SB Nation - LeRoy Hill

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

4 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Carlos Dunlap Careens off Big Timmay's Draft Board

John Morgan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:37:27 -0000

More photos » by Hannah Foslien - AP

Could Darryl Tapp enjoy a Elvis Dumervil-like breakout if Seattle switches to a 3-4?

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Sours Grapes Treatment

Carlos Dunlap was arrested Tuesday morning for driving under the Artest. He is a potential top ten pick with the size, scouting profile and upside of a great defensive end. What Dunlap lacks is elite production. Dunlap has 17.5 sacks and 24 tackles for a loss in two seasons starting. Good but not elite production, further downgraded by the Gators dominance. Florida is 25-1 over the past two seasons, and Dunlap plays most snaps ears-pinned-back, protecting a big lead. He had a sack against Florida State and Troy, two teams that rank 48 and 53 nationally in sacks allowed. He had three sacks against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have allowed 1.67 sacks per game, which sounds mediocre at first, but bad when you consider they average 22 pass attempts a game. Mississippi State allows a sack on 7.5% of pass attempts.

Fire Timmay Treatment

Dunlap might bulk up a bit and transition to 3-4 end in the pros. He is listed at 6'6", 290. Dunlap has a good mix of stoutness and playmaking ability against the run, and the height, frame and athleticism required to push the pile, set the edge and keep blockers at bay. Seattle has four linebackers contesting for three spots, and another linebacker, Will Herring, that deserves snaps. Brandon Mebane has proven capable of commanding double teams. His first two seasons, he was bulked up and immovable, yet still agile enough to disrupt. If Seattle re-signed Cory Redding and encouraged Lawrence Jackson to grow into his frame, the pieces are in place to build a 3-4.

That, like drafting Dunlap, only happens if Ruskell is not re-signed. Some teams struggle with the transition to a 3-4, but others, like Green Bay and Denver, have thrived. The key is having the right personnel.

Mebane could be the starting nose tackle. He would rotate with Colin Cole and Red Bryant. Jackson and Redding could play end, with Bryant and Vance Walker in the mix. Nick Reed and Darryl Tapp would be situational pass rushers, and both might benefit from moving off the line. David Hawthorne and Lofa Tatupu would play inside, and Leroy Hill and Aaron Curry on the outside, or Curry inside and Hawthorne outside. The roles could be dynamic. Seattle could move Curry inside on passing downs and sub in Tapp at rush linebacker.

The Seahawks need to improve their pass rush. The team has many good pass rushers, but only two that can consistently work off the line: Patrick Kerney and Tapp. It wants to create pressure without committing additional pass rushers. All teams do. One solution is to add an elite pass rushing lineman. Another is to switch the scheme. Tapp might not benefit as much as Elvis Dumervil, but the two share size and skill sets, and Dumervil has changed from pass rushing specialist, but liability against the run, to pass rush demon--damn the run. Tapp has bulked up to better defend the run. It's worked, but at what cost? He has never looked slower or less disruptive off the edge. Reed is playing his way out of the league. Tackles spring out of their stance and chuck him like so much seventh-round garbage.

This is all food for thought. Seattle doesn't need to draft Dunlap to transition to a 3-4, but his recent arrest is an opportunity to discuss alternative paths for Seattle's young defense. Tim Ruskell does not deserve to be fired, but the move still might be in the best interest of the Seahawks. He has made some shrewd moves in his time and added talent, but like Mike Holmgren, his execution might be masking a flawed plan. Holmgren disliked trick plays, was adverse to the shotgun, and taught a twenty-year old version of the West Coast. It worked when it was perfect, crafted by the master himself, but was resource intense and fragile. I assume Ruskell is building something like to a Tampa 2. He has concerted resources into linebackers and pass rushers. Gus Bradley taught a Tampa 2 in college and broke into the NFL under Monte Kiffin.

