SB Nation - Joe Cohen

Wednesday Injury Report: Packers at Lions

Brandon — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 06:57:16 -0000

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford, who injured his non-throwing shoulder in last week’s wild win over the Cleveland Browns, will start Thursday against the Packers, reports NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson, who was listed as questionable throughout the week, is active and will also play Thursday.

As the season grows longer, so does the injury report. This week the Green Bay Packers have 13 players listed, and the Lions have 14.

For the Packers: I'm sure everyone knows that LB Aaron Kampman and CB Al Harris are done for the season with matching ACL injuries. But after them, only RT Allen Barbre and RB Ahman Green didn't practice on Wednesday because they are both recovering from injuries suffered last week in practice. While it would be nice to have them both available, I don't think anyone expects either to play a significant role in the offense. The only other major concern was C Scott Wells, who had his knee swell up bad on Monday and Tuesday, but apparently nothing is torn and he should play.

For the Lions: Their injury list is long and a problem. Neither QB Matthew Stafford or WR Calvin Johnson has practiced this week. Will Carroll discussed Stafford's shoulder injury:

The result is good, but a meaningless win against a bad team really doesn't mean much in the longer term. Stafford's non-throwing shoulder is being described as "mangled" and it's clear that it was a dislocation. This is much like the situation with Sam Bradford, but on the non-throwing side.

It's a good point in regards to Stafford and Johnson. Why risk either player's long-term health when the best outcome is a 3-8 record? Obviously their absence helps the Packers, but I don't see how they can push either player on a short week when neither was able to practice. Two safeties (Kalvin Pearson and Ko Simpson) are listed as out, and starting FS Louis Delmas is questionable (limited in practice on Wednesday). If Delmas can't play, their secondary might be literally without any depth. LB Ernie Sims is out too, but his replacement is former Badger LB DeAndre Levy and he shouldn't be much a drop off from Sims. RB Kevin Smith was limited in practice on Wednesday too.

The complete injury reports are listed after the jump.

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wednesday Participation	Wednesday Status
Allen Barbre	T/G	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Brandon Chillar	LB	Hand	Full Participation	Probable
Chad Clifton	T	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Ryan Grant	RB	Neck	Full Participation	Probable
Ahman Green	RB	Groin	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Al Harris	CB	Knee	Out	Out
Cullen Jenkins	DE	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Johnny Jolly	DE	Back	Full Participation	Probable
Aaron Kampman	LB	Knee	Out	Out
John Kuhn	FB	Hand	Full Participation	Probable
Josh Sitton	G	Back	Full Participation	Probable
Scott Wells	C	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Charles Woodson	CB	Hip	Full Participation	Probable


Player	Pos.	Injury	Wednesday Participation	Wednesday Status
Joe Cohen	DT	Ankle & Elbow	Limited Participation	Probable
Louis Delmas	S	Shoulder	Limited Participation	Questionable
Jordan Dizon	LB	Concussion	Full Participation	Probable
Zack Follett	LB	Knee	Limited Participation	Probable
Grady Jackson	DT	Shoulder	Limited Participation	Probable
Calvin Johnson	WR	Not Inj. Related	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Daniel Loper	T	Quadricep	Limited Participation	Questionable
Kalvin Pearson	S	Not Inj. Related	Did Not Participate	Out
Ko Simpson	S	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Ernie Sims	LB	Back	Did Not Participate	Out
Kevin Smith	RB	Shoulder	Limited Participation	Probable
Matthew Stafford	QB	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Dewayne White	DE	Knee	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Derrick Williams	WR	Knee	(Not Listed)	N/A

Friday Notes: Lions Place Copeland Bryan on IR, Sign Vinny Ciurciu

Sean Yuille — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:54:25 -0000

Defensive end Copeland Bryan was placed on injured reserve yesterday. An MCL sprain he suffered against the Packers is the reason behind his season coming to an end. The Lions replaced Bryan on the roster with free agent linebacker Vinny Ciurciu, who has been on a variety of teams over the years, including the Panthers, Buccaneers, Vikings, and Patriots. Ciurciu actually practiced at fullback on Thursday, showing that he is a very versatile player. His biggest impact will likely be on special teams rather than at linebacker, but the Lions obviously feel that he could also help out with depth at fullback.
The Lions filled the vacancy on their practice squad (Lydon Murtha was signed by the Dolphins, as you probably already know) by signing defensive tackle Joe Cohen.
Matthew Stafford threw some passes on the sideline during Thursday's practice, but he didn't actually get on the field with the rest of the team.
The Lions were still so injured earlier this week that Jim Schwartz had to change a practice to a walkthrough.
Schwartz said that the Lions would be comfortable with DeAndre Levy being a starter.
Anthony Henry could still be moved to safety.
Some Lions players are going back to their colleges for the bye week and others are simply going home. Kevin Smith is actually going to New York City, but he said the Rams will still be on his mind even though the game isn't until next week.
Orien Harris, who was released by the Lions earlier this season, has signed with the Bengals.
The Highlight Reel's Philip Zaroo snapped a couple funny pictures during a Lions practice. The first is of Tom Lewand and Jim Schwartz, who both have a priceless expression on their face. The second is of Dominic Raiola doing what he does best: flipping people off.

Dolphins make a number of roster moves, including the release of Wilford and the trade of two linemen

Matty I — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 16:47:16 -0000

Whenever I'm not around for a period of time, news breaks. Today has been no different - with the Dolphins making several roster moves.

The Dolphins announced that they have waived Anthony Kimble, Orion Martin, Chris Williams, Tearrius George, and Joe Cohen. They also terminated the contract of Ernest Wilford - last season's bust from free agency.

Meanwhile, several sources are reporting that the Dolphins have traded backup guard Andy Alleman to the Kansas City Chiefs. But that's not all. Jeff Darlington is also reporting that backup lineman Ike Ndukwe was also sent to Kansas City in that package. But it's unknown what the Dolphins have received in return from the Chiefs - who are now run by Bill Parcells' son-in-law Scott Pioli.

This means the Dolphins currently have 11 offensive linemen on the roster battling for what will likely result in 9 roster spots.

Getting back to Wilford, his release will cost the Dolphins $4.5 million against their 2009 salary cap thanks to the guaranteed money the Dolphins handed Ernest last offseason. But the Fins clearly felt that keeping him around because of his contract wasn't worth the loss of a roster spot for a young guy with a lot of upside - potentially John Nalbone.

