SB Nation - Mitch Berger

Oakland Raiders Postgame Recap: Raiders 20, Broncos 19

Rated-R Superstar — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:43:37 -0000

Yes, Charlie Frye was the guy going into this one. No, he wasn't the last one standing. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

It thankfully wasn't JaMarcus Russell getting the start under center. Instead, it was Charlie Frye getting the start at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders today as they hoped to put a minor dent into the the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes. Little did we know that both Russell and Frye would play a role in deciding the outcome of today's game. The Raiders (4-9) and the Broncos (8-5) met earlier this year in Oakland in which Denver prevailed convincingly. Last year in Denver, however, it was Oakland who came away with a shocking 31-10 victory. This time around, let's see how the two bitter rivals went at each other. Anything can happen in a rivalry game between two original AFL franchises.

Michael Bush made his only carry in the first quarter worth an important six points. [via a.espncdn.com]

First Quarter: The Broncos began the game kicking it off to the Raiders. Not surprisingly, the ineffective Gary Russell was returning kicks. He took a knee, though, and the kick into the end zone actually benefited us. Charlie Frye, a 6-14 record as a starter, took the field and threw an incomplete pass on the first play. Out of the power-I, Justin Fargas gained a few yards on the next play. Needing seven yards, a six-yard pass to Chaz Schilens brought out the punt team. Shane Lechler only managed a weak 45-yard punt right to Eddie Royal which was returned for not too many yards. On first down, the rookie out of Georgia by the name of Knowshon Moreno carried it to the right side and was tackled by Nnamdi Asomugha. On second down, Greg Ellis almost got to Kyle Orton and forced an incomplete pass off the deflection. A false start penalty on tight Daniel Graham set Denver back some more, and they needed 12 yards on third down. It didn't matter as Royal picked up more than enough to convert it. Utilizing the running backs effectively -- particularly Knowshon Moreno with just a little dash of Correll Buckhalter -- allowed the Broncos to move down the field nicely. A third down stop inside the 10 by the Raiders defense forced a chip shot field goal by Matt Prater. The Broncos had taken the early 3-0 lead. The second possession started with a four-yard pass from Frye to Schilens. A three-yard run by Darren McFadden made it a very, very manageable third down. The Broncos out of the blitz and despite being in a shot gun, Frye hurried the throw. It wasn't much a throw. The ball just sort of floated out there and Champ Bailey grabbed it easily out of the air. On Denver's first play on their next possession, Brandon Marshall made a 24-yard catch after running his route after being put in motion. Two plays later, the Broncos ran a screen to Ryan Clady which cost them yards thanks to a very nice tackle by Asomugha. A confusing penalty pushed the Broncos back to the 17 yard line. Kyle Orton was sacked by rookie Matt Shaughnessy on the next play, and then a screen play to Eddie Royal was stopped by Stanford Routt and company on the right side. Another Matt Prater field goal -- this one extra "boomy" -- gave Denver a 6-0 lead with just over four minutes to play in the first quarter. A dumb intentional grounding penalty cost the Raiders 15 yards and a down. Kenny Peterson squashed Fargas behind the line of scrimmage and it become third down and impossible. Another blah run and it was punt time once again. A 64-yard punt by Lechler, all of which came by of the leg, was returned for a mediocre gain by Kenny McKinley. Moreno continued to own us on the ground with a couple of more nice carries. A third down blitz forced an incomplete pass on coverage by, yes, Chris Johnson! Mitch Berger, who seem as if has been punting forever, booted a smashing 12-yard punt out of bounds. Oakland started at their own 34 yard line and Charlie Frye shocked the crowd with a 26-yard scamper on the left side after a play fake. That exciting play capped the first quarter at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Sebastian Janikowski dropped in a 54-yard field goal as he routinely does. [via a.espncdn.com]

Second Quarter: The second quarter began with Frye looking deep for Louis Murphy; however, it was incomplete although an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders five free yards. Shortly, third down and long followed. A nice crossing pattern to Johnnie Lee Higgins picked up 12 yards and the first down as well. Then boom, I don't even know what just happened! Michael Bush, on his first carry of the game, goes 23 yards and in for the score. It's his first touchdown in nine games and a Sebastian Janikowski extra point gave Oakland a 7-6 lead early in the second quarter. Denver's next possession ended up with a punt after a first down. Mike Mitchell knocked down Orton after bringing the blitz on third down. Higgins returned the punt for a decent gain and the Raiders had good field position. After some plays, Elvis Dumervil grabbed Charlie Frye's facemask and was called for a roughing the passer penalty. A 15-yard penalty gave Oakland the ball at their own 48. A couple of run plays later made it third and manageable for Frye and company. Chased out of the pocket, Frye threw off of his back foot and hit Murphy on the right side. It was a great effort by both parties. Josh McDaniels threw out the challenge flag, but it only cost him a timeout in the end. The ruling on the field stood as originally called and Oakland had a first down at Denver's 41 yard line. McFadden picked up three yards on a carry to the left side as we Raider fans collectively as a bunch were wondering where Michael Bush was. Anyway, the game must go on. A one-yard pass from Frye to Luke Lawton on a play-action made it third down and six yards to go. Ah, now Bush is in the backfield. Out of the shot gun, Frye fired down the field to Schilens. It appeared as if Schilens had come down with it, but Denver's Tony Carter wouldn't give up on the play and made a nice play on the ball. Janikowski squeaked in a field goal to give the Raiders had a 10-6 lead over the Broncos. Denver opened up their next drive with what's been working well and that's been Knowshon Moreno's legs. A six-yard carry was all very well, but then Tyvon Branch blew the next one up in the backfield. An incomplete pass intended for LaMont Jordan set up a punt and a bunch of booing from the home crowd. A punt gave it back to Oakland, but it backed them up 15 yards after the Higgins return because of an illegal block in the back penalty on Sam Williams. According to commentator Steve Tasker, a former special teams specialist, claims there was no illegal block in the back. It didn't matter what he thought, however. A timeout was burned by Frye before the first play was run. Brandon Myers, filling in for the injured Zach Miller, made his first catch of the game for a decent gain. Michael Bush finally got a carry after his 23-yard touchdown in the first quarter and it was good enough for a first down. Frye was having communication problems with his helmet, so he ran over to the sidelines to get the play yelled at him. Andra Davis almost picked off Frye on the next play. Whew, that was close. Another near-turnover happened on the next play as Bush lost it; however, left tackle Mario Henderson was able to pick it up. A third down draw to Bush goes for 13 yards and Denver's defense had no idea. A solid run by McFadden took us to the two-minute warning. In good position for points, the Raiders looked to forge ahead some more. A nice throw from Frye to Murphy picked up a good chunk of yards and yet another 13-yard run by Bush took it to Denver's 16 yard line. Tony Stewart got into the act a few plays later with his first catch of the game. The Broncos got their stop on third down and the Raiders were confined to just three points. Janikowski booted through his second field goal of the day and Oakland had a 13-6 lead over Denver. Using up 22 seconds, the Broncos had three incomplete passes and then a short little pass over the middle to Jabar Gaffney. Tom Cable used his final timeout and forced the Broncos to at least bring out the punting unit. A 45-yard punt ended the half with Oakland on top over Denver by a 13-6 score. Oh, but wait as there was a penalty and so the Raiders got the chance to run one more play. A nice run for McFadden took us to halftime.

Honoring Chris Henry before the game, Brandon Marshall scored a touchdown during it. [via a.espncdn.com]

Third Quarter: The Broncos started the second half with the ball. A touchback by Janikowski plated Denver at their own 20. After picking up a first down, Kirk Morrison made a nice tackle in the open field to bring up a third down for the Broncos. Orton fired and completed it to Brandon Stokley as he, along with Tony Scheffler, made his first catch of the game on the opening drive of the second half. A 13-yard run by LaMont Jordan followed that as Hiram Eugene knocked him out of bounds. The Denver offense appeared to be firing on all cylinders as Orton hooked up with Eddie Royal in the middle of the field. A sense of urgency indeed from the Broncos offense, Gus Johnson. A big third down and long Denver could not convert thanks to a heavy blitz and great coverage by Chris Johnson. Matt Prater banged through his field third goal of the game and Oakland maintained their lead, with it now standing at 13-9. Oakland had the ball back and Frye hit Bush in the flat for a nice gain on the left side to pick up a first down. A toss to McFadden on the right side -- hey, McFadden in space -- picked up good yardage and even a first down in the process. Shaken up on the play was Champ Bailey, and he had to leave the game. A promising drive turned sour, however, with McFadden getting the ball stripped. Denver had it at midfield. A struggling offense has gained momentum just like that. On the first play, though, Asomugha blew it up in the backfield as he dropped Moreno for a four-yard loss. A stupid penalty on the other side of the field went against Stanford Routt and a third down and 11 turned into an automatic first down. A one-handed grab by Brandon Marshall gave the Broncos a first down and then he made another play all the way down to the Raiders' 19 yard line. Denver really took advantage of Marshall in this quarter when Asomugha wasn't on him. On a scamper by Kyle Orton, Tommy Kelly was down on the field with an injury. Some plays later, Orton hooked up with Marshall as Brandon was a yard deep in the end zone against a zone defense. Following that play, a fight occurred. I didn't see who exactly was involved, but it looked like Richard Seymour against some offensive linemen from Denver. Anyway, Denver cashed in on the McFadden fumble and the Broncos had scored 10 straight points to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter. Gary Russell finally got a chance to return a kick and it was actually a good one; however, penalty flag totally negated that one. It seems like the game is totally spiraling out now. A couple of sweet runs by Michael Bush -- including one of the 40-yard variety -- took the ball down to the 31 yard line of Denver's. Then, Darren McFadden had a huge run of his own that went for 28 yards on the left side. After a pair of one-yard Bush runs, the Raiders were still on the outside looking in with 28 seconds to go in the third quarter. On third down and needing a yard, another carry for Bush went nowhere but instead backwards. That ended the third quarter.

