SB Nation - Matt Hasselbeck

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Seattle Seahawks Sleep through First Possession; Forfeit Game

John Morgan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:34:35 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

Marcus Trufant blew coverage and Jordan Babineaux took a bad angle of pursuit, but Andre Johnson scored because Gary Kubiak saw a tendency in Seattle's coverage and exploited it to game-winning effect.

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I am profiling Aaron Curry this week, but between Curry posts, I want to talk a bit about the Seahawks in general. Seattle allowed a touchdown on the first play of the game. The Texans quick-snapped Seattle and Andre Johnson burned Marcus Trufant up the right sideline for an easy score. The quick snap made the play. Johnson was able to get around and past Trufant off the snap, and though Trufant didn't lose ground chasing Johnson, it didn't matter because he was already beat. Jordan Babineaux should have adjusted his angle to intercept Johnson, but even if he could have, the damage was mostly done. The Texans out game planned Seattle and left the Seahawks defensive brain trust looking like a big bag of DeHaven.

Seattle, continuing a season long trend, played awful football in the first set of possessions. Before he burned Trufant, Johnson pointed up and out, indicating "streak" to Matt Schaub. The Texans exploited a simple wrinkle to storm out to an early and pivotal lead*.

The Seahawks countered with no plan at all. Sean Locklear stood, protecting uncontested space as two defenders streaked off left end. Brian Cushing smashed Matt Hasselbeck before he could set. Moments like this inspire a "what the fuck?" reaction from fans. Beyond play calling, challenges and clock management, we most tangibly perceive the impact of coaches in the precision or sloppiness of the team. Seattle was playing rec football against a professional team. Whether Locklear was standing clueless because of poor discipline, poor coaching, zone blocking or a basic inability by the Seahawks to read and adjust to blitzes, the coaches, and especially Greg Knapp, own this failure.

Ray Willis jumped on second and pushed Seattle back five yards.

The next snap reached Hasselbeck cleanly, but he couldn't control the football, and, attempting to swing his body and hand off from his fingertips, he dropped the precariously held football. I watched that snap several times, and nothing looked abnormal until it reached Hasselbeck. That play set Seattle back another two yards. Seattle was lucky to recover it at all.

Seattle punted on third down. Excuse me, it ran a draw to Justin Forsett for seven. Seattle punted on fourth down. It gave up on third down.

If you are curious what that looks like in terms of win probability, behold:

Seattle's coaches, through the sheer force of their lack of preparation, schemes (like zone blocking), lack of discipline and conservative play calling on third down, had reduced Seattle's chances of winning to 23%. If someone wants to tell you that Seattle is not talented and couldn't have hoped to compete with Houston, go ahead and show them this graph. Seattle's talent must of been in the John when God was handing out coaches. This wasn't Curry being dirty, or Spencer being a simp, this was a team with a plan exploiting a team without a clue.

Jim Mora promised to take the next two days to scrutinize the offensive line. Well, Mr. Mora, I will take the next five days to scrutinize you. We might need to make some changes.

*Johnson said this about the touchdown: "Coming into the game we knew that their cornerbacks like to sit on routes," Johnson said. "So we were hoping that they would give us the coverage we were looking for, and they did."

Given Seattle's quarterback situation and that the Texans were playing at home, the impact of falling behind by a touchdown is actually underestimated by win probability. After two minutes of elapsed game clock, Seattle had almost already lost the game.

Seahawks Humiliated on the Road; Deliver Signature Loss of the 2009 Season

John Morgan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I am pretty sure George Walker Bush busted coverage on a few plays. Fire him. Fire EVERYBODY!

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If ever a time for finger pointing and easy answers existed, it is now. I could attack the character, play and talent of about any Seahawk and score. We don't know exactly how Seattle failed, but we all certainly saw someone in blue fail and that, that guy, is the problem. Panic loves a demagogue and I've the rich pipes to shout orders at the assembling mob. To Renton!

The coaches! We can be sure they're dumb.

The line! Sucked like an Oreck.

Matt Hasselbeck! Boy that guy's done!

The Seattle Seahawks were 4-12 last season. They are now 5-8. They should win against Tampa, and since we're talking "shoulds", they should finish the season 6-10. That is a reasonable step forward for the 2008 Seattle Seahawks. The 2008 Seattle Seahawks were one of the five worst teams in football. The 2009 Seattle Seahawks are one of the ten worst teams in football. And when a bad team, with a suspect line, conservative playbook and aged quarterback gets behind early on the road, it has no answer. It is not one player's fault, but a complete team failure.

