SB Nation - R.W. McQuarters

Will the Pioli/Parcells/Haley Connection Bring Any Remaining Free Agents to the Chiefs?

Joel Thorman — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:37:19 -0000

Note: Primetime did the leg work on the tables and I did the writing. -Chris

If you're been reading Arrowhead Pride for a little while now, you know that Scott Pioli and Todd Haley are big on bringing in coaches and players that they've worked with before. Which makes perfect sense. It's a natural human instinct to take the known over the unknown.

It's gotten to the point where as soon as we hear of a new player the Chiefs have signed or are interested in, we look for the Pioli/Parcells/Haley connection and it's inevitably there.

Why look for a Bill Parcells connection in addition to a Pioli/Haley connection?

Well because the legendary coach has had some big time influence on the Chiefs current GM and head coach.

Todd Haley began his career as the New York Jets' wide receivers coach under Parcells in 1997. Haley also coached under Parcells from 2004 to 2005 as the wide receivers coach for the Dallas Cowboys, while Parcells was the head coach.

Todd is the son of Dick Haley, who is the current Player Personnel Analyst for the Miami Dolphins and former Director of Player Personnel for the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets. Haley, his father Dick and Parcells all worked together in New York from 1997 to 1999. Haley was the Jets wide receiver coach; Parcells was the head coach; and Dick Haley as the Personnel Director.

Haley and Scott Pioli worked together from 1997 to 2000, when Pioli was the Director of Pro Personnel for the New York Jets.

As far as Parcells and Pioli go, both worked together in New York for the Jets in the late 1990s while Parcells was the head coach there. Oh, and Scott Pioli also married Bill Parcells' daughter. They're probably pretty tight.

So it's one big happy family over there at One Arrowhead Drive nowadays.

Every single coach hired by the new Kansas City Chiefs' brass has had some sort of Scott Piloli/Todd Haley/Bill Parcells connection.

Special teams coach Steve Hoffman (Parcells)
WR coach Dedric Ward (Haley, Parcells and Pioli)
Defensive quality control coach Pat Perles (Haley)
Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast (Haley)
Offensive line coach Bill Muir (Pioli and Haley)
LB coach Gary Gibbs (Parcells and Haley)
Joel Collier (Pioli)

It's the same thing with the free agents the Chiefs have signed this off season:

LB Monty Beisel - Played for Arizona in 2008 under Chiefs' DC Clancy Pendergast
QB Matt Cassel - Former New England Patriot under Pioli
WR Terrance Copper - Signed to the Cowboys by Bill Parcells when Todd Haley was working with the wide receivers
CB Travis Daniels - Former Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel, who coached under Belichick and Pioli in New England, traded for him prior to the 2008 campaign
WR Bobby Engram -Played for the Bears when Todd Haley worked with wide receivers
LB Darrell Robertson - New England practice squad in 2008 and a former Georgia Tech player under Chan Gailey
TE Sean Ryan - Played last year in Miami for Bill Parcells and for Haley and Parcells in Dallas from 2004 to 2005
TE Tony Curtis - Played for Haley and Parcells in Dallas from 2005 to 2006

Is that enough evidence that these guys prefer working with people they've worked with before?

It makes sense to take a look at who the top remaining free agents and see where the Pioli/Haley/Parcells connection is. It's likely that any future free agent signings will come from this group.

The top offensive and defensive free agents connected to Pioli, Haley and Parcells are after the jump.

Offense
Name	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Age	Pioli	Haley	Parcells
Rex Grossman	QB	6'1"	222	28		CHI 03-04
Lorenzo Neal	FB	5'11"	255	39		NYJ 97	NYJ 97
Marty Booker	WR	6'0"	212	32		CHI 01-03
Kelley Washington	WR	6'3"	218	29	NE 07-08
Jerame Tuman	TE	6'4"	255	33		AZ 08
Brandon Gorin	RT	6'6"	308	30	NE 03-05
Rob Petitti	RT	6'6"	347	26		DAL 05	DAL 05
Terrence Metcalf	G-T	6'3"	325	31		CHI 02-04
Evan Mathis	G	6'5"	304	27			MIA 08
Grey Ruegamer	G-C	6'4"	310	32	NE 00-02
Matt Lehr	G-C	6'3"	300	30			DAL 03-04
Edgerrin James	RB	6'0"	219	30		AZ 07-08

Back on Monday, I asked you what was the biggest positional need for the Chiefs after the draft. You responded by saying that wide receiver, offensive tackle and outside linebacker were the Chiefs' biggest needs.

WR Marty Booker has already had a workout with the Chiefs and left without a contract offer (We assume).

Former 3rd round pick Kelley Washington is an option too I guess, although I'm not sure what he would bring to the table considering his poor career numbers.

At best, I think any of the offensive line free agents out there would be back ups to our current crop of linemen.

The defensive free agents are pretty slim pickings as well. Check them out.

