SB Nation - Nate Burleson

Missing Al Harris In The Packers' Secondary

Brandon — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:00:25 -0000

by Gene Puskar - AP

I had been surprised at how well the Green Bay Packers' pass defense had held up in the first 3 games after CB Al Harris was lost for season with a torn ACL. But then came Big Ben and his 503 yards of passing offense. What happened against Pittsburgh that didn't happen in the previous three games?

Opponents: In the first three games without Harris, they played the Lions, Ravens, and Bears. Neither the Lions or Bears can throw the ball. The Ravens have a good pass offense, but RB Ray Rice is a large part of their passing success. The Ravens' don't have a dangerous wide receiver or tight end.

The loss of Harris against the Steelers hurt in the case of WR Santonio Holmes. He was covered for most of the game by CB Charles Woodson. But in past games, if a receiver was having a big game, such as TE Vernon Davis did back in November, the Packers could adjust and cover him with Woodson. But against the Steelers, the Packers couldn't make any adjustments. Woodson had to stay on Holmes or WR Hines Ward, and they had to rely on the recently signed CB Josh Bell. The additional losses of likely dime CB Pat Lee and backup CB Will Blackmon earlier in the season have robbed this unit of its depth, and Mike McCarthy said that "changing personnel frankly is not an option."

But the Steelers also presented another unique problem: they have four very good receivers. According to Football Outsiders, Ward, Holmes and WR Mike Wallace are all ranked among the Top 30 wide receivers. Also, TE Heath Miller is ranked in the Top 10 for tight ends. That's four receivers that deserve respect, and RB Rashard Mendenhall took advantage of that respect to find himself wide open a couple of times.

I'm not even talking about playoffs. The Packers have to win their next two games and then I'll talk about the playoffs. But looking at the rest of the schedule, expect to read stories about how well the Packers' pass defense responded to the poor game in Pittsburgh. Next up is the Seahawks, who's best receiver according to Football Outsiders is WR Nate Burleson, and he's likely out for the season. The Cardinals are more of a challenge but if they at least rest WR Larry Fitzgerald, he played through a knee injury last week, then their best receiver is WR Steve Breaston at No. 26 according to FO. Those are matchups the Packers can handle with their starters.

As far as next season goes, I would love to see them draft a defensive back in the 1st round who could play at cornerback or safety, and also push CB Jarrett Bush off the roster. Then draft an offensive tackle in the 2nd round as either a successor to LT Chad Clifton, or just provide them with better depth.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks - Open Thread

John Morgan — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:45:45 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Red Bryant (79) is an exciting tools talent desperate for NFL experience. Instead Seattle activates Craig Terrill.

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Blow em out, Hawks.

H/T SSReporters:

INACTIVE: RB Louis Rankin, LB D.D. Lewis, G Mansfield Wrotto, DT Red Bryant, WR Nate Burleson, TE Cameron Morrah, DT Derek Walker.

Bucs inactives

INACTIVE: CB Derrick Roberson, DL Michael Bennett, G Shawn Murphy, T James Lee, WR Michael Clayton, WR Terrence Nunn, TE John Gilmore.

Seattle's season is over but for experience, yet Seattle refuses to play young players like Morrah, Walker and Bryant. When the season is in balance, even if only abstractly, I understand a team playing the best player.

Play the damn kids.

Why John Carlson Was Blocking Mario Williams

John Morgan — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:59:41 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

By double clutching and not executing the designed wide receiver screen, Matt Hasselbeck allowed Mario Williams to fight through John Carlson and sack Matt Hasselbeck.

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John Carlson is not yet a competent blocker, but the day he becomes one, and he will, he still won't stand a chance against Mario Williams. So why did Greg Knapp assign Carlson to block Williams? It seems awfully foolish. Even an elite blocking tight end like Jim Kleinsasser shouldn't be matched against an elite end with perhaps the best tools this side of Julius Peppers.

It's simple, really. Knapp called a designed wide receiver screen to Nate Burleson. Burleson motioned from left wide toward the left slot and then Chris Spencer snapped. Matt Hasselbeck motioned hand off to Justin Forsett and then passed to Burleson. Well, he was supposed to. Instead, Hasselbeck faked hand off, pump faked and then surveyed his one remaining option.

And was sacked. T.J. Houshmandzadeh was in the left slot and initiated contact off the snap. He drove his defender back and got him to bite on the route. He wasn't close to open. Deion Branch was on the right. He ran a "go" route that was supposed to draw the safety but didn't. Hasselbeck saw that and optioned out of the screen. And was sacked.

Nate Burleson, Mike Holmgren and John Morgan Walk into an Interview

John Morgan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:01:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Mike Holmgren will make a decision before Christmas. His choice is between the Cleveland Browns, who have expressed interest, and the Seattle Seahawks, who are assumed to be interested.

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Nate Burleson suffered a high ankle sprain during Sunday's game against the Houston Texans. Seattle initially signed Burleson to a poison pill contract comparable to Steve Hutchinson's. It was a sandbox moment for Tim Ruskell. A chance to kick down the kid's castle that had kicked down his. Seattle later restructured that contract and included a voidable year in 2010.

