SB Nation - Billy Bajema

Week 13 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:00:40 -0000

The theme for today's matchup review post, similar to the theme of recent 49er teams, is "what could have been." In 2006, the Niners beat the division-leading Seahawks to pull within 1 game of the division lead at 5-5. They had a pretty favorable stretch of upcoming games against the 4-6 Rams, 6-4 Saints, and 4-6 Packers, and we got all excited. Unfortunately, they proceeded to lose all 3 of those games, only to beat the Seahawks again in Week 15 to revive our hopes once more. What happens next? As the Seahawks are in the midst of losing to the 12-2 Chargers, the Niners lay an absolute egg against the 4-10 (!!!) Cardinals to kick us in the junk one more time for good measure.

Sound familiar? This season, the Niners have brought out their junk-kicking boots once again, with their wins coming when they're seemingly out of the playoff picture, and their losses coming when they're firmly within the picture frame. This Sunday's loss was, ala the Cardinals' game in 2006, the final for-good-measure display of their junk-kicking skills.

What does this have to do with the matchup review? Well, as you'll see, this was a game that the 49ers should have won easily. The loss defied more than just statistics; it defied logic altogether. Some matchup results ended up in perfect accordance with what they needed to accomplish, and yet they still lost. In other matchups, they turned stone-cold, lead-pipe advantages into performances befitting the Keystone Kops. All in all, if you want to understand the anatomy of a kick in the junk, this Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks helps explain why 49er teams of recent vintage have continually given us their best Sisyphus impression.

Ladies and gentlemen, grab your barf bags as I present this week's statistical matchup review alternately titled, How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Before the game, I displayed a chart showing that, without fail, the Seahawks' wins and losses through 11 games had a 1-to-1 dependency on their DEF DVOA for the game: above average = Seahawks win; below average = Seahawks loss. Well, wouldn't you know it, but the 49ers decided to play the role of bedside nurse once again, giving their opponent exactly what ails them. In the case of the SEA game, it turns out that the Niners lost despite SEA having a below-average Game DEF DVOA of 24.5%; their 3rd-worst Game DEF DVOA of the season!

So basically, the Seahawks DEF sucked just about as bad as they were supposed to suck (if not worse), and yet the 49ers couldn't do what every other team that's encountered said death-spiraling Seahawk DEF has done: win the damn game. What makes matters even worse - and more odds-defying - is that the Niners' had an above-average Game OFF DVOA of 9.5%; their 3rd-best Game OFF DVOA of the season! Oh, and by the way, just for kicks, they also had an above-average Game DEF DVOA of -8.1%. Tell most any NFL team that they're going to have one of their best days on OFF, and their 4-7 opponent, whose losses occur when they play bad DEF, is going to have one of their worst days on DEF, and that team is going to tell you that an ass-whooping is what they're about to dish out. Behold the (2006 and) 2009 49ers: not most any NFL team.

After the jump, I'll make you reach for the Pepto...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Here's another case of the odds-defying game result. Just to remind you, the first part of the equation in this matchup had to do with the 49ers's DEF having a massive advantage over the Seahawks' OFF in passing situations on 2nd down. The second part was that, given this advantage, the Niners' DEF needed to constantly put SEA's OFF in such situations by holding them to 3 yards or less on 1st down.

Interesting stat #1: SEA had 3 successful plays out of 11 passing plays on 2nd & long (27.3%); as compared to a 50% success rate on 2nd & long runs. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #2: When the Niners' DEF stopped SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, TD, Half, Punt, Punt, Punt. 49ers exploit advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #3: On the lone TD drive in the previous list, the 49ers' DEF gave up 2 of the Seahawks' 3 successful 2nd-down passing plays in the entire game. 49ers blow advantage? Check. Interesting stat #4: When the Niners' DEF didn't stop SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with TD, Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Punt, FG. 49ers blow advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #5: Before Arnaz Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 4 for 4 (i.e., a perfect 100% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #6: After Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 13 for 25 (i.e., a lackluster 52% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. Battle blows DEF's advantage? Check.

So, my point here is that the matchup played out exactly as expected. When Matt Hasselbeck and company passed the ball on 2nd & long, it worked in the 49ers' favor. Otherwise, it didn't. When the Niners' DEF started a drive by putting SEA into 2nd & long, it ultimately worked in the 49ers' favor on the drive. Otherwise, it didn't. When the coaching staff wasn't calling ridiculous special teams plays, and pinning their hopes on the tandem of "Human Roster Exemption" and "Worst WR-Signing of 2009," it worked in the Niner DEF's favor. Otherwise, it didn't.

The fact of the matter is, however, that this matchup worked out in the 49ers' favor far more than it didn't, and yet, they still lost the game. Why? How about 3 matchup-defying epic fails: a 15-yard gain on 2nd & 8, a 25-yard gain on 2nd & 7, and a 32-yard gain on 1st & 10. The first 2 came on SEA's 2nd TD drive (if you want to call the 1st one "a drive"), and the third came on SEA's final game-winning drive. Interesting stat #7: 3 epic matchup fails = 49ers loss.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Do I really have to say much about this one? The Niners' DEF had a 167.9% (!!!) DVOA advantage if/when SEA threw red zone passes, and was coming off a game in which the dropped the hammer on the Jaguars' similarly disadvantaged OFF in this exact game situation. So much for that, I guess: Both of SEA's TDs came on red zone passes. Nice job, guys. Revised interesting stat # 7: 5 epic fails = 49ers loss.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

Remember how, in last week's matchup review, I lauded the 49ers' coaching staff for exploiting Frank Gore's advantage against JAX's DEF in the passing game? Remember how I mentioned that he was the target for 25% of Alex Smith's passes in the JAX game, and how Smith threw 6 of his first 9 passes to Gore? After looking at the SEA-game play-by-play, they're resigned to remain exactly that: memories.

Against the Seahawks, Gore was the target of a Smith pass only 7 times, or only 15.5% of Smith's 45-pass total. What's worse is that, after being the target of Smith's 3rd pass of the game, Gore did not have a ball thrown his way for 14 straight passes! A certain pearl of 1980s pop culture comes to mind here: Hello? McFly?

This one is definitely on the coaches. How do you go into a game against the 26th-ranked pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw Gore the ball like he's Roger Craig, but then go into the following game against the #27 pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw him the ball like he's Billy Bajema? It makes absolutely no sense to me. The worst part is that 4 of Gore's 5 catches ended up being successful plays for the Niners' OFF. Hello? McFly? Re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 1 coaching fail = 49ers loss.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Enough of the epic failing; let's go back to the "lose despite epic success" theme. I don't need to give you the play-by-play for you to know that the Niners's OFF shot, roasted, and ate the Seahawks DEF during the 1st quarter. If not for one of the worst non-calls I've ever seen, the Niners would have been up 14-0 only 8:35 into the game. And, to me, 14-0 is meaningfully different than 7-0. To an NFL team, being down by 7 in the 1st quarter means "only one score away." But, to a 4-7 NFL team like the Seahawks, only 2 weeks removed from receiving a 35-9 beatdown at the hands of the Vikings, being down by 14 midway through the 1st quarter means "I can't wait to clean out my locker and get the hell out of here."

