SB Nation - Frank Gore

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Know Thy Enemy

Pyromnc — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

4 days ago: San Francisco 49ers' Vernon Davis scores a touchdown in the first quarter with Seattle Seahawks' Aaron Curry in pursuit during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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When playing the San Francisco 49ers the past few years, you used to only worry about one player. That player was running back Frank Gore. While he is still a threat on offense, he hasn't been quite as good as he has been the last few games. This can be attributed to the new offense that has been made to make new starting quarterback Alex Smith comfortable. Since then, the dominate player has been tight end Vernon Davis.

Vernon Davis had been a tight end that wasn't producing the kind of numbers you'd expect for a player that had a lot of hype surrounding him coming out of the NFL Draft. Through his first three years he had compiled just nine touchdowns and 1132 receiving yards. This year was going to be a different year however. After he was publicly embarrassed by head coach Mike Singletary last season, he vowed to come out and play as hard as he possibly could in 2009. This would turn out to be a good thing for the Niners because not only would he become a team captain, but he would also become their best receiver.

For the 2009 season Davis had a decent start catching 22 passes for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns over 5 games, which wasn't bad for a tight end but he could've done better. This would become evident when the Niners would change their starting quarterback from Shaun Hill to Alex Smith. Once that happened Davis caught 41 passes for 519 yards and 7 touchdowns over 6 games. Those were the type of numbers the Niners were expecting after drafting him with the sixth overall pick. This is something the Arizona Cardinals will have to worry about as they have not particularly been stellar against opposing team's tight ends.

Over the course of this season the Cardinals have given up over eight touchdowns to tight ends. This has been a problem for them the past few seasons and will be one the Niners will be sure to test against them on Monday night. In the seven games the Cardinals have matched up with Davis they have contained him pretty well holding him to just over 250 yards and 3 touchdowns. They haven't faced him since they changed to a spread offense however, so this will surely be a test for the Cardinals safeties as they will need to shut him down if they want to lock up the division. Thoughts?

Week 13 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:00:40 -0000

The theme for today's matchup review post, similar to the theme of recent 49er teams, is "what could have been." In 2006, the Niners beat the division-leading Seahawks to pull within 1 game of the division lead at 5-5. They had a pretty favorable stretch of upcoming games against the 4-6 Rams, 6-4 Saints, and 4-6 Packers, and we got all excited. Unfortunately, they proceeded to lose all 3 of those games, only to beat the Seahawks again in Week 15 to revive our hopes once more. What happens next? As the Seahawks are in the midst of losing to the 12-2 Chargers, the Niners lay an absolute egg against the 4-10 (!!!) Cardinals to kick us in the junk one more time for good measure.

Sound familiar? This season, the Niners have brought out their junk-kicking boots once again, with their wins coming when they're seemingly out of the playoff picture, and their losses coming when they're firmly within the picture frame. This Sunday's loss was, ala the Cardinals' game in 2006, the final for-good-measure display of their junk-kicking skills.

What does this have to do with the matchup review? Well, as you'll see, this was a game that the 49ers should have won easily. The loss defied more than just statistics; it defied logic altogether. Some matchup results ended up in perfect accordance with what they needed to accomplish, and yet they still lost. In other matchups, they turned stone-cold, lead-pipe advantages into performances befitting the Keystone Kops. All in all, if you want to understand the anatomy of a kick in the junk, this Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks helps explain why 49er teams of recent vintage have continually given us their best Sisyphus impression.

Ladies and gentlemen, grab your barf bags as I present this week's statistical matchup review alternately titled, How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Before the game, I displayed a chart showing that, without fail, the Seahawks' wins and losses through 11 games had a 1-to-1 dependency on their DEF DVOA for the game: above average = Seahawks win; below average = Seahawks loss. Well, wouldn't you know it, but the 49ers decided to play the role of bedside nurse once again, giving their opponent exactly what ails them. In the case of the SEA game, it turns out that the Niners lost despite SEA having a below-average Game DEF DVOA of 24.5%; their 3rd-worst Game DEF DVOA of the season!

So basically, the Seahawks DEF sucked just about as bad as they were supposed to suck (if not worse), and yet the 49ers couldn't do what every other team that's encountered said death-spiraling Seahawk DEF has done: win the damn game. What makes matters even worse - and more odds-defying - is that the Niners' had an above-average Game OFF DVOA of 9.5%; their 3rd-best Game OFF DVOA of the season! Oh, and by the way, just for kicks, they also had an above-average Game DEF DVOA of -8.1%. Tell most any NFL team that they're going to have one of their best days on OFF, and their 4-7 opponent, whose losses occur when they play bad DEF, is going to have one of their worst days on DEF, and that team is going to tell you that an ass-whooping is what they're about to dish out. Behold the (2006 and) 2009 49ers: not most any NFL team.

After the jump, I'll make you reach for the Pepto...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Here's another case of the odds-defying game result. Just to remind you, the first part of the equation in this matchup had to do with the 49ers's DEF having a massive advantage over the Seahawks' OFF in passing situations on 2nd down. The second part was that, given this advantage, the Niners' DEF needed to constantly put SEA's OFF in such situations by holding them to 3 yards or less on 1st down.

Interesting stat #1: SEA had 3 successful plays out of 11 passing plays on 2nd & long (27.3%); as compared to a 50% success rate on 2nd & long runs. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #2: When the Niners' DEF stopped SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, TD, Half, Punt, Punt, Punt. 49ers exploit advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #3: On the lone TD drive in the previous list, the 49ers' DEF gave up 2 of the Seahawks' 3 successful 2nd-down passing plays in the entire game. 49ers blow advantage? Check. Interesting stat #4: When the Niners' DEF didn't stop SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with TD, Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Punt, FG. 49ers blow advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #5: Before Arnaz Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 4 for 4 (i.e., a perfect 100% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #6: After Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 13 for 25 (i.e., a lackluster 52% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. Battle blows DEF's advantage? Check.

So, my point here is that the matchup played out exactly as expected. When Matt Hasselbeck and company passed the ball on 2nd & long, it worked in the 49ers' favor. Otherwise, it didn't. When the Niners' DEF started a drive by putting SEA into 2nd & long, it ultimately worked in the 49ers' favor on the drive. Otherwise, it didn't. When the coaching staff wasn't calling ridiculous special teams plays, and pinning their hopes on the tandem of "Human Roster Exemption" and "Worst WR-Signing of 2009," it worked in the Niner DEF's favor. Otherwise, it didn't.

The fact of the matter is, however, that this matchup worked out in the 49ers' favor far more than it didn't, and yet, they still lost the game. Why? How about 3 matchup-defying epic fails: a 15-yard gain on 2nd & 8, a 25-yard gain on 2nd & 7, and a 32-yard gain on 1st & 10. The first 2 came on SEA's 2nd TD drive (if you want to call the 1st one "a drive"), and the third came on SEA's final game-winning drive. Interesting stat #7: 3 epic matchup fails = 49ers loss.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Do I really have to say much about this one? The Niners' DEF had a 167.9% (!!!) DVOA advantage if/when SEA threw red zone passes, and was coming off a game in which the dropped the hammer on the Jaguars' similarly disadvantaged OFF in this exact game situation. So much for that, I guess: Both of SEA's TDs came on red zone passes. Nice job, guys. Revised interesting stat # 7: 5 epic fails = 49ers loss.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

Remember how, in last week's matchup review, I lauded the 49ers' coaching staff for exploiting Frank Gore's advantage against JAX's DEF in the passing game? Remember how I mentioned that he was the target for 25% of Alex Smith's passes in the JAX game, and how Smith threw 6 of his first 9 passes to Gore? After looking at the SEA-game play-by-play, they're resigned to remain exactly that: memories.

