanford Routt nearly got to Campbell. By the way, Routt replaced by the injured Nnamdi Asomugha. Then, on second down, Matt Shaughnessy brought down Campbell for Oakland's third sack of the game. With the third down play coming up short, a good return by Higgins set up Russell and company in good field position just shy of midfield. A second down play resulting in a first down to Zach Miller had the Raiders in Washington territory; however, on the next play, McFadden slips on a run. He still managed to pick up six yards. A pitch that went backwards forced the Raiders to make a play on third down in order to keep the drive alive. Russell found Murphy and the Raiders moved the chains. It's a step forward and then a step backwards for Russell, apparently, as Andre Carter brings him down for a loss. A false start, which didn't occur under Gradkowski, moved the Raiders back five more yards. Another penalty and then another sack totally demolished the drive for the Raiders, and it became third down with 35 yards to go. Is anyone ready for Charlie Frye yet? The punt by Lechler hopped into the end zone, and Washington began their drive at their own 20 with the third quarter almost over with. Almost off of the field, Rock Cartwright made a play on third down for the Redskins and Washington's drive continued. A couple of runs by Quinton Ganther ended the third quarter. The Redskins had a 17-13 lead over three quarters.

Santana Moss and the Redskins ran away in the fourth quarter. [via cdn0.sbnation.com]

Fourth Quarter: Kicking off the fourth quarter was Washington in Oakland territory looking to add onto their four-point lead. Not surprisingly, the quarter begins with two penalties on the Raiders. Routt was called for pass interference -- which was a bad call as Santana Moss had slipped -- and then Howard was flagged for holding. A couple of plays later, the Oakland defense tried to get off the field with Washington tryign to convert a third down needing three yards. Of course, the Redskins picked up the first down with ease on a pass from Campbell to Malcolm Kelly. A touchdown basically kills any chance the Raiders have of winning this game, especially with Gradkowski shelved. An effective screen to Moss set up a touchdown run by Ganther, a Richmond native scoring the first time in his career, and Washington had taken a 24-13 lead with over 11 minutes to play in regulation. It was clearly a great drive by the Redskins. Chewing six minutes up and going 80 yards on 13 plays, you couldn't have asked for more if you were Jim Zorn. The Raiders had the ball back needing two touchdowns and a two-point conversion. In a shocking turn of events, Russell threw a pass that was picked off by LaRon Landry. Why am I still watching the game at this point? I don't know. Campbell to Moss goes for 30 yards, and the Redskins are a touchdown away from blowout city. Some plays later, Ganther's second touchdown of the day put Washington ahead by 31-13 score. Oh, yes, it was all over by then. Russell marched back out there and was sacked. We were all so very surprised. Luckily for us, Carter totally missed the fumble and Henderson pounced on it to keep possession. Blah, blah, blah, the Raiders had to punt without a first down gained; however, Randle El screwed up the punt return and dropped it. Tony Stewart fell on it and Oakland had the ball at midfield. On the very next play, Russell was sacked yet again and this time it was Lorenzo Alexander. That was the seventh sack of the game with five of them coming against Russell compared to only two when Gradkowski was in the game. God, this game couldn't end any sooner. I'll save the dramatics: Russell was sacked on fourth down. Getting Marcus Mason involved some in the fourth quarter, Washington marched down and kicked a field goal to extend their lead to 34-13. Terribly bad went to even worse as Zach Miller went down with an injury. After another useless drive that went nowhere led by the great JaMarcus Russell, the Redskins got the ball back and ran out the clock. Improving to 4-9 are the Redskins and falling to that same record are the Raiders by a 34-13 score.

Little Billy has some explaining to do. [via cdn2.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D -- Obviously, things were going a lot smoother with Bruce Gradkowski back there instead of the totally inept and awful JaMarcus Russell. Still, we have to grade them both. Gradkowski was a little below average and Russell was awful, so I tried to find the middle ground.
Rush Offense: F -- The rushing offense was absolutely dreadful. On 24 carries, a 2.7 average just isn't going to cut it. Justin Fargas led the way with 21 yards and a touchdown, but that stuff is something that should be achieved in just one quarter and not one whole game.
Pass Defense: D+ -- Jason Campbell had almost a field day going 16-for-28 with 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. They brought some heat, so that was a good thing but just about the only good thing.
Rush Defense: C -- It was a very average performance by the rush defense with the Redskins averaging around four yards per carry with a couple of rushing touchdowns.
Special Teams: B- -- Janikowski's only miss came from 66 yards. Shane Lechler averaged almost 52 yards per punt. Johnnie Lee Higgins was okay returning punts while Gary Russell was nothing special returning kicks. Overall, it was pretty decent and I guess I couldn't complain about the way special teams played. The coverage wasn't all that bad itself.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: It's quite simple, really. Once JaMarcus Russell came in for the injured Bruce Gradkowski, it all went to hell. Trailing 17-10 at the half, this game was clearly within reach all the way. Charlie Frye should start next week should Gradkowski be unable to go. Next up, we have the Denver Broncos who are 8-5 and leading the Wild Card race in the AFC. This was really rough in the second half. Enjoy your Sunday evening, guys, and try to put this one behind us.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Indy Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:06 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Graham catches a short pass before running for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

There's nothing quite like back-to-back wins to put a shine into the work in the film room. The glow of the past two wins hasn't faded at all, but the upcoming contest against the Indianapolis Colts is starting to loom large. Before we get into our matchups and needs against the next foe, let's take some time to look back over what we've accomplished. Special teams, the nose tackle position and even raiderology are on today's menu. Let the feasting begin!

The Film Room I - KC Autopsy

A moment of silence for a team that has passed away, out of contention for the season and fighting for respect. It's a tough time to be a Chiefs fans, and I want to thank them for a week of intelligent football talk and good-spirited fun. Nice guys, over at Arrowhead Pride. But the nice guy's team, in this case, is finishing near last (if they don't awaken right now. You couldn't miss that on the tape.

I had mentioned that the game this past weekend, like most games, would come down to how Denver played in the trenches. The Broncos responded with a solid performance by the O-Line, prying open gaping holes more than large enough to pass a running back through. When Ryan Harris stepped out in the early second quarter and Tyler Polumbus replaced him, I wondered for a brief moment if we were seeing a very bad thing but there was no dropoff that I saw. Polumbus seems to have stepped up his game, as has Russ Hochstein. Both improvements are timely - and much needed.

Mistakes - Orton had an uncharacteristically bad red-zone play on the first drive, but he moved them well on the next drive. He was blindsided twice and lost the ball, but let's be real - if the defensive player hits the arm right, every QB loses those. Over his career Orton hasn't tended to that issue, so I'm not worried. I want to see those blindside hits stop, though. Orton was 'burping the baby again, an old and bad habit, but the O-Line doesn't get off scot-free, either. They bear some responsibility for the sacks and the one fumble. They really stepped up when they had to though, and that was the name of the game. They let KC get to the one and held them to a FG. INTs, negative plays, pressure and domination go a long way. They took us to an eighth win.