I don't care what anyone says, but the fact that the 49ers' 1st-quarter dominance on offense didn't end up helping them win the game is something you can pin squarely on the backs of the inept officiating tandem that saw no evil on that play. Of course, were you at all surprised that (non-)call went the other way? Remember, the alternate title of this movie is How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion. Getting that call isn't in the script.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...One more epic coaching fail for you guys before I'm done. Before the game, I mentioned how SEA's DEF is 6th-worst in the NFL when it comes to efficiency on plays when the opposing OFF lines up in shotgun. As was the case in the Jags game, the Niners needed more shotgun. It turns out they used even more shotgun OFF against SEA (62.1% of all plays) than they did against JAX (55.7%). The coaches are fine so far.

Where the epic coaching fail begins is related to something I've been talking about for weeks: the benefit of shotgun to the running game. Against the Seahawks, the 49ers' OFF had a 44.4% play success rate from the shotgun formation, and a 36.4% play success rate when Smith lined up under center; so, yeah, we know already, shotgun is more efficient overall.

The interesting things about the SEA game are (a) the pass OFF was slightly more efficient under center (50.0%) than they were in shotgun (46.9% success rate), and (b) the run OFF was a pathetic 0 for 7 (success rate = 0.0%) on running plays in non-shotgun formations!!!

Why? Hmm. Might the former have something to do with the fact that 7 of Gore's 9 carries were on non-shotgun plays? Might somebody be telegraphing their passing plays? Might the entire world know that, when the 49ers line up in shotgun, they're going to pass the ball? Might it be a little less difficult to defend the pass when a team knows it's coming? Hmm. And might the latter have something to do with the fact that, against SEA, the Niners were 6 times as likely to run the ball when under center than when in shotgun? Or perhaps it has something to do with the fact that, except for one drive in which they mysteriously exhumed their Gore-up-the-middle-three-times-then-punt OFF, all of Gore's runs came on 1st down? Hmm.

Hopefully, you're getting my point for the 100th time. One of the main reasons I cited for shotgun being useful for the 49ers and their inept OL is that it allows an OFF to disguise their play-calls. If you run out of shotgun efficiently, it will be nearly impossible for the DEF to know when you're going to run because the norm for NFL DEF's is to defend pass first against shotgun. DEFs defending pass first = easier blocking for the OL on running plays.

So, one of the main benefits of shotgun is disguise. But here we have a game in which the coaching staff (read Jimmy Raye) somehow was able to force his telegraphing nature into an offense specifically designed to avoid telegraphing. Want to know what one SEA defensive coach said to the others? It goes like this: "Hey guys, when Smith is in shotgun, they're passing. But if he's under center on 1st down, they're running." Amazing. When a nerdy, armchair DC like me can figure this out, it means that the Niners' OC (and the rest of the offensive coaches) committed an epic fail.

Re-re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 2 coaching fails = 49ers loss.

BOTTOM LINE

Aside from specific epic fails, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Seahawks:

They did something no other team had done against SEA this season: Lose despite their OFF utterly dominating SEA's DEF.
Battle's fumble gave SEA's OFF life after the Niners' DEF was utterly dominating them on 1st down.
A blown PI call nullified the Niner OFF's utter domination of SEA's DEF in the 1st quarter.
Total matchup meltdown in red zone pass DEF, the initial catalyst of which was Battle's fumble putting the pass DEF in a position to fail.
Poor gameplanning by the offensive coaches rendered Gore relatively nonexistent in the passing game.
Poor "self-scouting" by the offensive coaches rendered the 49ers' run and pass tendencies transparent, which thereby nullified their massive shotgun advantage.

The first sentence of my SF/SEA matchup preview was, "Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort." It turns out I was exactly right from a matchup perspective: losing these matchups was a total team effort. Offensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., Gore fumble), defensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., red zone pass DEF fails), and a special teams player (who should be taking the next "special" bus out of town) even found a way to contribute to non-ST matchup fails - he's that talented! Throw on top of that the contribution of offensive coaches, and you have the anatomy of a "what could have been" loss.

Thanks for another kick in the junk, guys.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON why the 49ers repeatedly lose games they should win?

The good health fairy visits the Rams: Random Ramsdom, 8/25

VanRam — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 12:15:24 -0000

I don't know if the St. Louis Rams are charmed or cursed. Injuries still dog them, but they're mostly relatively minor bumps and bruises (though I can attest that broken pinkie hurts like a mutha). The most recent example is veteran DE Leonard Little, who hurt his knee yesterday. He was back in action in the afternoon. The Rams need Leonard because they've got a lot of unknowns on the defensive line.

Injured DT Adam Carriker took reps with the team, putting his return to action in the very soon column, possibly against the Bengals on Thursday night. WR Donnie Avery is already in full pads, running full speed. His return won't be far behind.

Carriker may be the first starter unseated by a young up and comer. Spagnuolo says that when Carriker does return, he'll have to battle DT Gary Gibson. Good for Spags. Not guaranteeing Carriker's starting job might be just the extra motivation he needs to get it together. From what we saw out of the defense last week, someone needs to step up.

Boller says he's getting better. We'll see whether that's true or not this week.

Other items of interest...

St. Louis Rams' Billy Bajema surprises at tight end
Bengals Quarterback Palmer Could Sit Vs. Rams Due To Ankle Sprain
Steven Jackson shares his feelings on two back systems. Hint: he doesn't like them.
The Bengals and Andre Smith saga continues. Didn't see this coming, huh?
Rams Herd looks at the secondary.
Why Rams Gab is watching Laurent Robinson.

Where things stand: A mid-August assessment of the Rams offense

VanRam — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 16:14:02 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

St. Louis Rams wide receiver Laurent Robinson, has been a pleasant surprise for the Rams so far.

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The St. Louis Rams have had, so far, an up and down preseason. The practices at Rams Park kicked off the new era. They were intense, physical, and exciting to see. Each session bolstered fan hopes for an improved Rams team after a long time in the wilderness. Summing up the difference between this year's camp and those from previous seasons, the PD has the most apt anecdote:

"Get low and stick 'em!"

It was the players' tribute to one of those fans, Jerry Harrison — aka Coach, aka Superfan. "Get low and stick 'em!" has been Harrison's trademark chant during training camp practices for more than a decade. (Except for the three years he was muzzled by Scott Linehan, that is.)

Scott Linehan and the Rams former top brass did much to silence fans over the years, mostly by turning out a sub-par product, but the fact that they actually ordered one of the most enthusiastic fans - at a time when paper bags were widely distributed prior to home games - to be silenced say all you need to know about the changes at Rams Park.

A win over the New York Jets to open the preseason kept the fires of interest burning, though a few instances of what happened on the field (like Bulger getting sacked three times) evoked an eerie deja vu and reminded us all that dominance was still down the road a bit.

News of injured starters made for some unsettling days between the Rams' first two preseason games. Then, with last Friday's loss to the Falcons, the sound of teeth gnashing and nail biting started drowning out the excitement, and the legacies of seasons past look harder to shake than they should be.

Take a deep breath, count the bumps on that little string of beans, and repeat after me: "It's still preseason. Om. It's still preseason. Om." Before the Rams play their third preseason game this Thursday against the Cincinnati Bengals, it's worth taking a look at where things stand and what questions still need to be answered. Let's start with the offense:

We'll start with the big questions and then go unit by unit with a look at their progress and work remaining.