That Julius Jones! What a jobber.

And Housh! An overpaid primadonna!

I hope that is sufficient aperitif for everyone's hunger for blame.

Here are some sure to be unpopular observations.

Josh Wilson ran down the field and tipped away a deep pass. That was an exciting display of man cover for the kid and a small, small-small step towards realizing his potential. Wilson might settle at nickel and he is already a fine situational defensive back, but there's room for Pistol to develop into a Antoine Winfield type corner.

Deon Butler can own the short pattern. He's smooth into and out of his cuts and the rare receiver capable of quick acceleration and long-stride speed. Butler must be embraced as a receiver rather than a forty time. From the time he was drafted, Seattle has mismanaged his talent: Wasting time and development, not to mention risking injury, auditioning him as a returner; Sending him streaking up the sideline without a quarterback that could target him; seeing him as a deep receiver because of one attribute and missing his true profile as an underneath burner.

The defense kept its pride even after being handed its ass. Seattle forced two big turnovers that quickly dissolved into nothing, but were clean, meaningful turnovers. Seahawks fans are done thinking this is an elite unit, and with ample reason, but it is young, it is mostly cheap and it is worth picking apart and finding value within. Whether Seattle needs a complete rebuild or not is mootable. I see young talent growing within an otherwise crumbling team.

The team is crumbling. Today a pillar broke off and landed on the Seahawks coaching staff. I like Gus Bradley, Greg Knapp and Dan Quinn. I think all three have a future in this league, but probably not together. I can't see Jim Mora escaping such an embarrassing loss. It was always unlikely Mora would stay. New general managers want their guy. I will not look back at Mora and feel contempt, but he has not earned much respect in his short time here. Fiery is fine. I see desperation. The look of a man that thinks he can yell his way out of failure.

This loss hurt through the first half and settled in the second. Now I don't feel it all. A better team, at home, that matches strength against many of Seattle's weaknesses, playing from well ahead from the first quarter on...

And it won't matter a damn in a month. The Seahawks live beyond the players, coaches and fans. Suck as today sucks, and this sucks, Seattle will rise again. And someday, that good coverage down field by Wilson, the rollicking tiny power presence of Justin Forsett, that force of nature hitting by Aaron Curry, will matter again. Just not today. Or soon. Or even next year, probably.

Game ball: Brandon Mebane was stuck behind Chuck Darby not too long ago. Back then, I was sure to point out Darby's missteps and Mebane's potential. He finally got his shot when Darby was lost to injury and has been nothing but special ever since. He is, accounting for position, Seattle's best pass rusher. He is clearly Seattle's best run stuffer.

Mebane is the rare defensive lineman that bunches double teams and brutalizes them if the quarterback double-clutches. He sticks-out when he's in and even more when he's out. A dozen players on the current roster would be lucky to make the next winning team, but make one Brandon Mebane. Kid was playing for a good team, he would be bashing backs and sacking quarterbacks towards his second Pro Bowl.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 3

John Morgan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

In which Seattle signs Jason Campbell to outperform Matt Hasselbeck and maybe he does.

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I hope Mike Holmgren signs with Cleveland. I have selfish interest, namely Seattle not re-signing Holmgren, but I have more noble interests as well. Cleveland has one of the youngest, most talented offensive lines in the NFL. It starts Joe Thomas at left tackle, Eric Steinbach at left guard and Alex Mack at center. Right guard Hank Fraley and right tackle John St. Clair are interchangeable organizational soldier types. It doesn't have great skill position talent, but that's where Holmgren shines. He finds scheme appropriate players that can excel behind a dominant offensive line. Holmgren is also an expert at developing young quarterbacks.

Why start with a tangent? In this scenario, Seattle ditches Matt Hasselbeck and signs free agent Jason Campbell. Tim Ruskell is out and his departure hints at a potential rebuild, but if Seattle can win some down the stretch, and especially if Seattle can win some down the stretch because of its Ruskell built defense, the Seahawks might adapt certain Ruskell ideals even without Ruskell.

