SB Nation - Keary Colbert

Tuesday Notes: Rams Will Be Down Three Starters on Sunday

Sean Yuille — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:53:36 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, right, talks with Rams rookie third-round draft pick corner back Bradley Fletcher during NFL football minicamp at the Rams' training facility Friday, May 1, 2009, in St. Louis. Fletcher is out for the season after hurting his right knee. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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We will soon find out if Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and other injured Lions returned to practice today. Stafford and Johnson missed Friday's practice, as did Larry Foote, DeAndre Levy, and others. Daunte Culpepper sat out on Thursday but returned on Friday, so I'm assuming he will be good to go this week against St. Louis.
Stafford said he will try to practice today in order to test his knee. It certainly doesn't sound like anyone is really sure of where Stafford is at in the recovery process, so I guess we will just have to wait and see how his knee responds if he does get back on the practice field. If he doesn't practice, then that would be very telling about his health.
The Rams are also banged up, and they will be without three of their regular starters on Sunday. Two of them -- cornerback Bradley Fletcher and long snapper Chris Massey -- are out for the season. Guard Richie Incognito isn't out for the season, but he will miss Sunday's game because of a ligament injury in his right foot.
Vinny Ciurciu has been all over the practice field.
Brandon Pettigrew realizes that he needs to start playing better.
Keary Colbert is headed to the UFL. Based on his play in the preseason, that is probably a better place for him than the NFL.

Darryl Giftwraps Kelly Jennings Interception, but Jennings Refuses

John Morgan — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:27:05 -0000

Kelly Jennings went Keary Colbert on a pass thrown right for him, dropping a game changing interception. Darryl Tapp forced the pressure that forced the bad pass, but despite another awesome defensive showing from Seattle, the Seahawks are again not scoring, but only winning field position.

Josh Wilson and Sean Locklear Suffer High Ankle Sprains

John Morgan — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 23:20:18 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

D.J. Hackett has had his career undermined by multiple high ankle sprains. It's a common, benign sounding injury that is debilitating and slow to heal. Josh Wilson and Sean Locklear are out until further notice.

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Danny O'neil is reporting that Josh Wilson and Sean Locklear have both suffered high ankle sprains.

Why is a high ankle sprain worse than a typical ankle sprain? One can figure it out pretty intuitively, actually. A regular ankle sprain involves an ankle overextending medially. The ankle is designed for some medial movement. That means it can twist and turn from a straight position towards the middle of one's body. That motions is called pronation. It does not move well laterally. That motion is called supination. A lateral, common ankle sprain involves movement of the foot medially. The sprain occurs to the ligaments being stretched rather than the ligaments being compacted. When someone suffers a high ankle sprain, it is because the ankle is over supinated. It has moved too far laterally and strained the ligaments on the medial side.

When a foot is over-supinated it strains this group of ligaments.

High ankle sprains can vary in severity. Most are serious though and will keep a player out for 4-6 weeks. High ankle sprains recur, too. Meaning Locklear and Wilson are now more at-risk for another high ankle sprain than they were before the injury. This is one reason injuries are not simply luck.

The loss of Wilson combined with Marcus Trufant's injury and the promotion of Jordan Babineaux leaves Seattle functionally without depth at the cornerback. Dimeback Travis Fisher has yet to play a snap and has missed significant practice time. Babineaux might be moved back to corner to bolster Seattle's depth. The team's depth at safety is comparably strong.

Walter Jones is projected to return this week. He has accomplished superhuman feats before, and if his recovery is complete and Jones is once again an above-average left tackle, that feat would rank among his greatest. Backing up Jones, Seattle has Brandon Frye on its roster and Kyle Williams on its practice squad. Frye played some tackle at Virgina Tech, but has played guard most of his pro career. Yesterday was his first regular season snaps at the position. Williams is a big body that doesn't kill himself with his technique and decision making. He also isn't very good and limits what Seattle can do.

Seattle has relied on quick recoveries in the past and gotten themselves into deep trouble. I wonder if today's announcement foreshadows a Keary Colbert-type move. Seattle could trade picks for an unwanted player. Or it could use those picks to draft younger, healthier talent that can contribute to the Seahawks future.

Pour Some Sugar On Me - Preseason Wrap-up: Can We Build a Team That Can Beat the Raiders? Yes We Can!

Sugar — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 10:00:22 -0000

I understand how important this last preseason game was for roughly 20-30 players per team. I do. For some it was the difference between making the 53-man roster or getting cut. For others who were relatively certain of their impending unemployment, it was a chance to get on tape for potential future employers. For coaches, it was one last look at a few players they may try to retain on the practice squad. But for just about everybody else (in the world) these games were simply painful to watch.

As a Redskins' fan, I of course watched the game against the Jaguars intently and hung on most every play. But as I watched the games around the league, I found myself losing interest quickly as penalty flags rained down on my living room as if Pacman Jones himself were throwing them.

