SB Nation - Greg Jennings

Challenge FAIL: Who's to blame?

Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:00:18 -0000

With all the hubbub over Lovie Smith and his poor replay challenge record, I think the real culprit is often overlooked. Yeah I know Lovie is the guy with the red hankie in his pocket, and yeah I know he's the guy dropping it on the field, but what dingbat is up in the booth encouraging him to do so? Is it Ron Turner, or some other visually challenged boob unable to decipher the multiple angles of the replay? How many times in the Lovie Smith era has he challenged a play that had 99% of us fans screaming at our TV? Lovie usually draws our ire, but the blame can't solely fall on him.

I'm sure sometimes Lovie challenges with his gut, any head coach has to go with a feeling from time to time. Because you never know what the referee will see or how he'll justify his decision. The refs miss some calls too. A good example is the earlier challenge by Packer head man Mike McCarthy on the Greg Jennings catch in the end zone. I thought it was a catch, the FOX crew thought it was a catch, and maybe a different official would have ruled it a catch, but on this day it was ruled incomplete.

And on occasion I'm sure Lovie will throw the flag just to back his player. If a player is adamant about his catch or that he didn't fumble, a head coach will send a message to his team that he has your back by dropping the flag. It may not always result in an overturned call, but believing in your player and throwing the challenge flag is the right message... sometimes... and only at the right time. The real smart coaches understand down and distance, field position, score, and time remaining when they throw the flag to back their guy. But they also need to know when to send a message by not throwing a flag. Sometimes a "sit down and shut up" or a "there is no I in team" message is best sent by not throwing the flag.

Getting back to who exactly is in the booth calling down to the sideline letting Lovie know to challenge or not to challenge. Has any one ever called out the exact guy upstairs making the call? Or is there a brain trust up in the booth collectively screwing up? Maybe it's a "too many cooks in the kitchen" type effort? Challenge it, no don't challenge it, should we challenge it, yes challenge, no, yes, I need an answer... OK throw the flag!

My biggest issue with this staff isn't the failed challenges, most coaches strike out more than they hit, it's the Obvious (yes, with a capital O) never have a chance in the world type replays that these knuckleheads challenge. Well, that and the double time out failure from Sunday, but that's off topic...

I think when the Bears are constantly reeeaaaching for hope with these questionable challenges, it tells us that they know they need some luck in order to pull out a win. Good teams create their own luck, but the Bears are hoping the refs can create some luck for them.

Fellow WCG writer Kev H has a good take on this replay challenge subject, be sure to check it out.

I Challenge the Bears to take away Lovie's red flag. Please.

Around SB Nation: Week 14 NFL Rankings, Picks, and Fantasy

Brandon — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 22:52:52 -0000

The SB Nation Week 14 power rankings have moved the Green Bay Packers up to No. 8, which is ahead of two 8-4 teams (Broncos and Cowboys), but still behind two others (Eagles and Cardinals). Is that fair? Or should they be ahead of the Eagles and Cardinals too? It's hard to put them higher than No. 6, since the No. 4 and No. 5 teams have both beaten them this season (Vikings and Bengals).

The NFL SB Nation writers are already 0-1 with our Week 14 picks because the Browns beat the Steelers. Will any other coaches threaten to lock their players out of their locker room if they don't go back out and win? Coaches who do so are currently unbeaten this season. Not surprising, our consensus decision was that the Packers will win.

And check out our suggestions for last minute changes to your Week 14 fantasy roster. Though, I'll admit I'm having a hard time recommending any Packer from week to week except for QB Aaron Rodgers. With WR Greg Jennings staying out of the end zone this season, any of a number of Packers could have a big game (such as TE Jermichael Finley last week). But you never know which one it will be. He was a non-factor the last two weeks, but could this be a good week for RB Ryan Grant?

Six-Pack of Hu-Dey: Time for a new contract extension for Marvin Lewis?

Kirkendall — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:11:27 -0000

Welcome to this week's Six-Pack of Hu-Dey. Today Jay McDonnell joins us. I (Josh Kirkendall, the Alpha Male) discusses why the Bengals should give Marvin Lewis a contract extension, why Leon Hall should be grouped with the league's elite cornerbacks and I ask whether the team's three-tackle rotation at right tackle should be changed.

Jay says that it's time to cut Daniel Coats, that it's time for Bob Bratkowski to become less predictable and that fans of our divisional foes (ah hum, the Steelers) should give a little respect to the Bengals this season.

Let's get to it.

The Bengals give Marvin Lewis another contract extension after this season. I believe in two things. If the moon had never existed, the complex living organisms that exist today simply don't exist either. I also believe that Marvin Lewis has developed a talent rebuilding teams. Theoretically, it would be nice that rebuilding projects were spaced out more with the Bengals and that the train keeps rolling year, after year, after year. Realistically, even organizations that pump out winners like the Patriots or the St... St... St... Steelers need periods to rebuild themselves. Marvin Lewis is now in his seventh season, finishing his second rebuilding project. This, just perhaps, could be his masterpiece.

After going 1-11-1 in 2008, the Bengals have remarkably won 13 of their next 16 games. These changes include, but are far from being limited to, a deep understanding of the team's personnel. Most notably, Lewis revised the team's entire philosophy to a powerful rush offense and a tremendously performing defense. This will be his second rebuilding project after taking on a team that was 2-12 in 2002 and delivering four straight non-losing seasons and a playoff appearance in 2005.

I really believe that Lewis, like any NFL player, is getting better every season. I'm not just talking about his record either. Controversy is being handled with ease. Adversity is a distant thing of the bitter past with this team. Even his draft picks are improving. And when the team is down and out (ala, 2008), they unified and matured like we've never seen, into this group that we're damned proud of in 2009.

Lewis' existing contract expires after the 2010 season -- the same time the CBA expires, which may be a factor in NOT giving him an extension. The Bengals' biggest mistake would be letting two people leave Cincinnati, namely Mike Zimmer and Marvin Lewis. Lewis could arguably be the most important of the two. After all, he's the face of this franchise.

Is it time to for Andre Smith to get his first start or is the three-tackle rotation working? Okay, I get it. Why mess with chemistry? Let's read into the facts. The Bengals are 9-3, sport the league's sixth best rushing offense and have allowed only 22 sacks (which is tied for eight-best in the league). Quite honestly, the Bengals offensive line is the most improved unit, of any unit, on this team. They deserve tremendous credit for the team's transition into one of the best AFC teams that's dismantled both teams that played in the 2008 AFC Championship game. Personal note: I still like writing that.

One of those success stories on the line is Dennis Roland, who has come from undrafted free agent, to starting right tackle, to the biggest guy in human history to go into motion causing safeties and outside linebackers to say under their breath, "oh f**k." Also, in truth, Roland is an accomplished run blocker, if not one of the better run blockers on this team.

But where he's strong with the rushing offense, he's weak in pass protection. At times he appears slow against defensive ends with a quick inside step. This also leads to the lack of communication or awareness when a stunt brings an outside linebacker or safety on a blitz. Slowly Anthony Collins has quietly won more playing time, especially on passing downs.

From our understanding, Andre Smith's playing time is growing. They started him slowly with basic packages and plays. As they expand the playbook for Smith, he'll keep experiencing an increase in playing time. Cincinnati's use of the jumbo packages (putting three, sometimes four offensive tackles on the line) has led to Cedric Benson's best rushing this year. Whatever the Bengals are doing with the offensive line, it's working.

So the question is should the Bengals keep doing what they're doing, or should they give Andre Smith his first NFL start soon?

Should the national media put Leon Hall in the same class as Darrelle Revis? The other day I had a healthy helping of Hamburger Helper that did a Flozell Adams on my stomach. With an older copy of ESPN shouting "hey, I'll help you kill some time," I flipped to an NFL report. Like it was destiny, I kid you not. One of those reports called Leon Hall "the irreplaceable cornerback". Look at the numbers of the receivers that he's shutdown.

Week	Receiver	Att	Comp	Yrds	TD	YPA
1	Brandon Marshall	2	0	0	0	0
2	Greg Jennings	4	0	0	0	0
3	Santonio Holmes	3	1	18	0	6.0
4	Braylon Edwards	1	0	0	0	0
5/9	Derrick Mason	4	1	12	0	3.0
6	Andre Johnson	6	4	39	0	6.5
7	Devin Hester	3	2	28	0	9.3

As I said, it was an older copy so that's where the list ends. We could go on and presume that Hall is strictly covering the opposing team's best wide receiver, but that would be factually incorrect. Leon Hall mostly lines up on the left and the opposing offenses can shift wide receivers anywhere on the field. Furthermore, when the Bengals call zone, he's not always covering a receiver; rather a specific area on the field. However, we do know that in the past four games against the Steelers, Raiders, Browns and Lions, only two receivers gained 80 yards receiving or more (Santonio Holmes with 88 yards and Calvin Johnson with 123 yards).

The Jets' Darrelle Revis is widely considered the best cover cornerback in the league. He leads everyone with 28 passes defensed with five interceptions. Hall is second with 22 passes defensed and four interceptions. At the rate that Leon Hall is shutting down opposing wide receivers he should without a doubt be considered in the elite group of cornerbacks in the league.

Want to know the most scary part? Johnathan Joseph could theoretically be in the same elite group. Third in the league with 21 passes defensed and five interceptions, Joseph is developing a nasty habit of being one hell of a tackling cornerback -- kind of in the league of Charles Woodson. Well, close to it at least.

Would it be a stretch to say that the Bengals have the league's best cornerback duo?

A decision needs to be made about Daniel Coats. At the start of the season the kicking game struggled, which cost the Bengals valuable points, putting the game in doubt and forcing us to constantly check our blood pressure. When executing an extra point or a field goal, the snap was either too high or mishandled due to a bad snap causing Shayne Graham to get out of sync. This led to missed field goals or extra points, weighing heavily on the outcome of the game. So to solve the problem the Bengals released Brad St. Louis and brought in little known long snapper Clark Harris to take over these duties. This seems to have largely solved the problem with the kicking game.

At the same time another problem exists with Tight Ends not being able to catch the ball, specifically Dan Coats who has dropped more passes in the end zone than any other receiver on the team. When he does catch it, the ball is prone to squirting out only to see it recovered by the opposition. These drops and fumbles have cost the Bengals as much as Brad St. Louis ever did.

The Bengals set the standard by releasing the usually reliable St. Louis, sending a statement that poor play is not acceptable. But somehow, they see fit to hang onto a tight end that cannot catch a ball that hits him in his hands over and over again. Yes, the tight end position is thin with Ben Utecht being released and Reggie Kelly out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. That however is no excuse for hanging onto a player that is extremely inconsistent and costing the team valuable points. J.P. Foschi seems to have taken on the opportunity and showed that he is not only able to block, but able to catch and hang onto passes. The precedent was set with the release of St. Louis; with Foschi showing his worth I think it is time for the Bengals to continue their message that mediocrity is not acceptable. Cut Dan Coats.

