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Shotgun Wedding: Alex Smith Meets the Offense of His Dreams

Florida Danny — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:00:34 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: The time I usually devote to team and players stats was instead devoted last week to this very special article I've put together with the help of Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders (FO). He provided the individual stats for Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, and I did the writing, but we're both in general agreement about what the stats say as they relate to Smith and the shotgun. If you want to show your appreciation for Aaron's entirely unobligated attention to the whims of our blog, and have an interest in accessing FO's statistical database for yourself, head over to his site and get the premium membership. Obviously, I highly recommend it.

Besides whether or not Mike Nolan was going to make it through an entire press conference without saying, "look it," the fate of Alex Smith has been the hottest topic of Niner debate over the past 5 years. I don't need to recap all the gory details, but suffice it to say that he's a polarizing figure among Niner fans. My goal for this post is not to settle the debate. Rather, what I'd like to do here is answer a Dennis-Green-esque question about Smith: Is he who we thought he was?

Whether you love him or hate him, and whether you think he's the 49ers' "QB of the future" or not, there's no denying that what we've seen from Smith this season constitutes a remarkable turnaround for a guy who, just 9 months ago, was in serious danger of being released. In this post, my intention is to show - as crisply and clearly as possible - what the statistics say about the reason(s) for his resurrection. I know the guy's already married and all, but, as you'll see, this season has been something of a shotgun wedding for Smith.

A ROCKY RELATIONSHIP

There's really no mistaking the fact that Smith's career has been seriously hampered by injury. Indeed, he's only had 2 seasons in which he was actually healthy: 2006 and 2009. So, the first clue about the reason for his renaissance is that he's actually healthy. To drive the point home, here's a table showing the 49ers' Pass OFF DVOA for games since 2005 that Smith did not play, games he played while coming off of an injury, and games he played while totally healthy (I've excluded 5 games in which multiple QBs played):

Game Type	G	Avg Pass OFF Game DVOA
Smith healthy	25	-5.2%
Smith coming off injury	8	-63.3%
Smith did not play	37	-22.9%

As you can see from this table, the 49ers' pass OFF has been considerably better in games when Smith is healthy when compared to games in which he didn't play or played coming off of an injury. What's most interesting to me is that, despite the ridiculously small sample size for "Smith coming off injury," the 58.1% difference is statistically significant within 95% certainty. In other words, it's beyond a reasonable statistical doubt that the Niners' OFF plays better when Smith is healthy.

After the jump, I'll show why health is just one of many things that are the same between 2006 and 2009, and therefore can't explain why Smith is better in 2009 than 2006. And, of course, I'll offer my suggestion for what CAN explain it (See story title)...

Of course, not all "Smith healthy" games are created equally. For instance, 16 of these 25 games occurred in 2006, 3 occurred in 2007, and 6 have occurred in 2009. Each of these seasons was qualitatively different for various reasons:

Different offensive coordinators (OCs)
Different offensive lines (OLs)
Different receiving corps

So, to further isolate the reason(s) for Smith's renaissance, we need to see if any of these qualitative differences have exhibited any quantitative (i.e., statistical) difference to support the theory that they are a meaningful contributor to Smith's turnaround this season. Again, remember that we're comparing "healthy Alex" to "healthy Alex" here so that we partial out health as a factor.

First, the OCs. It's conventional wisdom around NinerLand that Norv Turner turned Smith into a competent NFL QB during the 2006 season. However, as we've just seen, the fact that Smith was healthy in 2006 is as important - or more important - a reason for why he played so well that season. Interestingly enough, the fact of the matter is that Smith - and the Niners' overall Pass OFF in games he started* - is considerably better this season than he was in 2006 (2009 stats are through Week 13, Pass OFF Game DVOAs only include games Smith started):

Season	G	DYAR/P	DVOA	EYds/P	Avg Pass OFF Game DVOA
2009	7	0.68	-0.4%	6.05	1.2%
2006	16	-0.26	-15.3%	4.72	-2.4%
2009 Difference		+0.94	+14.9%	+1.33	+3.6%

So, if Smith is better now, how much of it has to do with the fact that Jimmy Raye is his OC rather than Turner. Here's a table comparing the Raye's and Turner's career DVOA stats and rankings prior to being hired by the 49ers:

OC	OFF	Rank	Pass OFF	Rank	Rush OFF	Rank
Turner	-2.2%	16.3	-2.6%	17.3	-2.5%	16.7
Raye	-0.6%	14.3	0.9%	16.0	-2.9%	13.8
Raye Difference	+1.6%	+2.0	+3.5%	+1.3	-0.4%	+2.9

While I'd say that Raye's track record was slightly better when he got hired, I wouldn't say that it necessarily accounts for Alex Smith's improvement above and beyond what we already know about the impact of health. For instance, a 3.5% improvement in Pass OFF DVOA -which is what we'd expect given Raye's and Turner's track records - is hardly a drop in the bucket of Smith's 14.9% individual DVOA improvement. Also, keep in mind that Turner's stats don't include his pre-DVOA-era stint as OC of the early-90s Dallas Cowboys. So, all in all, I'd say the difference in OCs doesn't explain Smith's renaissance.

