SB Nation - Thomas Clayton

2009 Statistical Rankings: 49er Players Through Week 2

Florida Danny — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:00:54 -0000

On Wednesday, we here at Niners Nation (NN) introduced a new weekly post presenting Football Outsiders' (FO) team rankings according to defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Hope you enjoyed it, and hope you continue to read it for the next 15 (or more?) weeks. It turns out that FO also publishes player DVOA stats, as well as advanced stats measuring the performance of each team's OL, DEF front seven, and secondary. These stats are what I'll be presenting today, and will continue to present each Thursday or Friday during the regular season (and playoffs?).

If you don't know what DVOA is or how to interpret it, consult Wednesday's post. It's got my English-language answers for these relatively complicated questions. For today's post, and beware it's a long one, I'll be explaining FO's player stats as I present them.

After the jump, I'll discuss the player stats for the 49ers' QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, OL, DL, and DBs...

Before I begin, I just want to alert everyone to something that I'm sure would come up in the comments were I not to address it in the article. Basically, I'm only going to present stats for individual 49ers that have enough passes (15), carries (16), or targets (6 for WR, 3 for TE) to qualify for FO's most valid individual statistics, DVOA and DYAR. Below the relevant "yardage opportunity" thresholds, these statistics can be wildly erratic from week to week, and - frankly - aren't as trustworthy or enlightening as I'd like them to be. Let me make clear though that this would be my opinion about any statistic, as all statistics are negatively impacted by extremely small sample size. Furthermore, I'd still take FO's small-sample stats over the popular NFL stats because, although both may be flawed when sample size is low, at least FO's stats are adjusted for opponent (after Week 3), game situation, and other important factors.

With that said, it's on to the stats and rankings...

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Shaun Hill's stats through 2 games (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

DYAR	Rank	Passes	Actual Pass Yards	Yds Per Pass	Rank
-20	31	65	296	4.55	32
DVOA	Rank		EYds	EYds Per Pass	Rank
-16.5%	30		278	4.28	31

Before I discuss this table, let me explain what Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Effective Yards (EYds) mean. I've done this before on NN, but I'll do it again for the sake of clarification and NN newbie introduction.

For DYAR, FO first determined - via statistical analysis of NFL historical data - a "replacement level" of performance for each position that represents the number of yards an average NFL "backup" gains at that position. DYAR compares a player's yardage total to this "replacement level," and, as such, represents the difference between a player's yardage total and the yardage total that would be expected if he was replaced by an average backup at his position. In other words, DYAR answers the question that's often thrown around when it's time to argue about the MVP, "What would happen to Team X's offense if Player A got hurt and was replaced by Player B, who's an average backup?" In this sense, DYAR is a measure of a player's value to his team's offense, with positive numbers meaning his offense would be worse off yardage-wise without him. Now, obviously some backups are not average at all (See Sproles, Darren), so I'm using the MVP analogy in the name of education, not exact methodological precision. The purpose of DYAR is to compare players at the same position in a statistically valid way, not to settle the MVP debate. Therefore, it's important to realize that FO's use of a replacement level - something that's also done in sabermetrics - is aimed at creating a trustworthy statistic (by standardizing, and providing a baseline for starter performance) rather than providing fodder for sports talk radio.

For EYds, FO simply adjusts each players yardage totals based on the same factors for which it adjusts their DVOA statistic (i.e., opponent, game situation, etc.). In other words, EYds is basically DVOA without the whole "play success" determination that I described on Wednesday. This is intuitive because both are grounded in the concept that some yards (e.g., rushing yards on 3^rd and 20 against DET) are easier to gain than others (e.g., rushing yards on 3^rd and 2 against PIT), and therefore that high-difficulty yards should be worth more (i.e., are more efficient) than low-difficulty yards. Because this has the effect of standardizing (aka evening out) game situations for all players at the same position, EYds tells you how many yards a player would be expected to have if he played in average game situations. When a player's EYds is higher than his actual yards, it means that (a) he's been playing in game situations that are more difficult than average, and (b) he's actually been more efficient than his actual yards would seem to suggest. In contrast, the opposite is true when EYds is lower than actual yards.

Just to make EYds as clear as possible, here's a quick example:

Thomas Jones runs for 10 yards on 3^rd and 1 against TEN this week, while Willis McGahee runs for 10 yards on 3^rd and 10 against CLE this week. Both Jones and McGahee ended up with 10 rushing yards according to the NFL. However, we all know that Jones' 10 yards were more valuable than McGahee's because TEN is the top-ranked run DEF, whereas CLE is the 31^st-ranked run DEF. Now, let's say that, on 3^rd and 1, TEN's run DEF is 25% better than average (i.e., each rushing yard on 3^rd and 1 against TEN's DEF is worth 125%), whereas CLE's run DEF is 25% worse than average (i.e., each rushing yard on 3^rd and 1 against CLE's DEF is worth 75%).

Given these defensive situational stats, Jones' 10-yard run would have been expected to go 12.5 yards against an average run DEF (10 x 12.5 = 12.5), while McGahee's run would have been expected to go 7.5 yards (10 x .75 = 7.5). In other words, Jones' EYds for his run was 12.5, whereas McGahee's EYds for his run was 7.5. Therefore, the fact that Jones' EYds (12.5) is higher than his actual yards (10) accurately shows that (a) Jones' run was in a more difficult game situation, and (b) Jones was more efficient than McGahee. Notice also how going only by actual yards, which is what the NFL provides and pundits always refer to, our conclusion about which RB is better would have incorrectly been, "they're equals." This is precisely the major benefit of relying on EYds instead of actual yards.

OK, enough with the statistics lessons...

By any valid measure, Hill's value and effectiveness through 2 games compares pretty unfavorably to the other starting NFL QBs. With respect to his DYAR, the 49ers' pass OFF would actually be 20 yards better through 2 games if he had been replaced with an average NFL backup. Unfortunately, the Niners don't appear to have an average NFL backup on their roster, at least that's what I think. The kicker is that, even if you consider Alex Smith to be an average backup, Hill's DYAR suggests an improvement of only 20 yards were Smith to be elevated to the starting lineup. And one more thing about Hill's DYAR just to drive the point home: The only starting QBs that are less valuable (i.e., have a lower DYAR) than Hill so far this year are Brady Quinn (aka "1 TD guy"), Jake Delhomme (aka "6 turnovers guy), and Matt Stafford (aka "8 days on the job" guy). That's quite impressive company, indeed.