As far as former fan-favorite Chris Williams goes, he was waived/injured - not just waived. So if he goes unclaimed on waivers, he will be placed on Injured Reserve for the year with the Dolphins. While players on IR can't practice with the team, he would still be property of the Dolphins and could work out individually to improve his ability to field punts.

[UPDATE: The Dolphins are receiving an undisclosed draft pick in 2010 for the two guards.]

Miami Dolphins Training Camp Primer: How will the defensive line shape up?

Matty I — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 04:15:08 -0000

Phillip Merling will be asked to step up and fill the void left by the release of Vonnie Holliday.

View full size photo »

So far we've looked at the receiver position and the tight end position in our 2009 training camp primers. Today we'll flip to the defensive side of the ball for the first time and focus our attention on the defensive line.

Despite the large number of defensive linemen currently on the roster and the mix of veterans and rookies that make up the defensive line at the moment, I think that how the position will shape up entering the regular season is as cut and dry as any position on the team. There probably won't be too many surprises when all is said and done.

THE QUICK BREAKDOWN

Virtual locks to make the roster: Kendall Langford, Phillip Merling, Jason Ferguson
Likely to make roster: Randy Starks, Paul Soliai
On the bubble: Tony McDaniel, Lionel Dotson, Rodrique Wright
Long shots: Ryan Baker, Joe Cohen, Louis Ellis

THE QUESTIONS

Much of the attention on the Dolphins' defensive line during camp will be focused on two players. One is second-year defensive end Phillip Merling. Merling will be asked to replace Vonnie Holliday in the starting lineup at defensive end opposite fellow second-year end Kendall Langford. Merling showed some flashes last year as the top backup at defensive end. But consistency was reportedly the main issue with him. In particular, he didn't practice as well as he played - and that explain why he disappeared at times on gameday. Will Merling effectively take the next step and up his performance to a new level as he replaces the effective veteran as a starter?

The other player who will have the heat on him is nose tackle Paul Soliai. We all know that the 3-4 defense doesn't work without effective play from the nose. Jason Ferguson is still a very good player and does his job well. But he's got a lot of mileage on his body. He'll need to be rested more in 2009. There's also always a higher risk of injury with an aging defensive lineman. Can Soliai step up this year and prove he's a capable alternative to Ferguson at the nose?

THE NUMBERS GAME

Last year, the Dolphins carried eight defensive linemen into the regular season. Six of them were defensive ends and two were nose tackles. I'd expect a similar breakdown this year once the final 53-man roster is set. Like I said above, Langford, Merling, and Ferguson are locks. All three are penciled in to be starters. Merling could play his way out of a starting role with a bad camp. But the other two are probably locked in to their starting roles.

This leaves potentially five roster spots for reserves. At least one will go to a nose tackle. Tony McDaniel, who the Dolphins acquired from the Jaguars in a trade this past offseason, could potentially play both nose tackle and defensive end. His versatility could mean the Dolphins aren't necessarily locked into the previously described 6:2 defensive end to nose tackle ratio.

Also note that the Dolphins tended to dress six defensive linemen on gameday and leave two inactive. Four of the active defensive linemen were ends and two were nose tackles. Again, McDaniel's potential versatility could make their 45-man gameday roster more flexible if Tony can impress the coaches and make the team.

WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE US?

Everything above basically means that we have eight players fighting for just five roster spots. But like I said at the beginning, I don't expect too many surprises from this unit in terms of which five reserves make the roster and which three fall short. Perhaps Joe Cohen or Louis Ellis could surprise and win the backup nose tackle job. But more realistically, those two young potential nose tackles could be battling each other for one practice squad spot.

The interesting storyline to watch in terms of the five reserve linemen will be how they position themselves within the defensive line rotation. With Phillip Merling moving from top reserve linemen to starter, the role of top reserve will be open to battle. Randy Starks, Tony McDaniel, and Lionel Dotson will likely all be fighting it out.

Rodrique Wright is entering what is likely his final chance to prove his worth to this regime once camp begins. He spent the 2008 season on the 53-man roster but was inactive for all 16 regular season games. As it stands now, he's probably the eighth defensive linemen on the depth chart. But we know that this regime is not afraid to constantly turn over the bottom portion of the roster - meaning Wright's time in Miami could definitely be winding down.

THE KEY BATTLE

I quickly touched on it above, but I wanted to focus on it here. I think the key battle among defensive linemen will be the battle to take Merling's old role as the top reserve at end. Randy Starks probably enters camp as the favorite. He received a lot of playing time off the bench himself last season and is a very versatile player. He could line up at defensive end or defensive tackle depending on if the Dolphins use three or four down linemen. He even played a little nose last season.

Lionel Dotson will certainly be in the mix for this role as well. He spent all of his rookie season last year on the 53-man roster, but was inactive for 14 of the team's 16 regular season games. However, it's believed that the coaching staff really likes this kid. It's also been reported that some of Miami's offensive linemen that had to face Dotson in practice day in and day out last year said he had the best pass-rushing moves among all of the defensive ends.

Tony McDaniel will the the third player in the battle to be the primary backup at defensive end. He's a massive man - measuring in at 6'7, 305 pounds. He's got long arms and the kind of frame that is well suited for the defensive end position in a 3-4. But he'll also get some looks at nose tackle as well. He's also converting from spending most of his time in a 4-3 defense, so he'll need time to adapt. But certainly don't count him out. He'll be in line for some role within Miami's rotation.

THE PREDICTION

Merling, Langford, and Ferguson are all safe. Despite his potential legal trouble, Starks is probably safe as well. Soliai needs to show improved conditioning - but it seems like he is probably going to make the team. I'd also say both Dotson and McDaniel will make the roster, though I'm not sure who will be ahead of the other. Right now, Wright probably eeks out that final roster spot along the defensive front. But like I said, it wouldn't be surprising if the eighth defensive linemen heading into the regular season isn't even on the team yet.

Around the AFC East: Ranking the division's defensive tackles

Brian Galliford — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Browse more photos »

It's Friday, which means the bloggers of all four AFC East teams at SB Nation are back at the ranking game. Over the past two weeks, Matty I, MaPatsFan, John B and myself have spent some time ranking the division's running backs and linebackers. Since the conversations surrounding those topics have been excellent, we're continuing the ranking game this morning.