Defense
Name	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Age	Pioli	Haley	Parcells
La'Roi Glover	DT-NT	6'2"	285	34		DAL 05	DAL 03-05
Chris Cooper	DT-DE	6'5"	275	31		AZ 07	DAL 04
Vonnie Holliday	DT-DE	6'5"	290	33			MIA 08
Rosevelt Colvin	DE-LB	6'3"	250	31	NE 03-08	CHI 01-02
Ebenezer Ekuban	DE	6'3"	265	32			DAL 03
Derek Smith	ILB	6'2"	245	34			MIA 08
Junior Seau	ILB	6'3"	250	40	NE 06-08
Willie McGinest	OLB-DE	6'5"	270	37	NE 00-05
Mike Brown	S	5'10"	210	31		CHI 01-04
Rodney Harrison	S	6'1"	220	36	NE 03-08
Lawyer Milloy	S	6'0"	210	34	NE 00-03
Roy Williams	S	6'0"	235	28		DAL 05-06	DAL 03-06
Keith Davis	S	5'10"	193	30		DAL 05-06	DAL 03-06
Terrence Holt	S	6'2"	208	29		AZ 07
Cameron Worrell	S	5'11"	199	29		CHI 03-04
Mike Green	S	6'0"	195	32		CHI 01-04
Deltha O'Neal	CB	5'11"	194	32	NE 08
Jason Webster	CB	5'9"	187	31	NE 08
R.W. McQuarters	CB	5'10"	198	32		CHI 01-04
Lewis Sanders	CB	6'1"	190	29	NE 08
Aaron Glenn	CB	5'9"	185	36		NYJ 95-00, DAL 05-06	NYJ 97-99, DAL 05-06
Roderick Hood	DB	5'11"	198	27		AZ 07-08
Travis LaBoy	DE	6'3"	250	27		AZ 08

Considering that the top remaining linebackers are all over 34-years old and that the Chiefs have already signed two veteran LBs, I don't see the Chiefs signing Junior Seau, Willie McGinest or Derek Smith. McGinest could theoretically fill at defensive end in addition to linebacker but his age prohibits most investments in him.

S Keith Davis left KC without a contract offer after a private visit to KC back in March.

DE Travis LaBoy, like Primetime wrote this morning, really does seem to be the most viable option for the Chiefs on this list, although I'm not sure what the odds of him coming to KC truly are.

Last year, we would have crossed off any one on this list that was over the age of 27 but that's no longer the case. Now, with the draft over and compensation for many of these players at a minimum, we could be looking at more signings.

Would you like to see any of these free agents signed by the Kansas City Chiefs?

Poll

How many of these free agents will the Chiefs sign?

0

52 votes

1

108 votes

2

212 votes

3

154 votes

4

71 votes

5+

86 votes

683 votes | Poll has closed

The No. 28 Overall Pick: Player and Financial Histories

MattRichWarren — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:00:13 -0000

About a month ago I took a look at the last 25 No. 11 overall picks in the NFL Draft. Now the Bills hold the No. 28 overall pick as well, so I went back and looked at the history of our new selection. As you would expect, the results are not as appealing as the eleventh overall. The picks marked with an asterisk were made in the second round, but still at 28 overall.

No. 28 Picks, 1984-2008
2008 - Lawrence Jackson, DE, Seahawks
2007 - Joe Staley, OT, 49ers
2006 - Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars
2005 - Luis Castillo, DE, Chargers
2004 - Chris Gamble, DB, Panthers
2003 - Andre Woolfolk, DB, Titans
2002 - Jerramy Stevens, TE, Seahawks
2001 - Derrick Gibson, DB, Raiders
2000 - Rob Morris, LB, Colts
1999 - Andy Katzenmoyer, LB, Patriots
1998 - R.W. McQuarters, DB, 49ers
1997 - Trevor Pryce, DT, Broncos
1996 - Jerome Woods, DB, Chiefs
1995 - Derrick Brooks, LB, Buccaneers
1994 - William Floyd, FB, 49ers
1993 - Thomas Smith, DB, Bills
1992 - Darryl Williams, DB, Bengals
1991* - Mike Dumas, DB, Oilers
1990* - Reggie Rembert, WR, Jets
1989 - Keith DeLong, LB, 49ers
1988* - Marcus Cotton, LB, Falcons
1987 - Mark Ingram, WR, Giants
1986* - Jackie Walker, LB, Buccaneers
1985 - Trevor Matich, C, Patriots
1984 - Brian Blados, OT, Bengals

There are some outstanding players on this list. We can measure how many outstanding players there are by looking at individual honors like Pro Bowl appearances, All-Pro Team selections, and Hall of Fame enshrinement.

Pro Bowl
Every year the Pro Bowl takes the best players from each conference and plays them against one another. Between 40 and 50 players are considered Pro Bowl players in a given year from each conference for a grand total of 80-100 players. Here's the No. 28 overall picks from our list that have been selected to the Pro Bowl:

Trevor Pryce ('99-'02)
Jerome Woods ('03)
Derrick Brooks ('97-'06, '08)
Darryl Williams ('97)

All-Pros
At the conclusion of every season, 50 sports writers and broadcasters who cover the NFL select the All-Pro Team. This is a much more exclusive honor than the Pro Bowl, however; 27 spots existed on the team in 2008. Here are the All-Pro No. 28 overall picks.

Trevor Pryce ('99)
Derrick Brooks ('99, '00, '02, '04, '05)

Hall of Famers
The Hall of Fame is the greatest individual honor an NFL player may receive. It takes into account your entire body of work throughout your career. Of the thousands of NFL players and contributors in the league's rich history, only 247 people are currently in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. While Derrick Brooks is a probable Hall of Fame player, he is still active and can't be considered. No one else on the list has come close.

Picks 11 and 28
Ironically, in 2007 the Niners had the same two picks - 11 and 28 overall - and got Patrick WIllis and Joe Staley. Willis has been to the Pro Bowl twice and named to the All Pro team once. Staley has started all 32 games of his career at tackle for the team.

