SB Nation - Arnaz Battle

Shotgun Wedding: Alex Smith Meets the Offense of His Dreams

Florida Danny — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:00:34 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: The time I usually devote to team and players stats was instead devoted last week to this very special article I've put together with the help of Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders (FO). He provided the individual stats for Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, and I did the writing, but we're both in general agreement about what the stats say as they relate to Smith and the shotgun. If you want to show your appreciation for Aaron's entirely unobligated attention to the whims of our blog, and have an interest in accessing FO's statistical database for yourself, head over to his site and get the premium membership. Obviously, I highly recommend it.

Besides whether or not Mike Nolan was going to make it through an entire press conference without saying, "look it," the fate of Alex Smith has been the hottest topic of Niner debate over the past 5 years. I don't need to recap all the gory details, but suffice it to say that he's a polarizing figure among Niner fans. My goal for this post is not to settle the debate. Rather, what I'd like to do here is answer a Dennis-Green-esque question about Smith: Is he who we thought he was?

Whether you love him or hate him, and whether you think he's the 49ers' "QB of the future" or not, there's no denying that what we've seen from Smith this season constitutes a remarkable turnaround for a guy who, just 9 months ago, was in serious danger of being released. In this post, my intention is to show - as crisply and clearly as possible - what the statistics say about the reason(s) for his resurrection. I know the guy's already married and all, but, as you'll see, this season has been something of a shotgun wedding for Smith.

A ROCKY RELATIONSHIP

There's really no mistaking the fact that Smith's career has been seriously hampered by injury. Indeed, he's only had 2 seasons in which he was actually healthy: 2006 and 2009. So, the first clue about the reason for his renaissance is that he's actually healthy. To drive the point home, here's a table showing the 49ers' Pass OFF DVOA for games since 2005 that Smith did not play, games he played while coming off of an injury, and games he played while totally healthy (I've excluded 5 games in which multiple QBs played):

Game Type	G	Avg Pass OFF Game DVOA
Smith healthy	25	-5.2%
Smith coming off injury	8	-63.3%
Smith did not play	37	-22.9%

As you can see from this table, the 49ers' pass OFF has been considerably better in games when Smith is healthy when compared to games in which he didn't play or played coming off of an injury. What's most interesting to me is that, despite the ridiculously small sample size for "Smith coming off injury," the 58.1% difference is statistically significant within 95% certainty. In other words, it's beyond a reasonable statistical doubt that the Niners' OFF plays better when Smith is healthy.

After the jump, I'll show why health is just one of many things that are the same between 2006 and 2009, and therefore can't explain why Smith is better in 2009 than 2006. And, of course, I'll offer my suggestion for what CAN explain it (See story title)...

Of course, not all "Smith healthy" games are created equally. For instance, 16 of these 25 games occurred in 2006, 3 occurred in 2007, and 6 have occurred in 2009. Each of these seasons was qualitatively different for various reasons:

Different offensive coordinators (OCs)
Different offensive lines (OLs)
Different receiving corps

So, to further isolate the reason(s) for Smith's renaissance, we need to see if any of these qualitative differences have exhibited any quantitative (i.e., statistical) difference to support the theory that they are a meaningful contributor to Smith's turnaround this season. Again, remember that we're comparing "healthy Alex" to "healthy Alex" here so that we partial out health as a factor.

First, the OCs. It's conventional wisdom around NinerLand that Norv Turner turned Smith into a competent NFL QB during the 2006 season. However, as we've just seen, the fact that Smith was healthy in 2006 is as important - or more important - a reason for why he played so well that season. Interestingly enough, the fact of the matter is that Smith - and the Niners' overall Pass OFF in games he started* - is considerably better this season than he was in 2006 (2009 stats are through Week 13, Pass OFF Game DVOAs only include games Smith started):

Season	G	DYAR/P	DVOA	EYds/P	Avg Pass OFF Game DVOA
2009	7	0.68	-0.4%	6.05	1.2%
2006	16	-0.26	-15.3%	4.72	-2.4%
2009 Difference		+0.94	+14.9%	+1.33	+3.6%

So, if Smith is better now, how much of it has to do with the fact that Jimmy Raye is his OC rather than Turner. Here's a table comparing the Raye's and Turner's career DVOA stats and rankings prior to being hired by the 49ers:

OC	OFF	Rank	Pass OFF	Rank	Rush OFF	Rank
Turner	-2.2%	16.3	-2.6%	17.3	-2.5%	16.7
Raye	-0.6%	14.3	0.9%	16.0	-2.9%	13.8
Raye Difference	+1.6%	+2.0	+3.5%	+1.3	-0.4%	+2.9

While I'd say that Raye's track record was slightly better when he got hired, I wouldn't say that it necessarily accounts for Alex Smith's improvement above and beyond what we already know about the impact of health. For instance, a 3.5% improvement in Pass OFF DVOA -which is what we'd expect given Raye's and Turner's track records - is hardly a drop in the bucket of Smith's 14.9% individual DVOA improvement. Also, keep in mind that Turner's stats don't include his pre-DVOA-era stint as OC of the early-90s Dallas Cowboys. So, all in all, I'd say the difference in OCs doesn't explain Smith's renaissance.

Onto the OLs. How much of Smith's improvement this season can be attributed to the inherent ability of his OL to block pass rushers? Here's the comparison:

OL	G	ASR	Rank
2009	12	8.6%	27
2006	16	6.8%	18
2009 Difference		-1.8%	-9

OK, so actually, the Niners' OL is worse this season when it comes to pass-blocking. Of course, FO's research shows that ASR is more dependent on the QB than people realize, so it may just be the case that the OL's worse ASR this season is a byproduct of Shaun Hill starting at QB for about half the games. As I'll show later on, ASR has, in fact, decreased since Smith took over at QB. However, what we're trying to explain here is whether Smith's renaissance is due to having a better OL in 2009. Suffice it to say that, even acknowledging the OL's ASR improvement with Smith at QB this season, their ASR is still not better than it was in 2006. In other words, even if you account for the fact that a sack-prone Hill was the QB earlier in the year, the OL is still not pass-blocking better this season than in 2006, and so "better OL pass-blocking" can't be the reason for Smith being better this season than he was in 2006.

The third component of potential qualitative differences between Smith's 2006 and 2009 seasons is his supporting cast in the passing game. Here's a table showing the stats for his stable of receivers in 2006 and 2009:

	2006				2009
Stat	Bryant	Battle	EJ/VD	Gore	Crabs	Morgan	VD	Gore
Targets	91	86	91	86	56	59	101	57
DYAR/T	0.09	1.23	-0.33	1.53	-0.75	-0.27	1.47	1.23
EYds/T	6.43	8.06	3.74	7.66	4.96	5.93	8.50	6.53
Weighted Avg	DYAR/T = 0.61 EYds/T = 6.43				DYAR/T = 0.59 EYds/T = 6.81

From the averages at the bottom of this table - which are weighted by number of targets - it's pretty clear that Smith's 2009 receiving corps is not much better - if at all - than his 2006 receiving corps. It's true that Vernon Davis is better now than when he split time with Eric Johnson back in 2006, but Frank Gore's receiving stats are worse this season, and both of Smith's starting WRs (Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan) are worse statistically than their counterparts in 2006 (Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle). Therefore, it ends up being a wash.

So, just to recap this section, we've determined a few things. First, Alex Smith is significantly better when he's healthy than when he's not (aka duh!). Second, when comparing "healthy Alex" to "healthy Alex," he's actually better this season than he was in 2006. Third, this improvement is not due to (a) having a better OC, (b) having a better OL, or (c) having a better receiving corps.

I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU QB AND OFFENSE

Based on the above, Alex is having his best season this year, but it's not because of health (i.e., he was worse while healthy in 2006), it's not because of a better OC, it's not because of an improved OL, and it's not because of an improved receiving corps. What the hell is it then?

Well, perhaps there's something about this season in particular that doesn't have to do with any of the factors that I've already ruled out. Oh, I know, it's called "the elephant in the room," aka shotgun OFF. Because the only thing different - in terms of offensive football - between this season and his other healthy season, 2006, is the implementation of a shotgun OFF, the only stat-related** factor left to look at is whether or not the reason for Smith's renaissance is due to him being a better shotgun QB.

Thanks to Aaron Schatz over at Football Outsiders***, I got my hands on Smith's individual shotgun and non-shotgun stats through 11 games:

QB	Plays	% Shotgun	Yards per Pass	IR	DVOA	VOA
Smith in Shotgun	125	60.1%	5.98	2.4%	8.4%	13.5%
Smith Under Center	83	39.9%	5.49	4.8%	-29.6%	-25.3%

Eureka! When Smith is in the shotgun, he averages half-a-yard more per pass, his interception rate (IR) drops by half, and his QB DVOA is 38.0% better! So, yeah, Smith is waaaaay better in the shotgun.

Of course, it could just be that all QBs show this kind of discrepancy between shotgun and non-shotgun performance (after all, FO's research shows as much), and so what I'm attributing to shotgun might actually just be a statistical artifact of that formation being more efficient in general. To solve this, we need to do a little experiment.

If only there was a QB to compare Smith to that's had the same OC, the same OL, and the same supporting cast this season. Oh wait, there is. His name is Shaun Hill. The question at hand, then, is, "Was Shaun Hill waaaaay better in the shotgun this season just like Alex Smith has been?" Again, thanks to Aaron, here's Hill's stats:

QB	Plays	% Shotgun	Yards Per Pass	IR	DVOA	VOA
Hill in Shotgun	89	50.3%	6.03	2.2%	-22.1%	-4.9%
Hill Under Center	88	49.7%	3.86	0.0%	-35.0%	-27.5%

As is plainly obvious, Hill did not enjoy anywhere near the amount of improvement in shotgun that Smith has. Hill's Shotgun GB DVOA was over 30% worse than Smith's is, and his "benefit from the shotgun" difference is over 3 times smaller. Furthermore, as you can see from the differences between DVOA and unadjusted VOA for each QB, Hill's horrible shotgun efficiency actually came against an easier shotgun schedule. In other words, Smith's massive benefit from shotgun as compared to Hill was totally independent of any difference in strength of schedule.****

So, essentially, if we put another QB in practically the exact same situation as Alex Smith in 2009, that QB doesn't benefit from shotgun nearly as much. In other words, all else being equal, Smith has been helped by the shotgun offense waaaaaay more than Hill, who had the same OC, same OL, and same stable of receivers (p.s. In case you're wondering, Bruce stats = Crabtree stats, and Morgan with Smith < Morgan with Hill, so, if anything, Hill had a better supporting cast according to DVOA).

MARRIED WITH CHILDREN

Just to put an exclamation point on things, let me provide some evidence showing that the increase in shotgun with Smith at QB has borne fruit outside of Smith's own renaissance. Here's a table showing some 49er stats as they were after Hill's last full game, and as they are after 12 games:

Statistic	Through 5 Games	Rank	Through 12 Games	Rank	Change	Rank
OFF DVOA	-16.0%	26	-7.1%	21	+8.9%	+5
Pass OFF DVOA	-8.6%	26	1.3%	21	+9.9%	+5
Rush OFF DVOA	-18.0%	27	-5.8%	25	+12.2%	+2
OL ALY	2.86	31	3.23	32	+0.37	-1
OL ASR	10.7%	30	8.6%	27	+2.1%	+3

As you can see, there's been absolute improvement across the board: better overall OFF, better pass OFF, better rush OFF, better run-blocking, and better pass-blocking. In other words, an increase in the use of shotgun underlies both Smith's specific improvement and a general improvement in the 49ers' OFF overall.

BOTTOM LINE

If you put everything I've presented in this post together, you see a clear picture of why Alex Smith appears to be a better QB all of a sudden. The stats-based logic goes something like this:

Smith plays better when healthy, and the 49ers' OFF plays better with a healthy Smith.
Smith has only had 2 healthy seasons with the Niners: 2006 and 2009.
Smith is playing better while healthy in 2009 than he did while healthy in 2006.
Smith does not have a better OC, a better OL, or a better receiving corps than he did in 2006.
Therefore, Smith's improvement in 2009 cannot be attributed to health, OC, OL, or receivers.
Smith plays waaaaay better in the shotgun.
Hill, who had the same OC, OL, and receivers as Smith, and even played an easier shotgun schedule than Smith, did not play waaaaay better in the shotgun.
Smith has taken about 60% of his snaps from shotgun this season.
Therefore, the main reason for Smith's renaissance is more shotgun.

In other words, it's been a shotgun wedding for Smith and the 49ers' OFF.

*If you add in the 83.8% Pass OFF Game DVOA for this season's Texans game, the 2009 average increases to 13.0%.

**I realize that there are non-statistical factors that could explain Smith's improvement. He could just be a "smarter QB" now after having basically done nothing but "mental reps" for the past 2 years. He could be "more mature" given the adversity he's had to fight through so far in his career and personal life. However, these are intangibles that no one can - or should - try to measure from my distance. So, I'm limited to tangibles that we can measure statistically. I will say, however, that, if it's truly the case that Smith is "smarter" or "more mature" in 2009, then why do these things not show up when he's under center? Can it really be that moving a few steps forward and putting his hands under his C's rear end makes his brain go soft and turns him into an NFL toddler? I seriously doubt that.

