SB Nation - P.J. Pope

2009 Denver Broncos - Breaking Down the Roster - Running Backs

Douglas A. Lee — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:30:10 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

7 months ago: From left to right, Denver Broncos rookie running back Knowshon Moreno talks with fullback Peyton Hills and running back LaMont Jordan during the team's football minicamp at Broncos' headquarters in the southeast Denver suburb of Englewood, Colo., on Sunday, May 3, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

The Broncos and Mike Shanahan developed quite a reputation for running the ball over the past 14 seasons. Denver basically became known as Running Back Central, where Shanahan and backs coach Bobby Turner turned several late-rounders into stars. While Shanny and Turner worked their magic in 2008 by turning seventh-rounder Peyton Hillis into a Denver cult hero, the season was noted more for its multitude of backfield injuries. New coach Josh McDaniels is no stranger to running-back attrition, as the 2008 Patriots suffered a similar fate; rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis started 3 games after being elevated from the practice squad.

Lesson learned, McDaniels and GM Brian Xanders spent the offseason turning over the depth chart. Among the pair's first moves were cutting P.J. Pope, Alex Haynes and Anthony Alridge; the departure of Cory Boyd followed soon after. Xanders and McDaniels began adding new runners at the start of free agency, signing Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington in short order. Next came the draft, and the consensus of fans and experts alike was that Denver would emerge with at least one more back; the only question was when that would occur.

Although several fans were wishing for the Broncos to select Knowshon Moreno out of Georgia, most were expecting Denver to go defense-defense and fortify the front 7 with their two first-round picks (#12 and #18). While it appears that Xanders and McDaniels were hoping for such a scenario, the draft day board did not fall that way; highly-ranked 3-4 defenders Tyson Jackson and B.J. Raji went ahead of Denver's slot to Kansas City and Green Bay, respectively. Once their turn came around at #12, Denver's goal was to choose Moreno and DE/LB Robert Ayers with their two selections, in no particular order. Hearing that San Diego was trying to trade up to #13 in order to nab Moreno if Denver passed on the running back, Xanders and McDaniels pounced on the Georgia star.

Following the draft, Denver signed Kestahn Moore as an undrafted free agent; Moore was subsequently released in June. In the week following the draft, Denver cut Selvin Young, who had been projected as the starting back in 2008 before injuries derailed his season. The Broncos then added Darius Walker to the roster, who the Texans had chosen not to re-sign. J.J. Arrington's knee problems led to a failed physical and his eventual release in late May; the transaction cost the Broncos $100,000.

After the break, we'll take a deeper look at who the Broncos enter training camp with, and some expectations as to how the competition will play out:

Knowshon Moreno

#27 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205

Born: Jul 16, 1987

College: Georgia

Exp: Rookie

How Acq: 2009 Draft (1st Round, 12th Overall)

Contract: Unsigned

Moreno arrives in Denver with the highest expectations for a rookie back since Bobby Humphrey was supposed to help put John Elway over the top in 1989. Although several stars have occupied the Broncos backfield over the past 15 years (Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns), each player was able to fly under the radar before assuming the starting role. Not so for Knowshon, whose name is a combination of his father's moniker (Knowledge) and his mother's first name (Varashon). At Middletown South HS in New Jersey, Moreno completed his career as the state's all-time leading scorer and second all-time leading rusher in carrying Middletown to three straight championship titles. Knowshon's accolades at Georgia include being named the SEC's Freshman of the Year in 2007 and an AFCA All-American in 2008. He also joined Herschel Walker as the only Bulldogs to compile back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. It should also be noted that Moreno had 551 touches at Georgia and never fumbled.

Accomplishments aside, Knowshon brings a wide-ranging skill set to the Denver backfield; Coach McDaniels has spoken of Moreno's abilities as a runner, pass catcher and blocker. Wes Bunting of National Football Post wrote pre-draft that "(Knowshon)'s vision, toughness and ability to make people miss are rare." Meanwhile, Russ Lande of The War Room wrote, "Moreno is one of the most physical running back prospects our scouts have evaluated in years. Despite his lack of elite speed and burst, he is faster than expected and consistently outruns defenders who have angles on him. What's truly impressive is his ability to move well in tight quarters, a trait that separates the good NFL backs from the elite ones. He also is a polished receiver."

While it is difficult to project just how much Moreno will play in 2009, it is safe to say that Denver drafted him to be their #1 running back. During McDaniels' four years running the Patriots' offense, he never had a workhorse back at full health; therefore, it is uncertain whether McDaniels truly favors the committee approach he appears to, or a feature back to carry the bulk of the load. That said, look for Knowshon to emerge as Denver's de facto starting running back and to catch a lot more passes than we're used to seeing out of the Denver backfield.

Moreno is not yet under contract; naturally, how quickly he signs a deal may effect his development with the Broncos. As the twelfth pick, a simple look at Ryan Clady's contract (six years, $14.75 million incl. $11.415 million in guarantees) offers the framework for Knowshon's expected deal (with guarantees about 10% higher). Either way, he is quite obviously a lock to make the roster and should receive significant playing time for the Broncos in '09. Knowshon just celebrated his 22nd birthday on Thursday.

Correll Buckhalter

#28 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-0

Weight: 217

Born: Oct 06, 1978

College: Nebraska

Exp: 9th Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (Philadelphia)

Contract: 2/27/2009: Signed a four-year, $10 million contract. The deal includes $1.8 million guaranteed. 2009-2012: Under Contract, 2013: Free Agent

Buckhalter signed with the Broncos in March after 8 seasons with the Eagles, during which he carried the ball 476 times for 2,155 yards (4.5 YPA) and 18 touchdowns in 74 games. CB also has 85 career receptions for 930 yards and 4 touchdowns. While these numbers would suggest low mileage on Buckhalter's knees, those joints haven't been too kind to Correll over the years; a torn ACL in his left knee cost him the 2002 season, while the 2004 and 2005 campaigns were lost to a torn patellar tendon in his right knee. However, Correll has been active for 49 out of a possible 53 games over the past 3 seasons in Philly (including playoffs). 2008 saw Buckhalter at his most productive (in terms of yards from scrimmage) since his rookie season, as he gained 369 yards rushing and 324 yards receiving, along with 4 total touchdowns. He did not fumble in 2008.

Shortly after Denver signed Buckhalter, he was unceremoniously linked to a drug dealer during a Pennsylvania court case. Fortunately, the convicted dealer denied selling marijuana to Buckhalter; no charges have been filed against the running back.

During his time in Philadelphia, Buckhalter was the primary backup to Brian Westbrook, filling in as the starter when necessary but averaging only 7.6 touches per game. While that number may rise in Denver, don't expect his role to change significantly. The Broncos have added Buckhalter for his versatility; Scouts, Inc. says, "Buckhalter is a productive back with a good combination of size and speed, displays good run skills and acceleration through the hole, has above-average hands with good open-field run after the catch ability." As stated above, the Broncos drafted Knowshon Moreno to be their top back; Buckhalter will get his touches, but he is still primarily a backup. It should also be noted that Correll has gotten reps as a kick returner, having taken back 37 kicks for 798 yards (21.6 YPR) for Philly in 2007.

Buckhalter signed a four-year deal in February, including $1.8 million in guarantees and worth as much as $10 million over the length of the contract. Salary details were not released. Those guarantees mean Buckhalter is a virtual lock to make the roster; of course, past history suggests a trip to the IR is always a possibility. Correll will turn 31 following Denver's Week 4 game versus Dallas.

LaMont Jordan

#32 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-10

Weight: 230

Born: Nov 11, 1978

College: Maryland

Exp: 9th Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (New England)

Contract: 3/4/2009: Signed a two-year, $2.5 million contract. The deal included a $500,000 signing bonus. 2009-2010: Under Contract, 2011: Free Agent

Also signed at the outset of free agency, LaMont Jordan joins his fourth NFL team in 2009, and his third squad in three seasons. A versatile back, Jordan racked up 1,588 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns for the Raiders in 2005. However, it was his only standout season in a career thus far marked by underachievement. After spending the 2008 season with the Patriots, Jordan has stated his preference was to stay in New England; when that opportunity did not arise, he chose to follow Josh McDaniels westward. Perhaps he sensed that McDaniels knows best how to utilize his skills; although he did not catch any passes in 2008, Jordan did rack up his best YPA (4.5) on the ground since 2004, with 363 yards gained on 80 carries. What makes Jordan's lack of receptions in '08 stand out is that he hauled in 70 passes during that career-best 2005 season. LaMont fumbled once in 2008.

After spending four years as an understudy to future-HOFer Curtis Martin in New York, Jordan received an $11 million bonus to head west to Oakland. After that productive first season with the Raiders, injuries and perhaps a bit of laziness cut down Jordan's playing time and output in subsequent years. Last month, LaMont had some interesting comments which alluded to his attitude in prior years, saying he was "out here for the offseason program, something I’ve never really done throughout my career...I want to play at a lot less (weight) than what I’ve been playing. ...I never really put in the work to being my best, and that’s what I’m here doing now."

At his best and when healthy, Jordan is quite a load out of the backfield, packing 230 pounds onto a stout 5'10" frame. As those numbers would suggest, Jordan is not an elusive back, but one who is difficult to tackle. Scouts, Inc. says Jordan "can fill a need as a power back who catches the ball out of the backfield and can be hard to tackle once he gets to the second level or catches the ball in the open field." Expect Jordan to be a threat in short-yardage and goal-line situations for Denver, and possibly as a receiver out of the backfield. His knowledge and experience from spending 2008 with McDaniels in New England will surely help him in Denver.

Jordan signed a two-year deal including a $500,000 signing bonus and worth as much as $2.5 million. Like Buckhalter, Jordan's salary is unknown. His small bonus means LaMont is quite expendable in a salary-cap sense; but if he does show up in shape for camp, Jordan's experience with McDaniels in NE, excellent hands and size should make him a keeper. Durability has been an issue for Jordan at times, as a torn MCL landed him in IR in 2006 and calf problems kept him from dressing for eight games in 2008. LaMont will turn 31 after the Broncos' Week 9 contest versus Pittsburgh.

Peyton Hillis

#22 / Fullback / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-1

Weight: 250

Born: Jan 21, 1986

College: Arkansas

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (7th round, 227th overall)

Contract: 7/16/2008: Signed a four-year, $1.755 million contract. The deal included a $49,800 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

As mentioned in the intro, Peyton Hillis went from nearly undrafted to Denver folk hero in a matter of months, thanks to the bone-crushing hits he dished out; and that's when he was carrying the ball. Although Hillis was a star running back in high school, he was relegated to fullback in his time at Arkansas thanks to the arrival of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. After the Broncos selected him, Hillis was seen as a fullback with great hands to catch passes out in the flat. He certainly showed off those skills during Denver's Week 9 loss to Miami, tallying 7 receptions for an eye-popping 116 yards and a touchdown. But his role would grow...

Injuries to Selvin Young, Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain and Andre Hall left Hillis as the Broncos' primary ball-carrier midway through Denver's game in Cleveland on Nov. 6. Hillis punished opposing defenses for several weeks, highlighted by a 22-carry, 129-yard effort with a touchdown at a rainy Meadowlands (with your trusty author in attendance) against the Jets. Unfortunately, Peyton's wonderful rookie campaign came crashing down the next week as a circus-like catch resulted in a torn hamstring against the Chiefs. Despite the brief cameo atop the RB chart, Hillis managed to rack up 343 rushing yards (which led the team, sadly) with a 5.0 YPA and an impressive 5 TDs. His receiving numbers were also notable, with 14 catches for 179 yards and a stunning 12.8 YPR. While these are relatively small samples which should not be extrapolated to a full season, Peyton's statistics are surely evidence that he is a playmaker with versatile skills and a promising future. By the way, Peyton did not fumble in 2008.

The arrival of Moreno and Buckhalter indicate that dreams of Peyton Hillis as Denver's workhorse back are distant from fruition. However, one cannot envision the Broncos' 2009 season without a hefty role for Hillis. As Peyton related to his hometown paper last month, Josh McDaniels recognizes the player's wide skill set; he had the second-year player "getting snaps at running back, wide receiver, fullback and tight end." McDaniels offered a glowing review of Hillis, saying "He's got great hands, and he's a very tough runner to bring down when you give him the ball. So he'll do a lot different things for us." Look for Peyton to fulfill myriad roles in 2009; he'll be featured at times in one-back sets, he'll be motioning out wide to catch passes, he'll be lining up at times as a fullback, and maybe we'll even see him as the tailback in a two-back set from time to time.

Hillis is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. He is a lock for the roster and should see significant playing time. Peyton doesn't turn 24 until during the 2009 Playoffs.

Spencer Larsen

#46 / Fullback / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-2

Weight: 240

Born: Mar 04, 1984

College: Arizona

Exp:2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (6th round, 183rd overall)

Contract: 7/9/2008: Signed a four-year, $1.801 million contract. The deal included a $97,500 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

As a late-round selection last year, Spencer Larsen made the Denver roster on the strength of his special-teams play and versatility. His stadium-shaking hit on a kick return in Week 4 was arguably Denver's best tackle of the year and the only positive memory from that horrific game in Kansas City. Later on in the season, Larsen made headlines as a starter on offense (fullback), defense (linebacker) and special teams (kick coverage); he was the first Bronco in team history to do so. In fact, he received the Diet Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week for his efforts. A groin injury slowed Larsen down in December, and he did not play in Denver's losses versus thePanthers and Bills.

Although Larsen's versatility means he offers Denver roster flexibility (backup FB and ILB are the same guy), he is (to this point) nothing special as far as fullbacks go. MHR's own Styg50 wrote "Larsen was only adequate as a blocking FB however, and he has mentioned how uncomfortable he would be if he was ever asked to carry the rock," in his review at season's end. Larsen did not carry the ball or catch a pass in 2008 for Denver. However, he needn't worry much; if the past four seasons in New England are any indication, there won't be a lot of touches allocated to the fullback position.