There's a lot to like about Burleson. If he recovers like many/most athletes post-ACL replacement, he should improve his agility into next year, and be 99% the player he was before the injury by 2010. That lost agility is conspicuous on returns, and, recently, during an end-around attempt against the Texans. Burleson lacks the ability to run angles and curves at a high speed like DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan and, once upon a time, Nate Burleson. Burleson should recover some bendy-quicks, but not enough to be re-signed.

What he'll gain back through recovery will soon thereafter be lost because of age. Burleson turns 29 August of 2010. He's hardly old, be he is old enough to be mismatched with a rebuilding team. He also isn't very good.

Burleson rewards you with flash and kills you with details. He is notorious for quitting routes, deeking blocks and alternating good grabs with maddening drops. Before Greg Knapp, Burleson was an overpriced second receiver poorly fit to Mike Holmgren's system. Burleson appears better fit to Knapp's looser style, but he isn't producing at a much higher level. Despite an increase in targets and a resulting increase in yards, Burleson is still pretty close to a league average receiver.

The short-term impact of the injury is an opening for Deion Branch and Deon Butler. Branch has been phased out this season. It is difficult to be sure if Branch is worse or just less involved. He said before the season started that his knee would never be the same. As routine as ligament replacement is in the modern NFL, some players still do not respond well to the procedure, and it's possible Branch left something on the operating table.

Butler is more interesting, both because he is younger and faster, and because he is free of the controversial origin story. He also might not be much of a prospect. He's built like DeSean Jackson but plays like Darrell Jackson, and though he is quick into and out of his short cuts, it's difficult to see Butler making a career snatching passes in traffic; taking tackles like Bobby Engram.

The other news of the day involves retired head coach Mike Holmgren. Cleveland is hosting Holmgren and attempting to entice him into taking on a head of football operations position. It's a good fit for Holmgren. The team has a young, talented offensive line, a headcase quarterback with SnapOn tools, some young defensive talent and a lot of cap space and draft picks to invest towards a rebuild. Despite inferior leadership, the Browns are closer to contention than Seattle, and farther along in their rebuild. Brady Quinn is a presumptive bust, but a young 25. Hasselbeck did not make a regular season start until he was 26. Brett Favre was having his first great season as a pro at 25. He commemorated his age-24 season with a league worst 24 picks. The idea of a quarterback guru might be farcical, but Browns owner Randy Lerner didn't earn his fortune with smart business decisions. He inherited it from his father.

Holmgren has announced he wants to decide his destination before Christmas. That puts pressure on the Seahawks organization, or is intended to. It's entirely possible Seattle has no interest in Holmgren. I do not think that Holmgren was or will be a terrible GM, but that's a pretty low standard for expectations. I still hold out hope that the Seahawks can hire the NFL's first Billy Beane-like executive. There are numerous angles a smart strategist could exploit in the NFL. A savvy, young, creative and ambitious general manager could free Seattle from the orthodox approach of systems and windows and trend-following, and build the Seahawks into next decade's Red Sox.

Shoot, I'll volunteer myself and promise a return to the playoffs by 2011. I've made a lifetime out of irreverence. I'm sure it reads as ludicrous boasting by an armchair GM, but I am equally sure an outsider not indoctrinated in the league's procedures and methods could hand some of these good old boys their ass. And though it won't be me, I do hope it is somebody, somebody that's not Bill Polian's, by way of Rich McKay, by way of Ozzie Newsome, regional scout and Director of Doing Things the Same Way They've Always Been Done.

Anatomy of a Game Changing Fumble Recovery

John Morgan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:00:07 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

A routine play punctuated by hustle made this amazing pass possible.

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I hit on the staggering consequences a dropped route and blown block can cause when Nate Burleson indirectly assisted a forced fumble by the Dallas Cowboys. Seattle hustled its way into a fumble and fumble recovery in a similar fashion this last Sunday. Fumble recovery is not luck, strictly speaking; it's just unpredictable. Luck implies a lack of skill, whereas fumble recovery is a skill, just one that is exceedingly hard to measure.

The play didn't look too exciting at the onset. Seattle broke in a nickel package against the 49ers two-tight end, power formation. David Hawthorne knifed into the backfield but lost Frank Gore when Gore followed his lead blocker left. Jordan Babineaux followed but overpursued. Bad things were about to happen. Seattle was in nickel against a run, and two of its three run stuffers, the linebacker and strong safety, were behind and out of the play. Bad things were about to happen for the 49ers.

Darryl Tapp anchored against tight end Delanie Walker and forced Gore to cut back inside. Tapp slowed Gore and ankle tackled him into and onto prostrate non-entity Craig Terrill. Terrill, through no achievement of his own, played an essential part in the play. His was the body that kept Gore from being down.

Here's where hustle gets its due: Wilson started the play just outside the tackle box and in position to be blocked by a pulling lineman. And so he was. Right tackle Adam Snyder pulled out and put a body on Pistol, but Pistol didn't quit. He went high on Snyder and yanked him aside by the shoulder pads. Back in the scrum, Babineaux recovered and punched out the fumble. Gore was attempting to wrestle his ankle free and somewhat atop Terrill. The ball bounced forward and toward no team in particular before a streaking Wilson looped into the action and recovered for 43 yards.