But when was the last time a Tampa 2 defense dominated? And can a Tampa 2 succeed without a Simeon Rice, Jared Allen or Dwight Freeney? The two great Tampa 2 teams of the past are both below average defensively this season: Chicago and Tampa. I do not believe a 3-4 is intrinsically better than a 4-3, but, perhaps by accident, Ruskell has assembled a roster that fits a 3-4 in some ways better than it fits a 4-3. In the past, Seattle's best players, like Kerney and Tatupu, were 4-3 players playing in a 4-3 scheme. It could maybe make a 3-4, but was not going to. We're in flux. Ruskell has not been fired, nor re-signed. Suddenly, anything is possible. Even Seattle drafting Carlos Dunlap.

The Rise and Fall of Tim Ruskell: 2005

John Morgan — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:49:56 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Joe Jurevicius was cut by the Tampa Bay Bucs March 1, 2005. Tim Ruskell signed him to a one-year contract later that month. He was Seattle's most valuable target in 2005, catching ten touchdowns and leading Seahawks wide receivers in DVOA. Darrell Jackson missed ten games that season.

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Tim Ruskell was announced as Seattle's new general manager of football operations February 23, 2005. He inherited a good team, a team that had made the playoffs in each of the prior two seasons, and a team with a winning record in four of Mike Holmgren's six seasons as head coach. He inherited a franchise quarterback turning 30, Matt Hasselbeck, two hall of fame talents on the offensive line, Steven Hutchinson and Walter Jones, a great running back in his prime, a good young cornerback, a three-tech, an oft-injured one-tech, a pair of system correct wide receivers and two controversial young safeties. A year later, the team Ruskell inherited represented the National Football Conference in Super Bowl XL.

Rumors notwithstanding, Ruskell's contract is up after the season. Seattle was 4-12 in 2008 and is 4-7 so far in 2009. His job is in the balance.

Seattle ranked 16^th in DVOA in 2004. It ranked 9^th in 2003 and 18^th in 2002. It had a below average defense in all three seasons. Ruskell was brought in to fix Seattle's defense. He built his reputation under Rich McKay and the Bucaneers dominant Tampa 2 defense was his living resume. The 2004 team finished 21^st in total defensive DVOA, 17^th in passing DVOA and 30^th in rushing DVOA. Pro Football Reference provides the starting defense in 2004 and the starting defense in 2005.

Seattle finished 15^th in defensive DVOA in 2005. It was worse against the pass, fading to 24^th, but better against the run, 5^th overall. The team did not make a sudden leap as is often described. It did improve significantly and through a significantly remade roster. The front seven was gutted. Rookies Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, and free agent acquisitions Chuck Darby, Bryce Fisher and Jamie Sharper all started eight or more games.

All but Sharper started for Seattle in its two playoffs wins preceding the Super Bowl. Seattle allowed under 300 yards to the 10^th ranked, Washington, and 14^th ranked, Carolina, team offenses. It smothered the Redskins. Shaun Alexander missed most of the game, and Seattle lacked the rushing attack that defined it. The Seahawks dropped five fumbles and lost three, forced no interceptions and lost the turnover battle three to one. But it held the ninth ranked Redskins rushing attack to 59 yards on 25 attempts. The Redskins had only three rushing first downs, and were 0-2 in red zone efficiency.

Seattle hired Tim Ruskell to remake the defense and he did. The Seahawks won their first playoff game in 20 years because of that defense. It then blew out the Carolina Panthers, powered by three interceptions, a forced fumble, its trademark rushing attack and sound execution in every phase, by every unit.

Seattle lost Super Bowl XL, but was not outplayed. Ruskell was the toast of the NFL. He was hired to remake the defense and did, and his remade defense was critical for the greatest run in Seahawks history. Ruskell also scored on offense. He signed Joe Jurevicius and Jurevicius was Seattle's most valuable target, keeping the pass game afloat after Darrell Jackson missed ten games.