Yes, this is the correct reaction after JaMarcus Russell's performance. [via a.espncdn.com]

Fourth Quarter: To start the quarter, the Raiders were looking for the end zone. On fourth down, Cable elected to go for it. A fake dive and pitch to McFadden went for two yards, but was ultimately a yard short. Denver took over at their own one yard line. The defense stood firm, however, and Berger booted it to Higgins. A nice punt, Higgins backpedaled and was able to return it for some yards to his own 40 yard line. Carries by McFadden, Bush and then Bush again picked up a first down for the Raiders as they moved into Broncos territory. Frye dropped back to pass and was totally rocked by Andra Davis. Trying to get up to his feet under his own power, Frye just could not due to the impact of the hit. The trainers came onto the field and so, yes, JaMarcus Russell marched onto the field as we hung our heads. Where was J.P. Losman? An illegal shift penalty pinned the Raiders back even further. A run by Bush was followed up by a timeout. Let's have a recap within the recap for a second. Russell comes in and we have two men in motion at the same time, a weak run to the left side and then a timeout. Alright, so the run play wasn't on him. Still, you see what it's like with Russell in the game at quarterback instead of right tackle. Well, the next pass was totally short intended for Murphy and a five-yard spiking penalty on Louis brought out Lechler for a punt. The Broncos came out running it with Moreno and Jordan, and the Raiders are going to need a stop somehow to get the offense back out there. On the next play, a slant to Stokley went all the down inside he five as he beat Routt on that play. A horse collar penalty on Routt was tacked on. There was a bit of a delay afterward with some laser trouble in the crowd, but the game was continued. A stop on third down on the ground and a fourth down stop through the air held Denver to a field goal. After lasers and guys losing their pants, we had a bit of a scrummage after the field goal. It's all going down today. Just under six minutes remained with the Broncos on top, 19-13. A run by Bush and a four-yard reception by Schilens made it a very manageable third down for Russell. A low ball to Bush, that should have been caught, was dropped by Bush. The defense did their part, largely due to the sack, and Oakland was getting the ball back after the Denver punt. After a Higgins return, the Raiders had it at their own 38 yard line with still 3:29 to play. Russell was still the quarterback. On the first play, Cooper Carlisle had to scoop up a Russell fumble. God, we're doomed. Oh, but a flag on the next play on Andre Goodman gave the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory. A pass interference was rightfully called and new life had been granted. On second down, Russell was knocked out of the game. It's up to quarterback number three -- J.P. "Does He Even Know a Play?" Losman -- to save us now. After one incomplete pass by Losman, Russell was back in there. On fourth down, he fired it over the middle and it was caught by Tony Stewart who had enough for a first down. That took us to the two-minute warning. The first play out of it, Russell hit Stewart for nine yards. Following that, he found Schilens at the 10 yard line. Following an incomplete pass, an illegal contact penalty gave the Raiders an automatic first down at the five. There were 45 seconds to go in the game. Out of the shot gun, right tackle Cornell Green had a false start. That's pretty inexcusable. Still, it was a first down. Out of the shot gun, Russell dropped back to pass and has his arm hit as he he threw. The ball went out of bounds to the right. Then, on the next play, the impossible happened. Russell fires and it's caught by Chaz Schilens, his favorite target. With 35 seconds to go, the Broncos had just one timeout remaining. McKinley brought out the kick to the 21 yard line. Greg Ellis breaks through on the first play and sacks Kyle Orton while forcing a fumble in the meantime. After a second down incomplete pass, a deep ball to Brandon Marshall was broken up thanks to a huge hit from Michael Huff. A fourth down pass was completed to Brandon Stokley with about eight seconds to go; however, with no timeouts, Denver couldn't stop the clock. The game was over the Raiders had prevailed, 20-19, on the road over the Broncos.

The caption goes right here. [via cdn1.sbnation.com]

The Report Card: I'll give grades to the pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense and special teams. Of course, you're welcome to give your own grades in the comments.

Pass Offense: D+ -- When you only complete less than 50 percent of your passes and you throw for 115 yards with an interception, you don't even deserve a "D+" grade; however, when you lead your team down the field like that to win the game, there's a curve involved. I think this is even a little generous.
Rush Offense: A -- Michael Bush had a tremendous day on the ground and Darren McFadden was certainly very good himself despite just 12 carries. Overall, a touchdown to go along with a 7.1 yards per carry average is very nice. Getting that touchdown in the third quarter maybe would've bumped it up to an "A+" grade, but we'll take this one every single time out.
Pass Defense: B -- Brandon Marshall was contained to a degree and that's all you can really ask for against a great wide receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha covered him well, but Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson didn't. Overall, the heat was on Kyle Orton enough to make him uncomfortable back there at times.
Rush Defense: A- -- A bad start, yes, but the rush defense really put the clamps down. LaMont Jordan had a nice average, but Knowshon Moreno did absolutely nothing in the second half. This was probably our best game as a unit as far as the opposition's ground game goes.
Special Teams: B -- Maybe not a great return pursuit a few times and Lechler didn't have his best day, but overall, it was a really good effort. Gary Russell didn't get a chance to return too many, but Johnnie Lee Higgins was decent and Sebastian Janikowski didn't miss.

My Thoughts and Tidbits: Wow, that was a terrific ending. Who thought that Frye would get knocked out, Russell would get knocked out and then Losman would have to come in? Then, who thought Russell would come back in the game and then lead the team to a game-winning touchdown drive? Man, that was an incredible game. The defense really played hard. The defensive line brought the heat, the linebackers tackled and the defensive backs made plays all over the field. That's how you respond after a bad game, guys. Let's finally get two consecutive wins with us taking on the Cleveland Browns (3-11) next Sunday. Thank you, Oakland Raiders, for our early Christmas present.

Poll

Weekly Recap Poll: Who was the Oakland Raiders player of the game?

Pour Some Sugar on Me--What Happens When the Colts Lose

TJ Johnson — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 22:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Jim Caldwell: How could we lose this game? Peyton Manning: That idiot punter, Mitch Berger. Oh, and if they run it down our throats.

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The Broncos are like a bomb, baby, come and get it on.

What happens if the Broncos actually pull a miracle and beat the Colts tomorrow? How will they have done it? Is it actually possible?

Not only is it possible, I can already tell you what the game will look like. As the lead singer for the band Def Depard (one of the finest poets of his generation) would say,"Red light, yellow light, green-a-light go."

Since 2005, the Indianapolis Colts have finished 55-16, including the playoffs and Super Bowl season of 2006. That means the Colts have won 77% of their games. That's an insane number of wins in a 4-year stretch. If it helps you bend your mind around just how good this is, just imagine the Raiders losing percentage over the last 4 years and think about the exact opposite. The Colts have been as good as the Raiders have been useless.

Perhaps you'd like a Christmas analogy instead. It is the season, after all. The Colts are the guy at the company Christmas party who took the time to get everyone a give. He's classy and he's a winner. The Raiders are the guy who downed too much eggnog, got completely slobber-knocked, complains about not getting a raise, and hit-on everyone's girlfriend.

But we're not here to celebrate the ineptitude that is the Oakland Raiders (for that, every day is X-Mas). We are here to tell you what it looks like when the Colts are themselves inept. Of the Colts' 16 losses over this timespan, two occurred when they were resting their starters. So in reality, we have 14 legitimate losses during this time. This is enough to help us get an understanding of how to beat them.

I looked at all 14 of these losses from a statistical point of view, and, after averaging all of these games, generated what I believe is a solid statistical profile for what happens when the Colts fall. Quite frankly, I didn't need 14 games to do it. After about 5 games, the pattern became quite clear. However, I wanted to go all the way back to 2005 in order to at least get a reasonable sample size. I didn't want to waste time focusing on sample size. I simply wanted you to see just how teams, on those rare occasions when it happens, beat the Indianapolis Colts. Also, I have always wanted to say the phrase BC (Before Cutler).

The Games

First, you may be interested in knowing the dates and scores of the 14 games for reference purposes:

9/7/2008 - Bears 29, Colts 13
9/21/2008 - Jaguars 23, Colts 21
10/19/2008 - Colts 14, Packers 34
10/27/2008 - Colts 21, Titans 31
1/3/2009 - Colts 17, Chargers 23
11/4/2007 - Patriots 24, Colts 20
11/11/2007 - Colts 21, Chargers 23
1/13/2008 - Chargers 28, Colts 24
11/19/2006 - Colts 14, Cowboys 21
12/3/2006 - Colts 17, Titans 20
12/10/2006 - Colts 17, Jaguars 44
12/24/2006 - Colts 24, Texans 27
12/18/2005 - Charger 26, Colts 17
1/15/2006 - Steelers 21, Colts 18

Before we get into the statistical profile, you might notice a few interesting things from the list alone. First, as a non-divisional opponent, the Chargers have done rather well against the Colts over the last 4 years. Others have pointed out that the ability of the 3-4 defense to disguise zone blitzes has given Manning fits against the Chargers. While teams have beaten Manning with the 4-3 as well, it can't be denied that the Chargers have had very good success with him using the 3-4 (and to a certain extent earlier in Manning's career, the Patriots).

The Profile

Remember, this profile is an average of the 14 games since 2005 that the Colts have lost. However, I'm confident that it yields some trends that are undeniable if you want to beat Peyton Manning. Here is what an average Colts' loss looks like:

Now, we don't need to get carried away and automatically assume that the Denver Broncos must hit all of these numbers in order to win. We are talking, again, about an average profile of their 14 losses. And, it should be noted, that some of these numbers are rounded up or down. For instance, the sack numbers are actually 1.60 and 1.00. But getting 1.60 sacks in a game isn't possible, so one rounds up or down accordingly.

Now that the fine print is out of the way, what does this profile tell us about what the Broncos must do tomorrow to beat Peyton Manning? I've highlighted some key stats in predominately orange. Much will be what you would have expected, but now you'll have the numbers to back it up.

How to Beat Manning

First, notice what isn't important statistically in order to beat Manning. First, total yardage matters little. The same is true with total first downs and penalty yards. Lastly, while matching Manning on a average yards/pass seems important, total yards passing yards isn't important either.