Last week's linebacker rankings were rather dull, considering there isn't much to seriously debate - particularly when considering how evenly matched and ill-tempered the running back rankings were. Today we're making a valiant attempt to get back to even ground. In case you hadn't noticed, the AFC East is chock-full of outstanding defensive tackles. There are big names throughout the division - Vince Wilfork, Kris Jenkins, Jason Ferguson, and the Buffalo Bills' very own Marcus Stroud. The depth throughout the division is also rather terrific.

Head on in past the jump for my rankings, and be sure to check out The Phinsider, Pats Pulpit and Gang Green Nation for rival rankings as well. Then let the debate begin!

1. New England Patriots - Vince Wilfork is probably the most dominant nose tackle in the league. The man is a mountain, and he's blocked like one, too. But it doesn't stop there for New England - they drafted another stout porker in the second round when they snagged BC's Ron Brace to back Wilfork up. Brace has a shot to play 3-4 nose tackle for a long time in this league (unless, of course, Wilfork prevents him from doing so). Mike Wright can moonlight at nose tackle, but he's athletic enough to play end for Bill Belichick as well. The best player and the most enviable depth? Putting the Patriots at the top of this list was relatively easy.

2. New York Jets - Look, I'm just glad that I didn't have to put the Jets at the top of the list this week, as they took my top spot at both running back and linebacker. Kris Jenkins is excellent as the anchor of that defense - just ask Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston. The team brought in veteran Howard Green to back Jenkins up at the nose (which Sione Pouha can do as well), and Green can play a little end as well. This is a big and versatile group.

3. Buffalo Bills - It's quite strange to try to fit the Bills into a group like this because their defensive scheme is so vastly different from the rivals'. In particular, the two schemes call for the biggest personnel differences at the DT position. Buffalo's personnel is lighter and quicker than the rest of the division's tackles simply because they're being asked to do different things. Marcus Stroud is still an upper-echelon tackle in the league, and the unheralded Kyle Williams is solid too. Spencer Johnson offers some athleticism and versatility in reserve, and if John McCargo can finally make good on his vast potential, the Bills will be quite deep at this position.

4. Miami Dolphins - Jason Ferguson has been an excellent nose tackle in this league for a long time, but he's far closer to "relic" status than any other player at the position as well. Ferguson will be fine this year, but in their haste to address their weak defensive backfield in free agency, the Dolphins missed the boat on securing the future at their most important defensive position. (Not that they didn't need to fix their secondary.) The depth behind Ferguson consists of Tony McDaniel, Joe Cohen and Paul Soliai - not necessarily in that order. The depth isn't great, and while Ferguson is an exemplary pro and a great fit for the Bill Parcells defense, it nonetheless places Miami last on this list.

3 Up and 3 Down

Matty I — Thu, 21 May 2009 04:15:09 -0000

This is the first of what I hope to be a weekly feature here at The Phinsider throughout the remainder of the offseason. The idea is simple - I'll tackle some Dolphin-related topic and give my thoughts on it by focusing on three positives and three negatives.

To kick things off today, I have picked a topic that is sure to at least generate a little debate.

THREE OFFSEASON MOVES I LIKED

1. Focusing on the secondary - Last offseason, the Dolphins focused on improving the lines on both sides of the ball. This offseason, with the team's most glaring weakness being the secondary, the Dolphins went and addressed it even before the official beginning of free agency be signing safety Gibril Wilson and teaming him with Yeremiah Bell, who the Fins re-signed the same day. They then brought in Eric Green from Arizona (who I hope doesn't have to be anything more than a 3rd or 4th corner) and selected two cornerbacks in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft - including one of my favorite players, Sean Smith. While I wouldn't expect huge contributions from the two rookies - Smith and Vontae Davis - in 2009, I do think that both will see plenty of action and improve the overall depth of the secondary.

2. The return of Jason Taylor - It goes without saying that all Dolphin fans love this guy - or at least, they used to. And the way Taylor's return to Miami went down really makes it hard to hold any hard feelings towards JT. He has come in, said all the right things, accepted whatever his role in Miami will be, and has made it clear that his heart has always been in Miami - even last year while playing up in DC. Now let's just hope that Taylor's return to Miami is the beginning of a storybook ending for a South Florida sports icon.

3. Declaring Chad Pennington the 2009 starter - One of the most hotly debated topics this offseason began with Tony Sparano informing the media in the wake of the playoff loss to Baltimore that Chad Pennington was his guy and would be the starter entering 2009. I know we all love competitions and we all are hoping and praying that Chad Henne becomes the franchise quarterback this franchise has longed for since a certain #13 retired. But I can't help but love how Tony Sparano and this coaching staff came right out and were honest and up front rather than holding a mockery of a "quarterback competition" like we might have seen from previous regimes in Miami. Pennington put together an MVP-type season in '08 and declaring him the starter heading into '09 was the right thing to do.

THREE OFFSEASON MOVES I QUESTION

1. Not adding enough interior offensive line help - It's easy to say this now following the latest injury to Donald Thomas, who was expected to start at right guard this year. But I felt this way even before Thomas went down. While I'm a fan of signing Jake Grove because he is an upgrade over Samson Satele, he also has a history of missing games due to injury. Meanwhile, Thomas and Justin Smiley were both entering the 2009 offseason with serious health issues. But despite having three starters at guard and center who have injury questions and/or injury histories, the Dolphins traded away Satele - instead of keeping him for depth at center and guard - and brought in just one veteran - Joe Berger - and failed to draft a single guard in the draft. And it's easy to say this now after Donald's latest injury, but you can't tell me the Dolphins wouldn't be in better shape right now if they had taken Duke Robinson rather than Brian Hartline or John Nalbone.

2. Not adding a potential long-term nose tackle - I know that the Dolphins signed undrafted free agent Louis Ellis. But I can't say that I wouldn't have preferred acquiring a young veteran or drafting a more highly-touted prospect like Terrance Taylor or Sammie Lee Hill. The 3-4 defense will not work without a quality nose tackle so now we have to hope that the aging Jason Ferguson can stay healthy and that either Louis Ellis, Paul Soliai, or Joe Cohen can give Jason a breather at times and could step in as a full-time player if absolutely necessary.

3. Signing Eric Green and passing on slightly more expensive options - Above I said I loved how the Dolphins made it a priority to upgrade their secondary. But I did make it a point to say that I hope Eric Green doesn't have a big role. Simply put, I am not confident at all in his ability. But the Dolphins signed Green to a 2 year, $6 million deal. For the same amount of years and $2 million extra per year, the Fins could have signed Bryant McFadden. Instead, he went to Arizona - Green's former team. I can't sit here and say I'm not a little disappointed in this decision. But I'll hope for the best.