Ruskell was unimpeachable. He was the pulse of the organization and the face of its future. The Seahawks success lifted all boats. Mike Holmgren was venerated after a controversial start to his career. John Marshall stepped in for Ray Rhodes, who had suffered a stroke in September of 2005, and his defense looked young and promising. Fringe players like Jordan Babineaux had earned a following among a resurgent fanbase. Matt Hasselbeck was in the discussion of best quarterbacks in football. Shaun Alexander was the league's MVP. Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson formed the best left side in football. The spectre that haunted Seattle, the Seahawks could not win in the playoffs, was exorcised. It had won and decisively.

It finished the season Super Bowl losers. It was a team in decline.

David Hawthorne is Playing Big But Can He Play Correct?

John Morgan — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:42:00 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

At ends of the spectrum: D.D. Lewis is the elder linebacker that does his job and only that. David Hawthorne is the prospect flashing great potential, but struggling with fundamentals.

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David Hawthorne has three sacks, five tackles for a loss and three interceptions in three starts. It's a line that has a few thousand Lofa Tatupu backers questioning their allegiances. Few want to say Hawthorne is better than Tatupu, but fewer still know how to prove otherwise. Hawthorne is active, making plays, making tackles, forcing turnovers, and Tatupu is on IR, on IR in his get-healthy season. If Tatupu has been Tats of old in 2008, this discussion might be more muted, but Tats of old is starting to look like, well, a player that doesn't exist anymore.

If Hawthorne had accumulated his eye-popping stats over a season, it would have inspired heated Hawthorne versus Tatupu debate. Heater had to do it in four. So how are we going to do this? Should I make rules or just hand out handguns. Field Gulls is place as any to wage this war. Let's pick sides and tear each other apart.

Ok, but really: Hawthorne is a find, but he's miles away from Tatupu when it comes to fundamental linebacker play. I gave myself a short schedule and stumbled into the most boring tape dissection I've had since Seattle at Pittsburgh in 2007. It's hard to judge an offensive line when Matt Hasselbeck pitches a tent in the pocket. It's hard to evaluate the wide receivers when they are never targeted. It's hard to evaluate a defense that started strong and then sat back and awaited the next drive ending pick. One drive was instructive, and it spoke to this debate.

Nate Burleson had committed pass interference in the end zone and still managed to drop a gimme touchdown. Detroit was back on the field, hoping to stem the comeback or at least kill some clock. It did neither, but it was close to achieving both.

What matters is Hawthorne. Seattle's linebackers are synchronized and interdependent. When Leroy Hill gets a tackle, Tatupu might have jammed the fullback and Aaron Curry contained the cutback lane. The tackle is typically the easy byproduct of team execution. On the first snap, Hawthorne jumped back and out of position. He did exactly same on the next snap, perhaps anticipating pass. His linebackers in smash did their job, but Hawthorne was sealed out by bad anticipation and a poor angle to the ball carrier. He made both tackles, the first after seven, the second after eight.

Hawthorne took a bad angle on a toss right to Aaron Brown. He couldn't bluff his way back into the action this time and Jordan Babineaux cleaned up after 19. Hawthorne didn't stand out on the next play, but he was all to apparent on the interception. Seattle got excellent pressure from its front three, and thankfully for us, Patrick Kerney shielded Stafford's vision before Stafford chucked an interception to Deon Grant. Behind Kerney, wide open in the middle stood Casey Fitzsimmons, open, open where Hawthorne had failed to drop. As the camera panned to Grant running under the pick, it was obvious a better quarterback would have found Fitzsimmons for the first.

If you're the right age, you probably remember thinking Michael Boulware was a superstar safety in the waiting. He had that Babineaux knack to be where the action was. In two seasons he had nine interceptions, three forced fumbles, three sacks and a touchdown return. His play was noticeable, electric, and terrible. Boulware couldn't read a route or defend play action. He was around tips but not in throwing lanes, he was a good blitzer, but absent in deep cover. Seattle never mustered much of a pass defense with Boulware and when Ruskell deigned to remake the secondary, Boulware was shipped out, benched by the Texans and then run out of the league.

