SB Nation - Antonio Johnson

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Monday "Practice Estimation"

shake n bake — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:20:19 -0000

Thursday night game means that to comply with the leagues requirement of 3 injury reports teams need to give a "Practice Estimation" on Monday, reporting which players they'd expect to hold out of practice if they were conducting a practice today. As you'd expect for the day after a game, the lists are long. Really it's more telling to look at who isn't listed. In the Colts case that list is actually shorter and we'll start with that.

Players Not Listed (count on them playing)

Curtis Painter, Mike Hart, Jacob Tamme, Gijon Robinson, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Hank Baskett, Micheal Toudoze, Mike Pollak, Jeff Saturday, Ryan Lilja, Antonio Johnson, Fili Moala, Erwin Baldwin, Philip Wheeler, Freddy Keiaho, Ramon Humber, Cody Glenn, T.J. Rushing, Jaime Silva, Devon Hall, Justin Snow, Pat McAfee, Matt Stover

Players that would've rested (likely playing)

Dwight Freeney, Antoine Bethea

The Injured (who knows?)

Joseph Addai (knee), Gary Brackett (foot), Raheem Brock (back), Donald Brown (chest), Melvin Bullitt (shoulder), Keyunta Dawson (knee), Kyle DeVan (shin), Ryan Diem (hamstring), Eric Foster (back), Aaron Francisco (ankle), Pierre Garçon (knee), Anthony Gonzalez (knee), Kelvin Hayden (knee), Tim Jennings (ankle), Charlie Johnson (foot), Jacob Lacey (Biceps), Peyton Manning (glute), Robert Mathis (quad), Daniel Muir (hamstring), Jerraud Powers (Hamstring), Jamey Richard (Shoulder), Tom Santi (hand), Clint Session (calf), Chad Simpson (back), Tony Ugoh (hip), Adam Vinatieri (knee), Reggie Wayne (foot).

Colts.com link

Recap Week Seven: Colts 42-Rams 6

BigBlueShoe — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:33:53 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

about 1 month ago: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Austin Collie, top, is congratulated by teammate Hank Baskett after catching an 8-yard pass from quarterback Peyton Manning for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009, in St. Louis. The Colts won 42-6. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

This was not a case where the Colts went into someone's stadium and beat the snot out of a team that had quit on their season and forgotten how to win. As VanRam at Turf Show Times put it, this game seemed to highlight a big talent gap between the Colts and Rams. I have always liked Rams coach Steve Stagnuolo, and I think he will do a good job moving forward, teaching these Rams how to win again. But right now, they are searching. We Colts fans have been there as well, watching our team learn how not to commit penalties, turn the football over, blow coverages, etc. The Rams played with a lot of fight, but in the end the Colts simply overwhelmed them.

Surprisingly, the Rams are one of three NFL teams still without a win this late into the season. We're almost to the mid-point of the regular season (shocking, I know), and the Buccaneers, Titans, and Rams all are winless. Meanwhile, three more clubs (Lions, Chiefs, and Browns) all have only one win. That's six clubs with a combined record of 3-37.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, for the first time in NFL history, three teams will hit Week Eight with undefeated records. The Colts are one of those unbeaten teams, along with the Broncos and the Saints. If the Vikings Chester Taylor could hold onto a friggin screen pass, we'd have four unbeaten teams in November, which would have been even more amazing.

Like several of Indy's games this year, the Colts have re-discovered their formula which eluded them last year: Start fast, overwhelm the opponent, pin your ears back, and sack the hell out of the QB. Oh, and they re-learned how to run the ball as well, which made this blogger feel much better about this very special, very well-coached team.

This game was an opportunity for the Colts to finally display some kind of ground game. They were ranked 30th in the league running the ball despite an entire off-season of work aimed specifically at fixing it. The Colts took advantage of St. Louis' "talent gap" and showcased a lot "WOW!" plays on the ground:

Indy ran for 156 yards on 26 carries, averaging 6 yards a carry. That, my friends, is what you want to see! Joseph Addai ground out the tough yards while Donald Brown continues to get better and better each week. That 45 yard run by Brown was exactly the reason Indy drafted him. The hole he was given off the left side was so big a cruise ship could have sailed through, but this is the difference between Brown and someone else (like Addai). Other backs get maybe 20 yards on that run. Brown gets 45.
I don't care about Peyton Manning not throwing for 300 yards, breaking some NFL record no one cares about. I'll quote AP writer R.P. Fallstrom:
It wouldn’t have been appropriate for Manning to try for the mark the way his unbeaten team was beating up on the woeful St. Louis Rams.
I agree. Maybe the Patriots would have continued to just "run their offense" by going for it on meaningless 4th and 6 opportunities so their QB could get the record, but Indy doesn't do that.
Daniel Muir is a better DT than Ed Johnson, and I can see why Ed was cut. Muir had 7 tackles and a sack today replacing Johnson as the starting under tackle. Eric Foster also had himself a nice game with 3 tackles and a sack. WE ARE GETTING SACKS FROM THE DTS! OMG! Again, the Colts weren't getting this kind of production from Ed. In one game, Muir almost had as much production Ed had built up over the course of four games. Muir and Foster = better.
Fili Moala is still figuring it out. One tackle. He looked lost out there, but that's expected.
Austin Collie; another game, another TD. 24 catches, 264 yards, and already 4 TDs as a rookie receiver. Wow. He is a serious Rookie of the Year candidate.
Bob Sanders is in the same boat. He looked rusty, unsure, and tentative. Again, that too is expected. Bob hadn't played football since January. He's in pre-season mode. Sanders left the field after 25 plays because he was on a "pitch count," not because of injury.
Jacob Lacey just leap-frogged Tim Jennings on the depth chart.
Dallas Clark is on pace to shatter the NFL record for catches and yards for one season by a tight end. His catch in the endzone was text book on how to look cool catching a perfect throw, with two defenders hanging curtains on the back of his jersey. Clark is the best tight end in football now.
Once again, the defense holds another team out of the endzone.
Once again, Dwight Freeney got a sack. That's a streak of seven games with at least one sack. Very quietly, it seems, Dwight is having his best season as a Colts player.
Reggie Wayne aggravated his groin (yee-ouch!) during the game, but came back. He racked up 7 receptions for 83 yards and a TD. With 542 yards, 39 receptions, and 5 TDs, Reggie is establishing himself as one of the best receivers in football. No, he doesn't have Andre Johnson's size or Larry Fitzgerald's speed. Reggie is just damn good as playin' receiver.