With respect to EYds, Hill's are lower than his actual passing yards, which means that his meager production has unfortunately come in situations easier than average. Furthermore, if we compare Hill to a starter who has similar actual passing yards through 2 games, we find that he's actually been less effective than - gasp - Marc Bulger, who has 66 more EYds than actual passing yards (355 vs. 289).

Of course, all of the above stats are affected by the fact that Jimmy Raye is not Sean Payton and Isaac Bruce is not Marques Colston. In other words, SF's OFF doesn't require much in the way of passing yardage, and SF's WRs aren't exactly Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens when it comes to yards after catch.

The latter factor is something we can't really account for, but the former is accounted for by the per-pass stats in the table. As you can see, Hill has thrown for 4.55 yards per pass, which is pretty abysmal when you consider that the average is 6.25 among the 35 QBs with 15 passes or more. What's worse though is Hill's 4.28 EYds per pass, which is over 30% lower than the qualified-QB average. Not to mention that the #1 QB, Drew Brees, has an EYds/Pass that's triple that of Hill's (12.83).

RUNNING BACKS

Among Niner RBs, only Frank Gore qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 14 runs). Here they are:

DYAR	Rank	Runs	Actual Run Yards	Yds Per Run	Rank
24	13	38	237	6.24	5
DVOA	Rank		EYds	EYds Per Run	Rank
7.6%	15		169	4.45	17

Looking at DYAR, Gore has been more valuable than all but 12 RBs, the most valuable of which has been Marion Barber (DYAR = 75). If we translate Gore's DYAR into DYAR per run, we see that replacing him with an average backup would cost the Niners' run OFF over half of a yard per carry. Of course, the question is whether or not Glen Coffee is an average backup. Based on the preseason, you'd think he's above average. However, because (a) preseason stats don't mean anything (See Clayton, Thomas; sorry Ninjames), and (b) he's a rookie, you can't be so sure of that above-average status.

Regarding EYds, Gore's are considerably lower than his actual run yards, which means that his production has come in easier-than-average situations. I have a sneaking suspicion that this is due to his pair of 80-yard TDs against the Seahawks, which both came in a relatively easy running situation (1^st & 10 with the Niners up 3 points). I can't know this for certain though because I'm not privy to the situation-specific NFL averages that FO uses to determine whether the difficulty of a particular game situation. However, it's interesting to note that the RB immediately ahead of Gore in actual run yards, Chris Johnson with 254, also seems to have had his EYds (145) take a massive hit thanks to 2 long TD runs in Week 2, albeit in (intuitively) easier game situations. Specifically, Johnson's 57-yard TD run came on 3^rd & 19 with the score tied at 0, and his 91-yard TD run came on 3^rd & 10 with the score tied at 24. Running the ball on 3^rd & Long with the score tied against HOU's run DEF sure seems like about as easy a game situation as you can get to run the ball. Although this is most likely why his yards-to-EYds difference is even larger than Gore's, I still think both of their differences are due in major part to the length of their TD runs because, subtracting 25%, for example, from an 80-yard "easy" run (or 20 yards) does much more damage to a RB's EYds than subtracting 25% from a 20-yard "easy" run (or 5 yards); 15 more yards of damage to be exact.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Among Niner WRs - and this shouldn't surprise you - only Isaac Bruce qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 5 targets). Incidentally, you should know that, for WRs and TEs, FO analyzes all plays in which a player was the intended receiver of a pass, not just the passes he actually catches. For your convenience, I've included "Catch Rate" in the table, which is simply Receptions divided by Targets. OK, here are Bruce's stats:

DYAR	Rank	Targets	Actual Rec Yards	Yds Per Target	Rank
-2	55	16	109	6.81	46
DVOA	Rank	Catch Rate	EYds	EYds Per Target	Rank
-14.3%	55	50.0%	99	6.19	54

According to DYAR, Bruce could be replaced by an average backup and the 49ers wouldn't lose much in the way of receiving yards. Unlike the situation with Gore, the 49ers likely do have an average backup or two on their roster. The question becomes, "Does Bruce's experience, leadership, and rapport with Hill make him more valuable than the average WR backup with which you'd replace him; say Brandon Jones or - gasp - a signed Michael Crabtree?" At this point, I'd say the answer is probably, "Yes, Bruce is more valuable right now."

I think the take home message of this table is that the 49ers' pass OFF doesn't have a #1 WR. Alternatively, you might say that anyone who thinks the 49ers have a #1 WR is sorely mistaken - at least through 2 games. I say this because Bruce, the Niners' nominal #1 WR, actually ranks as a middle-of-the-pack #2 WR according to every stat in the table. Now, as was the case with Hill, he's being affected by Raye's offensive philosophy. As evidence for this Raye effect, I'll echo something Mike Sando reported recently: Only twice has Raye been the offensive coordinator (OC) of a 1,000-yard WR, and only twice has one of his WRs had 65 catches or more. Interestingly enough, Bruce is on pace for a 64-catch, 872-yard season. Coincidence? I think not.

TIGHT ENDS

Among Niner TEs, only Vernon Davis qualifies for the most valid FO stats through 2 games (> 2 targets). Here they are:

DYAR	Rank	Targets	Actual Rec Yards	Yds Per Target	Rank
0	31	13	72	5.54	34
DVOA	Rank	Catch Rate	EYds	EYds Per Target	Rank
-7.7%	31	53.8%	61	4.69	32

All hail your 49ers' 2006 1^st-round pick! The 31^st-most valuable TE in a 32-team league! Seriously, though, there are two OFF positions that were poised to benefit when Raye replaced Mike Martz as OC: RB and TE. After all, Tony Gonzalez made his bones when Raye was in KC. Not to mention the fact that Martz had the perennial nobodies like Jeff Robinson, Roland Williams, Ernie Conwell, Brandon Manumaleuna, and Dan Campbell manning the TE position during his tenures in STL and DET. And yet, VD's 2-game "renaissance" consists of vaulting from 37^th in DYAR last year to 31^st this year.

To be fair, ARI and SEA have two of the better sets of LBs and Ss in the NFL, so it might be the case that VD's stats will improve when FO incorporates opponent adjustments after Week 3. Maybe, maybe not; we'll just have to wait and see. I wouldn't hold my breath though. The bottom line is that the 49ers have a seemingly above-average backup in Delanie Walker, so they might actually benefit from starting him over VD. Whatever the case may be, it's getting awfully close to "fish or cut bait" time for the guy in the fuchsia shirt.