Ruskell was risk adverse. He had a narrow definition of "his guy". His aversion to risk may have served him well, but his narrow definition did not. Consider Deon Butler. Ruskell traded into the third round to select Butler because Butler was "his guy". Butler dripped Ruskell: Four-year starter at a major conference powerhouse, undersized but fast, coachable, hard working and quietly productive. Ruskell conflated "his guy" with risk aversion and overpaid for a risky player. Despite his track record and accolades, Butler could bust because he is overmatched by NFL competition.

Ruskell spent big to get his guy, but his guy was never less risky than Juaquin Iglesias, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie or Johnny Knox - the six receivers selected after Butler. And only Iglesias has underperformed Butler. Ruskell projected his internal bias on the players he drafted. It rarely conflicted with his risk aversion, but when it did, it often spelled failure.

Campbell is a prime target for any risk adverse general manager. His connections to Auburn's unbeaten season might have spoken to Ruskell's personal bias, but his standing as a young, established NFL quarterback speaks to rational roster construction. Campbell has the tools of an NFL quarterback - arm strength, size, mobility - and those tools are NFL tested. He has adapted to multiple playbooks and played near league average football on some very poorly constructed offenses. As we've seen in Chicago and Denver, the quarterback may be the center and most essential part of any NFL offense, but it is not more important than the other ten men that take the field.

This Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Seattle trades or cuts Hasselbeck. It wishes him well, gives lip service to rebuilding and is satisfied to see him sign with Cleveland. Hasselbeck joins muscle milk buddy Brady Quinn and assumes the Trent Dilfer role.

Walter Jones retires.

Seattle cuts Patrick Kerney, Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace.

That gives the Seahawks money to burn. Seattle signs Campbell to a frontloaded contract with a third-year buyout clause. Campbell is playing through the last year of his rookie contract and though he's rich, he's not quarterback rich. Seattle buys maneuverability and Campbell's services by stacking his 2010 salary with zeroes.

Seattle could still be a player in free agency after signing Campbell. It will attempt to fill holes and free itself to draft best available talent throughout the draft.

Signing Campbell and cutting dead weight frees Seattle to make a big splash in the NFL draft. It has money to afford another early first round prospect and the picks to trade up. It could take a centerpiece player on defense like Ndamukong Suh. By releasing Hasselbeck and signing Campbell, the burden falls off the offense. Seattle buys itself time. If Campbell struggles in Seattle's still wrecked 2010 offense, he's young and can be released. Campbell has a bad reputation. He hasn't earned Seahawks fan loyalty and we are unlikely to experience the same kind of revulsion and outrage watching him battered to bones as we do watching Hasselbeck torn asunder.

Campbell is signed as a stopgap+. The Seahawks compliment the signing with a project quarterback selected sometime in 2010's epic quarterback draft. A looming correction to the onerous rookie pay scale is encouraging players to declare, and while the draft lacks a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning, it might be the deepest quarterback draft in modern history. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Sean Canfield, Ryan Mallett, Dan LeFevour, Pat Devlin and Tony Pike will all likely fall deep into the second day. Seattle will have an established starter for 2010 to test its system and offense, and a talented young quarterback developing behind the scenes.

How it works: Seattle successfully moves into the top of the draft and selects a once in a generation defensive talent. That helps push Seattle's cheap, young and talented, but by no means dominant, defense from potential to production. The team is not a contender again in 2010, but it's close.

Campbell outperforms Hasselbeck. He's younger and healthier and continues to play like a league average quarterback. Campbell could also breakout. Seattle is set for either possibility. It builds its offense towards the future by continuing Ruskell's habit of drafting late and mid-round offensive talent and seeing who shakes out. The major rebuild will wait until next offseason. 2010 is about seeing what they have and what they need, something a diminished Hasselbeck has made difficult to impossible this season.

The young defense provides excitement and gives the team a direction and identity. Campbell's arm opens the run game and Seattle executes the grind and smother attack Jim Mora and Greg Knapp seek. The team takes a flier on another young back (or two) and someone sticks, filling out a balanced and productive if unspectacular committee of backs. It's Ground Chuck all over again.

How it fails: Seattle cuts Hasselbeck but doesn't sign Campbell, or Seattle retains Hasselbeck and projects to have one of the worst offenses in football in 2010, or Seattle signs Campbell but Campbell performs no better than Hasselbeck and Seattle's young quarterback is prematurely forced into action. The meat of this is that Seattle does not spend enough on its offense and that offense again undermines the defense.