I could be Mr. Frowny Face Poop Head and complain about that run defense giving up 155 rushing yards to a winless Rams team, but that would just be frowning that the serving platter for your Baked Alaska is sterling silver and not gold. Some fans and media idiots might complain that the departure of Ed Johnson caused a run defense "lull" this to happen.

Sorry, but no.

Daniel Muir , Eric Foster, and Antonio Johnson were outstanding Sunday. Fili Moala will come around. The DTs are fine. In the first half, the Rams were unable to run the ball with effectiveness while Indy built a two touchdown lead. In the second half, Indy came out playing two-deep safety, thinking the Rams were going to throw to get back in the game. St. Louis had tried a successful flea flicker earlier in the game, and likely had more tricks up their sleeve.

However, St. Louis responded to Indy's two-deep safety look by running at it. Why? I don't know. Down two TDs, and matching up against an offense like the Colts, running the ball is near close to conceding the game. You have to throw to win in this league.

So, by running the amazing Stephen Jackson at a two-deep safety look, the Rams padded some rushing stats and only scored 3 more points the entire game. The Colts run defense is fine. We've seen them stone the Titans (better rushing team than Rams) and the Seahawks. We've seen them contain Maurice Jones-Drew. We've seen them kill Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower of the Cardinals (something the Giants struggled with last night). Larry Coyer knows how to get these guys focused on the run, and with Bob Sanders slowly rounding into form, worrying about this is just not worth your energy or effort.

At 6-0, the Colts continue to show they are one of the elite in the AFC. They seem to improve each and every week, focusing on weaknesses and working to make them strengths. The running game was the one area where we had not seen any kind of dramatic improvement over last year. Now, that question is answered. The only thing now is how bad is Donald Brown's sprained shoulder, which he injured in the game. Brown says it is a re-occurring thing from college (oh boy) and that he is fine. We'll see.

Remember last year this time? Indy was coming off a thrashing by the Packers and we were all wondering "What the hell is going on?" Never take an undefeated start for granted, folks. Go Colts!

Colts vs Rams coverage

Turf Show Times

Poll

Week Seven game balls

RBs Donald Brown and Joseph Addai: 22 carries, 134 yards, 1 TD

78 votes

WR Reggie Wayne: 7 catches, 83 yards, 1 TD

21 votes

Colts offensive line: 5 offensive TDs, 155 yards rushing, no sacks allowed

404 votes

CB Jacob Lacey: 35 yard INT return for a TD

108 votes

QB Peyton Manning: 67% completition, 235 yards, 3 TDs

111 votes

DT Daniel Muir: 7 tackles, 1 sack (actually, .5 sack, but we'll round up)

95 votes

817 votes | Poll has closed

Welcome to Schmuckville; Population: Ed Johnson

BigBlueShoe — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:34:11 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Once again, Ed Johnson is a former member of the Indianapolis Colts (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

I'm having a hard time coming up with something to describe this tidbit of news that does not involve a long series of curse words, most of which involving the word f*ck. So, I'll just let Paul Kuharsky do the talking for me:

So much has gone right for the Indianapolis Colts as they’ve run out to a 5-0 record. But ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton is reporting the team has parted ways with a key contributor, cutting defensive tackle Ed Johnson.

A 5-0 start. A defense that is starting to dominate. Everything looking on the up and up. Then... this.

We have no reasoning why Big Ed was cut. What we do know is that he came back to the this team in May under a zero tolerance clause . This meant that if he did anything, ANYTHING to violate that policy in the slightest, it was back to the unemployment line. This latest termination from the Colts is also likely the end of Ed's football career. No one touched him after the Colts cut him last year for violating his previous zero tolerance clause. Why would anyone touch him now? And if he did something serious to warrant this, he'll likely be suspended again by Commissioner Roger Goodell.

I'm so disappointed in Ed Johnson right now it makes me sick.

From the Colts standpoint, they will be fine. They can re-sign Adrian Grady or Terrance Taylor, and likely they'll start integrating second round pick Fili Moala into the rotation, which needed to start happening soon anyway. Indy has talent on the defensive line, and stopping the run will not be the slap stick comedy it was last year. Guys like Antonio Johnson, Daniel Muir, and Eric Foster seem to be bringing it every week.

What makes me want to vomit is just how STUPID Ed Johnson has been. Other than violating his tolerance policy, the only other reason I can think of for Indy to cut him is that maybe he was dogging it during games. On his radio show last night, Bill Polian said this, emphasis mine (Tip to SpazMo):

There are areas on defense we can improve, particularly in terms of all-out hustle all the time. We had some people like (defensive end) Keyunta Dawson that really stepped up and did a great job of that, but there are other people who can improve upon what they're doing.

I haven't gone back and looked at the tape, but maybe Ed was one of the people Polian was referring to in that statement. I don't know, and at this point I don't care. Ed was given his second chance and he seems to have flushed that down the toilet.

Now, we move on.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I absolutely refuse to allow yet another Ed Johnson f*ck up to distract me from enjoying my team.