It is time for the predictable Bratkowski to become unpredictable. Despite the Bengals 9-3 record and mostly the same ingredients of an offense that once established a reputation as being an explosive offense in the past, the Bengals have only one game this season where they routed a team by more than 20 points. The defense has been the unit doing the heavy lifting while the offense seems to only do what is necessary to win the game. To some extent that is fine, until they run into an offense that is able to put up points and quickly (read: the Minnesota Vikings). There appears however to be a reason the offense has not been as explosive as first thought.

In this article published on Cincinnati.com, Bob Bratkowski acknowledges that he is “getting a little too ‘run on first down, run on second” in his play calling. Really? When did he find this out? How many of us see his play calling develop a pattern that causes teams to load eight in the box on a weekly basis? Does he not see this and want to make some kind of adjustment?

This kind of play calling makes the Bengals offense predictable allowing the opposing defense to load up the box, trying to force the Bengals to be one dimensional. But so far, teams have been unable to accomplish this on a regular basis. There is a thought process that you keep calling the same play until the defense stops it. I am not saying this should continue, but I am sure Brat does this because it works and he will probably continue to do this until someone stops it. However, since Brat has recognized this problem I hope he is able to adjust and open up the passing game showing opposing defenses that predictability is no longer an issue.

How about a little respect from our division foes? My wife and I live in an area that somehow seems to have more Pittsburgh Steeler fans then those who support the local team, the Washington Redskins. We work with several Steeler fans as well. These fans are as loyal as any. They will defend their team no matter the record and performance. But when the discussion turns to how the Bengals have surged ahead of the Steelers, they immediately run behind the 6 Super Bowl Championships and how they won two of the past four. They even cite how they qualified as a wild card team in 2005 and went on to win the Super Bowl, never mind the fact that Carson Palmer had his knee torn up by the Steelers.

The results of this season are not new to those fans; they have suffered through tough seasons following Super Bowl appearances dating back to 1996 against the Dallas Cowboys. Now that the Steelers are struggling and their fans are watching their playoff hopes fade, those fans seem to refuse to accept the fact the Bengals are the better team this season. The Steeler fans my wife and I have come across have shown a bit of arrogance and seem to expect to make the playoffs despite the heavy odds against them. With their current record of 6-6, a playoff appearance seems slim.

The Bengals have the AFC North pretty much sewn up with the magic number being one. Ask any Steeler fan though, and they will tell you how they are going to make the playoffs because of the soft schedule remaining. Well, I have some bad news for those Steeler fans that visit our fair web blog to read what we may have to say. The Steelers are not going to make the playoffs. After losing four straight games and giving up 4th quarter leads in three of those games, the vaunted defense has proved itself unable to protect a lead. This, of course, does not bode well for the defending Super Bowl Champs any chance their fans insist they still have to enter the playoff club in 2009.

Packers-Ravens Retroactive Live-Blog

Mitchell_M — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:13:49 -0000

It's been two months since I've really been active on the site. For some of you, that is a terrible tragedy. For many, many more, it is a source of endless joy. But today I decided to cater to the minority and make my presence known by throwing a mini-fiesta with my DVR, a bowl of Reese's Puffs, and a strong pot of coffee.

Before we get going with the retroactive live-blog, let me just share some of the knowledge I've gained over the course of working for 80 out of a possible 168 hours in a week:

There are few things more traumatic than the transition from college-life to real-life. I imagine it's somewhat like being born, except you're slightly more conscious and slightly less sticky.

Unlike most co-eds, I worked my way through and avoided drinking my way out of school, but nothing can truly prepare you for the real world. There's chores? You have to do them, otherwise you're living in filth. There's bills? You have to pay them, otherwise a large Italian gentleman will break your ribs. There's family gatherings you'd rather not attend? You have to go to them, because you don't have the homework excuse anymore.

Real life blows, I'm going to grad school.
Trying to keep in shape? Don't work overnights. You will have no energy whatsoever during the daytime hours. I play basketball to keep myself in shape and satisfy my over-competitiveness, and I love it. But I haven't played in two months, and I've gotten noticably soft. Amazing, considering I've lost weight.
Dry spells. Guys, when women say that they're too tired, it's generally a toss-up between them actually being tired and not wanting to deal with you. When a guy says it? Definitely tired.
Caffeine has an odd effect after consuming too much for it. The most noticeable symptom is when you're lying down after finally getting home and you get the ringing in the ears. It keeps me up for at least half an hour, and my mom (who worked 3rd shift for over a decade) says it doesn't go away. Awesome.
Watching sports is a major hassle. Not only do I miss the majority of my Sunday NFL-watching, but working nights has ruined any chance I have of watching any NBA games during the week. DVR has been my best friend, but it somehow isn't enough.

On to the live-blog! I DVR'd this last night and watched it immediately as I got home. I did not check the score at any time on Monday night, and I have no knowledge whatsoever of the outcome. Enjoy!

Pre-game observations:

I forgot how cool of an environment Lambeau is on national TV at night. Other cities have their stadiums surrounded by other big buildings with big, bright lights, but Lambeau sort of stands alone in the still-tiny Green Bay. It's kind of cool, even though it's quaint.
Another thing I forgot? Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski are still in the MNF booth. Let's put it this way: it took roughly two minutes for Gruden to make the first (of what I predict will be many) "Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood" jokes. Ugh.
Ed Reed is announced as inactive for the game. Good timing to get the Ravens without their ball-hawk extraordinaire, not to mention good time by ESPN's cameras, who immediately cut to Reed spitting an enormous loogie. Between that and the beard, he looks like a homeless guy (who makes roughly 100,000x my salary).
Ray Lewis may have lost a step or four, but he's still quite the motivational speaker. It's like if Lil' Jon was coherent and dread-less.
The Nike Kobe and LeBron puppets are back. Frowny-face.
And here comes the Ray Rice love. Am I pleasantly surprised by my alma mater's best football product? Yes. Am I ecstatic to have drafted him (against my then-better judgement) in the ninth round of my keeper league? Yes and yes.

Alright, enough of that. Let's play some ball, gentlemen.

First Quarter!

15:00 - Green Bay receives, and Jordy Nelson avoids both tacklers and fumble-itis all the way to the 43-yard line. Decent start.

14:34 - A play-action draw pass? Sounds terrible, but it gained 7.

13:59 - So that's why we still have Brandon Jackson. Excellent scramble by Rodgers to find Jackson in the flat for the first down.

12:44 - Ravens call a timeout (symptom of missing Ed Reed #1), and the next thing we see is Jimmy Football. If someone were to kick him in the groin, I would not object. Extra points for wearing a Billy Mays mask and demanding royalties from Budweiser.

12:32 - ESPN shows a graphic illustrating Aaron Rodgers' awesomeness on 3rd down, and he promptly finds James Jones for a first down. Outstanding blitz pickup by both Chad Clifton (the blocker) and Scott Wells (the center).

11:22 - Korey Hall and Josh Sitton pancake Ray Lewis, opening a hole for Grant to gain a first down. In other news, Did you know that Ryan Grant is 8th in the league in rushing yards? When did that happen?

10:08 - ESPN continues the Rodgers love-fest by displaying his red-zone stats. Apparently, he has 30 TDs and 0 INTs over the past two seasons when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Yikes.

9:17 - Mark Tauscher comes up with a tipped pass and gets tackled for a loss. I'd criticize his decision to catch it versus batting it down, but whenever linemen get the ball, they seem so damn happy. I can't ruin it for him.

8:41 - Mason Crosby nearly shanks a 28-yarder. The Green Bay offense stalls in the red zone again, settling for the "easy" 3. Sadly, neither are surprises this season.

8:30 - Le'Ron McClain's smile is hilarious. Mark Clayton looks like 50 Cent. I can't wait to see the offensive linemen.

8:30 - And for good reason. Not only is Marshal Yanda's name funny, but he looks like an uncomfortable 7th grader who hasn't gotten used to his new body yet.

7:40 - Good containment on Ray Rice in the flat, but not good enough. First down, Baltimore.

7:01 - Flacco tightropes for a just-barely first down after being flushed out of the pocket. He may have looked like an idiot doing it, but it was probably better than getting pasted by Cullen Jenkins. I'll make fun of him either way.

5:05 - Bad decision by Nick Collins to go for the pick instead of batting down the ball. Another first down for Baltimore.

4:18 - Well, a fumble recovery certainly absolves Collins of any wrongdoing on the previous play. Clay Matthews is closing in on the "if a huge defensive play happens he must've had something to do with it" status currently held by Charles Woodson.

4:08 - Ryan Grant tries to return the favor, but his right knee looked like it could be down. Maybe. Possibly. Could go either way. This time, it goes the Packers' way.

3:48 - A great play by Dominique Foxworth that was (un)fortunately flagged as interference. The replay shows a grab or two, but probably

3:39 - No matter, Rodgers throws it directly to Tom ~~I-can't-spell-his-last-name-unless-I-check-the-recap-which-will-ruin-the-ending~~ Zbikowski.

2:06 - Now that's how you commit pass interference! Thanks ~~Atari Bigby~~ Tramon Williams! /facepalm

1:52 - Nick Collins makes everyone forget about Williams' transgression by picking off an ill-advised flea-flicker pass into quadruple coverage. Yeah, Flacco shouldn't have done that.

0:00 - An underwhelming first quarter filled with above-average defense and one boneheaded interception for both sides. 3-0, Green Bay.

Second Quarter!

14:52 - B.J. Raji sheds a block and drops Ray Rice for a big loss. Lucky he didn't get called for face masking, but a good play nonetheless.

14:12 - Derrick Mason just barely misses a catchable ball to force 4th down. I thought veteran receivers were supposed to make that play? I guess having Donald Driver on your team gives you a skewed expectation for aging wideouts.

13:14 - Great adjustment by James Jones to come back and grab the ball for a first down. He's definitely taken control of the 3rd WR spot on this team lately.

11:59 - By my count, that's three catches in this game that Jennings should have had but failed to come up with. This troubles me.

11:55 - Punting inside the 50-yard line? Greg Easterbrook would be appalled, then proceed to write a 10,000 word article about it. Shoot, if I included random interstellar factoids, referred to certain teams by ridiculous self-coined nicknames, and added superfluous cheerleader facts that allowed me to post their photos, I'd be Greg Easterbrook.

11:13 - Trey Wingo informs us that Jimmy Clausen will be entering the 2010 NFL Draft. Brady Quinn advises him to stay in school.

11:06 - Charles Woodson gets busted for mauling Derrick Mason. The groping wasn't necessary, Chuck.

11:01 - Clay Matthews asserts himself all over Joe Flacco. Jared Gaither doesn't know what just happened.

10:21 - Offsides on Clay Matthews? Jared Gaither claims to know what happened on the previous play.

9:48 - I know Jordy Nelson was dynamite at Kansas State, but I haven't seen enough promise out of him to merit keeping him on punt returns. Then again, it's more important to keep Woodson and Williams fresh, and Will Blackmon made his yearly trip to I.R. early this season.

8:30 - Haloti Ngata owns Daryn Colledge to drop Ryan Grant at the line. I wonder how long until Colledge loses his spot?

7:51 - It's plays like this that got Frank Walker traded. Thanks for the yardage!

