SB Nation - Brandon Mebane

On Zone Defense and Aaron Curry's First Two Drives

John Morgan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 02:20:07 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Maybe the Seahawks defense is too practiced defending Matt Hasselbeck. Its zone scheme could dominate an indecisive and weak-armed quarterback, but looks inherently flawed against Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner and now Matt Schaub.

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Zone defense looks comically inadequate when defenders are not executing. Houston Texans receivers were flashing open, sometimes in pairs, before Seahawks defenders could finish their backpedal. Quick hitters attacking Seattle's off coverage have been a staple attack for Seahawks opponents since at least 2007. Sometimes what we perceive as poor planning is poor execution and sometimes what we perceive as poor execution is poor planning.

Consider this set of plays by Aaron Curry. In the first, both Curry and David Hawthorne backpedal too deep and allow indefensible space underneath.

The result: 1-10-SEA 31 (11:53) 8-M.Schaub pass short left to 44-V.Leach to SEA 22 for 9 yards (59-A.Curry, 27-J.Babineaux).

Nine yards on first down is a sizable blow to a defense. Curry dropped too deep, but his misread may have only meant the difference between five or nine yards gained. It didn't impact the reception. That was obvious later in the quarter when Curry did everything right and still allowed an easy and successful reception. He read the target, avoided a built-in pick and closed on his receiver as he approached the right sideline.

The result: 2-7-SEA 9 (3:39) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 85-J.Dreessen to SEA 4 for 5 yards (59-A.Curry).

Which tells you something about Seattle's zone defense: It breaks down when its players fail to react and execute and it breaks down when its opponent calls the right play. I hope the coaches witness plays like the latter and debit themselves. Curry could not have reacted to the play faster, better avoided the pick, or closed quicker, and he's among the fastest linebackers in the NFL, yet the Texans achieved 71% of the yardage needed to achieve first down. The Texans ran a quick out to their second string tight end and made it look like an unstoppable new tactic. They would score a touchdown on the next play.

I am looking at Aaron Curry this week. He had a terrifically bad first quarter. Sometimes though, it looks like he and most of Seattle's defense is running a flawed scheme that cannot succeed even when executed to perfection. Months back, I mentioned how Brian Russell personified a incorrect belief that a team could allow yardage if it avoided touchdown scoring plays. Russell is gone, but that thinking persists.

Curry moved towards the left offensive flat before being panned into oblivion. The camera tracked Andre Johnson running uncontested towards the end zone. Curry did not factor.

He next series went:

1. [Out]

2. Cut-blocked out of the play.

3. Pursues horizontally left and chases Ryan Moats as Moats turns the corner runs for the first down.

4. The aforementioned reception to Leach.

5. Pursues end-around motion and blows containment.

6. Drops too deep into his zone.

7. Caught watching the quarterback at the snap, misreads play and takes a poor angle to the ball carrier.

8. Again caught idle at the snap, botches the blitz entirely, so that he never impacts but does remove himself from the play, and is saved when Brandon Mebane tears through the interior and forces an incomplete pass.

Seahawks Humiliated on the Road; Deliver Signature Loss of the 2009 Season

John Morgan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I am pretty sure George Walker Bush busted coverage on a few plays. Fire him. Fire EVERYBODY!

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If ever a time for finger pointing and easy answers existed, it is now. I could attack the character, play and talent of about any Seahawk and score. We don't know exactly how Seattle failed, but we all certainly saw someone in blue fail and that, that guy, is the problem. Panic loves a demagogue and I've the rich pipes to shout orders at the assembling mob. To Renton!

The coaches! We can be sure they're dumb.

The line! Sucked like an Oreck.

Matt Hasselbeck! Boy that guy's done!

The Seattle Seahawks were 4-12 last season. They are now 5-8. They should win against Tampa, and since we're talking "shoulds", they should finish the season 6-10. That is a reasonable step forward for the 2008 Seattle Seahawks. The 2008 Seattle Seahawks were one of the five worst teams in football. The 2009 Seattle Seahawks are one of the ten worst teams in football. And when a bad team, with a suspect line, conservative playbook and aged quarterback gets behind early on the road, it has no answer. It is not one player's fault, but a complete team failure.