Will Bulger be able to play like a starter again? So far, the beleaguered Bulger hasn't really had much time to answer the question that's dogged him every since he signed a big new contract before the start of the 2007 season. Throughout camp he has demonstrated the accuracy that made him famous and a solid grasp of the playbook. In limited playing time against the Jets, he was sharp, going 4-for-4. He made a couple of throws with rushers in his face, and the three sacks didn't seem to faze him. On just one sack did it look like he held the ball too long. He connected with his receivers, despite the #1 Donnie Avery being sidelined since the August 7 scrimmage. We need to see more sync with Steven Jackson, who hasn't played much at all in the preseason. Bulger will miss this week's game against the Bengals; he might miss the next one against the Chiefs too. Though he should be back for the season opener against Seattle. Obviously, he'd be better off having more practice time, but it doesn't look like Bulger will be the issue holding the offense back.

Can Steven Jackson stay healthy and become an elite, do-it-all back? Jackson certainly came to camp in the best physical shape of his life, but we haven't seen much from him in preseason play. If he has the holes, we know he can run. We also know he can catch passes, but it still would be nice to see a little bit more of that in the new offense. Though it didn't seem like it would be an issue when camp started, the big question surrounding Jackson now is whether or not he's going to get the running lanes he needs.

Will the offensive line be improved? That seemed like a sure thing just a month ago, with the addition of C Jason Brown, drafting Jason Smith and getting younger and tougher across the line. Against the Falcons, a team that featured a notably porous run defense, the Rams had terrible run blocking and the line has again opened itself up to questioning. Part of the problem was that Jason Smith just wasn't ready. Contradicting camp reports (and maybe offering some hope that it was just a matter of first exposure to NFL starters) Smith blocked decently against the pass rush but poorly for the run. He has some time to establish himself and learn the ropes. On the other side of the line Barron has looked solid. In the middle, I don't know what I was expecting, but I somehow expected the combo of Brown, Incognito and Bell to look a little sharper than they have. Bell's hurt, again, and his replacement, Mark Setterstrom, did just fine. Curiously enough, the Rams never ran up the middle with Steven Jackson against the Falcons. Granted, he was only in for one series, but that seems unusual. Gado ran up the middle to no avail. Some of that is the steep drop-off between Jackson and Gado, but the linemen had trouble getting to the second level against the Falcons stacked box, leaving little running room for Gado to exploit. That's a good lead-in to the next question that faced the Rams when preseason began...

Who will backup Steven Jackson? The jury's still out on that one. Sakmon Gado looked good against the Jets, but played mostly against guys battling for a roster spot, an easy matchup for a guy who has had success at the NFL level. Against the Falcons' first team Gado got nado. I want to officialy go on the record as stating that Gado is a camp/preseason phenomenon, nothing more. Kenneth Darby looked to have a solid grasp on the #2 job heading into the preseason opener, but struggles in pass protection and running the ball pushed him back down the depth chart. Antonio Pittman had nice night in relief of Steven Jackson against New York, faring a little better than his rivals against the Falcons. Of course, all the Rams runners struggled against the Falcons. Right now, Pittman looks like he might be the lead horse for the second spot. I wouldn't discount Chris Ogbonnaya yet either. He has shown good ball control (though limited reps) and can catch passes, which theoretically makes him a good fit in this offense. I'd like to see what he can do against NFL starters.

Will inexperience among the Rams wide receivers hurt the team? Of all the questions we figured to still be trying to answer midway through the preseason, this topped the list. Turns out, the receivers look pretty solid Laurent Robinson looks every bit like a starter, and when Avery gets back the two should be a nice 1-2 pairing. Keenan Burton has looked sharp in limited action. The tight ends have done well in passing game too, even blocking TE Billy Bajema has more than 50 yards on 4 catches. Playing with backup QBs makes this a little tougher to evaluate.

Now the units...

Quarterback - We covered Bulger above. After what he's endured in recent seasons, heightened risk of injury will always be there, hanging over Bulger. The problem with that as things stand now is what we've seen from his backup, Kyle Boller. Boller was inaccurate and made questionable decisions in the pocket, despite having the kind of time Marc Bulger would have killed for. Those are the two main points of criticism that have always followed Boller. In all honest, it might be nice to see what Null and Berlin can do with the first team.

Running back - Spagnuolo and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur must have supreme confidence in Jackson, because they're being really, really stingy with him in preseason play. Call it the Ladainian Tomlinson approach to preseason play. Finding a backup and consistent blocking is still the main story here.

Wide receiver - Robinson and Avery look like a very competent combo for the Rams starters. Keenan Burton has looked sharp too. Sean Walker and Derrek Stanley have looked alright with the second team. Another stand out performer here would finally put questions about this unit to rest.

Tight end - McMichael and Bulger looked to have a mind meld going in the Jets game, but Boller's accuracy left him catchless last week. It's fair to ask at this point mow much speed he has left. Fells was widely expected to grab the third spot on the depth chart, and that still seems likely. He made some noise with the first team against the Falcons. Bajema's been the most pleasant surprise. The blocking specialist is the second leading receiver on the Rams right now. Klopfenstein has done nothing to justify his spot on the roster.

Offensive line - Discussed above in more detail. I just need to see some consistency from this unit to rest easier. Smith hurt his cause last week, giving Goldberg a good chance to start the season on the right side. The first rounder will get better; he has the talent and will to do so. The backups look good.

Fullback - Mike Karney missed the preseason opener. The poor run blocking against the Falcons didn't give him much of a chance to clear lanes ahead of the runner. Need to see more here. Ditto for converted Jerome Johnson, a converted linebacker with nice size to play FB.

We'll run down the defense next.

Rams tight ends looking for big night against the Falcons

VanRam — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:20:37 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Will St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, right, and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur call for more passes to the tight ends against the Falcons this week?

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St. Louis Rams tight ends didn't see many passes come their way last week against the Jets. That came as a surprise for a West Coast offense, that feeds the ball to TEs on routes and check downs.

In last week's game, QB Marc Bulger connected with starter Randy McMichael for a 10 and a 15-yards pass. Blocking TE Billy Bajema had a 9-yard catch, Eric Butler had a 4-yarder, and Joe Klopfenstein had an incomplete on the play where QB Brock Berlin was injured. Don't read too much into what seems like a forgotten night for TEs. The Rams stuck to a pretty basic playbook, running on 29 of 56 offensive snaps, and the Jets impressive group of starting LBs are a tough matchup. I was a little surprised we didn't Daniel Fells, since he's the lead horse in the race for the third TE spot on the roster.

All of that may change against Atlanta this week. The coaches will probably want to see a little more of the playbook and Atlanta presents a favorable matchup for tight ends. Last season, the Falcons defense posted a 24.7% DVOA against TEs, 28th in the league. Opposing TEs caught an average of 6.7 passes per game (only #1 WRs caught more) for an average of 54.1 yards per games.

That's not likely to be improved this season. Second year MLB Curtis Lofton is their strongest LB in coverage; according to Football Outsiders play charting results, Lofton was successful against 67% of the 15 passes thrown at him. Outside LB Cory Wire, who came on the field against the pass last season successfully defended 51% of the balls thrown his way. New addition Mike Peterson, with Jacksonville in '08, had a 39% success rate and opponents gained an average of 6.8 yards on passes targeting him. At SS, the Falcons have Mizzou's William Moore, who was inconsistent as a senior. Starting FS Eric Coleman had a 45% success rate against the pass.

Last season, when the Rams nearly beat the Falcons in a week 17 upset, the tight ends were quiet, only Klopfenstein had a catch, for 29 yards, on one of Bulger's 19 completed passes. If Klopfenstein can do it... Of course, that game was all about Steven Jackson who rushed for 161 yards on 30 carries (to get his fourth 1,000 yard season) and caught 4 passes for 54 yards. Hmm, think we could see something like that again this week?