Against the Seahawks, Gore was the target of a Smith pass only 7 times, or only 15.5% of Smith's 45-pass total. What's worse is that, after being the target of Smith's 3rd pass of the game, Gore did not have a ball thrown his way for 14 straight passes! A certain pearl of 1980s pop culture comes to mind here: Hello? McFly?

This one is definitely on the coaches. How do you go into a game against the 26th-ranked pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw Gore the ball like he's Roger Craig, but then go into the following game against the #27 pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw him the ball like he's Billy Bajema? It makes absolutely no sense to me. The worst part is that 4 of Gore's 5 catches ended up being successful plays for the Niners' OFF. Hello? McFly? Re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 1 coaching fail = 49ers loss.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Enough of the epic failing; let's go back to the "lose despite epic success" theme. I don't need to give you the play-by-play for you to know that the Niners's OFF shot, roasted, and ate the Seahawks DEF during the 1st quarter. If not for one of the worst non-calls I've ever seen, the Niners would have been up 14-0 only 8:35 into the game. And, to me, 14-0 is meaningfully different than 7-0. To an NFL team, being down by 7 in the 1st quarter means "only one score away." But, to a 4-7 NFL team like the Seahawks, only 2 weeks removed from receiving a 35-9 beatdown at the hands of the Vikings, being down by 14 midway through the 1st quarter means "I can't wait to clean out my locker and get the hell out of here."

I don't care what anyone says, but the fact that the 49ers' 1st-quarter dominance on offense didn't end up helping them win the game is something you can pin squarely on the backs of the inept officiating tandem that saw no evil on that play. Of course, were you at all surprised that (non-)call went the other way? Remember, the alternate title of this movie is How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion. Getting that call isn't in the script.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...One more epic coaching fail for you guys before I'm done. Before the game, I mentioned how SEA's DEF is 6th-worst in the NFL when it comes to efficiency on plays when the opposing OFF lines up in shotgun. As was the case in the Jags game, the Niners needed more shotgun. It turns out they used even more shotgun OFF against SEA (62.1% of all plays) than they did against JAX (55.7%). The coaches are fine so far.

Where the epic coaching fail begins is related to something I've been talking about for weeks: the benefit of shotgun to the running game. Against the Seahawks, the 49ers' OFF had a 44.4% play success rate from the shotgun formation, and a 36.4% play success rate when Smith lined up under center; so, yeah, we know already, shotgun is more efficient overall.

The interesting things about the SEA game are (a) the pass OFF was slightly more efficient under center (50.0%) than they were in shotgun (46.9% success rate), and (b) the run OFF was a pathetic 0 for 7 (success rate = 0.0%) on running plays in non-shotgun formations!!!

Why? Hmm. Might the former have something to do with the fact that 7 of Gore's 9 carries were on non-shotgun plays? Might somebody be telegraphing their passing plays? Might the entire world know that, when the 49ers line up in shotgun, they're going to pass the ball? Might it be a little less difficult to defend the pass when a team knows it's coming? Hmm. And might the latter have something to do with the fact that, against SEA, the Niners were 6 times as likely to run the ball when under center than when in shotgun? Or perhaps it has something to do with the fact that, except for one drive in which they mysteriously exhumed their Gore-up-the-middle-three-times-then-punt OFF, all of Gore's runs came on 1st down? Hmm.

Hopefully, you're getting my point for the 100th time. One of the main reasons I cited for shotgun being useful for the 49ers and their inept OL is that it allows an OFF to disguise their play-calls. If you run out of shotgun efficiently, it will be nearly impossible for the DEF to know when you're going to run because the norm for NFL DEF's is to defend pass first against shotgun. DEFs defending pass first = easier blocking for the OL on running plays.

So, one of the main benefits of shotgun is disguise. But here we have a game in which the coaching staff (read Jimmy Raye) somehow was able to force his telegraphing nature into an offense specifically designed to avoid telegraphing. Want to know what one SEA defensive coach said to the others? It goes like this: "Hey guys, when Smith is in shotgun, they're passing. But if he's under center on 1st down, they're running." Amazing. When a nerdy, armchair DC like me can figure this out, it means that the Niners' OC (and the rest of the offensive coaches) committed an epic fail.

Re-re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 2 coaching fails = 49ers loss.

BOTTOM LINE

Aside from specific epic fails, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Seahawks:

They did something no other team had done against SEA this season: Lose despite their OFF utterly dominating SEA's DEF.
Battle's fumble gave SEA's OFF life after the Niners' DEF was utterly dominating them on 1st down.
A blown PI call nullified the Niner OFF's utter domination of SEA's DEF in the 1st quarter.
Total matchup meltdown in red zone pass DEF, the initial catalyst of which was Battle's fumble putting the pass DEF in a position to fail.
Poor gameplanning by the offensive coaches rendered Gore relatively nonexistent in the passing game.
Poor "self-scouting" by the offensive coaches rendered the 49ers' run and pass tendencies transparent, which thereby nullified their massive shotgun advantage.

The first sentence of my SF/SEA matchup preview was, "Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort." It turns out I was exactly right from a matchup perspective: losing these matchups was a total team effort. Offensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., Gore fumble), defensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., red zone pass DEF fails), and a special teams player (who should be taking the next "special" bus out of town) even found a way to contribute to non-ST matchup fails - he's that talented! Throw on top of that the contribution of offensive coaches, and you have the anatomy of a "what could have been" loss.

Thanks for another kick in the junk, guys.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON why the 49ers repeatedly lose games they should win?

Anatomy of a Game Changing Fumble Recovery

John Morgan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:00:07 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

A routine play punctuated by hustle made this amazing pass possible.

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I hit on the staggering consequences a dropped route and blown block can cause when Nate Burleson indirectly assisted a forced fumble by the Dallas Cowboys. Seattle hustled its way into a fumble and fumble recovery in a similar fashion this last Sunday. Fumble recovery is not luck, strictly speaking; it's just unpredictable. Luck implies a lack of skill, whereas fumble recovery is a skill, just one that is exceedingly hard to measure.

The play didn't look too exciting at the onset. Seattle broke in a nickel package against the 49ers two-tight end, power formation. David Hawthorne knifed into the backfield but lost Frank Gore when Gore followed his lead blocker left. Jordan Babineaux followed but overpursued. Bad things were about to happen. Seattle was in nickel against a run, and two of its three run stuffers, the linebacker and strong safety, were behind and out of the play. Bad things were about to happen for the 49ers.

Darryl Tapp anchored against tight end Delanie Walker and forced Gore to cut back inside. Tapp slowed Gore and ankle tackled him into and onto prostrate non-entity Craig Terrill. Terrill, through no achievement of his own, played an essential part in the play. His was the body that kept Gore from being down.

Here's where hustle gets its due: Wilson started the play just outside the tackle box and in position to be blocked by a pulling lineman. And so he was. Right tackle Adam Snyder pulled out and put a body on Pistol, but Pistol didn't quit. He went high on Snyder and yanked him aside by the shoulder pads. Back in the scrum, Babineaux recovered and punched out the fumble. Gore was attempting to wrestle his ankle free and somewhat atop Terrill. The ball bounced forward and toward no team in particular before a streaking Wilson looped into the action and recovered for 43 yards.

It was the single most important play of the game, worth 30% of win probability, worth more than Matt Hasselbeck's late strike to Deon Butler, and more than the field goal that won it. It ended a menacing looking drive by San Francisco that had advanced into Seahawks territory and flipped field position. Seattle took the lead on the ensuing drive. It wasn't the better team all game, it isn't the better team on paper, but it mustered all the character Tim Ruskell saw in it and granted him his parting wish: Win.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:32 -0000

vs.

While this game lost a lot of its luster with the Sunday's 49ers loss and Cardinals win, it still should provide an entertaining football experience. As folks were trying to develop a legit 49ers-Seahawks rivalry, the 49ers quietly developed a rivalry with the Arizona Cardinals. Even though there have been numerous sweeps of the series, the games usually are highly competitive, if not going down close to the wire. Even if the 49ers are all but eliminated from playoff contention, this game provides a chance for the team to take a step forward in execution and build towards 2010.

