SB Nation - Andy Lee

Golden Nuggets: Clueless

Ninjames — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 11:00:38 -0000

Good morning folks! Welcome to today's edition of the Nuggets. Guess who has two thumbs and doesn't know what he's talking about? James Brady, nice to meet you! What I mean by that is I started typing out an introduction and proceeded to rant about how the 49ers had a game tomorrow and how I'd be going and all that jazz and then I realized... well, that it wasn't Saturday. I suppose that's a clear indication on the kind of Christmas I'll be having this year? Either way.. 49ers talk, 49ers talk um... We signed a kicker, a lefty too which I think is pretty cool, I'd never have thought of doing that to keep all the schemes the same and the holder constant. The side Andy Lee has to be on for holding, I wonder how much of a difference that really makes? I mean, I'm not keen on throwing him on the other side just to find out, but I wonder if another kicker had higher credentials that the 49ers considered before going with the lefty? Then again I didn't read into it ant maybe that info is readily available... Must be a testament to how much I research things. "Whoops." Here's some linkage.

Backup C Cody Wallace will get some playing time on Sunday, which is surprising to me. I mean, I guess it's cool to see what we have, but Heitman is consistently the best player on the line under just about any circumstance and I hope we don't get rid of him or something along those lines. (SacBee.com)

The 49ers need to finish strong, yet again. Alex Smith also needs to finish strong or the 49ers may be in the market for a new quarterback. (Yahoo.com)

Jed York is definitely disappointed... like all of us, but he still wants continuity, which I think is pretty important. (PressDemocrat.com)

Make sure you check out the re-airing of "The Catch" today on the NFL Network! (NinersNation.com)

A look at how the teams in the NFC West fared in the draft with their first round picks. I think the 49ers are pretty well off in that regard. (ESPN.com)

The 49ers have plenty to accomplish against Detroit. (49ers.com)

Check out some of the conference calls concerning the Lions. (49ers.com)

Yes, the 49ers signed a kicker to fill in for an injured Joe Nedney. A left footed kicker. (MercuryNews.com)

So, looks like there will be no Nate Davis this season. Bummer, I'd like to see some of him. (MercuryNews.com)

Here's yesterday's edition of Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)

Jed York confirms there will be no major changes this offseason as far as coaching staff goes. (PressDemocrat.com)

I sincerely hope Ahmad Brooks develops as a pass rusher. I like the guy a lot. (MercuryNews.com)

2010 Pro Bowl voting closed: Willis leads NFC ILBs, Davis third among TEs

Fooch — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 23:05:54 -0000

The NFL officially closed the polls on Pro Bowl fan balloting today. Players and coaches will be voting today and tomorrow and the teams will be announced next Tuesday December 29 on the NFL Network. The Pro Bowl itself will air on ESPN on Sunday January 31, 2010 in Miami. This is the first season the Pro Bowl will air from the site of the Super Bowl, and a week before the Super Bowl, instead of afterwards.

After approximately 90 million votes, our very own Patrick Willis leads among NFC inside linebackers. We don't know yet if he'll be starting because the fan vote only counts for 1/3 of the final tally, with the players and coaches each counting for 1/3. I'd imagine Willis will get the nod, but we'll have to wait and see on December 29.

Although no other 49er finished in first in the fan vote, I'd imagine there are some players with a decent chance of making the roster. TE Vernon Davis is one of those players. He finished third in fan voting among NFC tight ends, behind Tony Gonzalez and Jeremy Shockey, but ahead of Jason Witten and Visanthe Shiancoe. It will be interesting to see how the player and coach voting goes. Davis has a slim lead among NFC tight ends in receiving yards, leads in TDs by 2, and is third in receptions. Last year the NFC selected two tight ends, while the AFC selected three. I'd imagine Gonzalez and Witten end up on the roster, but let's hope Vernon gets a little love.

The other position is punter, where Cardinals punter Ben Graham finished first among the fans. Andy Lee has a slim lead in gross and net average, but Graham has a good deal more punts inside the 20 (37 to 25 on fewer punts). I think Andy Lee deserves the spot, but if Graham received the roster spot, it wouldn't exactly be highway robbery.

Aubrayo Franklin has received a lot of talk for the Pro Bowl, but at this point Pat Williams of the famed VIkings Williams Wall is leading among interior defensive linemen. Franklin was on fire early on this season, but seemed to quiet down a bit later in the season. Not to say he's been performing poorly, but he hasn't been quite as high profile. He currently has 30 tackles, 5 for a loss, with 2 sacks, 3 pass deflections and of course that interception against the Bears. Just as important, he's been essential in clearing holes for Patrick Willis to continue blowing up plays left and right. The 49ers are 5th in rushing defense, and a good deal of that can be attributed to Aubrayo Franklin. I'm very curious to see how the player and coach voting considers him.

Mike Singletary press conference transcript

Fooch — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:00:20 -0000

Coach Singletary had his customary day after press conference today and I've pasted the transcript after the jump. There's nothing exactly shocking about this press conference. For those wondering about some fourth down attempts by the 49ers, Joe Nedney had his hamstring tighten up on him, so his availability become much more limited. He was going to get an MRI today and depending on the result, we could be seeing a new kicker. My favorite question of the day whether Andy Lee could handle kicking duties. We got a quick I don't think so on that one.

Beyond that, Singletary was quick to point to these next two games as a chance for the team to get some wins, as opposed to throwing out second and third stringers for "evaluation purposes." I understand their is value in a higher draft pick, but as I've said before, I'll take two more wins and a .500 record for the first time since 2002. I realize teams can often learn from losing, but I just don't see learning coming from losing to Detroit or St Louis. Or at least not enough to make up for the potential psychological damage of those kinds of losses.

