SB Nation - Roderick Green

The Eric DeCosta Scorecard

John Morgan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 02:32:25 -0000

Eric DeCosta's living resume, in repose.

(What follows is over seven pages and 2,500 words long. If you're interested in the gist of it, scroll down to the end.)

I did an overview on Eric DeCosta, but think I can do better and think you deserve better. Here's an attempt to hold DeCosta by the same standard I held Steve Keim. First I will look at his work as a Midwest scout for the Ravens from 1998-2002, and then his work as the director of college scouting from 2003-2009.

Baltimore did not draft a talent from the Midwest until 2001.

2001

3) 92 Casey Rabach C Wisconsin

4) 126 Edgerton Hartwell LB Western Illinois

7) 231 Dwayne Missouri DE Northwestern

Casey Rabach might remind some of Seattle's Chris Spencer situation. Rabach was drafted in the third round by the Ravens but struggled to break through early in his career. He then signed with the Redskins and became the most consistent player on their offensive line.

Hartwell was a pretty good value for the round he was taken in. He started his second season and from 2002-2004 before leaving in free agency. His approximate value in those seasons is 9, 8 and 9. Atlanta signed him to a six-year, $26.25 million contract before 2005, but injuries sapped his ability and he was cut in 2007.

Missouri is a seventh round pick that never broke through.

2002

2) 52 Anthony Weaver DE Notre Dame

4) 112 Dave Zastudil P Ohio U.

4) 123 Ron Johnson WR Minnesota

6) 206 Javin Hunter WR Notre Dame

6) 207 Chester Taylor RB Toledo

We see the rising influence of DeCosta in this draft, his last as a regional scout before being promoted. Weaver was a solid pick in the second. He was able to start his rookie season and started 16, 15 and 15 games before a host of injuries sidelined him in 2005. DeCosta scores twice on Weaver: For drafting him in the second and acquiring a Lawrence Jackson like end and for not re-signing him after injuries took their toll. Weaver looked like a stud back then, but fizzled away from Baltimore.

If you draft a punter in the fourth, he better stick and he better be great. Zastudil is not, by all accounts. His rookie season with Baltimore, the Ravens were below average punting the ball, and over his four season, he was twice below average and twice above average - almost in equal degrees. I am starting to think it is very hard to evaluate a punter from an outsider's perspective. I disagree with drafting a punter so early, but it seems Zastudil is, if nothing else, a competent punter that can be good.

Johnson never developed as a receiver or returner and was last a linebacker and receiver for the Cleveland Gladiators.

Hunter's career peak was a 63 yard kickoff return in 2002. He is not the same kind of flat bust as Johnson. Hunter started strong in the preseason and started three regular season games as a rookie. He ruptured his Achilles before the start of 2003 and was never the same player. Push.

Chester Taylor started his career as a third down back, but slowly worked himself into the running back rotation. Taylor was buried behind Jamal Lewis, but still produced, was signed by Minnesota in 2006, rushed for 1,200 yards, and was then buried behind Adrian Peterson. Taylor has been valuable throughout his career and is a huge win on DeCosta's resume.

Starting in 2003, we must assume DeCosta took a leadership position in the Ravens entire draft.

2003

1) 10 Terrell Suggs OLB Arizona State

1) 19 Kyle Boller QB California

3) 77 Musa Smith RB Georgia

4) 109 Jarret Johnson DE Alabama

4) 134 Ovie Mughelli FB Wake Forest

5) 146 Aubrayo Franklin DT Tennessee

5) 173 Tony Pashos T Illinois

6) 182 Gerome Sapp DB Notre Dame

7) 223 Trent Smith TE Oklahoma

7) 250 Mike Mabry C Central Florida

7) 258 Antwoine Sanders - Utah

Suggs has been a baller from snap one. He was a situational pass rusher as a rookie and recorded 12 sacks. He has 56.5 for his career, 5 interceptions, 32 passes defended and 18 forced fumbles. Suggs is an elite player, still only 27, and a young 27, and a grand slam pick for DeCosta.

Boller is everything I said about Suggs, applied to a quarterback, inverted and intensified. A complete bust that looked the part of a bust, my only tempering of this massive misstep by DeCosta is that Brian Billick pushed hard for Boller, and in those days, Billick was a respected coach, and a force slapdicks shouldn't defy.

Musa Smith looked like a talented back on his way up before Roy Williams effectively ended his career with a horse collar tackle. Smith suffered a compound fracture of his tibia. The play directly led to the banning of horse collar tackles, but the damage was done for Smith. He played sparingly the next two seasons and could never reestablish himself. Push.

Jarret Johnson took a slow path to success, but has been a regular starter in four of the last five seasons. A very good pick that is still paying dividends for the Ravens, notably, Johnson's AV in 2008 was 10, better than Bart Scott.

Mughelli didn't break through right away with the Ravens, but is now considered one of the best fullbacks in football. He was good in his final two seasons in Baltimore, but lured away when Atlanta offered him big bucks. A minor success for what they got.

The hits keep coming: Franklin was a valuable rotational player for Baltimore, even starting once, and is now a starter for San Francisco. Mike Nolan targeted Franklin, which says something about his perceived value, and though he never fully broke through with Baltimore, he was playing behind Kelly Gregg. Not a horn-blowing success, but very good value for the pick.

Pashos is what a right tackle should be: cheap and good enough. A good player for Baltimore and eventually Jacksonville, Pashos is a good run blocker that was a great value for the Ravens.

Gerome Sapp couldn't stick with the Ravens, signed with the Colts and then signed again with the Ravens. He played nickelback. Neither a bust nor hit, but a pick spent on a semi-talented player that just didn't fit on the roster.

Smith, Mabry and Sanders had no noteworthy NFL career.

2004

2) 51 Dwan Edwards DT Oregon State

3) 82 Devard Darling WR Washington State

5) 153 Roderick Green LB Central Missouri State

6) 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green State

6) 199 Clarence Moore WR Northern Arizona

7) 244 Derek Abney WR Kentucky

7) 246 Brian Rimpf T East Carolina

Edwards is still a sometimes starter, sometimes rotational end for the Ravens. He is neither a bust nor a hit, but a semi-valuable player acquired with a semi-valuable pick.

Darling never produced for Baltimore, and that's quite an achievement, because the 2004 Ravens leading receiver was Travis Taylor. Taylor had 421 yards receiving. Darling was last in Kansas City. His current whereabouts are unknown, but, presumably, not in Kansas anymore.

Green struggled to produce, was stabbed July 2006, subsequently released and is now out of the league.

The rest of the draft barely made an impact and all four are now out of the league. After ruling draft day, DeCosta's second draft produced no starters, and only one regular.

2005

1) 22 Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma

2) 53 Dan Cody LB Oklahoma

2) 64 Adam Terry T Syracuse

4) 124 Jason Brown C North Carolina

5) 158 Justin Green RB Montana

6) 213 Derek Anderson QB Oregon State

7) 234 Mike Smith LB Texas Tech

Clayton had a strong rookie season, an even better sophomore season and has since spun his wheels into the mud. The 22^nd overall pick, Clayton is not a prize, but surely a value, still young, and maybe has better seasons ahead of him.

Cody was a fine prospect whose career has been eaten by injuries. He started 42 games in college. Best to call this a push, as the injury seemed unpredictable and traumatic.

Terry was a second round selection that never fully broke out of spot starter duties. Terry has not played in 2009. This is another pick muddled by injuries and therefore hard to evaluate.

Jason Brown started his second season and is a highly regarded center. St. Louis threw smarts to the wind and signed him to googolplex dollars this past offseason, but, for three seasons, he was a cheap and very good center for Baltimore.

Justin Green was a special teams contributor.

Anderson was waived his first season and claimed by the Cleveland Browns. He then had one of the great fluke quarterback seasons of all time, before retreating into his well furnished mansion of suck.

Smith contributed briefly for the Ravens on special teams.