Here he is soliciting your vote for the poll:

via blogs.orlandosentinel.com

OFFENSIVE LINE

For the sake of brevity, I'm not going to explain FO's methodology behind their stats for OLs and DEF front sevens. You can find their thorough explanation here. Rather, I'll just tell you that, in the next table, the following stats, are interpreted in the following ways:

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) - Run yards per RB carry (up to 10 per carry) that are attributable to the OL. This is a measure of OL run-blocking performance, with higher numbers meaning better OL play.
Power Success Rate - % of runs that are successful on 3^rd/4^th Down & 2 or Less (i.e., ones that result in a 1^st down or TD). This is another measure of OL run-blocking performance, with higher %s meaning better OL play.
Stuffed Rate - % of RB carries that gain 0 or negative yardage. This is another measure of OL run-blocking performance, with lower %s meaning better OL play.
Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR) - Sacks per pass attempt. This is a measure of OL pass-blocking performance, with lower %s meaning better OL play.

Each of these stats has been adjusted for game situation, with all stats except ASR also having been adjusted for OFF formation because some formations produce more OL-reliant rushing yards than others. As with other FO stats I've presented over the past 2 days, opponent adjustments won't kick in until after Week 3. OK, here are the 49ers' OL stats through 2 games:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
2.51	31	50.0%	25	10.0%	29
Actual Yds Per RB Carry	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
5.20	5	24.0%	23	12.1%	30

Let's start with pass-blocking. Yeah, not so good. According to their actual sack rate, Hill is getting sacked about once every 8 times he drops back to pass; good (bad?) for 30^th in the NFL. According to ASR, the picture's a little rosier, but still not pretty: game situations have accounted for between 1 and 2 total sacks thus far this season, meaning that the OL is actually pass blocking better than what basic NFL stats would otherwise indicate (ask me in the comments if you want to know how I came up with this). Of course, surrendering 6 or 7 sacks in 60+ dropbacks isn't going to cut it in the long run (long pass?...sorry, had to).

In terms of run blocking, it sure looks like the Niners' OL isn't doing it very well. To begin, only half of SF's yards per RB carry can be attributable to the OL, a stat that's no doubt affected by Gore's twin 80-yard TD runs. In other words, outside of those 2 runs, in which the lion's share of the yardage was thanks to Gore's breakaway speed, the SF run OFF has been the proverbial 3 yards and a cloud of dust. More proof of the OL's lackluster run-blocking performance through 2 games is their relative inability to (a) pick up 1^st downs on short-yardage runs, and (b) prevent DEF penetration for stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. These conclusions are based on the OL's power success rate and stuffed rate.

Below is a chart displaying the OL's directional run-blocking performance (click to enlarge):

Looking at the top of the chart, you can see the 49ers are running the ball predominately up the middle and behind RT. Keeping in mind that the NFL standard for teams with a right-handed QB is to have their better run blockers on the right side of the line and their better pass blockers on the left side of the line, the Niners' preference for middle-right runs is in the top quartile of an already middle-right run-heavy league. It's also interesting to note - not to mention very peculiar - that SF hasn't the run the ball to the outside right at all in their first 2 games.

With respect to directional ALY, notice how inept the 49ers' OL has been on runs behind the tackles. This is especially troubling behind RT for the reason I just described: it's where their OFF prefers to run the ball. Hey. At least they're only below average when it comes to running up the middle. Of course, these stats probably confirm what we've been seeing in the run game from our 49ers. Namely, 3 yards and a cloud of dust; keep running it up the middle for minimal gains regardless of whether the DEF is stopping it or not - and they have been.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

The same stats for OL can be applied in reverse to the DEF. However, rather than these stats measuring the performance of the DL, it's more accurate to say that they measure the performance of the DEF front 7 because LBs - and sometimes Ss - are involved in run-stopping. So here they are:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
3.24	8	100.0%	32	5.8%	14
Actual Yds Per RB Carry	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
3.13	6	32.3%	2	4.5%	13

Once again, we see statistical proof that the DEF is carrying this team. Except for being perfectly unsuccessful in short-yardage 3^rd/4^th down situations, they've been stout overall stopping the run. Although perhaps not apparent at first glance, the Niners' middle-of-the-road ASR is an important development. For one, they were a dismal 26^th last season, with an ASR of 5.0%. Also - and this is a nuanced point, so try to keep up with me here - the 2008 49ers' DEF had an ASR that was lower than its' actual sack rate, whereas this season the reverse is true. In other words, last year's pathetic sack total was - even more depressingly - a statistical mirage due to favorable game situations. Think "losing by 20 points on 3^rd & 20 in the early 4^th quarter." In contrast, this year's pass rush has actually been hurt, rather than helped, by the game situations in which they've played. Aside from this being yet another vindication of the validity of FO's stats, it more importantly suggests that the Niners pass rush might have more to show for itself once game situations even out a little bit as the season progresses.

Below is the DEF front 7's directional run-stopping chart (click to enlarge):

As you can see, the 49ers are a top-8 DEF through 2 games when it comes to stopping runs to the outside. Is this a speed thing? Is this a Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer thing? Is this an overall aggressive philosophy thing? You decide.

One other thing I'll point out about the directional stats is a bit of good fortune the DEF front 7 seems to have experienced in their first 2 games. Namely, they allow over 7 adjusted yards per RB carry when the opponent runs behind their LT, but - thankfully - ARI and SEA have basically ignored that major weakness in their play-calling. If I were MIN, or any other future 2009 opponent, I'd be looking to exploit this weakness much more than 3.2% of the time.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, FO puts out DVOA stats for each pass DEF that tell you how they've performed against their various types of opposing receivers. As is the case with all passing stats, these look at every pass attempt, not just those that are completed. Again, I've made a reader-friendly chart for you (click to enlarge):

Although it's quite difficult to figure out, a thorough search of the internet, NFL game books, and Fooch's DVR led to the pass DEF formations displayed above. In nickel, Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson move to DE, Dre Bly comes in as the 3^rd CB, Mark Roman - ugh - replaces Michael Lewis at SS, and Lewis moves down to replace Takeo Spikes at WLB. In dime, either Lewis moves back to S (with Dashon Goldson and Roman) or Tarell Brown replaces Lewis as the 6^th DB.