Contrarily, the defense never steps up. It continues to stifle the run but still cannot stop the pass. Seattle's defensive savior is a rookie and like Aaron Curry, more potential than player. The defense is average, but no better and as the offense putters towards the bottom of the league, the not-good-enough defense shoulders the consequences. Seattle changes the face of its failures but not its failures and what little can be salvaged from Ruskell's roster is older, more expensive and closer to free agency. Campbell is signed to stave off a full rebuild and does. He plays two seasons of league average football and is cleared when Seattle must clean house in 2012.

Anatomy of a Game Changing Fumble Recovery

John Morgan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:00:07 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

A routine play punctuated by hustle made this amazing pass possible.

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I hit on the staggering consequences a dropped route and blown block can cause when Nate Burleson indirectly assisted a forced fumble by the Dallas Cowboys. Seattle hustled its way into a fumble and fumble recovery in a similar fashion this last Sunday. Fumble recovery is not luck, strictly speaking; it's just unpredictable. Luck implies a lack of skill, whereas fumble recovery is a skill, just one that is exceedingly hard to measure.

The play didn't look too exciting at the onset. Seattle broke in a nickel package against the 49ers two-tight end, power formation. David Hawthorne knifed into the backfield but lost Frank Gore when Gore followed his lead blocker left. Jordan Babineaux followed but overpursued. Bad things were about to happen. Seattle was in nickel against a run, and two of its three run stuffers, the linebacker and strong safety, were behind and out of the play. Bad things were about to happen for the 49ers.

Darryl Tapp anchored against tight end Delanie Walker and forced Gore to cut back inside. Tapp slowed Gore and ankle tackled him into and onto prostrate non-entity Craig Terrill. Terrill, through no achievement of his own, played an essential part in the play. His was the body that kept Gore from being down.

Here's where hustle gets its due: Wilson started the play just outside the tackle box and in position to be blocked by a pulling lineman. And so he was. Right tackle Adam Snyder pulled out and put a body on Pistol, but Pistol didn't quit. He went high on Snyder and yanked him aside by the shoulder pads. Back in the scrum, Babineaux recovered and punched out the fumble. Gore was attempting to wrestle his ankle free and somewhat atop Terrill. The ball bounced forward and toward no team in particular before a streaking Wilson looped into the action and recovered for 43 yards.

It was the single most important play of the game, worth 30% of win probability, worth more than Matt Hasselbeck's late strike to Deon Butler, and more than the field goal that won it. It ended a menacing looking drive by San Francisco that had advanced into Seahawks territory and flipped field position. Seattle took the lead on the ensuing drive. It wasn't the better team all game, it isn't the better team on paper, but it mustered all the character Tim Ruskell saw in it and granted him his parting wish: Win.

One Right Guard's Journey Towards Respectability

John Morgan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:51:14 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

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Part of being a consistent contender is team health. Abstractly we can understand that for most teams, the starters will play better than their backups. When a team loses starters to injury it is less likely to win. What is much less understood is how game-to-game, even snap-to-snap health impacts players that are starting or contributing.

Ray McDonald was fully healthy in week two. He walked over Max Unger. McDonald was "probable" last week. He was listed with a "shoulder". Could that shoulder have sapped enough power to level the competition? Unger, much to his credit, has not appeared once on the NFL injury report.

Maybe Unger improved, maybe McDonald regressed, maybe McDonald was injured, maybe home field factored and Unger was faster off the snap or more willing to stretch the rules. It's impossible to know. We can be sure that Unger played better and his improved play was vital to Seattle winning.

In the first drive of the fourth quarter, Unger pulled twice and factored once. On his second pull attempt, Unger missed his assignment and that assignment, linebacker Takeo Spikes, tackled Julius Jones after six. Matt Hasselbeck ended the drive by attempting to pull out from the pile again and doing so again sacked himself by running into a defender.

Unger was the best man on the line at holding ground and protecting the pocket on Seattle's first play of its second drive. He then turned his man on a rush play and contained his man on the following pass play. That turned out to be pretty damn important in the interconnected world of Football.

For most of the season, Chris Spencer protected Unger. If a man was aligned over Unger, Spencer would typically turn right and double the defender. Rob Sims was the reliable guard. He was left to fend for himself. Unger proved capable of controlling his man and that allowed Spencer to read and react. It proved critical.