2006

1) 12 Haloti Ngata DT Oregon

2) 56 Chris Chester C Oklahoma

3) 87 David Pittman DB Northwestern State-Louisiana

4) 111 Demetrius Williams WR Oregon

4) 132 P.J. Daniels RB Georgia Tech

5) 146 Dawan Landry SS Georgia Tech

5) 166 Quinn Sypniewski TE Colorado

6) 203 Sam Koch P Nebraska

6) 208 Derrick Martin CB Wyoming

7) 219 Ryan LaCasse LB Syracuse

Ngata is considered one of the best 3-4 linemen in football. He has played end and tackle, is just entering his prime, and should the conditions be right, could be entering a lengthy run of Pro Bowl appearances.

Chester was recruited as a tight end, drafted as a center, converted to guard, converted again to tight end and then converted back to guard again. He has 32 starts in his NFL career, and if never a stand out on his own, has been a good part of some very good offensive lines.

Pittman had two interception in 2007 and a forced fumble. That about summarizes his NFL career. He now plays in the UFL.

Williams is a field stretcher that has never come into his own as an actual receiver. He is not a bad player, and is valuable for his draft position.

Daniels was put on injured reserve prior to his second season and never recovered.

Dawan Landry has started three of the last four seasons, and, apart from 2008, has been a very solid starter for Baltimore since his rookie season. He used to noogie LaRon Landry.

Sypniewski was primarily a blocking tight end, but received some in 2007 after Todd Heap and Daniel Wilcox suffered injuries. He tore his ACL prior to this season.

Koch is the Ravens current punter. This season the team is slightly above average punting.

Martin is a talented young defensive back that was buried in Baltimore and now plays in Green Bay. Baltimore traded Martin for offensive tackle Tony Moll.

LaCasse never factored.

2007

1) 29 Ben Grubbs G Auburn

3) 74 Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State

3) 86 Marshal Yanda T Iowa

4) 134 Antwan Barnes LB Florida International

4) 137 Le'Ron McClain FB Alabama

5) 174 Troy Smith QB Ohio State

6) 207 Prescott Burgess LB Michigan

Supplemental

5) Jared Gaither T Maryland

Baltimore built their left side with this draft and in impressive fashion. Grubbs is a promising young starter and on the short list for best young offensive guards in football.

Yamon Figurs returned a kick and a punt for a touchdown in his first season, but could never stick as a receiver. Once the Ravens found a better return man, Figurs was cut, and is currently a free agent.

Yanda is a spot starter at guard and tackle that may have outright won the right guard position this season after starting the last four games and playing ably. I'm a big fan of Yanda.

Barnes is a rotational linebacker and special teams player for the Ravens.

McClain is a fullback better known for his rushing than blocking, but so what? He was astonishingly valuable in 2008 and the 11-5 Ravens leading rusher. This season he is buried behind Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. McClain's is a curious story to say the least. I am not sure he will ever repeat his 2008 performance, and certainly some of that performance must be credited the Ravens line, but for that year alone, we must credit DeCosta with another fullback find.

Smith was a member of the jobbers row of quarterbacks Seattle fattened against in 2007. He is now a Wildcat quarterback.

Burgess has split time between the Ravens and Patriots, and is, essentially, depth and a special teams player.

Gaither is the crown jewel of this class. DeCosta got Gaither for a fifth round pick in the supplemental draft, and now he is their starting left tackle, and franchise tackle of the future. Gaither isn't in the class of young Turk left tackles taking over the NFL, but he's close, a rare physical specimen (the tallest man in the NFL), a powerful drive blocker with developing pass pro skills. He was available in the supplemental draft because of bad grades, and available in the fifth round of the supplemental draft because a lot of other GMs didn't do their homework.

That leads us to the last draft we'll look at in detail.

1) 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware

2) 55 Ray Rice RB Rutgers

3) 71 Tavares Gooden OLB Miami (Fla.)

3) 86 Tom Zbikowski FS Notre Dame

3) 99 Oniel Cousins T Texas-El Paso

4) 106 Marcus Smith WR New Mexico

4) 133 David Hale G Weber State

6) 206 Haruki Nakamura FS Cincinnati

7) 215 Justin Harper WR Virginia Tech

7) 240 Allen Patrick RB Oklahoma

Joe Flacco is a franchise quarterback.

Ray Rice is one of the best young running backs in football.

Bart Scott's replacement doesn't fill a stat sheet, but Tavares Gooden is starting for a top ten defense in his second season. It's premature to pass judgment on T-Good.

Everyone's favorite boxing white safety is mostly a special teams force, but in three starts this season, he has two interceptions and four passes defended. I liked this pick when it was made, but it's, again, a little early to project his future value.

Cousins has started the last two games at right tackle, but through force of attrition rather than eminent skill. Nevertheless, one injury ravaged offensive line to another, Cousins seems more capable than some of Seattle's replacements.

The next three players are special teamers, and Allen Patrick was cut.

2004 was a hot mess, and, tellingly, occurred after DeCosta swept the 2003 draft. So, all GMs and potential GMs have their highs and lows, but DeCosta's highs certainly seem to outnumber and more than compensate for his lows. If we wanted to put a stamp on his career in Baltimore, I would stamp it a success, but let's attempt something a little more nuanced.

He seems to excel at drafting offensive line talent. He has never invested major resources into the offensive line but still acquired Rabach, Pashos, Terry, Brown, Chester, Sypnewski, Grubbs, Yanda, Gaither and Cousins. He also has had several successes drafting defensive linemen, linebackers, running backs, fullbacks and safeties. His run of backs is particularly impressive. He doesn't trend towards a specific region and seems to have no major leanings towards small schools or big schools. His success at drafting quarterbacks is mixed. Kyle Boller was an inexcusable failure, but Anderson and Smith were decent value for their pick position and Flacco is a young stud. Truthfully, I'm not wild about Flacco's profile, and though he's stepping into this own, the big bodied, big armed profile DeCosta seems to favor is notorious for producing busts.

What excites me most about DeCosta is not his drafting record, but the prolific picks he secures. Few teams enter draft day so consistently stocked with picks throughout the draft, and unlike other GMs that will burn those picks to move up and select their guy, DeCosta stands pat and picks many players. He has benefited immensely from trawling the draft and seeing what value shakes out.

His high profile and history of finding offensive line talent should make him a favorite for the Seattle position. I don't know that DeCosta is the "Z" we desire, but on second inspection, he is a young, well connected executive with a diverse portfolio of success.

Sticking to Who & What You Know

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 13:30:07 -0000

You may have heard that 2009 Free Agency has commenced in the NFL. If not, welcome back to Planet Earth. These are always exciting times; for some franchises, the most thrilling of the year (unfortunately). In recent years, free agency has been more like a free-for-all to the likes of Daniel Snyder, Jerry Jones and our old friend Mike Shanahan. These are happy days, so I will avoid using this space to list all of the big free-agency busts we've seen pass through Denver.

Many fans would love to see Denver again make a huge splash in free agency, by bringing in the likes of Ray Lewis, Derrick Ward, Chris Canty and/or Ronald Bartrell. Such moves may perhaps be on tap, but it is important not to laugh off the smaller, complementary moves that are sure to come as well. The Broncos' Super Bowl run was fueled in part by major acquisitions like Alfred Williams, Neil Smith and Bill Romanowski. But in retrospect, moves that failed to open eyes at the time proved just as crucial - Ed McCaffrey, Howard Griffith and Tyrone Braxton come to mind.

Then-coach Mike Shanahan (doensn't that read strangely?) brought Easy Ed with him from San Francisco after an unimpressive 11-catch season with the Niners. McCaffrey had been unceremoniously dumped by Dan Reeves and the Giants after three seasons before that. Braxton, of course was a 12th-round gem from North Dakota State who spent seven seasons in Denver before heading southeast to Miami. Denver thought he was washed up as a cornerback, but Shanny brought him back to play strong safety. To say that these signings were a success would be quite the understatement today. More after the break...

But how do those acquisitions relate to Denver's current situation? Well, there is a lot to be said for sticking with who and what you know best, especially when entering a new situation. The shock of moving to a new city can be eased by the presence of an old friend or relative, and football is no different. For Josh McDaniels, Brian Xanders and Mike Nolan, the Broncos Organization is that new city (I know, Nolan isn't really new, bear with me). Nothing will make the transition easier for those three men than the presence of a few old friends.