Larsen is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. The fact that Spencer fills more than one spot on the depth chart means he would be a very difficult player to cut. Having spent 2003 and 2004 on a Mormon mission in Chile, Larsen entered the NFL at an older age than most, turning 25 this past March.

Ryan Torain

#42 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Born: Aug 10, 1986

College: Arizona State

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (5th round, 139th overall)

Contract: 7/9/2008: Signed four-year, $1.903 million contract. The deal included a $198,000 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

Ryan Torain entered the league with some rather unfair expectations. As a running back and a fifth-round choice of the Denver Broncos, Torain was doomed to fail from the very beginning. After all, his draft position and injury-shortened senior year at Arizona State made Ryan the obvious heir apparent to the crown of Late-Round Denver Running Back Comes From Nowhere to Top 1,000 Yards and Turn Every Fantasy Football League Upside Down. The shoes of Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary are hard to fill; Torain suffered a freak elbow injury during training camp, and throughout his recovery there were whispers that he would be the starting running back for Denver upon his return.

Granted, the reputations Mike Shanahan and Bobby Turner were bestowed as Running Back Whisperers was not undeserved; they did often turn what other teams deemed chicken you-know-what into chicken salad. But Torain, who has seemingly never been able to stay healthy for more than a couple months, had no chance. His pro debut resulted in a single yard gained on three carries (yes, that's 3 carries, 1 yard) versus Miami. A few nights later, the national stage was to be Torain's; Denver's matchup against the Browns was televised on the NFL Network and the previously-mentioned slew of RB injuries meant it was finally Torain Time. Although Ryan showed an odd and upright running style, it worked for most of the first half, as he racked up 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Savvy fantasy-football owners everywhere rejoiced. Torain did not fumble.

But as quickly as Torain Time had arrived, it departed just like that; an awkward tackle near halftime turned out to be a torn ACL in Ryan's left knee. His rookie season was over, after just 15 carries and six quarters of football. In addition to the knee and elbow injuries of 2008, Torain lost much of his senior season to a fractured toe. As a sophomore at Butler Community College in 2004, he missed several games with an ankle sprain. The hope, of course, is that Torain is someday able to find better health (fortune?) and make good on the promise he showed while at ASU (93.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry in 19 games). Those numbers, along with his large measurables, make Torain sound like a smaller version of Brandon Jacobs. However, his aforementioned upright running style mean he's more often receiving than doling out contact.

Torain is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. Health is clearly an issue; even if he is able to practice and perform in training camp, Torain may still find himself in competition with Darius Walker for the final RB spot on the roster. But his size, talent, potential, and injury history make Ryan much more likely to be on the 53-man roster, IR or PUP list than on the Broncos' cut list. Torain did participate in individual drills in June minicamps with a brace on his left knee, which is obviously a good sign for his future in Denver. Ryan will turn 23 during the upcoming training camp.

Darius Walker

#43 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205

Born: Oct 21, 1985

College: Notre Dame

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (Houston)

Contract: 5/7/2009: Signed a two-year contract

photo via static.nfl.com

Walker entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with Gary Kubiak's Texans in 2007. A star for the Fighting Irish, Darius was highly productive despite only seeing action in four games with Houston. He tallied 264 yards and 1 TD on 58 carries, plus 81 yards on 13 receptions for a total of 345 YFS; these are impressive numbers for any back, let alone an undrafted rookie. Walker has not fumbled in the NFL. 2008 was a lost year for Walker, as he spent 5 weeks on the Texans' active roster but saw no action; he otherwise had three practice-squad stints - two with Houston and one with St. Louis.

Despite those encouraging statistics, Walker is apparently not that great at anything in particular. As Scouts, Inc. put it, Walker "is not quite as big as you'd like and not quite as fast as you'd like, but he does have some quality running skills...He adds some value as a situational player who can spell the starter and run routes out of the backfield, but does not have enough physical skills to make you think he has a chance to ever be a starter." It does not appear that Walker has had any notable injury problems.

Walker signed a two-year deal with Denver; terms of the contract were not released. It's safe to assume Walker received a minimal signing bonus (figure less than $100,000) and money will not be a factor in the decision whether to keep him on the roster. If the Broncos' other backs are healthy, it would be a surprise for Walker to make the 53-man roster. Assuming another team does not snatch him up come August, don't be surprised to find him on Denver's practice squad. From my research, it appears that Walker still has practice-squad eligibility; he has only accrued one season (2007) and during that year he dressed for fewer than nine games (6, to be exact). Thanks to broncobear for help with that one. Walker will turn 24 following Denver's Week 6 Monday Night game in San Diego.

Overall Outlook

The common threads which seem to link Denver's running backs are versatility and sure-handedness; Josh McDaniels clearly prioritizes players who have the ability to run with the football, to get out of the backfield and catch passes, hang onto the football when they've got it, and to stay in and block when more protection is necessary. Expect to see more passes thrown the backs' way, if Josh McDaniels' time in New England is any indication. Look for Moreno to be the starter, with Buckhalter and Hillis seeing a good amount of touches, Larsen filling in at times as fullback, Jordan getting carries in short-yardage and goal-line situations, with Torain's role dependent upon his health, and Walker on the bubble. As for strategy, it is safe to say that Denver will return to a more balanced offense in 2009 than we saw last year; more runs near the goal line and more draws to combat the 3-4 defenses of San Diego and Kansas City. For more on Josh McDaniels and the running game, check out this earlier piece from broncobear and myself - Divining the McDaniels Way.

AFC West Offseason Progress Reports by Position: RB

John (obviousman) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:05:22 -0000

Considering the overwhelming lack of response to the first installment of this series, I considered stopping it altogether. Then I re-read it and liked it. Seriously, what's not to like? Even if you don't agree with all of my opinions, it stands as another reminder of the turmoil this division has faced outside of San Diego. Two of the three teams have new starting quarterbacks that have question-marks attached to them. The other one has a new veteran breathing down his neck for the starting job and a new offensive coordinator. What's not to love as a Chargers fan?

So I'm going to try this again. I hope there's a better response this time as we analyze the backfields of AFC West teams and rate the offseason changes that have (or haven't) been made.

via nicklohr7.files.wordpress.com

San Diego Chargers: Change by addition and possibly by approach. Going into 2008, the consensus was that LaDainian Tomlinson was the #1 back and would return to form after his injury in late 2007. Jacob Hester had been drafted to be his backup and to replace Michael Turner. Well, very quickly we learned that Hester could be an effective player but the coaching staff obviously thought he didn't have what it took to be a backup and Darren Sproles came in to do the job.

Sproles actually wound up outperforming Turner's 2007 performance. Take a look:

	RushAtt	RushYds	RushTDs	RushYPC	Rec	RecYds	RecTDs
Turner (2007)	71	316	1	4.5	4	16	0
Sproles (2008)	61	330	1	5.4	29	342	5

What drop-off? After looking at these numbers, I almost went back on my idea that Sproles should be the 3rd string RB. Actually, that phrase isn't right. I believe the Chargers should have a RB by committee. There's so many reasons for it. One, it'll extend LT's career. Two, LT and Sproles would be healthier and more rested for the playoffs. Three, it gives Gartrell Johnson a chance to grow on the field without much pressure. I could go on and on. Anyways, I almost went back on that after seeing how successful Sproles was last season. I almost said "Ah, the hell with it, give Sproles more carries and keep Gartrell on the bench." Then I remembered last year's running game. It was poor because LT was hurt, true, but the thing that stood out the most was how it lacked versatility. Every time the ball was handed off the defense knew that the RB wanted to go outside. They knew the RB would try and win the battle with speed instead of power and there was nobody on the team to change their mind.

Jacob Hester was drafted to be that power back that gives the offense versatility. It's who he was in college. Although he was small, he was a bit of a bruiser but also had speed and soft hands. Other NFL teams were worried that he wouldn't be able to be a bruiser in the NFL and they may be right (when it comes to his running, anyway). Gartrell Johnson, to me, equals all the reasons I mentioned above. Because of their size, Sproles is just as big a risk as Tomlinson to get worn down and injured. I don't really care if either of those guys see the field in the first 5 games of the season. I want them late in the season and in the playoffs to be at the top of their game. So, what did the Chargers do to their running game over the offseason? They had their FB beef up and created some versatility in the backfield by drafting a power back.

Offseason Grade: B+. My grade at the end of the season will be more telling. I'm still worried that these three guys are not going to be used the right way. I'm concerned we're going to get to Week 17 and Gartrell, with less than 20 carries under his belt, will have to start a game because LT is hurt and Sproles isn't trusted to be a starter. I don't want playoff weeks centered around LT's injuries anymore. I'm hopefuly we're past that and this pick gives me hope, but we'll see...

via i.a.cnn.net

Kansas City Chiefs: Larry Johnson is a bum. There, I said it. My definition of a "bum" when it comes to sports is somebody who is so talented that their team keeps relying on them, even though year after year the guy lets them down. Is it LJ's fault? Well, the off-the-field problems certainly are, but the on-the-field problems may not be.

In 2006, Larry Johnson carried the rock 416 times. That seems like a lot, doesn't it? Well, it's the most amount of carries by one running back in one season in the history of professional football. Some other guys right behind him on that list? Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. Two guys that physically broke down after being overworked. Not only that, LJ turns 30 in November. So his body's working against him already. Since that 2006 season, in which Johnson went to the Pro Bowl and carried the Chiefs to a 9-7 record, Larry has had a hard time staying healthy. Yet, the Chiefs keep looking for him to return to form.

In 2007, Johnson managed to get into 8 games. In 2008, it was 12. Want a picture of how his performance, when healthy, has gone down? Lets look at how efficient he's been over the course of his career.

	RushAtt	RushYPC	TDs	Fumbles
2004	120	4.8	11	0
2005	336	5.2	21	5
2006	416	4.3	19	2
2007	158	3.5	4	1
2008	193	4.5	5	5

Every team wants a guy that can score 20 times and fumble less than 5 times each season, but fumbling as many times as you're getting in the end zone should not make you the centerpiece of an offense. Plain and simple, LJ doesn't have anything left. I'm actually surprised he had those big seasons in 2005 and 2006 considering how he was run into the ground at Penn State, but basically have the first-half of 2004 off probably helped that.

So in 2008 the Chiefs drafted Jamaal Charles. He was effective when he played (5.3 Yards Per Carry), but the coaching staff seemed to prefer Johnson. Going into 2009, LJ is again the starter. He's been a two-time Pro Bowler, a player with off-the-field issues, injury-prone and someone who is not afraid to speak out against his coach to the media. Why is KC still pinning their hopes on him? Because he's a bum, and they're getting suckered in. It happens to the best of us (I'm looking at you, David Boston).

Offseason Grade: D. Okay, so Charles is a year older and wiser. That's the only reason they don't get an F (LJ is another year older as well). Jamaal is also probably a better fit for Haley's offense because he's a great receiver coming out of the backfield. He should be given the starter's role and Johnson should be shopped, but that's not happening this year. Maybe next year. The Chiefs drafted little-known Javarris Williams out of Tennessee State this year, but if he sees the field it'll be as a FB only.

via www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Denver Broncos: Okay, let's see if I can cover it all without my head exploding.

2008 backfield: Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain

Before I get to the 2009 backfield, a crazy statistic. The Broncos didn't have a single running back with more than 76 carries last season. LT can get to that number in 3 games and they didn't have a single guy get to it in an entire season. Peyton Hillis started the most games for them last season, with 6, and even some of those he started as the fullback. What an unbelievable season for the Broncos backfield.

2009 backfield: Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, ~~J.J. Arrington~~, Peyton Hillis, LaMont Jordan, Ryan Torain, Darius Walker

Arrington is crossed out because he was signed by the Broncos and later released, I believe because he failed a physical. Is Moreno an improvement over Pittman? Sure. I could see that. Is Buckhalter better than Selvin Young and Tatum Bell? Hmmmmm. I don't know. I'd say he's about equal, but he's older and a bigger injury risk. If it would've been cheaper I would've stuck with Selvin Young. Torain has potential but will probably never see the field now and I'm unsure why they even grabbed Darius Walker. Four new RBs for a coach that's known for his passing game. Odd, isn't it?

Offseason Grade: C+. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming that Moreno is good. Not great, but good. I'm a little concerned with a change in the run-blocking philosophy because those guys are too small to do anything else but cut-block. The Jordan and Walker signings just seem like the team is planning for their RBs to start dropping like flies again. This grade is very dependant on how Moreno performs and if Buckhalter can contribute anything without getting injured.

via www1.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Oakland Raiders: I gave the Raiders a good grade when I was doing the progress reports for QBs and I immediately noticed traffic coming in from Raiders sites and forums. They liked what I said. They said "Even Chargers fans can see that this has been a great offseason for the Raiders!" I want to answer that by saying I do think that the Raiders have had a better offseason than KC and Denver, in terms of players that were brought in, but that doesn't mean I'm picking them for second in the division. Nor do I think they'll beat the Chargers this year. With that being said, get ready for another good grade for the Raiders....

The Raiders have a three-headed running game. Justin Fargas carries the bulk of the load (because he's the most consistent, in terms of performance and health), Darren McFadden is the big play guy who needs to stay fresh and healthy and Michael Bush is a bruiser who can put away games when Oakland has the lead. All three of those guys were good last season and there was no need to replace them. So the Raiders did the smartest thing you could possibly do for a backfield of young, talented running backs. They signed Lorenzo "get behind me for 1000 yards" Neal to be their starting fullback. Then they started filling holes on their offensive line with good free agent players, like Khalif Barnes.

