SB Nation - Rob Ninkovich

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

4 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

New England Patriots 53 man roster - some thoughts

MaPatsFan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 03:04:36 -0000

by Stephan Savoia - AP

7 months ago: New England Patriots head football coach Bill Belichick looks over his rookies during football minicamp at the team's practice facility in Foxborough, Mass., Friday morning, May 1, 2009 (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

View full size photo »

We stay with 2 QB's, LB is a bit weak, TE will be a position to watch, OL is stacked on the interior...let's break it down position by position (props to NESilver for his comment in this thread)

Offense: 25

QB: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer (2) - Odd we keep only 2, but that could change when the season starts.
RB: Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis (5) - Solid group.
WR: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis, Saim Aiken, Julian Edelman (6) - Break out the air raid sirens. Edelman looked like "Little Welker".
TE: Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker, Michael Matthews (3) - Like this group, Matthews is a big man which must mean "blocking TE". Baker has good hands which we haven't seen in NE TE's for a long time.
OL: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Nick Kaczur, Sebastian Vollmer, Rich Ohrnberger, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell (9) - Deep on the interior, Vollmer is the next stud.

Defense: 25

DL: Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Ron Brace, Mike Wright, Myron Pryor (7) - Liking the depth, glad to see Pryor make the roster
DE/OLB: Derrick Burgess, Tully Banta-Cain (2) - Can you say, "4-3?" I knew you could. Here comes the pass rush.
LB: Adalius Thomas, Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich (6) - Might be considered a little thin, possibly why NE is experimenting with a 4-3.
CB: Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, Terrence Wheatley (5) - Wheatley barely hung on to his spot. I hope a "shutdown corner" emerges.
S: Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Patrick Chung, Brandon McGowan, Matthew Slater (5) - Good group, although Slater will, most likely, be IR'd.

Specialists: 3

K: Stephen Gostkowski - What can I say? One of the best kickers in the league. A machine through the uprights and consistently boots kickoffs into the endzone.
P: Chris Hanson - Game changer. Massive hangtime and very good accuracy.
LS: Jake Ingram - Many laughed when Hoodie drafted Ingram. The rookie wins the long snapper battle.

Injured Reserve

OLB: Shawn Crable - Depressing. The dude can't catch a break.
RB: Chris Taylor
OL: George Bussey - Adds depth for next year.
LB: Tyrone McKenzie - Looking forward to seeing him inside for 2010.

Poll

What do you think of the roster?

Lovin' it!

524 votes

Too early to tell.

722 votes

Hate it.

66 votes

1312 votes | Poll has closed

Boilers in the pros: Preseason week 1

BoilerTMill — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 13:56:12 -0000

With the first week of the preseason in the books I wanted to take a quick look and see how all of our guys did in week 1. Obviously many guys are established on rosters already, but some are fighting for spots. This was a lot of fun, as I did most of the research on Sunday night, but waited until this morning to post it because there were a pair of preseason games last night. If I have time, I think I will make this a regular feature, as I have no weeded out hte teams that do not have former Purdue players on their rosters. Some guys, like Charles Davis, were happy finds because I didn't know they were still kicking around out there.

Here is how everyone did in week 1:

Ladies and gentlemen, your reigning NFL offensive player of the year.

Arizona Cardinals - Chike Okeafor (OLB) - 11^th year on team. Had a tackle against Pittsburgh in opener. Likely starter.

Atlanta Falcons - No players on roster

Baltimore Ravens - No players on roster

Buffalo Bills - No players on roster Side note: Who the hell is Gibran Hamdan? Apparently, he is a former IU quarterback that is on their roster, but I have never heard of him.

Carolina Panthers - Anthony Heygood (LB) - Undrafted free agent fighting for roster spot. Had one tackle in preseason opener. Landon Johnson (LB) - 6^th year in league, fighting for roster spot. The Panthers played their first game Monday night and Landon had no stats.

