SB Nation - Brandon Williams

The Art (and Science) of Drafting: IId. The McNolan Era (2005-2008)

Florida Danny — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 00:00:14 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry about the delay in getting this one posted. My computer crashed yesterday because a genius (aka me) let the battery run out, so I had to wait until it fully recharged (aka today) to continue writing up the piece.

Yesterday, in Part 2c of my review of 49er draft history, I broke down the Donahue regime's picks from 2002-2004 by round, position, and conference. Just to refresh everyone's memory, here was my description of Donahue's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks, especially when your team sucks.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
I <3 the Pac-10!
BCS or die!

In comparison with the Walsh II and Policy regimes, Donahue didn't make the Policy regime mistake of trading away picks when the team was good (2002), he used Walsh II's strategy of drafting for need on Day 1 when rebuilding, he brought back the Policy regime's affinity for Pac-10 players, and he surpassed both Walsh II and the Policy regime in percentage of picks that came from BCS conferences

In this article, I'll be ending the regime breakdowns with a look at the McNolan era (2005-2008).

After the jump, I'll put the McNolan drafts in context; break the results down by position, draft day, and conference; sum up the regimes; and provide the idiot's guide to McNolan draft strategy...

Here again is the link to my Excel spreadsheet of 49er draft picks in the Salary Cap Era. I realized that some of you probably don't have Excel 2007, so I converted it to be compatible with older versions (and fixed the link in previous posts as well):

49er Draft Picks 1994-2008

IN CONTEXT

In Part 2c, I told you how Donahue didn't hit the home run he needed to with his rebuilding project in the 2004 draft. One additional piece of evidence for this is the fact that, by the very next draft, Donahue's replacements had to rebuild the roster once more through the draft. Therefore, Donahue's 2004 fire sale and draft has to rank among the shortest rebuilding phases of a franchise in the history of sports (and not in a good way). Now, I'm sure you don't need some long-winded description of what the team has done record-wise since 2004, so I'll just get on with the specific needs in each of McNolan's drafts:

2005 Draft - Key Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson (free agency), OL Kyle Kosier (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (career-threatening injury), OL Scott Gragg (free agency), DL John Engelberger (trade), DB Ronnie Heard (free agency), K Todd Peterson (free agency). Weak 2004 Stats: 30^th in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA; 19^th in ST DVOA.¹ Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for QB Jeff Garcia, RB Garrison Hearst, WR Terrell Owens, and DB Zack Bronson; major injuries to QB Tim Rattay, LB Andre Carter, DB Ahmed Plummer. Needs: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, K, LB depth.

2006 Draft - Key Losses: QB Tim Rattay (trade), RB Kevan Barlow (trade), FB Fred Beasley (free agency), WR Brandon Lloyd (trade), WR Johnnie Morton (released), LB Julian Peterson (free agency), LB Andre Carter (free agency), and DB Ahmed Plummer (career-threatening injury). Weak 2005 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 31^st in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Garcia, Hearst, Owens, and Bronson; major injury to TE Eric Johnson. Needs: FB, WR, LB, DB, QB depth, RB depth, TE depth.

2007 Draft - Key Losses: WR Antonio Bryant (released), TE Eric Johnson (free agency), OL Jeremy Newberry (free agency), and DB Tony Parrish (released). Weak 2006 Stats: 22^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA; 18^th in ST DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bronson; OL Larry Allen and DL Bryant Young now in their mid-30s. Needs: WR, DB, ST, TE depth, OL depth, DL depth.

2008 Draft - Key Losses: WR Darrell Jackson (free agency), OL Larry Allen (retirement), OL Justin Smiley (free agency), DL Bryant Young (retirement), DL Marques Douglas (free agency), and LB Derek Smith (free agency). Weak 2007 Stats: 32^nd in OFF DVOA; 28^th in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for Owens and Bryant; major injuries to QB Alex Smith, OL Jonas Jennings, and LB Manny Lawson. Needs: WR, OL, DL, LB, QB depth.

In preparation for its drafts, McNolan has had to deal with about 7 key losses per offseason, which is fewer than Walsh II (8), but more than Donahue (4) and the Policy regime (4). Interestingly, the course of McNolan's tenure has seen a mixture of his 3 predecessors' draft contexts. The 2005 and 2006 offseasons were Walshian, with about 8 key self-induced, salary-cap-caused losses per season that generally involved kicking dead weight to the curb or trading it for draft picks. The 2007 offseason was Donahue-esque, with only 4 key losses and a team feeling good about itself after a promising season. Finally, 2008 was Policy-like in that there were two retirements to deal with. Overall, I'd say the most similar previous context to McNolan's was the Walsh II era.

I know this is totally off-topic, but, Cedrick Wilson may have made the greatest career decision in the history of the NFL by signing with PIT after the 2004 season. If he stays in SF, he's stuck on a 6-win team for the foreseeable future (at least until he roughed up his ex-girlfriend) catching passes from Rattay, Smith, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, and Chris Weinke. Instead, he goes to PIT and wins a ring his first season with the team catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger. Seriously, whatever it was that made him leave the Niners, he needs to bottle and sell it. Can you guys think of any other player in recent years who's lucked out like that?