What is important? Here now are the 5 keys to beating Manning, Def Leppard style:

1) From My Head, My Head, To My Feet. Denver must run. Then they must run. And when they are done running, they should run some more. For those of you that would like to see Kyle Orton shoot it out with Manning, you are going to be disappointed. For the Broncos to win tomorrow, they need to obliterate the Colts in the running game. In the 14 losses that I profiled, the Colts' opponents have averaged 36 rushing attempts and 165 yards on the ground/game. This contrasts to the Colts' numbers of 21 rushing attempts and 76 yards. This is a rushing differential of 89 yards.

Normally, the time of possession statistic is skewed to the team that is winning in the 2nd half and is trying to kill the clock at the end of the game. It goes against the traditional wisdom of establishing the run, dominating time of possession, and winning the game. Many others, including the Football Insiders, have busted this myth, and in fact, have maintained the opposite, that in today's NFL, teams use the pass to set up the run. However, in these 14 losses, the conventional wisdom is actually true for once. Most of these 14 games were in question up to the final quarter. Teams were not running the ball with big leads in the 2nd half in order to kill the clock. They were running the ball to keep Manning's butt off the field and establish the run. This is clear from the time of possession statistic, which is 1.2 to 1 in favor of the Colts' opponents.

2) Livin' Like a Lover with a Radar Phone. The Broncos need Kyle Orton to have a radar arm on Sunday. They absolutely must--and I mean must--get over 45%--on 3rd-down conversions. Currently, they are around 35%. When the Colts lose, they lose the 3rd-down battle, and generally, their opponents are above 45%. If Denver can't do this, they obviously won't sustain drives and they will be opening the door to Manning's quick-strike offense.

3) You Got the Peaches, I Got the Cream. Mitch Berger--yes, that guy--and Eddie Royal are key in this this game. Why? Field Position. Notice the differences in Average Net Punting Average and Average Starting Field Position for the Colts in these 14 losses. The punting statistic was most surprising to me of all the statistics that I studied in these games. The punting differential is a full 6 yards! This may not seem like a lot, but it really is.

Manning can score from anywhere on the field. There's no reason to hasten this through bad punting, bad coverage, and a field in which the Broncos are starting drives from inside their own 20-yard line. Currently, the Broncos start drives (on average) from their own 28-yard line. From the data above, everyone would agree this number needs to rise faster than Tom Cable's temper in a coaches-only meeting.

4) I'm Hot, Sticky Sweet. The average turnover margin (rounded) in the Colts' 14 losses has been -2. This means Denver needs to pick up fumbles when they hit the ground, and when Manning throws an errant pass, Denver needs to have hands like Lester Hayes (and people say I don't love the Raiders). As with any NFL game, turnovers have a massive influence in who wins games. For those of you that are missing some correlation coefficients, the correlation between team wins and turnover margin over the last ten years is .62. That's not a one-hit wonder with make-up and hair spray.

5) Lookin' Like a Tramp, Like a Video Vamp. Elvis Dumervil (and Co.) needs to be completely filthy in this game. He needs to make Lita Ford look like a church girl. In the Colts' 14 losses, their opponents have doubled them in the sack total (rounded). While getting 2 sacks would be nice, Denver also needs to pressure, hurry, and disrupt Manning all day. The Colts don't give up many sacks (less than 1 per game on average), but if there is ever a time for Elvis to show us he is "The King," it' s now.

Getting Some Sugar

The five keys to winning this game are not novel. In fact, many pundits and fans have been screaming for a pound-the-rock, control-the-clock, turnover-laden frenzy tomorrow. The statistics back all of this up. Mitch Berger (and let's not forget Prater) was a pleasant surprise, however. It reinforces why Josh McDaniels brought him in.

And I know how much Peyton Manning likes idiot kickers influencing the outcomes of football games.

Sometime, anytime, sugar me sweet.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Indy Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:06 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

16 days ago: Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Graham catches a short pass before running for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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There's nothing quite like back-to-back wins to put a shine into the work in the film room. The glow of the past two wins hasn't faded at all, but the upcoming contest against the Indianapolis Colts is starting to loom large. Before we get into our matchups and needs against the next foe, let's take some time to look back over what we've accomplished. Special teams, the nose tackle position and even raiderology are on today's menu. Let the feasting begin!

The Film Room I - KC Autopsy

A moment of silence for a team that has passed away, out of contention for the season and fighting for respect. It's a tough time to be a Chiefs fans, and I want to thank them for a week of intelligent football talk and good-spirited fun. Nice guys, over at Arrowhead Pride. But the nice guy's team, in this case, is finishing near last (if they don't awaken right now. You couldn't miss that on the tape.

I had mentioned that the game this past weekend, like most games, would come down to how Denver played in the trenches. The Broncos responded with a solid performance by the O-Line, prying open gaping holes more than large enough to pass a running back through. When Ryan Harris stepped out in the early second quarter and Tyler Polumbus replaced him, I wondered for a brief moment if we were seeing a very bad thing but there was no dropoff that I saw. Polumbus seems to have stepped up his game, as has Russ Hochstein. Both improvements are timely - and much needed.

Mistakes - Orton had an uncharacteristically bad red-zone play on the first drive, but he moved them well on the next drive. He was blindsided twice and lost the ball, but let's be real - if the defensive player hits the arm right, every QB loses those. Over his career Orton hasn't tended to that issue, so I'm not worried. I want to see those blindside hits stop, though. Orton was 'burping the baby again, an old and bad habit, but the O-Line doesn't get off scot-free, either. They bear some responsibility for the sacks and the one fumble. They really stepped up when they had to though, and that was the name of the game. They let KC get to the one and held them to a FG. INTs, negative plays, pressure and domination go a long way. They took us to an eighth win.

I've wondered about the progress of Richard Quinn of late mostly because I hadn't had the time to break down the ST work as well as I should. That's being fixed, and the guys on Upon Further Review have been kind enough to help me out. As I result, I've been seeing a lot of good things with Quinn and I'm pleased that he singlehandedly made a huge play on the faked punt. KC must have assumed that since others have caught the Broncos with those kind of plays, it would work again. Here's what Josh McDaniels had to say,

They went to a gadget-type formation and I know that there was a guy leaking out the other way and they had an opportunity to get that ball out there but TE Richard (Quinn) made a heck of a play. I don't know what happens if the ball gets thrown but it probably wouldn't have been too good for us. Whenever you break the formation and have a gadget-type play, we were prepared and we split out with them but you are never sure who they are trying to pick for or who they are trying to spring free. That was a big play in the game because we obviously took possession of the football in their territory.

It wasn't the only big play, either. The Broncos were unstoppable in the running game and despite some errors, still used the pass to score 2 TDs, which would have been enough by itself. The game was over when Cassel's QB rating hit 3.1. There isn't a mercy rule. Perhaps there should be. This was a good reminder of that fact.

The Broncos won despite some sloppy play that won't work in the upcoming weeks. In the final analysis, the Broncos committed too many errors and they can't win against the best if they do. But still, you get a sense of how the team can play, and there is a heck of a team in here. You have to balance the bad with the fact that we're seeing a lot of things getting fixed in the new systems the team has learned. When I go back to what I wanted to see from the team this year, that was at the top of the list. Nice work, guys.

Film Room II - The Special Teams

The emphasis on this week's review was the play of the Broncos' special teams this season. Everyone is in agreement that the STs can play better than they did in the first 10-12 weeks of the season. While there are now some obvious bright spots (David Bruton, Spencer Larsen, Darrell Reid, Darcel McBath), I felt that a major review might be in order. It was a great week to feel that way - wow, what a performance on special teams the Broncos put in place. Huge kudos to MHR favorite Spencer Larsen, who notched a huge 4 special teams tackles and to Darrell Reid, who trailed him with 3. Great job on ST! Eddie Royal looked comfortable and Mitch Berger was a monster - again. I don't know how he avoided the block on that one punt, but I was impressed. Berger has no history of frequently blocked punts; so despite his slower motion, he hasn't let it hurt the team.

How was our kicking game against KC? Take a look:

Extra Points Made-Attempts 5-5
Field Goals Made-Attempts 3-3
Red Zone Efficiency 4-6-67%
Goal-to-go efficiency 2-2-100%

That's the kind of efficient red-zone and ST play that wins games.

Some things are obvious. Royal hasn't had enough room to run on punt returns, mostly due to our tendency to let the offenses get into the 40/40 yard-line range, which lets the teams either punt into the coffin corner or just create a touchback, nullifying Eddie's chances of getting in a good runback. They got over that pattern during the past two games and had two wins. Are they connected? You decide. I'm going to vote yes.

Two names that I wanted to look more closely at this week were Richard Quinn and Russ Hochstein. I recalled Hochstein making a couple of serious errors on ST while we were losing and while I'd heard good things about Quinn's ST work, I hadn't caught him on film enough to develop an opinion one way or the other. that obviously changed in KC - his play on the fake punt was perfect and his blocking on kick returns was excellent as well. Nice to see!

The balance of veterans like Mario Haggan, Champ Bailey, Darrell Reid and Andre' Goodman with younger players such as Bruton, Larsen and McBath seems to have found an area of comfort. Lanes are being filled, discipline has improved, tackling is much better and, just as importantly, we haven't been pinning Royal back in coffin country. This is the first time I've seen us playing the way we need to on special teams in a long time. I can only hope it continues.

Safety in Numbers: It's also obvious that David Bruton was a heck of a 4th-round pickup and that Darcel McBath was a great investment. Over the next 5 years, with those two and Josh Barrett, we're in good shape at safety. There was pre-draft talk of moving McBath to CB if certain teams drafted him - McBath can cover very well and can tackle, too. Denver will keep him at safety, though, and for good reason. He won't replace Renaldo Hill anytime soon, but I love that our chances are that good at when we're covering folks.