Colts cut DT Ed Johnson, again

Colts v. Cardinals Game Review: Putting the Pieces Together

Colts Homer — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:09:14 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

2 months ago: After making a catch, Indianapolis Colts' Pierre Garcon, left, tangles with Arizona Cardinals' Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009 in Glendale, Ariz. Both received penalties on the play. The Colts defeated the Cardinals 31-10. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Browse more photos »

This was a fun game. My favorite games are the ones when you know that your team is going to win throughout the entire game, and it makes it even better since I didn't think that the Colts would be able to beat the Cardinals with all of the things stacked up against them (No Brackett, Hayden, Gonzalez or Sanders, short week, tired defense, etc.). The Colts had a lot of adversity for this game. They even made the Colts underdogs. That's unbelievable. Obviously, the Vegas people aren't going to make that mistake again. Right now the Colts are probably going to be favored by double digits for the Seahawks game. I'm very happy that they're back playing on Sunday afternoons. I know that it is better for the Colts fans outside of the Midwest, but I'm a greedy person and I enjoy sleeping. The analysis is below.

QBs-Peyton Manning is unbelievable. He has lost two of his top three receivers from 2008, and he is better than ever. Besides Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, his other top receivers are a second-year player out of D3 Mount Union and a rookie out of BYU. Most QBs wouldn't be able to make that work. Peyton does. The Brady v. Manning debate is on hold. We are seeing what Peyton does with only two top targets and a bad right side of the line. Peyton is second in the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards. If we are going to be making early predictions, I'll say that number 4 is not out of the stretch of the imagination. After the Saints start to look human, Manning will emerge past the Brees hoopla. Bursa sacs were holding Manning back.

The rest is after the jump.

RBs-This was a huge concern of us all after the Chargers loss. It was clear that Addai-Rhodes was not going to cut it. Rhodes was a decent back but nothing special and Addai was always banged up. Fast forward 8 and a half months, and the running attack is lethal. Addai is amazingly consistent. On first down he seems to always get 5 or 6 yards at least. Joseph Addai has come back with a vengeance. He is proving haters wrong and he is looking like the Addai of old. And then there's Donald. Donald Brown looks like a future star. There is no questioning this draft pick now. Brown is very explosive when he gets in the open field. That 70 yard reception was brilliant! He breaks tackles which honestly surprised me as I thought that wasn't going to be a part of his game. For people wondering why he isn't starting right now, look at the differences pre-snap with him in the game. On multiple occasions Sunday night Brown had to be moved around by Peyton to get into position. Once Brown gets a hold of the playbook he will be the main back.

WRs/TEs-This is why Polian is a future Hall of Famer. Somehow he found Pierre Garcon out of Mount Union. Mount Union plays in a nearly century old football stadium that seats 5,000. Mount Union is a dynasty, but the fact that Polian found this diamond in the rough just shows his genius. Garcon is emerging as a great third receiver. He's very explosive, and to say he is a big play threat is an understatement. My guess is that once Anthony Gonzalez returns they will continue to give Garcon playing time on the outside with Gonzalez in the slot. That's why he didn't take Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt. Austin Collie has become a nice receiver. He's not the Stokley big play threat yet, but he has good hands and can get the first down. On third down, going to Collie is a great idea. He plays smart and he knows where the first down line is. Garcon is the better receiver right now, but Collie definitely has a future on this team. Reggie Wayne is also pretty good I've heard. He's leading the league in receiving yards right now and he makes the most ridiculous plays. He's working his way onto the All-Pro team. Speaking of All-Pros, Dallas Clark is the best tight end in the league. He's left John Carlson, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez in the dust. Clark is reaching his prime, and I would not be surprised to see a nice 1,000 yard, 10 touchdown season out of him. Once Gonzalez gets back, Clark is going to be even tougher to guard. Peyton has the weapons to win yet another MVP.

OL-Left side good, right side bad. That's the best way to describe this line. You could use better grammar, but that is as simple as it gets. Charlie Johnson has been a pleasant surprise and has proven doubters like me wrong. He's a good run blocker and so far he hasn't given up a sack this season. Ryan Lilja is reminding us on why he got that contract instead of Jake Scott. Lilja is a great run blocker. Running to the left side is better than ever with Lilja back. He's a sleeper for the Pro Bowl this year. Saturday is Saturday. He's been great this year and he did well last night. No one is doubting him. The right side is getting ugly. Whenever a former 2nd round pick is rotating with a former center that most recently was seen with the Boise Burn of af2, it's a bad sign for that former first day pick. When that former 2nd round pick is in his second year, it's embarrassing. Kyle DeVan is a good player and there is a reason why he is still with the team, but Pollak was a second round pick. He's not good at all. His play resulted in the interception, and he is clueless on the stretch play. Pollak is a liability, and Diem isn't much better. Running to the right is a death sentence for the drive. There is absolutely no blocking at all. This is the biggest need going into the 2010 draft. I'm perfectly content with Charlie Johnson starting at left tackle down the line, but I do not want Ryan Diem. I would support them moving Ugoh to the right tackle position and grooming him into a future starting job.

DL-Talk about a nice recovery. Against Miami the defensive line was pretty bad. Obviously Dwight Freeney played well in Miami, but no one else really did. Ed Johnson looked lost (and high), and Antonio Johnson was always getting pushed off the line. On Sunday night, I was almost sure that Big Ed was starting in the backfield. How a man that big can get off the line that fast is beyond me. Eric Foster is also becoming a nice rotation player. He played some defensive end as well as defensive tackle last night, and he did great at both positions. He is probably the best at batting down balls on the defensive line, and of course he is great at stopping the run. Antonio Johnson was not as impressive as Foster or Ed, but he didn't do anything to hurt the Colts, which is better than what we could say about the defensive tackles from 2007 and 2008. Without Dwight Freeney for the next two to three weeks, the defensive end position will be very different. As we saw Sunday night, Freeney is superhuman. On almost all 51 passes he hit Warner. He embarrassed Mike Gandy out there. With Freeney out, we will see more of Raheem Brock. Robert Mathis will take over for Freeney in the "Embarrassing Offensive Tackles" department, but there will have to be a rotation. Philip Wheeler played some defensive end Sunday night, and I have always thought that he would be a nice fit at defensive end. Throw in Keyunta Dawson and I can go two games without Freeney.

