SB Nation - Quentin Moses

The Joey Porter saga continues in Miami, but is he even needed?

Matty I — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:15:08 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

The bench. Perhaps Joey Porter should get used to it.

In case you haven't heard, Chris Mortensen reported during Monday Night Countdown that Dolphins LB Joey Porter is not expected to play on Thursday night when his team travels up to Carolina to take on the Panthers. In fact, Mortensen added that Porter might not be playing again "anytime soon." And all this comes after Porter was deactivated for this past week's game against Tampa Bay - described by the Dolphins as a "coach's decision."

There have also been multiple reports that the original reason for Porter's deactivation against the Buccaneers was related to Joey, who was nursing an injury and not feeling well, being allowed to leave the facility early to go home. However, Joey allegedly didn't go home - he went "elsewhere." The team learned of this and made the decision to sit him against the Bucs.

But you have to wonder if Mortensen's report on Monday night is actually accurate. Joey spoke to the media earlier on Monday and did said, among other things, "It was coach's decision. There's nothing else to talk about. It's already behind me."

Head coach Tony Sparano made it seem like this whole situation was behind him as well. In fact, he actually defended Porter's lack of production this season when asked about it by the media:

"I see different things that Joey does, different things that Joey has gotten better at, things that you guys won't see unless you watch the film with us. That is a credit to Joey. When you can teach an old dog a new trick — that is a positive."

This is why I'm having a hard time believing Mortensen's report that Porter won't play on Thursday night. Maybe he won't start - and maybe he doesn't even deserve to (we'll get into that in a minute). But you can't sit here and tell me that Joey Porter isn't as good as a guy like Quentin Moses - who would be the player who would get Porter's spot on the 45-player gameday roster if Joey is indeed deactivated again.

I also find it hard to believe that Tony Sparano would tell the media one thing - and defend Joey to the reporters - while bashing him behind closed doors. I just don't see Sparano as that kind of coach - one who would be that disingenuous.

With that said, Sparano did make it clear to the media that he plans to use a rotation among all of his outside linebackers from here on out:

"I will be honest with you and I might have mentioned this after the game, but our plan going in was to have a rotation and we will continue to have a rotation and get as many of these guys in the game that we can get into the game. I think Cameron and Charlie were both productive yesterday so there is no reason for them not to get into the game and play."

This means that, with or without Porter, the Dolphins will continue to rotate in all of their top outside linebackers - Jason Taylor, Charlie Anderson, Cameron Wake, and Matt Roth. But wouldn't the Dolphins benefit from including Porter in this rotation?

You would think so. But it's important to also keep in mind that we don't really know what has been going on behind closed doors. Perhaps Joey was told by Sparano that he would be rotating the outside linebackers in and out of the game more often moving forward and Joey - being the competitor he is - was not happy. Again, that's just speculation - but it would make sense.

Regardless of the reason, however, would the Dolphins really miss Joey Porter on the field if he is indeed deactivated again? The statistics lead you to believe they would not.

On the season, Joey Porter has played 378 defensive snaps. Of those, Porter has 2.5 sacks and 8 quarterback pressures. Meanwhile, everybody's favorite CFL transplant - Cameron Wake - has taken just 90 snaps. In those 90 snaps, Wake has 4.5 sacks and 12 quarterback pressures (which are the most pressures of any Dolphin, one more than Jason Taylor). It's also worth pointing out that Charlie Anderson has taken 92 snaps on defense and has one sack and two quarterback pressures.

If you wanted to average these figures out, Wake is getting a sack or pressuring the quarterback on one out of every six snaps and Anderson one out of every 31 snaps. Porter, meanwhile, is averaging just one sack or pressure out of every 36 snaps.

Of course, Wake is rushing the passer on pretty much every snap he sees. That's what he does. Anderson and Porter are asked to do more - like drop into coverage. You also need to adjust those numbers for opponent's play selection. And if we did that, odds are that Wake sees a much greater ratio of passing plays to running plays than either of the other two.

But still, these stats aren't really telling us something that we haven't seen with our own eyes when watching these games. And the fact has been that, for most of the season, Joey Porter has not been effective at getting to the quarterback. And when you are the weakside outside linebacker in a 3-4, that is your primary job.

If I was Joey, I'd be on my very best behavior - because I think we might be getting to the point where these Miami Dolphins no longer need Joey. Or perhaps Joey has already realized this, possibly resulting in the spat between Porter and the team behind closed doors.

Final Roster Predictions

Matty I — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 23:30:35 -0000

After a long, grueling training camp and preseason, some players will no longer be Miami Dolphins as of 4 pm eastern on Saturday. The Dolphins went into Thursday's preseason finale with 66 players on their roster. They must be down to 53 players by the 4 pm deadline.

Below is my final roster prediction. I've included some explanations after my prediction. Check it out and then tell us your final predictions.

	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
QB	Chad Pennington	Chad Henne	Pat White
RB	Ronnie Brown	Ricky Williams	Patrick Cobbs
FB	Lousaka Polite
WR	Ted Ginn	Greg Camarillo	Brandon London
WR	Davone Bess	Brian Hartline	Patrick Turner
TE	Anthony Fasano	David Martin	John Nalbone
LT	Jake Long	Andrew Gardner
LG	Justin Smiley	Brandon Frye
C	Jake Grove	Joe Berger
RG	Donald Thomas	Shawn Murphy
RT	Vernon Carey
	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
DE	Kendall Langford	Tony McDaniel
NT	Jason Ferguson	Paul Soliai
DE	Randy Starks	Phillip Merling	Lionel Dotson
SOLB	Jason Taylor	Charlie Anderson	Quentin Moses
ILB	Channing Crowder	Reggie Torbor
ILB	Akin Ayodele
WOLB	Joey Porter	Cameron Wake	Erik Walden
CB	Will Allen	Vontae Davis	Jason Allen
CB	Sean Smith	Nathan Jones
S	Yeremiah Bell	Chris Clemons
S	Gibril Wilson	Tyrone Culver
	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
K	Dan Carpenter
P	Brandon Fields
LS	John Denney

PUP: Matt Roth
Last 5 On: Brandon London, Erik Walden, John Nalbone, Brandon Frye, Quentin Moses
First 5 Off: Lex Hilliard, William Kershaw, Joey Haynos, Courtney Bryan, Nate Garner

