SB Nation - Derrick Ward

BUCCANEER DOMINATION

Niko Houllis — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:16:29 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Dedication to the running game opened up passing options for Josh Freeman, including two screen pass TD passes.

No more blaming the Chest bumping. You were throwing yourself off the couch too.

No more blaming the play calling. Greg Olsen stuck with the run regardless of the result. Couldn't gain yardage with the run game? No problem, bring in Denmar Dotson as a Tight End. Still cant run the ball? How about running from the Power i Formation? In a play John McKay would be proud of, the Bucs lined up with two blocking backs and a tailback behind Freeman, and stuck with the run, actually getting some big ones with their stubborness, and allowed Freeman to throw against a weak Seahawk pass defense that actually was not aware of what was going to hit them.

After a sloppy first half in which both teams missed easy Field Goal attempts; Seattle with a fumbled snap, Bucs with ABD; Another Barth Doink, the Bucs came out with a few adjustments made. Connor Barth, after missing his first 38 yarder, nailed the next three in a row as the Bucs exploded with 24 consecutive unanswered points to defeat the Seattle Seahawks 24-7 and drop one spot in the Ndomekong Suh race.

It could have been worse but the Cleveland Browns did their part by winning today, still Tampa Bay now slides down into a tie with Detroit and due to our difficult schedule, loses out on a tiebreaker. Also costly was an injury to Tanard Jackson which is undetermined, and Chris Hovan also went down late in the second half.

This after an inspired defense played the way the Bucs of old always did; bend but dont break. Seahawk leading rushers averaged over 5 yards per carry, but in the second half, the Bucs defense was having nothing to do with it. Still, with the defense playing better as of late, the big shock of the day was the second half domination of the offense, led by the beleaguered running attack of Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams, as well as never say quit QB Josh Freeman. The Bucs offense came out in the second half and set up some nice Freeman completions before two screen pass TDs gave the Bucs their first multi-TD lead at the start of the 4th quarter all year.

In doing so, the Bucs broke or tied some impressive records:

Kellen Winslow Jr set a record with the most receptions for a Bucs Tight End in a season.

For only the 4th time in the regular season, and the 5th all time including the Superbowl, the Bucs won a game on the West Coast. The last time was 10 years ago, when Shawn King took over for an injured Trent Dilfer in 1999.

Up next, the Bucs play at New Orleans who is reeling after a first loss in 2009 to the Dallas Cowboys, and then will finish off the 2009 season at home against the Atlanta Falcons.

Week 15 Player Profile: RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams

Craig T — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 00:13:40 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

If the Bucs want to win another game this season, this man will need to put the team on has back and carry them to the finish line. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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Overview: Austin Powers might be known as the "international man of mystery", but several Buccaneers hold that title here in the bay area, and Cadillac Williams is as much of a man of mystery as anyone. He's been suspiciously absent from the Buccaneer backfield (and the endzone) far more often than most of us would like or expected this season.

Really, mystery should be one of the words used to describe this season. To most of us, it's been a mystery why Raheem and the Buccaneer front office cleaned house and proclaimed that they were looking to go in a new direction and that this would be a violent, physical team. They went out and got RB Derrick Ward to create a RB triumverate of Ward, Caddy, and Earnest Graham. Clearly, with Caddy coming off of two torn pattelar tendons, they wanted to ease him back in the game and they saw something they liked in Derrick Ward as a possible featured back.

Flash forward to Week 15...

The Bucs sit at as arguably the worst and least physical team in the league with a 1-12 record and a basement-worthy rank of rushing yards per game. Rookie Josh Freeman has supplanted two ineffective Buccaneer quarterbacks. Despite his hot-and-cold see-saw performances from week-to-week, the Buccaneers continue to throw at a percentage that would make Tom Brady and Peyton Manning blush. The line can't get a consistent push and the running game is nearly non-existent.

Many fans are angrily calling out the coaching staff not just for the painful results this season, but for the questionable offensive philsophy the team has taken, especially since the FOTF (Face of the Franchise) Josh Freeman has taken over the reigns of the offense. Why do they refuse to run the ball consistently? We hear it week in and week out on Total Access and at the weekly presser that they're going to find a way to run the ball more, but that proclamation gets thrown out with the trash come Sunday, as Josh Freeman continues to air it out 60-70 percent of the time.

The Bucs certainly aren't without playmaking talent at running back. They've got a couple of guys who've thrived at different times on this team, one of whom is our main home run threat and fan favorite, Cadillac Williams. Although never putting together an MVP-calibur season, he's shown to be able to give the Bucs a big-play threat and carry the load when needed... and healthy, which has been a problem for him. He hit the ground running, literally, in his 2005 rookie campaign, exploding onto the scene with 1178 rushing yards at a respectable 4.1 yards per clip. Lingering injuries and Gruden's love affair with the short pass in lieu of the run limited Caddy's opportunities from '06 through '09. Despite the devastating patellar tendon injuries that sidelined him for parts of '07 and '08, he's come back running hard and determined... and it appears the previous regime and current staff forgot he can run like this...

Highlights: The first two plays are an exhibition of why you stick with the run early and often, even when the sledding gets tough early, and worth looking at a little more closely. Just as our defense did against Thomas Jones in the 2nd quarter last week, players miss tackles, take bad angles, and miss assignments, leading to big plays. What's great about having a guy like Caddy is that he can make that big play...hit that home run.

