SB Nation - Eric Shelton

Examining John Fox's Draft History for the Panthers

LittleKing — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 03:25:06 -0000

Nobody can predict what order players will be selected in the draft. However, many people try to predict with their mock drafts. Even SB Nation has a dedicated blog to the draft. There are many ways to narrow down the options, such as team needs.

Today I'm not going to try to predict who we will take but take a look at how Marty and Fox approach each draft with a look at our draft history compared to our team needs each year with a focus on the first three rounds. After that it pretty much becomes best projected available. I also will try not to judge their draft on success as at the time they were selecting players who they thought would help.

Marty Hurney and John Fox joined the Panthers after the horrible 2001 season and ended up with the 2nd overall pick in the 2002 draft. Looking back through archived Sporting News articles Pay Yasinskas has this to say about in mid April 2002:

North Carolina DE Julius Peppers is the most logical choice with the first-round pick. Peppers is a bit raw, but he can bring aggressiveness to a defense that needs more of that. Also, taking a local player might help at the box office. But don't rule out Texas CB Quentin Jammer as the first pick. He's outstanding in coverage and already is polished, and the team doesn't have a proven starting cornerback on its roster. If the Panthers don't take him, they're likely to take a corner in the second round, where Miami's Mike Rumph could be available. The team also wants a feature back and will be tempted to use the second-round pick on UCLA's DeShaun Foster or Miami's Clinton Portis.

He definitely was spot on in his analysis that year. Yet for a team in such disarray it wasn't hard to predict the teams need. They addressed two big needs that year in a DE and RB. The other listed big need was at CB in which they selected Dante Wesley in the fourth round. Yet he has only started two games in his 7 year career (6 with Carolina and 1 with Chicago). But I pretty much give anything past the 3rd round a pass. At that point you just take what's on the board. I think it's also interesting to be reminded of the other players we might have targeted, Jammer and Portis for example.

Draft 2002 Results: Selected by need

Moving to the next year the team had shown improvement. Of course it really would be hard to get worse. The Defense had ranked 2nd in the NFL that year and so the focus of the off season was the offense. We had the 8th overall pick in the draft and took a cornerstone position in selecting T Jordan Gross. The next pick was C Bruce Nelson (2nd round #50 overall) who only played one season mainly because of injuries. The 3rd round we picked up TE Mike Seidman and CB Ricky Manning Jr.

Draft 2003 results: Selected by need

After the 2003 Superbowl run, many where saying we had very few needs and most weren't large needs at that. Again as published in the Sporting News magazine Pat Yasinskas suggested with the 31st pick a CB could be the target.

The team would like to add a cornerback and safety. Getting a shutdown corner with the first pick would be ideal, but the talent might not be top-notch at No. 31. USC's Will Poole and Tusculum's Ricardo Colclough are likely to be available late in the first round

While his picks weren't right, the position was and we actually traded up four spots from 31st to 28th (and also giving up our fourth round pick) to acquire CB Chris Gamble. So far this has paid off but as we've talked about quite a bit it would be wise when the situation calls for it to use him with MTM coverage (**Cough** Fitzgerald **Cough**). We then picked up WR Kerry Colbert in the 2nd and OL Travelle Wharton in the 3rd.

It's ironic that Colclough did get his chance with Carolina but that was short lived last off season. Also of note we only had six picks that year.

Draft 2004 results: Selected by need

Many thought we had the team together to make another run in the 2004 season but we feel flat starting the season 1-7 before we started a 5 game winning streak but ultimately missed the playoffs. We did see an immediate impact from rookie WR Keary Colbert as he stepped up in the absence of Steve Smith due to a broken leg. The team needs pointed back to the OL, outside linebackers, and--since we lost Muhsin Muhammad--wide receiver again. By picking S Thomas Davis (converted to LB) and RB Eric Shelton and finally OL Evan Mathis.

This draft is hard to categorize as need or best available. Mainly because looking back this was such a horrible draft. Yet, I have to lean towards need as taken objectively we did go after several key positions, although some where neglected.

