SB Nation - Shaun Hill

Singletary’s Formula for Success through 12 Games

Florida Danny — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:04:43 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Seahawks game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

Total Ball Security
Execute
Dominate the Trenches
Create Good Field Position
Finish

The first thing I'll say is, "Don't worry. This isn't another equation-heavy measurement statistics article." OK. With that out of the way - and most of you still around - I'll repeat that, given the large sample sizes at this point in the season, don't expect too much fluctuation in any of the Formula-related stats I present today. Instead, it's most important to focus on the changes in these stats as compared to last week.

In today's post, I'll first present updated Adjusted BS Rates - along with their components - for each NFL team. Then, as I did last week, I'll use one gigantic table to present all of the stats that measure the other 4 ingredients of Singletary's Formula for Success. Of course, as has been the case of late, I'll provide some brief commentary along the way

After the jump, a pile of BS followed by a heaping helping of formula ingredients...

ADJUSTED BS RATES

Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 12 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):

	Team	Adj BS Rate	Last Wk	BS Rate	Rk	FR	Rk	IR	Rk	Adj IR	Rk
1	MIN	98.70%	1	98.78%	1	1.24%	2	1.19%	1	1.43%	3
2	NE	98.61%	2	98.35%	3	1.41%	3	2.11%	8	1.34%	2
3	MIA	98.21%	3	97.75%	14	1.99%	12	2.86%	18	1.32%	1
4	SD	98.18%	6	98.39%	2	1.62%	4	1.60%	3	2.24%	7
5	IND	98.15%	5	98.30%	4	1.20%	1	2.60%	13	3.02%	19
6	ATL	98.05%	7	97.77%	11	1.73%	6	3.24%	24	2.38%	8
7	PHI	98.01%	11	98.08%	7	1.80%	8	2.15%	9	2.39%	9
8	DAL	97.98%	13	97.92%	9	2.27%	21	1.69%	5	1.53%	4
9	DEN	97.95%	4	98.21%	5	1.66%	5	2.07%	7	2.88%	15
10	NO	97.90%	12	97.73%	15	2.14%	17	2.55%	12	2.01%	6
11	GB	97.90%	8	98.18%	6	1.90%	10	1.65%	4	2.54%	10
12	BAL	97.83%	9	97.94%	8	1.75%	7	2.68%	15	3.04%	20
13	HOU	97.78%	10	97.75%	13	1.80%	9	3.15%	23	3.07%	21
14	JAC	97.71%	14	97.82%	10	2.47%	25	1.54%	2	1.90%	5
15	STL	97.68%	15	97.70%	16	2.00%	13	2.91%	19	2.99%	18
16	CIN	97.60%	17	97.77%	12	2.03%	15	2.74%	17	3.32%	23
17	NYG	97.57%	16	97.65%	19	2.18%	19	2.73%	16	2.96%	17
18	SF	97.55%	18	97.70%	17	2.32%	22	2.27%	10	2.71%	11
19	CLE	97.47%	23	97.32%	22	2.09%	16	3.97%	26	3.49%	24
20	PIT	97.44%	19	97.67%	18	2.00%	14	3.02%	21	3.75%	25
21	ARI	97.35%	22	97.54%	20	2.38%	23	2.61%	14	3.16%	22
22	TEN	97.33%	21	97.30%	23	2.59%	27	2.95%	20	2.85%	14
23	BUF	97.32%	20	97.15%	25	2.17%	18	4.41%	27	3.86%	27
24	WAS	97.21%	25	97.10%	26	2.82%	29	3.07%	22	2.72%	12
25	SEA	97.15%	26	97.47%	21	2.83%	30	1.96%	6	2.88%	16
26	KC	97.12%	24	97.28%	24	2.91%	32	2.30%	11	2.81%	13
27	DET	96.98%	27	96.94%	28	1.91%	11	5.30%	30	5.18%	31
28	NYJ	96.98%	31	96.63%	31	2.46%	24	5.96%	32	4.62%	29
29	CAR	96.97%	29	96.78%	29	2.23%	20	5.57%	31	4.91%	30
30	TB	96.95%	28	96.48%	32	2.69%	28	5.21%	29	3.77%	26
31	OAK	96.78%	32	96.95%	27	2.83%	31	3.55%	25	4.11%	28
32	CHI	96.56%	30	96.72%	30	2.54%	26	4.72%	28	5.18%	32

If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.

One thing I forgot to mention last week is that the 49ers actually have the best Adjusted BS Rate among the 4 NFC West teams. So, if Total Ball Security is one of the mechanisms via which Mike Singletary envisions his team winning the division (at some point in my lifetime), then they're well on their way when it comes to avoiding fumbles and interceptions.

Of course, you wouldn't exactly expect that given the 49ers' fumbling woes against the Seahawks and the Cardinals stellar play of late. However, the reason why they remained at #18 this week should be pretty apparent. Namely, their 2 fumbles against the Seahawks, although costly during that particular game, constituted only 2 of their 76 fumbling opportunities in Week 13 (2.63%); and, more importantly, they represented only 2 of their 777 total fumbling opportunities through 12 games (0.26%). Essentially, those 2 fumbles didn't affect the overall stats that much because of the large sample size.

Nevertheless, although it may not have affected their Adjusted BS Rate very much, their fumble-prone (and interception-averse) performance against SEA did affect their component rankings in two ways. First, they dropped from 21st to 22nd in FR because their 2.63% FR on Sunday was still higher than their 2.28% FR going into Sunday's game. Second, their IRs moved up considerably in the rankings: their IR ranking rose from #13 to #10 and their Adjusted IR ranking rose from #17 to #11.

Why the big leap in IRs? Well, it's pretty simple, Alex Smith threw 0 INTs in 45 passes against SEA, and 0.00% is as good as it gets with respect to IR. What's interesting to me about the 49ers being the 10th- or 11th-best team in terms of avoiding INTs -and this should not shock you whatsoever - is that their decrease in IR has coincided perfectly with their increase in the use of shotgun, as well as their increase in passing frequency. Here's a useful table to illustrate this point:

Time Frame	% Shotgun	Passes per Game	INTs	IR
Through 9 Games	37.1%	30.9	8	2.88%
Through 10 Games	40.0%	31.1	9	2.89%
Through 11 Games	41.5%	32.0	9	2.56%
Through 12 Games	43.3%	33.1	9	2.27%

Why is this interesting to me? Well, in football, it's pretty much the conventional wisdom that more passing leads to a higher IR. Likewise, the conventional wisdom among anti-shotgun Niner fans is that more shotgun leads to a higher IR. From this table, we can see that, since SF implemented their shotgun OFF for the first time against GB, their IR has clearly defied the conventional wisdom; it's actually getting better! Indeed, over the past 3 games, Alex Smith has thrown only 1 INT in 119 passes, for an astonishingly microscopic IR of 0.84%. What's even more amazing about Smith's nearly "total" ball security is that the last 3 shotgun- and passing-heavy games have come against teams that have an average defensive IR of 3.51% (average ranking = 12th). Ho hum, just another meaningless piece of evidence that shotgun-haters are going to ignore when they argue that the Niners need to go back to running the ball or the West Coast Offense or whatever it is this week. I look forward to hearing your denials in the comments section.

As for the rest of the NFL, the biggest leapers this week were the Eagles and Cowboys, who ascended into the top 8 at the expense of the Broncos and Packers. In terms of the relationship between Adjusted BS Rate and winning, the top 8 teams are a combined 58-38, while the bottom 8 teams are a combined 31-65. A few other things I'll point out before moving on are

The Dolphins are #3 in Adjusted BS Rate despite being less than 2 full seasons removed from a 1-15 record. Meanwhile, the Niners are still only #18 despite being in a "rebuilding mode" for the past 6 years. Why isn't the Dolphins record better than 6-6 this season? Looking at the difference between their Adjusted and Unadjusted IR, you see that they've had a governor on their engine called "the toughest IR strength of schedule (SOS) in the NFL."
The same thing can be said for the other seemingly underachieving team in the top 8: The Atlanta Falcons. Yes, passes by Matt Ryan (and now Chris Redman) have been intercepted rather frequently. However, these INTs have come against the 4th-toughest IR schedule in the league.
On the flip side, DEN is in the top 8 when it comes to Unadjusted IR, but they're only a middle-of-the-road IR team when we take their 3rd-easiest IR SOS into account. So, in my mind, their 8-4 record is somewhat of a mirage insofar as it's a byproduct of ball security in the passing game.

THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS

Now that I have a useful stat for measuring Total Ball Security, I can add it to the following table, which displays the Niners stats according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):

		This Week		Last Week		Change
Formula Ingredient	Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Total Ball Security	Adj BS Rate	97.55%	18	97.53%	18	-0.02%	0
Total Ball Security	BS Rate	97.70%	17	97.63%	19	-0.07%	+2
Total Ball Security	FR	2.32%	22	2.28%	21	-0.04%	-1
Total Ball Security	IR	2.27%	10	2.56%	13	+0.29%	+3
Total Ball Security	Adj IR	2.71%	11	2.86%	17	+0.15%	+6
Execute	Total	0.6%	17	-1.6%	20	+1.0%	+3
Execute	OFF	-7.1%	21	-10.0%	21	+2.9%	0
Execute	DEF	-7.2%	5	-7.6%	7	+0.4%	+2
Execute	ST	0.5%	16	0.8%	15	+0.3%	-1
Execute	1Q OFF	-31.9%	30	-39.3%	31	+7.4%	+1
Execute	1Q DEF	-6.8%	11	-2.7%	13	+4.1%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	OL ALY	3.23	32	3.21	32	+0.02	0
Dominate the Trenches	OL ASR	8.6%	27	9.3%	29	+0.7%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ALY	3.65	8	3.65	7	0.00	-1
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ASR	7.1%	7	6.7%	13	+0.4%	+6
Create Great Field Position	FG/XP Pts	1.7	14	1.1	15	+0.6	+1
Create Great Field Position	KO Pts	3.9	12	3.2	15	+0.7	+3
Create Great Field Position	KR Pts	-1.9	17	-1.9	18	0.0	+1
Create Great Field Position	P Pts	12.0	2	11.0	2	+1.0	0
Create Great Field Position	PR Pts	-13.5	32	-10.1	31	-3.4	-1
Create Great Field Position	Own 1-20 OFF	-32.2%	30	-35.2%	30	+3.0%	0
Create Great Field Position	Opp 1-20 DEF	19.5%	24	22.2%	24	+2.7%	0
Finish	4Q OFF	6.4%	16	3.2%	18	+3.2%	+2
Finish	4Q DEF	4.5%	15	2.8%	14	-1.7%	-1
Finish	Late/Close OFF	-24.8%	28	-27.7%	31	+2.9%	+3
Finish	Late/Close DEF	-11.0%	7	-13.1%	9	-2.1%	+2

Aside from the aforementioned improvement in Adjusted IR, the Niners' biggest Formula-related statistical change this week came in defensive front 7 (DF7) ASR: the 49ers' DF7 is now in the top 8 of the NFL when it comes to sacking the QB. I never thought I'd write that sentence; that's for sure.

A few other changes that are interesting...First, every offensive DVOA in this table showed improvement over last week. For reasons that I've repeated numerous times on Niners Nation, the most important offensive improvement -in my mind - is the massive jump in 1st-Quarter DVOA. Hot starts - especially on the road - are what good teams display, so, if this stat continues to improve over the final 4 games, it bodes well for next season.

Second, thanks to the Terrible Twosome of Arnaz Battle and Brandon Jones - not to be confused with the Tainted Twosome of VD and Crabs - the Niners have now lost 13.5 points-worth of field position on punt returns. A lot of fans bemoan the 49ers' awful "return teams," but in actuality it's only the punt return team that's truly awful. The kickoff return unit is below average, for sure, but they've cost the Niners about 12 fewer points-worth of field position than the punt return unit. So when you're complaining about the "return teams," focus your ire on the guys who catch, run, and block when the opponent punts the ball.

Finally, only 1 of the 5 Formula ingredients showed improvement across the board: Execute. That's obviously a good thing.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:

Total Ball Security - Amazingly, the shotgun OFF has turned Smith into a ball-secure QB. Unfortunately, the Niners as a whole are still mediocre in this ingredient because Frank Gore and Arnaz Battle continue to be ball-insecure 49ers.
Execute - They're still average, but improving across the board.
Dominate in the Trenches - They're still average overall, but the DF7 is dominating in pass-rushing situations.
Create Great Field Position - They're still average. If it weren't for the pathetic punt return unit, they'd be well above average.
Finish - They're still average, but at least the OFF is catching up to the DEF.

Coming up later today or tomorrow... a very special article about Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and the shotgun OFF.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Whether or not you agree with more shotgun, are you surprised that the 49ers' offensive interception rate has gone down considerably since they unveiled their new shotgun offense?

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:32 -0000

vs.

While this game lost a lot of its luster with the Sunday's 49ers loss and Cardinals win, it still should provide an entertaining football experience. As folks were trying to develop a legit 49ers-Seahawks rivalry, the 49ers quietly developed a rivalry with the Arizona Cardinals. Even though there have been numerous sweeps of the series, the games usually are highly competitive, if not going down close to the wire. Even if the 49ers are all but eliminated from playoff contention, this game provides a chance for the team to take a step forward in execution and build towards 2010.

The 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals in what will be the 37th meeting between the two teams, with San Francisco holding a 20-16 advantage in the series. In the season opener earlier this year, the 49ers defeated the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium, 20-16.

San Francisco enters the upcoming game following a 20-17 defeat in Seattle. In that game, QB Alex Smith connected on 27 of 45 passes for a career-high 310 yards, which included a 33-yard touchdown pass to TE Vernon Davis for his 10th receiving touchdown on the year (tied for 1st in NFL and a new single-season record among 49ers TE’s all-time) and a 22-yard touchdown reception by WR Josh Morgan to mark his third score of the season. It marked the second week in a row that the 49ers defense had posted at least 5 sacks in a game, having had 6 sacks against the Jaguars before notching 5 sacks against the Seahawks.

The 49ers have won 7 of their past 9 home games and have a 38-24 overall record on Monday Night Football.

