SB Nation - LaVar Arrington

New York Giants News & Notes: Giants Have a Little Swagger Back

cjmulrain — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:28 -0000

Fred Robbins posts on his blog about the Giants win over the Cowboys and their upcoming game against the Eagles. He mentions that the Giants have their swagger back after excelling in all 3 phases of the game on Sunday.
Domenik Hixon was a big part of the reason the Giants Special Teams performed well, returning a key punt for a touchdown. For his efforts, he has been named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week. Amazingly, that was the Giants first punt return touchdown since Chad Morton returned one against the Cardinals back in 2005.
Another key to the Giants performance against the Cowboys was how well the defense responded to the shuffling starting lineups on the defensive line. Osi Umenyiora should especially be commended for taking his demotion in stride, and coming up with a huge fumble recovery. For that, maybe we should thank LaVar Arrington. He was a bust as a free agent for the Giants a few years ago, but if his pep talk really helped Osi get his head right, I'll be forever grateful.
In perhaps the best news of the week, Chris Snee's knee is "very sore," but not seriously injured. It's still undecided if he will be able to play on Sunday, but it's at least good news that he won't miss significant time. Snee is the best player on the Giants offensive line and they're gonna need him down the stretch.
The Giants will have revenge on their minds Sunday against the Eagles. The Eagles have beaten the Giants in 3 straight meetings and have handed the Giants their last two playoff losses (of course, a Super Bowl Championship was squeezed in between, so we can't complain too much). I heard a lot about the revenge angle when these teams met a few weeks ago, and the Giants got killed. At this point, I don't care about revenge, I just want the Giants to win the damn game and get back into first place in the NFC East.
Steve Serby talks about "Hate Bowl II" and looks at the remaining schedules for the Giants and their playoff spot competition. On paper it looks good for the Giants, as long as they can beat the Eagles. That said, "any given Sunday" - which is why I hate looking ahead on the schedule. As the 2007 (and 2008) Mets proved, you can lose tro anyone down the stretch.
I joked about this in the comments a few days ago, but Plaxico Burress is looking for a work furlough to get him out of prison parttime. I'm extremely happy with our current crop of wide receivers & I know Plax left a bitter taste in a lot of mouths, but I'd be willing to take him back just for this weeks game against the Eagles & let him run a few plays. He always dominated the Eagles, and the Super Bowl run showed that he really doesn't need to practice. I'm only half-joking about this.
Finally, the NY Times 5th Down Blog continues its look at the 10 greatest Giants moments at Giants Stadium with their 41-0 NFC Championship Game beatdown of the Minnesota Vikings. It's really a shame they cancelled the Super Bowl that year, I really think after that performance the Giants would have absolutely destroyed the Ravens. I mean, Trent Dilfer...c'mon!

Pour Some Sugar On Me - Roger Goodell Establishes What the Fine Will Be If Dan Snyder Does Not Fire Vinny Cerrato

Sugar — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:45:10 -0000

In case you missed it, the Tennessee Titans owner was filmed giving Buffalo Bills fans the ol' bird from his perch on Sunday. If you aren't a Bills player, fan or employee--or Roger Goodell--you probably laughed your ass off. Goodell dropped a $250,000 fine on Bud Adams today...which leads me to my headline...because if Snyder does not fire Cerrato, he will be essentially flipping the entire Redskins fanbase the middle finger, and should be fined at least the same $250,000 amount.

Ten Yard Fight - 10 Chances To Make One Good Point

It's Dallas Week, so this week, instead of covering the league, I got 10 great memories of involving the hated Cowgirls. This is not an exhaustive list, nor is it any particular order. Feel free to add to this collection in the comments section below.

1) Darryl Grant's catch of a Dexter Manley tipped ball and subsequent touchdown in the NFC Championship game in 1982. It is one of my earliest memories of watching the Redskins period. I was barely 5 years old. The win over the despicable Cowgirls put us in the Super Bowl and the television images of RFK rocking are burned into my brain. Box score here.

2) Lavar Arrington tracking down Troy Aikman and sending him to the broadcasting booth. I admit this is kind of a macabre memory to love, but this one is great for multiple reasons. First, after so many Sundays of getting burned by Aikman over the years, it was satisfying (and fitting) that it be the Redskins that ended his career. Guys like him would and could play forever but they usually get knocked out of the league. Troy made the right decision to retire and as it turns out, he is one hell of a television broadcaster. He is generally fair and even-handed when he calls Redskins games, though since he is on the "A" team for Fox, we have rarely gotten him over the years.