I've wondered about the progress of Richard Quinn of late mostly because I hadn't had the time to break down the ST work as well as I should. That's being fixed, and the guys on Upon Further Review have been kind enough to help me out. As I result, I've been seeing a lot of good things with Quinn and I'm pleased that he singlehandedly made a huge play on the faked punt. KC must have assumed that since others have caught the Broncos with those kind of plays, it would work again. Here's what Josh McDaniels had to say,

They went to a gadget-type formation and I know that there was a guy leaking out the other way and they had an opportunity to get that ball out there but TE Richard (Quinn) made a heck of a play. I don't know what happens if the ball gets thrown but it probably wouldn't have been too good for us. Whenever you break the formation and have a gadget-type play, we were prepared and we split out with them but you are never sure who they are trying to pick for or who they are trying to spring free. That was a big play in the game because we obviously took possession of the football in their territory.

It wasn't the only big play, either. The Broncos were unstoppable in the running game and despite some errors, still used the pass to score 2 TDs, which would have been enough by itself. The game was over when Cassel's QB rating hit 3.1. There isn't a mercy rule. Perhaps there should be. This was a good reminder of that fact.

The Broncos won despite some sloppy play that won't work in the upcoming weeks. In the final analysis, the Broncos committed too many errors and they can't win against the best if they do. But still, you get a sense of how the team can play, and there is a heck of a team in here. You have to balance the bad with the fact that we're seeing a lot of things getting fixed in the new systems the team has learned. When I go back to what I wanted to see from the team this year, that was at the top of the list. Nice work, guys.

Film Room II - The Special Teams

The emphasis on this week's review was the play of the Broncos' special teams this season. Everyone is in agreement that the STs can play better than they did in the first 10-12 weeks of the season. While there are now some obvious bright spots (David Bruton, Spencer Larsen, Darrell Reid, Darcel McBath), I felt that a major review might be in order. It was a great week to feel that way - wow, what a performance on special teams the Broncos put in place. Huge kudos to MHR favorite Spencer Larsen, who notched a huge 4 special teams tackles and to Darrell Reid, who trailed him with 3. Great job on ST! Eddie Royal looked comfortable and Mitch Berger was a monster - again. I don't know how he avoided the block on that one punt, but I was impressed. Berger has no history of frequently blocked punts; so despite his slower motion, he hasn't let it hurt the team.

How was our kicking game against KC? Take a look:

Extra Points Made-Attempts 5-5
Field Goals Made-Attempts 3-3
Red Zone Efficiency 4-6-67%
Goal-to-go efficiency 2-2-100%

That's the kind of efficient red-zone and ST play that wins games.

Some things are obvious. Royal hasn't had enough room to run on punt returns, mostly due to our tendency to let the offenses get into the 40/40 yard-line range, which lets the teams either punt into the coffin corner or just create a touchback, nullifying Eddie's chances of getting in a good runback. They got over that pattern during the past two games and had two wins. Are they connected? You decide. I'm going to vote yes.

Two names that I wanted to look more closely at this week were Richard Quinn and Russ Hochstein. I recalled Hochstein making a couple of serious errors on ST while we were losing and while I'd heard good things about Quinn's ST work, I hadn't caught him on film enough to develop an opinion one way or the other. that obviously changed in KC - his play on the fake punt was perfect and his blocking on kick returns was excellent as well. Nice to see!

The balance of veterans like Mario Haggan, Champ Bailey, Darrell Reid and Andre' Goodman with younger players such as Bruton, Larsen and McBath seems to have found an area of comfort. Lanes are being filled, discipline has improved, tackling is much better and, just as importantly, we haven't been pinning Royal back in coffin country. This is the first time I've seen us playing the way we need to on special teams in a long time. I can only hope it continues.

Safety in Numbers: It's also obvious that David Bruton was a heck of a 4th-round pickup and that Darcel McBath was a great investment. Over the next 5 years, with those two and Josh Barrett, we're in good shape at safety. There was pre-draft talk of moving McBath to CB if certain teams drafted him - McBath can cover very well and can tackle, too. Denver will keep him at safety, though, and for good reason. He won't replace Renaldo Hill anytime soon, but I love that our chances are that good at when we're covering folks.

The response to the recent rise in short-passing offenses (much like our own) has been a switch to fast, coverage safeties. I believe that McBath can be smoothly moved into the slot currently well-occupied by Renaldo Hill when Hill finally slows. Keep in mind that Hill, too, was a CB/S tweener who played CB during his first 4 years in the NFL. McBath seems to be very much in the same mold - he's also bright, like Hill, and was a team leader in college.

We can also go with two smart, effective covering safeties, and although I will miss Dawk's aggression and leadership when the time comes, Hill is an excellent leader and as mentioned, McBath was also a captain in his own right. I believe that David Bruton has the power to later fill many of B-Dawk's roles, although few will ever do so as well. Bruton was also a defensive captain, a pattern in McDaniels' pickups. Finally, Barrett's ability to cover the best TEs one-on-one and to interchange with Wesley Woodyard when needed is a nickel option that few teams can match. Although everyone, myself included, would love to see an Eric Berry on our team, we can establish safety as a lower-cost, high-return group at any point. The fact that all three have done good things on ST makes me even happier - that's a seventh of the game that we need to win, week in and week out. We're finally starting to win at it with a good mix of veterans and younger players. No surprise, then, that we're back to winning.

By the way, we've scored exactly 70 points in the past two games. Things have changed, and for the better. We still need to improve on our mistakes, but I like the direction things are going in.

raiderology

If I'm Al Davis, which is unlikely in the extreme, I'm having a contract meeting with Bruce Gradkowski's agent tomorrow. Gradkowski is on a one-year (2009) contract for $535,000, and in 2010 becomes a restricted free agent. That is one tough, talented guy and the raiders should get a clue: He's a good option right now and a good backup in the future. When's the last time they had a guy come on and win them games? It's ironic that he's the polar opposite of JaMarcus Russell - smaller and lighter, only 6'1" and 220 lbs, but he's smart, tenacious and can play this game. You don't need to waste a pick in the 1st round - you've got your QB in-house for this year and even next year if you want to make the effort to rebuild the team. The young man earned it. Consider his game against PITT:

Att/Comp Yds YPA TD INT QB Rating
20/33 308 9.3 3 0 121.8

Those are numbers that work for me. He has accuracy issues, no question, and his arm strength isn't what the team would like. I don't think that he's a long-term answer - he's just a heck of a lot better answer than Russell and they can keep him on as a backup when they find someone better. The Raiders love the vertical game too much to have a starting QB that doesn't have the arm for the long ball, but they still need one that has some common sense and drive. Mark Twain mentioned that the problem with common sense is that it ain't. That's been Problem 1 in raiderville for a long time and Russell is a perfect example of why. Right now, Gradkowski is a step up.

The raiders have some good running backs in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Darren McFadden fumbles too much, has always had issues with his upright style and injuries; he may mature well, but hasn't shown that consistently yet - so I don't count him. They have a fine young TE in Zach Miller, too. Their receiving corp will be mediocre or worse until they catch onto the fact that running fast is of no use if you can't catch the danged ball. They need a couple of possession receivers badly, preferably veterans who don't need to be bottle-fed. They also need to patch a couple of holes in the O-Line, as in much of it. If they can put together a couple of drafts that actually match their team needs, fine, then they can drop big dollars on a QB. Until then? Gradkowski is fine.

