SB Nation - Kenton Keith

From Faulk to Brown, consistency, explosiveness, power and ball security in the Colts running game

shake n bake — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:21:46 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

4 months ago: Indianapolis Colts running back Donald Brown, left, takes the handoff from quarterback Jim Sorgi during the NFL team's football training camp in Terre Haute, Ind., Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2009. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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The running game is the heart of smashmouth, "caveman" football. All about being bigger, stronger and faster than the guy across from you. The way running games are measure tends to reflect this in it's simplicity, but that doesn't mean there aren't more nuanced ways for a scrawny statgeek to look at the run game.

Raw totals are the crudest measure of a run game and have obvious flaws. I'd rather have 80 yards on 16 carries than 100 yards on 30.

Reading the statement above I feel safe in saying everyone did a quick rough calculation in their head, yards per carry. YPC is much better than totals. Even the most hardnosed "pound the ball" advocates don't think that running a lot, inefficiently, wins you football games. But YPC has it's flaws and doesn't tell you anything beyond how good a running game was. Breaking it down into component parts can correct some YPC flaws and tell you in numbers what a running game will play look like.

Consistency, A runner that got 3 yards on every carry would be the greastest offensive weapon in history. Like the hypothetical baseball lineup with a 1.000 OBP that scores infinite runs, a 3 yard every carry running game would never fail to get a new set of downs. Yards per carry is skewed by long runs. 4, 5, 5, 4, 5, 4, is a better set of results than 1, 0, -1, 0, 1, 35. The second runner put his team in bad situations 5 of 6 times, while runner one gave his team 6 very very good chances at a new set of downs. Both averaged 4.5 YPC. FO's success rate gives a good measure of consistency. A play is marked a success if;

In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.

If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.

If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

Explosiveness, Something we haven't seen much in Indy recently. Everyone digs the long run. Measured in % of runs going 10+ yards (from FO), 20+ yard runs, and 40+ yard runs (both from NFL.com).

Power, Here is the heart of "Caveman" football. A couple yards in a do or die situation. I'll use FO's Power success which counts 3rd and 4th downs with 2 or less yards to go, and all "goal to go" runs inside the 2.

A fourth often overlooked aspect of running games is ball security. Fumbles hurt. Some backs fumble more often than others. Ignoring fumbles while looking at RBs makes about as much sense as ignoring INTs looking at QBs.

Jump for the last 15 years of Colts running game in consistency, explosiveness and power

Table Notes: Back A is the back with the highest % of the carries, back B is any other back with over 25% of the carries, rank in parenthesis next to each stat, fumbles ranked from least to most. Success rate is only given by FO for individual players, so listed number is of the lead back with rank out of all backs with 100+ carries (between 38 to 49 of them depending on the year.)

					Consistency	\|--------------	Explosiveness	-------------\|	Power	Ball Security
Year	Back A	Back B	Total	YPC	Success Rate	10+ run%	20+ runs	40+ runs	Pwr Success	Fumbles
1994	Marshall Faulk	None	2060 (4th)	4.2 (3rd)	Unavailable	Unavailable	20 (1st)	4 (2nd)	Unavailable	11 (22nd)
1995	Marshall Faulk	None	1855 (11th)	3.9 (16th)	47% (24th)	Unavailable	12 (5th)	2 (6th)	Unavailable	12 (23rd)
1996	Marshall Faulk	None	1448 (28th)	3.4 (23rd)	41% (33rd)	15% (15th)	6 (18th)	2 (9th)	53% (25th)	10 (13th)
1997	Marshall Faulk	None	1727 (17th)	3.8 (16th)	48% (14th)	16% (13th)	9 (11th)	1 (14th)	52% (27th)	11 (19th)
1998	Marshall Faulk	None	1486 (26th)	3.9 (17th)	44% (23rd)	19% (11th)	5 (27th)	3 (6th)	52% (24th)	4 (1st)
1999	Edgerrin James	None	1660 (19th)	4.0 (16th)	44% (17th)	23% (6th)	9 (17th)	4 (3rd)	61% (14th)	11 (20th)
2000	Edge James	None	1859 (16th)	4.3 (9th)	55% (2nd)	14% (24th)	9 (18th)	0 (25th)	79% (1st)	7 (6th)
2001	Dom Rhodes	Edge James	1966 (7th)	4.5 (4th)	48% (8th)	21% (9th)	12 (11th)	2 (7th)	63% (17th)	10 (13th)
2002	Edge James	None	1561 (26th)	3.6 (29th)	45% (23rd)	12% (29th)	6 (28th)	1 (18th)	57% (26th)	5 (5th)
2003	Edge James	None	1695 (19th)	3.7 (26th)	51% (7th)	11% (30th)	5 (28th)	1 (17th)	51% (30th)	11 (23rd)
2004	Edge James	None	1852 (15th)	4.3 (11th)	57% (3rd)	15% (27th)	7 (24th)	2 (10th)	46% (32nd)	9 (16th)
2005	Edge James	None	1703 (16th)	3.7 (24th)	62% (1st)	9% (32nd)	6 (24th)	0 (26th)	54% (29th)	4 (4th)
2006	Joseph Addai	Dom Rhodes	1762 (18th)	4.0 (16th)	62% (1st)	10% (28th)	3 (30th)	1 (14th)	60% (22nd)	4 (1st)
2007	Joe Addai	Kenton Keith	1706 (18th)	3.8 (22nd)	54% (6th)	9% (31st)	4 (30th)	0 (28th)	78% (1st)	1 (1st)
2008	Joe Addai	Dom Rhodes	1274 (31st)	3.4 (32nd)	48% (14th)	9% (22nd)	5 (31st)	0 (28th)	62% (21st)	4 (2nd)