McDaniels of course, was a longtime assistant of Bill Belichick's, who in turn assisted Bill Parcells in several endeavors. Together and separately, the two Bill's have been responsible for 7 Super Bowl appearances, including 5 victories. Much of what they do is obviously quite successful, and among their favorite housewarming gifts have always been their own former players. For Parcells, the list includes players such as Vinny Testaverde, Keyshawn Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, Dave Meggett, Richie Anderson, Terry Glenn, Chad Pennington, Jason Fabini and Jason Ferguson. Belichick has remained loyal to old friends like Otis Smith, Roman Phifer, Anthony Pleasant, Bobby Hamilton, Testaverde, Ray Mickens, Kyle Brady, Joe Morris, Carl Banks and Pepper Johnson.

Certainly, many of the names on those preceding lists are/were stars in their own rights, but most of them were re-acquired by the two Bill's on what was considered to be the downside of their respective careers. Parcells and Belichick have always stuck with the players they know, and for good reason. Even if those players were no longer in their prime, the Bill's were bringing in known quantities, and there is no way to overstate the importance of such moves. Certainly, the Bill's garner quite a bit of respect from their players, but keep in mind that Belichick didn't arrive in New England with a sparkling resume as a head coach. When a new coach arrives at an organization, he surely has a lot on his plate - getting to know how the team has been run, acclimating himself to a new city and more importantly, to a new boss and a new roster. The players' collective confidence in their new coach is quite obviously crucial to his potential success, and who better to lead the way than the players who believe in the coach already, who have seen his schemes, game-planning and play-calling in action?

That said, it makes complete sense for Josh McDaniels, Brian Xanders and Mike Nolan to bring in a bunch of players they're already familiar with. They may not all be the flashiest of names, but they may be no-less important to the Broncos' future successes. Here are a few candidates...

Marques Douglas, Defensive End, BAL - Douglas played for Mike Nolan in Baltimore from 2001-2004, and when Nolan left for San Francisco the following year, he packed Douglas up with him. Douglas played with the Niners for three seasons before heading back to Baltimore in 2008. Over 104 games, Douglas has racked up 371 tackles, 19 sacks and defensed 10 passes.

Roderick Green, Linebacker, SF - Green is another old friend of Mike Nolan's, spending his first two years in Baltimore before heading west with Nolan in 2005. Green is a backup linebacker who has appeared in 54 games, totaling 45 tackles, 12 sacks and 1 pass defensed.

James Sanders, Safety, NE - Sanders has appeared in 55 games for the Patriots over four seasons, starting 36 of them. Chosen by New England in the 4th round of the 2005 Draft, Sanders has accumulated 195 tackles, 1 sack, 8 passes defensed and 5 interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown.

Rodney Harrison, Safety, NE - Harrison certainly requires no introduction to Broncos fans. In fact, we all know and loathe him quite sincerely from Harrison's years of taking cheap-shots at John Elway. In fact, it looked like he was headed to the Broncos after his release from the Chargers, only to be snapped up by Belichick's Patriots instead. Harrison is recovering from a serious knee injury, so health questions would surely dominate. But all that considered, Harrison is unquestionably a fine football player and one of the better leaders in the game. Over 186 games, Harrison has amassed 634 tackles, 30.5 sacks, 42 passes defensed and 34 interceptions which resulted in 2 touchdowns.

Heath Evans, Fullback, NE - Evans has been primarily a blocking fullback with the Pats, getting the occasional carry or reception. Over 9 seasons with three teams, Evans has carried the ball 157 times for 561 yards, along with 40 receptions for 328 yards. Evans has scored 4 touchdowns during his NFL career.

Jabar Gaffney, Wide Receiver, NE - Gaffney spent 3 years in New England with McDaniels, during which he caught 85 passes for 1,059 yards and 8 touchdowns. Over his 7-year career, he has accumulated 256 receptions for 3,068 yards and 15 touchdowns. Gaffney is expected to visit Dove Valley in the coming days. Update - Gaffney has reportedly signed a 4-year, $10-million deal with Denver, including $3 million in guarantees. Here's what Scouts Inc has to say...

"Gaffney is coming off his seventh season in the league and continues to be a solid No. 3 receiver for the Patriots. He is a solid athlete, but is not an explosive route-runner. He is a crafty veteran who is instinctive finding voids. He can set defenders up well by changing speeds and he understands the little nuances of the position. He doesn't have great strength to break tackles or as a stalk-blocker, but gives good effort on the perimeter. He tracks the deep ball well and has courage and concentration in traffic. Gaffney is a solid route-runner with good quickness in and out of break points, but doesn't have great speed to stretch deep zones."

Mike Wright, Defensive End, NE - Over four seasons with New England, Wright has appeared in 54 games, racking up 83 tackles and 4 sacks. He may be just the sort of no-glory 3-4 defensive end McDaniels and Nolan will require to instill their new scheme.

Ronald Fields, Defensive Tackle, SF - Drafted in 2005 by Nolan's Niners, Fields has suited up 49 times in his career, totaling 75 tackles, 1 sack and 1 pass defensed. Listed at 6'2" 315 pounds, Mike Lombardi of NFP predicted Fields would be one of the most impactful signings of 2009 free agency, expecting him to land in Denver.

Allen Rossum, Cornerback, SF - Primarily a kick returner, Rossum was brought to San Francisco by Nolan before last season. In 147 games, Rossum has made 86 tackles in limited cornerback duty, while returning 506 kicks for a 23.3-yard average and 5 touchdowns. Rossum has also returned 295 punts for an average of 10.1 yards and 3 touchdowns. Update - Rossum has reportedly been re-signed by the Niners.

Takeo Spikes, Linebacker, SF - Also signed by Mike Nolan a year ago, Spikes made 96 tackles, 1 sack and knocked down 6 passes, forcing 2 fumbles and intercepting 3 passes. Over 11 seasons, Spikes has amassed 1,055 tackles and 23.5 sacks, 14 forced fumbles, 15 interceptions and 55 passes defensed. Update - San Francisco re-signed Spikes to the tune of a 2-year deal, according to Adam Schefter.

Damane Duckett, Defensive Tackle, SF - Duckett was hampered by a knee injury last year. He has seen very limited action, dressing for 20 games over 4 seasons and accumulating zero statistics.

Keith Lewis, Safety, SF - Lewis is a backup free safety who spent his first 5 seasons with the Niners, dressing for 76 games and racking up 114 tackles, 1 sack, 5 passes defensed and 3 interceptions.

Donald Strickland, Cornerback, SF - Nolan brought Strickland to San Fran in 2006. Over 6 seasons, Strickland has dressed for 49 games, accumulating 118 tackles, 14 passes defensed and 2 interceptions as a nickel- and dime-back.

Tyson Clabo, Offensive Tackle, ATL - Clabo is familiar to Brian Xanders and Rick Dennison - he spent the 2004 season on Denver's roster before heading to Atlanta, where he started 37 games over 3 years. As Atlants's starting right tackle, he is unlikely to return to Denver as a backup, especially since Clabo is a restricted FA.

Michael Jenkins, Wide Receiver, ATL - The Falcons' 2004 1st-round choice out of Ohio State, Jenkins has caught 185 passes for 2,372 yards and 17 touchdowns over 5 seasons.

Lawyer Milloy, Safety, ATL - Milloy has spent 13 seasons in the NFL, first with New England, then Buffalo and Atlanta. In 202 games, Milloy has tallied 1,309 tackles, 17 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 81 passes defensed and 25 interceptions for 1 touchdown. Still an effective player and leader, Milloy was credited with 93 tackles in 2008, with 1 interception, 1 forced fumble and 5 passes defensed.