Onto the OLs. How much of Smith's improvement this season can be attributed to the inherent ability of his OL to block pass rushers? Here's the comparison:

OL	G	ASR	Rank
2009	12	8.6%	27
2006	16	6.8%	18
2009 Difference		-1.8%	-9

OK, so actually, the Niners' OL is worse this season when it comes to pass-blocking. Of course, FO's research shows that ASR is more dependent on the QB than people realize, so it may just be the case that the OL's worse ASR this season is a byproduct of Shaun Hill starting at QB for about half the games. As I'll show later on, ASR has, in fact, decreased since Smith took over at QB. However, what we're trying to explain here is whether Smith's renaissance is due to having a better OL in 2009. Suffice it to say that, even acknowledging the OL's ASR improvement with Smith at QB this season, their ASR is still not better than it was in 2006. In other words, even if you account for the fact that a sack-prone Hill was the QB earlier in the year, the OL is still not pass-blocking better this season than in 2006, and so "better OL pass-blocking" can't be the reason for Smith being better this season than he was in 2006.

The third component of potential qualitative differences between Smith's 2006 and 2009 seasons is his supporting cast in the passing game. Here's a table showing the stats for his stable of receivers in 2006 and 2009:

	2006				2009
Stat	Bryant	Battle	EJ/VD	Gore	Crabs	Morgan	VD	Gore
Targets	91	86	91	86	56	59	101	57
DYAR/T	0.09	1.23	-0.33	1.53	-0.75	-0.27	1.47	1.23
EYds/T	6.43	8.06	3.74	7.66	4.96	5.93	8.50	6.53
Weighted Avg	DYAR/T = 0.61 EYds/T = 6.43				DYAR/T = 0.59 EYds/T = 6.81

From the averages at the bottom of this table - which are weighted by number of targets - it's pretty clear that Smith's 2009 receiving corps is not much better - if at all - than his 2006 receiving corps. It's true that Vernon Davis is better now than when he split time with Eric Johnson back in 2006, but Frank Gore's receiving stats are worse this season, and both of Smith's starting WRs (Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan) are worse statistically than their counterparts in 2006 (Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle). Therefore, it ends up being a wash.

So, just to recap this section, we've determined a few things. First, Alex Smith is significantly better when he's healthy than when he's not (aka duh!). Second, when comparing "healthy Alex" to "healthy Alex," he's actually better this season than he was in 2006. Third, this improvement is not due to (a) having a better OC, (b) having a better OL, or (c) having a better receiving corps.

I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU QB AND OFFENSE

Based on the above, Alex is having his best season this year, but it's not because of health (i.e., he was worse while healthy in 2006), it's not because of a better OC, it's not because of an improved OL, and it's not because of an improved receiving corps. What the hell is it then?

Well, perhaps there's something about this season in particular that doesn't have to do with any of the factors that I've already ruled out. Oh, I know, it's called "the elephant in the room," aka shotgun OFF. Because the only thing different - in terms of offensive football - between this season and his other healthy season, 2006, is the implementation of a shotgun OFF, the only stat-related** factor left to look at is whether or not the reason for Smith's renaissance is due to him being a better shotgun QB.

Thanks to Aaron Schatz over at Football Outsiders***, I got my hands on Smith's individual shotgun and non-shotgun stats through 11 games:

QB	Plays	% Shotgun	Yards per Pass	IR	DVOA	VOA
Smith in Shotgun	125	60.1%	5.98	2.4%	8.4%	13.5%
Smith Under Center	83	39.9%	5.49	4.8%	-29.6%	-25.3%

Eureka! When Smith is in the shotgun, he averages half-a-yard more per pass, his interception rate (IR) drops by half, and his QB DVOA is 38.0% better! So, yeah, Smith is waaaaay better in the shotgun.

Of course, it could just be that all QBs show this kind of discrepancy between shotgun and non-shotgun performance (after all, FO's research shows as much), and so what I'm attributing to shotgun might actually just be a statistical artifact of that formation being more efficient in general. To solve this, we need to do a little experiment.

If only there was a QB to compare Smith to that's had the same OC, the same OL, and the same supporting cast this season. Oh wait, there is. His name is Shaun Hill. The question at hand, then, is, "Was Shaun Hill waaaaay better in the shotgun this season just like Alex Smith has been?" Again, thanks to Aaron, here's Hill's stats:

QB	Plays	% Shotgun	Yards Per Pass	IR	DVOA	VOA
Hill in Shotgun	89	50.3%	6.03	2.2%	-22.1%	-4.9%
Hill Under Center	88	49.7%	3.86	0.0%	-35.0%	-27.5%

As is plainly obvious, Hill did not enjoy anywhere near the amount of improvement in shotgun that Smith has. Hill's Shotgun GB DVOA was over 30% worse than Smith's is, and his "benefit from the shotgun" difference is over 3 times smaller. Furthermore, as you can see from the differences between DVOA and unadjusted VOA for each QB, Hill's horrible shotgun efficiency actually came against an easier shotgun schedule. In other words, Smith's massive benefit from shotgun as compared to Hill was totally independent of any difference in strength of schedule.****

So, essentially, if we put another QB in practically the exact same situation as Alex Smith in 2009, that QB doesn't benefit from shotgun nearly as much. In other words, all else being equal, Smith has been helped by the shotgun offense waaaaaay more than Hill, who had the same OC, same OL, and same stable of receivers (p.s. In case you're wondering, Bruce stats = Crabtree stats, and Morgan with Smith < Morgan with Hill, so, if anything, Hill had a better supporting cast according to DVOA).