That Julius Jones! What a jobber.

And Housh! An overpaid primadonna!

I hope that is sufficient aperitif for everyone's hunger for blame.

Here are some sure to be unpopular observations.

Josh Wilson ran down the field and tipped away a deep pass. That was an exciting display of man cover for the kid and a small, small-small step towards realizing his potential. Wilson might settle at nickel and he is already a fine situational defensive back, but there's room for Pistol to develop into a Antoine Winfield type corner.

Deon Butler can own the short pattern. He's smooth into and out of his cuts and the rare receiver capable of quick acceleration and long-stride speed. Butler must be embraced as a receiver rather than a forty time. From the time he was drafted, Seattle has mismanaged his talent: Wasting time and development, not to mention risking injury, auditioning him as a returner; Sending him streaking up the sideline without a quarterback that could target him; seeing him as a deep receiver because of one attribute and missing his true profile as an underneath burner.

The defense kept its pride even after being handed its ass. Seattle forced two big turnovers that quickly dissolved into nothing, but were clean, meaningful turnovers. Seahawks fans are done thinking this is an elite unit, and with ample reason, but it is young, it is mostly cheap and it is worth picking apart and finding value within. Whether Seattle needs a complete rebuild or not is mootable. I see young talent growing within an otherwise crumbling team.

The team is crumbling. Today a pillar broke off and landed on the Seahawks coaching staff. I like Gus Bradley, Greg Knapp and Dan Quinn. I think all three have a future in this league, but probably not together. I can't see Jim Mora escaping such an embarrassing loss. It was always unlikely Mora would stay. New general managers want their guy. I will not look back at Mora and feel contempt, but he has not earned much respect in his short time here. Fiery is fine. I see desperation. The look of a man that thinks he can yell his way out of failure.

This loss hurt through the first half and settled in the second. Now I don't feel it all. A better team, at home, that matches strength against many of Seattle's weaknesses, playing from well ahead from the first quarter on...

And it won't matter a damn in a month. The Seahawks live beyond the players, coaches and fans. Suck as today sucks, and this sucks, Seattle will rise again. And someday, that good coverage down field by Wilson, the rollicking tiny power presence of Justin Forsett, that force of nature hitting by Aaron Curry, will matter again. Just not today. Or soon. Or even next year, probably.

Game ball: Brandon Mebane was stuck behind Chuck Darby not too long ago. Back then, I was sure to point out Darby's missteps and Mebane's potential. He finally got his shot when Darby was lost to injury and has been nothing but special ever since. He is, accounting for position, Seattle's best pass rusher. He is clearly Seattle's best run stuffer.

Mebane is the rare defensive lineman that bunches double teams and brutalizes them if the quarterback double-clutches. He sticks-out when he's in and even more when he's out. A dozen players on the current roster would be lucky to make the next winning team, but make one Brandon Mebane. Kid was playing for a good team, he would be bashing backs and sacking quarterbacks towards his second Pro Bowl.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

18 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Matt Hasselbeck Slings to Deon Butler for 32 and Game Winning Field Goal Range

John Morgan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:15:19 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Matt Hasselbeck's pass to Deion Branch bent like a curveball and sought like a missile.

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Matt Hasselbeck gets the game ball.

The NFL Draft is designed to assist weaker teams and create parity. Bad teams get better players and become better teams. The very worst teams can pick any player to help rebuild their franchise around. That intent has been disputed by research conducted by Massey and Thaler. Common wisdom is that rookies are overpaid and the strict salary structure punishes bad teams by awarding them potentially crippling investments.

Two things are true: High salaries in the top ten punish bad teams by increasing how much is risked. The best players are usually drafted early.

The San Francisco 49ers started eight picks selected in the top fifty: Alex Smith (1), Vernon Davis (6), Michael Crabtree (10), Patrick Willis (11), Manny Lawson (22), Joe Staley (28), David Bass (33) and Chilo Rachal (38). It took a lot of ass football to assemble that cast. If not for the 90s Niners spilling into the early 2000s, San Francisco would have a dog in the race for worst team of the new millennium.

Smith looked like a competent if unsexy quarterback. Dilfer with a better arm. He's 25.