It was the single most important play of the game, worth 30% of win probability, worth more than Matt Hasselbeck's late strike to Deon Butler, and more than the field goal that won it. It ended a menacing looking drive by San Francisco that had advanced into Seahawks territory and flipped field position. Seattle took the lead on the ensuing drive. It wasn't the better team all game, it isn't the better team on paper, but it mustered all the character Tim Ruskell saw in it and granted him his parting wish: Win.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

15 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Max Unger in the Trenches; Josh Wilson on the Sideline

John Morgan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:49:27 -0000

It's hard enough to get a read on a corner in quarter, but when that corner subs out, it's impossible. Jordan Babineaux played left cornerback and Marcus Trufant right. Lawyer Milloy substituted for Babineaux at safety. So it was for most of the quarter. Josh Wilson made one important play, contacting Josh Morgan on a short pass on third and 10, and throwing Morgan out bounds to end the drive and stop the clock.

Unger didn't have anymore big moments during the half, but at least he was getting snaps. He single blocked twice to open the next drive. He held on both plays and on the first, finished by chucking his man right. Power, the missing component in Unger's game. He moved left with the pocket on the next play and controlled the left defensive end. Unger struck the nose tackle, lost the block, recovered and buried him on a run up the middle that went nowhere. Chris Spencer helped double the nose on Matt Hasselbeck's long pass to Nate Burleson, a pass that fell one yard short of awesome and one yard long of interception.

Unger has improved as a pull blocker. He is no longer driven back. He doesn't struggle to release or release too late. Unger pulled forward and engaged Patrick Willis, but Willis stood tall and kept the struggle in the hole. Justin Forsett ran left for five.

The 49ers blitzed on the next play, and with superior numbers and overloading the edges, caved the exterior pocket and threatened a group sack. Unger let Ray McDonald achieve a stride on him. McDonald slashed around Unger's right shoulder and towards Hasselbeck, but as the pocket warped and collapsed around him, Hasselbeck stepped forward and negated the entire rush. Unger shadowed McDonald and cleared as Hasselbeck stepped up and scrambled for 23. Moments like this remind that Seneca Wallace may have the legs, but smarts make smart quarterback scrambles.

The entire Seahawks line surged left and Spencer blew back Aubrayo Franklin. Unger never got a chance. The cutback lane tore open to the offensive right, but Julius Jones skipped the hole and hit the pile. The run went for two.

Hasselbeck pumped and scrambled himself into pressure on the next play. It was ugly all around, but Unger kept his head in it and his quarterback clean.

The drive ended with Unger reading and picking up a defensive end stunt. To his left, Michael Lewis exploded through the line untouched and forced a fumble. It was a curious play to say the least. Spencer pointed left, identifying the blitzer. Then Hasselbeck looked like he was audibling and Forsett shifted from left to right. It's the second time we've seen Forsett on the wrong side attempting to pick up a blitz. The announcers commended him for it the first time. He didn't luck into a recovery this time.

There wasn't much more of the quarter to speak of. Seattle regained possession, but managed little before running out the clock. Unger released well on the screen attempt right, but the rest of Seatle's line was AWOL. Jones slipped out of bounds for a loss of two. Unger controlled his man on another nice looking deep route by Deion Branch, but the pass sailed nowhere and luckily to no one. Unger finished with a good block on McDonald. McDonald, you might remember, owned Unger in week two.

49ers-Seahawks: Julius Jones vs. Justin Forsett

Fooch — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:30:13 -0000

I forgot to get yesterday's practice report posted yesterday afternoon, so I've posted it after the jump, along with the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator press conference transcripts. I actually wanted to use the injury report to raise an issue about the 49ers defensive challenge this Sunday. As the practice report indicates, Seahawks RB Julius Jones has been a full participant in practice the last two days. I'd imagine at worst he'll be listed as probable when the injury report is published later today.

For fantasy purposes, the folks at Rotoworld seem to think this will likely end up as some kind of time-share in the backfield. In looking at that, I'm curious if this might end up benefiting the 49ers on Sunday. For the last three weeks, former Cal RB Justin Forsett has been the #1 running back for the Seahawks. If you check out his game log, he's had two fantastic games, and one solid game in terms of receiving:

Week 10 - @ Arizona - 17 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD, 5 rec, 26 yards
Week 11 - @ Minnesota - 8 carries, 9 yards, 1 TD, 8 rec, 80 yards
Week 12 - @ St. Louis - 22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD, no receptions

And Julius Jones? He's gone over 100 yards once in nine weeks, and over 50 yards two other times.

For the 49ers this weekend, it will basically come down to containing the running game and seeing what you can get by with against TJ Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson. Does a running back by committee, or even Julius Jones as the clear #1 guy give the 49ers defense an advantage? Or does it really matter? I've read around where Jim Mora has said he'd go with the hot hand, which would seem to indicate Forsett. But what will really come of this?

After the jump, check out the injury report and the OC/DC press transcripts...