Yes, it is a lengthy list, and certainly the Broncos will not be interested in all of them. But keep in mind that while we may not all be very familiar with some of these players, Josh McDaniels, Brian Xanders and Mike Nolan know them all quite well - Nolan liked several of them enough to truck them cross-country with him to San Francisco from Baltimore. McDaniels has brought with him an entirely new offensive playbook, while Nolan will be shifting the defense over to a 3-4 scheme as quickly as the personnel will allow. These coaches will require players familiar with how they do business, whether it be practicing, game-planning or making the proper decisions on the field come Sunday. The incumbent players on Denver's roster will require some translating, not to mention some confidence that what the coaches are preaching can actually work. Not all of them would fit in Denver's plans, but keep an eye on these players. We may soon be getting to know a few of them, much in the way McDaniels, Xanders and Nolan already do.

After I finished this story, the Broncos signed LS Lonie Paxton from New England, giving him a 5-year deal worth $5.3 million and a $1-million signing bonus. Here's what Scouts Inc. has to say about Paxton...

"Comment: Paxton is an eight-year veteran who has had a solid career as a long snapper. He is listed as a center. But he is undersized for the position. His only value is on special teams. He is very consistent with his accuracy as both a long and short snapper. Paxton has a very small hitch in his delivery, but gets it back quickly. He does a nice job to snap and step to cover his gap responsibility as a blocker. He has decent speed to cover in his lane and can be effective to make a tackle in the open field. He does a nice job changing his timing to keep the defense from getting a jump on his snap. He is a tough, competitive player who is good at his craft. It's likely Paxton will be back with the Patriots unless he tries to get an unreasonable payday."

Statistical Review of the 2008 San Francisco 49ers: III. Defense and Special Teams

Florida Danny — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 16:00:11 -0000

So far this week I've reviewed the 49ers' overall and offensive stats for the 2008 season. Today, in the third, and final, part of my season review, I'm going to focus on defense and special teams performance.

The conventional wisdom about the 49ers' defense this past season is that Nolan's advocacy of a 3-4/4-3 hybrid base defense, and his affinity for the "Big Sub" (BS?) package, were obstacles to effective performance, and that Singletary's shift to a BS-lite, 3-4 defense led to defensive improvement later in the season. As has often been the case, the conventional wisdom is only half-right. Which half is right? Keep reading for the answer.

THE FLIP SIDE

Below is a table showing the 49ers' defensive performance this past season (Remember, positive percentages mean below average defense):

Defensive Category	Statistic	Rank
DVOA	8.8%	19
Weighted DVOA	14.5%	24
DVOA Variance	2.7%	2
Pass DVOA	15.7%	20
Rush DVOA	1.0%	18

Compared to the offensive stats I presented yesterday, the Niners' defense was more efficient and more consistent. However, like the offense, the defense was actually worse towards the end of the season than it was during the beginning or middle of the season. As you'll see a little later, though, that's not to say that the defense wasn't improving at the end of the season. In terms of defense against specific types of plays, the run defense was considerably better than the pass defense.

Below is a graph that tracks total defense, pass defense, and rush defense DVOA from 2004-2008:

Unbeknownst to us, the defense seems to have gradually improved each year since the Nolan era began. Likewise, the run defense has been better than the pass defense every year. Why? Well, the reasons are coaching and personnel of course.

In 2004, the defense was that bad because of (a) a no-name DC (Willy Robinson), (b) the oft-injured Ahmed Plummer and the oft-burned Mike Rumph as starting CBs, and (c) Julian Peterson's Achilles injury. So in a sense, the only place to go was up in 2005. The hiring of Mike Nolan, a defense-minded head coach, helped the inevitable ascension as well. In 2006, the pass defense improved considerably thanks to the acquisition of Walt Harris and Mark Roman. Although they filled out their current secondary with Nate Clements and Michael Lewis in 2007, it was actually the run defense that improved thanks to the additions of Patrick Willis and Aubrayo Franklin. Finally, in 2008, acquiring the disruptive Justin Smith, combined with the "Big Sub" focus under Nolan, and the more prominent roles of Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson, Ray McDonald, and Roderick Green under Singletary, led to a further improvement in pass defense.

One last thing I'll say about the graph is that its upper limit is 0%. As was the case with the offense, the defense has been below average throughout the Nolan era.

After the jump, I'll break down the 49ers' defense DVOA, and evaluate specific players based on directional pass and run defense. I'll also review the special teams stats...

GROWING PAINS

Below is a graph tracking the 49ers' defense DVOA over the course of their 16 games:

Returning to what I said in the intro, it turns out that Nolan's hybrid and Big Sub defenses weren't actually that much of an impediment, if at all, to defensive success . Indeed, the only 3 above average games for the Niner defense in 2008 (vs. DET, vs. NE, @ NYG) occurred while Nolan was the head coach. In fact, I think it's pretty ironic that the 2^nd-best defensive performance of the season turned out to be a game that was the final nail in Nolan's coffin. I guess those JTO red zone picks, and all-around offensive ineptitude, didn't help Nolan's cause. Far be it from me, though, to blame Mike Martz or suggest that the offense sucked.

The 2^nd part of conventional wisdom was also correct. It does seem that Singletary's simplification of the defense, through an exclusive 3-4 identity and a reduction in Big Sub, helped get the defense back on track after a couple of weeks of adjustment. Indeed, when you combine this graph with its offensive counterpart in Part 2, the evidence seems clear that there was an overall adjustment period when Singletary took over. Perhaps that's why he kept saying, "Just keep watching," as they kept losing those first few weeks.

More evidence of the idea that Nolan's defense wasn't as bad as it seemed comes from the following table:

Season Half	Defense DVOA	Rank	Pass DVOA	Rank	Rush DVOA	Rank
Weeks 1-9	1.7%	15	3.6%	12	-0.1%	16
Weeks 10-17	16.1%	25	26.5%	27	2.3%	16

Supplementing the stats in the previous graph, the defense seems to have been considerably better under Nolan than it was under Singletary. Of course, we have to take into account two things here. First, Week 10, which is included in Singletary's stats, was the "Leonard Weaver contract push" game vs. SEA, for which the new head coach only had a few days to prepare. Second, as I alluded to above, Weeks 10-17 also included that Singletary adjustment period. Nevertheless, the stats in this table are hard to argue with.

BEND BUT DON'T BREAK...SOMETIMES

Below is a table showing the 2008 49ers' defense DVOA in each of 5 field zones:

Field Zone	Defense DVOA	Rank
OPP 1-19	-12.3%	11
OPP 20-39	15.6%	24
OPP 40 - SF 40	14.1%	23
SF 39 - SF 20	0.7%	13
SF 1-19	7.2%	20
SF 1-10	13.5%	19

These stats seem to give us an evaluation of the Niners' bend-but-don't-break defensive philosophy. Under normal drive starting conditions (i.e., OPP 20-39), the defense allowed other teams to warp zone across midfield. Inside the SF 40, however, the defense clamped down, albeit with mixed results. They were in the top half of the league from the SF 39-20, and in the 3^rd quartile if opponents entered the red zone.

Here's some more detail about what happened once opponents entered the SF red zone:

Red Zone Play	Defense DVOA	Rank
Pass	-3.3%	18
Rush	15.2%	23

At first glance, it's obvious that rush defense was the main culprit in the Niners' red zone mediocrity. However, looking at this in more detail, there appears to be a relationship between the pass vs. rush numbers in this table and the red zone vs. goal-to-go numbers in the previous table. Specifically, because opponents are more likely to run the ball inside the 10, the impact of a bad rush defense DVOA was magnified, leading to a higher overall defensive goal-to-go DVOA. Similarly, an increased likelihood of opponent passes from the SF 20-11 magnified the impact of good pass defense DVOA on red zone performance overall.

