SB Nation - Donald Lee

Jermichael Finley: Wide Receiver

Brandon — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:06:29 -0000

A couple days ago I accidentally said WR Patrick Williams is the Green Bay Packers' No. 6 wide receiver. I corrected myself (he's only No. 5), but on second though it might have been a freudian slip. From Tom Silverstein at JSOnline.com:

Over the course of the last four games - all victories - Finley has been the target of more Aaron Rodgers passes than anybody else, including the top four receivers. Finley has been targeted 31 times compared with Greg Jennings' 28, Donald Driver's 26, James Jones' 12 and Jordy Nelson's four...

The gradual shift to a Finley-centric offense clearly has puzzled the team's wide receivers, who are used to being Rodgers' favorite targets...

He lined up all over the field, including in the slot or out wide with three receivers, and continually got favorably matchups on smaller, slower defensive backs.

Finley still does some things like a tight end. He might line up alongside a tackle on a running play, or stop in the backfield when he goes in motion to stay in as an extra blocker. But I usually notice him when he's lined up wide, or running a crossing route, like a wide receiver. When TE Donald Lee or TE Spencer Havner are catching passes, they are usually a check down receiver in the middle or out in the flat. Usually a tight end is drawing a linebacker in coverage, but as Tom Silverstein said, TE Jermichael Finley is often finding himself matched up against defensive backs. Which is what usually happens to a wide receiver.

Tom Silverstein went on to say that WR Greg Jennings and WR James Jones "were careful with their words" which isn't surprising. At least for Jones, he probably doesn't want to admit that Finley has moved ahead of him on the depth chart.

The one thing I'm not sure about is whether this is a good thing. According to Football Outsiders, Finley has been more productive than Jones this season. Moving Finley ahead of Jones is probably an improvement. But I wonder if WR Jordy Nelson would be even better in Finley's role if given the chance?

Extended Recap: Green Bay Packers Defeat Lions 34-12

Brandon — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 06:20:53 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

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I was nervous the entire first quarter while watching the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving. The Lions had a quick 7-0 lead, and the Packer offense had already stalled once before they missed a FG attempt. I was wondering if this was going to be like their last loss in Tampa. But once QB Matthew Stafford threw his first INT, and QB Aaron Rodgers completed a 68 yard pass to WR Donald Driver to end the 1st quarter, I wasn't nervous anymore.

The Lions weren't exactly a big test for the Packers, they beat them in most major categories like points, yards (422 to 272), time of possession (33:59 to 26:01), and turnovers recovered (5 to 2). But I'm not a big believer in tests, or teams having to prove something. I believe in wins against any team they play, as they right now control their own destiny for a wild card playoff spot. And also stay healthy, which is something they did a good job of on Thanksgiving.

The complete play-by-play recap is after the jump.

Packers vs Lions coverage; Packers vs Lions recap; Packers vs Lions boxscore; Pride Of Detroit

Play-by-play from NFL.com:

First Quarter

4-J.Hanson kicks 71 yards from DET 30 to GB -1. 87-J.Nelson to GB 21 for 22 yards (75-T.McBride). FUMBLES (75-T.McBride), RECOVERED by DET-57-J.Dizon at GB 20. 57-J.Dizon to GB 20 for no gain (87-J.Nelson).

And they started the game with a thud. The special teams were awful, committing 4 penalties (1 intentional 4th quarter delay of game), and 2 big kick returns could have even been bigger if not for saving tackles by TE Spencer Havner and K Mason Crosby.

(14:23) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-B.Pettigrew pushed ob at GB 6 for 12 yards (50-A.Hawk).

It was interesting that this was their first pass play. The Lions must have seen something they liked because they threw 13 passes to their tight ends, usually out in the flat. None of them were big plays, but Stafford completed 9 of them, so they were just about as successful as anything they did on offense. Unfortunately this was the last one for rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew. He suffered a season ending knee injury on the play.

(13:07) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 81-C.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Instead of taking advantage of the LBs in coverage against the tight end, the Lions decided to force 12 passes to an obviously hurting WR Calvin Johnson. This was their biggest offensive play of the game, and maybe it gave them false hope that Johnson could have a big game. Instead, it just might have made CB Charles Woodson very angry.

(12:16) 25-R.Grant right tackle to GB 32 for 15 yards (41-W.James).

This was a good run in a game with few good runs. RB Ryan Grant should have had a big game against a weak Lions run defense, but instead he had a poor game (only 3.1 yards/carry). Four days earlier, he was great against an excellent 49ers run defense.

(4:43) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

More lousy special teams. As good as this drive was, the Packers were forced to convert four times on 3rd down and they went 3 for 4. It seemed odd since the Packers weren't taking any shots down field against a defense that was torched 4 days earlier. 10 minutes into the game, down 7-0, and I'll admit I was a little nervous.

(1:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-W.Heller INTERCEPTED by 36-N.Collins at GB 26. 36-N.Collins ran ob at GB 26 for no gain.

The Lions were getting a little something going, moving the ball 30 yards after the missed FG, and FS Nick Collins made a great reaction on the ball. Watch the replay.

(:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 80-D.Driver to DET 7 for 68 yards (25-M.White).

What a way to end the quarter. The Packers were still down 7-0 at this point, but after watching them force an INT and 3 plays later attack the awful Lion secondary, it felt like they had turned the corner.

Second Quarter

(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 86-D.Lee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

That was quite a leap by TE Donald Lee. Watch the replay.

(14:26) 34-K.Smith left tackle to DET 34 for 4 yards (36-N.Collins).

There were a few times in the game when RB Kevin Smith got a cutback lane, and it looked like he could bust out for a big gain. But there was always a Packer there to tackle him, and Smith didn't have a single carry for more than 6 yards. Everyone on defense did their part on run defense.

(8:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 88-J.Finley. GB-88-J.Finley was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on DET-26-L.Delmas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 40.

(8:19) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley to DET 16 for 9 yards (25-M.White). PENALTY on DET-25-M.White, Horse Collar, 8 yards, enforced at DET 16.

It was rough going for TE Jermichael Finley on those two consecutive plays. He took one (two) for the team, and set up a 1st and goal, but they settled for a FG.

(5:28) 34-K.Smith up the middle to DET 44 for -4 yards (90-B.Raji).

(4:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 86-D.Northcutt INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Williams at GB 40. 38-T.Williams pushed ob at GB 46 for 6 yards (86-D.Northcutt).

DE B.J. Raji slipped a tackle and got quickly into the backfield. His tackle set up a 3rd and 5, which was then intercepted by CB Tramon Williams. Two great plays in a row.

(1:03) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

Another good drive ends in a FG (or FG miss). They've been settling for a lot of FGs the past two weeks, but overall they're still about average (scoring a TD about 51% of the time in the red zone). It's a bad trend, but it's hard to call it a problem since the offense is playing so well overall.

(:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 48 for -8 yards (52-C.Matthews).

What would you call that sack by LB Clay Matthews? Tenacious? Watch it here.

Third Quarter

(14:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 80-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DET 38. 21-C.Woodson to DET 38 for no gain (80-B.Johnson). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 14:06.)

He had a sack in the 1st half, but the Woodson show got going early in the 2nd half. The 1st of his 2 INTs.

(13:27) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Lee.

Lee had a TD earlier, but he had been dropping some passes in recent games. I'd been wondering if TE Spencer Havner should be playing ahead of him. This play is another drop, and I'm not sure how he'll be going forward.

(12:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at DET 37 for -6 yards (59-J.Peterson). FUMBLES (59-J.Peterson) [59-J.Peterson], RECOVERED by DET-97-J.Hunter at DET 37. 97-J.Hunter to DET 37 for no gain (71-J.Sitton).

LT Chad Clifton left LB Julian Peterson unblocked, while Clifton blocked no one, and it led to the only sack of the game for the Lions on 4th down. Tom Pelissero goes into more detail about why Clifton's decision to leave Peterson unblocked was more complicated then it seemed, and that Rodgers should have gotten rid of the ball quickly since it was an empty backfield and they left no one in to block on a blitz.