And, yes, I realize the weird connection discussing TE play for a team that added Tony Gonzalez this spring. That's a whole 'nother matchup, and I bet we'll cover it in a subsequent post.

For the Rams tight ends, this is a good week to get some action, especially with all three backup QBs getting all the playing time. Remember, Boller has experience connecting with a TE from his days tossing balls to Todd Heap in Baltimore. Expect to see McMichael build on his game last week while Fells and Klop battle it out for the third spot and Eric Butler will want to put his name in the mix too. In practice, the coaches seem to be using Bajema to catch passes more than I thought. See if that trend continues this week.

Three questions for the Rams vs. the Jets: #1 Watching the linebackers

VanRam — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:08:30 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Rams quarterback Marc Bulger has his work cut out for him against a tough group of Jets linebackers. Can his line keep him on his feet? Can he make accurate passes like the old Bulger?

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Figuring out what to watch for in a preseason game, beyond the usual position battles, is always kind of tough since you're going to see around 80 players for each team on the field throughout all four quarters of play. It's always the bottom fourth of the roster always ends up looking great on the stat sheet too, or so it seems. Anyway, all that aside, I have three big questions on my mind as I watch the St. Louis Rams take on the New York Jets tomorrow night. The first question is:

How well do the Rams play against the Jets elite group of linebackers

Sure, Kris Jenkins will sit this one out and that helps both the run and pass protection immensely as Jenkins is a one man wrecking crew capable of destroying pockets and stuffing runners with regularity. Jenkins or not, the Jets have an impressive group of linebackers with Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas on the outside and David Harris and Bart Scott on the inside. That won't exactly make running easy, at least not for the first quarter or so that those guys play. Alex Barron and the other Rams tackles face a tall order keeping Bulger on his feet against those OLBs.

Stating the obvious, the offensive line and other blockers brought in this year, like FB Mike Karney and TE Billy Bajema, will have to be sharp. Besides that, this is a good early test for the West Coast offense. The Jets will be looking for the Rams to test their offensive line and the Steven Jackson-oriented offense. This gives Pat Shurmur a great way to start using the passing play pages of his West Coast offense, using those short, quick drops from the QB to makes throws to TEs and WRs behind the defensive front. The quick part of this will be key too, since Rex Ryan runs an aggressive defense that won't sit idle once the snap is made.

Players to keep an eye on (aside from, you know, everyone):

Keenan Burton - He's the man of hour with Avery on the sidelines. Touted for his physical style of play and ability to make catches in the crowded middle, he'll get a chance to shine against some great defenders.

Marc Bulger - How well does he know the playbook? Bulger and his receivers will have to work quick to make passes against the Jets rush and keep the field open for Steven Jackson.

Alex Barron - Is he ready for the blindside? We'll know soon enough because the Jets will be sending some fearsome OLBs against the passer.

Daniel Fells and the other TEs - These guys are going to matched up against the Jets linebacker all night, and they'll be expected to make catches. Fells is out for the team's third TE roster spot. He's looked good in the offseason after impressing down the stretch last year.

I'll post the other two questions after lunch.

Predicting the St. Louis Rams final roster: offense

VanRam — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:59:29 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Will the St. Louis Rams fifth round draft pick WR Brooks Foster be on the roster when the season starts? (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Slowly but surely, camp inches closer. It's one of the more memorable starts to the Rams season in a long, long time. Obviously, camp and the promise of football that counts right around the corner is always exciting. Anyone else remember they felt in August the last time we started a new era of Rams football, when Linehan took the reigns? Without being a total homer, I feel much different this time, not only has the coaching staff turned over, but the entire front office has turned over too, a much needed development as the stench of rot was starting to whifting upwards from the suites at Rams Park. One thing I like about where the Rams sit right now, as I've siad before, is the coherent vision for putting together a winning team, emphasis on winning.

With that, I thought it would be a good time to take an early stab at predicting what the roster will look like once camp ends and the season starts. Today, let's start with the offense.

Rather than just rattle off my predictions for each position, I'm going to list players in the order I think they'll appear on the depth chart, with notes where necessary.

QB: Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Keith Null
I think the coaching staff likes Null, and sees him as a fit in the new offense. Fear not Brock Berlin fans, he'll find work elsewhere.

RB: Steven Jackson, Kenneth Darby, Chris Ogbonnaya
I'm not sure that the team won't carry four running backs, depending on the additional duties (i.e. KR, etc.) they'll ask of the players. Also, don't be surprised if they pick someone off the street when roster cuts start happening late in the summer. Finally, I went with Ogbonnaya over Pittman, because I never got the feeling from spring camp reports that the new regime was too high on Pittman.

WR: Donnie Avery, Kennan Burton, Laurent Robinson, Tim Carter, Derek Stanley, Brooks Foster
This one gets really tough to predict after Robinson, and though I'm sick of hearing about it, I understand why people have made this position the official Rams storyline of the offseason. I think Travis Brown or Horace Grant could easily push Foster to the practice squad, depending on how they use their size - both measure 6'3" - in camp this summer. Again, though the front office and coaches deny the likelihood of it happening, don't be surprised if there's a last minute addition to this list, especially if a younger player with experience in this kind of offense gets das boot.

FB: Mike Karney

TE: Randy McMichael, Daniel Fells, Billy Bajema
At this point, does anyone really expect Joe Klopfenstein to beat out Fells?

RT: Jason Smith

RG: Richie Incognito

C: Jason Brown

LG: Jacob Bell

LT: Alex Barron

OL (backup): Adam Goldberg, John Greco, Mark Setterstrom, Phil Trautwein, Tim Mattran
This is a tough one to call too, after Stetterstrom. An injury to a starter would likely push another starter to a different position. Goldberg is the primary guy to replace an OT, and Greco or Setterstrom are equally cabable at filling in for a G. However, after Goldberg, there is no tackle on the list, unless the Rams would go to Greco, who was an OT in college. I put Trautwein on this list for that reason. The position I really wonder about is center. What happens if Jason Brown can't play a game? I'd probably slide Incognito over, since he has experience at the position as well as good size and the team has solid guys to step into the hole at RG if Cogs slides over to the middle. Behind Brown, the Rams have two true centers on the roster right now, Tim Mattran and Daniel Sanders, both undrafted free agents. I'm deferring to Mattran for my list, because scouting reports show an intelligent player with a nasty demeanor and a physical style of play. Of course, Setterstrom was taking snaps last year prior to camp, and there have been reports of Greco doing the same this year. Don't be surprised if another undrafted free agent like Roger Allen or Ray Feinga sneak onto the list. You can count on some OLs being on the practice squad too.

Alright, there it is, subject to much debate. Who's missing? Who doesn't belong on this list?

How Jason Smith spent his summer vacation: Random Ramsdom, 7/8

VanRam — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:59:20 -0000

Yum, some randomness to keep you occupied during the afternoon.

Fox Sports.com's Pete Schrager takes a look at the NFC West today, with five questions for the division. Naturally, he asks about the Rams wide receivers. Yada, yada, yada. This has officially become the storyline for a team all but forgotten by the national media. Making this version of the tired old tale even better is the insinuation that the Rams will miss Drew Bennett and Dante Hall at receiver. Um, did anyone else see how those guys played since coming to the Rams? Sure, we'll all miss Holt and Bruce, but I'll take young and hungry over decreptid and declining any day. Yes, teh receivers are young and unknown, we get it. There's nothing left to beat on this dead horse.