7:42 - Ahman Green exhibits remarkable blitz pickup to spring Jermichael Finley on a big gain. Mike Tirico noted this, and Gruden promptly refers to him as Brandon Jackson (twice!) before correcting himself.

5:08 - Jermichael Finley makes another big play, thanks to another great third down throw from Rodgers. First and goal, Packers.

4:35 - I'm no psychic, but as soon as I saw Finley split out wide, I saw the quick fade coming. Fantastic throw, outstanding catch, b-e-a-utiful play. 10-0, Packers.

4:35 - I just remembered my fantasy football situation. Going into this week, three teams in my division were 7-5, with me among them. I play one of them this week and the other next week, and the other already has his victory wrapped up. I'm up 130-24 in a game I need to win to move into a tie for first place and help secure a playoff spot next week (the final week of the season). My opponent has Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, and the Packers defense playing. I have Ray Rice. Man, am I glad that his other players (Adrian Peterson, Reggie Wayne, Ricky Williams) all laid eggs.

2:00 - The two-minute warning comes up, and Mike Tirico just got done "highlighting" the Packers' 38-28 loss to Tampa Bay. In the team meeting the described, he said that the offensive line stood up and said something to the effect of "hey, you have to help us out too". I hope I misheard him.

1:50 - Rodgers gets the first on a sneak, and a fight nearly breaks out because Brandon Jackson is protecting Rodgers from what he thought was a late hit. Whether he was right or wrong, it is nice to see that kind of fight in your team.

1:24 - Donald Driver goes flying, earning Baltimore its 11th pass interference penalty on the year, leading the league.

1:18 - Green Bay ruins the momentum by giving up their first sack of the game. /facepalm

1:09 - And Rodgers gets it right back with a 20-yard scramble right up the middle. I take back my /facepalm.

0:38 - Rodgers delivers a Jon-Gruden-Quarterback-Fraternity-Approved LASER to Greg Jennings' back shoulder. Nice, except for Gruden's rambling.

0:32 - Rodgers connects with Donald Driver for a score, punctuated by two acrobatic leaps by Driver (one into the end zone, one into the stands). The Packer fan in me is ecstatic: the fantasy football owner is frantic.

0:00 - A solid defensive stand by Green Bay keeps the shutout alive. 17-0 Green Bay, at the half.

Halftime observations:

None. I have to be at work again in 8 hours (as of 1 PM), and I haven't slept yet. But the score doesn't lie. This game is totally worth staying up for.

Third Quarter!

14:07 - I don't know how they practiced for the past week and a half, but Green Bay is absolutely starving Ray Rice. He's trying his damndest, but he can't make anything happen. Why'd I start him against the #1 defense again?

12:31 - Brad Jones notches a sack from the strong side. Rookie 7th round pick? No matter. Boring name? Who cares? Buried on the depth chart? Not for long, I hope.

12:05 - Ryan Grant doesn't gain a ton of yards on this play, but it looks as if he's churning his legs and fighting for extra yardage more than I'm used to seeing from him. Did anyone else notice this?

9:57 - Rodgers gets time in the pocket, makes even more time, dances around, and finally gets sacked. Somehow, the play is negated by an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty. It seems like one of those games for Green Bay tonight.

9:30 - Then Scott Wells gets called for holding. Yep, it's definitely one of those games for Green Bay tonight, even if the score doesn't reflect it.

9:04 - Wow, I'm going to stop complaining about stupid penalties. I almost feel bad for Ravens fans. P.I. number twelve on the year for Baltimore.

8:27 - Jermichael Finley re-injures his knee. Not at all happy to see that.

8:23 - Nice connection to Driver that results in a fumble that quite possibly could be ruled an incompletion, if it was reviewed. Blah, a 17-0 lead in the third quarter shouldn't be this frustrating.

8:01 - Jon Gruden: "Somebody has to rescue the Ravens' offense right now." Yeah, that's Ray Rice's job, and he didn't come in today.

7:50 - As if on cue, Ray Rice rips off a big run. Jon Gruden gets to feel smart, and I lose a little bit of my soul.

6:07 - Jon Gruden praises Charles Woodson's ball-raking ability. The adolescent-me giggles uncontrollably.

5:18 - "Nobody strips a ball like Charles Woodson!" Adolescent-me is now crying with laughter.

5:13 - Todd Heap drops a sure-fire 1st and goal, then Tramon Williams forces Mark Clayton to drop one in the end zone with a slightly-more sneaky arm bar. Illegal? Yes. Effective? Absolutely, that's why it's illegal.

3:35 - I don't know what the refs were talking about before this drive, but they are letting the defense play. You don't see many drives last this long against a defense that's getting away with everything.

3:28 - A free play and a Kelley Washington touchdown deflates the stadium. The play gets challenged, but I'm skeptical.

3:28 - Modern Warfare 2 commercial, set to Eminem's "Til I Collapse". Best 30 seconds of non-football I've seen today. Get that game, if you can handle it.

3:28 - Turns out that I was right; the score stands. Green Bay is out of challenges for the game, unless of course they used the item cheat and got one for free. 17-7, Packers.

3:22 - Evan Dietrich-Smith comes up with the kickoff. My immediate thought: "This cannot end well." Of course he fumbled, but Green Bay was lucky enough to regain possession.

3:14 - Jared Johnson gets an interception off of Driver's shin. I'm not liking this third quarter. Too much bad mojo.

3:07 - More bad mojo with Tramon Williams' P.I. in the end zone. Actually, this one is relatively tame compared to other plays the refs have allowed tonight (today?).

2:58 - Willis McGahee pushes his fantasy-irrelevant self in from the 1. Makes my Ray Rice decision feel even better. 17-14, Packers. /double facepalm

2:43 - Jennings manages a nice gain on a 3rd and 10 slant. I was just about to start considering wondering whether or not Green Bay was possibly maybe starting to lose it.

1:52- Ray Lewis nearly decapitates Greg Jennings, and the flag takes forever to come in. But it does, which is all that matters.

0:42 - A Mark Tauscher hold takes Green Bay out of the red zone the same way they got in: on the yellow cloth road.

0:00 - I knew this game seemed too sloppy to be a blowout. 17-14, Packers, but our guys are in scoring position.

Fourth Quarter!

14:50 - Mason Crosby shanks a field goal, leaving the drive with nothing to show for it. Same score, same story. I sure hope the defense can regain its first-half composure.

13:53 - Flacco unleashes the dragon deep, Derrick Mason gets past Charles Woodson and makes the catch over him, but somehow got called for offensive pass interference. At this point, I don't know which team is trying to give the other team more breaks, honestly. And an unsportsmanlike penalty on Mason is tacked on at the end of it. A huge gain turns into a huge loss in a heartbeat. 3rd and 32 (!).

13:05 - So of course Baltimore decides to run the ball and Ray Rice nearly fumbles. Green Bay gets the ball back with decent field position.

12:30 - And here comes the replay of the Mason interference/unsportsmanlike penalties. There was definitely a hook-and-push around Woodson's waist, and Mason follows up that number with a plea for leniency to the referee. Pretty standard, right? Nah, just kidding, he pretty much shouted in the ref's face, "What the f--- was that, man?" Yeah, that's a flaggin'.

10:31 - Jermichael Finley gets another touchdown after a couple of nice short passes to get within 20 yards. Aaron Rodgers' red-zone stats improve, Jermichael gets the "Mr. Monday Night" nickname, my fantasy team starts to quiver in terror, and the score jumps to 24-14, Packers.

10:21 - Ah, Green Bay special teams, you never cease to disgust me. A massive kick return puts the Ravens deep into Green Bay territory. Then again, how hard is it to juke out Mason Crosby? The goalposts do it to him on a weekly basis.

9:46 - Tramon Williams earns yet another pass interference flag in the end zone. I thought there was a cap to how many times a player could get flagged for the same thing over and over?

/conveniently forgetting the Ahmad Carroll era

9:30 - How? How? How does a cornerback make that play? Tell me how Charles Woodson just stopped McGahee when he had a massive opening to go through? Between that and flustering the Ravens to the point of calling a timeout, I'm pretty sure Charles Woodson should gain an edge for the DPOY award after tonight.

8:47 - Joe Flacco rolls nearly 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, avoids a sack, and tosses it nicely into Tramon Williams hands. Mike Tirico exclaimed "That is terrible!" as the ball was still in the air! I cannot believe Flacco made that throw. Downright Bad Favre-esque. Kudos to Williams for not retreating into the fetal position after all the penalties tonight.

8:38 - Still trying to figure out the last three plays of that Baltimore drive. Tackle for loss, timeout, interception, all from within the 5-yard line. When's the last time Green Bay came up with that kind of stop?

7:12 - Baltimore's defense forces a 3-and-out as the King of Third Down and James Jones miscommunicate on a fly-stop route.

6:48 - Yeah, Joe Flacco's having a bad day. This time he throws it right into the hands of A.J. Hawk, who was quietly having another solid game (which is EXACTLY WHY WE DRAFTED HIM! FOR QUIET, SOLID GAMES!) before this play. Back-to-back interceptions for the Unibrow, and I'm almost sad to see it. Remember, my fantasy team is up 130-24, but I'm playing Rodgers, Finley, and the Packer defense while starting Ray Rice. The offense I can deal with, but this stifling defense is killing me!

6:00 - Ahman Green smashes his way to gain a short first down, and the running out of the clock commences. How much time can they milk from the clock?

2:56 - Turns out they can burn a whole lot of time. Interesting graphic on Green Bay receivers, going from Sharpe to Brooks to Freeman to Driver to Jennings.

2:15 - "Hey Coach Gruden, I found a pair of your old practice shorts." If there's a better setup for a pasty white guy wearing green-and-gold short-shorts in below-freezing weather, I've never seen it.

1:56 - Crosby avoids the shank-osaurus and makes it 27-14, Packers. Solid lead.

1:52 - Gruden brings up the possibility of a Vikings-Packers rematch in the playoffs. I say, don't get ahead of yourself, but the prospect of facing what might be a slowly-fading Favre, a possibly nicked-up Peterson, and a banged-up defense in Minnesota isn't nearly as terrifying as it seems.

0:29 - Fittingly, Clay Matthews chases Flacco down for his second sack of the day. Ted Thompson deserves all the slack in the world for having the stones to trade up for this guy. He could draft Jimmy Clausen next season and I'd still like him.

0:00 - The sack is the last play of the game, and the Packers earn the win, 27-14.

Post-game thoughts:

Not many, again due to my exhaustion. But I will say this: the offense played relatively well, Aaron Rodgers carried the team with his passing. The defense was stifling for much of the game, and Charles Woodson should be the front-runner for DPOY, and even in the conversation for defensive-players-who-deserve-the-MVP-but-won't-get-it-because-they're-not-a-quarterback-or-running-back (if he wasn't already). The playcalling was really well thought out on both sides of the ball, and the execution of many of the plays was awfully impressive.

But two things stand out as glaring negatives. First was the penalties. So many penalties. If Baltimore didn't flag it up more than we did, it would stand out more. Tramon Williams has a lot of talent, but he cannot ~~get caught using~~ use that armbar anymore. It simply costs too much yardage. And Chad Clifton needs to get his business together, because he's smarter than he's playing.