The Art (and Science) of Drafting: IId. The McNolan Era (2005-2008)

Florida Danny — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 00:00:14 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry about the delay in getting this one posted. My computer crashed yesterday because a genius (aka me) let the battery run out, so I had to wait until it fully recharged (aka today) to continue writing up the piece.

Yesterday, in Part 2c of my review of 49er draft history, I broke down the Donahue regime's picks from 2002-2004 by round, position, and conference. Just to refresh everyone's memory, here was my description of Donahue's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks, especially when your team sucks.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
I <3 the Pac-10!
BCS or die!

In comparison with the Walsh II and Policy regimes, Donahue didn't make the Policy regime mistake of trading away picks when the team was good (2002), he used Walsh II's strategy of drafting for need on Day 1 when rebuilding, he brought back the Policy regime's affinity for Pac-10 players, and he surpassed both Walsh II and the Policy regime in percentage of picks that came from BCS conferences

In this article, I'll be ending the regime breakdowns with a look at the McNolan era (2005-2008).

After the jump, I'll put the McNolan drafts in context; break the results down by position, draft day, and conference; sum up the regimes; and provide the idiot's guide to McNolan draft strategy...

Here again is the link to my Excel spreadsheet of 49er draft picks in the Salary Cap Era. I realized that some of you probably don't have Excel 2007, so I converted it to be compatible with older versions (and fixed the link in previous posts as well):

49er Draft Picks 1994-2008

IN CONTEXT

In Part 2c, I told you how Donahue didn't hit the home run he needed to with his rebuilding project in the 2004 draft. One additional piece of evidence for this is the fact that, by the very next draft, Donahue's replacements had to rebuild the roster once more through the draft. Therefore, Donahue's 2004 fire sale and draft has to rank among the shortest rebuilding phases of a franchise in the history of sports (and not in a good way). Now, I'm sure you don't need some long-winded description of what the team has done record-wise since 2004, so I'll just get on with the specific needs in each of McNolan's drafts:

2005 Draft - Key Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson (free agency), OL Kyle Kosier (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (career-threatening injury), OL Scott Gragg (free agency), DL John Engelberger (trade), DB Ronnie Heard (free agency), K Todd Peterson (free agency). Weak 2004 Stats: 30^th in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA; 19^th in ST DVOA.¹ Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for QB Jeff Garcia, RB Garrison Hearst, WR Terrell Owens, and DB Zack Bronson; major injuries to QB Tim Rattay, LB Andre Carter, DB Ahmed Plummer. Needs: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, K, LB depth.

2006 Draft - Key Losses: QB Tim Rattay (trade), RB Kevan Barlow (trade), FB Fred Beasley (free agency), WR Brandon Lloyd (trade), WR Johnnie Morton (released), LB Julian Peterson (free agency), LB Andre Carter (free agency), and DB Ahmed Plummer (career-threatening injury). Weak 2005 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Garcia, Hearst, Owens, and Bronson; major injury to TE Eric Johnson. Needs: FB, WR, LB, DB, QB depth, RB depth, TE depth.

2007 Draft - Key Losses: WR Antonio Bryant (released), TE Eric Johnson (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (free agency), and DB Tony Parrish (released). Weak 2006 Stats: 22^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA; 18^th in ST DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bronson; OL Larry Allen and DL Bryant Young now in their mid-30s. Needs: WR, DB, ST, TE depth, OL depth, DL depth.

2008 Draft - Key Losses: WR Darrell Jackson (free agency), OL Larry Allen (retirement), OL Justin Smiley (free agency), DL Bryant Young (retirement), DL Marques Douglas (free agency), and LB Derek Smith (free agency). Weak 2007 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bryant; major injuries to QB Alex Smith, OL Jonas Jennings, and LB Manny Lawson. Needs: WR, OL, DL, LB, QB depth.

In preparation for its drafts, McNolan has had to deal with about 7 key losses per offseason, which is fewer than Walsh II (8), but more than Donahue (4) and the Policy regime (4). Interestingly, the course of McNolan's tenure has seen a mixture of his 3 predecessors' draft contexts. The 2005 and 2006 offseasons were Walshian, with about 8 key self-induced, salary-cap-caused losses per season that generally involved kicking dead weight to the curb or trading it for draft picks. The 2007 offseason was Donahue-esque, with only 4 key losses and a team feeling good about itself after a promising season. Finally, 2008 was Policy-like in that there were two retirements to deal with. Overall, I'd say the most similar previous context to McNolan's was the Walsh II era.

I know this is totally off-topic, but, Cedrick Wilson may have made the greatest career decision in the history of the NFL by signing with PIT after the 2004 season. If he stays in SF, he's stuck on a 6-win team for the foreseeable future (at least until he roughed up his ex-girlfriend) catching passes from Rattay, Smith, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, and Chris Weinke. Instead, he goes to PIT and wins a ring his first season with the team catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger. Seriously, whatever it was that made him leave the Niners, he needs to bottle and sell it. Can you guys think of any other player in recent years who's lucked out like that?

Anyway, back to the regularly scheduled program. For the sake of comparison, here's how McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup in 2005 and 2006:

Morton (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Wilson
Snyder (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Kosier
OL Eric Heitmann (2002 Donahue draft pick) for Newberry
OL Kwame Harris (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Gragg
Douglas (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Engelberger (after moving Young to 3-4 DE)
DB Mike Adams (2003 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Heard
K Joe Nedney (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Todd Peterson
Smith (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Rattay
RB Frank Gore (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Barlow
FB Moran Norris (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Beasley
Bryant (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Lloyd
WR Arnaz Battle (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Morton
Lawson (2006 McNolan draft pick) for Julian Peterson
LB Brandon Moore (2002 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Carter (after moving him to 4-3 ROLB)
DB Shawntae Spencer (2004 Donahue draft pick) for Plummer (after moving him to LCB)

Adding it all up, McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup with 5 traditional free agents, 4 draft picks, and 6 players originally acquired by Donahue. Comparing this to the previous regimes, McNolan used free agency more than Walsh II and Donahue, but less than Policy; and they had a "holdover rate" of 33.3%, which was smack dab in between Walsh II (16.7%) and Donahue (50.0%).

