SB Nation - Vernon Davis

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Five Keys To Success

Andrew602 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:44:13 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

Expect to see a lot of Nine-O on Monday night. He's already twittered that he's fired up for the game.

The Arizona Cardinals (8-4) take their 5-1 road record to San Francisco to take on the 49ers (5-7) on Monday night. Both teams regularly keep the games close when they play each other, with 7 of the last 8 games being decided within 7 points, and the only game more was the season opener last year (the Cardinals won by 10 but the game was decided at the end).

This year, after a 1-2 start , the Cardinals are 7-2 since and have shown an obvious improvement on offense since the Cardinals lost to the 49ers in the opening week. The Cardinals road success has been a surprise, as they've outscored opponents with an average score 26.8 - 15.1. At home, they're average score is 22.6 - 23.8.

The 49ers have experience the opposite season as the Cardinals. Since they began the season 3-1, they've dropped 6 of the last 8 games. They are currently 4-2 at home, outscoring opponents with an average score of 20.8 - 16.3. They also have had success against quarterbacks at home, holding them to an average rating of 75.24. Luckily, Kurt Warner's average QB rating on the road is 116.8. Let's take a look at five keys to Cardinals success on Monday night.

Protect Kurt Warner.This was what hurt the Cardinals chances at winning week 1 against the 49ers. The 49ers defensive line had the killer-instinct and was able to successfully rush four, while dropping 7-8 in coverage all game. As a result, Warner was sacked 3 times and threw 2 interceptions. The Cardinals may take the same approach they used against the Minnesota Vikings. They were able to contain the Vikings front four, and finally game the offensive line help with running back and tight end support. If Kurt Warner is given time, he can pick any defense apart, especially a 49er defense without top cornerback Nate Clements.
Contain Vernon Davis. That is obviously easier said then done but limiting the 4th year tight end is a huge step in the right direction on Sunday. He caught 5 passes for 40 yards the first time these teams met, but since then Davis has 58 catches for 741 yards and 10 touchdowns. Considering the Cardinals are one of the worst defenses at containing tight ends, they'll want to add an extra eye on number 85 throughout the game. It should also be worth noting that since Alex Smith took over at the midpoint against Houston, Vernon Davis has 40 catches for 513 yards and 7 touchdowns in only 6 1/2 games. Davis is the 49ers best option on offense and taking him out of the equation gives Smith one less threat to throw to.
Keep the defense rolling. The Cardinals defense surprised many when they were able to stifle a dangerous Minnesota Vikings team a week ago. They did so by getting pressure without taking away coverage. They also mixed up their scheme, something we haven't seen a lot of this year. The Cardinals should take the 49ers defensive gameplan and pressure Smith with a 3 or 4 man front. Since Alex Smith took over for the 49ers, in 4 losses Smith's been sacked 12 times. In the two wins, Smith was only sacked twice. If the Cardinals can at least register 4 sacks on the day and force any ill-advised throws, Smith and the 49ers will be in for a long day.
Wide receivers need to have a big game. The last time these teams met, Steve Breaston didn't play and Anquan Boldin was forced to limp into the game on an injured hamstring. Nate Clements, a defensive back for the 49ers that has regularly limited Cardinals receivers in the past - will not play on Monday. That means two of the three receivers will be healthy while Fitz and company don't have to worry about Clements. The offensive play calling is built around the receivers, and if Warner has the time to find them we should see a similar result as last week.
Play a well-rounded game and limit mental errors. In week 1, the Cardinals turned the ball over twice, 12 penalties for 82 yards, were 4-14 on 3rd down, and only rushed for 40 yards. Lately much of those problems have disappeared and the Cardinals should keep it that way against the 49ers. They're rushing has improved, and Beanie Wells is much more a part of the offense then he was in week 1. Kurt Warner hasn't turned the ball over in over a month and they've seemed to lower the penalty issues that plagued them at the start of the season. If the Cardinals can put together a well-balanced performance and keep mistakes to a minimum, they should have no problem hammering the last nail in the 49ers coffin.

If the Cardinals are able to stick to their game plan and not get ahead of themselves, a win shouldn't be too much of a problem in San Francisco. The 49ers usually give the Cardinals a challenge, but if they want to establish themselves as an elite team in the NFL and improve their playoff positioning, this is a must win game. What are your keys to the game and why?

Who Would You Take From The San Francisco 49ers?

Andrew602 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:01:25 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Adding Patrick Willis to the Cardinals would bring more leadership and vastly improve the Cardinals run-defense.

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With the Monday night match up not far ahead, we can start preparing to face the San Francisco 49ers. It may sound difficult to want any players from a division rival on the Arizona Cardinals, but in all honesty, the 49ers are filled with talent. Their 5-7 record may not show it, but the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league and are starting to gel on offense. Remember that who you pick can be a young or older player, a starter or a back up, etc. You can also take their current contract status into consideration, as if we were actually signing the player. Also look at who may be leaving our team after this season. Here are some of my picks.

Before you look over the list, head over to Niners Nation to check out who they have interest in taking from our very own Cardinals and make sure to voice your opinion if you feel they're overlooking some certain players.

Patrick Willis, LB: This had to be the easiest/most obvious pick from the 49ers. He's a tackling machine(123 tackles leads the league) and has really developed to be one of the best linebackers in the league. Willis is a smart defender that can play the run(as their 5th ranked 95.4 rushing yards per game shows), and he's improving in coverage(6 PD, 2 INT). The former rookie of the year is only 24 years old, and with the uncertainty of Karlos Dansby returning next season, adding Willis would fill a tremendous need.

Vernon Davis, TE: As much as it pains me to say, I would like to have Vernon Davis as a Cardinal. He seems to have turned a new leaf this season and it's showed on the field. Already being a dominant run-blocker, Davis has turned it up a notch at the receiving end and is currently tied with Larry Fitzgerald with a league-leading 10 receiving touchdowns on the year. Adding Davis would surely fix our tight end situation and give us a young receiving/blocking tight end for years. Doesn't it seem like most teams have better tight ends then the Cardinals?

Aubrayo Franklin, DT: Franklin has gradually developed into one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in the league. He's also one of the more underrated defenders on the 49ers. The 49ers have had much success stopping the run and much of that stems from Franklin's ability to fill the defensive gaps. He seems to be ever-improving all facets of his game, as he's recorded 2 sacks on the year and also has 1 interception. With Bryan Robinson's age becoming a liability, and the uncertainty of Alan Branch and Gabe Watson, adding Franklin would leave no Cardinals fans worried about the defensive tackle position.