The second thing was the final score. 27-14 seems like a solid win, but with all of the opportunities that the Ravens gave up, it should have been a much wider margin. Playoff teams win games like this soundly, which the Packers did. They should, they're a playoff team. But championship teams beat their opponent senseless when they come up with as many takeaways as they did (4).

All that said, this is Green Bay's fourth straight win after falling to 4-4. You can't ask for a better setup for the final quarter of the season.

And my fantasy team? They hung on for a 137-80 victory, largely because I had actually started Rashard Mendenhall instead of Ray Rice. See what working third shift does to you?

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 12

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Yesterday, I noted some pretty promising statistical improvements for the 49ers' OFF. Today, we'll see whether stats and rankings for the Niners' offensive players have also improved as one would expect; or perhaps the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? To this end, I'll be adding the same kind of change stats I've started presenting in my other posts this week. Again, it's the direction of change, not necessarily its magnitude, that's more important from my perspective.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 90 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 96 carries, WRs need at least 38 targets, and TEs need at least 18 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 208 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Pass	0.20	24	0.20	25	0.00	+1
YAR per Pass	0.50	23	0.12	25	+0.38	+2
EYds per Pass	5.31	25	5.23	25	+0.08	0
Yds per Pass	5.78	25	5.81	24	-0.03	-1
DVOA	-7.9%	24	-7.9%	25	0.0%	0
VOA	-3.2%	23	-9.2%	25	+6.0%	+2

As you can see, the only things that have showed any meaningful improvement are Smith's unadjusted stats, YAR/P and VOA. Not surprisingly, the 49ers' unadjusted OFF Pass VOA is what showed meaningful improvement among their team stats. Obviously, Smith threw every pass against the Jaguars, so this is kind of a "duh" finding. However, the important point is that Smith and the Niners had a productive passing attack against JAX, but more than just "productive" is what was expected against the 31st-ranked JAX pass DEF. Nevertheless, you have to crawl before you walk, so Smith and the Niners' pass OFF need to pass well against bad pass DEFs before he/they can start passing well against good DEFs.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 128 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Run	0.48	20	0.58	17	-0.10	-3
YAR per Run	0.30	25	0.48	20	-0.18	-5
EYds per Run	4.20	22	4.38	22	-0.18	0
Yds per Run	5.03	5	5.46	3	-0.43	-2
DVOA	3.3%	19	6.2%	16	-2.9%	-3
VOA	-0.9%	24	3.6%	18	-4.5%	-6

Interesting, eh? Gore's stats - adjusted and unadjusted - got worse across the board, yet, the 49ers' Rush OFF VOA improved after the Jags game and their Rush OFF DVOA stayed essentially the same. What gives?

Well, there are two phenomena at play here. First, realize that play-by-play efficiency as a team is compared to the average of other NFL teams, whereas play-by-play efficiency as an individual is compared to the average of other players at that position. So, it seems as though the Niners' running game is getting better relative to the rest of the league, but Gore's running is getting worse relative to other RBs. Second - and this should be far more obvious - Gore's not the only player carrying the ball in the Niners' run OFF. As it specifically relates to the Jags game, remember that Delanie Walker had an 11-yard carry on 2nd & 2, and Alex Smith had a 10-yard scramble on 2nd & 7, both of which are considered highly efficient plays according to DVOA.

So, keep these two points in mind as we move forward in the post. They're going to reappear a few more times before we're done.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Here are Crabtree's stats through 44 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.43	67	-0.22	60	-0.21	-7
YAR per Target	-0.02	61	0.03	58	-0.05	-3
EYds per Target	5.16	71	5.47	67	-0.31	-4
Yds per Target	7.86	36	8.11	33	-0.25	-3
DVOA	-18.9%	69	-15.7%	62	-3.2%	-7
VOA	-13.1%	62	-12.3%	58	-0.8%	-4

Like Gore, we see decline across the board when it comes to Crabtree. However, you'll notice that each of his adjusted stats declined more drastically than his unadjusted stats. So, his stats display similar opponent-dependent characteristics to that of Smith. Hope you're sensing a theme here. Regardless, though, I'll say the same thing I did last week: I'm not worried about Crabs, no matter what the stats say.

Here are Morgan's stats through 51 targets so far this season:

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.41	65	0.16	55	-0.57	-10
YAR per Target	0.10	57	0.42	50	-0.32	-7
EYds per Target	5.67	67	6.56	54	-0.89	-13
Yds per Target	6.82	55	7.09	51	-0.27	-4
DVOA	-18.0%	66	-10.5%	55	-7.5%	-11
VOA	-11.5%	58	-7.3%	50	-4.2%	-8

OK. This is a little bit more problematic for me because these are massive declines across the board. It almost defies belief that Morgan's EYds/T can drop that much from targets 44 to 51 on the season. I still say that Morgan will be fine in the long-run as a productive #2 WR once he learns his new position. However, what his stats show is that, contrary to how the saying goes, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. Having only 2 successful plays in 8 targets, and only 1 reception go for more than 10 yards, against the 29th-ranked pass DEF against #2 WRs pretty much defines inefficiency.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 92 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	1.18	18	1.08	17	+0.10	-1
YAR per Target	1.21	18	1.10	19	+0.11	+1
EYds per Target	7.80	19	7.53	21	+0.27	+2
Yds per Target	7.28	19	7.24	22	+0.04	+3
DVOA	11.8%	18	10.4%	18	1.4%	0
VOA	12.2%	18	10.6%	18	1.6%	0

If I could call Alex Smith "the #25 QB in the NFL" last week based on the consistency of his rankings, then I can dub VD "the #18 TE in the NFL." Of course, that's far more tongue-in-cheek than my Smith evaluation. We all know VD's much better than his stats show, and, after last week's post, we should all know that the reason these stats are what they are is because VD's tied for 2nd-most-targeted TE in the NFL. So bottom line is, don't freak out.

What is accurately reflected in the table is the fact that the Niners' overall pass OFF improvement has ridden the wave of VD (Aside: Sorry for all the nautical references today. I'm trying to give the STD references a week off.). It's clear that, based on his number of targets, the pass OFF goes as VD goes; based on his increasing EYards/T, VD goes as his new downfield-passing QB goes; and based on his DVOA, the Niners' level of efficiency in the passing game goes as throwing the ball downfield to VD goes.

Finally, as this is my last chance to really mention it, I'll just also quickly note that the Smith did a really good job of spreading the ball around against JAX. Specifically, among the 3 pass catchers I've detailed today, VD had 9 targets, Morgan had 8 targets, and Crabtree had 7 targets. For sure, this is a pleasant development. Having 3 legitimate options in the passing attack definitely beats having 1, which seemed to be the case just 8 weeks ago.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here's the OL's directional run-blocking chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

In my enthusiasm over Adjusted BS Rate, I totally forgot to mention the fact that the 49ers' OL is now ranked dead last in the league. Granted, their actual ALY only dropped 0.02 yards per carry, but it's still an ignominious achievement. Once again, though, it's interesting to see how, although the Niners' Rush OFF DVOA has gotten considerably better since Smith took over at QB, the OL deserves very little, if any, of the credit. This doesn't really fit well with my theory related to the run-blocking benefits of increased shotgun, so I'm pretty much stumped. All I can think of is that perhaps (a) more of the rush OFF's short gains are ending up as "successful plays" because of the down and distance, and/or (b) adjusting line yards for the caliber of an opponents' DF7 is different than adjusting Rush OFF DVOA for the caliber of an opponents' rush DEF overall. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again in this post.

With respect to directional ALY, not much has changed. The OL continues to improve in LE ALY, but that's still most likely due to a regression to the mean; and the same thing probably goes for RE ALY given they don't run the ball in that direction very much either. Otherwise, the glaring problem remains. Jimmy Raye loves to run the ball up the middle despite the fact that his OL absolutely sucks blocking in that direction.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

Here's the DF7's directional run-stopping chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

The big changes here occurred on runs up the middle and behind RT. Essentially, the DF7 got struck by a triple whammy of (a) having JAX run the ball fewer times in those directions than the 49ers were previously accustomed to, (b) having those runs go for more yardage than the 49ers were previously accustomed to allowing, and (c) having those yards allowed come via the directions in which the otherwise-top-tier JAX OL were least proficient. Add those 3 things up and you have a DF7 whose C/G ALY ranking dropped 6 spots (up 0.40 yards per carry), and whose RT ALY ranking dropped 3 spots (up 0.13 yards per carry). At least in this instance the changes in player stats matched the changes in team stats: remember, the Niners' Rush DEF DVOA got 1.4% worse after the JAX game.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

Pretty much everything is the same here, including the fact that starting Dre Bly didn't seem to adversely affect the Niners' pass DEF against opposing #1 WRs. Of course, defending Mike Sims-Walker is just a tad bit easier than defending Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Greg Jennings. There is one descent-sized change, though: DVOA against receiving RBs. Another week, another game full of screen passes that gouge the 49ers' pass DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 11 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Still better than Hill, though not as instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement as you might think.
Frank Gore: Making the 49ers' run OFF better, but not making his own stats better.
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: Instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement.
The OL: Now officially the worst in the league.
The DF7: Great when not encountering triple whammies.
The secondary: Still better without Nate Clements; not better with Dre Bly.

Later this morning: 49ers-Seahawks game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Greg Manusky Approval Rating, Week 11

Fooch — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Today, Black Friday, we wrap up our big three Approval Ratings with Greg Manusky. Some folks have clamored for a Scot McCloughan Approval Rating. We did one after the draft, and probably should have done another one before the start of the preseason. Now seems like too arbitrary a time to do another one, although some may disagree. Maybe as soon as the season is over?

Last week saw Greg Manusky roll to an impressive 97% approval rating, which came after Jay Cutler's 5-interception performance on Thursday Night Football a week before. The 49ers defense followed that up with what can only qualify as a stinker against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw for 344 yards and Ryan Grant rushed for 129 yards. Oh and Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked more than any other QB in the league? Well the 49ers did get 2 sacks, but neither came until the 4th quarter, at which point the Packers had a comfortable lead.

The worst part of the game from a defensive standpoint had to be the inability to stop the Packers over the course of the final six minutes of the game. The 49ers trailed by six points and could not get one last stop, twice giving up third down conversions. The 49ers are aspiring to be a great defense, but they're clearly not quite to that level. They've been a bend but don't break defense most of the season and it has been frustrating as all get out. Of course, combine that bend but don't break attitude with an offense that doesn't know how to put together many sustained drives, and you have a defense that is probably exhausted quickly.

The second worst part of the game was probably the awful tackling. The worst example had to be on Greg Jennings
64-yard touchdown catch and run early in the second quarter. Jennings caught the pass and had Dashon Goldson basically brush off him and collide with a fellow defender. You simply can't be shooting yourself in the foot like that if you want to be a great defense.

In the end, how much blame can fall on DC Greg Manusky for this kind of performance? There are questions of the personnel at his disposal, but even still, how much of the blame goes on the defensive game-planning, and how much goes on simple poor execution?