To write a recap of each game would be worse than having to read Peter King rate every latte he has ever drank. So instead, this week I thought I would put my preseason watch-a-ton to the test. Every team has made their final cuts. I will attempt to build a 53-man roster from all the players released by the Saturday deadline. This may include some players who ended up on the practice squad, but you'll have to excuse that. After all, even though I did watch pretty much every preseason game played in the last month, my knowledge of certain teams' backups probably doesn't go much further than guys who should rightfully land on the practice squad. This already feels like a poor man's version of Madden fantasy draft. I get to decide who I am going to keep and at what position they will play. My ultimate goal: a 53-man roster capable of beating the Oakland Raiders final 53-man roster. Our team name: Sugartime Ballers. At the end, you'll get to vote on whether you think the Ballers can take down the Raiders. The first picks after the jump...

QB (3): Jeff Garcia, Joey Harrington, Chase Daniel

This team is going to have a questionable offensive line, so I am going to need a veteran quarterback capable of escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. I watched as much of the Raiders' preseason as I could stomach and to me it seemed like Jeff Garcia was the quarterback that gave them the best chance to win now. My guess is that they sensed that too and decided that going with a guy staring down 40 years old would be the nail in the coffin for the JaMarcus Russell era, at least from a confidence perspective. Joey Harrington (cut by the Saints) is experienced in the art of art of hand signaling, which is what I want in my backup QB. Plus he is a great pianist so he can play getaway music on the piano as Jeff Garcia is running fro his life behind whatever offensive line I can put together. Chase Daniel gave it a good run in D.C., but failed to be named as the 3rd quarterback when the team decided to go with nobody instead (ouch).

RB (5): Dominic Rhodes, Anthony Alridge, Ian Johnson, Fui Vakapuna, Isaac Redman

It struck me as a little odd when the Bills jettisoned Rhodes. With Lynch out for the beginning frames of the season and Fred Jackson a little dinged this preseason, I figured a veteran like Rhodes would have value for that team. Alridge just barely missed being the last running back kept by the Redskins and adds speed out of my backfield. Ian Johnson is a young buck that got bounced by the Vikings. I have a soft spot in my heart for this guy after watching him have such a great career at Boise State, not to mention the now famous Statue of Liberty play against Oklahoma a couple seasons ago. Vakapuna is a guy I picked because I need a blocking fullback and I have been watching HBO's Hard Knocks this season featuring the Bengals. He is a big, athletic dude, and we are going to need a Samoan presence in the backfield on this team. Redman had a great preseason in Pittsburgh but the numbers game beat him. We are lucky to have him and Vakapuna muscling up in our backfield.

TE (4): Leonard Pope, Alex Smith, Bear Pascoe, Garrett Mills

The Cards cut Pope and the Pats cut Smith. Both are capable receivers that understand the position well. Bear Pascoe was on the 49ers squad and I remember hearing his name for the first time late in the game against the Raiders I think. He was described by his college coach at Fresno State as the "most devastating blocker" they had ever seen. He started out there as a quarterback. He blocked 6 kicks on special teams, and keeps his edge by participating in rodeos. He's an old-school kind of player and on my team he will play an old-school role: Iron Man. At 6'5", 250+ lbs, he will never leave the field. Our wildcat offense will be called the "Wild Bear" formation and we will direct snap it to him. He will rush the passer on defense and he will line up all over the field on offense. His importance on this roster almost necessitated adding a 4th tight end to help carry the load at the position, and Mills, fresh off the Vikings roster, will fit in nicely. The Raiders will not have a chance.

OL (9): Damien McIntosh, Tony Pashos, Andrew Crummey, Kynan Forney, Jeremy Bridges, Scott Burley,Justin Geisenger, Mike Butterworth, Mark Wilson

McIntosh (Chiefs), Pashos (Jaguars), Crummey (Bengals), Forney (Chargers), and Bridges (Redskins) are my starting five. Burley (Redskins), Geisinger (Panthers), and Butterworth (Falcons) are my backups. Burely went to University of Maryland and has been hanging around the league the last two years. Geisinger is a journeyman lineman who spent a season with the Redskins but has also been a member of the Bills and Titans. The Raiders gave Mark Wilson his walking papers, but he has had steady employment as a backup since 2004. Mike Butterworth made this team because I simply ran out of guys that I really knew much about...and I love maple syrup on pancakes.

All of my starters would likely be welcome on most squads in the league after a few weeks when teams are all of a sudden hit by injuries and become starved for guys who have played before. Forney was a huge shock getting cut by San Diego. He might be one of the two or three best players on the Ballers.

WR (6): Keary Colbert, Robert Ferguson, David Tyree, David Patten, Trent Shelton, Steve Sanders

Ferguson (Falcons), Colbert (Lions), and Patten (Browns) have all been unfortunate members of previous unfortunate fantasy teams of mine. So they owe me. Hard to argue against Tyree (Giants). He can start on special teams and catch balls with his helmet. With Bear Pascoe behind center, he might have to catch a few wild pitches. Shelton (Redskins) should make their practice squad and Steve Sanders (Cardinals) was great on Beverly Hills, 90210.