This is one example of how a person's feelings on the theory of team building color their approach to decision-making. I personally believe that you need an offensive line more than any other single factor in football. To me, there's no point in arguing about how to win a Super Bowl until you at least have a team that can contend for their division and I think that you start that with the O-Line and move on from there. The raiders seem to do everything backwards, so this is no shock, but they can buy a few wins for relatively few bucks with Gradkowski and they need to develop a longterm plan for a change.

Speaking of the dead, I found it interesting last week when Nnamdi Asomugha went on record as being against the moribund system that Al Davis has in place of not making defensive adjustments for other teams' systems. Davis stills lives and refuses to die on the theory that you play your own system come drought or flood and you ignore what other teams are doing. We all know how that's been working for Oakland. Since this is a team that we play again soon, I'm content to watch them ignore reality with aplomb, but it's interesting when your best player calls out your system in the media. In other cases, I think that kind of thing smacks of ego, but in this case, it smacks of a legitimate cry for help. One that will be ignored, though, like all the rest.

Concussions (briefly) Continued

The NFL is considering a rule change that involves the running back position. The idea behind it is to prevent the RB from using his head as a battering ram, a style of running that has become increasingly common. Running backs like this maneuver because it permits them to deliver a blow rather than just take them.

I'm torn on this. I'm greatly encouraged by the new guidelines for dealing with concussions, and I support rule changes that will reduce the number of head injuries and simply 'blows to the head', which we now understand to be equally bad or even worse, over the course of time. I recognize the the running backs have a legitimate point regarding this approach - they take so much punishment that it seems harsh to take away one of their few options in return.

However -- running in that fashion is going to increase the number of blows to the head that the athlete experiences. It's really that simple. Research has shown a link between frequent blows to the head, even if they do not induce a concussion per se, and increased brain damage. That's a huge problem - the cumulative effects of those blows are increasing the number of retired players who are experiencing loss of their cognitive faculties. What number of yards makes up for that?

From my admittedly-biased position as a retired doc, I'm in favor of this rule change. Using your head to hit people isn't, well, using your head. I'd like to see alternative techniques taught and coached. I'd like to see an end to the kind of problems that hits like Adrian Peterson's created when he used his head to smash into Detroit safety Louis Delmas. By bending down to where his head was only a foot or so from the ground, Peterson smashed his helmet into Delmas' helmet as Delmas came in to tackle him. It was deliberate, and damaging to both men, if more so to Delmas; the hit left Delmas on the ground. I also would like to see it prohibited to use the head to deliver any kind of hit by any player and would support considering a change in the way that tackling is taught. These changes will not greatly change the way the game is played - just how the players are taught.

I understand that many fans will think that if you change the way the game is taught, it's "not really football" anymore. I'm sympathetic, but let's be real here - no amount of money is worth becoming a walking vegetable in your later years. Demanding that players be willing to trade their own abilities in consciousness for the experience of the NFL is, frankly, barbaric. Yes, it's a tough sport. Yes, it's impossible to prevent all injuries and you shouldn't try. However - dropping some of the gladiatorial fervor in the name of living a normal life beyond football isn't an unreasonable approach. We shouldn't ask anyone to be willing to increase their chances of living with brain trauma just for the chance to be a professional football player -- or for any other sport's sake. I hope that we, as a culture, are willing to move beyond that kind of lower-consciousness belief.

QBs and Ratings

While we're considering the media, consider this from Kerry Byrne at si.com:

16.13 yards per attempt -- This is the number that truly leaps off the stat sheet to those who understand the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Passing yards per attempt is probably the single greatest individual statistical indicator of success in football, and maybe in all of sports. Teams that win the passing yards per attempt battle win nearly 75 percent of the time and the great quarterbacks almost always have high averages per attempt, from Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas to the greatest winner of all, Otto Graham, whose career average of 8.63 YPA is the best in history. to

So, when you see a number like 16.1 YPA, it pays to investigate a little further. Turns out Brees is just the fifth player since 1960 to average more than 16 yards per pass attempt in a game (min. 20 attempts).

It brings up an interesting point: Many teams - most, in fact - have moved to a NE-style offense with an emphasis on the short pass. That doesn't exclude throwing deep, but it does mean that teams will see more of the short passing game, which will tend to skew that number in the statistics. Since many of the offenses that emphasize the short pass use it much as teams used to use the ground game -- picking up 2-8 years at a time, keeping the clock moving and controlling the ball -- you will see the numbers on yards per attempt lessening. It's still true, however, that yards per attempt can be increased by yards after the catch, and that's an area where the Saints have excelled.

The Broncos are starting to throw deeper passes more often, and experience and comfort level between Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton is a big factor there. It paid off again, and was that Brandon throwing his TD ball to McDaniels? Nice...so much for Brandon leaving. He likes to talk, but they will open the checkbook to keep him (and Doom).

How many more longer passes? It isn't a vertical game onslaught, but this is from the list of the Broncos top-10 long plays each week:

49 4 3-6-DEN 24 (14:08) K.Orton pass short left to B.Marshall pushed ob at KC 27 for 49 yards (J.McGraw).
19 4 1-10-KC 41 (11:26) K.Orton pass deep left to T.Scheffler to KC 22 for 19 yards (C.Mays).
18 1 1-10-DEN 33 (14:55) K.Orton pass short left to E.Royal to KC 49 for 18 yards (B.Flowers).
17 2 2-6-50 (10:18) C.Buckhalter left tackle to KC 33 for 17 yards (M.Vrabel).

Orton added three plays for 14 yards, two to Marshall, one to Royal. The mid-range game is starting to work better and the running game was money all day long. Then there's the kind of rushing dominance that I hadn't seen in too long. The combination gives us a puncher's chance against anyone, if we can control the line of scrimmage.

Final Note: NTs come Full Circle

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com posted this last week:

3-4 nose tackles are scarce

Any team that plays a 3-4 defense knows that success starts up front with a massive nose tackle that plays over the center's head and forces double teams. In the NFL, 3-4 nose tackles are an endangered species. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams and somehow keep winning. The Jets have dropped three of four games since Kris Jenkins went down. Jason Ferguson of the Dolphins just found he is heading to IR, which leaves Paul Soliai to replace him. All three teams have playoff aspirations, but the lack of a quality nose tackle hurts their chances. So far, the Chargers have adjusted best.

He brings up an interesting point. Increasingly, we are seeing smaller NTs coming in and being effective through leverage and athletic ability -- as well as getting penetration. While it is essential that the NT be able to take up 2 or more blockers, it's not really important that he weight 365 lbs. when doing so. The ability to move other people, great technique and an explosive first step are even more important than size.

Since we are now at 12 teams using the 3-4 in some form full-time and many others that use some hybrid variation at least part of the time, we're not going to necessarily see every team moving to the traditional kind of huge player at NT. Players with skill, stamina and unusual strength and/or leverage as well as a scale-tipping 340 lbs will probably continue to be relatively rare. But as Marcus Thomas (314) has shown in Denver when playing behind Ron Fields (314), as the combination of Travis Johnson (311) and Ogemdi Nwagbuo (303) have shown in San Diego since their massive NT, Jamal Williams (348), went on IR and as Jay Ratliff (304) has shown in Dallas, there is more to the NT position than sheer size. Jason Ferguson comes in at 305, no larger than many 40-front defensive tackles. There's a pattern here.