So there's the context. Hopefully you sense a pattern emerging here: the contexts of McNolan drafts have been a cocktail of issues and solutions having the ingredients of each predecessor; 2 ½ parts Walsh II, 1 part Donahue, and ½ part Policy.

PICKS, PICKS, AND MORE PICKS

From 2005-2008, the 49ers made 35 selections in the NFL draft, which nearly equalled the Walsh II and Donahue rate of 9 picks per season. In 2005 and 2006, the main rebuilding years, McNolan stockpiled picks via all those trades I mentioned earlier; just like Walsh II and Donahue. The past 2 drafts, however, McNolan has tended to trade away picks (you're welcome, NE) rather than stockpile them; just like the Policy regime. Once again, the trend here is for McNolan to be a mixture of all 3 predecessor's strengths and weaknesses.

In terms of McNolan's overall Pro Bowl rate, a Donahue-esque and Walshian 5.7% of its picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers (Gore and LB Patrick Willis). However, its starter rate of 34.3% - which includes OL Chilo Rachal's midseason and DB Dashon Goldson's offseason ascensions - is the worst of the 4 regimes (Policy regime = 41.4%; Walsh II = 48.1%; Donahue = 48.1%). When you remember the differences in context between regimes, you realize that McNolan has been way worse at picking starters than the context-similar Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse than the context-different Policy regime, whose superior teams made it harder for draft picks to crack the starting lineup (i.e., the Policy regime's starter rate is artificially low due to context).

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has continued the Walsh II and Donahue standard of 9 draft picks per season.
McNolan has stockpiled picks when the team sucked, and traded away picks when (they thought) the team was good.
McNolan has been as bad at picking Pro Bowlers as the "unlikely to have Pro Bowlers because the team sucked" Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse at picking starters than the "unlikely to have draft selections start because the team was good" Policy regime.
Overall, McNolan seems to be channeling the good and bad of its 3 predecessors.

DAY ‘N' NIGHT

McNolan has taken exactly 40% of its picks on Day 1 of the draft, and 60% on Day 2. That's almost identical to Walsh II's 41/59 split, which, as I said in Part 2c, was smack dab between the Policy (52/48) and Donahue (33/67) regimes.

Looking at the relative success of its picks by draft day, we find that 64.3% of McNolan's Day 1 picks have become 49er starters, which is, again, right in the middle of the 4 regimes; not as good as Walsh II's (81.8%, which I incorrectly reported as 64.3% in Part 2b), but basically on par with the Policy regime's (60.0%) and Donahue's (55.6%). Remember, though that Walsh II and Donahue are the better comparisons in terms of team context. On Day 2, an abysmal 14.3% of McNolan picks have become 49er starters, easily the worst of the 4 regimes (again, even worse than the starter-unlikely Policy regime). So while McNolan has had pretty standard success on Day 1 in terms of starters, it's been horrible at picking Day 2 starters.

The best example of this dichotomy between Day 1 and Day 2 results is McNolan's initial rebuilding draft in 2005. Here it is:

Rd	Player	Pos	Starter?	Pro Bowl?
1	Alex Smith	QB	Yes	No
2	David Baas	OL	Yes	No
3	Frank Gore	RB	Yes	Yes
3	Adam Snyder	OL	Yes	No
5	Ronald Fields	DL	No	No
5	Rasheed Marshall	WR	No	No
6	Derrick Johnson	DB	No	No
7	Daven Holly	DB	No	No
7	Marcus Maxwell	WR	No	No
7	Patrick Estes	TE	No	No
7	Billy Bajema	TE	Yes	No

Day 1? 4 picks, 4 starters, 1 Pro Bowler. Day 2? 7 picks, 1 starter, 0 Pro Bowlers. Enough said.

With regard to Pro Bowlers, however, the preferred drink is once again "Regime Cocktail." On Day 1, 14.3% of McNolan's picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers, which is slightly worse than the Pro-Bowl-likely Policy regime (20.0%), considerably better than Donahue (0.0%), and slightly better than Walsh II (9.1%). OK, correction: McNolan drinks Regime Cocktail only on Day 1. That's because, it has yet to pick a Day 2 Pro Bowler. Of course, it's not like the other two Pro-Bowl-unlikely regimes (Walsh II = 6.3%; Donahue = 5.3%) were much better at it.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has had a Walshian 40/60 split of picks between Day 1 and Day 2.
McNolan has been worse than Walsh II, but better than Donahue, at picking Day 1 starters.
McNolan has been far less successful than the other 3 regimes at picking Day 2 starters.
McNolan has been more successful than Walsh II and Donahue at picking Day 1 Pro Bowlers, but slightly worse than these two regimes at picking Day 2 Pro Bowlers.

ASSUME THE POSITION

Here's how McNolan has used its 35 picks by position, unit, and draft day:

Pos	Day 1	Day 2	Total
QB	1	0	1
RB	1	1	2
FB	0	0	0
WR	2	5	7
TE	1	2	3
OL	4	1	5
DL	2	5	7
LB	2	1	3
DB	1	6	7
K	0	0	0
P	0	0	0
OFF Total	9	9	18
DEF Total	5	12	17
ST Total	0	0	0
Total	14	21	35

Overall, McNolan has basically split their picks up evenly between units, which is more similar to what the Policy regime and Donahue did than Walsh II's need-induced DEF preference. Also, like Walsh, McNolan hasn't taken any ST players in the draft. Of course, that may have something to do with having Nedney and ROBO-PUNTER on the roster. What's most interesting here, however, is that, although OFF has received equal attention on Days 1 and 2, 70.6% of McNolan's DEF picks have come on Day 2.

The even split of OFF picks between draft days is a little misleading because McNolan was actually Walshian in 2005 and 2006 when it had to replace most of the OFF. Going back to that 2005 draft that I showed earlier, you'll notice that all 4 Day 1 picks were on OFF. This continued in 2006 when they selected TE Vernon Davis in the 1^st round after Johnson suffered a major injury the previous season. Essentially, McNolan followed the Walsh II example of spending Day 1 of rebuilding drafts addressing the most glaring positional needs. This is really eye-opening when you consider that Scot McCloughan claims to be a devout believer in "best player available." Is he full of sh*t or is the focus on need in Day 1 of the 2005 and 2006 drafts just a coincidence? I'll leave you to decide.