DL (8): Shaun Smith, Alex Buzbee, Ryan Boschetti, Darryl Richard, Rob Jackson, Tommie Hill, Matthias Askew, Terrance Taylor

The Patriots drafted Richard last April, and that is pretty much good enough for me. I recall Tommie Hill made a huge play late in the first Monday Night game against the Panthers, scoring a touchdown with no time left on the clock. Not being good enough for the Giants defensive line does not necessarily make you bad. Rob Jackson and Alex Buzbee both got cut from the Redskins so I have seen plenty of them and are comfortable with them as backups. Boschetti got dumped by the Raiders--can't remember anyone listing their personnel decisions as better than...well, anyone's. Shaun Smith was a shock to get sent home by the Lions. He is definitely good enough to anchor the Ballers' defensive line. And Terrance Taylor was a 4th round pick for the Colts. I am little surprised to see him gone from there, but we will not ask too many questions and scoop him up.

LB (8): Tim Crowder, Zach Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Khary Campbell, Bruce Davis, Jeremy Leman, Robert Thomas, Cody Glenn

Crowder should have cracked the Broncos' Final 53. Our squad will benefit from the veteran presence of Zach Thomas, who might not really have ever been realistically in the Chiefs' plans. Rocky Boiman has been around, most recently ending his second stint with the Titans. He has a ring from the Colts' Super Bowl victory and his experience will be put to good use for the Ballers. Khary Campbell is a special teams standout that did not make the last cuts in Houston. Bruce Davis was a huge underachiever for the Steelers. Here's hoping he can turn it around for the Ballers. Leman (Panthers) was a guy who I thought played well enough in the preseason to stick. I guess that is why my phone isn't ringing off the hook to become anybody's GM. Thomas and Glenn were both waived by the Skins. Thomas has plenty of experience in the league and Glenn (while still an odd draft choice by Vinny Cerrato--read: "wasted draft choice") is a raw player from the Nebraska Cornhuskers' program.

DB (8): Deltha O'Neal, Brian Russell, Brian Williams, Bernard Pollard, Corey Lynch , Deangelo Smith, Corey Ivy, Lendy Holmes

O'Neal (Texans), Williams (Jaguars), Russell (Seahawks), and Pollard (Chiefs) are my starting defensive backs (first two are CB's, second two will man the safety positions. Smith (Cowgirls), Lynch (Bengals), Ivy (Browns), and Holmes (Redskins) round out our scrappy secondary.

P: A.J. Trapasso - Any guy who takes aim for a $40 million video board in a preseason game, ESPECIALLY one bought by Jerry Jones, gets a spot on my team.

K: Brandon Coutu (Seahawks) - The 'Hawks kept this guy on their roster all season last year behind Olindo Mare in the hopes they could trade him. He has a hell of a leg and will get a shot from another team very soon.

Give Me the Numbers, Stat!

27-17, Ballers over the Raiders. Bear Pascoe has 78 yards rushing, 2 rushing touchdowns, 1 blocked field goal and 3 sacks. Jeff Garcia runs in for the other TD and throws the ball straight into the owner's box where Al Davis is sitting. Davis sues the NFL.

Next week at this time, we will be through the first weekend of meaningful football. Imagine...four quarters without any fourth-stringers (God willing). The season of excessive penalty-calling is over. Let the games begin. We'll see you back here on Tuesday--with nary a mention of any battles for the backup long snapper position.

Poll

Can this team I have constructed beat the Raiders today, on a neutral field, with a run-heavy offensive philosophy behind the Iron Man Bear Pascoe?

Yes, handily

164 votes

Maybe 51 times out of 100

142 votes

Maybe once in a 100 tries

51 votes

Not a chance

42 votes

399 votes | Poll has closed

Possible Waiver Claims or Free Agents That Could Help the Chiefs

Matt Conner — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 01:47:46 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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Just wanting to offer some quick hits on some players that raised my eyebrows during a cursory glance around the league transactions based on perceived places of need on the Chiefs:

WR Keary Colbert - This is mostly because he has a "KC" tattoo already on his arm. But even after being cut by the Lions (of all teams, I know), there's some promise here. Colbert's struggled to live up to the high expectations he had upon entering the league and the solid season he enjoyed in 2004 subbing for Steve Smith's injury in Carolina. Injuries have taken their toll, but he's only 27 and could be a sleeper. Okay, it's really just the tattoo.

DT Shaun Smith - He's got a mouth on him as well with particular disdain for Cleveland. But he's flashed strong ability to be a player when he wants on the defensive line and is already familiar with the 3-4. Hard to believe Detroit cut him, but there's been a bit of drama in training camp so I assume that's part of it.

CB Justin Miller - As a team desperately in need of someone to step up in the return game, Justin Miller returned two for touchdowns last year with the Raiders. A first-day pick for the Jets in 2005, Miller has yet to stick in the defensive backfield, but he might be worth picking up for the sake of his KR ability.