#5: FINISH

Below is a table showing the 2008 49ers' defense DVOA by quarter and half:

Period	Defense DVOA	Rank
1st Quarter	2.8%	17
2nd Quarter	28.7%	30
3rd Quarter	12.1%	23
4th Quarter/OT	-10.4%	9

1st Half	16.5%	26
2nd Half	0.8%	11

Late & Close	-5.5%	7

Two main conclusions can be drawn from this table. First, we've identified which units were the culprits for the 49ers overall ineptitude in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters. Looking back at the total DVOA stats in Part 1, most of the 2^nd quarter total (-32.5%, 30^th) was the defense's fault, whereas most of the 3^rd quarter total (-31.6%, 28^th) was the offense's fault. Looking back at the 49ers' schedule, this makes sense. In games vs. ARI, @ NO, vs. NE, @ DAL, @ STL, and vs. WAS, the Niners' defense turned a lead at the end of the 1^st quarter into a tie or deficit at halftime. The second conclusion is that the Niners' defense did their part when it came to the 5^th factor in Singletary's Formula for Success, finishing: They were top 10 in both 4^th quarter DVOA and late/close DVOA. Again, this makes sense. Looking at the schedule, the defense gave up fewer than seven 4^th-quarter points 9 times, 5 of which came in their final 6 games under Singletary. In fact, they had a 5-game streak (Weeks 12-16) in which they allowed fewer than 7 points during the 4^th quarter of each game.

WORSE WHEN WINNING?

Below is a table showing the 2008 49ers' defense DVOA by score gap:

Score Gap	Defense DVOA	Rank
Losing > 7	6.4%	22
Tie/Losing < 7	8.3%	20
Winning < 7	11.5%	17
Winning > 7	8.4%	16

Overall, the stats show that the Niners' defense performed pretty much the same whether they were winning or losing. However, if you compare the DVOAs and rankings instead of the DVOAs themselves, the conclusion becomes a little more nuanced. According to DVOA, the Niners' defense was, in fact, worse when winning. However, if you look at their standing amongst the 32 NFL teams, they were actually in the top half of the league in defense DVOA when winning.

What's going on here? Basically, this discrepancy occurred because the average NFL defense is more efficient when it's behind than when it's ahead. When you take the stats out of it, this makes perfect sense because opposing offenses tend to dial down their aggressiveness while ahead. This relates to the Niners' stats in the following way. The 49ers were actually worse than most other NFL defenses while losing, despite the fact that they were better as a team while losing. Analogously, the 49ers were actually better than most of the other NFL defenses while winning, despite the fact that they were worse as a team while winning (Aside: That sentence went through about 10 iterations before I came up with what I thought was the least confusing way to articulate the point. I'm still not sure I succeeded. If not, let me know and I'll take another stab in the comments section.). All in all, though, I'll take the conservative route and just conclude that there wasn't much of a meaningful difference on defense between being ahead and being behind.

HOME, SWEET HOME

Below is a table showing the 2008 49ers' defense DVOA by game location:

Venue	Defense DVOA	Rank
Home	6.0%	22
Road	11.8%	17

This table is a lot like the last one. Overall, the 49ers' defense played twice as poorly on the road as they did at home. However, once again, the better DVOA is associated with the worse ranking because the average NFL defense is more efficient at home than on the road. I guess the moral of the story is this: The defense needs to improve both at home and on the road. But in trying to assign blame for the 49ers' overall road woes, you'd have to fault the offense (-23.6% road DVOA, 32^nd) more than the defense.

A GAME OF 36 INCHES

Below is a table showing the 2008 49ers' defense DVOA under different down and distance situations:

Distance	1st Down	Rank	2nd Down	Rank	3rd/4th Down	Rank
1-3 Yds	--	--	21.4%	25	5.2%	20
4-6 Yds	--	--	33.7%	27	-34.0%	3
7+ Yds	--	--	-6.5%	6	84.7%	30
Total	2.5%	19	11.4%	19	16.1%	22

For the 2008 49ers' defense, it really was a game of inches. To be exact, it was a game of about 36 inches. They were 40.2% more efficient on 2^nd and long than they were on 2^nd and mid, whereas they were 118.7% less efficient on 3^rd and long than they were on 3^rd and mid. To be honest, this one's hard to explain. The only thing I can think of (as of right now) is a problem with their nickel and/or dime packages. The reason I say this is because, when faced with 2^nd and 4-6 yards, opposing offenses are still likely to run the ball a decent percentage of the time, and therefore, the Niners' defense is less likely to be in nickel or dime. The opposite seems true on 3^rd and long. The opposing offense is almost always going to pass, so the Niners are almost always going to be in a pass defense with extra DBs. Feel free to comment with your own thoughts on this though.

In at least one respect, the following table showing offense DVOA by type of play supports my hypothesis:

Play	1st Down	Rank	2nd Down	Rank	3rd/4th Down	Rank
Pass	13.2%	17	12.7%	17	22.8%	25
Rush	-9.0%	15	10.0%	25	4.5%	14

The way I see it, the 49ers' pass defense was considerably worse on 3^rd down than its run defense, thereby inflating the 3^rd and long stats. In contrast, the 49ers run and pass defenses were equally bad on 2^nd down, thereby combining to produce a bad 2^nd and mid stat. I'm not sure about this 2^nd part, but it's all I can figure at the moment.

THE PLAYER'S CLUB - DEFENSIVE FRONT 7

Obviously, due to changes in personnel, positioning, and play design, the defensive line is harder to evaluate using ALY (and directional ALY) than is the offensive line. For this reason, the preferred interpretation for defensive ALY is actually the adjusted yards per carry allowed by the defensive front 7. Despite these situational changes, the general tendency is for certain members of the front 7 to be in on all downs (e.g., Willis), certain members to only be in on running downs (e.g., Lawson and Spikes), and certain members to have designated responsibilities (e.g., Franklin two-gapping, and Willis finding the ball carrier). Therefore, using ALY is not an altogether futile exercise. At the very least, it's better than using the NFL's stats, which don't account for opponents or game situations.

Here are the 49ers' front 7 stats for 2008:

Front 7	Statistic	Rank
ALY	4.12	12
YPC	3.89	10
Power Success	69.6%	21
10+ Yds	13.7%	9
Stuffed	22.2%	22
ASR	5.1%	26

As I presented earlier, the 49ers' run defense was just about average in efficiency, and ranked 18^th among the 32 teams. The stats in this table seem to suggest that, not surprisingly, their overall run defending performance was mostly attributable to the front 7: Their ALY was 12^th-best in the league, and they allowed the 9^th-fewest percentage of yards beyond the first 10 yards of a run. The front 7 still had serious weaknesses though. They were in the bottom half of the league in both power running defense and the percentage of opponent carries that they stopped for negative yardage. Most concerning, though, was their ASR. It's probably not news to you that the Niners lack a pass rush. It probably is news to you that their ASR was worse than their actual sack rate (5.2%), meaning that their sacks in 2008 were easier than the league average in terms of opponent, down, and distance.

In terms of directional running performance, below is a diagram showing how well the front 7 executed, and what percentage of running plays were called against them, in each direction:

Supporting the opinions of others, Franklin had a good year stopping runs up the middle. Well, let me rephrase. Franklin had a good year eating up blockers so that Willis could stop runs up the middle. In addition, these stats show why Manny Lawson, when healthy, plays primarily on run downs: He's pretty good in run support. Justin Smith's performance is a little difficult to judge because he spent half of the year bouncing around between RDE and LDE. Although, Maiocco did point out that his high motor and aggressiveness have a tendency to take him out of plays from time to time. Either way, opponents' runs behind tackle, regardless of direction, met little resistance from the Niners' DEs. Finally, it looks like Parys Haralson needs to improve his run-stopping skills. Taken together, then, the 49ers could use some improvement at DE, and perhaps a run-stopping LOLB to let Haralson focus on sacking the QB.

THE PLAYER'S CLUB - DEFENSIVE BACK 7 (OR 8)

The last set of stats I'll present about the defense concern their performance against an opponent's receivers, whether they are WRs, TEs, or RBs. The same situational limitations of ALY for evaluating the front 7 apply with respect to using DVOA to evaluate DBs: Personnel, positioning, and play design are not the same on every play. Nevertheless, considering that DVOA is the best stat currently available to the public for these purposes, and that I've attempted to accurately display the 49ers' nickel and dime personnel and positioning, it remains a worthwhile endeavor.