DEF, however, is a different animal altogether. From the table, it's clear that the draft day disparity on DEF has been due to an inordinate amount of Day 2 picks being spent on DLs and DBs. The 5 Day 2 DLs were, in order of selection, Ronald Fields, Parys Haralson, Melvin Oliver, Jay Moore, and Joe Cohen; the 6 Day 2 DBs were Derrick Johnson, Daven Holly, Marcus Hudson, Vickiel Vaughn, Goldson, and Tarell Brown. Looking at these lists, you could say that McNolan has gotten worse over time picking Day 2 DLs, whereas it's gotten better over time picking Day 2 DBs. Either way, aside from Haralson and Goldson, that's a pretty mediocre-at-best bunch. So, if you want to know why the DEF has sucked for so long (before Singletary pulled their heads out of their asses), look no further than McNolan mostly waiting until Day 2 to pick DEF players. Couple this with McNolan's aforementioned horrible starter rate on Day 2, and you get one wet, stinking heap of also-ran-ity.

With 71.4% of picks taken on Day 2, WR is another position at which McNolan has focused little Day 1 attention. The two Day 1 WRs were Brandon Williams and Jason Hill, both 3^rd-rounders.

Hopefully, you're starting to see a trend here. McNolan gets credit for using Walsh II's "pick for need on Day 1" and "bites at the apple" strategies. However, it's made the mistake of waiting until Day 2 to take most of their bites at DL, DB, and WR. Perhaps, then, one reason why the Niners haven't been able to get over the mediocre 7-9 hump since 2005 is because their WR, DL, and DB corps are populated with Day 2 picks.

To drive it home, here's one last point about McNolan's (lack of) success wtith DEF picks. On OFF, McNolan's starter rate (44.4%) has been similar to that of the Policy regime (43.8%), Walsh II (50.0%), and Donahue (46.2%). However, the DEF starter rates for the previous 3 regimes were 47.1% for Walsh II, 41.7% for Donahue, and 33.3% for the Policy regime. McNolan's? 23.5%!

All is not lost, however. Unlike Donahue, McNolan seems to have actually learned something about positional picks as its tenure has progressed. Namely, 2 of their 3 picks in 2008 were DEF players. Whether or not DL Kentwan Balmer and DB Reggie Smith pan out in the long run, at least McNolan seems to have noticed that their previous Day 1 picks on DEF have become integral parts of the starting unit. Don't believe me? Here they are: Lawson, Willis, and DL Ray McDonald. So, their results - 2 starters, 1 Pro Bowler, and an emerging pass-rush specialist - were not shabby at all. This suggests that (a) when McNolan commits Day 1 resources to DEF, it's been pretty successful; and (b) the regime seems to have figured this out. So, at the very least, kudos to them for that.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Walsh II, McNolan has focused its Day 1 picks on the most glaring positional needs (when it had to).
McNolan has employed Walsh II's "bites at the apple" strategy at WR, DL, and DB. However, they've primarily waited until Day 2 to take their bites.
Given their propensity for waiting until Day 2 for DEF picks, it's not surprising that McNolan has been horrible at drafting DEF starters.
Based on 2008, McNolan seems to have learned from their "wait until Day 2 for DEF" mistake.

CONFERENCE ROOM

So far, I've basically told a story about how the McNolan regime's drafts have been a little bit Walsh II, a little bit Donahue, and a little bit Policy; how they've used the good strategies as well as the bad. Basically, not too hot, not too cold; I'll call it "Goldilocks" if you will. The conference breakdown is where that tale ends. There's one regime's lead in particular that McNolan has been happy to follow, and I'm sure you'll easily be able to figure it out. Here's how McNolan's 35 picks shake out by conference: 7 ACC picks, 7 SEC picks, 6 Big 12 picks, 6 Pac-10 picks, 4 Big 10 picks, 1 Big East pick, 1 Conference USA pick, 1 MAC pick, 1 MAII pick, and 1 MWC pick.

BCS anyone? McNolan has taken a Donahue-esque 88.6% of its picks from BCS conferences. I already detailed in Part 2c what I think of this strategy, so you know by now that I don't like it. Now, Scot McCloughan has argued that he takes BCS players because they're (a) less affected by big crowds, (b) more prepared for the NFL, and (c) better team leaders. While all of these may be true in a general sense, the draft isn't about generalities. It's about identifying and acquiring specific talented players. I'm sorry, but when you limit your available talent pool to 6 or 7 college football conferences, you're going to miss the "diamonds in the rough" that teams need to sustain success. Also, McCloughan has made it seem like picking players from BCS conferences is only a Day 1 strategy. The stats say the opposite though: A higher percentage of McNolan's Day 2 picks have come from BCS conferences (90.5%) than have its Day 2 picks (88.6%). Oh, and did I mention that McNolan's first pick ever was a QB from a non-BCS conference (Smith), and that they traded up in 2007 to take an OL from a non-BCS conference (Joe Staley)? That's 2 of McNolan's 4 non-BCS picks being taken with 1^st-round picks. Again, is he BSing us here or is this some kind of smokescreen? It's pretty interesting how a general BCS guy like McCloughan can fall in love so much with specific non-BCS players.

And now, I present a second way in which McNolan's conference preferences are similar to Donahue's: They suck just as bad at picking BCS players despite being so BCS-reliant. Wait, let me correct that. They suck even worse. Here's the evidence:

McNolan
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	10	2	12
No	21	2	23
Total	31	4	35

Donahue
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	12	1	13
No	13	1	14
Total	25	2	27

You'll recall from Part 2c that Donahue's BCS starter rate (48.0%) was worse than Walsh II's (62.5%) even though Donahue was much more BCS-heavy with his picks. Well, even Donahue's sorry BCS starter rate makes him look like a draft maven when compared to McNolan's. That's because, as the table shows, only 32.3% of McNolan's BCS picks have become regular 49er starters! As I said in Part 2c, if you're going to be limiting your talent pool so drastically, you better be good at evaluating the talent you don't ignore. Clearly, McNolan has not been good in this regard, and has been even worse than the guy for which I invented the argument.