Potential Salary
While looking at the eleventh overall selection, I also broke down about how much this year's pick will be paid. The No. 28 overall selection will obviously be making less that the eleventh, but how much less? Here are the last three contracts for players taken No. 28 overall:

DE Lawrence Jackson (2008): 5 years, $11.25M, $6.1M signing bonus
OT Joe Staley (2007): 5 years, $8M, $5.6M guaranteed, $1.1M signing bonus, $3M in bonuses
TE Marcedes Lewis (2006): 5 years, $7.5M, $4.8M guaranteed

The only reason I can see for Jackson's contract being so much higher than Staley's is the guaranteed money. Staley's deal has most of the contract guaranteed, where Jackson has no guaranteed money but rather a $6.1M signing bonus.

If the Bills go the guaranteed money route, they will likely sign the player for somewhere in the range of 5 years, $9M, $6.5M guaranteed. If they go signing bonus route like the Seahawks, expect the salary figure to be higher, in the range of 5 years, $12M, with a $6.5M signing bonus (almost the exact contract that last year's No. 27 overall pick, San Diego CB Antoine Cason, signed).

The Art (and Science) of Drafting: IIa. The Policy Regime (1994-1998)

Florida Danny — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 22:00:12 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Apologize in advance, but the team and player page tags aren't working for me right now for some reason. I'll attempt to link them shortly.

On Wednesday, in Part 1 of my review of 49er draft history, I broke down their picks since 1994 by round, position, and conference. Just to refresh everyone's memory, here's the overall Niner draft strategy I came up with based on my breakdown:

When we're good, let's trade away picks. When we're bad, let's acquire more picks.
Trade up into the 1^st round using 2^nd-round picks. Trade down into the 6^th and 7^th rounds using 5^th-round picks.
Take players from BCS conferences.
Dominate the neighborhood (i.e., take Pac-10 players).
Wait until Day 2 to draft QBs, RBs, and WRs.
Grab TEs, LBs, and DBs in the late rounds for depth and special teams.
Don't pull an Al Davis (i.e., Ks and Ps are not draft-worthy).

As I mentioned at the end of Part 1, this overall strategy actually represents a conglomeration of strategies for 4 different 49er GMs (and coach-GM duos):

Carmen Policy, who ran the draft from 1994-1998
Bill Walsh, who ran the draft from 1999-2001
Terry Donahue, who ran the draft from 2002-2004
Scot McLoughan and Mike Nolan (aka McNolan), who ran the draft from 2005-2008

Of particular interest, above and beyond the Niners' overall draft strategy, are the individual strategies (and results) for each regime. There are a few reasons why knowing the regime info is important. First, it allows us to compare the 4 regimes both in terms of the strategies themselves, as well as their effectiveness at drafting starters and Pro Bowlers. I'm sure the conventional wisdom out there among 49er fans, for example, is that Walsh and Policy were more successful than Donahue and McNolan. So 2 potential questions that arise out of a knowledge of regime results are, "Is this conventional wisdom true?" and, "If so, are differences in draft strategy an explanation for why it's true?"

The second reason why it's important to know the regime strategies is related to the first. Namely, we can compare 49er regimes with those of other teams. I'll be doing just that in Part 4 of this piece. Finally, it's important to know the regime strategy for McNolan in particular because it gives us a rough blueprint for what to expect in this year's draft.

I know I said in Part 1 that I was going to tackle all 4 regimes in today's post, but I soon realized that such a post would be the longest in the history of blogging. Therefore, I've decided to change up the schedule a little bit. Rather than detailing all 4 regimes in one post, I'm going to break Part 2 into 4 subsections (2a-2d), one for each regime. So here's the revised schedule:

4/10/09 - Policy regime drafts (1994-1998)
4/11/09 - Walsh regime drafts (1999-2001)
4/13/09 - Donahue regime drafts (2002-2004)
4/14/09 - McNolan regime drafts (2005-2008) and comparisons
4/15/09 - Comparison of SF and NE team draft strategies
4/17/09 - Comparison of SF and NE regime draft strategies

Before I begin with the regime breakdowns, a couple of "buyer beware" caveats are necessary that will apply to each of the 4 posts. First, because we're talking about 118 picks spread out over 4 regimes, the sample sizes are pretty small for each specific regime. So I'll be trying as hard as possible to focus only on strategies and strategy differences that are extremely glaring. Second, because we're talking about a 15-year time span here, I'm going to be vigilant about keeping each regime's picks in the context of where the Niners were as a team when the picks were made. For instance, the team had increasingly deteriorating DEF stats at the end of the 1990's, so it's no wonder that Walsh took DEF player after DEF player from 1999-2001. The strategy means nothing without the context, and, in fact, this phenomenon illustrates an additional aspect of draft strategy in and of itself, i.e., whether or not each team (or regime) drafted according to needs.

After the jump, I'll put the Policy drafts in context; break the results down by position, draft day, and conference; and provide the idiot's guide to Policy draft strategy...