Most of the time in nickel, the Niners brought Tarell Brown in to replace Manny Lawson, and moved Walt Harris inside to cover the slot receiver. Most of the time in dime (that's a rhyme...wait...that rhymes too), the Niners used Donald Strickland - or Dashon Goldson, when healthy - as a 3^rd safety in place of Takeo Spikes. Otherwise, the rest of the main pass defense positions stayed the same a majority of the time. Below is a diagram displaying the relevant stats:

These stats lead to a couple of interesting conclusions. First, Nate Clements sure did get a lot of passes thrown his way for a so-called "shutdown corner." Second, depending on whether the Niners are in their base or nickel defense, they did a better job covering the opponent's #2 WR than Nate Clements did covering the #1. Third, either Harris needs to be moved out of the slot in nickel, or Mark Roman needs to do a better job helping down the field (See David Martin TD @ MIA). Take your pick. Fourth, I wonder if the fact that opponents attempted a disproportionate number of passes to RBs was a byproduct of the 49ers' bend-but-don't-break pass defense philosophy. Fifth, the LBs did a good job covering all those passes intended for RBs. Finally, Michael Lewis was mediocre in pass coverage against TEs.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The rest of this article will focus on the special teams. You can find the detailed methods used to calculate special teams DVOA here. Just as an introduction, I'll give you the short(er) version. Basically, unlike offense and defense DVOA, for which they define efficiency as gaining or preventing an adequate number of yards towards a first down on a given play (after adjusting for opponent and game situation), Football Outsiders defines special teams efficiency as providing a net advantage to the team via starting field position and FG distance. Their method is based on the fact that each yard line is associated with a different league-wide likelihood of scoring points on a drive or FG attempt. This is pretty intuitive: It's much easier for the average team to score on a drive starting at the opponent's 40 than it is starting at their own 10, and it's much easier for the average kicker to make a 30-yard FG than it is to make a 50-yard FG

So, special teams DVOA (a) converts a team's kick distances (for FGs and extra points) and kick-related changes in field position (for kickoff coverage, punt coverage, kick returns, and punt returns) into expected points, (b) subtracts the team's adjusted expected points from its opponent's expected points to get a net expected points value, and (c) adjusts that net expected points value to account for weather and altitude. Obviously, a special teams unit wants to give their team a net advantage in expected points, so positive DVOA numbers mean higher efficiency.

Below is a table showing the 49ers' special teams performance this past season:

Special Teams Category	Statistic	Rank
DVOA	4.6%	3
Weighted DVOA	5.5%	3
DVOA Variance	1.0%	13
FG/XP Pts	4.45	9
Net Kickoff Pts	9.63	3
Net Punting Pts	5.57	8
Kick Return Pts	6.04	10
Punt Return Pts	1.39	10

As you can see, the Niners' special teams was one of the best in the league. Although all 5 special teams were top 10 in the league, kickoff coverage stood out, giving the 49ers an advantage of almost 10 likely points over their opponents.

I have three other things to say here. First, the acquisition of Allen Rossum was more beneficial for kick returns than it was for punt returns. Although I'm not presenting a graph here, net punt return points with Michael "Beer Man" Lewis at punt returner last year was nearly 3 times better (3.46), whereas net kick return points last year was almost 8 points worse (-1.48). Second, because I'm not going to display the special teams 2004-2008 graph - believe me, it's pretty boring - trust me when I tell you the 49ers' special teams have been on a steady upward trajectory for 5 seasons now. Finally, taken together, these stats mean that the kickoff and punt teams (coverage and return) gave the Niners a 3-TD advantage in field position over their opponents. If only the offense and defense could have taken advantage of that -wait for it - advantage, this team "coulda been a contender!" Well, at least a playoff contender!

The final thing I'll present is the special teams' week-to-week performance in 2008. Here's the graph:

As you can see, in contrast to the offense and defense, the 49ers' special teams had 11 above-average games this past season. The highlight, for sure, was the Monday Night game @ ARI, in which Rossum returned the opening kickoff for a TD. In terms of the trendline, it was an up and down year - mostly up - with great performance in the middle of the season bookended by average or lousy performance at the beginning and end of the season.

BOTTOM LINE

To recap, we can draw the following conclusions from the defense and special teams stats I've presented here:

•The best word to describe the 49ers' defense this season is "mediocre." They were in the middle of the pack overall, against the run, and against the pass.

•Over the past 5 seasons, defensive acquisitions have had a demonstrable effect on performance.

•Nolan's "hybrid +Big Sub" defense and Singletary's "3-4 ‘til I die" defense were equally efficient when you take into account the adjustment period immediately after Singletary was promoted.

•Consistent with a bend-but-don't-break philosophy, the 49ers' pass defense, although mediocre overall, stiffened in the red zone. The opposite was true of the run defense.

•The Niner defense finished games well, especially under Singletary.

•Unlike the Niner offense, the Niner defense didn't fall apart on the road.

•The Niner defense was great on 2^nd and long, but horrific on 3^rd and long.

•Although good overall against the run, the Niners' front 7 needs to improve strength-wise because they gave up too many first downs on 3^rd and short, and didn't stop enough plays behind the line of scrimmage.

•The Niners need to improve on the edge because their DEs and OLBs (except Lawson) had a hard time stopping the run, and their pass rush was horrible.

•Opponents don't treat Nate Clements like a shutdown CB. Perhaps the 49ers also shouldn't.

•Both starting safeties seem expendable given their relative mediocrity in pass coverage this season.

•Tarell Brown looks like he has a future in the NFL.

•The 49ers are set on special teams. However, Allen Rossum was a much better kick returner than punt returner this season.

OK...that's it for the season review. Hope you enjoyed it, or at least learned something about this past season from it. Stay tuned the next couple of weeks for a stat-based look at available free agents who play positions that the 49ers need to upgrade.

**DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

What's the most important factor for the 49ers being successful on defense in 2009?

Sticking with the 3-4; No more "hybrid"

40 votes

Acquiring an established pass rusher

199 votes

Upgrading at LDE

22 votes

Upgrading at FS

45 votes

Upgrading at #2 CB

3 votes

Having a full offseason under Singletary/Manusky

31 votes

No upgrades necessary; Just need time for the young guys to emerge

6 votes

Other (Specify in comments)

1 votes

347 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: I'm starved for more news, honestly..

Ninjames — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:48:26 -0000

So we've finally got some news yesterday/today though I'm sure you've already read it on this site. If not Roderick Green made a few Niners headlines after being arrested and there's a few general articles to look at. Other than that not much but its all good reading and I suggest if you're starving for NIners news you give it all a read. Got a good article about wide receivers and that's what's mainly on my mind right now--what should we do at WR? I'm liking the position we're in now but another addition couldn't hurt, we need people to respect the passing game so they stop stacking the box on Gore and what not--we cant have an effective running game if they don't worry about our receivers.

Make sure you took a look at the 10 questions that Maiocco and Fooch both answered concerning the 49ers and the offseason. (PressDemocrat.com and NinersNation.com)

I'm sure you've already heard, but of course I need to link to it--Roderick Green was arrested recently. (SFGate.com)

And a general article from Kevin Lynch--basically touching on a few recent happenings and asking a few questions. He describes the OC hiring as "un-sexy" which is so awesome, to be honest. (SFGate.com)

A look at potential draft choice DE Aaron Maybin. (MVN.com)

Aaaand a look at the safety position this offseason. (Examiner.com)

Barrows takes a few looks at the state of our WR position. I really feel like we could be a lot worse off. (SacBee.com)

The 49ers are holding a first annual State of the Franchise conference. (49ers.com)

Aaaand another edition of McCloughan's Mailbag. (49ers.com)

We likely have the edge in cap space over the Cards after they make a few of their re-signings. (RealFootball365.com)

Outside Linebackers: Long look back, brief look forward

Fooch — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:34:09 -0000

Earlier in the week we took a look at the 49ers wide receivers in 2008 and what that meant for 2009. Today we'll take a look at the 49ers outside linebackers. I originally planned on combining all the linebackers together, but in the 3-4 I feel it's more beneficial to consider the OLBs separately.