First play is a single back, two tight end set. A simple dive play. Caddy hits the A-gap with a good burst and quickly finds the optimal route to a 12-yard gain and a first down. The key on this play is two-fold, in my opinion... the line, all 5 of them, got a good 2-yard push on the front 7 and locked up their defenders right between the pads. Michael Clayton made a heck of a block on the outside linebacker, which was probably made a bout a 9-yard difference.

On the very next play, a tremendous individual effort from Caddy resulted in the first Buccaneer points of the game. Strong right I-formation, off-tackle run called. However, the end comes into the backfield unblocked and Caddy, recognizing his lane closing, hits the L1 button and cuts left away from the play and takes it to the garage. It almost looked like an iso counter. Good vision, quick feet, and good speed.

Against New England, Caddy runs a simple iso up the middle for a solid gain, showing his willingness and ability to put his head down and run over defensive backs. Faine and Joseph pushed back Wilfork and Trueblood pushed out the defensive end nicely, creating a big alley for Caddy. It's also nice to see a guy coming off two devastating knee injuries not being afraid to take contact with multiple defenders and push hard for the extra yards.

Finally, Caddy hits the hole against Washington, puts on a move, and takes it for almost 20 yards. Although he has not managed to stay on the field, which certainly can't go overlooked if you're looking for a running back to feature, he has good straightline speed and can get to the linebackers more quickly than other backs. That split-second difference makes a huge impact in the runnign game if the line is having a hard time holding their blocks.

Prospects for Week 14:

Despite promising us several times that they're going to find ways to get the running game going, I just don't see them sticking with the running game, which is a shame because as I said before, big plays can be had on the ground just as they can through the air with far less risk of a significant negative play or turnover. Seattle is actually pretty good against the run, ranking 5th in the NFL in 81 YPGA. Despite their blowout loss last week, Seattle held the Texans' backs to a combined 85 total rushing yards. Based on the Bucs' offensive tendencies and Seattle's solid run defense, I'd expect about 11-13 carries for 50-65 yards and maybe one score on Sunday.

New York Jets Run Defense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Run Offense

John B — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 02:16:46 -0000

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The Bucs pass more than they run by a 403-293 ratio. Tampa might get more conservative this week with their rookie quarterback facing a blitzing defense. The top back on the roster is Cadillac Williams. He's got 572 yards on 144 carries, a 4.0 average. Williams has a lot of natural ability. He doesn't have a ton of weaknesses. The production hasn't really been there, though. Derrick Ward, his backup, is an elusive runner only averaging 3.6 per run on 84 carries. You have to think he's regretting leaving the Giants.

Williams and Ward are both good backs. The problem seems to be their blocking. We discussed earlier how Tampa Bay doesn't pass block well. Their run blocking also leaves something to be desired. The offensive line is comprised of five players who have consistently lost matchups this season. That's the only way a run game struggles with talented backs. Sione Pouha and Shaun Ellis have favorable matchups. Bart Scott and David Harris should stay relatively clean.

Given the run blocking struggles, it's somewhat surprising the Bucs haven't used Ernest Graham as a runner more. Graham is two years removed from a breakout 898 yard campaign. He's working primarily as a lead blocker this year. He's a tough inside runner capable of picking up tough yardage. He only has 12 carries this year.

One area the Bucs can burn the Jets on the ground is in the quarterback position. Josh Freeman has a 7.6 average on 18 carries. If the Jets sell out on the blitz, I do worry about Freeman's ability to turn a broken play into something if he finds some open field. Aside from that, the Jets seem to have an edge against the run.

Bucs shoot blanks, go down fighting 16-6

Niko Houllis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:48:24 -0000

Antonio Bryant was a Freeman favorite; in between the 20s.

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Bucs fans were taken on a wild ride today, as they lost to the Carolina Panthers by only ten points, but left many of their own on the field as two missed Field Goals and 5 interceptions spelled doom for the Pewter Pirates in Carolina.

Call it progress on an small level. The Bucs gave up 158 yards of rushing to Carolina, which was better than the 267 earlier this year, which was better than the 299 at the end of last season. In the 3rd and 4th quarter, the Bucs actually took yardage away from the Panthers totals. The offense meanwhile went almost 500 yards today, but no one on the team should be happy as the maturation process of Josh Freeman entered another chapter with 5 interceptions registered to the rookie signal caller. Most of them costly, Freeman will undoubtedly learn from his mistakes, but the timing of them couldn't have been any worse for Bucs fans who watched Connor Barth doink one kick of off the left goalpost, and push another right of the next. He made his first two kicks today, but that is all the Bucs offense had to show for its 1st place Red Zone ranking prior to this game. Every time the Bucs drove the Ball into enemy territory though, they came up empty. They ran the ball, they threw the ball, but in the end It didnt matter if it was a running play or a pass, the result was basically the same. Lots of movement in between the 20s to the tune of 469 yards of offense, but no scoring.

Some Bucs Shots...