***DVOA, DYAR, EYds, ALY, & ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

****And one more thing, don't think that Hill has been worse than Smith from shotgun simply by virtue of taking a lower percentage of snaps in that generally-more-efficient formation. Remember, I've presented their "per play" stats, i.e., I've already accounted for the difference in shotgun percentage, and, therefore, eliminated it as a confounding variable.

Poll

To which of the following do you attribute Alex Smith being better statistically this season than he was in 2006?

Singletary’s Formula for Success through 12 Games

Florida Danny — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:04:43 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Seahawks game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

Total Ball Security
Execute
Dominate the Trenches
Create Good Field Position
Finish

The first thing I'll say is, "Don't worry. This isn't another equation-heavy measurement statistics article." OK. With that out of the way - and most of you still around - I'll repeat that, given the large sample sizes at this point in the season, don't expect too much fluctuation in any of the Formula-related stats I present today. Instead, it's most important to focus on the changes in these stats as compared to last week.

In today's post, I'll first present updated Adjusted BS Rates - along with their components - for each NFL team. Then, as I did last week, I'll use one gigantic table to present all of the stats that measure the other 4 ingredients of Singletary's Formula for Success. Of course, as has been the case of late, I'll provide some brief commentary along the way

After the jump, a pile of BS followed by a heaping helping of formula ingredients...

ADJUSTED BS RATES

Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 12 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):

	Team	Adj BS Rate	Last Wk	BS Rate	Rk	FR	Rk	IR	Rk	Adj IR	Rk
1	MIN	98.70%	1	98.78%	1	1.24%	2	1.19%	1	1.43%	3
2	NE	98.61%	2	98.35%	3	1.41%	3	2.11%	8	1.34%	2
3	MIA	98.21%	3	97.75%	14	1.99%	12	2.86%	18	1.32%	1
4	SD	98.18%	6	98.39%	2	1.62%	4	1.60%	3	2.24%	7
5	IND	98.15%	5	98.30%	4	1.20%	1	2.60%	13	3.02%	19
6	ATL	98.05%	7	97.77%	11	1.73%	6	3.24%	24	2.38%	8
7	PHI	98.01%	11	98.08%	7	1.80%	8	2.15%	9	2.39%	9
8	DAL	97.98%	13	97.92%	9	2.27%	21	1.69%	5	1.53%	4
9	DEN	97.95%	4	98.21%	5	1.66%	5	2.07%	7	2.88%	15
10	NO	97.90%	12	97.73%	15	2.14%	17	2.55%	12	2.01%	6
11	GB	97.90%	8	98.18%	6	1.90%	10	1.65%	4	2.54%	10
12	BAL	97.83%	9	97.94%	8	1.75%	7	2.68%	15	3.04%	20
13	HOU	97.78%	10	97.75%	13	1.80%	9	3.15%	23	3.07%	21
14	JAC	97.71%	14	97.82%	10	2.47%	25	1.54%	2	1.90%	5
15	STL	97.68%	15	97.70%	16	2.00%	13	2.91%	19	2.99%	18
16	CIN	97.60%	17	97.77%	12	2.03%	15	2.74%	17	3.32%	23
17	NYG	97.57%	16	97.65%	19	2.18%	19	2.73%	16	2.96%	17
18	SF	97.55%	18	97.70%	17	2.32%	22	2.27%	10	2.71%	11
19	CLE	97.47%	23	97.32%	22	2.09%	16	3.97%	26	3.49%	24
20	PIT	97.44%	19	97.67%	18	2.00%	14	3.02%	21	3.75%	25
21	ARI	97.35%	22	97.54%	20	2.38%	23	2.61%	14	3.16%	22
22	TEN	97.33%	21	97.30%	23	2.59%	27	2.95%	20	2.85%	14
23	BUF	97.32%	20	97.15%	25	2.17%	18	4.41%	27	3.86%	27
24	WAS	97.21%	25	97.10%	26	2.82%	29	3.07%	22	2.72%	12
25	SEA	97.15%	26	97.47%	21	2.83%	30	1.96%	6	2.88%	16
26	KC	97.12%	24	97.28%	24	2.91%	32	2.30%	11	2.81%	13
27	DET	96.98%	27	96.94%	28	1.91%	11	5.30%	30	5.18%	31
28	NYJ	96.98%	31	96.63%	31	2.46%	24	5.96%	32	4.62%	29
29	CAR	96.97%	29	96.78%	29	2.23%	20	5.57%	31	4.91%	30
30	TB	96.95%	28	96.48%	32	2.69%	28	5.21%	29	3.77%	26
31	OAK	96.78%	32	96.95%	27	2.83%	31	3.55%	25	4.11%	28
32	CHI	96.56%	30	96.72%	30	2.54%	26	4.72%	28	5.18%	32

If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.

One thing I forgot to mention last week is that the 49ers actually have the best Adjusted BS Rate among the 4 NFC West teams. So, if Total Ball Security is one of the mechanisms via which Mike Singletary envisions his team winning the division (at some point in my lifetime), then they're well on their way when it comes to avoiding fumbles and interceptions.

Of course, you wouldn't exactly expect that given the 49ers' fumbling woes against the Seahawks and the Cardinals stellar play of late. However, the reason why they remained at #18 this week should be pretty apparent. Namely, their 2 fumbles against the Seahawks, although costly during that particular game, constituted only 2 of their 76 fumbling opportunities in Week 13 (2.63%); and, more importantly, they represented only 2 of their 777 total fumbling opportunities through 12 games (0.26%). Essentially, those 2 fumbles didn't affect the overall stats that much because of the large sample size.

Nevertheless, although it may not have affected their Adjusted BS Rate very much, their fumble-prone (and interception-averse) performance against SEA did affect their component rankings in two ways. First, they dropped from 21st to 22nd in FR because their 2.63% FR on Sunday was still higher than their 2.28% FR going into Sunday's game. Second, their IRs moved up considerably in the rankings: their IR ranking rose from #13 to #10 and their Adjusted IR ranking rose from #17 to #11.

Why the big leap in IRs? Well, it's pretty simple, Alex Smith threw 0 INTs in 45 passes against SEA, and 0.00% is as good as it gets with respect to IR. What's interesting to me about the 49ers being the 10th- or 11th-best team in terms of avoiding INTs -and this should not shock you whatsoever - is that their decrease in IR has coincided perfectly with their increase in the use of shotgun, as well as their increase in passing frequency. Here's a useful table to illustrate this point:

Time Frame	% Shotgun	Passes per Game	INTs	IR
Through 9 Games	37.1%	30.9	8	2.88%
Through 10 Games	40.0%	31.1	9	2.89%
Through 11 Games	41.5%	32.0	9	2.56%
Through 12 Games	43.3%	33.1	9	2.27%

Why is this interesting to me? Well, in football, it's pretty much the conventional wisdom that more passing leads to a higher IR. Likewise, the conventional wisdom among anti-shotgun Niner fans is that more shotgun leads to a higher IR. From this table, we can see that, since SF implemented their shotgun OFF for the first time against GB, their IR has clearly defied the conventional wisdom; it's actually getting better! Indeed, over the past 3 games, Alex Smith has thrown only 1 INT in 119 passes, for an astonishingly microscopic IR of 0.84%. What's even more amazing about Smith's nearly "total" ball security is that the last 3 shotgun- and passing-heavy games have come against teams that have an average defensive IR of 3.51% (average ranking = 12th). Ho hum, just another meaningless piece of evidence that shotgun-haters are going to ignore when they argue that the Niners need to go back to running the ball or the West Coast Offense or whatever it is this week. I look forward to hearing your denials in the comments section.

As for the rest of the NFL, the biggest leapers this week were the Eagles and Cowboys, who ascended into the top 8 at the expense of the Broncos and Packers. In terms of the relationship between Adjusted BS Rate and winning, the top 8 teams are a combined 58-38, while the bottom 8 teams are a combined 31-65. A few other things I'll point out before moving on are

The Dolphins are #3 in Adjusted BS Rate despite being less than 2 full seasons removed from a 1-15 record. Meanwhile, the Niners are still only #18 despite being in a "rebuilding mode" for the past 6 years. Why isn't the Dolphins record better than 6-6 this season? Looking at the difference between their Adjusted and Unadjusted IR, you see that they've had a governor on their engine called "the toughest IR strength of schedule (SOS) in the NFL."
The same thing can be said for the other seemingly underachieving team in the top 8: The Atlanta Falcons. Yes, passes by Matt Ryan (and now Chris Redman) have been intercepted rather frequently. However, these INTs have come against the 4th-toughest IR schedule in the league.
On the flip side, DEN is in the top 8 when it comes to Unadjusted IR, but they're only a middle-of-the-road IR team when we take their 3rd-easiest IR SOS into account. So, in my mind, their 8-4 record is somewhat of a mirage insofar as it's a byproduct of ball security in the passing game.

THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS

Now that I have a useful stat for measuring Total Ball Security, I can add it to the following table, which displays the Niners stats according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):

		This Week		Last Week		Change
Formula Ingredient	Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Total Ball Security	Adj BS Rate	97.55%	18	97.53%	18	-0.02%	0
Total Ball Security	BS Rate	97.70%	17	97.63%	19	-0.07%	+2
Total Ball Security	FR	2.32%	22	2.28%	21	-0.04%	-1
Total Ball Security	IR	2.27%	10	2.56%	13	+0.29%	+3
Total Ball Security	Adj IR	2.71%	11	2.86%	17	+0.15%	+6
Execute	Total	0.6%	17	-1.6%	20	+1.0%	+3
Execute	OFF	-7.1%	21	-10.0%	21	+2.9%	0
Execute	DEF	-7.2%	5	-7.6%	7	+0.4%	+2
Execute	ST	0.5%	16	0.8%	15	+0.3%	-1
Execute	1Q OFF	-31.9%	30	-39.3%	31	+7.4%	+1
Execute	1Q DEF	-6.8%	11	-2.7%	13	+4.1%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	OL ALY	3.23	32	3.21	32	+0.02	0
Dominate the Trenches	OL ASR	8.6%	27	9.3%	29	+0.7%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ALY	3.65	8	3.65	7	0.00	-1
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ASR	7.1%	7	6.7%	13	+0.4%	+6
Create Great Field Position	FG/XP Pts	1.7	14	1.1	15	+0.6	+1
Create Great Field Position	KO Pts	3.9	12	3.2	15	+0.7	+3
Create Great Field Position	KR Pts	-1.9	17	-1.9	18	0.0	+1
Create Great Field Position	P Pts	12.0	2	11.0	2	+1.0	0
Create Great Field Position	PR Pts	-13.5	32	-10.1	31	-3.4	-1
Create Great Field Position	Own 1-20 OFF	-32.2%	30	-35.2%	30	+3.0%	0
Create Great Field Position	Opp 1-20 DEF	19.5%	24	22.2%	24	+2.7%	0
Finish	4Q OFF	6.4%	16	3.2%	18	+3.2%	+2
Finish	4Q DEF	4.5%	15	2.8%	14	-1.7%	-1
Finish	Late/Close OFF	-24.8%	28	-27.7%	31	+2.9%	+3
Finish	Late/Close DEF	-11.0%	7	-13.1%	9	-2.1%	+2

Aside from the aforementioned improvement in Adjusted IR, the Niners' biggest Formula-related statistical change this week came in defensive front 7 (DF7) ASR: the 49ers' DF7 is now in the top 8 of the NFL when it comes to sacking the QB. I never thought I'd write that sentence; that's for sure.

A few other changes that are interesting...First, every offensive DVOA in this table showed improvement over last week. For reasons that I've repeated numerous times on Niners Nation, the most important offensive improvement -in my mind - is the massive jump in 1st-Quarter DVOA. Hot starts - especially on the road - are what good teams display, so, if this stat continues to improve over the final 4 games, it bodes well for next season.

Second, thanks to the Terrible Twosome of Arnaz Battle and Brandon Jones - not to be confused with the Tainted Twosome of VD and Crabs - the Niners have now lost 13.5 points-worth of field position on punt returns. A lot of fans bemoan the 49ers' awful "return teams," but in actuality it's only the punt return team that's truly awful. The kickoff return unit is below average, for sure, but they've cost the Niners about 12 fewer points-worth of field position than the punt return unit. So when you're complaining about the "return teams," focus your ire on the guys who catch, run, and block when the opponent punts the ball.

Finally, only 1 of the 5 Formula ingredients showed improvement across the board: Execute. That's obviously a good thing.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:

Total Ball Security - Amazingly, the shotgun OFF has turned Smith into a ball-secure QB. Unfortunately, the Niners as a whole are still mediocre in this ingredient because Frank Gore and Arnaz Battle continue to be ball-insecure 49ers.
Execute - They're still average, but improving across the board.
Dominate in the Trenches - They're still average overall, but the DF7 is dominating in pass-rushing situations.
Create Great Field Position - They're still average. If it weren't for the pathetic punt return unit, they'd be well above average.
Finish - They're still average, but at least the OFF is catching up to the DEF.