3) Darrell Green's last game as a Redskin. The miserable Cowgirls were in complete disarray that week. Dave Campo's job was in question and the players on his sideline had completely phoned it in. We probably had no business beating that team but they were so obviously out of sorts it was hardly a contest. Both teams finished with losing records that year, but the going away present everyone wanted to give Darrell was a home victory over the pitiful Cowgirls. Box score here.

4) Brunell to Moss twice in the 4th quarter on Monday Night Football. I sat in stunned silence as the seconds ticked away in a loss that most likely was going to cost us the season. I was at a bar in Bethesda and as some of my buddies were ready to roll, I told them I kind of had to watch the end of this one. I had to witness the final whistle on my hopes for the season. The first touchdown to Moss was fun, but that feeling in my stomach that it was too little, too late was impossible to ignore. Then...no way...a seconddeep ball to Moss? With the lead in hand now, I was left to ponder the sick joke being played on us all that night: we come all the way back in the last minute only to lose to a field goal at the last second. The ensuing defensive stop was awesome, and everyone went crazy. Every car on the street was honking and every passerby was high-fiving. Box score here.

5) I would like to take this moment to remember a few moments from the pathetic Cowgirls' history that did not involve the Skins. Both were playoff games, and both put BIG smiles on my face. The first was back in 1998, in a playoff game against the Cardinals. Jake "The Snake" Plummer led the Cards to a huge win over Dallas. I might be mistaken, but it could have been their first playoff victory. Have the Cowgirls won a playoff game since then? Maybe they have, but I am not so sure. The second moment was more recent. When the Cowgirls had the game in hand against the Seahawks in the 2006-2007 playoffs, Romo was set to hold for a game-winning field goal. The rest is not only history, it created a whole new vocabulary. In prison, they now say, "Don't 'Romo' the soap!" I tell my two year old not to "Romo" his bottle. Cell phone users hate it when their calls are "Romo'ed".

6) The blocked field goal/Sean Taylor return a few years ago. It was a pretty classic slugfest but with the score tied 19-19, we found ourselves on defense with the low-life Cowgirls driving to put it away on the leg of Mike Vanderjagt. I remember it all too well...Jason Witten absolutely abusing Adam Archuleta for a huge gainer to set up the last-second kick. Once again, I found myself sitting in my seat awaiting the inevitable. I did not have the best angle to see the block, and once that ball was loose, it was tough to tell who had the ball. But then there was #21, making his way for the game-winner. Everyone was going nuts...but even within the moment, I knew it was overtime, since the clock was ticking down to zero during the play. Sean Taylor's head-whip was visible from my seat. It was an obvious call. When the referee announced we were going to have one more play from the end of the penalty, it was as if he actually announced, "Everyone is going to get laid." Nick Novak...47 yards...ball game. Box score here.

7) Darrell Green chasing down Tony Dorsett on Monday Night Football. This one I did not see live. I have seen it a million times though and it always makes me gawk. Forget the game itself...in one moment, one of the greatest running backs in the league was shown to be very mortal, and an unknown, undersized cornerback put himself on the map forever.

8) Jason Buck pushing the center into Troy Aikman, forcing the fumble and the ensuing Emmitt Smith gaffe that led to the Danny Copeland touchdown. I believe it was the season opener, on Monday Night Football with Mark Rypien under center for the Skins. I was a hot pretzel vendor at RFKstadium in high school and I had a knack for making sure I was selling pretzels in a section with the best view of the action on the field. On this play, I was actually behind the end zone that the Cowgirls were playing out of, and I saw the whole thing unfold. Jason Buck lined up over the Dallas center and on the snap, he bullrushed the dude right into Troy Aikman who never had a chance. Emmitt Smith made a huge bonehead error by not covering the ball (did he try and throw it or just muff it?) and we recovered for the touchdown. Only thing is, the refs never saw any of it. Danny Copeland, who had recovered the ball for the touchdown, had run almost to midfield celebrating. The refs were still looking in the pile of linemen for the ball. Everyone was yelling and pointing at Copeland, who then ran back and showed the refs the ball. I remember thinking, "Are they just going to take his word in this?" We beat the sad-sack Cowgirls handily, but that was pretty much the end of the "good old days" era. I think that was Richie Petitbon's debut? Box score here.

9) Cooley's 3 TD performance in 2005 to propel us to the playoffs. Mark Brunell threw four total touchdown passes in a game where we absolutely dominated the detestable Cowgirls. It was one of the best games I have ever been to at FedEx. Drew Bledsoe threw three interceptions and Clinton Portis ran for 112 yards to go along with the studly performance from Cooley. Box score here.