Davis ran a 4.38 forty. Match him against Aaron Curry on a crossing route and Curry is probably going to get burned.

Crabtree is athletic and explosive and-Oh shit! Lawyer Milloy!

I won't continue fawning. My point is that Seattle beat a better team than itself today. It beat a younger team with far greater resources invested in that youth. It beat that team because the 49ers are better than Seattle, but not significantly.

Josh Wilson was the best all around cornerback playing today. He is a fiend against the wide receiver screen, aware and responsive to his surroundings like a Shaolin Monk. Wilson isn't a stride-for-stride, Asomugha-like shutdown corner. He's a zone corner, but a hell of a zone corner, and drafted to play in a zone scheme. He was supposed to be Ronde. He's supposed to bury the screen, intercept the bounce, jump the route and find the fumble and fly.

Brandon Mebane is an incredible machine. He's a backloaded piston; a battering ram shaped like candy corn. The day Mebane synced to NFL snap counts he became a great young defensive tackle. Mebane is quick, powerful and hard to block. Seattle doesn't need Suh to showcase Mebane, just someone better than Rocky Bernard, Colin Cole, Craig Terrill and the whole sick crew. Like, motile matter -- ambulatory would be an upgrade.

Jordan Babineaux is a young, cheap and functional free safety.

Tim Ruskell never did rebuild but he added some talent while the core rotted. Seattle's next GM inherits a heck of a fine position. I hope he realizes it.

. . .

Two years ago I faced the Shaun Alexander dilemma. Alexander was no longer a good running back. On his best days rushing, he was still a liability as a receiver and pass blocker. But he was beloved even by we who hated watching him. I never feared a miraculous recovery disproving all my theories. I cringed because others saw a miraculous recovery every time he rushed for five.

Hasselbeck isn't there. Quarterbacks do not fall like running backs fall. Losing a little arm strength is not like losing the first gear that got you the job. Hasselbeck can toss a nice pass when he needs. The bender over the defender to Deion Branch was indefensible pass at its best. He threw another high-arcing bomb to Branch that Branch lost behind the defender. It was pretty for a second. Real pretty.

Unlike seeing Shaun sprinting for fourteen, I never cringed seeing Hasselbeck spark to life. It was thrilling. Hasselbeck was never a great quarterback. Well, screw that. Matt Hasselbeck is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play American football. Any quarterback that's made a Pro Bowl can claim that. Hasselbeck is not Manning or within the discussion. He's not Fouts or Unitas or Tarkenton or Marino or-

But HE's THE BEST GODDAMN QUARTERBACK WE'VE EVER HAD!!

Game ball guy. I hope you find a team to make your last few millions in the league with. And I hope that team is not the Seattle Seahawks.

Carlos Dunlap Careens off Big Timmay's Draft Board

John Morgan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:37:27 -0000

More photos » by Hannah Foslien - AP

Could Darryl Tapp enjoy a Elvis Dumervil-like breakout if Seattle switches to a 3-4?

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Sours Grapes Treatment

Carlos Dunlap was arrested Tuesday morning for driving under the Artest. He is a potential top ten pick with the size, scouting profile and upside of a great defensive end. What Dunlap lacks is elite production. Dunlap has 17.5 sacks and 24 tackles for a loss in two seasons starting. Good but not elite production, further downgraded by the Gators dominance. Florida is 25-1 over the past two seasons, and Dunlap plays most snaps ears-pinned-back, protecting a big lead. He had a sack against Florida State and Troy, two teams that rank 48 and 53 nationally in sacks allowed. He had three sacks against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have allowed 1.67 sacks per game, which sounds mediocre at first, but bad when you consider they average 22 pass attempts a game. Mississippi State allows a sack on 7.5% of pass attempts.

Fire Timmay Treatment

Dunlap might bulk up a bit and transition to 3-4 end in the pros. He is listed at 6'6", 290. Dunlap has a good mix of stoutness and playmaking ability against the run, and the height, frame and athleticism required to push the pile, set the edge and keep blockers at bay. Seattle has four linebackers contesting for three spots, and another linebacker, Will Herring, that deserves snaps. Brandon Mebane has proven capable of commanding double teams. His first two seasons, he was bulked up and immovable, yet still agile enough to disrupt. If Seattle re-signed Cory Redding and encouraged Lawrence Jackson to grow into his frame, the pieces are in place to build a 3-4.

