SB Nation - Jonas Jennings

Ten worst Buffalo Bills draft picks of the decade

Brian Galliford — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:10:28 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

Yesterday, we talked about the ten best draft picks that the Buffalo Bills have made over the past decade. In order to complete our "[descriptive adjective] of the decade" series here, we've got to knock off the worst picks, too. This list can also be known as "why the Bills have sucked for a decade," but we're also hoping that one last vent session over these missed picks will be therapeutic as the franchise turns a new leaf - and a new decade - next month.

On to the list. Hope you can stomach it.

10. Josh Reed, WR, LSU (2002, Round 2, No. 36 overall)
Tom Donahoe's first draft as GM of the Bills, in 2001, netted some really good players. Nate Clements, Aaron Schobel and Travis Henry all made our "best of" list yesterday, and the Bills even got quality years and production out of third-round pick Jonas Jennings. 2002, however, was an epic flop, and Reed, the Bills' second-round pick (fourth overall in that round), was part of the reason why.

Drafted well ahead of his talent level thanks to a huge bowl game as a senior, the converted running back had a solid rookie season playing between Eric Moulds and Peerless Price on a very prolific Bills offense led by Drew Bledsoe. Then Price was shipped out of town, Reed became the starter, and his career has been incredibly average since then. This was the first in a long line of high-round luxury picks made by Donahoe that did not pan out, and obviously eventually cost Donahoe his job.

9. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech (2008, Round 3, No. 72 overall)
It's tough to put a player in his second year on this list (and we'll do it again soon), but Ellis is the poster child of several "good idea, bad philosophy/wrong player" picks that the Bills have made this decade. Picked when the Bills had a need to boost their pass rush, Ellis has seen extremely minimal playing time and barely made the roster in his second season. Unlike former second-round picks Schobel, Ryan Denney and Chris Kelsay, Ellis has not found any way to contribute to the team - and though it might still be too early to write him off, the Bills picked a project player with attitude issues in a season when they needed their high-round picks to produce.

8. Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State (2006, Round 1, No. 8 overall)
I suspect that most of you will want to see Whitner higher on this list, simply because the Bills passed on a dominant defensive lineman (Haloti Ngata) to get him. Philosophically, the pick makes at least some degree of sense; look at most of today's elite NFL teams, and you'll find an elite safety on the back end of the defense. Whitner, however, has failed to produce to the standards of a No. 8 overall pick thanks to his being shuffled from position-to-position and his own lack of elite playmaking ability. Whitner is a good player, which is why this pick doesn't rank much higher on the list. Philosophically, however, Buffalo erred here, and thus got the Dick Jauron era off to a not-so-hot start.

7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana (2008, Round 2, No. 41 overall)
Much like Ellis, I'm hesitant to put a second-year player on this list, particularly at the wide receiver position. I still very much believe that Hardy has what it takes to be a poor man's Plaxico Burress-type threat in this league, particularly in the red zone. He won't get the reps to do it any time soon, however.

This pick makes the list because philosophically, it was perhaps the worst team-building move the Bills made in the last half of the decade. Buffalo knew entering the '08 off-season that they needed a threat to complement Lee Evans and help develop young quarterback Trent Edwards. They courted veteran free agents like Bryant Johnson, but that didn't pan out, so they went to the draft and came away with... a tall receiver in need of an incredible amount of polish. Everyone knows that the bigger a rookie receiver, the longer it'll take to develop them. (Unless their surname is Fitzgerald or Johnson.) Hardy couldn't nail down a starting job, Edwards went into a shell thanks to a lack of weapons that he'd never re-emerge from, and the rest is history. Buffalo fixed the situation a year too late with the Terrell Owens signing.

6. Travares Tillman, S, Georgia Tech (2000, Round 2, No. 58 overall)
Tillman played in the NFL for quite a while. He made a nice living as a journeyman safety with some range and athletic ability, and he even picked off 3 passes with Miami in 2005. But you generally would like your second-round picks to spend more than two seasons with your team, which is exactly what Tillman did. He did not survive the regime change from Wade Phillips to Gregg Williams, and that's an indictment on the efforts of former GM John Butler in his last Bills draft class.

5. Roscoe Parrish, WR, Miami, FL (2005, Round 2, No. 55 overall)
Yikes. Without a first-round pick thanks to an epic draft-day blunder of a trade that we'll discuss a bit higher on this list, Donahoe, in his last draft as a Bills GM, chose the gadget player to rule all gadget players with Parrish as his top selection on the season. Parrish has had his moments with this team, and for a while, he was the NFL's best punt returner, setting career average records and putting the Bills in position to win a few games thanks to timely big returns. But Parrish was drafted to be much more than a punt returner; unfortunately, that's all the Bills have gotten.

4. John McCargo, DT, North Carolina State (2006, Round 1, No. 26 overall)
It'd be difficult for most teams to find a bigger first-round flop than McCargo in the past decade; unfortunately for the Bills, they have three bigger flops. Again, this was a case of the Bills taking a player far higher than his talent level indicated; the Bills desperately needed a starting defensive tackle that season, and the fact that they lucked into Kyle Williams four rounds later doesn't make this pick any less of a reach. Since this pick, McCargo has dealt with several small injuries, one major injury (a bulging disc in his back), been traded, had the trade negated, and toiled at the bottom of the Bills' depth chart. Not exactly what you'd like out of a first-round pick.

3. Erik Flowers, DE, Arizona State (2000, Round 1, No. 26 overall)
Butler's last draft featured Flowers as its centerpiece. Bruce Smith had left the team, and the Bills were searching for their next great pass rusher. Flowers didn't stick in Buffalo because Gregg Williams brought in a 4-3 defense that Flowers, a 3-4 pass rusher, did not fit into. But the four sacks that Flowers picked up in two seasons with Buffalo represent 80% of his career total of five, which he picked up in five NFL seasons.

2. J.P. Losman, QB, Tulane (2004, Round 1, No. 22 overall)
This, my friends, was Epic Fail No. 2. Drew Bledsoe had something left in the tank, and the Bills were pushing toward a playoff berth. They did, however, need a quarterback of the future, and then-head coach Mike Mularkey fell in love with the deep ball of a cocky kid from Tulane. Mularkey loved that deep ball so much that the Bills traded multiple picks to Dallas to move back into the first round to get their cocky kid quarterback. Two years later, Mularkey was gone, Losman had a flash-in-the-pan season under Dick Jauron, and then a Losman knee injury began the memorable Trent Edwards era. Now, Losman is attempting to get back into the NFL after leading the Las Vegas Locomotives to a UFL championship.

1. Mike Williams, OT, Texas (2002, Round 1, No. 4 overall)
It's tough to top Losman, but Williams found a way to do it. Williams is the poster child for terrible Bills drafting, and the centerpiece of the plethora of issues that got Donahoe fired. At the time, Williams was given the richest contract in franchise history, but to say that he never lived up to his potential would be a severe understatement. He spent four highly mediocre seasons as Buffalo's right tackle before lazy-ing himself out of the sport entirely; one of the very first actions Marv Levy took on this roster as GM was to cut Williams. Big Mike made a not-so-dramatic return to NFL football this season with Washington, and is now toiling in anonymity on one of the league's worst units that features another former Bill, Derrick Dockery.

Just click his name and take a gander at his picture to see just how far Williams' star has fallen.

Comparing the Donahoe regime to the Jauron regime

Ron From NM — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 04:15:08 -0000

It is said that hindsight is 20/20. When looking back at previous NFL Drafts, it's easy to cherry pick the great players a team could have had versus the players that were actually selected. It's fun, too. I started looking at the Buffalo Bills' historical draft classes, and was actually a little surprised to realize how little turnover there has been at One Bills Drive over the past two decades. Buffalo has had Bill Polian, the late John Butler, Tom Donahoe and, most recently, the "Inner Circle" making the draft day decisions. Instead of going all the way back to the 1986 Draft, I decided to look at the drafts of the two most recent eras.

We, as Bills fans, take certain things as articles of faith. Donahoe was a moron. He completely neglected the offensive line. The Inner Circle never met a DB they didn't like. OBD has a weird fascination with Ohio State. MRW is secretly a Dolphins fan. (Okay, I made that last one up.) Are these articles of faith true? Check after the jump...

I've taken a look at the drafts from 2001 through 2008. Yes, I realize that it's tough to say much definitively about the most recent drafts. However, I think we can actually begin to compare the Inner Circle and Donahoe eras. I've divided the draftees into four groups:

First Tier: These are the guys who have stood out over a period of time. They may not be the best in the business, but they're generally well-respected players, many of whom have been to a Pro Bowl or two.

Second Tier: These are the guys who have been solid, if unspectacular, players. They tend to make up the bulk of most NFL rosters. They can play, but aren't likely to have widespread league recognition.

Third Tier: These are the limited role players, generally limited to special teams. They might fill reserve roles, but tend to come and go.

Fourth Tier: Everyone else. Many of these guys don't even make the roster, and some of them are out of the NFL within a year or two. Sometimes it's due to injury; other times, due lack of opportunity. Most often, however, they just can't cut it in the NFL.

The Donahoe Drafts
2001: Donahoe started things off with a bang in his first draft. The first tier guys from the draft were DB Nate Clements, DE Aaron Schobel, and RB Travis Henry. OT Jonas Jennings was a second tier guy. No one else really even registers. For those who wonder, Travis Henry did make good on his second round selection. He was a productive back on some bad teams and did bring some trade value.

2002: This was the infamous year of the Mike Williams pick. However, three second tier guys (WR Josh Reed, DE Ryan Denney, and DB Coy Wire) highlighted the draft. Coy Wire makes it into the second tier largely because of his versatility and his contributions on special teams.