Quick explanations:

The final roster spot, for me, came down to Brandon London, Lex Hilliard, and William Kershaw. But I think Kershaw could still make the team if the Dolphins decide to only keep five outside linebackers as opposed to six - possibly in place of Erik Walden or Quentin Moses. I think they'll try to sneak Hilliard onto the practice squad. The bottom line is that London is more valuable in terms of the number of plays he sees on gameday because of special teams. Although, truth be told, regardless of if it's London or Hilliard, I'm not sure either is a lock to be active on gameday.
I'm confident that the Dolphins will keep three tight ends. Some think David Martin could be a surprise cut, but he's still head and shoulders better than either John Nalbone or Joey Haynos. With the number of two TE sets Dan Henning uses, I don't see why the Dolphins would need to cut Martin. You could see the Dolphins keep Haynos over Nalbone, though - which would mean Nalbone is a prime practice squad candidate. But I also wouldn't be shocked to see another team (Kansas City or Cincinnati, for example) poach Nalbone off wiavers. Both teams have a need at tight end. I wouldn't even take the risk, if I were the Dolphins - which is why Nalbone is on my final 53.
I think Dotson has shown enough to earn a roster spot. But barring injury, he's likely going to be inactive on most gamedays.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Dolphins decided to waive Andrew Gardner in favor of Nate Garner. If that's the case, the Dolphins would obviously hope to get Gardner on the practice squad.
If I had to come up with a list of possible practice squad candidates based on my 53-man roster prediction above, I'd say J.D. Folsom and Lex Hilliard would be locks. Mark Lewis and James Robinson would be other possibilities. And I'd expect the Dolphins to go outside the organization for other potential guys.

Dolphins at Saints: What to watch for

Matty I — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 04:15:08 -0000

A lot of casual football fans feel that the preseason is meaningless. These same fans probably feel like the fourth preseason game is a total waste of time and not worth watching. But these fans aren't the kind of diehard football fans that we all are. And they are certainly not Dolphin fans. Why? Because Dolphin fans know that this fourth preseason is indeed worth watching. There are a number of things to focus on tonight when the Dolphins head to New Orleans to face the Saints to close out their preseason.

Below are just some of the storylines to watch.

THE ROSTER BATTLES
One of the things I love about the fourth preseason game is how those "roster bubble players" get a lot of playing time. These are the guys fighting not just for the win but for their own jobs. And nothing will motivate you more in life than the risk of being out of work. Sure, football is just a game. But to these "bubble" guys, it's their livelihood. Therefore, I've always enjoyed watching the final preseason games - and I'm not just talking about the Dolphins' final game. There's nothing like watching players compete with their own teammates to be the 52nd or 53rd player on the roster.

Since I posted a longer article focusing in on the key battles that remain yesterday - and you can view it by clicking here - I won't get into it too deep here. I will say, though, that I'm most interested in two battles. Being the Jersey guy I am, I'm very much pulling for John Nalbone to make the team over Joey Haynos. To his advantage, Nalbone is a very good blocker and is also a special teams contributor. He has two special teams tackles in three preseason games. Haynos, on the other hand, is a massive guy (6'8, 270). But I think that hinders him on special teams. I'm not so sure a guy his size can run down the field and cover a kick as well as others can - and that could hurt him.

The other battle I'm interested in is between Lex Hilliard and Brandon London. I'm fully confident that both will not make the team but am fairly certain that one will. The contract extension handed out to Ricky Williams could be a factor here. With Ricky and Patrick Cobbs signed for 2010, Hilliard would again be, at best, a fourth running back in 2010 if he was to stick around that long. He is practice squad eligible, but if the Dolphins like Lex enough, it would be a risky move to try and sneak him through waivers. Meanwhile, London is not eligible for the practice squad and is probably the better special teamer of the two. But he hasn't impressed as a receiver as much as he should have thus far.

CAN HENNE BOUNCE BACK?
If you have at least one good eye, then you can't argue that Chad Henne's performance last week against Tampa Bay was pretty bad. And I was one of the most critical of Henne - that I'm aware of. But that doesn't mean I'm rooting against him - which is why I'm very interested in seeing how Henne performs tonight. It's expected that Henne will play the second and third quarters. Yes, that means he'll face backup defenders pretty much exclusively. But that doesn't change anything to me. If anything, it actually adds more pressure on Henne. A bad performance against New Orleans' backups would make Henne get scrutinized even more. What I hope to see are more accurate throws, quicker reads, and better decision making. I'm not looking for some big performance, just an improvement - just something that shows he can bounce back off of a very poor outing.

Henne knows he has to improve and is putting pressure on himself to have a much better game against New Orleans as well. "It wasn't me out there, says Henne. "I don't want to have a game like that again." I can't wait to find out how he responds.

STARTERS WILL PLAY
While most NFL teams will rest their starters in their final preseason game, Tony Sparano is taking a different approach. Chad Pennington is expected to play the first quarter and the starting offensive line will probably play at least the first half. Why? Simple - to get better.

This is where Sparano and most other head coaches differ. Coming off of a sub-par offensive performance last week, Sparano is sending out his starting offense tonight so they can at least get in some work and build some confidence for their season opener against Atlanta. I hope to see the starting offense get into a rhythm out there and make some plays. We can't have two or three 3-and-outs to start the game like we did last week.

Meanwhile, Sparano - a former OL coach - has always been a believer in getting your starting offensive line extensive playing time in the preseason to help them gel. This unit is no different. It has a lot of talent - but has to work together and become a cohesive unit. Last preseason, the starting offensive line played the entire first half of the finale. I expect to see the same thing tonight. After all, the more this unit works together in real game situations, the better off they will be in the long run.