LBs-Freddy Keiaho didn't suck last night? I know, surprising. He didn't do anything terrible. I am still stunned. Everything I've seen from him would suggest that Kurt Warner would have torn him apart. Keiaho still should not be playing, but it does make Gary Brackett's injury less scary. On the outside, I am very content with Tyjuan Hagler and Clint Session. There is a reason why Hagler is starting over Wheeler, and Session has continued to play well. They are doing very well in stopping the running game. Obviously right now they are no David Thornton or Marcus Washington, but I feel fine with them back there. Jordan Senn did not impress me at all last night. If they have to play a backup linebacker, I would prefer to see Ramon Humber.

DBs-Once Kelvin Hayden and Bob Sanders get back, this will be the best secondary in the league. Jerraud Powers didn't play as well last night as he did against Jacksonville, but he is still the future of the cornerback position along with Hayden. Marlin Jackson did well as the nickelback last night. Is he worth re-signing? I'm not sure. Without a salary cap next year, I say go ahead. It pains me to say this, but Jennings did not suck last night. I still do not want him out on the field since we've all seen what happens when he is sucking. With Hayden hopefully coming back, it won't be a problem. Jacob Lacey is becoming one of my favorite rookies. He was very clutch Sunday night. His stop at the one yard line was HUGE. The next play was the Bethea interception. If Lacey can keep it up, he will work his way into the 4th spot above Tim Jennings. At safety, Antoine Bethea has played well this year. He still isn't the Pro Bowler from his second season, but he is a very good player and a quality starter. Melvin Bullitt has always played well in place of Bobzilla, but he isn't Bob Sanders. Once this team gets Sanders back, it will be even better in pass and run defense. Hopefully Bob will practice this week.

STs-Adam Vinatieri may be losing it. He is very, very close to being 2-5 this year, and he doesn't even kick off anymore. I think that this is the last year for Vinatieri. Next year Andrus will be the kicker. Vinatieri has not looked good this year. In fact, the whole field goal unit has looked bad. The blocking is weak and Vinatieri has been weak. On the other hand, McAfee is still great. On 11 kickoffs, he has 3 touchbacks. McAfee is still punting well. He's averaging about 45 yards per kick and he has 2 kicks inside the 20 on 9 punts. The return game is as expected. Simpson cannot return kicks and Rushing is a decent punt returner.

Top 5 players from the Colts-Cardinals Game

5. Pierre Garcon: Garcon is definitely stepping up when he has to. With Marvin Harrison and Gonzalez gone, he needed to become an acceptable target for Peyton. He's gone above and beyond that. Garcon had his great touchdown where he burnt the corner, and he played well for the rest of the game too. Garcon will end up getting more targets as the year goes on.

4. Reggie Wayne: Wayne is leading the league in receiving yards at this point, and last night he made one of the best catches of his career for a touchdown. He is a big target, and he has shown that he can get it done without Marvin on the other side of the field.

3. Joseph Addai: On 13 carries he got 63 yards and he made two big catches. One was the touchdown screen and the other was when he had to extend his body to come down with a pass that easily could have been a pick. Addai is getting back into 2006 form.

2. Peyton Manning: Manning is the best QB in the league. He is a favorite for the MVP again this year, and he is on pace to throw over 35 touchdowns and 4900 yards. He's pretty good, and Sunday night was his best game so far. He is doing this without Anthony Gonzalez. WOW.

1. Dwight Freeney: Even though Peyton was phenomenal, holding a very good offense to 10 points is a great feat, and Freeney was the main reason. His constant pressure got Warner to make bad throws and it got some sacks too.

Next up, Seattle Seahawks.

Week Three: Colts v. Cardinals Preview

BigBlueShoe — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:23:40 -0000

More photos » by J. Pat Carter - AP

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (18) hands off to running back Donald Brown. (AP Photo/J. Pat Carter)

Browse more photos »

The last time the Indianapolis Colts ventured down to Wyatt Earp country was way back in the day when George W. Bush's father was president, Jeff George had upside, and Macaulay Culkin was beating out the late-Patrick Swayze in the box office wars. Yep, 1990 was when the Colts last played the Arizona Cardinals in the state of Arizona. They were called the Phoenix Cardinals back then, and their bird logo was much less "ferocious" than it is now.

Aside from changing their logo, getting a beautiful new stadium, and inviting the entire state of Arizona to be the "home" of their team (as opposed to just Phoenix), what the Cardinals have managed to do recently is become relevant. For much of their existence in the desert (after moving from St. Louis back in 1988), they were the doormat of both the NFC East (the old division) and the NFC West (their current, geographically correct one). But, with a rejuvenated quarterback in Kurt Warner, a smart head coach, and arguably the most under-rated safety in football (Adrian Wilson), the Cards are no longer an easy team to laugh off and dismiss on your team's schedule.

As we work to do every week, we'll breakdown match-ups and bring in some insight from opposing team's fans for the game. Unlike last week's contest, which featured the Miami Dolphins trying to keep Peyton Manning off the field, the Cardinals will likely attempt to utilize their potent offense to score points early, allowing their pass rushers to tee-off on Manning in order to throw off his timing.

For the Colts, the task of attacking the Cardinals offense poses more problems than anything the "Wild Cat" threw throw at Indy Monday night.

Pretty much from here on out, the Colts defense against the run is going to be a key going into any game. A club cannot give up over 200 rushing yards and expect future opponents to ignore that. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer was brought in specifically to improve the run defense and get the Colts defenders off the field on the third down. He was successful in Week One against the woeful Jaguars. In Week Two, he failed utterly and completely. With the Cardinals this week, Larry Coyer must rebuild his reputation with fans, who are now skeptical that his addition to the club changed anything from the defense we all suffered through last year.

To attack the Cardinals, a defense must attack Kurt Warner. His story is amazing and inspiring, and while he can often be deadly accurate with the football, the fact is the man is a walking turnover waiting to happen. He is horrible at protecting the football both in how he receives the snap and how he holds the ball in the pocket. Also, his decision making is sometimes suspect. Many bash Brett Favre for his "gunslinger" mentality. Warner is just as bad. Look no further than the Super Bowl to witness Warner throwing a bad, game-killing INT at a crucial moment. And even though Warner has played in this league for many years, he has never had to face Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. He last faced the Colts in 2001, the year before they drafted Freeney and two years before they drafted Robert Mathis.