Poll

Do you approve of the job Greg Manusky is doing as defensive coordinator?

Yes

334 votes

No

96 votes

430 votes | Poll has closed

Cooking your way to Fantasy Turkey - Week 12 Fantasy Edition

Andrew Davidson — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

Should the Lions adopt the Goobledygooker as their Thanksgiving Mascot? Yep.(via 4.bp.blogspot.com)

View full size photo »

If there's one thing I've ever been jealous of Americans for, it's their awesome Thanskgiving tradition. The 3 Fs, Football, Family and Food, are something every nation should adopt on the last Thursday in November. The only bad thing about the tradition are the Detroit Lions. There was a time when Barry Sanders ran around on Turkey Day to make things interesting, but the thought of Matthew Stafford carving up the Green Bay Packers like he did the Browns is far fetched (especially considering his injury). At least the afternoon game will be interesting, right?

Not so fast, viewers will be treated with the Oakland Raiders visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Let's give the schedule makers a pat on the back for setting that contest up on Thanksgiving; good luck keeping your pumpkin pie down. At least the night game has promise, that is had promise until the Denver Broncos went on a 4-game losing skid. Denver hosts the New York Giants, who recently snapped their own 4-game slide. The Giants should be able to take care of business, but here's hoping the game is entertaining. Let's take a look from the fantasy side of things, to see who you'll be grateful for come turkey time.

Continue on after the jump to check out the forecasts for this Thanksgiving's games...

Packers @ Lions

Aaron Rodgers - Well it's pretty simple, the Lions have little defense and little chance at stopping Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay QB has a pretty good shot at upstaging Peyton Manning's 6-TD performance in 2004, if he's still in the game after half time. The Lions may be able to sack Rodgers a few times, but seriously what Rodgers fantasy owner hasn't been looking forward to this game since draft day? Turkey Day forecast: 275 pass yards, 4 PaTDs, 0 INTs

Greg Jennings - Thanks to Jennings for breaking out against San Francisco last Sunday, we really do appreciate it. Jennings may be able to match his game totals by the end of the first half in this one, while the Packers are still throwing the ball to get a big lead. If you can name anyone on the Lions that stands a chance at covering Jennings, I'll inform you that you're delirious. Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 100 yards, 2 TDs

Donald Driver - The veteran WR is having an excellent season to date, and while he may not top 100 yards in Detroit, he's certainly worth starting. You can lay down some coin on Driver scoring, because it's all but guaranteed that he'll reach pay dirt. Heck, your lineup wouldn't look too bad if you had Rodgers, Jennings and Driver as your QB, WR1, WR2. Even James Jones might make a good WR3 this week. Week 12 forecast: 7 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Ryan Grant - After the performance against San Francisco, it's hard to even consider putting Grant on the bench for this Thanksgiving Day match-up. You'd seriously have to have MJD and AP to think of benching Grant against the Lions. The Packers should be leading (and by a bunch), so the RB should benefit and receive a healthy amount of carries. Put him in and smile at the results. Week 12 forecast: 125 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 15 yards

Jermichael Finley - Finley returned to the lineup last weekend, and will likely be in the lineup against Detroit. The Green Bay TE managed 7 catches for 54 yards in his return, and will see similar success against the Lions. While he's certainly not going to set the world on fire, he's a good option against a very bad team. Week 12 forecast: 6 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD

Green Bay Team DEF - The Packers defense is finally turning into a well oiled machine, but also has some key players lost for the season. That shouldn't make a difference against the Lions, even though Matt Stafford launched 5 TDs and 422 yards against Cleveland. Calvin Johnson's big performance shouldn't scare you away from the Packers defense either. However, and this is a big however, the Lions may be able to put up some points in comeback mode, which could hurt the value a tad. Week 12 forecast: 20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FR, 1 Def TD

Calvin Johnson - Megatron is Detroit's best chance at getting back into the game if they get down early, and best chance to stay with the Packers if the game is close. His fantasy season has been disappointing thus far, and his injuries have his status in question for this divisional game. It's unlikely he'll play, so keep him out of your lineup. Week 12 forecast: Injured.

Dante Culpepper - Matt Stafford looked very good against Cleveland (as I've said several times already) and Detroit faces a slightly dinged up Packers squad. Stafford suffered a separated shoulder Sunday, and it's unclear whether he'll play at the time I write this. Dante Culpepper will likely get the nod, and I don't think he'll do anything better or worse than Stafford against the Packers. Regardless, it won't be wise to start either unless INTs don't count against you in your fantasy league. Week 12 forecast: Stafford OUT; Culpepper IN (bench both)

Kevin Smith - I'll spare writing out the rest of the Lions "fantasy options" because after Smith, there really aren't any. Where Detroit's RB will benefit is in the receiving game, as the Packers will likely lead and Smith will not receive a lot of carries. On the season, Smith has 33 recepitons for 321 yards and a TD; 104 yards and the TD came last week against the Browns. Smith isn't a great fantasy option, but I wouldn't label him a dud either. Week 12 forecast: 40 rush yards, 0 TDs; 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Oakland @ Dallas

Zach Miller - Miller's presence against Cincinnati helped the Raiders pull off the unthinkable upset. As a result, he's the only viable fantasy option in this game versus the Cowboys. While Bruce Gradkowski is playing well (compared to JaMarcus Russell), there's no Raider worth starting on Turkey Day other than Miller. The Raiders TE is a good fantasy option, and gets his credit where credit is due. Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Tony Romo - The Raiders defense held the Bengals to just 348 total yards (61 of those coming on one run), and Carson Palmer had just 207 pass yards with 1 INT and 0 PaTDs (2 rushing TDs). The Raiders defense certainly isn't a terrible one, and can likely keep Romo in check. It's hard to say "bench Romo", but bench Romo. The Cowboys will win this game in snoozing fashion, running hard and playing solid defense. Week 12 forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

Marion Barber - The Dallas RB hasn't scored since week 8, so expect that streak to come to a hault Thursday. Barber had 20 carries for 99 yards against Washington and more importantly, looked healthy. The Cowboys should grind out a power perfromance in order to beat the Raiders, and Barber will be a big factor in that area. I really like Barber's odds of having 2 TDs, and I really like his chances at topping 100. Week 12 forecast: 110 rush yards, 2 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards

Felix Jones - Jones should prove to be quite a punch in the Dallas RB combo, and is a borderline fantasy start. It's hard to say how well he will do, but his potential is there. He's still got speed (the knee brace is off), and the Raiders will likely be seeing Jones get 10-15 touches. It's hard to recommend starting Jones, and I can almost feel a big game coming. It's your call, but I think "bench him" is the better option. Week 12 forecast: 60 rush yards, 0 TDs; 1 catch, 25 yards

Miles Austin - The Cowboys WR hasn't score a TD in two games, and I'll put money down that says he won't score against the Raiders. Oakland's secondary will be able to keep Austin in check for most of the game, as he nor any of the Dallas WRs are serious fantasy threats in this game. If Jason Witten ends up missing the game, Austin and the rest of Dallas receiving crew's chance go up a bit in terms of fantasy production. Week 12 forecast: 3 catches, 55 yards, 0 TDs

Jason Witten - Now here's a receiving threat you should consider starting. The big TE is looking for some action, and I think he gets plenty against the Raiders. Witten hasn't scored a TD since week 2, but that will come to an end as Romo will find Witten in the red zone for six. UPDATE: Witten is a game-time decision with a foot injury, perhaps Martellus Bennett can be stashed in case of emergency purposes.. Week 12 forecast: 3 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD (if he plays)

Dallas Team DEF - Any time a team is facing Oakland, it's worth considering a spot in your starting lineup for. The Cowboys defense should provide a good pass rush and create a few turnovers in what likely will be a low scoring contest. If it ends up a high scoring affair, it likely won't be on Oakland's side of the billionare's scoreboard. Start the Cowboys unit, because it should give you a reason to actually watch this snooze fest. Week 12 forecast: 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 INTs

New York @ Denver

Brandon Marshall - The Broncos are a team desperately looking to get off a 4-game skid, and Brandon Marshall gives them a good chance at making the Giants game competitive. Marshall was held to just 3 catches for 26 yards against San Diego; the last time Denver's WR was held to just 3 catches in a game, he responded by scoring 4 TDs in the 3 games that followed. Marshall is a good turkey day delight, even if the Broncos get smashed into sweet potato pie. Week 12 forecast: 8 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD

Kyle Orton - Orton replaced Chris Simms in Sunday's loss to the Chargers, and played decent in his return. It's likely that Orton will be starting against the Giants, but it's best to sit him out of this contest. While Marshall is a good option, Orton isn't reliable from a fantasy perspective to start. Week 12 forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

Knowshon Moreno - The Giants have allowed 14 rush TDs on the season, making Moreno an ok option in most leagues. He's a borderline option as a RB2 in 10-12 man leagues, but has better value as a flex in a pinch. New York typically doesn't give up a lot of yards on the ground, ranked 11th in the NFL in rush ypg. Week 12 forecast: 65 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 15 yards

Eli Manning - After a great start to 2009, Manning cooled off during the Giants own four game losing streak. Last week, he heated back up throwing for 384 yards and 3 PaTDs. The Broncos do have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the NFL, but Manning is still worth starting in prime time on Thursday Night. Week 12 forecast: 245 pass yards, 3 PaTDs, 1 INT

Steve Smith - Smith hasn't had 100 yards receiving since week 4, and I expect the Broncos to keep his yardage in check this week. However, keeping Smith out of the end zone may prove to be difficult, and Smith makes a good WR3 play in leagues that have large starting lineups, and a WR2 in PPR leagues. Week 12 forecast: 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD

Mario Manningham - The former Wolverine is fresh off a 126 yard performance against Atlanta. Look for Manningham to have decent yardage total, and a TD. He makes a fairly good start in any size league this week, mainly because of his big play ability (15.4 ypr on the season). Week 12 forecast: 5 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Hakeem Nicks - While Nicks should find the end zone, I'm not quite sure his yardage is going to warrant a starting position in your lineup. Nicks, like Manningham, has the big play ability (16.9 ypr), but is targetted less often. If you're just looking for a TD, give Nicks the nod. Week 12 forecast: 2 catches, 35 yards, 1 TD

Kevin Boss - With no more TDs to go around, it will be a wise move to leave Boss on the bench this Thursday. The Giants TE has been scoring "like a Boss" the past three weeks, totalling 4 TDs. However, the Denver defense has done quite well defending TEs this season, so bench him. Week 12 forecast: 4 catches, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs has been a fantasy dud for the better part of 2009, and suffered a leg injury against the Falcons. He's likely to play this week, but the Broncos have allowed just 6 rush TDs on the season. I don't think Jacobs is a tremendous option, but he may surprise. I'm still going to request his benching though. Week 12 forecast: 55 rush yards, 0 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards

Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw is still getting his touches despite the broken bone in his foot. He also shed his protective boot in last week's practices leading up to the Falcons game. At this point, Bradshaw is likely to miss the game in Denver, so stash him on your bench.. Week 12 forecast: Injured.