Chicago Bears - No players on roster

Cincinnati Bengals - Greg Orton (WR) - Undrafted free agent fighting for roster spot. Had no statistics in 17-7 loss at New Orleans

Cleveland Browns - No players on roster

Dallas Cowboys - Anthony Spencer (LB) - 3^rd year with team. Had one tackle in loss to open preseason. Likely starter.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton (QB) - Had brutal debut as starting quarterback with three interceptions. Completed 9 of 16 passes for 89 yards. Is still listed as the starter for now, but he obviously must improve. Brandon Gorin (OL) - Trying to return to NFL after starting 8 games at tackle for St. Louis in 2007. Six year veteran with 26 starts and former member of the Visa Five Layers of protection, thus making him the rare offensive lineman with an endorsement deal.

Detroit Lions - Cliff Avril (DE) - Second year player. Had two tackles as Lions won on late field goal. Stu Schweigert (S) - Found a home in Detroit last year after getting cut by Washington and Denver. Had four tackles in preseason opener and should be safely on the roster. He is also loving the fact he plays for his hometown team. John Standeford (WR) - After years on the Colts practice squad, finally made a regular season roster with the Lions. Emerged as #2 receiver late last season with four starts. No stats in opener

Green Bay Packers - No players on roster.

Houston Texans - Jacques Reeves (CB) - 6^th year in league. Will likely start at corner after breakout season in 2008. No statistics in opener. Jeff Zgonina (DT) - An astounding 17^th season for the last active player from the Colletto Era. Played in all 16 games last year with two starts. Is fighting for a roster spot apparently. No statistics in opener. UPDATE: It is no wonder Reeves had no stats in the opener, as he suffered a broken leg in camp and will be out for some time.

Indianapolis Colts - Curtis Painter (QB) - Rookie likely playing 3^rd string quarterback. Took the majority of snaps for the Colts in a 13-3 loss that was a boring as it sounds. Completed 10 of 17 passes for 77 yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Uche Nwaneri (OL) - 3^rd year in league. Likely starter at offensive guard after making 15 starts last year.

Kansas City Chiefs - Bernard Pollard (S) - 4^th year in league, probable starter. Most hated non-Yankee in New England after ending Tom Brady's season last year. Had five tackles in preseason debut. Alex Magee (DT) - Rookie on defensive line rotation. Had four tackles in preseason debut. The chiefs lost to the Texans 16-10.

Miami Dolphins - Akin Ayodele (LB) - 8^th year in league. Starter 13 games with 75 tackles last season. Likely starter again. Ryan Baker (DT) - Undrafted free agent fighting for roster spot. Both Ayodele and Baker had one tackle Monday night in a 12-9 field goal kicking contest.

Minnesota Vikings - Ray Edwards (DE) - 4^th year in league. Likely starter after 15 starts and five sacks last season. Had tackle in preseason debut win over the Colts.

New England Patriots - Matt Light (LT) - 9^th year in league. Has won three Super Bowls and has started all but two games in his career. Will be protecting Tom Brady's blind side until both head to Canton most likely. Rob Ninkovich (DE) - 3^rd year in league. Has played in just 8 career games as he tries to return from serious knee injury. No stats in preseason debut.

New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees (QB) - 9^th year in league. Will be starter after making the Pro Bowl for third time and second time being named All-Pro. Reigning Offensive Player of the Year. Completed 6 of 9 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown in 17-7 win over Cincy.

New York Giants - No players on roster.

New York Jets - Dustin Keller (TE) - 3 catches for 52 yards in preseason debut. Likely starter after solid rookie season in 2008. Big things are expected from him this year.

Oakland Raiders - No players on roster.

Philadelphia Eagles - Eugene Bright (TE) - An interesting one, as Bright was a pretty average Defensive end at Purdue and never played tight end. Undrafted free agent trying to make roster. Had one catch for eight yards in preseason debut.

Pittsburgh Steelers - No players on roster.