Anyway, back to the regularly scheduled program. For the sake of comparison, here's how McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup in 2005 and 2006:

Morton (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Wilson
Snyder (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Kosier
OL Eric Heitmann (2002 Donahue draft pick) for Newberry
OL Kwame Harris (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Gragg
Douglas (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Engelberger (after moving Young to 3-4 DE)
DB Mike Adams (2003 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Heard
K Joe Nedney (2005 McNolan free agent signing) for Todd Peterson
Smith (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Rattay
RB Frank Gore (2005 McNolan draft pick) for Barlow
FB Moran Norris (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Beasley
Bryant (2006 McNolan free agent signing) for Lloyd
WR Arnaz Battle (2003 Donahue draft pick) for Morton
Lawson (2006 McNolan draft pick) for Julian Peterson
LB Brandon Moore (2002 Donahue undrafted free agent signing) for Carter (after moving him to 4-3 ROLB)
DB Shawntae Spencer (2004 Donahue draft pick) for Plummer (after moving him to LCB)

Adding it all up, McNolan rebuilt the starting lineup with 5 traditional free agents, 4 draft picks, and 6 players originally acquired by Donahue. Comparing this to the previous regimes, McNolan used free agency more than Walsh II and Donahue, but less than Policy; and they had a "holdover rate" of 33.3%, which was smack dab in between Walsh II (16.7%) and Donahue (50.0%).

So there's the context. Hopefully you sense a pattern emerging here: the contexts of McNolan drafts have been a cocktail of issues and solutions having the ingredients of each predecessor; 2 ½ parts Walsh II, 1 part Donahue, and ½ part Policy.

PICKS, PICKS, AND MORE PICKS

From 2005-2008, the 49ers made 35 selections in the NFL draft, which nearly equalled the Walsh II and Donahue rate of 9 picks per season. In 2005 and 2006, the main rebuilding years, McNolan stockpiled picks via all those trades I mentioned earlier; just like Walsh II and Donahue. The past 2 drafts, however, McNolan has tended to trade away picks (you're welcome, NE) rather than stockpile them; just like the Policy regime. Once again, the trend here is for McNolan to be a mixture of all 3 predecessor's strengths and weaknesses.

In terms of McNolan's overall Pro Bowl rate, a Donahue-esque and Walshian 5.7% of its picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers (Gore and LB Patrick Willis). However, its starter rate of 34.3% - which includes OL Chilo Rachal's midseason and DB Dashon Goldson's offseason ascensions - is the worst of the 4 regimes (Policy regime = 41.4%; Walsh II = 48.1%; Donahue = 48.1%). When you remember the differences in context between regimes, you realize that McNolan has been way worse at picking starters than the context-similar Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse than the context-different Policy regime, whose superior teams made it harder for draft picks to crack the starting lineup (i.e., the Policy regime's starter rate is artificially low due to context).

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has continued the Walsh II and Donahue standard of 9 draft picks per season.
McNolan has stockpiled picks when the team sucked, and traded away picks when (they thought) the team was good.
McNolan has been as bad at picking Pro Bowlers as the "unlikely to have Pro Bowlers because the team sucked" Walsh II and Donahue regimes, and even worse at picking starters than the "unlikely to have draft selections start because the team was good" Policy regime.
Overall, McNolan seems to be channeling the good and bad of its 3 predecessors.

DAY ‘N' NIGHT

McNolan has taken exactly 40% of its picks on Day 1 of the draft, and 60% on Day 2. That's almost identical to Walsh II's 41/59 split, which, as I said in Part 2c, was smack dab between the Policy (52/48) and Donahue (33/67) regimes.

Looking at the relative success of its picks by draft day, we find that 64.3% of McNolan's Day 1 picks have become 49er starters, which is, again, right in the middle of the 4 regimes; not as good as Walsh II's (81.8%, which I incorrectly reported as 64.3% in Part 2b), but basically on par with the Policy regime's (60.0%) and Donahue's (55.6%). Remember, though that Walsh II and Donahue are the better comparisons in terms of team context. On Day 2, an abysmal 14.3% of McNolan picks have become 49er starters, easily the worst of the 4 regimes (again, even worse than the starter-unlikely Policy regime). So while McNolan has had pretty standard success on Day 1 in terms of starters, it's been horrible at picking Day 2 starters.

The best example of this dichotomy between Day 1 and Day 2 results is McNolan's initial rebuilding draft in 2005. Here it is:

Rd	Player	Pos	Starter?	Pro Bowl?
1	Alex Smith	QB	Yes	No
2	David Baas	OL	Yes	No
3	Frank Gore	RB	Yes	Yes
3	Adam Snyder	OL	Yes	No
5	Ronald Fields	DL	No	No
5	Rasheed Marshall	WR	No	No
6	Derrick Johnson	DB	No	No
7	Daven Holly	DB	No	No
7	Marcus Maxwell	WR	No	No
7	Patrick Estes	TE	No	No
7	Billy Bajema	TE	Yes	No

Day 1? 4 picks, 4 starters, 1 Pro Bowler. Day 2? 7 picks, 1 starter, 0 Pro Bowlers. Enough said.