Lock was badly beat around the end by Manny Lawson. Sims controlled his man and Spencer stood free in his center zone. Spencer turned that freedom into a crucial freeing block. He doubled Sims man and the two dominated him so completely that Sims was able to pull free and pick up Locklear's blown assignment. What looked like a sack turned into a fifteen yard completion.

Unger was satisfactory on his final two plays of the drive. The play that preceded those was a heartening sign. Seattle, for the nth time all game, hit the 49ers nose tackle and short-spaced down linemen and moved out the middle in impressive fashion. Moving out the middle linemen, be it nose, defensive tackles or 3-4 ends, is a harbinger of a building run game. Justin Forsett missed the hole, but it was a beauty. Behind Seattle's center three a crease ripped open that would have harbored the rusher deep into the 49ers second level. Forsett cut left and into Manny Lawson for a loss of three. John Carlson was discarded in routine fashion.

Unger was steady, steady throughout the game, steady in crunch time, and reliable enough to make those around him look better. A steady Unger makes the entire offensive line better. He started the season weak at the point and unreliable snap to snap and is ending stout at the point and forgettable on most downs. That's good progression and return on a second round guard prospect. It's also a boring end to a series.

On the first play of Seattle's second to last drive, Unger put it all together. He helped force back the 49ers left defensive line and then shot into the second level. There, just as Jones approached the right edge, Unger inflicted a punishing cut block on Patrick Willis. Jones turned and sprinted up field into the 49ers open right side. Willis wasn't there to hit him. He wasn't there to stop the play short. Willis was just another spectator, watching Jones turn the corner and run for 11.

Max Unger in the Trenches; Josh Wilson on the Sideline

John Morgan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:49:27 -0000

It's hard enough to get a read on a corner in quarter, but when that corner subs out, it's impossible. Jordan Babineaux played left cornerback and Marcus Trufant right. Lawyer Milloy substituted for Babineaux at safety. So it was for most of the quarter. Josh Wilson made one important play, contacting Josh Morgan on a short pass on third and 10, and throwing Morgan out bounds to end the drive and stop the clock.

Unger didn't have anymore big moments during the half, but at least he was getting snaps. He single blocked twice to open the next drive. He held on both plays and on the first, finished by chucking his man right. Power, the missing component in Unger's game. He moved left with the pocket on the next play and controlled the left defensive end. Unger struck the nose tackle, lost the block, recovered and buried him on a run up the middle that went nowhere. Chris Spencer helped double the nose on Matt Hasselbeck's long pass to Nate Burleson, a pass that fell one yard short of awesome and one yard long of interception.

Unger has improved as a pull blocker. He is no longer driven back. He doesn't struggle to release or release too late. Unger pulled forward and engaged Patrick Willis, but Willis stood tall and kept the struggle in the hole. Justin Forsett ran left for five.

The 49ers blitzed on the next play, and with superior numbers and overloading the edges, caved the exterior pocket and threatened a group sack. Unger let Ray McDonald achieve a stride on him. McDonald slashed around Unger's right shoulder and towards Hasselbeck, but as the pocket warped and collapsed around him, Hasselbeck stepped forward and negated the entire rush. Unger shadowed McDonald and cleared as Hasselbeck stepped up and scrambled for 23. Moments like this remind that Seneca Wallace may have the legs, but smarts make smart quarterback scrambles.

The entire Seahawks line surged left and Spencer blew back Aubrayo Franklin. Unger never got a chance. The cutback lane tore open to the offensive right, but Julius Jones skipped the hole and hit the pile. The run went for two.

Hasselbeck pumped and scrambled himself into pressure on the next play. It was ugly all around, but Unger kept his head in it and his quarterback clean.

The drive ended with Unger reading and picking up a defensive end stunt. To his left, Michael Lewis exploded through the line untouched and forced a fumble. It was a curious play to say the least. Spencer pointed left, identifying the blitzer. Then Hasselbeck looked like he was audibling and Forsett shifted from left to right. It's the second time we've seen Forsett on the wrong side attempting to pick up a blitz. The announcers commended him for it the first time. He didn't luck into a recovery this time.