If you're in Waco next week, you might head over to the Chamber of Commerce which is throwing a send-off party for Baylor OT and Rams first round draft pick Jason Smith.

Speaking of Smith, Mike Tomlin's talk at the rookie symposium about winning the Super Bowl had more of an effect on Smith the rest of the scared straight talk...and he won't be strung out on cocaine anytime soon. That's good news for Rams fans.

More Smith...Ross Tucker at SI.com speculates that part of the reason for the Rams starting Jason Smith on the right side is to ease him into facing off against powerful, experienced pass rushers, thus keeping him from losing his confidence. I think it's more about maximizing potential for both Barron and Smith. There's reason to believe the experienced Barron can play LT, and there's confidence that the new coaches can clean up his game, i.e. penalties. With Smith, they have a guy that has skills in both pass and run blocking sandwiched between the top guard, Incognito, and a blocking TE in Billy Bajema. Of course, you'll also remember that head coach Steve Spagnuolo has said that he wants both players to be able to play both OT positions, noting that nothing was set in stone this far out from the start of the season.

Check out the all-decade NFC West team from Mike Sando. A number of former Rams on the list, including the usual suspects: Holt, Bruce, Warner and Pace, along with Adam Timmerman at G (it's little wonder that the last season the Rams offense was decent was Timmerman's last season, 2006), Leonard Little DE, and K Josh Brown.

NFC West Roundtable: Tight End

John Morgan — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 20:26:32 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

This picture has nothing to to with John Carlson, but look! Novelty!

Browse more photos »

In which I tap into my inner Robert and gush about John Carlson.

Seattle Seahawks
Blogger: John Morgan

Combining age, health, production, support skills and cost it’s tempting to award Seattle and "A"— ah hell I’ll do it. Why is John Carlson and truly just John Carlson worth an "A"?

He’s 25 (as of May 12) at a position that tends to decline after age 29. That means he has more productive seasons ahead of him than almost any other tight end of his capability.

He was healthy his rookie season and has no outstanding health concerns.

As part of a totally failed pass offense that lacked weapons of any kind before Deion Branch’s late season resurgence, Carlson was not only productive, catching 55 passes for 627 yards and five touchdowns, but important, Seattle’s leading receiver by receptions, yards, touchdowns, and efficient. It’s the efficiency that’s so remarkable. On an offense that couldn’t produce, Carlson did. Passes targeting Carlson were worth 143 DYAR, 9th best among all tight ends. He produced with three different quarterbacks, one named Charlie Frye. He produced when NFL teams adjusted to the Seahawks’ only weapon, assigning safeties to stop him and linebackers to bracket him. He produced like a top veteran at a position that’s famously tough on rookies.

Carlson isn’t a great pass blocker, but he’s developing. He’s already a pretty good run blocker and relative to his more-slot-receiver-than-tight-

end contemporaries, an excellent run blocker. He’s a hard worker with a pronounced competitive streak. He’ll work and he’ll improve.

Despite all that, he’s not yet as on-field valuable as the truly elite at his position: Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley, but he has a substantial off-field advantage. Carlson cost Seattle $770,000 against the cap in 2008. His four-year contract is worth only $4.52 million. That means he will cost Seattle less in four years than Gonzalez or Winslow cost in 2008, and has less remaining through 2011 than Vernon Davis will make in 2009 alone.

So it’s a qualified "A", yes, and behind Carlson is only a blocking tight end, John Owens, potential, Cameron Morrah, and busted potential, Joe Newton, but Carlson, like Heath Miller in 2008, Brandon Jacobs in 2007 and Bob Sanders in 2006, is the kind of low cost/high value talent that defines "Championship Caliber".

Grade: A

San Francisco 49ers
Blogger: Fooch

The 49ers tight ends have created great frustration for 49ers fans for much of this decade. Lately, this frustration has come in the form of Vernon Davis. Davis is a physically gifted athlete. There are few athletes in the NFL that combine his speed and size. Of course, few athletes share his ability to talk smack while not producing at the level you'd expect from said talk.

A lot of fans have written off Vernon Davis as a loudmouth, over-hyped workout warrior. I can understand this viewpoint, but I remain convinced that Davis is a unique weapon that is essential for the 49ers future success. Although Davis has great speed and size, he often struggles to make plays on deeper routes. I remain convinced that he can be most effective in plays where the QB gets the ball in his hands as soon after the snap as possible. This is a man you can line up anywhere on the field, from TE to WR to RB and utilize his speed and size to make plays. When he's used in swing passes, screens or even reverses, he has made things happen.

I gave the 49ers a C in large part because Vernon Davis has at times been able to capitalize on the mountain of potential. In 2007, his second season, Davis finished 4th among NFC tight ends in receptions and sixth in yards. However, more than that is his blocking ability. He's pointed to as one of the best blocking tight ends in the game and he's actually said he felt he could be a Pro Bowl offensive tackle if he put on some weight. And while, those outside the 49ers flock might write that off as continued smack talk, I can tell you he's probably correct.

This past season saw him held back to block significantly more than his first two seasons in part because of the Martz offense's proclivity to give up sacks. Since the hiring of Jimmy Raye, the talk has been of using Davis in a more traditional receiving tight end role. Raye worked extensively with Tony Gonzalez in Kansas City and so it will be interesting to see how he utilizes Davis in 2009. I can guarantee you that at least Davis's receiving numbers will go up across the board. If the 49ers can properly utilize his rare physical gifts, he will be a very solid threat on offense.

The primary backup to Davis has been Delanie Walker. Walker is a wide receiver converted to tight end. He's got some solid hands, but has never quite reached the next level outside of the preseason. Aside from having a cult following, Walker's biggest claim to fame is that he's one of the few (if only) tight ends utilized on kick returns. Allen Rossum is the 49ers primary return man, but when he went down with an injury, Walker got a lot of time as a kick returner. Although injury forced it, Walker has a good deal of speed for a tight end and thus was not the worst choice in the world. However, in terms of the offense, his blocking is limited and thus he does not get as much of an opportunity as he might otherwise see.

The 49ers drafted Bear Pascoe out of Fresno State in the sixth round this year to replace blocking tight end Billy Bajema. It didn't take long for the cowboy (he actually participates in rodeos!) to gain a big fan following among 49ers fans. As a sixth round pick there's certainly a reason he was passed on by so many teams. As the replacement for Bajema, I'd imagine his primary task this year will be in the run game. However, he might turn into an upgrade over Bajema in the receiving game. Bajema had two receptions last season, which was two more than the previous two seasons combined. When Bajema was on the field, it was safe to cheat off him as a defender. Bear appeared to be a solid receiver at Fresno State, so hopefully he can keep defenders a little more honest.

Turf Show Times
Blogger: VanRam

With the coaching situation and the offense finally looking like they'll have some much needed stability, the Rams are counting on Randy McMichael to regain 60+ reception ability this season. He was sorely missed last season, leaving in week four with a broken leg. In the seasons prior to that, he was utilized more as a blocker - an area where he's "good enough" - to help compensate for the sorry state of the offensive line. He's also, officially, the team's most experienced receiver, revealing just how much the team will be counting on him. The new West Coast play book will have plenty of seam routes for McMichael and used to create mismatches in the middle on plays that use the speedy receivers like Donnie Avery to stretch the field and keep safeties honest. We know McMichael has the ability to be a useful 60 reception guy, but, needless to say, he has to stay healthy, something you can't take for granted with a TE entering his age-30 year. He is now practicing at full speed, with no limitations, but the hitting has yet to begin.