The response to the recent rise in short-passing offenses (much like our own) has been a switch to fast, coverage safeties. I believe that McBath can be smoothly moved into the slot currently well-occupied by Renaldo Hill when Hill finally slows. Keep in mind that Hill, too, was a CB/S tweener who played CB during his first 4 years in the NFL. McBath seems to be very much in the same mold - he's also bright, like Hill, and was a team leader in college.

We can also go with two smart, effective covering safeties, and although I will miss Dawk's aggression and leadership when the time comes, Hill is an excellent leader and as mentioned, McBath was also a captain in his own right. I believe that David Bruton has the power to later fill many of B-Dawk's roles, although few will ever do so as well. Bruton was also a defensive captain, a pattern in McDaniels' pickups. Finally, Barrett's ability to cover the best TEs one-on-one and to interchange with Wesley Woodyard when needed is a nickel option that few teams can match. Although everyone, myself included, would love to see an Eric Berry on our team, we can establish safety as a lower-cost, high-return group at any point. The fact that all three have done good things on ST makes me even happier - that's a seventh of the game that we need to win, week in and week out. We're finally starting to win at it with a good mix of veterans and younger players. No surprise, then, that we're back to winning.

By the way, we've scored exactly 70 points in the past two games. Things have changed, and for the better. We still need to improve on our mistakes, but I like the direction things are going in.

raiderology

If I'm Al Davis, which is unlikely in the extreme, I'm having a contract meeting with Bruce Gradkowski's agent tomorrow. Gradkowski is on a one-year (2009) contract for $535,000, and in 2010 becomes a restricted free agent. That is one tough, talented guy and the raiders should get a clue: He's a good option right now and a good backup in the future. When's the last time they had a guy come on and win them games? It's ironic that he's the polar opposite of JaMarcus Russell - smaller and lighter, only 6'1" and 220 lbs, but he's smart, tenacious and can play this game. You don't need to waste a pick in the 1st round - you've got your QB in-house for this year and even next year if you want to make the effort to rebuild the team. The young man earned it. Consider his game against PITT:

Att/Comp Yds YPA TD INT QB Rating
20/33 308 9.3 3 0 121.8

Those are numbers that work for me. He has accuracy issues, no question, and his arm strength isn't what the team would like. I don't think that he's a long-term answer - he's just a heck of a lot better answer than Russell and they can keep him on as a backup when they find someone better. The Raiders love the vertical game too much to have a starting QB that doesn't have the arm for the long ball, but they still need one that has some common sense and drive. Mark Twain mentioned that the problem with common sense is that it ain't. That's been Problem 1 in raiderville for a long time and Russell is a perfect example of why. Right now, Gradkowski is a step up.

The raiders have some good running backs in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Darren McFadden fumbles too much, has always had issues with his upright style and injuries; he may mature well, but hasn't shown that consistently yet - so I don't count him. They have a fine young TE in Zach Miller, too. Their receiving corp will be mediocre or worse until they catch onto the fact that running fast is of no use if you can't catch the danged ball. They need a couple of possession receivers badly, preferably veterans who don't need to be bottle-fed. They also need to patch a couple of holes in the O-Line, as in much of it. If they can put together a couple of drafts that actually match their team needs, fine, then they can drop big dollars on a QB. Until then? Gradkowski is fine.

This is one example of how a person's feelings on the theory of team building color their approach to decision-making. I personally believe that you need an offensive line more than any other single factor in football. To me, there's no point in arguing about how to win a Super Bowl until you at least have a team that can contend for their division and I think that you start that with the O-Line and move on from there. The raiders seem to do everything backwards, so this is no shock, but they can buy a few wins for relatively few bucks with Gradkowski and they need to develop a longterm plan for a change.

Speaking of the dead, I found it interesting last week when Nnamdi Asomugha went on record as being against the moribund system that Al Davis has in place of not making defensive adjustments for other teams' systems. Davis stills lives and refuses to die on the theory that you play your own system come drought or flood and you ignore what other teams are doing. We all know how that's been working for Oakland. Since this is a team that we play again soon, I'm content to watch them ignore reality with aplomb, but it's interesting when your best player calls out your system in the media. In other cases, I think that kind of thing smacks of ego, but in this case, it smacks of a legitimate cry for help. One that will be ignored, though, like all the rest.

Concussions (briefly) Continued

The NFL is considering a rule change that involves the running back position. The idea behind it is to prevent the RB from using his head as a battering ram, a style of running that has become increasingly common. Running backs like this maneuver because it permits them to deliver a blow rather than just take them.

I'm torn on this. I'm greatly encouraged by the new guidelines for dealing with concussions, and I support rule changes that will reduce the number of head injuries and simply 'blows to the head', which we now understand to be equally bad or even worse, over the course of time. I recognize the the running backs have a legitimate point regarding this approach - they take so much punishment that it seems harsh to take away one of their few options in return.

However -- running in that fashion is going to increase the number of blows to the head that the athlete experiences. It's really that simple. Research has shown a link between frequent blows to the head, even if they do not induce a concussion per se, and increased brain damage. That's a huge problem - the cumulative effects of those blows are increasing the number of retired players who are experiencing loss of their cognitive faculties. What number of yards makes up for that?

From my admittedly-biased position as a retired doc, I'm in favor of this rule change. Using your head to hit people isn't, well, using your head. I'd like to see alternative techniques taught and coached. I'd like to see an end to the kind of problems that hits like Adrian Peterson's created when he used his head to smash into Detroit safety Louis Delmas. By bending down to where his head was only a foot or so from the ground, Peterson smashed his helmet into Delmas' helmet as Delmas came in to tackle him. It was deliberate, and damaging to both men, if more so to Delmas; the hit left Delmas on the ground. I also would like to see it prohibited to use the head to deliver any kind of hit by any player and would support considering a change in the way that tackling is taught. These changes will not greatly change the way the game is played - just how the players are taught.

I understand that many fans will think that if you change the way the game is taught, it's "not really football" anymore. I'm sympathetic, but let's be real here - no amount of money is worth becoming a walking vegetable in your later years. Demanding that players be willing to trade their own abilities in consciousness for the experience of the NFL is, frankly, barbaric. Yes, it's a tough sport. Yes, it's impossible to prevent all injuries and you shouldn't try. However - dropping some of the gladiatorial fervor in the name of living a normal life beyond football isn't an unreasonable approach. We shouldn't ask anyone to be willing to increase their chances of living with brain trauma just for the chance to be a professional football player -- or for any other sport's sake. I hope that we, as a culture, are willing to move beyond that kind of lower-consciousness belief.

QBs and Ratings

While we're considering the media, consider this from Kerry Byrne at si.com:

16.13 yards per attempt -- This is the number that truly leaps off the stat sheet to those who understand the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Passing yards per attempt is probably the single greatest individual statistical indicator of success in football, and maybe in all of sports. Teams that win the passing yards per attempt battle win nearly 75 percent of the time and the great quarterbacks almost always have high averages per attempt, from Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas to the greatest winner of all, Otto Graham, whose career average of 8.63 YPA is the best in history. to

So, when you see a number like 16.1 YPA, it pays to investigate a little further. Turns out Brees is just the fifth player since 1960 to average more than 16 yards per pass attempt in a game (min. 20 attempts).

It brings up an interesting point: Many teams - most, in fact - have moved to a NE-style offense with an emphasis on the short pass. That doesn't exclude throwing deep, but it does mean that teams will see more of the short passing game, which will tend to skew that number in the statistics. Since many of the offenses that emphasize the short pass use it much as teams used to use the ground game -- picking up 2-8 years at a time, keeping the clock moving and controlling the ball -- you will see the numbers on yards per attempt lessening. It's still true, however, that yards per attempt can be increased by yards after the catch, and that's an area where the Saints have excelled.

The Broncos are starting to throw deeper passes more often, and experience and comfort level between Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton is a big factor there. It paid off again, and was that Brandon throwing his TD ball to McDaniels? Nice...so much for Brandon leaving. He likes to talk, but they will open the checkbook to keep him (and Doom).

How many more longer passes? It isn't a vertical game onslaught, but this is from the list of the Broncos top-10 long plays each week:

49 4 3-6-DEN 24 (14:08) K.Orton pass short left to B.Marshall pushed ob at KC 27 for 49 yards (J.McGraw).
19 4 1-10-KC 41 (11:26) K.Orton pass deep left to T.Scheffler to KC 22 for 19 yards (C.Mays).
18 1 1-10-DEN 33 (14:55) K.Orton pass short left to E.Royal to KC 49 for 18 yards (B.Flowers).
17 2 2-6-50 (10:18) C.Buckhalter left tackle to KC 33 for 17 yards (M.Vrabel).

Orton added three plays for 14 yards, two to Marshall, one to Royal. The mid-range game is starting to work better and the running game was money all day long. Then there's the kind of rushing dominance that I hadn't seen in too long. The combination gives us a puncher's chance against anyone, if we can control the line of scrimmage.

Final Note: NTs come Full Circle

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com posted this last week:

3-4 nose tackles are scarce

Any team that plays a 3-4 defense knows that success starts up front with a massive nose tackle that plays over the center's head and forces double teams. In the NFL, 3-4 nose tackles are an endangered species. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams and somehow keep winning. The Jets have dropped three of four games since Kris Jenkins went down. Jason Ferguson of the Dolphins just found he is heading to IR, which leaves Paul Soliai to replace him. All three teams have playoff aspirations, but the lack of a quality nose tackle hurts their chances. So far, the Chargers have adjusted best.

He brings up an interesting point. Increasingly, we are seeing smaller NTs coming in and being effective through leverage and athletic ability -- as well as getting penetration. While it is essential that the NT be able to take up 2 or more blockers, it's not really important that he weight 365 lbs. when doing so. The ability to move other people, great technique and an explosive first step are even more important than size.