If you read what Cardinals fans are writing about the game, the match-up of Freeney and Mathis with Zona's offensive line is not one that seems to favor the red birds:

Bezekira: I shutter to think what Freeney and that wicked spin move would do to [Mike] Gandy or God-forbid [Levi] Brown if we try to leave those guys on an island. I sure hope that Whiz sticks a TE over there or leaves a back in to chip him because he’ll absolutely kill Warner if it’s a one on one situation.

On offense, the Colts must continue to improve running the ball. Indy averaged 5.5 yards a carry against the Dolphins, but that was only on 11 carries. The Cardinals sport a tough run D, which is allowing only 56.5 yards per game. Despite this stout run defense, the Colts must get Joseph Addai and Donald Brown going. They must sustain a few long drives and give their defense some rest. Indy must use the run to set-up the pass, which matches up well with Zona's seemingly mediocre pass defense.

The conventional thought is that this game will be a "shoot out." For me, that's unlikely. Any team trying to win a shootout with the Colts will lose, even an opponent sporting talented WRs like Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. The Colts offense is too efficient and too well-coached. They rarely make mistakes, and if teams are trying to throw on Indy, they are playing to Indy's strength. Indy sports (arguably) the best secondary in football, and their pass rushers can generate pressure with just the front four.

My feeling is Arizona will try to run the ball more. They like Beanie Wells (even though they likely would have drafted Donald Brown ahead of him if Indy hadn't snatched him up) and Tim Hightower, and will look to use Indy's run defense to get their running game going. The Colts must counter this by simply playing better. There are no more excuses with this run defense. Players like Ed Johnson, Antonio Johnson, Daniel Muir, and Eric Foster are a talented bunch. Safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea are excellent. So, the issues are not "size" or "talent" or anything like that. The key to Indy's run defense is the interior players must start dominating. We know they can. They know they can. Now, we need to see them do it. The Cardinals sported the worst rushing attack in the league last year. This year, after two weeks, they are still hovering near the bottom.

This is a match-up the Colts should take advantage of.

They are capable to controlling Arizona's running game, and if the Cards get behind and start throwing it more than they want to, that favors Indy and the Freeney Express.

Out for the game are Anthony Gonzalez and Bob Sanders. Likely out is Gary Brackett, who is day-to-day with a sore knee. Freddy Keiaho (ugh!) will probably start at MIKE. Kelvin Hayden said he expected to play, but he was held out of Thursday's practice with a sore hamstring. If Hayden and Jerraud Powers play, it makes me feel better about covering Arizona's deadly receivers. However, if one or both are hurt, it means more Tim Jennings. Double ugh! However, it seems likely that one or both of the Powers and Hayden combo will play, which is very good news.

As always, the fine work at Revenge Of The Birds (who sport the best blog logo in the network, btw) makes the lead-up to this exciting game all the more enjoyable. Check out Hawkwind interviwing me prior to the game along with shake n bake answering questions from Cardinals fans.

Go Colts!

Colts vs Cardinals coverage

Colts vs Cardinals preview

Recap: Colts 27-Dolphins 23

BigBlueShoe — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:53:01 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey M. Boan - AP

2 months ago: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon scores on a touchdown run during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins on Monday, Sept. 21, 2009, in Miami. The Colts defeated the Dolphins 27-23. (AP Photo/Jeffrey M. Boan)

Browse more photos »

Lots of people make a big deal out of three statistics: Time of possession, running the ball, and stopping the run. Pundits, coaches, and fans alike talk endlessly about the need to control all three, often saying they are vital to any team winning a football game. But, as we have often said here in the past, these three statistics are highly over-rated.

This is a throwing league. If you can throw the ball and stop the throw, you will win. It's that simple.

Last night's game, coupled with the NY Giants beating the Dallas Cowboys the night before, prove that running the ball is a highly over-rated and over-valued statistic. You must throw the ball to score and win in this league.

Now, before I go into the details and who-done-whats of this wild and entertaining game at Landshark Stadium in Miami, let me clarify why throwing the ball and stopping the pass are more important than running the ball and stopping the run. This is a league built around quarterbacks and scoring TDs. Rules like enforced illegal contact, pass interference, and new low hit rules to protect the QB (aka, the "Brady rule") are all designed to make it easier, safer, and more entertaining to throw the ball than to run it. As ESPN's Ron Jaworski astutely says during just about every Monday Night Football telecast, Points come out of the passing game. And if you cannot score throwing it in this league, especially in the red zone, you are going to lose football games.

For the Dolphins last night, and the Cowboys the night before, both teams ran for well over 200 yards. They used a combination of both power and finesse to control the line of scrimmage. In the case of the Cowboys v. Giants, NY was unable to get a consistent running game going themselves, and running the ball is their bread and butter. They managed just 3.7 yards rushing to 8.7 for the Cowboys. The difference in the ball game was the net yards per passing play. The Giants averaged 8.7 yards a pass; the Cowboys 4.4, and several costly turnovers from QB Tony Romo. By the way, turnovers factor into yards per completion in passing statistics.

When you look at this stat in the Colts v. Dolphins contest, the average yards per pass jumps out at you like a land-walking shark with a laser cannon strapped to his back. Indy averaged 12.3 yards per pass; Miami a measly 4.7.

I'll type it one for time, and even throw some bold in just to be obnoxious: Running the ball is over-rated.

You must throw the ball effectively in this league to win. Anyone who says otherwise simply does not understand modern football. More breakdown after the jump.