One of the advantages that Denver has shown this season is that Ron Fields is obviously as good as the commentators who called him a steal believed. Even better, Marcus has shown considerable ability in coming in and handling the NT duties when Fields sits down. Thomas is a serious penetrator who obviously plays by relishing of the chance to compete at this level. If Chris Baker (329) develops this off-season, we may get to see Baker or Thomas showing us their skills at DE - personally, I'd love to see Marcus handling that position, but right now he's the second-best option at NT and a very close second at that. He is also said to really enjoy the position, so perhaps he stays there. An eventual flexible rotation that uses Fields, Thomas and Baker at NT, with Baker or Thomas rotating at DE at times isn't beyond possibility, either. That would be flexible and versatile, hallmarks of the amoeba approach.

Regardless of which one slides over (or whether they do - I'm suggesting an option, not predicting that we'll use it), the fact that we have some solid options in the pipeline at DL speaks well to the way the team will play next season. It also frees up a position in the draft, which always is a comfort. What I'm seeing is that we don't need a NT, thanks to good player evaluation last offseason.

Taming the Colts?

How will we handle Indy? Tough question, since they look like the cream of the league to me right now. If we do, we will do it much as we did against KC, even though Indy is so much better. We need for the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It's the only real way to limit him - he's just too good. We need our coverage to be what it's been the past two weeks - or even better. I don't know if even Champ and Goodman can shut down Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends, but for us to have a good chance, they will have to. It will be up to Ryan Clady and the offensive line to handle Dwight Feeney. Giving Orton time to throw and the right holes to our newly-empowered running game gives us the best chance. We will be mixing the zone blocking and gap blocking again - over the past two games, that has really begun to gel, right on time for a run at the wild-card slot.

We can't keep committing unforced errors. I suspect that our game will hinge on that -- too many players have contributed cognitive flatulence by taking stupid penalties this season. If we beat ourselves, we're toast. We need to show that we can play like a playoff team and make them beat us. Indy is a predator - always ready to pounce on the weaknesses a team manifests. We're moving two time zones and Indy is murder at home.

It's our toughest game of the year. I look forward to seeing where we measure up.

Go Broncos!

Cooking your way to Fantasy Turkey - Week 12 Fantasy Edition

Andrew Davidson — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

Should the Lions adopt the Goobledygooker as their Thanksgiving Mascot? Yep.(via 4.bp.blogspot.com)

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If there's one thing I've ever been jealous of Americans for, it's their awesome Thanskgiving tradition. The 3 Fs, Football, Family and Food, are something every nation should adopt on the last Thursday in November. The only bad thing about the tradition are the Detroit Lions. There was a time when Barry Sanders ran around on Turkey Day to make things interesting, but the thought of Matthew Stafford carving up the Green Bay Packers like he did the Browns is far fetched (especially considering his injury). At least the afternoon game will be interesting, right?

Not so fast, viewers will be treated with the Oakland Raiders visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Let's give the schedule makers a pat on the back for setting that contest up on Thanksgiving; good luck keeping your pumpkin pie down. At least the night game has promise, that is had promise until the Denver Broncos went on a 4-game losing skid. Denver hosts the New York Giants, who recently snapped their own 4-game slide. The Giants should be able to take care of business, but here's hoping the game is entertaining. Let's take a look from the fantasy side of things, to see who you'll be grateful for come turkey time.

Continue on after the jump to check out the forecasts for this Thanksgiving's games...

Packers @ Lions

Aaron Rodgers - Well it's pretty simple, the Lions have little defense and little chance at stopping Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay QB has a pretty good shot at upstaging Peyton Manning's 6-TD performance in 2004, if he's still in the game after half time. The Lions may be able to sack Rodgers a few times, but seriously what Rodgers fantasy owner hasn't been looking forward to this game since draft day? Turkey Day forecast: 275 pass yards, 4 PaTDs, 0 INTs

Greg Jennings - Thanks to Jennings for breaking out against San Francisco last Sunday, we really do appreciate it. Jennings may be able to match his game totals by the end of the first half in this one, while the Packers are still throwing the ball to get a big lead. If you can name anyone on the Lions that stands a chance at covering Jennings, I'll inform you that you're delirious. Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 100 yards, 2 TDs

Donald Driver - The veteran WR is having an excellent season to date, and while he may not top 100 yards in Detroit, he's certainly worth starting. You can lay down some coin on Driver scoring, because it's all but guaranteed that he'll reach pay dirt. Heck, your lineup wouldn't look too bad if you had Rodgers, Jennings and Driver as your QB, WR1, WR2. Even James Jones might make a good WR3 this week. Week 12 forecast: 7 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Ryan Grant - After the performance against San Francisco, it's hard to even consider putting Grant on the bench for this Thanksgiving Day match-up. You'd seriously have to have MJD and AP to think of benching Grant against the Lions. The Packers should be leading (and by a bunch), so the RB should benefit and receive a healthy amount of carries. Put him in and smile at the results. Week 12 forecast: 125 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 15 yards

Jermichael Finley - Finley returned to the lineup last weekend, and will likely be in the lineup against Detroit. The Green Bay TE managed 7 catches for 54 yards in his return, and will see similar success against the Lions. While he's certainly not going to set the world on fire, he's a good option against a very bad team. Week 12 forecast: 6 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD

Green Bay Team DEF - The Packers defense is finally turning into a well oiled machine, but also has some key players lost for the season. That shouldn't make a difference against the Lions, even though Matt Stafford launched 5 TDs and 422 yards against Cleveland. Calvin Johnson's big performance shouldn't scare you away from the Packers defense either. However, and this is a big however, the Lions may be able to put up some points in comeback mode, which could hurt the value a tad. Week 12 forecast: 20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FR, 1 Def TD

Calvin Johnson - Megatron is Detroit's best chance at getting back into the game if they get down early, and best chance to stay with the Packers if the game is close. His fantasy season has been disappointing thus far, and his injuries have his status in question for this divisional game. It's unlikely he'll play, so keep him out of your lineup. Week 12 forecast: Injured.

Dante Culpepper - Matt Stafford looked very good against Cleveland (as I've said several times already) and Detroit faces a slightly dinged up Packers squad. Stafford suffered a separated shoulder Sunday, and it's unclear whether he'll play at the time I write this. Dante Culpepper will likely get the nod, and I don't think he'll do anything better or worse than Stafford against the Packers. Regardless, it won't be wise to start either unless INTs don't count against you in your fantasy league. Week 12 forecast: Stafford OUT; Culpepper IN (bench both)

Kevin Smith - I'll spare writing out the rest of the Lions "fantasy options" because after Smith, there really aren't any. Where Detroit's RB will benefit is in the receiving game, as the Packers will likely lead and Smith will not receive a lot of carries. On the season, Smith has 33 recepitons for 321 yards and a TD; 104 yards and the TD came last week against the Browns. Smith isn't a great fantasy option, but I wouldn't label him a dud either. Week 12 forecast: 40 rush yards, 0 TDs; 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Oakland @ Dallas