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Press Conference - December 21, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statement:

"Good morning. After looking at the game film, I felt a little bit better, after looking at the film. Overall as a team, I thought we played pretty hard. We just didn't play very smart at times. When I looked at the offensive side of the ball, I thought [QB] Alex Smith did some nice things. As a matter of fact, I owe him an apology. I talked with him after the game and we had a conversation where I really kind of challenged him on some things, some of those throws or whatever. After looking at it, I have a better perspective. The first interception that he threw, he was throwing the ball to [TE] Vernon [Davis], and to be honest with you, I just think Vernon has to make a better play on that ball. I think the ball was there. It's just one of those situations where Vernon either has to make that play, or either he has to stop that DB from making that play. He's got to help the quarterback as well. Vernon is going to be a great tight end one day, but he's got to put the whole package together. That was the first interception. The second interception that Alex threw, it looks like the defense was playing two-man. The same sort of thing happened when we played Tennessee, where they had sort of like a four-man, where when the tight end takes off up the field, the safety is going to take off with him, and then the quarterback is getting back in a rhythm and it's like, the ball is out. So, when you have a quarterback that's as efficient as Alex can be and is getting the ball out and getting it to the receivers, then what you do from time to time is do a trap two. It's a trap coverage where you're throwing the ball on timing, and it looks like the receiver, or the defender is going with that receiver, and about one-thousand-one, one-thousand-two, you come back and get in front of the second guy that the quarterback is going to try and throw the ball to because he feels that either the corner or the safety has run off, but they come back. So, that's what happened last night on the second coverage. I know that doesn't make any sense to you, but I'm trying to explain it within the time frame that I can. But, I can understand why it happened; you just don't want it to happen. The last interception he threw was just a poor decision. He's trying to - the guy has him, he's trying to make a throw to [RB] Frank [Gore]. It's a bad decision. So, when I look at his play other than that, he's getting the ball out, he's throwing the ball where it needs to be. He threw some nice balls, out patterns - wherever you want it. He was making some pretty good throws.

I thought the o-line, overall, did a pretty decent job. The guys were physical on the run. I thought we did a pretty decent job on the run. As far as the passes were concerned, a couple of times protection broke down. When that happens, it's not going to be a good situation. We had hoped to be able to run the ball a little bit more than we did, but when we got behind, obviously we had to take some chances and throw the ball down the field a little bit more. Otherwise, we would have liked to have stayed with the run a little bit.

I thought Frank ran the ball well when he had the opportunity. It's a shame we couldn't have gotten him the ball more last night. That's kind of the way we were built in thinking this week, running the ball a little bit more this week because they're a smaller front. When we got behind - which is what they're built for, coming from behind, rushing the passer, stunting, those kinds of things - they got to do what they do more than we did. That's kind of the situation there. I thought the receivers played pretty decent. Josh Morgan really did a nice job. The receivers did a good job blocking downfield. So, when I think about the offense overall, that's pretty much it for the offense.

On the defensive side of the ball, I thought our guys - once again - I thought they played pretty well. Once again, they did not play very smart at times. A few coverage breakdowns, communication breakdowns rather. Whether or not you're going to be on top of a receiver or underneath him, that happened a couple of times, and one time it got us. But, it happened twice. Linebackers, underneath coverage: One time a tight end was going across the field, the guy has to stay with him. The communication has to be there, ‘I'm done here. You pick him up.' That didn't happen. All that is is just when you get behind, guys are trying to make plays. Guys are trying to do something more than just their job, and you can't do it. You just can't do that.

I thought the d-line did a pretty decent job. I thought the guys were playing hard. I thought Philly, their idea, their thought process when they were passing the ball was to either play action or max protect. I don't think the play action worked very well because they didn't get to run the ball very well. Play action runs better when you run the ball well. They didn't do a good job of that, so they did a better job max protecting, which means just keeping all of your people in and sending out maybe a couple of receivers and hoping you have time to hit them downfield. When it wasn't there, our DBs were covering, did a good job getting their hands on the guys for the most part. When it wasn't there, [QB Donovan] McNabb just threw it out of bounds. A couple of times, he threw it to us. There were other times where either the d-line got their hands up and batted the ball down, but, like I said, they were playing hard.

Special teams, [K] Joe Nedney had a hamstring. Hamstring got tight on him, and a field goal was not possible last night, so we had to go on fourth down a couple of times when we would have maybe opted to kick a field goal. Other than that guys, questions?"

On whether he is planning for QB Alex Smith to be the starting quarterback in 2010:

"I think right now the thing that I want to do before I start talking about who's going to do this and who's going to do that, I want to finish the season. I want to play this game this week. I want to see how our offense and defense and special teams respond this week, knowing there is definitely no chance that we're going to go to the playoffs. I think they'll respond fine, but I want to get through. It's going to take everything to get our guys ready and focused to get ready and play a good team coming in here. So, that's the first thing I want to do. Right now, before there is a temptation to start thinking about, ‘Well, who's going to do this? What changes do I need to make there and to start meeting with [general manager] Scot McCloughan about this and that.' I can't do that. We've got to focus on the two games that we have left. We're going to finish. We're going to finish this season and let everything else take care of itself."

On whether he is pleased with Smith's growth each week:

"Yes, I am. When I look at Alex, I think each week he's continued to grow. I think he's done a lot in a short amount of time. There are some quarterbacks around the league, and I'm not going to get into that, but that's been playing a while, and I don't think as efficient as he is right now. So, to me, when I'm looking at him and some of the things that he's been able to do, and some of things that he did last night, some of the decisions that he made, I think some of the things that have been happening right now for him, it's just that experience factor. It's just getting the timing down with the receivers more, and those little trap plays there whether it's a two or four, he's going to have a better feel for if that safety is really going to go with that tight end, or is that corner really going to go with the No. 1 receiver. All that is is just seeing it long enough, going through it long enough so you have a feel for it. But, I'm comfortable with what I'm seeing right now."