Joe Staley, OT: Staley returns to action this upcoming Monday and the former 1st round pick has been missed by the 49ers. Although Barry Sims has filled in with solid play at tackle, he's not as well rounded as Staley has been the last two seasons. He's still developing but his pass-protection would be greatly welcomed in Arizona. In the seven games this year, Staley has only allowed 2 sacks and hasn't committed any penalties. With how Levi Brown and Mike Gandyhave fared this season, adding Staley would fill a large void.

Honorable mentions: Nate Clements, Justin Smith, Manny Lawson

Ok so that's my list for this week. Don't forget to see what the Niners fans are saying and who they'd pick over at Niners Nation. Who would you take from the 49ers and why?

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Know Thy Enemy

Pyromnc — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

5 days ago: San Francisco 49ers' Vernon Davis scores a touchdown in the first quarter with Seattle Seahawks' Aaron Curry in pursuit during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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When playing the San Francisco 49ers the past few years, you used to only worry about one player. That player was running back Frank Gore. While he is still a threat on offense, he hasn't been quite as good as he has been the last few games. This can be attributed to the new offense that has been made to make new starting quarterback Alex Smith comfortable. Since then, the dominate player has been tight end Vernon Davis.

Vernon Davis had been a tight end that wasn't producing the kind of numbers you'd expect for a player that had a lot of hype surrounding him coming out of the NFL Draft. Through his first three years he had compiled just nine touchdowns and 1132 receiving yards. This year was going to be a different year however. After he was publicly embarrassed by head coach Mike Singletary last season, he vowed to come out and play as hard as he possibly could in 2009. This would turn out to be a good thing for the Niners because not only would he become a team captain, but he would also become their best receiver.

For the 2009 season Davis had a decent start catching 22 passes for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns over 5 games, which wasn't bad for a tight end but he could've done better. This would become evident when the Niners would change their starting quarterback from Shaun Hill to Alex Smith. Once that happened Davis caught 41 passes for 519 yards and 7 touchdowns over 6 games. Those were the type of numbers the Niners were expecting after drafting him with the sixth overall pick. This is something the Arizona Cardinals will have to worry about as they have not particularly been stellar against opposing team's tight ends.

Over the course of this season the Cardinals have given up over eight touchdowns to tight ends. This has been a problem for them the past few seasons and will be one the Niners will be sure to test against them on Monday night. In the seven games the Cardinals have matched up with Davis they have contained him pretty well holding him to just over 250 yards and 3 touchdowns. They haven't faced him since they changed to a spread offense however, so this will surely be a test for the Cardinals safeties as they will need to shut him down if they want to lock up the division. Thoughts?

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:32 -0000

vs.

While this game lost a lot of its luster with the Sunday's 49ers loss and Cardinals win, it still should provide an entertaining football experience. As folks were trying to develop a legit 49ers-Seahawks rivalry, the 49ers quietly developed a rivalry with the Arizona Cardinals. Even though there have been numerous sweeps of the series, the games usually are highly competitive, if not going down close to the wire. Even if the 49ers are all but eliminated from playoff contention, this game provides a chance for the team to take a step forward in execution and build towards 2010.

The 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals in what will be the 37th meeting between the two teams, with San Francisco holding a 20-16 advantage in the series. In the season opener earlier this year, the 49ers defeated the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium, 20-16.

San Francisco enters the upcoming game following a 20-17 defeat in Seattle. In that game, QB Alex Smith connected on 27 of 45 passes for a career-high 310 yards, which included a 33-yard touchdown pass to TE Vernon Davis for his 10th receiving touchdown on the year (tied for 1st in NFL and a new single-season record among 49ers TE’s all-time) and a 22-yard touchdown reception by WR Josh Morgan to mark his third score of the season. It marked the second week in a row that the 49ers defense had posted at least 5 sacks in a game, having had 6 sacks against the Jaguars before notching 5 sacks against the Seahawks.

The 49ers have won 7 of their past 9 home games and have a 38-24 overall record on Monday Night Football.

49ers-Cardinals Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers defensive coordinator Greg Manusky was a teammate of Cardinals assistant head coach/OL coach Russ Grimm with the Washington Redskins from 1988-91. Manusky played linebacker, while Grimm played offensive guard.
• 49ers TE coach Pete Hoener has had coaching stints with the Cardinals in both St. Louis (1985-86) and Arizona (2001-03).
• 49ers WR coach Jerry Sullivan spent 3 seasons as the Cardinals offensive coordinator from 2001-03.
• 49ers special teams coordinator Al Everest coached in the same capacity for the Cardinals from 1996-99.
• Cardinals LB coach Billy Davis was the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2005-06.

FORMER CARDINALS - 49ers K Joe Nedney spent three seasons with the Cardinals from 1997-99 ... 49ers G Tony Wragge was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cardinals in 2002. Wragge spent 2 seasons (2002-03) with Arizona.

PANTHER PRIDE - 49ers CB Shawntae Spencer and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald were teammates at the Univ. of Pittsburgh from 2000-03.

FORMER 49ERS - Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor spent the first 4 years of his career with the 49ers after being drafted in the 3rd round (89th overall) of the 1999 NFL Draft.

HAIL THE VICTORS - 49ers G David Baas played at Michigan alongside Cardinals DT Gabe Watson, DT Alan Branch and WR Steve Breaston.

CARDINALS NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS - Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington played 2 seasons at Cal.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 36
Series Record: 49ers lead series 20-16
49ers Home Record vs. Cardinals: 49ers Lead Series 11-8
First Meeting: 11/15/51, Cardinals win, 27-21, at San Francisco
Last Meeting: 9/13/09, 49ers win, 20-16, at Arizona
Current Streak: Won 1
Longest 49ers Win Streak: 5 (9/14/80-10/18/87 | 10/24/93-12/21/02)
Longest Cards Win Streak: 4 (10/6/74-12/2/79 | 10/2/05-12/24/06)
Most 49ers Points: 50 (12/7/03): 50-14, at San Francisco
Most Cardinals Points: 34 (Two Times): Last (10/6/74), 34-9 at SF
49ers Shutouts: None
Cardinals Shutouts: None

SAN FRANCISCO 20, ARIZONA 16
At Glendale, AZ, September 13, 2009

Head coach Mike Singletary delivered a very simple message to his team in advance of their season opening matchup against the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals … "Believe." His players did just that as they battled through a tremendously physical game highlighted by impressive defensive efforts from both squads. After being stymied on offense for more than 3 quarters, the 49ers embarked on a 15-play, 80-yd. drive that consumed 7:26 of clock time en route to a 3-yd., go-ahead TD pass from QB Shaun Hill to RB Frank Gore. On the drive, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye scrapped the run game that he had dialed up all afternoon and left the contest to Hill’s right arm. The QB responded going 9 of 13 for 72 yds. and the TD to Gore. On the series, Hill utilized his playmakers, including TE Vernon Davis who hauled in 4 passes for 35 yds.