Here again is the link to my Excel spreadsheet of 49er draft picks in the Salary Cap Era, which can serve as both a permanent reference on Niners Nation and a resource for your own investigations into 49er draft picks:

49er Draft Picks 1994-2008

If you haven't taken a look at it yet, here's what's in it for those who are interested:

List of 49er picks and pick details (year, round, pick, position, height, weight, school, conference, BCS?, starter?, and Pro Bowler?) from 1994-2008
List of 49er picks and pick details from 1994-1998 (Policy drafts)
List of 49er picks and pick details from 1999-2001 (Walsh drafts)
ist of 49er picks and pick details from 2002-2004 (Donahue drafts)
List of 49er picks and pick details from 2005-2008 (McNolan drafts)
Number of picks in each overall and regime total broken down by round, position, and conference
Percentage of picks in each overall and regime row total (with breakdowns)
Percentage of picks in each overall and regime column total (with breakdowns)
Percentage of picks in each overall and regime total (with breakdowns)

OK, on with the show...

IN CONTEXT

First, the context...and what a context it was! From 1994-1998, the 49ers won just over 12 games per season, made the playoffs all 5 years, and won Super Bowl XXIX. Obviously, that success was built over the course of several drafts that preceded 1994, but Carmen Policy was nevertheless the primary architect beginning in 1991 (with the help of Vinny Cerrato).

So what possible needs could there have been for the 49ers during these halcyon days? More than you think:

1994 Draft - Key Losses: FB Tom Rathman (free agency), DL Ted Washington (trade), DL Kevin Fagan (retirement), and LB Mike Walter (retirement). Weak 1993 Stats: 23^rd in rushing TDs allowed, K had 61.5% accuracy rate. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found a worthy replacement for LB Charles Haley; still couldn't stop the Cowboys' running game. Needs: FB, DL, LB, K.

1995 Draft - Key Losses: RB Ricky Watters (free agency) and DB Dieon Sanders (free agency). Weak 1994Stats: None. Lingering Issues: Except for William Floyd and Derrick Deese, entire starting OFF was 30 or older. Needs: RB, DB, OFF depth.

1996 Draft - Key Losses: WR John Taylor (retirement), OL Bart Oates (retirement), DL Rickey Jackson (retirement), and DB Eric Davis (free agency). Weak 1995 Stats: 23^rd in ST DVOA¹. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found a worthy replacement for Watters; had major injuries to Floyd and Deese; old-timers QB Steve Young, OL Steve Wallace, and OL Harris Barton missed 13 total games due to minor injuries. Needs: RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, ST, FB depth.

1997 Draft - Key Losses: Wallace (retirement), Barton (retirement), and K Jeff Wilkins (free agency). Weak 1996 Stats: None. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found a worthy replacement for Watters or Sanders; old-timers Young, TE Brent Jones, and LB Gary Plummer missed 15 total games due to minor injuries. Needs: RB, OL, DB, K, OFF depth, LB depth.

1998 Draft - Key Losses: Floyd (free agency), Jones (retirement), OL Jesse Sapolu (retirement, DL Dana Stubblefield (free agency), Plummer (retirement), and DB Rod Woodson (free agency). Weak 1997 Stats: OFF DVOA dropped to 13^th. Lingering Issues: had major injuries to DB Marquez Pope and old-timer WR Jerry Rice. Needs: FB, TE, LB, DB, OL, DL, LB, DB, WR depth.

For the most part, a vast majority of the needs were on offense, and overall, their needs had to do with youth and depth. However, rather than through the draft, the 49ers addressed most of these needs via free agency. Specifically, Jackson was signed to replace Fagan, RB Garrison Hearst was signed to replace Watters, Pope (feebly) and Woodson (fleetingly) were signed to replace Sanders, DL Chris Doleman was signed to replace Jackson, DB Darnell Walker was signed to replace Davis, K Gary Anderson was signed to replace Wilkins, OL Kevin Gogan was signed to replace Sapolu (after permanently moving OL Chris Dalman to C), and LB Winfred Tubbs was signed to replace Plummer. The point here is that the Niners' issues from 1994-1998 had more to do with age than performance, and yet they chose to address those issues by signing high-performing free agents. In NFL Dynasties 101, the Policy regime must have skipped over Chapter 10 of the required textbook, which is entitled, "Free Agency: A Faustian Bargain."

SECOND FIDDLE

From 1994-1998, the 49ers made 29 selections in the NFL draft, which works out to about 6 picks per season. Given that their overall rate has been about 8 picks per season over the past 15 years, you can already tell that the Policy regime was to blame when it came to trading away picks. As I just said, part of the reason for this had to do with the fact that they chose to address most of their needs during free agency. Another likely reason for the "fold ‘em" draft strategy - and this is obviously just speculation - is that the Policy regime saw the gaudy stats and continued playoff success during his tenure, and figured the best strategy in that context was to draft for immediate help - rather than depth or potential - by trading up for the blue chippers. Indeed, the Niners only had 4 picks in 1995, and no 1^st-round pick in 1996 because they sold the farm to take WR J.J. Stokes. Similarly, they only had 3 picks in 1997 because they traded their 5^th-, 6^th-, and 7^th-round picks to take - wait for it - FB Mark Edwards and TE Greg Clark.

So reframing the argument I made in Part 1, if we define "drafting for now" as getting younger and deeper at key positions, then the Niners did not "draft for now" when they were good during the Policy regime years; they also didn't "draft for the future" given the plethora of picks they traded away. Rather, it's more that they simply decided to basically not draft at all. That is, the draft played second fiddle to free agency.