On the areas of the team that he has questions about:

"It's like this: I think, for our team, it's a situation where I think the most important thing for us to do, when everything is all said and done, is to look back at the problem areas and try and address those. But, when you look at the defense, there was a time that I was maybe a little more concerned about the back end, but I think our DBs have done a better job of getting their hands on guys and being more physical with their receivers. I think on the offensive line, I think there was a time that I had a lot of questions about the offensive line, but I think they've worked through some things and have gotten to a point where they're a pretty decent offensive line. There are just parts of the team that we have to address. We're constantly evaluating talent. We're constantly evaluating our players and coaches. I think we just have to sit down and really take a close look at it. I think it's a good situation to have when I can't just sit here and go, ‘Oh, we've got a problem here. We've got a problem there.' I think we've got to sit down and look at the film and, as a staff, kind of go through it and really look at we have to address this issue and that issue and move on."

On whether he will play backups the rest of the season:

"I think first and foremost, the last message I want to send is: we want to evaluate before we want to win. We want to win. Every time we step on the field, I want our guys to know we want to win and we want to compete. But at the same time, if we have a guy that hasn't had a chance to play, or we haven't really had a chance to look at him and we think maybe there is a chance he can play, to send him in for a series or maybe two and see how he handles that, that gives you some idea of where he is. It doesn't mean you have to play him the whole game or a whole half. I just think if there are spots where you feel you can do it, then do it. If you feel you can't, then it's just not going to happen. But we are going to try to win first."

On teaching the team how to win on the road:

"After the season we have to sit down and evaluate it. We have to sit down and evaluate what we can do better, what we need to do better. Was it the road? Was it just the team? Was it that week, or whatever? I think when it is all said and done, we just have to evaluate it and go from there."

On why 49ers quarterbacks have started well and hit a wall the last couple of seasons:

"First of all, I have not seen Alex hit a wall. I have to be very honest there, that is why I am looking forward to the next two games. I have not seen him hit a wall. I think he has been consistent. We can go back to the Tennessee game and you say, ‘Hey, he had four turnovers.' No, no he didn't. There was some help that he had in that game, and it was the same in this game. It is a shame to me that every time a quarterback throws an interception that automatically it's him. The guy is off, well he stinks. I think it is very important, and you have to evaluate it as the coach and make sure that you are looking at that quarterback and not destroy him and forget about the other parties involved. Is it the line, are they giving him enough protection? Is it the receivers, are they getting where they are supposed to go? Is there a trust factor, that receiver, can he trust him? There are a lot of different issues, which is why when I look at the film I am very encouraged. I don't have a situation in here where I am sitting back thinking, ‘Man, I thought Alex was making progress and now I don't know.' I'm not there at all, I promise you. I feel very good about his progression and the fact that he has only played a month and a half, maybe two, I am very encouraged by what I have seen in a short amount of time for a guy who has been out of football for a couple of years."

On the inconsistencies on deep passes in the past two games:

"I don't know about that. I would have to go back and look at that. That is something you have seen and I need to pay more attention to it. I will look at that and address it. But I think overall, with most quarterbacks, it is the same scenario, when you are throwing the ball within 10 yards, 15 yards, that intermediate route, you have more room. You have more room to throw, you have the crossing routes, you have that kind of stuff which is easier to hit. When you start talking about the accuracy downfield, that is something, for a quarterback, that is a little more difficult for most of them. I have seen Alex throw the ball downfield and hit the receivers, but I guess the consistency factor, I need to go back and look at the ratio and see what that is because I really haven't seen enough to say, ‘Good under and not good up there.'"

On how he feels about missing the playoffs:

"Let me ask you this: Give me some idea, if you have any idea, you have been sitting in this chair for a little bit, how do you have any idea how you think I might feel?"

[I would imagine you feel deeply disappointed.]

"That's putting it mildly. Yes, I am very frustrated. There are a lot of adjectives, some that I can't say, but I feel. This is a team that, it is unfortunate, it is a team that is good enough, they have to play perfect every week, the margin for error is very, very small, but this is a team that is very close to being that playoff team. I am saying very close because now we are not going to be in there. I think a lot of the pieces are in place. The most important thing in place, I think, is the work ethic and the belief that we are a step away, or however you put it. But I don't really want to go there either because you start talking like, ‘Oh, but next year.' I don't want to go there either. All I know is this group of guys, I am very proud of what they have been able to accomplish. Closing out the season is very important, in terms of how we do that because everything we want to be about going forward has everything to do with how we finish. If we want to call ourselves a good team or a decent team or an average team, to me not being able to go to the payoffs, and it is for them because they have worked hard enough, but we just weren't smart enough, for the most part, to make it. But very frustrating, very frustrating."

On any new injuries:

"I think [RB] Glen Coffee has a thigh strain and [K] Joe Nedney, they both will have an MRI today and we will see from there. I think [T Joe] Staley came out OK, I will get more information on that later on. But I think everything else is okay."

On Nedney's status for next week:

"If he can't kick the ball, if he can't kick field goals, then we will possibly try to look at someone to see if we can solve that issue."

On whether the person he would look at would be from outside the team:

"Yes sir."

On whether P Andy Lee could handle the kicking duties:

"I don't think so."

Week 15 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Eagles

Florida Danny — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:35:38 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you missed my Formula for Success post, you can read it here.

I have to admit. When I sat down to analyze the statistical matchups for today's game, I figured that it would be a really depressing next few hours. I totally thought that this game was going to be overrun by PHI strengths matched up against SF weaknesses. I thought the stats would tell me this game is going to be the Niners' proverbial east-coast blowout. Thankfully for my psyche, I was pleasantly surprised. It turns out that the Eagles game isn't a lost cause after all. That's not to say the matchups are in favor of the Niners. It just means that we might not have to sit through another 42-3 vomit-fest. First good sign: Mother Nature.