Coming up later today or tomorrow... a very special article about Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and the shotgun OFF.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Whether or not you agree with more shotgun, are you surprised that the 49ers' offensive interception rate has gone down considerably since they unveiled their new shotgun offense?

Week 13 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:00:40 -0000

The theme for today's matchup review post, similar to the theme of recent 49er teams, is "what could have been." In 2006, the Niners beat the division-leading Seahawks to pull within 1 game of the division lead at 5-5. They had a pretty favorable stretch of upcoming games against the 4-6 Rams, 6-4 Saints, and 4-6 Packers, and we got all excited. Unfortunately, they proceeded to lose all 3 of those games, only to beat the Seahawks again in Week 15 to revive our hopes once more. What happens next? As the Seahawks are in the midst of losing to the 12-2 Chargers, the Niners lay an absolute egg against the 4-10 (!!!) Cardinals to kick us in the junk one more time for good measure.

Sound familiar? This season, the Niners have brought out their junk-kicking boots once again, with their wins coming when they're seemingly out of the playoff picture, and their losses coming when they're firmly within the picture frame. This Sunday's loss was, ala the Cardinals' game in 2006, the final for-good-measure display of their junk-kicking skills.

What does this have to do with the matchup review? Well, as you'll see, this was a game that the 49ers should have won easily. The loss defied more than just statistics; it defied logic altogether. Some matchup results ended up in perfect accordance with what they needed to accomplish, and yet they still lost. In other matchups, they turned stone-cold, lead-pipe advantages into performances befitting the Keystone Kops. All in all, if you want to understand the anatomy of a kick in the junk, this Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks helps explain why 49er teams of recent vintage have continually given us their best Sisyphus impression.

Ladies and gentlemen, grab your barf bags as I present this week's statistical matchup review alternately titled, How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Before the game, I displayed a chart showing that, without fail, the Seahawks' wins and losses through 11 games had a 1-to-1 dependency on their DEF DVOA for the game: above average = Seahawks win; below average = Seahawks loss. Well, wouldn't you know it, but the 49ers decided to play the role of bedside nurse once again, giving their opponent exactly what ails them. In the case of the SEA game, it turns out that the Niners lost despite SEA having a below-average Game DEF DVOA of 24.5%; their 3rd-worst Game DEF DVOA of the season!

So basically, the Seahawks DEF sucked just about as bad as they were supposed to suck (if not worse), and yet the 49ers couldn't do what every other team that's encountered said death-spiraling Seahawk DEF has done: win the damn game. What makes matters even worse - and more odds-defying - is that the Niners' had an above-average Game OFF DVOA of 9.5%; their 3rd-best Game OFF DVOA of the season! Oh, and by the way, just for kicks, they also had an above-average Game DEF DVOA of -8.1%. Tell most any NFL team that they're going to have one of their best days on OFF, and their 4-7 opponent, whose losses occur when they play bad DEF, is going to have one of their worst days on DEF, and that team is going to tell you that an ass-whooping is what they're about to dish out. Behold the (2006 and) 2009 49ers: not most any NFL team.

After the jump, I'll make you reach for the Pepto...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Here's another case of the odds-defying game result. Just to remind you, the first part of the equation in this matchup had to do with the 49ers's DEF having a massive advantage over the Seahawks' OFF in passing situations on 2nd down. The second part was that, given this advantage, the Niners' DEF needed to constantly put SEA's OFF in such situations by holding them to 3 yards or less on 1st down.

Interesting stat #1: SEA had 3 successful plays out of 11 passing plays on 2nd & long (27.3%); as compared to a 50% success rate on 2nd & long runs. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #2: When the Niners' DEF stopped SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, TD, Half, Punt, Punt, Punt. 49ers exploit advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #3: On the lone TD drive in the previous list, the 49ers' DEF gave up 2 of the Seahawks' 3 successful 2nd-down passing plays in the entire game. 49ers blow advantage? Check. Interesting stat #4: When the Niners' DEF didn't stop SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with TD, Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Punt, FG. 49ers blow advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #5: Before Arnaz Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 4 for 4 (i.e., a perfect 100% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #6: After Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 13 for 25 (i.e., a lackluster 52% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. Battle blows DEF's advantage? Check.

So, my point here is that the matchup played out exactly as expected. When Matt Hasselbeck and company passed the ball on 2nd & long, it worked in the 49ers' favor. Otherwise, it didn't. When the Niners' DEF started a drive by putting SEA into 2nd & long, it ultimately worked in the 49ers' favor on the drive. Otherwise, it didn't. When the coaching staff wasn't calling ridiculous special teams plays, and pinning their hopes on the tandem of "Human Roster Exemption" and "Worst WR-Signing of 2009," it worked in the Niner DEF's favor. Otherwise, it didn't.

The fact of the matter is, however, that this matchup worked out in the 49ers' favor far more than it didn't, and yet, they still lost the game. Why? How about 3 matchup-defying epic fails: a 15-yard gain on 2nd & 8, a 25-yard gain on 2nd & 7, and a 32-yard gain on 1st & 10. The first 2 came on SEA's 2nd TD drive (if you want to call the 1st one "a drive"), and the third came on SEA's final game-winning drive. Interesting stat #7: 3 epic matchup fails = 49ers loss.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Do I really have to say much about this one? The Niners' DEF had a 167.9% (!!!) DVOA advantage if/when SEA threw red zone passes, and was coming off a game in which the dropped the hammer on the Jaguars' similarly disadvantaged OFF in this exact game situation. So much for that, I guess: Both of SEA's TDs came on red zone passes. Nice job, guys. Revised interesting stat # 7: 5 epic fails = 49ers loss.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

Remember how, in last week's matchup review, I lauded the 49ers' coaching staff for exploiting Frank Gore's advantage against JAX's DEF in the passing game? Remember how I mentioned that he was the target for 25% of Alex Smith's passes in the JAX game, and how Smith threw 6 of his first 9 passes to Gore? After looking at the SEA-game play-by-play, they're resigned to remain exactly that: memories.

Against the Seahawks, Gore was the target of a Smith pass only 7 times, or only 15.5% of Smith's 45-pass total. What's worse is that, after being the target of Smith's 3rd pass of the game, Gore did not have a ball thrown his way for 14 straight passes! A certain pearl of 1980s pop culture comes to mind here: Hello? McFly?

This one is definitely on the coaches. How do you go into a game against the 26th-ranked pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw Gore the ball like he's Roger Craig, but then go into the following game against the #27 pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw him the ball like he's Billy Bajema? It makes absolutely no sense to me. The worst part is that 4 of Gore's 5 catches ended up being successful plays for the Niners' OFF. Hello? McFly? Re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 1 coaching fail = 49ers loss.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Enough of the epic failing; let's go back to the "lose despite epic success" theme. I don't need to give you the play-by-play for you to know that the Niners's OFF shot, roasted, and ate the Seahawks DEF during the 1st quarter. If not for one of the worst non-calls I've ever seen, the Niners would have been up 14-0 only 8:35 into the game. And, to me, 14-0 is meaningfully different than 7-0. To an NFL team, being down by 7 in the 1st quarter means "only one score away." But, to a 4-7 NFL team like the Seahawks, only 2 weeks removed from receiving a 35-9 beatdown at the hands of the Vikings, being down by 14 midway through the 1st quarter means "I can't wait to clean out my locker and get the hell out of here."

I don't care what anyone says, but the fact that the 49ers' 1st-quarter dominance on offense didn't end up helping them win the game is something you can pin squarely on the backs of the inept officiating tandem that saw no evil on that play. Of course, were you at all surprised that (non-)call went the other way? Remember, the alternate title of this movie is How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion. Getting that call isn't in the script.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...One more epic coaching fail for you guys before I'm done. Before the game, I mentioned how SEA's DEF is 6th-worst in the NFL when it comes to efficiency on plays when the opposing OFF lines up in shotgun. As was the case in the Jags game, the Niners needed more shotgun. It turns out they used even more shotgun OFF against SEA (62.1% of all plays) than they did against JAX (55.7%). The coaches are fine so far.

Where the epic coaching fail begins is related to something I've been talking about for weeks: the benefit of shotgun to the running game. Against the Seahawks, the 49ers' OFF had a 44.4% play success rate from the shotgun formation, and a 36.4% play success rate when Smith lined up under center; so, yeah, we know already, shotgun is more efficient overall.

The interesting things about the SEA game are (a) the pass OFF was slightly more efficient under center (50.0%) than they were in shotgun (46.9% success rate), and (b) the run OFF was a pathetic 0 for 7 (success rate = 0.0%) on running plays in non-shotgun formations!!!

Why? Hmm. Might the former have something to do with the fact that 7 of Gore's 9 carries were on non-shotgun plays? Might somebody be telegraphing their passing plays? Might the entire world know that, when the 49ers line up in shotgun, they're going to pass the ball? Might it be a little less difficult to defend the pass when a team knows it's coming? Hmm. And might the latter have something to do with the fact that, against SEA, the Niners were 6 times as likely to run the ball when under center than when in shotgun? Or perhaps it has something to do with the fact that, except for one drive in which they mysteriously exhumed their Gore-up-the-middle-three-times-then-punt OFF, all of Gore's runs came on 1st down? Hmm.

Hopefully, you're getting my point for the 100th time. One of the main reasons I cited for shotgun being useful for the 49ers and their inept OL is that it allows an OFF to disguise their play-calls. If you run out of shotgun efficiently, it will be nearly impossible for the DEF to know when you're going to run because the norm for NFL DEF's is to defend pass first against shotgun. DEFs defending pass first = easier blocking for the OL on running plays.

So, one of the main benefits of shotgun is disguise. But here we have a game in which the coaching staff (read Jimmy Raye) somehow was able to force his telegraphing nature into an offense specifically designed to avoid telegraphing. Want to know what one SEA defensive coach said to the others? It goes like this: "Hey guys, when Smith is in shotgun, they're passing. But if he's under center on 1st down, they're running." Amazing. When a nerdy, armchair DC like me can figure this out, it means that the Niners' OC (and the rest of the offensive coaches) committed an epic fail.

Re-re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 2 coaching fails = 49ers loss.

BOTTOM LINE

Aside from specific epic fails, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Seahawks:

They did something no other team had done against SEA this season: Lose despite their OFF utterly dominating SEA's DEF.
Battle's fumble gave SEA's OFF life after the Niners' DEF was utterly dominating them on 1st down.
A blown PI call nullified the Niner OFF's utter domination of SEA's DEF in the 1st quarter.
Total matchup meltdown in red zone pass DEF, the initial catalyst of which was Battle's fumble putting the pass DEF in a position to fail.
Poor gameplanning by the offensive coaches rendered Gore relatively nonexistent in the passing game.
Poor "self-scouting" by the offensive coaches rendered the 49ers' run and pass tendencies transparent, which thereby nullified their massive shotgun advantage.

The first sentence of my SF/SEA matchup preview was, "Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort." It turns out I was exactly right from a matchup perspective: losing these matchups was a total team effort. Offensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., Gore fumble), defensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., red zone pass DEF fails), and a special teams player (who should be taking the next "special" bus out of town) even found a way to contribute to non-ST matchup fails - he's that talented! Throw on top of that the contribution of offensive coaches, and you have the anatomy of a "what could have been" loss.

Thanks for another kick in the junk, guys.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON why the 49ers repeatedly lose games they should win?

Golden Nuggets: Guess I gotta face it sometime..

Ninjames — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

Good morning, folks! Sorry I've been sketchy on the links but I've been keeping busy, to be sure! Thanks to Fooch again for covering for me. Still, I had to sleep early for a good cause. If you're wondering what it is, make sure to come on over to this site tomorrow morning at 7 AM PT, I should have my post up by then. All I can say is it was a very positive experience for me. That being said it has been nice to be deterred from say, the current 49ers team but I suppose I have to look at this season at some point. I'm done crying over it, to be honest. This team needs to finish strong, someone told me that over the phone yesterday, and it's true. Very true, I'm looking for as strong a finish as possible and improvement from Alex Smith so we know what we have going into the 2010 season. This isn't a bad team we've got here, we have too many good players to just waste that talent. Best I can do is look forward to Monday Night and hope I don't leave Candlestick disappointed. That would seriously suck. Here's your links.