(11:06) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Driver to DET 45 for 45 yards (41-W.James).

(9:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver to DET 31 for 7 yards (23-K.Hobbs).

(6:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-K.Hobbs].

A quick 3-and-out by the defense was somewhat wasted after a 51 yard net punt pinned the Packers down at their 10 yard line. But that didn't matter because WR Donald Driver took over. 59 yards alone on the drive, including the TD reception.

(1:31) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones to DET 21 for 4 yards (41-W.James).

(:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-J.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Earlier this season, I was ready to write WR James Jones off. He only had a couple catches, and it seemed like Rodgers would only throw to him if he was wide, wide open. But he's become more involved in the offense (15 receptions in the last 4 games) and has 4 TDs on the season. He might never be good enough to start, but now he's doing well as a No. 3 receiver.

Fourth Quarter

(12:35) 7-J.Kapinos punts 57 yards to DET 11, Center-61-B.Goode. 86-D.Northcutt ran ob at DET 25 for 14 yards (51-B.Poppinga).

A conservative drive, the Packers were trying to kill some clock, ended with the Packers' first punt of the game.

(12:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt to GB 22 for 47 yards (38-T.Williams).

If there was one weak link in the pass defense, it was CB Jarrett Bush. WR Dennis Northcutt got behind Bush, and ran away from him for the big gain. All the comments I've read about Bush are usually hoping he'll be released soon, and he didn't do anything in this game to prove to those fans that he's becoming a better defender.

(10:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 81-C.Johnson [20-A.Bigby]. Ball thrown away.

(10:05) 25-R.Grant right tackle to GB 1 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

(9:22) 25-R.Grant right end to GB -1 for -2 yards (26-L.Delmas). FUMBLES (26-L.Delmas), RECOVERED by DET-57-J.Dizon at GB -1. TOUCHDOWN. Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-R.Grant right end tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (26-L.Delmas).

A big defensive stop on the 1 yard line leads to a collapse by the run blocking. I'm sure everyone blocking on those two running plays will be hearing it from their coaches next week.

(5:05) 4-J.Hanson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.

The drive stalled, but should Detroit have really been settling for a FG? No pass was completed for greater than 13 yards on the drive. They were just daring Stafford to make accurate, short passes. The Packers were going to let them work their way down the field, which was something they hadn't done well all game.

(3:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DET 38. 21-C.Woodson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 82-C.Fitzsimmons to DET 41 for 13 yards (21-C.Woodson). Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 82-C.Fitzsimmons to DET 40 for 12 yards (21-C.Woodson). FUMBLES (21-C.Woodson), RECOVERED by GB-21-C.Woodson at DET 41. Referee blew the ball dead.

Unlike their last game against the 49ers, the Packer offense wasn't able to run out the clock. They give the Lions two more chances, and Woodson forced two turnovers (one returned for a TD).

The 49ers defense in the redzone looking back and looking forward

Fooch — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:00:17 -0000

This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel. If you want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations hurry up and get yourself Comcast's NFL RedZone Channel.

Considering how little scoring there was last Thursday, it shouldn't surprise anybody that the red zone opportunities were far and few between for both the 49ers and the Bears. On offense, the 49ers were 1/3 with the one coming on Frank Gore's 14 yard touchdown run after the Tarell Brown interception. On defense, the 49ers kept the Bears out of the end zone on two red zone trips, and in fact, held them to only 3 points on the two trips. The second of those trips culminated in the game clinching Jay Cutler interception in the end zone.

I think it's safe to say that we won't be seeing a five interception performance from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. Rodgers has one 3-interception performance on the season (@ TB), two single interception games, and six games without an interception. That's not to say he won't struggle against the 49ers defense, but in reality, he probably won't turn the ball over too much.

The 49ers defense seems to be deep into bend but don't break territory. Solid quarterbacks seem to get plenty of yards against the 49ers (Cutler, Manning, Schaub, Favre, Warner, Ryan), but aside from Ryan, the 49ers defense has kept team's out of the end zone when needed. I think Aaron Rodgers qualifies as a solid quarterback. I fully expect him to rack up a fair number of yards (250+), but the question is whether he'll be able to convert once the Packers get into the red zone.

Prior to the Bears win, Football Outsiders ranked the 49ers 7th in red zone passing defense. I'd imagine this number improved with the performance against the Bears (not updated yet), but either way, the issue remains the same: Will the Packers offensive playmakers be able to get open and hurt the 49ers? The Packers biggest weapons include WR Donald Driver, WR Greg Jennings and TE Donald Lee. They have others but I'm just pointing the big names out for now.

One thing also to keep in mind in the red zone is that Aaron Rodgers has actually shown some fairly solid abilities as a scrambling quarterback. He currently has 229 rushing yards (6.2 ypc) with three rushing touchdowns. The 49ers have the athletes to keep an eye on him, but if the Packers get down close on goal to go, the 49ers better keep a close eye on #12. Maybe he's not quite on the scrambling level of he who shall not be named (who obviously can scramble better than anybody else, much like he has the best pump fake, the best hard count, and the best whatever else you want), but clearly Rodgers is no slouch in the pocket.

So will the 49ers continue their rather solid ability of containing quarterbacks in the red zone? Or will touchdowns be coming as deep bombs and it just won't matter? Ok, I won't be quite so negative as that. The Packers offense is a bit inconsistent at times, but if the 49ers defense sticks to bend but don't break, will that be enough?

Packers Preview: Packers Offer Fuzzy Target to Cowboys

Rafael Vela — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:01:41 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

The Cowboys hope to be repeating this scene on Sunday.

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Who are these guys?

The Green Bay fans are still trying to figure it out. Cowboys fans hope the Packers continue their identity crisis at least until next Monday. The Packers enter their matchup with Dallas at 4-4. A shaky, flawed 4-4 and yet, a dangerous, explosive 4-4. The Cowboys can avoid the blowup, but they must proceed with caution.

When Green Bay Has the Ball

When the Packers were 13-3 in '07, they liked to play, high-wire, spread formation football. They played a lot of three and four wideout sets, with RB Ryan Grant in the backfield with Brett Favre. They stretched secondaries with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Donald Lee and James Jones. They could go without a tight end or fullback much of the time because their line protected Favre well.

Two years on, the Packers are still playing down the field, but their protection has crumbled. Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked 35 times this year, leading one national pundit to dub the Packers line, the "baby swiss." They're been especially weak against the better defenses on their schedule. Mike Zimmer's Bengals bagged Rodgers six times. The Vikings sacked him eight times in their first meeting and six more times in the rematch. The lowly Bucs got him six times in their upset this past week. That's 26 sacks in four losses, numbers that probably had Wade Philips ready to call the blitzes first thing Tuesday morning.

To be fair, the Packers have suffered many injuries here. Their regular tackes, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, were not ready for the season opener. Tauscher had been released after tearing an ACL late last year but was hastily re-signed when the injuries piled up. Swingman Jason Spitz went on IR a few weeks ago.

Clifton and Tauscher both started last week but offered no clear improvement in protection. Of equal concern was the poor protection by the interior line. I saw one Bucs tackle walk RG Daryn Colledge right back to Rodgers to record a sack. The line looks even shakier this week, on the news that Tauscher is again injured. Rookie T.J. Lang will take his place at right tackle and will no doubt see lots of Demarcus Ware and lots of games by Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff when Dallas goes to a four-man line in the nickel.

Spencer has become very good at working the front half of a stunt and last week he crashed down on Eagles RT Winston Justice, knocking him off of Ratliff, who promptly looped in to sack Donovan McNabb.

Dallas can't go too blitz crazy, because the Packers are a decent running team. Grant is rotating with Ahman Green and the Packers would love to find an early rhythm with their runs. It will take some pressure off Rodgers. I say some -- six sacks per game is bad, any way you look at it.