ASSUME THE POSITION

So what did the 49ers do with the 29 picks they actually held onto from 1994-1998? Overall, the Policy regime took 16 OFF players, 12 DEF players, and 1 ST player. In terms of positions, they took 5 WRs, 5 LBs, 4 OLs, 4 DLs, 3 FBs, 3 DBs, 2 TEs, 1 QB, 1 RB, and 1 K. Relating these numbers back to team needs, they drafted Floyd to replace Rathman, DT Bryant Young to replace Washington, LB Lee Woodall to replace Haley, K Doug Brien to replace K Mike Cofer, WR Terrell Owens to replace Taylor, and DB R.W. McQuarters to replace Woodson.

Although this certainly indicates that they did address some positional needs in the draft, it's more interesting to notice (a) what positions they didn't address, and (b) the timing of their positional need picks. Specifically, Policy's 49ers drafted only 1 RB despite the obvious negative implications of losing Watters. Some people (like me) think that Watters' departure was the beginning of the end of the on-the-field dynasty, so its' mindboggling that the Policy regime chose to muddle through 1995-1997 with RBs Derek Loville and Terry Kirby. And the RB that the Policy regime did pick? That would be Stephen Pitts in the 6^th round; definitely a household name. Similarly, despite losing 4 Pro Bowl OLs during his tenure (not to mention the increase in Steve Young's injury proneness), the Policy regime only took 4 OLs in 5 drafts. He also took only 3 DBs despite losing both starting CBs and much of the secondary depth beginning in 1995. Indeed, some analysts were shocked (shocked!) that the Niners chose to trade away their 1997 picks for a QB, FB, and TE; rather than addressing their glaring, perennial needs at OL and DB.

Now, the second interesting piece of the positional need puzzle: timing. During the same time that the Policy regime basically ignored RB, OL, and DB - the Niners' 3 biggest needs - he sure did choose an inordinate number of WRs and LBs. Think about that for a second. The 49ers had the G.O.A.T., and they chose WR as the position on which to focus most of their draft picks. Granted, Taylor was getting old, so drafting to replace their #2 WR was reasonable. However, trading most of your draft to move up in the 1^st round is something you do to replace your #1 WR, not your #2. Now think about LB. They had - arguably - the best LB corps in the NFL from 1994-1997, yet they chose to focus most of their draft picks on that position.

You might be thinking to yourself, "but you said before that they were supposed to be using the draft for depth (and youth)!" You're right, but only if you ignore the context. My point here is that, when your major positional needs are RB, OL, and DB for 5 years running, and you have only 29 picks to work with, you don't go focusing your youth and depth solutions at WR and LB. Sure, hindsight is 20/20; and I know it's easy to look back and say Stokes, WR Corey Fleming, WR Iheanyi Uwaezouke, WR Ryan Thelwell, LB Kevin Mitchell, LB Anthony Peterson, LB Antonio Armstrong, and LB Sam Manuel were wasted picks given their performance (or lack thereof). But, to me, their (poor) performance is only relevant in the context of draft strategy: they shouldn't have been taking so many WRs and LBs in the first place, so missing on most of them only served to exacerbate their lack of attention to RB, OL, and DB. I mean, if after losing Watters, Sanders, Davis, and all those OLs, they would have drafted repeatedly for these positions, would we have b*tched as much if they didn't hit? I don't think so because at least they were giving it the ol' college try (pun intended). Alternatively, might they have hit more at these need positions if they took more bites at the apple? Probably, given their relative success overall (which I detail in the next paragraph). Instead, as fans, we were faced with a double dose of dynasty destruction: drafting busts at the "want" positions and ignoring the "need" positions. The Policy regime's drafts leave a sour taste because, in essence, he was fiddling while Rome burned.

Looking back, this lack of attention to need positions in the draft really is a shame because it's not like Policy and company were bad talent evaluators. To the contrary, 41.4% of their 29 picks became regular starters for the Niners, and 20.7% made the Pro Bowl as a Niner. Breaking these down by position, they drafted 3 starters at FB, 2 at WR and DB, and 1 each at TE, OL, DL, LB, and K. In terms of Pro Bowlers, they drafted 1 each at FB, WR, OL, DL, LB, and DB. Given the overall stats I presented in Part 1 (42.4% and 9.3%, respectively), Policy's regime was by far the best of the 4 when it came to drafting Pro Bowlers; they drafted more than the other 3 regimes combined (5). Of course, as I'm sure you realize, Pro Bowlers tend to come from winning teams; so maybe that's why the Policy regime "found" more of them. You know, it's a kind of chicken-and-egg thing. And just in case you didn't notice, that was 3 starters (30.0%) and 2 Pro Bowlers (20.0%) among the 10 total picks the Policy regime made at RB, OL, and DB. Although the lone DB Pro Bowler actually played S (Lance Schulters), that's still a good Pro Bowl rate; even more evidence in favor of my "bites at the apple" argument that more picks at these positions might have led to more need-based draft success.

Of their 5 drafts, the Policy regime's most impressive was their 1994 effort, which produced 4 players (Young, Floyd, Brien, and Woodall) who started as rookies for the Super Bowl XXIX squad, and 2 49er Pro Bowlers (Young and Woodall). Not far behind was the 1998 draft, which produced 3 starters (OL Jeremy Newberry, Shulters, and FB Fred Beasley), all of whom made the Pro Bowl as a Niner.