That, like drafting Dunlap, only happens if Ruskell is not re-signed. Some teams struggle with the transition to a 3-4, but others, like Green Bay and Denver, have thrived. The key is having the right personnel.

Mebane could be the starting nose tackle. He would rotate with Colin Cole and Red Bryant. Jackson and Redding could play end, with Bryant and Vance Walker in the mix. Nick Reed and Darryl Tapp would be situational pass rushers, and both might benefit from moving off the line. David Hawthorne and Lofa Tatupu would play inside, and Leroy Hill and Aaron Curry on the outside, or Curry inside and Hawthorne outside. The roles could be dynamic. Seattle could move Curry inside on passing downs and sub in Tapp at rush linebacker.

The Seahawks need to improve their pass rush. The team has many good pass rushers, but only two that can consistently work off the line: Patrick Kerney and Tapp. It wants to create pressure without committing additional pass rushers. All teams do. One solution is to add an elite pass rushing lineman. Another is to switch the scheme. Tapp might not benefit as much as Elvis Dumervil, but the two share size and skill sets, and Dumervil has changed from pass rushing specialist, but liability against the run, to pass rush demon--damn the run. Tapp has bulked up to better defend the run. It's worked, but at what cost? He has never looked slower or less disruptive off the edge. Reed is playing his way out of the league. Tackles spring out of their stance and chuck him like so much seventh-round garbage.

This is all food for thought. Seattle doesn't need to draft Dunlap to transition to a 3-4, but his recent arrest is an opportunity to discuss alternative paths for Seattle's young defense. Tim Ruskell does not deserve to be fired, but the move still might be in the best interest of the Seahawks. He has made some shrewd moves in his time and added talent, but like Mike Holmgren, his execution might be masking a flawed plan. Holmgren disliked trick plays, was adverse to the shotgun, and taught a twenty-year old version of the West Coast. It worked when it was perfect, crafted by the master himself, but was resource intense and fragile. I assume Ruskell is building something like to a Tampa 2. He has concerted resources into linebackers and pass rushers. Gus Bradley taught a Tampa 2 in college and broke into the NFL under Monte Kiffin.

But when was the last time a Tampa 2 defense dominated? And can a Tampa 2 succeed without a Simeon Rice, Jared Allen or Dwight Freeney? The two great Tampa 2 teams of the past are both below average defensively this season: Chicago and Tampa. I do not believe a 3-4 is intrinsically better than a 4-3, but, perhaps by accident, Ruskell has assembled a roster that fits a 3-4 in some ways better than it fits a 4-3. In the past, Seattle's best players, like Kerney and Tatupu, were 4-3 players playing in a 4-3 scheme. It could maybe make a 3-4, but was not going to. We're in flux. Ruskell has not been fired, nor re-signed. Suddenly, anything is possible. Even Seattle drafting Carlos Dunlap.

Seattle Seahawks Grind Out 27-17 Victory over St. Louis Rams

John Morgan — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:44:25 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

The future is streaking at the Seahawks like Pistol returning it for six.

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The Seattle Seahawks won on the road against the Kyle Boller-led St. Louis Rams. The offense was one-dimensional, the defense hardly dominant, but Seattle slowly, convincingly overwhelmed St. Louis and squeezed out its fourth win of the season. That matches last year's total.

The young players are learning. Jordan Babineaux and Aaron Curry trade exciting plays with blown assignments. Brandon Mebane can knife into the pocket, but most pro quarterbacks have the agility to evade him after the initial pressure. Seattle's ends, excluding Patrick Kerney, are talented, young and cheap, but do not create sufficient pressure on their own. The defense lacks an elite pass rusher and should add one through the draft.

The path to contention is long. It will take maturation from its defensive core and, for the first time in Tim Ruskell's career, a new offense. The time is now to stop rebuilding, stop swapping in used parts and patching holes with low-upside polish, and start building an offense from scratch.