2003: This was Donahoe's best draft in terms of pure numbers. First tier players include RB Willis McGahee and DB Terrence McGee. Second tier guys include DE Chris Kelsay (sorry Kurupt) and LB Angelo Crowell. Third tier picks were WR Sam Aiken and LB Mario Haggan.

2004: The draft was notable for exactly one first tier player, WR Lee Evans. Everyone else was a bust.

2005: Like 2004, this draft was notable for exactly one first tier player, Roscoe Parrish. He's a first tier guy because of the fact that he's been one of the best return men in league history. No, he hasn't been a great WR, but he was the highlight of Donahoe's last draft.

Inner Circle Drafts
2006: The Inner Circle started out with two first tier players, DT Kyle Williams and OG Brad Butler, as well as two second tier players, DB Donte Whitner and LB Keith Ellison. John McCargo, to this point, has been a bust; Ashton Youboty hasn't been healthy enough to do anything; Ko Simpson was demoted; and Terrance Pennington was cut before his second season started.

2007: This has been the best draft of the Inner Circle to date. Two first tier guys were picked - RB Marshawn Lynch and LB Paul Posluszny - as well as two second tier guys, QB Trent Edwards and TE Derek Schouman. One third tier player was selected in DB John Wendling. To clarify, Edwards might turn out to be a first tier guy - this season should answer the question one way or the other.

2008: Yes, it's really early to judge the class. (For obvious reasons, we won't break down the current draft class.) However, I think we can safely describe DB Leodis McKelvin as a first tier guy (due to his awesome return game) and TE Derek Fine as a second tier guy. James Hardy, Demetrius Bell, Chris Ellis, Reggie Corner, Alvin Bowen and Steve Johnson are largely unknown quantities at this point.

***

To sum up, that's seven first tier guys, six second tier guys, and two third tier guys for Donahoe. The Inner Circle compares favorably to those results, already turning in five first tier guys, five second tier guys, and one third tier guy.

You can take it as in indictment of Donahoe or as credit to the Inner Circle for good drafting. It's not a coincidence that the Bills seem to be headed in the right direction. To come away from drafts with just one player, as happened in both 2004 and 2005, really sets a team back. (It's pretty clear that I see it as an indictment of Donahoe...)

Moving on, let's take a look at the articles of faith. Did Donahoe ignore the offensive line? Does Jauron have a DB fetish?

Donahoe drafted 2 OL in 2001, 2 in 2002 (Mike Williams with the No. 4 overall pick), 1 in 2003, 1 in 2004, and 2 in 2005 for a total of 8 offensive linemen in 5 years (out of 42 picks). It seems out of line to suggest that Donahoe ignored the line given that about 20% of the picks were devoted to it. The problem was that Jennings was the closest he came to a hit. The case can be made that Donahoe didn't invest heavily enough in the line during the first day of the draft, as only Jennings and Mike Williams were picked within the first three rounds. It's a little surprising when just the sheer numbers are considered, even if Tom Donahoe clearly wasn't a good judge of offensive line talent.

What about Jauron and his alleged DB fetish? The Inner Circle has made 34 total draft picks. Of those, 11 have been defensive backs. That's one third of the players taken over the past four drafts - so, yeah, the Inner Circle has focused heavily on defensive backs. By way of comparison, Buffalo has taken just two defensive tackles. Just to sicken Kurupt, the Inner Circle has effectively selected just one defensive end - Aaron Maybin, with C.J. Ah You being a seventh-round favor to the family of a friend of Marv Levy's.

While it is inaccurate to suggest that Donahoe ignored the offensive line, it is indeed accurate to suggest that the Inner Circle has ignored the defensive line on draft day. Granted, the Inner Circle brought in Marcus Stroud via trade as well as acquired Spencer Johnson in free agency. Building through the draft, however, would seem to be the better long term course.

Football Outsiders thinks the San Francisco 49ers are "an obscure football team"

Fooch — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:00:19 -0000

If you take nothing else from this post, the title says it all. It's safe to say that the stats at Football Outsiders, and Bill Barnwell in particular (the man who wrote the 49ers section), are not feeling the 49ers in 2009. Before I go into detail, Dan Brown of the San Jose Mercury News also took time to run through this. I have not read his post yet because I wanted to give my impressions unshaded by others.

First off, the sales pitch. Normally FO produces the Pro Football Prospectus, available in Borders and other bookstores. This year, due to some contractual issues, they're in between publishers (or something like that) and the book will NOT be available in bookstores. Instead, you can either purchase a PDF version of it at the FO website now, or it will soon be available through Amazon.com. One plus to getting the PDF is that it's $12, while Amazon will be charging $20. For a poor law student, that's like 2 beers in San Francisco!

Second, the DISCLAIMER. If you're planning on purchasing this and really don't want to know what they've said about the 49ers, this is your chance to ignore this post. I'm not discussing everything in the book, nor even everything they say about the 49ers. This first post is an overview of their 49ers thoughts. Over the coming weeks I'll break out more segments (or maybe Florida Danny can join in the act). You've been sufficiently warned.

For those who don't read Football Outsiders, they basically have come up with alternative statistics that allow them to get a more accurate view of team performance. Basically they look at every single play from a season and compare to a league average based on given situations. I'd go into more detail, but there are others who can do it much better than I. We might even get some insight from Florida Danny before the end of the summer. In the meantime, here's a rundown of their methods.

The 49ers section will definitely appeal to the Debbie Downers (some may call them realists) here at NN. As for me, well it teaches me to look for things other than stats. By far the best and worst description of the 49ers section is this:

That they are merely obscure and not downright awful should be cause for celebration; the difference between the Matt Millen-era Lions and the Scot McCloughan-era Niners is context and luck.

Let the McClueless jokes fly.

Over the last four years (2005-2008), the 49ers have third-worst 4-year stretch of any team in the 15-year history of DVOA. Who's the worst? The 2004-2007 49ers. Fantastic. FO looks at 2009 as a continuance of mediocrity: "Our projection of another year of mediocrity comes because of a crippling lack of progress over the last four seasons in locating, nurturing, and properly implementing talent up and down the roster. We'll have some more on that ray of sunshine after we get the projections up:

2008 Record: 7-9
Pythagorean Wins: 6.9 (NEVER doubt PW!)

2009 Mean Projection: 5.7 wins
On the clock (0-3): 15%
Loserville (4-6): 51%
Mediocrity (7-8): 22%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 10%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 2%

For those hoping for the playoffs, I think this video sufficiently sums it up.

After the jump we get into some of the nitty-gritty about why the 49ers are apparently going to suck. Also, I realize there will be plenty of "I told you so" people based on the projections. There are plenty of folks who will argue against the stats. Let's try and keep things relatively civil and remember that every person is entitled to their own opinion (that's my "play nice children" speech).

First off, let's take a quick look back at previous projected means from PFP. I own the 2007 and 2008 Prospectus's (Prospecti?!), which coincides with the time I've been running things here. In 2008, they projected out 5.3 wins and the 49ers finished with 7. There was a 65% chance the A's would finish with 6 or fewer wins and an 18% chance of 7-8 wins. In 2007, they projected out 8.1 wins and the 49ers finished with 5 wins in a debacle of a season. The percentages indicated a 24% chance they'd finish with 6 or fewer wins. So, for the optimists out there (including myself), maybe they'll strike gold in that 12% range of finishing with 9+ wins!

Before the more traditional FA statistical analysis, Barnwell posted his thoughts on the various issues ailing the 49ers during the McNolan era and into today. Given the detail he provides, I'll just go with some bullet points:

Vernon Davis/Manny Lawson: As much crap as Alex Smith gets, Barnwell points to the pair of first rounders that have not lived up to expectations; particularly from a 1st round class that has done quite well - he refers to Davis's skill set at this point as a poor man's Jim Kleinsasser and gets into the Manny Lawson sack issue in detail
Day 2 picks: Indicates SF will only start 1 player they drafted after the second round under McCloughan (Haralson)
Shaun Hill: We've had this discussion over and over again here, but basically he points to the schedule Hill has faced (wins against 2-14 Rams twice last year and two more teams mailing it in in 2007)
General flux of the offensive coordinators and lack of consistent play. That and the fact that they don't like Jimmy Raye's prospects
Identity: In general the team has struggled to find an identity. He points specifically to the 3-4/4-3 issues and how that resulted in Justin Smith bouncing around on the line and as linebacker.
Singletary: Jury's still out given the same factors as Hill in terms of schedule he faced
Crabtree: As they put it, "...the team's only real threat in the passing game - barring a huge step forward from Josh Morgan or Brandon Jones..." and the fact that rookie receivers take time to develop.

It's more detailed than that, but you get the general gist. If you'd like more specific information about a particular point, say so in the comments and I'll pass along some more details. Barnwell closes the essay indicating that there's no real point in discussing the stars of the team (Gore, Willis, and Clements among others) because "they don't matter in this sort of situation. They could be the best players in the league at their respective positions and it wouldn't be enough to overcome the mediocrity that permeates the majority of the roster."

Odds and Ends
The Almanac goes through each unit on offense and defense providing little tidbits and observations that are certainly intriguing. I thought I'd post some of them here. The first one relates to the signing of Marvel Smith and what it means for Joe Staley:

Smith’s signing also means that Joe Staley will play left tackle again this year. Staley is undoubtedly the
49ers’ most talented lineman, and he can handle the responsibilities of protecting Shaun Hill’s (or Alex Smith’s)
blindside, but he’s also an extraordinarily aggressive player who’s "mauler" mentality is far better suited for the
right side, clearing open lanes for Frank Gore (note that Gore’s production has dropped signiﬁcantly in the two years that Staley has manned the left side).

That's certainly an intriguing thought regarding Staley and his skills as an o-lineman. At the same time, they make no mention of the fact that he played left tackle in college. Is it possible that his development as an NFL left tackle will reach a new level this year? Maybe not, but it's something to pay close attention to.