QUICK HITS
Here are some more things to look for tonight:

A lot of attention will be paid to the battle for the starting WR spot. But the reason I didn't bring it up above is because I'm fairly confident that whoever actually wins the starting job isn't necessarily going to be more important to the offense than the other two. The Dolphins did a great job of rotating their receivers based on the situation last season and I foresee that happening again in 2009.
The outside linebacker position is an interesting one to keep an eye on. Matt Roth will likely land on the PUP list, so he has no relevance to this discussion. Joey Porter, Jason Taylor, and Cameron Wake are obviously locks. But then you got guys like Charlie Anderson, Quentin Moses, and Erik Walden all hoping to stick on the 53-man roster. Will the Dolphins keep 6 outside linebackers? Those three are probably hoping. But if the Dolphins only keep five, which one turns out to be the odd man out? Moses has been the most impressive of the three. But Anderson and Walden are the better special teams players.

The remaining roster battles in Miami

Matty I — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 04:15:10 -0000

The Dolphins must get their roster down to 53 players by Saturday afternoon. In between now and then, the players have just one final opportunity to make their own particular cases - their preseason finale in New Orleans on Thursday night. For some, it will be a final chance to prove they should be starting. For others, it will be one last opportunity to prove to the coaches and front office that they deserve roster spots.

Here are some of the final battles to keep in the back of your minds as you watch Thursday's finale:

Greg Camarillo vs Davone Bess vs Brian Hartline
Barring something unforeseen, all three of these receivers will make the team. However, only one can start opposite of Ted Ginn on September 13 when the Dolphins travel to Atlanta. Bess worked with the first-team offense for much of the early parts of camp and started to open the preseason. But Brian Hartline has spent much of his time working with the starters since the week before the second preseason game and hasn't looked back - starting both of the last two preseason games. Hartline right now leads the Dolphins in receiving yards and yards per reception during the preseason. He also most closely fits the mold of what Tony Sparano wants out of the starting receiver opposite of Teddy - a guy who can pick up chunks of yardage at a time. Meanwhile, Camarillo continues to linger in the background as he gets closer and closer to being 100%. It was clear to me that he's still not physically back to where he was at before his knee injury when we saw him chugging down field last game for his 50+ yard catch and run. However, Camarillo did get some first-team reps on Tuesday.

I still think that Hartline is probably the favorite right now to start with Bess working as the team's primary slot receiver - his ideal position, to be honest. But a big game from Camarillo on Thursday night and/or a rough game for Hartline could change how the starting lineup looks in Atlanta in less than two weeks.

Lex Hilliard vs Brandon London
I've looked at the roster a number of ways and just don't see how it's possible that the Dolphins can keep both of these guys on the 53-man roster. A fourth halfback and a sixth receiver are both luxuries and there's no room on this team for two luxury players like that. I think it'll be either one or the other (if any) and the deciding factor could be special teams.

Hilliard leads all Miami backs with 126 yards rushing and a 4.3 ypc average. He opened a lot of eyes in the team's second preseason game when he showed a very nice burst through the hole on his 39 yard TD run against Carolina. It's rare you see a 240 pound power back with that kind of acceleration. But he has put the ball on the ground two times in just 29 carries, which is unacceptable. Meanwhile, London has just 2 catches for 22 yards in the preseason. However, the 6'4 receiver has a lot of physical talent and has at least proven he can make a big play in a regular season game (yes, I'm talking about his huge 3rd down catch against the Jets in the regular season finale last year). That's more than you can say about Hilliard. But is one big reception and a ton of upside enough to stick on the roster? And at what point does potential turn into disappointment?

Like I said, though, this battle could come down to special teams. London was excellent on the coverage unit last season. Hilliard, though, has put together a solid preseason special teams performance. Tony Sparano even admitted so last week when speaking to the media.

Another thing to keep in mind is the practice squad. Lex Hilliard is eligible to go on Miami's practice squad. But he'd first have to make it through waivers without any other team signing him - which is no safe bet. On the other hand, London is not eligible for the practice squad because he dressed for 14 games last season with the Dolphins. So the Dolphins would have to cut their ties with Brandon if they choose not to keep him on the final 53-man roster. Because of that, I'd leaning more towards the Dolphins keeping Brandon around and attempting to sneak Hilliard through to the practice squad. But I'm far from confident in that prediction right now.

John Nalbone vs Joey Haynos
I'm fairly confident that the Dolphins will indeed keep three tight ends on their roster. Dan Henning loves using two tight end sets and wouldn't be able to if one of the two went down to injury in the middle of the game. While neither of these two players have set themselves apart from the other, I've been impressed with how well John Nalbone has blocked. He also has shown improved hands in camp following a very poor showing at OTAs and minicamps earlier in the summer. However, he's still raw and Joey Haynos has been in the system longer. You also can't duplicate Joey's size (6'8, 270). It was believed that this regime really liked Haynos. But why then did the Dolphins spend a fifth round pick on the rookie TE from Monmouth?

A possible solution here could be to keep Haynos on the team and try slipping Nalbone through waivers. After all, he's only a tight end and nobody poaches tight ends. Wrong - the Dolphins did that very thing to Green Bay last year by poaching Haynos off of their practice squad. And about a third of the league worked out Nalbone prior to the draft. If the Dolphins waive him and try to slip him by, they could lose him. On the other hand, Haynos is not eligible for Miami's practice squad. So keeping Nalbone would mean saying goodbye to Haynos.

I expect both of these guys to get a lot of playing time on Thursday night to give the coaches some good film to review on Friday as they make their decision. But you all know me - I'm taking Nalbone here.

QUICK HITS
Now for some quick hits on different roster possibilities:

Play who was once a long shot and is now a virtual lock: Quentin Moses
Did anybody see this coming? Sure, Jason Taylor benefited a lot from Matt Roth's injury because he's now entrenched as the starter. But Moses was expected by many to be out of a job in a few days when camp began. But with solid play both in practice and in games, he's secured his roster spot as the primary backup strong-side linebacker. He's done an excellent job of creating pressure as well as setting the edge. If I'm Matt Roth, I'm expecting a huge "thank you" card from Moses in the coming week.

Possible surprise cut: Charlie Anderson
With Cameron Wake taking over the role of primary reserve pass-rusher, Anderson will see less playing time. And his dumb mistake last week against Tampa on special teams isn't going to help his cause, either. He's got a hefty 2009 price tag and is yet to live up to his contract. While I don't think Anderson will definitely be cut, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him receive a pink slip - especially if he makes any more bonehead plays on Thursday night.