MARRIED WITH CHILDREN

Just to put an exclamation point on things, let me provide some evidence showing that the increase in shotgun with Smith at QB has borne fruit outside of Smith's own renaissance. Here's a table showing some 49er stats as they were after Hill's last full game, and as they are after 12 games:

Statistic	Through 5 Games	Rank	Through 12 Games	Rank	Change	Rank
OFF DVOA	-16.0%	26	-7.1%	21	+8.9%	+5
Pass OFF DVOA	-8.6%	26	1.3%	21	+9.9%	+5
Rush OFF DVOA	-18.0%	27	-5.8%	25	+12.2%	+2
OL ALY	2.86	31	3.23	32	+0.37	-1
OL ASR	10.7%	30	8.6%	27	+2.1%	+3

As you can see, there's been absolute improvement across the board: better overall OFF, better pass OFF, better rush OFF, better run-blocking, and better pass-blocking. In other words, an increase in the use of shotgun underlies both Smith's specific improvement and a general improvement in the 49ers' OFF overall.

BOTTOM LINE

If you put everything I've presented in this post together, you see a clear picture of why Alex Smith appears to be a better QB all of a sudden. The stats-based logic goes something like this:

Smith plays better when healthy, and the 49ers' OFF plays better with a healthy Smith.
Smith has only had 2 healthy seasons with the Niners: 2006 and 2009.
Smith is playing better while healthy in 2009 than he did while healthy in 2006.
Smith does not have a better OC, a better OL, or a better receiving corps than he did in 2006.
Therefore, Smith's improvement in 2009 cannot be attributed to health, OC, OL, or receivers.
Smith plays waaaaay better in the shotgun.
Hill, who had the same OC, OL, and receivers as Smith, and even played an easier shotgun schedule than Smith, did not play waaaaay better in the shotgun.
Smith has taken about 60% of his snaps from shotgun this season.
Therefore, the main reason for Smith's renaissance is more shotgun.

In other words, it's been a shotgun wedding for Smith and the 49ers' OFF.

*If you add in the 83.8% Pass OFF Game DVOA for this season's Texans game, the 2009 average increases to 13.0%.

**I realize that there are non-statistical factors that could explain Smith's improvement. He could just be a "smarter QB" now after having basically done nothing but "mental reps" for the past 2 years. He could be "more mature" given the adversity he's had to fight through so far in his career and personal life. However, these are intangibles that no one can - or should - try to measure from my distance. So, I'm limited to tangibles that we can measure statistically. I will say, however, that, if it's truly the case that Smith is "smarter" or "more mature" in 2009, then why do these things not show up when he's under center? Can it really be that moving a few steps forward and putting his hands under his C's rear end makes his brain go soft and turns him into an NFL toddler? I seriously doubt that.

***DVOA, DYAR, EYds, ALY, & ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

****And one more thing, don't think that Hill has been worse than Smith from shotgun simply by virtue of taking a lower percentage of snaps in that generally-more-efficient formation. Remember, I've presented their "per play" stats, i.e., I've already accounted for the difference in shotgun percentage, and, therefore, eliminated it as a confounding variable.

Poll

To which of the following do you attribute Alex Smith being better statistically this season than he was in 2006?

Whats wrong with the offense? Lets start with some coaching shall we...

Niko Houllis — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:52:09 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Expect a revolving door for Morris' assistant coaches on both sides of the ball this offseason.

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Just not the one your thinking. After watching the Jets game over again (Yes it was more painful to watch the second time around), I thought about the reasons why we could be playing so bad here in week 13, when it appeared we had begun to play better. Well everyone was right...its coaching. But, not so fast; I'm talking about assistant coaching. Because before I am up for a wholesale change of coaches for a team that had zero to no talent to begin with, lets look at what was observed in game replay.

I'm not going to sit here and say that Offensive Line Coach Pete Mangurian is not doing a good job, because there is no way that I know enough, but if we are going to look at coaches responsible for getting players ready, dont we look at positiion coaches too? True Mangurian came from the Patriots, but he was the tight ends coach there for 4 years. Yes he coached the OL with Dan Henning in Atlanta before New England.

Another thing to consider about the O line, is the disaster that is/was the OC this year. First they were told to lose weight and learn the Zone Blocking scheme. Now that has been abandoned, and they seem to be getting dominated by a much better defensive front 7 than people give the Jets credit for. Not that the line had ever been considered a dominant rushing line. Its strength has always seemed to be pass protectiion (or false starts from the right tackle position) rather than run, and if anything, Aaron Sears was probably the best run blocker on the team. Still, if we can criticize Bill Muir......

Tim Berbenich is listed as the assistant wide receivers coach, but on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers own website, I do not see a Wide Receivers coach besides Berbenich. He has been with the Bucs for the last 4 years, prior to 2009 he was the quality control coach in 2006 and 2007, then in 2008 he was assistant running backs coach when the Bucs rushed for a 4.07 per carry average; 5th best in Bucs history. He partnered up with running backs coach, Richard Bissacia. Injuries have hit the WR corp hard this year, with Antonio Bryant, without argument the best WR, pretty much being missing everything from the get go this year. He seems to only now be in proper form. So just when we get our starting WR back, our second string one goes down(Clayton), and our third (Stroughter). Is it little wonder the offense did not acommplish much. AB was being canceled out by Jets shut down corner Darrelle Revis, so the heart of our passing offense was Brian Clark and Maurice Stovall. Again, not sure if coaching is the problem here, but WR position is weak enough talent wise, after you talk about AB that is. I expect some coaching changes at One Buc, and assistant coaches should not feel safe.

