SB Nation - Zak Keasey

Projecting the 49ers 53-man roster #2

Fooch — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:00:18 -0000

Approximately six weeks ago I rolled out my initial projection of the 49ers 53-man roster. While there is still plenty of preseason football to be played, I thought a couple weeks of training camp and a preseason game is enough time to consider revisions to our 53-man roster projection.

I have to admit that this has gotten really difficult to figure out given some of the injuries and the Michael Crabtree holdout. Brandon Jones is out until early October with his shoulder injury and Zak Keasey is out for 8-10 weeks with his forearm injury. Neither player can go on the PUP list since they passed physicals at the start of training camp. I think that means Keasey is likely to be cut at some point soon and potentially placed on injured reserve if he clears waivers (if I'm getting the rules correct).

Then there's Crabtree. Given his holdout he's still not a member of the 49ers. That basically means we'll come up with a list of 54 players because once Crabtree is signed, he'd have to go on the 53-man roster and somebody would need to be cut. At this point Crabtree is not included in this projection. After the jump we discuss that impact among other things.

Also, I've underlined new additions to the 53-man roster.

Offense
QB (3): Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Nate Davis
RB (4): Frank Gore, Glen Coffee, Michael Robinson, Kory Sheets
FB (1): Moran Norris
WR (6): Isaac Bruce, Brandon Jones, Josh Morgan, Jason Hill, Arnaz Battle, Dominique Zeigler
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Bear Pascoe
LT (2): Joe Staley, Alex Boone
LG (1): David Baas
C (2): Eric Heitmann, Cody Wallace
RG (2): Chilo Rachal, Tony Wragge
RT (2): Adam Snyder, Marvel Smith

Defense
DE (5): Justin Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Demetric Evans, Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean-Francois***
DT (1): Aubrayo Franklin
OLB (4): Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks, Marques Harris
ILB (4): Patrick Willis, Takeo Spikes, Jeff Ulbrich, Scott McKillop
CB (5): Nate Clements, Dre Bly, Tarell Brown, Shawntae Spencer, Marcus Hudson
FS (2): Dashon Goldson, Mark Roman
SS (2): Michael Lewis, Reggie Smith

Special Teams
K: Joe Nedney
P: Andy Lee
LS: Brian Jennings
KR/PR: Allen Rossum

Last 5 on: Ahmad Brooks, Kory Sheets, Dominique Zeigler, Ricky Jean-Francois, Alex Boone

First 5 off: Jay Moore, ~~Barry Sims~~ Curtis Taylor, Micheal Spurlock, Damon Huard, Brit Miller

***Ray McDonald is on the PUP list and would need a spot on the roster at some point in the season. Replacement TBD

After the jump I take a look at some of the changes and some of the notable omissions. After you've read that over, feel free to tear me a new one on some of these selections.

There are a few players that are giving me all sorts of trouble. Let's start at wide receiver. Once Crabtree signs, who do you cut? The quick thought is to get rid of one of the receivers (either Zeigler or Battle). However, if Crabtree signs before the season starts, or even that first week or two, Brandon Jones will not be back yet. Given that Crabtree has a ton of ground to make up, I don't think you want to cut a guy who's been playing since day 1. So who exactly do you get rid of to make room for Crabtree on the 53-man roster?

Quarterback
I'm a bit conflicted here, but I think it's just that initial rush of a good performance from Damon Huard. If Nate Davis doesn't get much playing time, can the team afford to have him sitting at #3 if they elect to waive Damon Huard? Or is this an indication that Huard isn't going anywhere and they might actually keep 4 QBs? Given the injury issues, can this team afford to give a roster space to a 4th quarterback at this point?

Running Backs
The season ending injury to Thomas Clayton helps Kory Sheets, but doesn't guarantee anything. I kept Sheets on the roster, but I actually am thinking that his real "nemisis" for a roster spot is Micheal Spurlock. Spurlock has shown a good bit of potential and has been getting moved around all over the field, including in the wildcat/taser formation. At this point, I think either Spurlock or Sheets makes the roster, but not both.

Fullback
Close to 2/3 of you think Brit Miller will make the 53-man roster for week 1 of the regular season. I'm not quite comfortable adding him in yet given the presence of Moran Norris and Michael Robinson. At the same time, I've elevated him to first 5 off the roster. Miller will see a whole lot of playing time and if he puts up similar performances in the coming weeks, he might bump somebody off the roster. Who that would be exactly, I'm not so sure.

Offensive Tackle
I succumbed to the pressure and replaced Barry Sims with Alex Boone. Sims did perfectly reasonable in his backup role last week, but consider me on the upside bandwagon of Boone. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised with any outcome in this battle. However, as I said before, it's going to be either Boone or Sims, not both, on the roster.

Miscellaneous
I thought I'd close with a few miscellaneous thoughts on other roster spots. I added in RJF with McDonald on the PUP list, but I think RJF is still in a tenuous position at this point. He'll need to build on last weekend's performance. I moved Jay Moore off my projection, and went with Marques Harris. Harris has experience in the Manusky defense and that veteran presence would likely give him an edge. And Moore retains practice squad eligibility.

NFL Network plays a cruel prank on yours truly

Fooch — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 15:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Sanchez - AP

Browse more photos »

I was down in San Diego this weekend for a wedding, so I planned on recording the Friday night 49ers-Broncos preseason matchup. For some reason I forgot about the local network broadcast of the game and set my DVR to record the NFL Network broadcast. I got back from San Diego yesterday afternoon, grabbed some food and kicked back to watch the game. At first they were airing the end of an earlier game. I began fast-forwarding and suddenly was being confronted by images of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, followed by the Raiders-Cowboys game.

Yes, for some reason the NFL Network switched it up and decided to show the Cowboys and Raiders and NOT the 49ers and Broncos. I realize this is only the preseason, but given the two teams involved, could it have been a worse matchup to record instead of the 49ers?

This leaves us with some short-term good and bad news. The good news is that the NFL Network re-aired the game from 10pm to 1am last night and I got it recorded (and it's not the Raiders game again!) The bad news is that my plan for this morning was too post an update on all positional battles, or maybe a new 53-man roster projection. Given the change in recordings, that stuff is postponed a day or so while I finally watch the game.

In the meantime, to get the chit-chat rolling, I thought we could focus the early conversation on two topics. First, the kick in the junk that was my situation above with the NFL Network. Just a cruel joke if you ask me. But more on-field product related, the second topic is fullback Brit Miller.

As I can only view the statistics right now, he certainly made a splash with his two touchdown receptions. As Thomas Clayton would tell you, preseason statistics aren't necessarily an indicator of a roster spot (too soon?). When I get to watching the game I'd imagine I'll be able to get a better idea of his performance, but for now, I'd like to hear what other folks think. Miller was probably a long shot to make the roster heading into training camp, but things have certainly improved for him. Robinson was getting playing time at fullback before going down with a groin injury.

More importantly, last Friday saw Zak Keasey go down for up to 8-10 weeks with a broken forearm (according to Mike Singletary - yesterday's transcript after the jump). Keasey was no lock to make the roster, but his special teams prowess definitely helped his chances. Singletary indicated Robinson remains day-to-day, but made no mention of Moran Norris. No matter what, Miller is probably going to see quite a bit of playing time this week and beyond. While a roster spot is far from guaranteed, Miller has been placed in a position to take a roster spot.

Oh, and I finally started watching the game. LOVE the jerseys.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Walk-Thru - 08-16-09
San Francisco 49ers

On describing the purpose of walk-thrus:
"It’s to get back into the flow. The guys had yesterday off, and so you come back, you look at the film, you correct the mistakes, you come out here and go through some of the mistakes. It’s an opportunity to come back together. We’ve got a test later on today and then tomorrow, we go back to work again. So, it’s just bringing it back to football. A lot of times when guys have time off, they get away. You just have to bring them back like, ‘okay guys, here we go. This is what we’re here for and let’s get ready to go tomorrow.’"