49ers
Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)

Did not Participate in Practice
DT Kentwan Balmer (shoulder)
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
S Mark Roman (not injury related)
DT Justin Smith (not injury related)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)
T Joe Staley (knee)

Limited Participation in Practice
CB Marcus Hudson (back)
RB Michael Robinson (shoulder)

Full Participation in Practice
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
WR Brandon Jones (thumb)
DT Ray McDonald (shoulder)
T Adam Snyder (shoulder)

Seahawks
Did not Participate in Practice
DE Lawrence Jackson (groin)
LB D.D. Lewis (knee)
DE Cory Redding (concussion)

Full Participation in Practice
RB Julius Jones (chest)
C Chris Spencer (thumb)

Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky
Post-Walk Thru - December 3, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On his expectations for this week:

"Every time we go into a game plan, we want to go out there and perform to the best of our abilities and come out of the game with a win. I don't care how we get it, that's what we need to do."

On what he sees in Seattle going into Sunday's game:

"I think new offensive coordinator, Greg Knapp. I think the timing and the rhythm is there that they've had when he was in Oakland. Now, they feel a little bit more comfortable with the timing and the execution with the quarterback. It's a little bit quicker pace. That's what I see."

On how the team can improve its tackling:

"I think every time that, especially in team periods, you've got guys tagging off. I think that's the most important thing, make sure they come to balance and try to get their wheels underneath them and tag the runners off. We've been preaching that all week. We have all training camp, all OTAs, all regular season. We've just got to understand that we've got to take better angles to the ball carrier and make the plays when they're there."

On S Dashon Goldson's tackling:

"I think it's a little bit of his angles coming to the ball carrier. We've just got to keep on swarming as a defense. Sometimes, if you have a missed tackle, at least you have a chance to have other guys make it. So, if we're swarming, it's always better."

On whether Goldson gets into the mindset of wanting to really crush someone:

"I think sometimes you do. If you have a bead on him and you want to go out there and try to smack him as hard as you can, sometimes you've got to break down and let the posse come. And then other times, I think you've got to take your shot. So, it depends on the play."

On how Goldson has played this year in his first year as a starter:

"Very good. It's a long season. For any player that's out there as a rookie or a second-year player or a third- or fourth-year player, the first year that you start, it's a long season and you've got to keep on trying to get better each and every week, which he has at times."

On holding opponents to field goals:

"I think, especially from last week with our offense being up, it was good to have a lead. And, going into that situation, even though they got some yardage, we stopped them in the red zone. That's one of our primary goals every year, and I think we're doing a pretty good job of that."

On LB Ahmad Brooks starting in the nickel:

"Yes, he'll be starting this week in place of [LB] Manny [Lawson]. We're giving Manny a little bit of rest, but Manny will be switching in and out with [LB] Parys [Haralson] and with Ahmad. It's like a three-man rotation in there."

On how to correct Brooks not getting off the ball as quickly:

"Just looking at the ball. I think that's the most important thing. He just needed to time up the snap a little bit better and watch the ball being snapped and take off like he normally does in practice."

On whether Brooks was looking at the ball last week:

"No, I think he was. I just think he was tentative at times."

On whether he was happy with CB Dre' Bly's first start:

"Yes, he performed very well. He's a veteran player and we're looking for him to do the same thing this week."

On whether you've seen leadership from Bly in the starting role:

"Definitely, yesterday, and hopefully today. He'll make plays. He did a little bit yesterday in practice. It's good to see a veteran guy come out and take grasp of it and really go with it. So, we're excited about it."

On whether Lawson is viewing Brooks' start as a demotion:

"I don't think so. It's a long season. I'm going to rely on everybody, especially in pass rush situations. The more guys that you have, the better off you're going to be. I don't think it's a negative at all because he'll still be in there at times as well."

On CB Nate Clements' status:

"Looking forward, I don't know exactly what his status is. You've got to talk to the trainers about that. For right now, I guess he's been doing well. He's been in the meetings since he's gotten hurt. I'm looking forward to getting him back as well."

On whether he has a date for Clements' return:

"I don't know the status of where he is right now."

Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye
Post- Walk Thru - December 3, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On the tandem of WR Michael Crabtree and RB Frank Gore on offense:

"I think that it's a continual growth of the young players that we have, the further maturation of the process of QB Alex Smith and the familiarity with the skill players that he is surrounded with. It's kind of an on the job training deal with the way it has unfolded because, as you know, a lot of those people weren't here early on when we were doing the same things that we are now doing in the games."

On the whether the change in formation and personnel can be an advantage going up against Seattle:

"I would think so based on where we have grown since the third week of the season or whenever we played them before. They cannot disregard the runner, so it gives us somewhat of an advantage that we have the contingency to take care of whatever defense they decide that they want to play."

On how WR Michael Crabtree and WR Josh Morgan complement each other:

"I think that it's an ongoing process. It's not spit-shined and polished by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that the growth has been good. I think that Michael continues to learn in every game. I think last week, even though the numbers statistically didn't bear out, Josh Morgan played his best game. I think he was sudden and fast. He is a strong player without the ball and he added on very well. I thought it was his best performance to date."

On the attributes that make WR Josh Morgan excel without the ball:

"I mean he plays all phases of the game: backside, convoy blocking, onside, or blocking when the plays are coming at him, helping the other receivers after the catch and blocking the people around him. I thought that he did a very good job of that."

