SB Nation - Alex Smith

Golden Nuggets: Ready to lose my voice

Ninjames — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:00:24 -0000

Morning, everyone. I'm back, for the second day in a row which means I'm obviously on a roll. No but seriously, I shouldn't be missing any more of these. As for what I've been gone for, make sure you're on here today at 7 AM PT for my post. That being said, I'm not sure what I've got for you today in the way of links. I imagine there aren't too many but hopefully some previews will be rolling in. As always I'll be at the game Monday Night, and I'm really hoping the 49ers pull a win out for me because it's absolutely the worst two hour drive back, with likely an hour added onto that considering it's Monday Night Football and therefore traffic will be killer. I'd like it if someone told me once again that if I lose my voice the 49ers will win because they're 2-0 when people tell me that and I'd like to take a chance and risk that record again. Still, we've still got a couple days of links until then so why don't I just get to what I've got for you on the day, mmkay?

LT Joe Staley returned to practice yesterday and hopes to play on Monday. (PressDemocrat.com)

The 49ers have been in this position before... on the outside looking in to the playoff picture. (Scout.com)

The Cardinals believe the 49ers will go back to featuring Frank Gore in their offense on Monday. (MercuryNews.com)

Two 49ers players are listed on this list of top ten comeback players in the NFL. (FoxSports.com)

Arizona says they're ready for Frank Gore and more. (PressDemocrat.com)

Sando takes another look at the 49ers' offensive philosophy. (ESPN.com)

Samuel Lam had an interview with Jerry Rice, pretty cool stuff. (Examiner.com)

Joe Staley wants his job back sooner rather than later. (PressDemocrat.com)

Coach Singletary is sticking by Jimmy Raye as offensive coordinator. (NFL.com)

The guys over at our resident Cardinals blog are studying up on our Niners... you doing the same for them? (RevengeOfTheBirds.com)

Here's yesterday's edition of Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)

A look at the players who commit the most penalties in the NFC West. (ESPN.com)

QB Alex Smith is improving, but is still flawed. I'm finding it very hard to get behind Smith as the 49ers QB for 2010, but I'm supporting him more and more each day. (MercuryNews.com)

49ers-Cardinals: Thursday Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:35:19 -0000

Since the game is a day later than normal we're rolling out the injury reports a day later. Nothing huge here, other than Joe Staley getting back to some limited practice. He's still hoping to play on Monday, so we'll see how his practice reps play out. I've posted Mike Singletary and Alex Smith's post-practice press transcripts after the jump. In his intro, Singletary addressed Frank Gore's contributions to the offense going forward, and had several comments about the secondary given the Cardinals impressive receiver trio.

49ers
Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)

Did not Participate in Practice
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
DT Justin Smith (not injury related)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)

Limited Participation in Practice
SS Michael Lewis (quadricep)
OT Joe Staley (knee)

Full Participation in Practice
WR Brandon Jones (thumb)

Cardinals
Out (Definitely Will Not Play
LB Will Davis (knee)

Did not Participate in Practice
RB Jason Wright (illness)

Limited Participation in Practice
DT Alan Branch (ankle)
P Ben Graham (left groin)
RB Tim Hightower (thumb)
DE Kenny Iwebema (thumb)
RB Dan Kreider (thigh)
K Neil Rackers (right groin)
TE Stephen Spach (knee)

Full Participation in Practice
OT Mike Gandy (pelvis)

Coach Singletary and Alex Smith press conference transcripts after the jump...

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Walk Thru - December 10, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening statements:

"Good morning. I'll talk about injuries here, try to get that clear. Of course you know, [DT] Kentwan Balmer had surgery yesterday - just basically repaired a torn labrum. [CB Marcus] Hudson, back is a little sore. That will be day-to-day. [CB Nate] Clements, shoulder, is out. [LT Joe] Staley will practice today only in the individual period - just kind of bring him back slowly and see how it goes from day-to-day, and we'll go from there. The other day, just in case anybody asks a question about the officials and all that other stuff, in my mind, Seattle's done. I'm done with them. I'm done with the officials. I'm done with all that stuff. I've said what I said. I stand by what I said, but I move forward, on to Arizona, and that's what I'm going to talk about for the rest of the time.

When I look at our defense, the thing that we have to do this week in order to be successful is we have to be able to put pressure on [QB Kurt] Warner. We have to be able to make him move. He can't sit back there and just throw the ball to his receivers. On the other side of that, our DBs have to make sure that we're physical with their wide outs. We have to get our hands on those receivers to allow our guys time to get there. When they have great success, the quarterback is just able to drop back in 7-on-7, as we do out here, and just throw the ball to receivers. It's all timing, and Kurt Warner is a really bright guy, really smart. He knows where those receivers are going to be. He has the confidence in them. They have a good rapport, and those receivers do a good job of getting open, and he does a great job of throwing to them open. So, for us, we just really have to focus on making sure that we do those two things.

On the other side of it, some of the changes that I've seen in their offense since the last time we played them, they're really trying to focus more on a balanced attack. They're not there yet, but they're trying to focus more on a balanced attack. Both of those running backs are running hard. They're running downhill and they're doing a good job being physical, finishing their runs. I think that's where they are right now as an offense.

For us offensively, we continue to run the offense that we've been running the last couple of weeks and try to include [RB] Frank [Gore] going forward to create balance for us. Maybe that balance doesn't mean 50-50. Maybe it's 35-65, whatever it might be. 70-30 or whatever. But, we're going to go forward with it and continue to have [QB] Alex Smith do the things that he's been doing, trying to continue to get the timing of the receivers down, getting a rhythm for our offense, finding out what is the right balance, finding out - and we really won't know what that is until we get into the game and find out how Arizona plans to attack what we're doing. The first time we played them, their front really put a lot of pressure on our guys, particularly the three-technique, No. 90 [Darnell Dockett]. He got off the ball and really applied a lot of pressure. I think the rapport between [RG] Chilo [Rachal] and [RT Adam] Snyder is better. Hopefully, this time around we do a better job. I just think it's important for us across the board on the offensive line of scrimmage to really communicate well, and we're at home, so the noise will not be a factor. Let's get out there and do a better job and do the best we can to control their front."