Zach Miller - Miller's presence against Cincinnati helped the Raiders pull off the unthinkable upset. As a result, he's the only viable fantasy option in this game versus the Cowboys. While Bruce Gradkowski is playing well (compared to JaMarcus Russell), there's no Raider worth starting on Turkey Day other than Miller. The Raiders TE is a good fantasy option, and gets his credit where credit is due. Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Tony Romo - The Raiders defense held the Bengals to just 348 total yards (61 of those coming on one run), and Carson Palmer had just 207 pass yards with 1 INT and 0 PaTDs (2 rushing TDs). The Raiders defense certainly isn't a terrible one, and can likely keep Romo in check. It's hard to say "bench Romo", but bench Romo. The Cowboys will win this game in snoozing fashion, running hard and playing solid defense. Week 12 forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

Marion Barber - The Dallas RB hasn't scored since week 8, so expect that streak to come to a hault Thursday. Barber had 20 carries for 99 yards against Washington and more importantly, looked healthy. The Cowboys should grind out a power perfromance in order to beat the Raiders, and Barber will be a big factor in that area. I really like Barber's odds of having 2 TDs, and I really like his chances at topping 100. Week 12 forecast: 110 rush yards, 2 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards

Felix Jones - Jones should prove to be quite a punch in the Dallas RB combo, and is a borderline fantasy start. It's hard to say how well he will do, but his potential is there. He's still got speed (the knee brace is off), and the Raiders will likely be seeing Jones get 10-15 touches. It's hard to recommend starting Jones, and I can almost feel a big game coming. It's your call, but I think "bench him" is the better option. Week 12 forecast: 60 rush yards, 0 TDs; 1 catch, 25 yards

Miles Austin - The Cowboys WR hasn't score a TD in two games, and I'll put money down that says he won't score against the Raiders. Oakland's secondary will be able to keep Austin in check for most of the game, as he nor any of the Dallas WRs are serious fantasy threats in this game. If Jason Witten ends up missing the game, Austin and the rest of Dallas receiving crew's chance go up a bit in terms of fantasy production. Week 12 forecast: 3 catches, 55 yards, 0 TDs

Jason Witten - Now here's a receiving threat you should consider starting. The big TE is looking for some action, and I think he gets plenty against the Raiders. Witten hasn't scored a TD since week 2, but that will come to an end as Romo will find Witten in the red zone for six. UPDATE: Witten is a game-time decision with a foot injury, perhaps Martellus Bennett can be stashed in case of emergency purposes.. Week 12 forecast: 3 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD (if he plays)

Dallas Team DEF - Any time a team is facing Oakland, it's worth considering a spot in your starting lineup for. The Cowboys defense should provide a good pass rush and create a few turnovers in what likely will be a low scoring contest. If it ends up a high scoring affair, it likely won't be on Oakland's side of the billionare's scoreboard. Start the Cowboys unit, because it should give you a reason to actually watch this snooze fest. Week 12 forecast: 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 INTs

New York @ Denver

Brandon Marshall - The Broncos are a team desperately looking to get off a 4-game skid, and Brandon Marshall gives them a good chance at making the Giants game competitive. Marshall was held to just 3 catches for 26 yards against San Diego; the last time Denver's WR was held to just 3 catches in a game, he responded by scoring 4 TDs in the 3 games that followed. Marshall is a good turkey day delight, even if the Broncos get smashed into sweet potato pie. Week 12 forecast: 8 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD

Kyle Orton - Orton replaced Chris Simms in Sunday's loss to the Chargers, and played decent in his return. It's likely that Orton will be starting against the Giants, but it's best to sit him out of this contest. While Marshall is a good option, Orton isn't reliable from a fantasy perspective to start. Week 12 forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

Knowshon Moreno - The Giants have allowed 14 rush TDs on the season, making Moreno an ok option in most leagues. He's a borderline option as a RB2 in 10-12 man leagues, but has better value as a flex in a pinch. New York typically doesn't give up a lot of yards on the ground, ranked 11th in the NFL in rush ypg. Week 12 forecast: 65 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 15 yards

Eli Manning - After a great start to 2009, Manning cooled off during the Giants own four game losing streak. Last week, he heated back up throwing for 384 yards and 3 PaTDs. The Broncos do have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the NFL, but Manning is still worth starting in prime time on Thursday Night. Week 12 forecast: 245 pass yards, 3 PaTDs, 1 INT

Steve Smith - Smith hasn't had 100 yards receiving since week 4, and I expect the Broncos to keep his yardage in check this week. However, keeping Smith out of the end zone may prove to be difficult, and Smith makes a good WR3 play in leagues that have large starting lineups, and a WR2 in PPR leagues. Week 12 forecast: 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD

Mario Manningham - The former Wolverine is fresh off a 126 yard performance against Atlanta. Look for Manningham to have decent yardage total, and a TD. He makes a fairly good start in any size league this week, mainly because of his big play ability (15.4 ypr on the season). Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Hakeem Nicks - While Nicks should find the end zone, I'm not quite sure his yardage is going to warrant a starting position in your lineup. Nicks, like Manningham, has the big play ability (16.9 ypr), but is targetted less often. If you're just looking for a TD, give Nicks the nod. Week 12 forecast: 2 catches, 35 yards, 1 TD

Kevin Boss - With no more TDs to go around, it will be a wise move to leave Boss on the bench this Thursday. The Giants TE has been scoring "like a Boss" the past three weeks, totalling 4 TDs. However, the Denver defense has done quite well defending TEs this season, so bench him. Week 12 forecast: 4 catches, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs has been a fantasy dud for the better part of 2009, and suffered a leg injury against the Falcons. He's likely to play this week, but the Broncos have allowed just 6 rush TDs on the season. I don't think Jacobs is a tremendous option, but he may surprise. I'm still going to request his benching though. Week 12 forecast: 55 rush yards, 0 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards

Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw is still getting his touches despite the broken bone in his foot. He also shed his protective boot in last week's practices leading up to the Falcons game. At this point, Bradshaw is likely to miss the game in Denver, so stash him on your bench.. Week 12 forecast: Injured.

Final Comment

I'm going to take this time to predict the outcomes in each game, giving myself another opportunity to be dead wrong come Turkey Day. I'll take the Packers to handle the Lions, 45-20; The Cowboys to beat the Raiders, 24-10; and the Giants to overcome the Broncos, 27-14. I'll be back on Saturday with the regular edition for Week 12, including the sit/start forecasts. Until then, everyone please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving, and don't trample anyone on Black Friday.

If you're going to blame the coaches for loss to Oakland, then blame the players too.

Kirkendall — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:13:31 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

7 months ago: Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis looks on during football minicamp at Paul Brown Stadium, Friday, May 1, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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This is how it works. When the Bengals win, everyone celebrates because everyone was a big part of that win. When the Bengals lose, giving up over 100 yards in the fourth quarter and 10 points in the final minute of the game, we blame Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski. That's just how it is. Morgan Trent was covering Louis Murphy, who scored the game-tying touchdown. We blame Bob. The Bengals defense put no pressure on the Raiders quarterback. Blame Bob. Carson Palmer fumbled twice. Andre Caldwell fumbled twice, Jeremi Johnson fumbled once, all combined for three lost fumbles. Blame Bob. The Bengals committed eight penalties -- including two false starts on Chad Ochocinco, a false start on Nate Livings, encroachment on Tank Johnson, neutral zone infraction on Jonathan Fanene. We blame Bob.