Kellen Winslow was basically a soldier MIA, yet ended up with 69 yards with a handful of catches with a few late 4th qtr appearances.
Cadillac Williams almost finished with 100 yards, going 92 yards on 17 plays for a 5.4 avg.
Derrick Ward had a few good runs as a Buc, averaging 6.4 ypc with 32 yards on 5 carries.
Antonio Bryant in keeping up with last years showing in Carolina, caught 5 balls for 115 yards.
Bucs are now 1-15 in the 16 complete games since the last loss at Carolina on MNF, the worst stretch since 1977.

But the only news that really is news, the throwing of young Josh Freeman with his 24 of 44 for 321 yards but the handful of picks he would love to shake off as soon as possible.

On the other side of the ball, the defense was gashed early with sloppy tackling reminicent of previous Bucs/Panthers contests, and the score got to a 10-0 deficit in a hurry. But the Bucs took over the game and put two FGs on the board before all the misfires occured.

The 5 Things the Bucs need for a happy 2010

Niko Houllis — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:50:52 -0000

What the Bucs need to do to have a better 2010...

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In no particular order, here are five things the Bucs need to do to insure a happy Buccaneers 2010 season; with an extra point after the jump.

Continue to show improvement in play- The Bucs have been blown out by double digits in 5 of the first 7 games. In the last four? The Bucs lost one big, but won one, and lost the other two by a combined 5 points!.... in the last minute of each game! Josh Freeman is outplaying the other two big named rookie quarterbacks, as Josh is now 69 out of 125 (55.2%) for 793 yards 7 TDs and 5 Ints. His 76.5 QB Rating is higher than the 62.4 for Stafford or 62.1 for Sanchez. Both of those QBs have thrown for less completion %, and have a higher interception rate too.
Maintain continuity- Many fans want to see Bill Cowher coach this Bucs team. Yet Cowher's success comes from his ownership giving him 15 plus years to run the team, and not let him go at the first sign of a poor record or poor showings. The Quick Pull that fans want to do with Raheem is exactly the thing that would have ruined Cowher. Redskins QB Campbell is a fine example of what happens to a QB who gets a new Coordinator each year. Closer to home Bucs Shawn King had a new coordinator each year, Shula in '99, Les Steckle, Clyde Christianson, Jon Gruden was no. 4 in 4 years. Keep Raheem Morris, Greg Olsen, and remove the Bates defensive coaches so everyone is on the same page. We are seeing this improvement we have been looking for all year. If it continues, this offseason isnt the time to do it.s
Import more defensive talent, starting with the Defensive Line- Now that its obvious the Bucs return to the Tampa Two is a little more long term, the restocking of the Bucs defense is now on a lesser scale. Before the season is over, the defensive coaches need to assess if anyone on the roster is capable of taking over the undertackle 3 technique. If not, then this is a critical position on the roster that must be addressed in the NFL Draft, and Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh is a popular choice for that particular need. The secondary will need some attention too, as Ronde Barber is not getting younger, and Sabby Piscitelli needs to be assessed if he is the man to take the free safety position for the Bucs.
Punting is fundamental- Its not FUN though for Bucs fans, watching Dirk Johnson punt that is. The Bucs 'for real' punter Josh Bidwell's condition must be assertained to determine if his season ending injury is going to hamper his efforts in 2010. The last thing a struggling defense needs is a poor punter. Connor Barth seems to be the real deal in the place kicking department. When he misses, he misses by feet, not stadiums. Matt Bryant was similar.
Find a franchise running back- Take a moment to get your breath back after reading this one...and tell everyone which of the three running backs is a real, bonafide franchise back, that can be relied upon in a pinch. Cadillac? Love the whole story, its a great one, but he is 90% of what he was. A franchise back can break a 45 yard TD. Which one of our Backs do you see doing that? Derrick Ward has been a disapointment, but will be given another chance next year. Earnest Graham may be the real deal, but we need an LT, a Bettis, an........Alstott, to go with our Freeman.

OK OK, Extra Point- It may not sound popular. But number 5 + 1; Re-sign Antonio Bryant- Forget the injury. They happen. Its not a career bug, but it was bad enough that it affected most of he season. Not really his fault. What did he do with it? Did he cause a disruption in the lockeroom? Wasnt that the worry after all about AB? Not that he could do the job, but that he wouldnt turn into a head case. Two seasons now, and the worse we have is Bryant saying throw the ball more please. Tell me he is wrong first before you let him go, because you can bet there will be a line at the Free Agency window if he is not given a long term contract. Also...start Sammy Stroughter and Maurice Stovall so 1) Sammy can show he is a serious #2 guy, or 3) Stovall can finally show us he is more than a special team star.

Run, Giants run! Or, why can't the Giants run anymore?

Ed Valentine — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 12:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

What is wrong with the New York Giants running game? Plenty, but one big thing is that we just have not seen enough of this -- Brandon Jacobs with the football.

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What is wrong with the New York Giants' running game? Everyone seems to have an opinion, so here is mine.

I think the answer is two-fold.

The offensive line is not playing as well as it has the past couple of seasons.
Philosophically, the Giants are now a pass-first team and not a 'punish the defense with a physical ground game' first team.

First, let's lay out the numbers.

The Giants are averaging 126.8 yards rushing per game, ninth in the league. That is waaaay down from the league-leading 157.4 per game they averaged in 2008. It is also their worst rushing performance since they averaged just 119 yards per game in 2004. Not coincidentally, that is also the last time the Giants missed the playoffs.