On the defensive side of things they hit a lot of the notable issues (the OLBs, the cornerback opposite Clements, free safety, etc...). They have a few interesting comments about Justin Smith with the clarification of the 3-4 defense:

End Justin Smith is by far their most effective and reliable player on the defensive line, and he proved to be
worth every penny of his $45 million contract. In the dedicated 3-4, Smith will no longer be forced to drop back in pass coverage, and instead he can concentrate on rushing the quarterback’s blind side. At 285 pounds, though, he’s undersized for a 3-4 end, so there may be some issues with wear and tear as the season goes along.

As I said, there are plenty of details I'm not including here. I figured for now this is a good start. Over the coming weeks we'll have plenty more for discussion.

I thought I'd close with FO's look at the 49ers medical staff. The Almanac rates the 32 team medical staffs and it's one of the few areas where the team gets some props. FO has developed a metric called Adjusted Games Lost. They use injury reports, historical rates of player participation at each injury status, and research into a player's role on the team. The metric is measured over a three-year period.

The 49ers ranked 7th over the last three years and finished 6th in 2008 with 30.3 adjusted games lost. Given the less than stellar discussion of the 49ers, I think it's best to close with some kind of positive:

Trend: Slightly positive. Their biggest issue was with Jonas Jennings...[his] release in the offseason is a positive move...The defense only missed a total of four starts, which isn't likely to happen again.

NFC West Position-by-Position: Offensive Tackles

Hawkwind — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:47:30 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

Baylor's Jason Smith was selected as the second overall pick by the St. Louis Rams in the first round at Radio City Music Hall Saturday, April 25, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

Browse more photos »

We're still plowing through our weekly installments of position by position breakdowns of the NFC West (check out previous stories here) and today we continue our look at the big uglies. This time we jump to the outside of the offensive line and focus on the offensive tackles. The Arizona Cardinals have established veteran starters at tackle and promising depth waiting in the ranks but how do they measure up to the rest of the division?

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals offensive tackles are one of the more polarizing position groups on the team. Some fans will tell you that the combo of Mike Gandy and Levi Brown are two guards playing out of position who can't handle speed rushers and aren't holding their own in the running game. Other fans will say that the duo is pretty productive considering that they are often left on an island in pass coverage and have a statue for a QB. I tend to fall somewhere in the middle of the pack, with a slight lean to the latter, although I wouldn't be terribly surprised if both Gandy and Brown performed better at guard.

Overall the combo of Gandy and Brown are dependable starters in my mind. Gandy is the better of the two right now because he's better equipped to handle speed rushers, regardless of how bad he looked in the Super Bowl. He's adequate in the running game although he'll never be mistaken for a mauler, but overall he's a dependable protector of Kurt Warner's blind side. Levi Brown has been a bit of an enigma as he enters his third season and his biggest problem as a professional so far is being consistent. At times he looks like a physical protector worthy of his draft pick status while other times he can't handle speed rushers or move anyone in the running game. Still though, the talent is there and if Brown can manage to perform at a consistent level he'll be solid starter in this league for many years.

The backup situation is hard to explain because two of the three top backups can and likely will play guard at some point in their careers. To start simple, Elliot Vallejo is the primary backup at left tackle and the coaching staff thinks he's got starting potential somewhere in his future. Vallejo's future will likely be tested next off season as Gandy is a free agent and Vallejo would seem to be the first in line to fill the void, unless Brandon Keith gets into the mix. Keith, last year's seventh round pick, has turned heads since his very first practice last summer and he will be a starter somewhere on the line in the very near future. Last year Keith focused on right tackle but so far this off season he's been working at right guard. Some, mainly myself, think he's being prepped to start at right guard this season before stepping into a different starting role in 2010. Herman Johnson, this year's fifth round pick, is currently working out at right tackle but most think it's just a matter of time before he settles in at right guard.

Looking at the group as a whole, I'd say the starters are average or something very close to that and the depth is well above average. With that in mind, my grade is a C.

San Francisco 49ers - Niners Nation

The 49ers offensive tackles are yet another tough group to call. If everybody stays healthy, this unit could be a very solid strength for the team. If they're beset by a couple of injuries, they could come down like a house of cards.

The projected starters are Joe Staley at left tackle and Marvel Smith at right tackle. Staley is entering his third season in the league and his second season as the left tackle. He struggled at times last year, but over the course of the season developed into a solid guy on the blind side. The 49ers rewarded him this off season with a contract extension that will keep him a 49er through 2017. He is going to be the anchor of this offensive line for a long time to come.

On the other side is Marvel Smith. The 49ers added him this off season in hopes that he could fill the hole on the right side. Smith has dealt with numerous injury issues which left him on the free agent market longer than he probably would have liked. If he can stay healthy, the Oakland native could be a monster on the right side and give the 49ers two great bookends for the OL. Given the recent past I'm not exactly holding my breath, but the upside here is quite tremendous.

If Smith goes down (or if Staley does for that matter), the 49ers primary backups are Adam Snyder and Barry Sims. Sims is running out of time in this league and it showed at times last year. He and Snyder split time at right tackle once Jonas Jennings went down with his annual injury. I personally think Snyder handled himself capably after getting bounced back and forth between tackle and guard. He actually started the first seven games of the season at left guard, before being benched a week and then taking over at right tackle for six weeks. Although it's nice to show versatility, Adam Snyder will benefit by being able to finally concentrate on just on position.

A wild card for the 49ers is undrafted free agent Alex Boone. At one point Boone was projected as a potential top three round tackle. Unfortunately his season was a bust as he had major alcohol issues leading to an arrest and tasering at one point. If Boone can keep sober, he could provide some much needed depth this season. At the same time, I'd imagine he's working with a rather short leash.

In grading this team, I was tempted to go relatively high again. I think by the end of the year, we'll (or at least 49ers will) be looking back at the 49ers tackles as quite the strength for this team. I think a little more consistency on the offensive line, starting at the tackle positions, will be extremely beneficial to the team. At the same time, Joe Staley did struggle at times and will need to show continued improvement (which I am confident we'll see). And of course, Marvel Smith has to prove he can stay healthy. If he goes down, Snyder is a capable backup, but in the end that's all he is for now. If we had minuses or pluses I'd probably go B-/C+, but I'll round down for now and expect to be proven wrong. Grade: C

St. Louis Rams - Turf Show Times

The Rams enter new territory this season with long time fixture on the offensive line Orlando Pace gone, released and later signed by the Bears. It would be hard for many Rams fans to imagine life without Pace on the offensive line if they hadn't already had a taste of that since Pace has played in less than half of the team's games over the last three seasons.

Moving Alex Barron from the right to the left side was the first move of the post-Pace era. Barron has always been a solid blocker in both facets of the offense, but many within the organization felt they could get the most out of his talents on the left side given his wing span and athletic ability. Barron has to overcome his penalty problem to be effective and reach his potential, and some have questioned Barron's passion for the game. Nevertheless, he has been on the field, sometimes playing through injuries, for every game in the last three seasons. The new coaching staff seems to like what Barron has to offer and has made getting the most out of him a top priority, including bringing a ref to practice to drive home the point and help players learn snap counts in the new offense. Barron's hardly a bust, but can he reach his full potential?

On the other side, is the second pick from this year's draft, Jason Smith. Smith comes to the league with a reputation as an already solid pass blocker. Those too quick to discount his run blocking should know that 65% of Baylor's rushing yards came on his side of the field last season. There's no question this kid can play. The only questions Smith faces are: how high is his ceiling and how quickly can he reach it? The Rams can afford to let him develop, but they need for him to be a solid contributor in his rookie year. Fortunately, it's not unusual for top rookie OTs to play well in their first season.

The primary backup at OT is University of Wyoming product Adam Goldberg, a versatile lineman who has played well filling in for the numerous injured Rams starters in recent seasons. Goldberg's a reliable backup and the team doesn't lose much when he's playing.

Behind Goldberg, the depth chart has what you'd expect: some guys with nice potential plucked from the undrafted free agent ranks. Most notable among them is former Florida LT Phil Trautwein, a first team All-SEC player in 2008. Not bad for a guy who missed his entire '07 season with a fractured foot. Plenty of people will be watching when he puts the pads on at camp this summer to see if Devaney plucked another useful player from obscurity.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this group. For now, they get a C+, but if Barron cuts down on the penalties. Looking at the group as a whole, I'd say the starters are average or something very close to that and the depth is well above average. It's tough to assign them a grade. I want to go higher since they're a young, healthy group with a solid backup right behind the starters. However, Barron's in a new position and Smith's a rookie. Given the unknowns, I have to assign them a C.

Seattle Seahawks - Field Gulls

I'm in a tough spot. There was a time I would guess about Walter Jones. I would guess if he's healthy enough to play and if healthy enough to play, at what level. I won't do that. Because of that, Seattle's tackle ranking is incomplete. Jones is one of the five best offensive tackles to ever play in the NFL. Even as late as last year, he played at a high level. He turned 35 this January. He ended last season on IR and underwent some kind of microfracture surgery. The success rate for players of his age, weight and who play a line position is not good, but that's for all microfracture surgeries. The team insists this was a "minor" surgery and that Jones will be ready by training camp.

Primary right tackle Sean Locklear is Seattle's immediate depth behind Jones. Locklear started two games at left tackle last season. His first, against New England, matched him opposite future Hall of Fame defensive end Richard Seymour. Seymour is a matchup nightmare for Locklear. Locklear has a few above average skills. He mirror slides very well and is rarely beat around the edge. His overall footwork allows him to play well in space or when isolated, and he does a great job of keeping himself between the quarterback and the defender. He has decent blocking technique and can get under defenders, but isn't a mauler and isn't overpowering. Seymour is powerhouse end that's made a career out of overwhelming, overpowering and outlasting opposing tackles. He targets Locklear's greatest weakness: The ability to sustain blocks especially against a bull rush. Yet Locklear held his own. He played strong against Seymour and looked capable of becoming a competent left tackle.