With regard to Pro Bowlers, however, the preferred drink is once again "Regime Cocktail." On Day 1, 14.3% of McNolan's picks have become 49er Pro Bowlers, which is slightly worse than the Pro-Bowl-likely Policy regime (20.0%), considerably better than Donahue (0.0%), and slightly better than Walsh II (9.1%). OK, correction: McNolan drinks Regime Cocktail only on Day 1. That's because, it has yet to pick a Day 2 Pro Bowler. Of course, it's not like the other two Pro-Bowl-unlikely regimes (Walsh II = 6.3%; Donahue = 5.3%) were much better at it.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

McNolan has had a Walshian 40/60 split of picks between Day 1 and Day 2.
McNolan has been worse than Walsh II, but better than Donahue, at picking Day 1 starters.
McNolan has been far less successful than the other 3 regimes at picking Day 2 starters.
McNolan has been more successful than Walsh II and Donahue at picking Day 1 Pro Bowlers, but slightly worse than these two regimes at picking Day 2 Pro Bowlers.

ASSUME THE POSITION

Here's how McNolan has used its 35 picks by position, unit, and draft day:

Pos	Day 1	Day 2	Total
QB	1	0	1
RB	1	1	2
FB	0	0	0
WR	2	5	7
TE	1	2	3
OL	4	1	5
DL	2	5	7
LB	2	1	3
DB	1	6	7
K	0	0	0
P	0	0	0
OFF Total	9	9	18
DEF Total	5	12	17
ST Total	0	0	0
Total	14	21	35

Overall, McNolan has basically split their picks up evenly between units, which is more similar to what the Policy regime and Donahue did than Walsh II's need-induced DEF preference. Also, like Walsh, McNolan hasn't taken any ST players in the draft. Of course, that may have something to do with having Nedney and ROBO-PUNTER on the roster. What's most interesting here, however, is that, although OFF has received equal attention on Days 1 and 2, 70.6% of McNolan's DEF picks have come on Day 2.

The even split of OFF picks between draft days is a little misleading because McNolan was actually Walshian in 2005 and 2006 when it had to replace most of the OFF. Going back to that 2005 draft that I showed earlier, you'll notice that all 4 Day 1 picks were on OFF. This continued in 2006 when they selected TE Vernon Davis in the 1^st round after Johnson suffered a major injury the previous season. Essentially, McNolan followed the Walsh II example of spending Day 1 of rebuilding drafts addressing the most glaring positional needs. This is really eye-opening when you consider that Scot McCloughan claims to be a devout believer in "best player available." Is he full of sh*t or is the focus on need in Day 1 of the 2005 and 2006 drafts just a coincidence? I'll leave you to decide.

DEF, however, is a different animal altogether. From the table, it's clear that the draft day disparity on DEF has been due to an inordinate amount of Day 2 picks being spent on DLs and DBs. The 5 Day 2 DLs were, in order of selection, Ronald Fields, Parys Haralson, Melvin Oliver, Jay Moore, and Joe Cohen; the 6 Day 2 DBs were Derrick Johnson, Daven Holly, Marcus Hudson, Vickiel Vaughn, Goldson, and Tarell Brown. Looking at these lists, you could say that McNolan has gotten worse over time picking Day 2 DLs, whereas it's gotten better over time picking Day 2 DBs. Either way, aside from Haralson and Goldson, that's a pretty mediocre-at-best bunch. So, if you want to know why the DEF has sucked for so long (before Singletary pulled their heads out of their asses), look no further than McNolan mostly waiting until Day 2 to pick DEF players. Couple this with McNolan's aforementioned horrible starter rate on Day 2, and you get one wet, stinking heap of also-ran-ity.

With 71.4% of picks taken on Day 2, WR is another position at which McNolan has focused little Day 1 attention. The two Day 1 WRs were Brandon Williams and Jason Hill, both 3^rd-rounders.

Hopefully, you're starting to see a trend here. McNolan gets credit for using Walsh II's "pick for need on Day 1" and "bites at the apple" strategies. However, it's made the mistake of waiting until Day 2 to take most of their bites at DL, DB, and WR. Perhaps, then, one reason why the Niners haven't been able to get over the mediocre 7-9 hump since 2005 is because their WR, DL, and DB corps are populated with Day 2 picks.

To drive it home, here's one last point about McNolan's (lack of) success wtith DEF picks. On OFF, McNolan's starter rate (44.4%) has been similar to that of the Policy regime (43.8%), Walsh II (50.0%), and Donahue (46.2%). However, the DEF starter rates for the previous 3 regimes were 47.1% for Walsh II, 41.7% for Donahue, and 33.3% for the Policy regime. McNolan's? 23.5%!

All is not lost, however. Unlike Donahue, McNolan seems to have actually learned something about positional picks as its tenure has progressed. Namely, 2 of their 3 picks in 2008 were DEF players. Whether or not DL Kentwan Balmer and DB Reggie Smith pan out in the long run, at least McNolan seems to have noticed that their previous Day 1 picks on DEF have become integral parts of the starting unit. Don't believe me? Here they are: Lawson, Willis, and DL Ray McDonald. So, their results - 2 starters, 1 Pro Bowler, and an emerging pass-rush specialist - were not shabby at all. This suggests that (a) when McNolan commits Day 1 resources to DEF, it's been pretty successful; and (b) the regime seems to have figured this out. So, at the very least, kudos to them for that.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Walsh II, McNolan has focused its Day 1 picks on the most glaring positional needs (when it had to).
McNolan has employed Walsh II's "bites at the apple" strategy at WR, DL, and DB. However, they've primarily waited until Day 2 to take their bites.
Given their propensity for waiting until Day 2 for DEF picks, it's not surprising that McNolan has been horrible at drafting DEF starters.
Based on 2008, McNolan seems to have learned from their "wait until Day 2 for DEF" mistake.

CONFERENCE ROOM

So far, I've basically told a story about how the McNolan regime's drafts have been a little bit Walsh II, a little bit Donahue, and a little bit Policy; how they've used the good strategies as well as the bad. Basically, not too hot, not too cold; I'll call it "Goldilocks" if you will. The conference breakdown is where that tale ends. There's one regime's lead in particular that McNolan has been happy to follow, and I'm sure you'll easily be able to figure it out. Here's how McNolan's 35 picks shake out by conference: 7 ACC picks, 7 SEC picks, 6 Big 12 picks, 6 Pac-10 picks, 4 Big 10 picks, 1 Big East pick, 1 Conference USA pick, 1 MAC pick, 1 MAII pick, and 1 MWC pick.

BCS anyone? McNolan has taken a Donahue-esque 88.6% of its picks from BCS conferences. I already detailed in Part 2c what I think of this strategy, so you know by now that I don't like it. Now, Scot McCloughan has argued that he takes BCS players because they're (a) less affected by big crowds, (b) more prepared for the NFL, and (c) better team leaders. While all of these may be true in a general sense, the draft isn't about generalities. It's about identifying and acquiring specific talented players. I'm sorry, but when you limit your available talent pool to 6 or 7 college football conferences, you're going to miss the "diamonds in the rough" that teams need to sustain success. Also, McCloughan has made it seem like picking players from BCS conferences is only a Day 1 strategy. The stats say the opposite though: A higher percentage of McNolan's Day 2 picks have come from BCS conferences (90.5%) than have its Day 2 picks (88.6%). Oh, and did I mention that McNolan's first pick ever was a QB from a non-BCS conference (Smith), and that they traded up in 2007 to take an OL from a non-BCS conference (Joe Staley)? That's 2 of McNolan's 4 non-BCS picks being taken with 1^st-round picks. Again, is he BSing us here or is this some kind of smokescreen? It's pretty interesting how a general BCS guy like McCloughan can fall in love so much with specific non-BCS players.

And now, I present a second way in which McNolan's conference preferences are similar to Donahue's: They suck just as bad at picking BCS players despite being so BCS-reliant. Wait, let me correct that. They suck even worse. Here's the evidence:

McNolan
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	10	2	12
No	21	2	23
Total	31	4	35

Donahue
Starter?	BCS	Non-BCS	Total
Yes	12	1	13
No	13	1	14
Total	25	2	27

You'll recall from Part 2c that Donahue's BCS starter rate (48.0%) was worse than Walsh II's (62.5%) even though Donahue was much more BCS-heavy with his picks. Well, even Donahue's sorry BCS starter rate makes him look like a draft maven when compared to McNolan's. That's because, as the table shows, only 32.3% of McNolan's BCS picks have become regular 49er starters! As I said in Part 2c, if you're going to be limiting your talent pool so drastically, you better be good at evaluating the talent you don't ignore. Clearly, McNolan has not been good in this regard, and has been even worse than the guy for which I invented the argument.

Now, I argued in Part 2c that Donahue's preference for BCS players and lack of success in actually picking good ones was borne out of his dispositional laziness and inattention to draft detail. With respect to McNolan, however, I'm sure this hasn't been the case. To its credit, the McNolan regime has been almost pathologically engaged in draft preparation. After all, they coached the Senior Bowl 3 straight seasons, Scot McLoughan was Director of College Scouting for the Seahawks, and Scot's brother, David, now serves in the same capacity for the 49ers. So I'm kind of perplexed as to why, given their affinity for evaluating college talent, McNolan has shied away from non-BCS players. One might argue that it's because of the Alex Smith experience. However, as has been noted, McLoughan remains a big Smith supporter. So what gives here? Please help.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

Like Donahue, almost every player McNolan has drafted has been from a BCS conference.
Despite its BCS-lust, the McNolan regime has had an even worse BCS starter rate than Donahue.

GENERAL ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION

As I've alluded to throughout this article, the McNolan drafts can be described by one word: Goldilocks. In other words, their porridge hasn't been too hot and it hasn't been too cold; just lukewarm. Here's the evidence:

McNolan's draft contexts have been a mixture of its 3 predecessors' contexts.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's "draft vs. free agency" bias.
McNolan's stockpiled picks in rebuilding drafts ala Walsh II, but also traded away picks in "we feel good about ourselves right now" drafts ala the Policy regime.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of a 49er regime's Day1/Day 2 split.
McNolan's been right in the middle in terms of Day 1 starter and Pro Bowl rate.
McNolan has evenly split their picks between OFF and DEF overall.
McNolan's used Walsh's "bites at the apple" strategy, but only on Day 2.
McNolan's been on par with previous regimes in terms of picking OFF starters.
Though it's made Donahue-esque draft strategy errors, McNolan's either learned from those mistakes or has a more valid reason for why they've made them.

All in all, it sure seems like the McNolan regime has been a mixture of the good and bad of the 3 previous 49er regimes. They rebuilt like Walsh II in 2005 and 2006, but they sat on their laurels like Donahue and the Policy regime in 2007. They draft for need on Day 1 like Walsh II, but, like Donahue, only when they have to. They take a lot of bites at the apple like Walsh, but they wait until Day 2 to do it. You get the picture.

To me, understanding the Goldilocks nature of McNolan drafts helps explain why the 49ers have been stuck in "no better than 7-9" mode for the past 3 seasons. If you draft a propensity of mediocre players, or if you have a bunch of mediocre drafts, you're going to find yourself having a mediocre team. Here, another word comes to mind that has been used - with great comic effect - to describe McNolan: vanilla.

In evaluating the 4 Niner regimes since 1994, something has become very clear to me; something that I didn't fully realize until I got to McNolan. Bill Walsh was the only 49er GM in the past 15 years who went out and tried to be great in the draft. He's the only one who tried to bat 1.000 every time he stepped to the plate. The Policy regime was content to sustain success through free agency, Donahue was content to ride the coattails of Walsh II's drafts, and McNolan has been content to only be great on Day 1. Is it any wonder then that the Walsh II regime was the only one that had an upward win trajectory? Is it a coincidence that Walsh was the only GM to leave the 49ers better off than when he arrived? I mean, the 49ers regressed under the Policy regime and Donahue, and they've stagnated in 7-9 territory under McNolan. After reading my regime breakdowns, do you have any doubt that one important reason for this is because Walsh II's draft strategy differed so drastically from that of McNolan, Donahue, and the Policy regime? In re McNolan, do you think that the "hybrid" defense, not giving Hill the QB job outright, and not firing Nolan after 2007 can be described by any other word except "vanilla?"

Whether it's McSingle nee McNolan or someone else, until the person/people in charge of running the 49ers' drafts stop placing artificial constraints on themselves, and start trying to be great with every pick- by whatever means necessary - I fear the Niners are going to wallow in mediocrity.

Here's a perfect example of what I mean. The Niners need a pass rusher right now more than anything. Go out and draft the best damned pass rusher. If the consensus best pass rusher isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the pass rusher you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the Calfornia Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK pass rusher and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

Another example. Right now, you have an arguable draft bust, a good but ragged-armed journeyman, and a player KC didn't even want as your QBs. Go out and draft the best damned QB. Do whatever it takes. If the consensus best QB isn't the one you've identified as the best, then trade down for value and get the guy you want. If the QB you think is going to be great played at (site decorum) Directional University in the California Penal League, take him anyway. Just don't sit back and wait to draft some OK QB and hope he turns out to be good with a little coaching! Address the (site decorum) need already! In other words, try to be great!

You know what team drafts like this? The New England Patriots. But that's Part 3, so you'll have to wait until tomorrow to hear the details. For now, here's the idiot's guide to the McNolan regime's draft strategy:

Stockpile picks when your team sucks, but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.
BCS or die!
We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).

So, based on this strategy, as well as some specific draft history trends that you can find in my Excel spreadsheet, here's what (and what not) to expect from the 49ers in the 2009 draft:

Don't expect them to take more than 1 player from a non-BCS conference.
Don't expect them to take a pass rusher, QB, or WR at #10.
Don't expect them to take a RB on Day 1.
Expect them to take a WR or two on Day 2.
Expect them to take an OL on Day 1.
Expect more DEF picks (esp. DLs and DBs) on Day 2 than Day 1.
Don't expect them to take a FB, K, or P.

Remember, this is what I expect them to do or not do based on their history. If they end up going against tendency, it's not because the tendencies were wrongly identified. It's because they did something that was unexpected given their history. And there's no harm in that. It's actually worked once or twice (See Willis, Patrick).

That's it for now. Tomorrow, I'll compare the overall 49er draft strategy since 1994, which I identified in Part 1, to that of the Patriots. TO BE CONTINUED...

¹ DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How much blame would you assign McNolan's drafts for the 49ers continuously being unable to take that next step in recent seasons?

All of the blame

37 votes

Most of the blame

83 votes

Some of the blame

103 votes

None of the blame

9 votes

232 votes | Poll has closed

Recent Draft History: San Francisco 49ers

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 20:00:09 -0000

2008 Draft:

1 (29) Kentwan Balmer, DT Backup

Not exactly a hot start for the rookie, collecting almost as many kick returns as he had tackles, all on special teams. With the anticipated switch to a 3-4 the Niners are just hoping he has the ability to move over to DE. It will probably be a suitable move that gets him on the field, as he has the length and ability to take on blockers and force double teams.

2 (39) Chilo Rachal, OG STARTER

With the advent of new Head Coach Mike Singletary, Rachal went from benchwarmer to starter. He appears to have the starting guard spot locked down, and shows the athleticism to be moved out on the edge if needed, should the Niners find themselves in a good position to target Guards in the draft.

3 (75) Reggie Smith, CB Backup

The latest addition of the highly targeted CB spot for the niners. Smith saw action on special teams, but where it gets interesting for him is his experience as a SS. While he doesn't quite have the range to drop all the way back as a FS, he certainly has the versatility to give the Niners optional looks and packages in their secondary. No doubt he will be around for awhile, as an intriguing set of possibilities.

4 (107) Cody Wallace, C Backup

Wallace will get some time to develop on the bench, as C Eric Heitmann recieved a contract extension to go along with arguably his best year as the Niner's center. Wallace is solid depth, and should be ready to step in if there wre to be interior line injuries.

6 (171) Josh Morgan, WR Backup

Morgan should get an opportunity to compete for first team reps, after a rookie season that started out with a lot of promise during the pre-season, but hit the brakes after a staph infection and then a groin injury sidelined him. He has good size/strength, and could be a playmaker if he can build up some solid connections with whomever ends up QBing the niners.

7 (214) Larry Grant, OLB Backup/Rams

Was poached early from San Francisco's practice squad, and now serves as an inexperiencd strongside backup for the Rams.

2007 Draft:

1 (11) Patrick Willis, LB STARTER

A solid all around LBer who led the league in tackles as a rookie, and who made strides in an already impressive game in his second year by becoming even more effective pass defender.

1 (28) Joe Staley, OT STARTER

He came at the cost of a future #1 starter, but the move so far looks solid, as Staley was exemplary in starting duties as a RT rookie. After a sophmore move to LT he struggled, giving up a number of sacks as he adjusted to the cream of the crop when it comes to defensive pass rushers. But after settling in in the latter half of the season, all signs point toward this young T being with the organization for a while.

3 (76) Jason Hill, WR Backup

This could be the key season for Hill, who could either line up a starting spot for himself, or drift back into the ranks of obscurity and eventual dismissal. After underachieving through an injury pagued rookie season, he was off to a less than stellar start in 08. But with injuries to the starting WR and the coaching transition midway through the season, Hill managed to step up and start putting some production with his measurables. Expect a great WR battle in training camp as Hill looks to solidify his spot on the roster.

3 (97) Ray McDonald, DE STARTER

A solid player developing nicely, he suffers from his lack of instincts, as seen by the number of penalties he draws. He is a starter for now, but the 49ers will actively look to get some more competition at the position.

4 (104) Jay Moore, OLB Backup

A solid player who has been plagued by injuries for the Niners. Last year the injury occurred in the pre-season, losing him an entire season's worht of practice time and development. This is likely his last chance to make an impact,a nd if he can't stay healthy and produce, he may be cut at the first opportunity.

4 (126) Dashon Goldson, S Backup

After limited use in his rookie campaign, he caught the coaches' eyes leading up to and during the 2008 season, but nothing ever came of it. In danger of becoming a "Workout wonder" Goldson needs to focus on his game and work to get himself moved into the starting lineup, and there was never a time as good as now, with limited options on the roster, in free agency or the draft. Word out of the 49ers camp is that they are willing to give him the first crack at the job...

4 (135) Joe Cohen, NT Backup/Miami

After an ACL injury sent him to IR in the preseason, he was subsequently waived and picked up by the Dolphins, where he will be in competition for the starter/backup position vacated by Vonnie Holliday.

5 (147) Tarell Brown, CB Backup

After a lackluster rookie campaign followed by off-field trouble, Brown stepped in after injuries sidelined the #2 corner, and didn't play terribly in his duties covering the slot. He will likely be given an opportunity to take the starting job in training camp, but the more likely scenario is settling in as the #3 corner.

6 (186) Thomas Clayton, RB Backup

After spending much of his career ont he practic squad, he was activated to hedge against Frank Gore's injuries, but no starting or even playing time ever really materialized for him. Solid depth, but an unknown quantity that may just need an opportunity to step up.

2006 Draft

1 (6) Vernon Davis, TE STARTER

Though this pickup will long be contested, there is legitimate worries as to his long term viability as a pass catcher. With clay hands and the inability to catch away from his body, Davis may be best suited to an H-bak role, where he is given the ball in space and asked to produce, as he has the physical tools to dominate after the catch. One area that is worht every dime, however, is his runblocking.

1 (22) Manny Lawson, LB STARTER

After a solid rookie campaign that included a rookie fo the week honor, he lost most of his 2007 development to an ACL tear in practice, and went to IR immediately. His return in 2008 saw a somewhat less explosive and quick player, no doubt due to the injury. As a key component of the run stopping game and TE coverage, Lawson has his spot locked up, but he needs a full, consistent year in order to look towards his future again.