As for the stats, the chart shows that Spencer and Bly have actually played more efficiently than Clements. Of course, it's once again important to remember that the above stats haven't been adjusted for opponent yet. Obviously, Larry Fitzgerald and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are 2 of the best #1 WRs in the NFL, so Clements' stats stand to improve simply by virtue of the adjustments. I don't anticipate much of a change in the stats vs. TEs, because SF has faced one really good TE (John Carlson) and one invisible TE (Anthony Becht), which pretty much averages things out anyway. And one more thing I don't envision changing much is the pass DEF's poor performance against RBs, but that might just be - at least in part - by design.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 2 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers based on their team statistics thus far:

Hill has produced pass-unfriendly numbers despite playing in pass-friendly situations. But having Jimmy Raye as an OC is a superceding pass-unfriendly situation.
Gore's been a valuable and efficient RB, though not quite as much as what those two 80-yard runs might suggest. Sorry for the reality check, but don't expect him to be gaining 6+ yards per carry for the remainder of the season.
Bruce may be the Niners' best WR, but he sure hasn't been a #1 WR, which means Morgan hasn't been a #2 WR, and so on.
VD...can win without him.
The OL hasn't been run-blocking very well, which is surprising, what with all the practice they've been getting. They've been pretty bad compared to the rest of the league at pass-blocking too, but still better than what their 8 sacks allowed might suggest.
The DEF front seven has been stout against the run, especially when the opponent has run to the outside. Also, their pass rush through 2 games is statistically better than last year's, and may improve even more once their game situations even out.
The secondary is defending well against #2 WRs, #3 WRs, and TEs, but not so well against #1 WRs and RBs. Clements' numbers will probably improve once FO starts making opponent adjustments, but the poor pass DEF against RBs probably won't.

OK, that's it for this week. If the length of these 2 posts has rubbed you the wrong way or made you feel like you just survived being hit in the back by Patrick Willis, don't fret. Next week, I won't be trying to teach everyone how FO's stats were developed, what they mean, how they're interpreted, etc. That'll make the posts a whoooooooole lot shorter. So, see you again next week, hopefully after a Niner win!

**DVOA, DYAR, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

After what you've seen from Vernon Davis in the first 2 games of 2009, should the 49ers fish or cut bait?

Fish

437 votes

Cut bait

65 votes

502 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: 49ers get Thomas Clayton for another year

Fooch — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 10:00:19 -0000

While some won't care about this news, others will likely be quite ecstatic....or at least pleasantly pleased. After blowing out his knee, Thomas Clayton was placed on waivers by the 49ers. According to the first Maiocco link, Clayton cleared waivers without being claimed by any other NFL team. This means he reverts to the 49ers injured reserve list and the 49ers retain his rights. So, while we likely won't hear any other football news about Clayton this year, he'll get another crack at making the team in 2010. Of course, it seems like running backs coming off an ACL injury don't really have their legs back until the middle to end of the next season at the earliest. This would indicate that Clayton has a pretty good chance of not making the 49ers 53-man roster next year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see next year. On to the links...

Gore fired up, but 49ers and Raiders play it cool (SJ Mercury News)

Kawakami: 49ers dominate Raiders (SJ Mercury News)

Combined practices between 49ers, Raiders are beneficial, feisty (SJ Mercury News)

Live from Napa: 49ers pick apart Raiders, Jimmy Raye speaks (SJ Mercury News)

Words from the 49ers wipe-out of the Raiders: Russell, Cable, Clements transcripts (SJ Mercury News)

49ers sign CB Eric Green | 49ers Hot Read (SJ Mercury News)

Foot traffic (SFGate.com)

Gore shows attitude in proving blocking skills (SFGate.com)

SFGate: Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Tuesday practice notes (SFGate.com)

Niner Insider : Best Practice Ever (SFGate.com)

Plenty more after the jump...

Halfway finished with 49ers-Raiders work (Maiocco)

A day for the defense (Maiocco)

Hill inching ahead of Smith (Maiocco)

Defensive feast in Napa (Maiocco)

Singletary: We made progress (Maiocco)

Hill appears to have moved past Smith (Maiocco)

Cable takes responsibility for red-zone debacle (Phil Barber - Press Democrat)

49ers Blog and Q&A: Greatest. Practice. Ever. (Barrows)

49ers Blog and Q&A: Raye speaks, we listen (Barrows)

49ers Blog and Q&A: Green added to surging secondary (Barrows)

Defense Owns Wednesday Morning Session in Napa (49ers.com)

Raiders 'dominated in all areas' by 49ers in scrimmage (USA Today)

Camp Impressions-San Francisco 49ers (Scout.com)

Niners scoop up Eric Green (Pro Football Talk)

Bruce's days as No. 1 receiver numbered in San Francisco (Football Outsiders via ESPN.com - Insider protected)

Projecting the 49ers 53-man roster #2

Fooch — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:00:18 -0000

Approximately six weeks ago I rolled out my initial projection of the 49ers 53-man roster. While there is still plenty of preseason football to be played, I thought a couple weeks of training camp and a preseason game is enough time to consider revisions to our 53-man roster projection.

I have to admit that this has gotten really difficult to figure out given some of the injuries and the Michael Crabtree holdout. Brandon Jones is out until early October with his shoulder injury and Zak Keasey is out for 8-10 weeks with his forearm injury. Neither player can go on the PUP list since they passed physicals at the start of training camp. I think that means Keasey is likely to be cut at some point soon and potentially placed on injured reserve if he clears waivers (if I'm getting the rules correct).

Then there's Crabtree. Given his holdout he's still not a member of the 49ers. That basically means we'll come up with a list of 54 players because once Crabtree is signed, he'd have to go on the 53-man roster and somebody would need to be cut. At this point Crabtree is not included in this projection. After the jump we discuss that impact among other things.

Also, I've underlined new additions to the 53-man roster.

Offense
QB (3): Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Nate Davis
RB (4): Frank Gore, Glen Coffee, Michael Robinson, Kory Sheets
FB (1): Moran Norris
WR (6): Isaac Bruce, Brandon Jones, Josh Morgan, Jason Hill, Arnaz Battle, Dominique Zeigler
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Bear Pascoe
LT (2): Joe Staley, Alex Boone
LG (1): David Baas
C (2): Eric Heitmann, Cody Wallace
RG (2): Chilo Rachal, Tony Wragge
RT (2): Adam Snyder, Marvel Smith

Defense
DE (5): Justin Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Demetric Evans, Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean-Francois***
DT (1): Aubrayo Franklin
OLB (4): Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks, Marques Harris
ILB (4): Patrick Willis, Takeo Spikes, Jeff Ulbrich, Scott McKillop
CB (5): Nate Clements, Dre Bly, Tarell Brown, Shawntae Spencer, Marcus Hudson
FS (2): Dashon Goldson, Mark Roman
SS (2): Michael Lewis, Reggie Smith

Special Teams
K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
LS: Brian Jennings
KR/PR: Allen Rossum

Last 5 on: Ahmad Brooks, Kory Sheets, Dominique Zeigler, Ricky Jean-Francois, Alex Boone

First 5 off: Jay Moore, ~~Barry Sims~~ Curtis Taylor, Micheal Spurlock, Damon Huard, Brit Miller

***Ray McDonald is on the PUP list and would need a spot on the roster at some point in the season. Replacement TBD

After the jump I take a look at some of the changes and some of the notable omissions. After you've read that over, feel free to tear me a new one on some of these selections.