Now, I argued in Part 2c that Donahue's preference for BCS players and lack of success in actually picking good ones was borne out of his dispositional laziness and inattention to draft detail. With respect to McNolan, however, I'm sure this hasn't been the case. To its credit, the McNolan regime has been almost pathologically engaged in draft preparation. After all, they coached the Senior Bowl 3 straight seasons, Scot McLoughan was Director of College Scouting for the Seahawks, and Scot's brother, David, now serves in the same capacity for the 49ers. So I'm kind of perplexed as to why, given their affinity for evaluating college talent, McNolan has shied away from non-BCS players. One might argue that it's because of the Alex Smith experience. However, as has been noted, McLoughan remains a big Smith supporter. So what gives here? Please help.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Donahue, almost every player McNolan has drafted has been from a BCS conference.
Despite its BCS-lust, the McNolan regime has had an even worse BCS starter rate than Donahue.

GENERAL ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION

As I've alluded to throughout this article, the McNolan drafts can be described by one word: Goldilocks. In other words, their porridge hasn't been too hot and it hasn't been too cold; just lukewarm. Here's the evidence:

McNolan's draft contexts have been a mixture of its 3 predecessors' contexts.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's "draft vs. free agency" bias.
McNolan's stockpiled picks in rebuilding drafts ala Walsh II, but also traded away picks in "we feel good about ourselves right now" drafts ala the Policy regime.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's Day1/Day 2 split.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of Day 1 starter and Pro Bowl rate.
McNolan has evenly split their picks between OFF and DEF overall.
McNolan's used Walsh's "bites at the apple" strategy, but only on Day 2.
McNolan's been on par with previous regimes in terms of picking OFF starters.
Though it's made Donahue-esque draft strategy errors, McNolan's either learned from those mistakes or has a more valid reason for why they've made them.

All in all, it sure seems like the McNolan regime has been a mixture of the good and bad of the 3 previous 49er regimes. They rebuilt like Walsh II in 2005 and 2006, but they sat on their laurels like Donahue and the Policy regime in 2007. They draft for need on Day 1 like Walsh II, but, like Donahue, only when they have to. They take a lot of bites at the apple like Walsh, but they wait until Day 2 to do it. You get the picture.

To me, understanding the Goldilocks nature of McNolan drafts helps explain why the 49ers have been stuck in "no better than 7-9" mode for the past 3 seasons. If you draft a propensity of mediocre players, or if you have a bunch of mediocre drafts, you're going to find yourself having a mediocre team. Here, another word comes to mind that has been used - with great comic effect - to describe McNolan: vanilla.

In evaluating the 4 Niner regimes since 1994, something has become very clear to me; something that I didn't fully realize until I got to McNolan. Bill Walsh was the only 49er GM in the past 15 years who went out and tried to be great in the draft. He's the only one who tried to bat 1.000 every time he stepped to the plate. The Policy regime was content to sustain success through free agency, Donahue was content to ride the coattails of Walsh II's drafts, and McNolan has been content to only be great on Day 1. Is it any wonder then that the Walsh II regime was the only one that had an upward win trajectory? Is it a coincidence that Walsh was the only GM to leave the 49ers better off than when he arrived? I mean, the 49ers regressed under the Policy regime and Donahue, and they've stagnated in 7-9 territory under McNolan. After reading my regime breakdowns, do you have any doubt that one important reason for this is because Walsh II's draft strategy differed so drastically from that of McNolan, Donahue, and the Policy regime? In re McNolan, do you think that the "hybrid" defense, not giving Hill the QB job outright, and not firing Nolan after 2007 can be described by any other word except "vanilla?"

Whether it's McSingle nee McNolan or someone else, until the person/people in charge of running the 49ers' drafts stop placing artificial constraints on themselves, and start trying to be great with every pick- by whatever means necessary - I fear the Niners are going to wallow in mediocrity.

Here's a perfect example of what I mean. The Niners need a pass rusher right now more than anything. Go out and draft the best damned pass rusher. If the consensus best pass rusher isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the pass rusher you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the Calfornia Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK pass rusher and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

Another example. Right now, you have an arguable draft bust, a good but ragged-armed journeyman, and a player KC didn't even want as your QBs. Go out and draft the best damned QB. Do whatever it takes. If the consensus best QB isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the QB you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the California Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK QB and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

You know what team drafts like this? The New England Patriots. But that's Part 3, so you'll have to wait until tomorrow to hear the details. For now, here's the idiot's guide to the McNolan regime's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks when your team sucks, but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.
BCS or die!
We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).

So, based on this strategy, as well as some specific draft history trends that you can find in my Excel spreadsheet, here's what (and what not) to expect from the 49ers in the 2009 draft:

Don't expect them to take more than 1 player from a non-BCS conference.
Don't expect them to take a pass rusher, QB, or WR at #10.
Don't expect them to take a RB on Day 1.
Expect them to take a WR or two on Day 2.
Expect them to take an OL on Day 1.
Expect more DEF picks (esp. DLs and DBs) on Day 2 than Day 1.
Don't expect them to take a FB, K, or P.

Remember, this is what I expect them to do or not do based on their history. If they end up going against tendency, it's not because the tendencies were wrongly identified. It's because they did something that was unexpected given their history. And there's no harm in that. It's actually worked once or twice (See Willis, Patrick).

That's it for now. Tomorrow, I'll compare the overall 49er draft strategy since 1994, which I identified in Part 1, to that of the Patriots. TO BE CONTINUED...

¹ DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How much blame would you assign McNolan's drafts for the 49ers continuously being unable to take that next step in recent seasons?

All of the blame

37 votes

Most of the blame

83 votes

Some of the blame

103 votes

None of the blame

9 votes

232 votes | Poll has closed

Recent Draft History: San Francisco 49ers

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 20:00:09 -0000

2008 Draft:

1 (29) Kentwan Balmer, DT Backup

Not exactly a hot start for the rookie, collecting almost as many kick returns as he had tackles, all on special teams. With the anticipated switch to a 3-4 the Niners are just hoping he has the ability to move over to DE. It will probably be a suitable move that gets him on the field, as he has the length and ability to take on blockers and force double teams.

2 (39) Chilo Rachal, OG STARTER

With the advent of new Head Coach Mike Singletary, Rachal went from benchwarmer to starter. He appears to have the starting guard spot locked down, and shows the athleticism to be moved out on the edge if needed, should the Niners find themselves in a good position to target Guards in the draft.

3 (75) Reggie Smith, CB Backup

The latest addition of the highly targeted CB spot for the niners. Smith saw action on special teams, but where it gets interesting for him is his experience as a SS. While he doesn't quite have the range to drop all the way back as a FS, he certainly has the versatility to give the Niners optional looks and packages in their secondary. No doubt he will be around for awhile, as an intriguing set of possibilities.