3 (84) Brandon Williams, WR/KR Backup/Steelers

In duty primarily as a KR, Williams didn't impress. After average production in 13 starts he was waived and claimed by St. Louis, who would also get some spot return duty out of him, but they too would choose to waive him. Now with Pittsburgh, he may be looking at his alst chance to hang on with an NFL team.

4 (100) Michael Robinson, RB Backup

After a nice rookie campaign that saw Robinson move up to the #2 position behind Frank Gore he inexplicably fell out of favor, and his touches, and thus his production, fell steadily. After taking over the FB role due to injury, he sits in an uncomfortable position: his style of FB play does not mesh well with the heavy bruiser style that Singletary seems to envision for his new offense. Though Robinson signed an extension, he will likely be passed up on the depth chart over the next few years by more suitable FBs, until it makes sense to just let Robinson go.

5 (140) Parys Haralson, DE STARTER

Possibly a draft-day steal, Haralson has developed well and is becoming a premiere producer for the Niners defensive line. A lackluster rookie campaign, floowed by some flashes and signs of promise in his sophmore campaign came full circle with 8 sacks in 2008. All teams wish their defensive talent could develop this consistently.

6 (175) Delanie Walker, TE Backup

Though he has serious upside, this has been true for the last three years. At a certain point he will be asked to produce. But with no red flags in his game, it is likely that the 49ers will look to keep him around as long as possible, or at least until a viable alternative falls in their laps.

6 (192) Marcus Hudson, CB Backup

To many games as an inactive, and a handful of games missed due to injury certainly don't speak well for this player going into his fourth year. When his contract is up, there will be little upside to keeping him on the roster.

6 (197) Melvin Oliver, DE Out of NFL

After a very promising and productive rookie season, where he started in 14 games, a preseason ACL in jury sent him to PUP and then IR for his 2007 campaign. He was waived by the 49ers.

7 (254) Vickiel Vaughn, S Out of NFL

After breaking his finger in preseason, he spent the year on IR, only to be cut for the following season. After a short stint on the Broncos practice squad he was again cut and is now an unsigned free agent.

Special Teams: Long look back, brief look forward

Fooch — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 16:00:13 -0000

If this is the first post you're seeing today, just a quick heads-up that there was a lot of little things happening yesterday afternoon/evening that I threw up in various posts/promoted FanPosts. So, if you want to discuss the potential franchising of Terrell Suggs, the 49ers just saying no to Vick or the new uniforms for 2009, head to the appropriate link.

We now reach the final position in our review of 2008 and brief look to 2009. If you missed any of the previous editions, here are links: QB, RB, FB, WR, TE, OL, DL, OLB, ILB, CB, S.

Amidst all the turmoil in the organization, this last area might be the one area of the game where the 49ers have succeeded pretty consistently the last few of years: special teams. They're not the flashiest group at times, but they have gotten the job done rather consistently. It'd be nice if they were getting that job done in bigger situations, but I won't quibble for the purposes of this review.

Andy Lee: He may look young (although not nearly as young as former punter Tommy Thompson, but it's safe to say the man is a beast with a cannon for a leg. His numbers decreased this year, but that was due in part to the relative improvement of the 49ers offense, as compared to last year. His numbers went down across the board, but he still finished 3rd in the NFL gross average and 8th in net average. His best highlight was his NFL high 82 yarder against the Patriots. Lee signed a 6-year deal prior to 2007 after the 49ers matched the Steelers offer sheet and I could not be happier. The remaining 4 years on his contract (and any additional years) will only cement his legacy as the best punter in 49ers history (with due respect of course for Tommy Davis).

Joe Nedney: In four seasons with the 49ers, Nedney, a product of San Jose State, has quietly amassed an 87.83% completion percentage on field goals. That's significant because the NFL career leader in percentage is Nick Folk at 86.79%. Nedney has never been a flashy, well-known kicker. However, for 49ers fans that have dealt with the likes of Jeff Chandler and Jose Cortez, this is a welcome respite. Although Nedney is certainly not perfect, he is usually pretty money, and any misses are usually made up later in the game. He's signed through 2009 and given the care management has taken in maintaing cap space, I'd hope they could spare a few bucks to resign Nedney before he hits free agency.

Allen Rossum: Over the last few years, 49ers fans have dealt with the likes of Maurice Hicks, Arnaz Battle, Brandon Williams and Michael "Beerman" Lewis returning kicks and punts. Not the worst options in the world, but definitely nowhere near the best. Delanie Walker has been mixed in as well and had some success. However, one of the biggest impact signings last offseason turned out to be Allen Rossum. He had injury issues that kept him out for a month, but when healthy, he was a potential home-run hitter every time he returned a kick.

He had one return touchdown, but I recall quite a few instances where he set up the 49ers offense quite nicely with a big return. Now, the offense didn't always convert those opportunities, but that's not his fault. He finished the season 6th in kickoff return average, and although he didn't qualify with only 15 punt returns, he finished 7th among everybody with a punt return. The 49ers have lacked that kind of punch for some time and it was much appreciated, and one of the bigger surprises (at least for me) of the season. Of course, that directly leads to our Looking Forward question in just a moment.