Justin Forsett is a lock. Force has proven that Seattle's offensive line is not hopeless, and that he is a part of the offense Seattle wants to become. It's a running offense. It rotates backs, and builds drives off a slicing run attack. Julius Jones is not the problem, but he's not good enough either. Seattle needs talent at its skill positions. Not just running back, but Seattle needs to become younger and faster at wide receiver too.

A reporter asked Jim Mora when Deon Butler would play. Mora said that Butler will play when he's the best player. Butler has six receptions for 56 yards. Third round wide receivers rarely explode on the NFL. They can contribute.

It's a pick like Butler that makes me worry about Ruskell's ability to judge offensive talent. Seattle moved up into the third to draft Butler. But Ruskell has earned the right to start the process. Seattle will be worse before it is better.

Matt Hasselbeck is a game manager. He doesn't lose games like Matthew Stafford or Kyle Boller. Seattle can pick, sack and run its way to a victory against the Rams, but it needs downfield passing to be a contender again. That means a rookie quarterback, and a rookie quarterback means soon the Seahawks will be the team throwing wins away.

Game Ball: Force.

Forsett is a slashing power-back in a too small frame. Seattle will not pound the rock behind Forsett, but it can build a rushing attack around him. The coaches will want to keep Forsett under twenty carries and around twenty total touches. That means finding Forsett a partner. Jones is not a bum. He put up a similar stats against the Rams in week one. Hopefully Seattle learns from Forsett's success and does not blindly feed Forsett the ball. Bring in backs. Audition them for the future. Seattle needs help at running back, and Louis Rankin is not the answer, but Forsett alone is not the answer either.

Arizona Cardinals Fly Around the NFC West and Is It Too Early to Talk Playoffs?

Hawkwind — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Arizona Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt loudly proclaims to everyone that if they don't think the Cardinals are playoff bound, then they can go sit in a corner. (AP Photo/Matt York)

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The NFC West went 2-2 over week 10 with wins by the Cardinals and 49ers. The Cardinals are the only team over the .500 mark (6-3) with San Fran currently sitting at 4-5 in second place and the Seahawks (3-6) and Rams (1-8) round out the division. The Niners and Hawks both travel to NFC North opponents this week (Packers and Vikings respectively) while the Cards and Rams will meet for the first time this season.

San Francisco 49ers: The Niners are coming off an uninspiring Thursday night win over the Bears that saw them turn five Jay Cutler picks into just ten points, but a win is a win and it ended a four game losing streak. While a 4-5 record might not inspire a great deal of confidence, the Niners fans aren't giving up on the playoffs just yet. As crazy at that may sound with games remaining against the Packers, Cardinals and Eagles, all of whom are ahead of them in the playoff picture, you could say that they still control their own destiny. Even tougher for the Niners fans to watch right now is the resurgance of the Carolina Panthers, who've won four of their last six after starting 0-3, and with three upcoming games against teams with a combined 9-18 record, that first round pick could get pushed down much further than Niners' fans were hoping. One interesting segment over at Niners' Nation worth checking out is an 'approval rating' on both Mike Singletary and Jimmy Raye (OC). Interestingly enough nearly 90% "approve" of the job being done by Singletary but Raye's "approval" rating is just under 40%.

After the jump we'll look at the Seahawks and Rams, and take a quick look at a premature NFC playoff picture.....

Seattle Seahawks: Obviously Hawks' fans aren't in the best of moods this week after seeing their team squander a two touchdown lead and basically end any hope of competing for anything more than a high draft pick this season. Even though they saw some promising things from thier team, the guys over at Field Gulls are now shifty their focus to key players in the Hawks future and next year's draft. One of the guys they'll focus on over the rest of the season is defensive tackle Brandon Mebane (part I and II) and they're also taking a glance at California's defensive end/tackle Tyson Alualu. The Hawks also made a small roster move yesterday releasing Devin Moore from their practice squad and signing Xavier Omon to take his place.