Are you one of those people that think the signing of Lorenzo Neal doesn't mean that much? Let's look at the RBs that Neal has lead to 1,000 yards seasons:

Adrian Murrell
Warrick Dunn
Eddie George (twice)
Corey Dillion (twice)
LaDainian Tomlinson (five times)

...and the only reason he's had any seasons without a 1,000 yard rusher behind him is because he's played for some teams that split carries (like the Raiders). Coming up on 40 years of age, Neal isn't what he once was but he's certainly good enough to improve the Raiders run-blocking. He'll get the most out of those three talented backs.

Offseason Grade: A. Any time you can sign a future Hall of Famer to be in on every running play, that's going to get you a good grade in my book. With signings like Garcia and Neal, the Raiders are trying to add some greatly-needed veteran leadership to the locker room and in film study. I don't know that it'll turn into more than two or three more wins in 2009 from 2008, but it should help all of their young players in the long run. The Chargers used the same philosophy years ago by bringing in players Neal, Roman Oben, Chris Chambers, Marlon McCree and Randall Godfrey.

Fun Facts About 2008 - A 2009 Denver Broncos Draft Analysis

Douglas A. Lee — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

For many draft "experts" and Broncos fans, the reaction to Denver's choice of Knowshon Moreno at #12 on Saturday resulted in cries of, "Not another running back!!!!!!"

Browse more photos »

Draftivus Weekend 2009 may be over, but it seems to me that the only draft-related activity as fun as predicting the outcome is in sifting through the results and grading them. Sure, it's a little early to do so; but we all do it, and I'm pretty sure we all seek out what the "experts" have to say in order to validate our own opinions (or cast them aside as idiots). Here are some of the reactions I've seen over the past 24 hours on MHR and across the web, and I paraphrase...

How could the Broncos not draft more D-Linemen or Linebackers?
What?! Another running back?! Denver already signed Arrington, Buckhalter and Jordan in addition to having about 12 holdovers.
More defensive backs? What, are they going to start 9 DBs? How many corners and safeties could the Broncos possibly use?
Josh McDaniels is a moron because he didn't draft the guys I wanted him to!!!

Personally, here is what I thought as the Draft approached...

Obviously, we'll come away with at least a couple of D-Linemen, including a nose tackle.
And of course, we'll end up with an excellent new linebacker.

Obviously, I was wrong. But I'm no expert.

Now, let's examine some undeniable facts...

The 2008 Denver Broncos were 8-8
Denver's so-called "explosive offense" scored 370 points, good for 16th-best in the NFL
They allowed 448 points, which was 3rd-worst in the league
The Broncos' point differential was -78, or 25th-best league-wide.
Seven teams had a worse point differential than Denver, and those seven teams all missed the playoffs, averaging a record of 3-13.
Only one team (Green Bay) with a positive point-differential won fewer than 8 games.
The Broncos lost to Oakland by 21 points (at home) and at Kansas City by 14 points. The Raiders and Chiefs combined for 5 wins against teams not named the Denver Broncos.
Denver lost to the Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Panthers and Chargers by an aggregate score of 187-67, which averages out to 37.4 to 13.4.
At various points during the 2008 Season, the Broncos were down to running backs such as P.J. Pope, Cory Boyd, a seventh-rounder in Peyton Hillis, a fifth-rounder in Ryan Torain, and a guy who had been selling mobile phones at the mall (Tatum Bell).
Denver had the 5th-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL.
The Broncos' time-of-possession ranked 24th in the league.
During this same season, the Broncos had folks like Vernon Fox (cut by the Skins), Josh Bell (cut by the Chargers), Josh Barrett (a seventh-rounder), Roderick Rogers (dumped by Minnesota), Calvin Lowry (cast aside by Tennessee), and Herana-Daze Jones (dumped by Cincinnati) either starting or playing crucial roles on the defense.
The Broncos' pass defense allowed opponents to connect on 67.3% of their attempts, which was 4th worst in the league.
The Broncos intercepted 6 passes in 2008, 2nd worst only to the Lions. One of those picks was made by DT Marcus Thomas, who promptly fumbled the ball away on the ensuing "runback."

Recognize this 2008 Bronco? Me neither.

I realize these are some depressing numbers, but this is 2009. I offer the stats above to remind everyone that 2008 wasn't such a hot year for our beloved Broncos. The '08 version of the Broncos couldn't control the clock, couldn't produce sustained drives and couldn't hold onto the ball on offense. On defense, they couldn't rush the passer, stop the run, defend the pass or take the ball away. Injuries left us with guys we practically picked up off the street playing running back, safety and cornerback.

Didn't everyone here learn from 2008 that a team can never have enough running backs and defensive backs? Keep in mind that the veterans Denver signed at those positions this offseason, in Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill and Andre' Goodman will all be at least 30 years old this season. They will hopefully provide skill today, but they will definitely not do so in the distant future.

The 2008 Broncos had a lot of holes; while Atlanta and Miami were both wonderful examples of remarkable one-year turnarounds, their stories are exceptions. This team needs to be competitive first; if they can also win more games than they lose in 2009, I see that as a bonus. We're talking about a team which fired almost its entire coaching staff and enters 2009 with a new starting quarterback. For me, the Broncos were so bad in 2008 that I cannot expect every hole to be filled by 2009. We're talking about a process here, and it sure seems that Josh McDaniels, Brian Xanders and Company are making their way towards that end.

Yesterday, we saw a draft strategy we're to this point unfamiliar with. Yes, Mike Shanahan is an all-time great and brought home two Championships. However, when drafting for need over taking the best player, the Broncos ended up with guys like Marcus Nash, Paul Toviessi, Ashley Lelie (over Ed Reed), Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder, Deltha O'Neal and Willie Middlebrooks. The new regime quite obviously sees the draft through a different viewpoint, and when their top choices went off the board (Raji and Jackson), they chose Knowshon Moreno. Not because they came in wanting a running back, but because they felt he was the best player on the board. That's how Minnesota got Adrian Peterson, by the way.

How about this guy? If you do recognize him, you'll probably be glad to know that he's no longer on the Broncos...

As I mentioned above, I'm no draft maven; but what I like about the "experts" reactions is this - everyone who criticizes the Broncos' 2009 Draft, from Jamie Dukes, to Pete Prisco, to Mel Kiper, to Todd McShay offers this basic thought - they love the players Denver drafted, they just don't think Denver filled the holes they would have chosen to fill. Personally, when I read draft analysis the day after, I want to see that Denver chose players widely accepted as being excellent football players. Used to be that our draft choices were either "undersized," "injured during senior season," "questionable character," "slow for the position," among other lovely tags. Today, they're "solid citizens" and excellent football players, but why do the Broncos need another defensive back or running back? As for where they'll play, I think we should leave that up to the Broncos' Coach and General Manager.

I'm not trying to provide a sunny outlook here; I'm just examining some facts. Some of you are happy about our '09 Draft results, others are bewildered. Both viewpoints are just fine by me - but don't forget the prism of 2008's season when looking at the makeup of the 2009 Broncos.

Divining the McDaniels Way, Part 2 - The Running Game

Emmett Smith — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:30:09 -0000

This series is the outcome of a month-long collaboration between nycbroncosfan and broncobear. In general, NYC covered the stats and Doc handled most of the writing and analysis. We hope that it sheds light on some of the questions that have arisen as to just what, exactly, Josh McDaniels has been doing with the New England offense over the past four years. It also looks at Jay Cutler's time as the primary starter in Denver over the past two years to establish where the two Patriots and Broncos do and do not match up. We thoroughly enjoyed working on this project and hope that you will take just as much pleasure in reading it. Hopefully it will answer some of your questions about what to expect of the 2009 Broncos, and we look forward to your comments and critiques. Many thanks to our esteemed colleagues styg50 and hoosierteacher for their input, and to Zappa for his invaluable aid in managing the code and the templates.

Note: In light of Denver's trade of Jay Cutler to the Bears, we decided to push back the schedule of our series. Today we present Part 2, with Part 3 now scheduled for Friday, April 10th and Part 4 following on Tuesday, April 14th.

The Broncos Running Attack

In Part 1 of our look at The McDaniels Way, we provided a view of what new Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels may look to achieve on offense in 2009. Part 1 covered more of the general goals - higher efficiency of yards and point-scoring, better control of the game clock, and more success in red-zone and goal-to-go situations. Today, we will address the facet so many of us have/had strongly identified with Broncos football, especially with the noted successes of the recently-departed Mike Shanahan - the Denver running game.

As noted in NYC's The Fall of the Denver Rushing Attack, the Broncos' commitment to the run has waned significantly in recent years. After averaging 508 carries per season from 1995 to 2005, the 2008 Broncos only ran the ball 387 times. While they maintained a strong YPA (Yards Per Attempt) of 4.8, their relatively small number of carries led to fewer first downs via the ground game (103 versus an average of 125/year from 1995-2005) and poor clock control (28:43 in '08 versus 32:15 from '95-'08).

In terms of gross yardage, the falloff went from an average of 2,264 yards per season (1995-2005) to just 1,862 in 2008. The rushing attack also failed to produce big individual games, as the '08 Broncos only topped 175 rushing yards once, although that number was padded by a 71-yard carry by WR Eddie Royal on an end-around (in the crushing home loss to Buffalo, incidentally). Compare that to the Broncos of 1995-2005, who topped 175 yards in a game on an average of 4.6 times per season. Without the benefit of a strong running game, one which never even dominated a single game in 2008, the pressure was focused squarely upon Jay Cutler and the passing attack.

At first glance, the hiring of Josh McDaniels seemed only a continuation of Denver's move to a pass-dominant offense. This is certainly a natural and excusable assumption, as Tom Brady's 4,806 yards and 50 touchdown passes of 2007 quickly come to mind. However, it is important to consider that 2007 may have been an anomaly, a remarkable alignment of the stars which allowed for arguably the greatest offensive performance by a team in any one year. Even so, the '07 Pats ranked 9th in the NFL in rushing attempts with 451 and 5th in rushing touchdowns with 17; while not dominant rushing numbers, they certainly evidence a commitment to the run. The Patriots' 2006 and 2008 numbers show an even greater offensive balance, which we will share in a bit.

So, what can we expect of Josh McDaniels' Denver Broncos when it comes to running the football?

The O-Line

Performance of Pats and Broncos O-Lineman in 2008 and 2009 Season Age
	NE Starters	'09 Age	Starts	Sacks	Pen	Sks+Pen	DEN Starters	'09 Age	Starts	Sacks	Pen	Sks+Pen
LT	Light	31	16	7.5	1	8.5	Clady	23	16	0.5	3	3.5
LG	Mankins	27	16	5	2	7	Hamilton	32	16	2.5	6	8.5
C	Koppen	30	16	4.5	2	6.5	Wiegmann	36	16	1	3	4
RG	Neal(Yates)	33(29)	9(7)	2(6.25)	2(1)	4(7/25	Kuper	27	16	0	4	4
RT	Kaczur(LeVoir)	30(27)	14(2)	4(2)	3(0)	7(2)	Harris	24	16	2.5	2	4.5
Tot/Avg		30.2	80	31.25	11	42.25		28.4	80	6.5	18	24.5

The above chart is a position-by-position comparison of New England and Denver's starting offensive lines from 2008. Although it mostly deals with passing-down numbers, in some areas the chart gives us clues about rushing as well. Looking across the LT column, Matt Light will be 31 years old during the 2009 NFL season. He started 16 games in 2008, was charged with 7.5 sacks and 1 penalty was accepted and attributed to him. Continuing across are Ryan Clady's numbers. Looking below at the RG row, right guard Stephen Neal started only 9 games, while Billy Yates filled in for the other 7 games. Yates' stats follow Neal's in parentheses - the same goes for Mark LeVoir, who filled in for Nick Kaczur in 2 contests. The stats attributed to Yates and LeVoir are part of the Pats' total, in order to adequately compare the starting lines of both teams: 5 starters x 16 games = 80 starts per team. What also must be noted is that team sack totals do not match up with those sacks attributed to the offensive line. For example, many of us know the Broncos' quarterbacks were only sacked 12 times in 2008. However, only 6.5 of those were attributed to the starting linemen, while the balance were charged to backups, tight ends and to the quarterbacks themselves (coverage sacks).

The issue of injuries may explain some things that came up on video. After watching the six games of film, the only real surprise that Doc had was the uneven work of the Patriots' offensive line. He said,

"I was surprised at how poorly they played in certain areas. That made it hard to obtain or understand some of the info on tendencies. Often, the line wasn't effective enough in the run or, especially, in the passing game. And yet, that's hard to see if you look at the numbers - unless you look carefully.

I watched a lot of running plays that were blown up at or behind the line of scrimmage because the O-Line couldn't move the defenders. Often the runners managed to get small yards anyway, and that's more a tribute to the runners than anything else. The passing problems showed up more in the stats.

However, even after saying that I have to point out the other side: according to FootballOutsiders.com, NE had the 5th-best rate of being stuffed, at 21% (Denver was 1st at 17%). Denver had the #1 run-blocking efficiency - but NE was #2. Again - they are very efficient. But for the Pats, one reason that number is so good was that the RBs commonly broke tackles behind the line, fell forward and almost inevitably gained a couple of yards. They had a very tough group, and adding Jordan to the Broncos, knee surgery and all, is a great addition. They also had the best percentage of 1st downs per carry at 28.3% (Denver was second at 26.6%) even though they were fourth in the league for rushing attempts (513).

A lot of that was the scheme, and some of the rest could be attributed to simple effectiveness at carrying out assignments on the part of the RBs - and to Cassel, who ran often with 73 attempts and a total of 270 yards and a 3.7 average. In his two full seasons, Cutler averaged 50.5 rushes for only 202.5 yards, so the difference there is obvious.