Sure. There are things you could scratch your head about with Bratkowski. You could point to a Brian Leonard sweep to the right with 43 seconds left in the first half which forced the Raiders to take their last timeout. They got the ball back with 26 seconds left, at their own 36-yard line. While blaming Bob, Gradkowski completes a 19-yard pass to Zach Miller, and a short six-yard pass to Darren McFadden. Luckily Sebastian Janikowski missed a 57-yard field goal attempt to close out the first half.

I'm not defending Bratkowski here. I've never done that. But I'm not excusing the fact that the Bengals players lacked execution. I'm not letting them off the hook. A botched center to quarterback exchange should be the most natural act in football. A wide receiver should never false start. And the Bengals should have protected the goalline with the entire secondary, not just Morgan Trent covering a taller receiver, that allowed the game-tying touchdown. Three sacks allowed on third down and three lost fumbles tend to help you lose games too!

Some will claim the imbalanced rushing to passing ratio. That might be a fair argument. But the Raiders came into Sunday's game sporting the league's 29th best rushing defense. The Raiders 14 allowed rushing touchdowns was tied for 31st. They were ranked 14th against the pass. It makes sense to attack the defense's weakness. Some also claim that the rushing offense wasn't working and that Bernard Scott's rushing numbers were no good because of a 61-yard rushing play inflated his numbers. Since we believe in fairness, let's should take away Laveranues Coles' 40-yard reception and Chad Ochocinco's 30-yard reception because they inflated Carson Palmer's numbers. Now, Palmer has 137 yards passing.

Last I checked, blaming Bratkowski for bad play from the offense, defense and special teams will only get you so far. At some point the players are the ones that execute. So instead of taking the easy way out, let's just acknowledge that players and coaches were to blame for Sunday's loss. This is a team. A collection of people with a bigger picture in mind. Or give the Raiders credit. They played their butts off and took it to us. Either way, a loss is a loss. The best part? Taking it out on Cleveland.

I know that my opinion will be in the minority on this one, so go to town.

Mining your way to fantasy gold - Week 11 Edition

Andrew Davidson — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:00:13 -0000

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Expecting Jay Cutler to bounce back in Week 11? If bouncing back is throwing less than 5 INTs, than yes, he'll bounce back. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, File)

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Fooch's Note: Check out the weekly team scouting reports from the rest of SB Nation.

Hello everyone and welcome again to How Wrong Andrew Davidson can be. Last week I said to bench Brandon Marshall against the league's "best" pass defense, and he only scored 2 TDs on his first 2 catches. Donovan McNabb had a less than favourable road game in San Diego, I told you to sit him - he threw for just 450 yards and 2 TDs (1 INT). I wasn't all wrong though, nailing Kansas City's forecast almost directly on the nose (10 pts, 3 sacks, 2 INTs) as they held Oakland to 10 points, with 2 sacks and 2 INTs. If you benched Cedric Benson, you avoided a horrible fantasy performance thanks in large part to an injury. Thomas Jones failed to meet the high expectations I forecasted, but still managed to score a TD and rack up 77 rush yards. Certainly nothing for me, or Rex Ryan, to be crying about.

This week's match-ups provide us with some interesting fantasy options. For example, two incredibly bad defenses face one another when the Cleveland Browns travel visit the Detroit Lions for what's billed as the Toilet Bowl. That's giving the two teams a little too much credit, this one's more like a Septic Tank. No one wants to see what it has to offer, but you just can't help to check it out and see just how brutal things are. The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars also square off, and Maurice Jones-Drew is good for his weekly 100+ yards, 1-2 TD performance because the Bills are what they are - bad. Are there any interesting fantasy nuggets in these contest? Read on to find out.

Sleepers

San Diego Team DEF @ Denver - The Broncos are on a three game slide, while the Chargers are just hitting their stride; Kyle Orton is hurtin', so it's with the Charger's D you should be flirtin'. San Diego really is coming into a zone, and should continue last year's trend by starting off slow, only to catch the Broncos for the division crown. The team allowed 462 total yards to Philadelphia last weekend, but kept the points in check until they allowed 14 in the fourth quarter. I expect a different trend this week, the Broncos will have 14 points by half-time, but be held to just a field goal the rest of the way. Mr. Roper is going to have his Chargers ready and willing to lay down some smack and give the Broncos a rocky mountain people's elbow. Week 11 Forecast: 17 pts allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs

Zach Miller TE, OAK vs. CIN - Why on earth would I recommend a guy that's facing a Bengals defense that has allowed just 3 TDs to TEs this season, not to mention that only one TE had over 70 yards receiving against? Well, it's simple: Zach Miller is due. The Raiders TE has had just 1 TD all season and was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards against Kansas City last weekend. The Arizona State product is the leading receiver for the Raiders, and I expect the team to try and feed him the ball. I also think the Bengals may be over looking Oakland after a big win in Pittsburgh. Cincinnati's swagger may work against them this weekend, and I expect Zach Miller to reward fantasy owners. Week 11 Forecast: 6 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

After the jump, the QBs, WRs and RBs that you should do the opposite of what I suggest...

QB to Start

Trent Edwards BUF @ JAX - Well, I wasn't paying much attention to news coming out of Buffalo this week, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was named the starter. I no longer have much confidence in the Bills pulling off an upset or Trent Edwards as a viable fantasy option. Yikes. Week 11 Forecast: ~~250 pass yards, 2 PaTDs, 0 INTs; 25 rush yards~~ Benchville

Matt Hasselbeck SEA @ MIN - The Seahawks should be trailing in this contest, meaning Hasselbeck has a good chance at topping 300 yards for the third consecutive week. Seattle probably won't have a lot of success on the ground even if the game is close, so go ahead and plug Hasselbeck into the starting lineup. Week 11 Forecast: 300 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

QB to Sit

Jay Cutler CHI vs. PHI - Even with the Bears at home, and Cutler likely not able to repeat a 5-INT performance, it'sn not a good idea starting the gunslinger this weekend. Of course, now that I say that Cutler will throw for 300 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs as the Bears upset the Eagles, but let's not get side tracked. Philadelphia brings the heat early, often and all the time. This prime time match-up gives them a chance to show case just how furious the pass rush can be. Although, Cutler having two poor prime-time performances in a row does seem odd? Nah, not for the Cutler, the Eagles Pass Defense is ranked 10th overall, and also allows just 184.2 pass ypg on the road. While Cutler's total should easily surpass that, I don't think he'll be interception free. Week 11 Forecast: 260 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 3 INTs

WR to Start

Calvin Johnson DET vs. CLE - Megatron owners have been very unhappy with the Lions Wide Out for the better part of 2010. Some have gone far enough to drop him, others have silently suffered through the injuries. However, this is the week that Calvin Johnson lives up to his nickname. The Browns are the 20th ranked pass defense, but on the road they allow 269 pass ypg, which is 4th worst in the league (and not quite as bad as San Francisco's). It was a toss up for me to recommend Matthew Stafford (but that route failed twice already) and instead I'm saying leave Johnson in your lineup with absolute confidence this weekend. If there's one week to start him, this is it. My only fear is that the game ends at half-time to spare CBS viewers from literal insanity. I think Megatron still has a good first half regardless. Week 11 Forecast: 9 catches, 110 yards, 2 TDs