4 (107) Cody Wallace, C Backup

Wallace will get some time to develop on the bench, as C Eric Heitmann recieved a contract extension to go along with arguably his best year as the Niner's center. Wallace is solid depth, and should be ready to step in if there wre to be interior line injuries.

6 (171) Josh Morgan, WR Backup

Morgan should get an opportunity to compete for first team reps, after a rookie season that started out with a lot of promise during the pre-season, but hit the brakes after a staph infection and then a groin injury sidelined him. He has good size/strength, and could be a playmaker if he can build up some solid connections with whomever ends up QBing the niners.

7 (214) Larry Grant, OLB Backup/Rams

Was poached early from San Francisco's practice squad, and now serves as an inexperiencd strongside backup for the Rams.

2007 Draft:

1 (11) Patrick Willis, LB STARTER

A solid all around LBer who led the league in tackles as a rookie, and who made strides in an already impressive game in his second year by becoming even more effective pass defender.

1 (28) Joe Staley, OT STARTER

He came at the cost of a future #1 starter, but the move so far looks solid, as Staley was exemplary in starting duties as a RT rookie. After a sophmore move to LT he struggled, giving up a number of sacks as he adjusted to the cream of the crop when it comes to defensive pass rushers. But after settling in in the latter half of the season, all signs point toward this young T being with the organization for a while.

3 (76) Jason Hill, WR Backup

This could be the key season for Hill, who could either line up a starting spot for himself, or drift back into the ranks of obscurity and eventual dismissal. After underachieving through an injury pagued rookie season, he was off to a less than stellar start in 08. But with injuries to the starting WR and the coaching transition midway through the season, Hill managed to step up and start putting some production with his measurables. Expect a great WR battle in training camp as Hill looks to solidify his spot on the roster.

3 (97) Ray McDonald, DE STARTER

A solid player developing nicely, he suffers from his lack of instincts, as seen by the number of penalties he draws. He is a starter for now, but the 49ers will actively look to get some more competition at the position.

4 (104) Jay Moore, OLB Backup

A solid player who has been plagued by injuries for the Niners. Last year the injury occurred in the pre-season, losing him an entire season's worht of practice time and development. This is likely his last chance to make an impact,a nd if he can't stay healthy and produce, he may be cut at the first opportunity.

4 (126) Dashon Goldson, S Backup

After limited use in his rookie campaign, he caught the coaches' eyes leading up to and during the 2008 season, but nothing ever came of it. In danger of becoming a "Workout wonder" Goldson needs to focus on his game and work to get himself moved into the starting lineup, and there was never a time as good as now, with limited options on the roster, in free agency or the draft. Word out of the 49ers camp is that they are willing to give him the first crack at the job...

4 (135) Joe Cohen, NT Backup/Miami

After an ACL injury sent him to IR in the preseason, he was subsequently waived and picked up by the Dolphins, where he will be in competition for the starter/backup position vacated by Vonnie Holliday.

5 (147) Tarell Brown, CB Backup

After a lackluster rookie campaign followed by off-field trouble, Brown stepped in after injuries sidelined the #2 corner, and didn't play terribly in his duties covering the slot. He will likely be given an opportunity to take the starting job in training camp, but the more likely scenario is settling in as the #3 corner.

6 (186) Thomas Clayton, RB Backup

After spending much of his career ont he practic squad, he was activated to hedge against Frank Gore's injuries, but no starting or even playing time ever really materialized for him. Solid depth, but an unknown quantity that may just need an opportunity to step up.

2006 Draft

1 (6) Vernon Davis, TE STARTER

Though this pickup will long be contested, there is legitimate worries as to his long term viability as a pass catcher. With clay hands and the inability to catch away from his body, Davis may be best suited to an H-bak role, where he is given the ball in space and asked to produce, as he has the physical tools to dominate after the catch. One area that is worht every dime, however, is his runblocking.

1 (22) Manny Lawson, LB STARTER

After a solid rookie campaign that included a rookie fo the week honor, he lost most of his 2007 development to an ACL tear in practice, and went to IR immediately. His return in 2008 saw a somewhat less explosive and quick player, no doubt due to the injury. As a key component of the run stopping game and TE coverage, Lawson has his spot locked up, but he needs a full, consistent year in order to look towards his future again.

3 (84) Brandon Williams, WR/KR Backup/Steelers

In duty primarily as a KR, Williams didn't impress. After average production in 13 starts he was waived and claimed by St. Louis, who would also get some spot return duty out of him, but they too would choose to waive him. Now with Pittsburgh, he may be looking at his alst chance to hang on with an NFL team.

4 (100) Michael Robinson, RB Backup

After a nice rookie campaign that saw Robinson move up to the #2 position behind Frank Gore he inexplicably fell out of favor, and his touches, and thus his production, fell steadily. After taking over the FB role due to injury, he sits in an uncomfortable position: his style of FB play does not mesh well with the heavy bruiser style that Singletary seems to envision for his new offense. Though Robinson signed an extension, he will likely be passed up on the depth chart over the next few years by more suitable FBs, until it makes sense to just let Robinson go.

5 (140) Parys Haralson, DE STARTER

Possibly a draft-day steal, Haralson has developed well and is becoming a premiere producer for the Niners defensive line. A lackluster rookie campaign, floowed by some flashes and signs of promise in his sophmore campaign came full circle with 8 sacks in 2008. All teams wish their defensive talent could develop this consistently.

6 (175) Delanie Walker, TE Backup

Though he has serious upside, this has been true for the last three years. At a certain point he will be asked to produce. But with no red flags in his game, it is likely that the 49ers will look to keep him around as long as possible, or at least until a viable alternative falls in their laps.

6 (192) Marcus Hudson, CB Backup

To many games as an inactive, and a handful of games missed due to injury certainly don't speak well for this player going into his fourth year. When his contract is up, there will be little upside to keeping him on the roster.

6 (197) Melvin Oliver, DE Out of NFL

After a very promising and productive rookie season, where he started in 14 games, a preseason ACL in jury sent him to PUP and then IR for his 2007 campaign. He was waived by the 49ers.

7 (254) Vickiel Vaughn, S Out of NFL

After breaking his finger in preseason, he spent the year on IR, only to be cut for the following season. After a short stint on the Broncos practice squad he was again cut and is now an unsigned free agent.