You also have to look at where they run and run well, and where they don't. They weren't productive at left or right end, or at right tackle, although left tackle (except on pass pro) and the middle of the line plays were usually very good."

There are discrepancies between the New England offensive line's certain very good stats and their obvious failures. For example, they were 1st in the league for rushing 1st-downs with 145, but they were only ranked 19th-best in the league converting on 3rd-and-short via the run, a category that is telling for the line. The Patriots' offensive line was quite a mixed bag in 2008, and that showed on the film. We will talk about the passing side of their equation tomorrow but on the rushing side, Doc saw players who were missing assignments and who weren't getting to the second level consistently.

A brief look across the league shows that the Patriots' O-Line is older than the norm, and that the right side in particular saw a lot of injuries over the course of the season, which may be part of the reason that they weren't as good as expected. Their tackles are seven years older than the Broncos', on average. Even factoring in the advanced ages of Casey Wiegmann and Ben Hamilton, the New England line is two years older than the Broncos across the starting five. Their size/weight numbers are roughly comparable to the Broncos.

We asked styg50 about the issue of offensive linemen and aging. Was the gap scheme wearing on the players? Could age, at about 30, be the issue with their poor play, (especially on passing downs)? He said,

"My first thought, is that everybody is different, so some guys might not be affected while other guys are significantly affected. The main trait of the pulling guard(or center) is good footwork, and to a lesser extent the core strength to re-engage quickly on the move, which has "balance" as its primary indicator when watching them. It is reasonable to assume that as a player ages, his footwork might suffer and become "heavier" or slower, but I think this applies more to heavier linemen who stay heavy. O-Linemen are generally no stranger to heavy lifting and maintaining and increasing lean muscle mass, but as they age they need to be open to the idea of increasing flexibility and agility, which should always lean towards playing at lighter and lighter weights.

The plus side of aging as a pulling lineman, is that you have to be able to locate and line up your block, which becomes even more difficult if it is intended to occur at the second level, and that is more about experience than anything. Hamilton and Nalen were good examples of guys who could block out to the third level, which is exceptionally difficult for a lineman, and they could do it because of how quick they were/are and how savvy they are about lining up the block. Rookies and young players didn't stand a chance against them."

Regarding the Broncos, Styg added,

"As to zone-block increasing players' longevity, I think it has more to do with what players have been tapped for zone-block: smarter, lighter, more agile. The smarter could aid them in whole-body health, the lighter reduces Isaac Newton's effect on them, and the agile protects them in the game itself, helping them avoid contortion strains and the like. The zone-block seems as likely to me as any other system to expose players to abuse by virtue of the system itself, but HT can answer that question better than I can. What wears players out more than anything is going to the ground and having to get back up again (barring the occasional 79-yard fumble return, which is more about oxygen than anything) and that occurs a lot in zone-block."

HT (hoosierteacher) was kind enough to weigh in as well. His comments centered on two things - the abilities of the players in terms of balance and flexibility, and their abilities to work together:

"The Denver OLmen are culled from the masses because they have either the inherent ability or trained ability to use flexibility and agility from early on. Teams with less of a focus on pure zone-blocking will age less gracefully. "Big and strong" diminishes over time. Flexibility and agility, if maintained from an early age, can last much longer on the football field.

I hate to keep coming back to martial arts. I know you and Styg are experts in the field, while I'm just an amazed spectator. (lol). But you guys will appreciate the analogy. The old man who is a martial-arts master seems to have the advantage over younger men who are more physically fit. In MMA competitions, we never seem to see these old men. But I know that I've been to studios (dojos) where I've seen old (frankly ancient) guys who have techniques and experience to beat up on the younger guys present.

While football is a little different, there is a similarity. While age slows all of us, it is going to slow physical qualities (such as strength) quicker than skills that are harder to quantify (such as balance, agility, footwork). Teams that look for these types of players are going to have players with more longevity. They also get the boost of having players that play together longer, which is a key for any offensive line.

The only thing that really keeps too many teams from moving towards zone-blocking is the pool of players to draw from. When too many teams try to move towards zone-blocking, the pool decreases. The teams already established in ZB have enough players who have played together in the system, while newer teams will struggle because they have to get more players from the drafts. If enough teams could establish themselves, colleges (the suppliers) would feed the demand, but it would take several years. In the meantime, teams with successful zone-blocking linemen should hold onto what they have, needing only to pick up a player here and there."

Professor Barber, the master instructor who Doc had the privilege to train under in martial arts used to assure him that "old age and treachery will conquer youth and skill." Given that and the direction of our two resident experts, we suspect that the issues of injury to the lower body, combined with a need to frequently adjust to different combinations of players were at the heart of New England's woes along the offensive line.

On the other end of the offensive-line universe, Josh McDaniels has to salivate at the idea of installing his scheme behind what is arguably the best line in the NFL. They are mostly younger (and Casey Wiegmann still has great skills) with Ryan Clady entering only his second year and Ryan Harris just his third (second as a starter). Chris Kuper is looking at only his fourth season. Ben Hamilton is 31, and Wiegmann is pretty spry for an old man (Casey will turn 36 during training camp). Primary backup Kory Lichtensteiger is getting good early reviews in the middle, and Tyler Polumbus showed promise at tackle, even taking some reps at center..

Small wonder, then, that the Broncos' new coach kept Rick Dennison to coach the line and Bobby Turner to coach the running backs. Josh McDaniels is a very smart young man, and those decisions were probably not very difficult for him. The Broncos may need better depth, but the line is first-rate in its current incarnation. After watching this film, Doc appreciated it even more. So will McDaniels. You may not see another season where every Broncos lineman starts all sixteen games, but these guys are very, very good nevertheless.

Much has been made regarding Josh McDaniels' comments on instituting a higher level of 'gap' blocking as well as the zone-block scheme. It is important for the fan to recognize that Denver ran some solid gap-blocking last year, and that Hamilton and Kuper both excel in pulling; so the change should not be a concern. In fact, the reality is that no major changes are indicated. But McDaniels is sitting on something new in how the line and the running backs will function, and he so far isn't letting much slip. McDaniels only said,

"We did more gap schemes in New England, where we're going to pull a guard. The good thing about Denver is they've done those things, and they've got really good guards to be able to do that."

Watching the Broncos O-Line closely, both Hamilton and Kuper, light-footed as guards go, were pulling on several plays each game. The biggest difference Doc sees is that the Broncos were even better at it than New England was.

As an aside, a recent segment on NFL Total Access suggested that Ryan Clady will be the 'Surprise' player of 2009. We can only suggest that the hosts weren't watching much film, as Clady was arguably the great surprise player of 2008. The only shock that he could provide in 2009 is if he's not elevated from Second-Team to First-Team All-Pro.

Ryan Harris was nearly as good, and Denver's pair of tackles is equal or superior to any other set of bookends in the NFL. Kuper has turned into a fine young guard, and if Ben Hamilton is the Broncos' 'weak link' as some have stated, Denver has but some very small problems to deal with. Wiegmann's contract will likely be renegotiated to keep him in town for a couple of more years, and in that time the Broncos will have settled on their backups and groomed their new center. Lichtensteiger may be best at either center or guard, but Polumbus has taken snaps effectively at center as well as at tackle. The Broncos probably need one more good backup, and they have some options already on the practice squad. they will, if our member's drafts are any indication, take another in the draft.

The Running Backs

Rush/Pass Splits
	Rush %	Pass %
DEN '07	44%	56%
DEN '08	38%	62%
DEN Avg	39%	61%
NE '05	42.6%	57.4%
NE '06	47.3%	52.7%
NE '07	42.6%	57.4%
NE '08	46.8%	53.2%
NE Avg	43.1%	56.9%

In terms of total plays, New England ran the ball 46.8% of the time in 2008. Over the 4-year period of 2005-2008, the Patriots exhibited a 43.1% rush, 56.9% pass balance. Despite their pass-first reputed approach, they like a fairly balanced attack. Meanwhile, the Broncos were the second-most pass-reliant offense in the NFL, behind only Arizona and tied with New Orleans last season. Obviously, Denver's running back injuries and the elevation of Jeremy Bates to play-caller factored in. Bates' preference for passing was quickly obvious to even casual Broncos fans. That reliance on the pass placed a lot on Jay Cutler, but it also led to predictability in the passing game, which we will discuss in Part 3. Few fans will mind the fact that Bates won't be deciding if or when to run the ball in 2009.

However, it should be noted that New England also suffered several injuries to their offensive backfield; top backs Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris all missing significant time. This forced the Patriots to sign BenJarvus Green-Ellis from their practice squad and give him the bulk of carries for two games. Interestingly, their commitment to the run did not wane - with Green-Ellis as their primary ball carrier in weeks 9 and 10 versus the Colts and Bills, respectively, New England rushed 75 times and Matt Cassel dropped back to pass 70 times. This represents a 51.7% run/pass split. No, the Patriots' and Broncos' backfield situations were not identical, but New England's run commitment with a practice-squad running back may serve to lessen the excuse provided by Denver's injuries.

The acquisitions of running backs with a history of good receiving numbers (and comparatively low miles, despite the issues with Correll Buckhalter's or J.J. Arrington's respective knees) would tend to indicate that Denver will be moving to the New England-style of running back usage. Let's look at what that was last year:

The Patriots' top runner in 2008 was Sammy Morris, with 156 carries for 727 yards, for a 4.7-yard average (he also took some snaps at fullback). LaMont Jordan had 80 carries for 353 yards and a 4.5 average. Kevin Faulk had 507 yards on just 83 carries for an explosive average of 6.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, 2006 1st-round draft choice Laurence Maroney had only 28 carries for 93 yards, and New England has made it known that they aren't pleased with the young back. Then you have little-known Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, who filled in brilliantly with 74 carries and 275 yards. They spread the ball around, and they ran to the tune of 513 carries last season. That's bad news for those Broncos fans that yearn for a 1st-round back pounding and dodging his way into Canton. It seems very unlikely to happen under McDaniels. But it's good news if you like a well-balanced attack.

New England has some great numbers. They are very efficient - They were 6th in the league in big runs (carries of 10 or more yards), with 55 such plays. They were only 10th in the league in yards per carry (4.7), but 4th in rushing touchdowns with 21 in 2008. They know how to score, and the Broncos will benefit from that knowledge. As you'd expect, they don't leave a running back in the game for long. Rotation is common and at times it is a constant. They are into ‘fresh legs'. Some describe an inability of the back to ‘get into a groove' when rotated. That's in opposition to the NE idea of doing a job perfectly in execution each time, regardless. Faulk was at times their first option, or Morris or even Maroney, but they ran a wide variety of plays for all the backs.

We should also look at the scheme that Denver employs. In his article Denver's Unique Running Back System, Doc noted that a Denver running back needs the following qualities:

They have to put the team before their own stats and ego.
They have to block, run routes, chip and receive well, in addition to their running skills and intelligence.
They need excellent field vision, defensive-scheme comprehension and the neuromuscular abilities to see and respond very quickly (advanced proprioception).
They have to put the coaches' knowledge before their own "I've done it this way my whole life" approach.
They have to be able to come in from the bench and do their jobs well immediately without needing to ‘get into a groove'.

SlowWhiteGuy wrote,

"I would add one quality that is essential for backs in the Turner/Dennison system. They must trust the system, more than their ability. There actually is nothing that unique about Denver’s zone-blocking system; lots of teams use ZB. What is unique is the way they combine it with the 1-cut system. Denver stresses that the back must wait to make his cut until the backside pursuit has been sealed off. Most backs want to cut into the hole as soon as it opens, but that’s not Denver’s way. In fact you will often hear complaints about runners being too slow to the hole.

One of the reasons that Denver selects back lower in the draft is that backs who are selected more highly tend to have depended on their athletic/physical skill set. They are reluctant to abandon what got them to the pros. Lower round backs tend to be less physically gifted and have made it through hard work honing their technique. They are used to succeeding through study and hard work. For them, trusting the system comes more naturally; it’s an extension of what got them to the pros."

Can the two systems mesh? Absolutely. Denver has gone out in the offseason and added running backs who they feel can integrate into the zone-block scheme, catch passes out of the backfield and block well. They may be running the draw, running up the middle, some to the sides, although less. They will be catching passes, blocking for the pass and creating mismatches. McDaniels said as much the day after the Cutler trade and we were predicting the same before he did. By the way, he was also praising Hillis. Doc feels better now.

Rushing TDs, First Downs, Fumbles
	Rush TDs	1st Dns	Fumbles/Lost
DEN '07	10	96	30/14
DEN '08	15	103	18/12
DEN Avg	12.5	99.5	24/13
NE '05	16	101	19/9
NE '06	20	121	27/15
NE '07	17	124	14/6
NE '08	21	145	17/10
NE Avg	18.5	122.75	19.25/10

More Rushing TDs - New England has certainly been considered a pass-first offense in recent years and rightfully so, but only to an extent. In the red zone, the Patriots went to their running attack to dominate their scoring. As mentioned earlier, they have shown more balance than Denver and have run for a lot more touchdowns than the Broncos in recent years. Remember all of those goal-to-go situations that resulted in the dreaded chip-shot field goals lately? Hopefully Coach McDaniels' new offense will put those memories to rest. We shall see.

The Patriots had an interesting stat as far as scoring touchdowns. The Patriots top 5 scorers broke down this way: Randy Moss led the team with his 11 trips to the end zone, while four running backs ranked behind him [Morris (7), Faulk (6), Green-Ellis (5) and Jordan(4)]. For Denver, the top five had Peyton Hillis and Brandon Marshall tied for the team lead with 6 total touchdowns, followed by Eddie Royal (5), Daniel Graham and Michael Pittman (4 each). Tony Scheffler and Brandon Stokley had 3 each. That should look very different at the end of the 2009 season - look for more touchdowns out of Denver's offensive backfield. When Tom Brady went down, the Patriots went from 17 rushing TDs in '07 to 21 in '08. As they always do, they adapted their game to the new QB and moved on, efficiently.