There are a few players that are giving me all sorts of trouble. Let's start at wide receiver. Once Crabtree signs, who do you cut? The quick thought is to get rid of one of the receivers (either Zeigler or Battle). However, if Crabtree signs before the season starts, or even that first week or two, Brandon Jones will not be back yet. Given that Crabtree has a ton of ground to make up, I don't think you want to cut a guy who's been playing since day 1. So who exactly do you get rid of to make room for Crabtree on the 53-man roster?

Quarterback
I'm a bit conflicted here, but I think it's just that initial rush of a good performance from Damon Huard. If Nate Davis doesn't get much playing time, can the team afford to have him sitting at #3 if they elect to waive Damon Huard? Or is this an indication that Huard isn't going anywhere and they might actually keep 4 QBs? Given the injury issues, can this team afford to give a roster space to a 4th quarterback at this point?

Running Backs
The season ending injury to Thomas Clayton helps Kory Sheets, but doesn't guarantee anything. I kept Sheets on the roster, but I actually am thinking that his real "nemisis" for a roster spot is Micheal Spurlock. Spurlock has shown a good bit of potential and has been getting moved around all over the field, including in the wildcat/taser formation. At this point, I think either Spurlock or Sheets makes the roster, but not both.

Fullback
Close to 2/3 of you think Brit Miller will make the 53-man roster for week 1 of the regular season. I'm not quite comfortable adding him in yet given the presence of Moran Norris and Michael Robinson. At the same time, I've elevated him to first 5 off the roster. Miller will see a whole lot of playing time and if he puts up similar performances in the coming weeks, he might bump somebody off the roster. Who that would be exactly, I'm not so sure.

Offensive Tackle
I succumbed to the pressure and replaced Barry Sims with Alex Boone. Sims did perfectly reasonable in his backup role last week, but consider me on the upside bandwagon of Boone. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised with any outcome in this battle. However, as I said before, it's going to be either Boone or Sims, not both, on the roster.

Miscellaneous
I thought I'd close with a few miscellaneous thoughts on other roster spots. I added in RJF with McDonald on the PUP list, but I think RJF is still in a tenuous position at this point. He'll need to build on last weekend's performance. I moved Jay Moore off my projection, and went with Marques Harris. Harris has experience in the Manusky defense and that veteran presence would likely give him an edge. And Moore retains practice squad eligibility.

NFL Network plays a cruel prank on yours truly

Fooch — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 15:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Sanchez - AP

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I was down in San Diego this weekend for a wedding, so I planned on recording the Friday night 49ers-Broncos preseason matchup. For some reason I forgot about the local network broadcast of the game and set my DVR to record the NFL Network broadcast. I got back from San Diego yesterday afternoon, grabbed some food and kicked back to watch the game. At first they were airing the end of an earlier game. I began fast-forwarding and suddenly was being confronted by images of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, followed by the Raiders-Cowboys game.

Yes, for some reason the NFL Network switched it up and decided to show the Cowboys and Raiders and NOT the 49ers and Broncos. I realize this is only the preseason, but given the two teams involved, could it have been a worse matchup to record instead of the 49ers?

This leaves us with some short-term good and bad news. The good news is that the NFL Network re-aired the game from 10pm to 1am last night and I got it recorded (and it's not the Raiders game again!) The bad news is that my plan for this morning was too post an update on all positional battles, or maybe a new 53-man roster projection. Given the change in recordings, that stuff is postponed a day or so while I finally watch the game.

In the meantime, to get the chit-chat rolling, I thought we could focus the early conversation on two topics. First, the kick in the junk that was my situation above with the NFL Network. Just a cruel joke if you ask me. But more on-field product related, the second topic is fullback Brit Miller.

As I can only view the statistics right now, he certainly made a splash with his two touchdown receptions. As Thomas Clayton would tell you, preseason statistics aren't necessarily an indicator of a roster spot (too soon?). When I get to watching the game I'd imagine I'll be able to get a better idea of his performance, but for now, I'd like to hear what other folks think. Miller was probably a long shot to make the roster heading into training camp, but things have certainly improved for him. Robinson was getting playing time at fullback before going down with a groin injury.

More importantly, last Friday saw Zak Keasey go down for up to 8-10 weeks with a broken forearm (according to Mike Singletary - yesterday's transcript after the jump). Keasey was no lock to make the roster, but his special teams prowess definitely helped his chances. Singletary indicated Robinson remains day-to-day, but made no mention of Moran Norris. No matter what, Miller is probably going to see quite a bit of playing time this week and beyond. While a roster spot is far from guaranteed, Miller has been placed in a position to take a roster spot.

Oh, and I finally started watching the game. LOVE the jerseys.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Walk-Thru - 08-16-09
San Francisco 49ers

On describing the purpose of walk-thrus:
"It’s to get back into the flow. The guys had yesterday off, and so you come back, you look at the film, you correct the mistakes, you come out here and go through some of the mistakes. It’s an opportunity to come back together. We’ve got a test later on today and then tomorrow, we go back to work again. So, it’s just bringing it back to football. A lot of times when guys have time off, they get away. You just have to bring them back like, ‘okay guys, here we go. This is what we’re here for and let’s get ready to go tomorrow.’"

On what he did yesterday on the day off:
"I got away. Every chance that I get with my family, I make sure that I don’t forget the big picture as well."

On adding more running backs to the training camp roster:
"Right now we’re just going to kind of play it day-to-day. We’ve got a fullback coming in and we will see. I guess in the next few days we will see what we have already and if we can go with that or if we have to add somebody, we will, but we will just take it as we go."

On the loss of running back Thomas Clayton:
"It’s always unfortunate when you lose anyone that’s trying to make a football team. He’s just a guy that really works hard. He gives you everything that he has on every down and we know that he had high hopes of being part of the team. When someone like that goes down, it’s always a difficult thing to see. So, we’ll just have to rehabilitate the knee and go from there."

On if there are any thoughts to bring Thomas Clayton back:
"That’s too far down the road to begin to talk about ‘should we bring him back? Should we do this or whatever?’ We’re going to let him get healthy first."