Since we are now at 12 teams using the 3-4 in some form full-time and many others that use some hybrid variation at least part of the time, we're not going to necessarily see every team moving to the traditional kind of huge player at NT. Players with skill, stamina and unusual strength and/or leverage as well as a scale-tipping 340 lbs will probably continue to be relatively rare. But as Marcus Thomas (314) has shown in Denver when playing behind Ron Fields (314), as the combination of Travis Johnson (311) and Ogemdi Nwagbuo (303) have shown in San Diego since their massive NT, Jamal Williams (348), went on IR and as Jay Ratliff (304) has shown in Dallas, there is more to the NT position than sheer size. Jason Ferguson comes in at 305, no larger than many 40-front defensive tackles. There's a pattern here.

One of the advantages that Denver has shown this season is that Ron Fields is obviously as good as the commentators who called him a steal believed. Even better, Marcus has shown considerable ability in coming in and handling the NT duties when Fields sits down. Thomas is a serious penetrator who obviously plays by relishing of the chance to compete at this level. If Chris Baker (329) develops this off-season, we may get to see Baker or Thomas showing us their skills at DE - personally, I'd love to see Marcus handling that position, but right now he's the second-best option at NT and a very close second at that. He is also said to really enjoy the position, so perhaps he stays there. An eventual flexible rotation that uses Fields, Thomas and Baker at NT, with Baker or Thomas rotating at DE at times isn't beyond possibility, either. That would be flexible and versatile, hallmarks of the amoeba approach.

Regardless of which one slides over (or whether they do - I'm suggesting an option, not predicting that we'll use it), the fact that we have some solid options in the pipeline at DL speaks well to the way the team will play next season. It also frees up a position in the draft, which always is a comfort. What I'm seeing is that we don't need a NT, thanks to good player evaluation last offseason.

Taming the Colts?

How will we handle Indy? Tough question, since they look like the cream of the league to me right now. If we do, we will do it much as we did against KC, even though Indy is so much better. We need for the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It's the only real way to limit him - he's just too good. We need our coverage to be what it's been the past two weeks - or even better. I don't know if even Champ and Goodman can shut down Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends, but for us to have a good chance, they will have to. It will be up to Ryan Clady and the offensive line to handle Dwight Feeney. Giving Orton time to throw and the right holes to our newly-empowered running game gives us the best chance. We will be mixing the zone blocking and gap blocking again - over the past two games, that has really begun to gel, right on time for a run at the wild-card slot.

We can't keep committing unforced errors. I suspect that our game will hinge on that -- too many players have contributed cognitive flatulence by taking stupid penalties this season. If we beat ourselves, we're toast. We need to show that we can play like a playoff team and make them beat us. Indy is a predator - always ready to pounce on the weaknesses a team manifests. We're moving two time zones and Indy is murder at home.

It's our toughest game of the year. I look forward to seeing where we measure up.

Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

16 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

25 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) reacts after sacking New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.

Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.

It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.

I spent a lot of time watching each of the losses and trying to comprehend exactly why, in terms of their on-field play, they were losing. It was a helpful exercise. The losses showed exactly why we were struggling and the victory last week showed equally well what happens when you rectify those same errors. Losing is usually about errors -- sometimes you just are beaten by a better team, but most of the time you open the door and usher them into the victory circle. Jimmy Johnson is a complicated man but he nailed it when he pointed out that you only have to beat about 10 teams in the NFL. The others will create the victory for you if you just stay around. That's exactly what Denver was doing.

The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.

For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.

Tight Spots

It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.

About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.

When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.

Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.

Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.

It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.

Being Offensive

Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.

The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.

In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.

An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.

At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.

There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?

A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.

Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.

I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.

I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.

Not-so Special Teams

In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.

It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.

And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.

If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:

Week 8, Baltimore: 20.55

Week 9, Pittsburgh: 21.64

Week 10, Washington: 27.91

Week 11, San Diego: 29.60

Week 12, New York: 30.20

The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.

Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.

Throwdown, Elvis Style

Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.

When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.

Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.

It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.

If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.

What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.

Rookies

There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.

Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.

It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.

This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.

That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.

I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.

Knowing Knowshon Moreno

Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:

"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."

Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.

Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).

Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.

By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:

During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.

To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.

By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.

Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.

Orton and Learning

There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.

It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:

"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."

What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.

You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.

Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .

For Kicks

Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.

Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.

"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.

Kansas City Here I Come

Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.

KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.

The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.

One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.

There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...

Go Broncos!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 12

TJ Johnson — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Giving Thanks!!!!

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The Stats don't mean what they say on Thanksgiving, Mom. You know that. That's what the day's supposed to be all about, right? Torture.--Holly Hunter

Thanksgiving and football. It didn't get much better in Week 12. Like you and your family, some teams greedily feasted on the mashed potatoes (Dallas on Oakland), some teams kicked up their feet and loosened their belts (Green Bay feeling fat and bloated as they coasted over Detroit), and some teams simply went straight for the pumpkin pie (New Orleans tasting a sweet victory over New England).

Your Denver Broncos stuffed the New York Giants like turkeys.

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of The Stats that Don't Lie. These stats are your extra gravy. They are the statistical whipped cream that you squirt into your mouth right from the can. They are the stats that you think about as you ignore your in-laws and fall asleep on the couch. As always, they are Turnovers (giveaways to be truthful), Field Position, Time Of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

Before we jump in, you might have noticed that you are getting this edition on Tuesday rather than the normal Wednesday. That's because Ted Bartlett was feeling a little under the weather, so we decided to switch days. Ted should be well enough to bring you his Shallow Thoughts and Nearsighted Observations tomorrow.

Until then, you're getting stats. And you're going to like it. Don't make me send you to eat at the kids' table.

The View From the Airplane

The Turnover-Margin-Bar Graph rarely lies. I enjoy putting this up each week because if you take nothing else away from these columns (and that's quite likely), simply take this picture and burn it into your brain:

As always, I point out that I "normalized" the New England game to take away the Hail Mary interception.

Quick, go grab the dork in your office or dorm or cell (for fans of the Raiders) that knows nothing about football and show them this graph. Tell them that a positive margin is a good thing. Then ask them how many of these games they think the Broncos might have won. They will certainly guess six, at a minimum. And they'll wonder if New England was a tie. If there's one thing we've learned about this year's Denver Broncos, it's that they are going to live and die by turnover margin. While this is true of most teams, Denver seems to be particularly suited to the influence of turnovers (more on this later). In the case of the Giants game, if a team has a plus-2 turnover margin, they win 78% of the time. It's little wonder Denver took Eli and Company to the woodshed.

Here is where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league with respect to turnovers (giveways, but I hate this word more than the word "Cutler"), field position, time of possession, and 3rd-down efficiency:

Denver has improved in most areas from last week, in which they were 10th in turnovers (giveaways), 27th in field position, 22nd in time of possession, and 21st in 3rd-down efficiency.

As the greatest poet of his generation (or at least his after party) Bret Michaels, once said, "Every rose has its thorn." 3rd-down efficiency is the thorn for Denver. This is precisely one of the reasons the Broncos are a team that, unlike Indianapolis, can't overcome turnovers. Notice that Indianapolis leads the league in 3rd-down efficiency. It's this high percentage that allows them to overcome turnovers in the first half like they did against both New England and last week against Houston. If the Broncos can't improve this percentage on 3rd downs, a minus-1 turnover margin could doom them (and I don't mean Dumervil).

This brings me to the New Orleans Saints. Look at their rankings. They are 16th in turnovers, 3rd in field position, 9th in time of possession, and third in 3rd-down efficiency. How are they 11-0 with such a high turnover (giveaway) number/game?

It's because that are a clone of the Indianapolis Colts, only with better field position. In the case of both Indianapolis and New Orleans, time of possession really is incidental to their yards/play average. They are both quick-strike offenses (look for my Quick-Strike Index coming soon in another piece). Their drives are generally quicker, take less plays, and are deadlier to the other team. So the fact that they commit a turnover (or two) early in the game is not as big a deal as it would be for another team (hello, Denver!).

Turnovers, as we have noted, are not all created equal. A turnover committed early in the game is less valuable to the opponent than a turnover late (less time in the game means less options, obviously). So as long as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees aren't throwing picks in the 3rd and 4th quarters (which they are not), their teams' ability to get down the field quickly can easily overcome these early turnovers.

Some of you might be quick to note that last week I said I believed Minnesota was a better team than New Orleans. I still feel this way. Minnesota won't be at all intimidated by playing in a dome, and I really am inspired by Jared Allen's mullet. As far as the AFC goes, it's time that I accept the fate that is the Indianapolis Colts.

This weekly piece wouldn't be complete without again pointing out the Bears' ranking of field position. This week they rank 1st. Imagine what damage they could be doing if Jay Cutler's arm wasn't such a wishbone.

Week-12 Summaries:

There were several games worth mentioning, but let's start with Denver's. We've already noted the turnover margin, but it's also important to talk about field position. Remember, field position is fluid, so as the ball is advanced up the field, the expected points value changes. Denver essentially kept the Giants on their side of the field for most of the game. The Giants only entered Denver territory three times in the entire game and one was on the last drive when the game was essentially over. Mitch Berger and Matt Prater both had their best games of the season. All of this kept the Giants on their side of the field where the expected point values were much much lower (for those that are looking for an in-depth analysis of the fluidity and point expectation of field position, it's coming). This certainly contributed to Denver's victory.

Another game was Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore, but only because the stats lied again. Pittsburgh won all four categories, but Baltimore escaped with the victory in overtime. This is again a lesson in the context of turnovers. The later a turnover happens in a game, the more valuable (or damaging) it is. Again, a turnover in the first quarter can be overcome, especially with a quick-strike offense. However, in this case, the interception that Pittsburgh threw as they were entering Baltimore territory was in overtime (as late as you can get), and thus, the key to this game. Just how much was that turnover worth? Stats guys will tell you a turnover, no matter where it's committed, is worth 4 points. Given Pittsburgh's season at this point, one could argue from the heart that it was worth a lot more.