And so retires my favorite 49er of the last ten years--Jeff Ulbrich. He has nothing left to prove for 49er fans, a great player and a great guy. (PressDemocrat.com)

So it seems Great America is suing the city of Santa Clara, claiming the stadium deal is illegal as per their agreement with the theme park. (ESPN.com)

The 49ers placed Kentwan Balmer on IR and signed a replacement, Baraka Atkins. As previously a huge fan of the MK series, man this guy is setting himself up to make me very disappointed. Still, I actually think he could be good. (PressDemocrat.com)

The 49ers are the only team that can stop the Cardinals from getting into the playoffs now. Not sure that it will happen... (NBCBayArea.com)

There was plenty of reasons the 49ers released Allen Rossum, I fully support the release. I don't, however, support using Arnaz Battle on them. That man is useless. I want him gone, forever. Am I bitter? Heck. Yes. (SFGate.com)

Alex Smith is seizing control down the home stretch. I certainly hope he's changed for sure. (SacBee.com)

Maiocco has his every-player review from the loss against Seattle. (PressDemocrat.com)

"Drops Drop 49ers From Playoff Race." How creative. (SFGate.com)

Well this is depressing. 49ers playoff drought is among the longest in the NFL. (MercuryNews.com)

A look ahead at the Monday Night game against the Cardinals. (49ers.com)

Coach Singletary is taking the blame for the fumbled punt return. (SFGate.com)

He also has a list of grievances for the NFL. (SFGate.com)

Andy Lee: Hitting His Stride. (49ers.com)

49ers return game: Putting the "special" in special teams

Fooch — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:00:28 -0000

Hopefully nobody takes offense to "special." I came close to posting a short bus graphic because that's how far Brandon Jones and Arnaz Battle have pushed me. As ugly as yesterday's game was, the biggest momentum change aside from Gore's fumble was probably the screwed up reverse attempt on the first quarter punt. The 49ers had the Seahawks on the ropes and could have sent them to the canvas on that drive. Instead, the drive doesn't even start and Seattle gets the shortest of fields to convert a touchdown.

As much as that reverse bugged folks, the special teams woes go beyond just that one bad play call. Special teams encompasses kicking, punting, returning, and coverage associated with all of that. For the purposes of this post, we'll ignore kicking and punting, because Andy Lee is God and Joe Nedney is sufficiently reliable as the kicker. Rather, I wanted to focus on the return game. I don't even know if you could call it a return game when you're either losing yards or fumbling the return.

Before getting into the ugly, I would like to say that I think Josh Morgan could be on the verge of entrenching himself as one of the team's primary kickoff return men. He's only returned 5 kicks, but he's put together a solid early body of work. His five returns have resulted in 174 yards, good for an average of 34.8. One return was for 76 yards, but his remaining four returns have still been solid enough. While touchdowns in the return game are great, it's really simply a matter of getting some decent starting field position. Thus far, Josh Morgan has done that on a consistent basis. The final four games will hopefully help us determine if he can become a long term return option.

The same cannot be said for the punt return game. I don't think it's even good enough to call it bad. At this point, the best term would probably be abysmal. Arnaz Battle did have a 31 yard return, but it was negated by a block in the back call against everyone's favorite pariah, Mark Roman. The 49ers final punt return numbers yesterday? 5 punts for -3 yards. Really?

I know people have been complaining about the release of Allen Rossum. While he was awesome last year, clearly the team saw a reason to get rid of him, and were somewhat justified by the Cowboys also releasing him. That's not the best reasoning, but it'll have to do for now. However, the point of this post is to consider how the 49ers can improve their punt return game going forward. Battle struggled mightily yesterday, but part of that was due to not getting much in the way of blocking in front of him.

I'm not arguing for bringing Battle back in 2010, but I also think there are other issues to consider. Rather, it seems like the team needs an influx of talent that goes beyond just the return men. Would that be a few low profile signings in free agency? Guys that excel in special teams work (aside from returners) tend to be rather low profile, so I can't see the signings generating a lot of buzz. Honestly, I'm not sure how the team can best go about approaching this in the offseason. Any thoughts?

49ers-Seahawks: Final Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:00:31 -0000

We've got the final injury report with one somewhat surprising addition. RB Justin Forsett was a full participant in practice today but is now listed as questionable because of a quad injury. Julius Jones is certainly no scrub, but given recent performances, if Forsett is limited or out on Sunday I'd be a much happier camper. Even when Forsett was shut down in the rushing attack at Minnesota, he still contributed big as a receiver. I'm glad the former Cal star is developing into a solid NFL running back, but I'd prefer he take a week off and not burn the 49ers.

After the jump we've got Coach Mike Singletary's post-practice press conference transcript.

49ers
Out
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)

Doubtful
OT Joe Staley (knee)
DT Kentwan Balmer (shoulder)

Questionable
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
CB Marcus Hudson (back)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)

Probable
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
LB Ahmad Brooks (thumb)
WR Brandon Jones (thumb)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
DT Ray McDonald (shoulder)
RB Michael Robinson (shoulder)
OT Adam Snyder (shoulder)

Seahawks
Doubtful
LB D.D. Lewis (knee)
DT Cory Redding (concussion)

Questionable
RB Justin Forsett (quad)
DE Lawrence Jackson (groin)

Probable
RB Julius Jones (chest)
C Chris Spencer (thumb)

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Practice - December 4, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statements:

"Good afternoon. In terms of injuries, [CB] Marcus Hudson, questionable; [LT] Joe Staley, questionable; [CB] Nate Clements, out. I think everybody else is about what it was."

On LB Takeo Spikes' status:

"Takeo, game-time.

[Bob Lange: ‘It's actually doubtful.']

Singletary: Did I say doubtful?

[Lange: ‘You said questionable.']

Singletary: Doubtful. Sorry."

On how Staley is progressing:

"He's working. Working out and squatting. He's getting excited. So, hopefully it all works out."

On whether it gets more difficult because opposing teams are expecting more of a spread look:

"I think it really comes down to executing. You can change to any kind of offense you want to be, but if it's not effective, than it's not going to force it to be any more difficult for them. I think when you execute running the ball, when you execute throwing the ball, now that's when you make it more difficult for coordinators and teams to prepare."

On whether he gets the sense that opposing defenses are still keying RB Frank Gore as the No. 1 priority:

"I would think so. I would think if you look at Frank and what he's been able to do when he has been able to run, the possibility is always there, and you don't want to really let him get started. So, I would think that would be the first thought."

On whether the players understand the sense of urgency going into a must-win game on Sunday:

"We'll see on Sunday. We'll see Sunday. I think they do, but we'll find out."

On whether Seattle being healthier now presents more of a challenge than earlier this season:

"As you go through the year, guys are hurt, guys are up. We still have guys hurt. So, that's the nature of the game. You just go out there and play the game as best you can, and, hopefully, the No. 2 guys that you have, when they do have to play, that's what it's all about. The 53 guys that you have, they're supposed to be the best that you can get. So, hopefully, that next group of player that you have in there, you don't make excuses and say, ‘Well, we didn't have this guy. We didn't have that guy.' It's part of the game."

On whether it's frustrating as a coach that you can't practice tackling during the week:

"Tackling is more of an attitude than anything else. I believe that if you want to tackle somebody, you can, and you'll find a way to get them down. And, that's really what it comes down to."

On whether he is at a point where he is looking at the standings and trying to figure out what he needs to do to get to where he wants to by the end of the season:

"I'm just looking at winning. That's all. I don't try to be real good at math, I just try to really focus on what's really important because to me, if you're playing well, that's vitally important that you begin to - it's that team at this time of the year that begins to gain the momentum, begins to play better and begins to have a sense of urgency when they're playing. It's that team that's going to make it anyway. It's very important that you focus on winning games and being consistent down the stretch. I think that's what we're focused on. All of the other stuff about who wins and who loses and how many wins do we need, if we're focusing on that, then that's not good."

On how he felt about the week of practice:

"I felt it was a good week. It wasn't great. But, I don't think it's ever great, but it was a good, good week."

49ers-Jaguars: The World According to Madden

Fooch — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:00:27 -0000

Fooch's Note: This post was written by mountaindew77 and I am posting it for him.

Hello Niners Nation. After a hectic week last week, I was unable to get the Madden simulation done. Thankfully, we have our good man Ninjames and he was able to fill in and do it. But now I'm back and hopefully I will be able to get it done each week from here on out. So here is how this works. I make sure I have downloaded the most updated rosters, I check the injury report and only take out the players from the depth chart that are going to miss the game for sure. I also update the depth charts according to how they are in the real NFL.

The game is Madden 10 for the PS3. I set up this week's matchup in Madden with 14 minute quarters and 25 second clock run-off for a more realistic amount of plays. I set the difficulty on All-Madden, sit back, and watch the matchup and give you guys a play-by-play. Let's get this thing started.

1^st Quarter

Niners win the toss and elect to receive. Robinson returns from 5 yards deep in the end zone and gets it out to the 49er 20 yard line where the Niners will start their first drive. The first play from scrimmage is a pitch to Gore to the right who gets dragged down by Justin Durant for no gain. On 2^nd down Smith drops back and feels pressure quick, but dumps off to Gore on a designed screen and Gore makes the first tackler miss and has room breaks it for a 24 yard gain to the 44 and a Niners first down. Crabs and Morgan are lined up out left Gore is the single back on the next play. Smith drops back throws a short curl route to Morgan who gets tackled immediately for only a 2 yard gain. The next play we see Smith drop back out of a 4 WR set but gets sacked almost instantly and it's now 3rd and 12. Smith drops back and again almost gets sacked, but dumps off to Gore once again on a designed screen. Gore has room, gets a couple nice blocks, makes a spin move to make a guy miss, but gets dragged down just 1 yard short of the 1st and the Niners have to punt. Andy Lee kicks it into the endzone for the touchback.

David Garrard drops back on the Jaguars first play from scrimmage and delivers a nice pass to Mike Sims-Walker over the middle who has room to run and does for a 27 yard gain. Garrard found a hole in the 49ers zone defense. From his own 47, Maurice Jones-Drew gets the handoff on the stretch play to the right but Michael Lewis comes up from the secondary and stops him for only a 3 yard gain. MJD gets the ball up the middle for another 3 yard gain before he gets tackled by Isaac Sopoaga. 3rd and 4. Spencer with the very light coverage leaves Sims Walker able to catch an easy pass and run for a 15 yard gain and another 1st down to the 31 yard line. Jones-Drew up the middle bounces off a couple tacklers and fights for a 9 yard gain. MJD gets it up the middle again but this time Manny Lawson breaks through and stuffs him for no gain. A big 3rd and 1 coming up. Garrard drops back to pass and Marcedes Lewis is covered by Lawson who cannot keep up with him and Garrard finds him for a 19 yard gain and the Jags are at the 49er 3 yard line. Jaguars come out in the goal line formation. Rashad Jennings gets the handoff and appears to be stopped, but no one seems to want to tackle him. He cuts out to the right and runs in for the touchdown. 7-0 Jaguars

Coffee kneels down in the endzone on the kickoff for the touchback. Smith drops back on first down, gets all day to throw, doesn't like what he sees, and scrambles. But he slides down to avoid getting hit for a 2 yard loss and a Jaguars sack. Gore gets the ball up the middle, but finds nowhere to run, no gain. Niners come out in the Shotgun, 4WR set. Smith gets good blocking again from the line, but again cannot find an open receiver. He proceeds to chuck it down field, but gets hit as he throws. Gore almost catches the lob, but it gets knocked down. A three-and-out for the 49er offense.

Lee with a decent punt, but the Niners punt coverage cannot get to Witherspoon and he gets a 15 yard return. Ball on the 49er 47. Niners blitz one corner on each side, and Garrard can only throw the ball away. MJD up the middle on 2nd down, but Lewis stuffs him for just a 2 yard gain. On 3rd and 8 Garrard drops back feels almost immediate pressure from Manny Lawson, and throws it quickly to Torry Holt on the left side but Dre Bly with the blanket coverage knocks it down. A three-and-out for the Jaguars.

Adam Podlesh punts it into the endzone for a touchback and the Niners start on the 20. Niners once again line up in the Shotgun, 4WR formation, with 2 WR's on each side. The Jags drop back in zone coverage, Smith throws a bullet to Crabs on the quick read for an 18 yard gain and a 1st down. Out of the Singleback 3WR, Smith drops back splits the defenders, and finds Arnaz Battle on a crossing route over the middle for a nice 14 yard gain and a first down. Ball on the Jacksonville 48. Smith drops back again, gets great protection, but can't find a receiver and throws it away. On 2nd down Smith has Delanie Walker behind the defense, but throws a terrible ball way short and way behind him. Justin Durant turns around and picks it off with ease and returns it to midfield.

David Garrard drops back and throws it out to the left for Holt, but Bly has him blanketed yet again, he turns around and jumps for the pick! The Niners get the ball back right away.

Niners ball on their own 42. Gore up the middle, shakes off 2 defenders and runs for a gain of 4. Out of the Shotgun, Gore gets the draw, finds room out to the left, sheds a tackler, and has no one to stop him. He is finally met by Reggie Nelson, but he shakes him off too and is finally brought down at the 13 after a beautiful 41 yard run! What a way to end the 1st quarter!