Speaking of running backs, why dont we run the ball more? Well, we are very inconsistant in our rushing attack, and I think you can bet that this seasons running backs coach will not be back in 2010. That would be Steve Logan, who before coming to Tampa Bay this season, was the Offensive Coordinator for Jeff Jagodzinski at Boston College.

Thats right, he was the guy who CALLED plays for Jagodzinski at Boston College, so I'm guessing the Bucs did not want to remove the Offensive Coordinator AND and Running Backs coach too. Jags was fired 10 days before the season started because he could not call/implement and NFL capable offense.

I do not think Mark Dominik and Raheem Morris, plus whomever else is responsible, had any idea how many dominoes would fall if they didnt get their picks as OC and DC right.

On the defensive side, expect the Bucs to go after defensive backs coach Jimmy Lake. It was probably felt there would be an uproar from fans if the Bucs stocked their defense with two assistants from an 0-16 team instead of the one: LB coach Joe Barry.

If you think the offseason is going to be about who we bring in for free agents, and the draft, think again. Coaches we pick up will be just as important as to how the Bucs far in 2010, when Morris WILL officially be on the hot seat starting with game one.

Closing the Book on Week 14: Bucs Dominated In Every Phase of the Game, Swept by the Big Apple

Craig T — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

When your offense can't stay on the field and spell the defense, this sight was inevitable. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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If you've got a weak heart, don't read this article.

They say "Home is Where the Heart Is." Maybe somebody needs to put that sign over the door to the Buccaneer locker room, because they sure haven't shown much heart at home this season. There's no other way to sugar-coat Sunday's debacle. No gameplan. No inspiration. No nothing. The result: another home blowout loss to a decent, but not great opponent from the Big Apple. Back in Week 3, I thought that the Buccaneers hit rock bottom in all phases against the New York Giants. One red zone trip in the final minutes. No first downs until end of 3rd quarter. Blown coverages. Missed tackles. Leftwich couldn't complete a pass to an open receiver to save his life. Just dominated on both sides of the ball.

Sunday's game at the Jets just reeked of many the same old problems.... plus a new one that's reared its ugly head recently. Our Face of the Franchise Josh Freeman carried over his myopic tunnel vision from last week on the game's first play, trying to force the ball into a blanketed Antonio Bryant. AB ran a skinny post with a cornerback slightly trailing, where a safety was ready to step in front of the already covered Bryant if the flat-footed ILB David Harris had not had the ball gift-wrapped for him. Again, like last week, Freeman locked onto his #1 wide receiver from the snap, enabling the safety to slide over and get what would have been a pick or break up if the underneath LB zone coverage had whiffed. Freeman has to show better awareness, as there was no way Bryant could have caught that ball.

The playcalling was suspect. 40 passing plays against 16 rushes... with all 3 running backs and all 5 offensive linemen active and available? With a struggling rookie quarterback who's locking onto wide receivers, having problems recognizing simple NFL zone coverages? With Darrelle Revis consistently locked in between the "8" and "9" on Bryant's jersey? Yes, I understand the Bucs were trailing, but they came out throwing and never made a serious attempt to match the physicality of the Jets defense and establish a consistent, serious ground attack, especially into the second quarter, when the Bucs were trailing by 6 and 9 points. (When your offensive line is getting whipped on each play, I can undestand you've got to try something else. Then again, when your rookie QB is taking sacks and tossing picks, trying to establish the run can at least limit some negative plays that set up Jet scores.)

From there, things just got worse. Zero first half yards. No, that is not a mistype. Zero yards. Even with the immovable Kris Jenkins on IR, Jeff Faine and the guards got NO push against the interior of that Jet defensive line, leading to a porous 1.4 YPC for Caddy, Ward, and Graham.

The aggressive Jet defense got in Freeman's face early and often, bringing him down and/or forcing some ill-fated throws. As I noted in my game preview, the Jets love to blitz multiple guys from the same side, and they did just that. Their blitz of choice was to overload the right side of the Buccaneer offensive line and go after Freeman, mainly on 2nd and 3rd down. One drive-killing sack put the Bucs back deep at their own 6 yard line, which eventually led to a Jay Feely field goal. A 4th quarter blitz off the left side collapsed the pocket, contributing to Freeman's off-target mid-range throw and Revis' game-clinching pick. Unfortunately, as I also discussed in my preview, the Buccaneers failed to make the aggressive Jet defense pay... to wit, by failing to run some running back screens, wide receiver bubble screens, and delayed swing/flat passes to the running backs and tight ends. Granted I didn't see everything in between trips to the beer stand, but I don't recall seeing them run a screen or designed play to get behind the blitz once.

Really, with very, very few (if any) positives coming out of this game, where does the onus of the blame lie for this debacle? There are plenty of culprits...

Offensive line: It's just so baffling that an experienced group of veteran lineman on this roster could be so ineffective as a unit this year. In keeping with the season-long trend of the Bucs inability to establish a ground game, the Buccaneer running backs managed a meager 22 yards on 16 carries... less than a yard and a half per tote. It's tough for a back to run through a wall, and the holes just weren't there at all. As Davin Joseph said on his radio show last week, the Buc line has gone from a primary zone-blocking scheme to a mixture of zone and assignment-blocking schemes. I've got to go back and watch a little bit more, but the two-gap system clearly gave them fits and I've got to wonder if playing against the Jets' defense, which switched between base 3-4 and 4-2 nickel fronts, confused our guys and led to an increased number of missed assignments. Regardless, to put things into perspective about this line, when's the last time this offense executed an interior run, where a large hole opened up and our back got to the second level and ripped off a 20-40+ yard run??? This unit just isn't getting the push needed to hit some big plays on the ground and consistently move the chains.