On the importance of the WR blocking in the spread formation to make way for RB Frank Gore:

"Yes, it is important because you don't have a lead blocking fullback. I really don't like the term ‘spread', that a total misnomer to what we do, but you don't have a lead blocker, orwhen you're in the gun and the quarterback is taking the ball in the direct snap with a single back deal, so the wide receiver, particularly the ‘F', who plays the slot position or is the add-on guy in the 3-by-1 or 2-by-2 has to be a strong player without the ball."

On what is the actual term for the offense that resembles a spread offense:

"I guess it's the spread, I don't know. What we do is what we've been doing since I've been here. It's a formation shotgun for us. We don't have a quarterback running the spread offense in college like Tim Tebow. To me, that's what spread is and I'm not going to debate the merits of what it's called. If that's the name that's been given to it by the media then it's the spread."

On whether he prefer his offense called the shotgun:

"Yes, we just get in the ‘gun'. We're in the gun with either two backs or we're in the gun with one. We run the same offense that we ran with three wides as we run with two backs and I'd be interested what you'd call it when we put the two halfbacks in the game like we did last week. We're still in the gun- is that spread or not? I don't know."

On the offensive terminology of simply spreading out the WR in the ‘spread' formation:

"I guess. If it works, yes. I mean we opened the Chicago Bear game with [TE] Vernon Davis split out wide and two wide receivers away from him in the slot with two backs. Is that ‘spread'? I guess it's a play on words, so, ‘spread' is fine. We have fun with it inside because we don't know what that is, we just do what we do."

On what he thinks when he sees the reaction to the defense on what the 49er offense shows them:

"It's huge because he's an add-on guy and it makes a huge decision as we plan in the matchups. If they match us with their base defense, or like Tennessee chose to do and go nickel, what he brings on the field in Green Bay to the sub-personnel package of the team that we're playing or whether they stay base determines a lot about the plan going forward of what we do. We have a contingency for both, but it is a big part of what we do because he is a run-blocking tight end that has wide receivers skills. So, they have to make a decision or they, most of the time, make a decision either to stay with their base personnel, run-down personnel, or they sub and put in an extra defensive back, which gives us - as we think of it - five DBs on the field and one less run-stopping defender."

On whether Jacksonville was in base personnel most of the game:

"Jacksonville decided to play base, yes."

On whether that decision enabled Walker to be matched up on a linebacker at times:

"At times it did. It either got him on a linebacker or a safety, a down safety that's not used to playing out of the middle of the field or in the middle of the field. So, he is an important part of that, as opposed to being in 21, where it is [FB] Moran Norris."

On whether Walker can have a major impact on the game even if he's not catching passes:

"Yes, he should, particularly if they're going to play with five DBs and take one of the linebackers or down linemen out. We should have an advantage, in terms of he is masked as a run blocker against a defensive back, as opposed to a fullback blocking a linebacker."

On whether he envisioned his offense to look like this when the season started:

"I don't think I can remember as far back as September."

On the offense trying to do different things at the start of the season:

"I think the cast of characters were totally different. And, I think I said this when we started that the diversity of the offense that we install was to be able to take care of the contingencies of the defense. So, we haven't invented something here in the middle of the season that is different than what we did when we came and started. The evolution of what we've done has been based on the injuries, the changes, the personnel - all of that. But, in terms of what we are doing offensively, we didn't dream this up over the bye or start this three weeks ago. The contingencies of the offensive plan that we have in place the ability to plug in people with different abilities and different styles when it is warranted, in terms of being able to do what it is that we were trying to do, in terms of the plan."

On the offense taking a different direction than originally thought:

"You mean me personally?"

On how the offense's direction has changed:

"Yes, I would say so. I think we won three games with the offense that we started with, and we've won two with the one we're in now. So, yes, I would say we're going in a different direction."

On whether he has a good grasp on what QB Alex Smith can and cannot do:

"Yes. What happens is the feel and the flow of the play caller's purpose and understanding of where he is and where he's most comfortable through what he says or how he reacts in practice and in the install, you learn the internal feel of and you try to eliminate as much anxiety in the total plan or the calling of the game for the quarterback. That's a process that's going. I wish it was a year down the road. When we were starting, he and I, with eight months already under our belt, it would be a lot better I think because the exertion that he's shown and the way he's played, if that had been apparent in July and August, I think we'd be having a different discussion."

On what WR Michael Crabtree understands that most rookie receivers don't:

"He's a natural football player. He's a wide receiver that's a very good football player. He has a fundamental understanding of how to play football. He just happens to also have a great gift of exceptional hands, and he's learning how to become a stand-up, single, outside route runner in his maturation. But, I think the biggest thing is he has a natural intellect for the game. Instinctively, he's a good football player."

On whether RB Frank Gore can fit into a spread offense:

"I think most coaches would think Frank Gore is a pretty good fit for most offensive systems. I think the way the games have unfolded has led people to believe that he is not a part of it or he has been eliminated. You have to remember that the second half of the Green Bay game, the score was 23-3. And, in the last game that we had, the Chicago game, we were doing the same thing and he had close to 90-some yards rushing and a total offense, I don't know what it was, but Frank will still get his touches. The way that we play offense, they'll just come in a different style without a lead blocker in some cases, though we haven't totally gone away from that. Most backs and most quarterbacks relish a wide receiver complement that can unlock the box and slow the pass rush and give them some freedom to operate. I think, as we go forward, I think you'll see that happening. I would think his combined - Frank, the ball was thrown to Frank in the last game more than any other player that we have. He had 10 attempts that went toward him. The run total will complement that in terms of the touches that he has, based on the game and how the down and distance markers are turning. But, he will be very successful, in my opinion, in the offense that we're running that is being referred to as spread because it won't really change what he does. The only thing that basically is changed is he's not running into the line with a lead blocking fullback in front of him. The runs are basically the same, but they come out of a non-lead fullback arrangement."