The formula to "beat" the Colts is simple, according to Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano (an intelligent coach who seemed to whine and cry his way through the post-game press conference). The formula involves running the ball, controlling the clock, blah, blah, blah, blah. All are typical Bill Parcells keys to winning, and all are over-rated and out-dated, especially in the regular season. The Dolphins used conventional and "wildcat" formations to hold onto the football for over 45 minutes. They also converted 71% of their third downs, and limited the Colts to just one series (a three-and-out) in the third quarter.

The problem for Miami is the same problem everyone else has when they play "keep away" from the Colts: When you only average 4.8 yards per play and score just 23 points, you are not likely to beat a Peyton Manning-led team. Hell, you can't beat an Eli Manning-led team doing that.

With a Colts passing game averaging over 12 yards a competition and a running game averaging 5.5 a carry, Indy didn't need 45 minutes to score over 20-plus points. The first play from scrimmage in the ball game was an 80 yard bomb from Manning to Dallas Clark, who is now firmly established as the best TE in football. When Jason Witten or Antonio Gates can make an 80 yard TD like Clark's last night, call me. Until then, shut up with calling them "the best." Clark is the best, no doubt.

Indy was able to score quickly and efficiently, answering almost every Miami score with a score themselves. Indy took advantage of Miami's poor corner and safety play, gaining large chunks of yardage throwing over the middle to the TEs and on crossing routes. Indy also did a good job protecting Manning using only five or six blockers, while the Dolphins seemed to be in max protect all night. This also used a lot of TE motion to chip players like Freeney and Mathis.

Here are more key observations from the game:

Charlie Johnson played very well, and the Colts o-line overall was very good. 5.5 a rush against a very stout Miami defense is a step in the right direction.
Peyton Manning continues to show why he is the best QB in the league. You do not see teams try and play keep away from Tom Brady.
The Wild Cat offense gave the Colts fits all game long. Despite practicing all week for it, the Colts looked lost, confused, and frustrated by it. Tackling was piss poor, and both Ed Johnson and Antonio Johnson were routinely blown off the ball. They simply did not know what to do.
Tim Jennings was hot and cold all night. One second, he makes a great tackle on a run play. The next, he's giving ten yard cushions to Ten Ginn Jr. on a 3rd and 7.
Gary Brackett seemed to hurt his knee late in the fourth quarter. I pray to God he is OK.
Pierre Garcon is one fast dude. He outran the entire Dolphins defense on that screen TD pass from Manning.
Adam Vinatieri is money. And yes, he called bank.
The Colts did not commit a turnover on offense and committed only one offensive penalty (5 yards), which they overcame. Outstanding!
Colts special teams outplayed the Dolphins. Playing "keep away" can work against the Colts, but only if the opponent's special teams play very well (see San Diego Chargers in the playoffs last year). Miami was unable to really pin the Colts using their kicking game, and Indy's coverage units played well all night. Miami's Dan Carpenter also missed a crucial 49 yard FG badly in the third quarter.

Now, all that said, Indy's "formula" for winning cannot sustain. The Colts simply must do a better job stopping the run if they want to have any kind of meaningful success this year. However, four other teams rushed for over 200 yards on their opponents this past weekend, and only one of those teams won (the 49ers). So, before people start pressing the run defense panic button, just know that a stout defense like the Giants got run over as well. Yet, like the Colts, they still won. Indy has good DTs, excellent coaches, and a strong system. Their run defense will improve.

The positives you can take away are that the offensive line played brilliantly, Adam Vinatieri seems healthy enough to make clutch kicks, and Manning is god. Also, young receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepped up big while Miami double covered Reggie Wayne all night. Joseph Addai averaged 5.5 a carry, and made several strong runs on first down. And rookie Donald Brown looked like he was shot from a cannon on his fourth quarter TD run off a draw play.

As always, great job by Matty I and the Dolphins fans at The Phinsider. Check their post-game recap here.

Unlike last year, our team is 2-0 and looks ready to improve. Props to Jim Caldwell, who got his first road victory as a head coach, and to Peyton Manning, who passed John Unitas as the all-time "winner" at QB for the Colts.

Go Colts!

Colts vs Dolphins boxscore

Colts vs Dolphins coverage

Poll

Week Two game balls go to...

QB Peyton Manning: 303 yards, 2 TDs, all on 13 completions

521 votes

RB Donald Brown: 26 yards rushing on 4 attempts, 1 TD

11 votes

WR Pierre Garcon: 1 catch, 48 yards, 1 TD

23 votes

TE Dallas Clark: 7 catches, 183 yards, 1 TD

349 votes

K Adam Vinatieri: 2 clutch FGs from over 40 yards

11 votes

DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis: 2 sacks, numerous pressures

12 votes

LB Clint Session: 9 tackles

7 votes

934 votes | Poll has closed

Colts v. Jaguars Recap: One Week In, Already On Top

Colts Homer — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 02:30:37 -0000

More photos » by AJ Mast - AP

3 months ago: Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai runs in the first half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Indianapolis. The Colts won 14-12. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Browse more photos »

It is only Week One and the Colts have the lead in the AFC South. The Colts beat the Jaguars, the Titans lose in overtime to the defending champion Steelers and the Texans embarrass themselves against the Jets. The Colts have a game up on everyone which is a nice luxury. You can look at it as next week is the start of the season and the Colts were spotted a game. It is a very good thing that everyone else is 0-1.

The Colts had what appeared to be a normal first game of the season. Some places looked rusty but some looked very impressive. It was 14-12, but the Colts really did outplay the Jaguars by more than that. An interception at the goal line cost the Colts at least 3 points and a rare Addai fumble in Colts territory also cost the team some points. However, unless if there is some rule change that I am blissfully unaware of, there are no such thing as style points. The Colts weren't pretty, but they are 1-0, which I feel is more important.

What I Liked

The short yardage running game with Addai. There are 3 plays I look at when I analyze how Addai did in short yardage situations in this game. Two of his carries were on a third and short in Colts territory that he showed amazing speed on and got within the five. One of those runs was followed by the Manning interception, but the other was followed by an Addai touchdown. Addai had a good game in short yardage.