On a per-carry basis, they average 4.3 yards. Respectable, but hardly the dominant 5.0 per carry they ripped off last season.

They have a paltry six rushing plays for 20 or more yards, none for 40 or more. In 2008, they had 24 runs of 20+ and three runs of 40+.

The Offensive Line

We have talked about the offensive line's troubles before. We need to do it again, though, because the disappointing work by the guys up front is a big part of why the Giants have been unable to run consistently. I turned to my newfound favorite stat site, Pro Football Focus, for data on the play of the Giants offensive linemen. As of Saturday, these numbers are still through only 10 games. Yet, good enough to give you an idea what is going on.

The chart below gives you PFF's run-blocking scores for each lineman for 2008 and 2009. I put Madison Hedgecock and Kevin Boss in there because they are key components of the run-blocking schemes.

Player	2008	2009
David Diehl	-4.5	-0.2
Rich Seubert	+18.3	-4.9
Shaun O'Hara	+7.5	+13.5
Chris Snee	+21.2	+14.0
Kareem McKenzie	+7.7	+9.7
Kevin Boss	+5.1	+12.9
Madison Hedgecock	+0.3	-0.9

Anyone else see what I see? Look at Rich Seubert's numbers. Using PFF's method of a zero for doing what is expected, gaining points for doing more than expected and losing points for doing less than expected, Seubert has dropped more than 23 points from last season. Is he hurt? I don't know. I do know Seubert has not been good.

David Diehl is slightly better in 2009 than 2008, but still in negative numbers. So, basically, that means the Giants cannot run to the left. Watch the clip below, and you will notice that Brandon Jacobs likes running left. If the Giants can't block that side, that is a huge problem.

Look a little deeper. I have had the impression that Hedgecock, the blocking fullback, has not been having a great year. PFF's numbers confirm it. When you have a blocking fullback whose numbers as a blocker are below average, that is another huge problem. Even Chris Snee, acknowledged as the best lineman, has good numbers. But, not as good as 2008.

So, the left side of the Giants line is below par in run blocking. And they are not getting good work from the blocking back. A pretty ugly combination.

The philosophy

After Thursday night's blowout loss to the Broncos coach Tom Coughlin had this to say.

"Football to me is that you have to run the ball and stop the run. Those are the first things you do have to do to put yourself in a position to be able to take advantage of the various aspects of your plans and your talent."

I think, overall, Coughlin is a terrific head coach. He has a Super Bowl ring, and I hope he coaches the Giants as long as he wants to. To be brutally honest, though, you have wonder sometimes if those are just words to the veteran head coach. At least in terms of how the Giants approach offense, that is.

I really hate to do this, but I can't help it. Because I can't stop thinking about it. Turn the clock all the way back to 2006, back to the days when Tiki Barber was openly challenging Coughlin and openly questioning the strategy being employed. What was Barber's chief complaint in those days, when John Hufnagel was calling the plays?

His chief complaint was that the Giants abandoned the run too quickly, failing to take full advantage of their best player. Which happened to be Barber.

Fast forward to 2009. What was O'Hara saying to reporters the other day? That he feels the Giants are abandoning the run too quickly.

"I think really as a unit we are probably frustrated with the run game. It has come so easy for us the last few years. Running the football has really been an afterthought. Yeah, we will get six, seven yards, no big deal. We’ll get 150 yards rushing without even blinking an eye. Things are a little bit tougher; it’s tougher sledding.

"The only way, in my eyes, to get back on track is to keep doing it and do it more. I think, as offensive linemen, we are always going to complain that we aren’t running the football enough. That is kind of our M.O. We want to run the ball more. Quarterbacks and receivers, we are going to have discussions with them every single day, they want to throw it, we want to run it. That is a constant battle. I am not going to be happy until we have 35-40 carries in a game."

I will bet you a nickel Tiki enjoyed reading that.

The overall stats leave little doubt that the Giants have gone from balanced to pass happy. They show that the Giants have run the ball an average of 29.8 times per game this season vs. 31.4 last season, a slight difference. Pass attempts, though, are up from 30.7 attempts per game last season to 34.4 per game in 2009. So, in 2009 the Giants are passing the ball 54 percent of the time. In 2008, they passed 49 percent of the time.

It doesn't seem like a big difference, but in truth it is.

Here are the numbers during the last six games, in which we know the Giants have won just once.

Opponent	Passes	Runs
New Orleans	36	19
Arizona	37	26
Philadelphia	39	32
San Diego	33	28
Atlanta	39	26
Denver	40	16

Total them, and that is 224 pass plays, and just 147 running plays, or 60.3 percent passing plays. A far cry from the balance the Giants have always said they strive for in their offense.

Now, a small percentage of that can be explained by the Giants trailing big late in a couple of those games. Yet, that isn't the whole explanation.

During their five-game win streak at the beginning of the season, the Giants ran the ball 180 times and passed it 154, or 54% of the time. Yes, slightly skewed by the blowouts against Tampa Bay and Oakland in which the Giants were running out the clock at the end of the games. Yet, to me, clearly an indication that the Giants are better served when they remember to run the football.

It's plain to see that the Giants have become a team that uses the run to protect the lead, but not to go and get it. Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride quite obviously want to put the ball in the air when the game is in doubt.