San Diego Chargers - Shaun Phillips (LB) - 6^th year in league. Likely starter as one of San Diego's best linebackers. Had 2 tackles in first game. Nick Hardwick (OL) - 6^th year in league. Likely starter with 68 career starts at center and a Pro Bowl nod in 2006. Charles Davis (TE) - Has bounced around league (Giants, Panthers, Jaguars) trying to make a roster, but has yet to play in an official game. No stats in opener

San Francisco 49ers - Kory Sheets (RB) - Undrafted free agent trying to make a roster. Kory probably had the most beneficial weekend of anyone. Rushed for 51 yards on 10 carries and a long of 25 in win over Denver. Also saw main competition Thomas Clayton unfortunately tear his ACL and get released. Has solid chance to make roster as 3^rd down back/kick returner.

Seattle Seahawks - Craig Terrill (DT) - 6^th year in league. Is having a very Jeff Zgonina-like career so far. Will likely be in the rotation at defensive tackle and may start. Had no statistics in opener.

St. Louis Rams - No players on roster.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Niko Koutouvides (LB) - 6^th year in league. Fighting for roster spot after disappointing year in Denver last season. Had four tackles in preseason debut. Buc fans are excited to have him.

Tennessee Titans - Stanford Keglar (LB) - 2^nd year in league. Played in 13 games as a rookie last season. Leads the team in tackles with 11 through 2 games (The Titans played in the Hall of Fame game too). The Titans think he may be the steal of last year's draft, too. Mike Otto (OT) - 2^nd year in league officially. Has been on practice squad and has played in one official game.

Washington Redskins - No players on roster.

Transcript of Sean Payton's Minicamp Press Conference

Saintsational — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 23:03:28 -0000

Per the Times-Pic.

Opening Statement:

"The one player that wasn't here was Thomas Morstead, our punter. He was excused for a funeral and he'll be getting back tonight. It was our first morning of the minicamp and so far, so good. We just have a lot of work ahead of us."

How do you prepare for the looming four-game suspensions for Charles Grant and Will Smith?

"One of the things we'll do out here is to rotate the order of how these guys are getting reps. In minicamp here, with eight more OTAs, all of training camp - we have a lot of time to mix up the repetitions and we'll be mindful of that."

Are you comfortable with the personnel you have behind those guys heading into the season?

"Yes. Purposefully we've been able to go out and acquire some guys at that position and get some depth, some guys with experience. We'll be prepared."

Did Marques Colston have a setback or do you just decide to hold him out this morning?

"With him and Reggie (Bush) both, we're just gradually increasing their workload. Both of them are getting some work in after practice. They're at that stage where we just don't want them getting tangled up in a drill. We'll be smart and continue to increase their workload as we see fit. There hasn't been any setback."

Do you still have Reggie Bush and Lance Moore penciled in as your top punt returners?

"Obviously we're going to look at Reggie; we're going to look at Lance Moore; we're going to look at Skyler Green; we're going to look at Tracy Porter and Jason David. So if you look at five right now that are going to be getting some reps along with some of these younger guys, that's how it will start off."

So you're not shying away from having Bush and Moore back there?

"Not at all."

How has Darren Sharper fit in with the defense so far?

"So far pretty well. He obviously has a lot of experience and he's been here throughout the whole offseason as we've added and really installed the new defense. He's been involved with it just like everyone else. It's not like some of these new players coming in are behind because we're really looking at a new installation for everybody. He's been able to handle it from the beginning."

Is it the same for Jabari Greer?

"Yes, it's the same for Jabari and really quite honestly for all the veteran players that have been here."

What have you seen from Anthony Hargrove and Paul Spicer so far?

"Both of those players have played in the league and have experience. They're different types of players; Spicer is someone that we feel like is stout at the point of attack and plays the run well. Anthony Hargrove is someone that can get up the field and rush the passer. Their skill sets are a little different and yet they are at key positions for us, especially if we're looking at possibly losing some players to start the year."

When you bring those guys in, do they know about the possible suspensions for the other players?

"I think so. I think they're aware of it. The better question would be, 'Are we bringing those two players in if that looming suspension doesn't sit out there?' And the answer to that would be, probably yes."

It looked like Devery Henderson has improved on catching the ball cleanly. Have you seen that?

"I think that's accurate. He's taking some reps at 'X' right now, which is really the other side of the formation with Marques (Colston) not going full-speed yet. It's helpful when you can move him a little bit. Certainly he knows the 'Z' position, but outside of the specific position, he's catching it cleanly and playing with confidence and he's done a good job. He had a good morning practice today."