Hawthorne is auditioning for a starting role, be it at MLB in Seattle, OLB in Seattle or LB somewhere else. His highs are exciting and his lows too subtle for most fans. His weaknesses reading an offense are apparent, but he's young. He could improve his execution and awareness with experience, and soon combine what he already has, playmaker potential, with what he needs to start. But I beg, before we pit these two young linebackers in combat, let's be sure the apprentice is good and not just bumbling his way into big plays.

Final Notes for the Third and Fourth Quarter

John Morgan — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 19:10:59 -0000

by LM Otero - AP

I would be surprised if Matt Hasselbeck makes it through this season without missing further time.

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Here's a final notes roundup for the third quarter and whatever it was that followed.

Max Unger struggled playing from behind. Jason Hatcher ran through him with ease and hit Matt Hasselbeck, producing the image we see above.

I cringe thinking Nate Burleson is Seattle's #1 receiver. He is low motor, struggles with drops and is every bit the receiver DVOA casts him as: -5.2%. When we talk trade candidates and remaking the Seahawks roster, I hope Burleson continues his thousand yard pace and can fetch something fair this spring.

To the bitter end, Greg Knapp got his fullback involved in the pass game. To the bitter end.

Kelly Jennings has worked the futile attempt at the ball into his repertoire. It joins the "fall down", the "where's the ball", the "leapt over" and, of course, the "close but no cigar".

It's not epidemic, but it is weekly. Colin Cole was doubled almost to the first down marker and Marion Barber converted the first on his was to an easy 15.

Cory Redding played extensively at defensive tackle and looked active and disruptive. His presence inside allows Seattle a couple new looks in its rotation: the double three paired with Brandon Mebane and the hands unit paired with Red Bryant.

David Hawthorne blitzed into Mebane but moved with such force that he freed himself and Mebane from his blocker. Mebane delivered a finishing hit on Tony Romo, but Hawthorne tore through for the hit and strip. Hawthorne might be the best in-line blitzer on this roster - better even than Leroy Hill.

Jordan Babineaux continued to play ably against an elite corps of Cowboys skill position players. If he can continue to improve, don't be surprised if Babineaux is Seattle's free safety in 2010 and beyond.

David Hawthorne: Pretty Boy-seeking Missile

John Morgan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:14:04 -0000

More photos » by LM Otero - AP

Jordan Babineaux showed great spacing by consistently hitting his man before the first down marker. Felix Jones was able to spin through for the first.

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Today I finish up with last weekend's game notes. I rewatched the second quarter last night and I had an absolute blast. Here are my notes and highlights.

We left off with Seattle pulling close on one of those Greg Knapp third-down deep passes that drive folks crazy. A block in the back penalty would pin Dallas at their eight to start the next drive. Things looked up. Seattle needed its defense to hold field position and get Matt Hasselbeck the ball back.

Miles Austin responded with a beautiful catch on the right sideline. He was double covered and reached out nearly out of bounds to grab the ball. It's worth noting that Austin looked every bit the real deal, exploding out of the blocks and running tight routes.

That got Dallas out of jail. On the next play, Dallas pulled out its left side and directed fullback Deon Anderson at right end Darryl Tapp. Tapp has to win this, but doesn't and that allows Felix Jones a clean release through the hole -- Flozell Adams and Kyle Kosier blocking into the second level. Adams destroyed Aaron Curry and Jones was picked his way towards the third level. Jordan Babineaux hit him before the marker but Jones twisted for the first. It could have been worse. It should have been worse.

Brandon Mebane pressured up the middle and Leroy Hill was in position and aware of the pass on a high floater that overshot Martellus Bennett.

Dallas again targeted the Seahawks right side and doubled to stampede through Colin Cole. Deon Grant was controlling the right end and made contact with Jones at the line, but Jones spun right through Grant's tackle and reminded me again why I've stumped so vehemently for him to be positioned at free safety. Ken Lucas made a saving tackle that forced third down after a gain of nine.