There's a bevy of key matchups today, so no sense in wasting any more time...

TEAM MATCHUP #1: EAGLES OFFENSIVE TREND

This one might surprise you a little bit. I know it sure surprised me. Here's a chart showing the game performances for one Eagles team unit thus far this season:

Given that the Eagles are known as a team that passes the ball a lot more than is typical for the NFL, I never thought that it would be their rush OFF that seems to dictate wins and losses. From the chart, the trend is clear. When the Eagles have an above-average Rush OFF DVOA for the game, they're 9-0; when it's below average, they're 0-4. Since I've been putting these charts together, this is the most clear-cut trend I've found for any 49er opponent. So, as this Eagles trend relates to what the 49ers need to do to win the game, one important place to start is obviously stopping LeSean McCoy and company in the running game.

What makes this matchup, shall we say, veeeeeeery interesting is that, as you all know by now, the 49ers' DEF is one of the best in the NFL. It turns out that, in several rush-related stats, this key matchup is another example of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object. Specifically, whereas the Eagles Rush OFF DVOA is ranked 7th in the league (13.1%), the 49ers' Rush DEF DVOA is ranked 5th (-15.3%). Furthermore, PHI has the #8 OL ALY in the NFL (4.25 OL ypc), but SF's defensive front 7 (DF7) also has the 8th-best ALY (3.73). And when you consider that PHI is a left-side running team (7th-highest % of RB carries to the left side), the matchup is again strength vs. strength (PHI OL LT ALY = 5.21 ypc, 4th; SF DF7 LT ALY = 3.14, 3rd). Taken together, these stats suggest that Eagles need to run the ball efficiently to win, but this plays right into the 49ers' stout run-stopping hands. Throw in the freezing temperature at game time, and we might just have a game that's a lot closer than people expect.

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for an unexpected stay-in-the-playoff-hunt victory against PHI...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: OFFENSIVE TRENCHES

The Eagles aren't the only ones who will have to win a battle of the trenches in order to win the game; the Niners will too. However, for SF's OFF, it'll be an uphill battle. That's because PHI's DF7 has a nearly across-the-board statistical advantage against SF's much-maligned OL. Here are the relevant stats:

Overall ALY - SF's OL is ranked #31 at 3.42 ypc; PHI's DF7 is ranked #6 at 3.58 ypc.
C/G ALY - Where the Niners like to run most frequently, SF's OL is ranked 30th at 3.44 ypc; PHI's DF7 is ranked #8 at 3.59 ypc.
Stuffed Rate - SF's OL is ranked #30, with 23.0% of their RB carries resulting in zero or negative yardage; PHI's DF7 is ranked #5 at 23.9%.
ASR - Although definitely improving, SF's OL is still ranked 25th at 8.1%; PHI's DF7 is ranked 9th at 7.2%.

So, all in all, SF's OL needs to outperform this matchup - just like they did against the Cardinals - in order for the 49ers to come out of Philly with a win. Well, more accurately, winning the game necessitates either the OL winning in the trenches or Frank Gore overcoming an OL loss in the trenches.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: 1ST DOWN OFFENSE

This matchup represents another episode of When 2nd-Down Pass Defenses Attack! Specifically, the 49ers' pass OFF has a ridiculously bad matchup in 2nd-down passing situations, so the key for SF is to perform efficiently on 1st down, and thereby avoid being prey to PHI's predator. The bone-crushing, flesh-eating details are as follows:

Overall 2nd-Down DVOA - SF's OFF is #31 at -25.5%; PHI's DEF is #1 at -30.1%.
2nd-Down Pass DVOA - SF's OFF is dead-last in the NFL at -34.3%; PHI's DEF is again #1 at -48.4%.
2nd & Long DVOA - SF's OFF is #31 at -36.0%; PHI's DEF is again #1 at -56.2%.

The picture painted by these stats is that PHI's pass DEF is the best in the league on 2nd down, and, because their opponents tend to be in passing situations on 2nd & Long, their DEF is the best in the NFL on 2nd down overall. The converse is true for the 49ers' OFF. They're often in 2nd & Long - thank you "Gore up-the-middle for no gain" - and therefore pass the ball a lot on 2nd down, with this specific inefficiency adversely affecting their overall 2nd-down performance stats. So, if the 49ers are going to win this game, a key contribution must be made by their 1st-down OFF: Don't put yourselves in 2nd & Long!

TEAM MATCHUP #4: RED ZONE OFFENSE

Think back to the Niners' last road game, which was against the Seahawks. What do you remember from the early part of that game? I seem to recall that they had an unfortunate - albeit officiating-induced - 0-point trip into SEA's red zone. Well, against PHI, this simply cannot happen if the 49ers are going to win. That's because PHI has somewhat of a counterintuitive "break but don't bend" DEF. Specifically, whereas their DEF is very stingy between the 20s, they are horrible if/when their opponent reaches the red zone.

To boot, it's not just a matter of being bad vs. the pass or the run in the red zone: SF has a favorable matchup in both. Namely, whereas the Niners' pass OFF is ranked 10th in Red Zone DVOA (34.6%), the Eagles' pass DEF is ranked 26th (35.6%). Similarly, whereas the Niners' run OFF is ranked 9th in Red Zone DVOA (23.5%), the Eagles' run DEF is ranked 23rd (7.5%). Put these together, and the 49ers' OFF has a clear strength vs. weakness matchup against the Eagles' DEF: SF's OFF is ranked 5th in Overall Red Zone DVOA (21.4%), whereas PHI's DEF is ranked 28th (21.3%). In other words, the Niners simply cannot afford to come away from their (likely rare) trips to the red zone empty-handed.