Coaching: It's the same coach-speak, week in week out, and this week was no different. The coaches were going to make a conscious effort to be physical... to run the football consistently and establish a running game. That plan might have been nipped in the bud by the halftime score, but I don't think they had created enough plays to overcome the Jets' blitzes. Same spread formation, same mid-to-deep range passing plays. No screens or swing passes to negate the blitzes. Raheem Morris admitted today at his presser that he didn't have the team ready to go Sunday. I think that's true with both the milquetoast offensive game plan and lack of urgency, hustle, and toughness that was noticeably absent on Sunday. Even though the offensive line is underperforming, it's incumbent on Morris to find a way to get some balance into this offense and some success on the ground. It's just not getting done. To be fair, the defense has played better with Raheem running the defense and their gap penetration has limited the gaping holes to the linebackers and secondary for opposing backs (even a little better than the Bucs did in the last four games of the 2008 season), but at the end of the day, the numbers continue to demonstrate this being a defense that yields alot of yards.

Josh Freeman: For the third straight week, he looked like the rookie he is. It's starting to look like defenses are figuring out that Freeman locks onto receivers and that if you keep an underneath 3-LB basic zone coverage (not even a zone blitz where they drop an end or 3-4 OLB, but a simple drop zone coverage), you can break up the mid-range pass or turn him over. First pass of the game was an unmitigated disaster to a completely blanketed AB. Whenever AB, Brian Clark, or Kellen Winslow managed to get a slight bit of separation, Freeman continually missed them. His pass behind AB in the first half killed one drive and his pass behind Brian Clark in the 4th quarter led to the final Jet score that salted the game away. He looked every bit as green as he is and appears to be regressing since exploding onto the scene. Time will only tell if his dropoff can be attributed to the dual role of Olson as coordinator/QB coach (check out BucWild's article from today... fantastic read), or if his NFL production can be expected to be as inconsistent as his college numbers turned out at Kansas State.

Defense: Well, what can you really say when you're on the field the entire game? Our overworked D held Thomas Jones to just under 100 yards rushing on 24 carries. Not terrible, considering the Jet front pounded our front 7 with 39 designed runs to the Jet running backs and wide receivers... but still... 175 rushing yards and 4.4 YPC is not particularly great. Missed tackles in the middle and a bad angle from Tanard Jackson led to a 33-yard TD run from Thomas Jones, putting the Bucs in a huge hole early. The Bucs also were beat in coverage in one-on-one situations and were lucky that Kellen Clemens missed some open receivers. By contrast, the Jets' defense was a pillar of consistency on each play and showed what great defenses do... execute on every single play. The longest Buccaneer run of the game was 6 measly yards, and the Bucs failed to hit any big play in the passing game that could turn the tide of the game or, heck, even flip the field a time or two.

What were your impressions from Sunday's game?

Jets 26 Buccaneers 3: Flying High Again

John B — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:02:58 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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The Jets are somehow back in the Playoff mix after their 26-3 victory today over the Bucs in Tampa. Gang Green is riding a 3 game winning streak and is back over .500 at 7-6. The last month of this season could get very, very interesting. This performance rivals the Houston and Oakland games in terms of domination.

More after the jump.

The Good:

The Defense: We'll definitely profile some of the outstanding individual performers, but this was just an excellent defensive effort. Tampa's only 3 points came as the result of a personal foul on Bart Scott on which the officials arguably should have thrown an offsetting flag on the Bucs. The blitz packages had Josh Freeman's head spinning and overwhelmed Tampa's offensive line. Freeman was 14 for 33 with 93 yards and 3 interceptions. The Bucs didn't have a first down until the third quarter. They ended with 6 and 124 total yards. This was domination.

Jay Feely: Feely was money today. He hit 4 out of 5 field goals. One was from 40 yards, and a pair were from 49. Feely's kicking helped the Jets put the game away even as their offense struggled to advance deep into Tampa Bay territory.

Calvin Pace: He was constantly running free and finished with 7 tackles and a sack.

Darrelle Revis: Another dominant performance by the game's best corner. Antonio Bryant had 2 catches for 22 yards. Revis had an interception that just about iced the game and broke up a few passes.

Mike Westhoff: A fourth successful fake punt this year deserves kudos. It was the third variety of fake punt the team has run. Apparently the Bucs didn't pick it up on film.

Danny Woodhead: 3 catches for 35 yards. I'm really liking the idea of having him as a third down back and replacing Leon Washington a bit as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

The Tiger Formation: I made that name up, but it's what we'll call the Wildcat package for Brad Smith. Smith only had 16 yards on 5 carries, but getting the ball into the hands of a playmaker in the open field is a good idea and at least gives upcoming opponents something to notice on film and spend time preparing for. Smith had a 21 yard punt return. I'd like to see him out there instead of Jerricho Cotchery. He's more apt to make guys miss. I know he doesn't have great hands as a receiver and would seem to be more of a turnover risk, but catching a punt is different from catching a pass.

Thomas Jones: Another big stat line against an opponent that was gameplanning to stop him. TJ had 99 yards on 24 carries and 2 touchdowns.