If McMichael does succumb to injury, the next receiving TE on the Rams depth chart is the 6'4" 270 lbs Cal-Davis product Daniel Fells, a mid-season pick up from the Tampa Bay practice squad. Fells flashed some potential during the 2008 season, but has really impressed with his hands in practice. Fells still has to answer charges that he doesn't play physical enough. His spot is by no means guaranteed, but he does seem to have leaped over 2006 second round pick Joe Klopfenstein, a fan icon for lost draft picks and a guy who probably won't be on the team come September.

Third on the depth chart at TE is blocking specialist Billy Bajema, signed away from the 49ers as a free agent this spring to be younger version of last year's free agent blocking TE Anthony Becht...who's now with the Cardinals in what surely must be the league's most incestuous division for tight ends.

I'm giving this unit a B. We know that McMichael is capable of being among the best of that group of TEs just below the elite guys that even the novices in your fantasy league know of. With an improved offensive line he'll get to do what he does best more often, while the other guys fill the roles.

Arizona Cardinals
Blogger: cgolden

After struggling to find an adequate and healthy starter last year, the Cardinals seem to be taking the Jon Gruden QB approach, with their tight ends this off season. During last season four different players started multiple games at tight end for the Cardinals, Ben Patrick, Leonard Pope, Jerame Tuman and Stephen Spach. If you could summarize the talent at tight end last season in one sentance, it would be that the team signed a guy off the streets in October who became far and away the best guy on the depth chart in less than three weeks. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt, a former tight end himself, brought in two more tight ends this off season although surprisingly they didn't select one in the draft.

The current depth chart is without a star but there's more than a handful of warm bodies. Stephen Spach would have to enter camp as the early favorite to win the starting job, if he's fully healed from a torn ACL in the playoff game against the Panthers. Spach was signed mid-season and almost instantly shot to the top of the depth chart thanks to injuries and his steady play. He's not a great blocker or a great receiver but he does both adequetely, which is more than anyone else could say last year. The other two returning 'part-time' starters Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope will have to prove they can stay healthy before much is expected out of either. Patrick is the best receiver of the bunch (only TE with double digit receptions) and he's probably still got the highest ceiling of any returning tight ends, but the former 7th round pick will have to improve in the running game before Whiz warms up to his game. Leonard Pope is the one of the most aggravating players on the roster and plenty consider this a make or break year for the three year vet. After showing some promise down the stretch in 2007, Pope struggled to stay healthy or effective in 2008. His heighth (6'8) hasn't helped him become the red zone threat that most envisioned and it makes him almost a complete liability as a blocker. His propensity for false starts is equally frustrating. The final returning player, Alex Shor, is a career practice squad guy who's considered a long shot, at best, to make the roster. When the organization chose to sign a free agent in the middle of the season instead of 'call up' Shor, it was a pretty clear sign that they're not overly hopeful about his abilities.

The two additions to the roster, Anthony Becht and Dominique Byrd, are both former Rams. At 280 pounds, Becht is essentially a third offensive tackle but considering Whiz's desire for a running game, some consider Becht the favorite to win the starting job. Byrd is a former third round pick in 2006 who was underwhelming to say the least in St. Louis and didn't win over many fans or coaches with his desire or work ethic. Still though the Cardinals saw something that they liked when he showed up at USC's pro day this spring and he's got a shot to make the team.

All in all the Cardinals are throwing mud against the wall and hoping that something will stick. Maybe someone will stay healthy and provide some decent production or maybe we'll be scouring the free agent cast offs come mid season. Grade: D

NFC West Position-by-Position: Tight Ends

Hawkwind — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:02:57 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

6 months ago: Arizona Cardinals' Anthony Becht makes a catch during practice at Cardinals mini-camp at Cardinals' training facility, Tuesday, June 2, 2009, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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Our last installment the NFC West position by position analysis covered one of, if not the best, positions groups on the roster so perhaps it's only logical that we follow that up with covering one of the weakest positions on the Arizona Cardinals roster. The tight end position has been anything but a strength for this team and we enter the 2009 season with just as many question marks as answers, but how does the rest of the position look?

Arizona Cardinals

After struggling to find an adequate and healthy starter last year, the Cardinals seem to be taking the Jon Gruden QB approach, with their tight ends this off season. During last season four different players started multiple games at tight end for the Cardinals, Ben Patrick, Leonard Pope, Jerame Tuman and Stephen Spach. If you could summarize the talent at tight end last season in one sentence, it would be that the team signed a guy off the streets in October who became far and away the best guy on the depth chart in less than three weeks. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt, a former tight end himself, brought in two more tight ends this off season although surprisingly they didn't select one in the draft.

The current depth chart is without a star but there's more than a handful of warm bodies. Stephen Spach would have to enter camp as the early favorite to win the starting job, if he's fully healed from a torn ACL in the playoff game against the Panthers. Spach was signed mid-season and almost instantly shot to the top of the depth chart thanks to injuries and his steady play. He's not a great blocker or a great receiver but he does both adequately, which is more than anyone else could say last year. The other two returning 'part-time' starters Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope will have to prove they can stay healthy before much is expected out of either. Patrick is the best receiver of the bunch (only TE with double digit receptions) and he's probably still got the highest ceiling of any returning tight ends, but the former 7th round pick will have to improve in the running game before Whiz warms up to his game. Leonard Pope is the one of the most aggravating players on the roster and plenty consider this a make or break year for the three year vet. After showing some promise down the stretch in 2007, Pope struggled to stay healthy or effective in 2008. His height (6'8) hasn't helped him become the red zone threat that most envisioned and it makes him almost a complete liability as a blocker. His propensity for false starts is equally frustrating. The final returning player, Alex Shor, is a career practice squad guy who's considered a long shot, at best, to make the roster. When the organization chose to sign a free agent in the middle of the season instead of 'call up' Shor, it was a pretty clear sign that they're not overly hopeful about his abilities.

The two additions to the roster, Anthony Becht and Dominique Byrd, are both former Rams. At 280 pounds, Becht is essentially a third offensive tackle but considering Whiz's desire for a running game, some consider Becht the favorite to win the starting job. Byrd is a former third round pick in 2006 who was underwhelming to say the least in St. Louis and didn't win over many fans or coaches with his desire or work ethic. Still though the Cardinals saw something that they liked when he showed up at USC's pro day this spring and he's got a shot to make the team.

All in all the Cardinals are throwing mud against the wall and hoping that something will stick. Maybe someone will stay healthy and provide some decent production or maybe we'll be scouring the free agent cast offs come mid season. Grade: D

San Francisco 49ers - Niners Nation

The 49ers tight ends have created great frustration for 49ers fans for much of this decade. Lately, this frustration has come in the form of Vernon Davis. Davis is a physically gifted athlete. There are few athletes in the NFL that combine his speed and size. Of course, few athletes share his ability to talk smack while not producing at the level you'd expect from said talk.