2^nd Quarter

Gore gets the ball up the middle on the dive play for a 2 yard gain. Smith tosses out to Gore out right, but the Jags are not fooled and stuff Gore as soon as he catches it for a 5 yard loss. 3rd and 12 at the 15. Smith drops back, has Gore open on the screen, but gets hit as he throws and the ball falls incomplete. The Niners disappointingly settle for a Joe Nedney field goal. 7-3 Jaguars

Witherspoon catches the kickoff at the 3, and returns to the Jacksonville 34. Jones-Drew on the stretch to the left, but Takeo Spikes stuffs him for a 1 yard loss. Garrard feels pressure from Spikes on 2nd down and has to throw the ball away quickly. 3rd and 11. Garrard finds Holt on the in route for 11 yards, and after a measurement, it's a Jacksonville 1st down. Gotta love that 3rd down 49er defense. MJD finds a hole up the middle for a 10 yard gain and yet another 1st down. MJD with a run, cuts to the left and gets a 3 yard gain. Niners bring the house on 2nd down, and Garrard just gets the ball off before getting pummeled by Haralson. The ball floats downfield intended for Mike Thomas, but Dashon Goldson catches up to the lobbed pass and nearly makes the pick but it bounces off his hand. 3rd and 7 at the 49er 41. Garrard drops back, throws it to MJD on the screen to the left, and sees daylight. He gets all the way down to the 10 before getting brought down by Lewis. Garrard hands off to Jennings up the middle who gets stuffed by Spikes for no gain. Garrard drops back, and the Niners drop back in zone coverage. He thinks he has Thomas wide open for the TD, but he doesn't see Spikes drop back into coverage, and he picks it off at the goal line! He is forced to bring it out, and the Niners start at their own 3. What a drive for Takeo Spikes.

Gore with the stretch to the left for a 5 yard gain. Gore gets the handoff, cuts out right, finds a hole, shakes off Reggie Nelson, has no one in front of him, and never looks back! He... could... go... all... the... way!! Touchdown 49ers on the 91 yard run by Gore! 10-7 49ers

Witherspoon returns from the 1, and poor kick coverage yet again. Jaguars starts on their 35. MJD gets the hand off, but Sopoaga breaks through the line and stuffs him for a 1 yard loss. MJD with another run, and this time no one is there to stuff him and he gets an 8 yard gain. 3rd and 3 on their own 42. MJD gets the ball up the middle, sees a gap, but it closes quickly and Franklin/ Spikes drag him down for only a 1 yard gain. 4th and 2 and a three-and-out for the 49er defense.

Jones on the return gets the ball to the 24. 5 minutes remaining in the half. Smith takes a 7-step drop, stands in the same spot for about 7 seconds, and gets sacked by Terrance Knighton. Out of the 4 WR spread single back formation Smith drops back, Crabs has his man beat by a good 5 steps, but Smith feels the pressure and overthrows him by a mile. 3rd and 18 at the 16. Out of the Shotgun, Smith gets good protection again but cannot find an open man, so he dumps off to Gore who gets tackled as soon as he catches it for no gain. Three-and-out.

Jacksonville starts on their own 48. Garrard drops back, finds Marcedes Lewis over the middle for a 12 yard gain and a first down. MJD gets a nice 6 yard gain up the middle. MJD on the toss breaks a tackle, finds room and breaks it for an 8 yard gain and a first down to the 49er 26. The clock runs down to the 2 minute warning. MJD runs to the left for a 7 yard gain. Garrard drops back and sees Willis coming at him unblocked. Afraid for his life, he throws the ball away but still takes the hit from Bam Bam. 3rd and 3 at the 18. Garrard out of the shotgun finds Thomas on the quick pass for a 9 yard gain and a 1st down at the 9. Garrard drops back, Lawson sheds a defender, gets pressure on Garrard and he throws it out of the end zone incomplete. Lawson punished him though as the 49ers have been doing this whole first half. Jennings up the middle for 1 yard. On 3rd and goal from the 8, Garrard finds Thomas wide open in the back of the end zone who makes a nice leaping catch for the TD. 14-10 Jaguars

With 1:03 on the clock the Niners start on their own 25. They come out in a shotgun, and it appears they will try and get a quick score before the half. Smith hits Gore up the middle for a 13 yard catch. Smith gets hit as he throws and it falls incomplete. Smith overthrows Jones for an incomplete pass. On 3rd down Smith finds Battle down the left sideline, but he fails to get both feet in and it is ruled incomplete. 4th down and a three-and-out.

Jaguars start at their 30 with :33 left, and will run out the clock to the 2nd half with a handoff to MJD.

Halftime thoughts

So far it has been a back and forth game. Gore has had 2 huge plays and that is what has given the Niners all 10 of their points. The defense came up big in the red zone with that Spikes INT which likely would have been more points for the Jags. Garrard is feeling pressure almost every time he's dropped back to pass and has taken a beating so far. Despite that, the Niners defense cannot make plays on 3rd down when they need them and it has cost them the lead. On the other side, the O Line has been playing surprisingly well, but Smith has not taken advantage of it well enough. Gore has though, racking up 139 rushing yards already and 188 total yards. He is once again the one man offense of the 49ers.

3^rd Quarter

Jaguars get the ball to start on their own 31. The Niners special teams has played subpar today. MJD gets the ball up the middle, and Lawson finally brings him down after breaking 2 tackles and getting a tough 4 yard gain. Garrard finally gets some protection and time and finds Lewis out to the left for a 16 yard gain and they are at the 49er 49 yard line. Once again Lewis gets open and catches a 12 yard 1st down pass. MJD gets the toss to the right, but Willis is just too fast and chases him down for no gain. MJD up the middle and finds a huge hole for a 10 yard gain and yet another Jags first down. Ball at the 49er 27. Garrard splits two defenders with a pass to Holt, but he gets hit as he catches it and the ball pops out incomplete. Garrard drops back and hands off on the draw to Jennings for a 4 yard gain. 3rd and 6. Garrard gets plenty of time, and finds MJD on the streak route down the right side wide open and Spencer can't keep up with him and it's an easy catch for a TD. 21-10 Jaguars

Coffee gets hammered on the return and the Niners start on the 27. 3 WR Singleback set and Vernon Davis catches the patented pass over the shoulder for a nice 15 yard gain and a first down. The Niners spread out in a 4WR formation and Smith gets good protection which gives Davis time to get open on a deep post route and catches another pass, this time for 24 yards and the Niners are in Jacksonville territory. Ball on the 34. On the play action to Gore, Smith gets it out quickly to Moran Norris on a 4 yard catch. On 2nd down, Smith connects with Morgan who gets his first catch today on a short slant route for 6 yards and just enough for the first. Ball on the Jaguars 23. Another play action to Gore and on the same play, Norris gets another catch on the screen route and runs for an 8 yard gain. On 2nd and 2, Davis comes in motion to the right, Gore gets the handoff, breaks one tackle and sprawls the ball out across the first down marker as he gets dragged down. First down Niners and they are knocking on the door at the 13. Smith gets all day as the Jags only bring 2 rushers but he still cannot find a man and throws it incomplete on a pass intended for Gore on the curl route. Gore gets the ball on the draw, and finds a hole and fights his way for a 7 yard gain. 3rd and 3 at the 6. Smith on the play action stretch to Coffee, he rolls out to the right. He finds Davis wide open in the end zone... Touchdown Niners!!! It's called the Vernon Zone for a reason. The 9ers line up to go for 2, in hopes of bringing it within a field goal. In the I-Formation, Coffee gets the ball up the middle, gets met at the goal line, but he got the ball across the plane! 21-18 Jaguars

Witherspoon returns to the 21 as the Niners finally get good special teams coverage. MJD gets dragged down by Lawson and Willis for a 2 yard gain. Garrard takes a 3 step drop and throws to Sims-Walker on the hot read who runs for a 15 yard gain to the 37. Out of the shotgun, Garrard throws out to Thomas on the short slant, but he did not get 2 feet in and it's ruled incomplete. On 2nd down, Marcedes Lewis burns Michael Lewis and gets wide open and with some nice YAC, gets the ball to the 49er 35 on a 28 yard completion. On first down Garrard throws to Mike Thomas on the out route. He has a step on Haralson, but he under throws him and Parys jumps the route and picks it off! He then gets the ball back into Jacksonville territory to the 38. That is Garrard's 3rd interception thrown this game.

Niners in 4WR Shotgun formation, it's a draw to Gore who gets pummeled for a 5 yard loss. Smith gets hit as he throws on 2nd down and almost gets picked off but it's dropped. On 3rd down out of the shotgun, Smith has all day to throw, throws it for Battle, but it is a terrible decision as it's thrown into heavy coverage and Witherspoon picks it off, and no one is in front of him to stop him from going all the way and getting the pick-6. 28-18 Jaguars

Robinson on the return to the 27. Handoff up the middle to Gore who gets 8 yards. 2 WR set Smith drops back hits an open Walker out to the left for an 8 yard gain and a first down. With just 4 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, Smith drops back and hits Battle over the middle in tight coverage who gets brought down right away for a 7 yard gain.

4^th Quarter

Niners out of the shotgun, 3 WR set and Smith hits Battle yet again who's wide open over the middle for a 12 yard gain. The ball is now on the JAX 37. Out of the shotgun, Smith throws to Crabs who has his man beat downfield, but it's underthrown and gets knocked down. Smith hits Battle over the middle again for an 8 yard gain. 3rd and 2 on the 30, Niners in Shotgun, Smith drops back, has Vernon downfield open, but he gets hit just as he throws and lobs it up and the ball gets knocked down by Reggie Nelson. Joe Nedney kicks, the ball hits the upright, and barely falls through. 28-21 Jaguars with 12:30 left in the game.

Witherspoon returns the kick to the 29. MJD with a 2 yard run up the gut. Garrard drops back, can't find a WR, and gets sacked by Lawson. On 3rd and 14, the Jags don't want to take any chances and give the ball to MJD who gets 2 yards and the Jags have to punt on the three-and-out.

Brandon Jones gets a 5 yard return to the 34. Gore rushes up the middle for 5 yards. Out of the Taser, Gore gets the direct snap and gets stuffed for 1 yard... On 3rd and 4, Smith throws into double coverage for Davis and it is nearly picked off. What would we do without that Taser?

Jacksonville starts on their 36. Garrard to Greg Jones on the flat route for 7 yards. MJD on the draw, but Lawson meets him 4 yards in the backfield for a nice stuff. 3rd and 7. Garrard out of the shotgun, has a man over the middle, but Spikes sneaks in there in the zone and bats it away for a much needed big 3rd down play. 7:25 remaining after the three-and-out.

Jones returns the punt to the 22. Gore up the middle, sheds 2 guys, and gets 6 yards. Niners in the bunch formation on 2nd and 4, Smith drops back, and it's a draw play to Gore. Gore fights his way for 4 yards and after a measurement, it's a Niners first down! About 6 minutes remaining. Ball on their own 33. Smith gets all day, steps up in the pocket, but holds on for entirely too long and gets sacked for a 4 yard loss. On 2nd and 14 Gore gets a hand off, sees no holes in the line, and breaks out to the right. He leaps over a downed defender and makes a nice gain out of nothing for 13 yards. On 3rd and 1, we see the Taser again. Gore with the direct snap up the middle, and he barely gets the first. Niners ball on their own 43. Coffee with a run on first down up the gut for 3. 3 WR Singleback, Coffee gets another handoff towards the right for a 1 yard gain. Only 3 minutes remaining and a big 3rd and 6 coming up. It's a 4WR set with Davis split out with Jones and Morgan out to the left and Crabs on the right. Play action to Gore, Smith rolls out left, throws a deep pass to Morgan who has his man beat... and he comes down with it! He gets tackled by Nelson as he does and it's the Niners ball at the Jacksonville 24 with 2:10 remaining. Smith drops back and throws it to Gore on the flat route to the right and he gets brought down after a 6 yard gain. That brings us to the 2 minute warning and the Niners are officially in the Vernon Zone. We see another 4 WR singleback set, Smith throws it to Morgan on the short out route, but he cannot get his right foot in bounds, and the refs rule it incomplete. 3rd and 4. Out of the gun, Smith hits Davis on the curl route, who appears about to be brought down short of the first, but he trucks the guy, runs, and trucks yet another defender and runs all the way down to the 3 where he is brought down! Davis comes up big in his zone. Niners come up in the hurry up, for some reason. There is still about 1:40 on the clock. Out of the gun, Smith tries to throw, but gets hit as he does and it falls incomplete about 1 yard in front of him. Clock stopped at 1:32. Niners in the Split back formation. Smith drops back, Jags with the blitz, but Smith sees Jones over the middle running free...and hits him for the touchdown!!! Joe Nedney hits the game tying extra point and it's all square at 28! The Jags still have 1:29 left on the clock though.