10) I'll make this one last since I know that the wretched Cowgirls were barely trying, but in November of 2007, we grabbed the final NFC playoff spot by holding Marion Barber to -1 rushing yards and the entire team to only 1 yard rushing. They actually brought Tony Romo back out for a series in the second half but quickly removed him to prevent a certain injury. Our defense was incredibly nasty that day. Box score here.

On these, I certainly stand to be corrected on any facts I may have misstated. I am very aware of some of the older games played between the two teams that featured such greats as Ken Houston, Sonny Jurgensen, Charley Taylor...I am hopeful that those of you out there who saw these games firsthand will share your memories.

Give Me The Numbers, STAT!

PSSOM Notes...Well last week I pulled for Jim Zorn to be given another year and we had quite the lengthy discussion about it. Nothing quite as controversial about this week's edition I'm afraid. It seems though that some of my article titles are not getting through to folks. Seriously, the fact that even one person "corrected" the Animal House reference yesterday is embarrassing. Last week, one poor soul didn't get the Def Leppard reference in the title of this weekly piece (this marks the 14th edition of the PSSOM series.) We need to do better. Finally, we have to stay positive after the big win and prior to the showdown in Dallas, but we can't just forget altogether the joke of a front office we have. If we reserve all commentary on that subject for losing weeks we not only come off as whiners, we become no better than mindless kittens, distracted by the ball of yarn that is each win. I'll keep it simple and I'll keep the message on point. The following list represents a possible example of a good front office--do your own compare and contrast with Vinny Cerrato's reign of terror:

Notable First Round Draft Picks

1996 - T Jonathan Ogden
LB Ray Lewis
1997 - LB Peter Boulware
1999 - CB Chris McAllister
2000 - RB Jamal Lewis
2001 - TE Todd Heap
2002 - S Ed Reed
2003 - LB Terrell Suggs
QB Kyle Boller
2005 - WR Mark Clayton
2006 - DT Haloti Ngata
2007 - G Ben Grubbs
2008 - QB Joe Flacco
2009 - T Michael Oher

By the way, I counted and these men have combined for 39 Pro Bowls. That does not include any from Haloti Ngata, who will get his fair share I am sure. I don't particularly care for the Ravens, but Ozzie Newsome is simply a class act. Every pick may not be a Hall of Famer, but only one of these guys didn't pan out (Boller). You want to hear the worst part? They have a stated rule that every year they draft at least one offensive lineman. Now, I don't know how that has worked out each year, but holy crap is that a refreshing philosophy.

Image via www.shwiggie.com

Rich Tandler, Author of 'The Redskins Chronicle' Sits Down To Discuss His Book with Hogs Haven

Ken Meringolo — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:05:30 -0000

Our friend from Real Redskins, Rich Tandler, has just published his latest book, The Redskins Chronicle. He took the time this week to sit down with us and we peppered him with questions about the book as well as his personal history as a Redskins fan.

HH: How long did it take you to compile all of this information? From the time you thought of doing this book to the time it was ready to publish, how much time elapsed?

Rich: The short answer is about 15 years. I started to do my first book, The Redskins From A to Z, in about 1994. I published that in 2002. The Redskins Chronicle is an update, revision, and expansion of that book.

HH: In your opinion, what defines an "era" more for fans: coaches or players?

Rich: Coaches define eras. The players come and go, the coaches stay. Of course with the Gibbs era there was a core of players who helped define that era.

HH: Who were you able to get interviews with and of those you interviewed, who kind of stood out? What was something you learned while talking to some of these folks that really opened your eyes to an issue you may not have previously considered?

Rich: I did no interviews for this book. In the early going I decided that it was best to use sources from the time that the game or event took place. The effects of time, and the human tendency to tell versions of fish tales, tend to detract from the accuracy of contemporaneous accounts of events in the past. So, I did the research primarily from back issues of the Post, Times, and other newspapers. There are plenty of quotes from players and coaches but they were made at the time of the events being covered.

HH: Of all the teams you "Chronicled", what team is closest to your heart? Why?

Rich: I have to go with the 1972 team. That was the first time that had been really good in such a long time. Plus George Allen lived in McLean where I did and I would run across him from time to time. Of course, I was a dumb teenager and had no idea what to say to him, but it was cool making a fool out of myself. There were the added elements of Sonny vs. Billy and the Over the Hill Gang. Great times.

HH: You include a lot of news clips scattered throughout the book. Did you notice anything different in the way the beat guys covered the team through the years compared to today?

Rich: The D. C. sports writer has remained remarkably consistent over the years. He (and an occasional she) will recount a game that was well-played by the Redskins in stirring tones. When the Skins lay an egg there is no excuse making but they generally don't get beaten up too badly. The beat writers did get to develop a little bit of a homer tint during the 50's and 60's when the team was awful year after year; I guess the felt that they had to keep the sunny side up to maintain readers.