Is this the Jeremy Shockey that you wanted to get, the player we saw on the field today?

"It was our first practice and he's healthy, so you were able to see him move around better. But it's early and we'll see."

Is he as healthy right now as he has been since you traded for him?

"I think that's true. He came here off the injury in New York and then he had the sports hernia. There has been enough time between both of those injuries now to where if he's not 100 percent, he's getting back into a rhythm."

Has he been at the OTAs?

"We had four OTAs that he was excused from. I use that term although he doesn't have to be excused from them. There were four OTAs that he wasn't able to be at, and we're here at minicamp with eight more OTAs left."

What has been your early evaluation of having Tracy Porter back on the field?

"It's a big plus having him back. We felt like he was playing at a pretty high level when he got injured and he's certainly going to be in the mix at the corner position. We feel like he has a good skill set and understands the defense. He has good cover skills and range and it's a big plus."

How does Dan Morgan look right now?

"He's picking things up pretty quickly and he seems to be moving real well. His movement skills have been real impressive and that's encouraging."

This will be the fourth straight year of sellouts at the Superdome. What are your thoughts on that?

"It's a credit to our fan base. To some degree, the fan base has shifted a little bit after '06 and regionally you're seeing not only the local fans from New Orleans but more of the state, you're seeing Mississippi, you're seeing Florida, Alabama and that's all a positive thing, especially with the economy now. I think the fans are pretty smart in their decisions as to how they want to spend their money and it's a positive for the organization. It just keeps getting back to putting the right product on the field and certainly we're appreciative of it."

What happened to Darnell Dinkins and did Adrian Arrington hurt himself out there?

"Arrington is coming off a hamstring from the last OTA so we really didn't see him do much except for the walkthroughs. We feel like we'll have more of him here in the next two weeks. Dinkins and (Dan) Campbell were the two guys that got nicked up a little bit. Dinkins looked like he twisted his ankle and Campbell twisted his knee so we'll get those two guys examined. But Arrington had a hamstring from our last OTA practice."

Have you seen progress from Robert Meachem?

"Yes. He's healthy and he has a real good grasp of what we're doing. He's someone that has been involved the whole offseason and is playing with a lot more confidence."

There were a couple of skirmishes out there this morning. Does that just show the players are feisty and ready to compete?

"I think that's fairly common when you get together here and you start working against each other. The key is just being smart and understanding what time of the year we're at. We have a long way to go."

What was your reaction to Shockey's hospitalization? Did you talk to him?

"No, I didn't. I'm sure I'll have a chance to visit with him here. Really, outside of that, I know it happened on the weekend and out of town. What's important is that he's healthy and he gets back to what we're doing here and getting on the same page with what we're doing offensively and our quarterback. These repetitions for him - not only at the minicamp but at these next OTAs - are going to be important, especially coming off his injury."

Are you happy with his attitude throughout the offseason?

"This is the first offseason to my knowledge that he's been around and been working. I would speak first from a group standpoint and I say this at the team meeting last night, we have a chance to where we're over 35 players now that are over 100 percent of the workouts and that's probably double where we have been in the last two or three years. This is the first year where everyone has been here; in other words we haven't had a player holding out or not involved. There are various degrees of how much each player has been involved, but overall it has been our best offseason by far."

In the practices that we've seen it's looked like Dan Campbell has been catching the ball well and looks smooth out there. Is that what you've seen?

"He catches it well. I don't know about looking smooth, but he catches it well. He's someone I'm familiar with; obviously we had him in New York. He's a guy that gives you a presence in his blocking. He's strong at the point of attack in the run game, he can block defensive ends in the passing game, and he's functional as a receiver, which is important. If you look at his assets or his skill sets, it would start with his ability to block in the run and the pass. He made a real nice catch out here in the one drill."

How much catch-up will Malcolm Jenkins have to play when he finally gets back here?