The decision to start Charlie Johnson over Tony Ugoh. I was tough on Johnson in the preseason, but he didn't play well in the preseason. Today he played great. He gave up no sacks. Most of the pressure from the Jaguars came from the right side of the line with Reggie Hayward. The biggest hit from Manning on the left side was on his touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne. Johnson also did well in the running game. Addai's good short yardage carries went to the left side. Johnson did a fantastic job in shutting down Derrick Harvey. Let's see how he does next week against Joey Porter next week. If he can keep Porter from getting a sack, I may have to believe that Johnson is an acceptable left tackle in the National Football League.

Larry Coyer. This may fall under love. Larry Coyer's spin on the Tampa-2 is a thing of beauty. The Colts held Maurice Jones-Drew to 97 rushing yards and they actually got off of the field. Believe it or not, the Colts won the possession battle today. It is amazing. Don't say it is because of the changes in players. Besides Jerraud Powers, all of the starters were starters on the team last year at some point. The starting defensive tackles were Antonio Johnson and Eric Foster, the two best defensive tackles from the team last season. The players were the same. It was the defensive coordinator that was the change. This great performance by the defense was because of the change of defensive coordinator. They went from a bad defensive coordinator who I believe never went to a practice and worked with a team to someone who is looking like the biggest addition to the team this offseason.

Click on the little link below this to read what I didn't like and a position-by-position breakdown of the game.

What I didn't like

Not winning the turnover battle. The Colts had 2 turnovers. The Jaguars had none. That won't work when they play New England or Baltimore. The Colts need to force turnovers. The only time the Colts were even close to a turnover was when Jerraud Powers levitated off of the ground and almost picked off a pass in the endzone which was one of the most impressive plays I've seen from a Colts cornerback. Next week they need to pressure Chad Pennington and force him into bad decisions.

The stretch play. It's not that I have a problem with the play itself, just the guys up front trying to block for it. I think Ryan Lilja might be a little rusty on it, but what is the excuse for Diem and Pollak? Running to the right side was an automatic loss of yards. The Jaguars front 7 is not that good. Donald Brown and Joseph Addai are good running backs who should be able to run all over this defense. There needs to be some changes on the offensive line, starting with the right side of it.

Special Teams. It is still a serious problem even with Coach R here. The wedge rule changes should have helped kick coverage, but the Jaguars still routinely got to the 30 yard line while Simpson only had one good return that was mostly due to great blocking by Ramon Humber.

Now here's a position-by-position breakdown of the team.

QBs

Peyton Manning started his 177th straight game and won his 118th game. Those 118 wins tie the team record with Johnny Unitas. Manning did it in 5 less starts. Folks, we are watching one of the greatest players in football history. Even if he didn't have his best game today, he did enough to win it. He made good throws and connected with Reggie Wayne. Let's see what he can do in a few weeks when Gonzalez is back. Peyton Manning had his 300 yards, but that interception hurt. He had some bad passes, but Peyton never plays well in Week One. He's healthy this year and next week we should see the real Peyton we all know and love.

RBs

Even though they only got 75 yards, they got me excited. Donald Brown is an animal. I honestly believe that he is going to be an elite running back in this league once he gets the offensive line he deserves. Addai is going to rejuvenate his career as a short yardage back if he keeps it up. I support starting Downtown Donald Brown but playing Addai on short yardage plays and in the goal line. That's where Addai does best. Brown does best with space. I want to see Brown have five catches a game. When he gets in the open field he is magic. He jumped over defenders, broke tackles and did whatever he could to get the first down. By Week 17 the Colts running game will finally be good again.

WRs/TEs

Anthony Gonzalez's injury is a bummer. He was ready for a breakout year but he will have to wait two to six weeks. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon did okay in his place. Collie had 2 catches for 15 yards and Garcon had 3 catches for 24 yards. However, neither of those guys are Anthony Gonzalez. I expect Taj Smith to be signed on Monday from the practice squad and hopefully Tim Jennings will be cut. He is useless. He doesn't contribute on special teams and with Jerraud Powers on the team he has no chance of getting time on defense. Jacob Lacey and TJ Rushing are better cornerbacks. Jennings wasn't good last year and he doesn't deserve a roster spot. With Taj Smith off the practice squad it would open a spot for Terrance Taylor. I would support that greatly. On the tight end side, Jacob Tamme got some action. On the only time he was thrown to he had a nice 6 yard reception. With Gonzalez out he may see more of the field in a slot receiver's role.

The pass blocking was fine. Peyton was only sacked once and he was never under a lot of pressure. The run blocking was horrendous though. It might have been worse than last year. The right side of the line is a mess. Mike Pollak is looking more and more like a bust. The stretch play to the right side is a death sentence. Any run to the right side is a death sentence. Almost every decent run was to the left side. Right tackle and right guard are the two biggest concerns on the team. There was no run blocking on the right side. Peyton got clobbered by a Jaguar coming from the right side of the line. I'm worried about the O-line.

Here's a line I am not worried about. The defensive line was phenomenal. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis got great pressure on Garrard. Freeney had one sack and a bunch of hits on Garrard. Mathis got pressure on Garrard on the final drive. The defensive tackles also did well. They stuffed the two point conversion that ended up being the difference. Eric Foster and Antonio Johnson did a great job of clogging up the middle. All of the big MJD runs were outside runs. He didn't get anything up the middle. Think of how good the line will be with Fili Moala and Ed Johnson back next week. I'm excited to see Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams stuffed multiple times eight days from now.

LBs

I wasn't thrilled by the linebackers but they weren't a problem. Sure they had a little bit of trouble stopping MJD at times, but Session and Hagler had some nice tackles while Gary Brackett did well blitzing on the final drive. I am much less worried about this unit than I was going into the game. As long as Freddie Keiaho doesn't have to see the field they will be fine. I'm looking forward to seeing Philip Wheeler get out there and blitz. He could absolutely dominate in Coyer's system. He will be starting soon.