The Bad:

Kellen Clemens: The best thing you could say is that he avoided a catastrophic mistake, finishing with no turnovers. In other words, he was lucky that Tampa Bay's offense was no inept because he didn't make any plays. This was bad any way you slice it. This is a bad defense that was loading up to stop the run. Kellen only hit 12 of 23 passes for 111 yards and looked lost aside from a brief period in the second half. He left plays on the field. He wasn't making decisions quickly enough. When he found a receiver, his throws were wildly inaccurate. His mechanics were a mess. He struggled with all but the most basic throws, and even some of them were an adventure.

A lot of us (and I include myself in that number) have been making excuses for Kellen for four years. He was young and inexperienced. He wasn't supposed to play. His offensive line was terrible. The team never gave him a chance. He's out of excuses. By this point, if he was ever going to be a player in this league, he would have shown some sign of it. It's sad to say because from what I hear you'll never meet a more genuinely good person. However, I don't see how Kellen finds a job in the NFL after this season.

Shonn Greene: That would be three fumbles in six games. When the ball is getting punched out from behind like that, it's a sign you're carrying it way too loosely. The Jets are going to have to start taking carries away from him. Even though he's been productive, it's becoming too much of a turnover risk.

Mike Westhoff: Westhoff got credit for the fake punt. He also has to take heat for the onside kick. It's been obvious the up men have been leaving too early all year. It almost cost them against Jacksonville. It hasn't been corrected at all. The Jets had no shot of recovering that kick because their men were so far down the field.

Three down, three to go. Nobody can say for sure how this thing will end. One thing is for sure. The Jets have shown a lot of character this year. It would have been easy to pack it in after the midseason swoon. The way they have continued to fight and get themselves back into this position says a lot good.

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Offense

John B — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 21:03:42 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Rookie quarterback melts down. That was the story last week for Tampa. We know how they feel. In his first four starts, though, Josh Freeman had looked pretty good for a rookie with a 7 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio. Accuracy had been something of an issue as it is with many rookies. However, Freeman offered a glimpse of what he may become two weeks ago with a 20 for 29 250 yard game against Atlanta. You may remember I was against taking Freeman in the Draft last April because he threw a ton of interceptions in college and seemed to have a high bust factor. He's given the Bucs room for cautious optimism this year.

I tend to think a second straight rough week is more likely than a bounce back this week. This is a really good Jets defense that will throw looks at him he has never seen. He's also going to have to do without his top wide receiver in any likely scenario. Our friends at Buc Em seem to think Antonio Bryant will be able to hold his own against Revis. I respectfully disagree with our friends. As they point out, Revis shut down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. Is there anything Bryant can do that Moss or Johnson can't do better? I don't think so. I understand the pass rush does aid corners, but the reverse is also true. Part of the reasons the Jets have had so impressive rushing the passer has been that the coverage has held when blitzes have been picked up, which gives rushers extra time to get to the quarterback.

The Bucs will probably have Freeman focus on Kellen Winslow to make his throws safe. Winslow is Tampa's leading receiver with 58 receptions and 633 yards. This could be a game for Kerry Rhodes to reassert himself. I'm not sure I like the matchup between Winslow and Eric Smith. Winslow's way more athletic.

Beyond that, it's not clear what Tampa has in the passing game. Both Michael Clayton and Sammie Stroughter are battling injuries and quite possibly could miss the game, which would leave Maurice Stovall and his 18 receptions in the starting lineup. With Revis on Bryant, the Jets can scheme their coverage around Winslow because Lito Sheppard should be able to handle his assignment without much help.

Another problem will be protection. Tampa Bay's tackles, Jeremy Trueblood and Donald Penn, and center Jeff Faine are all in the top seven at their position in terms of pressures allowed. This could force the rookie to make a lot of mistakes. Guard Davin Joseph in in the top five while Jeremy Zuttah is in the top fifteen. It's a young line that is still a work in progress.

Antonio Bryant's Sticky Fingers is one of three Cant Miss Plays of the Week on Sprint/NFL.com

Niko Houllis — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 10:00:20 -0000

We are moving up I guess, as this is the second time now in two weeks the Bucs have a highlight in the Sprint/NFL.com "Cant Miss Plays of the Week" series. The play for the Bucs is Antonio Bryant's fingertip catch on the sideline where he tip taps his feet inbounds.

So go Vote for the Cant Miss Plays of the Week and you could win a one of 17 trips to go to the Superbowl!

The other two plays are the Raiders 75 yard TD against the Steelers, and the Saints unusual TD where the ball is stripped from a Redskin who picks the ball off!

Breaking Down Panthers Red Zone Defense

Ryan Basen — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:25:23 -0000

More photos » by Rick Havner - AP

Panthers safety Chris Harris intercepts a pass intended for Buccaneers receiver Maurice Stovall in the second half Sunday. Harris' pick in the end zone marked the sixth consecutive Bucs trip to the Carolina 20 in which the Panthers prevented a Tampa touchdown. (AP Photo/Rick Havner)

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Tampa Bay moved the ball seemingly at will for much of Sunday's game at Carolina. The Bucs rolled up 469 yards of offense, including 315 passing, 22 first downs and 13 plays of 15 yards or more.

Yet Tampa scored only 6 points. That's because Carolina's defense was clutch and opportunistic. The Panthers picked off five Josh Freeman passes and stuffed 10 of 14 third-down attempts, as well as 1 of 2 fourth-down attempts. The Bucs had the ball at the Panthers 20 or closer six times. but the Panthers prevented Tampa touchdowns each time.

Here is an inside look at the key play that stalled each of those six drives, and allowed the Panthers to win despite scoring just 16 points:

Situation: Third-and-1, ball on the Carolina 3. The Panthers led 10-0 with 14:20 to play in the second quarter.

Formations: Tampa lined up with one tailback and a fullback right, a tight end left, an H-back left and a receiver wide right. Carolina used four linemen with five other defenders in the box and a corner playing 5 yards off the receiver.

What happened: The H-back went in motion right and set behind the right tackle. The fullback, Chris Pressley, took the handoff and ran up the middle for no gain.

How it happened: Defensive end Julius Peppers fought off a block and tackled Pressley at the line of scrimmage.

The result: Tampa faced a fourth down and opted for a field goal, drawing within 10-3.

Situation: First-and-10, Carolina 20. 10-3 Panthers. 11:20 to play in second.

Formations: Tampa lined up in the shotgun with four receivers, two on each side, and a tight end left. Carolina used four linemen with two other defenders in the box and four defenders each a few yards off the receivers.

What happened: Tampa was rolling. The Bucs had picked off a Matt Moore pass and set up their offense at the Carolina 44. Two plays later Freeman connected with receiver Antonio Bryant for 20 yards, setting up this play. Freeman threw complete to Bryant for 3 yards. But Bucs tackle Jeremiah Trueblood hit corner Chris Gamble in the back after the whistle, drawing a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty.

How it happened: Freeman pump faked left and threw a quick screen right towards Bryant, standing at the 20. Left defensive end Everette Brown read the play. As soon as Freeman threw to Bryant, Brown sprinted towards the receiver. He arrived in time to make a solo tackle on Bryant at the 17. Gamble had arrived to help with the tackle, but slowed up as the whistle sounded. Then Trueblood hit him from behind, knocking him onto the ground and drawing the flag.

The result: Tampa moved back to the 32, facing a second-and-22 after the penalty. The Bucs failed to pick up a first down and settled for another field goal, moving within 10-6.

Situation: First-and-10, Carolina 16. 10-6 Carolina. 4:12 to play in second.

Formations: Tampa lined up in I-formation with two receivers right and one receiver in the left slot. Carolina used a 4-3 with one corner in press coverage on the receiver in the left slot, and two other corners playing off the line.

What happened: Freeman had just moved the Bucs 64 yards in six plays to get back inside the red zone. But on this play Peppers and defensive end Tyler Brayton sacked Freeman for a 4-yard loss.

How it happened: Freeman dropped back and held the ball for a couple seconds. Peppers wore out the left tackle and hit Freeman, and Brayton finished him off at the 20 to complete the coverage sack.

The result: The Bucs faced a second-and-14. Cadillac Williams ran for 2 yards and Freeman missed an open Bryant in the end zone on third down, forcing Tampa to settle for another field goal attempt. This time Connor Barth missed, from 36 yards out.

Situation: First-and-goal, Carolina 4. 10-6 Carolina. 12:39 to play in third.

Formations: Tampa lined up in I-formation with two tight ends left and a receiver in the right slot. Carolina used six linemen with one corner in press coverage on the receiver and four other defenders in the box.

What happened: The Bucs had taken the second half kickoff and moved 68 yards in four plays, setting up this play. Linebacker Jon Beason intercepted a Freeman pass at the goal line and returned it 18 yards.

How it happened: Freeman faked a handoff to the tailback and had plenty of time to throw. Beason spied Freeman and hid behind the defensive line. Freeman threw over the middle for Bryant, who was double-covered in the end zone. Beason drifted backward and leaped to corral Freeman's pass at the goal line.

The result: The Bucs missed an opportunity to take the lead or at least attempt a chip shot field goal that would have draw them within 1 point.

Situation: First-and-10, Carolina 20. 13-6 Carolina. 4:25 to play in third.

Formations: Tampa lined up in shotgun with four receivers in the slots -- two on each side -- and one back. Carolina used a 4-3 with two corners in press coverage on the outside receivers.

What happened: Gamble had fumbled a Tampa punt, which the Bucs recovered to set up this play. Beason again picked off Freeman, this time returning the interception 18 yards to the Panthers 21.

How it happened: Freeman forced a deep slant for Bryant over the middle. Gamble had good coverage on Bryant and Beason was standing near the goal line in front of Bryant, in a deep zone. Yet Freeman threw the ball anyway and Beason picked it off.

The result: The Bucs blew another chance to chip into the Panthers lead.

Situation: Fourth-and-goal, Carolina 3. 13-6 Carolina. 10 minutes to play in fourth.

Formations: Tampa used shotgun, with two receivers on each side and one back. Carolina used four linemen with four other defenders in the box, two corners in press coverage on the outside receivers and a safety assigned to double-team the outside receiver to the left (Bryant).

What happened: Tampa had moved 80 yards in 14 plays, but the drive bogged down inside the 10. The Bucs passed up a field goal attempt and elected to go for the tie. But safety Chris Harris picked off Freeman in the end zone for a touchback.

How it happened: Bryant went in motion and set in the left slot. Two defenders followed him. The Panthers rushed four and one defender shadowed the back flaring left out of the backfield. Freeman had lots of time, but defensive tackle Damione Lewis eventually got up off the ground and pressured Freeman. That forced Freeman to throw the ball. He elected to throw for receiver Maurice Stovall, whom Harris was guarding, and Harris made the interception.