Draft 2005 results: Selected by need

The start of the on-off seasons was now underway. After the slip in 2004 we return to form in 2005 making the playoffs as a wildcard team. Handing the Giants a big fat zero then moving onto Chicago. However, by the time we got to Seattle we didn't have our starting RB Foster (already had lost Stephen Davis) and other injuries including a re-injured shoulder to Julius Peppers. Then during the Seattle game lost Goings and ended up down to our 4rd string RB Jamal Anderson. With all of this RB was an obvious need. We also lost LB Will Witherspoon and Brandon Short, so LB was a need as well. Also by this time Mike Minter was getting older so safety wouldn't be out of the question. With our first pick RB DeAngelo Williams, 2nd pick CB Richard Marshall, 3rd pick LB James Anderson. We also had some decent picks after the 3rd round, including TE Jeff King.

Draft 2006 results: Selected by need

Back to the off season, and no I don't mean Feb through August. In 2006 we again missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record. Although before the season it once again appeared things may fall into place. Our defense finished the season 7th in yards allowed but the offense was 24th in total yards. With this in mind you would believe the offense would be the focus. Yet I found more focus on the defense going into the draft with Safety being a big concern.

Dan Morgan again showed he had injury problems, thus our first pick of LB Jon Beason wasn't completely surprising. In the 2nd round they took a reach for WR Dwayne Jarrett who had slipped down the projected board. Then taking C Ryan Kalil with our 2nd pick in the 2nd round was also a best available choice. We finished the first three round with DE Charles Johnson.

This one is a another one hard to judge but based on where the offense and defense ended the season it tilted more towards best available.

Draft 2007 results: Mixed but more toward best available

As far as the 2007 season, while it should have been an up year in the Fox era, the injury to Delhomme proved to be too much. We figured with the pickup of David Carr we had a solid backup and possible replacement but it was just a wreck with David Carr being benched to save his dignity late in the season. Also, with the addition of Dwayne Jarrett we released our only solid #2 WR option Keyshawn Johnson which proved to be costly. Colbert never developed after his rookie season and Jarrett just wasn't ready for the NFL. This left many questions after the season. However, with the QB protection problems that appeared the OL was a great place to start. Then many wanted to target someone on the DL in the second round. Of course after DeShaun Foster was released we knew a RB could be an option.

The DL was ignored until the sixth round, but we did trade up to select T Jeff Otah. Of course our first pick went to RB Jonathan Stewart. We also got the safety we didn't get the year before in S Charles Godfrey. Finishing the first three rounds we pick up Don Conner. This was a bit surprising as our LB group wasn't really in question. But saying 3 out of 4 picks went towards needs this was a need based draft.

Draft 2008 results: Selected by need

So this brings us to the upcoming 2009 draft. I was actually quite surprised to see such a strong drafting towards need each year. I had the impression initially that Hurney and Fox liked to draft more on the basis of best available. But with all of his in mind I have a good feeling they will put our current five picks to good use, with the possibility of more if Peppers is actually traded, but I get the feeling this isn't going to happen before the draft, if at all. However, don't be surprised if they skip an area of need in the draft. Yet with our first pick we should target a DL player but after that it's a wild guess of what direction we will go.

Do we hate Memphis football?

Mike Rutherford — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:00:07 -0000

Since an early age we've all been made aware of the fact that hate "is a strong word," but we'll use it liberally here, if only because we can. Besides, the fortress of taboo surrounding the word has been severely crumbling in recent years. This guy I used to hang out with in college told me Napoleon's troops had been using it for target practice. It's one theory.

Friday night will mark the first meeting between Louisville and Memphis (State) on either the hardwood or gridiron since the 2004-05 athletic season. The long-time rivals have met a total of 135 times in the two sports, but not once since U of L bolted for the greener pastures of the Big East three years ago.

In spite of the separation, I think it's safe to say that the heat between the basketball programs - or at least the fans of the basketball programs - has yet to fizzle. Part of that is because both have been so successful since the split, but most of it is due to the deep-seeded feelings of ill-will produced over a span of decades.

There isn't a Louisville fan out there who felt the smallest bit of sympathy for Darius Washington when he choked, who wouldn't still pay good money to punch Larry Finch in the face, or who still resents Elliot Perry for trying to ruin both goggles and high socks for all of us. That type of disdain doesn't just disappear because of a brief (at the moment) hiatus in the series.

But what about football? The prospect of a pair of .500 teams scratching and clawing to play their way into a pre-Christmas or post-New Year's ESPN2 bowl game isn't exactly going to fire up the nation for Friday night football, but is there enough abhorrence present to at least fuel the respective fan bases?

Let's break down the yes and no.

Yes - The all-time series is a tight 21-19 in Louisville's favor

The Cards and Tigers first met in The Bluff City in 1948, and then dueled in every year from 1968-1983 and 1986-2004. Of the 40 games the two have played, nearly half (18) have been decided by a touchdown or less.

No - The Cardinals have won 10 of the last 12 meetings

Even though the all-time series is tight, U of L has been the vastly superior program for the past two decades, and while the games have often been close, Memphis has won just three times since 1987.

Let's face it, when the program was emerging in the mid-to-late '90s, Louisville's conference rivalries with Southern Mississippi, Cincinnati and TCU were burning far brighter than the one with the Tigers. U of M beat up on U of L pretty badly before 1980, and the Cards have been returning the favor for the last 20 years. The fact that the programs have never seemed to be on an equal plane hasn't helped with the animosity.

Yes - The pair's last meeting was a classic

The Louisville/Memphis game freshest in the minds of fans just may have been the best in the history of the series. The Cards and Tigers combined for 105 points and 1,202 total yards of offense as a last-minute Eric Shelton touchdown propelled U of L to a 56-49 road victory. Stefan LeFors threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns while U of M tailback DeAngelo Williams torched the Cardinals for 200 yards and a score of his own.

No - The difference between BCS conference and non-BCS conference is too great

Conference USA lost the crux of its top-tier when Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida and TCU took off after 2004, and the league hasn't produced a champion with fewer than four losses since. Getting Memphis fans fired up for a tilt with a respectable name from the Big East isn't too tall of task, but asking the Cardinal faithful to bring the passion for a game with a mid-level team from a below-average conference is a tougher sell.

Yes - The 2003 loss

Before Syracuse officially terminated the Steve Kragthorpe honeymoon by snapping the nation's second longest home winning streak, the last team to have defeated the Cards inside Papa John's Cardinal Stadium was Memphis. The Tigers didn't just win, they romped to a 37-7 embarrassment, handing Louisville what would prove to be the worst loss of the Bobby Petrino era.

No - Memphis hasn't been good at football since ever

The Tigers haven't won a conference championship since 1971, and have only managed to pull off postseason wins in the '03 New Orleans Bowl (over North Texas) and '05 Motor City Bowl (over Akron) in the years since. Rivalries which owe their roots to proximity can withstand years of futility, but it's harder for secondary rivalries like Louisville's with Memphis to rage when one side is or both sides are consistently average at best.

Yes - The basketball rivalry is that intense

When two high-profile programs have a uniquely rich history in a single sport, the rivalry automatically carries over to all other sports. It's why the North Carolina/Duke football game or Michigan/Ohio State baseball game is always going to attract more fans than an average contest involving the teams.

Yes - Louisville fans have grown to hate the Liberty Bowl

When your reward for winning a conference championship is freezing your ass off on or the day before New Year's Eve, it's impossible not to inherit an extra bit of hostility towards the event's host city and university...especially when you're forced to do it approximately 37 times between 1993 and 2004.

Obviously, these games had nothing to do with the Tiger football program, but act like they didn't make you dislike Memphis even more.

Conclusion

To be honest, I'm having a hard time getting on the Memphis football bandwagon of hate, partially because I'm not sure I've ever harbored any particularly intense feelings of detestation toward the gridiron Tigers. Would I like to beat Memphis more than a comparable program like Central Florida or UTEP strictly because of the heightened level of history between the Cards and Tigers? Sure, but that still places U of M markedly behind Kentucky, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Cincinnati and Rutgers in terms of both my general disdain for and desire to topple opponents on the 2008 schedule.

Still, chair fights, Calipari, batteries and switchblades being thrown onto the court. Kind of makes you hope extra hard that Earl Heyman lays out the Tiger quarterback...even if you don't know what his name is.