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 2

John Morgan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:26:51 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

John Carlson, Justin Forsett, Deon Butler and Max Unger form the existing core of offensive talent that Seattle can build around. Chris Spencer, Rob Sims and Sean Locklear could be retained too. If Seattle begins its move towards the offense of the future, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player will join this core in 2010.

Browse more photos »

There is no third-year wide receiver rule and no single path a quarterback takes to competence. The Seattle Seahawks could employ any strategy this offseason and still not start a competent quarterback in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If it sticks with Matt Hasselbeck, it will commit itself to Hasselbeck's decline phase, starting him in his age 35, 36 and 37 year-old seasons. For perspective, a quarterback performs at 83.2% of total capacity at 34, but historically, that capacity drops to 76.8, 69.9 and 62.9% from 35 to 37. The Seahawks could attempt to offset that decline through building a better team.

Whoever drafts Hasselbeck's replacement, whoever that replacement is, and however that replacement is integrated into the offense, the Seahawks will most likely decline as a passing offense in 2010. Old quarterbacks lose ability in chunks. Young quarterbacks gain ability in leaps. The two cross paths sometime around an old quarterback's age 36 season and a young quarterback's age 24 season.

Hasselbeck will turn 35 next season. Seattle can retain him through the end of his contract while simultaneously adding the quarterback of the future. Hasselbeck would be the presumed starter and presumably better than his young replacement, help transition Seattle towards its future, and potentially resurrect his own career, should he desire.

That's why I dub this the "Graceful Exit Plan." Seattle could draft a quarterback in the top ten, but is less likely to with Hasselbeck under contract and costing $10 million against the cap. In the last ten drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten five times. In the last twenty drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten ten times. It's difficult to project a draft so early in the process, but it is likely Jimmy Clausen will join Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Dan LeFevour and Sean Canfield atop this year's quarterback class.

Clausen is the most likely top-ten pick. The impact of keeping Hasselbeck is that Seattle is unlikely to select a quarterback within the top ten, and therefore we will assume Clausen is unlikely, Bradford could likewise be unlikely, but the remaining five will be available. The remaining five represent the most likely pool of replacements for Hasselbeck.

Canfield's age is not publically listed, Rotoworld lists him at 108, but he is a senior now and graduated from high school early to attend spring drills. It's most likely that Canfield is 22, and like most of the rest of his class, will be a 23 to 24 year-old rookie.

It's ridiculous to discuss a quarterback prospect's upside. Every legitimate prospect is capable of making Canton or selling Cadillacs in five years. Likewise, the age guidelines presented by Pro Football Reference evidence that quarterback development is initially about experience. The greatest single delta is between age 21 and age 22, when a quarterback jumps 22.2%, and the second greatest is between 22 and 23, when a quarterback jumps 18.5%. Most 22 year old quarterbacks are rookies. All 21 year old quarterbacks rookies. After the sophomore sprint growth is more gradual.

The Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Hasselbeck is a lame duck. The media loves to pick on such situations and tease out whatever controversy possible. The ownership, management and Hasselbeck must agree to bury the subject and unite behind a common plan. That starts the day after the draft, when the team provides a unified front: Hasselbeck is the starter, but his drafted replacement, the future.

If Greg Knapp is still Seattle's offensive coordinator, Seattle's pick will most reflect his personal preferences in a quarterback. Tim Ruskell has deferred to his coaching staff, sometimes smartly, and sometimes, like when re-signing Shaun Alexander, stupidly. It will reflect Knapp's system and Ruskell's eye for talent. Let's quickly vet potential candidates.

Knapp Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

LeFevour

Canfield

Ruskell Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

Tebow could fall off Knapp's list and Canfield appear on Ruskell's. The most likely candidate is McCoy. He fits Knapp's system and passes Ruskell's standards. Tebow is the second most likely candidate and then maybe Canfield. I'll run with Tebow and McCoy, because the two are similar types and would be built around in a similar fashion.

We'll assume Seattle's spends its first overall pick on McBow. Seattle would not likely spend additional early picks on the offensive line. Knapp would protect the quarterback by moving the pocket, establishing the run and extending the short passing attack. It would want a top receiver to pair with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, replace or eventually replace Nate Burleson (2010 is voidable), grow with McBow and one day power the McSeaBow's offense. Or, should that talent be unavailable, an elite running back prospect to lead Seattle's developing committee of backs.

Knapp likes speed and Ruskell likes polish. The two might settle on Brandon LaFell. Many players are faster than Lafell, but few are more polished. Lafell does not satisfy Knapp's desire for speed, but he can be a deep threat. He's a big player, known for his blocking ability, that passes Ruskell's standards and can fit within Knapp's system.

If Seattle retains or re-signs Burleson, or postpones its need at wide receiver, it could address its defense or add a running back. The one thing it will not likely do is invest heavily into its offensive line. Another GM might.