When Dallas Has the Ball

There are five one-win teams in the NFL right now, and Green Bay has played four of them. They've supplied three of the Packers four wins, the other coming opening day against Chicago. The Packers defense slammed these weaklings, allowing just 35 points against the Bears, Rams, Browns and Lions, a tidy 8.8 points per game.

Then came Tampa. The Bucs hit the Packers for 38, raising the Packers average to a still-respectable 14.6. The problem has come against winners. Green Bay is 0-3 in two contests with the Vikings and one with the Bengals. What's worse, the seemingly stout D has allowed 99 points in those games, a not-so-tidy 33 point average.

Green Bay has struggled with power backs. Cedric Benson hammered them for 141 yards and Stephen Jackson added 117 the next week. The Packers did contain Adrian Peterson in the two Vikings contests, but left themselves open to Minnesota's passing game.

Playing eight man fronts is a dare the Packers rarely make because they don't rush the passer well -- they have just 13 sacks. Tthree players, DE Cullen Jenkins and LBs Aaron Kampman and Clay Matthews, have 9.5 of those 13. Kampman will miss the game, further weakening the Green Bay rush.

DC Dom Capers does not have many savory options. If he blitzes Tony Romo heavily, his coverage becomes vulnerable to short passes. Minnesota made several big plays on short tosses to Chester Taylor and on short crosses to Percy Harvin, who tortured the Packers safeties and nickel corners.

Dallas has the players to call a similar game. Felix Jones would welcome some short tosses in the open field. So would Sam Hurd, who scored a touchdown against Seattle by turning a short cross past Seattle's linebackers into a long romp up the sideline. Patrick Crayton hit the Eagles with a 62 yard seam route just before the half last week when he got behind their linebackers.

On the other hand, if Capers sits back, Jason Garrett will hammer Barber, Jones and Choice at his front seven repeatedly. The Packers do have good starting corners, so I don't expect lots of quick strikes up field. If the Dallas line can protect Romo, we should see a methodical, ball-control game plan.

Special Teams

I've harped on this matchup all week because I feel special teams could win this game. Dallas has been every effective covering kicks and has had exceptional punt return teams. Their one shortcoming has come on kickoff returns, where Joe DeCamillis has been unable to find the right blocking combination for his returner rotation of Felix Jones, Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree.

If Joe D can settle his two-man wedges, he can demolish the Packers coverage team. They gave up 77 and 48 yard returns to Percy Harvin in the Vikings loss two weeks ago and a critical 82 yard return when they were ready for an early knockout against the Bucs.

The Packers have a big-legged kicker in Mason Crosby, but they really suffer when Crosby can't hit touchbacks. Crosby kicked four to open the Tampa game but left his fifth short and had it returned inside his team's red zone.

The Cowboys must practice bounced kickoffs and short directional kicks, especially if the weather reports call for cold conditions. Crosby began hitting bouncers and popups against the Vikings after Harvin showed his big return skills. The Vikings didn't get great returns on these changeups, but they were fielding the ball at their own 20 and 25 and therefore got field position around their 35 or 40. If the Cowboys up men can field these cleanly (and this IS something they practiced regularly in training camp, so I assume they work on it a lot) the team should get great field position after any Packers kickoff.

Dallas also has the suddenly explosive Patrick Crayton returning punts at a 16 yard average. DeCamillis may eschew returns and go after a punt or two; Tampa got an early score by blocking a Green Bay punt, which Ronde Barber returned for six. The Packers units have been ragged in all areas. Look for maximum Dallas pressure on all special teams downs.

Overall

Despite their protection problems, the Packers can score and probably will score. Nobody has held them under 21 points this year. Aaron Rodgers is a quality quarterback and he has three quality receivers in Driver, Jennings and Jones. The keys for Dallas are the same ones they took to Philadelphia: keep the big play receivers in front of you; deny Rogers the big throw; put heavy pressure on his patchwork line; protect the football when you have it, assuring Green Bay has to make long drives, and exploit the serious advantage on special teams.

If Dallas protects the football, it should win. But as we all know, who can predict turnovers? Green Bay's defense has at least one takeaway in every game this season and 18 total this year. Dallas can't lose its concentration, or it can lose the game.

FANTASY WEEKEND REPORT by Craig T

Niko Houllis — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Craig T's FFH (we lied about the year established. Stolen via Google search. How's that for honesty.

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Our good buddy Craig T has his internet down, let me guess, Brighthouse? Remember when Brighthouse tried to make everyone think the NFL Network was the bad guy? Now BH is the only one that Doesnt have it. Heck, I get NFL Network on a sprint phone for goodness sake!! " You carry 8 shopping channels, but no NFL Network!!!"

Anyways..This message brought to you by Verizon's Fios. JK, ....

Take it away Craig T...

Welcome, BucEm fans, to what will be our weekly look at some fantasy football help some of you might be musing over. With 8 weeks down and 5 to go, many of you are likely jockeying for playoff berths, so let's get down to it...

QBs TO START (excluding weekly automatic starts P. Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, B. Favre, A. Rodgers, and K. Warner)

1. Tony Romo @ PHI. 8 TDs, 0 INTs in last 3 and seeing field as well as anyone.

2. Matt Hasselbeck vs DET. Weak SEA running game + weak DET defense = big bounceback game for Hasselbeck.

3. Donovan McNabb vs. DAL. Like Romo, also seeing field well in what should be a game filled w points.

4. Philip Rivers @ NYG. Clicking V-Jack lately and has passed for not less than 249 yds this season. NYG defense still not right.

5. Matt Schaub @ IND. First time he and Andre Johnson have been on the field together vs IND since 2007.

Sleeper: Jason Campbell @ ATL. Yes, ugh, I know, but WAS is coming off a bye and ATL can't stop anybody through the air. Look for a solid, if not great, game from Campbell Sunday.

QBs TO SIT

1. Eli Manning vs SD. He's just not trustworthy since injuring his heel.

2. Matt Ryan vs WAS. Roddy White is iffy for the game and WAS pass defense has been solid this season. If you have a 2nd option, consider it.

3. Jake Delhomme @ NO. If you were considering Jake as a bye-week replacement, dig deeper for an option, such as Alex Smith or Campbell. Delhomme vs a turnover-minded defense like NO is a nightmare.

4. Jay Cutler vs ARI. Has hit 3 PaTDs only once since week one.

5. Kyle Orton vs PIT. Steeler D boosted by return of Polamalu.

RBs TO START (excluding C. Johnson, Gore, MJ-D, Turner, LT, SJax, AP, Forte, Ronnie Brown, B. Jacobs)

1. Ryan Grant @ TB. Duh.

2. Joseph Addai vs. HOU. Comeback player of year candidate has scored in 4 straight.

3. Ray Rice @ CIN. Now the guy in BAL, should be key piece of offense in a close game.

4. Marion Barber @ PHI. With trio of RBs, no longer an auto start, but still gets majority of carries and goalline touches and should be started when DAL offense is clicking like it is.

5. Pierre Thomas vs. CAR. Still the main guy in the backfield of the most explosive offense in football.

Sleeper: Jamaal Charles @ JAX. Did you see what Johnson and Titans did to this run defense last week? Charles will get majority of carries and should have a good chance to score.

RBs TO SIT

1. LeSean McCoy vs DAL. Westbrook back and Cowboys have been strong against the run.

2. Laurence Maroney vs MIA. Sammy Morris' return clouds backfield picture and MIA also solid vs run.

3. Cadillac Williams vs GB. GB ranks near the top of the NFL in rushing YPGA. Certainly you've got a better option.

4. Rashard Mendenhall @ DEN.

Denver ranks 3rd against run and Willie Parker to get some work as well.

5. Beanie Wells @ CHI. Still splitting 50/50 w/Hightower, and appears not to be getting majority of goalline carries. Maybe a flex play, but not RB2 material.