TEAM MATCHUP #5: PUNT COVERAGE

This marks the first time I've ever brought up ST in the matchup post. The reason for it finally emerging this week is pretty clear given the show DeSean Jackson put on against the New York Giants last week. Also, don't forget that Andy Lee and company are the #2 punt coverage unit in the NFL according to DVOA, having gained 13.7 total points worth of field position for the team this season. So, what we have here is the #2 punt coverage unit going against the #1 punt return unit. To ignore this as a key matchup would have been a disservice, especially given the weather conditions that are likely during the game. If this one's going to be a field position struggle, the Niners' punt coverage unit will play a non-trivial role in the outcome of that struggle.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. PHI PASS DEF

The past few games, the 49ers' pass OFF has revolved around Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, i.e., they've received the bulk of the targets. Well, the Tainted Twosome is probably going to have go their separate ways today, with VD being the Simon to Crabs' Garfunkel. That's because, as if you didn't already know that Asante Samuel is pretty good, the Eagles' DEF is ranked #3 in DVOA against #1 WRs (-37.7%). So, with Crabs being quarantined, VD will have to infect PHI's defense instead. The good news here is that PHI's DEF is ranked 24th in Yards Allowed Per TE Target (7.6 Y/T). Unfortunately, PHI's DEF is also a just-below-elite 11th in DVOA vs. TE. Therefore, what this means is that, although VD's targets are unlikely to be very efficient overall, he must make a handful of them count in a big way.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: LEONARD WEAVER VS. SF PASS DEF

Never thought you'd be seeing this matchup described as "key," eh? Well, this is what I consider to be one of those "attention to detail" kinds of things that I talked about in my Formula for Success post this week. It's clearly not obvious that Weaver is an integral part of the Eagles' pass OFF. After all, except for when Tom Rathman was playing for the 49ers, FBs don't tend to be integral to any pass OFF! However, Weaver has shown flashes of effectiveness in recent games, and, most of all, he absolutely killed the Niners in their home game against the Seahawks last season; seemingly out of nowhere. Don't think for one second that Andy Reid ignored the film from that game when coming up with his plan for this one. And don't think Weaver sat quietly in team meetings without mentioning his exploits against the Niners last season. In other words, "The Weaver Advantage" is one detail I'm almost positive PHI has paid attention to in their preparation for today's game. I really hope the 49ers' pass DEF, with their #26 DVOA vs. RBs (23.1%), paid just as much attention. I'll be watching this one closely.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-Quarter OFF (and DEF) vs. PHI 1st-Quarter DEF (and OFF)...If you read my posts regularly, you know how much I preach about playing efficiently in the 1st quarter, especially on the road. This game is definitely going to test the theory because, whereas PHI (on both sides of the ball) are ridiculously good in the 1st quarter, the 49ers (as we all know by now) are, shall we say, not good. Specifically, when the Niners have the ball in the 1st quarter against PHI, it will be a weakness vs. strength matchup between the #29 1st-quarter OFF (-32.3%) and the #3 1st-quarter DEF (-19.6%). When the Eagles have the ball in the 1st quarter against SF, it will be a strength vs. strength matchup between the #7 1st-quarter OFF (26.0%) and the #8 1st-quarter DEF (-11.7%). These stats suggest that, if this game is going to remain within reach for the Niners, it's up to their OFF to overcome a disadvantageous matchup, and it's up to their DEF to perform up to one of its strengths.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. PHI Shotgun DEF...This week, it's déjà vu all over again. Just like in the Cardinals game, the Niners' OFF faces an opposing DEF that's (a) really good at stopping shotgun and (b) faced a lot of shotgun this season. In fact, PHI's DEF is probably an even worse shotgun matchup for the Niners than ARI's DEF was. Specifically, 40.3% of PHI's defensive snaps have come against OFF's lined up in shotgun formation, and their DEF DVOA on such plays is a 5th-ranked -15.6%. Furthermore, remember that, against the Cardinals, the Niners' shotgun OFF was pedestrian at best. Therefore, I don't foresee a ton of efficiency coming out of SF when they line up in shotgun. And, given the weather, I wouldn't be shocked if they went back to their Shaun Hill days of a 70/30 under-the-center vs. shotgun split.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Remain immovable in rush DEF.
Outperform their matchup in the offensive trenches.
Be efficient in 1st-down OFF.
Maximize red zone opportunities on OFF.
Win the battle to end all battles in punt coverage.
Emphasize production over efficiency in VD targets.
Be prepared for Leonard Weaver.
Come out scoring in the 1st quarter.
Run more plays from under center, or at least outperform their matchup when they are in shotgun.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following key matchups will have THE BIGGEST IMPACT on a 49er victory against the Eagles today?

Five questions with the San Francisco 49ers

JasonB — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 11:00:26 -0000

by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

9 days ago: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, left, greets Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, right, at the end of their NFL football game in San Francisco, Monday, Dec. 14, 2009. San Francisco won the game 24-9. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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This week the San Francisco 49ers travel across the country into the apparently soon to be frozen tundra of Lincoln Financial Field. In anticipation of that game, I traded some questions with Fooch of the great niners blog Niners Nation.

Check out over there for my answers to his questions.

Since we don't have a Cardinal on our helmet, can we expect the Niners not to be super motivated this weekend? I kid sort of... But seriously, is it me or have their two best efforts by this year been against the Cards?

I think part of the reason (a big part) for the strong performances against Arizona is the fact that they're a divisional foe. They see them twice a year, every year, and I think that makes it easier to figure them out, and not get caught off guard each year. However, they've actually put together some other impressive efforts. They gave up a lot of yards to Peyton Manning but sacked him 3 times (a season high at that point for Manning) and gave up no passing touchdowns to Manning. They put up a strong effort against Brett Favre and the Packers. The 49ers problem has been inconsistency at times. They blew a very winnable game against Seattle that would have made this game an even bigger wildcard battle. Instead, the 49ers are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, looking to just stay alive.