On what he did yesterday on the day off:
"I got away. Every chance that I get with my family, I make sure that I don’t forget the big picture as well."

On adding more running backs to the training camp roster:
"Right now we’re just going to kind of play it day-to-day. We’ve got a fullback coming in and we will see. I guess in the next few days we will see what we have already and if we can go with that or if we have to add somebody, we will, but we will just take it as we go."

On the loss of running back Thomas Clayton:
"It’s always unfortunate when you lose anyone that’s trying to make a football team. He’s just a guy that really works hard. He gives you everything that he has on every down and we know that he had high hopes of being part of the team. When someone like that goes down, it’s always a difficult thing to see. So, we’ll just have to rehabilitate the knee and go from there."

On if there are any thoughts to bring Thomas Clayton back:
"That’s too far down the road to begin to talk about ‘should we bring him back? Should we do this or whatever?’ We’re going to let him get healthy first."

On other teams around the league asking about Clayton:
"It’s hard to miss him. When you look at him, he’s the kind of guy that everything that he’s doing you know that he’s going as fast as he can go, he’s going as hard as he can go and he’s just one of those guys that when you look on him on film, you know that you’re going to get everything that he has on every play. Every team is looking for somebody that will do that."

On what he thought of Scott McKillop’s performance in the pre season game:
"I see a young guy that’s trying to have the game slow down for him. He continues to work on his technique and all of the little things that he needs to do in order to make this football team and make a contribution in his first year. He’s trying to make calls – so right now, the game is big for him, not too big, but it’s big, and for him, he’s trying to get it to slow down a bit so that he can get his eyes in the right place and get the correct reads. I think right now that’s the biggest thing for him. He is a guy that is making progress each day, and the more time goes by, the better he’ll get."

On watching the game film from Friday and his thoughts:
"It wasn’t much different from what I saw Friday night, I mean, it was okay. I think that we can get a lot better. It’s not bad for a start, but I just think that it’s really important for us that we set the tempo. I think it’s important for us to make sure that we don’t play to our opponent’s level, whatever that might be. We want to go out and set the level of tempo so high that they have to adjust to us and I think that’s important for us to stay focused on."

On noticing the physical play of running back Glen Coffee:
"I just know that he’s a tough guy. He’s a physical guy. He’s a tough runner. Once he gets past the line of scrimmage, he makes great cuts. He’s got decent vision down the field. I think the biggest thing that sticks out with him is that he doesn’t play like a rookie and [also] doesn’t carry himself like a rookie. He’s a guy that when he goes out to play, he plays with an attitude. Very tough kid, so that’s exciting to see."

On critiquing the play of safety Curtis Taylor:
"Curtis played okay. I talked to him earlier today about the way he played. I think that for the ability that he has and him being a big of a guy as he is and being as physically gifted as he is, I want to see more out of him. I want to see him bring more of the physicality. I know that he has a lot of speed for a guy his size to really make plays on the field, but it’s about coming down in the box and making a play. Being physical on a receiver, running back or fullback trying to take you out of a play, how do you respond to that. I want to see more of that going forward."

On injury updates concerning linebacker Patrick Willis:
"I’m thankful to get Patrick [Willis] back. Even though he’s back out here, I’m still going to keep my eyes on him and make sure that things are going the way that they should go, but I’m very excited to have him back. He adds a lot to our defense. He adds a lot of excitement. It’s kind of like bringing back the completion of our defensive unit."

On injury updates concerning fullback Zak Keasey:
"I think that we talked about 8 -10 weeks for him with the fracture and we just have to hope that he heals properly and go from there."

On Patrick Willis and other injured players returning to practice Monday:
"[Patrick] Willis will be back tomorrow. I think that we get Delanie [Walker] back. I think that Tarell Brown will be back. He will be running again and we just have to monitor that day-to-day. Other than that, I think that’s it."

On the status of guard David Baas and running back Michael Robinson:
"Baas is still a day-to-day situation right now. We’re monitoring that very closely, but he’s making good progress. Robinson is the same thing. I think that he’s day-to-day situation as well."

On the process of placing running back Thomas Clayton on waivers:
"I just want to say right now that we’re going to talk about it a little bit more in terms of how we want to handle that situation and we will go from there, but we haven’t talked about that exactly yet."

On any thoughts of the quarterback rotation for the upcoming game versus the Oakland Raiders:
"No. "

On his familiarity with Oakland Raiders President Al Davis:
"Oh yeah, I know him, but not well."

On going up against the Raiders in his career:
"Only as a player. Al Davis has always had a reputation of being a coach, a [general manager], or an owner on the field that when the opposing team came on the field, he treated them as if they were on his team. You know, ‘Hey, how are you doing. Hey, what’s going on?’ He was very friendly, very nice, so I remember that and that was always different. The Raiders were the only team in the league that treated you like you were friends. Before the game, they treated you very well. Before the game, everything after that was downhill."

Poll

Will Brit Miller make the 49ers 53-man roster for week 1?

Yes

303 votes

No

159 votes

462 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: Work to Do!

Ninjames — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 10:45:32 -0000

Morning everyone, James here with your Nuggets for the day. I know what you're thinking: "Are the Nuggets coming up at 4 from now on?" I know you're thinking this because OBVIOUSLY there are a ton of you who get on at exactly 3 AM Pacific just to read what I have to say--the answer is no, I've just been very busy lately. They'll be back an hour earlier starting um... well, looking at the clock, starting tomorrow seeing as I'm typing this at 3:25. That being said I have a decent amount of links for you today, and if I start to cry a little about Clayton's ACL tear well, I apologize. On to the links, enjoy!

Here's an analysis of the 49ers' first offensive drive, with Shaun Hill at the helm. Pretty good stuff, methinks. All except for Keasey, who I cant seem to find a soft spot for anymore. (SFGate.com)

After that game, there is still no winner, or for that matter, front runner in the quarterback competition in San Francisco. (SacBee.com)

HB Thomas Clayton tore his ACL. Now, I'm not crazy and even through my adoration I can see that Kory Sheets did a serviceable job last night. I wont mind having him on the roster in place of Clayton. (ProFootballTalk.com)

RT Adam Snyder seemed to impress Mike Singletary--which is good because he impressed me to. Wragge on the other hand... (PressDemocrat.com)

Here's what Singletary had to say the day after the game. (That's yesterday, folks.) (PressDemocrat.com)

Not too sure I understand the "hurt themselves" portion of this Team Report, but Manny Lawson only saw a few snaps, I cant judge him just yet. (MercuryNews.com)

Singletary says we've got work to do. (Yahoo.com)

Are the Denver Bronco's a poor measuring stick to judge just how good we are? Probably. (SFGate.com)

The quarterback battle is "heating up." Which is odd because I don't see any increase in.. well, suffice to say I don't see how it's heating up when literally nothing has changed and neither side stepped it up. (SFGate.com)

Jed York is still confident that the 49ers will reach an agreement with WR Michael Crabtree. I'm not holding my breath. (SFGate.com)

Thumbs up and Thumbs down for the game against Denver. (Scout.com)

To finish, Maiocco has a player-by-player recap from the game with the Broncos. (PressDemocrat.com)

Shaun Hill and Glenn Coffee to start Friday versus Denver

Fooch — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 22:05:15 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Browse more photos »

While the 49ers have not named their starter for the regular season, the 49ers would seem to have shown their hand just a little bit (Singletary's words to the contrary). In his press conference today (transcript after the jump), Coach Mike Singletary announced that Shaun Hill will start the game tomorrow night at quarterback versus the Denver Broncos.