As with our wide receivers (and actually most of the positions), this felt like a tale of two seasons: The Nolan half and the Singletary half. The Nolan half involved a convoluted system of switching back and forth between the 3-4 and 4-3, virtually on a whim. Had that system continued, we probably would have to review Justin Smith's performance both as a defensive end AND as an outside linebacker. This was the system that led to Manny Lawson actually playing one game entirely on special teams.

Once Coach Singletary took, that all changed as the defense became a straight 3-4 squad. This change resulted in significantly more playing time for Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson. The problem created by Nolan's initial decisions was reducing the body of work we have to look at in regards to the OLBs, with Haralson and Lawson being the two primary examples.

Parys Haralson: Haralson finished the season with more sacks than any 49er since Bryant Young also had 8 in 2005. While he has made contributions in other areas, his primary ability rests in his pass-rushing skills. This was his third season with the team and there had always been talk of "potential" with Haralson. After a virtually non-existent rookie season, he 2.5 sacks in 2007 before busting out this season.

Haralson is shorter and stouter than Manny Lawson and there has been some question about his speed. It seems like he figured something out this year, although part of that probably had to do with coming in behind a guy like Justin Smith sometimes. Since this is only one year of big production one might argue it could very well be a flash in the pan. While that is certainly possible, I also think it says something a bout Haralson that given the clear lack of a pass rush elsewhere, he was still able to make things happen and get his numbers.

Manny Lawson: After missing almost all of 2007, Lawson's 2008 campaign could probably best be described as inconsistent. He had some big performances, and then would disappear the next week. This is probably primarily due to his continued recovery from knee surgery and so somewhat expected. Throw in Mike Nolan's sometimes bizarre use of him and it was hard for him to get going at times.

Lawson is not a pass rushing OLB in the traditional sense. He certainly can use his athleticism to get to the QB, but his real talent lies in run stopping and dropping back in coverage, along the lines of Julian Peterson. Singletary has done a better job of utilizing Lawson and I think next season could be big for Lawson considering it usually takes a full season before a player is completely recovered from knee surgery.

Roderick Green: Green is a pass rushing specialist and while he certainly made some big sacks for the 49ers, he was not as consistent a threat as I would have liked. I'd imagine part of the reason he ended up in San Francisco was because of his connection to Nolan in Baltimore. Green is an unrestricted free agent and I'd be pretty surprised if the 49ers brought him back. I think you know what you're getting with Green and resources would be better spent on bringing in someone new, whether it be through the draft or free agency.

Tully Banta-Cain: TBC has more or less become an outside linebacker in name only. He spends a majority of his time on special teams, although he seems to do a fairly solid job in his role. Depending on which resource you consider, TBC is scheduled to hit the cap for around $3.5 million, including a base salary of $2,475,000 (the NFLPA reports a base salary of $1,275,000). Since he's a free agent following next season, I'd imagine the 49ers might just keep him around, even if it's mostly as a special teams player. We'll see how Singletary/McCloughan handles it.

One area considered a big need for the 49ers is in the pass rush department. The general idea is that the 49ers need defensive or outside linebacker help in the form of a big-time pass rusher. In looking at the 49ers depth chart, I really wonder if that need has to be filled at outside linebacker. We know what Parys Haralson did when he got playing time this season. And while Manny Lawson isn't a traditional pass rusher, he brings plenty of skills to the OLB position.

One interesting point is that Parys Haralson is entering the final season of his rookie contract. In early 2008 the 49ers approached his agent about working on an extension but it did not go much further than that. I'd say that was well-played by Haralson given his 2008 production. If he has another impressive year without getting a new deal, he could very well be gone. If you're the 49ers, do you start looking for a replacement now? Free agency doesn't provide a lot of linebacker options, so that leaves the draft. If the team can't work out a deal with Haralson before the draft, maybe it's worth spending a high pick on the position. Thoughts?

I've got a list of potential 3-4 outside linebackers after the jump. The one problem is that many college players that become NFL OLBs are currently listed as defensive ends. So this is probably not the most complete list (that and it's only 8 guys right now).

And as for the poll, consider it in terms of the entire season. If you think the 49ers will bring in a free agent or a high draft pick to work in to become a starter, clarify your vote in the comments.

EDITOR'S NOTE 10:55PM: If you vote note, feel free to let us know what you think will actually happen at the OLB position in 2009.

I took this list from Draft Tek's positional rankings. Normally I'd use ESPN, but their list of outside linebackers does not differentiate between 3-4 and 4-3 so it's not 100% useful yet.

1. Brian Orakpo, Texas
2. Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
3. Everette Brown, Florida State
4. Clint Sintim, Virginia
5. Clay Matthews, USC
6. Cody Brown, Connecticut
7. Orion Martin, Virginia Tech
8. Tim Jamison, Michigan

Poll

Assuming the defense runs strictly a 3-4 will Parys Haralson and Manny Lawson be the primary starting outside linebackers?

Yes

99 votes

No

26 votes

125 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: Season over yet? How about now?

Ninjames — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 10:53:19 -0000

As we get closer and close to the end of our season, I'm getting more and more... anxious. I just want it finalized, I want to see it declared that Singletary is returning next season as our head coach. I want to see if he has a plan, I want to see if we keep DeShaun Foster and if Takeo Spikes stays, etc. There's so much going on I almost couldn't care less about the Redskins game, all I want out of that is solid play and hopefully a Thomas Clayton sighting. Gore's 22 yards would be nice as well but I don't want the guy hurt. I cant wait to start reading and covering this offseason. It should be interesting to say the least. That being said, enjoy your links.

So what do you think we need to address in the draft first and foremost? I agree with this article in that we definitely need an impact receiver to free up some room for Gore next season. Also to note is the link within this link to the thread on the official forums about trading Frank Gore... I think its a mistake, a big one. (RealFootball365.com)

Again, I ask you, how far are we from the playoffs? Are we really so far? I don't think so. (PressDemocrat.com)

Despite what he may show on the outside, Isaac Bruce definitely knew exactly what he needed to reach the two milestones he hit on Sunday. (Scout.com)

Here's a look at what the 49er's free agents will look like. I don't see us keeping many of them. I'll rally for Keasey, Rossum, and Spikes all day though. (SacBee.com)

Here's this week's The Wrap Up with Eric Davis from the official website. (49ers.com)

In his blog, Brian Jennings talks about meeting Mike Singletary as a child and being inspired. (YardBarker.com)

Here's a look at the "top" head coaching candidates. (ContraCostaTimes.com)

This seems like one of the few times firing a head coach mid-season was the right thing to do. Other than you know, firing him at the beginning of the season. (MercuryNews.com)

Tune into 'A Day in the Life: Joe Staley.' Should be ten kinds of awesome all at once. (MercuryNews.com)

And we take a look at what could have been this season. (BleacherReport.com)

Ah, good ol' Deadspin talks about the mustaches. Good times. (Deadspin.com)

Sooo, the Dolphins signed Derek Smith and waived WR Chris Hannon. I'm sorry, but I'm just about positive they signed the guy solely to quiz him on us. There's no doubt in my mind. (Sun-Sentinel.com)

Vernon Davis' brother, Vontae Davis is the first underclassmen to declare for the draft. I really like this guy and I can honestly see us trying to get him if possible. He's got attitude problems, and if we keep Singletary then... Well, I see no problems there. (3rdStringSafety.com)

Golden Nuggets: So pumped... so pumped.

Ninjames — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 09:37:52 -0000

Ahem.. CALLED IT. Anyway. I may not have called the score right, but we won by ten and I got that much right. Either way we won and played well and I'm excited for that. I'm cautiously excited, I actually believe every case of excitement for the Niners these days are cautiously approached because lets face it--we've all been let down a lot over the years from this team. But perhaps.. just maybe.. we're getting something together. I can only hope. I'll shutup now. Here's your links, enjoy.