The final game of note was the Monday night affair between New Orleans and New England. First, New Orleans coach Sean Payton thinks so much of the 3rd-down efficiency stat that he decided to shove the stat for this in Suzy Kolber's face at halftime. As a stats guy, I think it's cute. Beats Joe Namath. Second, on the Patroit's second drive, they were seizing momentum until Brady threw the interception. From that point forward, things seemed to snowball on New England. The impact of turnovers on momentum can't be overstated. Third, on New Orleans' touchdowns, they had drives of 59, 75, 76, 74, and 75 yards. They averaged only 5 plays/per drive on these drives, and finally, their average yards/play was 14.36. In other words, the Saints can get the ball down the field in a BIG hurry. Talk about a quick-strike offense.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

5 teams had 0 turnovers. 3 won (60%); For the season, 56/70 (80%)
12 teams had 1 turnover. 9 won (75%); For the season, 57/99 (58%)
6 teams had 2 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 43/94 (46%)
5 teams had 3 turnovers. 1 won (20%); For the season, 13/50 (26%)
3 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/24 (17%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/9 (0%)

Week 12 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 14 of 16 games played (88%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (2 games) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
There were 7 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 7 of the 8, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 59 out of 64 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.13 turnovers, 32:07 in time of possession, 40.09% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 29.55 yard line.

Top 5 in Week 12:

Top 5 in giveaways: Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Arizona are all tied with 0
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Minnesota 2.Cincinnati 3.Pittsburgh 4.Denver 5. San Diego
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Minnesota 2.Green Bay 3.San Francisco 4.Houston 5.Washington/Cincinnati
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Washington 2.Chicago 3.Cincinnati 4.Seattle 5.San Diego

Running Totals, Season (through 12 weeks):

176 games have been played this season
80.68% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
67.61% with a better time of possession
65.91% by the team who won on 3rd down
71.02% by the team that won the field-position battle.

12-week League Averages:

12-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.69

12-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

12-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.81%

12-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.68 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Kansas City, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 29:31 28.12 35.51%

Kansas City 1.36 29:10 30.11 22.21%

I'm downright giddy to watch Denver's defense destroy Kansas City on 3rd downs. Despite the fact that Kansas City generally doesn't turn the ball over, they also can't sustain drives. And unlike the Colts or Saints, they don't have the quick-strike ability to avoid 3rd downs. If Denver's 3rd-down defense holds true, they should be in excellent shape. As always, Denver must avoid turnovers.

What about playing in December in Kansas City? Is it the early gamet ime? The humidity? The crazy fans? I don't know. But Brian Dawkins is immune to it. And Josh McDaniels hasn't heard about it. And most important, the fans are probably still napping off their Thanksgiving, wishing Marty Schottenheimer had never left. Lucky for Bronco fans, he did. Playing against his teams was always tough.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 100% (percentage chance that Ryan Clady is a better draft pick than Branden Albert).

Giving Thanks! Broncos return to win column, dominate Giants 26-6

John Bena — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 04:55:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

26 days ago: New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, bottom, is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Wesley Woodyard during the second quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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We've talked a lot the past 5 weeks about what the Broncos are - both in our minds and in reality. I talked last Sunday after an embarrassing loss to the San Diego Chargers that the Broncos are what I thought they were in July - a team with talent, but a team that is not good enough, or deep enough, to make up for bad play in 1 of the 3 areas of the team - offense, defense or special teams. We saw that on Sunday - all three aspects of the team play poorly and the Broncos lose 32-3.

Tonight we saw what the Denver Broncos look like when all 3 parts of the team play well - a 26-6 win over the New York Giants.

Where to start? How about Brian Dawkins, who called a team meeting on Tuesday to get the Orange and Blue on the same page. The result? A defense that allowed 38 yards in the first half in shutting out the Giants at halftime for the first time since 2006. Dawkins was everywhere on the field, forcing a fumble and recovering a fumble. He also layed the wood to numerous Giants receivers and running backs making the G-Men pay for every yard. Dawkins left the game against the Chargers early and the team didn't seem to recover. Tonight, Dawkins led the way and the defense followed. A dominating performance.

Just how good was the defense tonight? Brandon Jacobs ran for 27 yards on 11 carries. Eli Manning was 24/40 for 230 yards - much of that in garbage time - while getting sacked 3 times. Manning threw a pick and also lost a fumble. The Giants has just 24 minutes of possession, and were 3-12 on 3rd down. Most impressive was the way the defense played in the Red Zone. They never had to. After allowing 17 Red Zone trips the past 4 games, the Giants never got inside the Broncos 20 until the final moments of the game. It was all Broncos, all the time.

What about the offense? The only thing that consistently stopped the Broncos was, well, themselves. Red Zone problems struck again early on when the Broncos had to settle for 2 field goals. One the Broncos' second trip, 3 procedure penalties killed the Broncos chances. That led to the now-famous F-Bomb by Josh McDaniels that NFLN played on it's broadcast. The Broncos listened, converting their next two chances. Overall, the team ended 2-5 inside the 20.

Kyle Orton was spectacular, save for one pass, in moving the team up and down the field. Orton ended 18/28 for 245 yards with a TD and a Pick. Most impressive to me was Orton's ability to sense pressure and slide around the pocket - something that many thought was a weakness in his game. As Orton has become more comfortable in the offense - behind a much better O-Line than he had in Chicago - many of you are seeing what I saw when Orton was at Purdue - a very, very good passing quarterback.

Knowshon Moreno was incredible as well. He's still trying to get that 100-yard game, but I think we can all see what made him the 12th pick in the draft. Moreno is starting to run with his eyes, and his instinct is taking over. Behnd Moreno, the Broncos ran the ball for 138 yards, and most importantly, the team was able to be well-balanced - 40 carries to 28 passes. Remember the Redskins game?? The exact opposite.

Of course, I can't forget about Brandon Marshall. The Beast was every part of that, making not one, but two amazing 1-handed catches at key moments of the 1st Half. For the game, Marshall had 6 catches for 86 yards. Tony 'Flash' Scheffler was solid as well, making 4 catches for 53 yards.

Kudos to the O-Line. After giving up a sack on the Broncos first play of the game, Kyle Orton was barely touched the rest of the night, and the running game showed some major signs of life. Russ Hochstein is proving to be a huge pick-up, and after struggling last week, Tyler Polumbus was steady at RT.

I have saved the best for last. The Special Teams group played their best game of the season - right up there with the group's performance against the Chargers nearly 6 weeks ago. Matt Prater was money - 5/5 on kick-offs, and 4/4 on field goal chances. Prater is now 15/17(88%) on field goal tries, and his re-found ability to kick the ball into the end-zone kept the Giants backed up all night.

Mitch Berger - the much-maligned Mitch Berger - was solid once again as well. Berger punted the ball 3 times, averaging 48.3 yards per kick, with a net of 41.7. The coverage was solid as well - with David Bruton once again showing he is going to be a player - he already is.

The Broncos now sit at 7-4, looking at 10-days between games before heading the Kansas City. Arrowhead is NEVER a fun place to play, especially in December(ask Pittsburgh). Nonetheless, the Broncos have some extra days to rest up, get healthy, and get ready for the final stretch run. It's fun again in Denver. The Broncos win!

GO BRONCOS!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 11

TJ Johnson — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

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Heeeere's Philip!!!!!

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"All stats and no play makes Jack a dull boy." --Jack Torrance

Week 11 in the NFL was a classic horror movie. There were some spine-chilling moments (Chiefs over the Steelers), terrifying screams (Ravens fans watching their red zone offense), and when the Raiders beat the Bengals, things got downright bloodcurdling.

For their part, the Denver Broncos treated their fans to a B-movie slasher flick, in which they played the victim. By the time the 4th quarter rolled around their rush defense had been so hacked to pieces, they simply tried to survive until the sequel.

Welcome again to the Stats That Don't Lie, Week 11. This is your weekly descent into statistical madness. These are the stats that give you Cabin Fever. They are the packaged little REDRUM of stats. As always, they are Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-down efficiency.

This week, we're going to shake things up slightly. While you'll get the same summary statistics that you get each week (for those that like light reading) for all the teams and all the games, I'm going to spend a significant amount of time in this piece looking at the first half of the Denver/San Diego game in order to demonstrate some important lessons about these four statistical categories. Hopefully, this will help us understand not only the complexities of how these four statistical categories intertwine, but the actions/strategies behind these statistics.

Let's first begin, however, at the 10,000-foot level. There's no reason to sugarcoat the Broncos' misfortunes. These turnover-margin numbers over the last four games are as one-sided as a Tom Cable/Randy Hanson cage match:

Denver's turnover margin keeps getting worse each game. And every game that they've lost, they've come out of the game with a negative turnover margin. Statistically, teams that have a turnover margin of -3 (minus three) only win about 17% of the time. However, more disturbing than this individual game (or its statistic) is the trend. When Denver was winning they were not turning the ball over, to the point of being labelled a "dink and dunk" offense. Now that they are losing, they are giving the ball up in droves. So we can talk all day and night (and we will) about Simms, Orton, onside kicks, who owns whom, and whether pigs have wings. The Broncos' season stops and starts in one place: turnover margin.

It might sound like a broken record, but if Denver does one thing against the Giants that will ensure a win, it is to simply hold on to the ball. Easier said than done, of course.

Denver continues its ghastly fall in all four of the statistically categories, however - not just turnovers. Here are where they rank against all 32 teams:

Denver is 10th in Turnovers, 27th in Field Position, 22nd in Time of Possession, and 21st in 3rd downs. I'm not saying this is becoming a ghost ship just yet, but things are getting rather ghoulish. Denver is beginning to drift into the territory of the Rams, Lions, and (GASP!) Raiders with these grisly rankings.

Notice the San Diego Chargers and where they rank. After Denver backhanded the Bolts in Week 6, the Chargers ranked 6th in Turnovers, 25th in Field Position, 30th in Time of Possession, and 17th in 3rd downs. Now they are 2nd in Turnovers, 9th in Field Position, 21st in Time of Possession, and 13th in Third Downs. All of this has come on the heels of a commitment to the running game--something Denver has struggled with.

You can certainly draw your own conclusions about the other teams on the list, but if I'm picking a Super Bowl match-up today, you can go ahead and give me New England and Minnesota based upon these statistics. Perhaps I enjoy the prospect of Jared Allen talking about mullets next to Tom Brady talking about Gisele. Or perhaps I simply think the Colts' field position struggles will cost them at some point and that the Saints give the ball up too much on average.