QB Jeff Garcia - I'm sure I'm in the minority on this one, but as far as I'm concerned, Garcia is still a quality gamer who can effectively manage an offense and could serve as some greater insurance than what we currently have. I'd take Garcia over anything we currently have after Matt Cassel.

OT/G Tony Pashos - Former starter with the Jags and Ravens has flexibility along the line and immediately becomes a starter candidate on the right side. From Scouts Inc.: "He started all 16 games at right tackle for the Jaguars in 2008 and does a good job of anchoring that side of the offensive line. He is a massive tackle with long arms, excellent strength and adequate athleticism. He is a powerful drive blocker that often simply engulfs opponents and uses his long arms to lock up opponents and drive them off the line." Um, yeah, enough said.

Many more players/candidates after the jump:

OT/G Ryan O'Callaghan - The Patriots enjoyed O'Callaghan's ability to provide depth along the offensive line the last three seasons, playing in 26 games and starting 7 of them. If Ryan's starting, your line has issues, but that's already a known quantity in Kansas City, so this should be in the bag unless St. Louis or Detroit are interested.

WR Courtney Taylor - The Seahawks receiver got the boot by Coach Mora, but the young Auburn grad can play the possession game well and can catch the ball in traffic. I always waited for this guy to break out so maybe a change of scheme or scenery would do wonders.

S Kevin Kaesviharn - Kevin's a career back-up so don't expect him to step in, but obviously we're missing something with Bernard Pollard leaving. It's just beyond me to imagine we're okay with the injury history of Mike Brown and Dajuan Morgan and Kaesviharn is great in coverage.

LB Ryan Fowler - The former starting MLB for the Titans was cut to make way for youngsters and at 27, he's not going to win anyone over with further development. But the former Duke player is very smart on the field and could help on a young team learning the ropes with Clancy Pendergast's complex scheming.

OG Kynan Forney - The longtime starter for the Falcons was cut by the Chargers after promising youngster Louis Vasquez won the starting RG job in camp. But the Chiefs are in such position that Forney could come in and potentially start after a couple games. Another strong veteran presence on the line.

WR David Patten - This is simply a tie to Scott Pioli, but it seems an obvious name to at least tie to a list like this one. Then again, let's be real that he hasn't stuck in New Orleans or Cleveland since his New England glory days.

TE Alex Smith - This is one signing I *really* hope we make. Smith's ability to reliably catch the football and his sure hands make him a solid target. He's not the strongest tight end and doesn't have the complete game Chiefs fans are obviously used to from the TE position. But I'm not convinced Brad Cottam, Sean Ryan and Jake O'Connell are the answer either and I think Smith could step in and get 40 or so possessions in the middle.

OT/G Anthony Davis - Recently cut by the Saints, Davis is getting a little long in the tooth, but he's a solid veteran with starting experience on the line and someone who could add much needed depth on the left side especially.

RB Kory Sheets - I know we're rather loaded in the backfield, but this Purdue graduate can flat out play. He had a solid preseason with the 49ers, who are simply stacked at that position, so Sheets was let go. I assume they want to keep him on the practice squad, but Chiefs fans would love this guy given the chance

Projected Panthers 2009 Depth Chart: Receivers

Revshawn — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:00:20 -0000

The Carolina Panthers boast one of the best receivers in the league, and also one of the shortest in Steve Smith. You look at the rest of the top receivers in the league, and they all hover around a height of 6-2 or 6-3. Meanwhile Steve Smith is only 5 foot 9, and he's playing among the best of them like it's no big deal. Until he retires, he's going to be one of the top receiving threats that the Panthers have, while the rest of the guys are just fighting to keep up with him. That's the way you describe our receiving core, and this year will be no different.

Steve Smith - Projected 1st receiver - 5,9 185 pounds (9th year, Utah)

Steve Smith was drafted in 2001, the year the Panthers had possibly the best draft in their history. Taken in the 3rd round, all of the draft gurus had already pinned him as a return specialist, for there was no way a person at his height was going to be able to be a productive receiver in the NFL right? 40 times, college production, and all of the statistics all thrown out the window they took one look at his height and his draft stock flew down the drain.

Steve Smith set out in his career to prove them wrong. 4 Pro Bowls, 5 years with 1000+ yards, and all in a career that isn't hardly half over yet. Steve Smith is a deep ball threat on every down with his speed, yet he has the possession skills to make shutdown corners look silly in the short game. If the game is on the line and the Panthers are behind then you no problem. Steve Smith has shown time and time again that he has the ability to catch balls in double coverage and save the game for you in the end.

Steve Smith 2008 Highlights (via AMadden13)

With a six year contract extension signed in 2007, Steve Smith looks to be a Panther for life. It goes without saying that he will be the starter in Week 1. No one will question that. He is a natural leader whose presence cannot underestimated in the locker room or on the field.