It's not the most shocking news in the world and Singletary played it off as a toss up between the two and "[d]on't read anything into it." Of course, if we didn't read anything into it, well that'd be just plain boring! Last year was certainly a little easier to read into when J.T. O'Sullivan was named QB, but we can still make some moderately educated guesses at this point.

Singletary did not indicate how long Hill would play but he did state that Alex Smith would get some time with the first team offense to keep the competition fair. I definitely think that's perfectly reasonable idea.

Elsewhere, there are some interesting starters. Glen Coffee is getting the start at running back with Frank Gore sitting out the game. At this point it's a good idea given how hard it sounds like Gore has been working in training camp. No need to get him hurt.

Isaac Bruce joins Gore on the sideline in what seems like a veteran courtesy. David Baas and Michael Robinson remain out and it sounds like Moran Norris is out as well, with Zak Keasey getting the start at fullback.

Transcripts for Mike Singletary and Shaun Hill after the jump...

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-practice – 8-13-09
San Francisco 49ers

On the quarterback rotation for Friday’s preseason game:
"Shaun Hill will start the game. I do not know who will start next week. It really could have been Shaun Hill or Alex Smith and we chose Shaun Hill. Don’t read anything into it."

On how much Hill will play:
"Right now we are just going to get into the flow of the game and see where it goes. I think the flow will dictate, more or less, how much he will get to play."

On who will start at running back Friday:
"[Glen] Coffee will start."

On whether Zak Keasey will start at fullback:
"Yes."

On who is winning the quarterback competition:
"It is kind of like I have been saying, I don’t care about today. What I care about is at the end of it. One can go a little bit ahead and a little bit behind, but in all fairness to them, the only thing I want to comment on is when we know who it is. In terms of who is ahead, who is not, it really doesn’t matter right now for us."

On whether QB Nate Davis will play Friday:
"He may take some snaps, but once again it depends on the flow of the game. We’d like to see him get some snaps."

On how pleased he is with the quarterbacks’ play in camp:
"If we were really pleased we would have one. We would say, ‘that’s the guy.’ But, I am pleased with the progression they are making. They’re continuing to make progress in all the little things they are doing. I am pleased about that. We will be really excited when the time comes to announce who that guy is."

On who will sit out of Friday’s preseason game:
"Obviously, some of the injured guys you already know about, those guys will not play. Isaac Bruce will not play. Frank Gore will not play. Other than that, there will be some guys limited as we go forward, but that is the plan now, outside of the guys who are injured."

On whether Gore was willing to sit out of the game:
"Frank is smart enough to know when we tell him we want Coffee to play, Frank will just back off. He’s good. He has been working his tail off out here. He knows that we know that I think this is the smart thing for us to do."

On whether Gore will play at all this preseason:
"I’m sure he will. Yes. I don’t know at all about LaDanian Tomlinson, but I do know he [Gore] will play some this preseason."

On why the team responds so well to him:
"I think the most important thing is that I am just being myself. I think that is why I can be consistent, because that is all I know. I talked to them the other day and told them I wish I could do something else. I wish I was a little bit smarter in this area. But this is who I am. This is what you get. I’m just going to continue to do that. I’m going to continue to play and continue to work hard. I’m going to continue to build relationships with our coaches and players, and we’ll go from there."

On whether his love of the game rubs off on his players:
"When someone is passionate about something, it is something you can’t hide. I know the guys know that I love the game. I have a tremendous respect for the game and what it has done for me and my family. I’m sure that is a small part of it."

On RB Michael Robinson’s and G David Baas’ injuries:
"It’s a day-to-day thing."

On why he is being so careful with injured guys:
"That comes from the relationship with Fergie [Jeff Ferguson], our trainer, and the relationship with the doctors. I tell the players, ‘when you tell us something, we believe that. I’m not going to assume anything. If you’re hurt, you’re hurt.’ Fergie has to make that decision. Some guys want to get out there and Fergie says, ‘Coach, I don’t think it’s time.’ Then it’s not happening because I know players are all about energy and emotion and the doctors and trainers are all about wisdom. That is the route we are going to take."

On whether LB Patrick Willis will play Friday:
"Patrick is a no. He is not going to play. He is doing great. He wants to play, he just talked to me about it over there, but it is not happening. Hopefully we will get him back Monday or Tuesday and we will go from there."

On what is wrong with Willis:
"It is just a little sore ankle. Everything else is fine."

On what he expects to learn from Friday’s preseason game:
"It just depends on how the game goes. There are some preseason games that tell you a lot. There are other preseason games you look at and they are kind of hard to get a gauge on. I think tomorrow night will give us a nice first step, a good indication of where we are."

On whether Alex Smith will get to work with the No. 1 offense Friday:
"He will get work with the ones, in order to keep it fair."

On whether Adam Snyder is currently the starting right tackle:
"I would say he is still competing, but he has done a good job of really making strides to be the starter. But I really want to leave him there at right tackle and let him play and let him develop. I really want to try to stay away from moving him around because he is such a good athlete. He has such flexibility in terms of what he can do and what he can play. That can be good and bad for the player. And, in his instance, I think it’s not a very good thing. He’s just continuing to develop, and I’m very excited about what I’m seeing."

On whether the flow of the game will determine how long the first team will stay in the game:
"Pretty much, it is set. We’re pretty much going to go by number of plays, unless, once again, you’re right. The flow will dictate that. Hopefully it works out in our favor in terms of going with the numbers that we want to run and the exposure we want to give our players."

On how many snaps he wants the quarterbacks to take:
"We’ll talk about it some more. I don’t really want to get into that, but we’ll talk about it some more."

On whether he has a certain script of plays he’s looking to run:
"I think offensively and defensively we’re going to do what we do. It’s one of those things where I know what they’re going to do defensively. I know Coach [Mike] Nolan, and Mike is going to bring the house. That’s Mike, and I don’t expect anything else. He’s going to play his defense. I don’t mean he’s going to blitz us to death, but he’s going to run his defense. I know we can expect that. Offensively, we’ll just have to see how much they want to get into their playbook."

On whether Snyder is exceeding his expectations:
"I think for Snyder, he’s just doing what he said he was going to do. He told me at the end of the season, and some this offseason, ‘Coach, if you leave me at right tackle and let me develop there, you’ll see I’ll be a much better football player.’ That’s what he’s doing."

Quarterback Shaun Hill
Post-practice – 8-13-09
San Francisco 49ers

On his reaction to starting the first preseason game:
"Obviously, I’m just excited to get out there and play again. I agree that there’s no reason to read into this in any way. Obviously, starting the first preseason game isn’t the final goal. It’s to start every regular season game and go from there. I’m just excited for the opportunity to get out there and play again."

On whether the coaches have indicated how much he will play in the first preseason game:
"No. I haven’t gotten a word on that either."

On whether he’s too far involved to assess the quarterback race and whether he thinks it’s even so far:
"Yes, I guess. I mean, like you said, I’m probably too far involved to sit there and judge. I’m my own biggest critic and I don’t sit there and try to dwell on what Alex has done. So, it’d be impossible for me to say exactly how even it is. You guys would probably have a better perspective on that than I would."

On what he hopes to accomplish in the game tomorrow:
"Well, I hope that every drive that I’m out there, drive the team down there and score touchdowns. That’s ultimately the goal and that’s what I’m focusing on."

On whether he feels the need to prove he can throw the ball downfield:
"No, I have to approach the game taking what they give me. If the deep ball is available, I have to take it. But, I can’t go out there and force something downfield just for the sake of proving to people that I can throw the deep ball. So, I’m very focused on playing within myself, and I feel like I’ve proven when I do that, what I have is sufficient."