On who has the role of stopping WR Larry Fitzgerald this week:

"It may be [CB] Dre' Bly. It may be [CB] Shawntae Spencer. We'll figure it out before game time, and, you're right, [CB] Nate [Clements] has done a great job anytime we've played Arizona. But, I think it's important to see our guys step up, whoever is on him, whether it's Fitzgerald, whether it's [WR Anquan] Boldin, and get our hands on them, do a good job and let's see if we can control what they do."

On whether he thinks the 49ers cornerbacks have the ability to play the press coverage and be physical:

"I think the last couple of weeks we've done more man coverage. I think we've done more in challenging the receivers since the Green Bay game. I don't think they've played off as much. Do you mean the last couple of weeks as well?"

On the press coverage in the Green Bay game:

"OK. I think our guys are better at pressing than they are at playing off. I think the last couple of weeks, I think have shown that. We'll continue to do the things that I think will help us be successful in the game, and really, we have to mix it up. You can't get up there and put your hands on them all the time. We just have to make sure that in the game, at those times we feel we can do it, we've got to get up there when we're up there and do a good job."

On whether Bly or Spencer can play that type of coverage:

"They have to. It's not a matter of can they do it. They have to because if we don't, we'll get run out of the stadium. We have to get up there. Any team that does not play physical on their receivers and not get their hands on the receivers will not be successful winning the football game. So, we have to."

On what he saw on film from Arizona last week disrupting Minnesota QB Brett Favre:

"I think for Arizona, I think they really did a good job scheming and blitzing Brett Favre. I think they did a good job at times of just really mixing up the coverage, being disciplined in their coverage and making Brett Favre work a little bit more, realizing he is a veteran-type guy. They just got after him. I think the other thing is they really controlled the running game pretty early and made Brett Favre a little more predictable."

On whether he has to redefine the goals for the team for the final quarter of the season:

"I think the goal that I had for our team at the very beginning of the season was to be the best team, at this time of year, that we could possibly be. I think, in terms of redefining the goal, in my mind it's not over until it's over. So, we're going to go out Monday night, and as far as the playoff hopes, yes, it's very frustrating where that is. It's nobody's fault but ours. For our guys, it's just a matter of going out there Monday night and let's just play the best game that we can play. We're not going to sit back and, ‘If we win, if we lose.' No. We're going to go out, and we're going to play. So, for me this time of year, the most important thing is we're playing our best football, and that's really what I want to strive to do before the season is over."

On whether he's close to doing that:

"I think we're better. I think the closest we came to it was the Jacksonville game, and I think last week we took a step backwards simply because of the penalties, simply because of the turnovers. That's something that we have to do a better job at. This time of year, really any time of the year, the thing that I really want to strive for our team to be, is a smart football team and a team that does not turn the ball over, and we didn't accomplish that last week. Hopefully, the next four games, starting this Monday night, we can reestablish that, what we came out of Jacksonville with, and go forward with that."

On how many of the drops from last week he holds the receivers responsible for:

"Because this is the professional level, I think any time that a ball is in the area of a receiver, he needs to catch it. Hopefully that answered your question."

On whether the Seahawks going away from CB Shawntae Spencer's side was a sign of respect:

"I don't really know. If it's respect, it's great. If they felt they could go at Dre' Bly more because of [WR T.J.] Houshmandzadeh, that matchup - if they felt they could get more over there. I thought Dre' held his own pretty well. I think Shawntae has done a pretty decent job all year, and, hopefully we can finish that way."

On whether the best defense against Arizona's offense is to keep them on the sidelines:

"I think the biggest thing for our offense is to go out and execute. I think if we just execute, whether we're passing the ball, whether we're running the ball, I think we'll be fine in this game. Certainly, we want to continue to move the chains. Certainly, we would like to keep their offense on the sideline. But, I just think the biggest word this week for us is execution, on both sides of the ball."

On whether the fact that Arizona can clinch the division with a win is a part of the talking points this week:

"No, the only thing I'm talking to our team about is winning. It's not about all the other stuff. They can clinch, they can - no. We're just going to go out and do the very best job we can of winning the football game."

QB Alex Smith
Post-Walk Thru - December 10, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On the offense using more ball control as a game plan against Arizona:

"Absolutely, I think that ball control comes in many different forms. I don't think that it necessarily means grinding it in on the run. I think that ball control is about moving the chains, so whatever way you can get that done, getting first downs run or pass, that's what is going to keep the opposing offense off of the field."

On the teams poor third down completion percentage in last week's game at Seattle:

"There's probably not just one thing, it's probably a lot of things, lack of execution. We did put ourselves in some difficult third downs at times. In a few of those backed-up situations, you're kind of limited on third down as well. It was probably a number of things to why that statistic ended up coming out like that."

On whether the third down statistic got his attention when looking at the stat sheet at the end of the game:

"That jumped out at me, absolutely. In fact, I didn't even necessarily get that impression out there on the field. I guess I really had no idea. It felt like we were moving the ball well at times. I know that we struggled there a little bit in the third quarter, but didn't realize that it was that bad."

On looking to prove critics wrong from his last Monday night game at Seattle in 2007:

"To tell you the truth, I haven't really thought about it. Every week is such a big week in the NFL. The fact that, all of a sudden, this one is a little different in the sense that this one will be played on Monday, so the weeks change. But other than that, I haven't put much thought into it. We played a couple of weeks ago on Thursday night, and we already had a taste of the national TV spotlight so to speak. We're just trying to go out there and play good football."

On his past issues concerning his throwing fundamentals and how he has improved since then:

"I think that there were a lot of things going on at that time. I think that there was a lot of compensation going on throughout that whole process and the weeks leading up to that with me. So, absolutely, I guess that looking back, there probably was a lot fundamentally that wasn't right, but I didn't necessarily go back and study it or anything. I think moving on from there, it was a matter of getting healthy and getting right. I imagine looking back that it wasn't right, you start to compensate, so you start to adjust, and things change."

On working with different QB coaches throughout his career:

"You start there from building your fundamentals and when you take a chunk of time off from throwing and you come back in a controlled environment and come out here on the practice field and get to really start from scratch and you get to build those fundamentals and basically start over from there."

On whether his fundamentals are where he wants them to be at this point:

"I'm getting there. I think I've definitely improved in some areas. You're never finished with it. It's one of those things you're constantly working on. Either they're improving or they are getting worse. It's one of those types of things, you constantly have to work on and harp on it to keep those fundamentals where you want them."

On whether he considers himself a different player than before his injury:

"Yes, absolutely - I'm the same player but there's been a lot of growth and change since then. I've learned a lot, I've been through a lot. I think I see the game better. A lot of things that we've talked about, I feel like I react better. I have improved in a lot of areas out there."

On finally finding somewhat of a groove and tempo to his game:

"Yes, I think so. I really felt that I was heading in that direction a couple of years back and yes, got sidetracked and in a roundabout way to where I am now. I definitely am seeing things the best that I have ever seen them, reacting to them, understanding what I am getting, what it is that we're trying to do, all of those things that go into playing quarterback and decision making. This is probably the best that I've felt."

On whether production is what it really comes down to:

"Yes it is, and that's something that you want to look at, productivity and statistics, but at the same time, you're not living in the statistical world either. In the end, it's about going out there, playing football and trying to win a game. I think if you get caught up in the stats too much, it can actually be harmful."

On facing Arizona's defense for the second time this season and the concerns:

"They're pretty solid all the way around, I think. They have a lot of good players across the board. The thing I see on film is that they play tremendously fast. They give a lot of different looks in the secondary. They disguise well. I think they are very solid up front. They get off the ball and I think both corners are playing pretty well right now. I think they are a good test for us. I think they're going to challenge us and we'll have to challenge them as well."

On the team's concern of Arizona winning the NFC West with a win on Monday night:

"At this point, it's a must win anyway, so it doesn't really change anything. I guess that comes secondary to the fact that we've got to win the game."

On how a quarterback builds in a game when throws are dropped:

"I try not to get into it. I try not to think about it. Those are things outside of your control. That's one thing

you learn over the years. It does no good, especially during game situations, to really worry about things like that. Do your job to the best of your ability. Go out there and try to execute it. Give your team a chance to win, give us a chance to score some points. Those things are going to happen, dropped balls are going to happen just like errant passes are going to happen. You try to minimize them as much as possible."

On whether he is aware of how he reacts to a dropped pass:

"I guess sometimes you don't always realize what you might do, but as a quarterback, obviously, you are always trying to keep good body language out on the field."

On the offense scheme changing throughout the season and similarities to Arizona's offense:

"I don't know, I guess I haven't had time to really compare. I think that if you looked at the run-pass ratio the last couple of weeks, teams might say that. But I think we're striving to be unique in our own way. I think, and I go back to this it really needs to be balanced to do what it takes to win, do what it takes to score points, to be productive."

On saying anything to the WR on the sideline after dropping a pass:

"If I say anything at all, it's encouragement. Those guys have enough to think about. They make plays and catch balls sometimes that shouldn't be caught so, I know they're working at it and they don't need to hear anything from me, as far as catching the football. They know, we're all professionals, they know when they made a mistake or should have made a play."

On why TE Vernon Davis has become a more productive tight end this year and how vital he is to the offense:

"I think time is probably a good answer. He's had time to grow and understand and develop his game and he's worked hard at it. Over the course of that time, as he's made plays, you get more and more confident ok about what he can and can't do. I think right now, he's playing really well, playing fast, making a lot of plays for us. I think you gain that confidence by doing it, and that does take time."

On whether the only way the team can achieve balance is by forcing the defense to go into nickel:

"Potentially, it's the same the other way. If you're running the ball, and you're heavy run, you're running enough to get them to overload the box, you can throw the ball. It's either way, and it changes over the course of the game depending on the situation, third down, red zone - all of those types of things constantly change over the course of the game. It's a give and take, absolutely of what you're doing."

Who would you take from the Arizona Cardinals?

Fooch — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:00:17 -0000

by Paul Connors - AP

View full size photo »

Fooch's Note: Head on over to Revenge of the Birds to see what 49ers they'd grab.

I'd like to thank Andrew over at Revenge of the Birds for passing along what I think is a great idea for a game-week post. We have plenty of discussion about who we like on the 49ers, and who we fear on the opposing team. However, this post allows us to go off into fantasy-land a bit and decide who we might like from an opposing team. In doing this, you can approach it from a variety of angles. You can take a player just because you like that player, no matter what the 49ers current situation is at that position. You can consider who the 49ers might lose in the offseason or positions they need to improve. If you want to take into account the player's contract and look for "realistic" additions, you're free to do that. You can be as realistic or as fantastical (if that's even a word) as you'd like. For this week, here are some of the guys I'd like. Also, at the end I thought I'd throw out some thoughts on the guy I did not choose that many of you might choose...

Larry Fitzgerald, WR: Ok, so this is certainly an obvious choice. But if you're going to take a player off this team, why not take the best? The 49ers have some solid talent at wide receiver, but it's still young and has a lot of room for growth. Imagine a team with Larry Fitzgerald as the #1 receiver, Michael Crabtree #2, and Josh Morgan #3? One reason I like this is the fact that Fitzgerald's contract expires after the 2011 season. Fitzgerald would still be in his prime, but you could conceivably let him walk as your young receivers would hopefully have grown into specific roles. Anyways, I think this is more of a flashy option.

The remaining three are after the jump...

Antrel Rolle, FS: One could say Antrel Rolle has been fire and ice all season long. After struggling a bit as a cornerback, Rolle has transitioned rather nicely over to the free safety position. The 49ers have been looking to Dashon Goldson for ball-hawking skills, but Rolle could be a nice replacement there at free safety. It's still early to completely judge Goldson, but in this instance Rolle could certainly work well.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: I like some aspects of the 49ers secondary, but to have a young guy like DRC in the lineup would certainly provide some long term stability. Right now, the 49ers don't completely know what their long term plans are. Shawntae Spencer has one of the jobs right now, but he's not getting any younger, and is always an injury risk. Nate Clements was demoted before getting injured and might not even be a 49er next year. And Tarell Brown has shown some improvement, but also been inconsistent at times. DRC has his ups and downs, but has done enough in a season and a half to impress me.

Beanie Wells, RB: This was a tough one for me. At this point Tim Hightower actually has better rushing numbers, but Beanie has much more upside. I was hesitant on this one because of Frank Gore. Sure the 49ers want a complementary back to Gore, but I don't know if Wells would fit that role. He and Hightower have split the workload almost right down the middle (119 carries for Hightower, 121 for Wells), and Gore seems to work better as the primary back (when he's actually getting his numbers in). However, I couldn't pass up a talented running back at this point, so that's #4, giving us 2 defensive players and 2 offensive players.

So why didn't I take Kurt Warner? Obviously the 49ers were interested in him this past offseason and I'm sure plenty of you would like to have him on the 49ers roster. However, I chose to not include him for a couple reasons. First, is the development of Alex Smith. He's no Kurt Warner, but he's certainly shown some solid development this season. Second, and more importantly at this point, is the fact that the 49ers offensive line has been rather abysmal at times. Kurt Warner has never been an especially mobile quarterback, and if he was behind this 49ers offensive line, I can't even begin to imagine the type of damage he'd have incurred on sacks.

Behind The Numbers: A Quick Look At The Texans' Defense

bigfatdrunk — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:47:29 -0000

(image via www.nyu.edu)

In this thread, TexasHoosier made a claim that, call him crazy, but he believes the secondary is playing pretty well, Dunta aside. I started looking at the pure, raw numbers, ready to call him crazier than...than....well, crazier than a Texans fan, but I figured that was too cruel. Turns out, the more I dove into the raw numbers, the more interesting the argument.

SPECIAL NOTE: No fancy math used. I don't have time after putting together the numbers, and I just want to get something posted.

Looking at the RAW numbers (emphasis on raw), we've gone from a historically bad defensive football team the first three games of the year to, dare I say, about average?

Here's how we have progressed against the run:

Above, positive numbers are bad for us and negative numbers are good. This is looking at how teams did against our rush defense versus their yearly average. For the year, we've held opponents to 43 yards below their average, or a pretty negligible difference of about 4 yards per game. The biggest problem I see here are pretty massive fluctuations, signaling we lack consistency on stopping the run on a game-by-game basis. However, the trend is definitely positive. We're doing a decent job against the run, and this is reflected by our mid-season winning streak between the Oakland and Buffalo games (Arizona excepted).

Here we are versus the pass:

As with above, positive numbers are bad for our defense and negative are good. I was pretty shocked when I ran these numbers, to be honest. For the first seven games of the season, our pass defense was a sieve. The first two games were ugly, and Jacksonville didn't need to bother passing. Oakland, of course, is Oakland. Then Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, and Alex Smith (!!!) enjoyed nice games against us. Starting with Ryan Fitzpatrick, we've turned things around from a secondary full of holes to one that's not too bad.

Yes, I feel it necessary to not say great or even average. The BE-SFs are clearly a different team with VY at QB, and Indy still dropped 35 on us in the last three quarters. But yes, we are improving. Here's the big picture:

Overall, we are doing a better job keeping our opponents in check. But two huge factors stick out. First:

While we are consistently forcing at least one turnover a game, we need to do more. Also, I find it interesting that, in the beginning of the year, we were forcing fumbles. Now, we are forcing interceptions. I believe this is in large part due to the philosophy of the teams we are playing and when. My conclusion is that teams had success rushing the ball against us early in the year and are now trying to throw more.

The other factor, and to me, it's huge, is our miserable 19 sacks. This is clearly a poor number, ranking us third from the bottom in the league.

Remember that super aggressive defense we were promised by Frank Bush? I don't see it, either. Upgrades at SLB, SS, CB2, and an improved Amobi Okoye seem to be having a greater effect on our improvement than the scheme. And when watching our coverage scheme, I still think I'm watching Richard Smith.

I also can't help but believe that our schedule - we've only played three of the top 10 offenses in our 12 games - is helping cover other problems.

Nevertheless, the improvement on defense is something, and after years of Richard Smith's ineptitude, and this season gone down the tubes, I'll take the improvement and hope there's much more around the corner.

Week 13 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:00:40 -0000

The theme for today's matchup review post, similar to the theme of recent 49er teams, is "what could have been." In 2006, the Niners beat the division-leading Seahawks to pull within 1 game of the division lead at 5-5. They had a pretty favorable stretch of upcoming games against the 4-6 Rams, 6-4 Saints, and 4-6 Packers, and we got all excited. Unfortunately, they proceeded to lose all 3 of those games, only to beat the Seahawks again in Week 15 to revive our hopes once more. What happens next? As the Seahawks are in the midst of losing to the 12-2 Chargers, the Niners lay an absolute egg against the 4-10 (!!!) Cardinals to kick us in the junk one more time for good measure.

Sound familiar? This season, the Niners have brought out their junk-kicking boots once again, with their wins coming when they're seemingly out of the playoff picture, and their losses coming when they're firmly within the picture frame. This Sunday's loss was, ala the Cardinals' game in 2006, the final for-good-measure display of their junk-kicking skills.

What does this have to do with the matchup review? Well, as you'll see, this was a game that the 49ers should have won easily. The loss defied more than just statistics; it defied logic altogether. Some matchup results ended up in perfect accordance with what they needed to accomplish, and yet they still lost. In other matchups, they turned stone-cold, lead-pipe advantages into performances befitting the Keystone Kops. All in all, if you want to understand the anatomy of a kick in the junk, this Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks helps explain why 49er teams of recent vintage have continually given us their best Sisyphus impression.

Ladies and gentlemen, grab your barf bags as I present this week's statistical matchup review alternately titled, How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Before the game, I displayed a chart showing that, without fail, the Seahawks' wins and losses through 11 games had a 1-to-1 dependency on their DEF DVOA for the game: above average = Seahawks win; below average = Seahawks loss. Well, wouldn't you know it, but the 49ers decided to play the role of bedside nurse once again, giving their opponent exactly what ails them. In the case of the SEA game, it turns out that the Niners lost despite SEA having a below-average Game DEF DVOA of 24.5%; their 3rd-worst Game DEF DVOA of the season!

So basically, the Seahawks DEF sucked just about as bad as they were supposed to suck (if not worse), and yet the 49ers couldn't do what every other team that's encountered said death-spiraling Seahawk DEF has done: win the damn game. What makes matters even worse - and more odds-defying - is that the Niners' had an above-average Game OFF DVOA of 9.5%; their 3rd-best Game OFF DVOA of the season! Oh, and by the way, just for kicks, they also had an above-average Game DEF DVOA of -8.1%. Tell most any NFL team that they're going to have one of their best days on OFF, and their 4-7 opponent, whose losses occur when they play bad DEF, is going to have one of their worst days on DEF, and that team is going to tell you that an ass-whooping is what they're about to dish out. Behold the (2006 and) 2009 49ers: not most any NFL team.

After the jump, I'll make you reach for the Pepto...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Here's another case of the odds-defying game result. Just to remind you, the first part of the equation in this matchup had to do with the 49ers's DEF having a massive advantage over the Seahawks' OFF in passing situations on 2nd down. The second part was that, given this advantage, the Niners' DEF needed to constantly put SEA's OFF in such situations by holding them to 3 yards or less on 1st down.

Interesting stat #1: SEA had 3 successful plays out of 11 passing plays on 2nd & long (27.3%); as compared to a 50% success rate on 2nd & long runs. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #2: When the Niners' DEF stopped SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, TD, Half, Punt, Punt, Punt. 49ers exploit advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #3: On the lone TD drive in the previous list, the 49ers' DEF gave up 2 of the Seahawks' 3 successful 2nd-down passing plays in the entire game. 49ers blow advantage? Check. Interesting stat #4: When the Niners' DEF didn't stop SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with TD, Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Punt, FG. 49ers blow advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #5: Before Arnaz Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 4 for 4 (i.e., a perfect 100% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #6: After Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 13 for 25 (i.e., a lackluster 52% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. Battle blows DEF's advantage? Check.

So, my point here is that the matchup played out exactly as expected. When Matt Hasselbeck and company passed the ball on 2nd & long, it worked in the 49ers' favor. Otherwise, it didn't. When the Niners' DEF started a drive by putting SEA into 2nd & long, it ultimately worked in the 49ers' favor on the drive. Otherwise, it didn't. When the coaching staff wasn't calling ridiculous special teams plays, and pinning their hopes on the tandem of "Human Roster Exemption" and "Worst WR-Signing of 2009," it worked in the Niner DEF's favor. Otherwise, it didn't.

The fact of the matter is, however, that this matchup worked out in the 49ers' favor far more than it didn't, and yet, they still lost the game. Why? How about 3 matchup-defying epic fails: a 15-yard gain on 2nd & 8, a 25-yard gain on 2nd & 7, and a 32-yard gain on 1st & 10. The first 2 came on SEA's 2nd TD drive (if you want to call the 1st one "a drive"), and the third came on SEA's final game-winning drive. Interesting stat #7: 3 epic matchup fails = 49ers loss.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Do I really have to say much about this one? The Niners' DEF had a 167.9% (!!!) DVOA advantage if/when SEA threw red zone passes, and was coming off a game in which the dropped the hammer on the Jaguars' similarly disadvantaged OFF in this exact game situation. So much for that, I guess: Both of SEA's TDs came on red zone passes. Nice job, guys. Revised interesting stat # 7: 5 epic fails = 49ers loss.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

Remember how, in last week's matchup review, I lauded the 49ers' coaching staff for exploiting Frank Gore's advantage against JAX's DEF in the passing game? Remember how I mentioned that he was the target for 25% of Alex Smith's passes in the JAX game, and how Smith threw 6 of his first 9 passes to Gore? After looking at the SEA-game play-by-play, they're resigned to remain exactly that: memories.

Against the Seahawks, Gore was the target of a Smith pass only 7 times, or only 15.5% of Smith's 45-pass total. What's worse is that, after being the target of Smith's 3rd pass of the game, Gore did not have a ball thrown his way for 14 straight passes! A certain pearl of 1980s pop culture comes to mind here: Hello? McFly?

This one is definitely on the coaches. How do you go into a game against the 26th-ranked pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw Gore the ball like he's Roger Craig, but then go into the following game against the #27 pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw him the ball like he's Billy Bajema? It makes absolutely no sense to me. The worst part is that 4 of Gore's 5 catches ended up being successful plays for the Niners' OFF. Hello? McFly? Re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 1 coaching fail = 49ers loss.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Enough of the epic failing; let's go back to the "lose despite epic success" theme. I don't need to give you the play-by-play for you to know that the Niners's OFF shot, roasted, and ate the Seahawks DEF during the 1st quarter. If not for one of the worst non-calls I've ever seen, the Niners would have been up 14-0 only 8:35 into the game. And, to me, 14-0 is meaningfully different than 7-0. To an NFL team, being down by 7 in the 1st quarter means "only one score away." But, to a 4-7 NFL team like the Seahawks, only 2 weeks removed from receiving a 35-9 beatdown at the hands of the Vikings, being down by 14 midway through the 1st quarter means "I can't wait to clean out my locker and get the hell out of here."

I don't care what anyone says, but the fact that the 49ers' 1st-quarter dominance on offense didn't end up helping them win the game is something you can pin squarely on the backs of the inept officiating tandem that saw no evil on that play. Of course, were you at all surprised that (non-)call went the other way? Remember, the alternate title of this movie is How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion. Getting that call isn't in the script.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...One more epic coaching fail for you guys before I'm done. Before the game, I mentioned how SEA's DEF is 6th-worst in the NFL when it comes to efficiency on plays when the opposing OFF lines up in shotgun. As was the case in the Jags game, the Niners needed more shotgun. It turns out they used even more shotgun OFF against SEA (62.1% of all plays) than they did against JAX (55.7%). The coaches are fine so far.

Where the epic coaching fail begins is related to something I've been talking about for weeks: the benefit of shotgun to the running game. Against the Seahawks, the 49ers' OFF had a 44.4% play success rate from the shotgun formation, and a 36.4% play success rate when Smith lined up under center; so, yeah, we know already, shotgun is more efficient overall.

The interesting things about the SEA game are (a) the pass OFF was slightly more efficient under center (50.0%) than they were in shotgun (46.9% success rate), and (b) the run OFF was a pathetic 0 for 7 (success rate = 0.0%) on running plays in non-shotgun formations!!!

Why? Hmm. Might the former have something to do with the fact that 7 of Gore's 9 carries were on non-shotgun plays? Might somebody be telegraphing their passing plays? Might the entire world know that, when the 49ers line up in shotgun, they're going to pass the ball? Might it be a little less difficult to defend the pass when a team knows it's coming? Hmm. And might the latter have something to do with the fact that, against SEA, the Niners were 6 times as likely to run the ball when under center than when in shotgun? Or perhaps it has something to do with the fact that, except for one drive in which they mysteriously exhumed their Gore-up-the-middle-three-times-then-punt OFF, all of Gore's runs came on 1st down? Hmm.

Hopefully, you're getting my point for the 100th time. One of the main reasons I cited for shotgun being useful for the 49ers and their inept OL is that it allows an OFF to disguise their play-calls. If you run out of shotgun efficiently, it will be nearly impossible for the DEF to know when you're going to run because the norm for NFL DEF's is to defend pass first against shotgun. DEFs defending pass first = easier blocking for the OL on running plays.

So, one of the main benefits of shotgun is disguise. But here we have a game in which the coaching staff (read Jimmy Raye) somehow was able to force his telegraphing nature into an offense specifically designed to avoid telegraphing. Want to know what one SEA defensive coach said to the others? It goes like this: "Hey guys, when Smith is in shotgun, they're passing. But if he's under center on 1st down, they're running." Amazing. When a nerdy, armchair DC like me can figure this out, it means that the Niners' OC (and the rest of the offensive coaches) committed an epic fail.

Re-re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 2 coaching fails = 49ers loss.

BOTTOM LINE

Aside from specific epic fails, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Seahawks:

They did something no other team had done against SEA this season: Lose despite their OFF utterly dominating SEA's DEF.
Battle's fumble gave SEA's OFF life after the Niners' DEF was utterly dominating them on 1st down.
A blown PI call nullified the Niner OFF's utter domination of SEA's DEF in the 1st quarter.
Total matchup meltdown in red zone pass DEF, the initial catalyst of which was Battle's fumble putting the pass DEF in a position to fail.
Poor gameplanning by the offensive coaches rendered Gore relatively nonexistent in the passing game.
Poor "self-scouting" by the offensive coaches rendered the 49ers' run and pass tendencies transparent, which thereby nullified their massive shotgun advantage.

The first sentence of my SF/SEA matchup preview was, "Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort." It turns out I was exactly right from a matchup perspective: losing these matchups was a total team effort. Offensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., Gore fumble), defensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., red zone pass DEF fails), and a special teams player (who should be taking the next "special" bus out of town) even found a way to contribute to non-ST matchup fails - he's that talented! Throw on top of that the contribution of offensive coaches, and you have the anatomy of a "what could have been" loss.

Thanks for another kick in the junk, guys.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON why the 49ers repeatedly lose games they should win?

Golden Nuggets: Guess I gotta face it sometime..

Ninjames — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

Good morning, folks! Sorry I've been sketchy on the links but I've been keeping busy, to be sure! Thanks to Fooch again for covering for me. Still, I had to sleep early for a good cause. If you're wondering what it is, make sure to come on over to this site tomorrow morning at 7 AM PT, I should have my post up by then. All I can say is it was a very positive experience for me. That being said it has been nice to be deterred from say, the current 49ers team but I suppose I have to look at this season at some point. I'm done crying over it, to be honest. This team needs to finish strong, someone told me that over the phone yesterday, and it's true. Very true, I'm looking for as strong a finish as possible and improvement from Alex Smith so we know what we have going into the 2010 season. This isn't a bad team we've got here, we have too many good players to just waste that talent. Best I can do is look forward to Monday Night and hope I don't leave Candlestick disappointed. That would seriously suck. Here's your links.

And so retires my favorite 49er of the last ten years--Jeff Ulbrich. He has nothing left to prove for 49er fans, a great player and a great guy. (PressDemocrat.com)

So it seems Great America is suing the city of Santa Clara, claiming the stadium deal is illegal as per their agreement with the theme park. (ESPN.com)

The 49ers placed Kentwan Balmer on IR and signed a replacement, Baraka Atkins. As previously a huge fan of the MK series, man this guy is setting himself up to make me very disappointed. Still, I actually think he could be good. (PressDemocrat.com)

The 49ers are the only team that can stop the Cardinals from getting into the playoffs now. Not sure that it will happen... (NBCBayArea.com)

There was plenty of reasons the 49ers released Allen Rossum, I fully support the release. I don't, however, support using Arnaz Battle on them. That man is useless. I want him gone, forever. Am I bitter? Heck. Yes. (SFGate.com)

Alex Smith is seizing control down the home stretch. I certainly hope he's changed for sure. (SacBee.com)

Maiocco has his every-player review from the loss against Seattle. (PressDemocrat.com)

"Drops Drop 49ers From Playoff Race." How creative. (SFGate.com)

Well this is depressing. 49ers playoff drought is among the longest in the NFL. (MercuryNews.com)

A look ahead at the Monday Night game against the Cardinals. (49ers.com)

Coach Singletary is taking the blame for the fumbled punt return. (SFGate.com)

He also has a list of grievances for the NFL. (SFGate.com)

Andy Lee: Hitting His Stride. (49ers.com)

Arizona Cardinals Fly Around the NFC West

najmsh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:15:46 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner (13) is hurried by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009.

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After a very intense (but fulfilling) week 13, the Arizona Cardinals find themselves atop the NFC West, a three game lead with four left to play. Maybe it was the confidence of our friends over at Niners Nation or maybe it was a product of the damage done to Cardinals fans’ psyches over the years, but many expected the Cardinals and the Niners to fight for first place in the division during the upcoming Monday Night Game. Thankfully, that is not the case.

San Francisco 49ers: The Niners are coming off one of their worst losses of the year (from a morale standpoint). Coach Mike Singletary came into the season wanting to instill a team mentality and a sense of toughness, and he was initially very successful in doing so. The Niners started 3-1, and came within a Brett Favre Hail Mary of being undefeated after 4 weeks (with 3 division wins), but it went downhill from there. Starting with a drubbing by Atlanta, the Niners went through a 4 game losing streak and ultimately lost 6 of their next 8 games. They are now tied with Seattle for second place in the division, and barring a Cardinals collapse, are out of the playoffs. There is a little optimism now, as many of the Niners faithful are confident that Alex Smith is the quarterback of the future. However, Mike Singletary and the much maligned Jimmy Raye need to find a way to make Smith successful while also incorporating Frank Gore into the offense (Gore has averaged only 10 carries/game over the last three games). The Niners play at home against the Cardinals this week, a game where the Cards are favored by 3.

Seattle Seahawks: It was a very up and down week for the Seattle Seahawks. Long time GM Tim Ruskell resigned from his post, inviting in a plethora of Mike Holmgren rumors. Ruskell inherited a loaded team and added a few Seahawk mainstays, including Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill, but much of his reign was marked with draft busts and bad trades. The team itself is coming off a close win against the 49ers and is tied for second place in the division at 5-7. The Seahawks are unexpectedly rebuilding in a year where many thought they would challenge the Cardinals for the division. On the bright side, they have two first round draft picks and if Mike Holmgren decides to come back as general manager, they could rebound quickly. Seattle is travelling to Reliant Stadium this week to take on the most schizophrenic team in the league, the Houston Texans.

St. Louis Rams: Injuries, injuries, injuries. After Sunday’s game against the Bears, the Rams had to put safety Oshimogho Atogwe on injured reserve, joining starting cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Ron Bartell. The Rams placed the franchise tag on Atogwe during the offseason and are shelling out close to $6 million for his services this year. They now have a big decision to make about his future with the team. The Rams are essentially headed for another top five pick, with problems at every offensive position except running back. St. Louis is travelling to Tennessee this week to take on the Tennessee Chris Johnsons, who are coming off their first loss since Vince Young was named the starting quarterback.

Division Leaders:

New Orleans Saints* (12-0) – (@ATL, DAL, TB, @CAR)

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) – (CIN, @CAR, @CHI, NYG)

Arizona Cardinals (8-4) – (@SF, @DET, STL, GB)

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) – (SD, @NO, @WAS, PHI) (I’m pretty sure the schedule makers were laughing uncontrollably while making Dallas’ December schedule)

Wild Card:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) – (@NYG, SF, DEN, @DAL)

Green Bay Packers (8-4) – (@CHI, @PIT, SEA, @ARI)

In the Hunt:

New York Giants (7-5) – (PHI, @WAS, CAR, @MIN)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:32 -0000

vs.

While this game lost a lot of its luster with the Sunday's 49ers loss and Cardinals win, it still should provide an entertaining football experience. As folks were trying to develop a legit 49ers-Seahawks rivalry, the 49ers quietly developed a rivalry with the Arizona Cardinals. Even though there have been numerous sweeps of the series, the games usually are highly competitive, if not going down close to the wire. Even if the 49ers are all but eliminated from playoff contention, this game provides a chance for the team to take a step forward in execution and build towards 2010.

The 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals in what will be the 37th meeting between the two teams, with San Francisco holding a 20-16 advantage in the series. In the season opener earlier this year, the 49ers defeated the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium, 20-16.

San Francisco enters the upcoming game following a 20-17 defeat in Seattle. In that game, QB Alex Smith connected on 27 of 45 passes for a career-high 310 yards, which included a 33-yard touchdown pass to TE Vernon Davis for his 10th receiving touchdown on the year (tied for 1st in NFL and a new single-season record among 49ers TE’s all-time) and a 22-yard touchdown reception by WR Josh Morgan to mark his third score of the season. It marked the second week in a row that the 49ers defense had posted at least 5 sacks in a game, having had 6 sacks against the Jaguars before notching 5 sacks against the Seahawks.

The 49ers have won 7 of their past 9 home games and have a 38-24 overall record on Monday Night Football.

49ers-Cardinals Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers defensive coordinator Greg Manusky was a teammate of Cardinals assistant head coach/OL coach Russ Grimm with the Washington Redskins from 1988-91. Manusky played linebacker, while Grimm played offensive guard.
• 49ers TE coach Pete Hoener has had coaching stints with the Cardinals in both St. Louis (1985-86) and Arizona (2001-03).
• 49ers WR coach Jerry Sullivan spent 3 seasons as the Cardinals offensive coordinator from 2001-03.
• 49ers special teams coordinator Al Everest coached in the same capacity for the Cardinals from 1996-99.
• Cardinals LB coach Billy Davis was the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2005-06.

FORMER CARDINALS - 49ers K Joe Nedney spent three seasons with the Cardinals from 1997-99 ... 49ers G Tony Wragge was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cardinals in 2002. Wragge spent 2 seasons (2002-03) with Arizona.

PANTHER PRIDE - 49ers CB Shawntae Spencer and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald were teammates at the Univ. of Pittsburgh from 2000-03.

FORMER 49ERS - Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor spent the first 4 years of his career with the 49ers after being drafted in the 3rd round (89th overall) of the 1999 NFL Draft.

HAIL THE VICTORS - 49ers G David Baas played at Michigan alongside Cardinals DT Gabe Watson, DT Alan Branch and WR Steve Breaston.