100% Possibility to start

Muhsin Muhammad - Projected 2nd receiver - 6,2 215 pounds ((14th year, Michigan State))

Moose is a household name in Carolina. He is our current record holder in almost every career record in the receiving category we have as a team, and besides a 3 year stint in Chicago he has played in Carolina his entire career. He hasn't been exceptionally awesome. He's only had 3 seasons with 1,000+ yards in the regular season, one Pro-Bowl appearance. However, he has been consistent, and the blocking skillset he brings to the table is something a lot of other people don't catch onto when they look at Moose. Breaking off a big run is much easier when there is a big physical receiver to take out a safety or a corner out of the play. He's a good part of the reason that Deangelo Williams had his breakout year, and one of the reasons he will stay a starter on the Carolina offense in spite of being 36 years of age.

Does Moose stand to break 1,000 yards this season? Probably not. In spite of his rapport with Jake Delhomme, our running game is just too great to figure Moose getting much over 60 receptions again in his career. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will get the ball early and often with our coaching staff in remembrance of that fateful 5 INT day by Jake Delhomme. Their success sets up the deep ball game perfectly with Steve Smith once the safeties get sucked up in the running game, and Moose is left with possession catch duties when the Panthers are stuck in crucial 3rd down situations as well as the odd pass here and there.

I would imagine a 55+ reception year for the aging veteran in which may be his final year with the Panthers, depending on whether or not the following receiver is ready to take over.

80% possibility to start, 95% possibility to make roster

Dwayne Jarrett - Projected 3rd receiver - 6,4 219 pounds ((3rd year, USC))

While his USC teammate Steve Smith has went on to win a Super Bowl in his rookie year with the Giants, Dwayne Jarrett has yet to nail down his starting roster spot even though he was hyped as a tough, physical that could have went in the 1st round if he had a better pro-day showing and a faster 40' time. So far, he's been a disappointment. Dwayne Jarrett didn't get the start over Keary Colbert in his rookie year, and since then he has been reduced to slot receiver duties until further notice. In 2009, it's going to be even harder for him to hit the field thanks to the success of Double Trouble keeping the 3 WR set off the field.

However, there is some reason to hope.

Dwayne Jarrett is entering his 3rd year, which is the traditional time for receivers to break out and have a big year. Dwayne Jarrett is not without talent and playmaking ability, as he flashed last year with a couple of 3rd down receptions in the game against the Chargers, leading to a dramatic conclusion we all remember and treasure deep in our hearts. Finally, he will not have D.J. Hackett stealing snaps from him on 3rd down so he will be able to see the field more and finally start flashing those physical catches in traffic that we drafted him to see.

This is a make or break year for Jarrett. If he has a strong showing, the Panthers will take him under their wings as the 2nd receiver for now and for the future. If not, except the Panthers to work harder to sign that contract extension for Julius Peppers so that they can free up some cap space to search for Dwayne's replacement in FA. Dwayne Jarrett will make the team this year, but what happens after that is up for his play on the field to decide.

Dwayne Jarrett has an outside chance to start if he shows signs of improvements and Moose takes a heavy step back. If not, expect John Fox to go with the longtime veteran.

20% chance to start, 100% chance to make roster

Ryne Robinson - Projected in 5 WR set/Kick Returner - 5,9 179 pounds (3rd year, Miami)

Like Dwayne Jarrett, Ryne Robinson is at a crossroads with the Panthers. Drafted in the 4th round of the 2007 NFL Draft, he was taken in hopes that he would provide a reliable return man for the Panthers. Instead, he was inconsistent in his rookie year and suffered an injury the following year that put him on IR. With Mark Jones leaving via free agency, Ryne Robinson has one more chance to prove that he can contribute to the team.

As a receiver, Ryne Robinson is a small, speedy guy. He's not going to win many jump balls, but he has that speed that can stretch the defense and give defensive backs some trouble. However, he needs to improve his hands and hold onto the football better, as he was the result of two fumbles in his limited time as a rookie. With a little work he can be a contributor in the 5 WR set.

He is also expected to return to his kick return and punt return duties in 2009. Don't expect for him to keep them long though if he struggles early in the preseason. Jonathan Stewart has experience in kickoff returns and did well in the Pac-10, and Jason Carter along with a few other receivers have the skills needed to try out as well. Ryne has flashed the skills to do his job well near the end of his rookie year, but he needs to prove that he can be more consistent for the Panthers to commit to him long-term.

95% chance to make roster

Jason Carter - Suspected in 5 WR set/Kick Returner - 6,0 205 pounds (3rd year, Texas A&M)

Jason Carter started his career with the Vikings in 2006. He stayed on their practice squad and made it onto the active roster near the end of the year before being cut at the 07 training camp. Then he came to the Panthers, and Jason Carter turned some heads and amazed the fans in training camp. It would have been enough for him to make the team, but then he blew out his knee and ended up on IR for the year. In 2009, it looks to be another developmental year for the young receiver, and he may develop into a long-term answer at slot receiver if Dwayne Jarrett takes the #2 spot later on.