One last thing I'll say about positional needs, and how they were addressed. In case you were wondering, here are the Policy regime's positional picks by draft day:

Pos	Day 1	Day 2	Total
QB	1	0	1
RB	0	1	1
FB	2	1	3
WR	3	2	5
TE	1	1	2
OL	2	2	4
DL	2	2	4
LB	1	4	5
DB	2	1	3
K	1	0	1
P	0	0	0
Total	15	14	29

As you can see, they actually ended up with nearly an even split of picks between Day 1 and Day 2 despite trading away so many. That's because trading away Day 2 of the 1997 draft balanced out the effect of trading away Day 1 in 1995. In addition, the only position in which there seemed to be any draft day preference whatsoever was at LB (Day 2), which I suppose softens the blow of picking too many LBs. However, lack of attention to positional needs on Day 1 (0 RBs, 2 OLs, and 2 DBs) re-hardens the blow (that's what she said; sorry, had to).

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

The Policy regime mostly took WRs and LBs despite having more pressing needs at RB, OL, and DB.
The Policy regime traded away a lot of picks to move up in the draft for positions they didn't need.
The Policy regime had a Pro Bowl rate that was over twice the 49er average from 1994-2008, and the rate at need positions suggests more attention should have been focused on them.
Except for taking more LBs on Day 2, the Policy regime spread their positional picks out evenly between draft days. In other words, there was no Day 1 focus on glaring positional needs.

CONFERENCE ROOM

As was the case with the overall total from 1994-2008, the highest percentage of Policy regime draft picks came from the Pac-10 (6). Among the other conferences represented, there were 4 Big 12 picks, 3 Big 10 picks, 3 Big East picks, 3 Notre Dame picks, 2 Big West picks, 2 SEC picks, 1 ACC pick, 1 Atlantic 10 pick, 1 MSFA pick, 1 PSAC pick, 1 Southern pick, and 1 WAC pick. What stands out here is their affinity for picking players from schools that are close to home. Over half of the picks (65.5%) came from conferences that mostly play in or west of the Central time zone, which isn't so coincidental given the Niners' location, and that of Eddie Debartolo's home (Youngstown, OH) and alma mater (Notre Dame). Also, it didn't hurt that Policy himself was born, and got his undergraduate degree, in OH.

If we break it down according to the BCS, we find that 75.9% of the Policy regime's picks came from BCS schools. Going back to the 49ers' overall BCS rate from 1994-2008 (79.7%), it seems that the Policy regime was par for the course when it came to drafting big-school talent. What's interesting about this, though, is how good the Policy regime was at finding small-school diamonds in the rough: Woodall (PSAC; Division II), Owens (Southern; Division IAA), and Schulters (Atlantic 10; Division IAA) all made the Pro Bowl as a 49er after being drafted from non-Division-IA - let alone non-BCS - schools. Indeed, although their BCS and non-BCS starter rates (40.9% and 42.9%, respectively) were as expected from Part 1, the Policy regime's Pro Bowl rate for non-BCS picks was 42.9%, which dwarfs both their Pro Bowl rate for BCS picks (13.6%) and the Niners' overall non-BCS Pro Bowl rate in the Salary Cap Era (12.5%).

When it comes to positions, the Policy regime pretty much followed the 80% rule of overall 49er draft strategy. The only exceptions were at DB (66.7%), LB (60.0%), and TE (50.0%). However, when combining positions into team units, the conclusion is different. In line with expectation, 81.3% of the OFF picks were from BCS schools. However, only 66.7% of the DEF picks came from BCS schools, which is well below the overall 49er rate of 79.3%.

Here's a table showing the number of BCS and non-BCS players that the 49ers have selected on each day of the draft:

BCS?	Day 1	Day 2	Total
Yes	14	8	22
No	1	6	7
Total	15	14	29

Not surprisingly, the Policy regime took 93.3% of their Day 1 picks from BCS schools, which is in line with the 89.8% overall BCS rate for the Niners. However, on Day 2, rather than the non-BCS rate tripling as it did in the overall numbers, it instead increased 6-fold to 42.9%! Clearly, the Policy regime absolutely adored those diamonds in the rough, most likely because he was actually good at finding them.

So I think I've established that the Policy regime was good at picking players from non-BCS schools, and that they picked more of these non-BCS players on Day 2. To further illustrate this point, the tables below show starters by draft day broken up into BCS and non-BCS picks:

BCS Picks
Starter?	Day 1	Day 2	Total
Yes	8	1	9
No	6	7	13
Total	14	8	22

Non-BCS Picks
Starter?	Day 1	Day 2	Total
Yes	1	2	4
No	0	4	3
Total	1	6	7

Among players taken from BCS schools, the 49ers' starter rate dropped from 57.1% on Day 1 to 12.5% on Day 2. Likewise, the non-BCS starter rate dropped from 100.0% on Day 1 to 33.3% on Day 2. However, what's interesting here is that the Policy regime's starter rate was better for non-BCS picks on both draft days. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Policy regime hit on Day 2 non-BCS players at an inordinate rate when compared to the overall 49er stats from 1994-2008. Again, this begs the question, "Why, then, did they trade away Day 2 in 1997?" For Edwards and Clark no less! Your guess is as good as mine.

Bottom line - Here's what I think are the main things to take away from this section:

The Policy regime took players from conferences that were close to home.
The Policy regime had a higher BCS rate for OFF picks than DEF picks.
The Policy regime took more non-BCS players on Day 2 of the draft than Day 1.
On both draft days, the Policy regime had better starter and Pro Bowl rates for picks from non-BCS schools.