Marion Barber converted the first. He was the up back.

Seattle overloads the right and Curry comes free around right end forcing Tony Romo up into the pocket. Seattle struggled with getting edge rush but failing to establish interior pressure, but this time Red Bryant plows through the right guard and forces and incomplete pass. Babineaux can be seen covering Jason Witten streaking up the right hash mark. However Seattle did it, the Seahawks shut down Witten.

Well, mostly. Patrick Kerney was taken down and that tripped Bryant and eliminated much of Seattle's rush. Cory Redding got a parting shot, but the pass was accurate and Witten received for 18.

David Hawthorne is an excellent blitzer, a stand out blitzer from the mike position. Seattle dropped its right end and overloaded the offensive right, but it wasn't a team effort that felled Romo. The goal was to free Hawthorne. Curry and Redding attempted to engage and force the Cowboy interior offensive line left. That plan was for Hawthorne to rush unabated between right guard and right tackle. Instead, Marc Colombo was squatting in Hawthorne's rush lane and Heater had to power through the giant right tackle to sack Romo. He did. That is a big league sack and Heater a major addition to Seattle's pass rush.

Romo scrambled for ten to put Dallas back into a manageable third down. Nick Reed was pwned.

The drive concluded when Lawrence Jackson pressured Romo and forced an incomplete attempt to Patrick Crayton. The resulting missed field goal put Seattle in business at their 38. Grand opening. Grand closing.

What is Wrong with Seattle's Secondary?

John Morgan — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:56:22 -0000

More photos » by LM Otero - AP

Jim Mora cut his teeth coaching Seattle's secondary. Since his arrival, Seattle's secondary has been an awful mess.

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David Hawthorne shot the gap and tackled Felix Jones for a loss of three. It was the kind of quick turnaround Seattle needed to escape a potentially damning fumble. Then everything crumbled in front of Seattle's high priced secondary.

Roy Williams ran a ten yard curl and ran off Marcus Trufant. Tru was caught in his backpedal and Williams was wide open for the reception. Trufant managed to wrestle him down before the first, but Dallas was left with an easily convertible first and back in field goal range.

The Cowboys motioned Miles Austin into the backfield, using Marion Barber as the up back. They ran a toss sweep off of right end. Seattle's linebackers fought off and broke through Austin's lead blockers, but Austin exploited a crack to effort past the line. He was upright and exposed and stumbling through the marker when Jordan Babineaux sunk his helmet into his arms and popped the ball from his grasp. Seattle failed to recover. The play was called back on a Martellus Bennett hold.

Dallas was third and eleven and either about to pass or about to run and settle for the field goal. We know how this ends.

Seattle's persistent third down futility reminded me of something Brian Burke wrote in an email exchange.

My theory is that this may be why run defense appears so unimportant. Say teams are not operating at the game equilibrium, and passing is, on balance, a more lucrative strategy than running. In other words, there really is a considerable passing premium where the payoff for a pass is generally higher than a run, all things considered.

Having a good run defense would therefore be somewhat self-defeating. Take the 2007 Vikings defense that gave up only 3.1 yards per run (good) but 7.0 yards per pass (bad). Facing such a solid run defense, a good offensive coordinator is forced to pass more...which would be a far more effective thing to do in the first place, especially against a relatively weak pass defense. A team like the 2007 Vikings would essentially be forcing their opponent to unwittingly play a more efficient and effective strategy, all the while exploiting their own weakness.

Seattle's ability to force third and long by stifling the run game was undermining the overall defense. It's maddening. It's infuriating watching Patrick Crayton run past the marker and quick-curl without a man within three yards of him. Deon Grant was assigned over coverage and dropped deep. Josh Wilson was assigned under coverage and played the passing lane. Romo effortlessly split the two and found Crayton for 16 and the first.