More Rushing First Downs - The 2008 numbers jump off the screen - The Patriots moved the chains 145 times via the ground game, while the Broncos only did so on 103 occasions. As NYC mentioned in his earlier piece, every Broncos team which made the playoffs under Mike Shanahan had at least 124 rushing first downs. Granted, that is a correlative statistic, but we can probably all agree that the Broncos need better balance on offense.

Given the number of yards that the Broncos rolled up in '08, you would expect at least an average number of rushing TDs. The lack of that, in our opinion, shows something other than the oft-mentioned 'injuries' excuse. The Broncos were rushing for 4.8 yards per carry. Failing to use the rushing attack was, in our opinion, more of a factor of the play-calling of Bates than any deficiency in the rushing game.

Making a more balanced use of the rushing attack will have the added benefits of eating more of the clock and resting the defense. We believe that McDaniels' greater experience as an offensive coordinator will benefit the Broncos in this area.

Fewer Fumbles - Even more so than interceptions, this statistic may be more about personnel than coaching, but New England has put the ball on the ground less than Denver, and hopefully things will change there as well.

Rush-Direction Propensity Broken Down by Gap - Broncos '07-'08 and Patriots '05-'08
	LE(5)	LT(3)	LG(1)	C(0)	RG(2)	RT(4)	RE(6)
DEN '07-'08	16.7%	13.8%	6.3%	30.2%	8.7%	11.8%	12.5%
NE '05-'08	11.5%	13.1%	12.9%	29.8%	14.1%	12.3%	6.3%

More inside running - Certainly this may be somewhat attributable to personnel, but scheme was the final determinant of where each team ran. Denver has run for the most part around and behind Ryan Clady, Tom Nalen/Casey Wiegmann and Ryan Harris/Daniel Graham. Meanwhile, New England has run behind their guards almost twice as often as the Broncos have. Of course the retention of offensive-line coach Rick Dennison and running-backs coach Bobby Turner will have a lot to say about the Broncos' running game, but look for McDaniels' single-back sets to get more use out of the 1- and 2-gaps than the Broncos have under Mike Shanahan's tutelage.

From the game films, the Patriots preferred in 2008 to use the draw play heavily and keep their running backs between the tackles. If a back went to the outside, they were usually going to receive, and when they ran there they weren't very productive. The screen pass was an effective weapon for NE and that's inline with their overall preference to keep passes shorter and completions high.

Using the Fullback

If McDaniels goes with the same ideas of a fullback in Denver that he used in New England, it is potentially a good role for Spencer Larsen, who noted that he was uncomfortable handling the ball: in this offense, he wouldn't need to worry. The Pats' fullback, Heath Evans, only had 11 carries for 23 yards over 16 games in 2008, or 0.7 carries per game. The rest of the time when Evans was used (about 1 play in 7), he blocked. The use of Evans in 2008 was basic and for the most part unoriginal, which struck Doc as odd given the range with which they used other weapons. For the most part, he was a blocker - period. While we would like to watch Larsen on the field more and would prefer him at LILB, we could see him being very effective in a Heath Evans-type of role.

Of course, if Coach McDaniels chooses to stay with the idea of a fullback who is essentially there to block, Andrew Pinnock may be the perfect choice, and that would free Larsen to do what we believe he does best - blow people up on special teams and play inside linebacker. Doc has been especially interested in watching this aspect, and he thinks that keeping Pinnock but letting some other backs go (Anthony Alridge, Alex Haynes and P.J. Pope) spoke volumes on McDaniels' part.

The use of Heath Evans is a good illustration of how the Patriots adapted their offense to the players available. Prior to picking up Evans in 2005 (one week after Evans was cut by Miami), the Pats were making use of a 5'10", 217-lb player, Patrick Pass, at fullback. Because of his size and skill set, Pass was greatly used as a receiver and had hauled in 23 receptions prior to being injured in November of 2005. Late in October, Pass was even used as a halfback due to multiple injuries to his backfield mates. However, the switch from the lighter Pass to the 250-pound, hard-blocking Evans eventually brought about a change of scheme.

Injuries to Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk and Pass pushed Evans into an immediate starting role at halfback, and he excelled with 158 rushing yards on 33 carries in two games. He also was used effectively as a pass-catcher, very much as the Patriots had used Pass. Over the next three seasons, however, Evans got fewer and fewer touches, culminating in just 11 carries and 3 catches in 2008. From Patriots.com following the 2006 season,

"The 6-foot, 250-pounder has spent the majority of the season lining up as the fullback in the I-formation, where he has served as a lead blocker and short-yardage specialist, but has also expanded his role as a pass catcher, even lining up as a split end at times. He has been a big contributor on special teams and is also known as one of the friendliest players in the locker room."

McDaniels may not have liked him receiving, and may not have used him as a running back very much, but Evans was a versatile and effective contributor nonetheless. However, the limits of his use as a runner and receiver show a possible prejudice on McDaniels part, since Evans was a star running back in college, has run very well for New England and showed himself to be a good receiver in 2005. However, as time passed McDaniels' preference for using the fullback became clear - short yardage and lead blocking.

Many Broncos fans were disappointed that Hillis, when at fullback, was not used more as a receiver and in a Howard Griffith-type role before first becoming their star runner and then being injured. That was indicative of the change to Bates' system, such as it was. The modern fullback is being used less and less, both in NE and during this time frame in Denver. Eventually, we may see the change to a FB/H-back (for Denver, the pieces are there), but it isn't happening often or quickly, despite frequent comments about 'H-backs' in the media, a phrase that usually seems to simply mean a tight end who receives. That's not an H-back at all, but we understand what they are saying.

Still, change is the only constant. This year's draft is relatively deep in fullbacks. Andrew Pinnock, if he sticks, could get some competition in Denver, but it's not a priority. In 2008, the fullback slot went to Michael Pittman, then Hillis, then to Spencer Larsen, and to heck in a handcart by the time the season mercifully closed. Let's hope for greener pastures this year. Pinnock is just what McDaniels usually wants at the position - a strong blocker who is team oriented.

Balancing the Run and the Pass

When watching film on the Pats, the issue of run/pass balance came out in the difference between halves. New England was 26th league-wide in first-half runs called, 14th in the second half. These run/pass ratios are exactly the theories that went into building the West-Coast Offense, but despite a common misperception, the Patriots run a modern variant on the Erhardt-Perkins system. Their approach is less smash-mouth. It uses the pass more. However, since Erhardt is reputed to have said, "Pass to score, run to win", the McDaniels version of this approach (which was originally installed by Charlie Weis and has morphed and adapted to changes in personnel often since) uses the pass more in the first half and runs more in the second. A glance at their record also confirms that teams which have the lead in the second half will tend to run more.

But running the ball is often only half the battle on offense. Passing is the dominant attack for most teams, and both Denver and New England have exhibited that. On Friday, we will examine the passing game in Part 3 of our series.

Chiefs Not the Busiest but Having the Best Off Season in the AFC West

Chris Thorman — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:59:08 -0000

I know it's always fun to give Broncos, Raiders and Chargers fans a good ribbing now and then about their respective teams but the joke is really on the AFC West.

The Chargers, 8-8 last year, won their final four games of the year to snatch the divisional crown away from the bumbling Broncos. The Chiefs and Raiders were never in it. As a whole, the teams of the AFC West averaged about 5.5 wins each last year and no team's record was over .500.

So, you'd expect a lot of changes in personnel in the AFC West after such a poor showing by, well, everyone. The Broncos have been by far the busiest AFC West team in free agency and the activity dwindles as you go from the Chiefs, to the Raiders and to the Chargers.

The Chiefs cut a few salary cap heavy veterans and traded for a franchise quarterback and a defensive leader. Not too shabby for the first three days of free agency.

Let's see how the rest of the AFC West fared in the first wave of free agency.

Denver Broncos

Cap space before free agency: ~$37 million

ADDITIONS (8)	SUBTRACTIONS (15)	RE-SIGNED (0)
RB J.J. Arrington (FA, ARZ) RB Correll Buckhalter (FA, PHI) WR Jabar Gaffney (FA, NE) FS Renaldo Hill (FA, MIA) G Matt McChesney (waivers, MIA) LS Lonie Paxton (FA, NE) DT Darrell Reid (FA, IND) S Brian Dawkins (FA, PHI)	RB Anthony Aldridge (waivers, WSH) CB Dré Bly (cut) DE John Engelberger (cut) CB Domonique Foxworth (FA, BAL) RB Alex Haynes (cut) TE Nate Jackson (cut) LB Niko Koutouvides (cut) S John Lynch (retired) S Marquand Manuel (cut) TE Chad Mustard (cut) RB P.J. Pope (cut) DT Dewayne Robertson (cut) WR Cliff Russell (cut) DT Josh Shaw (cut) LB Jamie Winborn (cut)

It says something about how unhappy your new head coach is with the team when there have been 23 transactions on your team and nobody was re-signed. New Denver head coach Josh McDaniels wants no part of Mike Shanahan's legacy, even QB Jay Cutler.

Brian Dawkins is a decorated safety who will turn 36-years old in October. J.J. Arrington and Correll Buckhalter are the exact type of running backs you'd expect the old Broncos to sign (and subsequently get injured). Considering Denver was down to it's 7th running back or something close to that last year, it's probably a good idea to nab at least two of them in free agency.

To add to those sub par signings, WR Brandon Marshall was arr ested over the weekend and charged with disorderly conduct. ESPN is speculating that an 8-game suspension in 2009 could be in order for Marshall. Whatever the punishment is, it's good to see a great rival WR go down the tubes. Even if nothing comes of this latest arrest, you know Marshall is going to get arrested again. And again. And again. He's that stupid.

Verdict: Lots of movement by the Broncos but little of it was in a forward direction.

Oakland Raiders

Cap space before free agency: ~$8 million

ADDITIONS (1)	SUBTRACTIONS (5)	RE-SIGNED (3)
QB Bruce Gradkowski (waivers, CLE)	WR Ronald Curry (cut) DE Kalimba Edwards (cut) FB Justin Griffith (cut) OT Kwame Harris (cut) S Gibril Wilson (cut, MIA)	CB Nnamdi Asomugha CB Chris Johnson P Shane Lechler

If it wasn't for the whole winning thing or putting together a solid football team, it wouldn't be that bad to be an Oakland Raider. CB Nnamdi Asomugha was re-signed in mid-February to a deal that guarantees him $28.5 million in the first two years of his contract. I mean, if you hang around in Oakland for a couple of seasons and keep your mouth shut, Al Davis is going to throw you a bunch of cash.

Right now, the Raiders don't even enter my thoughts as AFC West competitors. And they probably won't until Al Davis leaves his ownership post. Despite putting together a Super Bowl team in the early part of this decade, Davis has fallen even further off of literal rocker in the last few seasons.

Verdict: Still the Raiders, which is like being the Keystone Cops of the NFL.

San Diego Chargers

Cap space before free agency: ~$14 million

ADDITIONS (0)	SUBTRACTIONS (1)	RE-SIGNED (1)
	LB Anthony Waters (cut)	G Kynan Forney

The big news isn't about any of the Charger's moves but only about one potential move- LaDainian Tomlinson. Rumors have surfaced mentioning the New Orleans Saints as a potential LT landing spot but nothing concrete has occurred. Moving LT would be contract related, as the Chargers will have to re-sign QB Philip Rivers to a huge contract next season.

The Chargers were the most stable team personnel wise in the AFC West, which may account for part of their lack of activity in free agency.

Verdict: Still the most talented team in the AFC West but the gap is closing quickly.

Poll

Which AFC West team did the best in the first wave of free agency?

Chiefs

930 votes

Raiders

4 votes

Broncos

160 votes

Chargers

7 votes

1101 votes | Poll has closed

Broncos release five players

John Bena — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:22:31 -0000

The Denver Broncos on Wednesday released five players, it was announced.

The club released running back Anthony Alridge, running back Alex Haynes, tight end Chad Mustard, running back P.J. Pope and wide receiver Cliff Russell.

ANY GIVEN FRIDAY: Controlling Your Destiny

Josh from Hollywood — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 16:00:05 -0000

Welcome to Any Given Friday, where we love watching any game where you can see the announcer’s breath in the booth while we’re warm and cozy at home in our Snuggie, where we can’t remember the last time all 32 teams played on one day, and where we think the best hit Brian Urlacher has made all year came on the coin tossed before OT Monday night.

If you ask me, it’s the best term in sports. “Controlling your own destiny”. So grand. So powerful. On Sunday night, Bob Costas said it was one of his pet peeves. He explained that destiny, by definition, cannot be controlled. Well, I say Bob Costas is a dirty commie, and should be hung from the highest flagpole at the earliest opportunity.

Controlling your own destiny is what America is all about. Hell, controlling your own destiny is how America came to be. The Brits had to make the road trip over here and win on our turf, and we said, “Not in our house!” And we’re still kickin’ ass and takin’ names 230+ years later. If Costas doesn’t like that, he can take his dictionary and go broadcast pro football in China or North Korea or someplace.

But honestly, isn’t that what we all want out of life -- a chance to prove ourselves worthy, a chance to succeed or fail on our own terms? Of course, it is. This is America, dammit! And I won't stand here while you bad-mouth the United States of America!

So, before we look at the games, let's review who is the master of their domain, and who is left scoreboard watching from the sidelines...

TEAMS WHO CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY:

Each of the following teams make the playoffs with a win. Some can make it with a loss if they get help, but some of those permutations are so complicated I got a headache just thinking about thinking about them.

Miami (10-5) -- A win at the Jets, and the Dolphins win the AFC East.