On whether he can get a good gauge on where he’s at from playing in a preseason game:
"It is tough to get an accurate reading on where we are. But, it is nice to go out there and play against somebody else, another defense. Obviously, we don’t game plan, necessarily, for preseason games. We don’t know exactly what we’re going to see from these guys. But, what it does is really make us think about our rules and the way we have introduced our offensive system. So, we’ll get a good gauge on where we are in that."

On when Mike Singletary told him he would be starting the preseason game:
"To be honest with you, I just found out, probably, around the same time you guys did."

On whether that was this morning:
"Yes."

On what Mike Singletary told him:
"Actually, he did not."

On how he learned he would be the starter:
"On my way out here."

On the level of excitement in the locker room and how everybody is looking forward to the season:
"Obviously, everybody is very excited. When you’ve been facing each other and going as hard as we have been at each other, you’re very excited to see a different uniform lined up across from you. There is a lot of excitement and optimism in that locker room heading into the season, without a doubt."

Golden Nuggets: Right to it

Ninjames — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:23:54 -0000

Good morning folks, getting these links up a little late, but I'm in a huge hurry at the moment. Originally, I had typed up a big notice about Thomas Clayton and what not for this intro but suffice to say this: if I say anything about Clayton, Zeigler, or Keasey--ignore it. Thanks. Anyway, I'm going to get right into the links..

Barrows continues his roster analysis by looking at a few of the outside linebackers. (SacBee.com)

The 49ers announced their training camp schedule--here's a look at the details for the open practices (as well as a swanky practice with the Raiders--again.) (SFGate.com)

Here's the full schedule. (MercuryNews.com)

New bill could allow the 49ers to select their own stadium contractor. (MercuryNews.com)

So, is there hope for the Niners this year? There [site decorum] well better be. (PressDemocrat.com)

Nedney praises Steve McNair. (49ers.com)

Golden Nuggets: Move over Norris and Keasey? HAH!

Ninjames — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:00:19 -0000

Good morning folks. James here with your Nuggets for the day. A bit of... carelessness on my part yesterday, I completely forgot to do the links. Didn't even cross my mind, sorry everyone! We had a few links, too... Any way, I'll post the links that should have been posted yesterday along with what I should be posting today. Still, there's not a lot but there's enough to tide you over until the next edition (I hope.) Of interest is mainly the article on Alex Boone, did anybody ever watch him in college? I only caught him once or twice but I was impressed to say the least. He should be a good addition to this team, provided he can win a roster spot. I think I'd rather have him than Marvel Smith.

A memorial service is planned for one of the original members of the 49ers. (49ers.com)

A look at OT Alex Boone, a guy I sincerely hope wins the RT spot this coming season. Maybe not right from the beginning, but I think he has a lot of talent and an extremely high ceiling. Here's to hoping we have a solid line next season.. (SFGate.com)

Joe Montana scores again. An article about a construction bid or something of the sort, I'll admit I didn't read it. (NBCBayArea.com)

Move over Moran Norris and Zak Keasey? Yeah, right. You all most likely have already read about the 49ers signing a new FB (converted from LB) but the beginning of this article is just great. Keasey's place on special teams should be solidified, and Moran Norris is a certified beast. Seeing him in person, man, I didn't realize how big he was. I'm projecting Miller to provide just about nothing to the 49ers this coming season. (SFGate.com)

Hm.. Not too sure what I think of this article. I mean, I've always enjoyed the preseason. Am I the only one here at NN that this applies to? I get to see my man Thomas Clayton shred defenders like nobody's business! (PressDemocrat.com)

Dre Bly says he was the scapegoat in Denver. Personally, I want to see Bly battle Terrel Brown, who I believe has the tools and skills to be our number 2 CB. (NFL.com)

San Francisco 49ers--Monitoring Team Needs--Free Agency to the 2009 Draft

Jeremy Bolander — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Keeping track of a team's dynamic roster gain/loss throughout the offseason is one of the keys to understanding their draft day moves and choices. Enter Monitoring Team Needs, an at-a-glance way of checking up on your team's latest roster flux, as we count down through Free Agency, and into the days before the 2009 Draft.

Below is a table that breaks down this roster flux, showing who has come and gone, as well as updating the neediest areas of the team and some of the top names that have a good chance of being available when they pick in the Draft. Draft prospects are linked to their Mocking the Draft Profiles and any names or positions highlighted in bold should be considered either to be positions of particular need and emphasis, or players of particular relevance and interest to the team's situation. Below the chart we will discuss some of the names and situations described, and as always, you can join in on the discussion in the comments.

See you below the fold!


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 2008 Record and Rank: 7-9 2nd place	Team Needs	Likely DraftTargets (rd)
	QB, RT, OLB, DE, CB, FS, RB, WR, FB	DE/OLB, Everette Brown, Florida St(1st) OT, Andre Smith, Alabama (1st)
Free Agents Acquired	Current Free Agents	Free Agents/Players Lost
WR Micheal Spurlock(Res/Fut) FS Jimmy Williams(undisclosed)	QB Jamie Martin UFA QB J.T. O'Sullivan UFA RB DeShaun Foster UFA FB Zak Keasey ERFA WR Bryant Johnson UFA TE Sean P. Ryan UFA TE Billy Bajema UFA OG Tony Wragge RFA OL Damane Duckett UFA DL Ronald Fields UFA DE Roderick Green UFA CB Allen Rossum UFA LB Takeo Spikes UFA CB Donald Strickland UFA	SS Keith Lewis (cut) LB Tully Banta-Cain (cut)

LB Takeo Spikes was the second leading tackler on the team, with 122, and every indication is that he wants to be back. If rumors of a 2-3 year offer are true, the 49ers will find it hard to turn down his pricetag, since it won't have a long term impact on the team's rebuilding efforts.
WR Bryant Johnson won't be back. With youngster Josh Morgan ready to step in the Niners will be happy to save money here. At a certain point you should only pay so much for 45 catches, 546 yards. There is some very good midlevel depth at WR this year in the draft, so with any luck the Niners can nab Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina, or Percy Harvin, Florida.
In the backfield the Niners have a twofold concern, both involving RB Frank Gore to some degree. Perhaps the most important is clearing out some actual lanes for him, and a reliable FB would be a great first step in this direction (along with strongside tackle). They will have a chance to retain FB Zak Keasey, who missed some time with a biceps injury, but there are numerous options available in free agency as well. Justin Griffith in Oakland, or Moran Norris in Detroit would be good choices. Earlier there was word that Tony Richardson would be interested in blocking for Gore, but the Jets look to be committed to resigning Richardson. The second concern for Gore will be picking up another big set of wheels to pair with him and help take some of the wear off, before the miles become too much. RB Deshaun Foster showed he is still an effective back, but he will likely be allowed to leave after languishing on the bench most of the year. This is another position that will almost surely be addressed in the mid-rounds of the draft, but the kind of product they are looking for may not be available after the fourth round. Rashad Jennings, Liberty, and Arian Foster, Tennessee are both bigger guys who may still be around in the middle of the fourth, so some urgency should be involved with the pick.
The Niners expect to have between $25 and $30 million in available cap space, but there have already been warnings that they are not interested in breaking the bank for any high-profile players. Besides trying to resign many of their own guys they should be looking at some critical extensions for studs like LB Patrick Willis and pass rusher Parys Haralson.