WRs TO START (excluding R. Wayne, A. Johnson, L. Fitzgerald, M. Colston, R. Moss, W. Welker, Desean Jackson, R. White, Calvin Johnson, H. Ward, Vincent Jackson, D. Bowe, B. Marshall, Ochocinco)

1. Santana Moss @ ATL. Falcons giving up yards in droves to opposing number 1 WRs. Moss on Grimes' backup should be a mismatch.

2. Miles Austin @ PHI. Ride him til he bucks ya.

3. Nate Burleson vs DET. Hasselbeck's main target should cash in Sunday.

4. Donald Driver @ TB. Bucs' secondary will get a stiff test Sunday, and Driver has been Rodgers' go to guy. Jennings also a solid play.

5. Kevin Walter @ IND. Should have more one on one matchups than Johnson and targets should increase with loss of Owen Daniels.

Sleeper: Steve Breaston @ CHI. In line for solid number of targets with Boldin re-aggravating his ankle.

WRs TO SIT

1. Ted Ginn, Jr @ NE. Don't be fooled by his 2 KRTD performance against NYJ... He still hasn't earned his starting WR spot back yet from Hartline/Bess.

2. Roy E. Williams @ PHI. I don't care that he scored last week. He stinks and doesn't have trust of his QB.

3. Eddie Royal vs PIT. Only receiver worth trusting right now is B. Marshall. Gaffney stealing some of Royal's targets.

4. Lance Moore vs CAR. Gimpy, may be a GTD. With Meachem and Henderson likely to get targets, consider better alternatives over Moore if you can.

5. Mario Manningham vs. SD. Manning spreading around the targets and is having a tough time throwing an accurate deep ball, which hurts a big play WR like double M.

TEs TO START (excluding Witten, Gates, Clark, V. Davis, Shockey, T. Gonzalez)

1. Brent Celek vs DAL. Even though DAL has been great at holding down opposing TEs, he's too valuable to this offense lately to sit.

2. Kevin Boss vs SD. Great underneath option for Manning, who's struggling to step up and make deep throws.

3. Fred Davis @ ATL. TE is a big part of WAS passing game, and Davis has the athletic ability of a WR.

4. Donald Lee vs. TB. Rodgers looks at TE in red zone often and matchup problems exist for Buccaneers. Sub in Jermichael Finley here if he's cleared to play.

5. Heath Miller @ DEN. With Denver's defense so tough against the run and in the red zone, Big Ben's go to guy in the red zone should get some scoring looks.

Sleeper: Ben Watson vs MIA. Scored in 2 of last 3 games.

TEs TO SIT

1. Brandon Pettigrew @ SEA. If you're looking for a bye-week filler, look elsewhere. Without Stafford healthy, Pettigrew is a forgotten part of the offense.

2. Kellen Winslow vs TB. Yea yea, Freeman's gotta throw it to somebody, but who can really tell who he'll connect with? If you've got another solid option, consider it until we see how he connects with K2.

3. Bo Scaife @ SF. Niners 3-4 defense matches up their athletic LBs very well with opposing TEs.

4. Todd Heap @ CIN. Good for 3 catches, 40-50 yds, and that is all.

5. Tony Scheffler vs PIT. Except for his big game against SD a few weeks ago, has done nothing this year.

5 KICKERS TO START:

1. Shaun Suisham @ ATL

2. David Akers @ DAL

3. Nate Kaeding @ NYG

4. Kris Brown @ IND

5. Shayne Graham vs BAL

5 KICKERS TO SIT:

1. Dan Carpenter @ NE

2. Jason Elam vs WAS

3. Olindo Mare vs DET

4. Robbie Gould vs ARI

5. John Kasay @ NO

5 DEFENSES WITH GOOD MATCHUPS:

1. PIT @ DEN

2. SEA vs DET

3. NO vs CAR

4. JAX vs KC

5. SF vs TEN

5 DEFENSES WITH TOUGH MATCHUPS:

1. DAL @ PHI

2. NYG vs SD

3. PHI vs DAL

4. MIA @ NE

5. ATL vs WAS

The Fight For First Place: Round Two

Mitchell_M — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:41:12 -0000

Some are calling it the "Game of the Century". Others are calling it the "Hostile Homecoming". Still others are calling it "Favre-Packers v.2.0".

Me? I call it Week 9 of the NFL season.

Admittedly, our opponent this week is eerily similar to the team that handed Green Bay its second loss of the season. We know this team very well, and the only major change is the injury to their star cornerback. Therefore, the actual matchup preview will be abbreviated. Those of you who hate my lengthy previews: commence rejoycing.

MIN rushing vs. GB defense: Adrian Peterson is still scary-good, as is the offensive line that blocks for him. Phil Loadholt has been somewhat hampered by a few nagging injuries, as had Steve Hutchinson, but both seem to be back to normal now. Peterson's rushing stats have actually been underwhelming in 2009, putting up yardage totals of 85, 55, 63, and 69 in four of the last five weeks.

Green Bay gets a major boost to its rush defense compared to the week 4 version of the team now that Atari Bigby is healthy and playing. The defensive line has also been playing well; B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins have managed to get consistent penetration and break up plays as they develop. The linebackers, most notably A.J. Hawk, have been streaky, but I attribute that more to having a surplus of contributors (Hawk, Nick Barnett, Brandon Chillar, Aaron Kampman, and Clay Matthews) and a vast array of sub packages.

Advantage: Still Minnesota, but not as much as before.

MIN passing vs. GB defense: Well, Brett Favre is not playing the same way he did to start the season. He's thrown 79 passes in the last two games, including 50 in last week's incredibly fluky loss to Pittsburgh. He has shown the ability to make any throw at any time, including the deep ball, where he puts it in a place where only his receiver can adjust and catch the football.

Minnesota's receiving corps is somewhat of a question mark. Bernard Berrian is dealing with hamstring problems, Percy Harvin is dealing with illness/shoulder issues (isn't he always?), leaving 2009 breakout Sidney Rice and 2008 Playgirl centerfold Visanthe Shiancoe as the main passing targets. I'd include Chester Taylor on this list, but he nearly got decapitated trying to catch a wildly-overpowered bullet dropped a short screen pass that led to the Vikes' first loss.

Besides Atari Bigby's return, the most important development between Week 4 and now is Dom Capers' realization that Aaron Kampman is effective out of a three-point stance. By shifting him to end on passing downs, Capers has enormous flexibility with his nickel and dime packages. Remember when we saw Kampman in coverage on the play where Favre had 8+ seconds to find a receiver? Don't expect to see that again.

Advantage: Minnesota, if you go by the numbers, but Green Bay has closed the gap.

GB rushing vs. MIN defense: Goodbye 2008 Ryan Grant, hello 2007 Ryan Grant. After seemingly endless questions regarding his ability, his fit in Green Bay, and the deservedness of his contract, Grant had his first breakout game in seemingly forever. This doesn't mean the questions don't still stand, but at least we know he is still capable of what got him his money in the first place. Brandon Jackson takes the place of oft-injured DeShawn Wynn, and might be a better fit as a change-of-pace back.

The offensive line looks much different than it did in the previous meeting, most notably with T.J. Lang likely filling in for Chad Clifton (re-aggravated ankle injury) at LT and Scott Wells possibly taking over for Jason Spitz (back injury). Wells has a huge chip on his shoulder after losing the job to Spitz in pre-season, and Lang has something to prove as a rookie protecting Aaron Rodgers' blind side from The Mullet. Combined with the potential availability of Mark Tauscher, the offensive line is nebulous, to say the least.

Minnesota has regained the notorious run defense that made them famous earlier in the decade, coming in at 5th in the league. Pat Williams' decline has seemed to have stalled for the time being, and the Vikings have avoided major injury to crucial players in their front seven (E.J. Henderson is the only starter listed any lower than questionable).

Advantage: Minnesota by a considerable margin.

GB passing vs. MIN defense: Aaron Rodgers is surpassing more expectations than anyone could have reasonably laid out for him. Every notable stat in the NFL has Rodgers among the leaders. First in yards per attempt (9.3), second in QB rating (110.8), tied for third for fewest interceptions (2), sixth in yards per game (283.7), and eighth in completion percentage (65.8).

Donald Driver has been crucial to Rodgers' success, as the 34-year old receiver leads the team in catches (27) and yards (479), not to mention sick one-handed grabs while his other hand is held by a defender (two). Greg Jennings has been unusually quiet in the first half of the season, and James Jones had to overcome a rough start before he got back on track. The absence of Jordy Nelson and (likely) Jermichael Finley puts more pressure on Donald Lee and Jake Allen, newly-promoted off the practice squad.

Minnesota leads the league in sacks with 25. That statistic is more than enough testament to their talent against the pass. However, with Antoine Winfield dealing with a foot sprain, he may or may not be available for Sunday, and likely won't be 100% if he does play. Karl Paymah and Benny Sapp will team up to replace Winfield's presence, and it's highly likely they won't come close.

Advantage: Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers put up his best statistical game of the season despite getting sacked 8 times. If he gets that number cut by half, it will be a long day for fans of the purple squad.

Preliminary verdict: This game is easily the most important game for Green Bay of the season. I cannot imagine a way for Green Bay to remain relevant in the playoff picture if this game ends up putting the Packers at 4-3. The second tier of NFC teams is too good to risk going for a wild-card berth, especially when the team is only 1.5 games out of first place in the division.

If Green Bay wants to win, they need to do three simple things. They are, in no particular order,

Run directly at Jared Allen. Pull guards, lead with Quinn Johnson, double team him. As a smaller DE, he is less effective against the run, and if there's any hope of stifling his pass rush, it's making him tired early in the game.
Test the Minnesota safeties. With Winfield possibly out and definitely limited, Madieu Williams takes the brunt of the coverage duties. That is a weakness worth exploiting.
Wrap, swarm, and strip AP. Clay Matthews' signature play of his young career is the strip-fumble TD of Adrian Peterson. That might not happen again, but the gang tackling and proper mechanics must if the defense expects to limit Peterson's production.

All of these things must happen in order for Green Bay to win. Not one, not two, but all three. If Jared Allen gets after Rodgers, thus preventing Rodgers from throwing downfield, and Minnesota keeps the ball by using Peterson to chew up the clock, the Vikings will have this game in the bag.

I have no idea how this will play out. I'm certain it will be as entertaining as it will be hard-fought. There's no love lost between these two teams (not to mention their respective quarterbacks), and I expect nothing but the maximum effort from both.

That being said, let's get 'em.

Poll

What outcome do you see for Week 9 vs. Minnesota?

Big GB win.

122 votes

Slim GB win.

288 votes

Too close to call.

94 votes

Slim MIN win.

87 votes

Big MIN win.

94 votes

685 votes | Poll has closed

That's More Like It

Mitchell_M — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:15:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

So this is what it's like to have open lanes.

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Last week's blowout of Detroit was the least exciting 26-0 victory I had ever studied. There were numerous miscues, stupid penalties, awful pass protection, and reaggravated injuries.

This week's 31-3 blowout of Cleveland? Much more exciting.

As usual, I'm going to start off by analyzing the negatives. Yeah, yeah, simmer down, there weren't that many this time. Once again, what follows are all impressions that I got despite not watching the game. (Sidenote: If anyone has a problem with me breaking down the games using NFL.com's video packages, play-by-plays, and box scores, please e-mail me for information on my favorite charity, Mitchell's DirectTV Fund.)

8 penalties for 70 yards. While they cut the yardage lost to yellow flags from last week by 50%, this is still far too many flags. Some of them were just downright sloppy (Al Harris' facemask of Mohamed Massaquoi, 12 men on the field, Atari Bigby's unnecessary roughness). Others were fairly normal calls (Brady Poppinga's defensive holding, Donald Lee's offensive holding and offensive pass interference, Al Harris' illegal contact).

I can live with the holding penalties (provided they occur at lower rates), but the sloppy mistakes really bother me. Especially Harris' facemask, where he overran the receiver and reached back to grab whatever he could, despite having help on the tackle.
Jermichael Finley's short day. Before the game, one of my friends was debating whether he should start Finley or Owen Daniels in fantasy football. I was adamant that Finley was going to have a career day against Cleveland and that Daniels would struggle against San Francisco's linebackers. Had he listened to me, he would have gotten the dreaded double-whammy of a starter getting hurt and the benched player going off for a point explosion.

Finley has looked really good in 2009, and has shown improvement each and every week. Seeing him in street clothes before halftime was not an encouraging sign, even if they didn't need him against the Browns.

I have yet to see any news regarding Finley's diagnosis and how much time he will miss. As soon as I do, I'll post an update. Especially since one of today's problems was...
Stalled drives. I know I shouldn't complain about a day where the offense gets both a 1-yard run and a 5-yard pass for touchdowns. But in the early going, the Packers had their first drive stall at the Cleveland 32-yard line. Later, on the first drive of the second half, they had a drive stall at the Cleveland 37-yard line, and followed that by settling for a field goal after getting 1st-and-goal from the Cleveland 8-yard line.

While this might be considered nitpicking (mainly because it is nitpicking), the fact that the offense had three drives stall in the opponent's territory is somewhat worrisome. Against Cleveland, you can get away with it, but heading into the toughest part of the 2009 schedule, the offense needs to sustain every drive it possibly can.

If Jermichael Finley is healthy, this will probably be a lesser problem going forward. A big target like that is a major asset, especially deep in enemy territory. However, if he's going to miss significant time, it's up to the rest of the offense to step up and make scores happen whenever they cross midfield.

See, that wasn't so bad, was it? Now let's talk about the positives.

Donald Driver and the Fountain of Youth. When I was in grade school, my favorite subject was social studies. Social studies was a fancy way of combining history and political science, which ended up being my concentration in college. One of my favorite stories in this subject was Ponce de Leon searching for the fountain of youth in Florida. Clearly, he was looking in the wrong spot, since Donald Driver has evidently used it in the Midwest.

While Driver only had 2 catches for 84 yards, his 71-yard touchdown came off of a beautiful hot read by Rodgers, who saw the seam in coverage and zipped it between the defenders and into Driver's chest. From there, Driver showed off the acceleration, angular running, and body control that made him the franchise reception leader. He might not be AP, but he can still get it done in the open field. Just ask Eric Wright.

At 34, Driver is leading the team in catches (27), yards (479), and touchdowns (3). While this is awesome in so many ways, it's curious that Greg Jennings' numbers are not at the same levels. Jennings had another relatively quiet day (5 catches, 52 yards), and his stats for the season are modest by his historical standards.

Some readers attribute this to the new development of defenses double-covering Jennings to prevent big plays. I tend to agree with this assessment, especially since Jennings hasn't seen consistent double-coverage in his career yet. Plus, it explains why Driver has been able to make so many big plays; he has less defenders in his way.
Aaron Rodgers' short day. Anytime your starting quarterback has a line of 15/20 for 246 yards and 3 scores by the middle of the fourth quarter, it's time to give the backup some reps. That's exactly what happened today, and it is a welcome sight.

It helps that Rodgers was able to avoid what little pressure Cleveland managed to throw his way and come away unscathed. Today's zero sack performance by the offensive line lowered the per-game average from 5.0 to 4.1. We can build on this!
T.J. Lang = LT of the future? If you would have asked me in September where Lang would have ended up this season, I would have told you that he would either be on the bench or in the rotation at RT. I never would have thought he would have made such a good case for starting at LT. Chad Clifton's ankle injury will likely keep the mainstay tackle sidelined for a few weeks, and we already know that Daryn Colledge can't handle the position.

Lang, however, has looked solid in his three week audition. He gets excellent force behind his initial punch, but more importantly, he follows through by creating contact with the defender. While Detroit and Cleveland are not defensive stalwarts, keeping a man of that size at bay is impressive, and Lang now has the inside track towards starting against Jared Allen next week.

Will T.J. Lang be able to protect Rodgers' blindside from the best pass rusher in the league? I don't know. But I do know that he will give Rodgers a much better chance than a gimpy Chad Clifton or Daryn Colledge, who clearly belongs at LG.
Ryan Grant earning his paycheck. Raise your hands if you're happy to see Grant put up a dominating rushing performance (27 carries, 148 yards, 1 TD).

OK, now raise your hands if you're irritated it took this long to happen.

While Grant's struggles are well-documented on this site, I place myself in the "better late than never" camp when it comes to success on the ground. A consistent run game gave Green Bay a 10-minute edge in time of possession, and the workload allowed Grant to get into a rhythm and bust off some good carries.
Red zone defense. The Browns had an abysmal offensive showing, but they still were able to move into striking distance (inside the Green Bay 5-yard line) on two seperate occasions. The fact that the defense held them to no touchdowns and only one field goal speaks volumes of the defensive effort yesterday.

Charles Woodson again showed why he deserves to at least be in the conversation for DPOY (even if he won't win it) with a pick and a forced fumble. Aaron Kampman got good pressure all day, and came away with a sack. Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji consistently got penetration, which opened up plays for the linebackers. Jenkins also recorded a sack and a forced fumble. A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett registered seven and six tackles respectively, and generally looked like they belonged on the field.

All in all, the defense looks active and aggressive, creating pressure from various positions and angles, flowing to stop the ball, cutting off running lanes from ball carriers, and forcing quarterbacks into bad throws. Sounds like a good recipe going forward to me.
Scoreboard watching. It's not even close to playoff time, but many of us were keeping tabs on the other teams in the NFC North that were in action. Seeing Chicago getting blown out by Cincinnati did wonders for some Packer fans' confidence, as it shows just how much the Bengals were overlooked at the beginning of the season. Likewise, seeing the Vikings' luck run out in Pittsburgh was equally therapeutic, even if the two biggest plays in the 4th quarter (Favre sacked, stripped, and the fumble returned for a TD and Chester Taylor's inability to snag a short screen pass that was thrown a bit too hard) were somewhat fluky.

The most important result from the weekend is Green Bay improving to 4-2 while Minnesota falls to 6-1 and Chicago to 3-3. Moving into second place in the division and only 1.5 games behind the leading Minnesota Vikings isn't the ideal scenario we imagined back in September, but it's a far sight better than it could be.

Recap: Green Bay Packers Dominate Browns 31-3

Brandon — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Scott Heckel - AP

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Just a great game for the Green Bay Packers. They clearly outplayed a lesser team. The biggest stat, box score from ESPN.com, was 460 yards on offense for the Packers, and only 139 for the Browns. RB Ryan Grant had 151 total yards by himself.

The offensive line gave Grant a lot of room to run, and there were no sacks on QB Aaron Rodgers. LT T.J. Lang looked good in this game, getting into the 2nd level to make blocks all over the field. He also kept pass rushers off Rodgers's blind side, he even cleared that side of the field on Rodgers's long 19 yard scramble. Rodgers completed 75% of his passes and seemed to have no trouble finding open receivers. The defense held the Browns to 2.8 yards/carry (21 for 58), and it was another dismal day for QB Derek Anderson (12 of 29 for 99 yards and 1 INT). The special teams really struggled, but the Browns offense couldn't do anything with good field position or second chances. Penalties were a problem again (8 for 70 yards).

There were a couple injuries during the game. According to Mike McCarthy, TE Jermichael Finley and WR Brett Swain both have knee sprains. It's too early to tell, but I expect they'll both miss next week's game. Grant was hurt in the 3rd quarter, but he did come back. Also, DE Cullen Jenkins and LB Brandon Chillar were injured, but then returned. WR Greg Jennings got some dirt in his eye, and he should be fine.

Complete play-by-play recap after the break. This was an important game to win, and not lose sight of, before the Vikings come to town next week. We've got lots to talk about this week.

Packers vs Browns coverage; Packers vs Browns recap; Packers vs Browns boxscore; Dawgs By Nature.

Play-by-Play from NFL.com:

First Quarter:

2-M.Crosby kicks 69 yards from GB 30 to CLV 1, out of bounds.

This was the first of two kickoffs by K Mason Crosby that went out of bounds. I guess they were a little too concerned about WR Joshua Cribbs.

(12:44) 25-R.Grant right tackle ran ob at GB 18 for 4 yards (24-E.Wright).

This was the first of 6 carries on the opening drive by Grant. I had been hoping they would run the ball more, but this drive was ridiculous. They moved the ball 60 yards for almost 7 minutes, and it ended on a failed 4th down attempt.

(4:34) 3-D.Anderson pass deep middle to 11-M.Massaquoi to GB 36 for 22 yards (31-A.Harris). PENALTY on GB-31-A.Harris, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 36.

This happened on one of the 2 good drives the Browns managed. They went 70 yards in over 6 minutes, and apparently saw something they liked in the matchup of CB Al Harris and rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi. Obviously this play was won by Massaquoi, but in all Anderson attempted 8 passes to the rookie, that was his only catch, and usually Harris was in coverage. Overall, a win for Harris.

(:06) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Furrey (56-N.Barnett).

Maybe he could have picked it off, but it was a great play by LB Nick Barnett to break up the short pass and force them to settle for a FG.

Second Quarter:

(12:22) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 41-S.Havner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Finally some pass attempts. Maybe all the 1st quarter running plays were just setting up this pass to TE Spencer Havner. It was 3rd and 1, an obvious running play, but Havner was left uncovered and he turned it up the sideline all the way for a TD.

(11:09) 15-D.Zastudil punts 40 yards to GB 28, Center-64-R.Pontbriand. 38-T.Williams to GB 33 for 5 yards (54-B.Costanzo). PENALTY on GB, Defensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at CLV 32 - No Play.

This was the 12 men on the field play on a 4th down punt, which gave the Browns a 1st down. Swain was injured on the previous kickoff and McCarthy said it caused a communication/coaching error.

(10:56) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to CLV 37 for no gain (97-J.Jolly, 79-R.Pickett).

The Browns tried to run right up the middle for most of the game, and usually had nowhere to go. This was a play clogged up by DE Johnny Jolly and NT Ryan Pickett, but they didn't have any better luck when NT B.J. Raji and DE Cullen Jenkins played. The Browns aren't a great running team, but they did even worse than usual against the Packers defense. LB A.J. Hawk and Barnett were left unblocked a lot, and they led the team in tackles.

(7:12) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Browns showed Rodgers a look he had seen in practice this week, he knew right where to throw the ball, and WR Donald Driver did the rest. Great play by Driver to run past the rest of the secondary, and fend off CB Eric Wright, who was the last man to beat.

(5:15) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 80-B.Robiskie INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at CLV 40. 21-C.Woodson to CLV 15 for 25 yards (35-J.Harrison).

Looking back at the last two games, Anderson has attempted 8 passes to rookie WR Brian Robiskie, and he only has 1 reception. Anderson and Robiskie seemed to be running different plays. The learning curve for a rookie WR can be steep.

(2:00) 25-R.Grant left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

After the INT, the Packers had to go 15 yards for the TD. They attacked the weak Browns run defense with 12 yards by Grant, and 3 yards rushing by Rodgers.

(:30) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson sacked at CLV 49 for -7 yards (74-A.Kampman).

LB Aaron Kampman has looked much better these last two weeks. He had 5 QB hits last week, and 3 more against the Browns. Including this sack.

Third Quarter:

(11:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 41-S.Havner to CLV 15 for 12 yards (22-B.McDonald). PENALTY on GB-86-D.Lee, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CLV 27 - No Play.

A game to forget for TE Donald Lee. He had at least one drop, a big holding penalty in the 1st half, and then this penalty, which did nothing to help Havner on the reception.

(10:28) 2-M.Crosby 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

It was 4th and 20, but this whole play seemed rushed. Up 21-3, I was expecting a punt to keep the Browns in bad field position. Instead they attempted a 55 yard FG that missed wide left.

(9:06) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 16-J.Cribbs to GB 44 for 3 yards (21-C.Woodson). FUMBLES (21-C.Woodson), RECOVERED by GB-54-B.Chillar at GB 48. 54-B.Chillar to GB 48 for no gain (55-A.Mack). Cleveland challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 08:56.)

CB Charles Woodson won't get any statistical credit for the fumble recovery, which seems unfair since it was all because of him. The Packers forced 2 turnovers and Woodson (unsurprisingly) was responsible for both.

(4:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 25-R.Grant to CLV 1 for 3 yards (50-E.Barton).

Great play by Browns LB Eric Barton, who stood up Grant at the goal line and forced the Packers to settle for a FG.

(2:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short right to 83-G.Estandia. PENALTY on GB-51-B.Poppinga, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLV 36 - No Play.

The drive should have ended there on 3rd and 10, but LB Brady Poppinga grabbed the receiver and gave them another chance.

(1:51) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 35-J.Harrison ran ob at CLV 47 for 6 yards (56-N.Barnett). PENALTY on GB-20-A.Bigby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLV 47.

SS Atari Bigby said he took his eyes off of RB Jerome Harrison and he shouldn't have been near him.

(1:29) 31-J.Lewis left tackle ran ob at GB 22 for 16 yards (21-C.Woodson).

The Browns actually got something going on this drive. It was only their 2nd real scoring opportunity. RB Jamal Lewis had 25 yards rushing on the drive (and 22 yards the rest of the game). This isn't a criticism. I'm just pointing out how good the Packers defense was the rest of the game.

(1:02) 3-D.Anderson pass deep right to 86-M.Gaines to GB 1 for 21 yards (54-B.Chillar).

I'm not a fan of Chillar in coverage against TEs. He allowed two TDs during the St. Louis game, and this near TD pass down to the 1 yard line. A great goal line stand forced an incomplete pass on 4th down.

Fourth Quarter:

(10:19) 25-R.Grant right tackle pushed ob at CLV 5 for 37 yards (26-A.Elam).

I thought Grant was going all the way.

(9:47) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Nice play by WR James Jones to shield the defender away from the ball. I'm surprised this was the first (and only) pass attempt to him. They rarely had 3 WRs in the game. Usually they had 2 TEs and Havner played a lot.

(8:56) Flynn in at qb 25-R.Grant right guard to GB 14 for 3 yards (93-J.Trusnik).

A QB Matt Flynn sighting. A true sign the game was over.

(6:25) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson sacked at CLV 45 for -11 yards (77-C.Jenkins). FUMBLES (77-C.Jenkins), and recovers at CLV 45. 3-D.Anderson to CLV 45 for no gain (74-A.Kampman).

Great play by Jenkins, beating Pro Bowl LT Joe Thomas for the strip. This play started in Packer territory, down 31-3, the Browns couldn't get anything going and were forced to punt again.

(4:34) 10-M.Flynn pass short right to 85-G.Jennings to GB 37 for 12 yards (24-E.Wright).

And Flynn gets to complete a pass too.

The Curious Case Of Green Bay's Receivers

Mitchell_M — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:23:35 -0000

The overarching story for the past month has been Green Bay's offensive line and the sense of panic and terror that everyone exudes whenever the discussion turns towards Aaron Rodgers' 20 sacks. And that is certainly an important story. A related thread from the O-line discussion is Rodgers' overall performance through 4 games and how remarkable it has been, given the mitigating circumstances. Despite constantly running for his life, Rodgers has thrown for 1,098 yards (6th in NFL), 6 touchdowns (t-8th in NFL), 1 interception (t-3rd in NFL), 47 first downs (t-8th in NFL), and a passer rating of 101.1 (5th in NFL).

Despite the small sample size, those are still some pretty gaudy stats. So all the team has to do is fix the myriad issues up front to give Rodgers some breathing room, and the offensive woes will simply correct themselves. Right?

Not so fast. There's still a completely unrelated problem that has sprung up from seemingly nowhere, and that problem is known as 'Braylon Edwards syndrome', or in layman's terms, drops.

For the past week or so, I've been working on a new statistical model that measures the consistency of production from an NFL wide receiver. As I trudge my way through knee-deep pools of numbers, statistics, and projections, one of the best raw tools that I've come up with is WR completion percentage. In a nutshell, it takes the number of times that a WR has been targeted for a pass, the number of recorded catches the WR notches, and turns it into a success percentage.

I've only been measuring Green Bay's statistics in my research, but what I've found in 2009 has surprised me. Allow me to share some of my findings with you.

Green Bay's most reliable pass-catcher: Ryan Grant. I know your reaction must be somewhere between "Huh?" and "What?!", but it's true. In four games, Grant has been targeted 11 times and has converted 8 of them, a success rate of 81.8%, with 0 drops. That makes him Green Bay's only receiver that is above 80%, which is the benchmark for "elite-level" production. For instance, the leader in the NFL in completion percentage is Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller, at 88.9%. The top WR on the list is Miami's Davone Bess at 83.3%.
Green Bay's least reliable pass catcher: DeShawn Wynn. Wynn has played the role of 3rd down back because Ryan Grant (allegedly) isn't as good of a receiver. But Wynn has only 2 catches on the year on 7 targets, with 2 drops. So far, Wynn is converting less than 30% of his targets. JaMarcus Russell thinks that's bad. When does Brandon Jackson get back?
Green Bay's top receiver: Donald Driver. This is something of a surprise, considering Donald Driver was supposed to be washed up by now. But he's the leader on the team in targets (29), and he's converted 62.1% of those targets. The percentage isn't very good (70.0% is generally the watermark for above-average production), and Driver also has 2 drops to his name. But his 18 catches have come at times when Rodgers has needed him most, and he's proven that he can still play at a high level.
Green Bay's droppiest receivers: Jordy Nelson and James Jones. The Packers' co-number three receivers have each dropped 3 passes this year, but that's where the similarity ends. Nelson has been better in converting his targets (7 for 11, Jones is 3 for 9), but Nelson's production fluctuates nearly 25.0% from game to game. In any case, both of these guys are severely underperforming their talent level, and I look for them to turn things around soon.
The difference between Green Bay's TEs: negligible. Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley seem to be trending in opposite directions, but so far their production has been about equal. Lee has converted 72.2% of his targets, and Finley has caught 73.3% of his. Each has one drop to his name (most notably Lee's drop on 4th-and-goal in the third quarter against Minnesota), but both have shown a penchant for breaking big gains. A lot of people think that Finley's big play ability should give him the edge against Lee in the battle for the starting job, but Lee really isn't that much worse than Finley. A two tight end set is a good formation for the offense to use.
Green Bay's most disturbing surprise: Greg Jennings. Jennings is a top receiver in the league. Why hasn't he played like it? Jennings has been targeted 22 times this season, but has only come up with 11 catches. A 50.0% conversion rate is awful for a number one receiver, as was the drop he had against Cincinnati and the poor route he ran against Antoine Winfield, resulting in Rodgers' lone interception. I would like to think that the reason for Jennings' decline is the wrist injury, but no matter what the reason, it's clear that his timing with Aaron Rodgers is way off. Let's hope the bye week clears that up.

A lot of the reason for Green Bay's 2-2 record is the offense's inability to sustain and finish drives. Part of that is the seive-like line up front, but a big part is Green Bay's case of the dropsies. According to STATS, a leader in measuring NFL statistics, Green Bay is third in the NFL in drops with 10. Based on my own research, I've come to a different conclusion: as a team, Green Bay has 13 drops, which ties them for the league lead. This is a problem that nobody saw coming, and I have no idea how a problem like this gets fixed. More reps in practice with the jugs machine? Special hand lotion? Massages? Acupuncture? StickUm?

In any case, the team has an extra week to shake off whatever has brought this scourge to the receiving corps. Let's hope that it's not the only scourge to be rid of during the bye.

Recap: Green Bay Packers Defeated in Minnesota, 23-30

Brandon — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:00:58 -0000

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Paging LT Levi Jones. They can't sign him quick enough. The Packers played a really strong game, but the story will be the problems at left tackle. I try hard not to overreact to a bad game, but this wasn't one bad game. It's been bad all season, topped off by the disaster in Cincinnati when DE Antwan Odom had 5 sacks, and now the 4.5 sacks by DE Jared Allen. I actually can't believe Allen only had 4.5 sacks; it seemed like he had 10. LT Daryn Colledge was bad, and backup LT T.J. Lang was, if anything, even worse. Lang deserves some slack since it was his first NFL appearance. Though LT Chad Clifton should be back after the bye week, there has to be a Plan B. Hopefully Jones isn't holding out for a starting job, and will gladly accept a seat on the bench and a couple million dollars if Clifton is healthy.

Lost in the left tackle disaster was the play of SS Derrick Martin. It was technically his 2nd start, but he didn't play much last week in St. Louis. He looked lost on the big 42 yard pass play to WR Percy Harvin. He then blew the deep help on the 31 yard TD pass early in the 3rd quarter to WR Bernard Berrian, and got CB Al Harris, literally, stomping mad. He was then benched in favor of CB/S Jarrett Bush. It's the same situation as with Clifton; SS Atari Bigby should be back after the bye week.

It would have been a great win, but it wasn't a must-win. There's still a lot of season left, the Packers only have 2 losses, and the Vikings aren't going to go unbeaten. There was a lot I liked in this game. The run defense was outstanding, especially in the 4th quarter. And QB Aaron Rodgers had almost 400 yards passing despite no blind side protection. Up next week is the bye week, then two winable games against the Lions and Browns. Now they can focus on going 4-2 and see what the NFC North looks like at that point.

Packers vs Vikings coverage; Packers vs Vikings recap; Packers vs Vikings boxscore; Daily Norseman

My game recap from the play-by-play at NFL.com.

First Quarter:

(9:28) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 33 for -9 yards (sack split by 69-J.Allen and 96-B.Robison). FUMBLES (69-J.Allen), RECOVERED by MIN-52-C.Greenway at MIN 33. 52-C.Greenway to MIN 33 for no gain (72-J.Spitz). Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 09:22.)

They only lost the game by 7 points. So giving up a fumble on the Vikings 24 yard line was as good as giving up 3 points. It's hard to blame QB Aaron Rodgers for this fumble when both his tackles are beaten to the outside and the pocket collapsed.

(3:26) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

A really good play by QB Brett Favre. He looked one way, and then went back to the other side of the field for the TD. Of course it's amazing what you can do when you have time to throw...

(2:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 88-J.Finley for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

I think we've all been waiting to see something like this from TE Jermichael Finley. He uses his speed to get open and downfield, and his strength to fight into the end zone.

Second Quarter:

(11:47) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 85-G.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Winfield at MIN 23. 26-A.Winfield to MIN 23 for no gain (85-G.Jennings).

Another turnover deep in Vikings territory that almost certainly took 3 points off the board for the Packers. But this was a great play by CB Antoine Winfield. He had a great game.

(7:20) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian to GB 13 for 16 yards (29-D.Martin).

I can't remember: was this the play when Favre had about 6 seconds to throw as the Packers 3-man rush got nowhere near him? The Vikings entered the game as one of the worst pass blocking teams in the league, and the Packers got no sacks. They didn't even put much pressure on him. The pass rush is officially broken.

(3:30) 28-A.Peterson left end to MIN 42 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by GB-52-C.Matthews at MIN 42. 52-C.Matthews for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Packers defense turned RB Adrian Peterson into a below average back in this game. Great play by DE Cullen Jenkins, who led the push forward, and by LB Clay Matthews to grab the ball. I'm a big fan of Matthews, although I'm not of fan of his pass rush. I'd almost prefer they gave rookie LB Brad Jones a chance on 3rd downs to rush the passer, which was something he did pretty well during the preseason. Matthews should still play a lot, but he can take time away from LB Brady Poppinga. The only times I've noticed Poppinga this season is when he's losing back side contain on a cut-back run.

Third Quarter:

(10:45) 4-B.Favre pass deep left to 87-B.Berrian for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

As mentioned above, the play that probably ended SS Derrick Martin's career as a starting safety.

(4:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 25-R.Grant to MIN 5 for 20 yards (25-T.Johnson).

I don't know what to make of RB Ryan Grant anymore. He seemed to miss some big cut-back opportunities for big gains, but he also had a solid game with 4.6 yards/carry and 4 receptions for 50 yards. I guess 2007 was a magic season for him, but he remains a solid NFL back.

(4:03) (Shotgun) 25-R.Grant right guard to MIN 1 for 4 yards (56-E.Henderson).

(3:34) 30-J.Kuhn left guard to MIN 1 for no gain (52-C.Greenway).

(3:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley to MIN 1 for no gain (51-B.Leber) [91-R.Edwards].

(2:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Lee.

Just a back-breaking series. 1st and goal at the Vikings 5 yard line, and they were stopped on three consecutive great plays by the Vikings defense. I can't remember watching a series of 4 plays that were all so close to a TD. Unfortunately the last one was a drop by TE Donald Lee. It would have made the game 21-28. In hindsight, Mike McCarthy should have gone for a field goal. But the defense was struggling so much up to that point, it felt like a shootout, and the Packers had to do something to make up the difference on the scoreboard.

Fourth Quarter:

(13:00) 5-C.Kluwe punts 43 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Loeffler, fair catch by 87-J.Nelson.

(9:00) 5-C.Kluwe punts 41 yards to GB 1, Center-46-C.Loeffler, downed by MIN-37-E.Frampton.

(5:08) 5-C.Kluwe punts 50 yards to GB 4, Center-46-C.Loeffler, out of bounds.

(3:20) 5-C.Kluwe punts 33 yards to GB 12, Center-46-C.Loeffler. 87-J.Nelson MUFFS catch, touched at GB 16, recovered by GB-30-J.Kuhn at GB 18. 30-J.Kuhn to GB 18 for no gain (Team).

The Packers defense forced the Vikings to punt the ball away 4 times in the 4th quarter. This should have been the time for the Vikings to run out the clock and ice the game, but they couldn't do it. I've been critical of the Packers run defense for the last 1+ seasons, but they shut down the best running back in the NFL when they had to and gave themselves a chance to get back into the game.

(7:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 1 for 0 yards (69-J.Allen). FUMBLES (69-J.Allen), RECOVERED by MIN-69-J.Allen at GB 1. 69-J.Allen to GB 2 for -1 yards. Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (69-J.Allen).

This was a great defensive stand by the Vikings. On the play before, Winfield made a great open field tackle on Grant at the goal line. This was after Colledge was hurt, so Allen was able to work over rookie T.J. Lang. Rodgers doesn't hold the ball too long, he's doing the right thing by avoiding the rush and giving himself a second chance to make a play on the run before throwing it away. But given the current state of his pass protection, he's holding the ball too long.

(3:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

WR Jordy Nelson muffed a punt return shortly after this TD play, but this was a great run-and-catch. Whenever I see a play like this I wonder why he isn't more involved in the offense.

(1:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 23 for -5 yards (69-J.Allen).

Watching the ESPN highlights, the commentators were starting to downplay the sacks. It was like; yes, it's another sack by Allen, but it's only just the Packers...

(Onside Kick formation) 2-M.Crosby kicks onside 9 yards from GB 30 to GB 39. 18-S.Rice (didn't try to advance) to GB 39 for no gain (16-B.Swain).

Despite the troubles in the secondary, the pass rush, and the awful left tackle pass protection, they were one onside recovery away from giving Rodgers a chance to throw his own last second TD pass in the Metrodome. A great effort by the team to give themselves a chance in the 4th quarter.