HH: Over the last 70 years, the Redskins have had some serious ebb and flow with regard to their record/on-the-field success. How would you characterize the passion of the fans as the team went through these ups and downs? How would you compare the fans of these different eras with the fans of the team today?

Rich: I think that Redskins fans--in fact, most football fans--get complacent very easily. I remember the two home playoff games for the 1983 defending champion Redskins. It would be a stretch to say that the crowd at RFK was lifeless but there certainly was a ho-hum attitude there. I think that passionate fans remain passionate fans but the folks on the fringes get into it when they're winning and are in shopping malls on Sundays when they're losing. I don't think that fans are that much different today than they were in the past. Certainly today it's more of a year-round deal with the NFL's off-season drawing so much attention and with so many avenues to discuss it. It used to be that you'd pay attention around the time of the draft and not tune in again until training camp started. Also, today's Redskins fans get much higher when things go well and have to be talked off of a ledge when a one-game losing streak takes place.

HH: Of the 7 decades you "Chronicle", can you pick out a player from each decade that serves as a favorite of yours? What made him stand out to you and how would he fare in today's NFL?

Rich: Certainly Sammy Baugh defined the team from when it moved from Boston through the 1940's. The team was mediocre to bad for most of the 50's but defensive end Gene Brito was the most accomplished player on the team. The 60's belonged to Sonny, although certainly he doesn't get it done without support from Charley Taylor, Bobby Mitchell and Jerry Smith. I'm going to give the 70's to Chris Hanburger even though he had a good chunk of his prime years in the sixties. Someone has to represent Allen's defense and Hanburger was Allen's extension on the field. With bows to Monk, Riggo, and a few others Joe Jacoby is the man of the 80's. Not only was he a Hog but he came in as an undrafted free agent, symbolizing the blue-collar nature of so many of the core members of those teams. Darrell Green gets the nod in the 1990's. He was a star player on some pretty bad teams. This decade, LaVar Arrington epitomizes the team--a lot of hype, some great moments but, in the end, a disappointment.

HH: Almost 50 years of Redskins/Cowgirls rivalry in this book. What can you share from the book that the casual observer may have missed regarding the history of these games?

Rich: It's very unusual for them to play with a lot on the line. There have been a few exceptions but of the approximately 80 games they've played there have been maybe half a dozen where a lot was on the line for both teams and another 10 or 15 where it was a big game for one team or the other.

HH: In the course of writing this book, was the current management/ownership responsive in helping you with your endeavor?

Rich: Since I used the media sources I didn't need the cooperation of the team, just the library.

HH: Finally, if you could go back and change one roster addition/trade/cut...who would it be?

Rich: I've got to go with two from the old school. First there was the trade of safety Paul Krause to theVikings for linebacker Marlin McKeever. Krause is in the Hall of Fame and is still the NFL's all-time leader in interceptions while McKeever never was better than just an OK player. Second, in the 1967 draft their first-round pick, 13th overall, was fullback Ray McDonald, who lasted a couple of mediocre years. Taken two picks later was defensive end Alan Page, who was a Hall of Fame defensive end for the Vikings. Taken two picks after that was Gene Upshaw, a Hall of Fame guard before becoming head of the NFLPA. If George Allen had Krause and either Page or Upshaw on his team we're talking about multiple Super Bowls.

Washington Redskins' Jason Campbell chats with Lavar Arrington

KevinE — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:50:54 -0000

The maiden voyage of WJFK's Lavar Arrington show was yesterday from 2-6pm. I listened to 3 hours of it, including the Jason Campbell interview. All in all, I thought the show was entertaining and Lavar did a good job of being funny yet insightful. The first few minutes of the show they established that neither of them were gay. So that is settled.

The heart of the show was the lead-up to the interview with Jason Campbell. Lavar boldly predicted the Auburn quarterback would not be a Redskin next year, comparing his situation where he was pushed out to Jason's situation. Lavar went into thorough detail of how he was forced out of DC stating that the coaches kept saying he couldn't learn Gregg Williams' defense. He said there was nothing further from the truth and that he was the fall guy. He backed his opinion stating Gregg Williams is on his second team in as many years and was rejected the head coaching job in D.C. Lavar then said it's going to be the same thing for Jason. When the offense still sputters, it's going to be the coaches and team saying that Campbell couldn't learn his offense. I'm paraphrasing over an hour's worth of discussion, but Lavar made some good points.