Statistical Preview of 2009 Free Agency: III. Fullbacks

Florida Danny — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 16:00:08 -0000

So far in Parts 1 and 2 of my free agency previews, I've identified Jeff Garcia and ~~Vernon Carey~~ Mark Tauscher as the best available free agents who fit (a) the characteristics of playoff-caliber signings at their position, and (b) what performance attributes the 49ers are looking for at each position. Based on your poll votes, you've tended to agree with me, although a majority thought the 49ers should draft a QB after the 1^st round, and a near-plurality thought they should draft a RT.

Today, in Part 3, I'll be taking a look at the free agent fullbacks. As before, I'll begin with an argument for evaluating only a select group of FBs that fit a certain profile. Then, I'll present the available stats, and conclude by ranking the specific free agent FBs who fit the profile.

IDENTIFYING THE TARGET(S)

Needless to say, Mike Martz's 2008 offense did not utilize a traditional lead-blocking FB. In fact, from looking at the game logs for the season, the 49ers appeared to have a hard time actually identifying their starting FB on the roster. Billy Bajema, who's listed on the roster as a TE, started Game 1. Zak Keasey - who looks more like a buff Zack de la Rocha than a FB - started Games 2-4 before getting injured. For the remaining games, Bajema started 7 in the backfield, Delanie Walker (another TE) started 1, Sean Ryan (listed as an H-Back) started 1, Michael Robinson (a college QB/versatile RB) started 1, and a ghost (aka no FB) started 2. It's evident, then, that the Niners had FB problems in 2008. What's also evident is that, because Mike Martz chose Keasey over Moran Norris as a better fit for his non-lead-FB offense, there ended up being no lead-blocking FBs on the roster when Mike Singletary - and his preference for smash-mouth football - took over as HC.

Based on what happened in 2008, Singletary and Jimmy Raye have made it clear that reintroducing a lead-blocking FB to the 49ers' offense is a major goal of this offseason. Their identification of FB as a need position for the Niners is well justified for several reasons. Statistically speaking, the Niner offense was 31^st in 3^rd-and-short DVOA, 32^nd in 1^st down rush DVOA, 29^th in red zone rush DVOA, and 32^nd in power running success in 2008. Besides an upgrade in the OL, nothing helps performance in these situations like a "big, square-backed" lead blocker. In terms of non-statistical reasons, (arguably) the 3 most important individuals involved in the 49ers' running game are all admitted FB proponents: Raye, RB coach Tom Rathman, and #1 RB Frank Gore. Raye's biggest success as an OC was when he had Tony Richardson in KC. Rathman obviously was a FB in his playing days with the 49ers, but he's also been the RB coach for lead-blocking FB offenses since 1997, having coached William Floyd, Marc Edwards, Fred Beasley, Cory Schlesinger, and Zack Crockett. As to Gore, since the FB started to be phased out of the Niner offense during the second half of 2007, Gore has seen his production decrease and his soreness increase. You have to believe he misses "his FB."

So Singletary et al. want - rather, need - a lead-blocking FB to run the type offense they want to run, and get the type of production they want out of that offense. Needing such a FB is one thing; acquiring one is another. This got me thinking: What is the state of the FB position in the NFL? In other words, how many teams consistently rely on a lead-blocking FB? Also, because the Niners think adding a FB will help them reach the playoffs, here's a related question: Do FB-dependent teams reach the playoffs more often than FB-indifferent teams? Even if the answers to these questions favor the 49ers consistently relying on a FB, which of the 2 routes, free agency or the draft, is the better option for finding a player who can immediately step in and fit their "square-backed guy" criterion? I know this is an article about free agency, but when was the last time an NFL team signed a much-ballyhooed, lead-blocking FB? Similarly, when was the last time I heard of a much-ballyhooed FB draft pick? The answers to all of these questions might give us a hint about how the 49ers should proceed in their FB search, and with whom their FB search might result.

Below is a table showing the "starting" FBs in the NFL. The reason I put quotation marks around "starting" will quickly become obvious:

Player	Team	GS	Pos	How Acq	Age Acq	Round
Karney, Mike	NO	8	FB	Draft	--	5
Vickers, Lawrence	CLE	8	FB	Draft	--	6
Hoover, Brad	*CAR*	11	FB	Draft	--	ND
Hall, Ahmard	*TEN*	11	FB	Draft	--	ND
Tolbert, Mike	SD	7	FB	Draft	--	ND
Weaver, Leonard	SEA	7	FB	Draft	--	ND
Jones, Greg	JAC	7	FB/RB	Draft	--	2
McClain, LeRon	*BAL*	16	FB/RB	Draft	--	4
Hillis, Peyton	DEN	6	FB/RB	Draft	--	7
Schouman, Derek	BUF	12	TE/FB	Draft	--	7
Bajema, Billy	SF	10	TE/FB	Draft	--	7
Robinson, Gijon	*IND*	14	TE/FB	Draft	--	ND
Sellers, Mike	WAS	6	TE/FB	Draft	--	ND
McKie, Jason	CHI	8	FB	Free Agent	23	ND
Leach, Vonta	HOU	12	FB	Free Agent	24	ND
Hedgecock, Madison	*NYG*	10	FB	Free Agent	26	7
Mughelli, Ovie	*ATL*	13	FB	Free Agent	27	4
Lawton, Luke	OAK	7	FB	Free Agent	28	ND
Norris, Moran	DET	8	FB	Free Agent	30	4
Richardson, Tony	NYJ	7	FB	Free Agent	36	ND

After the jump, I'll discuss the table, identify 4 free agent FB targets, and pick the one who best fits what the Niners are looking for (aka a lead-blocking FB)...

As always, housekeeping comes first. The number of games a FB started is indicated in the "GS" column. When a FB is listed as "FB/RB" it means that he has recent experience as his team's primary ball-carrier. I say recent because, although Tony Richardson was KC's leading rusher a decade ago, it's been a long time since any team has considered giving him primary RB duties, even as an injury replacement. When a FB is listed as "TE/FB," it means that he is used primarily as an H-Back, which involves both lead-blocking and (more frequently) TE responsibilities. When a FB was acquired via the draft but is listed as "ND (which stands for Not Drafted)," it means he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the team for which he currently plays. In other words, he wasn't really acquired via free agency in the typical "signing another team's FB" sense. The opposite is true for FBs acquired through free agency. An "ND" classification in their case means that they were signed as an undrafted free agent by their former team, and therefore represent the typical type of free agency acquisition. OK...housekeeping complete.

First question: What is the state of the FB position in the NFL? As suggested by my use of quotations for the term "starter," the NFL has become a FB wasteland. Whereas figuring out who each team's starting QB and RT was easy, I had a tougher time with such a task as it relates to FBs. The result is that the above table only includes the 20 FBs who started 6 or more games for their team in 2008. Below the 6-start threshold, you descend into an underworld of teams that basically don't have much use for FBs. Of the 20 FBs listed in the table, only 1 started all 16 games (McClain), and only 9 started 10 games or more. Although the temptation is to conclude from these meager totals that FB isn't that important to NFL teams, the 10-starts-and-up crowd probably would have started all 16 games were it not for the fact that a team's "starting FB" may not actually play the team's first offensive snap (i.e., start). So, conservatively, we can say that about one-quarter of the league consistently relies on a starting FB.

It's a little more difficult to answer the question about whether consistent reliance on a FB is associated with a greater likelihood of making the playoffs. In the above table, the teams listed in bold italics made the playoffs in 2008. Focusing on teams with 10 or more FB starts, 6 of the 9 made the playoffs. Moreover, 2 of the 3 FB-reliant teams that didn't make the playoffs (BUF and SF) actually used their FB in the H-Back mold. So, ignoring the 3 teams with 10+ starts from an H-Back, 5 of the 6 teams that relied on a lead-blocking FB made the playoffs. So the conclusion here is that relying on a lead-blocking FB was associated with making the playoffs in 2008, right? Wrong. If I were to expand the table to include the "starting" FBs for all 32 teams, we'd find that 5 of the bottom 9 teams in FB starts made the playoffs, including the two teams that played in Super Bowl XLIII. So actually, the better conclusion is that playoff teams in 2008 were more likely to either (a) consistently rely on a lead-blocking FB or (b) ignore the lead-blocking FB altogether. Indeed, the middle 15 teams in FB starts accounted for only 1 playoff participant in 2008 (SD).