Seattle didn't get many chances to test Locklear's aptitude. He was lost for the season one week later. Kyle Williams started the next two games. It took a lot of game-planning, but Seattle survived. Should Williams start, Seattle would almost certainly have one of the worst regulars at left tackle in the NFL, but he's starter capable. The Seahawks are legitimately three-deep at left tackle. There's good if not substantial proof that Jones, Locklear or Williams at left tackle and field a capable offense.

The other big body in the tackle mix is Ray Willis. Tim Ruskell drafted him in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. Willis is a huge body, hugely powerful and surprisingly athletic. He doesn't handle the edge rush well and is a confirmed right tackle, but given tight end help or a chip when needed and he's a good enough overall pass blocker. He is a very good run blocker and capable of being great. With a healthy Jones, Willis probably starts at right guard or works as a super-sub. Locklear starts at right and is a potential league-best pass-blocking right tackle. It was Seattle's pass blocking that made its 2007 passing offensive possible.

The Seahawks could toy with Max Unger at tackle, but probably won't. For deep depth there's Na'Shan Goddard, who's more size than athlete, and William Robinson, who's more athlete than size. (He's built like basketball player.) The grade flexes on Jones. Without him it's an average unit that could collapse. Greater exposure may prove Locklear incapable of playing left tackle. Neither Locklear nor Willis are consistently healthy. There's "A" potential and there's "F" potential. I'll put my faith in Walter and call it a "B".

The rankings were tough because I don't think any of these four teams is overwhelmed with the talent at offensive tackle but three of the four have young developing talent who were high first round picks. In the we defaulted to the grades and decided that the bottom three were all very close:

Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis ~~Cardinals~~ er, Rams
Arizona Cardinals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

In the end we could have fought for a higher ranking but it's really just Seattle on top (thanks to their grade of B) and everyone else very closely knotted at second. I do think that with Levi Brown's youth and promising backups Elliot Vallejo and Brandon Keith, we could be sitting atop these rankings in a year's time. Thoughts? How would you rank the teams?

NFC West Position-by-Position: Offensive Tackle

Fooch — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:30:10 -0000

Up to this point we've discussed quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and center. By an accident of my own making we jumped to tackle instead of just moving down the line to guard. I don't think it's a particularly big deal, but just a heads-up. The two tackle positions could be make or break for the 49ers this year. I think Joe Staley will be showing improvement, but the real question is what we'll get from Marvel Smith. There's also of course Adam Snyder and Alex Boone to create some depth, so who knows what'll happen.

I'd say it's probably easier to compare offensive tackles than centers. Given that Kurt Warner stayed on his feet most of last season, the Cardinals might be grading on a tough curve. We came up with the following rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. St. Louis Rams
4. Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks
Blogger: John Morgan
I’m in a tough spot. There was a time I would guess about Walter Jones. I would guess if he’s healthy enough to play and if healthy enough to play, at what level. I won’t do that. Because of that, Seattle’s tackle ranking is incomplete. Jones is one of the five best offensive tackles to ever play in the NFL. Even as late as last year, he played at a high level. He turned 35 this January. He ended last season on IR and underwent some kind of microfracture surgery. The success rate for players of his age, weight and who play a line position is not good, but that’s for all microfracture surgeries. The team insists this was a "minor" surgery and that Jones will be ready by training camp.

Primary right tackle Sean Locklear is Seattle’s immediate depth behind Jones. Locklear started two games at left tackle last season. His first, against New England, matched him opposite future Hall of Fame defensive end Richard Seymour. Seymour is a matchup nightmare for Locklear. Locklear has a few above average skills. He mirror slides very well and is rarely beat around the edge. His overall footwork allows him to play well in space or when isolated, and he does a great job of keeping himself between the quarterback and the defender. He has decent blocking technique and can get under defenders, but isn’t a mauler and isn’t overpowering. Seymour is powerhouse end that’s made a career out of overwhelming, overpowering and outlasting opposing tackles. He targets Locklear’s greatest weakness: The ability to sustain blocks especially against a bull rush. Yet Locklear held his own. He played strong against Seymour and looked capable of becoming a competent left tackle.

Seattle didn’t get many chances to test Locklear’s aptitude. He was lost for the season one week later. Kyle Williams started the next two games. It took a lot of game-planning, but Seattle survived. Should Williams start, Seattle would almost certainly have one of the worst regulars at left tackle in the NFL, but he’s starter capable. The Seahawks are legitimately three-deep at left tackle. There’s good if not substantial proof that Jones, Locklear or Williams at left tackle and field a capable offense.

The other big body in the tackle mix is Ray Willis. Tim Ruskell drafted him in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. Willis is a huge body, hugely powerful and surprisingly athletic. He doesn’t handle the edge rush well and is a confirmed right tackle, but given tight end help or a chip when needed and he’s a good enough overall pass blocker. He is a very good run blocker and capable of being great. With a healthy Jones, Willis probably starts at right guard or works as a super-sub. Locklear starts at right and is a potential league-best pass-blocking right tackle. It was Seattle’s pass blocking that made its 2007 passing offensive possible.

The Seahawks could toy with Max Unger at tackle, but probably won’t. For deep depth there’s Na’Shan Goddard, who’s more size than athlete, and William Robinson, who’s more athlete than size. (He’s built like basketball player.) The grade flexes on Jones. Without him it’s an average unit that could collapse. Greater exposure may prove Locklear incapable of playing left tackle. Neither Locklear nor Willis are consistently healthy. There’s "A" potential and there’s "F" potential. I’ll put my faith in Walter and call it a "B".

San Francisco 49ers
Blogger: Fooch
The 49ers offensive tackles are yet another tough group to call. If everybody stays healthy, this unit could be a very solid strength for the team. If they're beset by a couple of injuries, they could come down like a house of cards.

The projected starters are Joe Staley at left tackle and Marvel Smith at right tackle. Staley is entering his third season in the league and his second season as the left tackle. He struggled at times last year, but over the course of the season developed into a solid guy on the blind side. The 49ers rewarded him this offseason with a contract extension that will keep him a 49er through 2017. He is going to be the anchor of this offensive line for a long time to come.

On the other side is Marvel Smith. The 49ers added him this offseason in hopes that he could fill the hole on the right side. Smith has dealt with numerous injury issues which left him on the free agent market longer than he probably would have liked. If he can stay healthy, the Oakland native could be a monster on the right side and give the 49ers two great bookends for the OL. Given the recent past I'm not exactly holding my breath, but the upside here is quite tremendous.

If Smith goes down (or if Staley does for that matter), the 49ers primary backups are Adam Snyder and Barry Sims. Sims is running out of time in this league and it showed at times last year. He and Snyder split time at right tackle once Jonas Jennings went down with his annual injury. I personally think Snyder handled himself capably after getting bounced back and forth between tackle and guard. He actually started the first seven games of the season at left guard, before being benched a week and then taking over at right tackle for six weeks. Although it's nice to show versatility, Adam Snyder will benefit by being able to finally concentrate on just on position.

A wildcard for the 49ers is undrafted free agent Alex Boone. At one point Boone was projected as a potential top three round tackle. Unfortunately his season was a bust as he had major alcohol issues leading to an arrest and tasering at one point. If Boone can keep sober, he could provide some much needed depth this season. At the same time, I'd imagine he's working with a rather short leash.

In grading this team, I was tempted to go relatively high again. I think by the end of the year, we'll (or at least 49ers will) be looking back at the 49ers tackles as quite the strength for this team. I think a little more consistency on the offensive line, starting at the tackle positions, will be extremely beneficial to the team. At the same time, Joe Staley did struggle at times and will need to show continued improvement (which I am confident we'll see). And of course, Marvel Smith has to prove he can stay healthy. If he goes down, Snyder is a capable backup, but in the end that's all he is for now. If we had minuses or pluses I'd probably go B-/C+, but I'll round down for now and expect to be proven wrong. Grade: C

St. Louis Rams
Blogger: VanRam
The Rams enter new territory this season with long time fixture on the offensive line Orlando Pace gone, released and later signed by the Bears. It would be hard for many Rams fans to imagine life without Pace on the offensive line if they hadn't already had a taste of that since Pace has played in less than half of the team's games over the last three seasons.

Moving Alex Barron from the right to the left side was the first move of the post-Pace era. Barron has always been a solid blocker in both facets of the offense, but many within the organization felt they could get the most out of his talents on the left side given his wing span and athletic ability. Barron has to overcome his penalty problem to be effective and reach his potential, and some have questioned Barron's passion for the game. Nevertheless, he has been on the field, sometimes playing through injuries, for every game in the last three seasons. The new coaching staff seems to like what Barron has to offer and has made getting the most out of him a top priority, including bringing a ref to practice to drive home the point and help players learn snap counts in the new offense. Barron's hardly a bust, but can he reach his full potential?

On the other side, is the second pick from this year's draft, Jason Smith. Smith comes to the league with a reputation as an already solid pass blocker. Those too quick to discount his run blocking should know that 65% of Baylor's rushing yards came on his side of the field last season. There's no question this kid can play. The only questions Smith faces are: how high is his ceiling and how quickly can he reach it? The Rams can afford to let him develop, but they need for him to be a solid contributor in his rookie year. Fortunately, it's not unusual for top rookie OTs to play well in their first season.

The primary backup at OT is University of Wyoming product Adam Goldberg, a versatile lineman who has played well filling in for the numerous injured Rams starters in recent seasons. Goldberg's a reliable backup and the team doesn't lose much when he's playing.