Jason Carter made his mark in training camp with his speed. Excellent hands, he'll soar up and make some circus catch that makes you scratch your head and wonder how he did that. And once again, he has that 3rd year breakout label working for him too. I'd be very surprised if he's cut at the end of training camp, Jason Carter should continue to rise into the roster and make the team through one reason or another, whether it be Punt Return, Kick Return, or another man on the 5 WR set. He is a playmaker, and it would be a waste for him to ride the bench.

80% chance to make the roster

Kenny Moore - Suspected WR - 5,11 195 pounds (2nd year, Wake Forest)

With Mike Goodson being tried out for the slot receiver position, Kenny Moore's roster spot has been put into doubt. He will have to fight hard to prove worthy of being kept by the Panthers. The ceiling of our other wideouts are far too high, and if Mike Goodson can prove himself to be a capable receiver it would make Kenny Moore obsolete, and he would be cut so the extra spot could be used at other positions. Depending on how Goodson performs, it's a virtual coin-flip on whether or not he makes the final roster. Will the Panthers go with 5 wideouts and accept Mike Goodson as a 6th? Or will they elect for 6 wideouts like they have in the past? The job of Kenny Moore hangs in the balance.

50% chance to make the roster

Larry Beavers - Suspected cut - 5,10 167 pounds (Rookie year, Wesleyan)

Averaged 39.5 yards per kick return and an amazing 29.2 yards per punt return as a senior at Wesley. He has a chance to make the team as a kick and punt returner. Though at 5.10 and 167 pounds, he is extremely tiny for his size. He's going to have to bulk up a bit to withstand the pounding he'll receive from other teams, one good lick will knock this kid out cold.

25% chance to make the roster

Jason Chery - Suspected KR/PR - 5,11 185 pounds (Rookie year, Louisiana-Lafayette)

A fellow Rajun Cajun from the same school as Panthers Jake Delhomme, Jason Chery declined offers from the Steelers and the Saints after the draft to sign an offer with the Panthers. A little-known player that was on the rise as the draft approached, he didn't manage to crack the 7th round. He listed Carolina as his choice mainly because he believed that Carolina would be his best bet to make the team as a Punt or Kick returner. He will attempt to do this during training camp, but with more skilled players ahead of him the chances of him making it are very little. He seems destined to make the practice squad on some team.

20% chance to make the roster

Kevin McMahan - Suspected cut - 6,2 196 pounds (2006 Mr. Irrevelant, Maine)

After being thrown around from team to team, practice squad to practice squad, the 2006 Mr. Irrevelant makes it to Carolina with a interesting skill set. He's 6,2 and runs a 4.4, yet he's never been able to put it all together to be a starter in the league. His desire to play the game is questionable, he once left a game while playing with the Raiders because he had bit his tongue. Seems like just another camp body.

5% chance to make roster

Marcus Monk - Suspected cut - 6,4 222 pounds (2nd year, Arkansas)

Monk is a big body, but he doesn't have the speed to provide for anything other than an endzone possession receiver. Never latched onto a practice squad during his rookie year, which is worrisome. He has a high ceiling as a possession receiver, but not enough to justify keeping him around. Expect him to be cut.

0% chance to make roster

Anthony Gonzalez and Wide Reciever Stats, Part 2

shake n bake — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:56:14 -0000

I explained how Catch% and YPR are very important tools for evaluating WRs and showed Anthony Gonzalez's success in both in part 1. Now I'll expand on the relationship between the two, and what it can tell us about WR performance.

YPR isn't a perfect measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball. A 15 yard pass could be a pass caught 3 yards deep and run for 12 more yards, or it could be a pass caught 15 yards deep with no YAC, or anything between. Since not all WRs are equally good at running after the catch, and certain routes allow for different amounts of YAC, YPR isn't the best measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball.

Luckily some places WR YAC is kept, allowing a calculation of the average depth a WR caught the ball. This should be the best measure of WR usage available without going through play by play.

There were 168 player-seasons with 50+ targets the last two years. Among these 168 their AirYPR and Catch% had a r squared value (the percent of the variance in Catch% accounted for by AirYPR) of .16 , meaning that 16% of the variation in catch% can be accounted for by YPR. That is a small correlation, but it is significant, especially when considering that it doesn't account for WR skill, defense ability or QB skill. The average depth a WR catches the ball at, accounts for 16% of the variation in the percent of the time he catches the ball. To relate this level of relatedness, this is a similar correlation to team wins vs Offensive Yards Per Carry and team wins vs team penalties (or more accurately, since the correlation for penalties is negative, team losses and penalties).

Just like committing penalties is a significant factor is losing games and running for a good YPC is related to winning, a WRs AirYPR is related to his Catch%.

So there's a solid relation between the two. Now the useful part. Mgrex03 lent me a hand to use a logarithmic regression instead of the a straight linear one I used before. Average AirAPR was 9.18 and average catch% was 58.8%. Combining these two with the logarithmic regression gives a formula for the catch% of an average receiver for a given AirYPR. We can compare this to the WRs actual catch% for a measure of how well a WR catches the football.