Baltimore (10-5) -- A win at home vs. Jacksonville, and the Ravens make the playoffs as the last wild card in the AFC.

Denver (8-7)* -- A win at San Diego, and the Broncos win the AFC West.

Minnesota (9-6)* -- A win at home against the Giants, and the Vikings win the NFC North.

Dallas (9-6)* -- A win at Philly, and the Cowboys are in as a wild card.

San Diego (7-8) -- A win at home vs. Denver, and the Chargers win the AFC West.

TEAMS WHO NEED HELP:

Okay, here’s where it gets complicated. In other words, this is where I cut and paste from ESPN.com.

New England (10-5) -- The Patriots clinch the AFC East title with a New England win and Miami loss or tie OR New England tie and Miami loss. The Patriots clinch a wild-card spot with a New England win and Baltimore loss or tie OR New England tie and Baltimore loss.

Chicago (9-6) -- The Bears clinch the NFC North with a Chicago win and Minnesota loss or tie OR Chicago tie and Minnesota loss. The Bears clinch a wild-card spot with a Chicago win and Dallas loss or tie and Tampa Bay loss or tie OR Chicago tie and Dallas loss and Tampa Bay loss.

Philadelphia (8-6-1)** -- The Eagles clinch a wild-card spot with a Philadelphia win and Tampa Bay loss and Minnesota loss OR Philadelphia win and Tampa Bay loss and Chicago loss.

Tampa Bay (9-6)** -- The Buccaneers clinch a wild-card spot with a Tampa Bay win and Dallas loss or tie OR Tampa Bay tie and Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie OR Tampa Bay tie and Dallas loss and Chicago loss or tie OR Tampa Bay tie and Dallas tie and Minnesota tie and Chicago win or tie OR Tampa Bay tie and Dallas tie and Chicago tie and Minnesota win or tie.

NY Jets (9-6)** -- The Jets clinch the AFC East title with a Jets win and New England loss. The Jets clinch a wild-card spot with a Jets win and Baltimore loss.

* “If at first you don't succeed...": Teams who still control their destiny despite losing last week.

** “Sheepishly hoping": Teams who had controlled their destiny until they lost last week.

Kansas City (2-13) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Cincinnati: What in the [SITE DECORUM] has gotten into Bengals RB Cedric Benson? After being cut by the Bears following a rough, two arrest off-season, Benson languished on the waiver wire into the regular season before being picked up by the RB-poor Bengals. Benson did almost nothing for Cincinnati (including three games with sub-2 YPC’s), before last week, when he put up 161 total yards in a win over the Redskins. Sunday, he backed up that effort with an even better one (38 carries, 171 yards). I know every dog has its day (especially for RB’s in the NFL), but it’s shocking to see this from Benson, who’s running style is so zombie-like, I imagine him groaning, “Brains... Brains...” as he stumbles for another two yard gain.

Kansas City: A few weeks back I told you KC QB Tyler Thigpen was a player to watch. Last week, against a Miami D which hadn’t allowed a TD in three games, he engineered four in the 1st half alone, and put up his first 300-yard game. During the game, the announcers mentioned a story I didn’t know: Thigpen tried to force a trade this past off-season, and the Packers made an offer, but KC refused to settle for a 2nd round choice. That tells me the Chiefs (at least the out-going administration) really like what they saw in Thigpen even before he got playing time.

In that game, T Damion McIntosh had two of the most violently effective pancake blocks you’ll ever see. Not only that, he had them both on the same play. Sure, those guys are DB’s and he outweighs them by 150 pounds, but he stacked them -- just like real pancakes.

The pick: BENGALS

Cleveland (4-11) at Pittsburgh (11-4)

The ugliest game of last week, and arguably the year... Hell, maybe the millennium, was Bengals 14, Browns 0. Any game the Browns play in right now is ugly. A few ugly notes about this ugly game from this ugly team. WARNING: Looking directly at these notes may cause you to turn to stone:

--The Browns have not scored an offensive TD in five weeks (covering 57 possessions).

--The Browns gave up as many points on offense as they did defense (one TD was an interception return).

--Browns QB Ken Dorsey was so bad (10/17, 68 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT), he got benched in favor of the recently signed Bruce Gradkowski (2/5, 8 yards, INT).

--The Browns lost despite holding QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to this stat line: 5/9, 55 yards, TD. That looks like the line of a guy knocked out in the 1st quarter, not a winning QB.

Then they capped off their week by having their QB of the future get punched in the face by one of his own D-lineman. Merry Christmas, Browns fans!

The pick: STEELERS

St. Louis (2-13) at Atlanta (10-5)

During the Saturday night game, the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter reported that Ravens defensive coordinator came in second to Mike Smith in the Atlanta head coaching search. That search was led by executive Billy Devaney, who is just named Rams GM. According to Schefter, Devaney was quite enamored of Ryan last year, so after the year the Ravens have had, I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see Buddy’s boy as the new head man in St. Louis.

The pick: FALCONS

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8)

I don’t know how many of you are old enough to remember Houston Oilers RB Lorenzo White, but he earned the nickname “Bigfoot” because he was especially effective is wet and/or snowy conditions due to, well, his big feet. It looks like New England may have their own Bigfoot sighting.

In training camp, there was some talk about the Patriots signing LaMont Jordan for the same reason. Jordan barely got any work at all through most of the regular season for the Pats -- going into last week, he had just 28 carries -- but as soon as they hit bad weather, he has re-appeared.

Faced with sloppy conditions last week at Oakland after a rainstorm, New England went with Jordan, who compiled 12 carries for 97 yards and a TD as the Pats scored 49 points. This week, playing in a blizzard, New England made Jordan their primary ballcarrier against the Cardinals, and got more good results -- 20 carries, 79 yards, 2 TD’s -- while scoring 47 points. As the Pats head into more bad weather next week, and the playoffs (should they make it), look for Jordan to continue to play an increased role.

The pick: PATRIOTS

Detroit (0-15) at Green Bay (5-10)

The way Green Bay’s season is going, they just might be the team that gets beat by Detroit. The Packers are 0-7 in games decided by four points or less. On Monday night football last week alone, they lost a game because a big 4th down play at the end of the game went against them by an inch on an iffy spot, a blocked kick at the end of regulation, and an overtime toss which went against them after it hit Brian Urlacher’s helmet. If that doesn’t make you feel cursed, I don’t know what would. Well, maybe losing at home to an 0-15 team...

The pick: PACKERS

NY Giants (12-3) at Minnesota (9-6)

Last week, Tarvaris led Vikes in passing (233), rushing (76), fumbles (3), and fumbles lost (2). Those last two aren’t good. And it wasn’t an uncontested race for most fumbles, either -- the team had seven fumbles total, losing four. The Vikes appeared completely ill-prepared for the intensity level early, but hung around and made it close. I was surprised head coach never went with Gus Frerotte, but with the season on the line this week, look for a quicker hook.

The big question is whether the Giants will be able to maintain their intensity with nothing on the line. I say they play hard, and win.

The pick: GIANTS

Tennessee (13-2) at Indianapolis (11-4)

Another sketchy/lucky/close win for Indy last Thursday night. With less than a minute left, the Colts led 31-24, but the Jags appeared to be driving for the tying score. Maurice Jones-Drew short pass down to the Indy 7-yard line with more than a half minute left, but was hurt on the play. Because the Jags had no timeouts left, there was a 10 second runoff. Once the clock was would, QB David Garrard wasted a few seconds before calling for the snap, then overthrew wide-open WR Reggie Williams in the back of the end zone. Cris Collinsworth mentioned on the NFL Network telecast that there were other receivers open on the play as well. But with :12 left, the Jags had at least two plays left to try and score -- unless Garrard took a sack. Garrard took a sack. Time ran out. Game over.

The Colts have had a ton of games like this in ‘08. If it’s not MJD getting hurt on the worst possible play and Garrard taking an unthinkable sack, it’s Sage Rosenfels fumbling away a 17-point lead with less than five minutes left, or the Vikes blowing one after leading the Colts 15-0 with 1:30 left in the 3rd quarter. It’s been that kind of year in Indy. But while they’ve been very fortunate, they’re also a little scary in terms of the playoffs.

Why? Who made that last sack to ice the game last week? Both DE Dwight Freeney (7.5 sacks in the last seven games), with help from DE Robert Mathis (6.5 sacks in the last five games). And how did the Colts put up 31 points? A guy by the name of Peyton Manning. He started out with 17 straight completions (with the six he had from the previous game, he only missed McNabb’s NFL record of 24 by one). Check out his numbers for the game: 29/34, 364 yards, 3 TD. That’s 85% completions, a 140.7 rating, and a 10.71 YPA. When he plays like that, they might be able to knock off a top seed -- like, say, the team they’re playing this week. But the Colts are known for pulling their starters early in meaningless games, so I won’t take them here.

The pick: TITANS

Oakland (4-11) at Tampa Bay (9-6)

Three weeks ago, the Bucs looked like odds-on bets to win their division, but after losing two tough division games on the road, they needed a win Sunday and some help to control their own destiny for a wild card. They got help from the Ravens, who beat Dallas on Saturday night, so Tampa knew they only needed a win Sunday to be back in the driver’s seat.

But despite another big day from Antonio Bryant (6 catches, 127 yards, TD), the Bucs were outscored 21-0 in the 4th quarter at home to blow a lead and lose to San Diego. As if that weren’t enough, the collapse was punctuated by this hit on Jeff Garcia by CB Quentin Jammer, which left Garcia looking like he got hit in the face with a shovel. Lucky for him, he was already ugly to begin with.

Tampa’s loss allowed Dallas to sneak back in to the “controlling their own destiny” situation, but the Bucs are not completely out of the playoff picture just yet. They can still earn a berth with a win at home next week over Oakland and a Philly win at home over Dallas.

The pick: BUCS

Carolina (11-4) at New Orleans (8-7)

When exactly did DeAngelo Williams go from “Good” to “Holy crap, he’s awesome!”? Probably around the time rookie T Jeff Otah helped make the Carolina O-line dominant, but he’s looks better at breaking tackles in the open field as well. Not that he wasn’t effective before (4.1 YPC in ‘06, 5.0 in ‘07), but this year he has a 5.5 average, more yards than his first two years combined, and an NFL-high 18 rushing TD’s -- after scoring five total in his first two years. He’s also one 30+ yard TD run in this game from tying Jim Brown’s all-time single-season record, set in 1958.

The Panthers need this game to clinch the division (assuming a Falcons win vs. St. Louis), so it will be very tough for Brees to get the 401 yards he needs to break Marino’s record.

The pick: PANTHERS

Chicago (9-6) at Houston (7-8)

Chicago needs to win and get some help -- preferable a Vikings loss the the Giants. That doesn’t seem like too much to ask for, especially considering how the Bears have been living lately.

Playing New Orleans at home two weeks ago, they had to kick a tying FG on the last play of regulation to force OT, where they won. Last week, playing Green Bay at home, they had to score a TD in the final minutes to tie, then block a FG in the final seconds to force OT, where again they won. They’re doing just enough to win and getting the breaks -- that 4th down play they got by an inch vs the Packers looked to a generous spot (yet was unreviewable by to the bad camera angles on the play).

But the Texans had been playing well before the laid an egg in Oakland last week. I think they’d very much like to finish 8-8 (their record last year) and knock out a potential playoff team if only to make a statement. I also think they can get it done.

The pick: TEXANS

Washington (8-7) at San Francisco (6-9)

How many of you thought the Niners would win after Donnie Avery’s (temporarily) game-saving catch in the closing minutes of the Rams/Niners game? If you did, you're a better fan than I.

As I’m sure you recall, it was 4th and 9 with just :37 remaining, and the Niners were one play away from wrapping up a miraculous victory. Marc Bulger dropped back to pass, and threw for Avery on the sideline. Walt Harris cut in front and leaped high, tipping the ball. For a moment, I stood to celebrate... Until it was still caught by Avery. I didn’t think he got his feet in, but the officials ruled he did -- and replays confirmed it.

I’m not sure which is the more amazing thing about the play for me: That Avery was able to catch the ball cleanly -- without the slightest bobble, which would’ve taken him out of bounds, or the last second toe-tap he pulled off to complete the catch. Either way, I was absolutely certain the Niners were losing after that. Glad I was wrong. The Niners are surprising me -- in good ways -- a lot lately.

The pick: NINERS

Seattle (4-11) at Arizona (8-7)

Another game against a team fighting for the playoffs, another 21-0 deficit for Arizona. Last week, I mentioned the Cards had fallen behind 21-0 at home to Minnesota in 12 minutes after falling behind 21-0 at Philly on Thanksgiving in 21 minutes. On Sunday, it took them 18 minutes, so at least they’re pretty consistent.

So much for that MVP talk. Like his team, Arizona QB Kurt Warner is limping to the finish line it what not long ago looked to be a dream season. Last week in the snow at New England he went 6/18, 30 yards, 1.7 YPA. Look at those stats again. Those are Pickett-esque.

The pick: CARDS

Dallas (9-6) at Philadelphia (8-5-1)

The Cowboys are lucky to still control their destiny after a brutal effort at home vs. the Ravens in the last game at Texas Stadium. QB Tony Romo had a horrendous first three quarters, compiling only 72 yards passing and throwing two big picks -- both to Ed Reed. Once Romo heated up and got the Cowboys back into the game, the defense opened up wide for two 77+ yard runs in the final four minutes to ice the game -- both on 1st and 10 plays when Dallas knew the Ravens would run to try and burn clock. On both plays, Dallas S Ken Hamlin missed tackles to allow the big gains.

The ultimate irony was revealed after the game: Jerry Jones actually asked the league in the offseason to allow the Cowboys to play Baltimore for the last game at Texas stadium. Out of all their opponents, Jones thought that would be the easiest game to win. The Ravens reportedly got wind of this and used it as a motivating factor. How ‘bout them Cowboys?