On other teams around the league asking about Clayton:
"It’s hard to miss him. When you look at him, he’s the kind of guy that everything that he’s doing you know that he’s going as fast as he can go, he’s going as hard as he can go and he’s just one of those guys that when you look on him on film, you know that you’re going to get everything that he has on every play. Every team is looking for somebody that will do that."

On what he thought of Scott McKillop’s performance in the pre season game:
"I see a young guy that’s trying to have the game slow down for him. He continues to work on his technique and all of the little things that he needs to do in order to make this football team and make a contribution in his first year. He’s trying to make calls – so right now, the game is big for him, not too big, but it’s big, and for him, he’s trying to get it to slow down a bit so that he can get his eyes in the right place and get the correct reads. I think right now that’s the biggest thing for him. He is a guy that is making progress each day, and the more time goes by, the better he’ll get."

On watching the game film from Friday and his thoughts:
"It wasn’t much different from what I saw Friday night, I mean, it was okay. I think that we can get a lot better. It’s not bad for a start, but I just think that it’s really important for us that we set the tempo. I think it’s important for us to make sure that we don’t play to our opponent’s level, whatever that might be. We want to go out and set the level of tempo so high that they have to adjust to us and I think that’s important for us to stay focused on."

On noticing the physical play of running back Glen Coffee:
"I just know that he’s a tough guy. He’s a physical guy. He’s a tough runner. Once he gets past the line of scrimmage, he makes great cuts. He’s got decent vision down the field. I think the biggest thing that sticks out with him is that he doesn’t play like a rookie and [also] doesn’t carry himself like a rookie. He’s a guy that when he goes out to play, he plays with an attitude. Very tough kid, so that’s exciting to see."

On critiquing the play of safety Curtis Taylor:
"Curtis played okay. I talked to him earlier today about the way he played. I think that for the ability that he has and him being a big of a guy as he is and being as physically gifted as he is, I want to see more out of him. I want to see him bring more of the physicality. I know that he has a lot of speed for a guy his size to really make plays on the field, but it’s about coming down in the box and making a play. Being physical on a receiver, running back or fullback trying to take you out of a play, how do you respond to that. I want to see more of that going forward."

On injury updates concerning linebacker Patrick Willis:
"I’m thankful to get Patrick [Willis] back. Even though he’s back out here, I’m still going to keep my eyes on him and make sure that things are going the way that they should go, but I’m very excited to have him back. He adds a lot to our defense. He adds a lot of excitement. It’s kind of like bringing back the completion of our defensive unit."

On injury updates concerning fullback Zak Keasey:
"I think that we talked about 8 -10 weeks for him with the fracture and we just have to hope that he heals properly and go from there."

On Patrick Willis and other injured players returning to practice Monday:
"[Patrick] Willis will be back tomorrow. I think that we get Delanie [Walker] back. I think that Tarell Brown will be back. He will be running again and we just have to monitor that day-to-day. Other than that, I think that’s it."

On the status of guard David Baas and running back Michael Robinson:
"Baas is still a day-to-day situation right now. We’re monitoring that very closely, but he’s making good progress. Robinson is the same thing. I think that he’s day-to-day situation as well."

On the process of placing running back Thomas Clayton on waivers:
"I just want to say right now that we’re going to talk about it a little bit more in terms of how we want to handle that situation and we will go from there, but we haven’t talked about that exactly yet."

On any thoughts of the quarterback rotation for the upcoming game versus the Oakland Raiders:
"No. "

On his familiarity with Oakland Raiders President Al Davis:
"Oh yeah, I know him, but not well."

On going up against the Raiders in his career:
"Only as a player. Al Davis has always had a reputation of being a coach, a [general manager], or an owner on the field that when the opposing team came on the field, he treated them as if they were on his team. You know, ‘Hey, how are you doing. Hey, what’s going on?’ He was very friendly, very nice, so I remember that and that was always different. The Raiders were the only team in the league that treated you like you were friends. Before the game, they treated you very well. Before the game, everything after that was downhill."

Poll

Will Brit Miller make the 49ers 53-man roster for week 1?

Yes

303 votes

No

159 votes

462 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: All Thomas Clayton, all the time

Fooch — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 10:00:17 -0000

I had a feeling this day would come at some point. Thomas Clayton has indeed been waived. I wasn't expecting injury to be the cause, but it is what it is. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough if he clears waivers. Outside of that, for those wondering, Ninjames is out of town the next few days so I'll be handling the links the next few days. Mine lack some of his creativity, but links are links, right? The 49ers face the Raiders this weekend so it'll be interesting to see what stories come out of their shared training camps up in Napa later this week.

QB + Mystery = Easy Decision (Maiocco)

We all know Hill's the guy ... so far (Maiocco)

Clayton's injury is season-ender (Maiocco)

NINERS NOTES (Maiocco)

49ERS PRESEASON / 1 game, 1 win, no change in QB situation (SFGate.com)

Scott Ostler / Hyped up on truck- stop Coffee (SFGate.com)

Don Burke, 49ers linebacker from 1950s, dies at 83 (SFGate.com)

49ers backfield highlight 49ers victory (49ers Examiner)

49ers camp update: Clayton out, Rentmeester in (SJ Mercury News)

49ers waive injured RB Clayton (Yahoo! Sports)

49ers Waive/Injured RB Clayton; Sign FB Rentmeester (49ers.com)

Singletary's Notebook: Aug. 16 (49ers.com)

49ers Blog and Q&A: Clayton waived; Willis waved in (Barrows)

Is Crabtree or Morgan the better sleeper? (ESPN.com)

49ers vet: 'Shaun Hill will win games for us' (Sando - ESPN.com)

Mailbag: Fitzgerald, Crabtree, Vick and more (Sando - ESPN.com)

49ers waive RB Thomas Clayton after ACL injury

Fooch — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 22:40:41 -0000

Thanks to Frank Cuatro Ocho for getting the initial FanShot on the injury up early early this morning. The 49ers just sent out a press release announcing that Thomas Clayton did in fact tear the ACL in his right knee. However, on top of that they have now waived Clayton and filled his roster spot with FB Bill Rentmeester, a rookie free agent. I'm sure some folks think we should fly a flag at half mast for Clayton after his previous preseason performances.

If this isn't a sign of how far down the depth chart Thomas Clayton was, then I don't know what is. Although I could be wrong on the roster rules, the team could have placed Clayton on Injured Reserve as they have done with other preseason injuries in the past (notably Jay Moore the last two seasons). To not do so shows that was it for him. Unfortunately for Clayton, this is just one of the breaks of the game.