There wasn't much more of the quarter to speak of. Seattle regained possession, but managed little before running out the clock. Unger released well on the screen attempt right, but the rest of Seatle's line was AWOL. Jones slipped out of bounds for a loss of two. Unger controlled his man on another nice looking deep route by Deion Branch, but the pass sailed nowhere and luckily to no one. Unger finished with a good block on McDonald. McDonald, you might remember, owned Unger in week two.

Max Unger Bullies Dre Bly as Justin Forsett Charges By

John Morgan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:14:36 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

It took a lockdown by Chris Spencer, a cut by Rob Sims and pancake by Max Unger to score Seattle's second touchdown.

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As Fox would have it, my broadcast didn't start until the second quarter. It's Seattle ball, third and one on the Seahawks 22. As fate would have it, the Seahawks drove down the field and scored to pull ahead 14-7.

Max Unger mostly did yeoman's work. He started with a modest single block. The next play he pulled out with better release than previously shown and was able to cut across the field and lead block for Julius Jones on the right. Unger ran a long way but never did block anyone. On the third play of the quarter, he single blocked the left defensive end and again held his ground. Seattle had converted two firsts on three plays and gained 26 yards.

Unger was uncovered. Chris Spencer took on the nose and Ray Willis the left defensive end. Unger pulled out and attempted to block out Takeo Spikes, but Spikes started right of center and read and reacted to the play before Unger could pull out and engage him. Spikes capped the hole and took part in the tackle of Just Forsett after a gain of one.

He put a glancing block on the nose tackle when the Seahawks line shifted left. Matt Hasselbeck rolled right and released before Unger could factor further. Hasselbeck found Burleson for eight and a new set of downs. Forsett ran behind right guard on the following play, and Unger teamed with Spencer to turn the nose guard. Seattle fought hard for three.

Finally we see Unger get beat, but unlike previous weeks, Unger wasn't beat back, discarded, thrown or knocked over. Nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin bested him off the snap, but Unger recovered, showing the tenacity he showed at Oregon, and getting stout when it mattered. Franklin pushed no further.

He double teamed the left defensive end on the next two plays. In the first, he attempted to slide off Isaac Sopoaga and block into the second level but never found his man. He held ground but didn't factor otherwise on the second play. Jones attempted a cut block on Manny Lawson, succeeded only in bouncing off Lawson, scrambled to his feet and caught Hasselbeck's outlet pass. The play went for -2.

Forsett curled, caught and unwound towards the end zone to score six and give Seattle the lead. He was in before a defender could touch him. Spencer pulled out immediately and wormed into Willis' body. Last season, Spencer slammed Willis but Willis slammed back, separating and tackling Jones after eight. This time, Spencer stayed with Willis, not attempting the knockdown block, but keeping on him, staying square and jogging the All Pro into the end zone. Sims pulled late but cut Mark Roman on a crucial backside block. Unger pulled cleanly, found Dre Bly and threw a schoolyard beatdown on the former Pro Bowler. He squared, coiled and blocked Bly into the air and onto his back. Touchdown.

Matt Hasselbeck Slings to Deon Butler for 32 and Game Winning Field Goal Range

John Morgan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:15:19 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Matt Hasselbeck's pass to Deion Branch bent like a curveball and sought like a missile.

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Matt Hasselbeck gets the game ball.

The NFL Draft is designed to assist weaker teams and create parity. Bad teams get better players and become better teams. The very worst teams can pick any player to help rebuild their franchise around. That intent has been disputed by research conducted by Massey and Thaler. Common wisdom is that rookies are overpaid and the strict salary structure punishes bad teams by awarding them potentially crippling investments.

Two things are true: High salaries in the top ten punish bad teams by increasing how much is risked. The best players are usually drafted early.

The San Francisco 49ers started eight picks selected in the top fifty: Alex Smith (1), Vernon Davis (6), Michael Crabtree (10), Patrick Willis (11), Manny Lawson (22), Joe Staley (28), David Bass (33) and Chilo Rachal (38). It took a lot of ass football to assemble that cast. If not for the 90s Niners spilling into the early 2000s, San Francisco would have a dog in the race for worst team of the new millennium.

Smith looked like a competent if unsexy quarterback. Dilfer with a better arm. He's 25.

Davis ran a 4.38 forty. Match him against Aaron Curry on a crossing route and Curry is probably going to get burned.