The 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals in what will be the 37th meeting between the two teams, with San Francisco holding a 20-16 advantage in the series. In the season opener earlier this year, the 49ers defeated the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium, 20-16.

San Francisco enters the upcoming game following a 20-17 defeat in Seattle. In that game, QB Alex Smith connected on 27 of 45 passes for a career-high 310 yards, which included a 33-yard touchdown pass to TE Vernon Davis for his 10th receiving touchdown on the year (tied for 1st in NFL and a new single-season record among 49ers TE’s all-time) and a 22-yard touchdown reception by WR Josh Morgan to mark his third score of the season. It marked the second week in a row that the 49ers defense had posted at least 5 sacks in a game, having had 6 sacks against the Jaguars before notching 5 sacks against the Seahawks.

The 49ers have won 7 of their past 9 home games and have a 38-24 overall record on Monday Night Football.

49ers-Cardinals Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers defensive coordinator Greg Manusky was a teammate of Cardinals assistant head coach/OL coach Russ Grimm with the Washington Redskins from 1988-91. Manusky played linebacker, while Grimm played offensive guard.
• 49ers TE coach Pete Hoener has had coaching stints with the Cardinals in both St. Louis (1985-86) and Arizona (2001-03).
• 49ers WR coach Jerry Sullivan spent 3 seasons as the Cardinals offensive coordinator from 2001-03.
• 49ers special teams coordinator Al Everest coached in the same capacity for the Cardinals from 1996-99.
• Cardinals LB coach Billy Davis was the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2005-06.

FORMER CARDINALS - 49ers K Joe Nedney spent three seasons with the Cardinals from 1997-99 ... 49ers G Tony Wragge was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cardinals in 2002. Wragge spent 2 seasons (2002-03) with Arizona.

PANTHER PRIDE - 49ers CB Shawntae Spencer and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald were teammates at the Univ. of Pittsburgh from 2000-03.

FORMER 49ERS - Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor spent the first 4 years of his career with the 49ers after being drafted in the 3rd round (89th overall) of the 1999 NFL Draft.

HAIL THE VICTORS - 49ers G David Baas played at Michigan alongside Cardinals DT Gabe Watson, DT Alan Branch and WR Steve Breaston.

CARDINALS NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS - Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington played 2 seasons at Cal.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 36
Series Record: 49ers lead series 20-16
49ers Home Record vs. Cardinals: 49ers Lead Series 11-8
First Meeting: 11/15/51, Cardinals win, 27-21, at San Francisco
Last Meeting: 9/13/09, 49ers win, 20-16, at Arizona
Current Streak: Won 1
Longest 49ers Win Streak: 5 (9/14/80-10/18/87 | 10/24/93-12/21/02)
Longest Cards Win Streak: 4 (10/6/74-12/2/79 | 10/2/05-12/24/06)
Most 49ers Points: 50 (12/7/03): 50-14, at San Francisco
Most Cardinals Points: 34 (Two Times): Last (10/6/74), 34-9 at SF
49ers Shutouts: None
Cardinals Shutouts: None

SAN FRANCISCO 20, ARIZONA 16
At Glendale, AZ, September 13, 2009

Head coach Mike Singletary delivered a very simple message to his team in advance of their season opening matchup against the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals … "Believe." His players did just that as they battled through a tremendously physical game highlighted by impressive defensive efforts from both squads. After being stymied on offense for more than 3 quarters, the 49ers embarked on a 15-play, 80-yd. drive that consumed 7:26 of clock time en route to a 3-yd., go-ahead TD pass from QB Shaun Hill to RB Frank Gore. On the drive, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye scrapped the run game that he had dialed up all afternoon and left the contest to Hill’s right arm. The QB responded going 9 of 13 for 72 yds. and the TD to Gore. On the series, Hill utilized his playmakers, including TE Vernon Davis who hauled in 4 passes for 35 yds.

The 49ers opened the scoring in the 1st quarter after All-Pro LB Patrick Willis intercepted a QB Kurt Warner pass to set his team up at the ARZ 36. Six plays later K Joe Nedney connected on a 37-yd. FG. Nedney later connected on a 50-yd. FG to give the Niners a 6-0 lead entering the 2nd stanza. The Cardinals finally got some offense going in the 2nd quarter as K Neil Rackers drilled a 44-yd. FG on their first possession. As the 49ers run game continued to struggle, Hill aired the ball out to All-Pro WR Isaac Bruce on a 50-yd. bomb, setting the offense up at the 6-yd. line. With a tired Arizona defense, the 49ers called on Gore the very next play. He hit pay dirt plunging through a massive hole into the endzone.

With the momentum in their favor, CB Nate Clements capitalized on another Warner mistake, as he hauled in his first interception of the year. Clements’ effort, and those of his defensive backfield mates, limited one of the game’s best WR tandems in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, to a combined 8 recepts. for 90 yds. and 1 TD. The 49ers were unable to capitalize on Clements’ pick, as Hill was sacked and forced to fumble on the next series. The Cardinals jumped on the opportunity, posting another Rackers’ FG this time from 29 yds. San Francisco left the field at the half with a 13-6 lead.

The Cardinals carried momentum into the 3rd quarter, and on their 2nd possession, Warner led his team on 69-yd scoring drive that resulted in a 5-yd. TD pass to Fitzgerald, knotting the score at 13. After a 49ers 3-n-out, Arizona again moved the ball to post points, a 43-yd. FG by Rackers just seconds into the 4th quarter, for the Cardinals final points of the game. The Niners would then embark on their game-winning drive and back it up with a defensive performance that paralyzed the Cardinals.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		CARDINALS (rank)
5-7 (t-2nd NFCW)	Record	8-4 (1st NFCW)
20.4 (19th)	Points per game	24.8 (9th)
285.4 (28th)	Total Offense	360.9 (10th)
91.3 (28th)	Rushing Offense	94.1 (26th)
194.2 (22nd)	Passing Offense	266.8 (5th)
28:55 (20th)	Possession Avg	30:41 (12th)
19.4 (t-10th)	Points allowed/gm	19.5 (12th)
346.4 (20th)	Total Defense	362.6 (24th)
95.8 (5th)	Rushing Defense	104.8 (12th)
250.6 (27th)	Passing Defense	257.8 (30th)
30 (t-7th)	Sacks	35 (3rd)
48.3 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	47.4 (3rd)
+1 (t-11th)	Turnover Differential	-3 (t-21st)

Alex Smith, Frank Gore, and the 49ers offensive philosophy

Fooch — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:00:20 -0000

We all agree that yesterday's loss was about as brutal as they come. Throw in a Cardinals win to push us to the precipice of playoff elimination, and the time is fast approaching for us to start ~~peaking~~ peeking ahead to the offseason and beyond. I certainly am not ready to completely give up on this season, but I can read the writing on the wall.

Accordingly even I am willing to look ahead to the offseason and to the 2010 season. This is particularly true when discussion the quarterback position, and its relationship to the 49ers offensive philosophy. We all know the offensive line has been a major issue this season, and will hopefully be addressed in a big way this offseason (pun partially intended). Even with potential additions to the offensive line, the team's offensive philosophy remains a question mark. I know we can't resolve the entire issue at this point, but it'd be nice to "explore the studio space" as we start looking to next season.

In order to have this discussion, we first have to address the position of quarterback. Alex Smith had one of his best games ever as a pro yesterday. While he was not able to drive down the field for the win at the end, he continued to show some of the skills people have been waiting on for five years. Given how awful the field position was for the 49ers for most of the day, he managed to make things happen. He's improved in a variety of areas, even if the team's record (I refuse to say his record when it's a team stat) does not reflect Smith's improvement.