RB to Start

Beanie Wells ARI @ STL - First, let me get this off my chest: I hate Ohio State. Ok, I feel better, and knowing that I hate the Buckeyes, you should respect that I'm recommending a former Buckeye this weekend against St. Louis. The Rams put up a respectable outing against New Orleans last week, and really caused Drew Brees fits. However, St. Louis allowed 203 rushing yards to the Saints RB committee. Arizona unleashed Chris Wells for 85 yards and 2 TDs last week against Seattle. The Cardinals should know that the Rams are ready for the pass attack, especially after watching the film from the Saints game. Marques Colston did drop a bunch of passes, but overall the Cardinals should be gameplanning to pound the rock, and Beanie owners should profit. Week 11 Forecast: 100 total yards, 2 TDs

RB to Sit

Ryan Grant GB vs. SF - You can say that I effectively jinxed the 49ers by telling owners to bench Ryan Grant, but seriously, the Niners Run D is for real. The 49ers still boast the third best rush defense, and when travelling on the road, opponents average just 71.2 rush ypg (at just 3.1 ypc). I will also note that home teams versus the 49ers rarely score rushing TDs (0.2/game), and this week should prove to be no different. While the Packers find success through the air against the 49ers (allowing 284.2 pass ypg on the road), Ryan Grant will be a forgotten man. I'm also not worried about Grant receiving a lot out of the backfield, despite San Francisco's tendency to give up a lot of receiving yards to running backs. Sit Ryan Grant, and you'll be fine. Week 11 Forecast: 75 total yards, 0 TDs

NOTE: As usual stats provided by http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/ and http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats. Don't forget to vote, or post your questions in the comments regarding your own sit/start match-ups you're torn between this weekend. Also, those of you in the Niners Nation 1 league with me through FleaFlicker can appreciate the 3-game win streak I'm on, that's got me into 2nd place in my division. Also props to Dazed and Confused for his currently undefeated season.

Poll

Which Fantasy Option will have the biggest game this weekend?

San Diego Team DEF @ DEN

14 votes

Zach Miller TE OAK vs. CIN

3 votes

Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA @ MIN

1 votes

Calvin Johnson WR DET vs. CLE

62 votes

Beanie Wells RB ARI @ STL

39 votes

A guy you're telling me to bench, dummy.

29 votes

148 votes | Poll has closed

Primer: Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)

Kirkendall — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:10:39 -0000

Game: Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)
Series Leader: Raiders, 17-8
Streak: Raiders have won three of the past four
Coaches vs. Opponent: Lewis: 1-1. Cable: 0-0
Broadcast: CBS (4:15 PM ET): Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots. SIRIUS: 127 (Cin.), 130 (Oak.). XM: 104 (Cin.).
SB Nation: Silver and Black Pride
NFL.com: Game Center
Weather: Partly cloudy with a high 59 and light winds. [Weather.com]
Uniform: White
Television Coverage: Most of Ohio, West Virginia, northern Kentucky and areas around Oakland and into Nevada. [506]

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 4-0 on the road in 2009 and looks to win the fifth consecutive road game for the first time in franchise history.
Under Marvin Lewis, when a running back rushes 25 times or more, the Bengals are 26-1.
Carson Palmer needs four touchdown passes to reach 125 in his career -- third Bengals player in franchise history to achieve that milestone.
In his past three games, Palmer has thrown for six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Cedric Benson needs 141 yards rushing for his first 1,000-yard season.
When rushing 20 times or more in a game, Benson averages 106.2 yards rushing in those games -- teams are 11-1-1.
Frostee Rucker recorded his first career interception last week.
Jonathan Fanene has a career-high five quarterback sacks in 2009; including a career-best two last week.
Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall have combined for 25 passes defensed this season.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are 8-0 all-time against the Bengals in games played in Oakland since October 27, 1968.
Quarterback JaMarcus Russell needs 137 yards passing to reach 4,000 yards in his career.
Running back Michael Bush posted his first 100-yard rushing game last week and second of his career.
Justin Fargas has a career 6.2 yards-per-rush average against the Bengals (15 attempts, 93 yards).
Fargas looks to record a touchdown in his third straight game.
Tight End Zach Miller ranks sixth in franchise history among Tight Ends with 129 receptions and 1,652 yards receiving.
Defense has 10 sacks in the past four games.
Since 2008, cornerback Chris Johnson leads the team with six interceptions and looks to record a pick in his third straight game.
Defensive Ends Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis have a combined 124 career quarterback sacks.
Rookie defensive end Matt Shaughnessy looks to record a sack in his third straight game.

TEAM RANKINGS

Offense	Bengals	Raiders
Total	334.2 (19th)	222.0 (31st)
Scoring	22.0 (17th)	9.8 (31st)
Third Downs	41% (15th)	27% (29th)
Rushing	122.3 (11th)	103.4 (20th)
Rushing TDs	7 (t-15th)	5 (t-23rd)
Passing	211.9 (19th)	118.6 (31st)
Passing TDs	14 (t-12th)	2 (32nd)
Sacks Allowed	14 (6th)	27 (t-26th)
20-yard Passes	24 (t-16th)	11 (t-31st)

Defense	Bengals	Raiders
Total	314.4 (11th)	367.1 (24th)
Scoring	16.3 (2nd)	24.1 (25th)
3rd Downs Allowed	34% (7th)	34% (5th)
Rushing	83.4 (2nd)	155.6 (29th)
Rushing TDs	4 (t-5th)	14 (t-31st)
Passing	231.0 (21st)	211.6 (14th)
Passing TDs	10 (t-10th)	8 (t-4th)
Sacks	25 (t-4th)	19 (t-17th)
QB Rating	77.9 (9th)	83.1 (16th)
20-Yard Passes Allowed	28 (t-21st)	28 (t-21st)
Interceptions	11 (t-6th)	6 (t-26th)

Special Teams	Bengals	Raiders
Kickoff Return	22.5 (19th)	18.7 (32nd)
Punt Return	11.7 (5th)	2.6 (32nd)
Punting (Net)	37.3 (t-20th)	44.8 (1st)
Punts Inside the 20	14 (t-18th)	19 (t-5th)

2009 STATISTICAL INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Carson Palmer	Stat	Ranking
Quarterback Rating	88.1	15th
Yards Passing	2,010	16th
Touchdowns	14	t-10th
First Downs	103	14th
Average Yards/Att	6.9	18th
Completions	178	t-14th
Interceptions	7	t-14th
Times Sacked	14	10th

Cedric Benson	Stat	Ranking
Yards Rushing	859	6th
Attempts / Game	22.8	1st
Touchdowns	6	t-8th
First Downs	36	t-6th

Chad Ochocinco	Stat	Ranking
Receptions	46	t-17th
Yards Receiving	668	t-11th
Touchdowns	5	t-12th
20-yard receptions	10	t-7th
First Downs	35	t-8th