Seattle will face a difficult free agency before it reaches the draft. Retaining Hasselbeck means a major chunk of its salary cap is invested into a player very unlikely to contribute to its future. It could cut Patrick Kerney and Walter Jones, either, but it would be hard pressed to retain all three. It must cut someone or be dragged down by sunk cost.

That period will determine who Seattle targets in the draft, but skill position and defense should populate their prime targets.

How it Works: Seattle's coaching staff and executives buy themselves a stay of execution. Emphasis is on the future and Seattle's existing offense is culled for talent. One of Chris Spencer and Rob Sims will join Deon Butler, Max Unger, Justin Forsett, John Carlson, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player to form Seattle's offensive core going forward.

McBow starts for most of the preseason and subs if Hasselbeck is injured or grossly ineffective. Hasselbeck endures his victory lap with statesman-like aplomb and tutors his young understudy, to whatever undetermined effect. Seattle is not a true contender in 2010, but it could contend for the NFC West. The defense gels and Seattle's young offense shows flashes.

How it Fails: If Seattle cannot sooth Hasselbeck but feels compelled to retain him, it will struggle to keep the media hounds at bay. Management accepts 2010 as a season spent towards its future, but the media exploits the fanbase's impatience, growing dissatisfaction and entitlement, and not so subtly splits the franchise between Hasselbeck and management; The past and the future; winning and the losing it takes to win again.

McBow struggles in the preseason and is stuck behind Mike Teel or Seneca Wallace on Seattle's depth chart. The offense, built to be cheap and good, versus expensive and dominating, like the Seahawks of yore, is cheap and bad. The defense does not pick up the slack. The Seahawks spiral towards their third straight losing season, a little older, and further wedged between a full rebuild and mediocrity.

So 'Housh' Laughing Now?

ericj69 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:27:05 -0000

More photos » by Ross Franklin - AP

"Dear God, please forgive me for choosing location and money over success and achievement. But I beg of you, can we never wear the neon-snot green jerseys again? We're already 3-6, isn't that punishment enough?"

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Good morning class. Today's word is schadenfreude. Can you say "schadenfreude"? (SHAH-den-froy-duh). Good!

Wikipedia, the Web-based bastion of infallible truth, defines schadenfreude as "pleasure derived from the misfortune of others."

You better believe that I'm currently enjoying a heaping spoonful of our word of the day when it comes to one Touraj Houshmandzadeh, Jr., better known as Seahawks wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

My, how far we have come since early March. After Housh spent a couple of days toying with our emotions and eating free meals from our fanciest downtown steakhouses, he bolted for greener pastures. And by "greener", I mean this kind of green and this kind of green.

(Don't worry, I'll give you time to let your pupils readjust after seeing those neon-snot green monstrosities. You good? OK, let's continue.)

In the end, you can't blame a professional athlete for choosing a team that's offering more money and that's closer to home. But after it happened, Vikings fans were pretty bummed out about it. Take a look at my article and Gonzo's article--we were downright bitter and depressed. I even called T.J. a childish name (Housh-bag), which is totally out of character for me! (OK fine, so it isn't out of character. You got me.)

Now fast-forward to Week 11 of the 2009 NFL season. The Vikings are three games clear in the NFC North at 8-1. The Seahawks are three games behind the Arizona Cardinals at 3-6. Does all of this have to do with which team Houshmandzadeh joined? Of course not. But as Judd Zulgad intimated so well in his article earlier this week in the Star Tribune, Housh probably did the Vikings a favor by taking the money. If T.J. decided to set up shop in the Twin Cities, there's no way Minnesota drafts Percy Harvin, the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors. We probably would have taken someone like Michael Oher, who is doing just fine in Baltimore, but is he really doing much more than Phil Loadholt? Doubt it. I think Housh's decision set up the best possible draft for the Vikings, and it shows on the field this year.

When Houshandzadeh was with the Bengals, everyone assumed that he was he was the one good apple in a bushel of rotten ones. Popular opinion held that Housh just wanted to win, while teammates like Chad Ochocinco were more interested in jackassery. But after seeing Cincinnati flourish without him and T.J. already driving the waaahhhhhmbulance in Seattle, I'm not so sure.

But enough about Whosyourmomma--who's going to win on Sunday?

(More analysis and my Week 11 NFL picks after the jump.)

I sort of feel bad for Seattle lately. They had their basketball team ripped from the city by a greedy, heartless owner. Their baseball team has a huge payroll, but they haven't made the playoffs since 2001. It rains a lot. They're overpopulated with coffee-snob hipsters. And for the past two years, the injury report for their football team has been more crowded than the new Cowboys' Stadium "party plaza" on opening night.

I truly believe the Seahawks are a solid team, but they just can't stay healthy. Matt Hasselbeck is a great quarterback when he isn't fracturing various body parts. Their defense is solid when they aren't forced to start third stringers. Heck, even our old pal Nate Burleson has some good games from time to time. (But I'm still keeping Steve Hutchinson out of that poison pill battle, thankyouverymuch.)