Brian Jennings: The best thing we can say about Jennings is that he was rarely mention. Jennings is signed through 2009 and I'd imagine the only way he's not back is if he gets a bigger offer from somebody else. Given how specialized he has become, I don't know if that should be expected.

Looking Forward
Let's get right to the point. Kicker and punter are clearly fine going forward. The big question is in the return game. Allen Rossum is a free agent and the 49ers have to decide if they want Rossum back, or if they want to work on developing a returner of the future. They signed Michael Spurlock, a man who became the first Buccaneer to return a kickoff for a touchdown, to reserve/futures contract. If they want Rossum back, or they want to grab somebody in the draft, that sort of contract will not get in their way.

The two biggest names as potential return men right now would probably be Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin. We discussed Maclin in the scouting report and speed is certainly his forte. Harvin, a WR out of Florida, appears to be a more snake-bitten version of Maclin. He's got crazy speed but had injury issues this past season that might give teams a strong enough reason to wait on him. I'm not a huge fan of taking Maclin in the first round. However, if the 49ers addressed pass rush or offensive line in the first round, I would certainly be a little more intrigued if a guy like Harvin fell a bit into the second round.

So what is the best way for the 49ers to address the return game? They've got some potential candidates on the current roster, but none has proven themselves on the level of Allen Rossum. Of course, Rossum isn't getting any younger, so maybe it's time to develop the younger talent. Given that free agency opens before the draft, we should know what's up with Rossum pretty quickly.

Poll

What should the 49ers do at kick/punt returner

Re-sign Allen Rossum

201 votes

More Delanie Walker

7 votes

Draft Jeremy Maclin

48 votes

Draft Percy Harvin

39 votes

Someone else currently on the roster

11 votes

Another free agent out there (please specify)

4 votes

Another draftee (please specify)

10 votes

320 votes | Poll has closed

Predicting the Rams practice squad

VanRam — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:52:18 -0000

I'm trying to come up with a Governor's Cup joke here. Every time I get a sentence down though, it erase it, too hackneyed. Let's face it, the Governor's Cup, with most of the starters on the bench, isn't the most exciting football you'll see all season. Might be better than some of those Rams games last season though. For the 20+ guys looking to survive the final roster cut, it is a big game, a last audition.

The Post-Dispatch has a pretty comprehensive look at the final roster as it stands. To kick off the morning, I thought we'd take a stab at predicting the 8-man practice squad. Before I jump in, some housekeeping. I swapped QnA with SBN's Chiefs blog Arrowhead Pride, and will have those up later. Don't forget to check out 3k's preview.

Now, the practice squad.

Roy Schuening, G - Reading about this guy after the draft, I fully expected him to cement a backup role for himself in camp. By all accounts he came to the league as force on the o-line. He could still, and after last season's experience with the o-line, you can bet they'll keep another OL on the practice squad. Probably means Dustin Fry's days as a Rams are numbered.

Marques Hagans, WR - This is a position that will get plenty of attention in tonight's game. Hagans and the others battling for an outside chance at the 53-man roster will get plenty of passes thrown their way as well as return opportunities. Hagans has been the best receiver of these fringe guys, but Derek Stanley has an advantage in the return game. Brandon Williams might be a better kick returner, so he has a decent shot at the practice squad too. Reche Caldwell might make it because of his experience, but he could probably find work complementing the depth on another team. This is the toughest spot by far to round out the bottom of the depth chart. The Rams kept two WRs on the practice squad to start the season last year, Stanley and Dominque Thompson, and it certainly looks like they'll do that again.

Lance Ball, RB - Ball will get a lot of carries tonight, passes too. The Maryland undrafted rookie has really impressed, and had the Steven Jackson holdout dragged into the regular season, there's no question he'd be on the team. He will make the practice squad.

Bruce Gradkowski, QB - Last season, when the Rams went with just 2 QBs on their active roster, they had to keep Berlin on the practice squad. Good thing they did too because they needed him. It's possible they'll keep Gradkowski this year, with Berlin favored to retain his old job at #3. However, it's not as likely.

Eric Bassey, S - This is a tough one too because the Rams have some nagging injuries to key starters. If Jerome Carter can play tonight and doesn't completely suck, they'll almost have to keep the 4th year vet to round out depth at safety by making him the fourth. I'm assuming they'll keep 4 safeties and 5 corners. Vinnett has special teams value. I wonder if they'll keep Macklin, a vet, and put Vinnett on the practice squad?

David Vobora, LB - This depends on whether or not the Rams keep 6 or 7 LBs. If they keep 7, he's on the 53-man, contributing on ST. That scenario likely puts Marc Magro on the practice squad.

C. J. Ah You, DE - I suspect they'll keep a DL on the practice squad, and Ah You is the best of the fringe guys at that position. That leaves them a little short at DT, potentially, with just Glover, Carriker and Ryan as the only full time DTs. Of course, DTs Willie Williams and Henry Smith have as many tackles through the preseason as Adam Carriker, so they'll be working hard to make an impression tonight.

That's my educated guesses at the practice squad. We'll have definitive answers this weekend. Stay tuned.