What is the big problem with that? The NFL is clearly now a passing league, and analyst after analyst will tell you that you have to throw to score touchdowns.

Sure, except the one offensive player the Giants have who is feared by opposing defenses is the 6-foot-4, 270-pound Jacobs. The guy no one in the league likes to tackle.

During the past six games, Jacobs has averaged just 12.3 carries per game. Sorry, but whether he is running as well as last year or not, offensive line struggles or not, Jacobs cannot do what he is paid to do with that puny workload.

Jacobs' job is to wear out defenses. To set a physical tone and tire out defenders, making it easier for Ahmad Bradshaw or D.J. Ware to find holes late in the game. And for Eli Manning to throw without pass rushers draped all over him.

The Giants are not allowing him to do that. And failing to give Jacobs 18-20 carries per game means they are not playing to their strength, as much as I love Eli and the receiving corps. Remember, too, that Jacobs alone is doling out that physical punishment this season. Derrick Ward was 230 pounds and could also punish defenders. Bradshaw can make them miss, but he can't make them hurt.

TC has been talking a lot lately about winning the physical battle. Well, to do that TC and KG have got to remember to take full advantage of the Giants most physical player.

Dolphins Second Half Preview: What to watch for

Matty I — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:33:39 -0000

More photos » by J. Pat Carter - AP

Are we starting to see the beginning of the end of the 'Wildcat'?

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Yesterday we took a look back at the first half of the Dolphins' season and I tried to help ease some of the pain by highlighting many of the positives to come out of the first half of the season. Today we take a look ahead as I highlight just some of the story lines to watch in the second half of the season.

But before I do that, I just want to quickly state the obvious. I know that some fans will respond by saying that the only thing to watch for is if the Dolphins can make the playoffs. But let's be real for a moment. The Dolphins are 3-5 and I think it's pretty fair to say that it will take at least 10 wins to make the playoffs in the AFC. Some will argue that 9 wins can do it and will break out the remaining schedules of other teams and begin forecasting wins and losses to compute a way that a 9 win team can make the playoffs. And while it's possible, I'm simply not counting on it. That means the Dolphins will have to go 7-1 to have a real shot at a second consecutive postseason. That's a huge task - and I'm not counting on it at all, really.

But with that said, we can all hope. After all, you never know...

Other than an unlikely playoff appearance, here are some other story lines - in no particular order - that should make the second half of Dolphins football very interesting.

Is the 'Wildcat' finally beginning to lose its teeth?
I really hope it's not because it's become part of who the Dolphins are now. And it sure did look great for the first five games of the season, averaging 6.6 yards per play out of the formation. But in their last three games, the 'Wildcat' has been rather ineffective. One can't help but wonder if the formation is beginning to hurt this team more than help it at this point.

Of course, we also now have the 'WildPat' - when rookie quarterback Pat White takes snaps and executes a spread option type of offense. I'm fairly confident that we haven't seen the last of that formation, either. But the 'Wildcat' - as defined by having a non-quarterback take the snap from center - is either going to rise up from the ashes yet again or is going to continue to slowly die a quiet death. Which one will it be?

Can Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams become just the fifth running back duo to each rush for 1,000 yards?
Three games ago, it looked like Ronnie and Ricky had a very good chance to pull off this feat - an accomplishment that former Giants' teammates Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward achieved just last season in New York. But suddenly, it's not looking as good. As it stands, Brown is on pace for 1,132 yards while Williams projects to just 912. But with four of the team's remaining eight games against teams that rank 22nd or lower against the run, this dynamic duo could still pull it off. But it all has to start this week with strong showings by both players against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 30th ranked rush defense.

Of course, for this to happen, Miami's $150 million offensive line has to start playing better than they've performed in these last three weeks. This unit looked like it was on its way to becoming one of the league's most physically dominant offensive lines. But they've looked average at best since the bye back in week six. Hopefully they get things back on track, beginning this week.

Will Chad Henne continue to improve?
Back in week five against the Jets on Monday Night Football, Chad Henne gave Dolphin fans everywhere a huge reason to be optimistic about his future. Making just his second career start, Henne completed 20 of 26 passes for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns as he lead the Dolphins to a fourth quarter comeback win over a hated division rival. But since then, Henne has looked pedestrian at best - completing just 54% of his passes for 542 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions over his last three games while being sacked 9 times. Granted - it's not all his fault by any means. His receivers don't get much separation and, when they do, are prone to dropping passes. His offensive line has also struggled at times to protect him.

Even still, I'm hoping to see continual positive progression from Henne over these final eight games of 2009. He needs to be a little bit more decisive in his reads and does need to improve his accuracy as well. With that said, I'm slowly becoming a true Chad Henne believer. Hopefully these final eight games seal the deal for me.

Can we get a little bit more Wake?
It was understandable at first. Cameron Wake was a very raw former CFL standout who needed to learn how to play the game at this level. Plus, we also had two veterans who have proven track records of getting to the quarterback. But I think it's finally time to let Cameron Wake get more and more snaps now. After his 2.5 sack performance against Buffalo, many of you wanted to see more of Wake. But I understood the coaching staff's decision at the time. Buffalo's offensive line is probably the worst in football's, so that could have contributed to the success Wake had. And like I said, we didn't realize at that point how ineffective Joey Porter (and to a lesser extent Jason Taylor) would become.

