SB Nation - Donald Driver

Packers-Ravens Retroactive Live-Blog

Mitchell_M — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:13:49 -0000

It's been two months since I've really been active on the site. For some of you, that is a terrible tragedy. For many, many more, it is a source of endless joy. But today I decided to cater to the minority and make my presence known by throwing a mini-fiesta with my DVR, a bowl of Reese's Puffs, and a strong pot of coffee.

Before we get going with the retroactive live-blog, let me just share some of the knowledge I've gained over the course of working for 80 out of a possible 168 hours in a week:

There are few things more traumatic than the transition from college-life to real-life. I imagine it's somewhat like being born, except you're slightly more conscious and slightly less sticky.

Unlike most co-eds, I worked my way through and avoided drinking my way out of school, but nothing can truly prepare you for the real world. There's chores? You have to do them, otherwise you're living in filth. There's bills? You have to pay them, otherwise a large Italian gentleman will break your ribs. There's family gatherings you'd rather not attend? You have to go to them, because you don't have the homework excuse anymore.

Real life blows, I'm going to grad school.
Trying to keep in shape? Don't work overnights. You will have no energy whatsoever during the daytime hours. I play basketball to keep myself in shape and satisfy my over-competitiveness, and I love it. But I haven't played in two months, and I've gotten noticably soft. Amazing, considering I've lost weight.
Dry spells. Guys, when women say that they're too tired, it's generally a toss-up between them actually being tired and not wanting to deal with you. When a guy says it? Definitely tired.
Caffeine has an odd effect after consuming too much for it. The most noticeable symptom is when you're lying down after finally getting home and you get the ringing in the ears. It keeps me up for at least half an hour, and my mom (who worked 3rd shift for over a decade) says it doesn't go away. Awesome.
Watching sports is a major hassle. Not only do I miss the majority of my Sunday NFL-watching, but working nights has ruined any chance I have of watching any NBA games during the week. DVR has been my best friend, but it somehow isn't enough.

On to the live-blog! I DVR'd this last night and watched it immediately as I got home. I did not check the score at any time on Monday night, and I have no knowledge whatsoever of the outcome. Enjoy!

Pre-game observations:

I forgot how cool of an environment Lambeau is on national TV at night. Other cities have their stadiums surrounded by other big buildings with big, bright lights, but Lambeau sort of stands alone in the still-tiny Green Bay. It's kind of cool, even though it's quaint.
Another thing I forgot? Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski are still in the MNF booth. Let's put it this way: it took roughly two minutes for Gruden to make the first (of what I predict will be many) "Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood" jokes. Ugh.
Ed Reed is announced as inactive for the game. Good timing to get the Ravens without their ball-hawk extraordinaire, not to mention good time by ESPN's cameras, who immediately cut to Reed spitting an enormous loogie. Between that and the beard, he looks like a homeless guy (who makes roughly 100,000x my salary).
Ray Lewis may have lost a step or four, but he's still quite the motivational speaker. It's like if Lil' Jon was coherent and dread-less.
The Nike Kobe and LeBron puppets are back. Frowny-face.
And here comes the Ray Rice love. Am I pleasantly surprised by my alma mater's best football product? Yes. Am I ecstatic to have drafted him (against my then-better judgement) in the ninth round of my keeper league? Yes and yes.

Alright, enough of that. Let's play some ball, gentlemen.

First Quarter!

15:00 - Green Bay receives, and Jordy Nelson avoids both tacklers and fumble-itis all the way to the 43-yard line. Decent start.

14:34 - A play-action draw pass? Sounds terrible, but it gained 7.

13:59 - So that's why we still have Brandon Jackson. Excellent scramble by Rodgers to find Jackson in the flat for the first down.

12:44 - Ravens call a timeout (symptom of missing Ed Reed #1), and the next thing we see is Jimmy Football. If someone were to kick him in the groin, I would not object. Extra points for wearing a Billy Mays mask and demanding royalties from Budweiser.

12:32 - ESPN shows a graphic illustrating Aaron Rodgers' awesomeness on 3rd down, and he promptly finds James Jones for a first down. Outstanding blitz pickup by both Chad Clifton (the blocker) and Scott Wells (the center).

11:22 - Korey Hall and Josh Sitton pancake Ray Lewis, opening a hole for Grant to gain a first down. In other news, Did you know that Ryan Grant is 8th in the league in rushing yards? When did that happen?

10:08 - ESPN continues the Rodgers love-fest by displaying his red-zone stats. Apparently, he has 30 TDs and 0 INTs over the past two seasons when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Yikes.

9:17 - Mark Tauscher comes up with a tipped pass and gets tackled for a loss. I'd criticize his decision to catch it versus batting it down, but whenever linemen get the ball, they seem so damn happy. I can't ruin it for him.

8:41 - Mason Crosby nearly shanks a 28-yarder. The Green Bay offense stalls in the red zone again, settling for the "easy" 3. Sadly, neither are surprises this season.

8:30 - Le'Ron McClain's smile is hilarious. Mark Clayton looks like 50 Cent. I can't wait to see the offensive linemen.

8:30 - And for good reason. Not only is Marshal Yanda's name funny, but he looks like an uncomfortable 7th grader who hasn't gotten used to his new body yet.

7:40 - Good containment on Ray Rice in the flat, but not good enough. First down, Baltimore.

7:01 - Flacco tightropes for a just-barely first down after being flushed out of the pocket. He may have looked like an idiot doing it, but it was probably better than getting pasted by Cullen Jenkins. I'll make fun of him either way.

5:05 - Bad decision by Nick Collins to go for the pick instead of batting down the ball. Another first down for Baltimore.

4:18 - Well, a fumble recovery certainly absolves Collins of any wrongdoing on the previous play. Clay Matthews is closing in on the "if a huge defensive play happens he must've had something to do with it" status currently held by Charles Woodson.

4:08 - Ryan Grant tries to return the favor, but his right knee looked like it could be down. Maybe. Possibly. Could go either way. This time, it goes the Packers' way.

3:48 - A great play by Dominique Foxworth that was (un)fortunately flagged as interference. The replay shows a grab or two, but probably

3:39 - No matter, Rodgers throws it directly to Tom ~~I-can't-spell-his-last-name-unless-I-check-the-recap-which-will-ruin-the-ending~~ Zbikowski.

2:06 - Now that's how you commit pass interference! Thanks ~~Atari Bigby~~ Tramon Williams! /facepalm

1:52 - Nick Collins makes everyone forget about Williams' transgression by picking off an ill-advised flea-flicker pass into quadruple coverage. Yeah, Flacco shouldn't have done that.

0:00 - An underwhelming first quarter filled with above-average defense and one boneheaded interception for both sides. 3-0, Green Bay.

Second Quarter!

14:52 - B.J. Raji sheds a block and drops Ray Rice for a big loss. Lucky he didn't get called for face masking, but a good play nonetheless.

14:12 - Derrick Mason just barely misses a catchable ball to force 4th down. I thought veteran receivers were supposed to make that play? I guess having Donald Driver on your team gives you a skewed expectation for aging wideouts.

13:14 - Great adjustment by James Jones to come back and grab the ball for a first down. He's definitely taken control of the 3rd WR spot on this team lately.

11:59 - By my count, that's three catches in this game that Jennings should have had but failed to come up with. This troubles me.

11:55 - Punting inside the 50-yard line? Greg Easterbrook would be appalled, then proceed to write a 10,000 word article about it. Shoot, if I included random interstellar factoids, referred to certain teams by ridiculous self-coined nicknames, and added superfluous cheerleader facts that allowed me to post their photos, I'd be Greg Easterbrook.

11:13 - Trey Wingo informs us that Jimmy Clausen will be entering the 2010 NFL Draft. Brady Quinn advises him to stay in school.

11:06 - Charles Woodson gets busted for mauling Derrick Mason. The groping wasn't necessary, Chuck.

11:01 - Clay Matthews asserts himself all over Joe Flacco. Jared Gaither doesn't know what just happened.

10:21 - Offsides on Clay Matthews? Jared Gaither claims to know what happened on the previous play.

9:48 - I know Jordy Nelson was dynamite at Kansas State, but I haven't seen enough promise out of him to merit keeping him on punt returns. Then again, it's more important to keep Woodson and Williams fresh, and Will Blackmon made his yearly trip to I.R. early this season.

8:30 - Haloti Ngata owns Daryn Colledge to drop Ryan Grant at the line. I wonder how long until Colledge loses his spot?

7:51 - It's plays like this that got Frank Walker traded. Thanks for the yardage!

7:42 - Ahman Green exhibits remarkable blitz pickup to spring Jermichael Finley on a big gain. Mike Tirico noted this, and Gruden promptly refers to him as Brandon Jackson (twice!) before correcting himself.

5:08 - Jermichael Finley makes another big play, thanks to another great third down throw from Rodgers. First and goal, Packers.

4:35 - I'm no psychic, but as soon as I saw Finley split out wide, I saw the quick fade coming. Fantastic throw, outstanding catch, b-e-a-utiful play. 10-0, Packers.

4:35 - I just remembered my fantasy football situation. Going into this week, three teams in my division were 7-5, with me among them. I play one of them this week and the other next week, and the other already has his victory wrapped up. I'm up 130-24 in a game I need to win to move into a tie for first place and help secure a playoff spot next week (the final week of the season). My opponent has Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, and the Packers defense playing. I have Ray Rice. Man, am I glad that his other players (Adrian Peterson, Reggie Wayne, Ricky Williams) all laid eggs.

2:00 - The two-minute warning comes up, and Mike Tirico just got done "highlighting" the Packers' 38-28 loss to Tampa Bay. In the team meeting the described, he said that the offensive line stood up and said something to the effect of "hey, you have to help us out too". I hope I misheard him.

1:50 - Rodgers gets the first on a sneak, and a fight nearly breaks out because Brandon Jackson is protecting Rodgers from what he thought was a late hit. Whether he was right or wrong, it is nice to see that kind of fight in your team.

1:24 - Donald Driver goes flying, earning Baltimore its 11th pass interference penalty on the year, leading the league.

1:18 - Green Bay ruins the momentum by giving up their first sack of the game. /facepalm

1:09 - And Rodgers gets it right back with a 20-yard scramble right up the middle. I take back my /facepalm.

0:38 - Rodgers delivers a Jon-Gruden-Quarterback-Fraternity-Approved LASER to Greg Jennings' back shoulder. Nice, except for Gruden's rambling.

0:32 - Rodgers connects with Donald Driver for a score, punctuated by two acrobatic leaps by Driver (one into the end zone, one into the stands). The Packer fan in me is ecstatic: the fantasy football owner is frantic.

0:00 - A solid defensive stand by Green Bay keeps the shutout alive. 17-0 Green Bay, at the half.

Halftime observations:

None. I have to be at work again in 8 hours (as of 1 PM), and I haven't slept yet. But the score doesn't lie. This game is totally worth staying up for.

Third Quarter!

14:07 - I don't know how they practiced for the past week and a half, but Green Bay is absolutely starving Ray Rice. He's trying his damndest, but he can't make anything happen. Why'd I start him against the #1 defense again?

12:31 - Brad Jones notches a sack from the strong side. Rookie 7th round pick? No matter. Boring name? Who cares? Buried on the depth chart? Not for long, I hope.

12:05 - Ryan Grant doesn't gain a ton of yards on this play, but it looks as if he's churning his legs and fighting for extra yardage more than I'm used to seeing from him. Did anyone else notice this?

9:57 - Rodgers gets time in the pocket, makes even more time, dances around, and finally gets sacked. Somehow, the play is negated by an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty. It seems like one of those games for Green Bay tonight.

9:30 - Then Scott Wells gets called for holding. Yep, it's definitely one of those games for Green Bay tonight, even if the score doesn't reflect it.

9:04 - Wow, I'm going to stop complaining about stupid penalties. I almost feel bad for Ravens fans. P.I. number twelve on the year for Baltimore.

8:27 - Jermichael Finley re-injures his knee. Not at all happy to see that.

8:23 - Nice connection to Driver that results in a fumble that quite possibly could be ruled an incompletion, if it was reviewed. Blah, a 17-0 lead in the third quarter shouldn't be this frustrating.

8:01 - Jon Gruden: "Somebody has to rescue the Ravens' offense right now." Yeah, that's Ray Rice's job, and he didn't come in today.

7:50 - As if on cue, Ray Rice rips off a big run. Jon Gruden gets to feel smart, and I lose a little bit of my soul.

6:07 - Jon Gruden praises Charles Woodson's ball-raking ability. The adolescent-me giggles uncontrollably.

5:18 - "Nobody strips a ball like Charles Woodson!" Adolescent-me is now crying with laughter.

5:13 - Todd Heap drops a sure-fire 1st and goal, then Tramon Williams forces Mark Clayton to drop one in the end zone with a slightly-more sneaky arm bar. Illegal? Yes. Effective? Absolutely, that's why it's illegal.

3:35 - I don't know what the refs were talking about before this drive, but they are letting the defense play. You don't see many drives last this long against a defense that's getting away with everything.

3:28 - A free play and a Kelley Washington touchdown deflates the stadium. The play gets challenged, but I'm skeptical.

3:28 - Modern Warfare 2 commercial, set to Eminem's "Til I Collapse". Best 30 seconds of non-football I've seen today. Get that game, if you can handle it.

3:28 - Turns out that I was right; the score stands. Green Bay is out of challenges for the game, unless of course they used the item cheat and got one for free. 17-7, Packers.

3:22 - Evan Dietrich-Smith comes up with the kickoff. My immediate thought: "This cannot end well." Of course he fumbled, but Green Bay was lucky enough to regain possession.

3:14 - Jared Johnson gets an interception off of Driver's shin. I'm not liking this third quarter. Too much bad mojo.

3:07 - More bad mojo with Tramon Williams' P.I. in the end zone. Actually, this one is relatively tame compared to other plays the refs have allowed tonight (today?).

2:58 - Willis McGahee pushes his fantasy-irrelevant self in from the 1. Makes my Ray Rice decision feel even better. 17-14, Packers. /double facepalm

2:43 - Jennings manages a nice gain on a 3rd and 10 slant. I was just about to start considering wondering whether or not Green Bay was possibly maybe starting to lose it.

1:52- Ray Lewis nearly decapitates Greg Jennings, and the flag takes forever to come in. But it does, which is all that matters.

0:42 - A Mark Tauscher hold takes Green Bay out of the red zone the same way they got in: on the yellow cloth road.

0:00 - I knew this game seemed too sloppy to be a blowout. 17-14, Packers, but our guys are in scoring position.

Fourth Quarter!

14:50 - Mason Crosby shanks a field goal, leaving the drive with nothing to show for it. Same score, same story. I sure hope the defense can regain its first-half composure.

13:53 - Flacco unleashes the dragon deep, Derrick Mason gets past Charles Woodson and makes the catch over him, but somehow got called for offensive pass interference. At this point, I don't know which team is trying to give the other team more breaks, honestly. And an unsportsmanlike penalty on Mason is tacked on at the end of it. A huge gain turns into a huge loss in a heartbeat. 3rd and 32 (!).

13:05 - So of course Baltimore decides to run the ball and Ray Rice nearly fumbles. Green Bay gets the ball back with decent field position.

12:30 - And here comes the replay of the Mason interference/unsportsmanlike penalties. There was definitely a hook-and-push around Woodson's waist, and Mason follows up that number with a plea for leniency to the referee. Pretty standard, right? Nah, just kidding, he pretty much shouted in the ref's face, "What the f--- was that, man?" Yeah, that's a flaggin'.

10:31 - Jermichael Finley gets another touchdown after a couple of nice short passes to get within 20 yards. Aaron Rodgers' red-zone stats improve, Jermichael gets the "Mr. Monday Night" nickname, my fantasy team starts to quiver in terror, and the score jumps to 24-14, Packers.

10:21 - Ah, Green Bay special teams, you never cease to disgust me. A massive kick return puts the Ravens deep into Green Bay territory. Then again, how hard is it to juke out Mason Crosby? The goalposts do it to him on a weekly basis.

9:46 - Tramon Williams earns yet another pass interference flag in the end zone. I thought there was a cap to how many times a player could get flagged for the same thing over and over?

/conveniently forgetting the Ahmad Carroll era

9:30 - How? How? How does a cornerback make that play? Tell me how Charles Woodson just stopped McGahee when he had a massive opening to go through? Between that and flustering the Ravens to the point of calling a timeout, I'm pretty sure Charles Woodson should gain an edge for the DPOY award after tonight.

8:47 - Joe Flacco rolls nearly 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, avoids a sack, and tosses it nicely into Tramon Williams hands. Mike Tirico exclaimed "That is terrible!" as the ball was still in the air! I cannot believe Flacco made that throw. Downright Bad Favre-esque. Kudos to Williams for not retreating into the fetal position after all the penalties tonight.

8:38 - Still trying to figure out the last three plays of that Baltimore drive. Tackle for loss, timeout, interception, all from within the 5-yard line. When's the last time Green Bay came up with that kind of stop?

7:12 - Baltimore's defense forces a 3-and-out as the King of Third Down and James Jones miscommunicate on a fly-stop route.

6:48 - Yeah, Joe Flacco's having a bad day. This time he throws it right into the hands of A.J. Hawk, who was quietly having another solid game (which is EXACTLY WHY WE DRAFTED HIM! FOR QUIET, SOLID GAMES!) before this play. Back-to-back interceptions for the Unibrow, and I'm almost sad to see it. Remember, my fantasy team is up 130-24, but I'm playing Rodgers, Finley, and the Packer defense while starting Ray Rice. The offense I can deal with, but this stifling defense is killing me!

6:00 - Ahman Green smashes his way to gain a short first down, and the running out of the clock commences. How much time can they milk from the clock?

2:56 - Turns out they can burn a whole lot of time. Interesting graphic on Green Bay receivers, going from Sharpe to Brooks to Freeman to Driver to Jennings.

2:15 - "Hey Coach Gruden, I found a pair of your old practice shorts." If there's a better setup for a pasty white guy wearing green-and-gold short-shorts in below-freezing weather, I've never seen it.

1:56 - Crosby avoids the shank-osaurus and makes it 27-14, Packers. Solid lead.

1:52 - Gruden brings up the possibility of a Vikings-Packers rematch in the playoffs. I say, don't get ahead of yourself, but the prospect of facing what might be a slowly-fading Favre, a possibly nicked-up Peterson, and a banged-up defense in Minnesota isn't nearly as terrifying as it seems.

0:29 - Fittingly, Clay Matthews chases Flacco down for his second sack of the day. Ted Thompson deserves all the slack in the world for having the stones to trade up for this guy. He could draft Jimmy Clausen next season and I'd still like him.

0:00 - The sack is the last play of the game, and the Packers earn the win, 27-14.

Post-game thoughts:

Not many, again due to my exhaustion. But I will say this: the offense played relatively well, Aaron Rodgers carried the team with his passing. The defense was stifling for much of the game, and Charles Woodson should be the front-runner for DPOY, and even in the conversation for defensive-players-who-deserve-the-MVP-but-won't-get-it-because-they're-not-a-quarterback-or-running-back (if he wasn't already). The playcalling was really well thought out on both sides of the ball, and the execution of many of the plays was awfully impressive.

But two things stand out as glaring negatives. First was the penalties. So many penalties. If Baltimore didn't flag it up more than we did, it would stand out more. Tramon Williams has a lot of talent, but he cannot ~~get caught using~~ use that armbar anymore. It simply costs too much yardage. And Chad Clifton needs to get his business together, because he's smarter than he's playing.

The second thing was the final score. 27-14 seems like a solid win, but with all of the opportunities that the Ravens gave up, it should have been a much wider margin. Playoff teams win games like this soundly, which the Packers did. They should, they're a playoff team. But championship teams beat their opponent senseless when they come up with as many takeaways as they did (4).

All that said, this is Green Bay's fourth straight win after falling to 4-4. You can't ask for a better setup for the final quarter of the season.

And my fantasy team? They hung on for a 137-80 victory, largely because I had actually started Rashard Mendenhall instead of Ray Rice. See what working third shift does to you?

Uninformed Recap: Ravens Beat Steelers in OT, 20-17

Brandon — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The Steelers at Ravens game was a twofer. Here's the boxscore. It had 2 of the Green Bay Packers' next 3 opponents.

In between their games against the Ravens and Steelers, the Packers play the Bears in Chicago. I watched a little of the Bears at Vikings game, but what I did see was ugly (for the Bears). Their defense has looked bad for weeks, and they couldn't do anything to stop the Vikings. 537 yards for the Vikings, and the Bears only had 169. In the 2nd quarter, despite their meager offensive performance, the Bears drove twice into Vikings territory, only to watch QB Jay Cutler throw back-to-back drive killing INTs. And why did they give up their (high) 2nd round pick in 2010 for DE Gaines Adams? He only has 3 tackles in 6 games.

As far as the Steelers at Ravens game goes, my recap is uninformed because I don't know a lot about either team. They both have great defenses, through week 11, according to Football Outsiders, the Steelers had the No. 3 defense and the Ravens' D was No. 4.

The Steelers were able to run straight up the middle, which was where RB Rashard Mendenhall, who had 24 carries for 95 yards (4.0 YPC), went every time he carried the ball. The Ravens D might have lost a step. Just as the Packers have lost Kampman and Harris, the Ravens have lost their top pass rusher, LB Terrell Suggs (torn MCL), and a starting cornerback, Fabian Washington (torn ACL). But the Steelers were forced to start 2nd year QB Dennis Dixon, his first career start, and he was just overmatched. On the Steelers final offensive play, Dixon misread a zone blitz and he threw an INT right at the Ravens' rookie defensive lineman. Overall, Dixon only completed 12 of 26 attempts for 145 yards, but you could tell at times during the game that the Steelers offensive coordinator had lost some faith in him.

The Ravens offense is built around getting the ball to WR Derrick Mason and RB Ray Rice. Though WR Mark Clayton had a big game, 7 catches for 129 yards, that was due in large part to the awful coverage by Steelers CB William Gay. Mason is still a good, Donald Driver type receiver. Rice is an explosive playmaker and he's maybe even more dangerous as a receiver. I don't see how any team can cover him with a linebacker. Despite generating 393 yards of offense, it was boom-or-bust. Most of that yardage came on their 3 scoring drives, while the rest of the time they struggled and were forced to punt 6 times. Their offense isn't any better than the Vikings or Cowboys.

And while the Packers are still No. 1 in most penalty yards allowed per game, the Ravens are a close 2nd. They had 9 penalties for 80 yards against the Steelers, including a killer special teams penalty that erased a huge punt return near the end of regulation. If that return hadn't been called back, the Ravens would likely have kicked a late game winning FG, instead of having to win in OT.

The Packers and Ravens are two comparable teams, and both teams need to keep winning to keep pace for a wild card spot.

Extended Recap: Green Bay Packers Defeat Lions 34-12

Brandon — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 06:20:53 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

Browse more photos »

I was nervous the entire first quarter while watching the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving. The Lions had a quick 7-0 lead, and the Packer offense had already stalled once before they missed a FG attempt. I was wondering if this was going to be like their last loss in Tampa. But once QB Matthew Stafford threw his first INT, and QB Aaron Rodgers completed a 68 yard pass to WR Donald Driver to end the 1st quarter, I wasn't nervous anymore.

The Lions weren't exactly a big test for the Packers, they beat them in most major categories like points, yards (422 to 272), time of possession (33:59 to 26:01), and turnovers recovered (5 to 2). But I'm not a big believer in tests, or teams having to prove something. I believe in wins against any team they play, as they right now control their own destiny for a wild card playoff spot. And also stay healthy, which is something they did a good job of on Thanksgiving.

The complete play-by-play recap is after the jump.

Packers vs Lions coverage; Packers vs Lions recap; Packers vs Lions boxscore; Pride Of Detroit

Play-by-play from NFL.com:

First Quarter

4-J.Hanson kicks 71 yards from DET 30 to GB -1. 87-J.Nelson to GB 21 for 22 yards (75-T.McBride). FUMBLES (75-T.McBride), RECOVERED by DET-57-J.Dizon at GB 20. 57-J.Dizon to GB 20 for no gain (87-J.Nelson).

And they started the game with a thud. The special teams were awful, committing 4 penalties (1 intentional 4th quarter delay of game), and 2 big kick returns could have even been bigger if not for saving tackles by TE Spencer Havner and K Mason Crosby.

(14:23) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-B.Pettigrew pushed ob at GB 6 for 12 yards (50-A.Hawk).

It was interesting that this was their first pass play. The Lions must have seen something they liked because they threw 13 passes to their tight ends, usually out in the flat. None of them were big plays, but Stafford completed 9 of them, so they were just about as successful as anything they did on offense. Unfortunately this was the last one for rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew. He suffered a season ending knee injury on the play.

(13:07) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 81-C.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Instead of taking advantage of the LBs in coverage against the tight end, the Lions decided to force 12 passes to an obviously hurting WR Calvin Johnson. This was their biggest offensive play of the game, and maybe it gave them false hope that Johnson could have a big game. Instead, it just might have made CB Charles Woodson very angry.

(12:16) 25-R.Grant right tackle to GB 32 for 15 yards (41-W.James).

This was a good run in a game with few good runs. RB Ryan Grant should have had a big game against a weak Lions run defense, but instead he had a poor game (only 3.1 yards/carry). Four days earlier, he was great against an excellent 49ers run defense.

(4:43) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

More lousy special teams. As good as this drive was, the Packers were forced to convert four times on 3rd down and they went 3 for 4. It seemed odd since the Packers weren't taking any shots down field against a defense that was torched 4 days earlier. 10 minutes into the game, down 7-0, and I'll admit I was a little nervous.

(1:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-W.Heller INTERCEPTED by 36-N.Collins at GB 26. 36-N.Collins ran ob at GB 26 for no gain.

The Lions were getting a little something going, moving the ball 30 yards after the missed FG, and FS Nick Collins made a great reaction on the ball. Watch the replay.

(:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 80-D.Driver to DET 7 for 68 yards (25-M.White).

What a way to end the quarter. The Packers were still down 7-0 at this point, but after watching them force an INT and 3 plays later attack the awful Lion secondary, it felt like they had turned the corner.

Second Quarter

(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 86-D.Lee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

That was quite a leap by TE Donald Lee. Watch the replay.

(14:26) 34-K.Smith left tackle to DET 34 for 4 yards (36-N.Collins).

There were a few times in the game when RB Kevin Smith got a cutback lane, and it looked like he could bust out for a big gain. But there was always a Packer there to tackle him, and Smith didn't have a single carry for more than 6 yards. Everyone on defense did their part on run defense.

(8:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 88-J.Finley. GB-88-J.Finley was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on DET-26-L.Delmas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 40.

(8:19) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley to DET 16 for 9 yards (25-M.White). PENALTY on DET-25-M.White, Horse Collar, 8 yards, enforced at DET 16.

It was rough going for TE Jermichael Finley on those two consecutive plays. He took one (two) for the team, and set up a 1st and goal, but they settled for a FG.

(5:28) 34-K.Smith up the middle to DET 44 for -4 yards (90-B.Raji).

(4:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 86-D.Northcutt INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Williams at GB 40. 38-T.Williams pushed ob at GB 46 for 6 yards (86-D.Northcutt).

DE B.J. Raji slipped a tackle and got quickly into the backfield. His tackle set up a 3rd and 5, which was then intercepted by CB Tramon Williams. Two great plays in a row.

(1:03) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

Another good drive ends in a FG (or FG miss). They've been settling for a lot of FGs the past two weeks, but overall they're still about average (scoring a TD about 51% of the time in the red zone). It's a bad trend, but it's hard to call it a problem since the offense is playing so well overall.

(:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 48 for -8 yards (52-C.Matthews).

What would you call that sack by LB Clay Matthews? Tenacious? Watch it here.

Third Quarter

(14:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 80-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DET 38. 21-C.Woodson to DET 38 for no gain (80-B.Johnson). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 14:06.)

He had a sack in the 1st half, but the Woodson show got going early in the 2nd half. The 1st of his 2 INTs.

(13:27) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Lee.

Lee had a TD earlier, but he had been dropping some passes in recent games. I'd been wondering if TE Spencer Havner should be playing ahead of him. This play is another drop, and I'm not sure how he'll be going forward.

(12:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at DET 37 for -6 yards (59-J.Peterson). FUMBLES (59-J.Peterson) [59-J.Peterson], RECOVERED by DET-97-J.Hunter at DET 37. 97-J.Hunter to DET 37 for no gain (71-J.Sitton).

LT Chad Clifton left LB Julian Peterson unblocked, while Clifton blocked no one, and it led to the only sack of the game for the Lions on 4th down. Tom Pelissero goes into more detail about why Clifton's decision to leave Peterson unblocked was more complicated then it seemed, and that Rodgers should have gotten rid of the ball quickly since it was an empty backfield and they left no one in to block on a blitz.

(11:06) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Driver to DET 45 for 45 yards (41-W.James).

(9:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver to DET 31 for 7 yards (23-K.Hobbs).

(6:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-K.Hobbs].

A quick 3-and-out by the defense was somewhat wasted after a 51 yard net punt pinned the Packers down at their 10 yard line. But that didn't matter because WR Donald Driver took over. 59 yards alone on the drive, including the TD reception.

(1:31) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones to DET 21 for 4 yards (41-W.James).

(:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-J.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Earlier this season, I was ready to write WR James Jones off. He only had a couple catches, and it seemed like Rodgers would only throw to him if he was wide, wide open. But he's become more involved in the offense (15 receptions in the last 4 games) and has 4 TDs on the season. He might never be good enough to start, but now he's doing well as a No. 3 receiver.

Fourth Quarter

(12:35) 7-J.Kapinos punts 57 yards to DET 11, Center-61-B.Goode. 86-D.Northcutt ran ob at DET 25 for 14 yards (51-B.Poppinga).

A conservative drive, the Packers were trying to kill some clock, ended with the Packers' first punt of the game.

(12:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt to GB 22 for 47 yards (38-T.Williams).

If there was one weak link in the pass defense, it was CB Jarrett Bush. WR Dennis Northcutt got behind Bush, and ran away from him for the big gain. All the comments I've read about Bush are usually hoping he'll be released soon, and he didn't do anything in this game to prove to those fans that he's becoming a better defender.

(10:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 81-C.Johnson [20-A.Bigby]. Ball thrown away.

(10:05) 25-R.Grant right tackle to GB 1 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

(9:22) 25-R.Grant right end to GB -1 for -2 yards (26-L.Delmas). FUMBLES (26-L.Delmas), RECOVERED by DET-57-J.Dizon at GB -1. TOUCHDOWN. Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-R.Grant right end tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (26-L.Delmas).

A big defensive stop on the 1 yard line leads to a collapse by the run blocking. I'm sure everyone blocking on those two running plays will be hearing it from their coaches next week.

(5:05) 4-J.Hanson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.

The drive stalled, but should Detroit have really been settling for a FG? No pass was completed for greater than 13 yards on the drive. They were just daring Stafford to make accurate, short passes. The Packers were going to let them work their way down the field, which was something they hadn't done well all game.

(3:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DET 38. 21-C.Woodson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 82-C.Fitzsimmons to DET 41 for 13 yards (21-C.Woodson). Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 82-C.Fitzsimmons to DET 40 for 12 yards (21-C.Woodson). FUMBLES (21-C.Woodson), RECOVERED by GB-21-C.Woodson at DET 41. Referee blew the ball dead.

Unlike their last game against the 49ers, the Packer offense wasn't able to run out the clock. They give the Lions two more chances, and Woodson forced two turnovers (one returned for a TD).

Brief Recap: Green Bay Packers Defeat Lions 34-12

Brandon — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:20:28 -0000

More photos » by Tony Ding - AP

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The game started out rocky: WR Jordy Nelson fumbled the opening kickoff, and QB Matthew Stafford threw a TD pass to WR Charles Johnson for a quick 7-0 lead.

The rest of the game belonged to the Packers. Stafford attempted 39 passes after his TD pass, but he didn't throw another one (to his own team). He did throw 4 INTs, including a late pick 6 to CB Charles Woodson. Johnson was targeted on 10 more pass attempts, but only had 1 more receptions. Overall, Stafford finished with a 30.5 QB rating and a terrible 4.6 yards/pass attempt. Johnson was slowed by the injuries that kept him out of practice all week, but he also had Woodson following him around for the entire game. Woodson finished the game with 7 tackles, 1 sack, 4 pass defenses, and 2 INTs (including the one he returned for a TD). I don't know if he really wanted whatever that turkey trophy is, FOX decided WR Donald Driver was the player of the game instead, but Woodson deserved. Just an outstanding game by the defense, which only allowed 272 yards of offense, grabbed those 4 INTs, and held Lion backs to only 3.2 yards/carry.

The defense was great, but the offense was very good in it's own right. As I mentioned above, Driver was the player of the game with 142 yards and 1 TD. The offensive line did a great job in pass protection, allowing only 1 sack by LB Julian Peterson after the Lions coverage shut down a 4th down play and QB Aaron Rodgers was trying to scramble. The only negative was that they only managed 3.0 yards per carry, but the Lions seemed to determine to stop the run by keeping their safeties up. Which helped to open up the big plays down the middle to Driver.

The big negative, and the factor that kept the game close in the 1st half, was the lousy Packer special teams. Nelson fumbled the opening kickoff, multiple penalties pushed the Packers back even further on kick returns, and K Mason Crosby missed a 43 yard FG attempt.

Overall a dominant victory to improve the Packers record to 7-4, and Mike McCarthy's record against the Lions to 8-0.

Cooking your way to Fantasy Turkey - Week 12 Fantasy Edition

Andrew Davidson — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

Should the Lions adopt the Goobledygooker as their Thanksgiving Mascot? Yep.(via 4.bp.blogspot.com)

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If there's one thing I've ever been jealous of Americans for, it's their awesome Thanskgiving tradition. The 3 Fs, Football, Family and Food, are something every nation should adopt on the last Thursday in November. The only bad thing about the tradition are the Detroit Lions. There was a time when Barry Sanders ran around on Turkey Day to make things interesting, but the thought of Matthew Stafford carving up the Green Bay Packers like he did the Browns is far fetched (especially considering his injury). At least the afternoon game will be interesting, right?

Not so fast, viewers will be treated with the Oakland Raiders visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Let's give the schedule makers a pat on the back for setting that contest up on Thanksgiving; good luck keeping your pumpkin pie down. At least the night game has promise, that is had promise until the Denver Broncos went on a 4-game losing skid. Denver hosts the New York Giants, who recently snapped their own 4-game slide. The Giants should be able to take care of business, but here's hoping the game is entertaining. Let's take a look from the fantasy side of things, to see who you'll be grateful for come turkey time.

Continue on after the jump to check out the forecasts for this Thanksgiving's games...

Packers @ Lions

Aaron Rodgers - Well it's pretty simple, the Lions have little defense and little chance at stopping Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay QB has a pretty good shot at upstaging Peyton Manning's 6-TD performance in 2004, if he's still in the game after half time. The Lions may be able to sack Rodgers a few times, but seriously what Rodgers fantasy owner hasn't been looking forward to this game since draft day? Turkey Day forecast: 275 pass yards, 4 PaTDs, 0 INTs

Greg Jennings - Thanks to Jennings for breaking out against San Francisco last Sunday, we really do appreciate it. Jennings may be able to match his game totals by the end of the first half in this one, while the Packers are still throwing the ball to get a big lead. If you can name anyone on the Lions that stands a chance at covering Jennings, I'll inform you that you're delirious. Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 100 yards, 2 TDs

Donald Driver - The veteran WR is having an excellent season to date, and while he may not top 100 yards in Detroit, he's certainly worth starting. You can lay down some coin on Driver scoring, because it's all but guaranteed that he'll reach pay dirt. Heck, your lineup wouldn't look too bad if you had Rodgers, Jennings and Driver as your QB, WR1, WR2. Even James Jones might make a good WR3 this week. Week 12 forecast: 7 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Ryan Grant - After the performance against San Francisco, it's hard to even consider putting Grant on the bench for this Thanksgiving Day match-up. You'd seriously have to have MJD and AP to think of benching Grant against the Lions. The Packers should be leading (and by a bunch), so the RB should benefit and receive a healthy amount of carries. Put him in and smile at the results. Week 12 forecast: 125 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 15 yards

Jermichael Finley - Finley returned to the lineup last weekend, and will likely be in the lineup against Detroit. The Green Bay TE managed 7 catches for 54 yards in his return, and will see similar success against the Lions. While he's certainly not going to set the world on fire, he's a good option against a very bad team. Week 12 forecast: 6 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD

Green Bay Team DEF - The Packers defense is finally turning into a well oiled machine, but also has some key players lost for the season. That shouldn't make a difference against the Lions, even though Matt Stafford launched 5 TDs and 422 yards against Cleveland. Calvin Johnson's big performance shouldn't scare you away from the Packers defense either. However, and this is a big however, the Lions may be able to put up some points in comeback mode, which could hurt the value a tad. Week 12 forecast: 20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FR, 1 Def TD

Calvin Johnson - Megatron is Detroit's best chance at getting back into the game if they get down early, and best chance to stay with the Packers if the game is close. His fantasy season has been disappointing thus far, and his injuries have his status in question for this divisional game. It's unlikely he'll play, so keep him out of your lineup. Week 12 forecast: Injured.

Dante Culpepper - Matt Stafford looked very good against Cleveland (as I've said several times already) and Detroit faces a slightly dinged up Packers squad. Stafford suffered a separated shoulder Sunday, and it's unclear whether he'll play at the time I write this. Dante Culpepper will likely get the nod, and I don't think he'll do anything better or worse than Stafford against the Packers. Regardless, it won't be wise to start either unless INTs don't count against you in your fantasy league. Week 12 forecast: Stafford OUT; Culpepper IN (bench both)

Kevin Smith - I'll spare writing out the rest of the Lions "fantasy options" because after Smith, there really aren't any. Where Detroit's RB will benefit is in the receiving game, as the Packers will likely lead and Smith will not receive a lot of carries. On the season, Smith has 33 recepitons for 321 yards and a TD; 104 yards and the TD came last week against the Browns. Smith isn't a great fantasy option, but I wouldn't label him a dud either. Week 12 forecast: 40 rush yards, 0 TDs; 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Oakland @ Dallas

Zach Miller - Miller's presence against Cincinnati helped the Raiders pull off the unthinkable upset. As a result, he's the only viable fantasy option in this game versus the Cowboys. While Bruce Gradkowski is playing well (compared to JaMarcus Russell), there's no Raider worth starting on Turkey Day other than Miller. The Raiders TE is a good fantasy option, and gets his credit where credit is due. Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Tony Romo - The Raiders defense held the Bengals to just 348 total yards (61 of those coming on one run), and Carson Palmer had just 207 pass yards with 1 INT and 0 PaTDs (2 rushing TDs). The Raiders defense certainly isn't a terrible one, and can likely keep Romo in check. It's hard to say "bench Romo", but bench Romo. The Cowboys will win this game in snoozing fashion, running hard and playing solid defense. Week 12 forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

Marion Barber - The Dallas RB hasn't scored since week 8, so expect that streak to come to a hault Thursday. Barber had 20 carries for 99 yards against Washington and more importantly, looked healthy. The Cowboys should grind out a power perfromance in order to beat the Raiders, and Barber will be a big factor in that area. I really like Barber's odds of having 2 TDs, and I really like his chances at topping 100. Week 12 forecast: 110 rush yards, 2 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards

Felix Jones - Jones should prove to be quite a punch in the Dallas RB combo, and is a borderline fantasy start. It's hard to say how well he will do, but his potential is there. He's still got speed (the knee brace is off), and the Raiders will likely be seeing Jones get 10-15 touches. It's hard to recommend starting Jones, and I can almost feel a big game coming. It's your call, but I think "bench him" is the better option. Week 12 forecast: 60 rush yards, 0 TDs; 1 catch, 25 yards

Miles Austin - The Cowboys WR hasn't score a TD in two games, and I'll put money down that says he won't score against the Raiders. Oakland's secondary will be able to keep Austin in check for most of the game, as he nor any of the Dallas WRs are serious fantasy threats in this game. If Jason Witten ends up missing the game, Austin and the rest of Dallas receiving crew's chance go up a bit in terms of fantasy production. Week 12 forecast: 3 catches, 55 yards, 0 TDs

Jason Witten - Now here's a receiving threat you should consider starting. The big TE is looking for some action, and I think he gets plenty against the Raiders. Witten hasn't scored a TD since week 2, but that will come to an end as Romo will find Witten in the red zone for six. UPDATE: Witten is a game-time decision with a foot injury, perhaps Martellus Bennett can be stashed in case of emergency purposes.. Week 12 forecast: 3 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD (if he plays)

Dallas Team DEF - Any time a team is facing Oakland, it's worth considering a spot in your starting lineup for. The Cowboys defense should provide a good pass rush and create a few turnovers in what likely will be a low scoring contest. If it ends up a high scoring affair, it likely won't be on Oakland's side of the billionare's scoreboard. Start the Cowboys unit, because it should give you a reason to actually watch this snooze fest. Week 12 forecast: 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 INTs

New York @ Denver

Brandon Marshall - The Broncos are a team desperately looking to get off a 4-game skid, and Brandon Marshall gives them a good chance at making the Giants game competitive. Marshall was held to just 3 catches for 26 yards against San Diego; the last time Denver's WR was held to just 3 catches in a game, he responded by scoring 4 TDs in the 3 games that followed. Marshall is a good turkey day delight, even if the Broncos get smashed into sweet potato pie. Week 12 forecast: 8 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD

Kyle Orton - Orton replaced Chris Simms in Sunday's loss to the Chargers, and played decent in his return. It's likely that Orton will be starting against the Giants, but it's best to sit him out of this contest. While Marshall is a good option, Orton isn't reliable from a fantasy perspective to start. Week 12 forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

Knowshon Moreno - The Giants have allowed 14 rush TDs on the season, making Moreno an ok option in most leagues. He's a borderline option as a RB2 in 10-12 man leagues, but has better value as a flex in a pinch. New York typically doesn't give up a lot of yards on the ground, ranked 11th in the NFL in rush ypg. Week 12 forecast: 65 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 15 yards

Eli Manning - After a great start to 2009, Manning cooled off during the Giants own four game losing streak. Last week, he heated back up throwing for 384 yards and 3 PaTDs. The Broncos do have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the NFL, but Manning is still worth starting in prime time on Thursday Night. Week 12 forecast: 245 pass yards, 3 PaTDs, 1 INT

Steve Smith - Smith hasn't had 100 yards receiving since week 4, and I expect the Broncos to keep his yardage in check this week. However, keeping Smith out of the end zone may prove to be difficult, and Smith makes a good WR3 play in leagues that have large starting lineups, and a WR2 in PPR leagues. Week 12 forecast: 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD

Mario Manningham - The former Wolverine is fresh off a 126 yard performance against Atlanta. Look for Manningham to have decent yardage total, and a TD. He makes a fairly good start in any size league this week, mainly because of his big play ability (15.4 ypr on the season). Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Hakeem Nicks - While Nicks should find the end zone, I'm not quite sure his yardage is going to warrant a starting position in your lineup. Nicks, like Manningham, has the big play ability (16.9 ypr), but is targetted less often. If you're just looking for a TD, give Nicks the nod. Week 12 forecast: 2 catches, 35 yards, 1 TD

Kevin Boss - With no more TDs to go around, it will be a wise move to leave Boss on the bench this Thursday. The Giants TE has been scoring "like a Boss" the past three weeks, totalling 4 TDs. However, the Denver defense has done quite well defending TEs this season, so bench him. Week 12 forecast: 4 catches, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs has been a fantasy dud for the better part of 2009, and suffered a leg injury against the Falcons. He's likely to play this week, but the Broncos have allowed just 6 rush TDs on the season. I don't think Jacobs is a tremendous option, but he may surprise. I'm still going to request his benching though. Week 12 forecast: 55 rush yards, 0 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards

Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw is still getting his touches despite the broken bone in his foot. He also shed his protective boot in last week's practices leading up to the Falcons game. At this point, Bradshaw is likely to miss the game in Denver, so stash him on your bench.. Week 12 forecast: Injured.

Final Comment

I'm going to take this time to predict the outcomes in each game, giving myself another opportunity to be dead wrong come Turkey Day. I'll take the Packers to handle the Lions, 45-20; The Cowboys to beat the Raiders, 24-10; and the Giants to overcome the Broncos, 27-14. I'll be back on Saturday with the regular edition for Week 12, including the sit/start forecasts. Until then, everyone please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving, and don't trample anyone on Black Friday.

Week 11 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Packers

Florida Danny — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:00:12 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: I totally forgot to mention when I laid out the new schedule last week that I'll be posting a matchup review article every Tuesday. So, basically, my posting schedule will have you getting sick of me in no time. Just wanted to warn you.

Welcome to the first installment of my weekly matchup review articles in 2009. As I said last week, the format of these posts should be familiar to you if you were around last season. If not, the basic idea of this post is to look back at Sunday's (or Thursday's or Monday's) game, and see how the 49ers did in each of the key matchups I identified prior to the game.

Despite what some might think, I'm not an insider at Football Outsiders (FO), so I don't have access to the exact equation for DVOA or any of their other stats. Therefore, in my matchup review, I won't be saying, "Here's what DVOA said going into the game, and here's their actual DVOA for this matchup during the game." Instead, I simply look back at the play-by-play, aggregate the raw numbers for each matchup, consider the specific game situations that might have affected the numbers, and offer a quasi-objective evaluation of the Niners' performance in the matchups.

So, with the aims and methods revealed, it's time to review the matchups.

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE ON 3RD AND LONG

For the moment, I'm going to ignore Team Matchup #1 (i.e., SF OFF's in-season trend vs. GB DEF's in-season trend) because I'll actually be able to give you the DVOA stats on that one once FO posts them this afternoon. So instead, I'll begin with Team Matchup #2. As you'll recall (See here if you don't), my bottom line about Team Matchup #2 was that the 49ers' OFF needed to perform a lot better than expected on 3rd & long because (a) they've sucked at it this season, and (b) GB's DEF has been awesome at it. Specifically, GB's DEF had a mind-blowing 119.3% DVOA advantage going into the game. So how did the Niners do? Based on the play-by-play, below is a table showing the game time, field position, play, and result of every 3rd & long the 49ers' OFF faced on Sunday (successful plays are in bold):

Distance	Yardline	Quarter	Time Left	Score	Type of Play	Direction	Play	Yards
7	SF 19	1	1:43	SF 3 - GB 6	Pass	NA	Smith sacked	-2
7	SF 23	2	11:25	SF 3 - GB 6	Pass	Short Right	Incomplete to Bruce	0
19	SF11	2	8:08	SF 3 - GB 13	Pass	Short Right	Complete to Crabtree	6
9	SF 20	2	2:00	SF 3 - GB 20	Pass	Short Left	Complete to Davis	4
10	GB 36	3	12:12	SF 3 - GB 23	Pass	Short Left	Complete to Hill	8
20	GB 38	3	7:35	SF 3 - GB 23	Pass	Deep Left	Complete to Crabtree	38TD
8	SF 14	3	2:29	SF 10 - GB 23	Pass	Short Right	Incomplete to Davis	0
10	GB 24	4	10:42	SF 10 - GB 30	Pass	Deep Middle	Complete to Davis	24TD

After the jump, I'll discuss why this table means one of two people needs a stern talking-to, and I'll review the rest of the matchups...

Just to remind you, a 3rd-down play is only considered successful if it achieves a 1st down. For this reason, 3rd & long plays tend to be particularly unsuccessful, so the 49ers' 25% success rate isn't actually all that bad. And given that they scored 2 TDs on 3rd & long, I'd say their performance in this matchup was, on the surface, better than expected. However, there are two below-the-suface patterns in the table that help uncover why their success in this matchup didn't end up helping the 49ers actually win the game.

First, you'll notice that both successful plays came in the 2nd half while losing by 20 points. As Mike Singletary hinted at during his Monday press conference, and contrary to Brian "I can't bring myself to say Michael Crabtree didn't drop it, no matter what the video evidence shows" Billick's assertion during the game, it's simply easier to have success on OFF while on the wrong side of a 2nd-half blowout than it is otherwise. Maybe, as Billick pointed out, GB wasn't playing a true prevent DEF at the time, but, I'm sorry, only the very best teams/players maintain high motivation/focus when they have that big of a lead that late in the game (See 2007 Week 8: Patriots 52, Redskins 7). Packer coaches may not have been calling passive defensive formations, but that doesn't mean Packer players weren't playing passive defense. So, given the score and game time when the 2 TDs occurred, I have to discount their impact on the overall evaluation. Therefore, the Niner OFF's grade on 3rd & long goes from something like a C to a D; still better than expected, but not a lot better. And, as I said in the preview, they needed to play a lot better than expected on 3rd & long in order to have a good chance of winning the game.

The second devil in the details is something of a pet peeve for me. Namely, their only 2 successful plays coincided with the only 2 times Alex Smith actually threw a 3rd & long pass beyond the first down marker: all 6 failures were to "short" routes, whereas the 2 successes were to "deep" routes. Now, I'm not going to affix 100% of the blame on Jimmy Raye for this. He could easily be calling 3rd & long plays with medium-to-deep primary receivers, only to have Smith - for whatever reason - check down to shorter secondary receivers when actually executing the play. Only people with access to the play calls, a candid Alex Smith, and the coach's game film -- people otherwise known as members of the 49ers roster and coaching staff - would know exactly on whom the blame lays. Nevertheless, blaming people isn't going to change anything. What matters most is that the 2009 49ers OFF is currently burdened with either (a) an offensive coordinator who has a tendency to call for short routes on 3rd & long, or (b) a QB who has a tendency to throw short passes on 3rd & long. So either one, or both, have to be dealt with going forward. Otherwise, we'll be seeing a lot more of this ineptitude on 3rd & long.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER

Only two words necessary here: Nailed it! OK, one self-aggrandizing statement from me isn't fair to you, so I'll actually go to the trouble of discussing something that honestly requires no more discussion than those two words.

By now, you probably already know the overall 1st quarter stats: 54 rushing yards, 0 passing yards, 1 sack allowed for -2 yards. Here are some more advanced stats for you:

6.5 yards per play including Frank Gore's 42-yard run, 1.7 yards per play omitting Gore's run
2 successful plays from scrimmage, 6 unsuccessful plays
Time of possession: 3 minutes, 37 seconds
Smith's QB rating for the 1st quarter: 39.6

All in all, that's not playing OFF in a way that overcomes your matchup disadvantage. Yeah, you can say that the score was only 6-3 Packers at the end of the 1st quarter, and that Gore's run should mean more than what I'm allowing, but neither of these things overshadows the clear slow-starting trend for the Niner OFF. Neither can overshadow the fact that the 49ers are averaging only 3.6 points per game in the 1st quarter, and have scored 0 points in the 1st quarter - that would be 4 times - more often than they've scored 7 or more - that would be 3 times.

I've said it before and I'll say it until I'm six feet under. Good teams regularly take an early lead on their opponents, and early leads on the road are huge. Of course, you might say, "Well, it's not like the Niners aren't trying to score in the 1st quarter." On the contrary, I'd actually say they are, in fact, not trying as hard as they should be to score in the 1st quarter. Don't believe me? Here is the play selection for the 1st quarter against GB: pass short right, run up the middle, run up the middle, end around, run up the middle, run up the middle, pass short right, pass play but sacked.

Here's the problem, fellow Niner fans. Our beloved team seems to have a game strategy that's in diametric opposition to game theory, statistical research, and Bill Walsh, all of which suggest that passing the ball is more successful than running the ball, and therefore that teams should pass the ball early to get a lead, but then run the ball late to preserve the lead. Want a perfect example of this utterly-obvious, yet often-ignored winning strategy? Look no further than Sunday's opponent.

The Packers threw the ball on 2 of their first 3 plays, and on 10 of their first 17 plays in the 1st quarter; a slight skew towards passing the ball resulted in a 3-point lead at the end of the 1st. Did they start running it to preserve the lead at that point? Quite the opposite: a Patriots-esque 24 of GB's 26 plays from scrimmage in the 2nd quarter were passes, with the 24 passes coming from one 14-consecutive-passes stretch and another 10-consecutive-passes stretch to end the half. What happened? A 3-point lead ballooned to a 20-point lead in a matter of 15 minutes.

So, to recap, 34 of GB's 45 plays in the 1st half were passes (they had 2 running plays to finish the 1st quarter that I didn't mention above), and they ended up with a 20-point lead going into the locker room. Meanwhile, throughout the 2nd quarter, the Niners continued to run up the middle and throw short passes, which led to a 20-point halftime deficit. Hopefully, you get the idea: pass early to take a lead.

Now for the endgame. In the 3rd quarter, 6 of GB's 14 plays were runs; not run-heavy, but definitely less pass-heavy than their 1st half imbalance. And in the 4th quarter, low and behold 9 of the Packers' 15 non-kneel-down plays were runs. Putting these together, GB's play selection during the 2nd half was 52% run, as compared to their 1st-half play selection, which was 76% pass.

I use the Packers as an example, not to distort general evidence by citing an exceptional anecdote, but rather because the anecdote is fresh in our memories and summarily fits the general evidence. The fact of the matter is that, as long as the 49ers come out running the ball up the middle and throwing short passes in the 1st half, they're not going to build the kind of early lead that a running back like Gore and a DEF like theirs are perfectly suited to preserve. Furthermore, as the Packers example shows, a 3-point lead in the 1st quarter does not represent grounds to shift into lead-preserving, run-baby-run mode. Look no further than to their losses against the Vikings, Titans, and Colts to see how much a slim first-half lead is not a lead at all.

My point here is that, rather than starting each game with a series of up-the-middle runs and short passes, the 49ers need to instead pass the ball frequently during the first half, and continue to pass - preferably down the field - until they've built a comfortable lead. Then, holding a comfortable lead in the 2nd half, that's when Gore should become the focal point of the offense. Unfortunately, Jimmy Raye, and I suppose Mike Singletary, seem to think winning means doing the opposite. Unlike the 49ers' problems on 3rd & long, I do blame Raye/Singletary 100% for this one because they're the ones that put in the game plan and author the 15-play script. I'm sorry, but, when the script isn't working, it's time to start editing on the fly. A screenplay with a lot of early action, climaxing in a massive butt-kicking, and ending with an uneventful dénouement is what the studio execs are looking for.

TEAM MATCHUP # 4: SF OFFENSIVE LINE VS. GB DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 ON UP-THE-MIDDLE RUNS

In detailing this disadvantage for the 49ers' OL in their matchup with the Packers' defensive front 7, I cited each unit's Stuffed Rate and Up-The-Middle ALY. So how did the Niners' OL fare on Sunday in these two areas?

Well, in terms of having their runs stopped for zero or negative yardage, SF's OL had 2 such plays on 8 RB carries, for a Stuffed Rate of 25%, which nailed the expected rate right on the nose (Aside: Where's the dude who says stats can't predict anything?). Therefore, on this stat, we'd have to say the OL didn't overcome its disadvantage.

With respect to C/G ALY, the Niners' OL contributed 13 unadjusted line yards on 5 RB carries, good for a magical average of 2.6 unadjusted line yards per carry. Of course, they were going against the 8th-best defensive front 7 in the NFL, so we can kind of adjust this upward in our minds to something around 3.0 to 3.5. Oh wait, that hits the expected number on the nose again (Aside: C'mon, show yourself Mr. Stats Naysayer!). So again, the OL didn't overcome it's disadvantage.

All in all, my overall view on this matchup is that the 49ers' OL didn't overperform they way that they needed to going into the game, but the game played out in such a manner that they really didn't need to overperform in the first place. Indeed, when a team only has 8 RB carries in a game, it's kind of obvious that the run-blocking performance of their OL was not a major factor in the result of that game.

TEAM MATCHUP # 5: SF DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 VS. GB OFFENSIVE LINE ON LEFT-SIDE RUNS

In the preview post, my bottom line for this matchup was that the 49ers had a general advantage when GB runs to the left side of their formation, but especially when they run to the outside left (GB OL ALY = 2.87 yards per RB carry; SF defensive front 7 ALY = 2.71 yards per carry).

In Sunday's game, the defensive front 7's Unadjusted ALY on left-side runs was 2.62 yards overall, and their Unadjusted ALY on GB runs to the outside left was 2.43 yards per RB carry. Given that I'm not privy to FO's opponent adjustments, we just have to wing it here, and say that we probably need to adjust these raw numbers upward just a little because the Packers' OL was near the bottom of the league on such runs going into the game. Doing so leads to the conclusion that the Niners', once again, played about as well as expected in the left-end/left-side run-stopping matchup.

Unfortunately, like the 3rd & long matchup, left-end run-stopping on Sunday was another case of the Niners' devil being in the details. Specifically, GB's two longest RB carries during the game were both on runs to the outside left, and they both came at the most inopportune times. The first was a 26-yard carry by Ryan Grant on his first outside-left run of the game, and the second was a back-breaking 21-yard Grant carry with 2:51 left in the game, which allowed GB to salt away the game for all intents and purposes. So basically, the Niners' defensive front 7 took a favorable matchup, and turned it into a non-trivial contributor to the loss. On this week of Thanksgiving, a good analogy for the Niners performance in this matchup is screwing up the turkey. After 57 minutes in the oven, the 49ers had a beautiful, juicy bird, but those last 3 minutes of cooking time ended up turning it into bad eats, and having their fans reaching for the sweet potato casserole.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. GB PASS DEF

Going into the game, I wanted to see whether the Niners' OFF would be able to "impose its will" in the passing game by getting the ball to Vernon Davis despite GB's prowess when it comes to defending TEs. Of course, just looking at the stat line (12 targets, 9 yards per target, 18 yards per catch, 3 FDs, 1 TD), you'd have to say VD exceeded expectations overall. However, going inside the numbers, you realize that SF's utilization of VD did not resemble "imposing its will" in the slightest. That's because 11 of VD's 12 targets came during the 2nd half. Furthermore, VD did not have a pass thrown his way until there were 2 minutes left in the 1st half. In other words, SF's OFF basically ignored VD for the first 28 minutes of game time.

I'm not going to beat the proverbial dead horse here, but this is not winning football. Not even attempting to get the ball to a player who's #3 among TEs in targets for nearly the entire first half is an epic fail from a strategic standpoint; an epic fail that compounds the OFF's previously described epic fail with respect to 1st-half passing.

The sickening thing is that, once they started throwing the ball to VD in the 2nd half, he was incredibly productive. To me, that's the most frustrating part of watching this OFF. It's like they stubbornly implement their short pass and up-the-middle run game plan until they're (un)comfortably behind in the game, then the light comes on and they play efficient NFL OFF, only to revert back to their Hostlerian game plan to start the following game. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Despite what Mike "aw shucks, I don't know what you're talking about" Singletary might be saying during his Monday press conferences, I have to believe that the coaching staff notices this pattern. It goes without saying that they know more about football than I (or any other sentient Niner fan) do. So the question that needs to be asked is not, "Mike, why don't you use the spread more?" Rather, it's, "Mike, why do you play OFF backwards?" or, "Mike, why does Jimmy Raye only call an NFL-caliber offense when the score forces him to?" I hate to break the news to Mike, but it's not only the players who don't show up for all 60 minutes of the game; it's also the aptly named "offensive" coaching staff. Matt Barrows seems to agree with me on this point.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: DONALD DRIVER VS. SF PASS DEF

I said going into the game that SF's pass DEF needed to either prevent Driver's catches from hurting them in crucial situations or prevent him from catching the ball in the first place. His stat line for the game (8 targets, 5 yards per target, 8 yards per catch, 2 FDs, 0 TDs) suggests they succeeded in limiting the damage. What makes their performance against Driver even better was that none of his targets came on 3rd down or in the red zone. In other words, they played a perfect game when it came to preventing Driver from touching the ball in crucial situations.

Unfortunately, stopping Driver doesn't mean much when you decide not to cover his counterpart, Greg Jennings, in general, but specifically in crucial situations. Overall, Jennings had 7 targets, for 18 yards per target, 25.2 yards per catch, 3 FDs, and 1 TD. That's pretty bad pass DEF from the Niners against an opponent's #1 WR. However, what's worse is that 4 of Jennings' 7 targets came on 3rd down, with these targets resulting in 3 catches for 3 FDs. So, in the end, their perfect performance against Driver was offset by their nearly (im)perfect performance against Jennings.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on their performance during Sunday's game, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Packers:

The OFF didn't overcome their disadvantage on 3rd & long because they didn't actually throw the ball beyond the 1st-down marker until the game was basically out of reach.
Their OFF once again came out of the locker room with a Hostlerian play-calling philosophy during the 1st quarter.
When it actually mattered, the defensive front 7 failed to exploit their advantage on GB runs to the outside left.
The OFF didn't throw the ball to their high-target TE during the first 28 minutes of the game.
Their pass DEF offset a highly efficient performance against Driver with a highly inefficient performance against Jennings.

Coming up tomorrow, an evaluation of how the Niners played against the Packers according to Singletary's Formula for Success.

*DVOA and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following matchup performances was the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT reason for the 49ers' loss to the Packers on Sunday?

Offensive inefficiency on 3rd & long when the game wasn't a blowout

38 votes

Offensive inefficiency in the 1st quarter

123 votes

Defensive inefficiency on runs to GB's left when the game wasn't a blowout

41 votes

Failing to "impose its will" with VD until the game was a blowout

21 votes

Failing against Jennings while succeeding against Driver

11 votes

234 votes | Poll has closed

49ers-Packers: The World According to Madden

Ninjames — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:00:12 -0000

Aaaand, I'm back on for the Saturday Simulation of the Sunday games. Fooch sent me an email and my replacement er... needed a replacement, so you're back to reading my colorful commentary! Basically I put in Madden NFL 10 for the Xbox 360 and set it to All-Madden and spectate a game in its entirety and provide commentary. Now, Madden isn't a perfect simulation, but it is a step up from past installments and this is just an interesting take on things as opposed to a raw simulation.

The latest roster update for the game actually occurred either late last night or early this morning and I've got it. I took the liberty of moving a few players out of the lineup and switched around some of the depth to make it more accurate. For instance Nate Clements was still in the lineup, now he's off the depth chart. The WRs were a bit out of order but after #1 and #2 it's hard to distinguish who goes where anyway. Currently I have Isaac Bruce at #3 and Jason Hill at #4. Arnaz Battle will likely only see the field on returns.

Before I begin let me just express my gratitude to the folks who do the roster updates, the big guy Aubrayo Franklin got his second boost in as many updates! When Madden NFL 10 shipped Aubrayo Franklin was rated a measly 66 overall, the lowest starting NT in the game. An average starter is around 76-78. With the update a few weeks ago Franklin got some recognition and went up to 79, and much to my (awesome) surprise when I got on today Franklin was updated all the way to 88! Lets see how he performs...

49ers First Drive The Niners win the toss and elect to receive. Robinson takes it and downs the ball for a touchback. Alex Smith leads the 49ers out to the 20-yard line. It's a handoff to the right side and Frank Gore takes it with superb blocking 12 yards before being taken down. 1st and 10 and the team lines up in I formation. Gore takes another handoff and looks to be good for another ten yards but FB Moran Norris misses a block and Frank is dragged down after five yards bringing up 2nd and 5. From the offset I formation Vernon Davis motions to the right side and it's another handoff to Frank Gore... nope, it's a play action pass as Smith avoids a sack and delivers a high ball to WR Michael Crabtree who goes up and snags it between two defenders and gets a couple YAC. After the 30-yard gain the 49ers set up 1st and 10at the Packers 33 yard line.

The next play is a run to the left side but Gore is hit in the backfield for a one yard loss. On 2nd and 11 Vernon Davis motions out wide and Smith takes the snap. After about six seconds the coverage refuses to break down and Smith takes off running before getting hit and fumbling the ball! It's a pile and it takes a good ten seconds for everyone to get up to reveal Frank Gore at the bottom with the ball. The 49ers maintain possession which takes us to 3rd and 11. From the shotgun Smith takes the snap, stands in the midst of pressure and delivers a promising strike to WR Isaac Bruce .The ball is thrown perfectly and goes right into Bruce's hands... and right out of them. Incomplete pass, which brings on the 49ers field goal unit on the Packers 34 yard line. Kicking with the wind, Joe Nedney belts the 51-yard field goal and the Niners are up 3-0.

Packers First Drive Joe Nedney kicks off and the ball is taken in the end zone by Packers WR Jordy Nelson who gets it to the 28-yard line before being brought down by Marcus Hudson. Aaron Rodgers takes the Packers first snap and stands in the pocket, the 49ers get instant pressure but Rodgers still manages to find WR Greg Jennings who turns a 13-yard reception into a 19-yard gain bringing up a Packers 1st down. From 1st and 10 HB Ryan Grant takes the handoff to the right side and gets hammered in the backfield by LB Patrick Willis for a two yard loss. From second down, Rodgers hits WR Donald Driver on a quick inside slant for 15 yards and a Packers first down.

Once again on first down the Packers handoff to Ryan Grant who is hit first by Patrick Willis on the right side before being put on his back by LB Manny Lawson for a 3-yard loss bringing up 2nd and 13. At this point the 49ers secondary needs to make some adjustments. This play is another run, a HB draw which at first looks to be succesful before Justin Smith snags ahold of Grant and Takeo Spikes lays him out with a big hit after being wrapped up. With the 2-yard gain the Packers get to 3rd and 11.

Rodgers takes the 3rd down snap and hits TE Jermichael Finley on the inside slant. It is an 8-yard gain as he is tackled immediately bringing on the Packers field goal unit. They nail it, 51 yards the same as the 49ers and the game is tied at 3-3.

Next Possession The Packers kick off and once again HB Michael Robinson kneels for a touchback. From the offset I formation Vernon Davis motions to the right side and the Packers adjust their coverage, from the get-go it's clear the 49ers are running it and the Pack' throws extra men to Vernon's side knowing his blocking skills, but the 49ers run a misdirection and Frank Gore takes off to the left side, breaking tackles from both Collins and Harris he runs down the sideline 30-yards before being brought down from a good angle at the 50-yard line setting up a 49ers 1st down.

On the next play the 49ers go singleback with four wide receivers out on the field. Crabtree and Hill on the right side with Bruce and Morgan on the left, Alex Smith takes the snap. It's a pitch to Gore on the right side! Hill and Crabtree have already taken a few defenders with them to the left side of the field and Gore runs east and west for a few seconds to give... what?! RG Chilo Rachal time to run out and make a crushing block in space on a Packers defender at which point 21 turns upfield and looks to be gone before Atari Bigby makes an ankle tackle after 11-yards. The 49ers set up at the Packers 39-yard line.

Off of first down Alex Smith hits TE Vernon Davis in stride over the middle who takes off upfield on the left side being chased by two defenders. Once again the angle prevails and the Packers force him out of bounds. Davis took a 5-yard reception and turned it into a 24-yard gain. 1st and 10 at the Packers 14-yard line. The 49ers handoff to Gore on first down who pushes a pile of tacklers four yards bringing up 2nd and 6. The next play is a two yard run by HB Glen Coffee to the right side for some reason. 3rd and 4 to go now. From a two tight end set HB Michael Robinson is out on the field. Alex Smith takes the snap and has plenty of time. Vernon Davis is causing havoc in the end zone and Delanie Walker is blocking fiercly. WR Michael Crabtree is open for a split second and that causes the Packers SS to panic and strafe in that direction leaving... HB Michael Robinson open near the first down marker, whom Alex Smith promptly hits and leads out of bounds at the 4-yard line for a 1st and goal!

QB Alex Smith takes the snap and Frank Gore stays in and picks up a defensive end blitz. Smith has just enough time to find TE Vernon Davis between three defenders in the end zone for a 4-yard touchdown pass. The extra point is good and the 49ers lead the Packers 10-3.

Next (Packers) Possession The ball is downed in the end zone after the kickoff and the Packers set up at their own 20-yard line. Rodgers takes the snap from the shotgun and once again makes use of the inside slant, this time hitting WR James Jones for 13-yards before getting a yard and tackled by CB Tarell Brown. 1st and 10 and Rodgers hands off the Ryan Grant from the I formation, who picks up three yards before being tackled by LB Takeo Spikes. The next play is a run to the left after motion goes that way, and Grant picks up one yard before being smothered by Justin Smith.

The next two plays are passes to WR Jones who gets the first down on the first pass on the right sideline with nobody around, and the second is a two yard gain before getting hit very hard by CB Shawntae Spencer. The Packers set up with 2nd and 8. With six seconds left in the quarter Rodgers takes the snap before his line completely crumbles and LE Isaac Sopoaga breaks through and gets the first sack of the game. Rodgers fumbles the ball, but it is picked up by the lineman Tauscher. At the end of the first quarter the 49ers lead 10-3.

2nd Quarter

Starting the quarter at 3rd and 9 Rodgers takes the snap out of the shotgun. As soon as the play starts I know they're going to pick up the first even before he throws the ball to Nelson for an 11-yard pickup over the middle. Ryan Grant gets his biggest run of the day on first down as he turns his total rushing yards of the game into seven with a 6-yard pickup to the left side. Grant then takes the ball up to the right inside of the line and looks to be just short of the first down. The chain gang comes out to measure and the Packers are about two feet away from the first down, bringing up 3rd and 1. Off of the play action, Rodgers makes short work of the 49ers secondary by, what do you know, a 13-yard gain on an inside slant to Donald Driver bringing up a 1st and 10. Make that 1st and goal after a ten yard reception by James Jones and the Packers are threatening to score.

Demetric Evans makes the stop on the first down run to Ryan Grant which goes nowhere. Off of the play action the Packers hit FB Kuhn on the flat who is immediately hit by CB Tarell Brown... who apparently forgets how to tackle and lets the FB score on a 4-yard touchdown. The Packers get the extra point and the game is tied again at 10-10.

Next Possession Michael Robinson takes this kick from the back of the end zone and gets to the 21-yard line before going down after not trying too hard to avoid a tackle. Alex Smith leads the offense out there once again and hands the ball off to Frank Gore who gets two yards on the right side on the run blitz. From the shotgun Smith hits Isaac Bruce for a couple of yards but the play is called back after Frank Gore is called for holding. The Niners now face 2nd and 18. Smith takes the snap and drops back, the protection is good but starts to break down, Smith steps up in the pocket and the line adjusts and keeps him protected. Smith has a man downfied and throws a bomb before getting hit hard. The ball travels about 50 yards through the air and is brought in by WR Isaac Bruce! Bruce didn't have his defender beat, he just had better hands. The Niners set up with 1st and 10 from the Packers 33 yard line.

The next play Alex Smith takes the snap and stares down a receiver. He looks good, and then remembers that he's Alex Smith and decided to pretty much throw a shovel pass right into the hands of Packers defensive lineman Johnny Jolly who gets the interception and goes down instantly. Amazing.

After The Turnover... From their own 36 yard line the Packers set up shop. Rodger takes the snap and throws a short pass to Lee for a 3-yard gain. The next pass is to James Jones for a five yard gain before being brought down by CB Shawntae Spencer. On the next play Ryan Grant picks up the first down on a four yard run. Rodgers calls an audible on the next play and yet another tackle is missed after FB Kuhn once again catches the ball. Dashon Goldson wraps up air and Manny Lawson is forced to drag him down from behind after the FB picks up 20 yards.

On the first down pass Driver gets 10 yards and another first down. After a short pass the Packers get 2nd down. On the next play Aaron Rodgers throws a pass right to S Dashon Goldson in the end zone who drops the pick! 3rd down with 8 to go. Lee once again gets a reception off the slant and the chain gang has to come and measure but the Packers get the 1st. Another 10-yard gain and the Packers get ANOTHER first down off the slant. 1st and goal.

Kentwan Balmer stuffs Ryan Grant for no gain on 1st down. On second down Rodgers throws to Driver in the end zone but he can't stay in bounds. On third and two it's FB Kuhn once again off the play fake in the flat... for a touchdown. Packers lead 17-10 with 2:25 to go in the half.

Next Possession The kick goes through the end zone and the 49ers set up at their own 20 yard line. Off the play action to Gore, Smith passes to the very same, Gore for 9-yards over the middle. After the two minute warning it's Isaac Bruce over the middle for a gain. Alex Smith from 1st down tucks it,, runs, and slides down... for a loss of one. 2nd and 11 with 1:40 to go. The next pass is incomplete and doesn't even go near a wide receiver. Alex was virtually unpressured on the play. 3rd down and 11 to go. On the next play it's WR Michael Crabtree between two receivers who gets the first down and more, taking it to the Packers 46-yard line before being tackled. The 1st down pass is complete, but for no gain as Frank Gore goes out of bounds. 1:11 to go in the game on 2nd down and it's... a false start on TE Vernon Davis. 2nd and 15 not from their own 49-yard line. On a big five step drop Alex Smith steps up into the pocket and delivers a huge strike through the air over the middle. He's got WR Jason Hill deep who is being covered by a linebacker, Clay Matthews. Jason Hill catches the pass in stride and runs in for the 51-yard touchdown. The extra point ties the game at 17-17.

Next Possession Joe Nedney kicks off and Jackson runs it out of the end zone and is tackled at the 21-yard line. With 58 seconds left and all three timeouts the Packers offense comes out to the field. Looking for some YAC, the Packers throw a short pass to Lee but he is brought down immediately by Patrick Willis. They let the clock roll down as they are going to receive at the half, but have to get another play in without a kneeldown. From the shotgun, Rodgers takes the snap with 12 seconds left and hits WR Greg Jennings for ten yards.. and then the Packers take a timeout? McCarthy doesn't seem to understand the concept of running out the clock but whatever, with five seconds to go Rodgers takes the snap and throws another pass to Lee, which is picked off by Patrick Willis who is brought down immediately to end the half.

HALFTIME Aaron Rodgers is playing great football, he didn't miss a pass in the first quarter and only threw three incompletions in the entire first half. Alex Smith posted a better QB rating though with more yards on less completions. They both has a 2:1 TD to INT ratio with Rodgers last second pick. The Packers, as I figured, have yet to get a running game going. Missed tackles are a huge problem for the 49ers so far with a FB shredding them like it's no problem and getting 2 TD to boot. The Packers are 6-7 on 3rd downs, almost all of them being converted on the inside slant. The 49ers will kick off to start the half.

2nd Half

3rd Quarter With another touchback the Packers again set up at the 20-yard line. Ryan Grant takes a handoff to the left side with a four yard run, followed by another of the same gain. On the inside slant... you guessed it, Lee picks up the first down, followed by ANOTHER first down to Donald Driver off of... an inside slant. Christ almighty the 49ers can't do anything against that pass. 1st and 10 at the 49ers 48 yard line. Or can they? Rodgers steps back and almost lazily throws a strike to James Jones over the middle. Patrick Willis looked to be dropping to the right side but had his eyes on Rodgers the whole time and steps up nicely in front of Jones for his second interception of the game. Rodgers saw Spikes initially on Jones and thought he'd be fine.

After The Turnover... The Niners are at their own 47-yard line. On the right side Frank Gore picks up six yards on the outside. The 49ers give up their first sack of the game on second down to Aaron Kampman. On 3rd and 10 Smith drops back, has plenty of time but the coverage refuses to break down. He is brought down from behind on what is technically a 1-yard gain and the 49ers set up to punt.

After The Punt It goes through the endzone for a touchback and the Packers handoff to Ryan Grant, who gets hit for a one yard loss by Justin Smith. The next play is a screen to Grant but he is blown up by S Dashon Goldson for a three yard loss. From their own 16-yard line the Packers go from 3rd and 14. From the shotgun, Rodgers forces a throw to WR Donald Driver but CB Shawntae Spencer jumps the route and snatches the high pass out of the air for the 49ers third interception of the game.

After The Turnover... With excellent field position Alex Smith fakes to Frank Gore to the left side before turning and hitting WR Michael Crabtree on the inside slant, who proceeds to break a tackle and get a few extra yards before being brought down at 1st and goal after gaining 23 yards. From 1st and goal the Packers stack the line and Smith is hit as he throws and it falls incomplete. 2nd and goal from the 4 yard line and it's another fake to Gore. Smith stands with pressure in his face and throws high to TE Vernon Davis who snags it in his huge hands for his second touchdown of the game. The extra point is good and the 49ers lead 24-17.

Next Possession Nelson returns the kick to the 22-yard line. Ryan Grant gets four yards on the left side run and then loses a yard on an even wider left side run bringing up 3rd and 7. On the third down pass Jennings catches an inside slant but is cracked hard by Patrick Willis and drops it, making it incomplete. The Packers line up to punt. Brandon Jones gets about eight yards on the return.

After The Punt From the 41 yard line Smith drops back to pass and throws a pass right to a Packers defender, but he drops it and it falls incomplete. On the run to the right side Frank Gore is hit in the backfield and breaks two tackles. What should have been a five yard loss ends up being a 2-yard loss, but a loss nonetheless. Gore make up for it after catching a pass over the middle and converting the 3rd down. On third, Alex Smith rolls out and panics--he clearly has at least one receiver open but he caves and tucks the ball for a 9 yard sack from two Packers defenders. The 49ers exchange punts.

After Yet Another Punt The punt again goes through the end zone and Aaron Rodgers handsoff at the 20 yard line, but holding is called and the Packers line up at the 11. Greg Jennings catches on two 49ers defenders and picks up the 1st down and nothing more. Grant breaks a few tackles on the next handoff and gets six yards. Michael Lewis almost picks off a pass and the Packers get 3rd and 4. Rodgers is pressured badly on the next play and throws a deep incompletion. The Packers again punt.The 49ers line up to block it and almost get there. Jones muffs the punt but picks it up and gets to the 27-yard line,

Punts Punts Punts The first play is a 5-yard completion to Isaac Bruce and closes out the third quarter.

4th Quarter Alex Smith is sacked on the first play of the quarter by Williams, bringing up a 3rd and 11. It's a handoff to Gore for some reason and it looses one yard. The 49ers punt. Nelson gets it to the 30-yarrd line.

OMG STOP PUNTING IT I'M BORED Ok, not really, I hope the Packers have to punt here but after the first play, an inside slant for nine and a half yards I'm getting worried. Grant gets the carry up the right side and the chain gang confirms the first down. I think it was a generous spot. Grant then gets his biggest carry of the game, nine yards on the right side. 2nd and 1. Rodgers then hits Jones over the middle bringing up another first down.

Spencer almost picks off this next ball, but it's incomplete. Rodgers is hit hard by Manny Lawson but his pass is caught on the ground by Donald Driver... for a four yard loss. Manny Lawson comes back on the next play on third down and gets his first sack of the game for a loss of six. Packers punt, the wind catches it and it goes out at the 28-yard line.

Scared Me A Bit There, Next Possession Alex Smith has great protection but the receivers can't get any seperation, he tucks it, runs and slides for five yards. The next pass is incomplete, and the third is... picked off by defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, who goes a couple yards before fumbling it but the Packers fall on it.

After The Turnover... The Packers have good field position and off a fake to Grant complete a pass to James Jones to bring up first and goal which is followed by a touchdown pass to WR Nelson. The extra point is good and the Packers tie it again 24-24.

Next Possession Robinson takes the ball out of the endzone to the 24-yard line. The 49ers offense goes out on the field with 6:42 left in the game. The fist pass is a 19-yard completion to Vernon Davis over the middle, followed by Josh Morgans first catch of the game for 11 yards. On the next first down Alex Smith throws a high pass to WR Michael Crabtree for another first down. The Niners are putting together an impressive drive.

Frank Gore breaks by my count four tackles before being brought down after a two yard run to the left side on first down. TE Delanie Walker gets his first reception, for 9 yards and a first down. From 1st and 10 Alex Smith takes the snap and throws a perfect pass right into the hands of WR Michael Crabtree who picks up his first touchdown on the season. It is a 21-yard TD. The extra point is good and the 49ers lead again 31-24.

Next Possession Jackson gets the ball to the 29-yard line on the kickoff. The Packers go out with 3:52. They pick up nine yards on the first down pass but Rodgers goes down to a sack on the second down pass play by Aubrayo Franklin. 3rd and 9 with 2:50 left in the game. Rodgers is under pressure and gets hit before checking down to Donald Driver who loses five yards on the pass. At 4th and 13 the Packers have no choice but to punt, trusting in their defense. Jones breaks a tackle and gets the ball to the 46-yard line.

After The Punt Frank Gore picks up seven yards on the first down run to bring up the 2-minute warning. FB Moran Norris gets the call on the next play and gets two yards. On third down Frank Gore goes up the middle and picks up the first down just barely. The Packers spend a timeout. Gore picks up three yards and the Packers spend another timeout. Gore breaks a tackle on his way to another first down and the Packers are defeated. WIth 1:30 left the 49ers take a knee and then lineup for another. At 45 seconds it's a run from frank gore and then a kneeldown on third down. The 49ers win 31-24.

Final Score - San Francisco 49ers 31, Green Bay Packers 24

49ers		Packers
403	Total Offense	299
102	Rushing	45
301	Passing	254
2 (+1)	Turnovers	3 (-1)
4-10 (40%)	3rd Down Conv.	7-13 (53%)
2-15	Penalties	1-10
18:58	Posession Time	13:02

QB Alex Smith 19/26 323 YDS 73%, 4TD, 2 INT, 122.3

QB Aaron Rodgers 30/39 269 YDS 76%, 3TD, 3 INT, 88.5

HB Frank Gore 18 carries, 99 YDS, 5.5 AVG

HB Ryan Grant 19 carries, 45 YDS, 2.4 AVG

WR Michael Crabtree 5 REC, 106 YDS, 21.2 AVG, 1 TD

TE Vernon Davis 4 REC, 50 RDS, 12.5 AVG, 2 TD

WR James Jones 7 REC, 79 YDS, 11.2 AVG

LB Patrick Willis 7 TKL, 1 TFL, 2 INT

DT Aubrayo Franklin 1 SACK, 1 TFL, 3 TKL

LB Aaron Kampman 3 TKL, 1.5 SACK

Player Of The Game Near the end of the game Madden picked LB Patrick Willis as the player of the game. Willis was consistently pressuring when not in coverage and had two picks and one tackle for loss as well as having 7 solo tackles and being in on another. Willis also forced two incompletions out of the hands of WR Donald Driver.

Post Game This game was a slugfest, it was high scoring but still managed to be a strong defensive matchup. The 49ers played like the 49ers and the Packers played like the Packers, which is always a good thing. Not saying this is how it will go exactly on Sunday but some players who I figured would play well played well. The 49ers played strong run defense but gave up a whole lot of first downs. Rodgers stood in the pocket, only rolling out once or twice and the 49ers defensive line played a great game. Crabtree had a breakout game and Vernon Davis showed why he is a huge endzone threat, both literally and figuratively. I said it'd be high scoring before, and it was to a decent degree. I hope you've enjoyed this sim and as always, GO 49ERS!

Week 11 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Packers

Florida Danny — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:00:16 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry about this being a day late. Work was a bear yesterday. Look on the bright side. What you read here will be even fresher in your mind when you watch the game tomorrow.

For those of you who were on Niners Nation last season, you'll find this post - and the weekly ones that follow - very familiar. For those of you who weren't, this weekly matchup post was my main contribution to the site in 2008 (if you're a nerd and/or troll and/or stalker, you can find the archived 2008 articles here). Basically, the way it works is that each week I look at how the 49ers's strengths and weaknesses compare to their oppenents' strengths and weaknesses. However, unlike the more subjective key-matchups-style posts you see around the internet and on TV, my matchup analyses are strictly from an objective, statistical perspective (shocking, I know!)

The purpose of these matchup posts isn't so much to predict the game outcomes as much as it is to focus your attention during each game on a select group of important, although likely overlooked, situations. For instance, I bet that in almost no game previews will you be reading or hearing about how the 49ers' OL is ranked 29th when blocking in the OFF's favorite run direction (i.e., up the middle), whereas the Packers' DL is ranked 8th when defending such runs. Obviously, that's kind of important to know when you consider the 49ers run the ball up the middle 73% of the time! Think that matchup is going to have an impact on the game? Um...duh!

Now, obviously, I can't present every single matchup for which DVOA ratings exist. You think my other posts are dissertations? If I were to present every DVOA matchup possible, this post would be more like War and Peace than a dissertation. Therefore, I have to pare down the matchups to include only those that I think are most important.

How do I do that? Well, basically, I'm of the view that the primary goals of every team in every game are to (a) do what they're good at, and (b) prevent their opponent from doing what their opponent is good at. Mike Singletary calls this "imposing your will" on the opponent, and it's something that, from my sport psychology background, I whole-heartedly believe. So, to me, the key matchups are the ones that involve each team's strengths, and the most important matchups of all involve situations in which one team's strengths are matched up against their opponents' weaknesses. These strength vs. weakness matchups are the ones I'll be presenting in this post, and the ones that will follow for the remainder of the season.

After the jump, it's the key matchups, and I don't mean the "Key Matchups," i.e., how VD's pocket square "matches up" with his fuchsia socks...

TEAM MATCHUP # 1: GENERAL TEAM TRENDS

One good thing to look at before every game is how each team has been playing lately. As this relates to the 49ers and Packers, the trajectories of their respective seasons have actually been quite similar. There's one matchup, however, in which the two teams are going in opposite directions. Here's a chart showing the game-by-game DVOA trend for two units that will be opposing each other on the field this Sunday:

FYI...the Niners' OFF DVOA trend uses the left axis, while the Packers' DEF DVOA trend uses the right axis. As you can see from the chart, the GB DEF is currently getting more efficient, whereas the SF OFF is getting less efficient. Obviously, this is really just showing that the Niners' OFF couldn't do diddly against CHI's DEF in Week 10, whereas the Packers' DEF shut down a potent DAL offense. Still, it's not a trivial matter. GB's DEF will likely come down to earth somewhat, but they'd have to crash with a serious thud for that decline to have a meaningful impact on the SF OFF, which has a long way to dig out of its own grave.

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE ON 3RD AND LONG

There's no doubt that teams don't want to get themselves in 3rd-and-long situations when they're on OFF. However, the hope is that, if they are in such situations, they either (a) are actually pretty good at converting the 1st down, or (b) find themselves playing against a DEF that sucks on 3rd and long.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, their 3rd-and-long matchup with the Packers looks pretty hopeless on both accounts. In terms of whether the 49ers's OFF is good on 3rd and long, they're not: they rank 28th in the NFL with a DVOA of -58.2%. In terms of whether the Packers' DEF is bad on 3rd and long, they're not: they rank 4th, with a DVOA of -61.1%.

The underlying problem for the 49ers in their 3rd-and-long matchup this week is that 3rd and long is a passing-heavy situation, and 3rd-down passing doesn't present a favorable matchup either. Specifically, SF has the 25th-ranked 3rd-Down Pass OFF DVOA (-11.3%), whereas GB has the 2nd-best 3rd-Down Pass DEF DVOA (-38.5%). So, the moral of the story here is that, when you're watching the game on Sunday, pay attention to how often the Niners' OFF ends up in 3rd and long. Not often = good. Often = bad.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER

As I've been pointing out all season, the Niners' OFF is not a good unit coming out of the locker room. Whether due to an inept game plan, a lack of motivation, or still thinking about who won the pregame fashion contest (probably VD), the SF OFF can't seem to get an early lead on the competition. In some games (e.g., vs. STL), this doesn't end up hurting them; but in others (e.g., @ HOU), it puts them in an insurmountable hole.

If they were to pick a week to finally play well in the 1st quarter, let's hope this week is it because their matchup with the Packers is - to put it kindly - a tad unfavorable. Specifically, the 49ers' 1st-Quarter OFF DVOA is an atrocious -43.7%, which ranks them 30th in the league. In contrast, the Packers' 1st-Quarter DEF DVOA is a stout -17.2%, good for 5th-best in the NFL. So, when you watch the game on Sunday, pay attention to how the Niners' OFF fares in the 1st quarter. Good = great; OK = good; Bad = click below:

(hat-tip: 49er16)

TEAM MATCHUP # 4: SF OFFENSIVE LINE VS. GB DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 ON UP-THE-MIDDLE RUNS

By now, you're well aware that the Niners' OL sucks. However, as it relates to the GB game, it's not so much that they suck as it is the particular situations and run directions in which they suck. That's because, although their overall matchup against GB's defensive front 7 is unfavorable, the devil is actually in the details. Here's a chart showing stats for the two areas in which the 49ers must overcome their disadvantage to have any kind of shot at looking like an NFL offense this weekend (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Unit	Stuffed %	Rank	C/G ALY	Rank
SF OL	25%	31	3.25	29
GB DL	26%	3	3.60	8

As you'll recall, Stuffed % tells you how often a team's running plays end up with 0 yards or fewer. Therefore, the table shows that Niner RBs end up with zero or negative yardage on 25% of their carries, whereas the Packers' defensive front 7 stops opposing RBs for zero or negative yards on 26% of their carries. You think you've seen a lot of 49er runs for no gain this season? Just wait until Sunday. The SF OL must overcome this disadvantage in order to run the ball well this weekend.

What makes the OL's matchup a double-whammy is that all of those 0-yard runs we've seen this season have been of the up-the-middle variety, which is exactly the run direction in which (a) the 49ers' OFF is a frequent visitor, and (b) the Packers' DEF considers a no trespassing zone. Indeed, an unbelievable 73% of Niner running plays go up the middle, which ties them with the Jaguars for #1 in the NFL. And the next-highest frequency? That would be the offensive juggernaut known as the Cleveland Browns (69%). After the Big 3, only 2 other teams even reach the 60% threshold when it comes to being stuck in the middle (Patriots = 62% & Buccaneers = 61%).

So I think my point here is pretty clear. The Niners' OFF loves running the ball up the middle even though they suck at it, which leads to a lot of carries for zero or negative yardage. Meanwhile, the Packers' defensive front 7 is great at stopping runs up the middle and preventing the RB from getting back to the line of scrimmage. This is not a good combination for Jimmy Raye's run offense philosophy; nor is it a good combination for the OL's (lack of) blocking prowess.

TEAM MATCHUP # 5: SF DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 VS. GB OFFENSIVE LINE ON LEFT-SIDE RUNS

Up until now, all of the strength vs. weakness matchups have been unfavorable to the 49ers. So, here's a favorable matchup to lift your spirits.

It turns out that the GB OFF runs the ball a lot to the outside left side of their formation. It also turns out, thankfully, that the Packers' OL sucks at blocking on runs to the outside left and the 49ers' defensive front 7 is great at stopping such runs. Specifically, GB's OL has a 30th-ranked 2.71-ypc ALY blocking to the outside left, while SF's defensive front 7 has an ALY in that direction that's ranked 6th in the NFL (2.87 ypc).

Of course, it's a little more difficult for a defensive front 7 to "impose its will" in a specific direction. It's not like (a) the Packers are unaware that SF stops left-end runs really well; or (b) the 49ers can force the Packers - in any meaningfuly way - to run towards left end. Nevertheless, the fact of the matter is that GB has run the ball frequently in that direction during their first 9 games. If you're still not satisfied, though, it's also important to point out that the matchup is pretty much the same on GB runs behind LT. Specifically, GB runs the ball 15% of the time - actually 1 of the 10 highest frequencies in the NFL - in that direction, GB's OL doesn't block well in that direction (LE ALY = 3.44 ypc, 23rd), and SF's defensive front 7 stops runs really well in that direction (LE ALY = 3.48 ypc, 6th).

So, it really seems like the Niners' defensive front 7 has an advantage when GB runs to the left side of the formation. Let's hope they choose to run there as often as they have in their previous 9 games.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. GB PASS DEF

As most of you probably know, VD is ranked 3rd among TEs in targets: Dallas Clark has been targeted by Peyton Manning 78 times, Antonio Gates has been targeted by Philip Rivers 72 times, and VD has been targeted by "SF QB" 71 times. So getting VD the ball is kind of important for the Niners' OFF. The only problem is that, according to DVOA, the Packers' DEF is the 3rd-best unit at stopping TEs. Therefore, it'll be interesting to see how well the Niners' OFF can "impose its will" on GB's DEF by getting VD the ball in crucial game situations.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: DONALD DRIVER VS. SF PASS DEF

Although Greg Jennings is technically GB's #1 WR, Donald Driver has actually been the better option this season -- much to my fantasy team's dismay. Driver's DVOA of 23.7% ranks him 13th among WRs, whereas Jennings' -0.6% DVOA ranks him 38th. Because DVOA is a measure of efficiency, and because Driver and Jennings get thrown the ball equally frequently (Driver targets = 65; Jennings targets = 68), Driver is more dangerous for the 49ers because his targets and catches have been more productive in crucial game situations. With that said, SF might just be the team to slow him down: their -33.9% DVOA against #2 WRs is good for 3rd-best in the league. So when you watch the game on Sunday, pay attention to how well the Niners' pass DEF (a) prevents Driver from being the target of a pass, and (b) prevents Driver from being productive when he is the target of a pass.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Their OFF must play a lot more efficiently than they have lately, and GB's DEF must play a lot less efficiently than they did in Week 10.
Their OFF must either play more efficiently than expected on 3rd & Long situations or avoid 3rd & long situations altogether.
Their OFF must come out strong in the 1st quarter.
Their OL must block better than expected on runs up the middle.
Their defensive front 7 must play as efficiently as expected when GB runs to the left.
VD must overcome his matchup disadvantage with GB's pass defense.
Their pass defense must either prevent Driver's catches from being productive in crucial situations or prevent him from catching the ball altogether.

Remember, my new posting schedule begins next week. First up on Wednesday is a post evaluating how the Niners played against the Packers according to Singletary's Formula for Success.

*DVOA and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT matchup for the 49ers in Sunday's game against the Packers?

SF offense vs. GB defense on 3rd & long

106 votes

SF offense vs. GB defense in the 1st quarter

23 votes

SF OL vs. GB front 7 on SF runs up the middle

92 votes

SF front 7 vs. GB OL on GB runs to the left

10 votes

Vernon Davis vs. GB pass defense

29 votes

SF pass defense vs. Donald Driver

26 votes

286 votes | Poll has closed

49ers-Packers: 5 questions with Acme Packing Company

Fooch — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:30:12 -0000

The 49ers and Packers will be squaring off in a couple days in a battle of two teams battling for a playoff spot. The 49ers have a better shot than the Packers at winning their division, but it doesn't make this game any less important. Acme Packing Company is the SB Nation Packers blog, and Brandon runs things over there. Big thanks to Brandon for taking a few minutes to answer some of our questions.

Fooch: The Packers lead the league in sacks allowed. Can you explain this problem and how (or even if) the Packers are working to solve it?

APC: The offensive tackles have been the problem. Veteran LT Chad Clifton has only played about half the snaps, and he's not as good as he was a couple years ago. Unfortunately his replacements, either LG Daryn Colledge has slid over or rookie OL T.J. Lang, have been beaten badly. Lang has shown some promise, and played well last week as the starting right tackle, which he may do again this week, but he's still playing like a rookie. RT Allen Barbre started the first 7 games, but he's currently buried deep on the bench. The Packers recently resigned veteran RT Mark Tauscher, who tore his ACL last December, but he reinjured that same knee. He could be back as soon as next week. Once Clifton is finally over the bad ankle that's been bothering him this season, and Tauscher returns, the pass protection should improve.

Fooch: The Packers are fourth in the league in defensive interceptions, thanks in large part to Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Some folks have come over to NN and said Woodson would likely cover Vernon Davis. Is that accurate, and if so, do you know the best ways for teams to beat the Packers secondary?

APC: Woodson doesn't play like a conventional corner. While Harris will always lineup opposite the outside receiver, Woodson is often in the slot. Against the Cowboys, Woodson lined up mostly against Jason Witten, and the Packers played a lot of nickel. But that alignment was unusual for them and probably designed specifically for Witten. I expect they'll cover Davis with a linebacker or safety. However their best LB in pass coverage is Brandon Chillar, who hasn't played at all the last two weeks due to a broken hand. He can play with a cast, and he was active last week, but they didn't use him.

Fooch: How good (or not) exactly are the Packers? The two best teams they've beaten are Dallas and Chicago, both of whom have big flaws (not to say the 49ers have been any better). So what do you make of this Packers team 9 games in?

APC: The Packers are playing outstanding in a lot of areas. They've outscored their opponents by 53 points, outgained them by 755 yards, and are +13 in turnovers. Their run defense and pass defense have been outstanding, although they've had trouble in pass coverage in the red zone. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating over 100, and RB Ryan Grant is at 4.2 yards/carry with only 1 fumble and on pace for over 1200 yards. But where the team is bad, they are really bad. They lead the league in penalties, allowed 41 sacks, and have worst special teams unit in the NFL. They are getting killed in what Mike Tanier called "Hidden Yards".

Fooch: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are the big names among the receivers for outsiders. Is there someone else who the 49ers should pay close attention to among their receivers/tight ends?

APC: Jennings is playing through a bruised knee, but he didn't make it on the injury report this week. The other 3 players who have been dangerous are: TE Jermichael Finley, who is 6'5" and fast, but has missed the last 3 games with a knee/shin injury; TE Spencer Havner, who is a converted practice squad LB who's become Rodgers' favorite target in the red zone with 4 TDs in the last 4 weeks; and WR James Jones, who only has 14 receptions on the season, but 3 TDs and 3 receptions over 40 yards.

Fooch: Ryan Grant seems to be flying well under the radar, even as he puts up some quality rushing totals. I honestly don't know enough about Grant to analyze his game. What kind of running back is he (power back, between the tackles but requiring a solid OL, better outside the tackles, etc.)?

APC: Grant is big and tall, he's listed at 6'1", and he seems to be the type of back Mike McCarthy prefers. When McCarthy was the 49ers OC back in 2005, he stuck with 6'1" Kevan Barlow, so I often compare Grant to Barlow when people wondered why he stuck with Grant last season despite his early troubles. You'll see Grant run off tackle, just inside or just outside on either side. They usually run a couple screen passes per game to him. But he doesn't have the big play ability, so I doubt he'll have any carries greater than 10 yards.

The 49ers defense in the redzone looking back and looking forward

Fooch — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:00:17 -0000

This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel. If you want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations hurry up and get yourself Comcast's NFL RedZone Channel.

Considering how little scoring there was last Thursday, it shouldn't surprise anybody that the red zone opportunities were far and few between for both the 49ers and the Bears. On offense, the 49ers were 1/3 with the one coming on Frank Gore's 14 yard touchdown run after the Tarell Brown interception. On defense, the 49ers kept the Bears out of the end zone on two red zone trips, and in fact, held them to only 3 points on the two trips. The second of those trips culminated in the game clinching Jay Cutler interception in the end zone.

I think it's safe to say that we won't be seeing a five interception performance from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. Rodgers has one 3-interception performance on the season (@ TB), two single interception games, and six games without an interception. That's not to say he won't struggle against the 49ers defense, but in reality, he probably won't turn the ball over too much.

The 49ers defense seems to be deep into bend but don't break territory. Solid quarterbacks seem to get plenty of yards against the 49ers (Cutler, Manning, Schaub, Favre, Warner, Ryan), but aside from Ryan, the 49ers defense has kept team's out of the end zone when needed. I think Aaron Rodgers qualifies as a solid quarterback. I fully expect him to rack up a fair number of yards (250+), but the question is whether he'll be able to convert once the Packers get into the red zone.

Prior to the Bears win, Football Outsiders ranked the 49ers 7th in red zone passing defense. I'd imagine this number improved with the performance against the Bears (not updated yet), but either way, the issue remains the same: Will the Packers offensive playmakers be able to get open and hurt the 49ers? The Packers biggest weapons include WR Donald Driver, WR Greg Jennings and TE Donald Lee. They have others but I'm just pointing the big names out for now.

One thing also to keep in mind in the red zone is that Aaron Rodgers has actually shown some fairly solid abilities as a scrambling quarterback. He currently has 229 rushing yards (6.2 ypc) with three rushing touchdowns. The 49ers have the athletes to keep an eye on him, but if the Packers get down close on goal to go, the 49ers better keep a close eye on #12. Maybe he's not quite on the scrambling level of he who shall not be named (who obviously can scramble better than anybody else, much like he has the best pump fake, the best hard count, and the best whatever else you want), but clearly Rodgers is no slouch in the pocket.

So will the 49ers continue their rather solid ability of containing quarterbacks in the red zone? Or will touchdowns be coming as deep bombs and it just won't matter? Ok, I won't be quite so negative as that. The Packers offense is a bit inconsistent at times, but if the 49ers defense sticks to bend but don't break, will that be enough?