Jennings on the return to the 27. 1:23 after the kickoff and all 3 timeouts. Garrard drops back, hits Sims-Walker in tight coverage on the curl route for 12 yards and a first. In the hurry up, the Jags in shotgun, Garrard catches the snap over his head, nearly gets sacked by Willis, but he just got the ball off as it falls incomplete. 1:05 left on 2nd and 10. Garrard drops back, gets very good protection from his line, and throws a very deep ball. It's a lobber though, and the Spikes has time to get back and swat the pass intended for Thomas. 3rd and 10. Garrard throws a quick pass over the middle, Willis jumps the route, and nearly picks it off for what surely would have been a game winning INT. The Jags have to punt with :53 remaining.

Brandon Jones on the return. He trucks one guy and gets a decent return to the Niner 36 with :43 left. Do they play for OT or try and score? They do have all 3 timeouts. It appears they choose the latter as they come out in the shotgun. Davis in motion to the left... Alex throws it for Morgan who jumps up for the catch, but it bounces off his hands. 2nd and 10. Niners in shotgun again. Smith drops way back, throws it very deep before he gets hit, but just as Garrard's pass, it's a lobber and it gets knocked down. Intended for Battle. :32 remaining. Niners come out in the Gun again for one more try for this first down. Smith dumps it off to Gore over the middle, who gets stopped 6 yards short and the Jags call a timeout. Witherspoon returns the punt to the JAX 25.

On 1st and 10, it's a false start on the Jags. 1st and 15 from the 20, and they just hand off to MJD who gets stopped for no gain, and they let the clock run out and we're headed to overtime!

Overtime

The Jags win the toss and get the ball first. Witherspoon returns the kickoff to the 27. Garrard hits Sims-Walker on the quick pass for an 18 yard gain and they're on their own 45. Another quick pass this time to the right to Lewis, who has a 15 yard gain, another first down, and he has now passed 100 yards receiving on the day. Ball on the Niner 41. Out of the gun, Garrard throws the slant route to Jones who runs out of bounds after 6 yards. 2^nd and 4. Garrard dances around in the pocket, no pressure at all. After seeing nothing, he scrambles up the middle. But he doesn't slide, and instead he takes a HUGE hit from Patrick Willis, and he fumbles! Parys Haralson picks it up and the Niners have possession! Ball on the Jaguars 35.

Smith hands off to Gore up the middle for a 3 yard gain. Gore again up the middle for 5 yards. 3rd and a little more than 1 on the 44. Gore fights up the middle for a nice 3 yard gain and a first down. Gore up the middle for a 2 yard gain to the 49. 2nd and 8. On the screen play, Smith gets smashed as he throws and the ball flies up and nearly gets picked off by Daryl Smith. 3rd and 9. In the gun, Davis moves from the TE spot and motions out to the left next to Morgan. Smith takes the snap, has Crabs on a deep out post route, but he waited a bit too long as he catches it out of bounds. 4th and 9.

Lee punts it into the end zone. Play action to MJD, who goes out for a curl route, catches the pass, but then gets plowed by Bam Bam but holds on for an 8 yard gain. MJD up the middle on 2nd and 2 for 3 yards and a first down. Garrard with the fake to MJD, throws it out left, but Bly comes up and knocks it down. 2nd and 10. Out of the gun, Garrard gets the snap, has some time, and throws a deep ball. Thomas is the intended receiver and somehow got matched up with Parys Haralson who just can't keep up and has no help from a safety. Thomas comes down with the wide open catch on a perfectly placed pass, and has room to run, and he does. Touchdown Jags on the 69 yard TD reception. What a heartbreaker. Jaguars win 34-28

Post Game Stats

JAX - 7 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 6 - 34

SF - 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 0 - 28

Jacksonville -- Stat - San Francisco

448 - Total Offense - 423

95 - Rushing Yards - 197

353 - Passing Yards - 226

18 - First Downs - 16

4 - Turnovers - 2

7-12 (58%) - 3^rd Down - 5-15 (33%)

34:12 - TOP - 32:51

Alex Smith -- 65.6 RTG 22-42 (52%) 241 YDS 2 TD 2 INT David Garrard - 82.9 RTG 20-36 (55%) 359 YDS 3 TD 3 INT

Frank Gore - 22 ATT 195 YDS (8.8 YPC) | 6 REC 59 YDS Maurice Jones-Drew - 24 ATT 81 YDS (3.3 YPC) | 3 REC 61 YDS 1 TD

Arnaz Battle -- 4 REC 41 YDS Marcedes Lewis - 6 REC 101 YDS

Brandon Jones/Vernon Davis- 1 REC TD Mike Thomas -- 3 REC 86 YDS 2 TD

Manny Lawson - 5 TK (3 TFL) 2 Sacks Terrance Knighton - 5 TKL (3 TFL) 2 Sacks

Takeo Spikes - 4 TKL 1 INT 3 knockdowns Justin Durant - 8 TKL (1 TFL) 1 INT

Dre Bly/Parys Haralson -1 INT Brian Witherspoon - 2 TKL 1 INT (TD)

Post-Game Thoughts
Well this game definitely did not disappoint as far as exciting goes. These teams were back and forth all game trading blow for blow. But even 256 total yards from Frank Gore, containment of Maurice Jones-Drew for the most part, and 4 turnovers from Garrard could not lead the Niners to a victory in this one. The defense did not make plays when they needed to in key situations; mainly on 3rd down and the offense could not take advantage of the chances Garrard was giving them left and right. The big plays made the difference in this one, and the Jags had just one too many. Let's hope tomorrow brings us a different result.

49ers-Jaguars: Final Injury Report

Fooch — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 15:00:13 -0000

Not a whole lot of shockers in the final injury report, although we get confirmation that Michael Robinson will more than likely miss out on the game. Doubtful means 75% chance the player won't play. Safe to say no Robinson. So does that mean we'll get a bit more Josh Morgan in the return game? I've attached Coach Singletary's press conference from yesterday, but there's no mention of the return game.

For those wondering, Morgan does have some return experience back in college. His senior year he returned 16 kicks for 276 yards (long of 34). It's nothing spectacular, but better than nothing. We'll see how this plays out on Sunday.

49ers
Out
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)
OT Joe Staley (knee)

Doubtful
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
RB Michael Robinson (concussion)

Questionable
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)

Probable
G David Baas (ankle)
CB Tarell Brown (knee)
CB Marcus Hudson (back)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
S Reggie Smith (abdomen)
OT Adam Snyder (shoulder)
S Curtis Taylor (knee)
LB Patrick Willis (shoulder)

Jaguars
Out
CB Rashean Mathis (groin)

Probable
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee)
WR Mike Sims-Walker (knee)

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Practice - November 27, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On the status of LB Takeo Spikes:

"It's going to be a game time [decision]. He tried to practice a little bit today. We didn't have him overexert himself, but he looked pretty good. We'll see come game time."

On who takes over the leadership role on defense when Spikes is not in the lineup:

"I think [LB] Patrick [Willis] is doing a much better job. I think that Takeo and Pat work really well together, and I think that when Takeo is not there, that Pat has to pick it up a bit. [LB] Matt Wilhelm is still trying to get used to doing it, but hopefully this week Takeo steps up and is ready to go. I'll keep my fingers crossed for that."

On whether having Takeo Spikes out against Green Bay constituted to the yardage gained by Packers RB Ryan Grant:

"I'm sure that it had something to do with it, a little bit. I wouldn't go there and say, ‘well, he wasn't there,' no, I wouldn't go there. Certainly, continuity is big and Takeo really helps Pat out a lot, he really does, so he's a great asset to us."

On the challenge of containing Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew:

"It's a big challenge because you've got a huge offensive line, and next thing you know, he just comes out of nowhere. He hides really well behind them, so we really have our work cut out for us this week. They are a power team and he's a powerful runner. He's an effective guy, so we definitely have our hands full this week."

On whether he recollects having problems tackling diminutive runners when he played in the NFL:

"I would say for me - I was kind of small too, so it wasn't a big problem for me. For the linebackers, it shouldn't be a big issue. For our guys, we don't have huge guys, I think that Pat and Takeo should be just fine. The defensive linemen have to bend a little bit more to find him."

On Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew performance in short-yardage situations:

"He's a good back aside from being a shorter guy. I would say that's the only difference - he's a shorter guy, not a smaller guy. He's really compact and he keeps his legs moving behind that pile, and I'll tell you what now, the offensive line does a great job of pulling him forward. So I think that we have to reevaluate that rule before the game, but the offensive line does a great job of pulling him right along with them so that helps too."

On whether a sneak play against Green Bay should have been raised as an issue with the league:

"It should have been. The whole sneak thing when guys are pulling you forward - it should be, but I guess they don't enforce it that much, but we'll have to look at that."

On any other personnel moves to be made prior to Sunday's contest against Jacksonville:

"No."

On talking to the referees pre-game concerning the sneak plays:

"It's not really a big thing, we just have to mention things that could possibly come up in a game. Things that you see on film, those are just little things that you communicate to the referees before the game so they can look at it prior [to the game]."

On whether sneak plays are done by hitting a runner forward or pulling him forward:

"There are time when it's kind of like rugby - he's in there and they're just pushing, shoving, pulling, and the whole nine yards. They do a good job of blocking, it's not like they're cheating.They're working and they're doing what they have to do. I think that it's going to be up to us to do everything that we can do to stop them, but they do a good job of blocking for him."

On whether he agrees with offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye's assessment of QB Alex Smith maturation and assertiveness:

"Oh yeah, I think that I've been saying the same thing. I haven't quite gotten to excellent yet, but I would say that only because I haven't used that word. But I think that Alex Smith is making really good progress. I think that we're all thankful that he's making the progress that he's making, so hopefully we just continue to go forward with that. If he can continue to get better from week to week, it helps us that much more trying to get where we need to go."

On what hasn't Alex Smith done in order to make progress:

"I would say, if I had to point to one thing, whenever you look at a quarterback, it's all about winning. I think that you could say that it's kind of like your team, ‘Whoa man, we're playing hard, we're doing this, we're doing that....did you win the game? No. Well, end of conversation.' So it's kind of like the same with the quarterback. We've had some good quarterbacks come through this league, but they didn't win, so we don't know a whole lot about them. So for Alex, I think that he just has to continue working, and also our team and everything else, and we just have to bring that thing together and win."

On his comments on Alex Smith being ‘meek' and how an NFL quarterback can be successful with that quality:

"It's kind of the whole thing with leadership. You hit that point, I just want to answer that question and make sure that I define him right. Are leaders born or are they made? I think both, but when I think about Alex Smith, when I was talking about meek, I should have used the word humble. He's a guy, he doesn't want to cause any problems. To me, he doesn't have the typical mentality of a quarterback, which is, ‘Hey, this is what I want.' He's not like that and that's thing that I like about him and I'm sure going forward, I'm see more and more assertiveness, I'm seeing more and more, ‘Coach I like this, I don't like that,' and those kinds of things so I think it's a tremendous asset for him to be a guy that is still willing to be molded, still willing to listen and it's not all of a sudden, he throws a couple of touchdowns and he's not all of a sudden the greatest quarterback in the world. He's still listening and I think that's great so going forward I think he's going to find his balance. We are on this side of it saying, ‘Come on, give us the information, let us know where you are, let us know what you are thinking,' and I think he has been on the other side saying, ‘I don't want to cause any problems, I don't want to make this about me, I want it to be about the team, I want it to be about the offense,' and I think that's been his mentality and that's been great and we are saying we love that, but come on, be the guy that says ‘this is what I want,' and we'll say, ‘Okay, we are going to go here, we're going to do that and this.' Now we are where we need to be in the communication area and I think we are getting there, I just think he needed permission to say, ‘That's okay for me to say, this is what I want, this is what I need.' The answer is absolutely yes. We need to know exactly what it is and he's doing that."

On that ‘jerk' quality in most quarterbacks:

"For lack of a another word, yes, I would say that, but there are some that I know that are, I would say are very clear and concise about what it is that they want and the great thing about Alex is I think he's such a bright guy that he can do a number of things and I think he's still finding out some of those things that he likes better than others because he hasn't played as long. To me, I think it's a tremendous advantage for him and us going forward, so he's not set in his ways and so I think that's a good thing."

On whether it's hard for the quarterback not to be the natural leader of the team given he is the only one talking in the huddle:

"The way that Alex Smith is thinking right now and all that I've seen, I think Alex Smith understands that at some point in time it has to be about his point of view, but from a team aspect."

On what kind of a challenge the Jaguars defense present for their offense on Sunday:

"I guess for me, when I look at their defense, you look at those big guys up front and they come off the ball, they do a good job and are big physical guys. Their DBs look like they are communicating well on the backend, I just think that we have to go out and just do what we do. I don't think that we have to try and think up anything else, just go out and execute the offense and hopefully, we can put it together early, hopefully we can execute early and find our niche, find our balance and just kind of move forward with that."

On whether he would like to see his cornerbacks play more aggressively this week:

"We have to. Last week, for whatever reason, there were times when we were way too far off and gave them a lot more cushion than we had talked about during the week. So, yes, definitely get up there and challenge them a lot more than we did last week."