GENERAL ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION

During the course of doing my research and stats for this article, it became apparent to me that the period in 49er history from 1994-1998 should be named, "Auto Pilot." I think both the Policy regime and 49er fans entered into a mindset that the dynasty would never end; that there was some supernatural force bestowing Hall of Famer after Hall of Famer on SF; that the mere presence of a West Coast offense, a Walshian approach to football, and a benevolent owner was enough to bring wins in perpetuity. The fact of the matter is that what kept the dynasty going for so long was a constant replenishment of superior talent through the draft. It was saying, "We're great, but we want to be perfect, and the way to be perfect is to get younger and deeper." If that meant letting an old-timer go or "gently" forcing him into retirement so that his younger understudy could get a chance to shine, that's what was done (See Young, Steve vis-à-vis Montana, Joe; Romanowski, Bill vis-à-vis Turner, Keena, etc.). Rather than by nibbling away at the edges of the envelope, the dynasty sustained itself by replacing the old envelope with a new one throughout its lifespan. To put it as poignantly as possible, Walsh saw a dynasty and tried to perfect it through the draft, whereas Policy and company saw a dynasty and wanted to put it on auto pilot.

I realize that there was no free agency before1993, but focusing on it after 1993 -at the expense of the draft - was the epic fail of the Policy regime. Rather than getting rid of the old guys and replacing them through the draft, they sat on their laurels, watching the old guys get older, and tradied away the valuable draft picks that could be used to replace them. What's worse is that, when it eventually came time to replace the free agent losses and retirees, the Policy regime chose free agency - rather than the draft - as its primary means.

In case you didn't know, I'm a Yankee fan. Don't fret, though. I'm not one of those obnoxious "the Yanks can do no wrong" or "Hey, there's no salary cap, so we're just playing by the rules when we spend $200M a year on payroll" types. On the contrary, I'm hypercritical of what the Yankees (esp. Brian Cashman) have done for the past 8 years; to the point now that I have a hard time watching their games or getting emotionally involved in their seasons. The reason I'm hypercritical is because it's a déjà vu experience; the same thing that I saw with the Niners in 1995.

The Yanks' success from 1996-2000 was achieved on the backs of homegrown talent (Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettitte, Bernie, etc.). When they used free agency, it was to sign the second-tier guys like Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez. Since Cashman became GM, however, they watched the old guys get older, traded away their prospects, and signed high-priced replacements via free agency. What have they gotten out of it? Over the past 8 years, they've gotten a lot of deceptively good seasons, but no championships.

And you know what? That's exactly how I look at the Policy years in SF. Rather than going with what got them there (i.e., the draft), the Niners chose the high-priced free agent route. They watched their stars get old, and did almost nothing. And what did it get them from 1995-1998? A lot of deceptively good seasons, but no championships. As is the case with the Yankees today in MLB, the Policy regime's strategy was no way to sustain an NFL dynasty in the mid-90s. Furthermore, as is the case with the Yankees today, what was needed in 1999 was for someone to blow up the Niners' franchise and go back to its drafting origins. Indeed, it wasn't until Bill Walsh himself retook the reins of the organization that the Policy regime's free agency attachment and draft neglect were stopped once and for all.

But that's the subject of Part 2b, which I'll discuss in detail tomorrow. So, with my diatribe complete, here's how I would describe the Policy regime's draft strategy, a strategy to which we'll be comparing subsequent regimes:

Draft picks are commodities best used for moving up in the draft.
Once you've addressed positional needs in free agency, there's no need to focus on them in the draft.
Dominate the neighborhood (i.e., take Pac-10 players and those near Youngstown, OH).
There's plenty of talent outside the BCS conferences, but wait until Day 2 to acquire it.

That's it for now. On Saturday, I'll break down the Walsh drafts (1999-2001). TO BE CONTINUED...

¹ DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How much blame would you assign the Policy regime's draft neglect in causing an end to he 49ers' dynasty?

All of the blame

45 votes

Most of the blame

135 votes

Some of the blame

147 votes

None of the blame

36 votes

363 votes | Poll has closed

Spagnuolo and free agent possibilities for the Rams

VanRam — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 12:47:12 -0000

Now comes the hard part. Having landed a prize catch in Steve Spagnuolo for their head coach and installed true football minds in the front office, the Rams can get on with the arduous task of rebuilding the franchise, finally. The task at hand now for Spags is filling out the rest of the coaching cadre, so it's probably a little premature to start talking about players he might be able to lure to the Gateway City. But, what kind of fans would we be if we weren't already thinking about that? So let's go ahead and put the cart before the horse and ask: what players might Spagnuolo be able to lure to the Rams to help fill the rebuilding team's long list of needs?

WR Amani Toomer, NYG - Wide receiver isn't high on the list of needs for the Rams, but with the possible departure of Torry Holt there may be an opening. Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton are the future-is-now guys atop the depth chart. Toomer, however, would give the Rams a veteran presence, a guy who intimately knows the ins and outs of the game. Plus, Toomer gives the Rams something they currently lack at WR, size. Though long in the tooth, he stills owns great hands. Sure, Drew Bennett is likely back in '09, though counting on him probably isn't a good move.

SS James Bulter, NYG - With first round draft pick Kenny Phillips waiting in the wings, the Giants may not make keeping Bulter a priority. He's exactly what the Rams need to replace Corey Chavous. If he does look for a new home, don't you think Spags might have some sway in convincing him to rejoin him? He could teach Atogwe a thing or two about coverage, and doesn't miss a lot of tackles. This would be a good get for the Rams, especially if they can find a hulking middle linebacker to bolster the middle.