Possible sleeper to make the team: Courtney Bryan
Keeping five safeties is rare. But Bryan is a solid special teams contributor who isn't a total liability in coverage like other teams' backup safeties usually are. He's got good instincts and is a hard worker - the kind of player this regime loves. And you never know...

Dolphins Preseason Review: Who has made the biggest impression?

Matty I — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:15:08 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

Lex Hilliard may have ran himself into a roster spot with two consecutive strong performances.

Browse more photos »

Believe it or not, we are less than three weeks away from week one of the NFL season. Training camp will soon be winding down for the Dolphins and we're halfway through their preseason schedule. So what better time than now to do a mid-point review of what we've seen from the Dolphins in the preseason?

What I've decided to do is simply list which players have made the biggest positive impression on me during the preseason as well as those who have made little or no impression on me - with a special emphasis on those players who are currently on the proverbial "roster bubble." Of course, this list is far from comprehensive, which is where all of you come in. Be sure to tell us your thoughts in the comments below.

THREE WHO HAVE MADE POSITIVE IMPRESSION

RB Lex Hilliard - Entering camp, there wasn't much thought given to the Dolphins keeping four halfbacks on their final 53-man roster. But Lex Hilliard has suddenly put that thought into his coaches' heads and has made a strong case to make this football team. We talked yesterday about the "numbers game" and how keeping four running backs would affect how the final roster is assembled. But this is something the coaching staff is really going to have to discuss. After all, this regime is not in the business of waiving good football players. If Hilliard is as promising as he might be (more as a future complimentary back - not a feature back), you don't just let go of him. His 18 carry, 94 yard stat line is impressive - but it has been produced against opposing teams' 2nd and 3rd string defenses. And if you take away his longest run in each of the two preseason games, Hilliard is averaging just 2.75 yards per carry on those other 16 rushing attempts. But he's shown good quickness and explosion through the hole for a 240 pound back. And Tony Sparano did praise his special teams work in both games. That's how he can cement his roster spot - by going out and proving he can be a special teams contributor on gameday. It'd also be nice to see him get a few carries against a first-team defense.

RG Donald Thomas - The right guard position was a big question mark entering camp. Donald Thomas was coming off of a season-ending foot injury entering the offseason and then injured his chest while working out during the offseason. He started off camp with rehab work and was slowly implemented back into the offensive line rotation. But he has been very impressive when he has been on the field during the preseason. In the opener, despite a lackluster performance by the first-team offensive line as a whole, Thomas had a solid game - regularly "pancaking" his man. Last week, Thomas played even better. He won the majority of his one-on-one blocks and even showed the quickness to get out and pull - making a key block on Hilliard's 39 yard TD run. The man is clearly strong and powerful and, most importantly, he finishes his blocks. The starting right guard spot is officially all his. Now he just needs to stay healthy.

OLB Quentin Moses - Before training camp started, I really didn't think Quentin Moses had any shot to make this final roster. But Matt Roth's mysterious groin injury has allowed Moses to get more reps in practice and extended looks during the preseason. He's made the most of these opportunities. I've noticed Moses getting pressure on the quarterback on more than one occasion. He hasn't picked up a sack yet, but quarterback hurries are just as valuable. I've noticed that the 260 pound linebacker looks to have a quicker first step. And remember, he's a guy with a lot of talent. He was a third-round pick coming out of Georgia. And entering that season for UGA, there were rumblings that Moses could be a late first or early second round selection. But now it seems as though the game is finally slowing down for him - and he's making plays. He looks strong at the point of attack, too, which is very important because it allows him to set the edge on runs his direction (much like Matt Roth was good at doing last season). I don't think his roster spot is a lock by any means, but he went from having little chance (at least in my mind) to being right in the mix for one of the OLB spots.

Other Candidates - Cameron Wake, John Nalbone, Sean Smith, Nathan Jones, Paul Soliai, Reggie Torbor

THREE WHO HAVE MADE LITTLE OR NO IMPRESSION

WR Anthony Armstrong - Many fans were jumping aboard the Anthony Armstrong bandwagon during the offseason as we continually read reports of Armstrong beating Miami's corners deep for big plays during OTAs and minicamp. But the corners he regularly dominated were guys who were either cut (Eric Green) or will be cut (Will Billingsley). During training camp, Armstrong has been relatively quiet. And in the preseason, Armstrong has been completely non-existent. He doesn't have a reception. He's dropped two passes. And in his one kickoff return, he only gained 20 yards. That's not how a player like Armstrong is going to make this team. Considering he can't really contribute on coverage units because he weighs 185 pounds soaking wet, he needed to really make a name for himself as a receiver. But he's failed to do so and I don't expect him to stick once it's time for final cuts.

TE Joey Haynos - With the release of Ernest Wilford, the battle for the third tight end spot (if the Dolphins keep three) is between Haynos and rookie John Nalbone. Haynos, though, has failed to get my attention at all. He has great size (6'8, 270) but hasn't been a factor at all during the preseason. But while no passes have come his way - which isn't exactly his fault, making it hard to blame him - I've been underwhelmed with his blocking skills. From what I've noticed during games, Nalbone is the better blocker. And whichever TE is kept as the third one will have to be able to block - especially since David Martin isn't exactly a reliable blocker, either. In my opinion, Haynos is losing the battle to Nalbone and will have to step up if he hopes to stick.

DE Phillip Merling - Merling entered training camp working as a starter opposite Kendall Langford. But since then, he's fallen back to the second unit while Tony McDaniel and Randy Starks have gotten reps with the first team. And it's been Starks, not Merling, who has gotten the majority of the first-team reps during the preseason. Merling isn't exactly known for being a great practice player, either. But you can almost look beyond that if the player in question performs on gameday. Thus far through two preseason games, I haven't seen any sense of urgency from the second-year defensive end. Last season, Merling came on strong late in the year. So here's to hoping he's just a slow starter.

Other Candidates - Lionel Dotson, Erik Walden, Brandon London, Gibril Wilson, Pat White

Dolphins Depth Chart Bubble Watch, V. 5

Matty I — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 04:15:10 -0000

So we're now halfway through the preseason. And we've already seen the ax drop down for several players. With the recent roster moves by the Dolphins, it seems like a good time to update our "depth chart bubble watch."