But against the Patriots last week, Wake saw 11 snaps and had a sack and a quarterback pressure. And just from my hazy memory, I do recall noticing Wake was a step or two away from getting to Brady at least one or two addditional times. Porter, meanwhile, suddenly looks old. I think it's time for Wake to see a major bump in his playing time.

How much better will the three rookies in the secondary continue to get?
One of the things to amaze me this season has been how - despite all the passing yards this team has surrendered - I don't cringe whenever the opposing quarterback drops back to pass. I imagine this has a lot to do with how well rookies Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have been performing. Have they made some mistakes? Yes. Have they gotten beat for big gains and touchdowns? Of course. But you can just tell that both of these guys are going to become excellent players very quickly, giving the Dolphins an outstanding young cornerback tandem. Sure, they will continue to surrender big gains at times throughout the remainder of the season. When that happens, just think of it as a good learning experience for these two kids. After all, the future is very bright for these two.

There's also a third rookie in the secondary, though, that I think will continue to see his playing time slowly increase as the season goes on. His name is Chris Clemons. The rookie safety out of Clemson finally got on the field three weeks ago, even starting the game against the Saints at free safety in place of Gibril Wilson. And let's be honest - if Gibril doesn't pick up his game as a cover safety, then we are likely to see more and more of the speedy rookie. That would be fine with me.

The Status of Aaron Kampman

Brandon — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:31:36 -0000

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I noted in the Green Bay Packers game recap that LB Aaron Kampman was bad in coverage on the TD pass to RB Derrick Ward in the 1st quarter. It was a surprise that he was ineffective against the Buccaneers. His main opponent was RT Jeremy Trueblood, who as far as I know is good but not heading to the Pro Bowl. But Kampman occasionally has a game when he doesn't make a big impact.

It turned out he suffered a concussion on the 4th play of the game, but he played until the middle of the 4th quarter. He might not play at all next Sunday against the Cowboys.

With only 2.5 sacks this season, the transition to the 3-4 hasn't been a huge success for him. Something he apparently was worried about when he didn't speak to the media back in May. But he has had many opportunities to lineup as a down lineman, and he hasn't often taken advantage of those opportunities either.

The big problem with his absence is that he'll be replaced by some combination of LB Jeremy Thompson and LB Brady Poppinga. Due to various injuries, Thompson has rarely played outside LB in a game this season or preseason. He's an unknown in some respects, although we've seen him play some at defensive end last season. I know what Poppinga can do, and he's a significant step down from Kampman, but the coaches seem to love him. Rookie LB Brad Jones is another option, but he's an unknown too.

There's not a lot of good options here if Kampman can't play. Who's the best one?

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Buccaneers

Brandon — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:15:19 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Tanard Jackson (36) gets a pat on the back from teammate Sabby Piscitelli (21) after returning an interception for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009. The Panthers won 28-21. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

Browse more photos »

The first thing that jumps out is zero, which is the number of 2009 wins by the last remaining winless team this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They looked very good in week 4 last season when they beat the Packers 30-21, but that seems like a long time ago. Since then they've fired their Super Bowl winning head coach, their long time defensive coordinator left for the University of Tennessee, and they've released or traded several defensive starters, including Pro Bowl LB Derrick Brooks. After an ugly loss to the Patriots in London, the Bucs are coming off the bye-week and giving their rookie 1st round QB Josh Freeman his first NFL start. As long as I'm dumping on the Bucs, I might as well mentioned how they shot themselves in the foot by firing Ron Wolf back in 1978.

Sometimes a record doesn't tell the whole story. But in this case it does; the Bucs are as bad as they look.

Instead of using the official NFL stats this week, I'm going with Football Outsiders. The problem with the official stats, which are based on yards/game, is that they don't take into account that their opponents have only attempted 180 passes against the Bucs, which is the lowest total in the NFL. I don't know why teams aren't throwing the ball against them because they aren't very good at stopping them: they've allowed 16 TDs to 8 INTs while their opponents' QB rating against them is 102.1. So from Football Outsiders.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	13	8	6	7

Team	Run Defense	Pass Defense	Run Offense	Pass Offense
Buccaneers	30	31	20	26

While RB Ryan Grant isn't running his way to the Pro Bowl this season, the Bucs aren't stopping anyone, only holding their opponents to 4.7 yards/carry. That's similar to the Browns, who allow 4.9 yards/carry, and Grant ran over them for 148 yards and 1 TD. Packers.

As I mentioned above the jump, though teams aren't throwing a lot of passes against the Bucs, it doesn't mean they are stopping the ones that are thrown. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating of 110.4, Bucs are "holding" their opponents to a 102.1 QB rating - it sounds like a matchup Rodgers should win. Packers.

If the Bucs have one bright spot, it's their running game, which is moving along at a 4.2 yards/carry. Both of their top rushers, RB Cadillac Williams and RB Derrick Ward, are over 4 yards/carry this season. But the Packers run defense has been even better, holding opponents to 3.5 yards/carry, while only allowing 3 rushing TDs and recovering 4 fumbles. The Bucs rushing attack is doing about as well as Detroit and Cleveland, and neither of those teams did much running the ball against the Packers earlier this season. Packers.