Obviously, based on his firing of Martz and hiring of Raye, Singletary chose the "consistently rely on a lead-blocking FB" route. The next question, therefore, is, "How should the 49ers acquire their lead-blocking FB?" To answer this question, we need to refer back to the table. As shown, 13 of the 20 "starting" FBs were acquired via the draft. Although this would seem to suggest that more "starting" FBs are acquired via the draft, it's important to note that 7 of the 13 FB draft picks don't actually serve as lead blockers for their teams. So really, 6 lead-blocking FB "starters" were drafted by their current teams, whereas 7 were signed as free agents. In statistics, we'd call that a "nonsignificant difference."

Here are a couple of other things to consider. With respect to drafting a FB, if you ignore the 7 FB/RBs and H-Backs, 9 of the remaining 13 FBs were either drafted in the 7^th round or signed as undrafted free agents. This seems to suggest that, if a team wants a lead-blocking FB, they can get away with waiting a looooooong time on draft weekend to acquire him. Although not as relevant to the 49ers situation, this reality is also evident if you don't ignore those "hybrid" FBs: 5 of the 7 hybrids were also either drafted in the 7^th round or signed as an undrafted free agent. In case you weren't keeping track, that's 6 out of 20 "starting" FBs in 2008 who were drafted before the 7^th round.

The second thing to consider relates to free agency. Of the 7 FBs signed as free agents by their current teams, only 3 could reasonably be considered to have been full-time FBs at the time they were signed: Mughelli, Norris, and Richardson. The other 4 were young, no-name, practice squad/special teams players when they were signed by their current team. Based on these two breakdowns, then, it appears that NFL teams (a) pick their "starting" FB late in the draft, (b) sign him as an undrafted free agent, or (c) sign him when he's an inexperienced no-name.

In summary, then, less than half of the NFL teams employ a lead-blocking FB as their starter. In terms of making the playoffs, 2008 seems to suggest that relying on a lead-blocking FB is akin to the "all in or fold" poker situation. Finally, FBs are a dime a dozen. For the most part, NFL teams either wait until late in (or after) the draft to pick one, or they sign another team's inexperienced, no-name free agent.

THE LITTER

Here's how I would apply the above stats to the 49ers' current situation:

They should probably draft their "square-backed" starting FB in the later rounds or sign him as an undrafted free agent, rather than signing another team's free agent.

If they choose to sign a free agent to be their starting FB, that free agent should probably be an inexperienced no-name.

These recommendations pose an interesting problem for my article. How am I supposed to statistically preview inexperienced, no-name free agent FBs when they can't possibly have accumulated an adequate amount of trustworthy stats? Well, the truth is that I can't. Luckily (for me), though, none of the FBs who are currently listed as unrestricted free agents meet this description. Therefore, what I'm going to do is present stats for the free agent FBs who (a) have enough stats for a trustworthy analysis, and (b) are in the FB mold that Singletary, Raye, or Rathman are likely to covet. Basically, a 49er FB signing this offseason might not be ideal according to the norms, but, as you'll see, the cupboard is far from bare. Here are the 4 free agent FBs I'm going to discuss:

Tony Richardson, age 37

Lorenzo Neal, age 38

Moran Norris, age 31

Leonard Weaver, age 26

When looking at these FBs, it should be clear to you that I consider Richardson, Neal, and Norris to be more in line with Singletary's and Raye's ideas of a starting FB, and consider Weaver to be more in line with the type of FB Rathman might favor. In fact - and this is just my opinion - Weaver seems like Rathman reincarnate. Among these players, Richardson would be the logical choice given his multi-team history with Raye. But what do the stats say?

Aside from Weaver, the only job duty for these FBs - if they sign with the Niners - is to be the lead blocker on running plays. Therefore, there's no use in relying on player-specific stats here. Instead, I have to look at indicators of how well each player blocked. I've chosen 5 such indicators: 2 measures of his team's blocking performance (team ALY and power running ranking); 1 measure of his team's overall running efficiency (team rush DVOA); 1 measure of his team's #1 RB yardage value (#1 RB DYAR); and 1 measure of his team's #1 RB running efficiency (#1 RB DVOA). Because none of these stats are specific to the FB position, I'm going to change things up from previous free agency previews, and present the relevant stats covering all of the player's seasons as a lead-blocking FB starter (rather than just the past 3 years).

Here are the relevant stats for Richardson, Neal, Norris, and Weaver:

Tony Richardson	37 yo	6'1" 238 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
2001	KC	4.45	3	380	1	20.2%	1	12.2%	3	4
2002	KC	4.48	5	539	1	31.2%	1	27.2%	1	5
2003	KC	4.50	3	480	1	24.8%	3	21.9%	1	14
2004	KC	4.72	3	273	4	23.4%	2	21.8%	1	8
2005	KC	4.62	3	468	1	23.3%	1	15.5%	4	10
2006	MIN	4.30	14	10	33	-7.8%	33	-7.7%	22	12
2007	MIN	4.23	13	228	4	16.4%	7	10.9%	4	2
2008	NYJ	4.76	4	235	5	11.7%	7	10.5%	5	25
Average		4.51	6	327	6	17.9%	7	14.0%	5	10

Lorenzo Neal	38 yo	5'11" 255 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
1999	TEN	4.26	6	70	15	-3.4%	18	5.1%	4	1
2000	TEN	3.92	20	105	14	-2.3%	16	1.3%	14	29
2001	CIN	3.77	23	31	22	-6.4%	28	-12.8%	24	24
2002	CIN	4.35	10	140	11	2.0%	18	-4.0%	19	1
2003	SD	4.21	16	365	2	20.5%	4	16.6%	2	13
2004	SD	4.20	15	88	20	-2.5%	29	3.9%	11	7
2005	SD	4.39	9	331	6	15.8%	6	18.2%	2	2
2006	SD	4.82	1	453	1	23.4%	3	22.0%	1	4
2007	SD	3.98	24	287	2	13.6%	11	2.6%	11	19
Average		4.21	14	208	10	6.7%	15	5.9%	10	11

Moran Norris	31 yo	6'1" 250 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
2003	HOU	3.68	29	40	27	-4.4%	29	-11.4%	27	16
2004	HOU	4.14	19	154	11	3.8%	16	0.9%	14	11
2005	HOU	4.43	8	66	19	-1.5%	18	-5.4%	13	30
2006	SF	4.48	7	242	8	10.1%	12	-2.1%	13	28
2007	SF	4.28	11	130	14	4.3%	21	-11.1%	25	24
2008	DET	3.55	31	88	22	-0.3%	23	-14.3%	30	10
Average		4.09	18	120	17	2.0%	20	-7.2%	20	20

Leonard Weaver	26 yo	6'0" 251 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
2007	SEA	3.74	29	-74	48	-17.3%	46	-10.0%	21	27
2008	SEA	3.86	29	6	39	-10.2%	43	-7.9%	26	4
Average		3.80	29	-34	44	-13.8%	45	-9.0%	24	16

Year	Team	RB Rec DYAR	Rk	RB Rec DVOA	Rk	Rec Yds	Rec EYds
2007	SEA	87	11	17.3%	14	313	379
2008	SEA	44	28	15.6%	14	222	200
Average		66	20	16.5%	14	268	290

In terms of a FB's run-blocking ability, this competition isn't even close when looking at the 5 stats I've presented here: Tony Richardson has been the best by far. His teams have been in the top 5 of ALY rankings 6 times in 8 seasons as a lead-blocking FB, and in the top 5 of rush DVOA rankings 7 times. In addition, his #1 RBs have been in the top 5 of RB DYAR rankings 7 times, and in the top 10 of RB DVOA rankings 7 times.