49ers-Cardinals Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers defensive coordinator Greg Manusky was a teammate of Cardinals assistant head coach/OL coach Russ Grimm with the Washington Redskins from 1988-91. Manusky played linebacker, while Grimm played offensive guard.
• 49ers TE coach Pete Hoener has had coaching stints with the Cardinals in both St. Louis (1985-86) and Arizona (2001-03).
• 49ers WR coach Jerry Sullivan spent 3 seasons as the Cardinals offensive coordinator from 2001-03.
• 49ers special teams coordinator Al Everest coached in the same capacity for the Cardinals from 1996-99.
• Cardinals LB coach Billy Davis was the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2005-06.

FORMER CARDINALS - 49ers K Joe Nedney spent three seasons with the Cardinals from 1997-99 ... 49ers G Tony Wragge was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cardinals in 2002. Wragge spent 2 seasons (2002-03) with Arizona.

PANTHER PRIDE - 49ers CB Shawntae Spencer and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald were teammates at the Univ. of Pittsburgh from 2000-03.

FORMER 49ERS - Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor spent the first 4 years of his career with the 49ers after being drafted in the 3rd round (89th overall) of the 1999 NFL Draft.

HAIL THE VICTORS - 49ers G David Baas played at Michigan alongside Cardinals DT Gabe Watson, DT Alan Branch and WR Steve Breaston.

CARDINALS NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS - Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington played 2 seasons at Cal.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 36
Series Record: 49ers lead series 20-16
49ers Home Record vs. Cardinals: 49ers Lead Series 11-8
First Meeting: 11/15/51, Cardinals win, 27-21, at San Francisco
Last Meeting: 9/13/09, 49ers win, 20-16, at Arizona
Current Streak: Won 1
Longest 49ers Win Streak: 5 (9/14/80-10/18/87 | 10/24/93-12/21/02)
Longest Cards Win Streak: 4 (10/6/74-12/2/79 | 10/2/05-12/24/06)
Most 49ers Points: 50 (12/7/03): 50-14, at San Francisco
Most Cardinals Points: 34 (Two Times): Last (10/6/74), 34-9 at SF
49ers Shutouts: None
Cardinals Shutouts: None

SAN FRANCISCO 20, ARIZONA 16
At Glendale, AZ, September 13, 2009

Head coach Mike Singletary delivered a very simple message to his team in advance of their season opening matchup against the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals … "Believe." His players did just that as they battled through a tremendously physical game highlighted by impressive defensive efforts from both squads. After being stymied on offense for more than 3 quarters, the 49ers embarked on a 15-play, 80-yd. drive that consumed 7:26 of clock time en route to a 3-yd., go-ahead TD pass from QB Shaun Hill to RB Frank Gore. On the drive, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye scrapped the run game that he had dialed up all afternoon and left the contest to Hill’s right arm. The QB responded going 9 of 13 for 72 yds. and the TD to Gore. On the series, Hill utilized his playmakers, including TE Vernon Davis who hauled in 4 passes for 35 yds.

The 49ers opened the scoring in the 1st quarter after All-Pro LB Patrick Willis intercepted a QB Kurt Warner pass to set his team up at the ARZ 36. Six plays later K Joe Nedney connected on a 37-yd. FG. Nedney later connected on a 50-yd. FG to give the Niners a 6-0 lead entering the 2nd stanza. The Cardinals finally got some offense going in the 2nd quarter as K Neil Rackers drilled a 44-yd. FG on their first possession. As the 49ers run game continued to struggle, Hill aired the ball out to All-Pro WR Isaac Bruce on a 50-yd. bomb, setting the offense up at the 6-yd. line. With a tired Arizona defense, the 49ers called on Gore the very next play. He hit pay dirt plunging through a massive hole into the endzone.

With the momentum in their favor, CB Nate Clements capitalized on another Warner mistake, as he hauled in his first interception of the year. Clements’ effort, and those of his defensive backfield mates, limited one of the game’s best WR tandems in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, to a combined 8 recepts. for 90 yds. and 1 TD. The 49ers were unable to capitalize on Clements’ pick, as Hill was sacked and forced to fumble on the next series. The Cardinals jumped on the opportunity, posting another Rackers’ FG this time from 29 yds. San Francisco left the field at the half with a 13-6 lead.

The Cardinals carried momentum into the 3rd quarter, and on their 2nd possession, Warner led his team on 69-yd scoring drive that resulted in a 5-yd. TD pass to Fitzgerald, knotting the score at 13. After a 49ers 3-n-out, Arizona again moved the ball to post points, a 43-yd. FG by Rackers just seconds into the 4th quarter, for the Cardinals final points of the game. The Niners would then embark on their game-winning drive and back it up with a defensive performance that paralyzed the Cardinals.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		CARDINALS (rank)
5-7 (t-2nd NFCW)	Record	8-4 (1st NFCW)
20.4 (19th)	Points per game	24.8 (9th)
285.4 (28th)	Total Offense	360.9 (10th)
91.3 (28th)	Rushing Offense	94.1 (26th)
194.2 (22nd)	Passing Offense	266.8 (5th)
28:55 (20th)	Possession Avg	30:41 (12th)
19.4 (t-10th)	Points allowed/gm	19.5 (12th)
346.4 (20th)	Total Defense	362.6 (24th)
95.8 (5th)	Rushing Defense	104.8 (12th)
250.6 (27th)	Passing Defense	257.8 (30th)
30 (t-7th)	Sacks	35 (3rd)
48.3 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	47.4 (3rd)
+1 (t-11th)	Turnover Differential	-3 (t-21st)

Mike Singletary 12/7 Press Conference Transcript

Fooch — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:04:26 -0000

Mike Singletary had his weekly press conference earlier today and, as promised, here is the transcript from said press conference. Not a whole lot of shocking information, but certainly always interesting to hear his thoughts on a wide range of topics.

One issue that will continue to stick out until next training camp is who will be the starting QB heading into training camp. Singletary basically says he won't ~~anoint~~ Smith the guy yet. Last year was a competition between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. Earlier today I mentioned how it was likely that Smith would be the guy heading into 2010. I'll stand by that statement for the foreseeable future, but I can understand the hesitance in naming the guy for 2010 when there are still 4 games to go. Singletary said:

"What we have seen so far is so far, so good. But I don't want to jump the gun. I don't want to say, ‘We found him and he is going to be the next great...' No, I don't want all of that. I just want to give him his due. I think he is working his tail off. I think the coaches are doing a heck of a job with him. I think he is using the tools that are around him. I think he is making really good decisions. Hopefully, that will just continue."

I know we've got folks clamoring for Nate Davis playing time, but in terms of starting time, they have to stick with Smith. The good news about the Arizona game is that it's now, before Arizona has clinched a playoff spot, so they'll clearly be battling. The next week they get a Philly team in an absolute dogfight for a playoff spot and further positioning. Neither team will be taking it easy on the 49ers as if it's Week 16 with nothing to gain. And then even the last two games against Detroit and St. Louis have some value. Can Alex Smith (and the offense in general) go in to a game with a bad team and take care of business. When the 49ers pounded the Rams earlier this year it was primarily because of the defense. We need to see the offense kick it up a gear against bad teams.

Other than that, there is plenty of discussion of the play-calling, the reverse, and of course the refs.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Press Conference - December 7, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On whether using RB Frank Gore so little gave the Seahawks an advantage:

"I think there were several advantages in this game for [Seattle coach] Jim Mora, but I won't even address those."

On how much the Seahawks defense dictated the 49ers plan:

"I think nothing out of the ordinary than any other team. If a team sends a particular personnel out on the field, offense or defense, you adjust. That's where you get your matchups. There was absolutely nothing that they were doing - the only problem, what they were doing on the offensive side of the ball is not giving us time. There is a certain amount of time that you - if they send someone out on the field, then, OK, you send them out on the field, you huddle and you go ahead and go from there. But, they weren't giving us time to get our personnel on the field. That's something that's an unfair advantage. You can't do that. We talked to the refs about it. But anyways, those are kind of some of the things that were happening in the game."

On whether the first timeout in the game was because of that:

"A little bit. It's just one of those things where some referees do a better job than others of handling that and making sure that you go over to the sideline and you tell them, ‘Hey, you have to allow them enough time to make sure that they have the appropriate personnel in the game.' Otherwise, everybody could do that and you're always mismatched, and you really can't do that in a game."

On the balance in the first half:

"I think I told you before, and I really do believe this, I want whatever we're winning with. I think if we have a certain package in the game and it's a better thought process to pass the ball rather than run the ball, then that's what we need to do. If it ends in us winning the game, that's what I want. I don't want to try and outsmart ourselves. I don't want to be looking at something where, ‘Let's see now. How many runs have we had? How many passes have we had?' We need to look at what's working. If they have a certain personnel out there on the field and it's better for us to attack it because of the matchups, then we need to throw the ball and take advantage of the matchups. Obviously, if we have our regular people in the game and they come out in nickel situation, we're going to run the ball every doggone down. But I just think you have to be smart about what are the matchups, and I think that dictated some of what we were doing, how many people were in the box? That sort of thing, and I think some plays were running plays at the beginning of the game, but because of what they had on the field, we audibled to a pass because it didn't make sense to run the play that we had. So, that's what was happening on some of those."

On whether it seems weird to fans that at the beginning of the year the team was running against eight-man fronts and now a seven-man front dictates the pass:

"Well, early in the season, we had a totally different situation. You go back and forth, run-pass, whatever. The bottom line is, did you win the game? Did you lose the game? And, I think that's what we need to be talking about. As far as how many times you ran the ball, how many times you threw the ball, you can play cat and mouse with that all year. Just understand that going into the game a balance is what you always want to look for, but at the same time, if your quarterback is given certain parameters - if they are in this, if we're in a two-backs, two-wide outs, one-tight end situation and they come out and they have a situation where it's more nickel, you know what? We want to run the ball because we want to take the shots every chance we get. But, I think they were more focused on the run in this game because of what happened last time. So, I think that made them more vulnerable against the pass. Whether Jim Mora said that not running the ball - I think running the ball maybe would have helped him a little bit more than, I thought, than passing the ball."

On whether QB Alex Smith can become the leader of the team:

"What we have seen so far is so far, so good. But I don't want to jump the gun. I don't want to say, ‘We found him and he is going to be the next great...' No, I don't want all of that. I just want to give him his due. I think he is working his tail off. I think the coaches are doing a heck of a job with him. I think he is using the tools that are around him. I think he is making really good decisions. Hopefully, that will just continue."

On where yesterday's game ranks in Smith's career:

"Obviously, he did a really good job. I thought he made some good changes. I thought he really made some good audibles. I thought he got the ball, for the most part, where he wanted to put it. What we did in last week's practice, some of the reads were exactly what he got in the game and he took advantage of those things. I think any time that you see that, it creates a very positive result."

On whether the team disappointed him:

"No, I won't say this team has disappointed me at all. Quite the opposite. To have the guys that we have, and to do what we do, and to unfortunately be in a situation where six games come down to you having a chance to win at the end and your guys are still fighting, I think that is a special group of guys. We just have to win. But, to say that these guys have disappointed me is far from the truth. Unfortunately, character does not show in numbers in the game. But I cannot tell you how proud I am of these guys. Do we have a lot of work to do? Trust me, you have eyes, we have a lot of work to do. Do we have a lot of great players on this team? We have some players that are really developing and will soon be great players once they learn how to focus, once they learn how capture the vision and understand what it is, once they learn the little things. What they think are secrets are not secrets, it is just a matter of confidence and consistency. No, I am far from being disappointed in this team."

On whether he is frustrated the team hasn't already figured the little things out:

"Frustrated is a great word, for lack of maybe other words. Frustration is a tremendous word to fill in the blank. You go out and you play a game like yesterday and you end up on the losing side, the only thing you tell your players is that we just have to stay together. We have to continue moving forward. The ground work from this, somehow, someway this will be a positive for us going forward, but right now it doesn't feel that way."

On whether there is still a unity of purpose in the locker room:

"There will always be a unity of purpose in our locker room."

On how much he second guesses his or his coaches' decisions in the game:

"I wouldn't say second guessing of myself is something I would do at all, in terms of what I know second guessing to mean. I don't second guess anything about myself. I don't second guess some of the decisions to go for it on fourth down. I don't second guess some of the challenging of the calls. I don't second guess any of those kinds of things. Some things happened yesterday, as far as the punt situation and miscommunication on that, that was just one of those things that happened. Frustrating, but it happened. Just miscommunication."

On what the miscommunication was:

"The miscommunication was - we worked on it in practice, therefore we are going to do it in the game and that was my fault for not articulating that. We might do it in the game, but we're not for sure going to do it in the game. That's my fault for not making that more plain."

On whether the call on the punt return was a reverse:

"Let me just put it this way. It was my fault. Whenever something like that happens it's my fault because the communication should have been better. Because we did it in practice that week, we were going to do it in the game and we did not hit on the same - we didn't touch on it the way we should have, to say we are definitely going to do that in the game."

On whether the weather or the way the game was going that in retrospect, he wouldn't have done the reverse:

"I think it's a situation in which you've got two players back there and the one player, [WR] Brandon Jones, is not really your normal guy to do that. So, maybe you don't want to have him doing that; just go ahead and let [WR] Arnaz [Battle] return punts. Let's just keep it simple going forward with that. We did practice it last week, so it showed up in the game."

On whether they went on the field knowing that they were going to execute the reverse:

"Just to clarify, it was bad communication and it was on my behalf. Nothing more than that. It's starts with me, that's me."

On whether he will be sending any tape into the league on some of the questionable calls the referees made:

"Every week we send a letter to the league about different calls that are made or not made in a game. Just to say this week, there will be several paragraphs that will be going to the league."

On whether there is one call he is particularly upset about:

"There were many."

On the non-call on TE Delanie Walker and whether it was talked about on the flight home:

"Let me say this before I go too far down this road, obviously there were bad calls made and I think in every game there are bad calls made. Yesterday, for me, there were just a few more than I had witnessed maybe since I've been in the league and I just want to make sure that our players, coaching staff, our fans, everybody involved with the 49ers, everybody that cares about the 49ers, I want them to understand that this is not about the referees. They didn't fumble the ball. They didn't throw interceptions. They didn't make bad plays, we did. So I don't want to put this on the referees. I certainly feel that some of those calls were questionable, but if we had done what we were supposed to do, we overcome that and we win the football game."