The idea behind this is simple - to put together a projected 53-man roster and to highlight which players I feel are on pace to just barely make the team and which just miss the cut. And it's important to note that this is not how I predict the roster will look once the preseason comes to a close. Instead, it's simply a snapshot that examines how Miami's 53-man roster might look if the cuts were to be done at this very moment.

The depth chart and some notes can be found below right after the jump...

	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
QB	Chad Pennington	Chad Henne	Pat White
RB	Ronnie Brown	Ricky Williams	Patrick Cobbs/Lex Hilliard
FB	Lousaka Polite
WR	Ted Ginn	Patrick Turner
WR	Davone Bess	Greg Camarillo	Brian Hartline
TE	Anthony Fasano	David Martin	John Nalbone
LT	Jake Long	Andrew Gardner
LG	Justin Smiley	Brandon Frye
C	Jake Grove	Joe Berger
RG	Donald Thomas	Shawn Murphy
RT	Vernon Carey
	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
DE	Kendall Langford	Tony McDaniel
NT	Jason Ferguson	Paul Soliai
DE	Randy Starks	Phillip Merling	Lionel Dotson
SOLB	Jason Taylor	Quentin Moses	Erik Walden
ILB	Channing Crowder	Reggie Torbor
ILB	Akin Ayodele
WOLB	Joey Porter	Cameron Wake	Charlie Anderson
CB	Will Allen	Vontae Davis	Jason Allen
CB	Sean Smith	Nathan Jones
S	Yeremiah Bell	Chris Clemons
S	Gibril Wilson	Tyrone Culver
	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
K	Dan Carpenter
P	Brandon Fields
LS	John Denney

PUP: Matt Roth
Last 5 On: Jason Allen, Andrew Gardner, John Nalbone, Erik Walden, Lex Hilliard
First 5 Off: Brandon London, Nate Garner, Anthony Armstrong, Courtney Bryan, Joey Thomas
Next 5 Off: Joey Haynos, William Kershaw, Connor Barth, Rod Wright, Louis Ellis

Some quick thoughts:

While I don't think that Lex Hilliard has assured himself a roster spot, things are looking good for the kid. But I think for the Dolphins to keep a fourth halfback, he'll have to prove he can play on special teams. Can he? I'm not too sure. It's hard to tell from the television broadcast. But he's certainly big enough (240 pounds) and I think he'll get every opportunity now to prove he can contribute on special teams.
I know everybody wants to keep six receivers. But I don't know if the "numbers game" will allow for it. The way I see it, the Dolphins will keep 12 players total at the halfback, receiver, and tight end positions. If Hilliard is going to be on this team, then the Dolphins will have to keep either five receivers and three tight ends OR six receivers and two tight ends. But I think that the versatility of Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Patrick Cobbs will be a possible reason the Dolphins keep five receivers. Any of those three could line up split out wide as a receiver. Because of that, keeping six receivers at the expense of a tight end or at the expense of Hilliard seems like an unlikely move.
John Nalbone is an excellent blocking tight end - at least from what I could tell from the first two preseason games. And I think since the Dolphins and Dan Henning like using two tight end sets, I don't see the Dolphins keeping only two tight ends. Right now, Nalbone has outplayed Joey Haynos. He's consistently caught the ball in camp (and in the team scrimmage a few weeks back) and, like I said, has really impressed me with his blocking ability. I'm officially the founder of the John Nalbone bandwagon - hop on while there's still room.
Right now I have the Dolphins keeping six outside linebackers on the active roster. But I could see them keeping only five - making room for either another corner, another inside linebacker, or another defensive linemen. If that's the case, I think the battle for the last roster spot at OLB will come down to Quentin Moses - who has looked surprisingly good - or Erik Walden - the special teams standout who has been quiet on the field in the base defense. As much as I like Walden's contributions on special teams, I think Moses has the leg up - if it comes to that, of course.
Just say "no" to Connor Barth. Dan Carpenter - I trust you! After all, nobody just gets the nickname of DC$ by accident.

Talking the spread, Stafford and successful drafting teams with Football Outsiders

Mocking Dan — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:03 -0000

Every year the brilliant guys from Football Outsiders put out a phonebook-sized almanac packed cover-to-cover with nuggets of solid gold information. Bill Barnwell, managing editor of the book, joins us today to answer some draft-related questions.

Given how popular the scheme has become in college, is there a sound analytical way to evaluate a spread quarterback's future success in the NFL?

You know, at this point, I don't think there is a way to do so strictly with statistics. I really believe that the scouting element needs to be mixed in healthily when you're judging college players, especially with players in those sort of situations and schemes that they're not likely to play in at the pro level.

What's also interesting is that some of the preconceived notions that people had about what does and doesn't work at the pro level are being challenged now. Very few people would've suggested that the Wildcat would have worked in the NFL, let alone enjoyed the amount of success that it has. I don't know if any team would move to a spread offense for a variety of reasons, but hey, if the Chiefs were willing to implement the Pistol, the spread could be next.

How much does the spread skew the Lewin Career Forecast due to generally high completion percentages the scheme produces? (The LCF is used by FO to associate college-to-pro success.)

At this point, not that much; the reason why is because the Lewin Career Forecast only applies to quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds, and there haven't been very many spread quarterbacks with a grade of that caliber. Pat White, I suppose, would be the first example.

The case of Tim Tebow will end up being very interesting; he has great numbers heading into 2009, and if he stays towards the top of the draft and plays a full season, he would be projected to be an elite quarterback. I think he'll end up being the test case for how the spread affects the LCF.

From the Outsiders perspective, which teams have the most and least successful drafting teams and how do you come to that conclusion?

We're still working on refining our metrics for draft success. The tricky thing is that it's hard to define a "successful" draft, because there's no quick-and-dirty way to call a offensive lineman or a linebacker "successful". The metric of choice so far has been games started, but even that's subject to the nature of the teams involved and what holes they have filled.

The metric I play around with is GSAA (Games Started Above Average), which is still a work in progress; the idea is to compare the games started for a player over the course of his career, relative to how many games he was eligible to start, to those of all the players who were taken within 10 picks of him.