While not as good as last season, the Packers pass defense is still very good with 11 INTs and holding their opponents to a QB rating of 74.4. The Bucs have been awful the last 4 weeks with QB Josh Johnson as their starter, not that QB Byron Leftwich did much in the 3 games he started. So, as mentioned before the jump, they are turning to the rookie Freeman. It's hard to know how the rookie will play, but if he is truly better than Johnson or Leftwich (at this point in his career) you'd think he would have started before week 8. Packers.

Packers 38, Bucs 10.

Why Ryan Grant Isn't The Answer

Mitchell_M — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:15:18 -0000

Ryan Grant is an enigma of sorts. He is a starting running back in the NFL, yet he is widely regarded as a player with above-average skills at best. He is good at many things, but great at nothing. Even his Scouts Inc. profile from ESPN.com shows how he is simultaneously impressive and limited.

He doesn't have outstanding speed but runs well and has quickness and burst to hit the hole...He has good power to move the pile, but wouldn't be considered an explosive ball carrier...He has adequate hands as a target in the passing game but isn't dangerous in the open field after the catch.

To sum up Ryan Grant's career to this point: "meh." He doesn't have the size of Brandon Jacobs, or the elusiveness of Adrian Peterson, or the power of Michael Turner, or the agility of LaDanian Tomlinson, or the vision of Ronnie Brown, or the afterburner speed of Chris Johnson. He has those things in smaller amounts, but not enough to be considered special.

Despite his rather pedestrian profile, Grant has respectible numbers over his 3-year career: 2654 yards, 15 touchdowns, and a ypc average of 4.3. He has a reputation of being able to produce despite his physical limitations, and that reputation has dubbed him the main rusher on one of the few teams that does not employ a running-back-by-committee.

My question is this: Should Ryan Grant be the lone ball-carrier on the Packers?

In order to explore this question, we first have to look at the state of the running back position in Green Bay since 2007, when Grant burst onto the scene. In 2007, Grant was behind the likes of Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency, and DeShawn Wynn. It took all the way until Week 8 (the Denver OT game) for Grant to establish himself in the Packer backfield, and even then it was only due to injuries to those in front of him.

In 2008, Grant was the unquestioned starter, and Jackson and Wynn were contributors. That trend continued to this season, with a minor change in personnel. DeShawn Wynn managed to find his way onto the injured reserve list (again), so former Packer Pro Bowler Ahman Green takes his place. Despite his history, Green's addition does little to threaten Grant's job security; the starting job belongs to Ryan Grant until someone is added to the roster that can compete for the position.

While it might be remiss to dismiss Grant's 2007 campaign, I contend that he remained the starter simply because nobody else was good enough to take his place. Brett Favre's 2007 season was as stellar as it was unexpected; defenses had to focus more on the pass, thus opening up running lanes. Almost anybody could have put up decent numbers on that offense so long as they could run without getting winded.

While the story of the undrafted Notre Dame product breaking onto the scene is a popular one, players don't (or at least shouldn't) get paid based on backstory. They get paid for performance; sometimes past, but more often projected. Ryan Grant's major payday during the summer of 2007 was somewhat understated compared to the media frenzy that followed the team (and still does, as we saw from Sunday). But make no mistake, Grant's new contract was based more on the past and less on the future.

From a PR standpoint, I understand why they gave Grant his money. With all the tension pervading the Green Bay fanbase before the 2008 season, the organization needed to do something that the fans could agree upon. What better way to ease that pressure than to extend the contract of a player who had just gained nearly 1,000 yards in half a season? But from a talent and, more importantly, a projected performance standpoint, I think Grant is vastly overpaid.

Let me be clear that I like Ryan Grant and want him on the team. However, I don't think he is being properly used in the offense and the offense is being held back as a result.

Obviously, there's no way I can make these claims without at least attempting to back them up with factual evidence. Therefore, I submit Exhibit A: Ryan Grant's career statistics, supplied by NFL.com. NFL.com has a wonderful feature called "Situational Stats" that breaks down a player's numbers by more in-depth metrics than just per-game or per-carry. These different metrics really show what kind of running back Grant is and why he's being mis-used.

* * *

The first one is dividing Grant's production by the number of attempts he receives. NFL running backs typically carry the ball 20 times in a game. The best way to break down a running back's production is to look at how many yards he gains on attempts 1 through 10, then how much he gains on 11 through 20, and finally anything above carry number 21.

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
1-10	352	1624	4.6	9
11-20	241	992	4.1	8
21+	75	298	4.0	1

As you can see, Grant's numbers start to take a dip once he gets past his tenth carry in a given game. While I like to see coaches stick with the run throughout a game in order to get the back into a rhythm, Grant hasn't demonstrated the ability to maintain a consistent ability to get yards as the game wears on. Another way to show this is to divide Grant's yardage totals by his career number of games.

Carries	Yards per game
1-10	46.4
11-20	28.3
21+	8.5

No wonder Mike McCarthy doesn't stick with the run. Anytime Grant carries more than ten times, his yards gained for the second decuplet of carries is halved. Halved! For a back who's known for explosive gains throughout a game, it sure seems like he can't do much after his tenth attempt.

* * *

The second metric is simpler: it compares Ryan Grant's numbers in the first and second halves of games. While it's more rudimentary, it better shows how consistent (or inconsistent) a back is throughout a game.