More after the jump.

The 49ers haven't been a very good road team this year, with just one win and that coming against the aforementioned Cards in week one. Is that on the coaching? The youth? Bad luck? I'd imagine traveling across the country on a short week won't help.

The biggest concern I have, aside from facing DeSean Jackson, is having to deal with him and the rest of the Eagles in a 10am pacific time start. The 49ers, and other west coast teams struggle with the early starts. While the NFL has helped teams like the Patriots in packaging west coast trips into one long road trip, the 49ers, Seahawks and others, get screwed with early games and the NFL doesn't really give a crap. The 49ers road woes overall have come in games that the team could have won. The problem has been a mix of everything from coaching issues to execution, to some pretty hideous luck.

Is the QB who is going to eventually lead the 49ers back to the postseason on the roster right now?

I think so. Alex Smith will likely be the starting QB in 2010, and with the addition of some offensive line help, it might be enough to get this team back to the playoffs. Nate Davis may or may not be the long term answer for the 49ers, but for now, I think Alex Smith can help guide this team to the playoffs. Maybe he's not a franchise QB, but he's definitely a solid option. The 49ers are long shots to make the playoffs, this year, but I expect a playoff appearance next season behind Alex Smith.

What are the big holes on the roster right now?

Offensive line is far and away the biggest issue to be addressed this coming offseason. Whatever offense the team settles on, they need to improve the line to keep Alex Smith on his feet and Frank Gore finding holes. That has been the biggest issue this season.

Beyond that, the team could use some help in the secondary. Other than that, we've seen an improvement in the pass rush with the trio of Parys Haralson, Manny Lawson and Ahmad Brooks. An extra body could be helpful, but much of the defense seems to be settling in.

Give us one guy who we probably don't know but will surprise us this Sunday. Bear in mind that we know Patrick Willis & Frank Gore...

CB Shawntae Spencer isn't really a "young guy" anymore, but expect to see him covering DeSean Jackson for much of the day. Alongside him, we might see CB Tarell Brown get some coverage on Jackson. Given Jackson's performance in special teams, expect to be impressed by the leg of punter Andy Lee. He's got impressive distance and hang time. Finally, keep an eye out for nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin. He doesn't put up the crazy stats, but he is an a big-time impact player against the run.

49ers-Eagles: Can the 49ers even hope to contain DeSean Jackson?

Fooch — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:06:34 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

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On Tuesday, Frank Gore was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week following an impressive 167 yard, 1 TD performance in the 49ers win over the Arizona Cardinals. As was briefly mentioned, some folks were surprised to not see DeSean Jackson's name on the award given his incredible performance against the Giants on Sunday Night Football. Well, Jackson ended up being named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week for his punt return touchdown.

As much as I loved Frank Gore's performance, if there were an award for overall player of the week, DeSean Jackson would have had as strong a case as any player with his punt return TD, along with his 178 receiving yards and receiving touchdown. I'd say that's a rather adequate performance, wouldn't you?

The 2009 Eagles have put together some impressive offensive performances at times and have a host of intriguing weapons with which the 49ers will have to contend. At this point, the biggest threats are in the passing game. It sounds like Brian Westbrook will likely be out again this week, leaving the remaining Philly running backs who have been rather inconsistent at times, and downright awful the last couple weeks.

When looking at the Eagles passing game, Donovan McNabb is guiding things and Brent Celek is certainly a very solid tight end. However, at this point DeSean Jackson is the guy who probably scares me the most. Given his career at Cal that's not exactly shocking, but it's still the biggest issue to be addressed at this point. Jackson can certainly be contained, but it takes a whole lot of work on a whole lot of fronts. After all, he's continued to impress as a punt returner, and has blown past cornerbacks with ease much of the 2009 season.

After the jump we look at DeSean Jackson the punt returner, and DeSean Jackson the wide receiver.

DeSean Jackson - Punt Returner
As solid as Jackson can be as a wide receiver, the punt return game is where he is often his most dangerous. To date Jackson is averaging 17.7 yards per punt return. In 10 of 13 games he's had at least one 20+ yard punt return. Generally punt returning can be boom or bust for most teams. And yet I consider myself surprised when Jackson doesn't have a big return in a game, even if he doesn't take it the house.

Of course, this plays somewhat into the 49ers wheelhouse given the fact that they have one of the best in the business in Andy Lee. Lee gets an impressive combination of distance and hang time that usually allows him to avoid over-kicking the punt return coverage. Lee is 2nd in the NFL in net punt yards, and the 49ers are 14th in the league in punt return average at 8.3 yards. While that is not fantastic, it's still solid enough. The 49ers will be facing their toughest test of the season in Jackson. When a team faces a great punt returner, the team will aim for shorter punts out of bounds rather than give up the big return. I'd imagine initially the 49ers are going to be willing to play with fire and see if Andy Lee and his punt coverage team can contain the best returner in the game right now.

DeSean Jackson - Wide Receiver
Jackson was certainly a solid receiver in college, but I always thought he did most of his damage as a return man. I was able to pull up his ESPN college stats page, and it's an intriguing group of numbers. His final season saw an increase his receptions, but a sizable decrease in yards per catch. I recall some complaints about his receiving skills his final season, but nothing of the sort regarding his punt return skills.

However, since taking his game to the NFL, I wonder if he's starting to turn into a better receiver? His yards per catch this season surpasses his best year in college and it seems like we're always treated to footage of him having to slow down after burning a receiver after Donovan McNabb seems to underthrow the speedy receiver. Whatever the case may be, I feel more impressed with him as a receiver in the NFL than I did when he was a receiver at Cal. Maybe at Cal he felt he didn't need to bring his A-game every week, or maybe there's some other reason. Either way, he's impressing.