CB Lito Shepard, PHI - We've talked about this guy before, and he's even not-so-subtly suggested a willingness to follow Spags, his former coach. What kind of asking price will the Eagles have though?

CB R.W. McQuarters, NYG - The veteran would be nothing more than depth in St. Louis, but as depth might be a reasonably priced, useful addition for Rams secondary set to have plenty of openings.

RB Derrick Ward, NYG - This guy would be perfect for the Rams second back, not to replace Steven Jackson, but another weapon on the ground for a power running offense.

SS Sean Considine, PHI - He started 7 games for the Eagles in 2007, but would fit best on special teams.

QB David Carr, NYG - This guy could be a steal...or a total waste. He looked bad starting for Carolina last season, but when you consider that during his five year tenure as the starter for the woeful Texans he was sacked even more than Marc Bulger, 249 times, as a Rams fan you can kind of understand. He's youngish at 30 next season and could be primed for a rebound. Worlds better than the ghost of Trent Green, Carr could be exactly the kind of backup the Rams need to push Bulger while they search for their QB of the future. Don't forget, Giants QB coach Chris Pamler is on the rumored short list for coaching jobs with the Rams; could that have some sway?

There's room for debate, but any of those players with a connection to Spags (who knows how tight those connections are) would fill a need for the Rams. And don't forget the Senior Bowl is this week, so we'll be talking draft too.

Final Injury Report: Bengals @ Giants

Kirkendall — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:14:22 -0000

STATUS

BENGALS

OUT: S Dexter Jackson (thumb), S Herana-Daze Jones (hamstring)
DOUBTUL: CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle), TE Ben Utecht (chest)
PROBABLE: S Kyries Hebert (hamstring), TE Reggie Kelly (head), S Nedu Ndukwe (knee), QB Carson Palmer (ankle), DT John Thornton (knee)

GIANTS

DOUBTFUL: CB R.W. McQuarters (calf)
QUESTIONABLE: CB Terrell Thomas (hamstring), K Lawrence Tynes (left knee)
PROBABLE: S Michael Johnson (neck), DE Mathias Kiwanuka (ankle)

Practices

BENGALS	Wed.	Thurs.	Fri.
S Dexter Jackson (thumb)	OUT	OUT	OUT
S Herana-Daze Jones (hamstring)	DNP	DNP	OUT
CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle)	DNP	DNP	DNP
TE Reggie Kelly (head)	DNP	FP	FP
DT John Thornton (knee)	DNP	LP	FP
TE Ben Utecht (chest)	DNP	DNP	DNP
S Chinedum Ndukwe (knee)	LP	LP	FP
QB Carson Palmer (ankle)	FP	FP	FP
S Kyries Hebert (hamstring)	--	LP	LP

GIANTS
CB R.W. McQuarters (calf)	DNP	DNP	DNP
S Michael Johnson (neck)	LP	FP	FP
DE Mathias Kiwanuka (ankle)	LP	LP	FP
CB Terrell Thomas (hamstring)	LP	LP	FP
K Lawrence Tynes (left knee)	LP	LP	LP

DNP - Did Not Practice
LP - Limited Participation in Practice
FP - Full Participation in Practice

Random Ramsdom, 8/30: roster possibilities

VanRam — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 15:17:33 -0000

Here's a few time wasters if you need a break from your family this weekend. Hey, one week from tomorrow it's here. All the preseason noise fades into background. Over the course of the week we'll be talking lots about the matchup, so stay tuned.

RB Lance Ball surprised everyone with a really solid camp. Unfortunately, he's probably just far enough on the other side of the bubble to be left off the 53-man roster. He is, however, almost a sure thing for the practice squad, unless... some other team in need of depth at RB puts in a claim when/if the Rams waive him before they can sign him to the practice squad. The Jets have cut Jesse Chatman and are left with just two RBs, Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. They could be looking for a third. Of course, Shuan Alexander might be a better option for a third RB, but a guy like Ball could come much cheaper.
With CB Fahkir Brown still not working in team activities and questionable for week 1, the Rams will most certainly be looking for an extra hand at CB. It's being reported that the Giants will likely release veteran CBs R.W. McQuarters, 31, and Sam Madison, 34. As you can see both guys are pretty long in the tooth, but as veteran depth they could be decent additions. McQuarters returned 42 punts for the Giants last season and played in all 16 games. He had three INTs in the post season and hauled in another against the Pats in preseason play this week. Madison had 67 tackles last season and 4 INTs.
DE Vernon Gholston was once on the Rams draft day radar, a little further down on the list. Gholston has struggled through the preseason with the Jets, and has been called their biggest disappointment of the preseason. They are working him at LB too. Interesting to note the struggles the young DEs taken in the draft are having, like Chris Long. I think with the talent these two guys have, they'll emerge, but it takes time. Remember when Mario Williams, drafted ahead of Reggie Bush, looked like a huge bust? Until he had 14.5 sacks last year.
WR Donnie Avery has a sprained right knee, nothing serious, and he should be able to play at Philly in week 1. They'll evaluate him in practice this week. It is, apparently, an injury he's dealt with before, in his senior year.
Five areas of progress, five areas of concern.
Rams drinking games. That drink for every Drew Bennett dropped pass could get you in trouble.

And finally, all eyes on another big football game in the EJD tonight as Mizzou takes on Illinois. Get all the MU talk you need at Rock M Nation.