Final Comment

I'm going to take this time to predict the outcomes in each game, giving myself another opportunity to be dead wrong come Turkey Day. I'll take the Packers to handle the Lions, 45-20; The Cowboys to beat the Raiders, 24-10; and the Giants to overcome the Broncos, 27-14. I'll be back on Saturday with the regular edition for Week 12, including the sit/start forecasts. Until then, everyone please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving, and don't trample anyone on Black Friday.

Week 11 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Packers

Florida Danny — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:00:12 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: I totally forgot to mention when I laid out the new schedule last week that I'll be posting a matchup review article every Tuesday. So, basically, my posting schedule will have you getting sick of me in no time. Just wanted to warn you.

Welcome to the first installment of my weekly matchup review articles in 2009. As I said last week, the format of these posts should be familiar to you if you were around last season. If not, the basic idea of this post is to look back at Sunday's (or Thursday's or Monday's) game, and see how the 49ers did in each of the key matchups I identified prior to the game.

Despite what some might think, I'm not an insider at Football Outsiders (FO), so I don't have access to the exact equation for DVOA or any of their other stats. Therefore, in my matchup review, I won't be saying, "Here's what DVOA said going into the game, and here's their actual DVOA for this matchup during the game." Instead, I simply look back at the play-by-play, aggregate the raw numbers for each matchup, consider the specific game situations that might have affected the numbers, and offer a quasi-objective evaluation of the Niners' performance in the matchups.

So, with the aims and methods revealed, it's time to review the matchups.

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE ON 3RD AND LONG

For the moment, I'm going to ignore Team Matchup #1 (i.e., SF OFF's in-season trend vs. GB DEF's in-season trend) because I'll actually be able to give you the DVOA stats on that one once FO posts them this afternoon. So instead, I'll begin with Team Matchup #2. As you'll recall (See here if you don't), my bottom line about Team Matchup #2 was that the 49ers' OFF needed to perform a lot better than expected on 3rd & long because (a) they've sucked at it this season, and (b) GB's DEF has been awesome at it. Specifically, GB's DEF had a mind-blowing 119.3% DVOA advantage going into the game. So how did the Niners do? Based on the play-by-play, below is a table showing the game time, field position, play, and result of every 3rd & long the 49ers' OFF faced on Sunday (successful plays are in bold):

Distance	Yardline	Quarter	Time Left	Score	Type of Play	Direction	Play	Yards
7	SF 19	1	1:43	SF 3 - GB 6	Pass	NA	Smith sacked	-2
7	SF 23	2	11:25	SF 3 - GB 6	Pass	Short Right	Incomplete to Bruce	0
19	SF11	2	8:08	SF 3 - GB 13	Pass	Short Right	Complete to Crabtree	6
9	SF 20	2	2:00	SF 3 - GB 20	Pass	Short Left	Complete to Davis	4
10	GB 36	3	12:12	SF 3 - GB 23	Pass	Short Left	Complete to Hill	8
20	GB 38	3	7:35	SF 3 - GB 23	Pass	Deep Left	Complete to Crabtree	38TD
8	SF 14	3	2:29	SF 10 - GB 23	Pass	Short Right	Incomplete to Davis	0
10	GB 24	4	10:42	SF 10 - GB 30	Pass	Deep Middle	Complete to Davis	24TD

After the jump, I'll discuss why this table means one of two people needs a stern talking-to, and I'll review the rest of the matchups...

Just to remind you, a 3rd-down play is only considered successful if it achieves a 1st down. For this reason, 3rd & long plays tend to be particularly unsuccessful, so the 49ers' 25% success rate isn't actually all that bad. And given that they scored 2 TDs on 3rd & long, I'd say their performance in this matchup was, on the surface, better than expected. However, there are two below-the-suface patterns in the table that help uncover why their success in this matchup didn't end up helping the 49ers actually win the game.

First, you'll notice that both successful plays came in the 2nd half while losing by 20 points. As Mike Singletary hinted at during his Monday press conference, and contrary to Brian "I can't bring myself to say Michael Crabtree didn't drop it, no matter what the video evidence shows" Billick's assertion during the game, it's simply easier to have success on OFF while on the wrong side of a 2nd-half blowout than it is otherwise. Maybe, as Billick pointed out, GB wasn't playing a true prevent DEF at the time, but, I'm sorry, only the very best teams/players maintain high motivation/focus when they have that big of a lead that late in the game (See 2007 Week 8: Patriots 52, Redskins 7). Packer coaches may not have been calling passive defensive formations, but that doesn't mean Packer players weren't playing passive defense. So, given the score and game time when the 2 TDs occurred, I have to discount their impact on the overall evaluation. Therefore, the Niner OFF's grade on 3rd & long goes from something like a C to a D; still better than expected, but not a lot better. And, as I said in the preview, they needed to play a lot better than expected on 3rd & long in order to have a good chance of winning the game.

The second devil in the details is something of a pet peeve for me. Namely, their only 2 successful plays coincided with the only 2 times Alex Smith actually threw a 3rd & long pass beyond the first down marker: all 6 failures were to "short" routes, whereas the 2 successes were to "deep" routes. Now, I'm not going to affix 100% of the blame on Jimmy Raye for this. He could easily be calling 3rd & long plays with medium-to-deep primary receivers, only to have Smith - for whatever reason - check down to shorter secondary receivers when actually executing the play. Only people with access to the play calls, a candid Alex Smith, and the coach's game film -- people otherwise known as members of the 49ers roster and coaching staff - would know exactly on whom the blame lays. Nevertheless, blaming people isn't going to change anything. What matters most is that the 2009 49ers OFF is currently burdened with either (a) an offensive coordinator who has a tendency to call for short routes on 3rd & long, or (b) a QB who has a tendency to throw short passes on 3rd & long. So either one, or both, have to be dealt with going forward. Otherwise, we'll be seeing a lot more of this ineptitude on 3rd & long.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER

Only two words necessary here: Nailed it! OK, one self-aggrandizing statement from me isn't fair to you, so I'll actually go to the trouble of discussing something that honestly requires no more discussion than those two words.

By now, you probably already know the overall 1st quarter stats: 54 rushing yards, 0 passing yards, 1 sack allowed for -2 yards. Here are some more advanced stats for you:

6.5 yards per play including Frank Gore's 42-yard run, 1.7 yards per play omitting Gore's run
2 successful plays from scrimmage, 6 unsuccessful plays
Time of possession: 3 minutes, 37 seconds
Smith's QB rating for the 1st quarter: 39.6

All in all, that's not playing OFF in a way that overcomes your matchup disadvantage. Yeah, you can say that the score was only 6-3 Packers at the end of the 1st quarter, and that Gore's run should mean more than what I'm allowing, but neither of these things overshadows the clear slow-starting trend for the Niner OFF. Neither can overshadow the fact that the 49ers are averaging only 3.6 points per game in the 1st quarter, and have scored 0 points in the 1st quarter - that would be 4 times - more often than they've scored 7 or more - that would be 3 times.

I've said it before and I'll say it until I'm six feet under. Good teams regularly take an early lead on their opponents, and early leads on the road are huge. Of course, you might say, "Well, it's not like the Niners aren't trying to score in the 1st quarter." On the contrary, I'd actually say they are, in fact, not trying as hard as they should be to score in the 1st quarter. Don't believe me? Here is the play selection for the 1st quarter against GB: pass short right, run up the middle, run up the middle, end around, run up the middle, run up the middle, pass short right, pass play but sacked.

Here's the problem, fellow Niner fans. Our beloved team seems to have a game strategy that's in diametric opposition to game theory, statistical research, and Bill Walsh, all of which suggest that passing the ball is more successful than running the ball, and therefore that teams should pass the ball early to get a lead, but then run the ball late to preserve the lead. Want a perfect example of this utterly-obvious, yet often-ignored winning strategy? Look no further than Sunday's opponent.

The Packers threw the ball on 2 of their first 3 plays, and on 10 of their first 17 plays in the 1st quarter; a slight skew towards passing the ball resulted in a 3-point lead at the end of the 1st. Did they start running it to preserve the lead at that point? Quite the opposite: a Patriots-esque 24 of GB's 26 plays from scrimmage in the 2nd quarter were passes, with the 24 passes coming from one 14-consecutive-passes stretch and another 10-consecutive-passes stretch to end the half. What happened? A 3-point lead ballooned to a 20-point lead in a matter of 15 minutes.

So, to recap, 34 of GB's 45 plays in the 1st half were passes (they had 2 running plays to finish the 1st quarter that I didn't mention above), and they ended up with a 20-point lead going into the locker room. Meanwhile, throughout the 2nd quarter, the Niners continued to run up the middle and throw short passes, which led to a 20-point halftime deficit. Hopefully, you get the idea: pass early to take a lead.

Now for the endgame. In the 3rd quarter, 6 of GB's 14 plays were runs; not run-heavy, but definitely less pass-heavy than their 1st half imbalance. And in the 4th quarter, low and behold 9 of the Packers' 15 non-kneel-down plays were runs. Putting these together, GB's play selection during the 2nd half was 52% run, as compared to their 1st-half play selection, which was 76% pass.

I use the Packers as an example, not to distort general evidence by citing an exceptional anecdote, but rather because the anecdote is fresh in our memories and summarily fits the general evidence. The fact of the matter is that, as long as the 49ers come out running the ball up the middle and throwing short passes in the 1st half, they're not going to build the kind of early lead that a running back like Gore and a DEF like theirs are perfectly suited to preserve. Furthermore, as the Packers example shows, a 3-point lead in the 1st quarter does not represent grounds to shift into lead-preserving, run-baby-run mode. Look no further than to their losses against the Vikings, Titans, and Colts to see how much a slim first-half lead is not a lead at all.

My point here is that, rather than starting each game with a series of up-the-middle runs and short passes, the 49ers need to instead pass the ball frequently during the first half, and continue to pass - preferably down the field - until they've built a comfortable lead. Then, holding a comfortable lead in the 2nd half, that's when Gore should become the focal point of the offense. Unfortunately, Jimmy Raye, and I suppose Mike Singletary, seem to think winning means doing the opposite. Unlike the 49ers' problems on 3rd & long, I do blame Raye/Singletary 100% for this one because they're the ones that put in the game plan and author the 15-play script. I'm sorry, but, when the script isn't working, it's time to start editing on the fly. A screenplay with a lot of early action, climaxing in a massive butt-kicking, and ending with an uneventful dénouement is what the studio execs are looking for.

TEAM MATCHUP # 4: SF OFFENSIVE LINE VS. GB DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 ON UP-THE-MIDDLE RUNS

In detailing this disadvantage for the 49ers' OL in their matchup with the Packers' defensive front 7, I cited each unit's Stuffed Rate and Up-The-Middle ALY. So how did the Niners' OL fare on Sunday in these two areas?

Well, in terms of having their runs stopped for zero or negative yardage, SF's OL had 2 such plays on 8 RB carries, for a Stuffed Rate of 25%, which nailed the expected rate right on the nose (Aside: Where's the dude who says stats can't predict anything?). Therefore, on this stat, we'd have to say the OL didn't overcome its disadvantage.