Crabtree is athletic and explosive and-Oh shit! Lawyer Milloy!

I won't continue fawning. My point is that Seattle beat a better team than itself today. It beat a younger team with far greater resources invested in that youth. It beat that team because the 49ers are better than Seattle, but not significantly.

Josh Wilson was the best all around cornerback playing today. He is a fiend against the wide receiver screen, aware and responsive to his surroundings like a Shaolin Monk. Wilson isn't a stride-for-stride, Asomugha-like shutdown corner. He's a zone corner, but a hell of a zone corner, and drafted to play in a zone scheme. He was supposed to be Ronde. He's supposed to bury the screen, intercept the bounce, jump the route and find the fumble and fly.

Brandon Mebane is an incredible machine. He's a backloaded piston; a battering ram shaped like candy corn. The day Mebane synced to NFL snap counts he became a great young defensive tackle. Mebane is quick, powerful and hard to block. Seattle doesn't need Suh to showcase Mebane, just someone better than Rocky Bernard, Colin Cole, Craig Terrill and the whole sick crew. Like, motile matter -- ambulatory would be an upgrade.

Jordan Babineaux is a young, cheap and functional free safety.

Tim Ruskell never did rebuild but he added some talent while the core rotted. Seattle's next GM inherits a heck of a fine position. I hope he realizes it.

. . .

Two years ago I faced the Shaun Alexander dilemma. Alexander was no longer a good running back. On his best days rushing, he was still a liability as a receiver and pass blocker. But he was beloved even by we who hated watching him. I never feared a miraculous recovery disproving all my theories. I cringed because others saw a miraculous recovery every time he rushed for five.

Hasselbeck isn't there. Quarterbacks do not fall like running backs fall. Losing a little arm strength is not like losing the first gear that got you the job. Hasselbeck can toss a nice pass when he needs. The bender over the defender to Deion Branch was indefensible pass at its best. He threw another high-arcing bomb to Branch that Branch lost behind the defender. It was pretty for a second. Real pretty.

Unlike seeing Shaun sprinting for fourteen, I never cringed seeing Hasselbeck spark to life. It was thrilling. Hasselbeck was never a great quarterback. Well, screw that. Matt Hasselbeck is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play American football. Any quarterback that's made a Pro Bowl can claim that. Hasselbeck is not Manning or within the discussion. He's not Fouts or Unitas or Tarkenton or Marino or-

But HE's THE BEST GODDAMN QUARTERBACK WE'VE EVER HAD!!

Game ball guy. I hope you find a team to make your last few millions in the league with. And I hope that team is not the Seattle Seahawks.

Ndamukong Suh at Colt McCoy - Game Thread

John Morgan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 01:03:21 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

"What a bunch of sucks."

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When Colt McCoy doesn't step into his throws, he lacks the arm strength to pull off Matt Ryan heroics. Ohio State achieved gut pressure and McCoy threw a fade away pick to Anderson Russell to end the half. That turned third and two on the Buckeye 15 into Buckeye ball; and three easy into zero. McCoy couldn't dodge the interior pressure and stumbled back before hucking it errant.

He has a compact snapping motion that allows him to step into a collapsing pocket and read and deliver. It generates good zip underneath and on mid- and middle-deep routes. Don't buy halfsmart criticisms of his arm strength. McCoy twice zipped the famous fifteen yard out against Ohio and with ease. He has good touch and accuracy on his deep passes, but less accuracy underneath than his career 70.6 completion percentage would suggest. Throwing short, he snaps his arm over his ear, and when he misses, it's high and low. He got ragged efforting a throw deep and just as his elbow flew out, so did the pass right and out of bounds.

That happens. McCoy is not an epic deep passer, but it's within his arsenal. He is the center and source of the Longhorn offense. Texas grinds it out with a multiple back rushing attack. It attacks through McCoy.

Colt is not tall or prototypical, and his rushing will need to become mobility and smart-scrambling in the pros, but he looks legitimate to me. He makes quick reads, quick decisions, senses pressure and is brave under fire. Whether you want McCoy or Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen or Sean Canfield or Other or Matt Hasselbeck, the more talented quarterbacks in the 2010 draft, the more valuable Seattle's three top-fifty picks. I think McCoy is a great fit for what Greg Knapp wants to do. My jaded, wounded Seahawks heart is even a little abuzz about the kid.

See what you think.