On thing did go the Cowboys’ way this week -- the start time of this game. By starting at 4pm EST, the Eagles may already know they are eliminated (If Tampa wins, or both Chicago and Minnesota win), and that could conceivably affect their effort.

The pick: COWBOYS

Jacksonville (5-10) at Baltimore (10-5)

Baltimore doesn’t scare with their offense, and they shouldn’t. Joe Flacco has topped 200 yards passing this season only four times, and Ravens receiver have just three 100-yard games this season. They rely on a running game which until last week had only had two 90-yard days by RB’s all year (both Willis McGahee and Le Ron McClain had one vs. Dallas).

But what the Ravens do do (tee-hee) is all the small things. Flacco doesn’t generally make the big mistake, the defense makes big plays (see: Reed, Ed), and their coaching staff appears to maximize their talents. But more than anything, they seem to do those things which defy categorization -- those little things you need to win. A couple of examples from their big win at Dallas last week::

--Ravens WR Derrick Mason is a little guy by football standards, but he showed big cojones last Saturday night. Mason dislocated a shoulder early in the game, took a pain-killing shot, and came back to play, recovering a crucial fumble, and converting it into a TD catch a few plays later.

--John Harbaugh may have come in a distant third in rookie coach poll, but he responded by making what was probably the coaching move of Week 16. Already up 9-7 on the road with four minutes left in the 3rd quarter, he called for a fake punt. P Sam Koch got the 1st down, and it led to a TD which put Baltimore up 16-7 in a game they eventually won 33-24.

The pick: RAVENS

Miami (10-5) at NY Jets (9-6)

Miami: Last week, playing in their first cold weather game of the season -- and the coldest game in Miami Dolphin history(!) -- the ‘Phins had two turnovers, after only having 10 all year (they still have the fewest ever by two over the 1990 Giants). They allowed four 1st half TD’s, after no TD’s at all for three straight games. And they did this against the Chiefs.

Jets: There’s been some whining out of Boston about the time of this game being moved back to 4pm EST -- Pats fans are afraid the Jets will know they’re out of the playoffs by then, and won’t give full effort. I think that’s silly. What more could Mangini or Favre want more than to knock Pennington from the playoffs -- otherwise, they’ll act as his welcome mat to the playoffs. The bigger worry should come from what Brett Favre has done recently in cold weather games.

Stat O’ The Week: In his first 35 starts in games with a temperature under 34 degrees, Brett Favre was 35-0. In his last 15 starts, he’s 6-9.

The pick: DOLPHINS

Denver (8-7) at San Diego (7-8)

How psyched is Ed Hochuli that his bad call won't cost the Chargers a playoff trip? Even if the Chargers win that first game in Denver, these teams would be 8-7 and 7-8 (just reversed) and the AFC Worst would still come down to this game, right? WRONG! Even with a loss, San Diego would have the division tiebreaker and would’ve won the division. So "Eddie Guns" better be rooting hard for the Chargers in this one. With all the teams still alive, and all the different permutations, this is the only game where both teams have clear win-and-in, lose-and-out situations. For that reason among others, NBC used their flex option to choose this game. Coincidently, flexing is another thing Ed Hochuli knows all about.

Last week, I wrote in this space that Denver has been able to pass all year, but has struggled with the running game due to a number of injuries. Last week, those storylines continued. With a chance to clinch the AFC West with a win at home against Buffalo (losers of seven of eight, win the only win vs. KC), QB Jay Cutler threw for 359 yards and set a franchise record 4,210 passing yards (Crazy note: He didn’t break John Elway’s record -- it belonged to Jake Plummer). But their leading rusher was WR Eddie Royal, who only had one carry. Granted, he took that carry 71 yards, but that’s not a good sign. Neither was the player who had the most carries: Cutler, with eight. PJ Pope became the sixth RB to start for the Broncos this year, but had to leave with a hamstring injury. Selvin Young took over, but had to leave with a pinched nerve in his neck. So Tatum Bell, the last healthy RB on the roster, was forced into action.

Last week, I wrote this half-assed joke:

"Last I heard, the Broncos had just placed this ad on Craig’s List: 'RB WANTED -- NO EXPERIENCE NECESSARY'."

This week, the Broncos signed two guys they’d previously cut. If that isn’t a case of life imitating half-assed humor, then I don’t know what is.

The Chargers haven’t been all that good the last few weeks -- they got lucky (like, three times) to beat the Chiefs, and took advantage of a slumping Tampa team -- but I think you need to ask yourself two questions:

1) Can we see Hochuli getting off the hook?

2) Can we have an 8-8 team in the playoffs?

Yes, we can.

The pick: CHARGERS

LAST WEEK: 8-8

ANY GIVEN FRIDAY: n00bs FTW!

Josh from Hollywood — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 16:00:07 -0000

Welcome to 'Any Given Friday', where we love it when the NFL is on four days a week (even if our wife doesn't), where we can't remember so many big games between potential playoff teams in one week before (including head-to-head games for the #1 seed in each conference), and where we'd never call ourselves the worst blogger in America (at least, not as long as howtheyscored is still posting).

The league has several great choices for coach of the year -- it does every year. But what makes this year remarkable is that three of the very best candidates are rookie coaches -- Tony Sparano, John Harbaugh, and Mike Smith. These aren’t just coaches in their first year with new teams, but first time head coaches -- guys with no prior experience. All three have their teams at 9-5 and in the thick of the playoff hunt.

I've mentioned this before here, but the only season I can recall with three rookie coaches this successful was 1992, when Dennis Green took over the Vikings, Bill Cowher became the head man in Pittsburgh (both went 11-5), and Mike Holmgren grabbed the reins in Green Bay (9-7). Two of them went on to win Super Bowls (and lose Super Bowls) with those teams, and the other went to two conference championship games.

The only other virgin head coach this year (non-interim division), Jim Zorn, has Washington at a respectable 7-7 (though they did go 9-7 a year ago). He could've easily been in the discussion of the best rookie coach as well, if he hadn’t a) allowed the ‘Skins to fade badly down the stretch, b) needlessly benched and publicly criticized his best offensive player, and c) called himself “the worst coach in America”. This has only intensified rumors that Zorn might be one-and-done in D.C., a la Schottenheimer in 2001, and Daniel Snyder could be preparing to make Cowher an offer he can’t refuse. So, while Coach Zorn does his daily affirmation, Stuart Smalley-style, let’s narrow the discussion to The Big Three.

They come from different backgrounds -- offense, defense, and special teams. One (Smith) was a coordinator for five years at the pro level before being hired. The other two had never been coordinators at the pro level, Harbaugh never had at any level. The one common thread: They all changed their starting QB in the first year, either through trade or draft. So keep in mind, the GM’s for these teams should be getting a lot of credit as well. The question is, which of them has done the best job thus far. Before you answer, let’s take a closer look at the candidates:

Tony Sparano has completely turned around the 1-15 Dolphins, with a big (fat) helping hand from Bill Parcells. He’s relied on the running game (led by everybody’s favorite, the Wildcat formation) and a good defense (led by sackmaster Joey Porter). The acquisition of Pennington and health of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gave him a good start, and he’s run with it. Sparano has led the biggest turnaround in terms of wins, but of course a lot of credit needs to go to Parcells. Bonus points for having a name resembling one famous TV character, and a face (and body) resembling another.

John Harbaugh has led his turnaround of 5-11 Baltimore with some help from rookie QB Joe Flacco, improved line play, and the Baltimore staple -- defense. They always had the defensive stars -- Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata -- but injuries and a hopeless offense took the sting out of their bite. Harbaugh has used Flacco’s ability to avoid big mistakes and a reliance on the running game to re-energize the D, and they’re playing as well as they have in years. But a lot of credit for that must go to defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. Bonus points for landing an NFL head coaching gig before Captain Comeback.

Mike Smith has done the seemingly impossible in Atlanta. Not just turning around the 4-12 Falcons, but making everybody forget about Michael Vick. A big assist goes to first-year GM Thomas Dmitrov for top pick Matt Ryan and free-agent acquisition Michael Turner. There was already talent there -- Roddy White, John Abraham, Jerious Norwood -- but those two changes more than anything appear to be responsible for the turnaround. Even so, the job Smith has done can’t be minimized -- given a choice of a franchise to take over this past off-season, I don’t think there were many who would’ve chosen Atlanta over Miami or Baltimore. Big, big bonus points for getting all up in Antonio Bryant’s grill. For that alone, he's got my vote.

We'll take a look at all the weekend's games after the jump...

Baltimore (9-5) at Dallas (9-5)

Cowboys: Is there anybody in the league who fumbles more than Tony Romo? After two more fumbles last week -- one a fumbled snap, which seems to happen to him all the time -- he might be the NFL’s Mr. Fumble. Kurt Warner once held that title, and he’s still in the league, but he seems to have improved in that regard. Warner credits switching to gloves for his better grip, so maybe Romo should talk to him.

Ravens: One play in last week’s Pittsburgh/Baltimore game got lost amid all the talk about the ending. Leading 9-6, with just a few minutes remaining, Baltimore faced a 3rd and 8 at the Steelers’ 27. Joe Flacco dropped back to pass, and held onto the ball too long. Unaware of the pocket closing around him, Flacco was sacked and fumbled. The ravens recovered, but the play knocked the team out of FG range. The Ravens punted, and though they pinned the Steelers deep, Pittsburgh drove 92 yards to score. But because the ridiculous Jeff Reed penalty I talked about in Monday’s post, the Ravens got the ball back near midfield, and drove near FG range. Had they cashed in their earlier FG opportunity, the Ravens wouldn’t have had to force the ball into the end zone. But by that time, a FG would do them no good, and their corresponding aggressiveness got them picked off in the end zone to win the game.

The pick: COWBOYS

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10)

Ken Dorsey is sort of like the NFL’s version of 'Rudy'. He's not big enough, or fast enough. His arm isn’t strong, or accurate. I can just hear it now: “You’re five-foot-nuthin’, a hundred and nuthin’.” he really has no business still being in the NFL. But he’s smart, and he gutsy, and he gives you all he’s got. The difference between Kenny and Rudy is that every now and again Dorsey has to play for an extended period, and then people see that he sucks. That’s when the fans of his team stop thinking he’s a cute story and start booing. When you think about it, the only reason that Rudy never got booed is that he never got to play enough. If the coaches at Notre Dame threw him out there to play every down against Michigan, he’d would’ve been blown up all day and booed off the field. People don’t make movies about things like that.

The pick: BENGALS

Miami (9-5) at Kansas City (2-12)

The Dolphins have clearly taken the Bill Parcells model of defense and ball-control to heart. Stat O’ The Week: Miami has amazingly only turned the ball over 10 times in 14 games this season. They’re on face to break the all-time record of 14 in a 16-game season, held by the 1990 Giants -- a team coached by... (yep, you guessed it) Bill Parcells. That team won the Super Bowl, and I don’t see that in the Dolphins’ future, but still: Way to hold onto your balls, Miami!

Random question, has anyone ever turned the ball over fewer times than they had losses the previous year? (Take a minute to wrap your head around that one)

The pick: DOLPHINS

San Francisco (5-9) at St. Louis (2-12)

Was there a worse set of downs run last week than the Niners had from a 1st and 10 at the Miami 28 late in the 2nd quarter? It went: Sack, Bruce catch for 1st down called back on illegal formation penalty, then another sack to bring up a 3rd and 23 on the Miami 41. Rather than try and pick up 5+ yards to set up a Nedney FG, they went for it all on a bomb to Josh Morgan, leading to a punt (which, by the way, was fumbled into the end zone by Tarell Brown).

This is the kind of sequence which always seems to kill the Niners in close games, and encapsulates all that’s annoying about the Niners offense -- spotty line play, formation-type penalties at crucial times, and questionable play-calling. Ahh, the Niners, I love ‘em.

All that said, I think they get a road win this week against the Lambs.

The pick: NINERS

Arizona (8-6) at New England (9-5)

The last few weeks, Arizona has had a few chances to show they are for real, and not a mirage constructed out of garbage NFC West wins. Thus far, they have failed. They played the defending champion Giants pretty tough in Week 12, but allowed 37 points at home to lose by eight. The next week, they went on the road against a struggling Eagles team on Thanksgiving, and took one on the chin, 48-20. Last week, they again faced a potential playoff team, and got curb-stomped at home by the Vikings, 35-14.

Yes, they had clinched the division last week and had less to gain from a win than the Vikes, but opening the game by falling behind 21-0 has to be a concern -- especially when considering they did the exact same thing vs. the Eagles. In Philly, it took the 21 minutes to do it. Sunday, it took just over 12 minutes. Arizona also has to be a bit disheartened by the way they’ve not just lost to quality opponents, but looked outclassed.

The Cards get another crack at respectability with a game at New England this week. An icy cold, 10am start against a good team on the road is something Arizona will likely have to face in the playoffs, so this would be a good time to show they’re capable. On the other hand, New England probably needs this game to maintain their tie atop the AFC East and stay in the thick of the playoff hunt.

The pick: PATRIOTS

New Orleans (7-7) at Detroit (0-14)

Time is running out on Marinelli’s Men -- they have but two games to avoid 0-16 infamy. I’ve gone on record as saying Detroit will run the table, but this week they appear to have an outside shot in this, their last home game of the season. (Scoop up those tickets fast, Lions fans, they’re going fast!) The Saints are coming off a tough loss which knocked them out of the playoff race, and have lost Reggie Bush for the season.

On the other hand, I’m sure the Saints don’t want the embarrassment of giving Detroit its only win, New Orleans will have 10 days of preparation time for the Lions, and Drew Brees still has something to shoot for: Brees has an outside chance at Dan Marino’s passing yardage record. Brees needs over 700 yards passing in the last two weeks of the season, and with not much else left to play for, he might be trying to get all of him this week.