A good example would be Tom Brady, who rates out as one of the best draft picks ever by this methodology (realistically, it would be hard to argue that he wasn't the best). GSAA would take Brady, the 199th pick in the 2001 draft, and compare him to every other quarterback that was taken from picks 189 through 209. The pickings are, as you might expect, extremely slim; the only player who really had much of a career after being taken over the same timeframe was Gus Frerotte. So the system would measure how many games Brady started per season, compare it to the average quarterback from that subset of players, and then measure how many games started Brady has above the league average over the course of his career.

We haven't updated GSAA for the '08 season yet (since it doesn't appear in the book and we've spent our time focusing on the content that appears in FOA 09), but since 2001, the best drafting teams in the league were the Ravens, Colts, Bills, Jets and Texans; I think the Texans are a little bit of a reach, because they're an expansion team and have had more holes up and down the lineup to fill with the draft than any other team.

On the flip side, we see the worst drafting teams in the league as the Broncos, Steelers, Lions, Vikings, and Seahawks. I really can't defend a draft metric that suggests that the Steelers are poor drafters, which is one of the many reasons why it's still under development.

Along the same line, is there a college program that has produced the best NFL talent?

Using that same metric, and looking strictly at schools that had 15 or more players drafted from 1995 through 2007, the schools that produced the best talent, pick-for-pick, above league average were Purdue, Hawaii, Cincinnati, Illinois, and Syracuse. A strange group, to say the least. The five worst schools were (in descending order of disappointment) Clemson, USC, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Northwestern.

Is Matthew Stafford being set up for failure in Detroit based on his poor Lewin Career Forecast numbers and the general expectation that comes with being the No. 1?

I think so. It's very interesting that baseball is past the point where a guy can be a high draft pick strictly by having a big arm, but in football, we're not there yet. There's been a pretty clear history of quarterbacks with a huge arm but limited accuracy struggling as pro quarterbacks, and the Lewin Career Forecast sees Stafford being the next in the line of Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and JaMarcus Russell.

The anecdotal argument I've made relates to David Greene, who preceded Stafford in college (short one year of D.J. Shockley) while playing for the same coach in the same scheme. Greene put up superior numbers to Stafford, even after you take out Greene's senior year (which would have presumably been Stafford's best), and washed out of the pro ranks without making any sort of impact. Now, college statistics aren't foolproof or anything close to it, but if you were going to give Matthew Stafford $40+ million in guaranteed money and devote the first overall pick to him, wouldn't you want him to have outperformed David Greene at the college level? I would.

Who are some of your top players for the 2010 NFL Draft and what makes you think so highly of those players?

Ah, see, I can't do that. There's just too much that happens in a year that can dramatically impact a guy's expectations. Think about Quentin Moses or Brian Brohm; or, on the other side, JaMarcus Russell. Projecting player performance is hard enough once you've got their full body of college film available, let alone 60 percent.

I will say that last year, I predicted in September that the Chiefs would take Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick. So I had the right idea. This year, I can't make the same guess. I know who I expect to have the first overall pick at the end of the season -- the Seahawks, who will be drafting first after the Broncos put up the worst record in football. They obviously wouldn't be taking a quarterback, though, so that leaves their pick up in the air.

Thanks to Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders for answering these questions. Make sure to check out the Football Outsiders Almanac this year. In it you'll find a huge NFL preview, great college football knowledge and some draft-related discussion. And, of course, the FO statistical analysis that made them so well-known.

Dolphins Training Camp: Henne's struggles top story of Monday

Matty I — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 04:15:08 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

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Week two of Miami Dolphins training camp began with two practices on Monday and the release of the first "team-released" depth chart. But it was quarterback play that highlighted Monday's action.

CHAD HENNE STRUGGLES
Following a solid, if unspectacular, performance in Saturday's team scrimmage, Chad Henne began week two of training camp with a disappointing day - particularly in the afternoon session on Monday. Henne, who has struggled all camp during one of Tony Sparano's favorite drills - the two-minute offense - had some ugly moments on Monday. Chris Clemons, the rookie safety out of Clemson, picked off Henne twice during Monday afternoon's practice - and nearly intercepted Henne a third time on a pass intended for Ricky Williams in the flat that would have resulted in a pick six for Clemons.

But it was Henne's inability to lead the two-minute offense - a theme of training camp thus far - that the Palm Beach Post provides play-by-play of. Play one, screen pass that is tipped away. Play two, pass broken up by two defenders. Play three, too far outside of intended receiver. Play four, the previously mentioned near pick by Clemons. Henne connects on the next four, though. And the following pass was also reportedly a great throw that Brian Hartline just couldn't come up with as he had Vontae Davis defending him well. And it wrapped up with Vontae Davis breaking up a pass intended for Brandon London.

As the Post points out, too, Henne's performance in the two-minute offense all camp has been unimpressive - with Henne "rarely driving the team into reasonable scoring position." And just for good measure, Henne ended the practice by "missing a wide open Anthony Fasano by a mile in the endzone during goal-line offense." Yikes!

Of course, it's far too early to panic. It's really too early to even think about panicking. But why then did I bring this up? Simple. It's too illustrate the fact that we still don't know what we have in Chad Henne. However, you have to love how Tony Sparano plans to handle this situation. It's tricky. You want to get Henne experience and see what you have in him. At the same time, you can't risk losing the locker room by benching Chad Pennington - a leader on that team and a player coming off of his best career season.

That's why the Dolphins are handling this situation so well. I love the idea of Henne getting most of the playing time in the preseason. It'll give us all a chance to see Henne perform with "semi-live bullets" flying.

With that said, Henne's struggles in the two-minute offense illustrates why Pennington is the starting quarterback of this football team in 2009. CP is efficient. He doesn't have the big arm Henne has. But it's clear that Henne's arm isn't helping him move the ball in simulated two-minute drills during practice. And right now, it's Pennington - not Henne - that gives the 2009 Miami Dolphins the best chance to win. While some of you want to just throw Henne into the starting role without him earning the job just to see him play and possibly prepare him for the future, I'm not ready to give up on the present. CP is the present.

If Henne outplays Pennington at any point during training camp or the preseason, then I'm on board with making a switch ASAP. But that's not going to happen.