Before moving on to the weekly rankings, I can't resist pointing out that the Bears rank second in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could inflict on opponents if their QB didn't dispense interceptions like Pez candy.

Week-11 Summaries:

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

7 teams had 0 turnovers. 5 won (71%); For the season, 53/65 (82%)
11 teams had 1 turnover. 4 won (36%); For the season, 44/87 (55%)
5 teams had 2 turnovers. 3 won (60%); For the season, 43/94 (46%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 4 won (67%); For the season, 12/45 (26%)
2 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/21 (19%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/8 (0%)

Week-11 Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 8 of 16 games played (50%). This is the lowest percentage for turnovers I've seen all year.
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 47%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 9 of the 16 games played (56%). This is the lowest percentage for field position I've seen all year.
There were 5 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 4 of the 5, the same team won on the scoreboard (80%). For the season, this stat is 52 out of 56 games. In only 2 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.38 turnovers, 32:14 in time of possession, 47.42% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.63 yard line.

Top 5 in Week 11:

Top 5 in giveaways: 7 Teams tied with 0
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Pittsburgh 2.Minnesota 3.Green Bay 4.New York Jets 5. Cincinnati
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Minnesota 2.Jacksonville 3.Atlanta 4.Indianapolis 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.New Orleans 2.San Diego 3.Oakland 4.Kansas City 5.Chicago

Running Totals, Season (through 11 weeks):

160 games have been played this season
80% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
67.50% with a better time of possession
66.25% by the team who won on 3rd down
71.25% by the team that won the field-position battle.

11-week League Averages:

11-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.68

11-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

11-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.91%

11-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.81 yard line

The Denver/San Diego Game

Even though there were several interesting games from last week, including one where the stats did lie (Detroit/Cleveland), this is the weekly look in-depth at the Denver/San Diego game. So let's see what we can learn:

Drive 1 - Denver

Eddie Royal takes the ball from his end zone and returns it to the 26-yard line, so it's better than a touchback. Denver proceeds to line up in a series of Single-Back, 3 WR sets, varying slot-left and slot-right. They also use one shotgun formation to run for a 3rd-and-3 conversion.. They cram the ball off of the right tackle, getting huge chunks of yards until they are stopped at the San Diego 17-yard line. In the 2nd-down play that follows, Simms doesn't step up into the pocket, is stripped of the ball, and Denver commits its first turnover of the day. San Diego recovers at their own 31-yard line.

What can we learn from this drive? Denver chews up 4:25 of clock on this drive, only to have 3 to 7 points destroyed by a turnover. So even though Denver is ahead in time of possession, they are behind in the turnover battle and in field position. Here one can see that time of possession is much less important than the fact that Denver could not extend its drive and score. Even worse, the momentum has clearly shifted in San Diego's favor. Turnovers kill. Time of possession means nothing without a score.

Drive 1 - San Diego

San Diego takes over on its own 31-yard line. They use a series of their own single-back formations, I and Off-I formations to gash Denver in the running game off left end and up the middle. Denver's middle linebackers are consistently getting caught in traffic and a stupid personal foul penalty allows San Diego to score an easy touchdown.

San Diego holds onto the ball, chews up 4:37 of clock, achieves two 3rd-down conversions, and the score. So now the Chargers are leading in all four statistical categories. But the most important stat of this drive is San Diego's average yards/play: 7.1 yards.

Drive 2 - Denver

Royal takes a touchback, which is better than nothing. This drive is a disaster, however, with two penalties, and Simms looking very rusty in the shotgun formation. The drive ends in a sack and an unconverted 3rd-down opportunity. Even worse, the ineptness of the offense forces a Denver punt from its goal line.

Drive 2 - San Diego

San Diego takes over at its own 43-yard line after an excellent Mitch Berger punt. However, San Diego is benefiting from excellent field position already in this game. San Diego continues to show a variety of single-back, shotgun- , and offset-I formations. A stupid penalty from Jarvis Moss helps give San Diego another easy 3rd-down conversion, and before one can say "LT," San Diego is deep into Denver territory. Although they settle for a field goal, they've added to their lead and taken another 7:14 off the clock. If we looked at the 4 statistical categories at this moment we would see:

Turnovers: Den (1), SD (0)

Field Position: Den (23), SD (37)

Time of Possession: Den (7:15), San Diego (11:54)

3rd-Down Efficiency: Den (1/2), San Diego (3/4)

Drive 3 - Denver

The ball flies through the end zone for another touchback, so Denver gets the ball on its 20-yard line once again. Denver is victimized on this drive by a tipped pass, a penalty on Ryan Clady, and a safety blitz on third down. So Denver goes three and out. It's important to note that Denver is doing nothing whatsoever to help itself in the field position battle.

Drive 3 - San Diego

The Chargers start from their own 27-yard line. They now use a lot of play action off of their offset-I formations to march down the field with level-two out routes. They also convert a big 3rd-and-one conversion in the process with a back shoulder fade to Vincent Jackson. Denver only rushes 3 or 4 at a time, so it's easy pickings for Phil Rivers. A couple of bad calls by the Chargers sets up a long 3rd-down conversion that the Chargers can't quite pick up. The Chargers settle for another field goal while taking more time off the clock. However, the key stat for the Chargers from this drive is passing yards/play: 10 yards.

Let's face facts. This game could be 21-0 at this point.

Drive 4 - Denver

Royal takes the kickoff return to the 38-yard line. For once, Denver starts with good field position. And the Chris Simms experience is also done, as Kyle Orton jogs onto the field. Orton uses a series of max-protect shotgun and single-back formations to zip some deep balls on the left side of the field. Denver is quickly to the Chargers 4-yard line. On the next play (Single-back, slot-right formation), Moreno fumbles. Despite the fact that Moreno had actually crossed the plane, the referee rules that the fumble stands. San Diego takes over at the 20-yard line.

Denver squanders another opportunity with a penalty. Throw time of possession and 3rd downs out the window. This drive was all about the turnover. At this point in the football game, 2 turnovers have essentially cost the Broncos between 6 and 14 points.

Drive 4 - San Diego

San Diego starts at their 20-yard line and it's their goal to now kill clock and take it into the half with runs out of the offset I-formation. This is the first time San Diego has gone conservative all game. And what does it get them? Three and out. The punt is also horrible, only traveling 28 yards.

Drive 5 - Denver

Denver again gets the ball in good field position, at their 45-yard line. This is a perfect opportunity to get some points before the half. Denver comes out in the Shotgun. Orton tries to go to a deep out to Royal, but is intercepted.

Drive 5 - San Diego

San Diego takes over at their own 42-yard line. Turner again goes conservative, letting the clock hit halftime.

At halftime, when the game was effectively over, here is where both teams stood in the four statistical categories:

Turnovers: Den (3), San Diego (0)

Field Position: Den (29.60), San Diego (32.40)

Time of Possession: Den (10:43), San Diego (19:17)

3rd-down efficiency: Den (1/3), San Diego (1/3)

What does all of this teach us about how the four categories work together? There are several points to consider:

1) Turnovers depend on context and situation. As has been said many times, a Hail Mary at the end of the half is not as important as a fumble in the red zone. This game certainly illustrated that. In this case, the three Denver turnovers cost them points. They could have had (in my estimation) at worst 3 FGs, and at best 2 TDs and 1 FG. This represents between 9 and 17 points.

2) Field position is fluid. The Football Outsiders are the ones who have coined this phrase, but it's certainly true. In short, it means that your chances of scoring increase/decrease for each yard you move north or south. In this case, the Broncos gave the Chargers good field position twice in the first half, once with a turnover and once with their three-and-out drive after a touchback. And they paid for it. The Chargers put up 10 points during these opportunities. Short fields are not good, unless your team is getting them.

3) Time of Possession doesn't equal run domination. This is an important concept, and was touched upon last week in the comments to the Stats That Don't Lie by MHR members like warmick. San Diego won the time of possession in the half through through a balanced attack (14 passes, 16 rushes). Furthermore, San Diego only had four more rushing yards than Denver going into halftime. So how did they do it? They simply ran more plays and sustained their drives with scores, despite having the same number of drives as the Broncos. They did it through a steady yards per play average. In the 2nd half this became even more pronounced, as San Diego ran more often to kill the game clock. Thus, the huge time-of-possession advantage that San Diego possessed at the end of the game was also a result of them being ahead at halftime.

4) 3rd down is important...if you need it. Don't get me wrong. 3rd-down efficiency is a critical stat to measure because it means you are sustaining drives, and, hopefully, you are scoring at the end of these drives. However, if your offense sustains its drives on 1st and 2nd down, the 3rd-down-efficiency battle may not be as important. In this game, on the Chargers' third drive of the afternoon, they got a lot of big plays on 1st and 2nd down, and, as such, only faced 2 third-down conversions.

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to New York, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.40 28:56 27.51 35.99%

New York 1.60 34:06 31.68 43.10%

While these statistics would indicate a Giants victory, I'm not buying it. There are several reasons I feel this way. First, there's a reason why the Giants are complaining about travelling on a short week to altitude. That's because it will have an effect. Second, Eli Manning has a gunslinger streak in him that can be coaxed out with a few blitzes (something Denver did not do against San Diego). So look for Denver to get a turnover or two. And third, losing three home games in a row is a rarity for any Bronco team. That's a horror movie no one wants to see.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 2.5% (percentage chance that Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno are still upset with each other)

MHR Chalk Talk - Chargers at Broncos ('09)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:30:11 -0000

Well, it turns out the Broncos are much better than many people thought, but not nearly as good as some had hoped for. After beating a group of pretty good teams (NE, SD, DAL, CIN) and two not-so-good teams (CLE, OAK), Denver lost to two pretty good teams (BAL, PIT) and lost to a not-so-good team (WAS).