The Colts running game went through a transformation. From 1994 to 2001 the Colts run game was explosive, inconsistent, and a bit fumble prone. In 2002 a post injury Edge James was really only good at holding onto the football. Over the past 6 seasons the Colts have been the miror image, a total lack of explosiveness, but excellent consistency and rarely fumbles.

Why have the Colts owned the 3rd down conversion% for years? Well first off, Peyton Manning, but in addition, the running game has put the offense in managable 3rd down situations.

The Colts appear to have traded explosiveness for consistency and ball security, but the story seems to be the same all the way through when it comes to power. The Colts have finished in the top half of the league in power success just 3 times in the last 13 years (but 2 of those times they did finish 1st). Even before the Colts became the Colts that we know and love today (Bill Polian, Peyton Manning, Tom Moore, Tony Dungy, Edge James) they weren't a good power team.

Now Donald Brown is added to the mix. In college Brown had home run ability. We might see a reversal of the trend and see an explosive running game for the first time since Edge blew out his knee. Though hopefully with that explosiveness they will stay consistent and have very good ball security. We might even see some power again.

Luke Links: Remembering Steve McNair

BigBlueShoe — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:17:38 -0000

More photos » by MARK HUMPHREY - AP

5 months ago: FILE - In this Sept. 19, 2004 file photo,Tennessee Titans quarterback Steve McNair (9) and Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (18), meet on the field after their game in Nashville, Tenn. McNair, the co-NFL MVP of 2003 with Manning, who led the Tennessee Titans within a yard of forcing overtime in the 2000 Superbowl and led the Baltimore Ravens to the playoffs, has been shot and killed on Saturday, July 4, 2009. Nashville police spokesman Don Aaron confirmed that police were called to a residence and found McNair and a woman shot to death inside. Aaron said authorities don't yet know the circumstances of the shooting. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

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For much of this week we will see and read more details about the tragic death of former-Titans and Ravens QB Steve McNair. Some of those details could be shocking or perhaps scandalous. Or, hopefully, the facts will reveal in greater detail what we already know; that this was a terrible tragedy. One thing that might also get discussed is Steve McNair's overall legacy as a football player. In some cases, his career might get overblown or romanticized because... well, that's what we do to cope with loss. At the present, I see nothing wrong with that. After a time, we'll be able to properly discuss McNair's legacy as a QB.

Right now, we just mourn his and his girlfriend's untimely passing.

The Big Lead speculates on who killed McNair. Currently, it is not a foregone conclusion that it was a murder-suicide, with McNair's 20-year-old girlfriend pulling the trigger.
Reggie Hayes writes a wonderful article about how Steve McNair helped motivate Peyton Manning. Very nice article.
Old article from The Sporting News discussing the 2003 co-MVPs: Peyton Manning and Steve McNair.
Mike Lupica does what Mike Lupica always does: Spew stupid crap in the vain attempt to appear interesting or comelling. Lupica's writing, along with his personality, is crass and self-important. Link from MCM.
Speaking of MCM, they have more details about McNair's death.
Clint Session is in the best shape of his life, or so he says. Moving Session to WILL linebacker is an excellent decision on Caldwell and Coyer's part. Session is a vicious hitter who seems more comfortable in coverage than Freddy Keiaho was.
Pro Football Weekly has a new blog about non-NFL football leagues, including the CFL. I watched the Rough Riders play the Lions this past weekend. It is so weird watching a football game where the receivers can get a ten yeard running start behind the line of scrimmage. I did not see Kenton Keith play.
God, I miss football. Less than a month to camp folks! Less than a month!

Luke Links: The annoyance with another Colts blog edition

BigBlueShoe — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:58:24 -0000

I hope everyone enjoyed last night's little podcast, which (truth be told) was little more than a glorified test of Blog Talk Radio's features. I hadn't touched the site in over two years and needed a little test drive before I start making higher quality podcasts. And a special thank you to Indy Lori for the kind words about my radio voice. I must admit, i come in a distant second to JasonB, who has the best radio voice of anyone at SB Nation. Listen to his podcasts (which are the best of any SB Nation podcasts, period) and you'll know I'm speaking the truth.