"Fortunately, he has graduated and he's flying in tonight. He was able to get his exams done and he'll be in tonight and you guys will see him on the field tomorrow. That's pretty important. That gives us Saturday, it gives us Sunday and that gives us all these OTAs coming up, and he's already been at the rookie minicamp. I think the learning curve for him will be smaller than it would have been had he had to wait longer."

Did Mike Bell seem impressive to you out there?

"He has been doing well. He's done a good job. He still hasn't been here a full year but he knows what we're doing. He's big and he's a guy that is relatively young when you look at the age of a running back. He's someone that is in the mix and will have a lot of opportunities."

Considering Rob Ninkovich's ability to play defensive end, do you think this will be the most competitive battle you've had at long snapper here?

"One of the things that we've looked at with Rob is making sure that his focal point starts with being a snapper and then having the flexibility of being able to play on the defensive line. You're seeing him spend more and more time with the specialists than maybe in years past or when he was in Miami. You're always trying to develop that position and have depth at that position and have competition, and I think we have that right now. We'll see how that plays out."

Do you have him listed as a long snapper more than a defensive end now?

"I think that would be fair to say right now, long snapper first. With the depth at defensive end, it gives him the opportunity and the flexibility to go play on defense, but still that's the mindset as to how he's going to make the team."

Will you give that job to whoever performs best as a long snapper or does Ninkovich have an edge because he can do two things?

"We still have to look at the results at the position and make sure that whoever is our long snapper is someone that we have confidence in. Obviously it's an added bonus if a guy can play another position on the field because you're always looking to see how many snaps we can get these guys in when it comes to the game. That will factor in, but it still starts with snapping."

Saints 2009 Position Battles: Defensive End

Saintsational — Thu, 14 May 2009 11:00:13 -0000

Today we examine the last of the position groups on the defensive side of the ball: the defensive ends. Last years line was blamed for not getting enough pressure on the quarterback while having to deal with nagging injuries all season. With Gregg Williams now driving the bus, fans are expecting to see more pressure from the edge. But who will be invited to ride that bus?

A quick look at your New Orleans Saints defensive ends:

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Will Smith	6'3"	282	27	6
Charles Grant	6'3"	285	30	8
Bobby McCray	6'6"	260	27	6
Paul Spicer	6'4"	295	33	10
Josh Savage	6'4"	276	28	4
Jeff Charleston	6'4"	265	26	3
Rob Ninkovich	6'2"	255	25	3
Jermey Parnell	6'6"	278	22	R

Due to the large amount of money invested in both Will Smith and Charles Grant, making this team is a sure thing for these two. No need to even really discuss this matter. Whether or not they're worth it is another question altogether but hopefully they'll remain injury free and blossom under Gregg Williams' new system.

Bobby McCray was arguably the most productive defensive end on the Saints roster last season, leading the team in sacks with a total of six. McCray was a quarterback-seeking missile under Gibbs' vanilla defense so it will be fun to watch what happens now that he is in a blitz-happy scheme. With all that in mind, Bobby is a good bet to make the team for sure.

Free agent acquisition Paul Spicer was signed this off-season and should help add some depth on the line. The veteran may also slide to the inside if needed, making him that much more valuable. Regardless of where he plays, Spicer will make this team unless something goes horribly wrong.

The remaining players left battling it out for a spot will have to fight and claw their way onto the 2009 Saints roster. Jeff Charleston was the most productive of the bunch last season and actually contributed significantly. Josh Savage was also with the team in 2008 but was used very sparingly. Ninkovich never played a down while on the Saints practice squad last year and will be lucky to achieve the same feat for a second year in a row. Undrafted free agent rookie Jermy Parnell, though impressive in size, is doubtful to make the team. The good news for all four of these players is that if suspensions get handed down in the Starcaps case they have a good chance of seeing the field at least for four games.

The floor is now open. Will there be any surprises here when training camp opens? Can we expect more pressure this year from these players? Will Charles Grant and Will Smith earn their fat contracts this season?

Poll

Which defensive end will surprisingly make the team this year?

Josh Savage

35 votes

Jeff Charleston

210 votes

Rob Ninkovich

102 votes

Jermey Parnell

72 votes

None of the above

40 votes

459 votes | Poll has closed