All in all, the team is still 6-3, tops the AFC West, and has the tie break over SD. So far, so good. Now comes the bad news. SD is a team that is starting to surge, while Denver has dropped three straight. QB Kyle Orton is hurt and may not play. If Kyle can play, he may not be 100%. While Denver has home field, we have to bear in mind that SD has the "advantage of first loss", which is the concept in coaching that a team learns more from losing to an opponent than winning. In the NFL, it is hard to beat a team twice in one season.

Frankly, Denver has a tough battle in front of them this week, and I'm glad that the new format for the MHR staff picks won't force me to pick this game.

Still, I think the future overall looks bright. Really.

I was unable to watch the entire game against WAS because of my day job. I was able to catch a few things worth passing on:

First, I like that Denver challenged the Redskins deep. I saw both throws downfield that Orton made for long TDs. I've always said that Orton can throw long, he just isn't schemed that way. Did the WAS coverage break down and make mistakes? Absolutely. But that's not the point. The passes were long and on target. More so, the errors happened because the Redskins didn't respect the deep pass, and other teams may do the same.

Second, I've always been a fan of the officials, and always come to their defense. This week is no exception. I saw three terrible calls by the officials, but none changed the face of the game. I also believe that none of them were "purposeful", as some folks like to claim when they see a bad call. They were mistakes, and anyone could make them. So I continue to love the officials, and can't blame the game's outcome on them. However, the errors I saw were bad enough that I would imagine the League sent an acknowledgment to the Broncos earlier this week. Here's what I saw (on nearly three back-to-back plays).

First, Brandon Stokley catches a ball with both feet well over a foot in bounds. The catch is ruled out of bounds. Denver doesn't challenge, since it was third down and the catch was short of the marker. Any official could mess up this call, and I know I couldn't do a better job than these guys. No problem.

But then, Denver punts the ball and an opposing player knocks the punter to the ground. It seemed to me that the opposing player didn't even make an effort to slow down. Combining the 15-yard penalty with the inbounds catch that Stokley made previously, this would have given Denver a first down. Now I'm not going to begrudge the officials the first down for a couple of reasons. First, Denver could have challenged the reception, but didn't. Second, perhaps the official might have called it "running into the kicker" instead of "roughing the kicker", and the penalty wouldn't have made a difference. Still no problem. Except for one thing...

C'mon guys! How do you miss a guy flying into the punter and driving him into the ground? In Stokley's case, and in the case of Mitch Berger, neither player tried to be theatrical to get the call. A good referee ignores theatrics, and only pays attention to what his eyes tell him. Fine. But why wasn't the assigned official watching the punter (as he is supposed to do)? The only excuse I can think of is that the hit was so late after the punt that the official had shifted his focus downfield. While this is understandable, it just tends to show how inexcusable the offending player's action really was.

At this point, even the announcers were siding with Denver, having noted both calls. Had enough?

Soon after, the WAS QB fumbles the ball and Denver recovers. Nope. The official says something about forward progress and the whistle. The announcers look at the replay. The ball comes loose, the player hits the ground, Denver's player reaches for the ball, AND NOW the whistle blows. The play should have been reviewed, WAS reviewable after all, and Denver clearly got the ball back. Does it change the game? I don't believe so. Here again though, the announcers were stunned. So was I.

The officials have the toughest job on the field. Not only are they nitpicked by guys like me, but they have seconds to see the entire field and try to get a call right. They have to memorize a tricky rulebook, and they get second-guessed by every fan with replay and slow-motion abilities. So why am I bringing up these mistakes? I've written a million times that I respect these guys, and will never blame them for a lost game. Like the weather, illness, family tragedies, etc, the refs are a part of the game that players have to contend with. The difference is that the refs are trying to do the right thing. So here's a game with some pretty awful calls, and a game that we lost. Are you hearing me griping? I hope not. I don't fault the refs for this game, or any game. I'm thankful for the work that they put in, and the effort that they extend in trying to get as many calls right as possible. I tip my hat to them.

So what happened to Denver? For what it is worth, I think the loss of Orton in the second half was the critical factor. We still need to work on some issues, but Chris Simms wasn't able to carry the load on Sunday, and Orton was missed. Simms completed 3 out of 13 passes and had an INT.

The team IS working on those other issues, though. Orton was allowed to make a couple of deep throws, and they scored. I saw some more zone blocking than it seems we have been doing lately, and I hope this continues. Our team has beaten a lot of good teams this year, and really only lost to one team that I would have expected them to beat with confidence.

SD has won every game since the last Denver game, including wins against the Eagles and the Giants. When Denver played SD a few weeks ago, the star players of SD (including Antonio Gates, Darren Sproles and LaDainian Tomlinson) were inconsistent. They seem to have shaken off the fog, and are now playing in good form.

Without Orton, I have to give the edge to SD for this game. With Orton playing, but not at 100%, I have to give the edge to SD as well. If Orton is 100%, we have the home field. Now the concern goes to other injuries.

Ryan Harris at RT is still out. Brandon Marshall (WR) didn't practice on Wednesday, and Correll Buckhalter was limited. That is a lot to contend with. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

Here is a list of the notable (starter) SD injuries:

Jeromey Clary - RT
Ogemdi Nwagbuo - NT
Nick Hardwick - OC
Shaun Phillips - OLB - limited in practice.

Both teams have key injuries all over the field, but no injury is as difficult to adjust for as the QB. The edge goes to SD. If Orton can play, and can play at or very near 100%, Denver has a decent chance. Much of the playcalling for both teams may be focused on sizing up and taking advantage of the opposing injury replacements.

Denver's keys to the game -

If Orton is out, go full tilt with the run game. Even against a 3-4, the wide runs may be possible if Phillips is out.
Stop Sproles in the screen game. Consider assigning a LB to him.
If Simms struggles as badly as last week, consider giving Tom Brandstater a try.

San Diego's keys to the game -

Take away the run. If Orton is in, pressure him into running on that ankle. If not, take away the run and dare Simms to beat you.
If Marshall is out, DON'T double Royal. Denver has excellent depth at WR, as well as several TE receiver options. Instead, take away the deep game. Denver's throws are likely to be short passes, and the biggest danger is yards after the catch.
Watch out for Royal on returns. SD has an excellent chance to win this game on both sides of the ball, but can't afford to give up points or field position on STs.

If Denver loses this game, Denver is tied with SD in head-to-head games, and needs to win more games than SD from here on out. If Denver wins this game, they get to keep a lead on SD, AND win the head-to-head tie break. DEN has some tough games left, so there is little room for error.

This is the most important game of the season so far for the Broncos, so we'll see how well prepared they are.

Go Broncos!

Poll

Let's say: You're the coach. Denver has a critical game this week against the Chargers. Orton is healing from a tear in his ankle. Orton claims he can play on the ankle, but the ankle isn't fully healed. Do you...

Play him. Denver must keep the lead and the tie-break over SD to make the playoffs.

373 votes

Rest him. What good is Orton (or the team) if Orton re-injures the ankle, and misses several games as a result?

527 votes

900 votes | Poll has closed

Mitch Berger...he's got a "good personality"

TJ Johnson — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:30:20 -0000

Sometimes the hot girl at the bar is only hot because she's wearing a lot of makeup and the lights are dimmed low. And while she looks great now, you find out later it was all show, and perhaps you just had a little too much to drink.

Her friend, on the other hand, is only slightly above-average. She falls into the "good personality" category. But you know she's the kind of girl you could bring home to momma.

Which one should you choose?

Neither. This isn't about you. It's about the Denver Broncos.

And they did NOT choose the hot girl.

They chose Mitch Berger.

You know the backstory. When the Broncos signed Mitch Berger three weeks ago, it caused quite a stir in Broncos Country. The Broncos were 6-0. But the dirty little secret was that their punt-coverage unit was horrible. Not because the coverage was bad, but because Brett Kern was out-kicking the coverage.

Denver has dropped three straight games since the signing of Berger. But I wouldn't exactly say he's to blame. As Lindsay Jones points out today in her article from the Denver Post:

Berger's gross punting average in the past three games is several yards shorter than Kern's — 39.7, compared with 46.1 for Kern — but the average net distance when returns are factored in has been slightly better (36.5 to 34.5). Berger also has put only one punt in the end zone in three games.

It turns out the girl with the personality may have actually helped the Broncos, after all.

Of course, some at MHR were against the move. And they will continue to be. Some of us were for it. The day the move was made, John Bena had this to say:

For many of us, both on this site and on MHR Radio, we've been discussing the concerns in the punting game. After the Broncos beat the Bengals in Week 1, the team spent the off day working out punters. I wrote that Kern's ineffectiveness was costing the Broncos - at times 10 yards per punt - compared to some of the better punters in the NFL. That's a first down each change of possession - when you have a defense playing the way Denver's is right now, well, that's a HUGE deal.

Several days later, I wrote a statistical piece as to why the move was made, making the case for Berger based on his ability to limit the amount of opportunities the other team had on punt return:

In the punting game, putting your opponent in their red zone and limiting return opportunities are the most important factors in winning. In fact, the two most important positive relationships between winning and punting are the percentage of your punts that you put inside the 20 and the percentage of punts not returned. Again, don't let your opponent have the opportunity to have opportunity!

And finally, here is a quote from Berger himself before they face the Charger this Sunday (again courtesy of the Lindsay Jones story you can find here). Either he reads Mile High Report or he's a punter who understands what helps teams win games:

"You just want to hit balls accurate and high and give your guys as much time to cover as you can," Berger said. "Hopefully you get some fair catches where (Sproles) doesn't have a chance at all. You want to put the ball in the part of the field where he has the least options possible."

The girl with personality is also well-spoken, which is another plus. Mother will certainly like that.

Admittedly, the debate isn't over. If the Broncos drop another 2 games in a row, the "curse of Kern" talk will again surface. However, Berger is doing his job, even though on TV, he's not got the "big leg" that the casual fan mistakenly associates with winning games. It's about limiting the ability of the other team to get return yards.

Broncos fans, let's not think we need to go back to the hot girl again because we're a little bored. It looks way too needy. And you simply don't need her anyway. She's high maintenance and out-kicks your coverage.

Go Broncos!!