RISERS AND FALLERS
We talked yesterday about how week two of training camp is the time Tony Sparano likes to promote and demote players. And as expected, changes were made - headed by the promotion of rookie corner Sean Smith to the starting role opposite Eric Green. Green was sent to the second team to play opposite rookie Vontae Davis. While this is far from a permanent change, it does reward Smith for his solid play through one week of camp and it provides the coaches with a chance to see how Sean performs against better competition. I'd suspect Davis will get a shot at some point during camp as well - even if he has progressed slower than some anticipated.

Randy Starks also saw a promotion, getting his chance to work with the starters on the opposite side of Kendall Langford. Phillip Merling remained with the second unit after getting moved there last week despite beginning camp with the starters. Tony McDaniel dropped back to the second unit after replacing Merling on the first team last week. Look for those three to continue rotating until the coaching staff gets a better feel for those guys.

The other big riser on was Donald Thomas. While Shawn Murphy remained the starter at right guard, Thomas - despite missing most of the OTAs and the early part of camp - was promoted to the second unit as he inches his way back into the starter's role he won as a rookie out of camp last year. Ike Ndukwe was the loser here - and it's starting to look like his days could be numbered if Thomas remains healthy and progresses as we all think he will.

DEPTH CHART RELEASED
Yes, the Dolphins released their first depth chart on Monday. No, it doesn't mean very much. This depth chart is completely irrelevant because the depth chart basically changes day to day. For example, Donald Thomas is listed as the 3rd string RG right now. But he practiced with the second unit on Monday. Cameron Wake is listed as the fourth string weakside linebacker, but has spent most of his time on the second unit in camp.

The release of this depth chart is a reason why I do my weekly "depth chart bubble watch." At this point, it's probably more accurate as to how the coaches see the 53-man roster looking than this team-released chart is.

QUICK HITS
Some quick thoughts on Monday's action:

Chris Clemons has been around the ball a lot recently, according to various reports. Could he cut into Tyrone Culver's role as the team's top reserve safety and find his way onto the field in the team's dime package?
Channing Crowder picked up two sacks in the afternoon session. What's gotten into him? Whatever it is, I hope it says with him. He needs to be a play-maker this year.
Cameron Wake got to work with the first-team defense in the morning replacing Joey Porter (sitting out just for rest) on the weakside. Not surprisingly, Jake Long handled him. But it's good to see the coaches challenging Wake - who has surprised me so far.
Speaking of surprises, Quentin Moses has quietly been putting together a solidd camp. Moses had two sacks and a tipped pass in the afternoon session.
Interesting battle brewing between Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo for the starting job opposite Ted Ginn.
Yeremiah Bell has been reportedly looking much improved in coverage during camp.

UP NEXT
The Dolphins practice only once on Tuesday - beginning at 2 pm. Wednesday will feature two practices, though. And the late session has been moved outside and will begin at 8 pm.

3 Up and 3 Down

Matty I — Thu, 28 May 2009 04:15:10 -0000

Like I said last week, our new offseason Thursday feature will be "3 Up and 3 Down" - where I look at some topic and give three positives and three negatives. With today's organized team activity being open to the media, meaning we'll get another chance to hear about the players, I thought it would be a good idea to talk about how the 53 man roster might shape up.

Last year, the Dolphins got big contributions from two undrafted free agents - Davone Bess and Dan Carpenter. So let's focus on which undrafted free agents could make the biggest splash in 2009. And that will be followed by three players who were on the 53 man roster last season but whose days might be numbered in Miami.

THREE UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS WHO COULD MAKE AN IMPACT

1. Louis Ellis, NT - Measuring in at 6'2, 320 pounds, Ellis has the physical build and the necessary strength to play the nose in Miami's 3-4 defense. Undrafted out of Shaw University, a Division II school, Ellis is strong but also has the agility needed to play the position. However, he's very raw and will need technique work as well as improved conditioning if he wants to become Jason Ferguson's future replacement - a job the Dolphins desperately want to fill by 2010. Click here to check out a scouting report on Ellis from SI.com.

2. Orion Martin, OLB - Martin was a defensive end at Virginia Tech, but at 6'2, 260 pounds, he's the perfect "DE to OLB" conversion player. He's strong and has decent speed. While he tallied 14 sacks and 23.5 tackles for a loss over the past 2 seasons at VT, Martin fits more as a strongside outside linebacker (a la Matt Roth) rather than as a pass rusher. He's a smart player as well, with a good football IQ. The key stat with Martin is how unsuccessful teams were in college at throwing in the direction of Martin when Martin was asked to drop back into coverage - completing just 19% of their passes thrown into Martin's area with a 1.15 yards per attempt.

3. J.D. Quinn, G - Quinn is a guy who has a lot of talent but carries some baggage with him into the NFL. It's been well documented since the Dolphins signed him that Quinn was dismissed from Oklahoma, despite having early success as a Sooner, for accepting money that he didn't earn from a car dealership. He transferred to Montana to finish his college career. But it's pretty clear that Quinn has a less than likeable personality (see this video) and has had problems with alcohol. But you can't deny Quinn's ability to play football and, following the injury to Donald Thomas, Quinn instantly has a chance to make an impression on a new coaching staff. He'll be a player to watch as this offseason progresses.

THREE VETERANS WHOSE DAYS COULD BE NUMBERED

1. Quentin Moses, OLB - Moses will be entering his third season in the NFL and he has yet to show any kind of reason as to why he should remain in the NFL. Last season, Moses was active for 12 games - mostly as a special teamer - and recorded three tackles. With the return of Jason Taylor, the successful conversion to OLB by Matt Roth, and the additions Orion Martin and Tearrius George, there isn't really much room on the roster for a guy like Moses.

2. Jason Allen, CB - Allen is entering his fourth season in the NFL and it's getting very close to the time (if it isn't the time already) to being able to call Jason a 100% bust. This is definitely Allen's final chance to prove himself to Miami's coaching staff. With the free agent signing of Eric Green and the drafting of Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, it's clear that Allen's role in 2009 will be limited even if he remains on the roster. He'll likely be battling with guys like Nate Jones and Joey Thomas for the 5th corner spot. The Dolphins could potentially keep six corners - especially if they can made contributions on special teams. But one thing is certain about Allen right now - he's clearly on the roster bubble as training camp approaches.