49ers-Jaguars: Thursday Injury Report

Fooch — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 22:57:39 -0000

Hope everybody is having a good Thanksgiving. We've got our Thanksgiving open thread if you want to chat about any of today's games. I wanted to get this posted before the food coma completely overwhelmed me. We've got the injury report here, followed by OC Jimmy Raye's post-practice press conference transcript.

We had some interesting comments from Jimmy Raye, including the fact that Isaac Bruce will not be active Sunday and Brandon Jones will be. Jones will be backing up Crabtree at the X position, but will also be the spot guy when Morgan comes off the field. Also, the third question addresses the shotgun statistics. I'm curious what people will have to say about that.

49ers
Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)
OT Joe Staley (knee)

Did not Participate in Practice
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
DT Aubrayo Franklin (not injury related)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
RB Michael Robinson (shoulder)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)

Limited Participation in Practice
CB Marcus Hudson (back)

Full Participation in Practice
G David Baas (ankle)
CB Tarell Brown (knee)
S Reggie Smith (abdomen)
OT Adam Snyder (shoulder)
LB Patrick Willis (shoulder)
S Curtis Taylor (knee)

Jaguars
Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
CB Rashean Mathis (groin)

Full Participation in Practice
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee)
WR Mike Sims-Walker (knee)

OC Jimmy Raye's press conference transcript after the jump...

Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye
Post-Practice - November 26, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On which receivers play where with Isaac Bruce down:

"Basically, it gives Josh Morgan a transition when we go three-wide and that would bring Brandon Jones as the spot player. He would back up X. Jason Hill would be the back up Z. [Michael] Crabtree would stay at X. So, we would get the addition of Brandon Jones."

On who starts where:

"[Michael] Crabtree starts at X, [Josh] Morgan starts at Z. Jason Hill backs up Z. Brandon Jones backs up X. Then three wides, Josh transitions from Z to X and Jason Hill becomes the Z."

On why the statistics are better from the quarterback in the shotgun:

"I don't think that it is a coincidence. I know the time we did it, the score was 23-3. The quantity of the yards and quality of the yards has to be measured by the score and the time in the game. I don't think the formation per se had a whole lot to do with it. The fact that we were in a semi-rally mode because we were down by four scores had something to do with it. We converted third downs, which meant we got more plays. After the first drive in the game, we went three-and-out three straight times, and when we looked up, the score was 20-3, which totally changed the complexion of the game and the thought process and plan of the game. Then, the play prior to the two-minute warning, we could have kept them off the field on 3^rd-and-7 and we didn't convert. Then they went back and got another score to make it 23-3. So, there wasn't really any reason to be in ‘21' personnel and having the quarterback operating from under center. So, the score of the game and flavor of the game kind of dictated that. If you recall in that game, the first drive in that game, we were 3^rd and less than one in a position to score, and none of those plays were out of the gun. We missed and opted to kick the field goal to make the score 3-3. From that point on, offensively, it was downhill."

On whether the offense is in transition:

"I think this offense has been in transition since I've been here. You name a week that we haven't been in transition, from an injury standpoint, from a runner standpoint, a receiver standpoint, an offensive line standpoint. The thing we have been is in transition. I don't know what exactly your question is, in terms of this offense being in transition, but in terms of continuity and players, it's been a constant flow of transition."

On Alex's next step:

"I think Alex so far, his maturation in the 14 quarters, has been very good. I would anticipate going forward that as we improve in other areas of our play offensively, his growth will continue. He's become a little more assertive. You've got to remember that as he and the offense become more compatible and friendly, I think the less anxiety he'll have as he anticipates and knows the players he's playing with, and not thinking about the calls he makes, but he has internalized that. I am hopeful his growth and maturation will be something that will be very good."

On what he means by Alex being assertive and whether he tells him what he likes:

"I don't think that's a measure of assertion. He [Alex] plays and we coach. He has the opportunity to ‘red line' his wish list. The quarterbacks get a wish list at the beginning of every week. They get to list in priority the things they like and the things they don't like. They get to red line things they don't want or don't feel comfortable with, or they can suggest things they'd rather have. As I tell them and all of the players, it's democratic, but it's not 50-50 because they don't spend as much time looking at it or preparing as we do. So, their suggestions are all listened to, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll all be used. That's not just him, but that's all of the offensive players. His mannerisms and assertion, in terms of his leadership with the players he's in the huddle with, and his presence in the meeting room and film sessions, all of that has been a win-win. Alex is a very bright individual. As he gains confidence, the more his intelligence plays to his physical ability. I hope that is what we're witnessing. Only winning and time will tell that."

On the percentage of plays Alex red lines during the week:

"It varies. There are some things that are lengthy call-wise or protection-wise that may be a little queasy that when we worked them in practice, he didn't get the look that we had shown him or he anticipated or he didn't feel as good about dialing them in the game, as he does some other things. It's not a vast change. It's nothing like John Brodie, where he was going to run what he wanted to run and the hell with the plan because he called his own plays back then. It's enough to know and have a feel for what calms the anxiety in certain calls and where he feels most comfortable with things. We try not to have a whole lot of variance of new things so he doesn't have the anxiety of that."

On whether he can recognize body language from his viewpoint during the game:

"Sure. I'm learning him. I know this having coached long enough and called plays enough to know when you go 1-to-1 pass, you're an accident waiting to happen. So, if any play caller, even with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, you start dialing the pass repetitively, 1-to-1, something is going to happen. You have to try to sense the protection and sense the spacing in the passing game I'm speaking of. Whether he's getting hit because getting hit is more difficult for a quarterback than getting sacked. So, you have to gauge the protection, and if he's getting hit, you have gauge the coverage element and how much pressure you're getting by down and distance and how close you are to 1-and-1 and try to keep him out of a situation where something bad could happen, as far as turning the ball over. So, yeah, I can sense that."

On when things will click for Alex and the team waiting for the quarterback for everything to come together:

"I think if the team is waiting on the quarterback, then they have missed the boat. If they're waiting on the quarterback, then we're way off whack. The quarterback play has been very good, and at times, has even tilted towards being outstanding. So, if that is what the team is waiting on, the quarterback, then we're going down the wrong road. The team, as we're going forward in this drive and in this run to win the game this Sunday, the team needs to do the best that they can individually and the pieces will fit if we execute, and it won't be because of the quarterback."

On Alex Smith showing signs that he can be good player in the NFL:

"I think that he has demonstrated that. What you have to understand, if you go back and look at the development of some of the outstanding quarterbacks in this league, he's in his fourth or fifth year with a two-year hiatus where he didn't play at all. He's had four or five different systems, but he demonstrates in portions of games. You don't find many quarterbacks that throw three touchdown passes in second halves of games, be it behind or be it in the league. Once you do that, you do it. It has nothing to do with the score or the team or the opponent or if they're playing bend don't break or any of that. Once you do that, you do it and he has demonstrated on several occasions that he is capable of scoring points with the ball and that's the function of the position and throwing it. So, I would say that yeah, he's well on his way if his maturity and all of the other things that it takes to play the position - he's tough enough, he has escapabilty, he can ad-lib a play, he kept a play alive in the third quarter- got a first down with his feet and legs running the ball - so he has those things. It's his confidence that we're continuing to expand to let him be the best that he can be. Now, whether that will be good or in the upper echelon of the NFL, I don't know, but he certainly has a chance to be good enough."

On his observation of Smith's performance against Green Bay defense in the second half:

"Well, I think that they were trying not to give up the strike over the top ball, but became vulnerable to the deep ball with the style of secondary coverage that they were playing. Then they had to shift gears and try to pressure him and see if they could get the ball to come out quicker to negate [TE] Vernon Davis' speed and [WR Michael] Crabtree's verticalness up the field, so they tried to pressure him. When they tried to pressure him, he hit them. When they tried to defend, he hit them. So, then they got to a point where they mixed the pressure and mixed the coverage and he was still able to move the ball and I think that the last score that we went in on, there was 5:48 left in the game and they were in a different mode on their boundary - totally different, because they hadn't figured out a way to curtail what he was doing."

Mike Singletary "lunch money" transcript

Fooch — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:53:34 -0000

Folks were wondering when we'd get another great pearl from Mike Singletary and today we got one. Coach Singletary was talking about the need for a team to think like a champion and be able to overcome adversity. He indicated he didn't feel the team had enough guys who were there yet in that mentality. That was followed by this:

On why the team didn't think like that after starting 3-1:
"Well, that's what I'm saying. I can only relate it this way. It is like this kid who is going to school, and maybe some of you guys can relate, I know I can. But it is like this kid who is going to school and this guy is taking his lunch money every day. You are tired of this guy taking your lunch money. You are bigger than he is, you are stronger than he is, you can take this kid. But because this kid has been built up so much, everything you heard about him, they say this kid is better than you and you believe that. You are going to continue to give the kid your lunch money until one day you decide, ‘You know what, I'm done with that. I'm not giving you my money anymore and that's it.' That's the same thing in any situation whether it's football, whether it's life or anything else. I'll stop there because I don't want to be motivational."

The slogan for the 2009 49ers was don't tell me, show me. Unfortunately we've seen a lot of talk thus far, and only a modicum of "show me." I know there are a lot of folks who look at most of this as just talk. At the same time, is there any level of truth to the idea that the team is used to "getting their lunch money stolen" and they need to learn how to win? I know there are tangible reasons for the struggles (offensive line, play-calling, tackling, etc...), but does this idea of getting picked on for so long play into that?

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Press Conference - November 23, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statements:

"Good morning ladies and gentlemen. How are you doing? Just to go over some of the injuries: [RB] Michael Robinson has a stinger. That's going to be MRI'd today. [SS] Michael Lewis, quad strain - left quad strain. [WR] Arnaz Battle, right leg strain. [WR] Jason Hill, left ankle sprain. [TE] Delanie Walker, forearm contusion. [LG] David Baas, right ankle sprain. [LB] Patrick Willis just has a trap spasm. [CB Marcus] Hudson, back strain. We'll see how he looks today and MRI it this week. [CB Tarell] Brown, left knee contusion. [S] Reggie Smith, abdominal strain non-related to the groin injury.

Just to get into the game yesterday, a few comments about the game. No, it is a game that we did not play well, a game that we did not tackle well, a game that we did not execute very well - particularly in the first half. And, what I have to say about that is not going to be motivational, it's not going to be - it is going to be fact. It's just a matter of when you have a team and you know you have players that want to be a good football team, they want to be good football players, you just have to work harder to get there. As a coaching staff, we just have to coach better. We just have to coach better, smarter. All of the little things that we're striving to get done, we just have to get them done. It's as simple as that. Yes, I am confident that this season will be a good season. We've got six weeks left. We've got six games left. I am convinced that going forward, that we will play better. I am convinced that in a situation like this, we have to continue to make some changes, whether they're personnel changes or whatever, to continue to try and get the people on the field that can get us where we need to go. Other than that, it's disappointing that we did not play well yesterday. We did not start well. But, we just have to continue to get better. Now, your questions."

On what if he means making the playoffs when he says "good season":

"At the very start of this season, our goal was to win enough games to go to the playoffs. That is still our goal. That has not changed, will not change. We're a team, in my mind, we're good enough to do that. We're running out of games and we're running out of time, but we are better. That's just something that I will not try to go through the ‘ifs' and the ‘buts' or whatever. We just have to get it done."

On whether coaching smarter entails tailoring the offense to QB Alex Smith's strengths:

"I would think that as we continue to move forward and [offensive coordinator] Jimmy Raye and I, and [quarterbacks coach] Mike Johnson, Alex Smith, you have to continue to learn what his strengths are. It would be, from the very first game that he played in Houston after that game, it would be very easy to say, ‘Oh, that's Alex Smith. Let's put him out there,' not taking into any consideration that the defense may be a lot different. Maybe there's something that they're giving up. Not every time that you see it, that's what it is. We're continuing to learn his strengths. We're continuing to have him communicate to us what works for him and what doesn't. I think, as we go forward, we have to really look at what's working for him and what works for the offense and continue to do more of those things."

On whether running the spread offense might suit his strengths better at this time:

"When you say spread offense, can you explain to me exactly what you mean?"

He seems to perform better when he takes the snap in the shotgun formation with more receivers on the field.

"Well, let me ask you this, just to make sure that I'm clarifying. So, you're saying he seems to work better from a shotgun with more receivers on the field. What if he had the same number of receivers on the field but he was still under the center. Would that still be spread to you?"

No. I think he does better out of the shotgun.

"You think he does better out of the shotgun."

It appears the results are better.