What makes Richardson's stats even more attractive, especially in light of his age, is that he doesn't appear to be a player whose effectiveness as a lead blocker has fallen off considerably over time. Really, the only one of Richardson's stops that didn't produce a spectacular running game was his 2 seasons in MIN. Even in MIN's case, however, the dropoff in performance be explained in 1 of 3 ways: (a) a problem with Richardson, (b) a problem with Richardson's #1 RB, or (c) a problem with the offensive system. I don't think it was due to (a) because Richardson went to the Pro Bowl after the 2007 season and seemed to be just fine in 2008 with NYJ. And I don't think it was due to (b) because MIN's leading rushers were the not-too-shabby Chester Taylor in 2006 and the pretty-awesome Adrian Peterson in 2007. Therefore, I think it was probably (c) because Brad Childress is a disciple of Andy Reid, who, from the table I showed you earlier, doesn't seem to rely much on a FB.

In terms of the other Singletary-esque free agent FBs, Neal and Norris at this point seem to - like Dorothy - want to get the (site decorum) out of Oz. Despite having blocked for several above-average #1 RBs (most notably in SD), and having blocked on several above-average running teams, Neal found himself rubbed out in BAL after the arrival of John Harbaugh, and, by proxy, LeRon McClain. After all, who needs a lead blocker when a battering ram FB is your #1 RB? A similar fate befell Norris when Ted Tollner arrived in SF as a "special offensive consultant" in 2007, and Martz arrived as a "special lead-blocking FB hater" in 2008. Of course, Martz showing up in SF was especially disastrous for Norris because he ended up playing for a winless DET team. So, it appears that, for both Neal and Norris, signing with a team that has a functioning OL and actually uses a lead-blocking FB (aka clicking their ruby slippers) would probably benefit them both performance-wise and psychologically.

Finally, there's Weaver. From his lead-blocking stats, he's easily the worst of the 4 free agent FBs. Of course, that's to be expected because he's easily been the least utilized lead-blocking FB of the 4, and he's blocked for the worst #1 RBs. Therefore, I've added his individual receiving stats to see if, ala Tom Rathman, he's been a benefit to SEA's passing game. Although it's based on only 2 seasons, his stats seem to suggest he is a very efficient receiver. From a 49er perspective, all we needed was one sunny day this past November to give us (and Singletary) enough evidence for that conclusion. Just to be clear, though, keep in mind that Weaver's receiving DVOA is ranked among all NFL RBs - not just FBs - who had at least 25 passes thrown their way during the season. In other words, his ranking means he was the 14^th-best receiving RB in the NFL the past 2 seasons, which is way better than being the 14^th-best FB. Overall, I'd say that, if the 49ers think he'd develop his lead-blocking skills with Rathman (I mean he's only 26) and benefit from having Gore as his #1 RB, then Weaver might actually be a pretty valuable acquisition.

PICK OF THE LITTER

Here's how a tablespoon of stats and a teaspoon of opinion suggest the 4 free agent lead-blocking FBs should rank:

Tony Richardson
Leonard Weaver
Moran Norris
Lorenzo Neal

Richardson is the best choice given his consistent lead-blocking prowess, and he's the most likely choice given his coach-player relationship with Jimmy Raye. Weaver is the next-best choice because of his age, receiving performance, and intriguing skill-set similarity to Tom Rathman. Moran Norris is ranked next because he's 7 years younger than Neal, his stats have suffered the past 2 seasons due to coaching factors outside his control (aka Tollner and Martz), and he's Gore's favorite FB. Finally, Neal brings up the rear. His stats aren't as good as you'd think given the caliber of teams for which he's played and #1 RBs for which he's blocked (Eddie George, Corey Dillon, and LaDainian Tomlinson). If that's the case, why have Neal circa 2009 when you could have Neal circa 2002 with Norris?

On Tuesday, I'll be previewing the pass rushers. TO BE CONTINUED...

**DVOA, DYAR, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How would you MOST prefer the 49ers to address their FB position during THIS offseason?

By signing Tony Richardson

60 votes

By signing Leonard Weaver

114 votes

By signing Moran Norris

85 votes

By signing Lorenzo Neal

64 votes

By signing a free agent FB not listed here (Specify in comments)

7 votes

By drafting a late-round FB

50 votes

380 votes | Poll has closed

49ers Questions for 2009: Fooch and Maiocco break it down

Fooch — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:00:11 -0000

FOOCH'S NOTE 9:30AM: Welcome to folks swinging over from Maiocco's Instant 49ers blog. If this is your first time at Niners Nation and you wanna join in the discussion, sign up here. It's free and I promise no spam mail and a great community. The quick registration will allow you to comment, write FanPosts, FanShots and join in the general discussion. Welcome.

Ten days ago I got in touch with Matt Maiocco about utilizing some of his reader questions to inspire posts over here. Things get quiet in the offseason and I'll take anything I can get for a post. However, he had a slightly better idea: come up with ten of the most pertinent 49ers questions heading into the offseason and link to each others answers. We've had plenty of discussion about many of these topics, but I think it's helpful to consolidate them all for this particular conversation. There are a lot of issues to be addressed this offseason and I know I missed some of them. These are simply ten that quickly came to mind. Below are my answers and you can head on over to Instant 49ers to get Maiocco's take on these questions. Due to the length, the first five questions and answers are on the front page and the final five are after the jump.

I haven't seen his answers yet, nor has he seen mine, so we'll see how they compare. As the offseason moves along we'll see who ends up getting closer in these quasi-predictions. Feel free to provide your own answers, whether it be regarding one of the questions or all of the questions. And thanks to Matt for collaborating on this.

1. Who on the roster has the best chance of being the starting QB heading into week 1 of the regular season?

I'll stick with Shaun Hill for the foreseeable future. Smith has always been a better practice player, but the situation has changed from a year ago. Heading into camp last season, Hill had a very small body of work with which to compare. Although 9 more games isn't a dramatic addition, it's still three times as many games as he'd played in for his career. This should lead to a bit more benefit of the doubt.

Furthermore, although we don't have the details of the Raye/Singletary offense, it can't possibly be as complex as the Mike Martz offense. Combine the complexity of the Martz offense with Hill's practice performances and it was not a great situation. I'd like to think that life would be a bit easier in that regard heading into training camp. In answering these questions, I'm realizing a lot of this ends up more as "hoping" than thinking. Maybe it's "hoping" Singletary makes the right call.

2. Can Shaun Hill overcome his practice woes in the Jimmy Raye offense?

If the offense is not dependent on big plays, I don't see why Hill can't improve his practice performances. Often times a power running game is complimented with a shorter passing game. Hill throws a very ugly deep ball but seems to make the under 20 yard passes with relative efficiency. While we know that Singletary and Raye want a power running game, we still don't know what that means for the passing attack. If it's the shorter game that I think it will be, I see no reason why Hill can't excel in practice and on game day. Consider me an optimist in that regard.

3. Can Frank Gore give Singletary what he wants out of his "smash-mouth" offense? If not, what kind of addition would it take?