St. Louis Rams: Despite losing their eighth game of the season the Rams played their best football of the season on Sunday, narrowly losing to the undefeated Saints 28-23. One thing that gives Rams' fans some hope is that this was a game that they coulda/shoulda won, if not for a handful of mistakes, but I'm sure we all know how slipperly that slope can become. The Rams still have more questions than answers right now but hope isn't necessarily a bad thing (unless you ask Red). Right now they're wondering what a better backup running back might mean to the team, whether or not they should be looking at wide recievers in the draft and perhaps most importantly, whether or not their beloved team is disheartened or dangerous. They also made a roster move, placing Keenan Burton on injured reserve and signing Jordan Kent to the active roster.

Ok, so it's probably too early to be talking playoffs but call me an optimist. After so many years of talking prematurely about who we should be taking in the draft, I'm enjoying the flip of of November and December discussion. With that being said, here's what the picture looks like.....

Division Winners:

Wild Card Race:

On Life Support:

Chicago Bears (4-5)
Carolina Panthers (4-5)
San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

I'll leave playoff picture at that for now. Eventually we'll break it down further by looking at each team's upcoming schedule but now it's too much to digest at one time. I will say that the Cardinals remaining schedule is much more managable than the Cowboys so moving into the third seed doesn't seem like a difficult move but moving into the second seed is a much tougher proposition. For the Cards to catch the Vikings you'd have to consider their matchup, at UoP, in three weeks a 'must win' game for the home team.

Brandon Mebane in the First Quarter and the Optimal Defensive Line, Pt. 2

John Morgan — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:38:26 -0000

Mebane should have Cole's job. The decision to restructure the line around Colin Cole was stupid when made and has led to predictable results. Seattle's third down stand, in which Tapp knifed through Mike Gandy and tackled Wells in the back field, is a great example of how important Mebane was to Seattle. Mebane was on the right, beside Tapp where he belonged. Cole was on the left. Seattle was in a five man front, but Mebane was still double teamed of the snap. It was an ugly, but effective display. He hit his blockers low, getting topped and dropped, but holding ground and most importantly, freeing Tapp. Tapp took apart his single block and used his great inside move to come free to the ball carrier.

Mebane had two more nice looking pass rush moves, but neither effectively freed him. He hustled into a play off end and forced the near interception by Marcus Trufant. Mebane was good, good enough to make those around him better, but not as good as he has been at the one-tech. Cole needs to be worked down in the rotation. His presence stops Seattle from starting an optimal line.

That idea was on my mind as I notated Mebane's day: The Seattle Seahawks optimal, starting defensive line. This season is about next season and this offseason about adding talent where it's needed. Seattle traded for a three tech in his prime and turned him into a defensive end. It's not a bad idea, but with Lawrence Jackson's development, Seattle has options at end. Redding should bulk back up and move inside. He has the motor, length and repertoire of rush moves to be a very good inside pass rusher, but he isn't contributing much from the outside. Mebane should bulk up and reassume the one-tech. Cole would be his rotational partner, what he always should have been, a better Howard Green.

The key to forming this line is complementary skills. Mebane has helped free Jackson, but Jackson is not a great pass rusher. Mebane should be keeping blockers off Tapp. Redding's major weakness is getting high in his stance and subsequently pushed back. Jackons pairs nicely with him because Jackson is very stout for an end and a very good run defender. When Redding sags back, Jackson can drive his man into the hole, narrow it, and even disengage and make the tackle. Seattle might cede some stoutness in the middle, but it fields an elite corps of linebackers. Building this defense to defend the run has, predictably, done just that. When it must defend the pass, be it third and long or playing ahead, it has crumbled.

Seattle could add interior line talent through the draft. A player like Tyson Aluala is a natural complement to Mebane. It doesn't need to though. I think Redding wants to stay and if Seattle can pony the bucks, he will. He shouldn't be outrageously expensive. Concerns about health have passed. He has appeared once on the injury report and not for a knee or groin, but a shoulder. Seattle can not continue to sink over $20 million into Walter Jones, Matt Hasselbeck and Patrick Kerney. The Seahawks could retain their best talent and be players in free agency with that money.

We have months before those decisions are made. Until then, Seattle needs to stir things up and experiment. It needs to test roles and figure out its offseason needs. Seattle had the right game plan against Warner, but used the wrong personnel. It can't start Cory Redding - Brandon Mebane - Colin Cole - Patrick Kerney and expect a persistent pass rush. That line features, arguably, two to three players that are below average pass rushers for their position. And yet, by moving Redding inside and Mebane over center, the resulting Lawrence Jackson - Cory Redding - Brandon Mebane - Darryl Tapp line has three, even four above average pass rushers for their position.