"OK. Alright, that's fair. I would just say this: I think for him, when - and I just went back to look at all of his time from Houston to yesterday - he's done well whether he's under center, he's done well whether he's got two backs in the backfield, he's done well whether he's got two or - I think the biggest thing for him is having time. I think that's the most important thing for him. It's to have time. I think one of the worst things that we could do right now is to put Alex Smith in shotgun and say, ‘OK. Let's go get it guys. Here's what it is.' And just let him throw 40, 50 times a game and let's see where you end up. As I'm looking at Alex Smith right now, Alex Smith, to me, is throwing as well as any quarterback in the league right now - as I'm looking at him right now. He is as accurate as any quarterback in the league right now. I think the smartest thing for us to do continuing to go forward is not to take all of training camp, not to take all of what we have gone into this season and just throw it out and say we're going to go to shotgun. I think the smartest thing for us to do is to continue to open it up as Alex Smith allows us to, as he continues to communicate, but we've got to protect him as well, and not just throw him out there because the first time he gets an interception, the first time he gets a tipped ball it is, ‘Well, why are you doing that? Do you think you should open it up that much? Do you think you should expose him that much?' I think we have to be smart about what we're doing. I think we have a good thing going with him. Unfortunately, we haven't done that in the first half, but I think we have a good thing going with him in terms of just allowing him - to every game like he had yesterday, or hopefully on the other side of that thing will be a win, but every game that he has where he can throw like that, it's all of the time he's missed, all of the crap that he's gone through, it gives him that confidence going forward to know, ‘I can do this. I can get this done.' So, hopefully, that starts coming in the first quarter and the second quarter and going forward, maybe you can run a little bit more."

On whether you can just be a passing team:

"I think going forward, even if you look at the Indianapolis Colts, they aren't just a passing team. They may pass more, but depending on the team that they are facing and whether they need to slow the game down or speed the game up, whether they are ahead in the game, or whether they are behind in the game, whether this team has a great pass rush or they don't, I think all of those things become a factor in how many times you are going to throw the ball. I think if you sit down and talk to Peyton Manning, I think one of the first things that he would tell you is that he loves handing the ball off because it is one less interception that he has to take the risk of taking. I do want to have a balance because I believe that if you can run the football, it forces them to respect the pass. It makes them vulnerable and vice versa. Football will always be that way, and when you have a balance, when you can effectively create a balanced attack, then it makes you a better football team. You can go into the game and Alex Smith to me is becoming a complete quarterback. The thing that I'm thankful that he's not doing is crying about not throwing the ball more. I'm really thankful that he's not doing that because he can sit back and look at the number of passes that he's thrown in the game and sit back and look at how accurate he has been. Some quarterbacks would be saying that and that really haven't been as successful as he has been throwing the ball. Some of them might have been crying more about not throwing the ball, even in the media. He hasn't been doing that, which shows me more about who he is, but from what I'm seeing from him, I'm excited about him and there are still some things that he's missing. There's still some reads that he's not getting, which makes it even more exciting, but we are going to get the offensive side of the ball going. I'm talking to Jimmy Raye too much and Jimmy Raye is talking to Alex too much and Alex is talking to Mike Johnson too much and we are talking to each other too much for it not to get where it needs to be so we can have a successful offense. With all of the weapons that we have - our offensive line, that's a work in progress. Hopefully, they are just going to continue to get better and just give us enough time that we need for Alex to get the ball out and for us to have some successful runs and go from there."

On why it is impossible for them to go to a spread offense at this point:

"I think when you are talking about a team going to the playoffs who hasn't been to the playoffs in seven years, the No. 1 thing you have to have is consistency, and to develop consistency, you have to have a certain number of repetitions in something before you can be successful at something. When Alex drops back and he throws that eight-route or that route where the receiver runs and he comes inside. For him to go back and throw that pass and have confidence that pass is going to be there as he goes back and he's looking at that safety. For him to do that, he has to do it 100 times before he can have confidence of knowing he can throw it at this speed because this time I am throwing to Jason Hill. I can throw it at this speed because this time I am throwing it to Michael Crabtree. You have to know the receivers. You have to have a feel for how fast those DBs are going to close on it. It's all of those little things that go into throwing that football with the confidence and the zip that you need in order for it to get there. So if I'm going to open up the offense, every step that I take as a quarterback, if it's a three step drop, it takes time to get the rhythm down, just in the three step drop. If I'm just dropping back and my footwork isn't good and I'm trying to make sure that I'm timing it with the receivers that are going there and if he's not there or my footwork isn't good, it's going to be a pick. It takes time to get that. So instead of working on this 100 times, I'm working on ‘this'100 times, it's a big difference and if that's what you've been doing in training camp, it makes a big difference."

On whether he looks at the trend the league is leaning towards with passing teams being more successful:

"I think every year coming out of the first half of the season, you have teams that pass the ball a lot and they look pretty good right now, but at some point in time, when you start talking about the playoff teams, they are going to have to run the ball and they are going to have to find a balance somewhere to run the football because if they are going to pass - here's what you have a lot and this is interesting, I like this, but what you have a lot is sometimes those passing teams, wherever they may be, whether it's New Orleans, Indianapolis whoever they might be, as you begin to get closer and closer to the playoffs, then those defenses get better, and if you are going to throw the ball a lot nine times out of 10, they are not just going to line up and show you what they are playing. They are going to make that quarterback work and more often than not, the quarterback is not going to be wrong and I just think that as you really get into the second half of the season and you begin to talk about the playoffs and those kinds of things, you have to strive for a balance and those teams that are throwing the ball, they have to be able to run the ball at some point in time. Now, do I think Alex can do that? Yes, I do. Do I think he will be given the opportunity to do that? At some point in time, yes, I do. I think I've said that before. I don't care if we have to throw the ball 100 times in the game. I really do not. I don't care if we run the ball 100 times a game. Do I like that better? Yes. Why? Because if I'm throwing it 100 times a game, chances are there are going to be some picks in there. I don't want that. I don't want to give the team anything if I can, but I'm not opposed to that. The common denominator for me and ever coach and every player that we have is to win. That has to be the common denominator. If that's not it, then we've got the wrong people. So yes, absolutely, whatever works, whatever the formula is, yes, I want that."

On whether he is discussing any potential personnel moves:

"I'm still looking at the film, still looking at the film. I am confident that there may be one or two, but I am still looking at the film."

On which side of the ball he is looking to make changes:

"I don't want to get into that, but there are a couple."

On the factors that led to a low rushing total against the Packers:

"I think one of the biggest things is you are behind. That's the No. 1 factor. That takes you out of everything. It takes you out of your game plan. Now you almost have to be in a panic mode like, ‘Alright, let's get our best passing plays. The run, that's it. We have to try to make it a game again before we can run the ball.' Yes there was time on the clock, but on defense we were not playing great as well. They were holding the ball and we could not get off the field on third down. That made it difficult. Better to try and throw the ball and try to get somewhere where can try to make it a game again. Then we could have a chance to run the ball."

On whether the passing game may not click until next year:

"No, I won't say that. We don't have to wait until next year. I think it is a process going forward. I think after Alex played the Houston game, and maybe after the Indianapolis game, everyone wanted to see the spread. I think we have to continue to work on it because it is a work in progress, it really is."

On whether the team is still adjusting to Smith:

"I think everything worked out for a reason. Would it have been better for Alex if he had started at the beginning of the season? Absolutely, yes. For his maturation, the whole nine yards, would it have been better for our team? Probably not. Shaun Hill started the season and did a tremendous job managing the team, throwing the balls he needed to throw. But I think he took us to a place and that was about as far as he could take us and it was Alex Smith's time to get in. But I also think that Alex Smith really had a chance to grow some. I think Alex Smith, really for the first time in his career, had a chance to sit on the bench and look at another quarterback and be able to listen to the coaches and say, ‘Shaun, I wouldn't have made that throw. Shaun, I wouldn't have done this.' And he would be able to say, ‘Now how would I have done that?' Rather than it being him every year, maybe he wasn't ready, but that's all you got. I think that Alex grew some from that as well. I think for him, it was a win-win situation."

On his emotions on being 4-6:

"You know what, my first emotion is anger. It really is. Anger because it doesn't have to be like this. It did not have to be this way. But at the same time, excitement. Excitement because I am just thankful that we don't have a team where I am coming in here the day after, you are 4-6, you got your tail kicked the day before, and you know when look at that film, ‘We can't do any better than that. We can't beat that team.' And I am looking at that schedule where ‘we can't beat those teams either, we just have to build for next year.' No, that's not what we are. That's not what we are. Where we are right now is, we are still hurting ourselves. We are our own worst enemy. If we could just beat the enemy within, then we have a chance to go out and beat the one we are playing against. When you talk about a championship team, when you talk about changing the culture, when you talk about taking that next step - and we will take that step - when you talk about taking that step, there is more involved in it. Even if you start the season and you are 5-0, there is more involved in it because you have to deal with some of the mental psyche that is involved in it and helping guys understand that you have to see yourselves different, you have to think different, you have to think like a champion. When you walk on that field you have to know, this is my game. When you start thinking like that and you start acting like that, when things go bad on the field you are able to take a step back and go, ‘We are going to make this happen, it is not going to be like it was before. We are going to take that step and we are going to go to the next step. We are going to win this game. We are going to get over this, we are going to around it, we are going to go under it. Whatever it is, we are going to win this game.' When you start thinking like that, that's when you start winning those kinds of games we played in yesterday, when you start thinking like that, when you know that. We don't have enough of those guys there yet. But we will get there and we will get there this year."

On why the team didn't think like that after starting 3-1:

"Well, that's what I'm saying. I can only relate it this way. It is like this kid who is going to school, and maybe some of you guys can relate, I know I can. But it is like this kid who is going to school and this guy is taking his lunch money every day. You are tired of this guy taking your lunch money. You are bigger than he is, you are stronger than he is, you can take this kid. But because this kid has been built up so much, everything you heard about him, they say this kid is better than you and you believe that. You are going to continue to give the kid your lunch money until one day you decide, ‘You know what, I'm done with that. I'm not giving you my money anymore and that's it.' That's the same thing in any situation whether it's football, whether it's life or anything else. I'll stop there because I don't want to be motivational."

On how great he's doing with his analogy:

"No, I'm done."

On whether anyone ever took his lunch money as a child:

"Absolutely."

On how old he was when it happened:

"[Maybe] seven, eight, nine [years old]. I was the last of ten kids."

On whether there is a difference to Alex Smith taking snaps under center in the shotgun formation:

"I do think it makes a difference, but the point that I was making is that he's had success whether he's been under center or in shotgun, and to me, I think it just gets down to that it's one thing when you see it on film, when you talk to him he has to give you that feel for ‘you know what, I really feel better in the shotgun [formation] or I really feel better taking it from under the center.' I think he has mixed feelings about both."

On the possibility that QB Alex Smith maybe much better in the shotgun formation:

"Maybe."

On whether the team can run off of shotgun formation just as effectively as taking snaps from under center:

"Running out of the shotgun [formation] and running from under center is a lot different because particularly having someone like Frank Gore. When you have a running back like Frank Gore, he is a hit-the-hole-downhill guy. He's not a fidget to the right and then give him the ball. When you're in the shotgun, you've got to figure out some kind of way, you've kind of have to work together on how you step this way and he steps that way. It's not like you're under center, you're going back, he's going forward -he's hitting that hole and you've this other guy running around here wrapping around the edge. No, it's not like that. It's different, you guys see what I'm saying? So it's different for the running back. For the quarterback it's great, but it's different for the running back when you've got that kind of running back."

On whether he understands the postgame statements by TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree about their abilities flourishing under the spread offense:

"I understand that they're excited. I understand that anytime that they have the opportunity to catch the ball, they know that they're in a spread situation, and particularly Vernon, he's excited anytime he gets a play called his way. If I were them I would get excited too, but if I'm Crabtree, I need to be a little more quiet because he just got here. He's just trying to figure out what day it is, he didn't go through all the other stuff and I'm kidding when I'm saying that. I just talked to him awhile ago and he is excited about the spread set, Vernon is excited, all of the receivers are excited. I'm sure that Alex is excited as well, but I think it's one of those things where that's why we coach because we also have to look at what's good for Frank. We also have to look at what's good for the offense as a whole. But we do want to honor what the players think about, particularly a playmaker - a quarterback and that's why we've been in so many conversations with Alex. You're right about the point that you're making, Alex is such a humble guy, a meek guy, don't how long he'll stay that way but it's a great thing to have a quarterback like that says ‘what do you think, coach? What do you want?' But for him to be doing the things that he's doing right now, I'm not sure how long we're going to have that, but it's a great thing to have right now and I do want him to take that next step and be like, ‘Hey, you know what, here's what I like, here's what is good for us. That would be good and I think that Alex is getting to a place of being more comfortable being able to communicate that way, and I think as we go forward, he will do that. He's certainly gotten better."

On the possibility of WR Josh Morgan returning kicks again in the future:

"That is a thought. Obviously we liked what we saw yesterday. Hopefully, if Josh Morgan is the kickoff returner, then hopefully he's not returning too many of them in a game so we don't have to worry about it too often. I just think that yesterday, he did a nice job when called upon. I don't know, but we'll have to look at that a little bit more."

On what the coaching staff can do to bring the level of intensity to the players higher:

"I think you keep working. If it were an easy answer, everyone would figure it out. I just think you keep working and you just keep believing it's coming. When I'm talking to the players, I'm looking at the players and also listening to the players. There are a lot of good things happening, but at the end of the day, I just know that we'll get there, sooner than later."