In terms of roster implications, there really isn't much there. He was competing with Kory Sheets for a roster position that might not even exist. Sheets has done enough to move up the depth chart a little bit and will need to continue showing coaches he's worth holding onto as more than just a practice squad body.

UPDATE: Thanks to save10 for pointing this out in Maiocco's article about the roster move:

Any team can claim Clayton, but that seems unlikely because he's out for the season. If he goes unclaimed, Clayton automatically reverts back to the 49ers and will go on injured reserve. If the 49ers had just placed Clayton on injured reserve without the "waived" designation, he still would have counted against the team's 80-man limit until the first cutdown day (Sept. 5).

Golden Nuggets: Work to Do!

Ninjames — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 10:45:32 -0000

Morning everyone, James here with your Nuggets for the day. I know what you're thinking: "Are the Nuggets coming up at 4 from now on?" I know you're thinking this because OBVIOUSLY there are a ton of you who get on at exactly 3 AM Pacific just to read what I have to say--the answer is no, I've just been very busy lately. They'll be back an hour earlier starting um... well, looking at the clock, starting tomorrow seeing as I'm typing this at 3:25. That being said I have a decent amount of links for you today, and if I start to cry a little about Clayton's ACL tear well, I apologize. On to the links, enjoy!

Here's an analysis of the 49ers' first offensive drive, with Shaun Hill at the helm. Pretty good stuff, methinks. All except for Keasey, who I cant seem to find a soft spot for anymore. (SFGate.com)

After that game, there is still no winner, or for that matter, front runner in the quarterback competition in San Francisco. (SacBee.com)

HB Thomas Clayton tore his ACL. Now, I'm not crazy and even through my adoration I can see that Kory Sheets did a serviceable job last night. I wont mind having him on the roster in place of Clayton. (ProFootballTalk.com)

RT Adam Snyder seemed to impress Mike Singletary--which is good because he impressed me to. Wragge on the other hand... (PressDemocrat.com)

Here's what Singletary had to say the day after the game. (That's yesterday, folks.) (PressDemocrat.com)

Not too sure I understand the "hurt themselves" portion of this Team Report, but Manny Lawson only saw a few snaps, I cant judge him just yet. (MercuryNews.com)

Singletary says we've got work to do. (Yahoo.com)

Are the Denver Bronco's a poor measuring stick to judge just how good we are? Probably. (SFGate.com)

The quarterback battle is "heating up." Which is odd because I don't see any increase in.. well, suffice to say I don't see how it's heating up when literally nothing has changed and neither side stepped it up. (SFGate.com)

Jed York is still confident that the 49ers will reach an agreement with WR Michael Crabtree. I'm not holding my breath. (SFGate.com)

Thumbs up and Thumbs down for the game against Denver. (Scout.com)

To finish, Maiocco has a player-by-player recap from the game with the Broncos. (PressDemocrat.com)

Golden Nuggets: Just FINE Without Crabtree, Thank You!

Ninjames — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 11:00:26 -0000

Gooood morning folks, James here with your Nuggets for the day and I am just great! First time to the 'Stick in years and I had a blast. How about them Niners, huh? I saw a lot of good things and a few bad things. One thing I'll note is that during the game, being there, I thought our quarterbacks looked awful, but I suppose it's just a thing that you get the feeling for when you're present, because when I got back and watched a bit of the game, they really didn't look as bad as they did in person. Anyway, I had the cheap seats but I don't care, was a good time. I have a good feeling about this team, but I'm not holding onto hope that we'll win versus Oakland or the other two games, our backups just seem to get dominated. Regular season however... well we'll see. Anyway, on to your links, folks!

Before I get all external on you, here's a pretty well-written recap from one of us here at the Nation. (NinersNation.com)

A little less than external here, how about the post-game article from our resident Broncos blog? (MileHighReport.com)

Maiocco has quite a few notes on the game. (PressDemocrat.com)

That's right, we got along just fine without Michael Crabtree. Still, I'd like to have the kid sooner rather than later. (SacBee.com)

The secondary led the way in the victory over the Broncos. Well, that is, the secondary sans Jahi Word-Daniels and Mark Roman. Surprised? Me neither. (49ers.com)

Mike Singletary says "Thank God for the preseason," and I agree on some aspects. Also some notes and quotes. (SacBee.com)

There's no change in the QB situation as of the end of this game, the battle is still on at this point. Right now I'd give the edge to uh... Damon Huard? No, surely not. Shaun Hill. (PressDemocrat.com)

HB Thomas Clayton (my boy) left the game with a knee injury. I spent most of the time while he was on the ground looking in my binoculars at the some-25 cops rushing into the stands on the opposite side to break up some sort of brawl. (Yahoo.com)

We went right by the deadline to trade Crabtree, confident that we'll get him signed. (Yahoo.com)

Always a good read, Barrows and his game day blog. (SacBee.com)

Here's the game center for yesterday's game from NFL.com (NFL.com)

More links and what not after the jump...

I think dominates is a strong word, but we did get four picks (three official) so yeah. (49ers.com)

Post game article/recap from ESPN here, focusing on Orton's three picks. (ESPN.com)

And a pretty complete recap from Yahoo. (Yahoo.com)

Here's a sort of play-by-play on the drives with some quotes sprinkled in. (SFGate.com)

Not really much you haven't read already, but some notes here. (SFGate.com)

Will update in a short while after I get some food. Enjoy. Also, if you feel up to it, I'd head over to the Bengals SB Nation blog and warn the poor soul who said "OK. I know I have been a fan of J.T. Since his UCD days. But still you have to admit that a QB rating of 134.84 is an impressive stat for a bu QB." not to be fooled by his trickery. Don't actually do this, of course 1. Because it'd be rude and 2. Because it'd be funnier if the team places any faith at all in J.T. and burns for it.

Golden Nuggets: Have to say it, of course... Don't Taze Me Bro!