There are still four games to go, and with two coming against potential playoff teams (Arizona, Philly), there is still a lot of value to be had in this remaining quarter of the season. If the season ended today, I'd be willing to wager that Alex Smith would be the starting QB at the start of the 2010 training camp. He's not perfect as a QB (that last drive shows that), but I can accept that he's shown enough improvement to warrant being the starting QB in 2010 (even if the team drafts another QB). Obviously this could change, but we'll just have to work with what we know for now. I figure we'll have enough time during the dog days of the offseason to debate this issue once more information (e.g. Weeks 14-17) becomes available.

I've thrown up a poll just to see what people are thinking, even though we've got an important month of games left in the Alex Smith evaluation process.

After the jump, we apply the above information to the 49ers offensive philosophy going forward...

So, let's assume Alex Smith is the starting QB in 2010. Whether this is what you're hoping for or not, I think at this point it's safe to say it's going to happen (barring injury). People talk about his greater ability in the proverbial Raye-gun offense (courtesy of Matt Barrows). I'm wondering a couple things as it relates to that offensive style. First off, if the 49ers actually put out an improved offensive line that could get push in the rushing game and provide real protection in the passing game, is the shotgun a necessity? Is Alex Smith's success in the shotgun a matter of him simply needing the time it might give him to pass the ball, or does it drastically affect his ability to view the field?

I ask this because it brings us to the second issue of Frank Gore's role going forward. Through 12 games, Gore has rushed for 643 yards on 128 carries (5.0 ypc). The problem with that total is that 223 of those yards came on 3 carries, which leaves Gore with 420 yards on 125 carries (3.36 ypc). At the beginning of this season, Mike Singletary spoke of wanting a smash-mouth offense. As the season developed though, it became clear the passing attack was carrying the team.

Now, I'm not advocating trading Frank Gore. Not even remotely. Gore is one of their biggest receiving threats (#2 in receptions) and has improved his breakaway ability, as opposed to being dragged down from behind as happened so often in the past. The question is how the team can reconcile Frank Gore with the offense in place. Frank Gore seemingly rushes better out of the I-formation with a lead fullback. If the team decides they're going to stick with the shotgun, what comes of the running game.

On the one hand I find myself optimistic about the future of this team. I think Alex Smith is showing actual development and I think he can guide this team to the playoffs in 2010 with the right personnel. However, personnel are only part of the equation. The team needs to figure out a complete offensive identity. Bignerd made a good point yesterday:

Use the time [remaining this season] to develop a real offense.

Neither the 2.2 yards and Cloud of Dust or The Greatest Marginal Show on Grass offense is going to work. No more gimmicks, quick fixes, etc. Find a philosophy that uses Gore, VD, Crabtree, Morgan and Smith or it’s never going to work.

This team needs to figure out its offensive identity heading into 2010. I realize a lot of folks are down on Jimmy Raye, but I actually think what bignerd mentioned is one reason to keep Raye. Raye has shown a willingness to adapt his play-calling, even if it's been from one extreme to the next. I know I can't be the only person curious to see what would happen with a full offseason of having the same offensive coordinator and the same starting QB. Furthermore, with Alex Smith in particular, one would hope this kind of continuity would be an even bigger deal.

Maybe I'm over-emphasizing the value of this, but it's still something that has to be factored into the offense's development beyond just adding offensive linemen. The offense has developed over the course of the season, even if it's been in fits at times and has been rather herky-jerky. It seems to me to be a sign that it's not just a stagnant offense going nowhere. Now, whether that means it develops into a consistent play-making offense next season? Lord only knows.

Poll

Who will be the 49ers starting QB week 1 of the 2010 regular season?

Week 13 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:24:05 -0000

Fooch's Note: Don't forget to join us in today's first game thread.

Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort. Don't have a lot of time here, so I won't waste any time telling you that, by reading this, you're getting a point-by-point foreshadowing of what you're going to watch about an hour from now. Let's get going.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Last week, I told you it was the Jaguars' OFF that was their catalyst to victory. This week, it's exactly the opposite. Here's a chart showing how the Seahawks' DEF has performed in its wins and losses:

The trend here is as straightforward as it gets. When SEA's DEF plays above average, they win. When their DEF plays below average, they lose. Plain and simple. So what are chances that SEA's DEF is going to play above average today? Well, here are two stats for you that should tell you what I'm thinking: (a) The 49ers' OFF is 13.6% better on the road than at home; and (b) The Seahawks' DEF is 27.7% worse at home than on the road. If the past is prologue, this bodes well for the Niners. It's up to their OFF to exploit this matchup advantage.

After the jump, I'll present a few more matchups that seem to suggest this is a very winnable game for our San Francisco 49ers...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Unlike 1st- and 3rd-down stats, 2nd-down stats are relatively unimportant. How they become important is if there's such a clear 2nd-down advantage/trend, that it makes efficient performance on 1st down a necessity. That's the case today when the 49ers are on DEF. Specifically, SEA currently has the #30 pass OFF on 2nd down (-27.7%), while SF has the #6 pass DEF on 2nd down (-19.5%). Furthermore, SEA has the #31 pass OFF on 2nd & long (-37.0%), while SF has the #2 pass DEF on 2nd & long (-44.2%). Therefore, it's pretty imperative that the Niners' DEF plays well on 1st down, so they can exploit their clear matchup advantage when SEA is in a passing situation on 2nd down.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Similar to last week, the Niners have a massive advantage if SEA has to pass in the red zone. In fact, it's even bigger than last week's: 167.9%!!! Given how well SF's DEF exploited this matchup against the Jaguars, I'm confident they can do it again against the Seahawks if the situation presents itself.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: 2ND-HALF DEFENSE

If the Niners take a lead into the 2nd half, the Seahawks' game presents a real opportunity to close out a contest on DEF. That's because SEA is #25 in 2nd-Half OFF DVOA (-18.0%), while the SF is #2 in 2nd-Half DEF DVOA (-18.7%). Furthermore, if the game happens to be close in the 2nd half, the 49ers' DEF enjoys a similar 31.8% advantage (#9 SF DEF vs. #25 SEA OFF). So, if there was any game in which to secure an early lead, this one might be it. Get the game into the 2nd half, and SF's DEF should bring the team home for victory.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

This one's pretty much exactly the same as last week's matchup advantage against the Jaguars: SEA has the #27 DEF DVOA against RBs in the passing game, and Gore, though he's dropped a bit in the RB Receiving DVOA rankings, is still near the top of the league. So, like last week, Jimmy Raye needs to get Gore involved in the passing game early and often.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Unlike in their matchup with JAX, the 49ers' actually might be able to have that elusive 10-point 1st quarter that we've all been waiting for. That's because the Seahawks rank 26th in 1st-Quarter DEF DVOA (16.6%), which is light years worse than what the Jags' was going into last week's game (11th, -3.8%).

SF OFF while winning vs. SEA DEF while losing...The Seahawks are almost equally as bad as the Jaguars when it comes to keeping the score where it's at when they're behind. Specifically, they're ranked 22nd when losing by 7 or less (DVOA = 10.0%), and 20th when losing by 8 or more (DVOA = 13.3%). Furthermore, if the Niners can take a slim lead into the 2nd half, their tendency to "go conservative" will be offset by the Seahawks' #30 DEF DVOA when the game is late and close (20.7%).

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...Just like last week, this is a great matchup for the 49ers. SEA isn't ranked dead last in Shotgun DEF DVOA, but they're really close (27th, 27.5%). I've got a fever, and the only remedy is more shotgun!

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Jump out to an early lead.
Use the shotgun as much as they did against JAX.
Pass the ball to Gore early and often.
Play efficient DEF on 1st down to get SEA into passing situations on 2nd down.

This really does seem like a game that the 49ers should win, given their matchup advantages. Hopefully, I'm Nostradamus for the 3rd week in a row. I'll see you back here on Tuesday with my matchup review. GO NINERS!