The 49ers opened the scoring in the 1st quarter after All-Pro LB Patrick Willis intercepted a QB Kurt Warner pass to set his team up at the ARZ 36. Six plays later K Joe Nedney connected on a 37-yd. FG. Nedney later connected on a 50-yd. FG to give the Niners a 6-0 lead entering the 2nd stanza. The Cardinals finally got some offense going in the 2nd quarter as K Neil Rackers drilled a 44-yd. FG on their first possession. As the 49ers run game continued to struggle, Hill aired the ball out to All-Pro WR Isaac Bruce on a 50-yd. bomb, setting the offense up at the 6-yd. line. With a tired Arizona defense, the 49ers called on Gore the very next play. He hit pay dirt plunging through a massive hole into the endzone.

With the momentum in their favor, CB Nate Clements capitalized on another Warner mistake, as he hauled in his first interception of the year. Clements’ effort, and those of his defensive backfield mates, limited one of the game’s best WR tandems in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, to a combined 8 recepts. for 90 yds. and 1 TD. The 49ers were unable to capitalize on Clements’ pick, as Hill was sacked and forced to fumble on the next series. The Cardinals jumped on the opportunity, posting another Rackers’ FG this time from 29 yds. San Francisco left the field at the half with a 13-6 lead.

The Cardinals carried momentum into the 3rd quarter, and on their 2nd possession, Warner led his team on 69-yd scoring drive that resulted in a 5-yd. TD pass to Fitzgerald, knotting the score at 13. After a 49ers 3-n-out, Arizona again moved the ball to post points, a 43-yd. FG by Rackers just seconds into the 4th quarter, for the Cardinals final points of the game. The Niners would then embark on their game-winning drive and back it up with a defensive performance that paralyzed the Cardinals.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		CARDINALS (rank)
5-7 (t-2nd NFCW)	Record	8-4 (1st NFCW)
20.4 (19th)	Points per game	24.8 (9th)
285.4 (28th)	Total Offense	360.9 (10th)
91.3 (28th)	Rushing Offense	94.1 (26th)
194.2 (22nd)	Passing Offense	266.8 (5th)
28:55 (20th)	Possession Avg	30:41 (12th)
19.4 (t-10th)	Points allowed/gm	19.5 (12th)
346.4 (20th)	Total Defense	362.6 (24th)
95.8 (5th)	Rushing Defense	104.8 (12th)
250.6 (27th)	Passing Defense	257.8 (30th)
30 (t-7th)	Sacks	35 (3rd)
48.3 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	47.4 (3rd)
+1 (t-11th)	Turnover Differential	-3 (t-21st)

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

5 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Seahawks 20 - 49ers 17: Upon further reflection...

Fooch — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:21:53 -0000

Yea it still hurts. Now that people have had time to spew some venom, I thought we'd take time to actually look at a few aspects of the game. Please keep in mind that site decorum is back in effect in this thread. If you feel the need to swear, head over to the initial recap thread. There is a lot to discuss about this game, so I'm just cherry-picking a few topics. We'll have plenty more starting first thing tomorrow morning (7 or 8am pacific). Also, just a reminder that our SNF thread for Vikings-Cardinals is here.

Referees
People say teams shouldn't make excuses, but for once I'm perfectly fine at least complaining about officiating. In the end the blame for the loss lies with the team, but that does not mean the referees get a free pass. The referees were absolutely atrocious in this game. The biggest problem with the officiating was not that they were so bad, but that they were so one-sided in their bad calls. It started with the horrific no-call in the end zone involving Delanie Walker and proceeded throughout the game. It was downright embarrassing at times. Again, it's not the final blame for the loss, but it's most definitely worth complaining about.

Vernon Davis
I think Dub4lif3 had the best reaction to Vernon Davis's performance today: "Vernon...you let our season slip through your sometimes great hands." Vernon Davis is so close to being the clear-cut best tight end in the league. He can make huge plays, he can handle most any defender. If he could just go over some of the mind-numbing mistakes, Vernon could be such a monster. Some will argue the stats he puts up are enough, but when you're taking points off the board, I have to hold that against you. If he wants to be the best tight end in 49ers history (a very distinct possibility given his current development), he needs to be bringing down those game winning touchdown catches, pure and simple.

Game Management
This felt like a Mike Nolan speciality. When the team blew all three first half timeouts in the first 9 minutes of the game, things definitely were not feeling right. When you use a timeout before the first play of the game, something is clearly not working. The 49ers have come across as a disorganized team too many times this season. I definitely think this falls on Singletary, but I'm certainly not saying we need to find a new coach. That would be ridiculous. Mike Singletary continues to learn how to be an NFL head coach, and some coaches take longer than others to figure this out.

Ross Tucker
I know this is a bit petty, but Ross Tucker is an atrocious announcer. Just absolutely awful. And Chris Myers should go back down to the sideline.

Playoffs
Obviously the team is not mathematically eliminated. An Arizona loss tonight does keep some small hope alive. Personally I think the 49ers playoff hopes are on a respirator, with the Philadelphia Eagles ready in two weeks to pull the plug. While Atlanta was under-manned today, Philly looked really good on offense, and I just don't see the 49ers going in there and pulling the upset.

However, with the Cardinals coming to town next Monday night, I suppose some folks will stay excited about playoff chances. I'm not prepared to start thinking about the offseason too much at this point, but I realize the position the 49ers now find themselves. So I guess that puts me in some kind of football purgatory.

You can discuss more than just these topics of course. However, in terms of front page posts, I'm thinking tomorrow morning will be an Alex Smith-related post. I'm going to hold off on the game management issues in more depth until the Singletary approval rating post on Tuesday.

Matt Hasselbeck Slings to Deon Butler for 32 and Game Winning Field Goal Range

John Morgan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:15:19 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Matt Hasselbeck's pass to Deion Branch bent like a curveball and sought like a missile.

Browse more photos »

Matt Hasselbeck gets the game ball.

The NFL Draft is designed to assist weaker teams and create parity. Bad teams get better players and become better teams. The very worst teams can pick any player to help rebuild their franchise around. That intent has been disputed by research conducted by Massey and Thaler. Common wisdom is that rookies are overpaid and the strict salary structure punishes bad teams by awarding them potentially crippling investments.

Two things are true: High salaries in the top ten punish bad teams by increasing how much is risked. The best players are usually drafted early.

The San Francisco 49ers started eight picks selected in the top fifty: Alex Smith (1), Vernon Davis (6), Michael Crabtree (10), Patrick Willis (11), Manny Lawson (22), Joe Staley (28), David Bass (33) and Chilo Rachal (38). It took a lot of ass football to assemble that cast. If not for the 90s Niners spilling into the early 2000s, San Francisco would have a dog in the race for worst team of the new millennium.

Smith looked like a competent if unsexy quarterback. Dilfer with a better arm. He's 25.

Davis ran a 4.38 forty. Match him against Aaron Curry on a crossing route and Curry is probably going to get burned.

Crabtree is athletic and explosive and-Oh shit! Lawyer Milloy!

I won't continue fawning. My point is that Seattle beat a better team than itself today. It beat a younger team with far greater resources invested in that youth. It beat that team because the 49ers are better than Seattle, but not significantly.

Josh Wilson was the best all around cornerback playing today. He is a fiend against the wide receiver screen, aware and responsive to his surroundings like a Shaolin Monk. Wilson isn't a stride-for-stride, Asomugha-like shutdown corner. He's a zone corner, but a hell of a zone corner, and drafted to play in a zone scheme. He was supposed to be Ronde. He's supposed to bury the screen, intercept the bounce, jump the route and find the fumble and fly.

Brandon Mebane is an incredible machine. He's a backloaded piston; a battering ram shaped like candy corn. The day Mebane synced to NFL snap counts he became a great young defensive tackle. Mebane is quick, powerful and hard to block. Seattle doesn't need Suh to showcase Mebane, just someone better than Rocky Bernard, Colin Cole, Craig Terrill and the whole sick crew. Like, motile matter -- ambulatory would be an upgrade.

Jordan Babineaux is a young, cheap and functional free safety.

Tim Ruskell never did rebuild but he added some talent while the core rotted. Seattle's next GM inherits a heck of a fine position. I hope he realizes it.

. . .

Two years ago I faced the Shaun Alexander dilemma. Alexander was no longer a good running back. On his best days rushing, he was still a liability as a receiver and pass blocker. But he was beloved even by we who hated watching him. I never feared a miraculous recovery disproving all my theories. I cringed because others saw a miraculous recovery every time he rushed for five.

Hasselbeck isn't there. Quarterbacks do not fall like running backs fall. Losing a little arm strength is not like losing the first gear that got you the job. Hasselbeck can toss a nice pass when he needs. The bender over the defender to Deion Branch was indefensible pass at its best. He threw another high-arcing bomb to Branch that Branch lost behind the defender. It was pretty for a second. Real pretty.

Unlike seeing Shaun sprinting for fourteen, I never cringed seeing Hasselbeck spark to life. It was thrilling. Hasselbeck was never a great quarterback. Well, screw that. Matt Hasselbeck is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play American football. Any quarterback that's made a Pro Bowl can claim that. Hasselbeck is not Manning or within the discussion. He's not Fouts or Unitas or Tarkenton or Marino or-

But HE's THE BEST GODDAMN QUARTERBACK WE'VE EVER HAD!!

Game ball guy. I hope you find a team to make your last few millions in the league with. And I hope that team is not the Seattle Seahawks.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 12

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Yesterday, I noted some pretty promising statistical improvements for the 49ers' OFF. Today, we'll see whether stats and rankings for the Niners' offensive players have also improved as one would expect; or perhaps the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? To this end, I'll be adding the same kind of change stats I've started presenting in my other posts this week. Again, it's the direction of change, not necessarily its magnitude, that's more important from my perspective.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 90 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 96 carries, WRs need at least 38 targets, and TEs need at least 18 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 208 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Pass	0.20	24	0.20	25	0.00	+1
YAR per Pass	0.50	23	0.12	25	+0.38	+2
EYds per Pass	5.31	25	5.23	25	+0.08	0
Yds per Pass	5.78	25	5.81	24	-0.03	-1
DVOA	-7.9%	24	-7.9%	25	0.0%	0
VOA	-3.2%	23	-9.2%	25	+6.0%	+2

As you can see, the only things that have showed any meaningful improvement are Smith's unadjusted stats, YAR/P and VOA. Not surprisingly, the 49ers' unadjusted OFF Pass VOA is what showed meaningful improvement among their team stats. Obviously, Smith threw every pass against the Jaguars, so this is kind of a "duh" finding. However, the important point is that Smith and the Niners had a productive passing attack against JAX, but more than just "productive" is what was expected against the 31st-ranked JAX pass DEF. Nevertheless, you have to crawl before you walk, so Smith and the Niners' pass OFF need to pass well against bad pass DEFs before he/they can start passing well against good DEFs.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 128 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Run	0.48	20	0.58	17	-0.10	-3
YAR per Run	0.30	25	0.48	20	-0.18	-5
EYds per Run	4.20	22	4.38	22	-0.18	0
Yds per Run	5.03	5	5.46	3	-0.43	-2
DVOA	3.3%	19	6.2%	16	-2.9%	-3
VOA	-0.9%	24	3.6%	18	-4.5%	-6

Interesting, eh? Gore's stats - adjusted and unadjusted - got worse across the board, yet, the 49ers' Rush OFF VOA improved after the Jags game and their Rush OFF DVOA stayed essentially the same. What gives?

Well, there are two phenomena at play here. First, realize that play-by-play efficiency as a team is compared to the average of other NFL teams, whereas play-by-play efficiency as an individual is compared to the average of other players at that position. So, it seems as though the Niners' running game is getting better relative to the rest of the league, but Gore's running is getting worse relative to other RBs. Second - and this should be far more obvious - Gore's not the only player carrying the ball in the Niners' run OFF. As it specifically relates to the Jags game, remember that Delanie Walker had an 11-yard carry on 2nd & 2, and Alex Smith had a 10-yard scramble on 2nd & 7, both of which are considered highly efficient plays according to DVOA.

So, keep these two points in mind as we move forward in the post. They're going to reappear a few more times before we're done.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Here are Crabtree's stats through 44 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.43	67	-0.22	60	-0.21	-7
YAR per Target	-0.02	61	0.03	58	-0.05	-3
EYds per Target	5.16	71	5.47	67	-0.31	-4
Yds per Target	7.86	36	8.11	33	-0.25	-3
DVOA	-18.9%	69	-15.7%	62	-3.2%	-7
VOA	-13.1%	62	-12.3%	58	-0.8%	-4

Like Gore, we see decline across the board when it comes to Crabtree. However, you'll notice that each of his adjusted stats declined more drastically than his unadjusted stats. So, his stats display similar opponent-dependent characteristics to that of Smith. Hope you're sensing a theme here. Regardless, though, I'll say the same thing I did last week: I'm not worried about Crabs, no matter what the stats say.

Here are Morgan's stats through 51 targets so far this season:

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.41	65	0.16	55	-0.57	-10
YAR per Target	0.10	57	0.42	50	-0.32	-7
EYds per Target	5.67	67	6.56	54	-0.89	-13
Yds per Target	6.82	55	7.09	51	-0.27	-4
DVOA	-18.0%	66	-10.5%	55	-7.5%	-11
VOA	-11.5%	58	-7.3%	50	-4.2%	-8

OK. This is a little bit more problematic for me because these are massive declines across the board. It almost defies belief that Morgan's EYds/T can drop that much from targets 44 to 51 on the season. I still say that Morgan will be fine in the long-run as a productive #2 WR once he learns his new position. However, what his stats show is that, contrary to how the saying goes, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. Having only 2 successful plays in 8 targets, and only 1 reception go for more than 10 yards, against the 29th-ranked pass DEF against #2 WRs pretty much defines inefficiency.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 92 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	1.18	18	1.08	17	+0.10	-1
YAR per Target	1.21	18	1.10	19	+0.11	+1
EYds per Target	7.80	19	7.53	21	+0.27	+2
Yds per Target	7.28	19	7.24	22	+0.04	+3
DVOA	11.8%	18	10.4%	18	1.4%	0
VOA	12.2%	18	10.6%	18	1.6%	0

If I could call Alex Smith "the #25 QB in the NFL" last week based on the consistency of his rankings, then I can dub VD "the #18 TE in the NFL." Of course, that's far more tongue-in-cheek than my Smith evaluation. We all know VD's much better than his stats show, and, after last week's post, we should all know that the reason these stats are what they are is because VD's tied for 2nd-most-targeted TE in the NFL. So bottom line is, don't freak out.

What is accurately reflected in the table is the fact that the Niners' overall pass OFF improvement has ridden the wave of VD (Aside: Sorry for all the nautical references today. I'm trying to give the STD references a week off.). It's clear that, based on his number of targets, the pass OFF goes as VD goes; based on his increasing EYards/T, VD goes as his new downfield-passing QB goes; and based on his DVOA, the Niners' level of efficiency in the passing game goes as throwing the ball downfield to VD goes.

Finally, as this is my last chance to really mention it, I'll just also quickly note that the Smith did a really good job of spreading the ball around against JAX. Specifically, among the 3 pass catchers I've detailed today, VD had 9 targets, Morgan had 8 targets, and Crabtree had 7 targets. For sure, this is a pleasant development. Having 3 legitimate options in the passing attack definitely beats having 1, which seemed to be the case just 8 weeks ago.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here's the OL's directional run-blocking chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

In my enthusiasm over Adjusted BS Rate, I totally forgot to mention the fact that the 49ers' OL is now ranked dead last in the league. Granted, their actual ALY only dropped 0.02 yards per carry, but it's still an ignominious achievement. Once again, though, it's interesting to see how, although the Niners' Rush OFF DVOA has gotten considerably better since Smith took over at QB, the OL deserves very little, if any, of the credit. This doesn't really fit well with my theory related to the run-blocking benefits of increased shotgun, so I'm pretty much stumped. All I can think of is that perhaps (a) more of the rush OFF's short gains are ending up as "successful plays" because of the down and distance, and/or (b) adjusting line yards for the caliber of an opponents' DF7 is different than adjusting Rush OFF DVOA for the caliber of an opponents' rush DEF overall. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again in this post.

With respect to directional ALY, not much has changed. The OL continues to improve in LE ALY, but that's still most likely due to a regression to the mean; and the same thing probably goes for RE ALY given they don't run the ball in that direction very much either. Otherwise, the glaring problem remains. Jimmy Raye loves to run the ball up the middle despite the fact that his OL absolutely sucks blocking in that direction.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

Here's the DF7's directional run-stopping chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

The big changes here occurred on runs up the middle and behind RT. Essentially, the DF7 got struck by a triple whammy of (a) having JAX run the ball fewer times in those directions than the 49ers were previously accustomed to, (b) having those runs go for more yardage than the 49ers were previously accustomed to allowing, and (c) having those yards allowed come via the directions in which the otherwise-top-tier JAX OL were least proficient. Add those 3 things up and you have a DF7 whose C/G ALY ranking dropped 6 spots (up 0.40 yards per carry), and whose RT ALY ranking dropped 3 spots (up 0.13 yards per carry). At least in this instance the changes in player stats matched the changes in team stats: remember, the Niners' Rush DEF DVOA got 1.4% worse after the JAX game.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

Pretty much everything is the same here, including the fact that starting Dre Bly didn't seem to adversely affect the Niners' pass DEF against opposing #1 WRs. Of course, defending Mike Sims-Walker is just a tad bit easier than defending Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Greg Jennings. There is one descent-sized change, though: DVOA against receiving RBs. Another week, another game full of screen passes that gouge the 49ers' pass DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 11 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Still better than Hill, though not as instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement as you might think.
Frank Gore: Making the 49ers' run OFF better, but not making his own stats better.
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: Instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement.
The OL: Now officially the worst in the league.
The DF7: Great when not encountering triple whammies.
The secondary: Still better without Nate Clements; not better with Dre Bly.

Later this morning: 49ers-Seahawks game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Time for the Road to the NFC Championship to Take a Detour

ericj69 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:58:09 -0000

After Sunday night's game, they'll need to stick these outside of University of Phoenix Stadium if people are looking for the road to the Super Bowl.

View full size photo »

The Arizona Cardinals, defending NFC Champions, are well on their way to winning their second consecutive NFC West title this year.

If you would have read me that sentence two years ago, I would have told you to send me the link to the rest of the article from The Onion, since it was obviously a joke. (If you had read me that sentence in 2001, I would have just assumed you knew nothing about the NFL since Arizona was obviously in the NFC East. You hypothetical dumbass from the past.)

But it's true. Arizona somehow made the Super Bowl last year. The same team that Tarvaris Jackson torched for an easy Minnesota 35-14 win in Arizona last year. And even after Vince Young gave Matt Leinart an acid flashback of the 2006 Rose Bowl last week, the Cardinals are still perched atop their division by two games. (Note: I totally didn't mean to make the lame "Cardinals/perched" pun there, but I'm not surprised that I accidentally did.) Technically, the road to the NFC Championship still runs through Glendale, AZ.

But only until Sunday night, if everything goes well for the Vikes. A win for the Purple means the road to Super Bowl XLIV takes a detour away from Arizona.

If the Vikings prevail in the desert, they'll guarantee that Arizona would get the third seed in the NFC at the very best, assuring the Cardinals will have to go on the road to make it back to the Super Bowl. (Yes, I realize they won a road game to get there last year, but they still won the NFC Championship at home. Just stay with my flimsy detour theme here. I posted a picture of a sign and everything.)

But just like creating real detours, we shouldn't expect this one to go smoothly. Yes, Favre is exponentially better than T-Jax. However, we're not the only team that has a Social Security-eligible quarterback that's still playing well. I know Kurt Warner missed last week's game, but I'd be surprised if he didn't play based on what I've heard this week. We have a strong core of receivers in El Sid, Percy, B-Twice, and Shank. But Larry Fitzgerald is still the best receiver in the game (you can mention Andre Johnson here, but he's tied with Fitz at the very best). Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are nothing to sneeze at either. If ever there was a game for Antoine Winfield to make his glorious return to the field, it's this one.

And would you look at this--the Cardinals even brought a little bit of a running game this year. They even average more than 2.3 yards a carry! Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower aren't greatest backfield committee ever (that's Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen, of course) but they've added a dimension to Arizona that wasn't really there last year.

Most of us know that stopping the Cards' offense will be tough. But what about the D? From what I've seen of Arizona and learned from the guys over at Revenge Of The Birds, they're better than the numbers show. They're 24th in total yards, but still in the top half of the league in points allowed and tied for fourth in sacks. Defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could give our line some trouble. Karlos Dansby leads the team in tackles and will be a tough test for our running game. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is not only annoying to type out, he's also annoying to play against. If Favre can't duplicate his zero-interception November, DRC is always a threat to take picks back to the house. I'd still take Minnesota's defense over Arizona's any day, but it doesn't mean we'll be able to duplicate the easy day in the desert we had last year.

While it would be nice to take another step towards Dome-field advantage, it would also be good to get another victory against a winning team. The only issue the critics have taken with Minnesota this year is "who have they played?" To be honest, the critics have a point. As Bill Simmons said today in his article:

Combined record of the nine teams they've defeated this season: 39-71. Let's give them 2009 Winston Wolf Memorial "Don't Start Sucking Each Other's Popsicles Yet" status.

A win on the road over the 7-4 Cards would give us a little more credibility heading towards the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the detour from Arizona might go south to New Orleans even if Minnesota is victorious on Sunday. I'm sure most of you saw the Saints absolutely disassemble the Patriots on Monday night. The Saints offense is formidable to say the least, but that's not what worries me most about N'awlins. That Superdome crowd was absolutely BONKERS the entire game. Could you imagine them in an NFC Championship Game with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance on the line? My ear drums are throbbing just thinking about it. Let's hope the Saints drop a couple games down the stretch so we can show them how loud the Metrodome can get in late January. But first thing's first--let's start the construction for the detour on Sunday!

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cardinals 24

The rest of my Week 13 NFL picks (home team in CAPS):

COLTS over Titans: These teams are six games apart in the standings, yet they may be the best two teams in the AFC right now. The Titans make an intriguing upset pick here--until you realize it's still Vince Young vs. Peyton Manning. Young is a winner, but he still throws like Uncle Rico.

Texans over JAGUARS: Would you ever pick either of these teams to win a game if your life depended on it? This game could a blowout either way and I can honestly say I wouldn't be surprised. Let's just move on before I change this pick like I already have six times.

Broncos over CHIEFS: The Chiefs as a team are as broken as Tiger Woods' Escalade. But don't tell that to Jamaal Charles, your 2009 Late-Season Fantasy Pickup From A Terrible Team MVP!

STEELERS over Raiders: The Steelers are on a three-game losing streak. If you had to pick an NFL team to play at home to break a three-game losing streak, wouldn't just about everyone pick the Raiders? I sure would.

Saints over REDSKINS: Yeah, that whole "Detour to Minnesota" theme of my column isn't going to get any help from Washington this week.

BENGALS over Lions: My Eliminator pick of the week--still alive at 12-0! If the Bengals lose two games in the easiest stretch of scheduling ever (Oakland-Cleveland-Detroit), they should be relegated to the UFL.

BEARS over Rams: Two weeks ago, the Seahawks came to the Dome and got pounded. They got to play the Rams the following week. Last week, the Bears came to the Dome and got embarrassed. They get to play the Rams this week. Call it the "NFL Scheduling Mercy Rule".

PANTHERS over Buccaneers: Jake Delhomme is out this week. Does that help or hurt Carolina's chances? Really, I'm serious. I've never even heard of Matt Moore until this week, but I can't imagine he'd be any worse.

Eagles over FALCONS: No Matty Ice for Atlanta this week. Which means they'll have to switch to McNabbelob Golden Light.

Chargers over BROWNS: I literally ran out of jokes to make about the Browns. So instead, I'll treat you to the best NFL theme song ever:

As a bonus, I'll also treat you to the Charger cheerleaders:

There--I bet you've forgotten all about those rotten Browns by now!

GIANTS over Cowboys: It's December. You know what that means Cowboy fans! Time for some melting down!

49ers over SEAHAWKS: Meh. I just need Vernon Davis and Frank Gore to have big weeks for me to clinch the regular season title in one of my fantasy leagues. So I'm picking San Fran.

Patriots over DOLPHINS: The Patriots don't lose two games in a row. I think it's a league rule or something.

Ravens over PACKERS: I have a bunch of Packer fan friends that are heading to Lambeau for this game. Please oh please, Baltimore, ruin their day for me!

Last week: 11-5

Season so far: 123-54 (including getting Thursday's game wrong)

49ers-Seahawks: Julius Jones vs. Justin Forsett

Fooch — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:30:13 -0000

I forgot to get yesterday's practice report posted yesterday afternoon, so I've posted it after the jump, along with the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator press conference transcripts. I actually wanted to use the injury report to raise an issue about the 49ers defensive challenge this Sunday. As the practice report indicates, Seahawks RB Julius Jones has been a full participant in practice the last two days. I'd imagine at worst he'll be listed as probable when the injury report is published later today.

For fantasy purposes, the folks at Rotoworld seem to think this will likely end up as some kind of time-share in the backfield. In looking at that, I'm curious if this might end up benefiting the 49ers on Sunday. For the last three weeks, former Cal RB Justin Forsett has been the #1 running back for the Seahawks. If you check out his game log, he's had two fantastic games, and one solid game in terms of receiving:

Week 10 - @ Arizona - 17 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD, 5 rec, 26 yards
Week 11 - @ Minnesota - 8 carries, 9 yards, 1 TD, 8 rec, 80 yards
Week 12 - @ St. Louis - 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD, no receptions

And Julius Jones? He's gone over 100 yards once in nine weeks, and over 50 yards two other times.

For the 49ers this weekend, it will basically come down to containing the running game and seeing what you can get by with against TJ Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson. Does a running back by committee, or even Julius Jones as the clear #1 guy give the 49ers defense an advantage? Or does it really matter? I've read around where Jim Mora has said he'd go with the hot hand, which would seem to indicate Forsett. But what will really come of this?

After the jump, check out the injury report and the OC/DC press transcripts...

49ers
Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)

Did not Participate in Practice
DT Kentwan Balmer (shoulder)
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
S Mark Roman (not injury related)
DT Justin Smith (not injury related)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)
T Joe Staley (knee)

Limited Participation in Practice
CB Marcus Hudson (back)
RB Michael Robinson (shoulder)

Full Participation in Practice
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
WR Brandon Jones (thumb)
DT Ray McDonald (shoulder)
T Adam Snyder (shoulder)

Seahawks
Did not Participate in Practice
DE Lawrence Jackson (groin)
LB D.D. Lewis (knee)
DE Cory Redding (concussion)

Full Participation in Practice
RB Julius Jones (chest)
C Chris Spencer (thumb)

Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky
Post-Walk Thru - December 3, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On his expectations for this week:

"Every time we go into a game plan, we want to go out there and perform to the best of our abilities and come out of the game with a win. I don't care how we get it, that's what we need to do."

On what he sees in Seattle going into Sunday's game:

"I think new offensive coordinator, Greg Knapp. I think the timing and the rhythm is there that they've had when he was in Oakland. Now, they feel a little bit more comfortable with the timing and the execution with the quarterback. It's a little bit quicker pace. That's what I see."

On how the team can improve its tackling:

"I think every time that, especially in team periods, you've got guys tagging off. I think that's the most important thing, make sure they come to balance and try to get their wheels underneath them and tag the runners off. We've been preaching that all week. We have all training camp, all OTAs, all regular season. We've just got to understand that we've got to take better angles to the ball carrier and make the plays when they're there."

On S Dashon Goldson's tackling:

"I think it's a little bit of his angles coming to the ball carrier. We've just got to keep on swarming as a defense. Sometimes, if you have a missed tackle, at least you have a chance to have other guys make it. So, if we're swarming, it's always better."

On whether Goldson gets into the mindset of wanting to really crush someone:

"I think sometimes you do. If you have a bead on him and you want to go out there and try to smack him as hard as you can, sometimes you've got to break down and let the posse come. And then other times, I think you've got to take your shot. So, it depends on the play."

On how Goldson has played this year in his first year as a starter:

"Very good. It's a long season. For any player that's out there as a rookie or a second-year player or a third- or fourth-year player, the first year that you start, it's a long season and you've got to keep on trying to get better each and every week, which he has at times."

On holding opponents to field goals:

"I think, especially from last week with our offense being up, it was good to have a lead. And, going into that situation, even though they got some yardage, we stopped them in the red zone. That's one of our primary goals every year, and I think we're doing a pretty good job of that."

On LB Ahmad Brooks starting in the nickel:

"Yes, he'll be starting this week in place of [LB] Manny [Lawson]. We're giving Manny a little bit of rest, but Manny will be switching in and out with [LB] Parys [Haralson] and with Ahmad. It's like a three-man rotation in there."

On how to correct Brooks not getting off the ball as quickly:

"Just looking at the ball. I think that's the most important thing. He just needed to time up the snap a little bit better and watch the ball being snapped and take off like he normally does in practice."

On whether Brooks was looking at the ball last week:

"No, I think he was. I just think he was tentative at times."

On whether he was happy with CB Dre' Bly's first start:

"Yes, he performed very well. He's a veteran player and we're looking for him to do the same thing this week."

On whether you've seen leadership from Bly in the starting role:

"Definitely, yesterday, and hopefully today. He'll make plays. He did a little bit yesterday in practice. It's good to see a veteran guy come out and take grasp of it and really go with it. So, we're excited about it."

On whether Lawson is viewing Brooks' start as a demotion:

"I don't think so. It's a long season. I'm going to rely on everybody, especially in pass rush situations. The more guys that you have, the better off you're going to be. I don't think it's a negative at all because he'll still be in there at times as well."

On CB Nate Clements' status:

"Looking forward, I don't know exactly what his status is. You've got to talk to the trainers about that. For right now, I guess he's been doing well. He's been in the meetings since he's gotten hurt. I'm looking forward to getting him back as well."

On whether he has a date for Clements' return:

"I don't know the status of where he is right now."

Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye
Post- Walk Thru - December 3, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On the tandem of WR Michael Crabtree and RB Frank Gore on offense:

"I think that it's a continual growth of the young players that we have, the further maturation of the process of QB Alex Smith and the familiarity with the skill players that he is surrounded with. It's kind of an on the job training deal with the way it has unfolded because, as you know, a lot of those people weren't here early on when we were doing the same things that we are now doing in the games."

On the whether the change in formation and personnel can be an advantage going up against Seattle:

"I would think so based on where we have grown since the third week of the season or whenever we played them before. They cannot disregard the runner, so it gives us somewhat of an advantage that we have the contingency to take care of whatever defense they decide that they want to play."

On how WR Michael Crabtree and WR Josh Morgan complement each other:

"I think that it's an ongoing process. It's not spit-shined and polished by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that the growth has been good. I think that Michael continues to learn in every game. I think last week, even though the numbers statistically didn't bear out, Josh Morgan played his best game. I think he was sudden and fast. He is a strong player without the ball and he added on very well. I thought it was his best performance to date."

On the attributes that make WR Josh Morgan excel without the ball:

"I mean he plays all phases of the game: backside, convoy blocking, onside, or blocking when the plays are coming at him, helping the other receivers after the catch and blocking the people around him. I thought that he did a very good job of that."

On the importance of the WR blocking in the spread formation to make way for RB Frank Gore:

"Yes, it is important because you don't have a lead blocking fullback. I really don't like the term ‘spread', that a total misnomer to what we do, but you don't have a lead blocker, orwhen you're in the gun and the quarterback is taking the ball in the direct snap with a single back deal, so the wide receiver, particularly the ‘F', who plays the slot position or is the add-on guy in the 3-by-1 or 2-by-2 has to be a strong player without the ball."

On what is the actual term for the offense that resembles a spread offense:

"I guess it's the spread, I don't know. What we do is what we've been doing since I've been here. It's a formation shotgun for us. We don't have a quarterback running the spread offense in college like Tim Tebow. To me, that's what spread is and I'm not going to debate the merits of what it's called. If that's the name that's been given to it by the media then it's the spread."

On whether he prefer his offense called the shotgun:

"Yes, we just get in the ‘gun'. We're in the gun with either two backs or we're in the gun with one. We run the same offense that we ran with three wides as we run with two backs and I'd be interested what you'd call it when we put the two halfbacks in the game like we did last week. We're still in the gun- is that spread or not? I don't know."

On the offensive terminology of simply spreading out the WR in the ‘spread' formation:

"I guess. If it works, yes. I mean we opened the Chicago Bear game with [TE] Vernon Davis split out wide and two wide receivers away from him in the slot with two backs. Is that ‘spread'? I guess it's a play on words, so, ‘spread' is fine. We have fun with it inside because we don't know what that is, we just do what we do."

On what he thinks when he sees the reaction to the defense on what the 49er offense shows them:

"It's huge because he's an add-on guy and it makes a huge decision as we plan in the matchups. If they match us with their base defense, or like Tennessee chose to do and go nickel, what he brings on the field in Green Bay to the sub-personnel package of the team that we're playing or whether they stay base determines a lot about the plan going forward of what we do. We have a contingency for both, but it is a big part of what we do because he is a run-blocking tight end that has wide receivers skills. So, they have to make a decision or they, most of the time, make a decision either to stay with their base personnel, run-down personnel, or they sub and put in an extra defensive back, which gives us - as we think of it - five DBs on the field and one less run-stopping defender."

On whether Jacksonville was in base personnel most of the game:

"Jacksonville decided to play base, yes."

On whether that decision enabled Walker to be matched up on a linebacker at times:

"At times it did. It either got him on a linebacker or a safety, a down safety that's not used to playing out of the middle of the field or in the middle of the field. So, he is an important part of that, as opposed to being in 21, where it is [FB] Moran Norris."

On whether Walker can have a major impact on the game even if he's not catching passes:

"Yes, he should, particularly if they're going to play with five DBs and take one of the linebackers or down linemen out. We should have an advantage, in terms of he is masked as a run blocker against a defensive back, as opposed to a fullback blocking a linebacker."

On whether he envisioned his offense to look like this when the season started:

"I don't think I can remember as far back as September."

On the offense trying to do different things at the start of the season:

"I think the cast of characters were totally different. And, I think I said this when we started that the diversity of the offense that we install was to be able to take care of the contingencies of the defense. So, we haven't invented something here in the middle of the season that is different than what we did when we came and started. The evolution of what we've done has been based on the injuries, the changes, the personnel - all of that. But, in terms of what we are doing offensively, we didn't dream this up over the bye or start this three weeks ago. The contingencies of the offensive plan that we have in place the ability to plug in people with different abilities and different styles when it is warranted, in terms of being able to do what it is that we were trying to do, in terms of the plan."

On the offense taking a different direction than originally thought:

"You mean me personally?"

On how the offense's direction has changed:

"Yes, I would say so. I think we won three games with the offense that we started with, and we've won two with the one we're in now. So, yes, I would say we're going in a different direction."

On whether he has a good grasp on what QB Alex Smith can and cannot do:

"Yes. What happens is the feel and the flow of the play caller's purpose and understanding of where he is and where he's most comfortable through what he says or how he reacts in practice and in the install, you learn the internal feel of and you try to eliminate as much anxiety in the total plan or the calling of the game for the quarterback. That's a process that's going. I wish it was a year down the road. When we were starting, he and I, with eight months already under our belt, it would be a lot better I think because the exertion that he's shown and the way he's played, if that had been apparent in July and August, I think we'd be having a different discussion."

On what WR Michael Crabtree understands that most rookie receivers don't:

"He's a natural football player. He's a wide receiver that's a very good football player. He has a fundamental understanding of how to play football. He just happens to also have a great gift of exceptional hands, and he's learning how to become a stand-up, single, outside route runner in his maturation. But, I think the biggest thing is he has a natural intellect for the game. Instinctively, he's a good football player."

On whether RB Frank Gore can fit into a spread offense:

"I think most coaches would think Frank Gore is a pretty good fit for most offensive systems. I think the way the games have unfolded has led people to believe that he is not a part of it or he has been eliminated. You have to remember that the second half of the Green Bay game, the score was 23-3. And, in the last game that we had, the Chicago game, we were doing the same thing and he had close to 90-some yards rushing and a total offense, I don't know what it was, but Frank will still get his touches. The way that we play offense, they'll just come in a different style without a lead blocker in some cases, though we haven't totally gone away from that. Most backs and most quarterbacks relish a wide receiver complement that can unlock the box and slow the pass rush and give them some freedom to operate. I think, as we go forward, I think you'll see that happening. I would think his combined - Frank, the ball was thrown to Frank in the last game more than any other player that we have. He had 10 attempts that went toward him. The run total will complement that in terms of the touches that he has, based on the game and how the down and distance markers are turning. But, he will be very successful, in my opinion, in the offense that we're running that is being referred to as spread because it won't really change what he does. The only thing that basically is changed is he's not running into the line with a lead blocking fullback in front of him. The runs are basically the same, but they come out of a non-lead fullback arrangement."