DBs

Jerraud Powers is amazing. What a steal he was. I think he has earned a starting job over Marlin Jackson to be honest. He shut down the Jaguars' receivers. It is impossible to overstate how pleasant of a surprise he has been. He is a future star at cornerback. The third round curse is over, people. Kelvin Hayden also had a great game. There is a reason why the Colts only gave up 6 touchdown passes last season. It's because the Colts secondary is the best in the league. Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea didn't do anything of note, but they didn't mess up anything either. Hopefully Bob Sanders will be back in the next few weeks or so. This defense will be one of the best in the league with a healthy Bob Sanders.

Special Teams

Stinks. The return game stinks. The kick coverage stinks. The punting was amazing though. Pat McAfee is thousands of times better than Hunter the Punter. Opponents are averaging starting at the five yard line with him punting. Obviously we can't expect that to continue, but we can expect no big returns off of McAfee punts. He is the best punter the Colts have ever had and I think he may be one of the best in the league.

Next week the Colts travel to Miami to take on the 0-1 Dolphins. The Dolphins didn't play well against the Falcons, but they have an extra day to prepare for it. That's right. It's a Monday night game. I'm not a fan, but it is nice for the out-of-town Colts fans on Stampede Blue. Everyone will be able to watch the game. Maybe we will surpass the 1600 comments we had today!

Good game today. Hopefully a good game next Monday.

Poll

Player of the Game?

Reggie Wayne

554 votes

Pat McAfee

65 votes

Peyton Manning

50 votes

Jerraud Powers

97 votes

Gary Brackett

16 votes

Dwight Freeney

64 votes

Other (please state in comments)

5 votes

851 votes | Poll has closed

Jaguars v. Colts: Key Matchups

Colts Homer — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 07:07:29 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

This man needs to have a big game in his first game and start as a member of the Indianapolis Colts. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Browse more photos »

After the depressing day of college football, I'm ready to see the Colts pass all over the Jaguars and run the ball if winning with only a couple of minutes left. Damn you Michigan...

Anyways, this game will have the most interesting matchups of the season. We don't know how some of the new starters will do today. There are some rookies that will be getting significant playing time and some other players with little experience seeing a lot of game action. They will be players to look for today with the start of the Colts season. Here are some key matchups for today's game.

Colts LT Charlie Johnson v. Jaguars RE Derrick Harvey: This is the biggest matchup of the game. Charlie Johnson is the top left tackle on this team now, and his first start is against a highly touted and very fast defensive end. Harvey had just 3.5 sacks last year, but he should have a bigger year this year. He was always a project player and he was taken too high. However he is going up against a shaky left tackle who I personally don't trust that much. If Charlie can't block Harvey and Peyton is getting hit, then this becomes a much tougher game.

Rest are after the jump.

Colts Front 7 v. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD has always dominated the Colts. It's usually embarrassing. His worst yards per carry against the Colts is 4. He's had a touchdown in every game against the Colts except for two. He feasts on the Colts defense. However this is not the usual Colts defense. The defensive tackles are big. The linebackers are better. This should be a better defense than the ones that Jones-Drew murdered. Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir have got to get a good burst off of the line and try and at least hit him in the backfield and slow him down. This year the starting defensive tackles aren't defensive ends playing on the inside. They have the size necessary to play defensive tackle and the defensive ends are pretty big too. This should be a huge factor. If the Colts offense is on the field for at least 28 minutes they will win by double digits.

Colts CB Jerraud Powers v. Jaguars WR Troy Williamson: Jerraud Powers is starting in his first game with the Colts. Marlin Jackson is still a little banged up from his knee injury last year so they are starting him off as the nickel back. This is a huge matchup. As we all know, Troy Williamson is not a good wide receiver, but anything can happen in a single game. If Powers can play as well as he did in the preseason the Colts will be in good shape. I think cornerback might be one of the strongest positions for the Colts. I have a feeling that Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey will both look like amazing pickups from this rookie class. If these corners can shut down the passing game and make the Jags one-dimensional, it will almost guarantee a Colts victory.

Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez v. Jaguars CB Derek Cox: Anthony Gonzalez has finally worked his way into the number 2 spot at wide receiver. We all know that he was the number 2 receiver last year with how poorly Marvin played, but now his playing time and respect from the defense will increase. Derek Cox is his first test. Cox is a rookie out of William & Mary who has the tough assignment of going up against a receiver that is ready to break out. I feel like Anthony Gonzalez could have an amazing year this year. His hands are so reliable and he has been a great deep threat. I'm feeling like Gonzalez could have the year that Reggie Wayne had in his third year as a pro. Wayne had 838 yards and 7 touchdowns. I think Gonzalez could surpass that. He needs to get off to a hot start. A rookie corner would be perfect to start out a nice year with.

These are the main matchups for this game. I feel very good about this game even if it is the first game of the season. I am going to predict a 31-17 win for the Colts. The Colts should be a very different team this year. I expect to see very few mistakes and a lot of rushing yards. GO COLTS!

Week 1: Friday Injury Report, News

shake n bake — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:39:39 -0000

Not surprises on the Colts side today. Sanders (knee), Silva (abdomen) and Santi (ankle) missed practice again are have been ruled out for Sunday. Fili Moala sat out a second day of practice with a knee issue. He is listed as questionable. Jennings was back after being rested Thursday, while Marlin Jackson got today off for rest.

Out: Bob Sanders, Jamie Silva, Tom Santi

Questionable: Fili Moala (missed Thursday and Friday practice)

Colts.com link

On the Jags side Thomas (back) and Landri (knee) were limited in practice. Both are listed as probable. Zach Miller (the lesser) missed a 3rd practice this week and has been ruled out due to a knee injury.

Out: Zach Miller

Probable: Tra Thomas, Derek Landri

Jaguars.com link

Phil B expects Fili Moala to sit, but doubts he'll see significant time even if he suits up.

John Oesher reports that Antonio Johnson, Daniel Muir and Eric Foster is the Colts likely defensive tackle rotation for Sunday, according to Coach Caldwell.