The Cowboys reset with Austin in the backfield and Barber again the up back. This time Austin was a decoy. Leroy Hill chased him into the right flat, but Barber had the ball. Babineaux, David Hawthorne and Aaron Curry controlled the interior gaps and Babs shot up and tackled Barber after two.

Seattle blitzed five, dropping right defensive end Darryl Tapp into cover, and Curry closed on Jason Witten before he could receive. Witten twirled and juggled and dropped the ball.

It was again third and long. Seattle rushed seven, Trufant covered Austin, Austin initiated contact and Trufant was flagged for pass interference. A play later, Barber ran off right tackle for the touchdown. In seven plays, Seattle had forced two third and longs, it had forced a fumble it couldn't recover and a hold that negated the play, but it couldn't defend the pass. Why can't Seattle defend the pass?

David Hawthorne Finishes Drive 1-2 for 14 Yards

John Morgan — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:52:28 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

Seattle started sloppy, but turned a David Hawthorne tackle for a loss and two mis-throws by Tony Romo into a punt.

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Seattle started the game strong. Olindo Mare kicked a touchback and then Seattle forced Dallas to punt after five plays for 24 yards. Justin Forsett unwisely signaled fair catch at the Seattle six, but the Seahawks drove down the field and Mare kicked a 43 yard field goal to give Seattle the early lead.

Seattle started the game sloppy. Josh Wilson covered Miles Austin on his 10 yard completion. Wilson backed off before the snap and Austin shook coverage with his cut. Austin curled back and Wilson bit deep, allowing Austin an easy reception in the right flat. On the next play, David Hawthorne read Marion Barber's rush and shot through the right ‘A' gap, but fell off the tackle and allowed Barber to break right and into the second level. Leroy Hill broke contain. Ken Lucas tackled him after 16, but Hawthorne had a chance to tackle Barber for a loss and Hawthorne's penetration gave Hill an easy cleanup tackle off right end. Hill chased the inside movement and was easily blocked out attempting to reset on the right.

Pressure forced two sloppy throws by Tony Romo and Dallas punted. First, Hawthorne atoned. Dallas attempted to set a screen on the right, but pulled their blockers too quickly and allowed Hawthorne to get underneath and clear to the ball carrier. He was again in position and again almost lost Barber on a broken tackle. Heater's mighty ankle tackle prevailed and Barber was dropped in the backfield.

The Seahawks followed with consecutive blitzes. They overloaded the offensive left. Cory Redding dropped into cover on the offensive right. The blitz was contained but the pressure nevertheless forced an inaccurate pass from Romo. Seattle challenged the ‘A' gaps on the next play. Hawthorne and Aaron Curry aligned between the defensive tackles of a wide-set four man rush. Curry blitzed and broke through with power. Hawthorne dropped left, Darryl Tapp dropped into the left flat and Jordan Babineaux struck from the right. Romo misfired.

Punt.

Virginia Tech at North Carolina - Game Thread: Scouting Kam Chancellor, Sergio Render, Cam Thomas, Etc

John Morgan — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:29:05 -0000

It's Thursday and that means Field Gulls long football weekend begins. Tonight's North Carolina at Virginia Tech matchup lacks the preeminent talent that last week's Florida State game had, but both teams have talent that could contribute to the Seahawks future. Here's a brief rundown and then we'll turn this post into a game thread.

VT

Kam Chancellor: I was pondering Taylor Mays yesterday. Mays shows up poorly in game film. His tendency to bring the boom but forget the brain has earned comparisons to Roy Williams. Williams was a feared run defender in his time. He was a sideline to sideline force in the box that could break down on a rusher in space and bullet backs into the turf. Ideally, Mays could be that, but not around the line like Williams, but twenty yards deep, and not blowing up rushers, but breaking up passes by blowing up receivers.