With respect to C/G ALY, the Niners' OL contributed 13 unadjusted line yards on 5 RB carries, good for a magical average of 2.6 unadjusted line yards per carry. Of course, they were going against the 8th-best defensive front 7 in the NFL, so we can kind of adjust this upward in our minds to something around 3.0 to 3.5. Oh wait, that hits the expected number on the nose again (Aside: C'mon, show yourself Mr. Stats Naysayer!). So again, the OL didn't overcome it's disadvantage.

All in all, my overall view on this matchup is that the 49ers' OL didn't overperform they way that they needed to going into the game, but the game played out in such a manner that they really didn't need to overperform in the first place. Indeed, when a team only has 8 RB carries in a game, it's kind of obvious that the run-blocking performance of their OL was not a major factor in the result of that game.

TEAM MATCHUP # 5: SF DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 VS. GB OFFENSIVE LINE ON LEFT-SIDE RUNS

In the preview post, my bottom line for this matchup was that the 49ers had a general advantage when GB runs to the left side of their formation, but especially when they run to the outside left (GB OL ALY = 2.87 yards per RB carry; SF defensive front 7 ALY = 2.71 yards per carry).

In Sunday's game, the defensive front 7's Unadjusted ALY on left-side runs was 2.62 yards overall, and their Unadjusted ALY on GB runs to the outside left was 2.43 yards per RB carry. Given that I'm not privy to FO's opponent adjustments, we just have to wing it here, and say that we probably need to adjust these raw numbers upward just a little because the Packers' OL was near the bottom of the league on such runs going into the game. Doing so leads to the conclusion that the Niners', once again, played about as well as expected in the left-end/left-side run-stopping matchup.

Unfortunately, like the 3rd & long matchup, left-end run-stopping on Sunday was another case of the Niners' devil being in the details. Specifically, GB's two longest RB carries during the game were both on runs to the outside left, and they both came at the most inopportune times. The first was a 26-yard carry by Ryan Grant on his first outside-left run of the game, and the second was a back-breaking 21-yard Grant carry with 2:51 left in the game, which allowed GB to salt away the game for all intents and purposes. So basically, the Niners' defensive front 7 took a favorable matchup, and turned it into a non-trivial contributor to the loss. On this week of Thanksgiving, a good analogy for the Niners performance in this matchup is screwing up the turkey. After 57 minutes in the oven, the 49ers had a beautiful, juicy bird, but those last 3 minutes of cooking time ended up turning it into bad eats, and having their fans reaching for the sweet potato casserole.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. GB PASS DEF

Going into the game, I wanted to see whether the Niners' OFF would be able to "impose its will" in the passing game by getting the ball to Vernon Davis despite GB's prowess when it comes to defending TEs. Of course, just looking at the stat line (12 targets, 9 yards per target, 18 yards per catch, 3 FDs, 1 TD), you'd have to say VD exceeded expectations overall. However, going inside the numbers, you realize that SF's utilization of VD did not resemble "imposing its will" in the slightest. That's because 11 of VD's 12 targets came during the 2nd half. Furthermore, VD did not have a pass thrown his way until there were 2 minutes left in the 1st half. In other words, SF's OFF basically ignored VD for the first 28 minutes of game time.

I'm not going to beat the proverbial dead horse here, but this is not winning football. Not even attempting to get the ball to a player who's #3 among TEs in targets for nearly the entire first half is an epic fail from a strategic standpoint; an epic fail that compounds the OFF's previously described epic fail with respect to 1st-half passing.

The sickening thing is that, once they started throwing the ball to VD in the 2nd half, he was incredibly productive. To me, that's the most frustrating part of watching this OFF. It's like they stubbornly implement their short pass and up-the-middle run game plan until they're (un)comfortably behind in the game, then the light comes on and they play efficient NFL OFF, only to revert back to their Hostlerian game plan to start the following game. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Despite what Mike "aw shucks, I don't know what you're talking about" Singletary might be saying during his Monday press conferences, I have to believe that the coaching staff notices this pattern. It goes without saying that they know more about football than I (or any other sentient Niner fan) do. So the question that needs to be asked is not, "Mike, why don't you use the spread more?" Rather, it's, "Mike, why do you play OFF backwards?" or, "Mike, why does Jimmy Raye only call an NFL-caliber offense when the score forces him to?" I hate to break the news to Mike, but it's not only the players who don't show up for all 60 minutes of the game; it's also the aptly named "offensive" coaching staff. Matt Barrows seems to agree with me on this point.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: DONALD DRIVER VS. SF PASS DEF

I said going into the game that SF's pass DEF needed to either prevent Driver's catches from hurting them in crucial situations or prevent him from catching the ball in the first place. His stat line for the game (8 targets, 5 yards per target, 8 yards per catch, 2 FDs, 0 TDs) suggests they succeeded in limiting the damage. What makes their performance against Driver even better was that none of his targets came on 3rd down or in the red zone. In other words, they played a perfect game when it came to preventing Driver from touching the ball in crucial situations.

Unfortunately, stopping Driver doesn't mean much when you decide not to cover his counterpart, Greg Jennings, in general, but specifically in crucial situations. Overall, Jennings had 7 targets, for 18 yards per target, 25.2 yards per catch, 3 FDs, and 1 TD. That's pretty bad pass DEF from the Niners against an opponent's #1 WR. However, what's worse is that 4 of Jennings' 7 targets came on 3rd down, with these targets resulting in 3 catches for 3 FDs. So, in the end, their perfect performance against Driver was offset by their nearly (im)perfect performance against Jennings.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on their performance during Sunday's game, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Packers:

The OFF didn't overcome their disadvantage on 3rd & long because they didn't actually throw the ball beyond the 1st-down marker until the game was basically out of reach.
Their OFF once again came out of the locker room with a Hostlerian play-calling philosophy during the 1st quarter.
When it actually mattered, the defensive front 7 failed to exploit their advantage on GB runs to the outside left.
The OFF didn't throw the ball to their high-target TE during the first 28 minutes of the game.
Their pass DEF offset a highly efficient performance against Driver with a highly inefficient performance against Jennings.

Coming up tomorrow, an evaluation of how the Niners played against the Packers according to Singletary's Formula for Success.

*DVOA and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following matchup performances was the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT reason for the 49ers' loss to the Packers on Sunday?

Offensive inefficiency on 3rd & long when the game wasn't a blowout

38 votes

Offensive inefficiency in the 1st quarter

123 votes

Defensive inefficiency on runs to GB's left when the game wasn't a blowout

41 votes

Failing to "impose its will" with VD until the game was a blowout

21 votes

Failing against Jennings while succeeding against Driver

11 votes

234 votes | Poll has closed

Week 11 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Packers

Florida Danny — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:00:16 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry about this being a day late. Work was a bear yesterday. Look on the bright side. What you read here will be even fresher in your mind when you watch the game tomorrow.

For those of you who were on Niners Nation last season, you'll find this post - and the weekly ones that follow - very familiar. For those of you who weren't, this weekly matchup post was my main contribution to the site in 2008 (if you're a nerd and/or troll and/or stalker, you can find the archived 2008 articles here). Basically, the way it works is that each week I look at how the 49ers's strengths and weaknesses compare to their oppenents' strengths and weaknesses. However, unlike the more subjective key-matchups-style posts you see around the internet and on TV, my matchup analyses are strictly from an objective, statistical perspective (shocking, I know!)

The purpose of these matchup posts isn't so much to predict the game outcomes as much as it is to focus your attention during each game on a select group of important, although likely overlooked, situations. For instance, I bet that in almost no game previews will you be reading or hearing about how the 49ers' OL is ranked 29th when blocking in the OFF's favorite run direction (i.e., up the middle), whereas the Packers' DL is ranked 8th when defending such runs. Obviously, that's kind of important to know when you consider the 49ers run the ball up the middle 73% of the time! Think that matchup is going to have an impact on the game? Um...duh!

Now, obviously, I can't present every single matchup for which DVOA ratings exist. You think my other posts are dissertations? If I were to present every DVOA matchup possible, this post would be more like War and Peace than a dissertation. Therefore, I have to pare down the matchups to include only those that I think are most important.

How do I do that? Well, basically, I'm of the view that the primary goals of every team in every game are to (a) do what they're good at, and (b) prevent their opponent from doing what their opponent is good at. Mike Singletary calls this "imposing your will" on the opponent, and it's something that, from my sport psychology background, I whole-heartedly believe. So, to me, the key matchups are the ones that involve each team's strengths, and the most important matchups of all involve situations in which one team's strengths are matched up against their opponents' weaknesses. These strength vs. weakness matchups are the ones I'll be presenting in this post, and the ones that will follow for the remainder of the season.

After the jump, it's the key matchups, and I don't mean the "Key Matchups," i.e., how VD's pocket square "matches up" with his fuchsia socks...

TEAM MATCHUP # 1: GENERAL TEAM TRENDS

One good thing to look at before every game is how each team has been playing lately. As this relates to the 49ers and Packers, the trajectories of their respective seasons have actually been quite similar. There's one matchup, however, in which the two teams are going in opposite directions. Here's a chart showing the game-by-game DVOA trend for two units that will be opposing each other on the field this Sunday:

FYI...the Niners' OFF DVOA trend uses the left axis, while the Packers' DEF DVOA trend uses the right axis. As you can see from the chart, the GB DEF is currently getting more efficient, whereas the SF OFF is getting less efficient. Obviously, this is really just showing that the Niners' OFF couldn't do diddly against CHI's DEF in Week 10, whereas the Packers' DEF shut down a potent DAL offense. Still, it's not a trivial matter. GB's DEF will likely come down to earth somewhat, but they'd have to crash with a serious thud for that decline to have a meaningful impact on the SF OFF, which has a long way to dig out of its own grave.

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE ON 3RD AND LONG

There's no doubt that teams don't want to get themselves in 3rd-and-long situations when they're on OFF. However, the hope is that, if they are in such situations, they either (a) are actually pretty good at converting the 1st down, or (b) find themselves playing against a DEF that sucks on 3rd and long.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, their 3rd-and-long matchup with the Packers looks pretty hopeless on both accounts. In terms of whether the 49ers's OFF is good on 3rd and long, they're not: they rank 28th in the NFL with a DVOA of -58.2%. In terms of whether the Packers' DEF is bad on 3rd and long, they're not: they rank 4th, with a DVOA of -61.1%.

The underlying problem for the 49ers in their 3rd-and-long matchup this week is that 3rd and long is a passing-heavy situation, and 3rd-down passing doesn't present a favorable matchup either. Specifically, SF has the 25th-ranked 3rd-Down Pass OFF DVOA (-11.3%), whereas GB has the 2nd-best 3rd-Down Pass DEF DVOA (-38.5%). So, the moral of the story here is that, when you're watching the game on Sunday, pay attention to how often the Niners' OFF ends up in 3rd and long. Not often = good. Often = bad.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER

As I've been pointing out all season, the Niners' OFF is not a good unit coming out of the locker room. Whether due to an inept game plan, a lack of motivation, or still thinking about who won the pregame fashion contest (probably VD), the SF OFF can't seem to get an early lead on the competition. In some games (e.g., vs. STL), this doesn't end up hurting them; but in others (e.g., @ HOU), it puts them in an insurmountable hole.