Jim Mora said he was encouraged despite the loss. I would be more encouraged if Seattle did something about the loss. Seattle had zero sacks. It continues to excel against the run, but at what cost? The NFL is a passing league. The Seahawks have a great linebacker corps and three corners that can tackle. It shouldn't need to optimize its line for run stuffing, but it nearly has. It can allow long runs and win. It allowed over 200 yards to Frank Gore, but would have been in the thick of it against San Francisco if not for Matt Hasselbeck's injury. It can not allow another quarterback to sit back and pick apart its zones. Seattle shot of the gates like a contender, but without pass rush, it crumbled, allowing Kurt Warner to become just the latest quarterback to fatten up against the Seahawks zones.

Brandon Mebane in the First Quarter and the Optimal Defensive Line, Pt. 1

John Morgan — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:05:46 -0000

More photos » by Ross Franklin - AP

Seattle took an early lead and implemented a smart strategy to defend Kurt Warner. The scheme was right, but the personnel wrong. It has the talent to field an above average pass rushing line, but it needs to sit Colin Cole.

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Has Brandon Mebane struggled to transition to the three tech? That is something I will explore deeper this week, but if he hasn't struggled, nor has he proven himself the force he was at the one tech.

Seattle has three players that are nominal three techs: Mebane, Cory Redding and Craig Terrill. Redding plays end, but is very much more a 3-4 end than a traditional 4-3 end. He influences and collapses the pocket rather than disengages and makes plays. He just isn't quick enough to edge rush and though he has been good and great at what he does, he hasn't provided much pass rush. Terrill is the standard organizational soldier type that is in turns under- and overappreciated. Seattle could upgrade but does not have to upgrade.

It has two one-tech types: Colin Cole and Red Bryant. Cole is the most reliable of the two and one of the most active tackles in Seattle's rotation. He can square against most single blocks, but that's his skill set almost in its entirety. Three tech used to be the feature tackle position in a 4-3, but the proliferation of 3-4 schemes has made the nose position in demand and three tech types less popular.

Signing Cole was a mistake. He hasn't proven much as a Seahawk and his ridiculous contract practically forces Seattle to start him. When Seattle needed its front four to provide pressure, it was exposed. Seattle's ends are average. Lawrence Jackson is developing, but is unlikely to ever be a great pass rusher. Darryl Tapp is a good speed rusher, but aside Cole, he isn't getting the one-on-one matchups he thrives against. Patrick Kerney still has burst around the edge, but his spate of injuries have sapped his upper body strength and he is as much a situational pass rusher now as Nick Reed. It's a nice foundation, but it won't strike fear into this season's opponents.

Seattle had a better front four last season, even minus Kerney. Mebane was a better one-tech than Cole, and though Rocky Bernard had little left to give, Mebane and Bernard were better collectively than Mebane and Cole. Mebane is supposed to be making plays and Cole stuffing tacklers, but Cole can't and so Mebane is again doing both. Bane does not get off blocks exceptionally well and his pass rush arsenal isn't developed. He established himself in this league as the type of punishing bull rusher that two blockers struggled to stop.

Anatomically, it's easy to see why: Mebane has an exceptionally low center of gravity, gets lower in his stance than almost anyone and erupts off the snap with such violence that many blockers are beat before they can defend themselves. As a three, a popular way of combating Mebane's explosiveness and exceptional leverage is to fade and draw his weight from over his feet. He gets ahead of himself, so to speak, and can be blocked whence unbalanced.

My notes on Mebane are mostly positive. He ran through a pulling blocker and tackled Beanie Wells for a loss of four at the start of the Cardinals second drive. He then played nose twice in a three man rush and performed ably, but wasn't able to separate. That's the problem for Brandon: He is great off the snap, but he does not consistently separate from blockers. As a one tech, Mebane was able to collapse the pocket into the quarterback and bull rush into sacks. As a three tech, he needs to be able to fight off a single block and show quickness to the ball carrier. That might not be within Mebane's ability.