3. Rodrique Wright, DE - Wright is entering his fourth season with the Dolphins and will be a free agent following the season. He missed all of the '06 season recovering form a shoulder injury he suffered in college. Last year, Wright was inactive for all 16 games, but was active for the playoff game against Baltimore. Whatever happens to Randy Starks could play a role in Wright's future in Miami, but this Dolphins regime has brought in a number of defensive ends over the past two offseasons - including Kendall Langford, Phillip Merling, Lionel Dotson, and Tony McDaniel - which could make it tough for Wright to keep his roster spot.

Recent Draft History: Oakland Raiders

Jeremy Bolander — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 20:00:11 -0000

2008 Draft:

1 (4) Darren McFadden, RB STARTER

No one doubts his talent, but better backs have faltered with fewer problems. McFadden spent he season never quite getting on track with various injuries, including the dreaded turftoe, which is the bane of speedsters everywhere. He will likely benefit from the new coaching regime in Oakland, and is a huge part of helping QB Russell develop.

4 (100) Tyvon Branch, CB STARTER

Multiple injuries put the kid on reserve, but in his short time starting, he made Michael Huff expendable. A key component going forward.

4 (125) Arman Shields, WR Backup

After missing most of offseason practices with a bum knee, he was finally IRed and missed the entire season. He'll get a chance to prove himself all over again in 09.

6 (169) Trevor Scott, DE Backup

As a rotational starter this late pick showed the kind of workethic that could elevate him to a star. WIth 5 sacks in only limited reps he looks to be a key piece moving forward, but his slight frame and lower weight than ideal for the position may cap his ceiling at exceptional backup, or roleplayer.

7 (226) Chaz Schilens, WR Backup

Another solid late round pick, injuries hampered him, but whne he was given opportunities, this big WR managed to make Russell's life a lot easier. A big third down target, Schilens could have a possession role for the rest of his career and thrive.

2007 Draft:

1 (1) JaMarcus Russel, QB STARTER

While his development may not be going at ludicrous speed, lost in all of that he is still the youngest QB in the league, who was drafted on upside. With his arm, he has the ability to get out of any predicament, but he still needs to get the nuances of NFL QBing under his belt. Development, development, development is the word with Russell. he can't be asked to dumb his game down with dink and dunk Flacco-style playcalling, or he will never see his full potential. The Raiders knew they would have some growing pains with this QB, and more important than laboring over every little flaw in his game, is the addressing of the offensive line to give him the opportunity to continue to grow.

2 (38) Zach Miller, TE STARTER

By far the most potent and consistent weapon on the offense, Miller will only get better as the team upgrades around him. Tough, no-nonsense, and a willing and capable blocker make Miller one fo the top finds for Oakland in this draft.

3 (68) Quentin Moses, DE Backup/Miami

Moses made no impact for Oakland, and was shipped out before the 2008 season. In Miami he has been injured and deactivated.

3 (91) Mario Henderson, OT STARTER

Henderson has been a huge part of Russell's development, and looks to continue to be so. With his ability to shift to RT, it will give the Raider's plenty of options in the draft.

3 (99) Johnnie Lee higgins, WR STARTER

One of the few Raiders WRs who isn't mired in personal problems, Higgins is their most legitimate threat at the position. He is better served in the #2 role however, so the Raiders will be hoping someone else steps up and allows Higgins to slip back into a less central role.

4 (100) Michael Bush, RB Backup

After failing to be activated in his rookie year, his development was even further delayed under oustered coach, Kiffin. When he can get into a game, he tends to have a dramatic effect, and his bruising style should be jsut what the 2009 Raiders are looking for. He has the potential to be a "breakout" player, just from being used consistently and correctly.

4 (110) John Bowie, CB Backup

After playing the role of weekly inactive his first season, his second season was over before it started with a trip to IR. Bowie will be retained for depth reason, but should be jettisonned once the team clears the high water mark in this rebuilding phase.

5 (138) Jay Richardson, DE Backup

Richardson has stepped in adequately the last two years in the event o fiinjury, and has a good, teamfirst attitude. he will likely serve a depth role for a while with Oakland, and has just enough potential to not be written off in the future as a player who could deliver some impact.

5 (165) Eric Frampton, S backup/Vikings

After failing to turn heads in Oakland, the Vikings poached Frampton and struggled to get him on teh field, deactivating him initally for depth reasons,a nd eventually for injury reasons. his future looks pretty uncertain.

6 (175) Oren O'neal, FB Backup

After an inconsistent rookie year, injuries reared again in 2008 and cost him the whole season. His rehab has been reported as going well, and he expects to be ready for 2009.

7 Jonathan Holland, WR Backup

After being waived with an injury settlement as a rookie, Holland was brought back to the practice squad in 08, and eventually promoted to teh active roster. He will be in the mix for reliable receiver depth in the 09 training camp.

2006 Draft:

1 (7) Michael Huff, S STARTER

Though the team was expected to let Huff go, the loss of Wilson in FA forced their hand. This highly touted prospect is essentially down to his last chance. If he fails to improve by leaps and bounds in his fourth year, there is no chance he even makes it through the whole season.

2 (38) Thomas Howard, LB STARTER

Howard has developed into a young stud, and has prompted comparisons to all time greats at the position. He is definitely an anchor that the team can rely on, and is a devestating force in the middle. 2008 seemed to expose some flaws in his coverage, but he will probably rebound from that in 09, along with the rest of the defense.

3 (69) Paul McQuistan, G backup

With Jake Grove leaving in free agency, the interior of the line should see some shifting to go along witht eh shifting on the ends. McQuistan is one of the bigger more powerful guards, but he will have a tough battle with icumbent Cooper Carlisle, who has done a good job and held his own.

4 (101) Darnell Bing, LB Backup/Detroit

After failing at LB in oakland, the 49ers picked him up and tried hima t safety, followed by an experiment witht he Jets, and finally an inactive roster spot on the Lions.

7 (214) Chris Morris, C Backup

Morris has amounted to little more than safe depth at the center position. As a value at #3, it is unlikely that the Raiders will part with him anytime soon, especially with the loss of a free agent C.

7 (255) Larry McMahan, WR Out of NFL

McMahan disappeared sometime during the 2006 training camp,a nd was never seen nor heard froma again...