It's not an overall metric of WRs because YAC is excluded. A WR's job breaks down into Getting Open, Catching the Football and Running after the Catch. This covers none of the run after, pretty much all of the catching and some elements of getting open (more room to catch raising catch%). As a alternative to the rate stat, there's Receptions over Average, the WR's receptions minus (the expected catch% for his AirYPR muliplied by his targets). Giving how many more or less catches the player had compared to what would be expected for an average WR with the player's number of targets.

And now the results

Full spreadsheet here (download)

Top 10 Catch% over average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Ike Hilliard 08	58	+17.8%
Anthony Gonzalez 07	51	+16.2%
Jabar Gaffney 07	50	+13.1%
Gonzalez 08	57	+12.4%
Andre Johnson 07	86	+12.3%
Steve Breaston 08	113	+10.6%
Josh Reed 08	79	+10.3%
Bobby Engram 07	134	+10.3%
Wes Welker 07	145	+10.3%
Reggie Wayne 07	156	+10.3%

Bottom 10 Catch% over Average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Marty Booker 07	105	-11.7%
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.1%
Ted Ginn Jr. 08	71	-13.6%
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-14.5%
Drew Bennett 07	73	-14.8%
Justin McCareins 08	73	-14.9%
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-15.2%
Keary Colbert 07	69	-15.6%
Roy Williams 08	82	-16.0%
Brad Smith 07	67	-16.5%

Top 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Andre Johnson 08	170	+16.4
Wayne 07	156	+16.0
Welker 07	145	+15.0
Engram 07	134	+13.9
Breaston 08	113	+12.0
Colston 07	144	+11.8
Randy Moss 07	160	+10.8
Royal 08	129	+10.7
Mason08	58	+10.6
Andre Johnson 07	150	+10.6

Bottom 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Keary Colbert	69	-10.4
Arnaz Battle 07	104	-10.8
Drew Bennett	73	-10.8
Justin McCariens 08	73	-10.8
Brad Smith	67	-11.1
Marty Booker 07	105	-12.3
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.3
Roy Williams 08	82	-13.1
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-15.1
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-21.0

Did The Draft Help The Lions?

Brandon — Fri, 15 May 2009 16:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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How could it not?

The mid-season trade of WR Roy Williams provided Detroit with Dallas' 1st and 3rd round picks, giving them five picks in the top 82. With nearly every spot on the roster in need of improvement, this was a very important draft for them.

Detroit slipped from a promising 6-2 start in 2007, to a 7-9 finish, to a 0-16 disaster. Their defense was the worst in the NFL in 2007, based on total yards allowed, and it got even worse in 2008. Their offense was respectable in 2007, thanks to a solid season from QB Jon Kitna. But Kitna got off to a poor start in 2008, was soon thereafter lost for the season with an injury, and eventually traded to Dallas this offseason.

Now they're building around No. 1 overall selection QB Matthew Stafford.

Looking back, I gave Matt Millen a thumbs up last season. He drafted two offensive starters, RT Gosder Cherlius and RB Kevin Smith, and added three defensive players in the first three rounds. Cherlius was good last season, when he wasn't taking a shot at DE Jared Allen. Smith was good too, but he had too many carries in college to expect a long NFL career and his mouth isn't doing him any favors. Millen did waste his 2nd round pick on LB Jordon Dizon, who seems destined to remain strictly a special teams player. 3rd round DT Andre Fluellen is strickly a backup. 3rd round DE Cliff Avril had 5 sacks as a rookie and has been described as one of the three best players on the team. Not a bad haul.

Here's what Detroit found in this April's draft:

1st round (No. 1 overall) - QB Matthew Stafford. I'm not a fan of this pick. He's a combine superstar who doesn't play like it on the field. That said, he's a high risk-high reward pick in a draft without a clear top player. As much as the franchise needs a boost, they can't automatically name him the starter. In recent seasons, I've watched QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Brian Brohm struggle horribly as rookies. They have to wait until he's ready.
1st round - TE Brandon Pettigrew. At first, this seemed like a luxury pick. Few tight ends are drafted in the 1st round and Detroit has so many holes on the roster. But GM Ted Thompson considered drafting Pettigrew with the No. 9 overall selection and he was the best receiver available at that spot.
2nd round - SS Louis Delmas. He's a good tackler, good in coverage, and very aggressive. But at 6'0" and 200 lbs. he's also undersized at safety. I would have liked this pick if Delmas could play cornerback. He's similar to, but a little lighter than, SS Atari Bigby, but I doubt anyone in the NFL would trade a 2nd round pick for Bigby.
3rd round - LB DeAndre Levy. I really want to like the selection of a Wisconsin Badger, but I don't like this pick. Levy is a little too slow and a little to small to play outside linebacker in the NFL. And he rarely stood out when I watched the Badgers play.
3rd round - WR Derrick Williams. As Sean notes, they could really use him as a return man. The Lions depth at WR behind Calvin Johnson is really weak, so they needed to address this position in the draft. But it seems like they drafted him a couple rounds too early.