We'll start with some review, in the form of a play by play if you need any refreshing. (SFGate.com)

And a nice post-game article also from Kevin Lynch of Niner Insider. (SFGate.com)

Here's another play by play, this one from Maiocco. (PressDemocrat.com)

Gore is sore--but he's happy for the win. He says he's gonna come back and play. I hope so. (SFGate.com)

Always interesting (and in this case satisfying) to check out what the opposition is saying. Here's a post-game article from our resident Jets blog. (GangGreenNation.com)

Shaun Hill "kicked Brett Favre's butt!" Yeah. That's how we roll. (SFGate.com)

Its very clear Singletary wants the job as head coach come 2009; its also very clear he's not about to ask for it. That's admirable, really. (SFGate.com)

Here's a nice post-game article full of quotes, points, etc. Mostly positive. 49ers dominate Jets. (SFGate.com)

The 49ers finally play good against a good team--of note in this article is the praise for Heitman. He handled Jenkins so well, earning the respect given from Martz previously. (PressDemocrat.com)

Joe Staley got himself a touchdown. Good stuff, that spike. (SacBee.com)

Shaun Hill and Mike Singletary's chances for 2009 are looking better and better. (SacBee.com)

This guy doesn't seem to like Singletary for next season. He seems to be the only one, I guess. I don't agree with his points at all, especially the bit about passion. (SacBee.com)

Shaun Hill outplays Favre, we win. End of story. (MVN.com)

More recaps from the opposition. These make me way too happy. (TheJetsBlog.com)

Some points from the game, in the form of thumbs up or down from Scout.com. (Scout.com)

Here's a very complete postgame article from Chrissy Mauck over at the official website. Matchups, quotes, memorable plays.. its got it all. (49ers.com)

49ers cool the Jets. Too bad we're not in the AFC East, huh? (49ers.com)

The Cardinals have won the division. /wrist (49ers.com)

Here's some rapid notes from the game from a Jets blog. (JetsAndMets.com)

Random, scattered Niner thoughts from this blog. (3rdStringSafety.com)

Here's more postgame articles from Jets blogs. Sorry but I love these, absolutely love them. With this post going up early I'm probably missing a few 3AM/6AM links but I'll definitely be on at 3 sharp to search. (JetsGab.com)

Could the Chargers steal away Mike Singletary? What about the Eagles? The Vikings? They may need him. But they better not. I fear I might weep if they do. (MercuryNews.com)

That's all for now, be back at 3 AM to update if there's anything, enjoy, go Niners, etc etc.

49ers-Eagles: Thursday Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 03:36:05 -0000

Two days of practice down and we've got some more injury updates:

49ers
Did not Participate in Practice
LB Roderick Green - Stomach Virus
OT Jonas Jennings - Shoulder
LB Manny Lawson - Hamstring

Limited Participation in Practice
SS Michael Lewis - Elbow

Eagles
Did not Participate in Practice
G Shawn Andrews - Back
DE Juqua Parker - Knee
S J.R. Reed - Hamstring/Ankle
RB Brian Westbrook - Rib/Ankle
WR Reggie Brown - Groin

Full Participation in Practice
DE Victor Abiamiri - Wrist
WR Kevin Curtis - Hernia
S Quintin Demps - Knee
DE Darren Howard - Abdomen
RB Dan Klecko - Hand
QB Donovan McNabb - Chest
TE L.J. Smith - Back

The only significant changes are in Michael Lewis and Reggie Brown. Lewis managed some practice today, which is a good sign that he'll play on Sunday. Given the struggles of the secondary I'd prefer to not lose any extra bodies. Keith Lewis is a great special teams player, but he doesn't quite bring what Michael Lewis does.

As for Reggie Brown, he's been a solid receiving option the last two weeks. On the one hand, a groin injury is always a tough one to bounce back from. On the other hand, the Eagles offensive coordinator (our very own Marty Mornhinweg) said Brown was "better than he was," whatever that means. If Mornhingweg is right I'd imagine Brown will show up as questionable tomorrow. Otherwise, Brown will probably be down as doubtful.

49ers-Eagles: Wednesday Injury Report

Fooch — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:15:47 -0000

Practice is done for the day for both the 49ers and Eagles and we've got the list of DNPs and limited participation folks:

49ers
Did not Participate in Practice
RB Frank Gore - Coach's decision
LB Roderick Green - Stomach Virus
CB Walt Harris - Coach's decision
OT Jonas Jennings - Shoulder
LB Manny Lawson - Hamstring
SS Michael Lewis - Elbow

Eagles
Did not Participate in Practice
G Shawn Andrews - Back
DE Juqua Parker - Knee
S J.R. Reed - Hamstring/Ankle
RB Brian Westbrook - Rib/Ankle

Limited Participation in Practice
WR Reggie Brown - Groin

While Rotoworld isn't my bible (see the Houshmanzadeh rumors), on general injury info they're usually pretty reliable. Kevin Curtis has been out all year and is not really expected back full time until after their Week 7 bye. However, Rotoworld did mention he might play in a limited role this weekend. The 49ers will have plenty else to worry about aside from Curtis.

Frank Gore and Walt Harris continue their weekly tradition of no practice on Wednesdays. Michael Lewis is expected to be available on Sunday and this is more precautionary. Other than that, nothing too surprising.

Nate Clements vs. Randy Moss: What football is all about

Fooch — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 10:00:05 -0000

The first four weeks of the season have seen the 49ers secondary squaring off against everybody from Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams and Larry Fitzgerald to Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne and Terrance Copper. In spite of last week's performance, the 49ers secondary remains a strength in my opinion. With that in mind I thought we'd take a look at the biggest matchup of week, along with some other important matchups.

Matchup of the Week
Nate Clements vs. Randy Moss: As interesting as I think Walt Harris and Wes Welker is, the matchup everybody will be watching is 6-4 super-freak Randy Moss vs. 6-0 Nate "Lockdown" Clements. Clements has been money well spent and prior to Brady going down, Randy Moss slipped into the rejuvenation machine. However, both the principals face some problems this week.

Nate Clements will be hoping and praying the pass rush steps up this week. As good as he is, if even a guy like Matt Cassel gets enough time, eventually he'll probably find Moss. Maybe it won't happen early on, but eventually Clements will get worn down. On the other side of the ball, aside from the opening week, Matt Cassel has struggled to develop a rapport with Randy Moss. Raiders and VIkings fans are probably wondering when he'll repeat his behavior in those cities.

Other matchups
Patriots pass rush vs. 49ers offensive line: The Patriots pass rush managed next to nothing two weeks ago versus the Dolphins and witnessed Chad Pennington absolutely pick them apart. It was helped in great part by a great running game, but either way Pennington was 17/20 for 226 yards. Given the number of sacks JTO has suffered thus far, a full game on his feet would really be quite nice.

49ers pass rush vs. Patriots offensive line: One thing I've noticed is that Ray McDonald has been especially quiet up to this point. He's made plays but he hasn't been the impact guy I thought he would be at the beginning of the season. Any thoughts on what has kept him from blowing up for the 49ers? Aside from McDonald, I'd expect we'll see a bit of Tully Banta-Cain for the first time. He had some good performances in the preseason garbage time so who knows what we can expect. I do know that Parys Haralson and Roderick Green need to bring the speed off the outside and get Cassel frazzled as early as possible. If they can get Cassel hearing footsteps early it will make their job all the easier.

49ers receivers vs. Patriots secondary: One interesting advantage might be the injury of third corner Lewis Hobbs Sanders who has missed all of practice this week. If they're short on cornerbacks, a healthy 49ers wide receiver corp could potentially do some damage. Arnaz Battle is coming off probably the best game of his career and a chance to face a rookie like Terrence Wheatley.

49ers running game vs. interior of Patriots defense: As Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams showed last week, this defense can be run upon. I'm sure Belichick has the defense prepped for Frank Gore, but Gore brings enough talent to overcome such gameplans if he gets enough touches. The Patriots interior includes the likes of Vince Wilfork at nose tackle, Tedy Bruschi and Jerod Mayo at inside linebacker and hard-hitting Rodney Harrison at strong safety. I include Harrison because of the support he can bring in the run game. Aside from some ugly blocking against the Seahawks, the offensive line has opened up just enough space for Frank Gore to squeeze out some sizeable runs. A solid running game is absolutely, positively essential to protecting JTO.