Behind Goldberg, the depth chart has what you'd expect: some guys with nice potential plucked from the undrafted free agent ranks. Most notable among them is former Florida LT Phil Trautwein, a first team All-SEC player in 2008. Not bad for a guy who missed his entire '07 season with a fractured foot. Plenty of people will be watching when he puts the pads on at camp this summer to see if Devaney plucked another useful player from obscurity.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this group. For now, they get a C+.

Arizona Cardinals
Blogger: cgolden
The Cardinals offensive tackles are one of the more polarizing position groups on the team. Some fans will tell you that the combo of Mike Gandy and Levi Brown are two guards playing out of position who can't handle speed rushers and aren't holding their own in the running game. Other fans will say that the duo is pretty productive considering that they are often left on an island in pass coverage and have a statue for a QB. I tend to fall somewhere in the middle of the pack, with a slight lean to the latter, although I wouldn't be terribly surprised if both Gandy and Brown performed better at guard.

Overall the combo of Gandy and Brown are dependable starters in my mind. Gandy is the better of the two right now because he's better equipped to handle speed rushers, regardless of how bad he looked in the Super Bowl. He's adequate in the running game although he'll never be mistaken for a mauler, but overall he's a dependable protector of Kurt Warner's blind side. Levi Brown has been a bit of an enigma as he enters his third season and his biggest problem as a professional so far is being consistent. At times he looks like a physical protector worthy of his draft pick status while other times he can't handle speed rushers or move anyone in the running game. Still though, the talent is there and if Brown can manage to perform at a consistent level he'll be solid starter in this league for many years.

The backup situation is hard to explain because two of the three top backups can and likely will play guard at some point in their careers. To start simple, Elliot Vallejo is the primary backup at left tackle and the coaching staff thinks he's got starting potential somewhere in his future. Vallejo's future will likely be tested next off season as Gandy is a free agent and Vallejo would seem to be the first in line to fill the void, unless Brandon Keith gets into the mix. Keith, last year's seventh round pick, has turned heads since his very first practice last summer and he will be a starter somewhere on the line in the very near future. Last year Keith focused on right tackle but so far this off season he's been working at right guard. Some, mainly myself, think he's being prepped to start at right guard this season before stepping into a different starting role in 2010. Herman Johnson, this year's fifth round pick, is currently working out at right tackle but most think it's just a matter of time before he settles in at right guard.

Looking at the group as a whole, I'd say the starters are average or something very close to that and the depth is well above average. With that in mind, my grade is a C.

Poll

Who has the best offensive tackles in the NFC West (starters and depth)?

Seattle Seahawks

67 votes

San Francisco 49ers

219 votes

St. Louis Rams

10 votes

Arizona Cardinals

25 votes

321 votes | Poll has closed

NFC West Roundtable: Offensive Tackle

John Morgan — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:57:49 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Seattle's tackles turn on the health of Walter Jones.

Browse more photos »

Seattle Seahawks
Blogger: John Morgan

I’m in a tough spot. There was a time I would guess about Walter Jones. I would guess if he’s healthy enough to play and if healthy enough to play, at what level. I won’t do that. Because of that, Seattle’s tackle ranking is incomplete. Jones is one of the five best offensive tackles to ever play in the NFL. Even as late as last year, he played at a high level. He turned 35 this January. He ended last season on IR and underwent some kind of microfracture surgery. The success rate for players of his age, weight and who play a line position is not good, but that’s for all microfracture surgeries. The team insists this was a "minor" surgery and that Jones will be ready by training camp.

Primary right tackle Sean Locklear is Seattle’s immediate depth behind Jones. Locklear started two games at left tackle last season. His first, against New England, matched him opposite future Hall of Fame defensive end Richard Seymour. Seymour is a matchup nightmare for Locklear. Locklear has a few above average skills. He mirror slides very well and is rarely beat around the edge. His overall footwork allows him to play well in space or when isolated, and he does a great job of keeping himself between the quarterback and the defender. He has decent blocking technique and can get under defenders, but isn’t a mauler and isn’t overpowering. Seymour is powerhouse end that’s made a career out of overwhelming, overpowering and outlasting opposing tackles. He targets Locklear’s greatest weakness: The ability to sustain blocks especially against a bull rush. Yet Locklear held his own. He played strong against Seymour and looked capable of becoming a competent left tackle.

Seattle didn’t get many chances to test Locklear’s aptitude. He was lost for the season one week later. Kyle Williams started the next two games. It took a lot of game-planning, but Seattle survived. Should Williams start, Seattle would almost certainly have one of the worst regulars at left tackle in the NFL, but he’s starter capable. The Seahawks are legitimately three-deep at left tackle. There’s good if not substantial proof that Seattle could start Jones, Locklear or Williams at left tackle and field a capable offense.

The other big body in the tackle mix is Ray Willis. Tim Ruskell drafted him in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. Willis is a huge body, hugely powerful and surprisingly athletic. He doesn’t handle the edge rush well and is a confirmed right tackle, but given tight end help or a chip when needed and he’s a good enough overall pass blocker. He is a very good run blocker and capable of being great. With a healthy Jones, Willis probably starts at right guard or works as a super-sub. Locklear starts at right and is a potential league-best pass-blocking right tackle. It was Seattle’s pass blocking that made its 2007 passing offensive possible.

The Seahawks could toy with Max Unger at tackle, but probably won’t. For deep depth there’s Na’Shan Goddard, who’s more size than athlete, and William Robinson, who’s more athlete than size. (He’s built like a basketball player.) The grade flexes on Jones. Without him it’s an average unit that could collapse. Greater exposure may prove Locklear incapable of playing left tackle. Neither Locklear nor Willis are consistently healthy. There’s "A" potential and there’s "F" potential. I’ll put my faith in Walter and call it a "B".

San Francisco 49ers
Blogger: Fooch

The 49ers offensive tackles are yet another tough group to call. If everybody stays healthy, this unit could be a very solid strength for the team. If they're beset by a couple of injuries, they could come down like a house of cards.

Turf Show Times
Blogger: VanRam

The Rams enter new territory this season with long time fixture on the offensive line Orlando Pace gone, released and later signed by the Bears. It would be hard for many Rams fans to imagine life without Pace on the offensive line if they hadn't already had a taste of that since Pace has played in less than half of the team's games over the last three seasons.

Moving Alex Barron from the right to the left side was the first move of the post-Pace era. Barron has always been a solid blocker in both facets of the offense, but many within the organization felt they could get the most out of his talents on the left side given his wing span and athletic ability. Barron has to overcome his penalty problem to be effective and reach his potential, and some have questioned Barron's passion for the game. Nevertheless, he has been on the field, sometimes playing through injuries, for every game in the last three seasons. The new coaching staff seems to like what Barron has to offer and has made getting the most out of him a top priority, including bringing a ref to practice to drive home the point and help players learn snap counts in the new offense. Barron's hardly a bust, but can he reach his full potential?

On the other side, is the second pick from this year's draft, Jason Smith. Smith comes to the league with a reputation as an already solid pass blocker. Those too quick to discount his run blocking should know that 65% of Baylor's rushing yards came on his side of the field last season. There's no question this kid can play. The only questions Smith faces are: how high is his ceiling and how quickly can he reach it? The Rams can afford to let him develop, but they need for him to be a solid contributor in his rookie year. Fortunately, it's not unusual for top rookie OTs to play well in their first season.

The primary backup at OT is University of Wyoming product Adam Goldberg, a versatile lineman who has played well filling in for the numerous injured Rams starters in recent seasons. Goldberg's a reliable backup and the team doesn't lose much when he's playing.

Behind Goldberg, the depth chart has what you'd expect: some guys with nice potential plucked from the undrafted free agent ranks. Most notable among them is former Florida LT Phil Trautwein, a first team All-SEC player in 2008. Not bad for a guy who missed his entire '07 season with a fractured foot. Plenty of people will be watching when he puts the pads on at camp this summer to see if Devaney plucked another useful player from obscurity.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this group. For now, they get a C+, but if Barron cuts down on the penalties...

Arizona Cardinals
Blogger: cgolden

The Cardinals offensive tackles are one of the more polarizing position groups on the team. Some fans will tell you that the combo of Mike Gandy and Levi Brown are two guards playing out of position who can't handle speed rushers and aren't holding their own in the running game. Other fans will say that the duo is pretty productive considering that they are often left on an island in pass coverage and have a statue for a QB. I tend to fall somewhere in the middle of the pack, with a slight lean to the latter, although I wouldn't be terribly surprised if both Gandy and Brown performed better at guard.

Overall the combo of Gandy and Brown are dependable starters in my mind. Gandy is the better of the two right now because he's better equipped to handle speed rushers, regardless of how bad he looked in the Super Bowl. He's adequate in the running game although he'll never be mistaken for a mauler, but overall he's a dependable protector of Kurt Warner's blind side. Levi Brown has been a bit of an enigma as he enters his third season and his biggest problem as a professional so far is being consistent. At times he looks like a physical protector worthy of his draft pick status while other times he can't handle speed rushers or move anyone in the running game. Still though, the talent is there and if Brown can manage to perform at a consistent level he'll be solid starter in this league for many years.

The backup situation is hard to explain because two of the three top backups can and likely will play guard at some point in their careers. To start simple, Elliot Vallejo is the primary backup at left tackle and the coaching staff thinks he's got starting potential somewhere in his future. Vallejo's future will likely be tested next off season as Gandy is a free agent and Vallejo would seem to be the first in line to fill the void, unless Brandon Keith gets into the mix. Keith, last year's seventh round pick, has turned heads since his very first practice last summer and he will be a starter somewhere on the line in the very near future. Last year Keith focused on right tackle but so far this off season he's been working at right guard. Some, mainly myself, think he's being prepped to start at right guard this season before stepping into a different starting role in 2010. Herman Johnson, this year's fifth round pick, is currently working out at right tackle but most think it's just a matter of time before he settles in at right guard.