Gore proved he could dominate in the ground game in 2006. Although his numbers have decreased each of the last two seasons, it's possible bringing in a new fullback could get him back to his dominant ways. Although most of the free agent fullbacks are getting up their in years, guys like Tony Richardson, Lorenzo Neal and the return of Moran Norris could be great options for 2009. The Martz-led offense used the fullback but really not all that much and simply tried to create hybrid players like Michael Robinson and Sean Ryan. I'm convinced a legit fullback (more specifically, not Zak Keasey) would get the running game further on track. I think a fullback would do that in a way splitting carries with a Deshaun Foster type could not.

4. Is there any hope for Vernon Davis?

Unfortunately (for my psyche at least) I remain convinced Vernon Davis can turn things around in the receiving game. He's shown he can be a beast in blocking, but given his draft status, it's not surprising people want to see more. The freakish athleticism makes it hard to give up on Davis' ability as a receiver. Although Davis is a great option for stretching the field, it seems like he's been more consistent on quick screens and plays out of the backfield. Of course, our own Florida Danny had some interesting thoughts on Davis, as compared to the rest of the receivers, as well.

If the 49ers can utilize him more in those quick hit situations, he might finally reach the levels of production most people want. On shorter plays he's got the size to power over cornerbacks and the speed to get past the linebackers and make big plays, or the proverbial something out of nothing. Maybe it's not as sexy as the deep bombs, but there is nothing sexy about seeing him run an incorrect route or not reach for the deep ball. It'd be great if he was as consistent as a Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, but the Duke is not blessed that way. The 49ers, and particularly Jimmy Raye, have to take extra steps to put him in a position to succeed.

5. At what point in the offseason should the 49ers make a move for a QB?

The best time to make the move would be in the mid-rounds of the draft (3rd-5th). If you've been reading Niners Nation even since December, you'll know this has been my argument quite consistently. The Alex Smith issue aside, I think Shaun Hill is a very reasonable option for the next couple of years. He's signed to a reasonable contract for the next two seasons, which would provide a solid training period for the proverbial QB of the future. They could follow the pattern of Houston/Tennessee with Steve McNair or the Bengals with Carson Palmer.

I say Alex Smith aside because until something happens, I just don't know what to expect. It's too much of an unknown situation to make a prediction on. If they work out a new deal with Alex Smith, I think it's safe to say they will not sign a veteran (no matter what, please no Kerry Collins) and instead just grab someone in the draft. If they let Smith walk, I'd fully expect a free agent and a draft choice. Either way, I'd much prefer trying to find a diamond in the 3rd-5th round rough than Mark Sanchez.

6. What three potential free agents are the most realistic for the 49ers to sign?

I actually think that technically the most likely free agent signing is our very own Takeo Spikes. But that's too easy.

Terrell Suggs, OLB/DE: He's a pricey option and the Ravens would love to have him back, but they've got too many free agent issues on defense (Scott, Lewis, Leonhard and Suggs). The 49ers have options at outside linebacker and might prefer to address this need in the draft. However, the cap space will allow them to match most deals and it might make the most sense to go for the young veteran, Suggs. He actually finished with the same number of sacks as Haralson but seems to bring more of the all-around game to match Manny Lawson.

Tony Richardson, Fullback: This could probably just as likely be Moran Norris, or maybe even Lorenzo Neal. The 49ers need a real fullback and I'm pretty confident it will be one of these aged three. I listed Richardson first because of the Jimmy Raye connection. They worked together in the Meadowlands last season, but they go all the way back to Kansas City at the turn of the century (a fitting turn of phrase for Jimmy Raye..hey now!)

Eugene Wilson, Free Safety: I discuss the free safety position twice more (#7, #10) and the more I research, the more I'm curious about Eugene Wilson. MM heard on the grapevine that free safety is a position the team is looking to address in free agency. OJ Atogwe is a great option, but I'd be curious to see what he gets compared to Wilson. Wilson has dealt with injury issues off and on, which certainly can't help his value. As discussed in the Goldson question at the end of this, I'd much prefer Goldson get the job. However, I understand the need for more depth there and Wilson could be that kind of guy.

7. What spot on defense is in most need of an upgrade?

Pass Rush: I was originally going to say that free safety needed the upgrade. However, as much as Mark Roman struggled, the pass rush's inconsistency was even worse. A more consistent pass rush could even solve secondary problems by forcing the QB to throw much faster and before his receivers have run their routes. Furthermore, at free safety you're just looking to replace one player. With the pass rush, there are several areas the 49ers might need to upgrade. That could require a big nose tackle to occupy the middle, a defensive end to occupy the edge, and the speed rusher coming from the outside linebacker position. Guys like B.J. Raji, Everette Brown and Brian Orakpo could provide some answers in the first round.

8. If Malcolm Jenkins is there at 10 do the 49ers go with him, or is Tarell Brown a legit option to replace Walt Harris?

I'm convinced Tarell Brown is a solid option going forward. With their needs along the offensive line and in the pass rush, they have a much greater need for help there than a "luxury" like Jenkins. If the top tackle and pass rush options are not there, then maybe it's worth going best available there. However, given the numbers, it's likely one of OL/OLB options is there. Of course, part of it depends on.....

9. Can Parys Haralson and Manny Lawson provide a consistent pass rush or do they need to make a play for some more well known talent?

Is Parys Haralson a long term answer? After some inconsistent playing time, the promotion of Mike Singletary seemed to get him more consistent time on the field. As discussed above, the likes of Terrell Suggs in free agency, or Everette Brown and Brian Orakpo in the draft, are very tempting. I think Haralson can be a solid pass rush threat but considering he'll be a free agent next year, it is probably a good idea to start pondering a long-term replacement.

Although Manny Lawson is a very impressive athlete, he seems to bring more of the all-around game at linebacker, from coverage to pass rush to stopping the run. Given that and Haralson's free agent status, a Suggs, Brown or Orakpo would make sense at this point.

10. Will Dashon Goldson be able to secure a starting job at some point this season?

I keep telling myself he'll lock up the starting job, but I wonder if it's more hope than reality. Reports out of training camp last summer indicated he was quite the ball hawk, something the 49ers have missed at times. However, he couldn't lock down the starting free safety job early on. When Coach Singletary took over, there was a chance Goldson could have gotten that starting job. Singletary clearly has no problems going with youngsters (see Rachal, Chilo) but the timing killed Goldson. I had never really looked at this before, but Goldson went down with a knee injury in the Giants game. The severity of the injury meant he was inactive for the first seven games of the Singletary era. There was no way he was going to take over the starting job in the final two weeks of the season.

So what does that mean going forward? MM indicated he had heard the 49ers would be looking to grab a free safety in free agency. If they're looking for top-shelf talent, that would indicate a guy like OJ Atogwe of the Rams or maybe Eugene Wilson of the Texans. If they sign Atogwe then I'd guess Goldson would not become the starter anytime soon. If they sign a lesser talent, I think Goldson will secure the job as early as training camp.

Golden Nuggets: Two-headed monster?

Ninjames — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 10:50:12 -0000

Good morning all, James here again. I've got a couple of links for you, at least today isn't completely empty. All I can think about right now is what we're going to do at running back and whether or not Thomas Clayton will finally get his shot. I love this guy, he was a beast in the preseason and to me that means you give the guy a shot in the regular season. Either way, I've got a few links for you to look at--oh and I hope we keep Zak Keasey (if only for special teams.)

Our identity.. er... what is it? (SFGate.com)

A look at our divsion rivals' potential offseason problems. (PressDemocrat.com)

An interesting look at potential fullback candidates. (MVN.com)

So is that sixth title within reach? (Examiner.com)

Joe Staley updates his blog, he talks about watching the super bowl. (49ersFaithful.net)

Should we go for a dual-back approach? I will say it again.. yes, and with Thomas Clayton. (SacBee.com)

Patrick Willis wants to be playing football right now. Right this very second. (49ers.com)