Of course, that means somebody on the 49ers will get the pleasure of covering Jackson on Sunday. This past week saw the 49ers do a masterful job against the dynamic Arizona receiving duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. I'm guessing at this point we'll see Shawntae Spencer covering Jackson. The Eagles will be without Jeremy Maclin this Sunday, but could have Kevin Curtis in the lineup. It sounds like the top 3 receivers for Philly will be Jackson, Reggie Brown and Jason Avant. It's a bit of speculation, but I suppose the matchups would be Spencer/Jackson, Bly/R. Brown and T. Brown/Avant.

When you've become the #1 corner, as it appears is the case with Spencer, you're going to face a team's #1 guy most every week. Spencer did a good job last week, although he certainly had to benefit from the beating Kurt Warner took for much of the game. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep up with speedy Jackson all game long.

DeSean Jackson can certainly be contained. He's had his share of poor performances, but right now he's playing well, and just as importantly, his quarterback also seems to be playing fairly well. During this 4-game winning streak, Donovan McNabb has put up very solid numbers, even if they don't blow you away at first sight. The question now is if the 49ers can slow down what has been a rather prolific scoring team. If they're going to do this, it will likely require finding a way to shut down both DeSean Jacksons.

Golden Nuggets: Guess I gotta face it sometime..

Ninjames — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

Good morning, folks! Sorry I've been sketchy on the links but I've been keeping busy, to be sure! Thanks to Fooch again for covering for me. Still, I had to sleep early for a good cause. If you're wondering what it is, make sure to come on over to this site tomorrow morning at 7 AM PT, I should have my post up by then. All I can say is it was a very positive experience for me. That being said it has been nice to be deterred from say, the current 49ers team but I suppose I have to look at this season at some point. I'm done crying over it, to be honest. This team needs to finish strong, someone told me that over the phone yesterday, and it's true. Very true, I'm looking for as strong a finish as possible and improvement from Alex Smith so we know what we have going into the 2010 season. This isn't a bad team we've got here, we have too many good players to just waste that talent. Best I can do is look forward to Monday Night and hope I don't leave Candlestick disappointed. That would seriously suck. Here's your links.

And so retires my favorite 49er of the last ten years--Jeff Ulbrich. He has nothing left to prove for 49er fans, a great player and a great guy. (PressDemocrat.com)

So it seems Great America is suing the city of Santa Clara, claiming the stadium deal is illegal as per their agreement with the theme park. (ESPN.com)

The 49ers placed Kentwan Balmer on IR and signed a replacement, Baraka Atkins. As previously a huge fan of the MK series, man this guy is setting himself up to make me very disappointed. Still, I actually think he could be good. (PressDemocrat.com)

The 49ers are the only team that can stop the Cardinals from getting into the playoffs now. Not sure that it will happen... (NBCBayArea.com)

There was plenty of reasons the 49ers released Allen Rossum, I fully support the release. I don't, however, support using Arnaz Battle on them. That man is useless. I want him gone, forever. Am I bitter? Heck. Yes. (SFGate.com)

Alex Smith is seizing control down the home stretch. I certainly hope he's changed for sure. (SacBee.com)

Maiocco has his every-player review from the loss against Seattle. (PressDemocrat.com)

"Drops Drop 49ers From Playoff Race." How creative. (SFGate.com)

Well this is depressing. 49ers playoff drought is among the longest in the NFL. (MercuryNews.com)

A look ahead at the Monday Night game against the Cardinals. (49ers.com)

Coach Singletary is taking the blame for the fumbled punt return. (SFGate.com)

He also has a list of grievances for the NFL. (SFGate.com)

Andy Lee: Hitting His Stride. (49ers.com)

49ers return game: Putting the "special" in special teams

Fooch — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:00:28 -0000

Hopefully nobody takes offense to "special." I came close to posting a short bus graphic because that's how far Brandon Jones and Arnaz Battle have pushed me. As ugly as yesterday's game was, the biggest momentum change aside from Gore's fumble was probably the screwed up reverse attempt on the first quarter punt. The 49ers had the Seahawks on the ropes and could have sent them to the canvas on that drive. Instead, the drive doesn't even start and Seattle gets the shortest of fields to convert a touchdown.

As much as that reverse bugged folks, the special teams woes go beyond just that one bad play call. Special teams encompasses kicking, punting, returning, and coverage associated with all of that. For the purposes of this post, we'll ignore kicking and punting, because Andy Lee is God and Joe Nedney is sufficiently reliable as the kicker. Rather, I wanted to focus on the return game. I don't even know if you could call it a return game when you're either losing yards or fumbling the return.

Before getting into the ugly, I would like to say that I think Josh Morgan could be on the verge of entrenching himself as one of the team's primary kickoff return men. He's only returned 5 kicks, but he's put together a solid early body of work. His five returns have resulted in 174 yards, good for an average of 34.8. One return was for 76 yards, but his remaining four returns have still been solid enough. While touchdowns in the return game are great, it's really simply a matter of getting some decent starting field position. Thus far, Josh Morgan has done that on a consistent basis. The final four games will hopefully help us determine if he can become a long term return option.

The same cannot be said for the punt return game. I don't think it's even good enough to call it bad. At this point, the best term would probably be abysmal. Arnaz Battle did have a 31 yard return, but it was negated by a block in the back call against everyone's favorite pariah, Mark Roman. The 49ers final punt return numbers yesterday? 5 punts for -3 yards. Really?

I know people have been complaining about the release of Allen Rossum. While he was awesome last year, clearly the team saw a reason to get rid of him, and were somewhat justified by the Cowboys also releasing him. That's not the best reasoning, but it'll have to do for now. However, the point of this post is to consider how the 49ers can improve their punt return game going forward. Battle struggled mightily yesterday, but part of that was due to not getting much in the way of blocking in front of him.