A lot of fans have written off Vernon Davis as a loudmouth, over-hyped workout warrior. I can understand this viewpoint, but I remain convinced that Davis is a unique weapon that is essential for the 49ers future success. Although Davis has great speed and size, he often struggles to make plays on deeper routes. I remain convinced that he can be most effective in plays where the QB gets the ball in his hands as soon after the snap as possible. This is a man you can line up anywhere on the field, from TE to WR to RB and utilize his speed and size to make plays. When he's used in swing passes, screens or even reverses, he has made things happen.

I gave the 49ers a C in large part because Vernon Davis has at times been able to capitalize on the mountain of potential. In 2007, his second season, Davis finished 4th among NFC tight ends in receptions and sixth in yards. However, more than that is his blocking ability. He's pointed to as one of the best blocking tight ends in the game and he's actually said he felt he could be a Pro Bowl offensive tackle if he put on some weight. And while, those outside the 49ers flock might write that off as continued smack talk, I can tell you he's probably correct.

This past season saw him held back to block significantly more than his first two seasons in part because of the Martz offense's proclivity to give up sacks. Since the hiring of Jimmy Raye, the talk has been of using Davis in a more traditional receiving tight end role. Raye worked extensively with Tony Gonzalez in Kansas City and so it will be interesting to see how he utilizes Davis in 2009. I can guarantee you that at least Davis's receiving numbers will go up across the board. If the 49ers can properly utilize his rare physical gifts, he will be a very solid threat on offense.

The primary backup to Davis has been Delanie Walker. Walker is a wide receiver converted to tight end. He's got some solid hands, but has never quite reached the next level outside of the preseason. Aside from having a cult following, Walker's biggest claim to fame is that he's one of the few (if only) tight ends utilized on kick returns. Allen Rossum is the 49ers primary return man, but when he went down with an injury, Walker got a lot of time as a kick returner. Although injury forced it, Walker has a good deal of speed for a tight end and thus was not the worst choice in the world. However, in terms of the offense, his blocking is limited and thus he does not get as much of an opportunity as he might otherwise see.

The 49ers drafted Bear Pascoe out of Fresno State in the sixth round this year to replace blocking tight end Billy Bajema. It didn't take long for the cowboy (he actually participates in rodeos!) to gain a big fan following among 49ers fans. As a sixth round pick there's certainly a reason he was passed on by so many teams. As the replacement for Bajema, I'd imagine his primary task this year will be in the run game. However, he might turn into an upgrade over Bajema in the receiving game. Bajema had two receptions last season, which was two more than the previous two seasons combined. When Bajema was on the field, it was safe to cheat off him as a defender. Bear appeared to be a solid receiver at Fresno State, so hopefully he can keep defenders a little more honest.

Grade C

St. Louis Rams - Turf Show Times

With the coaching situation and the offense finally looking like they'll have some much needed stability, the Rams are counting on Randy McMichael to regain 60+ reception ability this season. He was sorely missed last season, leaving in week four with a broken leg. In the seasons prior to that, he was utilized more as a blocker - an area where he's "good enough" - to help compensate for the sorry state of the offensive line. He's also, officially, the team's most experienced receiver, revealing just how much the team will be counting on him. The new West Coast play book will have plenty of seam routes for McMichael and used to create mismatches in the middle on plays that use the speedy receivers like Donnie Avery to stretch the field and keep safeties honest. We know McMichael has the ability to be a useful 60 reception guy, but, needless to say, he has to stay healthy, something you can't take for granted with a TE entering his age-30 year. He is now practicing at full speed, with no limitations, but the hitting has yet to begin.

If McMichael does succumb to injury, the next receiving TE on the Rams depth chart is the 6'4" 270 lbs Cal-Davis product Daniel Fells, a mid-season pick up from the Tampa Bay practice squad. Fells flashed some potential during the 2008 season, but has really impressed with his hands in practice. Fells still has to answer charges that he doesn't play physical enough. His spot is by no means guaranteed, but he does seem to have leaped over 2006 second round pick Joe Klopfenstein, a fan icon for lost draft picks and a guy who probably won't be on the team come September.

Third on the depth chart at TE is blocking specialist Billy Bajema, signed away from the 49ers as a free agent this spring to be younger version of last year's free agent blocking TE Anthony Becht...who's now with the Cardinals in what surely must be the league's most incestuous division for tight ends.

I'm giving this unit a B. We know that McMichael is capable of being among the best of that group of TEs just below the elite guys that even the novices in your fantasy league know of. With an improved offensive line he'll get to do what he does best more often, while the other guys fill the roles.

Seattle Seahawks - Field Gulls

Combining age, health, production, support skills and cost it's tempting to award Seattle and "A"- ah hell I'll do it. Why is John Carlson and truly just John Carlson worth an "A"?

He's 25 (as of May 12) at a position that tends to decline after age 29. That means he has more productive seasons ahead of him than almost any other tight end of his capability.

He was healthy his rookie season and has no outstanding health concerns.

As part of a totally failed pass offense that lacked weapons of any kind before Deion Branch's late season resurgence, Carlson was not only productive, catching 55 passes for 627 yards and five touchdowns, but important, Seattle's leading receiver by receptions, yards, touchdowns, and efficient. It's the efficiency that's so remarkable. On an offense that couldn't produce, Carlson did. Passes targeting Carlson were worth 143 DYAR, 9th best among all tight ends. He produced with three different quarterbacks, one named Charlie Frye. He produced when NFL teams adjusted to the Seahawks' only weapon, assigning safeties to stop him and linebackers to bracket him. He produced like a top veteran at a position that's famously tough on rookies.

Carlson isn't a great pass blocker, but he's developing. He's already a pretty good run blocker and relative to his more-slot-receiver-than-tight-end contemporaries, an excellent run blocker. He's a hard worker with a pronounced competitive streak. He'll work and he'll improve.

Despite all that, he's not yet as on-field valuable as the truly elite at his position: Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley, but he has a substantial off-field advantage. Carlson cost Seattle $770,000 against the cap in 2008. His four-year contract is worth only $4.52 million. That means he will cost Seattle less in four years than Gonzalez or Winslow cost in 2008, and has less remaining through 2011 than Vernon Davis will make in 2009 alone.

So it's a qualified "A", yes, and behind Carlson is only a blocking tight end, John Owens, potential, Cameron Morrah, and busted potential, Joe Newton, but Carlson, like Heath Miller in 2008, Brandon Jacobs in 2007 and Bob Sanders in 2006, is the kind of low cost/high value talent that defines "Championship Caliber".

Grade: A

Ranking the top and bottom of the division were relatively easy but the middle two caused some debate:

Seahawks
49ers
Rams
Cardinals

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what do you guys think? How would you rank the division? Just for kicks, how many tight ends will start at least one game for the Cardinals?

Poll

How many tight ends will start at least one game for the Cardinals?

One

2 votes

Two

40 votes

Three

114 votes

Four

39 votes

Five

10 votes

I can't even count that high

29 votes

234 votes | Poll has closed

NFC West Position-by-Position: Tight Ends

Fooch — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sakuma - AP

Browse more photos »

A month into this discussion and we've discussed the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Now, we reach a position that causes a good deal of stress among 49ers fans: tight end. As divisive as the QB position is, there is probably just as big a divide in the pro/con Vernon Davis camps. He's a physically gifted athlete, but he has been wildly inconsistent. He'll make a huge play and follow that up with an absolute bonehead decision.

We decided to go with tight end for today's discussion and came up with the rankings below. A healthy Randy McMichael could possibly move the Rams to second, but for now I think the 49ers are at least second best in the division. Maybe better? Guess it depends on your thoughts on second year Seahawks TE John Carlson.