Ninjames — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:00:24 -0000

Gooood morning everyone, James here with your Golden Nuggets for the day. Much apologies, I seem to be very late in beginning this article, and thus I'll be late in posting it. Just got busy and couldn't help the fact. Either way I should have a bunch of links for you as I have in the past few days. Something or other about a taser, which I just cant wait to read. Remember if I've missed anything (likely in my haste today) and you find an article that I didn't dig up, feel free to post it so long as it's not from a garbage source or says something bad about HB Thomas Clayton. Ok, maybe I can't dictate what you post, but I can certainly [site decorum] about it. Enjoy your links

QB Alex Smith is being the nice guy. I kind of want to see this kid fired up and spitting flames though. Oh well. (SacBee.com)

So here's a look at the 49ers' version of the Wildcat, which they're calling the "Taser." (SFGate.com)

Maiocco recaps a practice from yesterday. (PressDemocrat.com)

WR Micheal Spurlock has been a pleasant surprise thus far. I have a good feeling he'll make the roster, though I hope not in place of either Dominique Zeigler or Jason Hill. (PressDemocrat.com)

Si yeah, WR Michael Crabtree still has yet to even consider signing a contract. I'm really starting to dislike his agent. I also still stick with my initial observations on the kid, which I'll not post here. (PressDemocrat.com)

I certainly hope the 49ers aren't too tired to play football come tomorrow. (SFGate.com)

A general article on training camp and the upcoming game against Denver, of note is Raye saying he wants to see Thomas Clayton and Kory Sheets to see what he has to work with. I'm pulling for Clayton. (49ers.com)

Camp Spotlight: Cody Wallace. (49ers.com)

Mike Singletary is sticking to a physical training camp. (Yahoo.com)

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers - A Few Good Questions with Fooch from NinersNation

John Bena — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:35:43 -0000

Damn it feels good to be talking football. I know it is just the preseason, but getting prepared to watch Broncos football at any level can't be beat. Especially this year, where every position seems to be up for grabs making this preseason the most important we have seen around these parts in many, many years.

That said, I took some time to ask Fooch, who run NinersNation, some questions about our opponent Friday Night and what we can expect to see. He was nice enough to oblige.

UPDATE -- Here are the answers I gave to Fooch's questions for NN!

The obvious first. What is the deal with Crabtree?? Is this a situation where he wants Top-5 money because he thinks he should have been picked that high or is his foot a concern so he wants as much money now as possible?

First off, it's obviously difficult to know the truth given how silent Eugene Parker and the 49ers have been on things. A lot has been said but it's usually a couple sources removed. That talk though has been that there is a philosophical difference. Parker thinks Crabtree is a top 5 talent and deserves that kind of money, or at least more than Darrius Heyward-Bay. Of course, Tyson Jackson was not a top 3 talent but that didn't lead to a worse contract!

People (again who knows how much in the know they really are) have indicated the team and Crabtree have gotten closer. However, if this really is a philosophical difference I don't see how they could be getting closer unless Parker and Crabtree are backing down. I always mention Parker in conjunction with Crabtree because a lot of the talk is Parker promised big things to Crabtree and doesn't look like he'll be able to back it up.

This can't be good for Crabtree's relationship with Mike Singletary. What has he said about the situation, of anything?

In one post-practice press conference, Singletary was asked about the hold out. At that point he admitted he'd held out a couple times, including his rookie season (he was a second round pick projected as a first). One plus to having a former player as a coach is that he understands the business side of things (especially one who played when the tv money was increasing pretty dramatically). Singletary has stated he obviously wants Crabtree in camp and it would be best for him, but he's acknowledged he understands the money side of things. The biggest plus is that for the players on the field it seems like he's made it a non-issue at this point.

What is the latest on the QB situation in S.F.? Is Shaun Hill the guy or is the competition open?

The competition is very much open. Singletary hasn't even named a starter for Friday yet and once he does, I'd imagine they'd both get equal playing time. Alex Smith has apparently looked quite good for the most part in practice, but the question is if he can convert that into game-time production. He's always been a good practice player. And as I mentioned in the FanPost at MHR, I think Smith has to take the job from Hill. It's an open competition but I consider Hill the incumbent with the job to lose. I'm looking forward to that as much as anything else in this upcoming game.

The great thing about the NFL is the hope each new season provides every team. Last year, it was Arizona surprising everyone and getting to the Super Bowl. What are the fans' expectations for the Niners? What are your personal expectations?

I was discussing this the other day with one of the front page authors at NN and we agreed this team could end up all over the place, and fan predictions are along the same lines. We've got the pessimists thinking 5 wins and the optimists thinking 11 wins. Personally I think 9-7 is slightly optimistic, but where I think they end up. I've been wildly wrong in the past, but if a few things break the right way, I remain convinced this is a team that could make the playoffs. Beyond that, the Arizona Cardinals proved anything is possible in the playoffs. I'm certainly not saying the 49ers are going to get to the Super Bowl, but like I said, a few things breaking the right way could make for a crazy season. Of course, a few things breaking the wrong way means we could be in for a rough season.

First pre-season game of the season, but both teams have a lot of question marks. What are you going to be watching for this Friday Night?

I'll be watching all sorts of positional battles. QB is the easy one. Beyond that, there's the battle between Adam Snyder and Marvel Smith for the starting right tackle position and Barry Sims/Alex Boone for the backup left tackle spot. Given that Alex Boone once required two tasers to be taken down (he was a bit of an alcoholic (link to this story here where it mentions 30-40 beers a day at his worst: http://www.ohio.com/sports/osu/39878257.html)) in one incident, he's clearly a tough SOB. Most folks are rooting for him to make the team over Sims.

Aside from that Kentwan Balmer will be looking to kickstart his career after a rough rookie season and your boy Dre' Bly will be looking to nail down the #2 cornerback job. Bly hasn't blown anybody away in practice but his primary competition, Tarell Brown, has been out since the first or second day of camp due to a toe injury.

It is still early, but give me a surprise player in Camp that will make the team. Give me someone you think might be a surprise cut.

Hmmmm....The 49ers don't actually have a lot of surprises so I'm going with a guy that would be a surprise even to me: running back Kory Sheets. He was undrafted out of Purdue and has shown some nasty skills out of the backfield and even potentially in the return game (not something he did in college). He's already gotten more reps in training camp than back to back preseason phenom and cult favorite Thomas Clayton. I think Sheets would be even more surprising because he has all his practice squad eligibility available if he can clear waivers.

As far as a surprise cut? Veteran Arnaz Battle was on the chopping block, but a Brandon Jones injury and Crabtree's holdout has likely locked in a roster spot for both he and Dominique Zeigler (another bubble guy). Taking them out of the equation, it's hard to tell. As much as the 49ers have struggled in the past, they seem to have locks at a lot of positions. I'll say the 49ers go without a veteran QB and cut Damon Huard, thus allowing them to keep Nate Davis on the 53-man roster. Not an inspiring choice, but what the heck, right?

Our thanks to Fooch for taking the time to answer our questions, as well as for the FanPost where he has handled all the questions and comments from the community as well. Best of luck to the 49ers, and NinersNation, all season long!