CAREER AGAINST THE OAKLAND RAIDERS

Carson Palmer

Date	Result	Comp	Att	Yards	TDs	INTs
12.10.2006	W, 27-10	20	28	297	2	3

Chad Johnson

Date	Rec	Yards	TDs
12.10.2006	5	101	0
9.14.2003	8	131	0

Laveranues Coles

Date	Rec	Yards	TDs
10.19.2008	4	51	0
12.31.2006	2	24	0
12.11.2005	3	30	0
12.2.2002	10	158	0
1.6.2002	5	111	1
12.10.2000	1	16	0

Cedric Benson

Date	Rush	Yards	TDs
11.11.2007	28	72	1

Larry Johnson

Date	Rush	Yards	TDs
11.30.2008	24	92	1
9.14.2008	12	22	0
10.21.2007	24	112	1
12.23.2006	31	135	1
11.19.2006	31	154	2
11.6.2005	22	107	2
9.18.2005	9	41	1
12.25.2004	25	79	2
12.5.2004	20	118	1

Saturday Morning Thought: Is The Oakland Raider Offense Aw-fence-ive or Uh-fence-ive?

saint — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:57:45 -0000

I was starting to write the second piece of the Aw-fence-ive First Half Break Down, when my mind began to be amused by the duality of the word that is spelled "O-F-F-E-N-S-I-V-E", so I turned to Dictionary.com for a closer look as the break down of the word.

Here is what I found:

The root of the word, "Offensive", begins with the Latin Word for "Us", Offens, then goes into the Latin word for "To Strike Against or Displease" and then wraps up with the common "ive", or showing characteristics of being.

As it relates to our football team, I would have to say that, the word, aw-fensive, would be either, a team striking against another with the ball in our hands as a unit and showing those characteristics by consistently executing a game plan with success.

I don't think that the 2009 Raiders, on the surface, with zero regard to actual stats, are anywhere near resembling that definition.

Mentally, the leader of the unit, JaMarcus Russell has said that it is not his fault. He has failed to take his lumps with his squad and also failed to realize that without the "us" in the word, there is no "offens", only an "ive". Therefor they have no chance of being Aw-fensive.

No, the form of the word that this squad has resembled is the Us-Displease-Ive.

Consistently, this team has been booed by the displeased patrons at the Coliseum. From the play calling to the execution the entire way through the play, the uh-fensive side of the ball has been unpleasant and disagreeable to the senses (Another definition of the word).

Taking the O-Line out of it, let's see which of our Aw-fensive skill positions players stack up:

Aw-Fensive

Zach Miller, Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, Louis Murphy (Maybe, because he drops too many balls)

Uh-Fensive

Darren McFadden (Always being hurt is unpleasant to my senses), Darrius Heyward-Bey, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Todd Wadtkins, JaMarcus Russell

As a unit, this crew is so Uh-fensive that, they rank at or near the bottom in every Aw-fensive Category. So, Raider fans there is nowhere to go but UP and I really feel that by just trying to STRIKE AGAINST others, as a team, would be a HUGE step in the right direction, because, even if the numbers still lag, we couls at least call them Aw-fensive and be grammatically correct, which is one heckuva step in the right direction.

Oakland Raiders Offensive Update: The Receiving Core

saint — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:20:27 -0000

With the Bye Week upon us, I think we should take this time to reflect on the first half.Of course, with a 2-6 record there will be much to look at on the disappointing side, but, there will be a few things that we can look at on the positive side. Unfortunately NONE of those will be on the offensive side of the ball.

Regardless of what the players on the scoring side of the ball say, (Darrius Heyward-Bey from the CC Times, "I've been very solid") they have stunk, and they have stunk regularly.

As I pointed out last week, and many local columnists have also since, they are at a "Bed and Breakfast level" of scoring.

Coming into last week, they reached the Red Zone the least amount of any team in football, 9 times, 9 MEASLY times. That is two games worth for most, decent offenses, so that should put their futility into some perspective. They aren't even giving themselves a chance to score, thus, they only lead the hapless St. Louis Rams (9.6) in scoring and are tied with Cleveland at 9.8 points per game.

So, how have they arrived here? Let's start with the most glaring weakness, the receivers.

First off, they are starting two rookies that THINK they are World Beaters. I mean, just reference the DHB line above and then listen to Murphy talk about how, "They are a GREAT team", and you'll soon get the picture. In all fairness to the squad, the three receivers with the best hands have not found their ways onto the field yet this year.

Chaz and Miller should be back soon and the only reasonable explanation for Javon Walker not playing is the Marcus Allen treatment he MAY be receiving from AL Davis due to him having off-season surgery and doing it on his own without telling anyone.

The ONE bright spot in the entire receiving core is Zach Miller, without him, I shiver to think how poorly this team would play.

Zach has hauled in 28 passes for 421 yards. Murphy and Bey have combined for 21 catches for 306 yards. In fact, the entire wide receiving core has 28 catches for 373 yards. That is just downright terrible. Especially when you see that Johnnie Lee Higgins, last year's top wide-out has only 2 catches for 8 yards.

This really is disgusting and, I believe, is much worse than the time spent under Shell and Walsh, this team actually has talent on the offensive side of the ball and they are terrible. There is no excuse for NOT getting the ball to Johnnie Lee more and for sitting Javon Walker on the bench so that DHB can watch another perfectly thrown TD bounce off of his facemask.

What do you think of the Receiving core's perfromance, so far, Raider Nation?

This post was sponsored by Comcast Red Zone

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. Oakland Raiders Pass Offense

John B — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 14:27:29 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sakuma - AP

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I'm not convinced the Raiders can throw the ball effectively on the Jets, and that's putting it nicely. JaMarcus Russell is only hitting 45.6 percent of his passes. He has 2 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Russell is the posterboy for everything that's wrong with quarterback evaluation for the NFL Draft. Scouts saw that he's big, athletic, and has a big arm and automatically assumed he would become a great quarterback. Those attributes are accessories. Russell is not accurate, does not have sound mechanics, lacks instincts, and does not seem to handle adversity well. Say what you will about Mark Sanchez. Perhaps he ends up as a bust. Sanchez at least has these tools. Part of Russell's problem is the place he ended up. The Raiders didn't have the coaching to develop him or put a good team around him. In the end, their quarterback is a liability. The Jets are probably going to attack him.

The Raiders also lack weapons in the passing game. Their leading wide receiver, Louis Murphy, has 12 catches for 174 yards. First round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey has 2 receptions for 46 yards. Heyward-Bey shows what's wrong with receiver evaluation. Most experts thought Oakland took him way too early, but he still had a borderline first round grade. That was only because he has great straight line speed. Good hands? He doesn't have them. The ability to run routes well to shake defenders? Nope. The Jets have been getting great cornerback play. There's no reason for them to not attack Russell. Their corners can eat up these receivers.

The one weapon in the passing game the Raiders have is Zach Miller. He leads the club with 21 receptions and 354 yards by wide margins. This will be interesting because for once the Jets cannot use Darrelle Revis to take away the focal point of the opposing passing attack. Since he's the only weapon in the passing game, though, the Jets can scheme to take him away fairly easily.

Oakland has a patchwork offensive line at this point. Starting guards Robert Gallery and Cooper Carlisle are probably out. So is right tackle Cornell Green. Center Samson Satele is nothing special. The Dolphins let him walk to sign Jake Grove away from the Raiders. This is not what you want protecting Russell. Oakland will probably settle for Russell avoiding catastropic errors. Any plays in the passing game will be a bonus.