They might strike gold with one of their later picks, but it's hard to expect anyone drafted outside top 100 players overall to be an impact player.

The more I look at this draft class, the less I like it. If Stafford and Pettigrew are future Pro Bowlers, then it's a good (maybe great) draft. But I'm not high on any of their top 5 picks except Pettigrew.

And as Sean points out, new GM Martin Mayhew doesn't represent a break from the Matt Millen era, but a continuation of it:

I will just say that I am furious with the promotion of Lewand and Mayhew. Both are from the Millen era and need to be relieved of their duties as well. No offense to Mayhew especially, but it's time to get some new faces in the front office.

Maybe it is the beginning of an improved Lions franchise. But it's more of the same; a weak draft class, signing pointless free agents like WR Keary Colbert, and a Millen inspired front office. Now they need to make a horrible trade, like when they gave away DT Shaun Rogers, and it will be like Millen never left. The Lions look like they're still at least one more front office change away from providing the Packers some real competition.

Poll

What draft grade do you give to Detroit's 2009 class?

A

68 votes

B

211 votes

C

164 votes

D

54 votes

F

26 votes

523 votes | Poll has closed

Friday Notes: Lions Sign Keary Colbert, Two More Rookie Free Agents

Sean Yuille — Fri, 08 May 2009 06:51:30 -0000

After working out wide receiver Keary Colbert on Wednesday, the Lions signed him on Thursday. Colbert played for the Lions toward the end of last season once the IR started to fill up.
The Lions also signed running back Antone Smith of Florida State and center Dan Gerberry of Ball State. Both players attended last weekend's rookie minicamp as tryouts.
Ernie Sims apparently feels much more comfortable in the Lions' new defense.
New Lions offensive lineman Kirk Barton recently had an interesting experience at a Britney Spears concert. He also is staying in a hotel for 56 nights on the Lions' tab. Barton thinks the Lions are "head and shoulders" above other NFL teams he's played for when it comes to ownership and food.
Grady Jackson was excused from the OTA earlier this week for "personal reasons," and we now know exactly why he was gone. His brother, a football player hoping to make it in the NFL, allegedly shot and killed his girlfriend and then shot himself. His brother survived the shooting and was arraigned on a first-degree murder charge. What is so odd about this story is that Jackson's brother survived a shooting back in 2002. In that case he was an innocent victim, and the shooting put his football career on hold. Only now did he work his way back to the point where he had a shot at getting a tryout with an NFL team, and now he has thrown it all away.
As most of you heard yesterday, ESPN officially hired Matt Millen.
Brett Favre reportedly is not going to unretire -- at least not yet, anyways. It is only May, after all. I'm willing to bet this isn't the last we will hear of this story. In fact, if I had to make a prediction, I would say late June/early July is when talk of Favre signing with the Vikings comes about again.

Wednesday Notes: Lions Seem Ready to Wait on Stafford

Sean Yuille — Wed, 06 May 2009 05:54:12 -0000

Based on what Martin Mayhew has said recently, it doesn't seem like we will be seeing Matthew Stafford start until he is absolutely ready. Mayhew understands that although it is good to get your rookie QB experience, it is more important to make sure they are ready first. He documented the epic fail that was the Tim Couch situation with the Browns. They intended to wait until he was truly ready but threw him in there in week 2. We all know how that turned out, and Mayhew definitely doesn't want that to happen to Stafford.
According to Gunther Cunningham, DeAndre Levy was the No. 1 middle linebacker as of yesterday. Of course, this was before Larry Foote was offered a contract, so it's safe to say Levy's stay at the top of the depth chart will be a short one.
Cunningham had quite a few good things to say about Jordon Dizon yesterday. That is unusual considering some of the things that were said about Dizon right after the new coaching staff was hired, as there was no praise whatsoever. The money quote from Cunningham was this: "I'll look at the tape at times and I'll confuse Julian Peterson with Dizon." He meant that their playing styles are very similar, but either way, that is quite the compliment considering it seemed like Dizon wasn't even going to be around for long a few months ago.
Drew Stanton is maintaining a good attitude about how he fits into the quarterback situation now that Matthew Stafford is a Lion. He seems up for the challenge.
In case you missed the FanShot yesterday, the Lions signed defensive end Eric Hicks and offensive guard Toniu Fonoti to one-year deals.
Wide receiver Keary Colbert will work out for the Lions today. He joined the Lions toward the end of last year and became a free agent after the season.
The Lions signed Spenser Smith, an undrafted linebacker from Eastern Michigan that tried out at the rookie camp last weekend.
Undrafted rookie defensive end Ryan Kees from St. Cloud State was also signed after trying out at the camp
Grady Jackson was excused from yesterday's OTA due to "personal problems."
The Browns signed former Lions receiver Mike Furrey.
For those of you that watched the Red Wings game last night, can you believe how bad the officiating was? I cannot believe that goal in the last minute didn't count. There should have been overtime, but instead the Ducks are up in the series 2-1. What an absolute joke.