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. St. Louis Rams
4. Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks
Blogger: John Morgan
Combining age, health, production, support skills and cost it’s tempting to award Seattle and "A"— ah hell I’ll do it. Why is John Carlson and truly just John Carlson worth an "A"? He’s 25 (as of May 12) at a position that tends to decline after age 29. That means he has more productive seasons ahead of him than almost any other tight end of his capability. He was healthy his rookie season and has no outstanding health concerns.

As part of a totally failed pass offense that lacked weapons of any kind before Deion Branch’s late season resurgence, Carlson was not only productive, catching 55 passes for 627 yards and five touchdowns, but important, Seattle’s leading receiver by receptions, yards, touchdowns, and efficient. It’s the efficiency that’s so remarkable. On an offense that couldn’t produce, Carlson did. Passes targeting Carlson were worth 143 DYAR, 9th best among all tight ends. He produced with three different quarterbacks, one named Charlie Frye. He produced when NFL teams adjusted to the Seahawks’ only weapon, assigning safeties to stop him and linebackers to bracket him. He produced like a top veteran at a position that’s famously tough on rookies.

Carlson isn’t a great pass blocker, but he’s developing. He’s already a pretty good run blocker and relative to his more-slot-receiver-than-tight-end contemporaries, an excellent run blocker. He’s a hard worker with a pronounced competitive streak. He’ll work and he’ll improve.

Despite all that, he’s not yet as on-field valuable as the truly elite at his position: Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley, but he has a substantial off-field advantage. Carlson cost Seattle $770,000 against the cap in 2008. His four-year contract is worth only $4.52 million. That means he will cost Seattle less in four years than Gonzalez or Winslow cost in 2008, and has less remaining through 2011 than Vernon Davis will make in 2009 alone.

So it’s a qualified "A", yes, and behind Carlson is only a blocking tight end, John Owens, potential, Cameron Morrah, and busted potential, Joe Newton, but Carlson, like Heath Miller in 2008, Brandon Jacobs in 2007 and Bob Sanders in 2006, is the kind of low cost/high value talent that defines "Championship Caliber".

Grade: A

San Francisco 49ers
Blogger: Fooch
The 49ers tight ends have created great frustration for 49ers fans for much of this decade. Lately, this frustration has come in the form of Vernon Davis. Davis is a physically gifted athlete. There are few athletes in the NFL that combine his speed and size. Of course, few athletes share his ability to talk smack while not producing at the level you'd expect from said talk.

I gave the 49ers a C in large part because Vernon Davis has at times been able to capitalize on the mountain of potential. In 2007, his second season, Davis finished 4th among NFC tight ends in receptions and sixth in yards. However, more than that is his blocking ability. He's pointed to as one of the best blocking tight ends in the game and he's actually said he felt he could be a Pro Bowl offensive tackle if he put on some weight. And while, those outside the 49ers flock might write that off as continued smack talk, I can tell you he's probably correct.

St. Louis Rams

Blogger: VanRam
With the coaching situation and the offense finally looking like they'll have some much needed stability, the Rams are counting on Randy McMichael to regain 60+ reception ability this season. He was sorely missed last season, leaving in week four with a broken leg. In the seasons prior to that, he was utilized more as a blocker - an area where he's "good enough" - to help compensate for the sorry state of the offensive line. He's also, officially, the team's most experienced receiver, revealing just how much the team will be counting on him. The new West Coast play book will have plenty of seam routes for McMichael and used to create mismatches in the middle on plays that use the speedy receivers like Donnie Avery to stretch the field and keep safeties honest. We know McMichael has the ability to be a useful 60 reception guy, but, needless to say, he has to stay healthy, something you can't take for granted with a TE entering his age-30 year. He is now practicing at full speed, with no limitations, but the hitting has yet to begin.

If McMichael does succumb to injury, the next receiving TE on the Rams depth chart is the 6'4" 270 lbs Cal-Davis product Daniel Fells, a mid-season pick up from the Tampa Bay practice squad. Fells flashed some potential during the 2008 season, but has really impressed with his hands in practice. Fells still has to answer charges that he doesn't play physical enough. His spot is by no means guaranteed, but he does seem to have leaped over 2006 second round pick Joe Klopfenstein, a fan icon for lost draft picks and a guy who probably won't be on the team come September.

Third on the depth chart at TE is blocking specialist Billy Bajema, signed away from the 49ers as a free agent this spring to be younger version of last year's free agent blocking TE Anthony Becht...who's now with the Cardinals in what surely must be the league's most incestuous division for tight ends.

I'm giving this unit a B. We know that McMichael is capable of being among the best of that group of TEs just below the elite guys that even the novices in your fantasy league know of. With an improved offensive line he'll get to do what he does best more often, while the other guys fill the roles.

Arizona Cardinals
Blogger: cgolden
After struggling to find an adequate and healthy starter last year, the Cardinals seem to be taking the Jon Gruden QB approach, with their tight ends this off season. During last season four different players started multiple games at tight end for the Cardinals, Ben Patrick, Leonard Pope, Jerame Tuman and Stephen Spach. If you could summarize the talent at tight end last season in one sentance, it would be that the team signed a guy off the streets in October who became far and away the best guy on the depth chart in less than three weeks. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt, a former tight end himself, brought in two more tight ends this off season although surprisingly they didn't select one in the draft.

The current depth chart is without a star but there's more than a handful of warm bodies. Stephen Spach would have to enter camp as the early favorite to win the starting job, if he's fully healed from a torn ACL in the playoff game against the Panthers. Spach was signed mid-season and almost instantly shot to the top of the depth chart thanks to injuries and his steady play. He's not a great blocker or a great receiver but he does both adequetely, which is more than anyone else could say last year. The other two returning 'part-time' starters Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope will have to prove they can stay healthy before much is expected out of either. Patrick is the best receiver of the bunch (only TE with double digit receptions) and he's probably still got the highest ceiling of any returning tight ends, but the former 7th round pick will have to improve in the running game before Whiz warms up to his game. Leonard Pope is the one of the most aggravating players on the roster and plenty consider this a make or break year for the three year vet. After showing some promise down the stretch in 2007, Pope struggled to stay healthy or effective in 2008. His heighth (6'8) hasn't helped him become the red zone threat that most envisioned and it makes him almost a complete liability as a blocker. His propensity for false starts is equally frustrating. The final returning player, Alex Shor, is a career practice squad guy who's considered a long shot, at best, to make the roster. When the organization chose to sign a free agent in the middle of the season instead of 'call up' Shor, it was a pretty clear sign that they're not overly hopeful about his abilities.

The two additions to the roster, Anthony Becht and Dominique Byrd, are both former Rams. At 280 pounds, Becht is essentially a third offensive tackle but considering Whiz's desire for a running game, some consider Becht the favorite to win the starting job. Byrd is a former third round pick in 2006 who was underwhelming to say the least in St. Louis and didn't win over many fans or coaches with his desire or work ethic. Still though the Cardinals saw something that they liked when he showed up at USC's pro day this spring and he's got a shot to make the team.

All in all the Cardinals are throwing mud against the wall and hoping that something will stick. Maybe someone will stay healthy and provide some decent production or maybe we'll be scouring the free agent cast offs come mid season. Grade: D

Poll

Who has the best tight ends in the division?

Arizona

7 votes

St. Louis

6 votes

San Francisco

442 votes

Seattle

85 votes

540 votes | Poll has closed