Seattle Seahawks Wither; Fall 31 - 20 to the Arizona Cardinals

John Morgan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:25:25 -0000

by Matt York - AP

Greg Knapp achieved offense with surprise.

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This was an heroic effort and exciting football. Arizona is pretty good this year. Standing at 6-3, the Cardinals should surpass ten wins. Seattle tore out to an early lead, but the defense crumbled against a sustained Arizona attack. Seattle was beat because it was the inferior football team. The Cards had thirteen meaningful drives and averaged 35.8 yards a drive.

There's a lot of game balls to give out, but first let's discuss some of Seattle's weaknesses. Sean Locklear looked a bit gimpy between snaps, so perhaps he is not fully healed. However Locklear is chipping away at his chance to stick at left tackle. Seattle faces an interesting dilemma with Lock. He could be a great right tackle in Greg Knapp's system, but even without the left tackle incentives, he is expensive for a right tackle. Seattle owns a fabulously cheap offensive line, so perhaps it could afford to pay Locklear well at right tackle.

Matt Hasselbeck had a hard game. Heroic is a great way to describe his play. A hero is someone that gets other people killed. Joss Whedon did not envision Hasselbeck's high pass to Deon Butler, but I did upon quoting him. There are many things Hasselbeck still does well. To build a good to elite offense around him, something Seattle would need to do to have a realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl, would require a massive investment. A more massive investment. Seattle has already sunk much of its cap into Beck, Walter Jones, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Objectivist is wonderfully free of Kyle Orton moments. Because Matt Hasselbeck can consistently make the right read and throw with accuracy, he can make an offense out of check downs. But it's a shit offense. And the second his reads are wrong or his accuracy flutters, it completely breaks down.

Seattle had very little chance to recover when it lost the lead. It does not have what Arizona has: A repeatable ability to gain big chunks of yards in one play. But it shouldn't have lost the lead. Seattle did exactly what it needed to: punch the Cardinals in the mouth early and force Warner to consistently face thick zones. The defense did not crumble because any one player played poorly, but because now it does not have a single great pass rusher. The defense Seattle wants to run needs someone to make Brandon Mebane's almost-snaply pistoning into the backfield and crushing the front of the pocket matter. It needs someone to keep the tight end away from Darryl Tapp. It needs a better edge rusher than Aaron Curry. It lacks that and it failed to sack Warner once.

Game Balls:

Justin Forsett: Kid showed up and declared his an NFL player. Force showed quick feet in his cuts, power in the hole and the less recognized ability to run under tackles and through smaller holes. I don't believe in a feature back. So I am not calling for Forsett to get the majority of the carries, but he is no longer a specialty back. Force is a first and ten, I-formation back.

ME!BANE!: Said. Done. Master of the midway.

Darryl Tapp: Tapp is hybrid end-linebacker. His ability against the run is that of a linebacker, but he's a pure edge-rushing defensive end. Keep this guy and enjoy how he ages.

Josh Wilson: Who would think Wilson would look like the best cover corner Seattle had today? Pistol isn't too good at that, actually, but small samples may contain outliers. He needs to be facing the quarterback to be his best and the game plan to man up the Cardinals defenders and hope they can buy the pass rush time stopped working in the second. Wilson recovered well, showed some man ability and kept overall his guy close, boosting his campaign for starting right corner. He wasn't great, but he was good at something he doesn't do and against the league's best wide receiver corps.

Greg Knapp: It took some balls to swallow your assumptions and let Forsett run real runs. He also called a very nice game. Early, Seattle attacked with a suddenly successful rush game, and punctuated their Two-Headed Freak with a mid-range aerial assault. He saved the screens for desperation time in the fourth. It's hard planning around an injury wracked quarterback with fading arm strength that plays behind a piecemeal line, but Knapp squeezes production out of this offense with a mix of good timing and good play calling.

That's it folks. Seattle is no longer in the hunt to win the division. If it keeps up this intensity, it will enter the Wild Card chase, but only in a fanboy sense. Field Gulls is switching gears again. Like last year, the tape review will now focus on players key to Seattle's future. This week: Sean Locklear at left tackle and Brandon Mebane at the three.