The Taylor Mays-Eric Berry dilemma ignores an important fact: Tim Ruskell has always built his safeties through developing late round picks. It isn't set in stone, but has been consistent. Jordan Babineaux is the latest, but he looks temporary. Chancellor is a hulking free safety that could be Mays lite. He is 6'4", 230 and benched 355 as a freshman. Seattle seems intent on running a cover one and keeping Deon Grant in the box. A player that could sweep the deep middle and punish receivers who challenge him would be an asset. Chancellor must first improve his cover instincts and quickness to the ball carrier. If he shows something in the next few weeks, don't be surprised if Seattle drafts him and develops him on the roster for future employment.

Ed Wang and Sergio Render: Two tech linemen that could play guard for Seattle. Wang is a slight tackle that used to be a tight end. Render is a preseason All-ACC recipient that was once considered among the best guard prospects in college football.

Jason Worilds: He isn't likely part of this coming class, but the junior end fits the Ruskell mold and is worth watching. Worlids is short but powerful.

NC

Cam Thomas: Seattle has added Colin Cole and Red Bryant, but if it intends to get keep getting bigger in the middle, allowing its ends and linebacker to run free, it should upgrade Cole and ensure against Bryant never developing. Thomas is 6'3", 330 space eater that can create a little rush. That makes him like a younger Cole, but with better upside.

The Tar Heels are little younger than the Hokies and have fewer pro prospects, but make sure to check out their linebackers. One could replace Leroy Hill someday soon. Credit to NFL Draft Scout for much of the above information. It's a peerless resource.

Tackling Marion Barber

John Morgan — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:36:03 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Heater has shown fleet feet and good instincts, but must win at the point against power back Marion Barber.

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Marion Barber has made a career out of a great first gear and the pop of a fullback. Barber excels at powering through the first tackler, resuming his run or at least falling forward. The length of a body can be enough to make a failed rush successful, a stuffed run a first down or a goal-line stop into a touchdown.

Barber discovered himself in 2006. He was the lesser used but greater half of a committee led by Julius Jones. Barber was the closer. In only 135 runs, Barber amassed the league's sixth most DYAR. He ranked first in value per rush and second in success.

Dallas attempted to turn that concentrated value into a feature back and Barber struggled in 2008. This season, Dallas is back to spreading touches and Barber is back to powering through tackles and punishing defenders. This time, Barber is the leader and his teammates Tashard Choice and Felix Jones the backs getting the money yards.

Barber averages a little over 14 rushes a game. His quickness allows him to turn the corner and before the quad injury that kept him out of week three, he had almost an even split of runs to the inside and the outside. Returning in week four, he began gunning at the middle again and his overall split represents an inside rusher: 47 rushes to the middle and 25 to the outside.

When healthy, he can be equally productive inside and outside. Inside, he exploits the short path to build momentum and attack linebackers in the hole. Outside, Barber makes defensive backs fullback for a snap, driving into and through them and using the tackle attempt to pick off tacklers and break free. He attempts to break the tackle or to break the tackle enough to fall forward. Barber is a contact rusher whose productivity hinges on yards after contact.

The key to beating him is winning the tackle enough at the point to turn his lust for contact into stuffs in the hole. Most teams lack the linebackers to do that, but Seattle doesn't. Seattle must not only stand Barber up and counter his momentum, but swarm to Barber and not allow him to spin off and gain yards after contact.

That presents a major challenge for David Hawthorne. Heater has proven he can cover the field, make tackles outside the hash marks and join in gang tackles. He hasn't proven that he can win the one-on-one matchup and power the back into the hole. Hawthorne must for Seattle's rush defense to stop or slow football's number one rated rushing attack.

If Hawthorne can withstand the initial pop, his linemen and fellow linebackers can swarm, strip or at least force Barber back. The faster he hits Barber in the hole, the better able his linemen will be to collapse around Barber and stop him where he stands. It's not about tackles in this case, it's about tackle assists, and winning first contact, and keeping Barber in the blocks, and preventing the squat power back from bruising, spinning and continuing his march towards the end zone. Hawthorne, Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill and Deon Grant will each get their turn, but Hawthorne owns the middle, and through him Dallas will win, or opposite him, Marion Barber will fall.