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
1st Half	367	1634	4.5	15
2nd Half	300	1278	4.3	3

Surprisingly, this breakdown doesn't show as big of a drop off in any category besides touchdowns. He has fewer yards on fewer carries in the second half, which might be a result of the trailing team focusing more on the pass to ignite the offense. By dividing his totals by his total number of games, however, the discrepancy is a bit more visible.

	Attempts/game	Yards/game
1st Half	10.8	48.1
2nd Half	8.8	37.6

The carries per half are nearly even, but the yardage is not. Again, this might be a result of the Packers being forced into passing on offense, but conventional wisdom suggests that there would be more available on the ground. Grant has not found that room in the second half, even though he's getting the same opportunities.

* * *

The third metric is not available directly on NFL.com, but I went and dug up the stats from each individual box score from 2007, 2008, and 2009 to compile the numbers. I don't have an official name for it yet, but it measures Grant's production based on what percentage of the team's carries he is responsible for. I tried to quantify how well Grant performed when he received a minority of the carries (< 50%), a significant share (51-74%), and a majority (>75%).

% of team carries	Games	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
< 50%	5	36	215	6.0	1
51-74%	14	247	1118	4.5	6
> 75%	16	345	1351	3.9	8

While the discrepancies in sample sizes skews the numbers somewhat, it's clear that whenever Grant is more responsible for the rushing offense, he is less effective. Workhorse backs often produce the best whenever they get the bulk of the carries from their offense, and that's how Grant has been treated. However, the numbers simply don't support the notion that Grant needs a large amount of touches to be effective. This is more obvious when you divide the statistical totals by the number of games played.

% of team carries	Games	Attempts/game	Yards/game	Average/game	TDs/game
< 50%	5	7.2	43.0	6.0	0.2
51-74%	14	19.0	86.0	4.5	0.5
> 75%	16	21.6	84.4	3.9	0.5

As you can see, whenever Grant's carries push him into the third category of team carry %, he actually gains fewer yards per game despite the additional opportunities. Conversely, whenever Grant gets minimal opportunities, he seems to do the most with them. He gains yards more efficiently with fewer carries, and he clearly starts to wear down after his twentieth attempt.

* * *

I'm no statistician, but even I'm shocked at how much the numbers back the argument. Ryan Grant simply isn't consistent enough to be the running back that McCarthy wants him to be. Is he effective? In certain situations, yes. But I don't think that he should be a 20+ carry workhorse; he simply isn't that kind of player.

Ted Simmons Speed Camp said it best in response to the question "What happened to Ryan Grant?"

The rest of the league realized he's really a complimentary back.

Shortly thereafter, ktenreb summed up Ryan Grant's football career, how he arrived in Green Bay, why he succeeded, and the circumstances that led to his big payday:

He was a part-time starter in college on a bad Notre Dame team. TT’s plan for finding a f3eature running didn’t work (surprise!), and so at the beginning of the 2007 season it looked like the team needed some depth. TT spent a 6th round pick for what he assumed would be a third-string back who had decent hands (yes, he actually did). Jacobs didn’t work out, Wynne got hurt and lacked toughness, so Grant got his shot. His timing couldn’t have been better, because by that point of the season McCarthy and Favre had abandoned any chance of running the ball (remember, we were so bad on the O-line that we were playing with a gimmick zone-blocking scheme, to cover the lack of talent) and were killing opposing defenses with a 5 WR formation. Defenses adjusted by dropping 5 and 6 into coverage in nickel and dime defenses — against those defenses, Grant was able to run. He killed opposing defenses, and when they countered with putting more men in the box, Favre went back to killing them with slants.

After that season, Grant was a hot commodity to fans, but "real" GMs knew that it was a fluke. In fairness, Thompson knew it too, but he still stubbornly sat on his hands and took no steps to bring in a truly first-rate running back. Grant held out, and Thompson ultimately was forced to give him the big payday.

During that same summer, there was something about a quarterback/GM feud in Packerland that also was prominent, the result being that the quarterback who could run the 5 WR sets was no longer around. As the season began, Grant was not 100 percent healthy as a result of his contract holdout. He seemed to get healthier as the season progressed, and he gained over 1,000 yards, but it was pretty clear that he did not have the vision that first-rate running backs possess. Still, he was the best option on the roster and he got his carries, but at the rate of under four yards-per.

This year is the same as last year, except that Grant doesn’t have an injury excuse (at least not that I know of). The offensive line has regressed from last year, but Grant still does not show that he is truly a feature back. That was the knock against him in college, and that’s why the Giants were happy to dump him for a 6th round pick. 2007 was a fluke occasioned by a perfect storm of opportunity. It won’t happen again, and Ryan Grant is not going to turn into a genuine feature back in the NFL (unless he plays a very bad team with horrible injuries at a time when its roster is decimated by the flu).

That, my friends, is a great comment that should have been turned into a FanPost. But is he right?

For what it's worth, I think so. I think Grant can be very effective as a member of a committee, instead of a lone workhorse. Remember how the Giants used Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward with great success? That's the type of setup I'd like to see Grant in, with Brandon Jackson playing the role of the change-of-pace back. Then again, this is all assuming that the real problem isn't with Grant, but with his blocking, which is a very real possibility.

Man, the Thompson haters are going to have a field day with this one...and the sad thing is that they may have a point.