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 12

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Yesterday, I noted some pretty promising statistical improvements for the 49ers' OFF. Today, we'll see whether stats and rankings for the Niners' offensive players have also improved as one would expect; or perhaps the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? To this end, I'll be adding the same kind of change stats I've started presenting in my other posts this week. Again, it's the direction of change, not necessarily its magnitude, that's more important from my perspective.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 90 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 96 carries, WRs need at least 38 targets, and TEs need at least 18 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 208 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Pass	0.20	24	0.20	25	0.00	+1
YAR per Pass	0.50	23	0.12	25	+0.38	+2
EYds per Pass	5.31	25	5.23	25	+0.08	0
Yds per Pass	5.78	25	5.81	24	-0.03	-1
DVOA	-7.9%	24	-7.9%	25	0.0%	0
VOA	-3.2%	23	-9.2%	25	+6.0%	+2

As you can see, the only things that have showed any meaningful improvement are Smith's unadjusted stats, YAR/P and VOA. Not surprisingly, the 49ers' unadjusted OFF Pass VOA is what showed meaningful improvement among their team stats. Obviously, Smith threw every pass against the Jaguars, so this is kind of a "duh" finding. However, the important point is that Smith and the Niners had a productive passing attack against JAX, but more than just "productive" is what was expected against the 31st-ranked JAX pass DEF. Nevertheless, you have to crawl before you walk, so Smith and the Niners' pass OFF need to pass well against bad pass DEFs before he/they can start passing well against good DEFs.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 128 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Run	0.48	20	0.58	17	-0.10	-3
YAR per Run	0.30	25	0.48	20	-0.18	-5
EYds per Run	4.20	22	4.38	22	-0.18	0
Yds per Run	5.03	5	5.46	3	-0.43	-2
DVOA	3.3%	19	6.2%	16	-2.9%	-3
VOA	-0.9%	24	3.6%	18	-4.5%	-6

Interesting, eh? Gore's stats - adjusted and unadjusted - got worse across the board, yet, the 49ers' Rush OFF VOA improved after the Jags game and their Rush OFF DVOA stayed essentially the same. What gives?

Well, there are two phenomena at play here. First, realize that play-by-play efficiency as a team is compared to the average of other NFL teams, whereas play-by-play efficiency as an individual is compared to the average of other players at that position. So, it seems as though the Niners' running game is getting better relative to the rest of the league, but Gore's running is getting worse relative to other RBs. Second - and this should be far more obvious - Gore's not the only player carrying the ball in the Niners' run OFF. As it specifically relates to the Jags game, remember that Delanie Walker had an 11-yard carry on 2nd & 2, and Alex Smith had a 10-yard scramble on 2nd & 7, both of which are considered highly efficient plays according to DVOA.

So, keep these two points in mind as we move forward in the post. They're going to reappear a few more times before we're done.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Here are Crabtree's stats through 44 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.43	67	-0.22	60	-0.21	-7
YAR per Target	-0.02	61	0.03	58	-0.05	-3
EYds per Target	5.16	71	5.47	67	-0.31	-4
Yds per Target	7.86	36	8.11	33	-0.25	-3
DVOA	-18.9%	69	-15.7%	62	-3.2%	-7
VOA	-13.1%	62	-12.3%	58	-0.8%	-4

Like Gore, we see decline across the board when it comes to Crabtree. However, you'll notice that each of his adjusted stats declined more drastically than his unadjusted stats. So, his stats display similar opponent-dependent characteristics to that of Smith. Hope you're sensing a theme here. Regardless, though, I'll say the same thing I did last week: I'm not worried about Crabs, no matter what the stats say.

Here are Morgan's stats through 51 targets so far this season:

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.41	65	0.16	55	-0.57	-10
YAR per Target	0.10	57	0.42	50	-0.32	-7
EYds per Target	5.67	67	6.56	54	-0.89	-13
Yds per Target	6.82	55	7.09	51	-0.27	-4
DVOA	-18.0%	66	-10.5%	55	-7.5%	-11
VOA	-11.5%	58	-7.3%	50	-4.2%	-8

OK. This is a little bit more problematic for me because these are massive declines across the board. It almost defies belief that Morgan's EYds/T can drop that much from targets 44 to 51 on the season. I still say that Morgan will be fine in the long-run as a productive #2 WR once he learns his new position. However, what his stats show is that, contrary to how the saying goes, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. Having only 2 successful plays in 8 targets, and only 1 reception go for more than 10 yards, against the 29th-ranked pass DEF against #2 WRs pretty much defines inefficiency.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 92 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	1.18	18	1.08	17	+0.10	-1
YAR per Target	1.21	18	1.10	19	+0.11	+1
EYds per Target	7.80	19	7.53	21	+0.27	+2
Yds per Target	7.28	19	7.24	22	+0.04	+3
DVOA	11.8%	18	10.4%	18	1.4%	0
VOA	12.2%	18	10.6%	18	1.6%	0

If I could call Alex Smith "the #25 QB in the NFL" last week based on the consistency of his rankings, then I can dub VD "the #18 TE in the NFL." Of course, that's far more tongue-in-cheek than my Smith evaluation. We all know VD's much better than his stats show, and, after last week's post, we should all know that the reason these stats are what they are is because VD's tied for 2nd-most-targeted TE in the NFL. So bottom line is, don't freak out.

What is accurately reflected in the table is the fact that the Niners' overall pass OFF improvement has ridden the wave of VD (Aside: Sorry for all the nautical references today. I'm trying to give the STD references a week off.). It's clear that, based on his number of targets, the pass OFF goes as VD goes; based on his increasing EYards/T, VD goes as his new downfield-passing QB goes; and based on his DVOA, the Niners' level of efficiency in the passing game goes as throwing the ball downfield to VD goes.

Finally, as this is my last chance to really mention it, I'll just also quickly note that the Smith did a really good job of spreading the ball around against JAX. Specifically, among the 3 pass catchers I've detailed today, VD had 9 targets, Morgan had 8 targets, and Crabtree had 7 targets. For sure, this is a pleasant development. Having 3 legitimate options in the passing attack definitely beats having 1, which seemed to be the case just 8 weeks ago.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here's the OL's directional run-blocking chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

In my enthusiasm over Adjusted BS Rate, I totally forgot to mention the fact that the 49ers' OL is now ranked dead last in the league. Granted, their actual ALY only dropped 0.02 yards per carry, but it's still an ignominious achievement. Once again, though, it's interesting to see how, although the Niners' Rush OFF DVOA has gotten considerably better since Smith took over at QB, the OL deserves very little, if any, of the credit. This doesn't really fit well with my theory related to the run-blocking benefits of increased shotgun, so I'm pretty much stumped. All I can think of is that perhaps (a) more of the rush OFF's short gains are ending up as "successful plays" because of the down and distance, and/or (b) adjusting line yards for the caliber of an opponents' DF7 is different than adjusting Rush OFF DVOA for the caliber of an opponents' rush DEF overall. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again in this post.

With respect to directional ALY, not much has changed. The OL continues to improve in LE ALY, but that's still most likely due to a regression to the mean; and the same thing probably goes for RE ALY given they don't run the ball in that direction very much either. Otherwise, the glaring problem remains. Jimmy Raye loves to run the ball up the middle despite the fact that his OL absolutely sucks blocking in that direction.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

Here's the DF7's directional run-stopping chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

The big changes here occurred on runs up the middle and behind RT. Essentially, the DF7 got struck by a triple whammy of (a) having JAX run the ball fewer times in those directions than the 49ers were previously accustomed to, (b) having those runs go for more yardage than the 49ers were previously accustomed to allowing, and (c) having those yards allowed come via the directions in which the otherwise-top-tier JAX OL were least proficient. Add those 3 things up and you have a DF7 whose C/G ALY ranking dropped 6 spots (up 0.40 yards per carry), and whose RT ALY ranking dropped 3 spots (up 0.13 yards per carry). At least in this instance the changes in player stats matched the changes in team stats: remember, the Niners' Rush DEF DVOA got 1.4% worse after the JAX game.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

Pretty much everything is the same here, including the fact that starting Dre Bly didn't seem to adversely affect the Niners' pass DEF against opposing #1 WRs. Of course, defending Mike Sims-Walker is just a tad bit easier than defending Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Greg Jennings. There is one descent-sized change, though: DVOA against receiving RBs. Another week, another game full of screen passes that gouge the 49ers' pass DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 11 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Still better than Hill, though not as instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement as you might think.
Frank Gore: Making the 49ers' run OFF better, but not making his own stats better.
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: Instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement.
The OL: Now officially the worst in the league.
The DF7: Great when not encountering triple whammies.
The secondary: Still better without Nate Clements; not better with Dre Bly.

Later this morning: 49ers-Seahawks game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Team Stats through Week 12

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 03:00:15 -0000

Welcome back for another installment of my weekly look at the 49ers' team stats and rankings according to Football Outsiders' (FO's) DVOA stat.* As I said in my Formula for Success post, the sample sizes are getting so large now that we shouldn't expect big fluctuations in the Niners' DVOAs (there is one exception this week, though). Nevertheless, the direction of week-to-week change is still informative, so I'll focus most of my commentary on that.

Speaking of commentary, I think that, over the past few weeks, I've provided just about every possible big-picture opinion about the 2009 49ers that I possibly can; with most of my opinions being about the OFF. Thankfully, the OFF seems to have addressed almost every one of my concerns. More shotgun? Check. More passing? Check. More downfield passing? Check. More 1st-quarter passing? Check. Therefore, I think it's time for me to pretty much shut my mouth. In this post, I'm just going to present the stats, and keep my comments very brief. I'll leave it to you guys to discuss any general (or specific) topics on the comments section.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here' how the offensive DVOA and VOA rankings look overall and by type of play, as well as how they've changed from last week (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Overall DVOA	-10.0%	21	-10.5%	22	+0.5%	+1
Overall VOA	-4.5%	20	-7.6%	23	+3.1%	+3
Pass DVOA	-4.4%	21	-3.5%	21	-0.9%	0
Pass VOA	4.4%	19	0.0%	21	+4.4%	+2
Rush DVOA	-4.2%	21	-5.3%	23	+1.1%	+2
Rush VOA	-3.0%	21	-2.9%	20	-0.1%	-1
Variance	5.4%	11	4.7%	6	-0.7%	-5

The 49ers' pass OFF is now an above average unit according to VOA, which is not adjusted for opponent. In addition, their overall OFF is getting closer and closer to having their heads back above water. At these levels, the 2009 OFF is playing its most efficiently - irrespective of opponent - since 2003. That's saying something.

After the jump, I'll present the rest of the team stats and rankings. There aren't many changes from last week, but the few that exist bode well for the Niners' stretch run...

And here's the OFF's Game-by-Game DVOA chart:

What stands out to me in this chart is how, after an initial (albeit extended) period during which the 49ers' run OFF benefitted from Alex Smith's promotion, the pass OFF has now caught up, with both units now in unison and slightly above average. The fact that both units have settled in at an average-to-slightly-above-average level provides evidence for my main theory for why promoting Smith, and thereby using more shotgun, would help. The point was to open up running lanes for Frank Gore by getting opposing Ss out of the box and giving the OL a numbers advantage in run blocking. A better running game, and the threat of a downfield passing game with Smith, would prevent opposing DEFs from being certain about defending the pass or run on a given play, and that would make the 49ers' OFF better overall. The early ascension of Rush OFF Game DVOA supports the "open running lanes for Gore + help the OL" part of the equation, and the convergence of Pass OFF and Rush OFF Game DVOA at a higher level supports the "49ers' OFF better overall" part of the equation. Feel free to disagree with me in the comments section.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - DOWN SPLITS

Here are the OFF's pass and run DVOAs by down (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
1st Down	-6.6%	22	-4.1%	20	-2.5%	-2
1st-Down Pass	-2.8%	21	-0.7%	21	-2.1%	0
1st-Down Run	-3.1%	16	0.6%	13	-3.7%	-3
2nd Down	-21.6%	29	-20.1%	29	-1.5%	0
2nd-Down Pass	-24.6%	29	-16.6%	27	-8.0%	-2
2nd-Down Run	-5.7%	24	-9.7%	23	+4.0%	-1
3rd Down	0.0%	19	-8.9%	21	+8.9%	+2
3rd-Down Pass	13.9%	18	6.4%	18	+7.5%	0
3rd-Down Run	-3.9%	24	-12.6%	26	+8.7%	+2

The key improvements here are on 3rd down. The 49ers are now exactly average on 3rd down overall, are well above average in 3rd-down passing, and are far less below-average in 3rd-down running. I'd say that's a good sign going forward.

Here are the OFF's DVOA down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
1st Down	-6.6%	22	-4.1%	20	-2.5%	-2
2nd Down	-21.6%	29	-20.1%	29	-1.5%	0
2nd & Short	-27.3%	28	-28.4%	27	+1.1%	-1
2nd & Mid	-17.1%	26	-11.5%	22	-5.6%	-4
2nd & Long	-21.3%	26	-20.9%	25	-0.4%	-1
3rd Down	0.0%	19	-8.9%	21	+8.9%	+2
3rd & Short	27.3%	8	9.5%	15	+17.8%	+7
3rd & Mid	-11.1%	18	-16.6%	22	+5.5%	+4
3rd & Long	-26.6%	23	-25.2%	23	-1.4%	0

I think we've uncovered the mechanism behind offensive improvement on 3rd down: a 17.8% jump in 3rd & Short OFF DVOA. Combine this with their above-discussed improvement in 3rd-down passing, and it makes you wonder if the Niners had a big passing play on 3rd/4th & short against the Jaguars. Man, wish I could remember. I also wish I could remember who it was that said they should pass the ball more on 3rd/4th down & short. Really, I need to stop getting old and forgetful here.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - HOME/ROAD SPLIT

Here's how the OFF's home and road DVOAs (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Home	-16.0%	29	-18.8%	28	+2.8%	-1
Road	-2.4%	17	-1.7%	18	-0.7%	+1
Difference	-13.6%	30	-17.1%	28	+3.5%	-2

Not much to see here in terms of week-to-week change. Only thing interesting is that the Niners' OFF dropped in the Home DVOA and Home/Road DVOA Difference rankings, despite actually getting better. All this means is that the other 15 home OFFs in Week 12 got even better.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - SCORE GAP SPLIT

Here are the score-gap splits for the 49ers' OFF (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Losing > 7	30.4%	6	29.7%	6	+0.7%	0
Tie/Losing ≤ 7	-25.2%	31	-25.2%	31	0.0%	0
Winning ≤ 7	-11.1%	22	-10.2%	22	-0.9%	0
Winning > 7	-28.7%	30	-50.4%	31	+21.7%	1

Obviously, the big change here is the OFF's improvement when winning by more than 7 points. However, given that the Niners hadn't previously run a lot of offensive plays while "winning big," this is the one stat that I think was, in fact, affected by sample size. The good thing, however, is that at least they "regressed towards the mean" rather than just plain "regressed." Nevertheless, the fact that they only jumped 1 spot in the rankings - despite a 21.7% improvement in DVOA - tells you just how horrible they were up until Sunday while winning by more than 7 points.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here's how the defensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Overall DVOA	-7.6%	7	-7.9%	6	-0.3%	-1
Overall VOA	-2.0%	12	1.4%	16	+3.4%	+4
Pass DVOA	-2.6%	11	-2.0%	11	+0.6%	0
Pass VOA	6.1%	17	13.4%	21	+7.3%	+4
Rush DVOA	-14.3%	4	-15.7%	5	-1.4%	+1
Rush VOA	-12.6%	6	-14.2%	6	-1.6%	0
Variance	7.8%	24	8.2%	24	+0.4%	0

Just about everything in this table reeks of "opponent adjustments." The Niners' unadjusted Pass DEF VOA got considerably better compared to last week, but their Pass DEF DVOA hardly budged. Their unadjusted Overall DEF VOA got slightly better, but their Overall DEF DVOA got slightly worse. Why? Because JAX was the #18 Pass OFF DVOA going into the game. In other words, the Niners pass DEF played well, but it came against a middle-of-the-road pass OFF.

Here's the DEF's Game-by-Game DVOA chart:

Pretty much no change here: The 49ers' Rush DEF is consistently better than its Pass DEF, with their overall DEF lying somewhere in the middle. What's nice to see, though, is that they're back on the upswing heading into the home stretch of the regular season. Let's hope they can sustain it.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - DOWN SPLITS

Here are the DEF's pass and run DVOAs by down and type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
1st Down	9.5%	24	2.4%	18	-7.1%	-6
1st-Down Pass	25.9%	24	16.8%	20	-9.1%	-4
1st-Down Run	-7.8%	16	-12.2%	13	-4.4%	-3
2nd Down	-24.5%	3	-20.7%	3	+3.8%	0
2nd-Down Pass	-19.5%	6	-10.1%	7	+9.4%	+1
2nd-Down Run	-29.6%	4	-31.4%	4	-1.8%	0
3rd Down	-14.3%	7	-8.7%	11	+5.6%	+4
3rd-Down Pass	-20.9%	10	-16.4%	11	+4.5%	+1
3rd-Down Run	6.6%	19	15.5%	21	+8.9%	+2

Similar to what changed on OFF, the DEF enjoyed their biggest improvement on 3rd down. Again, this bodes well for the future. When the OFF is able to extend drives, and the DEF is able to get off the field, good things are going to happen. We don't need stats to figure that one out, but it's nice to see the Niners heading in the right direction on both sides of the ball.

Here are the DEF's DVOA down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
1st Down	9.5%	24	2.4%	18	-7.1%	-6
2nd Down	-24.5%	3	-20.7%	3	+3.8%	0
2nd & Short	-19.3%	9	-23.5%	6	-4.2%	-3
2nd & Mid	33.0%	28	47.1%	30	+14.%	+2
2nd & Long	-44.2%	2	-38.7%	2	+5.5%	0
3rd Down	-14.3%	7	-8.7%	11	+5.6%	+4
3rd & Short	-28.8%	4	-13.9%	5	+14.9%	+1
3rd & Mid	-37.1%	7	-37.9%	6	-0.8%	-1
3rd & Long	34.6%	25	33.8%	25	-0.8%	0

Here, the big improvement was on 3rd & short. As I mentioned in my matchup review, those consecutive stops on 3rd & 1 and 4th & 2 were absolutely huge. Apparently, the DEF's 3rd & Short DVOA reflects just how huge they were. Keep it up guys.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - HOME/ROAD SPLIT

Here's how the DEF plays at home and on the road (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Home	-12.7%	2	-11.5%	3	+1.2%	+1
Road	-3.0%	13	-4.0%	12	-1.0%	-1
Difference	9.7%	5	7.5%	7	+2.2%	+2

As you can see, based on their performance against the Jaguars, the 49ers now have the #2 home DEF in the NFL. Who's the only team ahead of them? That would be SF's last road opponent, the Green Bay Packers. You gotta love the scheduling gods.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - SCORE GAP SPLIT

Here are the score-gap splits for the 49ers' DEF (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
DVOA Split	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Losing > 7	-4.4%	14	-6.2%	13	-1.8%	-1
Tie/Losing ≤ 7	-17.3%	2	-17.3%	2	0.0%	0
Winning ≤ 7	-1.1%	13	0.2%	18	+1.3%	+5
Winning > 7	15.0%	20	13.4%	21	-1.6%	+1

Obviously, the 49ers were never losing by more than 7 points against the Jags, so their change in Losing Big DEF DVOA is merely a byproduct of changes in the NFL average. However, they did spend a descent amount of the game winning by 7 or less, so that DVOA change is meaningful. Of course, as I said last week, it's not the DEF who's had a problem holding leads.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 11 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers:

My theory about the mechanism(s) through which starting Alex Smith would help the OFF continue to be supported as more and more data comes in.
Pass OFF, say hello to Rush OFF. Nice to see you guys finally playing together.
3rd-down OFF, say hello to the DEF. They've been waiting for you to help them out.
Play-from-ahead OFF, say hello to play-from-ahead DEF. They've been waiting for you to extend leads rather than make them have to hold on for 30 minutes against good OFFs.

Tomorrow morning, bright and early: player stats and rankings.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How confident are you that the 49ers' offense can sustain its recent progress?

Time for the Road to the NFC Championship to Take a Detour

ericj69 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:58:09 -0000

After Sunday night's game, they'll need to stick these outside of University of Phoenix Stadium if people are looking for the road to the Super Bowl.

View full size photo »

The Arizona Cardinals, defending NFC Champions, are well on their way to winning their second consecutive NFC West title this year.

If you would have read me that sentence two years ago, I would have told you to send me the link to the rest of the article from The Onion, since it was obviously a joke. (If you had read me that sentence in 2001, I would have just assumed you knew nothing about the NFL since Arizona was obviously in the NFC East. You hypothetical dumbass from the past.)

But it's true. Arizona somehow made the Super Bowl last year. The same team that Tarvaris Jackson torched for an easy Minnesota 35-14 win in Arizona last year. And even after Vince Young gave Matt Leinart an acid flashback of the 2006 Rose Bowl last week, the Cardinals are still perched atop their division by two games. (Note: I totally didn't mean to make the lame "Cardinals/perched" pun there, but I'm not surprised that I accidentally did.) Technically, the road to the NFC Championship still runs through Glendale, AZ.

But only until Sunday night, if everything goes well for the Vikes. A win for the Purple means the road to Super Bowl XLIV takes a detour away from Arizona.

If the Vikings prevail in the desert, they'll guarantee that Arizona would get the third seed in the NFC at the very best, assuring the Cardinals will have to go on the road to make it back to the Super Bowl. (Yes, I realize they won a road game to get there last year, but they still won the NFC Championship at home. Just stay with my flimsy detour theme here. I posted a picture of a sign and everything.)

But just like creating real detours, we shouldn't expect this one to go smoothly. Yes, Favre is exponentially better than T-Jax. However, we're not the only team that has a Social Security-eligible quarterback that's still playing well. I know Kurt Warner missed last week's game, but I'd be surprised if he didn't play based on what I've heard this week. We have a strong core of receivers in El Sid, Percy, B-Twice, and Shank. But Larry Fitzgerald is still the best receiver in the game (you can mention Andre Johnson here, but he's tied with Fitz at the very best). Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are nothing to sneeze at either. If ever there was a game for Antoine Winfield to make his glorious return to the field, it's this one.

And would you look at this--the Cardinals even brought a little bit of a running game this year. They even average more than 2.3 yards a carry! Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower aren't greatest backfield committee ever (that's Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen, of course) but they've added a dimension to Arizona that wasn't really there last year.

Most of us know that stopping the Cards' offense will be tough. But what about the D? From what I've seen of Arizona and learned from the guys over at Revenge Of The Birds, they're better than the numbers show. They're 24th in total yards, but still in the top half of the league in points allowed and tied for fourth in sacks. Defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could give our line some trouble. Karlos Dansby leads the team in tackles and will be a tough test for our running game. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is not only annoying to type out, he's also annoying to play against. If Favre can't duplicate his zero-interception November, DRC is always a threat to take picks back to the house. I'd still take Minnesota's defense over Arizona's any day, but it doesn't mean we'll be able to duplicate the easy day in the desert we had last year.

While it would be nice to take another step towards Dome-field advantage, it would also be good to get another victory against a winning team. The only issue the critics have taken with Minnesota this year is "who have they played?" To be honest, the critics have a point. As Bill Simmons said today in his article:

Combined record of the nine teams they've defeated this season: 39-71. Let's give them 2009 Winston Wolf Memorial "Don't Start Sucking Each Other's Popsicles Yet" status.

A win on the road over the 7-4 Cards would give us a little more credibility heading towards the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the detour from Arizona might go south to New Orleans even if Minnesota is victorious on Sunday. I'm sure most of you saw the Saints absolutely disassemble the Patriots on Monday night. The Saints offense is formidable to say the least, but that's not what worries me most about N'awlins. That Superdome crowd was absolutely BONKERS the entire game. Could you imagine them in an NFC Championship Game with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance on the line? My ear drums are throbbing just thinking about it. Let's hope the Saints drop a couple games down the stretch so we can show them how loud the Metrodome can get in late January. But first thing's first--let's start the construction for the detour on Sunday!

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cardinals 24

The rest of my Week 13 NFL picks (home team in CAPS):

COLTS over Titans: These teams are six games apart in the standings, yet they may be the best two teams in the AFC right now. The Titans make an intriguing upset pick here--until you realize it's still Vince Young vs. Peyton Manning. Young is a winner, but he still throws like Uncle Rico.

Texans over JAGUARS: Would you ever pick either of these teams to win a game if your life depended on it? This game could a blowout either way and I can honestly say I wouldn't be surprised. Let's just move on before I change this pick like I already have six times.

Broncos over CHIEFS: The Chiefs as a team are as broken as Tiger Woods' Escalade. But don't tell that to Jamaal Charles, your 2009 Late-Season Fantasy Pickup From A Terrible Team MVP!

STEELERS over Raiders: The Steelers are on a three-game losing streak. If you had to pick an NFL team to play at home to break a three-game losing streak, wouldn't just about everyone pick the Raiders? I sure would.

Saints over REDSKINS: Yeah, that whole "Detour to Minnesota" theme of my column isn't going to get any help from Washington this week.

BENGALS over Lions: My Eliminator pick of the week--still alive at 12-0! If the Bengals lose two games in the easiest stretch of scheduling ever (Oakland-Cleveland-Detroit), they should be relegated to the UFL.

BEARS over Rams: Two weeks ago, the Seahawks came to the Dome and got pounded. They got to play the Rams the following week. Last week, the Bears came to the Dome and got embarrassed. They get to play the Rams this week. Call it the "NFL Scheduling Mercy Rule".

PANTHERS over Buccaneers: Jake Delhomme is out this week. Does that help or hurt Carolina's chances? Really, I'm serious. I've never even heard of Matt Moore until this week, but I can't imagine he'd be any worse.

Eagles over FALCONS: No Matty Ice for Atlanta this week. Which means they'll have to switch to McNabbelob Golden Light.

Chargers over BROWNS: I literally ran out of jokes to make about the Browns. So instead, I'll treat you to the best NFL theme song ever:

As a bonus, I'll also treat you to the Charger cheerleaders:

There--I bet you've forgotten all about those rotten Browns by now!

GIANTS over Cowboys: It's December. You know what that means Cowboy fans! Time for some melting down!

49ers over SEAHAWKS: Meh. I just need Vernon Davis and Frank Gore to have big weeks for me to clinch the regular season title in one of my fantasy leagues. So I'm picking San Fran.

Patriots over DOLPHINS: The Patriots don't lose two games in a row. I think it's a league rule or something.

Ravens over PACKERS: I have a bunch of Packer fan friends that are heading to Lambeau for this game. Please oh please, Baltimore, ruin their day for me!

Last week: 11-5

Season so far: 123-54 (including getting Thursday's game wrong)

49ers-Seahawks: Final Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:00:31 -0000

We've got the final injury report with one somewhat surprising addition. RB Justin Forsett was a full participant in practice today but is now listed as questionable because of a quad injury. Julius Jones is certainly no scrub, but given recent performances, if Forsett is limited or out on Sunday I'd be a much happier camper. Even when Forsett was shut down in the rushing attack at Minnesota, he still contributed big as a receiver. I'm glad the former Cal star is developing into a solid NFL running back, but I'd prefer he take a week off and not burn the 49ers.

After the jump we've got Coach Mike Singletary's post-practice press conference transcript.

49ers
Out
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)

Doubtful
OT Joe Staley (knee)
DT Kentwan Balmer (shoulder)

Questionable
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
CB Marcus Hudson (back)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)

Probable
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
LB Ahmad Brooks (thumb)
WR Brandon Jones (thumb)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
DT Ray McDonald (shoulder)
RB Michael Robinson (shoulder)
OT Adam Snyder (shoulder)

Seahawks
Doubtful
LB D.D. Lewis (knee)
DT Cory Redding (concussion)

Questionable
RB Justin Forsett (quad)
DE Lawrence Jackson (groin)

Probable
RB Julius Jones (chest)
C Chris Spencer (thumb)

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Practice - December 4, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statements:

"Good afternoon. In terms of injuries, [CB] Marcus Hudson, questionable; [LT] Joe Staley, questionable; [CB] Nate Clements, out. I think everybody else is about what it was."

On LB Takeo Spikes' status:

"Takeo, game-time.

[Bob Lange: ‘It's actually doubtful.']

Singletary: Did I say doubtful?

[Lange: ‘You said questionable.']

Singletary: Doubtful. Sorry."

On how Staley is progressing:

"He's working. Working out and squatting. He's getting excited. So, hopefully it all works out."

On whether it gets more difficult because opposing teams are expecting more of a spread look:

"I think it really comes down to executing. You can change to any kind of offense you want to be, but if it's not effective, than it's not going to force it to be any more difficult for them. I think when you execute running the ball, when you execute throwing the ball, now that's when you make it more difficult for coordinators and teams to prepare."

On whether he gets the sense that opposing defenses are still keying RB Frank Gore as the No. 1 priority:

"I would think so. I would think if you look at Frank and what he's been able to do when he has been able to run, the possibility is always there, and you don't want to really let him get started. So, I would think that would be the first thought."

On whether the players understand the sense of urgency going into a must-win game on Sunday:

"We'll see on Sunday. We'll see Sunday. I think they do, but we'll find out."

On whether Seattle being healthier now presents more of a challenge than earlier this season:

"As you go through the year, guys are hurt, guys are up. We still have guys hurt. So, that's the nature of the game. You just go out there and play the game as best you can, and, hopefully, the No. 2 guys that you have, when they do have to play, that's what it's all about. The 53 guys that you have, they're supposed to be the best that you can get. So, hopefully, that next group of player that you have in there, you don't make excuses and say, ‘Well, we didn't have this guy. We didn't have that guy.' It's part of the game."

On whether it's frustrating as a coach that you can't practice tackling during the week:

"Tackling is more of an attitude than anything else. I believe that if you want to tackle somebody, you can, and you'll find a way to get them down. And, that's really what it comes down to."

On whether he is at a point where he is looking at the standings and trying to figure out what he needs to do to get to where he wants to by the end of the season:

"I'm just looking at winning. That's all. I don't try to be real good at math, I just try to really focus on what's really important because to me, if you're playing well, that's vitally important that you begin to - it's that team at this time of the year that begins to gain the momentum, begins to play better and begins to have a sense of urgency when they're playing. It's that team that's going to make it anyway. It's very important that you focus on winning games and being consistent down the stretch. I think that's what we're focused on. All of the other stuff about who wins and who loses and how many wins do we need, if we're focusing on that, then that's not good."

On how he felt about the week of practice:

"I felt it was a good week. It wasn't great. But, I don't think it's ever great, but it was a good, good week."