The result: For the sixth straight series in which Tampa had moved at least to the Carolina 20, the Bucs failed to score a touchdown. They still trailed by a touchdown. Carolina promptly drove inside the Bucs 20 and John Kasay kicked a field goal a few minutes later to give the Panthers a two-score lead.

From a Freeman 5 interception day, an A B point of view.

Niko Houllis — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 10:49:01 -0000

Its not the best film clip, but it is a fantastic angle that was caught by Fox cameras.

Its a view from the end zone, right behind where Antonio Bryant was when the ball was thrown.

If you can take out the Fox Graphics in your head, you can appreciate the point of view.

According to the reports of the Press conference, Freeman was supposed to look off Beason who picked the ball off, so Bryant would be open. From this angle, you can see what Freeman was looking for; or at. Truely, if Beason had been looked off, this would have been 6 points.

See the 4th Qtr 4th & Goal option photo after the jump.

Yes the game moves fast, here was one case where locking in on AB would have been a big plus.

AB Shook off his guy and was open, just behind the ref where the A starts in Carolina. The throw was picked off when it was thrown to the other side of the field.

Panthers Pick Apart Bucs 16-6

Jaxon — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 23:35:15 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

10 days ago: Carolina Panthers quarterback Matt Moore, right, is congratulated by teammates Travelle Wharton, left, and Mackenzy Bernadeau, center, in the closing seconds of their 16-6 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

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The Panthers took care of business today beating a one win Bucs team that is still breaking in a new QB. The game featured two young QBs trying to rally their teams. The Panther defense made sure their new starter got off to a good start intercepting Bucs QB Josh Freeman 5 times on their way to their fifth victory.

Here's some quick hits with further analysis coming:

LB Jon Beason led the defense with two red zone INTs and 6 tackles
RB Jonathan Stewart got his first start of the season and responded with 120 yards and TD on 26 carries
QB Matt Moore was a pedestrian 14 of 20 for 161 yards with one INT but more importantly he limited his mistakes
WR Steve Smith was mostly silent (3 for 78 yds) outside of a big catch late in the game (66 yards)

CB Richard Marshall led the defense with 9 tackles but had trouble covering Bucs WR Antonio Bryant (5 for 116 yds)
K John Kasay was 3 for 3 on FGs
Back-up RB Terrel Sutton played well (6 for 38, 6.2 ypc) showing good moves on some inside runs
With PR Captain Munnerlyn sidelined from a concussion CB Chris Gamble muffed his only punt return catch giving the Bucs a short field
SS Chris Harris had 5 tackles and an INT and led the run support from the secondary. He also short circuited a pass by Freeman on a blitz where he hit the QBs arm as he was throwing
The Panthers were a paltry 3 for 11 (27%) on 3rd downs, an on-going trend in 2009

The biggest question from this game is did you see enough from Matt Moore to let him start next week even if Jake Delhommes finger is better? Should he start the remainder of the season?

Poll

The Panthers game ball in the win over the Bucs should go to:

Bucs shoot blanks, go down fighting 16-6

Niko Houllis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:48:24 -0000

Antonio Bryant was a Freeman favorite; in between the 20s.

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Bucs fans were taken on a wild ride today, as they lost to the Carolina Panthers by only ten points, but left many of their own on the field as two missed Field Goals and 5 interceptions spelled doom for the Pewter Pirates in Carolina.

Call it progress on an small level. The Bucs gave up 158 yards of rushing to Carolina, which was better than the 267 earlier this year, which was better than the 299 at the end of last season. In the 3rd and 4th quarter, the Bucs actually took yardage away from the Panthers totals. The offense meanwhile went almost 500 yards today, but no one on the team should be happy as the maturation process of Josh Freeman entered another chapter with 5 interceptions registered to the rookie signal caller. Most of them costly, Freeman will undoubtedly learn from his mistakes, but the timing of them couldn't have been any worse for Bucs fans who watched Connor Barth doink one kick of off the left goalpost, and push another right of the next. He made his first two kicks today, but that is all the Bucs offense had to show for its 1st place Red Zone ranking prior to this game. Every time the Bucs drove the Ball into enemy territory though, they came up empty. They ran the ball, they threw the ball, but in the end It didnt matter if it was a running play or a pass, the result was basically the same. Lots of movement in between the 20s to the tune of 469 yards of offense, but no scoring.

Some Bucs Shots...

Kellen Winslow was basically a soldier MIA, yet ended up with 69 yards with a handful of catches with a few late 4th qtr appearances.
Cadillac Williams almost finished with 100 yards, going 92 yards on 17 plays for a 5.4 avg.
Derrick Ward had a few good runs as a Buc, averaging 6.4 ypc with 32 yards on 5 carries.
Antonio Bryant in keeping up with last years showing in Carolina, caught 5 balls for 115 yards.
Bucs are now 1-15 in the 16 complete games since the last loss at Carolina on MNF, the worst stretch since 1977.

But the only news that really is news, the throwing of young Josh Freeman with his 24 of 44 for 321 yards but the handful of picks he would love to shake off as soon as possible.

On the other side of the ball, the defense was gashed early with sloppy tackling reminicent of previous Bucs/Panthers contests, and the score got to a 10-0 deficit in a hurry. But the Bucs took over the game and put two FGs on the board before all the misfires occured.