That said, as it stands right now, I don't think even a solid, full-strength Seattle squad could beat this Vikings team in the Metrodome right now. The Vikings haven't actually put many complete games together this year, but the embarrassment of weapons they have always seem to do enough to win. I can see the 'Hawks keeping it close at first, but eventually a big play by one of our studs will break the game open. The only question is who will it be? A deep pass from Brett Favre to Sidney Rice? A huge kick return by Percy Harvin? A strip-sack by Jared Allen? A big play in the secondary from Antoine Winfield, who's slated to return on Sunday? A "no f---ing way did he just do that" run by Purple Jesus?

When you're asking who's going to make the big play rather than if you're going to make a big play, it's a good thing. Sorry Seattle. But hey, I hear Pearl Jam's new album is pretty good!

Prediction: Vikings 33, Seahawks 17

Here's the rest of my Week 11 NFL picks (home team in CAPS):

PANTHERS over Dolphins: I originally had the Fins here, but Ronnie Brown's injury really hurts them. You're high if you think Ricky Williams can smoke the defense by himself. Maybe if this was 2004, when Ricky was used to smoking all sorts of things by himself. Either way, I think the Panthers will be able to avoid passing more than Miami...because you do NOT want either of these teams passing very often.

RAVENS over Colts: I know, this pick doesn't make much sense, and I said I wouldn't go against the Colts or Saints until they lost. But the spread for this game opened as a pick 'em. How can a 9-0 team not be favored against a 5-4 team coming off a short week? I have no idea, but Vegas sure does. I'm going with Vegas on this one.

COWBOYS over Redskins: How can a coach of a 6-3 team be on the hot seat? Just take a look at the lowlights from the sh*t sandwich that Dallas turned in last week at Green Bay. One garbage time touchdown against a team that gave up 38 points to Tampa the week before?! I'm still going with the Cowboys here because Dan Snyder's Redskins obviously enjoy eating sh*t sandwiches.

LIONS over Browns: That's right boys and girls, the Lions have been favored TWICE this year!! Break out the champagne and confetti! Hopefully they don't screw this up again, like when they were favored against the Rams and handed them their only win of the season thus far. As for the Browns...if you ever watch "The Soup", this is the part where they'd show the Billy Bush clip simply saying "It's gross."

PACKERS over 49ers: Meh, who cares. We're 3-0 this season against these two piles of suck anyway.

JAGUARS over Bills: Congratulations to everyone who had Dick Jauron in their "first coach fired" pool. What I don't get is why Jauron said he was surprised. That's like being surprised that the serial killer that lived in your building was a "quiet guy that usually kept to himself".

Steelers over CHIEFS: The Steelers should really be concerned about their lack of pass protection. Luckily for Pittsburgh, the Chiefs have absolutely no semblance of a pass rush.

GIANTS over Falcons: No way the Giants lose coming off a bye week against a Turner-less Atlanta team. But if I'm wrong, let's hope Fox shows a ton of what my girlfriend likes to call the Eli Manning "Stupid Face":

The Eli Manning "Stupid Face". Making my girlfriend giggle since 2007.

Saints over BUCCANEERS: I feel a big "Oh really, you were concerned about me turning the ball over and putting up mediocre numbers the past few weeks? How's 400 yards and 4 TDs sound?" game from Drew Brees. Not like the Bucs can do much to stop Brees if he wants to have one of those games. (Please Drew, my 6-4 fantasy team on the edge of playoff contention implores you!)

Cardinals over RAMS: Another NFC West "thriller". Can you imagine the numbers Stephen Jackson would be putting up on even a mediocre team? He's having an outstanding year, and his team has to abandon the run by halftime most games. Speaking of Arizona, our buddy ArizonaVikingsFan sent me a nice Vikings picture he'd like posted. Apparently it's a "friend of a friend" of his on Facebook. Well AVF, you asked, and you shall receive:

Proof that the commenters make this site better. Thanks AVF!

Chargers over BRONCOS: That's nice that Denver is giving up their huge division lead to the Chargers earlier this year. Less stressful for both sides, don't you think? By the way, Kyle Orton got hurt the first game after he shaved his neckbeard. That was NOT a coincidence. Kyle, grow it back or suffer the consequences!

PATRIOTS over Jets: Oh you poor Jets. You're going to be the latest victim of a classic Bill Belichick "Eff You" game. The Titans will think they got off easy earlier this year. The Patriots might go for it on every fourth down and go for every two point conversion on Sunday. Then in the press conference, Belichick will say "how about you critics go suck on that" in his always-monotone voice and just walk off the stage.

Bengals over RAIDERS: Cincy's next 3 games: at Oakland, then home against Cleveland and Detroit. Are you ready for a world where the Bengals are 10-2? I know I'm not. Maybe "2012" should have been called "2009", because this is surely a sign of the apocalypse.

Eagles over BEARS: I wish the Bears could play every game on national television. They're 0-3 this year with everyone watching, and Jay Cutler has thrown ELEVEN interceptions in those three games. So um, yeah, I'm not going to pick the Bears here on a Sunday night game, regardless of how bad Philly has looked the past couple weeks.

Titans over TEXANS: Simple steps to victory for Tennessee: 1) Hand off to Chris Johnson. A lot. 2) When not handing off to Chris Johnson, throw to him in the flat. 3) Repeat steps 1 and 2 until time has expired.

Last week: 10-5

Season so far: 100-44