Ryan O'Hallaran from WaTimes blogged some of the interview with #17:

* (on feeling the pressure to perform): "The one thing people don't understand - we live in such an inpatient business. All of the pieces of the puzzle have to fall into place - from top to bottom on the whole team.

* (on if the pieces in place to be explosive offensively): "Last year during OTAs, we had maybe 58 pass plays and this year, we finished OTAs with more than 130. It was much a more wide open book and wide open format. ... The coaches [Zorn] hired, it wasn't like they were together on the same team before they got here. They had to learn together. They're more sure of the plays we were able to add. We were learning as we went from game to game last year."

It's almost comical to hear that the Redskins only had 58 pass plays in OTA's last year. Breaking down film against the Redskins offense must have been laughable by opposing teams.

In the middle of the interviewwith Jason, Chad Dukes asked Campbell if they could put him on hold for a quick commercial break. (Pause). "Sure." Haha. Man. I don't think I would have been as nice.

Image via images.cbssports.com

Fisking Football Outsiders: I. Mediocre Manny?

Florida Danny — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:32:32 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Over the next week or so, I'll be fisking Football Outsiders' review/preview of the 49ers in their recently released Almanac. Being that I'm a devotee of theirs, you'd think I'm going to agree with everything they wrote. Stick with me through these articles, and you might just find yourself (un)pleasantly surprised.

On Tuesday, Fooch detailed his thoughts about the Niner chapter in Football Outsiders' (FO) Almanac 2009. He pretty much covered all the bases, so I'm not going to rehash what's already been said. Rather, I'm going to evaluate some of FO's arguments from a statistical point of view. Today, in Part 1 of this series, I'm going to address an assertion they made - in the context of McCloughan draft failures - about the potentially mediocre career potential of Manny Lawson. Here's the relevant passage in full (emphasis mine):

Manny Lawson, the 22^nd overall pick, missed most of his second season with a torn ACL, but over three years he has just 5.5 sacks in 32 games. That's not what a team desperate for a pass rusher was hoping for. When the team went to a nickel package as their defensive base last year, Lawson went to the bench, a sign of his lack of development. Even if we pretend that those 32 games only came over two seasons, there's not a lot of hope for Lawson; of the last 32 linebackers to be drafted in the first round and produce fewer than six sacks in their first two years, only two - LaVar Arrington and Jamir Miller - have produced a ten-sack season afterwards.

After the jump, I'll use statistics to show you why FO's argument is like comparing apples and oranges...

Let's dissect the last sentence in that paragraph. The associations FO is drawing here involve (a) LBs drafted in the 1^st round, (b) the number of total sacks such players have produced in his first two years, and (c) the maximum number of sacks in a season that such players have produced after their first two years.

When I read this, I immediately thought of a couple of questions the answers to which might be useful to know:

How many LBs drafted in the first round have produced 6+ total sacks in their first 2 years?
How many LBs drafted in the first round have produced a 10+ sack season after their first 2 years?
How many of the LBs drafted in the first round whom produced 6+ total sacks in their first 2 years actually went on to have a 10+ sack season later in their career?
Is there really something else going on here that quickly explains away LB sack performance that doesn't lead you to conclude Manny Lawson is a bust?

I'll address the last question first because its answer gets the ball rolling for the other 3. Those of you who've been around for a while should have come across my free agency previews this past spring. One of them specifically addressed the question, "Where do sacks come from?" Essentially, what I found - based on 2008 stats - was that the overwhelming majority of sacks are dependent on a pass rusher's position and the type of defense in which he plays. Specifically, on a team that plays a 3-4 defense, the OLBs get the lion's share of sacks. In contrast, on a team that plays a 4-3 defense, the DEs are the sack masters.

This little tidbit of information comes in handy when trying to understand (a) why Manny Lawson hasn't had 6+ in his first 2 years, and (b) why Manny Lawson may or may not have a 10+ sack season in the future. Namely, Lawson has been a 4-3 OLB his entire career save the latter part of last season when Singletary and Manusky moved to a base 3-4.