Looking at the group as a whole, I'd say the starters are average or something very close to that and the depth is well above average. With that in mind, my grade is a C.

The Art (and Science) of Drafting: IId. The McNolan Era (2005-2008)

Florida Danny — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 00:00:14 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry about the delay in getting this one posted. My computer crashed yesterday because a genius (aka me) let the battery run out, so I had to wait until it fully recharged (aka today) to continue writing up the piece.

Yesterday, in Part 2c of my review of 49er draft history, I broke down the Donahue regime's picks from 2002-2004 by round, position, and conference. Just to refresh everyone's memory, here was my description of Donahue's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks, especially when your team sucks.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
I <3 the Pac-10!
BCS or die!

In comparison with the Walsh II and Policy regimes, Donahue didn't make the Policy regime mistake of trading away picks when the team was good (2002), he used Walsh II's strategy of drafting for need on Day 1 when rebuilding, he brought back the Policy regime's affinity for Pac-10 players, and he surpassed both Walsh II and the Policy regime in percentage of picks that came from BCS conferences

In this article, I'll be ending the regime breakdowns with a look at the McNolan era (2005-2008).

After the jump, I'll put the McNolan drafts in context; break the results down by position, draft day, and conference; sum up the regimes; and provide the idiot's guide to McNolan draft strategy...

Here again is the link to my Excel spreadsheet of 49er draft picks in the Salary Cap Era. I realized that some of you probably don't have Excel 2007, so I converted it to be compatible with older versions (and fixed the link in previous posts as well):

49er Draft Picks 1994-2008

IN CONTEXT

In Part 2c, I told you how Donahue didn't hit the home run he needed to with his rebuilding project in the 2004 draft. One additional piece of evidence for this is the fact that, by the very next draft, Donahue's replacements had to rebuild the roster once more through the draft. Therefore, Donahue's 2004 fire sale and draft has to rank among the shortest rebuilding phases of a franchise in the history of sports (and not in a good way). Now, I'm sure you don't need some long-winded description of what the team has done record-wise since 2004, so I'll just get on with the specific needs in each of McNolan's drafts:

2005 Draft - Key Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson (free agency), OL Kyle Kosier (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (career-threatening injury), OL Scott Gragg (free agency), DL John Engelberger (trade), DB Ronnie Heard (free agency), K Todd Peterson (free agency). Weak 2004 Stats: 30^th in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA; 19^th in ST DVOA.¹ Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for QB Jeff Garcia, RB Garrison Hearst, WR Terrell Owens, and DB Zack Bronson; major injuries to QB Tim Rattay, LB Andre Carter, DB Ahmed Plummer. Needs: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, K, LB depth.

2006 Draft - Key Losses: QB Tim Rattay (trade), RB Kevan Barlow (trade), FB Fred Beasley (free agency), WR Brandon Lloyd (trade), WR Johnnie Morton (released), LB Julian Peterson (free agency), LB Andre Carter (free agency), and DB Ahmed Plummer (career-threatening injury). Weak 2005 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Garcia, Hearst, Owens, and Bronson; major injury to TE Eric Johnson. Needs: FB, WR, LB, DB, QB depth, RB depth, TE depth.

2007 Draft - Key Losses: WR Antonio Bryant (released), TE Eric Johnson (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (free agency), and DB Tony Parrish (released). Weak 2006 Stats: 22^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA; 18^th in ST DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bronson; OL Larry Allen and DL Bryant Young now in their mid-30s. Needs: WR, DB, ST, TE depth, OL depth, DL depth.

2008 Draft - Key Losses: WR Darrell Jackson (free agency), OL Larry Allen (retirement), OL Justin Smiley (free agency), DL Bryant Young (retirement), DL Marques Douglas (free agency), and LB Derek Smith (free agency). Weak 2007 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bryant; major injuries to QB Alex Smith, OL Jonas Jennings, and LB Manny Lawson. Needs: WR, OL, DL, LB, QB depth.

In preparation for its drafts, McNolan has had to deal with about 7 key losses per offseason, which is fewer than Walsh II (8), but more than Donahue (4) and the Policy regime (4). Interestingly, the course of McNolan's tenure has seen a mixture of his 3 predecessors' draft contexts. The 2005 and 2006 offseasons were Walshian, with about 8 key self-induced, salary-cap-caused losses per season that generally involved kicking dead weight to the curb or trading it for draft picks. The 2007 offseason was Donahue-esque, with only 4 key losses and a team feeling good about itself after a promising season. Finally, 2008 was Policy-like in that there were two retirements to deal with. Overall, I'd say the most similar previous context to McNolan's was the Walsh II era.

I know this is totally off-topic, but, Cedrick Wilson may have made the greatest career decision in the history of the NFL by signing with PIT after the 2004 season. If he stays in SF, he's stuck on a 6-win team for the foreseeable future (at least until he roughed up his ex-girlfriend) catching passes from Rattay, Smith, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, and Chris Weinke. Instead, he goes to PIT and wins a ring his first season with the team catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger. Seriously, whatever it was that made him leave the Niners, he needs to bottle and sell it. Can you guys think of any other player in recent years who's lucked out like that?

Anyway, back to the regularly scheduled program. For the sake of comparison, here's how McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup in 2005 and 2006:

Morton (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Wilson
Snyder (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Kosier
OL Eric Heitmann (2002 Donahue draft pick) for Newberry
OL Kwame Harris (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Gragg
Douglas (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Engelberger (after moving Young to 3-4 DE)
DB Mike Adams (2003 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Heard
K Joe Nedney (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Todd Peterson
Smith (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Rattay
RB Frank Gore (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Barlow
FB Moran Norris (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Beasley
Bryant (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Lloyd
WR Arnaz Battle (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Morton
Lawson (2006 McNolan draft pick) for Julian Peterson
LB Brandon Moore (2002 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Carter (after moving him to 4-3 ROLB)
DB Shawntae Spencer (2004 Donahue draft pick) for Plummer (after moving him to LCB)

Adding it all up, McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup with 5 traditional free agents, 4 draft picks, and 6 players originally acquired by Donahue. Comparing this to the previous regimes, McNolan used free agency more than Walsh II and Donahue, but less than Policy; and they had a "holdover rate" of 33.3%, which was smack dab in between Walsh II (16.7%) and Donahue (50.0%).

So there's the context. Hopefully you sense a pattern emerging here: the contexts of McNolan drafts have been a cocktail of issues and solutions having the ingredients of each predecessor; 2 ½ parts Walsh II, 1 part Donahue, and ½ part Policy.

PICKS, PICKS, AND MORE PICKS

From 2005-2008, the 49ers made 35 selections in the NFL draft, which nearly equalled the Walsh II and Donahue rate of 9 picks per season. In 2005 and 2006, the main rebuilding years, McNolan stockpiled picks via all those trades I mentioned earlier; just like Walsh II and Donahue. The past 2 drafts, however, McNolan has tended to trade away picks (you're welcome, NE) rather than stockpile them; just like the Policy regime. Once again, the trend here is for McNolan to be a mixture of all 3 predecessor's strengths and weaknesses.

In terms of McNolan's overall Pro Bowl rate, a Donahue-esque and Walshian 5.7% of its picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers (Gore and LB Patrick Willis). However, its starter rate of 34.3% - which includes OL Chilo Rachal's midseason and DB Dashon Goldson's offseason ascensions - is the worst of the 4 regimes (Policy regime = 41.4%; Walsh II = 48.1%; Donahue = 48.1%). When you remember the differences in context between regimes, you realize that McNolan has been way worse at picking starters than the context-similar Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse than the context-different Policy regime, whose superior teams made it harder for draft picks to crack the starting lineup (i.e., the Policy regime's starter rate is artificially low due to context).

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has continued the Walsh II and Donahue standard of 9 draft picks per season.
McNolan has stockpiled picks when the team sucked, and traded away picks when (they thought) the team was good.
McNolan has been as bad at picking Pro Bowlers as the "unlikely to have Pro Bowlers because the team sucked" Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse at picking starters than the "unlikely to have draft selections start because the team was good" Policy regime.
Overall, McNolan seems to be channeling the good and bad of its 3 predecessors.

DAY ‘N' NIGHT

McNolan has taken exactly 40% of its picks on Day 1 of the draft, and 60% on Day 2. That's almost identical to Walsh II's 41/59 split, which, as I said in Part 2c, was smack dab between the Policy (52/48) and Donahue (33/67) regimes.

Looking at the relative success of its picks by draft day, we find that 64.3% of McNolan's Day 1 picks have become 49er starters, which is, again, right in the middle of the 4 regimes; not as good as Walsh II's (81.8%, which I incorrectly reported as 64.3% in Part 2b), but basically on par with the Policy regime's (60.0%) and Donahue's (55.6%). Remember, though that Walsh II and Donahue are the better comparisons in terms of team context. On Day 2, an abysmal 14.3% of McNolan picks have become 49er starters, easily the worst of the 4 regimes (again, even worse than the starter-unlikely Policy regime). So while McNolan has had pretty standard success on Day 1 in terms of starters, it's been horrible at picking Day 2 starters.