If they were to pick a week to finally play well in the 1st quarter, let's hope this week is it because their matchup with the Packers is - to put it kindly - a tad unfavorable. Specifically, the 49ers' 1st-Quarter OFF DVOA is an atrocious -43.7%, which ranks them 30th in the league. In contrast, the Packers' 1st-Quarter DEF DVOA is a stout -17.2%, good for 5th-best in the NFL. So, when you watch the game on Sunday, pay attention to how the Niners' OFF fares in the 1st quarter. Good = great; OK = good; Bad = click below:

(hat-tip: 49er16)

TEAM MATCHUP # 4: SF OFFENSIVE LINE VS. GB DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 ON UP-THE-MIDDLE RUNS

By now, you're well aware that the Niners' OL sucks. However, as it relates to the GB game, it's not so much that they suck as it is the particular situations and run directions in which they suck. That's because, although their overall matchup against GB's defensive front 7 is unfavorable, the devil is actually in the details. Here's a chart showing stats for the two areas in which the 49ers must overcome their disadvantage to have any kind of shot at looking like an NFL offense this weekend (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Unit	Stuffed %	Rank	C/G ALY	Rank
SF OL	25%	31	3.25	29
GB DL	26%	3	3.60	8

As you'll recall, Stuffed % tells you how often a team's running plays end up with 0 yards or fewer. Therefore, the table shows that Niner RBs end up with zero or negative yardage on 25% of their carries, whereas the Packers' defensive front 7 stops opposing RBs for zero or negative yards on 26% of their carries. You think you've seen a lot of 49er runs for no gain this season? Just wait until Sunday. The SF OL must overcome this disadvantage in order to run the ball well this weekend.

What makes the OL's matchup a double-whammy is that all of those 0-yard runs we've seen this season have been of the up-the-middle variety, which is exactly the run direction in which (a) the 49ers' OFF is a frequent visitor, and (b) the Packers' DEF considers a no trespassing zone. Indeed, an unbelievable 73% of Niner running plays go up the middle, which ties them with the Jaguars for #1 in the NFL. And the next-highest frequency? That would be the offensive juggernaut known as the Cleveland Browns (69%). After the Big 3, only 2 other teams even reach the 60% threshold when it comes to being stuck in the middle (Patriots = 62% & Buccaneers = 61%).

So I think my point here is pretty clear. The Niners' OFF loves running the ball up the middle even though they suck at it, which leads to a lot of carries for zero or negative yardage. Meanwhile, the Packers' defensive front 7 is great at stopping runs up the middle and preventing the RB from getting back to the line of scrimmage. This is not a good combination for Jimmy Raye's run offense philosophy; nor is it a good combination for the OL's (lack of) blocking prowess.

TEAM MATCHUP # 5: SF DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 VS. GB OFFENSIVE LINE ON LEFT-SIDE RUNS

Up until now, all of the strength vs. weakness matchups have been unfavorable to the 49ers. So, here's a favorable matchup to lift your spirits.

It turns out that the GB OFF runs the ball a lot to the outside left side of their formation. It also turns out, thankfully, that the Packers' OL sucks at blocking on runs to the outside left and the 49ers' defensive front 7 is great at stopping such runs. Specifically, GB's OL has a 30th-ranked 2.71-ypc ALY blocking to the outside left, while SF's defensive front 7 has an ALY in that direction that's ranked 6th in the NFL (2.87 ypc).

Of course, it's a little more difficult for a defensive front 7 to "impose its will" in a specific direction. It's not like (a) the Packers are unaware that SF stops left-end runs really well; or (b) the 49ers can force the Packers - in any meaningfuly way - to run towards left end. Nevertheless, the fact of the matter is that GB has run the ball frequently in that direction during their first 9 games. If you're still not satisfied, though, it's also important to point out that the matchup is pretty much the same on GB runs behind LT. Specifically, GB runs the ball 15% of the time - actually 1 of the 10 highest frequencies in the NFL - in that direction, GB's OL doesn't block well in that direction (LE ALY = 3.44 ypc, 23rd), and SF's defensive front 7 stops runs really well in that direction (LE ALY = 3.48 ypc, 6th).

So, it really seems like the Niners' defensive front 7 has an advantage when GB runs to the left side of the formation. Let's hope they choose to run there as often as they have in their previous 9 games.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. GB PASS DEF

As most of you probably know, VD is ranked 3rd among TEs in targets: Dallas Clark has been targeted by Peyton Manning 78 times, Antonio Gates has been targeted by Philip Rivers 72 times, and VD has been targeted by "SF QB" 71 times. So getting VD the ball is kind of important for the Niners' OFF. The only problem is that, according to DVOA, the Packers' DEF is the 3rd-best unit at stopping TEs. Therefore, it'll be interesting to see how well the Niners' OFF can "impose its will" on GB's DEF by getting VD the ball in crucial game situations.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: DONALD DRIVER VS. SF PASS DEF

Although Greg Jennings is technically GB's #1 WR, Donald Driver has actually been the better option this season -- much to my fantasy team's dismay. Driver's DVOA of 23.7% ranks him 13th among WRs, whereas Jennings' -0.6% DVOA ranks him 38th. Because DVOA is a measure of efficiency, and because Driver and Jennings get thrown the ball equally frequently (Driver targets = 65; Jennings targets = 68), Driver is more dangerous for the 49ers because his targets and catches have been more productive in crucial game situations. With that said, SF might just be the team to slow him down: their -33.9% DVOA against #2 WRs is good for 3rd-best in the league. So when you watch the game on Sunday, pay attention to how well the Niners' pass DEF (a) prevents Driver from being the target of a pass, and (b) prevents Driver from being productive when he is the target of a pass.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Their OFF must play a lot more efficiently than they have lately, and GB's DEF must play a lot less efficiently than they did in Week 10.
Their OFF must either play more efficiently than expected on 3rd & Long situations or avoid 3rd & long situations altogether.
Their OFF must come out strong in the 1st quarter.
Their OL must block better than expected on runs up the middle.
Their defensive front 7 must play as efficiently as expected when GB runs to the left.
VD must overcome his matchup disadvantage with GB's pass defense.
Their pass defense must either prevent Driver's catches from being productive in crucial situations or prevent him from catching the ball altogether.

Remember, my new posting schedule begins next week. First up on Wednesday is a post evaluating how the Niners played against the Packers according to Singletary's Formula for Success.

*DVOA and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT matchup for the 49ers in Sunday's game against the Packers?

SF offense vs. GB defense on 3rd & long

106 votes

SF offense vs. GB defense in the 1st quarter

23 votes

SF OL vs. GB front 7 on SF runs up the middle

92 votes

SF front 7 vs. GB OL on GB runs to the left

10 votes

Vernon Davis vs. GB pass defense

29 votes

SF pass defense vs. Donald Driver

26 votes

286 votes | Poll has closed

49ers-Packers: 5 questions with Acme Packing Company

Fooch — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:30:12 -0000

The 49ers and Packers will be squaring off in a couple days in a battle of two teams battling for a playoff spot. The 49ers have a better shot than the Packers at winning their division, but it doesn't make this game any less important. Acme Packing Company is the SB Nation Packers blog, and Brandon runs things over there. Big thanks to Brandon for taking a few minutes to answer some of our questions.

Fooch: The Packers lead the league in sacks allowed. Can you explain this problem and how (or even if) the Packers are working to solve it?

APC: The offensive tackles have been the problem. Veteran LT Chad Clifton has only played about half the snaps, and he's not as good as he was a couple years ago. Unfortunately his replacements, either LG Daryn Colledge has slid over or rookie OL T.J. Lang, have been beaten badly. Lang has shown some promise, and played well last week as the starting right tackle, which he may do again this week, but he's still playing like a rookie. RT Allen Barbre started the first 7 games, but he's currently buried deep on the bench. The Packers recently resigned veteran RT Mark Tauscher, who tore his ACL last December, but he reinjured that same knee. He could be back as soon as next week. Once Clifton is finally over the bad ankle that's been bothering him this season, and Tauscher returns, the pass protection should improve.

Fooch: The Packers are fourth in the league in defensive interceptions, thanks in large part to Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Some folks have come over to NN and said Woodson would likely cover Vernon Davis. Is that accurate, and if so, do you know the best ways for teams to beat the Packers secondary?

APC: Woodson doesn't play like a conventional corner. While Harris will always lineup opposite the outside receiver, Woodson is often in the slot. Against the Cowboys, Woodson lined up mostly against Jason Witten, and the Packers played a lot of nickel. But that alignment was unusual for them and probably designed specifically for Witten. I expect they'll cover Davis with a linebacker or safety. However their best LB in pass coverage is Brandon Chillar, who hasn't played at all the last two weeks due to a broken hand. He can play with a cast, and he was active last week, but they didn't use him.

Fooch: How good (or not) exactly are the Packers? The two best teams they've beaten are Dallas and Chicago, both of whom have big flaws (not to say the 49ers have been any better). So what do you make of this Packers team 9 games in?

APC: The Packers are playing outstanding in a lot of areas. They've outscored their opponents by 53 points, outgained them by 755 yards, and are +13 in turnovers. Their run defense and pass defense have been outstanding, although they've had trouble in pass coverage in the red zone. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating over 100, and RB Ryan Grant is at 4.2 yards/carry with only 1 fumble and on pace for over 1200 yards. But where the team is bad, they are really bad. They lead the league in penalties, allowed 41 sacks, and have worst special teams unit in the NFL. They are getting killed in what Mike Tanier called "Hidden Yards".

Fooch: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are the big names among the receivers for outsiders. Is there someone else who the 49ers should pay close attention to among their receivers/tight ends?

APC: Jennings is playing through a bruised knee, but he didn't make it on the injury report this week. The other 3 players who have been dangerous are: TE Jermichael Finley, who is 6'5" and fast, but has missed the last 3 games with a knee/shin injury; TE Spencer Havner, who is a converted practice squad LB who's become Rodgers' favorite target in the red zone with 4 TDs in the last 4 weeks; and WR James Jones, who only has 14 receptions on the season, but 3 TDs and 3 receptions over 40 yards.

Fooch: Ryan Grant seems to be flying well under the radar, even as he puts up some quality rushing totals. I honestly don't know enough about Grant to analyze his game. What kind of running back is he (power back, between the tackles but requiring a solid OL, better outside the tackles, etc.)?

APC: Grant is big and tall, he's listed at 6'1", and he seems to be the type of back Mike McCarthy prefers. When McCarthy was the 49ers OC back in 2005, he stuck with 6'1" Kevan Barlow, so I often compare Grant to Barlow when people wondered why he stuck with Grant last season despite his early troubles. You'll see Grant run off tackle, just inside or just outside on either side. They usually run a couple screen passes per game to him. But he doesn't have the big play ability, so I doubt he'll have any carries greater than 10 yards.