The pick: SAINTS

Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2)

As if last week wasn’t tough enough for the Titans -- they lose a tight one to Houston (due in part to Fisher’s controversial decision to forego a late FG), get a little exposed at QB (Kerry Collins: 15/33, 181 yards, INT), and lose DT Albert Haynesworth to a sprained MCL -- they took another couple of hits as the week went on. First, it was announced both Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch would miss the rest of the regular season, then Haynesworth made the Pro Bowl.

Wait, that last one doesn’t sound bad, right? Well, it is. See, according to Haynesworth’s contract, making the Pro Bowl allows him to be an unrestricted free agent this off-season. While that is a problem the Titans don’t have to deal with until after their season is over, Haynesworth’s injury could cause that to come a whole lot earlier. Last year, the Titans got off to a 6-2 start before Haynesworth got hurt (allowing more than 22 points only once). Tennessee went 0-3 while Haynesworth sat out (allowing at least 28 points in each game), then got back on track once he returned to the lineup, going 4-1 to send the season (and allowing more than 20 points just once -- the Chargers scored 23 on them, but needed OT to do it).

If that same trend holds this year, the Titans could lose both their final two games (Pittsburgh and Indy) and head into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. Even just one loss -- this week to Pittsburgh -- will likely cost Tennessee home-field throughout the playoffs. The bright side for Tennessee: As pointed out in the comments of Monday’s post by Fooch and Professor Bigelow, the Titans cannot blow their division title or bye, even with a loss to the Colts resulting in a tie atop the NFC South due to a tweak in the tie-breaker rules a few years back.

The pick: STEELERS

San Diego (6-8) at Tampa Bay (9-5)

San Diego: The Chargers aren’t completely out of the AFC West division race just yet. If they win this week, and Buffalo upsets Denver, they can win the division by beating the Broncos the final week of the year. If they stay two games behind the Broncos and beat them next week, they’ll lose the division by a game, and that Ed Hochuli blown call from early in the season would look pretty big. It would essentially be the difference in winning the division or watching the playoffs from their coaches for both the Chargers and Broncos.

Tampa: The Bucs really need to stop the bleeding. After losing two tough division games on the road, they are now the odd team out of the NFC playoff picture (losing tiebreakers to Dallas and Atlanta). Last week, their offense gave them very little despite their D and special teams giving them opportunities (All 10 of their points came off two turnovers -- a Ronde Barber pick led to a TD, and a blocked punt late in the 4th quarter was the only reason they were about to force OT).

The pick: BUCCANEERS

Carolina (11-3) at NY Giants (11-3)

The winner of this game automatically clinches home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC. Like the Titans, the Giants seemed a mortal lock to be the top seed in their conference, have stumbled, are now battling injuries headed into the biggest game of the year, and are in danger of entering the playoffs struggling. They can remedy all that with a win on Sunday night, but should they lose, their 2008 season would suddenly look a lot like a mirror image of their 2007 season -- rather than catching fire down the stretch, they could be getting ready to fade.

Speaking of mirror images, Carolina is looking like a pretty close reflection of the 2007 Giants team -- dominant O-line/RB platoon, big play WR, good defense with a good pass rush. It could be their turn to ride that excellent combination to a glorious playoff run. But last year, the giants proved again and again, they could win big games on the road. At this point, I still need to see the Panthers -- and more specifically Jake Delhomme -- prove to me they can do that, too.

The pick: GIANTS

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7)

By now everybody knows about DeSean Jackson’s infamous play earlier in the year when he dropped the ball before crossing the goal line. If you missed the Monday night, you may have missed Asante Samuel doing the exact same thing while returning an easy pick-six. Well, it was the same until he realized his mistake and quickly picked up the ball before it went out of bounds. How unbelievable is it that two players from the same team made the same mistake, both on Monday night? The odds against that have to be enormous.

The pick: EAGLES

Atlanta (9-5) at Minnesota (9-5)

Falcons: Matt Ryan had one of the worst games of his short career last week, but he continued to show he might already be the best QB in the NFL at throwing on the run. I know that’s probably at least in part hyperbole, but he really is amazing, and reminds me a bit -- just a bit -- of a young Joe Montana. Of course, I’ve also thought the same thing about other QB’s who never really made it through the years, but that’s some of the highest praise I can give.

Ryan seems equally capable of throwing on the run to his right, his left, moving forward in the pocket, or dropping back. He displays touch, and surprising arm-strength, and never seems to give up on a play. He also seems to avoid those big mistakes guys who never give up on plays (Favre, Romo, etc.) usually make. If I had to start a team from scratch, I’m not sure I wouldn’t pick him first. He’s not the best player in the NFL, but he’s very good, plays the most crucial position, and appears to be getting better from week to week.

Vikings: As for the Vikes QB situation, they've announced they're starting Tavaris Jackson this week -- and likely for the foreseeable future -- after he complied a 141. 7 passer rating in a game and a half since taking over the then-injured, now-healthier Gus Frerotte. The question is, if Jackson struggles at home in this ultra-important game, how quickly will Minnesota coach Brad “The ‘Stache” Childress pull the trigger and go to the veteran?

The pick: VIKINGS

Houston (7-7) at Oakland (3-11)

I saw plenty of the Steve Slaton in college at West Virginia, and always had him pegged as a gloried 3rd down back. When he was drafted by the RB-poor Texans, I thought he could be a valuable weapon if used sparingly at first -- on 3rd downs and kick returns. Call it "The Tiki Barber/Brian Westbrook Plan". But when preseason hype had some calling him a fantasy sleeper, I thought people were overrating him. Man, was I wrong.

It’s become clear Slaton has what it takes to be an every down back. His moves and quickness have never been in question, and after 206 carries, he’s shown he can take the pounding. On Sunday, on a big 3rd and 2, he showed that toughness, bulling through Haynesworth and the Titans D-line for the 1st down when it appeared he was stopped. His big day (24 carry, 100 yards) helped the Texans upset the Titans, was his fifth time over the century mark this season, and put him over the 1,000 yard mark. He also iced the game with two long runs in the final minutes, the final one, on a 3rd and 8, ended with him intelligently sliding down in-bounds to keep the clock running and clinch the game.

Slaton is a candidate for Rookie of the Year, and may be the missing piece the Texans offense has been looking for to stabilize their long-dormant running game. If so, this late-season surge could be a sign of things to come in Houston. With a win at Oakland, the Texans will clinch their second straight non-losing year, and give themselves a chance to play for a winning record next week.

The pick: TEXANS

NY Jets (9-5) at Seattle (3-11)

The football gods giveth, and they taketh away. Two weeks ago, you’ll remember the Jets got a 2nd half kick return from Leon Washington to take the lead against the Niners, only to have it called back. Last week, they gave up a 2nd half kick return to Roscoe Parrish to lose the lead to the Bills, only to have that called back as well. Then as a topper, they were the recipients of an early Christmas gift from J.P. Losman, in the form of a game-winning fumble/TD. If not for those breaks, the jets could very well be on the outside of the playoff race looking in. But they likely won’t mean a thing if they can’t get their first win on the west coast after going 0-3 so far this season -- at San Diego, Oakland, and San Francisco.

The pick: JETS

Buffalo (6-8) at Denver (8-6)

While the Denver passing offense has been great (3rd in NFL in passing yards, 5th in TD’s, top 10 in both rating and YPA), their running offense -- once their strength, has taken a back seat. On the surface, the numbers don’t look too bad -- the Broncos are averaging 4.5 YPC (5th in the NFL) -- but they're 16th in rushing yards, 19th in rush TD’s, and way back at 26th in attempts. A healthy YPC average is less useful when it is attained by surprising people with the run, rather than dictating with it. So, how did the running game fall so far behind the passing game in Denver? In a word, attrition. The Broncos have had such a revolving door at RB, Shanahan would rather rely on Cutler and their receivers than whoever they got back there.

First, big free agent pickup Travis Henry forced his own suspension/release with drug use. Then replacements Andre Hall, Michael Pittman and Selvin Young were hurt (Young missed seven of eight games prior to last week when he had a key fumble). Converted FB turned starting RB Peyton Hillis was very impressive, then was lost for the season to yet another injury. So, the Broncos have been forced to use guys named Ryan Torain and P.J. Pope, and even re-signed their former RB, Tatum Bell, despite the fact he was released by the Lions, and is now best known for stealing a teammate’s luggage. Last I heard, the Broncos had just placed this ad on Craig’s List: "RB WANTED -- NO EXPERIENCE NECESSARY".

The pick: BRONCOS

Green Bay (5-9) at Chicago (8-6)

With Minnesota playing another potential playoff team, the Bears need to win, and hope Minnesota stumbles. They’re in good position to do just that -- Green Bay is on a horrendous slide, blowing a string of close games, and the Bears have had 10 days of preparation since their win over the Saints.

In that Thursday night game vs. New Orleans, I noticed something interesting. I’ve been paying attention to audible fan reaction a lot this season. It began when I noticed that in a lot of NFL stadiums, the fans don’t know exactly when to cheer. For instance, when a referee calls a penalty for “illegal contact”, a savvy fan base like Pittsburgh knows right away the penalty is on the defense, while in Carolina there’s no reaction until the ref says “defense”. In Chicago last Thursday, the Bears were driving for an important score late, and TE Greg Olsen appeared to get out of bounds. At the very moment the side judge wound his arm to signal to keep the clock running, the crowd let out a thunderous barrage of boos. That’s a good crowd.

The pick: BEARS

LAST WEEK: 11-5

THIS WEEK 1-0

Poll

Which rookie head coach has done the best job so far in 2008?

Tony Sparano

28 votes

John Harbaugh

8 votes

Mike Smith

36 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

As Healthy As They're Gonna Be -- Scheffler and Young To Suit Up Vs. Browns

John Bena — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:53:45 -0000

They aren' t 100%, but with the current state of the Broncos they really don't have much of a choice, do they? TE Tony Scheffler and RB Selvin Young, both of whihc hve missed the last three games for the Broncos - all losses - will dress and see action tomorrow night in Cleveland. That according to Mike Shanahan earlier today after a short workout before boarding a plane.

While how much action either sees is up for debate, anything is better than nothing, especially at running back where the Broncos are down to a rookie with 3 career carries and a practice squad call-up(Ryan Torain and P.J. Pope)

“He’s still a little sore,” Shanahan said about Young. “I don’t think we’ll know for sure until he actually starts playing, but he’s going to dress and hopefully there’s no setback.”

Shanny admitted neither is full speed but the Broncos will apparently see what they can do.

Broncos Announce Several Roster Transactions, Promote RB P.J. Pope From Practice Squad

John Bena — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:27:38 -0000

The Denver Broncos on Tuesday announced several roster transactions, including the signings of linebacker Mario Haggan, running back P.J. Pope and defensive back Roderick Rogers to their active roster.

The club also on Tuesday waived tight end Chad Mustard while adding running back Cory Boyd and linebacker Tyson Smith to its practice squad.

Mario Haggan (6-foot-3, 263 pounds) is a sixth-year linebacker who spent the last five seasons (2003-07) with Buffalo, which selected him in the seventh round (228th overall) of the 2003 NFL Draft from Mississippi State University. He appeared in all 16 games during each of the last four years with Buffalo and has played in 65 career games, totaling 21 tackles (14 solo), one sack and 57 special-teams stops. Haggan attended Clarksdale High School in Clarksdale, Miss., and was born on March 3, 1980.

P.J. Pope (5-foot-9, 205 pounds) is a second-year running back who spent the first nine weeks of the 2008 season on Denver's practice squad. He entered the NFL with Chicago in 2006 as a college free agent from Bowling Green State University and saw time on the Bears' practice squad during each of the last two seasons in addition to a brief stint on Green Bay's active roster in 2006. Pope has appeared in one career game, posting a special-teams stop for the Packers. He attended Wyoming High School in Cincinnati and was born on Feb. 26, 1984.

Roderick Rogers (6-foot-2, 187 pounds) is a second-year defensive back who spent the first nine weeks of the 2008 season on Denver's practice squad. Rogers, who entered the NFL with Denver in 2007 as a college free agent from the University of Wisconsin, appeared in the Broncos' final two games as a rookie last year after beginning that season on their practice squad. He attended Stephenson High School in Stone Mountain, Ga., and was born on Sept. 7, 1984.

Cory Boyd (6-foot-1, 218 pounds) is a rookie running back who joins the Broncos after being waived on July 26 by Tampa Bay, which selected him in the seventh round (238th overall) of the 2008 NFL Draft from the University of South Carolina. He played 46 games (27 starts) for the Gamecocks and finished his collegiate career with 464 rushes for 2,267 yards (4.9 avg.) with 23 touchdowns along with 117 receptions for 1,303 yards (11.1 avg.) with five scores. Boyd attended Orange High School in Orange, N.J., and was born on Aug. 6, 1985.

Tyson Smith (6-foot-2, 250 pounds) is a second-year linebacker who joins the Broncos after competing in Dallas' training camp this year. He has appeared in three games for his career, totaling four special-teams tackles for the New York Giants during the 2006 season. Last year, he saw time on the practice squads of the 49ers, Redskins and Cowboys. Smith, who entered the NFL with Baltimore in 2005 as a college free agent from Iowa State University, attended Dowling Catholic High School in West Des Moines, Iowa, and was born on Oct. 9, 1981.

What does all this mean?? The fact the Broncos promoted Pope likely means that Selvin Young is not ready to go. Chad Mustard getting released likely means Tony Scheffler is getting close and will hopefully go on Thursday. The rest? The only disappointment I can say I have is Rogers. Not that he was brought to the active roster but rather Josh Barrett hasn't made enough progress as of yet.