CARDINALS NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS - Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington played 2 seasons at Cal.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 36
Series Record: 49ers lead series 20-16
49ers Home Record vs. Cardinals: 49ers Lead Series 11-8
First Meeting: 11/15/51, Cardinals win, 27-21, at San Francisco
Last Meeting: 9/13/09, 49ers win, 20-16, at Arizona
Current Streak: Won 1
Longest 49ers Win Streak: 5 (9/14/80-10/18/87 | 10/24/93-12/21/02)
Longest Cards Win Streak: 4 (10/6/74-12/2/79 | 10/2/05-12/24/06)
Most 49ers Points: 50 (12/7/03): 50-14, at San Francisco
Most Cardinals Points: 34 (Two Times): Last (10/6/74), 34-9 at SF
49ers Shutouts: None
Cardinals Shutouts: None

SAN FRANCISCO 20, ARIZONA 16
At Glendale, AZ, September 13, 2009

Head coach Mike Singletary delivered a very simple message to his team in advance of their season opening matchup against the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals … "Believe." His players did just that as they battled through a tremendously physical game highlighted by impressive defensive efforts from both squads. After being stymied on offense for more than 3 quarters, the 49ers embarked on a 15-play, 80-yd. drive that consumed 7:26 of clock time en route to a 3-yd., go-ahead TD pass from QB Shaun Hill to RB Frank Gore. On the drive, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye scrapped the run game that he had dialed up all afternoon and left the contest to Hill’s right arm. The QB responded going 9 of 13 for 72 yds. and the TD to Gore. On the series, Hill utilized his playmakers, including TE Vernon Davis who hauled in 4 passes for 35 yds.

The 49ers opened the scoring in the 1st quarter after All-Pro LB Patrick Willis intercepted a QB Kurt Warner pass to set his team up at the ARZ 36. Six plays later K Joe Nedney connected on a 37-yd. FG. Nedney later connected on a 50-yd. FG to give the Niners a 6-0 lead entering the 2nd stanza. The Cardinals finally got some offense going in the 2nd quarter as K Neil Rackers drilled a 44-yd. FG on their first possession. As the 49ers run game continued to struggle, Hill aired the ball out to All-Pro WR Isaac Bruce on a 50-yd. bomb, setting the offense up at the 6-yd. line. With a tired Arizona defense, the 49ers called on Gore the very next play. He hit pay dirt plunging through a massive hole into the endzone.

With the momentum in their favor, CB Nate Clements capitalized on another Warner mistake, as he hauled in his first interception of the year. Clements’ effort, and those of his defensive backfield mates, limited one of the game’s best WR tandems in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, to a combined 8 recepts. for 90 yds. and 1 TD. The 49ers were unable to capitalize on Clements’ pick, as Hill was sacked and forced to fumble on the next series. The Cardinals jumped on the opportunity, posting another Rackers’ FG this time from 29 yds. San Francisco left the field at the half with a 13-6 lead.

The Cardinals carried momentum into the 3rd quarter, and on their 2nd possession, Warner led his team on 69-yd scoring drive that resulted in a 5-yd. TD pass to Fitzgerald, knotting the score at 13. After a 49ers 3-n-out, Arizona again moved the ball to post points, a 43-yd. FG by Rackers just seconds into the 4th quarter, for the Cardinals final points of the game. The Niners would then embark on their game-winning drive and back it up with a defensive performance that paralyzed the Cardinals.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		CARDINALS (rank)
5-7 (t-2nd NFCW)	Record	8-4 (1st NFCW)
20.4 (19th)	Points per game	24.8 (9th)
285.4 (28th)	Total Offense	360.9 (10th)
91.3 (28th)	Rushing Offense	94.1 (26th)
194.2 (22nd)	Passing Offense	266.8 (5th)
28:55 (20th)	Possession Avg	30:41 (12th)
19.4 (t-10th)	Points allowed/gm	19.5 (12th)
346.4 (20th)	Total Defense	362.6 (24th)
95.8 (5th)	Rushing Defense	104.8 (12th)
250.6 (27th)	Passing Defense	257.8 (30th)
30 (t-7th)	Sacks	35 (3rd)
48.3 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	47.4 (3rd)
+1 (t-11th)	Turnover Differential	-3 (t-21st)

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

4 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Golden Nuggets: The morning after the morning after... still sucks

Ninjames — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 11:00:59 -0000

Good morning there folks. Sorry I couldn't get the Nuggets up yesterday but thanks to Fooch for handling them for me. It clearly was not my night. Oh well, I figured when I asked him that it may be for the better so I'm not a bitter [site decorum] when I write these but well... It really didn't work, because I still have no clue how to feel about the 49ers right now. Obviously there is um.. still a chance that the 49ers can make the playoffs but I'm not going to let myself even think it's a possibility at the moment. No, that's not a lack of fandom, I want this team to finish strong and show the rest of the NFL we're better than we've played, these 4 point losses are infuriating and this team has to recover to be a force next season. I look at this roster and I see a team that's in far better shape than the Rams and the Seahawks and on par to make the Cardinals look just terrible once old man Warner retires. Bring on some last minute wins, baby. Here's some links.

Coach Singletary is still upset by the officiating in the game Sunday. (Yahoo.com)

Most notably the unfavorable calls against the 49ers as well as the blatant non-calls. (NFL.com)

He's not playing the blame game though, which at least makes me respect him a little more. Not happy with him at the moment. Lets just say if I saw him in person I'd likely end up getting my [site decorum] kicked. (PressDemocrat.com)

Could naming Alex Smith the starter be saving Singletary and McCloughan's jobs? Huh. (MercuryNews.com)

Mike Singletary hits rewind on the loss to Seattle. (MercuryNews.com)

Monday's locker room talk from well, Monday. (49ers.com)

Here's yesterday's edition of Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)

Wow I haven't linked here in a long time, must be for lack of credibility or integrity, but when it's just stats and notes, hey it's useful. (ProFootballTalk.com)

Singletary discusses the offense and the questionable officiating. All these notes seem to be Singletary talking... he does a lot of that these days. (PressDemocrat.com)

If Alex Smith could have any throw back, it'd be his last throw which was just.. a bad pass. (SacBee.com)

I suppose it isn't too early to look ahead at some of the 49ers opponents for 2010. Hm... (PressDemocrat.com)

[insert the Kawakami link here that I wont link to because I can't describe it without saying some pretty offensive things about him]

Yeah, this was my "OK, WHAT?" moment of the game. The punt return handoff? Even I knew that kind of thing works with Rossum-Clements.. NOT Battle-Jones. C'mon man. (SacBee.com)

I agree with this one.. Alex Smith certainly did his part to win the game. (SacBee.com)