Now, onto the good stuff (and today, it will truly gooooooood):

Second year DE Marcus Howard expects to make more of an impact in 2009. In limited play, Howard was impressive last year. Seeing as Indy only has five DEs on the roster, that indicates to me that Caldwell and Polian are very confident Howard and Curtis Johnson can step in should Dwight or Robert get hurt.
Speaking of Dwight Freeney, he has a rather impressive workout routine, which is a combination of martial arts and weight training. Note to self: Never get in a fight with Dwight Freeney.
Stayign with defense, lefpsydhas a FanPost up talking about a nice article on new starting LBer Philip Wheeler.
So, it seems 18 to 88 didn't like our bashing of the Indianapolis Star and their horrid coverage of the Colts. Apparently, it is "classless" on our part to demand the Star (a major metropolitan newspaper) provide the same coverage of the Colts (12-4 last year, best QB in football) that the Green Bay Press-Gazette (smaller city, smaller paper) provides to the Green Bay Packers (6-10 last year, no Brett Favre). At 18 to 88, such demands are "classless" and "unfair." Part of the reason 18 to 88 thinks this is because to them "off-season chatter" is not enjoyable. This is, of course, regrettable seeing as 18 to 88 is a (supposed) dedicated Colts blog and almost 75% of a team's calendar year is spent in the off-season. Maybe that's why almost half of 18 to 88's content has nothing to do with the Colts. No offense, but no one really cares what 18 to 88 thinks about racing, soccer, or the completely irrelevant Cincinnati Reds. They either need to re-brand the site as a general Indiana sports site, or stop wasting our time with content we don't care about. Love those dudes to death, but if they have this kind of negative attitude towards off-season coverage of the Colts, it sends a clear message to readers that for eight of the twelve months in a year people should ignore 18 to 88.
It's now been 20 days since the Star wrote an article on the Colts. The Green Bay Press-Gazette (Gannett-owned, just like the Star) posted a Packers article two days ago. They also did a live-chat with one of their writers recently; a weekly occurrence during the off-season. Yep, the Star pretty much still sucks.
Another Austin Collie article from out west. He's a popular guy out there, it seems.
Yahoo and National Football Post thinks Bob Sanders is the key impact player for the Colts in 2009. I agree, he is one of many key players, but not the key. Sadly, writer Matt Bowen doesn't know what he's talking about when he elaborates:
I’m picking Sanders for the Colts because when he isn’t on the field, their defense suffers.
...

If he plays an entire season, the Colts will compete for the division title.

Um, Bob Sanders hardly played at all last year, and the Colts still very much competed for their division. They would have won the division if Peyton Manning hadn't started the season playing on one leg. Matt Bowen would know this if Matt Bowen actually watched Colts football games. He'd know that Melvin Bullitt more than filled in for Bob last year.
Nice chat with DT Eric Foster, the Colts most under-rated player (and possibly the toughest). The kid was a rookie last season playing all his games as the starting nose tackle while weighing only 270 pounds. Tough, tough player out of Rutgers.
FOOTBALL IS BACK... in Canada. The CFL opened their season yesterday. The Saskatchewan Rough Riders (and their best running back, Kenton Keith) open their season tomorrow. Another CFL-Colts connection involves the CFL's champions last year: The Calgary Stampeders. The head coach of the Stampeders, John Hufnagel, used to be Indy's QB coach back in 2001. He was replaced by Jim Caldwell in 2002.

Now, before I close up the Luke Links for this week, let me state that I love 18 to 88 and I enjoy reading their stuff. My annoyance with their latest post and their choice of content stems from my desire (as a loyal 18 to 88 reader) to read more of their opinions about some of the very subjects they seem to loath covering; chief among those subjects is the Colts in the off-season. Supposed "hand-wringing" over the roster, analysis of players, opinions on this and that while games are not getting played... that is what NFL blogging is. One of the major reasons people reads blogs at all is because they are willing to talk about this kind of stuff while newspapers (like the Star) take two month vacations and sit on their hands.

If 18 to 88 truly dislikes off-season blogging, then what the hell are they doing covering the Colts? As stated earlier, 75% of a Colts blogger's job is writing about the off-season.

So, I'm not ranting here because I hate those guys, think they suck, or feel we Colts fans should ignore the site. Far from it. My annoyance is with their assumption that when supposedly "nothing" is happening, nothing should be covered.

Um, no. There is no real "off-season" in football anymore.

If fans aren't talking about the draft or free agency during the off-season, they're talking about who will win what job and how well they'll do at that job. They're talking scheme changes, coaching changes, and player changes. They're talking rookies, free agents, and veterans.

That is Colts blogging.

If that doesn't appeal to 18 to 88, then they really should blog about something else (general Indiana or Midwest sports, maybe). If not, their site title and description are misleading, and (as an avid 18 to 88 reader) it annoys me that one of the only reasons I'd ever go to 18 to 88 (analysis of the Colts during the off-season) is something the writers there say they don't like doing. I hope they change their mind and start re-focusing more on the central subject of their blog. They've lost their way a little bit, in this reader's opinion.