I'm not arguing for bringing Battle back in 2010, but I also think there are other issues to consider. Rather, it seems like the team needs an influx of talent that goes beyond just the return men. Would that be a few low profile signings in free agency? Guys that excel in special teams work (aside from returners) tend to be rather low profile, so I can't see the signings generating a lot of buzz. Honestly, I'm not sure how the team can best go about approaching this in the offseason. Any thoughts?

Send This Arizona Cardinal to the Pro Bowl: Ben Graham

Andrew602 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 10:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Ben Graham has been a steal after the Cardinals picked him up late last season.

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In honor of Ben Graham's 5 punts inside the Titans 20 yard line on Sunday, he is up next for Cardinals Pro Bowl consideration. After the Cardinals shuffled through a several punters last year (and year before!) they settled on the former New York Jets Ben Graham. He immediately provided better punting, something the Cardinals needed down the stretch of the season and in the playoffs. This season he's had a full year under his belt and has had career bests in punts inside the opponents 20 and net average after 11 games. In 2006 Graham had 26 punts downed inside the opponents 20 yard line, while this year he has 30. In 2005 he recorded a 37.9 net average but he's already punting for a 41.1 average going into the Vikings game.

Let's see how he stacks up to the NFC competition.

Punters	Team	Punts	Net Yards	Net Avg	In 20
Andy Lee	SF	66	2,747	41.6	20
Ben Graham	ARI	62	2,546	41.1	30
Donnie Jones	STL	56	2,289	40.9	18
Mat McBriar	DAL	53	2,147	40.5	29

A mere 0.5 yards is what separates San Francisco's Andy Lee's net average from Graham's. Graham, however, has ten more punts downed inside the 20 while attempting four less punts then Lee. Donnie Jones has a slim chance considering he's on the 1-10 Rams and bad teams rarely send many players to the Pro Bowl (Steven Jackson goes before Jones!). The biggest competition on the list is Mat McBriar from the Dallas Cowboys as he already has made the Pro Bowl with Dallas; he is having another solid year after coming off of foot surgery. Graham has slowly been improving over the coarse of the season. Some consider that Graham doesn't have a chance to make the Pro Bowl in Miami but it's likely he will if he can keep up this same pace and the Cardinals defense can utilize the field position he creates (with ample help from LaRod Stephens-Howling et. al.). Do you think Ben Graham can be the first Cardinal punter in the Pro Bowl since Scott Player in 2000?

2010 Pro Bowl Ballot: Your 49ers need you

Fooch — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:14 -0000

Consider this your daily reminder to vote for your San Francisco 49ers on the 2010 Pro Bowl ballot. Remember that you can vote for as few or as many positions on the ballot as you want. So if you just want to vote for Vernon Davis, Aubrayo Franklin, Patrick Willis, and Andy Lee among others, it's quite simple to do. Most days it will be a simple FanShot, but for today I thought I'd put together the cases for a few of our favorite 49ers. I realize most people aren't all that interested in the Pro Bowl game itself, but national recognition is always welcome, especially when the players truly deserve it.

Vernon Davis: Davis continued his breakout season with 6 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville. On the season, Davis has 57 receptions, 670 yards and 9 touchdowns. Those numbers in the NFC for respectively third, first and first. Davis also has 10 catches for over twenty yards, which is also good for first in the league. There are bigger national names (Gonzalez and Witten), but I really think Davis is having the best year of any NFC tight end.

Patrick Willis: What else needs to be said about Mr. Consistently Great? Even as the defense around him improves, Bamm Bamm continues to put up obscene tackle totals, while make big plays across the field, all game long. Among linebackers, Willis is second in the NFC with 107 total tackles, tied for eleventh with 3 sacks (tied for most among NFC ILBs), tied for first with 8 pass deflections, second in interceptions, is one of two NFC ILBs with a touchdown, and also has forced a pair of fumbles. The man remains an absolute playmaking beast.

Andy Lee: Andy Lee for MVP indeed. Lee's leg is a freakish weapon for the 49ers. We'd all like more offense, but if the offense stalls out, we know Lee will more likely than not pin a team back. Jacksonville even elected to take a 5 yard penalty at the end of a return rather than let Lee have a second chance to pin them deep. Among NFC punters, Lee is first in gross and net average, and this comes on a league-leading 66 punts. Not a great stat for the offense, but it shows an amazing level of consistency from Lee. He's second with 10 downed punts, and fourth with 20 punts inside the 20. On returns, opposing teams are only getting 5 or so yards per, showing an ability to not out-kick his coverage.

Aubrayo Franklin: Franklin has quietly (outside of the Bay Area it's quiet) put together an immensely entertaining season. A nose tackle in the 3-4 is expected to do a lot of the dirty work, but Franklin has stepped up to become a playmaker for this defense. It's hard to truly assess his work because a lot of time his play involves opening holes for the inside linebackers to make plays. Individually, Franklin has 28 tackles (5 for a loss), 2 sacks and a huge redzone interception against Chicago. However, on top of that is the fact that one could argue he's been a key in the 49ers ability to stuff the inside run. The 49ers have given up 3.6 yards per carry (tied for 2nd in the NFL), and most rushing damage has come outside the tackles. Franklin has either plugged up the middle, or provided space for Willis and Spikes to shut down the middle. Some argue it's a walk-year performance, but he really began building this early last season.

One guy I didn't include, but probably deserves more recognition than he gets is Justin Smith. Smith has 40 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on the season but doesn't get much publicity for the Pro Bowl. The problem for him, like a guy like Aubrayo Franklin, is that a 3-4 defensive end isn't exactly a glamor position. However, every game Justin Smith does something that stands out as a huge play. I think he's a guy worth including on your Pro Bowl ballot. So, when you get a chance, head over and submit your Pro Bowl ballot, multiple times if you'd like. Remember that you don't need to fill out every single position.