The best example of this dichotomy between Day 1 and Day 2 results is McNolan's initial rebuilding draft in 2005. Here it is:

Rd	Player	Pos	Starter?	Pro Bowl?
1	Alex Smith	QB	Yes	No
2	David Baas	OL	Yes	No
3	Frank Gore	RB	Yes	Yes
3	Adam Snyder	OL	Yes	No
5	Ronald Fields	DL	No	No
5	Rasheed Marshall	WR	No	No
6	Derrick Johnson	DB	No	No
7	Daven Holly	DB	No	No
7	Marcus Maxwell	WR	No	No
7	Patrick Estes	TE	No	No
7	Billy Bajema	TE	Yes	No

Day 1? 4 picks, 4 starters, 1 Pro Bowler. Day 2? 7 picks, 1 starter, 0 Pro Bowlers. Enough said.

With regard to Pro Bowlers, however, the preferred drink is once again "Regime Cocktail." On Day 1, 14.3% of McNolan's picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers, which is slightly worse than the Pro-Bowl-likely Policy regime (20.0%), considerably better than Donahue (0.0%), and slightly better than Walsh II (9.1%). OK, correction: McNolan drinks Regime Cocktail only on Day 1. That's because, it has yet to pick a Day 2 Pro Bowler. Of course, it's not like the other two Pro-Bowl-unlikely regimes (Walsh II = 6.3%; Donahue = 5.3%) were much better at it.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has had a Walshian 40/60 split of picks between Day 1 and Day 2.
McNolan has been worse than Walsh II, but better than Donahue, at picking Day 1 starters.
McNolan has been far less successful than the other 3 regimes at picking Day 2 starters.
McNolan has been more successful than Walsh II and Donahue at picking Day 1 Pro Bowlers, but slightly worse than these two regimes at picking Day 2 Pro Bowlers.

ASSUME THE POSITION

Here's how McNolan has used its 35 picks by position, unit, and draft day:

Pos	Day 1	Day 2	Total
QB	1	0	1
RB	1	1	2
FB	0	0	0
WR	2	5	7
TE	1	2	3
OL	4	1	5
DL	2	5	7
LB	2	1	3
DB	1	6	7
K	0	0	0
P	0	0	0
OFF Total	9	9	18
DEF Total	5	12	17
ST Total	0	0	0
Total	14	21	35

Overall, McNolan has basically split their picks up evenly between units, which is more similar to what the Policy regime and Donahue did than Walsh II's need-induced DEF preference. Also, like Walsh, McNolan hasn't taken any ST players in the draft. Of course, that may have something to do with having Nedney and ROBO-PUNTER on the roster. What's most interesting here, however, is that, although OFF has received equal attention on Days 1 and 2, 70.6% of McNolan's DEF picks have come on Day 2.

The even split of OFF picks between draft days is a little misleading because McNolan was actually Walshian in 2005 and 2006 when it had to replace most of the OFF. Going back to that 2005 draft that I showed earlier, you'll notice that all 4 Day 1 picks were on OFF. This continued in 2006 when they selected TE Vernon Davis in the 1^st round after Johnson suffered a major injury the previous season. Essentially, McNolan followed the Walsh II example of spending Day 1 of rebuilding drafts addressing the most glaring positional needs. This is really eye-opening when you consider that Scot McCloughan claims to be a devout believer in "best player available." Is he full of sh*t or is the focus on need in Day 1 of the 2005 and 2006 drafts just a coincidence? I'll leave you to decide.

DEF, however, is a different animal altogether. From the table, it's clear that the draft day disparity on DEF has been due to an inordinate amount of Day 2 picks being spent on DLs and DBs. The 5 Day 2 DLs were, in order of selection, Ronald Fields, Parys Haralson, Melvin Oliver, Jay Moore, and Joe Cohen; the 6 Day 2 DBs were Derrick Johnson, Daven Holly, Marcus Hudson, Vickiel Vaughn, Goldson, and Tarell Brown. Looking at these lists, you could say that McNolan has gotten worse over time picking Day 2 DLs, whereas it's gotten better over time picking Day 2 DBs. Either way, aside from Haralson and Goldson, that's a pretty mediocre-at-best bunch. So, if you want to know why the DEF has sucked for so long (before Singletary pulled their heads out of their asses), look no further than McNolan mostly waiting until Day 2 to pick DEF players. Couple this with McNolan's aforementioned horrible starter rate on Day 2, and you get one wet, stinking heap of also-ran-ity.

With 71.4% of picks taken on Day 2, WR is another position at which McNolan has focused little Day 1 attention. The two Day 1 WRs were Brandon Williams and Jason Hill, both 3^rd-rounders.

Hopefully, you're starting to see a trend here. McNolan gets credit for using Walsh II's "pick for need on Day 1" and "bites at the apple" strategies. However, it's made the mistake of waiting until Day 2 to take most of their bites at DL, DB, and WR. Perhaps, then, one reason why the Niners haven't been able to get over the mediocre 7-9 hump since 2005 is because their WR, DL, and DB corps are populated with Day 2 picks.

To drive it home, here's one last point about McNolan's (lack of) success wtith DEF picks. On OFF, McNolan's starter rate (44.4%) has been similar to that of the Policy regime (43.8%), Walsh II (50.0%), and Donahue (46.2%). However, the DEF starter rates for the previous 3 regimes were 47.1% for Walsh II, 41.7% for Donahue, and 33.3% for the Policy regime. McNolan's? 23.5%!

All is not lost, however. Unlike Donahue, McNolan seems to have actually learned something about positional picks as its tenure has progressed. Namely, 2 of their 3 picks in 2008 were DEF players. Whether or not DL Kentwan Balmer and DB Reggie Smith pan out in the long run, at least McNolan seems to have noticed that their previous Day 1 picks on DEF have become integral parts of the starting unit. Don't believe me? Here they are: Lawson, Willis, and DL Ray McDonald. So, their results - 2 starters, 1 Pro Bowler, and an emerging pass-rush specialist - were not shabby at all. This suggests that (a) when McNolan commits Day 1 resources to DEF, it's been pretty successful; and (b) the regime seems to have figured this out. So, at the very least, kudos to them for that.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Walsh II, McNolan has focused its Day 1 picks on the most glaring positional needs (when it had to).
McNolan has employed Walsh II's "bites at the apple" strategy at WR, DL, and DB. However, they've primarily waited until Day 2 to take their bites.
Given their propensity for waiting until Day 2 for DEF picks, it's not surprising that McNolan has been horrible at drafting DEF starters.
Based on 2008, McNolan seems to have learned from their "wait until Day 2 for DEF" mistake.

CONFERENCE ROOM

So far, I've basically told a story about how the McNolan regime's drafts have been a little bit Walsh II, a little bit Donahue, and a little bit Policy; how they've used the good strategies as well as the bad. Basically, not too hot, not too cold; I'll call it "Goldilocks" if you will. The conference breakdown is where that tale ends. There's one regime's lead in particular that McNolan has been happy to follow, and I'm sure you'll easily be able to figure it out. Here's how McNolan's 35 picks shake out by conference: 7 ACC picks, 7 SEC picks, 6 Big 12 picks, 6 Pac-10 picks, 4 Big 10 picks, 1 Big East pick, 1 Conference USA pick, 1 MAC pick, 1 MAII pick, and 1 MWC pick.

BCS anyone? McNolan has taken a Donahue-esque 88.6% of its picks from BCS conferences. I already detailed in Part 2c what I think of this strategy, so you know by now that I don't like it. Now, Scot McCloughan has argued that he takes BCS players because they're (a) less affected by big crowds, (b) more prepared for the NFL, and (c) better team leaders. While all of these may be true in a general sense, the draft isn't about generalities. It's about identifying and acquiring specific talented players. I'm sorry, but when you limit your available talent pool to 6 or 7 college football conferences, you're going to miss the "diamonds in the rough" that teams need to sustain success. Also, McCloughan has made it seem like picking players from BCS conferences is only a Day 1 strategy. The stats say the opposite though: A higher percentage of McNolan's Day 2 picks have come from BCS conferences (90.5%) than have its Day 2 picks (88.6%). Oh, and did I mention that McNolan's first pick ever was a QB from a non-BCS conference (Smith), and that they traded up in 2007 to take an OL from a non-BCS conference (Joe Staley)? That's 2 of McNolan's 4 non-BCS picks being taken with 1^st-round picks. Again, is he BSing us here or is this some kind of smokescreen? It's pretty interesting how a general BCS guy like McCloughan can fall in love so much with specific non-BCS players.

And now, I present a second way in which McNolan's conference preferences are similar to Donahue's: They suck just as bad at picking BCS players despite being so BCS-reliant. Wait, let me correct that. They suck even worse. Here's the evidence:

McNolan
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	10	2	12
No	21	2	23
Total	31	4	35

Donahue
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	12	1	13
No	13	1	14
Total	25	2	27

You'll recall from Part 2c that Donahue's BCS starter rate (48.0%) was worse than Walsh II's (62.5%) even though Donahue was much more BCS-heavy with his picks. Well, even Donahue's sorry BCS starter rate makes him look like a draft maven when compared to McNolan's. That's because, as the table shows, only 32.3% of McNolan's BCS picks have become regular 49er starters! As I said in Part 2c, if you're going to be limiting your talent pool so drastically, you better be good at evaluating the talent you don't ignore. Clearly, McNolan has not been good in this regard, and has been even worse than the guy for which I invented the argument.

Now, I argued in Part 2c that Donahue's preference for BCS players and lack of success in actually picking good ones was borne out of his dispositional laziness and inattention to draft detail. With respect to McNolan, however, I'm sure this hasn't been the case. To its credit, the McNolan regime has been almost pathologically engaged in draft preparation. After all, they coached the Senior Bowl 3 straight seasons, Scot McLoughan was Director of College Scouting for the Seahawks, and Scot's brother, David, now serves in the same capacity for the 49ers. So I'm kind of perplexed as to why, given their affinity for evaluating college talent, McNolan has shied away from non-BCS players. One might argue that it's because of the Alex Smith experience. However, as has been noted, McLoughan remains a big Smith supporter. So what gives here? Please help.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Donahue, almost every player McNolan has drafted has been from a BCS conference.
Despite its BCS-lust, the McNolan regime has had an even worse BCS starter rate than Donahue.