Now, with this in mind, let's look at the career sack performance of every LB drafted in the 1^st round from 1995-2005. Here's the table:

Player	Position	Yrs	Yrs Inj	G	Sack	Sack/G	Sack Max
Powell	--	3	2	14	0.0	0.000	0.0
Farrior	3-4 ILB	12	0	184	24.5	0.133	6.5
Merriman	3-4 OLB	4	1	43	39.5	0.919	17.0
Ware	3-4 OLB	4	0	64	53.5	0.836	20.0
Ellis	4-3 DE	11	0	162	77.0	0.475	12.5
Wilson, R.	4-3 DE/3-4 OLB	6	0	93	24.0	0.258	9.0
Urlacher	4-3 ILB	9	0	137	37.5	0.274	8.0
Lewis	4-3 ILB	13	2	178	33.5	0.188	5.0
Wilson, A.	4-3 ILB	8	0	125	21.5	0.172	5.0
Barnett	4-3 ILB	6	0	87	11.5	0.132	3.5
Morgan	4-3 ILB	7	3	59	7.0	0.119	3.0
Harris	4-3 ILB	7	0	100	8.5	0.085	2.5
Morris	4-3 ILB	8	2	99	7.0	0.071	3.0
Vilma	4-3 ILB	5	1	69	3.5	0.051	2.0
Boulware	4-3 OLB	9	1	126	69.5	0.552	15.0
Peterson, J.	4-3 OLB	9	1	127	46.0	0.362	10.0
Pollack	4-3 OLB	3	2	16	4.5	0.281	4.5
Arrington	4-3 OLB	7	2	84	23.5	0.280	11.0
Hardy	4-3 OLB	9	0	134	36.0	0.269	10.5
Fields	4-3 OLB	10	1	136	34.5	0.254	8.0
Johnson, D.	4-3 OLB	4	0	59	12.0	0.203	4.5
Davis, T.	4-3 OLB	4	0	62	9.5	0.153	3.5
Spikes	4-3 OLB	11	1	156	23.5	0.151	6.0
Bulluck	4-3 OLB	9	0	143	18.0	0.126	5.0
Simmons, A.	4-3 OLB	7	2	87	10.0	0.115	4.0
Rudd	4-3 OLB	7	0	109	11.5	0.106	5.0
Mobley	4-3 OLB	8	2	105	10.5	0.100	4.0
Brown, Reg.	4-3 OLB	2	0	26	2.5	0.096	2.5
Williams, D.J.	4-3 OLB	5	0	75	6.5	0.087	2.5
Brooks	4-3 OLB	14	0	224	13.5	0.060	3.0
Thomas, R.	4-3 OLB	7	1	84	2.0	0.024	2.0
Simmons, B.	4-3 OLB/4-3 ILB	10	1	137	24.0	0.175	6.5
Brooking	4-3 OLB/4-3 ILB	11	1	161	17.0	0.106	3.5
Katzenmoyer	4-3/3-4 ILB	3	2	24	3.5	0.146	3.5
Total		252	28	3489	726.5	0.208

For your convenience, I've organized the table by the primary position these LB draft picks played during their careers. If there's more than one position listed for a player, it means he played an equal number of years at each position.

Of the 34 LBs, only 3 have played the majority of their careers at what can be considered the pass-rushing positions, 3-4 OLB and 4-3 DE. Low and behold, these 3 LBs - Merriman, Ware, and Ellis - just happen to have had 3 of the top 4 highest sack-per-game ratios of the entire bunch. The lone exception: Boulware, who played 4-3 OLB on (arguably) the greatest defense in NFL history. So the moral of the story here is that the only 1^st-round LBs who might actually provide that "much-needed" pass rush that Lawson is supposed to have provided are those that play 3-4 OLB and draft picks named Peter Boulware.

For a comparison, let's look at what the average sack season for each of the various positions has been for these 1^st-round LBs:

Position	Yrs	G	Sack	Sack/G	Sack/Yr
4-3 OLB	117	1663	315.0	0.186	2.69
4-3 ILB	63	886	148.5	0.175	2.36
4-3 DE	10	154	56.0	0.367	5.60
3-4 OLB	19	270	151.0	0.545	7.95
3-4 ILB	24	345	42.5	0.115	1.77
3-4 DE	1	16	8.0	0.500	8.00
Total	234	3334	721.0	0.214	3.08

Well, look at that! Seasons from 3-4 OLBs have produced over three times as many sacks as those from LBs in a 4-3. Similarly, seasons from 4-3 DEs have produced twice as many. Not to mention that, interestingly enough, if you take the average season for Lawson's position, 4-3 OLB, and double it to reflect 2 seasons' worth of sacks, you get a value (5.38) that is almost exactly Lawson's 2-year total of 5.5.

OK, so I've pretty much shown here that you can't compare the sack production of 1^st-round LBs without taking into consideration the position at and defense on which they play. By failing to do just this, FO compared apples to oranges when citing Lawson's 2-year sack production as an indicator of his bust status.