On why CB Keith Smith was inserted during the game:

"We just had a few guys getting a little tight in the legs and they had to put some receivers on the field to try and get some match ups. A few more receivers, four receivers and we just needed to match up. We just felt that he was a good match up and he really did a pretty decent job coming in and playing the limited amount of time that he did."

On who Keith Smith was substituting for in the secondary:

"Michael Lewis would come out."

On what happened on the team's last offensive drive:

"On our offensive drive, we just didn't make the plays it's as simple as that."

On whether or not he was okay with the calls:

"Once again, you look for better calls after the calls are made. If we make the plays, then we're not talking about the calls. I just wished they would've worked, but no I don't question the calls at all.'

On whether he feels comfortable with Jimmy Raye as his offensive coordinator:

"Absolutely, I think that Jimmy has adapted and adjusted. I think he's going 180, 360 anything that I've asked him to do he's been more than willing to do and I think that he's done a fine job. I think that Alex has adjusted to him well. I think that he and Alex are on the same page along with [QB coach] Mike Johnson. All of the guys are on the same page and I think that it looked that way yesterday. Alex is feeling as comfortably as he feels and I think that everybody's on the same page moving forward."

On how much of a role does quarterbacks coach Mike Johnson have in the team's game planning and is he being groomed by Jimmy Raye for an offensive coordinator position:

"I think that Mike Johnson and Jimmy Raye just continue to develop their relationship. There's a synergy there, a flow there and they spend a lot of time talking, a lot of time in conversation and Alex Smith is also part of some of that conversation in terms of basically asking him the questions as, ‘Are you comfortable with this? Do you like this? What about this?' And Alex is able to have some feedback. So, I think that it's been a work in progress, but I think that it's working very well."

On whether it is part of his long term plan to move Mike Johnson in as an offensive coordinator:

"You know what, I want to talk about the short term plan right now and stay focused on that before I talk about long term plans."

On the slim chances of making the playoffs:

"I think that by the time the last game rolls around they'll play their math game as if this one loses or this - I could care less about that. I think the only thing that we need to be focused on is that Arizona is coming up. I mean, hopefully we can gather the things that we need to gather amongst ourselves. Yesterday was a tough loss. I am not thinking that we might not be able to rally together and play a good game but, I want to win this game Monday night. I want people to see that the 49ers are a team that's out here in the west that really isn't the same team. Something is happening out here and hopefully we can show that on Monday."

On whether it's more frustrating to see the team not play smart or not play well:

"Yes, you could say that. Yes, when the opportunities are there for us to make plays and you don't make those plays, it's frustrating. It's frustrating for the players. It's frustrating for the coaches because you know that making a play makes a difference. But I think that the bottom line is that when you lose games, no matter how you lose them, it's frustrating."

Week 12 NFL Power Rankings and the 49ers

Fooch — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:00:22 -0000

The 49ers made a nice little jump from last week with the win over Jacksonville. I'm not sure what kind of respect a win over Seattle will get, but obviously we'll take it. Over at SB Nation, the 49ers came in 20th in the power rankings, the same ranking they had last week. Last week I voted them 20th and this week I bumped them up to 18th. I'm surprised they didn't climb even a little bit.

ESPN - #20 (20) - The Niners can improve their record to 4-0 in the division by completing sweep of Seahawks.

Arizona - #8 (5)
Seattle - #25 (25)
St. Louis - #31 (31)

The Big Lead - #19 (20) - Since taking over for the ineffective Shaun Hill, Alex Smith has been perfectly adequate, throwing for 11 TD’s against 7 INT’s and leading the Niners to, um, a 2-4 record. I guess it’s not the perfect comeback story.

Arizona - #9 (9)
Seattle - #23 (24)
St. Louis - #32 (29)

Fox Sports - #20 (22) - The Niners can sneak back into the playoff race if they take care of business against Seattle this week, plus with the Lions and Rams in Weeks 16 and 17 during the final postseason push.

Arizona - #11 (11)
Seattle - #25 (25)
St. Louis - #29 (29)

CBS Sports - #21 (23) - Alex Smith has five games to show he is their guy for the future. He looked comfortable against the Jaguars.

Arizona - #11 (8)
Seattle - #23 (25)
St. Louis - #30 (30)

Pro Football Talk (via NBCSports.com) - #18 (22) - If the Niners beat the Seahawks and the Cardinals lose to the Vikings, first place in the NFC West will be on the line in Week 14.

Arizona - #9 (6)
Seattle - #24 (28)
St. Louis - #30 (30)

NFL.com (Brandt) - #17 (23)

Arizona - #10 (6)
Seattle - #24 (24)
St. Louis - #30 (30)

NFL.com (Brooks) - #17 (21)

Arizona - #11 (8)
Seattle - #23 (26)
St. Louis - #31 (31)

NFL.com (Carucci) - #18 (22)

Arizona - #8 (6)
Seattle - #24 (23)
St. Louis - #30 (30)

WhatIfSports.com - #10 (15)

Arizona - #13 (9)
Seattle - #23 (26)
St. Louis - #27 (25)

Average 49ers Ranking: 17.78 (21.00)
Average Cardinals Ranking: 10.00 (7.38)
Average Seahawks Ranking: 23.78 (25.25)
Average Rams Ranking: 30.00 (29.50)

49ers-Seahawks: Seattle opens as 1 point favorite

Fooch — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:50:41 -0000

Since both Seattle and the 49ers played already, the folks at Scores and Odds already opened the line, and have installed the Seahawks as 1 point favorites. We'll have plenty more to discuss about this game, but it's not surprising the oddsmakers consider the 49ers slightly better. The Seahawks get their 3 points for being at home, so this knocks it down a notch. Honestly, I don't think I would be surprised by any result next Sunday. Sure I would be angry with certain results, but even though the Seahawks are struggling, the 49ers have been so inconsistent that I'm preparing myself for just about anything.

I thought it was also worth noting that the Cardinals-VIkings game is off the board at this point, and I'm guessing it's because of Kurt Warner's lingering concussion issue. Apparently he's planning on seeing an opthamologist this week about continued post-concussion symptoms. On the one hand I want to win this game, on the other hand I certainly hope Kurt Warner ends up ok. I'm thinking Warner can take a few weeks to get better. After all, concussions are a serious thing so we wouldn't want him on the field potentially aggravating the issue.

After the jump I've posted the transcript from Coach Singletary's Monday lunch press conference. We'll have plenty more of this to discuss in tomorrow's Mike Singletary Approval Rating.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Press Conference - November 30, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statements:

"Good morning. I'm very pleased with the victory yesterday, obviously. The guys played hard. The guys practiced hard all week. We had a good week's practice and we talked about playing like we practice, and that's kind of what we did on both sides of the ball. On the defensive side of the ball, I think, for the most part, we did a good job. I thought we went into the game thinking that we would attack a little bit more, particularly in the first half. We just have to continue to do a better job on the back end, tackling and the angles that we approach the tackles and the whole nine yards. We're doing a great job running to the ball and all of those things, but we just have to do a better job tackling overall. I think we've got to do a good job getting off the ball. There were a couple of times where we just didn't get off the ball for whatever reason. Maybe guys standing up versus getting down in the three-point or whatever, particularly a guy like [LB] Ahmad [Brooks]. He's normally standing up, and I think playing on third down, there were a couple of times if he had just gotten off. So, we'll do a better job there. He's only going to get better going forward.

I think, technique-wise, on defense, just a little thing that, going forward, in order to be successful we have to continue working on our technique across the board. Other than that, I think our defense did a good job. I think we went into the game and the No. 1 thing on our minds as we approached this game was to really stop the run. I think our guys did a great job of doing that. You talk about a team effort. I think the fact that our offense was able to create some first downs and move the chains and those sorts of things, that helped our defense stay off the field and get a little break here and there, and I think that went really a long way to helping us to be successful against the run.

On the offensive side of the ball, I thought our o-line, our o-line continues to work and get better. It's a work in progress, and I think on the right side, [RG] Chilo [Rachal] and [RT Adam] Snyder, for the most part did a better job passing off things, and that was very good to see. I think [LT] Barry Sims, and what he's been able to do to step in, there are a lot of guys, a lot of tackles - as a matter of fact, we were trying to look around and find some tackles that could come in in a back-up situation. And, a lot of backups don't want to come in and play. They want to come in and say, ‘Now, what do you expect of me?' Well, if something happens, I want you to play. ‘Well, really? How about I be your third tackle?' Here's Barry Sims, a guy who's been in the league a while, and he's excited about starting. He's a guy that's excited about playing. To have that, I really appreciate his effort and his work ethic, as well as the whole line. I think Chilo and Snyder, we talked about those guys a number of times, and that process of trying to work together and communicate amongst each other, I think they're really doing a good job. So, that's good to see.

[TE] Vernon [Davis], I think is having a tremendous year. He continues to get better. The thing I like about him most, I think the better he gets, the more he continues to stay after practice and work on his craft, both blocking and catching the ball. Of course, he had a couple of drops yesterday that, I guess for a regular tight end, you say, ‘Vernon, just do a better job.' But, I told him yesterday, I said, ‘The great tight ends catch those balls. It's a simple as that.' And, I know that's what he wants to be. He's having an outstanding year, but it's those things that I want to see him do a better job of is some of those other tight ends that are out in the league that are supposed to be great tight ends, Vernon is an outstanding tight end, and I just want every opportunity that he has. There should be no excuse for him not making the Pro Bowl this year because he is definitely, in my eyes, far and beyond any tight end in the league.

No. 15, [WR Michael] Crabtree, he's continuing to grow and mature. He dropped a touchdown yesterday. I think he's still asking himself what the heck happened. He has great hands and prides himself on plucking the ball out of the air, and I think he needs to join Vernon as well after practice and just continue to work on catching the ball. He does a good job, but sometimes he can get off track.

The other receiver, yesterday, I thought really did a great job. He did everything across the board, and that's Josh Morgan. Josh caught the ball well. He's blocking downfield well. He's doing a number of things. He's good with or without the ball. I'm really excited to see him continue to grow and mature.

[QB] Alex Smith, I thought, did a very nice job. I thought he took a big step yesterday. This is an offense that he talked about and envisioned and was able to step in and not just talk about it but produce, find receivers, have a blitzing linebacker or end coming right at him and still focus downfield and make a throw. He made some really nice throws yesterday. The one throw to Vernon on the fourth-and-one was outstanding. He didn't even break stride. Of course, the possible touchdown to Crabtree, that was an outstanding throw. So, he's really doing some things that are very nice to see.

I just feel like going forward, it's just a matter of continuing to look at our offense and look at what helps us win. I think there are a lot of philosophies out there. I'm hearing a lot about, well, the philosophy should be to throw the ball more. Sometimes, it's run the ball. The only thing I can say is this: My overall philosophy is to win. It's to win. I think that's the thing that I've said from the very beginning. I want to win. I think it's one thing when you look at this is what I'd like to do, but I think you have to look at what you have and go with that, make the most of it, and be excited about having it. To me, that's what I am. I talked many times about when we run the ball, I want to run the ball. I don't want to tip-toe. I don't want do any of those things. I want to hit people. I want to go forward and I want to run the ball. When we pass the ball, I want to do the same thing. I want to see our receivers going downfield and adding on, hitting somebody. Don't just look at the guy. Run with the ball. Go hit somebody. To me, that's what it's all about. That's football. So, that's not going to change. Any questions?"

On whether he is disappointed that it took this long to have such a complete performance:

"No, sometimes things take time. I know there are some coaches that have been waiting two or three years and it still has not happened. I think the thing I am thankful for here is all of the great coaches that we have and more so than anything else, the players. It is not just the talent, but it is the attitude of the players we have. These guys continue to go out week-in and week-out and believe. They are just working their tails off, they are doing whatever we ask them to do. Once again, the best thing about this week, or this past week, was for the first time since I have been here, there were a group of players, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, who stepped up. In the midst of all the different coordinators, there is a trust factor that has to be in place for a player to come forward and say, ‘You know what Coach, I think this would be a good idea. I think if we try this, that would be great. I think we would win.' That to me is very, very important because at the beginning of the week, one of the things we talked about was leadership. We talked about ownership and one really can't come without the other. The trust factor on the coaches' behalf, for those guys to step up early in the week and say, ‘This is what we feel. This is what we like.' For Alex Smith to echo those things, that lets you know something very exciting is on the verge because they believe. ‘If we can do this and that, we can win.' It's not: ‘If we could have a better offensive line. If we had a guy that could throw the ball, we could win. If we had another receiver, we could win.' No, we have it here. If we can do this, I think we can win. There is a big difference."

On how the players gave the coaches their input:

"During the Green Bay game, the guys got excited in the second half. Vernon came to the sideline and said, ‘Coach, I'm telling you, this is exciting. This is fun. I know we can do this. This is who we are.' Then, of course, we come in early last week and I had different guys in the office, just talking to them about what they felt. I talked to Alex Smith, even last weekend prior to the Green Bay game, and talked to him about what he was feeling and what he was thinking and told him how important it is to convey those thoughts to Jimmy Raye, not anyone else, not even me. Go to Jimmy Raye and sit down and say, "Jimmy, Coach, if I may, I'd like to express some ides, some thoughts.' I think those kind of things are extremely important and as the week went on, there was no town meeting, there was no rally, there was no boycott. The guys just basically said, ‘Coach, this is what we like. I think this would help.' The thing that I have been talking about all year is ownership. When you talk about ownership, that is a huge word, it comes with a lot of responsibility. If you are willing to ask for something, if you are willing to come up with a solution, then it is on you to make sure that you carry through with that. That's what leadership is. Leadership is not stepping up every week and saying, ‘Hey, I don't like this; I like that. We could do a better job if we did that.' That's not leadership. That's just a bunch of opinions. But, when you have players stepping up saying, ‘I believe if we did this, we would get the results that we want,' that's leadership. Now it's up to the coaches and the people in charge to make those decisions and go from there."

On the benefits that come from Smith talking to Raye directly:

"I have always believed all of my life that if someone has something to say, be man enough to convey it. Don't come to me and tell me, ‘Coach, I don't like this; I don't like that. Jimmy is doing this; he is doing that.' That's not going to fly. All that is going to do is get me upset because that concerns me that you are not man enough to do that. The most important thing to me is we have 53 men, not a bunch of boys, not a bunch of guys sitting in there waiting for something to happen. I went to Alex, he didn't really come to me. I went to him because I know what he has been through. Sitting down and just asking him, ‘What do you think about this? How do you feel about that?' To hear those ideas and to hear those thoughts, that is great. That is outstanding. Now we'll tell Jimmy. I didn't want him to tell anyone else, just go tell Jimmy because that relationship is critical. I don't want to go to Jimmy and tell Jimmy, pull a ‘I'm the head coach, you're the coordinator. Just do what I tell you to do.' That's too easy, that's easy to do. I want Alex to do the difficult thing, to go in there and take a risk and say, ‘This is what I like. Can we do this?' because that is where the relationship is. That is where the team gets better other than me pulling a power card. That's no good in the long run."

On the challenge of keeping good practices going from week to week:

"The practices have been good. It's just a matter of - there's a difference in when you go out and practice, it's not like you don't believe in something. Jimmy Raye has a great plan. Every coordinator, if you were to sit down and talk to every coordinator, defensively or offensively, he's going to have an array of plays that are just outstanding. You look back and you go ‘Wow, look at those plays, we could do this.' Okay, look over here and say, ‘Hmm, we can just eliminate all of that. This is what we have here and this is what we have to do.' That's the difficult part. So, I think when you look at our offense, Jimmy has just kind of been putting things here and you've got a tackle that goes down over here, maybe your best offensive lineman, he goes down and you've got another one over here and he's going to - he's down. Okay, now your running back is - and by the way you've got a quarterback change. Every time you turn around, I'm trying to put another piece up here. So that's where he's been. I tell Jimmy week-in and week-out, ‘I'm really proud of you for what you've been able to do. I'm proud you haven't run over me in the parking lot,' because I go to him and say, ‘Jimmy, I think we have to think this way,' and he's done nothing but doing what I've asked him to do. So, I think that's the interesting thing about this team. I think that's the best thing about this team. You have a lot of unselfish players, as well as coaches, where the bottom line is to win and that's why I'm excited about this team."

On whether there is time to get what he wanted to get done given everything that's gone on with the team:

"I told the players last week, it's all in front of us. Everything that we want is in front of us. I don't want our guys to start looking around, thinking about this and hoping that. We had a game yesterday that we had to win against a good football team. We go out there and we win the game and by the way, Arizona loses the game. That's pretty cool, but guess what, we've got to do the same thing next week and the week after that and the rest of the season. So forget about anything else. I think we have the time to get done what we need to get done."

On the difference in Chilo Rachal from September to now:

"Maturity, experience, working together, relationship. I mean it's huge when you talk to that guy and you trust that guy. It's one thing to say, ‘This guy does that and then you and I have to switch off,' and when that call is made you have to make sure that you have each other's back and I think that's a work in progress. That's why the offensive line anywhere in the league, if they are a good offensive line, chances are they are very close. When you see one, you are going to see all of them and I think our guys are just continuing to gel, continuing to spend time together and watch film together and do all of those things. Now, they also have to interact with the quarterback as well because they can do a great job here, but if that quarterback is stepping right where he's not supposed to, then they can do a great job, but they look awful because the quarterback just jumped right in the way. So, it's vitally important that all of those pieces come together when you have an offensive line and a quarterback that trust each other and that's really the biggest difference, time."

On why the defense has played so erratic:

"I think you start the season, you have a formula in place that you are going to win by. You have the running back in place and you have the quarterback in place. So, the defense knows that the way we are designed, our offense is going to eat up the clock because we are going to make first downs. So the offense goes out and we're not turning the ball over. That's the formula, we're not turning the ball over, there's not a whole lot of opportunity to turn the ball over. We are going to run the ball and we are going to let Shaun Hill dictate to us, how much we are going to throw the ball. So the defense over here, we are playing 45-50 plays, maybe 55. Now, you change that formula and you've got another quarterback in and those tackles that were there in place to allow you to run the ball the way you were trying to run it, now they're not there so you are changing it a bit, so now you have to throw the ball more or you're not getting as many first downs, you're not eating the clock the way you were, so now you are playing about 80-85 plays. So that's almost like playing two games. So, when you look at the defense, there's a lot that goes into it. You kind of get sloppy after awhile. We're not at that place yet. One day I hope to be in a place where we are a dominant defense where it doesn't matter what the offense does. They can go out there and throw an interception. We are going to go out there and one, two, three out. We may even get you the ball back. We're not at that place yet. So, when I'm talking about technically and all of those things, it's just a matter of guys, just like that offensive line playing together, the defense, they have to play together and have people in place and just be sound technically across the board."

On the Atlanta game and how the defense was still having problems even with Shaun Hill as the quarterback:

"That's when it became apparent to me that a change had to be made because we were not moving the ball - In order for me to talk about the defense, I have to talk about the offense because if I don't talk about the offense and just talk about the defense, solely, then I need to go to the games where - as far as tackling, we have to do a better job tackling, it's as simple as that. Not that it's horrible, but for where we want to go, it's not good enough. It's simply not good enough. Our angles to the ball, we've got a lot of guys flying to the ball, that's the one thing that we pride our defense on. Guys are relentless on going to the ball, but we have to take better angles of getting to the ball and we will do that because guys are working at it, we will do that."

On his evaluation of watching the development and maturation of the team during the season:

"I think that guys have matured a lot this season, I just think that we've been through a lot together and it seems like we've been through a lot early. The most important thing that we've done is we've continued to stay together and grow through it. Adversity only brings you together or it tears you apart and I think that it brought us together and when guys have to overcome things and still be in the fight, it builds a lot of character- that's the things about this team that's very exciting."

On the technique of S Dashon Goldson's playing style:

"Two things about that - the one thing that it tells you about Dashon is that he is a headhunter. The guy just wants to annihilate everything that's back there and the thing that I want to get him to do is that he's got great speed and he wants to hit everything that moves and it's just a matter of ‘okay Dashon, let's settle down a bit, gather yourself and make the play,' and he will do that. That's a great problem to have for a DB because most of them may run 4.3s or 4.4s but they are awfully slow getting to that tackle. That's another problem that you have with a guy that doesn't want to tackle and we don't have that issue."

On figuring out the team's offensive system while contending for the playoffs:

"The thing that's exciting to me is that I think in the next five weeks, really in the next couple of weeks, a lot of those questions will be answered. That's why it's so exciting to be 5-6 and still be in the hunt, still be in the chase. You are right. There are things that are out of our control, but the fact is that there are five games that remain and we still have a chance to do things that we want to accomplish. I believe that to the core of my being."

On being able to accomplish team goals without making it to the playoffs:

"I'll hold off on that one. Because coming into the season - I'll just hold off on that one, I'll answer that in a couple of weeks."

On whether T Barry Sims is one of the best five offensive linemen, even after the return of starting T Joe Staley:

"Ok, now you're talking about the left side of the line versus the right side of the line and I won't go there for right now but I will say that I think that [RT Adam] Snyder and [RG] Chilo [Rachal] on the right side are very solid right now and they're working together and they're getting things done. When Staley comes back, Staley is the left tackle and those will be our five best guys."

On whether he expects T Joe Staley back in time for the Monday Night Game vs. Arizona:

"Possibly, hopefully he'll be running this week, lifting, squatting, and doing some things like that. But hopefully he will be back."

On the status of CB Nate Clements return:

"Nate Clements, in all likely hood, would be back maybe the last game of the season."

On Player Injuries:

"One thing that I neglected to do - did I go over the injuries? [WR] Josh Morgan: Hip contusion, taking it day-to-day he should be fine. [DT] Kentwan Balmer: Right shoulder sublex, his shoulder went out, went back in and that's day-to-day. [LB] Parys Haralson: thumb contusion, I have no idea what the heck contusion is. It just sounds good, and [S] Curtis Taylor is having an MRI today: hip strain."

On elaborating on his coaching philosophy:

"If you look at the Pittsburgh Steelers from last year, you don't have to go very far to know that is a physical team. They're a running football team first, but they couldn't run the ball last year and if they couldn't run the ball and if everyone else was saying ‘well, they've got to be able to run the ball' or they started saying in maybe mid-season ‘if they can't run the ball well then they're not going to go to the super bowl.' Okay, they were in the Super Bowl and they didn't run the ball, so they got there. What was the philosophy: to win. Tony Dungy goes from Tampa Bay, where they were a run oriented team, Tony's philosophy is ‘guys look here, we're going to run the ball on offense, we're going to eat up the clock.' That's the same kind of thing that I believe here in my core because I'm a defensive guy. Tony goes to Indianapolis - does he take [QB] Peyton [Manning] and sit him down, bring somebody else in and get a better line and say we're going to be physical? No. you take one of the best quarterbacks of all time and leave him back there. If that's what you do, then that's what we're going to do. Tony wanted to win and I think that it's important - being stubborn can be a good thing, but I think most of the time it's a foolish thing. I do want to win, but it's not about me. It's not about what I think and feeling like I've got to go back on my words. The most important thing that I want for this team is to win. I want this team to win and to win big, so in order for me to do that the most important thing is that I'm always true to the personnel and we'll go from there."

49ers 20 - Jaguars 3: Hidden Nuggets

Fooch — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:28:23 -0000

I suppose that when you win games, the "hidden nuggets" are not quite so hidden. We remember the positives and forget some of the negatives. Nonetheless we'll keep people's spirits up with some of the positive minutiae from today's game. Also, after the jump we've got a whole assortment of post game press conference transcripts.

Vernon Davis
Not so surprisingly we're starting with The Disease. The tainted twosome (Davis and Crabtree) has been running wild lately, and Davis continues his breakout season. With his 3-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter, Davis tied the franchise-record for most touchdown receptions in a season by a tight end (9). With 6 catches on the day, Davis set a new single-season career-high with 57 receptions. His previous single-season high was 52 receptions in 2007.

Pass Rush
The defense certainly found it's groove against a Jaguars team that just couldn't get out of its own way today. The 49ers defense registered a season-high 6 sacks on the day, all in the second half. This marks only the second time since sacks became an official stat in 1982 that a 49ers defense notched 6 sacks in a half (vs. St. Louis on 9/8/96). Manny Lawson sacked and stripped David Garrard, with the fumble being scooped up by DT Justin Smith. Lawson now has 4.5 sacks on the season as well as 3 forced fumbles, which tied a franchise record for most forced fumbles in a season by a linebacker. Lawson became the first 49ers linebacker to register 3 forced fumbles in a single season since LB John Johnson and LB Larry Kelm each recorded 3 forced fumbles in 1993.

Additional random nuggets:

The 49ers offensive line did not allow the Jaguars defense to sack QB Alex Smith on any of his 41 attempts. This marks the first time that the 49ers did not allow a sack since November 10, 2008, at Arizona (QB Shaun Hill - 40 attempts).
QB Alex Smith set first half career-highs in attempts (29), completions (18), yards (169) and he tied a career-high for touchdowns in the first half with 2.
The 49ers were only flagged for 1 penalty on the day for 5 yards. It was the first time the 49ers only committed 1 penalty a game since December 2, 2001, vs. Buffalo. Only 4 other teams have committed only 1 penalty in a game this season, which is the fewest in the single game in the NFL this season.
RB Frank Gore extended his career-long streak of consecutive games with a touchdown to 5 with a 4-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter. He is the first 49er to score a touchdown in 5 consecutive games since WR Terrell Owens from November 4, 2001, through December 2, 2001.

Don't forget, after the jump we've got post-game press conference transcripts.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Game Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
FINAL

Opening Statement:

"First and foremost, I'm very thankful. I thank God for our guys, I really do. I'm very thankful for how they continue to fight. I was very excited about this game simply because of the way we prepared this week. The thing that we wanted to accomplish - the thing that we have not done all year - is put a collective win together, where the offense is doing the things that they have to do, taking time off the clock, the defense holding them, or trying to get turnovers, trying to get something. Special teams did their part. I think today collectively it was getting headed in the right direction in terms of the way we have to win. It has to be a total team effort. We can't have the defense playing lights-out and the offense not executing. We can't have the offense doing a good job and our defense giving up big plays. We just have to continue to work together and, I guess, really come up with the team effort. That's what we're really preaching right now. That's the thing that we've got to have - a team effort. So, very excited about what happened today and our guys are working."

On whether if his season-long goals are still within reach:

"You know what, for me, all I know is everything is in front of us and we have an opportunity to continue to week-in and week-out just to try and win football games, just to try and find our formula as we go offensively and get in a rhythm. The best thing that happened this week... The absolute best thing that happened this week was I saw leadership on the offensive side of the ball in terms of, ‘Coach, this is what I think would work. This is what I think we need. Can we do this? Can we do more spread? Can we put it on us, the receivers. Not that we're going to lose our minds and throw the ball every down, but can we do that direction?' To me, that's leadership. That conversation could go to the parking lot, it could go in the bathroom, it could go to their homes, but it came to us. It came to me. [Offensive coordinator] Jimmy [Raye] and I sat down and talked about it, the offensive staff, the entire team, about what we need to do going forward. I think we just have to find our balance each and every week depending on what that team does. I thought today... I thought the offense handled it well. I thought our offensive line did a good job blocking for [QB] Alex [Smith], giving him the time that he needed. I thought our receivers did a good job. We just have to continue to learn how to finish, just close it out, close the game out."

On whether the 49ers are a better passing team than a running team:

"I would say, right now, I would think as far as the run is concerned, I think we have more playmakers in the passing game. I think for the first time in a long time we have a lot of playmakers that we can throw the ball to, as well as [RB] Frank [Gore]. I think if we continue to do that, the run will still be there. Like I said, week-in and week-out we have to find a balance that works for us and not go out there and lose our mind and put it all on Alex and the receivers and say, ‘Let's go get it done.' So, I think we have to be smart and every week to figure out exactly what we have to do to win football games."

On who was showing leadership on offense:

"Well, [TE] Vernon [Davis] would be the number one guy, Alex a close second. Even the young kid, as much as I hate to say it, [WR Michael] Crabtree. I keep telling him he needs to be quiet, but he's getting there. Good kid. Those guys are leading the pack."

On RB Frank Gore's value as a pass-receiver:

"Well, I think Frank definitely has good hands and he can catch the ball and hopefully more times than not he can make that first guy miss and make extra yardage. I think you when have to look at a [WR Michael] Crabtree and [TE] Vernon Davis and [WR] Josh Morgan down the field, then it certainly opens up an opportunity for Frank coming out of the backfield in check-down situations. So, I just think it all works together and our offensive line continues to be a work in progress. But we will be able to run the ball. Before this season comes to an end, we will be able to run the ball and we're working on it. But right now, we're trying to open it up as much as we can right now so there's not an overload somewhere else and make it work."

On TE Vernon Davis tying TE Brent Jones' record today:

"Vernon has been spectacular all year. You know, today, last week, week before that. I mean, pick a week. Vernon continues to work his tail off. He continues to stay after practice and do all of the extra work. He's still an excellent blocker. The thing I like about it is he's not all of the sudden becoming a good go-to guy. He also continues to work on his craft in terms of blocking. And, to me, he's still the best blocking tight end in the league. So, I'm very excited about where he's going."

On QB Alex Smith's performance today:

"I thought he did a good job. I mean, obviously, there are some plays he'd like to take back. It's a work in progress, but I'm very proud of what he's been able to do and the decisions that he's been able to make. He and Jimmy Raye continue to work together, continue to build a relationship. Alex continues to let Jimmy know, ‘Hey, this is what works. This is not as good.' So, I'm excited about that, because the more that relationship develops, the better our offense is going to become. So, I'm excited about that."

On how players are developing on defense:

"You know what, I do [see that]. [LB] Manny [Lawson] stepped up. I hate he missed the one ball. He had it, he was running before he had it, obviously. But we have a few guys on defense that are playing well. [LB] Takeo [Spikes], it was good to see him back this week. He adds a lot to our defense, he really helps [LB Patrick Willis], great mentor, but he's the guy on that defense that really makes it go. So I'm very excited about what he was able to do. [CB] Dre' Bly I thought did a nice job today. You know, a lot of experience, he has a better grasp of our defense. Going forward, he adds a lot to what we're doing."

On whether the defenses' season-high sacks were due to the hard work this year:

"You know, it happened for a number of reasons. Yes, those guys upfront have been working their tails off. I think [defensive coordinator] Greg Manusky, [defensive line coach] Jim Tomsula, [pass rush specialist] Al Harris, everything that comes down to the pass rush and trying to figure out the protection and how to get guys to the quarterback. They just continue to work at it. I think they have a great system in place, breaking down protection. [LB] Ahmad Brooks, I think, you'll see more and more of, getting him in the mix. It was great to see Manny Lawson just come off the ball and explode and make the play he did in the fourth period. [LB] Parys Haralson has been applying pressure all year. But I'm excited about what we're able to do and the other thing that makes it great is our offense was able to chew up the clock so our guys were fresh when they were going out there and that makes all the difference in the world."

On whether [LB] Ahmad Brooks has replaced [LB] Manny Lawson as starting nickel-pass rusher:

"He did start today, but it's one of things where you wanted to see what he had as a starter and I think it'll go back and forth. They'll both play a lot at that position."

On how good the 49ers defense was today:

"Well, obviously when you have a team like Jacksonville and they have three points coming in here with a lot of confidence, I think the defense did very well today. Of course, going forward, we want to continue to keep the pressure on and do all of the little things we have to do to keep them from marching down the field, and clamping down later on. I thought the defensive plan was really good today."

On whether the line judge didn't see him when he was trying to call timeout:

"I was going to go all the way to the huddle. I tell them that, ‘Whatever I have to do...' I mean, I'm yelling on the sideline and they always say, ‘Mike, just come all the way and do whatever you got to do to get our attention.' So, I was sprinting out there. So, whatever I have to do to do that, I'll do it every time."

On the Arizona Cardinals loss:

"That is very exciting. One of the things that I don't want our team doing is looking at what Arizona is doing, but you can't help but... If a situation works out like that, that's fantastic. We just have to make sure that we earn the right to look at what they're doing and we've got to take care of business on our side."

CB Dre Bly
Post-Game Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On his first start with the 49ers:

"It felt good. The first half, I didn't get much action or get dirty. I wanted to get going, just get a tackle to get going. But for the most part, it was good. Defensively, we played well. We were flying around, pressuring the quarterback, forced turnovers-and that's the 49ers defense that everybody have seen. And that's the defense we expect to be. We played well."

On the difficulties of playing the Jaguars offense:

"They had long drives, and they were trying to keep us off-balance, going no-huddle and trying to catch us in different personnel defensively. And throwing screen plays, getting the ball into [Maurice] Jones-Drew's hands, those little bubble screens to the receivers-all those things were trying to keep us off-balance. But, when our backs were against the wall...this is what you want as a defense, when your backs are against the wall, don't fold. We were able to keep them out of the end zone when they got close, and unfortunately for them, they missed that field goal-fortunately for us. The key is, trying to keep them out of the end zone, we did, and giving up three points-that's reaching all defensive goals at the end of the day. I don't know what the yardage looked like, but we have to feel good about the points we let."

WR Michael Crabtree
Post-Game-Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On being able to spread the offense against Jacksonville:

"We really did the same plays that we did last week, we just did a good job of executing our plays and just came up big when it was time to make big plays."

On talking to WR Isaac Bruce on the sidelines when the offense was making adjustments:

"Isaac is like my big brother on the field so I'm always going to talk to him about anything, every play, and every release that I did. I'm always going to be talking to Bruce.

On what he felt he contributed to adding to the team leadership on the field today vs. Jacksonville:

"Just by playing fast at practice is something that I preached to my teammates in college, so I just carried it on and brought it up to the NFL and it's working."

On describing the team's intensity and execution in today's game:

"I think that all three sides of the ball played good today. That's what it takes for a team to win and we did a good job."

On whether he feels that the team is in the playoff hunt with a 5-6 record:

"We just have to take one game at a time. This next game we really need to be focusing on that and trying to win. One game at a time."

TE Vernon Davis
Post-Game Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On the performance of the offense:

"Our playmakers made plays-we got the ball in the hands of our playmakers. And we've got a lot of them-you could see [TE] Delanie Walker made some plays. And that's what it's all about. Green Bay, when we played them, I saw how they got the ball in their playmakers' hands. Everybody had some nice stats. That's what you need in order to win."

On if he senses a change in the offense:

"I am, I am. But I still think we have to run the ball-we have to keep Frank [Gore] involved, because he is one of our playmakers as well. Everything will be all right from there."

On the playoff picture:

"We have five regular season games left. Our goal is to win each and every game. We can only do that by practicing hard and staying together. It's not over, we're still in it. Anything can happen."

On going for it on fourth-and-1 play in the second quarter:

"Coach [Singletary] believes in us. We always talk about how good our offense is, and we believe in him. So, it's fourth-and-1, he called a play. Then we have to go make it."

LB Parys Haralson
Post-Game Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On whether that was the cleanest game the team has played:

"I don't know if that was the cleanest game, but I know that we won and that's all that matters to me."

On whether it was the most mistake-free game:

"I guess it was a mistake-free game. Like I said, we've emphasized that during the week, not beating ourselves. We always emphasize that, creating some turnovers and not turning the ball over, getting off the field on 3rd down even though they are making some plays on us and basically just keeping them out of the end zone on defense and the offense scored some points to win the game."

C Eric Heitmann
Post-Game-Quotes November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On starting fast offensively:

"We talked this week about being more explosive as an offensive unit. We did spread it out a little more and put the game in the hands of the playmakers and they did some amazing things for us today. They made some really big plays for us. As an offensive line, we knew we had to pass protect. We knew they were going to be coming, going to be blitzing and we had to give Alex [Smith] time to get the ball into the playmakers' hands. Everybody stepped up today. It really was a great win all the way around."

On holding a large lead at halftime:

"We had a nice cushion going into halftime, but when you come to halftime you know that any NFL game can turn. So for us, the score was 0-0. We knew we had to come out in the second half, be physical, run the clock, make some more plays. I think we did that. The defense played great, the special teams played great and it was a great win."

On the importance of not turning the ball over:

"You have to play mistake-free, flawless-execution football if you want to win in the NFL, and turnovers are huge. If we are going to be successful as an offense, you cannot turn the ball over and we did that today. That's one of the main reasons why we won this game."

QB Alex Smith
Post-Game Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On if he felt that today was his most complete game ever:

"I don't know about that. Probably the best I felt out there. I guess I don't know, specifically speaking, it was the best I felt out there. Seeing things, reacting to it, making good decisions, and being accurate."

On his role as a leader:

"Yeah there's always been open communication, especially with [Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye]. I've always said that from the beginning. I think, it's just one of those things, the more you play the better grasp you have on what we're doing. As the quarterback, there is a little more insight that you can put in to talking with Jimmy on what we're doing and what I like and things like that."

On specifically what he likes:

"I mean we're talking details here, of things, you know, things we have in the game plan. Whether or not they're up or down and what situation you may like them in or not, things like that."

On his confidence level from earlier in the year:

"I was confident that, and this the NFL, confident that my opportunity was going to come at some point. That's just the way it works. I didn't know when it was going to come, how it was going to happen, the circumstances of it. I was confident that, yeah, this is the NFL and at one point or another I'm probably going to step out on the field and help the team win. I didn't know when it was going to happen but the important thing is that you're constantly ready, constantly standing ready because you don't know when it's going to happen."

On the plays:

"I don't know. I don't know if it's my bad, I think it's the open communication. You know, it's not that I'm marching up there like, ‘hey this is how...' it doesn't happen like that. It's just open dialogue. You're talking, ‘I feel a little better about this, and maybe that.' It's not like I would walk up there with a list of things I don't want."

On whether not he told Raye he wanted to emphasize certain plays:

"No, not like that. It's always changing. You know? It's based on what we see on film and what we like. It's a fine line there. Ultimately it's my job to go out there and play well. The little input I can have, that's up to Jimmy whether or not he wants to."

On if he backed Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye into a room:

"No, I can sense that and that's not how it happened. I can definitely tell you."

On if he felt that his input was well received and used:

"Absolutely. No question. Jimmy's always had an open door and I think, like I said, it's a combination of the more I play the more we're growing as an offense I think that the more input you have. The more comfortable you feel talking to him about things. Whereas before you're just trying to get your job done."

On whether or not he's more confident than before:

"Absolutely."

On why and how he shows his newfound confidence:

"I just feel better about seeing what I see out there. Understanding it, trusting it and pulling the trigger. If that makes sense, you know. Reading and reacting. What are they doing? Seeing it and pulling the trigger. Before, when I was younger, sometimes you don't see things clear, don't trust it and hold on to the ball a little longer. You're tentative, things like that. I have a better grasp of seeing things, reacting to them and cutting loose."

On how this resembled his days in college:

"I'm getting there. I look back on college and it's different. I think you're headed there. That feeling you get when you're in the center of, people talk about things slowing down but, for me it's really understanding what you're seeing, trusting what you're seeing and cutting the ball loose. Not second guessing yourself, not hesitating and trusting what you see and letting it go."

On how he'd like to play the offense the rest of the season:

"I'm a pretty firm believer that there is no formula, like that to win. You got to do what it takes to win the game and each week is different. Next week we might come out of I formation and run the ball forty times to win the game. If that's what the defense is giving us and that's what we think we can expose them doing then we got to do that. We've got to do what it takes to win the game on offense and I don't think you can say, concretely ‘this is what you have to do every single week to win a game.' Every defense presents different problems and we have to find a way to attack them and expose them where we think we can."

On the cause and affect between your input and the game plan:

"I don't think so. No."

On what Jacksonville's defensive did that dictated this style of offense:

"We just thought - we felt like that. Their starting corner was out, [Rashean] Mathis was out. We knew they were banged up back there with some young guys, and we felt like we could do some good things throwing the ball. No doubt about it."

On what he thought about TE Vernon Davis' catch and run on fourth down and the play call:

"I love both of them, looking back. I love it. I think that's the mentality you start to grow into on offense too. The more comfortable as a unit we get, the more confident we are. We want it. Let's throw the ball on fourth-and-short. Let's get after it. Vernon made a great play, a great play on the sidelines. That's this offense growing and being more confident."

On whether he smiled when he received the game plan earlier this week knowing the offense was going to be more wide open:

"We talked about it, but you still don't always know what that's going to look like come game day, how things are going to unravel, how the play calls are going to come out and the circumstances you might be in. I thought we did a great job today, top to bottom. I thought [Offensive coordinator] Jimmy [Raye] called a great game. We did a lot of good things out there. I still think we left a lot out there. That's for us to take a look on film and improve on."

On how much stringing wins together counts with Arizona losing today:

"To be honest, it's not really about putting - it's about winning one game at a time. You can start getting ahead of yourself thinking about streaks and doing too much. We were thinking about beating Jacksonville. I think that singular focus, that's one of the reasons I think you saw success today. When you start looking down the line in this game, you're in trouble I think. So, now it's move on. We've got to learn from this game and we play Seattle. So, it's moving on from there."

On whether he feels either meek or humble:

"I don't feel meek. I think that's a good thing to be humble, in my opinion. I don't think that's a bad thing. I don't want to be cocky, if that makes sense. You want to be confident, step out on the field and play the game, feel good about what you're doing. But, I'm always going to be humble. I've been through too many ups and downs to understand what it takes to win games in this league, and it's not about you. A lot of things have to go right. There are a lot of pieces in place around you to have a chance at success. You learn that along the way."

On how it feels to be starting again:

"It's been great playing again, no doubt about it. To sit out the amount of football I did, you lose that feeling. You forget it. You miss it, what it's like to go out there and compete on game day, to work together all week as a team for one goal on Sunday to go out there and play well and to be tested every week. You miss that feeling, so it's great to be back out there."

On which was his best throw today:

"It's hard to say from where I was at."

On which throw he was most proud of:

"I don't know. It might not have even been a completion. I thought maybe the ball in the corner - I didn't get to see it very well - the ball in the corner to Michael Crabtree. I got it up on time and I thought I put it in a good place. At this point, it's hard to say."

On whether he was hit at all today:

"No idea. No idea, handful of times I guess."

On whether the players comfortable telling the coaches what they see during a game:

"I think it's a fine line there. Coach is a coach. Player is a player. That's a big deal. That's what it is. I think, this week, you maybe saw some guys go up there and voice their opinion, but in the end, we're not putting the game plan together. We didn't call the plays. It's out job to go out there and execute them and make them work. It's that partnership, that relationship, that I think leads to success. I think you saw we had some more input this week, but in the end, I think it's our job as a unit. Coaches have got to put their game plan together and what they think we can do best to go out there and win. And, we've got to go out there and make it work. As players, it's our job to go out there and play well, in the end. As much input as we have, it doesn't mean anything if we don't make it work."

On having no sacks, no interceptions and throwing crisp passes:

"Well, I think it's a part of the growth of this offense. In the NFL, you have to be balanced. You have to be able to do it different ways to find ways to win. You're never going to be able to always impose what you want to do on a defense. You play good defenses in this league, and if they want to take away one thing, they're probably going to be able to take it away. You've got to be able to find another way to get it done. That's just the way it is. So, you have to be balanced. You have to be able to do things, have multiple looks, different personnels and you have to be able to attack defenses a lot of different ways in this league. I think that's part of the growth of this offense. I think we're taking a step, be able to throw the ball a lot , ball control and make good decisions and execute better in the passing game."

On whether this team could have done this in the season opener:

"I don't know. I have no idea. I wasn't back there. That would probably be a better question for Shaun [Hill], but I think we're fully capable of it. There's a learning curve with it. First year together doing things there's always going to be some type of learning curve."

On what he was thinking on the fourth-down play:

"Exciting, thinking about where I was going to throw the ball. To come up in the look they gave us, bringing pressure. They had a man on Vernon [Davis]. We took the shot. We liked the call. Obviously, at the time, I liked the call and I was going to be aggressive."

DT Justin Smith
Post-Game-Quotes November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On picking up a game in the division:

"We just have to take it one at a time. We can't really control what happens with them, we can only control what we do. Now we have to come back and get ready for next week."

On the defensive effort today:

"They just went to their no-huddle offense. Usually anytime a team goes to that you play a little deeper and they are able to move the ball. They did move the ball but when we really had to, we made the plays. They are a talented offense and we were able to get off a couple times and make them pay for it."

On the pressure the team applied on QB David Garrard:

"I think everybody got pretty decent pressure today. We mixed it up a little bit, but the biggest thing was getting them into predictable situations where we knew they were throwing the ball and that a screen or draw probably weren't a possibility, which have hurt us all year. So that was good."

T Adam Snyder
Post-Game-Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On the offensive line playing together in unison against Jacksonville:

"It's nice to have the ball in your hands at the end of the game and be able to kneel on it. It's something that we haven't been able to do the past eight or nine games, so to finish it out like that was nice."

On QB Alex Smith's performance against Jacksonville:

"I thought that he played great. He stayed clean and got the ball out when he needed to and we did well up front protecting him. Our backs were also good in protection. That's what we have to keep focusing on which is to keep getting better as an offense."

On the offense not beating themselves with penalties and turnovers:

"Those are huge when you win the game, you can see how it affects it when you don't have many penalties and turnovers. You get to keep the ball in your hands and keep moving the chains. It's a good thing for the offense."

LB Takeo Spikes
Post-Game Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On the pressure they were able to get on [QB David] Garrard:

"We had the opportunity to beat the 1-on-1s. We got 1-on-1s a lot and that's what it boils down to. All sacks are not going to come free so we have to beat the 1-on-1s."

On the team's mentality knowing that Arizona lost:

"It's truly a one at a time mentality. One eye is focusing on the next game and the other eye is focusing on the big picture. If we continue to do that, I think at the end of the day when we look back in December it's going to take care of itself, I guarantee you that."

LB Patrick Willis
Post-Game-Quotes - November 29, 2009
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

On what led to the win:

"Our coaches during the week put in a good game plan. We knew that No. 9 [QB David Garrard] and No. 32 [RB Maurice Jones-Drew] basically ran their offense. We knew that we had to tackle well against No. 32 when he gets the ball and we knew they were going to try to come in and run it on us because that is what they like to do. We knew we needed to stop the run and once we stopped the run our offense started putting up points and we knew they had to throw the ball then."

On LB Takeo Spikes' post-sack dance:

"That means we are out there having fun. When he did that, I just knew the game was almost over. It is something the coaches talked about, don't go out there saying, "We have to win we have to win.' Go out there and have fun and let the chips lay where they are going to lay. Just go out there and have fun and that's what we were doing."

On tackling Jones-Drew:

"He is stout. When you tackle him you have to grab him. If you can get to his legs and stop his legs then you have him, but if you grab his upper body and have no leverage he is just going to keep on running."

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 11

Florida Danny — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:06:28 -0000

I was looking through my previous posts and just realized that I haven't given you guys a full-fledged player stats article since the bye week. A lot's changed since then, especially on OFF, so it's just as well I've given the new additions enough time to give us a valid look at their performance. Nevertheless, consider this my atonement. It'll be informative...and short! That's definitely a win-win, no?

This week, QBs need a total of at least 83 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 88 carries, WRs need at least 35 targets, and TEs need at least 17 targets. Isaac Bruce has been relegated to "The Invisible Man," but his replacement, Jason Hill, doesn't have nearly enough targets (only 7) to qualify. Also, although Shaun Hill qualifies, it's kind of pointless to talk about his stats. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 167 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

DYAR per Pass	Rank	EYds per Pass	Rank	DVOA	Rank
0.20	25	5.23	25	-7.9%	25
YAR per Pass	Rank	Yds per Pass	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.12	25	5.81	24	-9.2%	25

You'll notice that I've changed DYAR and YAR into "per-opportunity" statistics. Doing this (a) removes the advantage of having more opportunities to accrue yardage; and (b) allows us to, in a way, look at how valuable a player is to his offense each time his offense gives him an opportunity to show his value. I think that's pretty useful to know.

From the uniformity of Smith's rankings, we can rename him "25th best QB in the NFL." Although this doesn't look so good for him, I'll point out a couple of things that make Smith's glass half-full. First, keep in mind that Smith has a positive DYAR/P, meaning that he's actually more valuable to the 49ers' OFF on a per-pass basis than an average replacement would be. In other words, an average replacement would only be averaging 5.61 yards per pass (i.e., 5.81 minus 0.20), so it's good news for the Niners that Smith is the one out there taking snaps. Second, there are only 25 QBs in the NFL who have a positive DYAR/P, so you can say Smith is among the group of NFL QBs who should not be replaced by an average backup.

Third, keep in mind that, when Smith took over at QB, Shaun Hill had a negative DYAR/P of -0.48 (would currently rank 31st), and a much more negative DVOA of -27.1% (currently ranks 35th). Therefore, what we can say about Smith is that, although there's plenty of room for improvement, his stats provide ~~indisputable~~ evidence that Mike Singletary made the right move in making Smith the 49ers' starting QB. Of course, the move seems to have been about 7 weeks late, but that's a matter for a different day.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 112 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

DYAR per Run	Rank	EYds per Run	Rank	DVOA	Rank
0.58	17	4.38	22	6.2%	16
YAR per Run	Rank	Yds per Run	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.48	20	5.46	3	3.6%	18

The moral of the story in this table is three-fold. First, he's over half-a-yard more valuable to the Niners' OFF than an average replacement, who would be giving the team 4.88 yards per run instead of Gore's 5.46. Second, despite the fact that his yards are more valuable than those from an average replacement, he's still only the 17th-most valuable RB in the NFL right now, which goes to show you how minimized his role has become in the OFF.

Finally, and most importantly, it's clear that Gore's astronomical Yards per Run stat is a statistical mirage due to the fact that raw NFL stats assume every yard is created equally; which you should know by now is simply not true. One thing his raw rushing average totally ignores is the effect of game situation. To see what I mean, take a look at the discrepancy between his Yards per Run ranking and his EYds per Run ranking. EYds accounts for both game situation and opponent, but based on the small discrepancy between his DVOA and VOA - which only differ because of opponent adjustments -we can basically rule out strength of schedule as a factor. Therefore, game situation is the major adjustment factor that causes Gore's EYds per Run to be over 1 yard lower than his raw rushing average.

A second thing his rushing average ignores is the difference between a mean, a mode, and a median. In statistics, a mean is just the raw average of a set of numbers, a mode is the most-typical number in the set, and a median is the 50th percentile of the set (i.e., the number smack dab in the middle if you listed the set in ascending order).

Obviously, the mean of Gore's carries is just his raw rushing average of 5.46. To get the mode and median, I've taken the time, using play-by-plays, to find out the yardage Gore gained on each of his 112 carries this season. Much to no one's surprise, the mode and median expose his average's mirage. Specifically, the mode of Gore's carries this season (i.e., his most-typical gain on a given carry) is only 3 yards. Similarly, the median of Gore's carries this season (i.e., the yardage value smack dab in the middle of all 112 carries) is also 3 yards.

So, you see, Gore's rushing average is so high because it totally ignores the fact that he's had 4 carries of over 40 yards this season. In fact, if you take out those 4 carries, his raw rushing average decreases all the way down to 3.21, which, given Gore's mode and median, is a much more accurate reflection of what the 49ers' OFF can expect from him on a given carry. And just so you don't think I'm being unfair by replacing those 4 runs with 0 total yards, his average is still only 3.46 if I instead replace them with 10 yards each. Of course, now I'm probably being too generous because Gore has only 10 carries this season of 10 yards or more (aka only 8.9% of his carries).

Here's why this whole mean, mode, and median thing matters. FO's research shows that, all else being equal, a RB who's consistently "successful" from carry to carry is better for an OFF than a RB who's of the "boom or bust" variety. So far in 2009, Frank Gore has clearly been the latter according to his mode and median. That's because, based on the methods behind DVOA and years of football research, a 3-yard gain can only be "successful" on 2nd & 5 or less and 3rd & 3 or less. In every other down-and-distance situation, Gore's typical 3-yard run is an "unsuccessful" carry. And just in case you don't believe me, here's one more stat for you: Only 39% of Gore's carries this season have been "successful" given the down and distance in which they occurred, which ranks him - wait for it - 32nd among qualifying RBs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Crabtree's our new #1 WR, so I'll present his stats first. Here they are through 36 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

DYAR per Target	Rank	EYds per Target	Rank	DVOA	Rank
-0.22	60	5.47	67	-15.7%	62
YAR per Target	Rank	Yds per Target	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.03	58	8.11	33	-12.3%	58

Obviously, this doesn't look very good. I probably don't have to say this but, I'm not worried about Crabs in the least bit, regardless of what these stats say. And, basically, what they're saying is that he's (a) a rookie, and (b) he's been making a lot of pretty-meaningless catches this season. We've seen that he has the talent to be much better than what's displayed above; he just needs time and competent offensive technicians at OC and QB. So the key for me is seeing whether, and by how much, these stats improve as those things emerge. Averaging over 7 Targets per Game is a good start on the "time" front.

Here are Morgan's stats through 43 targets so far this season:

DYAR per Target	Rank	EYds per Target	Rank	DVOA	Rank
0.16	55	6.56	54	-10.5%	55
YAR per Target	Rank	Yds per Target	Rank	VOA	Rank
0.42	50	7.09	51	-7.3%	50

When last I gave you Morgan's stats, which were based on only 16 Targets, his DYAR/T was 2.27 (20th) and his DVOA was 17.2% (also 20th). To say that the last 27 targets have not been kind to him would be a gross understatement. Again, however, I wouldn't be too hard on Morgan right now. As was the case with Crabtree, Morgan's still a youngster, so one thing he needs is time. Furthermore, his last 27 Targets perfectly coincide with Crabtree taking his spot in the starting lineup, the byproduct of which was Morgan's switch from one WR position to the other. In other words, he's learning an entirely new WR position, so, for all intents and purposes, he's a rookie all over again. Honestly, irrespective of the stats, I'm more hopeful about the 49ers' WR corps than I've been at any time since the days of Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 83 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

DYAR per Target	Rank	EYds per Target	Rank	DVOA	Rank
1.08	17	7.53	21	10.4%	18
YAR per Target	Rank	Yds per Target	Rank	VOA	Rank
1.10	19	7.24	22	10.6%	18

VD's stats are a good illustration of why looking at per-target stats is a more accurate way of going about things. That's because he's actually ranked 10th among TEs in total DYAR right now, but being the most-targeted TE in the NFL has given him an opportunity advantage over the competition. This is not to say that the per-target stats above are some kind of mirage like Gore's were. Rather, it just shows the importance of factoring out targets when looking at the stats; which I've done for you in the table.

The important thing to take away from the table is that VD's DYAR/T and DVOA are easily the best among skill-position players on the 49ers. His targets have been both valuable and efficient this season, and that's what matters most. His lower-than-expected rankings are just a byproduct of the fact that VD's been targeted over twice as many times as the average qualified TE. I'd say being that much of a focus in the game plan is as good a measure as any when it comes to how "valuable" VD is to SF's OFF. Oh, and one other thing, all of the stats in the table are higher than what they were when Smith took over in Week 7.

OFFENSIVE LINE

I already showed you yesterday how much the OL sucks based on their overall ALY, so all that's left is their directional ALY stats. Here's the now-familiar chart, except I've added the now-familiar italics/bold scheme:

Compared to what they were since the last time I presented them, the OFF has fallen even further in love with running up the middle, and the OL has improved considerably on LE runs at the expense of performance in all other directions. You already know my feelings about the "we <3 the middle" thing, but I have absolutely no clue why they're so good at blocking on LE runs when compared to other directions or about why they've improved so much in LE blocking. My only guess is that their RBs have only run to the outside left 13 times this season, so that small of a sample size means (a) their LE ALY might be skewed by a couple of long runs in that direction, and (b) there's a whole lot of volatility in the stat from one carry to the next. I welcome your theories in the comments section.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

I told you yesterday that the Niners' DF7 is flat-out awesome. Below is a chart showing the DF7's awesomeness in specific run directions (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

There are a couple of interesting things shown in this chart. First, when compared with the last time I presented them, the DF7 has gotten unbelievably better in all directions except RE, and are actually now in the top 8 on runs behind LT, where they used to be ranked 29th. Aside from the LT ALY, this is bona fide improvement. However, with LT ALY, this is as much a "regression to the mean" thing as it is bona fide improvement because the DF7 has, to date, still only faced 10 RB carries in that direction. Justin Smith couldn't have been that bad before, after all. Also, similar to what I said about VD, the fact that SF opponents have only run the ball 10 times behind LT says more about how valuable Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are to their run DEF than their LT ALY ever could.

Second, let's go back to that increasing RE ALY. Back when the DF7 was ranked #1 at stopping runs to the outside right, I made the point that it had a lot to do with Nate Clements' SS-like ability to help out in the run game. Therefore, to me, the fact that they've dropped 10 spots in the rankings since Week 5 seems wholly explained by its coincidence with Clements' absence. As much as I love Terell Brown, he - nor most any other CB - is even in the same universe as Clements when it comes to run-stopping ability. The good news is that they've only dropped 10 spots since Clements got benched/injured, and are still ranked in the top half of the league. Let's see if that continues with Dre "Premature Celebration" Bly taking Brown's place on that side.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers:

Speaking of Brown's demotion, it turns out that the Niners' secondary actually improved after he took over for Clements: they're now 13.6% more efficient against #1 WRs. Furthermore, they're now the #1 secondary in the league when it comes to defending their opponent's #2 WRs, and have moved up from 6th to 3rd in defending TEs. So, let me get this straight. After Brown replaces Clements, the secondary shows an across-the-board journey into ReallyDamnGoodLand, and the DF7 hasn't lost much in terms of stopping runs to the outside right. So what's the pressing roster move that needs to be made after the Packers loss? Benching Brown and promoting Bly, of course. Makes perfect sense. Seriously, as much as I realize that NFL coaches know more about football than all of the fans combined, it drives me absolutely insane when the stats so clearly show one thing, and they do the exact opposite.

Oh, and by the way, what I've just shown you about the effect of Clements' absence kind of proves my point after 5 games about perhaps moving Clements to SS in the future. It sure looks like the Niners' DEF hasn't lost much without him at LCB. How about letting him focus on the one good thing he's awesome at: stopping the run?

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 10 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Better than Hill.
Frank Gore: Victim of "up the middle for no gain."
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: The 49ers' OFF.
The OL: Still not "imposing their will."
The DF7: "Imposing their will."
The secondary: Better without Nate.

Later this morning: 49ers-Jaguars game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Week 12 Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers

Jonathan Loesche — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:29:05 -0000

San Francisco 49ers (4-6)	Week #12	Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
	VS.

Date:	November 29nd, 2009	Location:	San Francisco, CA
Time:	4:15 PM EST	Stadium:	Candlestick Park
TV:	CBS	Favorite:	49ers -3
Radio:	Click Here	Over/Under:	40.5
Weather:	Sunny, mid 50's	Injury Report:	Click Here
SBN Coverage:	Niners Nation	Coverage Map	Click Here

Well, this is it guys. Tim Tebow's final home game. Standing in his way is a dilapidated Seminole team that is a shell of the 90's powerhouse. Oh wait, there's another football game this weekend involving a team from Northeast Florida? Could've fooled me.

The Jaguars make their second trip out west this season to take on a fast sinking 49ers team. After starting the year 3-1, Mike Singletary's bunch has lost five of their last six. In addition, they can thank Jay Cutler for their 10-6 win over Chicago a few weeks ago.

The similiarities between Singletary and Jack Del Rio are striking on the surface. Both are ex-Pro Bowl linebackers who worked their way up the ranks before becoming head coaches. Both want their teams to run the ball, stop the run, and punch the other team in the mouth. And both have issues with getting the most out of their teams on a consistent basis.

Will the Jaguars get to 7-4 or will they have another bad west coast trip?

Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense

The 49ers rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 256 yards a game. Despite signing Nate Clements to the richest defensive contract in NFL history, the 49ers only have six interceptions this year off QBs not named Jay Cutler. The 49ers also rank 22nd in the NFL in sacks. Perhaps the most chilling stat for the 49ers is that their pass defense has gotten worse over that six game span. The team has given up 286 yards a game, including four 300 yard games.

Needless to say, statistically this should prove to be a good day for David Garrard and the Jaguars WR corp. Mike Sims-Walker has been favoring a hamstring injury, but practiced all week. However, I sat here last week and said Maurice Jones-Drew would get 200 yards and 4 TDs against the Bills run defense.

Where the 49ers defense excels is against the run. Led by All-World MLB Patrick Willis, the 49ers are 6th in the NFL against the run. In addition, they are tied for second for the lowest per carry average, 3.4 yards.

The offensive line will need to play much better than the siv they were against the Bills. The rock solid line that rose to the occassion against the Jets needs to make another appearence if the Jaguars want to win.

Maurice Jones-Drew needs just 74 yards to hit 1,000 and 2 touchdowns to set the franchise record for rushing TDs. I say he breaks 1,000 and ties the franchise record this week, before breaking it next week vs Houston.

Jaguars Defense vs 49ers Offense

The Alex Smith experiment returns for an encore performance against the Jaguars. Since replacing Shaun Hill in Week 7 of the regular season, Smith has put up respectable numbers in 2009. Smith boasts a 81.5 QB rating this year, a far cry from his career average of 66.5.

The 49ers passing offense flows through All-Pro Tight End Vernon Davis. Davis is easily the team's leading receiver with 51 receptions, 601 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The Jaguars have never done well against receiving tight ends (see Clark, Dallas) so it will be a challenge to keep Davis contained.

The most talked about player in the 1st round this fear was WR Michal Crabtree. Since Crabtree finally signed with the team he has put up ok numbers, but nothing mind blowing. All I can say is that I'm much happier seeing him on the opposing sideline this week.

Since the Jaguars have returned to the 4-3 defense, the returns have been excellent. Discouting the big play to Terrell Owens, the Jaguars limited the Bills to just 250 yards of offense last week. Derrick Harvey's continued growth is promising, though more sacks would certainly be welcomed.

Once again the Jaguars will be without Rashean Mathis. Tyron Brackenridge did a good job vs Owens despite what the numbers say, and if nothing else, at least we won't see Reggie Nelson at corner again.

Player On The Hot Seat

David Garrard, QB

The 49ers will likely sellout to stop Jones-Drew and that means David will need to be on his game on Sunday. Expect to see the Jaguars throw early and often to take advantage of the bad pass defense.

Prediction

Jaguars 24

49ers 13

-Jonathan Loesche

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Team Stats through Week 11

Florida Danny — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 03:45:24 -0000

Welcome back for another installment of my weekly look at the 49ers' team stats and rankings according to Football Outsiders' DVOA stat.* As I stated last week, part of the impetus for my new schedule was that my posts tend to be - and this is putting it mildly - on the longish side. So, some of you will be happy to see that this team stats post will be much shorter than it used to be. Basically, I've taken some info that I used to present here (e.g., TOT, OFF, DEF, & ST DVOA), and moved it to other posts during the week.

The fortunate byproduct of moving so many stats to other posts is that I can add in a couple of new stats here, and still have this post be shorter than it used to be. The new DVOA stats I'll be presenting in this post are

Home/Road DVOA - pretty self-explanatory.
Score Gap DVOA -how efficiently the OFF and DEF have performed in various game score situations.

In addition to these 2 stats, I'll be providing some pretty charts that show you the 49ers' Game-by-Game DVOAs on OFF and DEF over the course of the season thus far.

Housekeeping done. Time for the party.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here' how the offensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

OFF	Rank	Pass	Rank	Run	Rank	Variance	Rank
-10.5%	22	-3.5%	21	-5.3%	23	4.7%	6
OFF VOA	Rank	Pass VOA	Rank	Run VOA	Rank
-7.6%	23	0.0%	21	-2.9%	20

If you've been reading these posts all season, you'll notice something absolutely astounding. Namely, the 49ers' OFF is no longer ranked 25th or worse (aka in the bottom 8) in any of the above categories. In terms of their overall OFF DVOA, they've risen 4 spots and 5.5% since the bye week. You might ask, "Why?"

After the jump, I'll show you why, and then present the rest of the stats through Week 11...

To figure out why the Niners' OFF has improved to the degree that it has, check out the first of my new charts, which displays the smoothed-out trend for SF's Game-by-Game OFF, Pass OFF, and Rush OFF DVOA:

What this chart shows is pretty darn interesting, if you ask me. Basically, the OFF overall has been getting better ever since Alex Smith was elevated to starting QB (i.e., since the Falcons game). However, you'd think that it's been the pass OFF acting as the catalyst. Well, although it's true that - except for the Titans and Bears games - the pass OFF has generally been on the positive side of game DVOA, the rush OFF trend has yet to dip below 0.0% since Smith took over. So, my conclusion here, which I'm pretty sure I made last week, is that the biggest beneficiary of Alex Smith starting has not been Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree; rather, it's been Frank Gore.

The reason for this counterintuitive effect seems plainly obvious. I've been giving you guys Shotgun vs. Non-Shotgun DVOA for weeks. With the abridging of this post, I've decided to drop them in general. However, because Smith starting has coincided with more shotgun, I'll give them to you one more time this week, except I'll show you what they are now as compared to what they were after the ATL game:

Through Week 11
% of Plays in Shotgun	Rank	Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Non-Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Difference	Rank
40.0%	13	8.7%	19	-20.4%	28	29.1%	9
Through Week 5
% of Plays in Shotgun	Rank	Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Non-Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Difference	Rank
32.9%	22	0.6%	21	-21.8%	27	22.4%	12
Change From Week 5 to Week 11
% of Plays in Shotgun	Rank	Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Non-Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Difference	Rank
7.1%	9	8.1%	2	1.4%	-1	6.7%	3

From this table, you can clearly see that, since Smith became the starter, the Niners' OFF has (a) become a much more shotgun-heavy unit, and (b) has become a much better shotgun unit. And again, based on game-by-game DVOA, Gore and the rush OFF has improved more over this time than the pass OFF. Therefore, it's pretty obvious that a major reason why the 49ers' rush OFF has gotten so much better is that they're using more shotgun.

In my view, the basic phenomenon at play here is that the shotgun is a passing formation, so opposing DEF's are either in a base DEF with only 7 men in the box, or their in a nickel DEF with only 6 men in the box. In other words, when the Niners' OFF lines up in shotgun, it prevents their opponent from committing 8 or 9 defenders to stopping the run. Given that the 49ers' OL is so bad at run-blocking, having a numbers advantage in the shotgun formation has essentially taken a team weakness and turned into a team strength.

As much as it makes me cringe to do this, I have to give kudos to Jimmy Raye for realizing this and working it into the game plan. To me, it's clearly the right thing to do from a strategic perspective. What frosts my rear end, however, is when any mention of even more shotgun seems to imply to the coaches that doing so will either prevent offensive balance or get them away from being the run-oriented OFF they so desperately want to be. As you can see from the stats I've just presented, this is unadulterated hogwash. The 49ers can just as easily have a run-oriented OFF out of the shotgun as they can have a multi-WR "spread" offense out of the shotgun. Furthermore, they don't have to sacrifice balance either. If anything, using more shotgun gives them a better chance of remaining a balanced OFF because having the threat of either running and passing - which the shotgun seems to have resulted in - will give them the flexibility of being able to call a run play or pass play at any given time, and the opposing DEF not being so certain about which is coming.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - DOWN SPLITS

Here are the OFF's pass and run DVOAs by down (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Down	OFF	Rank	Pass OFF	Rank	Run OFF	Rank
1st	-4.1%	20	-0.7%	21	0.6%	13
2nd	-20.1%	29	-16.6%	27	-9.7%	23
3rd	-8.9%	21	6.4%	18	-12.6%	26

The last time I gave you these stats was after Week 7. A lot has changed since then, again mostly due to Smith's elevation to the starting QB role. First, the 49ers' OFF is now 13.9% worse overall on 1st down, with the pass OFF being 33.6% worse, but the rush OFF being 7.6% better. So, once more we see that more shotgun equals better running because, in my mind, opposing DEF's aren't stacking the box with 8 or 9 guys absolutely certain that the Niners are going to run up the middle on first down.

Further evidence of this "we're not telegraphing our plays" idea is the change from Week 7 in 3rd-down OFF. Specifically, the 49ers' OFF is 1.6% better overall, with the pass OFF being 10.9% worse, but the rush OFF being 41.8% better. Again, strategy is the key. The presence of an actual passing threat on 3rd down - via the emergence of a successful shotgun OFF overall - prevents the DEF from keeping all of their defenders (esp. their Ss) within 10 yards of the line, and this numbers advantage allows the running game to be successful on 3rd down.

Here are the OFF's down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

Distance	OFF	Rank	Short	Rank	Mid	Rank	Long	Rank
1st	-4.1%	20	N/A
2nd	-20.1%	29	-28.4%	27	-11.5%	22	-20.9%	25
3rd	-8.9%	21	9.5%	15	-16.6%	22	-25.2%	23

The story continues here as well, with the biggest changes since Week 7 coming on 3rd & mid and 3rd & long. Specifically, the OFF is now 39.2% better on 3rd & mid, but 34.8% worse on 3rd & long. Once again, tendencies, and the ability of a shotgun OFF to mask tendencies, seems to be the catalyst. What is 3rd & long? It's clearly a passing down. Which part of the OFF, as indicated above, has gotten worse on 3rd down overall? The pass OFF. What is 3rd & Mid? Well, it's likely a passing down, but it could also be a running down. Regardless of whether it's a passing or running down, the DEF can't keep all defenders close to the line when there's a credible passing threat. Which part of the OFF, as indicated above, has gotten better on 3rd down overall? The rush OFF. So, to me, it's no surprise that the 49ers have gotten worse at the 3rd-down distance from which the DEF can play 100% pass, but have gotten a lot better at the 3rd-down distance from which the DEF can't play 100% pass.

I hope you're following my logic here. If you don't here's my reasoning in a nutshell:

Smith replacing Shaun Hill has led to more shotgun because Smith is more comfortable in shotgun.
Smith replacing Hill has led to a credible downfield passing threat because Smith has a better arm.
The shotgun is a pass-heavy formation.
Therefore, opposing DEF's cannot commit 8 or 9 guys to the box on running downs, or keep 9 or 10 guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage on passing downs.

The OL no longer has to face 8/9 defenders in the box on running plays or 10 defenders within 10 yards of the line on passing plays.
The OL can't run block to save their lives.
Therefore, the OL's weakness at run-blocking is nullified by not having a numbers disadvantage.

The OL now has a fighting chance of run-blocking successfully, which gives Raye more flexibility to call whichever type of play he feels is best.
Therefore, 1st down is no longer an obvious running down for the 49ers' OFF, and 3rd & mid is no longer an obvious passing down for the 49ers' OFF.

The 49ers' OFF has gotten better at running the ball overall, on 1st down, and on 3rd down.
The 49ers' OFF as a whole has gotten better at 3rd & mid.
Therefore, the combination of Smith replacing Hill and a Smith-induced increase in the 49er OFF's use of shotgun has led to a better rushing attack.

Chew that one for a minute along with your Thanksgiving leftovers.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - HOME/ROAD SPLIT

This is almost anti-climactic given what I've focused on so far, so I'll make it short. Here's how the OFF plays at home and on the road (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Home	Rank	Road	Rank	Difference	Rank
-18.8%	28	-1.7%	18	-17.1%	28

In this table, the Difference stat assumes that teams play better at home. Therefore, the table shows that the Niners' OFF plays over 15% better on the road than they do in Candlestick. Given their truly "offensive" performances at home vs. ATL, TEN, and CHI, this should come as no surprise. It's still interesting though, and makes me wonder why they suck so badly on OFF at home.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - SCORE GAP SPLIT

As I mentioned in the Formula for Success post yesterday, FO considers a game to be "close" when neither team has an 8-point lead or greater. Therefore, DVOA can be split into plays that occur while a team is losing big (i.e., by 8 or more), tied or losing small (i.e., by less than 8), winning small (i.e., by less than 8), and winning big (i.e., by 8 or more). Here are the score-gap splits for the 49ers' OFF (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Losing Big	Rank	Tied/Losing Small	Rank	Winning Small	Rank	Winning Big	Rank
29.7%	6	-25.2%	31	-10.2%	22	-50.4%	31

If you've been following the discussion this week on NN, you know exactly what I'm going to say here. Namely, the stats totally back up my argument. Similar to what Bill Walsh once said about Steve DeBerg, the Niners' OFF plays "just good enough to get you beat." When they're losing, they play balls to the wall until they get the game close, then can't finish the comeback. When they're winning, they totally take their foot of the pedal, and try to coast home for victory. The most enraging part of this table for me is their DVOA when winning big. As I've said before, being up by 8 or more before the 4th quarter is not a reason to simply shut down your OFF and expect to kill the last 20+ minutes of clock. For this year's Niner OFF, that's exactly what happens. Put the DVOA-while-losing and DVOA-while-winning ingredients together, and you have yourself the recipe for "5 losses by 7 points or less."

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

To me, the 49ers' OFF is the far juicier story both right now, and going forward, so I'm not going to dwell on the DEF's stats and rankings. Besides, the DEF's stats and rankings don't really seem to fluctuate that all each time I post them. Therefore, I'll just simply present them to you for your own edification, and provide very brief comments.

Here' how the defensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

DEF	Rank	Pass	Rank	Run	Rank	Variance	Rank
-7.9%	6	-2.0%	11	-15.7%	5	8.2%	24
DEF VOA	Rank	Pass VOA	Rank	Run VOA	Rank
1.4%	16	13.4%	21	-14.2%	6

Two things. First, that 9.3% discrepancy between DVOA and VOA means that the Niners' DEF has faced some pretty good OFF's so far this season. Second, the 13.6% discrepancy between Pass Off DVOA and Pass OFF VOA means that the Niners' pass DEF, in particular, has faced some pretty good pass OFF's so far this season.

Here's the DEF's Game-by-Game DVOA chart:

Two things. First, notice that the range in performance for the Niners' DEF is 40% narrower than for the OFF (See OFF's chart above). Second, unlike the case with offensive units, the pass DEF and rush DEF seem to ebb and flow in unison, with their overall DEF DVOA always remaining somewhere in between the two.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - DOWN SPLITS

Here are the DEF's pass and run DVOAs by down (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Down	DEF	Rank	Pass DEF	Rank	Run DEF	Rank
1st	2.4%	18	16.8%	20	-12.2%	13
2nd	-20.7%	3	-10.1%	7	-31.4%	4
3rd	-8.7%	11	-16.4%	11	15.5%	21

Only thing to mention here is that the 49ers' 3rd-down DEF has improved 22.7% and moved up 9 spots in the rankings since Week 7, mainly because their 3rd-down pass DEF has gotten 29.3% better.

Here are the DEF's down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

Distance	DEF	Rank	Short	Rank	Mid	Rank	Long	Rank
1st	2.4%	18	N/A
2nd	-20.7%	3	-23.5%	6	47.1%	30	-38.7%	2
3rd	-8.7%	11	-13.9%	5	-37.9%	6	33.8%	25

You won't remember this but, through 6 games, the DEF's 2nd & Short and 3rd & Short DVOAs were 10.1% (24th) and 24.5% (22nd), respectively. This means that, in the past 4 games, the DEF has gotten 33.5% better on 2nd & short (up 18 spots in the rankings) and 38.4% better on 3rd & short (up 17 spots in the rankings).

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - HOME/ROAD SPLIT

Here's how the DEF plays at home and on the road (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Home	Rank	Road	Rank	Difference	Rank
-11.5%	3	-4.0%	12	7.5%	7

Pretty straightforward here. The Niners DEF plays better at home - shocker I know - and their home/road difference is near the top of the league.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - SCORE GAP SPLIT

Here are the score-gap splits for the 49ers' DEF (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Losing Big	Rank	Tied/Losing Small	Rank	Winning Small	Rank	Winning Big	Rank
-6.2%	13	-17.3%	2	0.2%	18	13.4%	21

Two things. First, the spread is a lot more uniform here, i.e., the Niners' DEF isn't systematically horrible in one score gap situation, but great in the opposite situation. Second, totally unlike the OFF, the DEF actually plays most efficiently when they're tied or down by 7 or less. In other words, when it comes to the 49ers completing comebacks, blame the OFF for failing to take the lead, not the DEF for failing to hold the game where it is.

BOTTOM LINE

I know that was a little longer than I anticipated, but I explained some things here that I won't be explaining in the future, and I kind of went on a little rant there in the OFF sections.

OK, so through 10 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers:

Please, Jimmy, more shotgun!
Please, Jimmy, stop taking your foot off the gas when the game is close!
The jury's still out whether Smith is the answer as a passer, but the OFF at least looks like a competent NFL unit with him taking the snaps.
Don't blame the DEF for the 49ers' 4-6 record. They've played a brutal schedule, and they actually play great when the game is close.

Tomorrow: player stats and rankings.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

For the 49ers' offense, which of the following do you think is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT byproduct of using more shotgun?

It prevents the opposing DEF from stacking the box

24 votes

It means they pass the ball more

8 votes

It nullifies the OL's ineptitude

40 votes

It allows Alex Smith to use the skill set he displayed in college

53 votes

It allows Alex Smith to see the DEF better

36 votes

It disguises their play-calls

8 votes

Other (specify in the comments section)

4 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

vs.

The 49ers look to get back on the winning track against a quirky Jacksonville Jaguars squad. I have always been intrigued by the Jaguars because something doesn't add up about them. They are 6-4, but something just seems off about that. Going through their 2009 statistics (listed at the bottom), I noticed that they've been outscored this season by 36 points. The only other team above .500 with a negative scoring differential is Denver (-13)...and I've always questioned Denver's early success (which is certainly bearing fruit now). Will the Jaguars keep it up the rest of the season?

The 49ers host the Jaguars in what will be the 3rd meeting between the two teams in the series, and the first at Candlestick Park. The last time the two teams squared off was in 2005 in Jacksonville, when the Jaguars defeated the 49ers 10-9.

The 49ers enter the upcoming game following a 30-24 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field last weekend. In that game, the Packers defense was able to hold off a second half surge by the 49ers offense to seal the victory. QB Alex Smith connected on three touchdown passes in the final two quarters of play, which included a 38-yard strike to rookie
WR Michael Crabtree for his first career touchdown, a 24-yard toss to TE Vernon Davis for his 8th score of the season and a 10-yard pass to RB Frank Gore, marking his 4th consecutive game with a touchdown.

The 49ers have won 6 out of their last 8 games at Candlestick Park. In those games, San Francisco has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one contest.

49ers-Jaguars Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers assistant strength coach Mark Uyeyama worked as a graduate assistant from 2001-2002 and an assistant in 2003 at Arizona State under Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who was then head coach. Jaguars defensive line coach Ted Monachino served in the same position with Arizona State during that time.
• 49ers QB Shaun Hill was coached by Jaguars assistant head coach/tight ends Mike Tice from 2002-2005 when Tice was the head coach for the Minnesota Vikings.
• 49ers rookie RB Glen Coffee was recruited and coached by Jaguars QBs coach Mike Shula when Shula was the head coach at Alabama (2003-06).
• 49ers DE Justin Smith was coached by Jaguars LBs coach Mark Duffner in Cincinnati from 2001-2002 when Duffner was the defensive coordinator there.

RAMS RE-UNITED - 49ers WR Isaac Bruce and CB Dre’ Bly were teammates with Jaguars WR Torry Holt for the St. Louis Rams from 1999-2002, winning a Super Bowl together in 1999. Bruce and Holt remained with the Rams and played together until 2007.

NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS – RB Maurice Jones-Drew was born in Anticoh, and still calls it home. Jones-Drew prepped at national powerhouse De La Salle High School, which won a record 151 straight games from 1992-2003. During the three years Jones-Drew starred there (1999-2002), he kept the streak alive, never losing a game.

HELLO AGAIN – 49ers SS Michael Lewis and Jaguars T Tra Thomas were teammates in Philadelphia from 2002-2006. Lewis, Thomas and Jaguars S Sean Considine all played together with the Eagles in 2005 and 2006. 49ers LB Takeo Spikes played on the same defense with Considine and was a teammate of Thomas’ while in Philadelphia in 2007.

GOLDEN DOMERS - 49ers WR Arnaz Battle and Jaguars T Jordan Black were teammates at Notre Dame for four seasons (1999-2002).

NATIONAL CHAMPS - 49ers DT Ray McDonald was a teammate of Jaguars DE Derrick Harvey and S Reggie Nelson at Florida. They were part of a National Championship team in 2006.

ROCKY TOP - 49ers NT Aubrayo Franklin and Jaguars DT John Henderson played on the same defensive line at the University of Tennessee in 2001.

FORMER 49ERS - Jaguars DL Atiyyah Ellison spent two years with the 49ers, serving on the active roster in 2007, and as a member of the practice squad in 2008.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 2
Series Record: Jaguars Lead Series 2-0
49ers Home Record vs. Jaguars: None
First Meeting: 9/12/99, Jaguars win 41-3
Last Meeting: 12/18/05, Jaguars win 10-9
Current Streak: Lost 2
Longest 49ers Win Streak: None
Longest Jaguars Win Streak: 2
Most 49ers Points: 9 (12/18/05)
Most Jaguars Points: 4 (9/12/99)
49ers Shutouts: None
Jaguars Shutouts: None

JACKSONVILLE 10, SAN FRANCISCO 9
At Jacksonville, FL, December 18, 2005

The San Francisco 49ers lost 10-9 to Jacksonville in what Head Coach Mike Nolan termed the most physical game of the season. The 49ers entered the game with six rookies in the starting lineup, including four on offense. Rookie RB Frank Gore started in place of the injured RB Kevan Barlow (knee) and gained over 100 combined yards with 79 yards rushing and 57 yards receiving. His most impressive play was at the end of the 1st half when he caught a screen pass from QB Alex Smith and raced down the right sideline for a 47-yard gain to the Jacksonville 30-yard line to set up a 47-yard FG by K Joe Nedney with one second left in the 1st half.

The 49ers opened the game with an 8-play, 80-yard drive that ended in the first of three Nedney FGs for a 3-0 lead. A big defensive play helped the 49ers take the 3-0 lead into the 2nd quarter. On 4th-and-1 from the San Francisco 6-yard line, DE Marques Douglas stopped FB Greg Jones for no gain and the 49ers took over on downs. Jacksonville converted two, 3rd-down plays on a 71-yard drive in the 2nd quarter that ended when QB David Garrard broke free from LB Julian Peterson on his way to a 13-yard TD for a 7-3 lead. The 49ers regained possession deep in their own territory with just 24 seconds left to play in the 1st half. Instead of taking a knee and allowing time to run out, the 49ers attempted a high percentage screen pass with the hopes of being able to break one for a big play. A pass from Smith to Gore in the right flat went for a 47-yard gain, with Gore sprinting down the sideline to the Jacksonville 30-yard line with 6 seconds left to play. Nedney nailed a 47-yard FG for a 7-6 halftime deficit.

After a scoreless 3rd quarter, the 49ers took a 9-7 lead on the first play of the 4th quarter with a 33-yard FG by Nedney. Smith completed a 28-yard pass to WR Johnnie Morton to get the 49ers in FG range. Jacksonville responded by taking the ensuing kick and advancing on a 10-play, 47-yard drive that ended in a 32-yard FG for a 10-9 lead. The Jaguars drive was aided when Nedney’s kickoff went out of bounds, allowing Jacksonville to start the drive at their own 40-yard line. The 49ers gained just 15 yards on their next four drives and committed one turnover when Smith was intercepted.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		JAGUARS (rank)
4-6 (2nd NFCW)	Record	6-4 (2nd AFCS)
20.8 (19th)	Points per game	19.9 (21st)
278.5 (27th)	Total Offense	354.0 (12th)
99.0 (24th)	Rushing Offense	136.3 (6th)
179.5 (23rd)	Passing Offense	217.7 (17th)
28:44 (21st)	Possession Avg	30:46 (11th)
21.0 (17th)	Points allowed/gm	23.5 (23rd)
350.8 (22nd)	Total Defense	356.9 (23rd)
94.7 (6th)	Rushing Defense	112.1 (17th)
256.1 (30th)	Passing Defense	244.8 (25th)
19 (t-21st)	Sacks	10 (32nd)
47.9 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	41.7 (26th)
0 (t-15th)	Turnover Differential	0 (t-15th)