GENERAL ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION

As I've alluded to throughout this article, the McNolan drafts can be described by one word: Goldilocks. In other words, their porridge hasn't been too hot and it hasn't been too cold; just lukewarm. Here's the evidence:

McNolan's draft contexts have been a mixture of its 3 predecessors' contexts.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's "draft vs. free agency" bias.
McNolan's stockpiled picks in rebuilding drafts ala Walsh II, but also traded away picks in "we feel good about ourselves right now" drafts ala the Policy regime.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's Day1/Day 2 split.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of Day 1 starter and Pro Bowl rate.
McNolan has evenly split their picks between OFF and DEF overall.
McNolan's used Walsh's "bites at the apple" strategy, but only on Day 2.
McNolan's been on par with previous regimes in terms of picking OFF starters.
Though it's made Donahue-esque draft strategy errors, McNolan's either learned from those mistakes or has a more valid reason for why they've made them.

All in all, it sure seems like the McNolan regime has been a mixture of the good and bad of the 3 previous 49er regimes. They rebuilt like Walsh II in 2005 and 2006, but they sat on their laurels like Donahue and the Policy regime in 2007. They draft for need on Day 1 like Walsh II, but, like Donahue, only when they have to. They take a lot of bites at the apple like Walsh, but they wait until Day 2 to do it. You get the picture.

To me, understanding the Goldilocks nature of McNolan drafts helps explain why the 49ers have been stuck in "no better than 7-9" mode for the past 3 seasons. If you draft a propensity of mediocre players, or if you have a bunch of mediocre drafts, you're going to find yourself having a mediocre team. Here, another word comes to mind that has been used - with great comic effect - to describe McNolan: vanilla.

In evaluating the 4 Niner regimes since 1994, something has become very clear to me; something that I didn't fully realize until I got to McNolan. Bill Walsh was the only 49er GM in the past 15 years who went out and tried to be great in the draft. He's the only one who tried to bat 1.000 every time he stepped to the plate. The Policy regime was content to sustain success through free agency, Donahue was content to ride the coattails of Walsh II's drafts, and McNolan has been content to only be great on Day 1. Is it any wonder then that the Walsh II regime was the only one that had an upward win trajectory? Is it a coincidence that Walsh was the only GM to leave the 49ers better off than when he arrived? I mean, the 49ers regressed under the Policy regime and Donahue, and they've stagnated in 7-9 territory under McNolan. After reading my regime breakdowns, do you have any doubt that one important reason for this is because Walsh II's draft strategy differed so drastically from that of McNolan, Donahue, and the Policy regime? In re McNolan, do you think that the "hybrid" defense, not giving Hill the QB job outright, and not firing Nolan after 2007 can be described by any other word except "vanilla?"

Whether it's McSingle nee McNolan or someone else, until the person/people in charge of running the 49ers' drafts stop placing artificial constraints on themselves, and start trying to be great with every pick- by whatever means necessary - I fear the Niners are going to wallow in mediocrity.

Here's a perfect example of what I mean. The Niners need a pass rusher right now more than anything. Go out and draft the best damned pass rusher. If the consensus best pass rusher isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the pass rusher you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the Calfornia Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK pass rusher and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

Another example. Right now, you have an arguable draft bust, a good but ragged-armed journeyman, and a player KC didn't even want as your QBs. Go out and draft the best damned QB. Do whatever it takes. If the consensus best QB isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the QB you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the California Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK QB and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

You know what team drafts like this? The New England Patriots. But that's Part 3, so you'll have to wait until tomorrow to hear the details. For now, here's the idiot's guide to the McNolan regime's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks when your team sucks, but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.
BCS or die!
We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).

So, based on this strategy, as well as some specific draft history trends that you can find in my Excel spreadsheet, here's what (and what not) to expect from the 49ers in the 2009 draft:

Don't expect them to take more than 1 player from a non-BCS conference.
Don't expect them to take a pass rusher, QB, or WR at #10.
Don't expect them to take a RB on Day 1.
Expect them to take a WR or two on Day 2.
Expect them to take an OL on Day 1.
Expect more DEF picks (esp. DLs and DBs) on Day 2 than Day 1.
Don't expect them to take a FB, K, or P.

Remember, this is what I expect them to do or not do based on their history. If they end up going against tendency, it's not because the tendencies were wrongly identified. It's because they did something that was unexpected given their history. And there's no harm in that. It's actually worked once or twice (See Willis, Patrick).

That's it for now. Tomorrow, I'll compare the overall 49er draft strategy since 1994, which I identified in Part 1, to that of the Patriots. TO BE CONTINUED...

¹ DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How much blame would you assign McNolan's drafts for the 49ers continuously being unable to take that next step in recent seasons?

All of the blame

37 votes

Most of the blame

83 votes

Some of the blame

103 votes

None of the blame

9 votes

232 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: Marvelous, simply marvelous.

Ninjames — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 08:39:56 -0000

Good morning all, James here, etc etc. I'm really tired right now, but for once a bit has happened in 49erland. Most of it you've already seen around the site (most likely) and if not, well I've got some links for you. A bit about Marvel Smith signing, the new uniforms, all interesting reads. Beyond that, there's not much, I may have a few general articles, opinions, but those are normal. Should always read them, though. As always, if I've missed something (very likely today as I'm kind of in a hurry) please feel free to post the link in the comments section, it'd be very appreciated. Thanks, and enjoy your news for the day.

As you probably know already, we've added a fourth Smith to the roster, OT Marvel Smith, and we've released OT Jonas Jennings. (PressDemocrat.com)

The 49ers are unveiling new uniforms on April 25th. Yay? (PressDemocrat.com)

Do you think that the Marvel Smith signing helps the 49ers at all? I'm still not sold on it. (MVN.com)

Though, I do agree he gives us some flexibility in the draft. I don't want a tackle in the first round at all, really. (ESPN.com)

Yesterday's edition of McCloughan's Mailbag. (49ers.com)

A former GM has us picking QB Mark Sanchez with the tenth pick. Ugh. (SacBee.com)

Golden Nuggets: Ok, now to actually pursue an OT.

Ninjames — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:39:00 -0000

Good morning everyone, James here. The 49ers have entered their first day of "voluntary" minicamp. We've got a ton of articles on that, so there's a lot of repetition but I've done my best to include the best ones, i.e different information and opinions from the "good writers." There's not much other than the minicamp and me celebrating for the non-return of T Jonas Jennings. Anyway, there's a fine amount of links, not a ton, but give me a break. I have more to do with my life than read about the Niners!... Ok, well no, I really don't. Well you're the one reading what I post, so hah. Either way, sorry for that, here's some good links for you. All of them, they're all good.

The Niners finally part ways with T Jonas Jennings. This is good, the guy had talent (or so I hear) but he was always injured. We need something more stable at the position, I've personally been sick of our offensive line play the past two seasons. (SFGate.com)

Six months to go until the new season... It seems so far! (SFGate.com)

A look at OC Jimmy Raye, and what he brings to the team. (PressDemocrat.com)

A look at the positions and what we've got to work with going into minicamp. (MVN.com)

A 49ers area scout takes a look at pro days. (49ers.com)

An article on WR Josh Morgan. I hope this guy does great things next season. (49ers.com)

Words of advice for Mike Singletary. (MercuryNews.com)

I actually have more for you, I'll return and post them asap.

OT Marvel Smith in town: Implications

Fooch — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:00:10 -0000

As is being reported all over the place, Steelers free agent OT Marvel Smith is scheduled to come to town today for a visit. Smith will be 31 in August, but more importantly, has had a disc injury in his back that has shelved for 15 games the past two seasons. He had lower back surgery in December 2007, and ended up on IR for a sizable chunk of last season. Rotoworld even went so far as to say that more than likely Smith has failed several physicals in free agent visits this offseason.

Smith was a Pro Bowler in 2005, so he definitely brings some talent to the table. Of course, Jonas Jennings did too but he was more fragile than any antique. I'm working under the assumption that the physical won't go so well tomorrow, but in the meantime, here's a scouting report on the big fella:

Smith can recover pretty well if initially beaten, but isn't extremely fluid. He has heavy hands, shoots them with power and uncoils very quickly. He has excellent size and enough strength to move bigger defensive ends off the ball.
. . .
He picks up blitzes cleanly and has a very good understanding of the game and his position. Smith packs a powerful punch and places it well. He is still a plus athlete as offensive tackles go and can get out to the second level or pull effectively.
. . .
He is a good run blocker, but not overly explosive and will not simply blow people off the ball. High end speed rushers give him trouble, because his quickness out of his stance and overall agility is just average for a left tackle.

Smith was playing left tackle for the Steelers but started his career as a right tackle. If the 49ers could get a healthy version of Smith they'd be in a much more flexible position with the #10 pick. They could go in just about any direction with the pick, up to and including trades.

At the same time, if Smith manages to pass his physical, I think you still draft a young right tackle. Maybe not with the 10th pick, but I think one of your higher picks could be used for depth there. The offensive line has had numerous injury issues the last few years, so clearly it would not be a poor choice. In reality, given the age and injury issues, I don't know how much this really changes your draft strategy.

I wouldn't expect them to give Smith a huge deal. Back when they opened up the safe for Jennings, he was 27. I'd think we'd find out pretty quickly how the physical goes. On the one hand, if Smith passes the physical, I think you try and lock him up real quick. On the other hand, if he does in fact pass the physical, you have to wonder what happened with the other teams.

I think the best way to describe my opinion of this right now would be "wary." Of course, given Smith's recent injury history, "pessimistic" might be a better word.