With this in mind, let's answer my other 3 questions. To do so, we'll need a table that compares each LBs sack production in his first 2 years to that of his subsequent years. Here's such a table:

	First 2 Years			Rest of Career
Player	Position	Sack	Sack Max	Position	Sack	Sack Max
Powell	--	0.0	0.0	--	0.0	0.0
Simmons, B.	3-4 ILB	6.0	3.0	4-3 OLB/4-3 ILB	18.0	6.5
Spikes	3-4 ILB	5.0	3.0	4-3 OLB	18.5	6.0
Merriman	3-4 OLB	27.0	17.0	3-4 OLB	12.5	12.5
Ware	3-4 OLB	19.5	11.5	3-4 OLB	34.0	20.0
Wilson, R.	3-4 OLB	9.0	6.0	4-3 DE	15.0	9.0
Farrior	3-4 OLB	1.5	1.5	3-4 ILB	23.0	6.5
Ellis	4-3 DE	10.5	7.5	4-3 DE	66.5	12.5
Urlacher	4-3 ILB	14.0	8.0	4-3 ILB	23.5	6.0
Wilson, A.	4-3 ILB	6.0	5.0	4-3 ILB	15.5	5.0
Barnett	4-3 ILB	5.0	3.0	4-3 ILB	6.5	3.5
Vilma	4-3 ILB	2.5	2.0	3-4 ILB	1.0	1.0
Harris	4-3 ILB	2.5	2.0	4-3 ILB	6.0	2.5
Morris	4-3 ILB	1.0	1.0	4-3 ILB	6.0	3.0
Bulluck	4-3 ILB	1.0	1.0	4-3 OLB	17.0	5.0
Simmons, A.	4-3 ILB	0.0	0.0	4-3 OLB	10.0	4.0
Boulware	4-3 OLB	20.0	11.5	4-3 OLB	49.5	15.0
Pollack	4-3 OLB	4.5	4.5	--	0.0	0.0
Hardy	4-3 OLB	8.0	5.5	4-3 OLB	28.0	10.5
Peterson, J.	4-3 OLB	7.0	4.0	4-3 OLB	39.0	10.0
Rudd	4-3 OLB	7.0	5.0	4-3 OLB	4.5	3.0
Johnson, D.	4-3 OLB	6.5	4.5	4-3 OLB	5.5	4.0
Mobley	4-3 OLB	5.5	4.0	4-3 OLB	5.0	2.0
Arrington	4-3 OLB	4.5	4.0	4-3 OLB	19.0	11.0
Davis, T.	4-3 OLB	3.0	1.5	4-3 OLB	6.5	3.5
Brown, Reg.	4-3 OLB	2.5	2.5	--	0.0	0.0
Fields	4-3 OLB	3.0	2.0	4-3 OLB	31.5	8.0
Brooking	4-3 OLB	2.0	2.0	4-3 ILB	15.0	3.5
Williams, D.J.	4-3 OLB	2.0	2.0	4-3 OLB	4.5	2.5
Brooks	4-3 OLB	1.0	1.0	4-3 OLB	12.5	3.0
Morgan	4-3 OLB/4-3 ILB	2.0	1.0	4-3 ILB	5.0	3.0
Thomas, R.	4-3 OLB/4-3 ILB	2.0	2.0	4-3 OLB	0.0	0.0
Lewis	4-3/3-4 ILB	6.5	4.0	4-3 ILB	27.0	5.0
Katzenmoyer	4-3/3-4 ILB	3.5	3.5	--	0.0	0.0
Total		191.5			535.0

Now, let's answer Question 1: How many LBs drafted in the first round have produced 6+ total sacks in their first 2 years? As you can see from the left side of the table, only 13 of the 34 1^st-round LBs since 1995 have produced 6+ sacks in their first 2 years. Here's what that means: Simply by being drafted in the 1^st round, the odds were already 3-to-2 against Lawson having 6+ sacks in his first 2 years. The odds for Lawson got even longer when he was slotted in at 4-3 OLB, a position from which only 5 of 14 1^st-round LBs reached the 6+ sack threshold during their first 2 years.

Here's Question 2 again: How many LBs drafted in the first round have produced a 10+ sack season after their first 2 years? Looking at the right side of the table this time, you see that only 7 of the 34 fit the bill. Here's what this means: Regardless of how many sacks he had in his first 2 years, the odds are 4-to-1 against Lawson having a 10+ sack season during the remainder of his career. Not to mention that 3 of the Super-7 had already recorded a season with double-digit sacks during their first 2 years.

Let's take this one step further by answering Question 3: How many of the LBs drafted in the 1^st round whom produced 6+ total sacks in their first 2 years actually went on to have a 10+ sack season later in their career? As we've already learned, 13 of the 34 1^st-round LBs had 6+ sacks in their first 2 years. Comparing the two sides of the table, we now learn that 9 of those 13 actually didn't have a 10+ sack season later in their careers. Here's what that means: Even if Lawson had the required 6+ sacks in his first 2 years, the odds would still be 2-to-1 against him parlaying that success into a 10+ sack season later in his career.

So I think I've made my point here. The whole idea that Lawson is somehow doomed to mediocrity by virtue of the fact that he's had only 5.5 sacks in his first 32 games totally ignores the fact that (a) most 1^st-round LBs don't have 6+ sacks during their first 2 years, (b) most 1^st-round LBs don't ever have a 10+ sack season, and (c) most 1^st-round LBs who have 6+ sacks during their first 2 years don't go on to have a 10+ sack season later in their careers. And finally, all of this is complicated further by the fact that Lawson was miscast at 4-3 OLB his first 2 years, which, unlike 3-4 OLB and 4-3 DE, is not a position where the proverbial sack artists are likely to play.

Just a couple of more apples-and-oranges-related things before I'm done with Part 1...

If you look back at the first table, you'll see that only 28 of the 252 total seasons played by 1^st-round LBs have been short-circuited due to injury. Not shown in the table is that only 5 of the 34 1^st-round LBs lost one of their first 2 years due to injury.
In the last table, I've displayed in bold the instances in which a player switched from one primary position to another after their first 2 years. As you can see, there have been no instances in which a 1^st-round LB switched from primarily playing 4-3 OLB during his first 2 years to playing 3-4 OLB for the rest of his career.

So if we map this all out. Manny Lawson's specific situation heading into 2009 is represented by the following:

He was drafted in the 1^st round.
He lost a season due to injury during his first 2 years.
He had fewer than 6 sacks while playing 4-3 OLB during his first 2 years.
He switched to 3-4 OLB for the last 5 games of 2008, and will remain there in 2009.

Simply put, no LB that was drafted in the 1^st round from 1995 to 2005 has encountered the same set of circumstances as Lawson's. Therefore, it's totally invalid to compare him to the rest of this LB group. In fact, there appears to be no valid comparison whatsoever.

Does all this mean I think Manny Lawson is going to blossom into the sack artist we all hope him to be? No. If anything, by virtue of Lawson playing a more sack-friendly position, I'd anticipate his sack total increasing substantially this year, perhaps up into the high single-digit range.

What this article does mean, however, is that, although FO may ultimately be correct in their prediction for Lawson, the statistical comparison they cited to prove their point was akin to saying that Kentwan Balmer will never have a 100+ tackle season. It totally ignores the expectations of the position being played -- which really surprises me because one of the things I think is great about FO is that they go to unprecedented lengths (e.g., game charting, football consultants, scouts on the payroll, etc.) to incorporate the actual physical, strategic, and tactical aspects of football into their statistics.

Stay tuned for Part 2...

Poll

Will Manny Lawson ever have a season with 10 or more sacks during his career?

YES

242 votes

NO

148 votes

390 votes | Poll has closed

Daily Slop:Mike Florio makes up more Redskins lies, Lavar's restaurant bankrupt, Zorn Guarantees Cooley 7 TDs

KevinE — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:01:31 -0000

After falsely starting rumors Laron Landry wanted to be traded, now Mike Florio from PFT says Dan Snyder is going after Brett Favre. [junkies]
(Enough is enough with Florio...I hope you're happy with your purchase NBC)

Lavar Arrington's Sideline Bar & Grill just filed Chapter 11 [gazette]

Chris Cooley's camp a success, sets the bar for this season [Fairfax Conn]

Cooley even admitted that Redskins coach Jim Zorn guaranteed him seven touchdowns this season during a recent practice.

Lorenzo Alexander gives back. Starts foundation in Oakland community [CCT]

"I feel it's only right, being blessed to be able to play in the NFL, to give back to these kids. I know in Oakland there are a lot of kids that don't have a good foundation or have someone they can look up to. I'm just trying to allow people to see that you can be successful coming out of Oakland."

Fred Smoot not wanted by the PBA [Skins Blog]
(I'm looking very forward to Fred's response on this)

Redskins Insider breaks down the Pro and Cons of Brandon Marshall [Insider]
I stopped reading when I got to the Con: "Marshall faces a trial this summer"

Tickets now available for the Redskins Welcome Home Luncheon, Aug. 26th [Redskins.com]

Dallas Cowboys roster starting to gel. Roy Williams' (S) replacement impressing [nfl.com]

Buccaneers might start QB Josh Freeman [nfl.com]

Terrell Owens BLASTS his real estate agent on Twitter [Yahoo]
(I agree with him on this one)

And doing my normal routine for the Slop, I noticed Google had a pretty substantial FAIL today: