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Week Fourteen Preview: Broncos at Colts

BigBlueShoe — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:09:13 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Caldwell. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts have significant history between one another. Whether it is nail-biting, smash-mouth-style games played in snowstorms, or playoff blowouts featuring Peyton Manning throwing about a gazillion touchdown passes to then-Colts wide receiver Brandon Stokley, some of the most memorable games for these modern Colts have been against the Broncos.

This Sunday, they renew their rivalry with some new faces.

Gone are head coaches Tony Dungy for the Colts and Mike Shanahan for the Broncos. Replacing Shanahan is the brash and cocky Bill Belichick protege in Josh McDaniels. The new head coach in Indy is the soft-spoken, even-keeled Dungy disciple that is Jim Caldwell. Both have different approaches to the game. Both have gotten a lot out of their football teams of late. And while some players are new to this party, like Brian Dawkins and rookie Knowshon Moreno, other players are very familiar with this rivalry, but are now "playing for the enemy"; namely the before mentioned Brandon Stokely and defensive tackle Darrell Reid. Both play for Denver now.

For the Colts, the lone "defector" in the rivalry is former-Broncos defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. He is now coordinating the Colts defense, and doing a great job.

With the Broncos regaining their form after dropping four straight, this game figures to be like any other match-up the Colts had had to deal with this year: Hard and physical.

The Broncos are a bit of an enigma in that you aren't quite sure what you are going to get when you play them, and that is necessarily by design. During their 6-0 start, they seemed to have a lot of breaks go their way, with the incredibly lucky Brandon Stokley tip-catch-TD at the beginning of the year to beat the Bengals as the best example of said breaks. When they lost four in a row, they seemed to get exposed a bit. Their only meaningful road win was a 43-23 victory over the Chargers, but that win was later avenged by the Chargers utterly dominating the Broncos 32-3. They righted their ship, somewhat, by beating a banged-up Giants team and then later feasting on the small children that litter their division (namely, the Kansas City Chiefs).

In terms of standard stats, the Broncos defense is tied with the Colts, giving up exactly 16.8 points per game. The Broncos have 34 sacks, are about even with the Colts in terms of run defense, and sport a dangerous return threat in Eddie Royal.

The big reason the Broncos are 8-4 is their defense. Though Josh McDaniels has done a good job with a Denver team many felt would only win 3 games this year, the fact is McDaniels has nothing to do with the Broncos defense. He doesn't coach it, scheme it, or call plays for it on gameday. Mike Nolan, the current Broncos defensive coordinator and former head coach of the 49ers, runs Denver's D.

The standard stats for the defense are impressive, but when you factor in shake n bake's ever lovable, huggable DVOA stats, the Denver defense is top notch. They are ranked #4 in DVOA.

Meanwhile, the Broncos offense is ranked 21st in the league using standard scoring stats (20 points per game) and 19th in DVOA. The also rank in the bottom half of the league on third down completion percentage.

OK, those were the stats. now, we move to the keys:

A key match-up in the game is between Denver's outstanding left tackle, Ryan Clady, going up against all-world defensive end Dwight Freeney. Clady is as good as they come. But, then again, so were potential future Hall of Famers like Jonathan Ogden and Walter Jones. Freeney routinely ate those guys for lunch, and unless Denver plans to give Clady help he could be another "skull on the pile" for Freeney. Gil Brandt of NFL.com has a write-up on this match-up.
Pressure on Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is very key. Last year, Orton (who played his college ball at Purdue following Drew Brees leaving for the NFL and just prior to Curtis Painter's tenure) walked into the grand opening of Lucas Oil Stadium and lit the place up. He was able to do this because his pocket was clean and he was rarely, if ever, pressured. That, and he had Matt Forte galloping all over the field for him. The Colts cannot allow Orton to gain any kind of comfort zone. They must get into his face, and pressure him into mistakes.
The other key match-up for the game is Peyton Manning v. Brian Dawkins and the Broncos secondary. The DBs in Denver are rather geriatric by NFL standards. Dawkins has been in the league 14 years. Starting corner Champ Bailey has played for 11 years while nickel corner (and longtime Colts nemesis) Ty Law, who signed with the Broncos a few weeks ago after a long absence from the NFL, has played 15 years. Denver will likely look to mix coverages, allowing their corners to play one-on-one with safety help against Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. This is the tactic the Patriots used a few weeks ago. This means players like Pierre Garçon and Austin Collie must continue to step it up. Denver coach Josh McDaniels acknowledged the development and growth of Garçon and Collie is a recent press conference they have as part of Colts.com's weekly Colts Up-Close, Online Edition.

As always, the Colts must take the field this Sunday against a hungry, playoff situated team that is looking to solidify their post-season chances. Just like most other "experts," I too am very surprised by Denver's current 8-4 record. But, you have to give them credit. I personally think much of the credit should go to Mike Nolan, but McDaniels deserves some props for hiring Nolan and for making some strong personnel moves this off-season along with new Broncos GM Brian Xanders.

Obviously, there are elements of McDaniels personality and coaching style that leave one feeling that he is a little bit of a punk. Though we've been bashing him for a few weeks now, Yahoo! Sports "expert" Michael Silver did write an interesting article this week detailing how "ugly" McDaniels has acted and carried himself this season. However, despite the slime trail McDaniels seems to leave behind him, you cannot discount that he has done a better job with the 2009 Denver Broncos than Mike Shanahan did with the 2008 Denver Broncos.

I recently said in this Mile High Report FanPost that Nolan was able to take a defense with, roughly, the same players that Mike Shanahan had and transform them into a top flight D.

Turns out, I was wrong.

According to Broncos fans (and it's reasonable to trust them on this), only Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey, and D.J. Williams are holdovers starting from last year's defense. Everyone else appears new, and they are buying in to the Broncos "Pats West-style" 3-4 defense.

Many thanks to Broncos fans at MHR for an excellent series of FanPosts, allowing communities from both blogs to interact. In the three FanPosts created (two on MHR, one here) we had close to 700 comments from Broncos and Colts fans alike with much of the discussion focused solely on football and the game itself.

In fact, our FanPost had less trash talk than the Tweets between Raheem Brock and Darrell Reid.

These Q&As between writers and readers might one of the best weeks we've had with another blog all season. Special thanks to ANGELSFAITH and John Bena.

This should be a hard fought game between two teams who might meet again in the post-season. We shall see.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 3

John Morgan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

In which Seattle signs Jason Campbell to outperform Matt Hasselbeck and maybe he does.

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I hope Mike Holmgren signs with Cleveland. I have selfish interest, namely Seattle not re-signing Holmgren, but I have more noble interests as well. Cleveland has one of the youngest, most talented offensive lines in the NFL. It starts Joe Thomas at left tackle, Eric Steinbach at left guard and Alex Mack at center. Right guard Hank Fraley and right tackle John St. Clair are interchangeable organizational soldier types. It doesn't have great skill position talent, but that's where Holmgren shines. He finds scheme appropriate players that can excel behind a dominant offensive line. Holmgren is also an expert at developing young quarterbacks.

Why start with a tangent? In this scenario, Seattle ditches Matt Hasselbeck and signs free agent Jason Campbell. Tim Ruskell is out and his departure hints at a potential rebuild, but if Seattle can win some down the stretch, and especially if Seattle can win some down the stretch because of its Ruskell built defense, the Seahawks might adapt certain Ruskell ideals even without Ruskell.

Ruskell was risk adverse. He had a narrow definition of "his guy". His aversion to risk may have served him well, but his narrow definition did not. Consider Deon Butler. Ruskell traded into the third round to select Butler because Butler was "his guy". Butler dripped Ruskell: Four-year starter at a major conference powerhouse, undersized but fast, coachable, hard working and quietly productive. Ruskell conflated "his guy" with risk aversion and overpaid for a risky player. Despite his track record and accolades, Butler could bust because he is overmatched by NFL competition.

Ruskell spent big to get his guy, but his guy was never less risky than Juaquin Iglesias, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie or Johnny Knox - the six receivers selected after Butler. And only Iglesias has underperformed Butler. Ruskell projected his internal bias on the players he drafted. It rarely conflicted with his risk aversion, but when it did, it often spelled failure.

Campbell is a prime target for any risk adverse general manager. His connections to Auburn's unbeaten season might have spoken to Ruskell's personal bias, but his standing as a young, established NFL quarterback speaks to rational roster construction. Campbell has the tools of an NFL quarterback - arm strength, size, mobility - and those tools are NFL tested. He has adapted to multiple playbooks and played near league average football on some very poorly constructed offenses. As we've seen in Chicago and Denver, the quarterback may be the center and most essential part of any NFL offense, but it is not more important than the other ten men that take the field.

This Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Seattle trades or cuts Hasselbeck. It wishes him well, gives lip service to rebuilding and is satisfied to see him sign with Cleveland. Hasselbeck joins muscle milk buddy Brady Quinn and assumes the Trent Dilfer role.

Walter Jones retires.

Seattle cuts Patrick Kerney, Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace.

That gives the Seahawks money to burn. Seattle signs Campbell to a frontloaded contract with a third-year buyout clause. Campbell is playing through the last year of his rookie contract and though he's rich, he's not quarterback rich. Seattle buys maneuverability and Campbell's services by stacking his 2010 salary with zeroes.

Seattle could still be a player in free agency after signing Campbell. It will attempt to fill holes and free itself to draft best available talent throughout the draft.

Signing Campbell and cutting dead weight frees Seattle to make a big splash in the NFL draft. It has money to afford another early first round prospect and the picks to trade up. It could take a centerpiece player on defense like Ndamukong Suh. By releasing Hasselbeck and signing Campbell, the burden falls off the offense. Seattle buys itself time. If Campbell struggles in Seattle's still wrecked 2010 offense, he's young and can be released. Campbell has a bad reputation. He hasn't earned Seahawks fan loyalty and we are unlikely to experience the same kind of revulsion and outrage watching him battered to bones as we do watching Hasselbeck torn asunder.

Campbell is signed as a stopgap+. The Seahawks compliment the signing with a project quarterback selected sometime in 2010's epic quarterback draft. A looming correction to the onerous rookie pay scale is encouraging players to declare, and while the draft lacks a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning, it might be the deepest quarterback draft in modern history. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Sean Canfield, Ryan Mallett, Dan LeFevour, Pat Devlin and Tony Pike will all likely fall deep into the second day. Seattle will have an established starter for 2010 to test its system and offense, and a talented young quarterback developing behind the scenes.

How it works: Seattle successfully moves into the top of the draft and selects a once in a generation defensive talent. That helps push Seattle's cheap, young and talented, but by no means dominant, defense from potential to production. The team is not a contender again in 2010, but it's close.

Campbell outperforms Hasselbeck. He's younger and healthier and continues to play like a league average quarterback. Campbell could also breakout. Seattle is set for either possibility. It builds its offense towards the future by continuing Ruskell's habit of drafting late and mid-round offensive talent and seeing who shakes out. The major rebuild will wait until next offseason. 2010 is about seeing what they have and what they need, something a diminished Hasselbeck has made difficult to impossible this season.

The young defense provides excitement and gives the team a direction and identity. Campbell's arm opens the run game and Seattle executes the grind and smother attack Jim Mora and Greg Knapp seek. The team takes a flier on another young back (or two) and someone sticks, filling out a balanced and productive if unspectacular committee of backs. It's Ground Chuck all over again.

How it fails: Seattle cuts Hasselbeck but doesn't sign Campbell, or Seattle retains Hasselbeck and projects to have one of the worst offenses in football in 2010, or Seattle signs Campbell but Campbell performs no better than Hasselbeck and Seattle's young quarterback is prematurely forced into action. The meat of this is that Seattle does not spend enough on its offense and that offense again undermines the defense.

Contrarily, the defense never steps up. It continues to stifle the run but still cannot stop the pass. Seattle's defensive savior is a rookie and like Aaron Curry, more potential than player. The defense is average, but no better and as the offense putters towards the bottom of the league, the not-good-enough defense shoulders the consequences. Seattle changes the face of its failures but not its failures and what little can be salvaged from Ruskell's roster is older, more expensive and closer to free agency. Campbell is signed to stave off a full rebuild and does. He plays two seasons of league average football and is cleared when Seattle must clean house in 2012.

The Rise and Fall of Tim Ruskell: The Steve Hutchinson Saga

John Morgan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 01:24:51 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

Tim Ruskell wanted Steve Hutchinson, but John Abraham and Julian Peterson too. Attempting to sign all three, he was caught with his hand in the pickle jar.

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Shaun Alexander and Steve Hutchinson were free agents. Both were 28. Hutch had completed his five-year rookie contract, and, if re-signed, his cap cost could double. Alexander was already expensive. The Seahawks had franchised him in 2004. Seattle could have signed both players, and attempted to, but would have tied up much of their available cap. Tim Ruskell was aggressively targeting Julian Peterson and John Abraham. He wanted Hutch, but he wanted to improve the Seahawks too. Signing Alexander tied up $5.9 million against the cap.

Hutch expected offensive tackle money. The market for guards was soft. Hutchinson was the fifth highest paid offensive guard in 2005, but cost only $3.5 million against the cap. Even Larry Allen, the league's highest paid guard, only cost $6.5 million. Only three guards total cost more than $5 million against the cap.

Running backs were much more expensive. Eight cost more than five million against the cap in 2005, and Edgerrin James cost over $9 million. The league perceived running back to be a premium position, on par with wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback. If Seattle put the franchise tag on Hutchinson, his salary would reflect the salaries of all offensive linemen and not just guards. The Lions placed the tag on Jeff Backus in 2006. His base salary was $6.98 million. If Seattle franchised Hutchinson, it would have had $25 million in cap room dedicated to Hutch, Alexander, Walter Jones and Matt Hasselbeck.

Ruskell did something he has done many times since: Let the market to set a player's value. Placing the transition tag on Hutchinson allowed him to negotiate with other teams and Seattle the right to match. It avoided guaranteeing Hutchinson $6.98 million, and, in Ruskell's eyes, enabled negotiations towards a long-term contract. Ruskell was willing to spend big to retain his Pro Bowl guard. His hope was he wouldn't have to. His hope was that he could sign Hutchinson, but structure his contract so that Seattle could still sign Peterson, Abraham or both.

Early March, and shortly after the league ratified a new collective bargaining agreement, Minnesota offered Hutchinson the largest contract in league history for an offensive guard. It was a bold move made audacious by a now notorious poison pill clause. The clause stipulated that if Hutchinson was not his team's highest paid offensive lineman at any time after the first year, that his entire contract was guaranteed.

If Seattle wanted to match Minnesota's offer, it would not only need to match the Vikings unprecedented offer, it would be forced to guarantee Hutchinson's entire salary. Peyton Manning was the league's most expensive player and his contract guaranteed only $34.5 million. Matching Minnesota meant guaranteeing Hutchinson a staggering $49 million. Hutch would cost $13 million against the cap in 2006, forcing Seattle to forget Peterson and Abraham. Ruskell, supported by Paul Tagliabue and the NFL, contested the poison-pill clause, even restructured Walter Jones contract, but arbiter Stephen Burbank ruled in the Vikings favor. Seattle would either ruin their cap or let Hutchinson walk.

The deadline passed midnight of March 20, 2006, and Steve Hutchinson became a Minnesota Viking. Tim Ruskell fell on the wrong side of history. He attempted to make his Super Bowl losing team a Super Bowl winner. Instead, he lost an irreplaceable piece, alienated his coach, and began the Seahawks slow burn towards rebuilding.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 2

John Morgan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:26:51 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

John Carlson, Justin Forsett, Deon Butler and Max Unger form the existing core of offensive talent that Seattle can build around. Chris Spencer, Rob Sims and Sean Locklear could be retained too. If Seattle begins its move towards the offense of the future, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player will join this core in 2010.

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There is no third-year wide receiver rule and no single path a quarterback takes to competence. The Seattle Seahawks could employ any strategy this offseason and still not start a competent quarterback in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If it sticks with Matt Hasselbeck, it will commit itself to Hasselbeck's decline phase, starting him in his age 35, 36 and 37 year-old seasons. For perspective, a quarterback performs at 83.2% of total capacity at 34, but historically, that capacity drops to 76.8, 69.9 and 62.9% from 35 to 37. The Seahawks could attempt to offset that decline through building a better team.

Whoever drafts Hasselbeck's replacement, whoever that replacement is, and however that replacement is integrated into the offense, the Seahawks will most likely decline as a passing offense in 2010. Old quarterbacks lose ability in chunks. Young quarterbacks gain ability in leaps. The two cross paths sometime around an old quarterback's age 36 season and a young quarterback's age 24 season.

Hasselbeck will turn 35 next season. Seattle can retain him through the end of his contract while simultaneously adding the quarterback of the future. Hasselbeck would be the presumed starter and presumably better than his young replacement, help transition Seattle towards its future, and potentially resurrect his own career, should he desire.

That's why I dub this the "Graceful Exit Plan." Seattle could draft a quarterback in the top ten, but is less likely to with Hasselbeck under contract and costing $10 million against the cap. In the last ten drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten five times. In the last twenty drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten ten times. It's difficult to project a draft so early in the process, but it is likely Jimmy Clausen will join Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Dan LeFevour and Sean Canfield atop this year's quarterback class.

Clausen is the most likely top-ten pick. The impact of keeping Hasselbeck is that Seattle is unlikely to select a quarterback within the top ten, and therefore we will assume Clausen is unlikely, Bradford could likewise be unlikely, but the remaining five will be available. The remaining five represent the most likely pool of replacements for Hasselbeck.

Canfield's age is not publically listed, Rotoworld lists him at 108, but he is a senior now and graduated from high school early to attend spring drills. It's most likely that Canfield is 22, and like most of the rest of his class, will be a 23 to 24 year-old rookie.

It's ridiculous to discuss a quarterback prospect's upside. Every legitimate prospect is capable of making Canton or selling Cadillacs in five years. Likewise, the age guidelines presented by Pro Football Reference evidence that quarterback development is initially about experience. The greatest single delta is between age 21 and age 22, when a quarterback jumps 22.2%, and the second greatest is between 22 and 23, when a quarterback jumps 18.5%. Most 22 year old quarterbacks are rookies. All 21 year old quarterbacks rookies. After the sophomore sprint growth is more gradual.

The Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Hasselbeck is a lame duck. The media loves to pick on such situations and tease out whatever controversy possible. The ownership, management and Hasselbeck must agree to bury the subject and unite behind a common plan. That starts the day after the draft, when the team provides a unified front: Hasselbeck is the starter, but his drafted replacement, the future.

If Greg Knapp is still Seattle's offensive coordinator, Seattle's pick will most reflect his personal preferences in a quarterback. Tim Ruskell has deferred to his coaching staff, sometimes smartly, and sometimes, like when re-signing Shaun Alexander, stupidly. It will reflect Knapp's system and Ruskell's eye for talent. Let's quickly vet potential candidates.

Knapp Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

LeFevour

Canfield

Ruskell Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

Tebow could fall off Knapp's list and Canfield appear on Ruskell's. The most likely candidate is McCoy. He fits Knapp's system and passes Ruskell's standards. Tebow is the second most likely candidate and then maybe Canfield. I'll run with Tebow and McCoy, because the two are similar types and would be built around in a similar fashion.

We'll assume Seattle's spends its first overall pick on McBow. Seattle would not likely spend additional early picks on the offensive line. Knapp would protect the quarterback by moving the pocket, establishing the run and extending the short passing attack. It would want a top receiver to pair with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, replace or eventually replace Nate Burleson (2010 is voidable), grow with McBow and one day power the McSeaBow's offense. Or, should that talent be unavailable, an elite running back prospect to lead Seattle's developing committee of backs.

Knapp likes speed and Ruskell likes polish. The two might settle on Brandon LaFell. Many players are faster than Lafell, but few are more polished. Lafell does not satisfy Knapp's desire for speed, but he can be a deep threat. He's a big player, known for his blocking ability, that passes Ruskell's standards and can fit within Knapp's system.

If Seattle retains or re-signs Burleson, or postpones its need at wide receiver, it could address its defense or add a running back. The one thing it will not likely do is invest heavily into its offensive line. Another GM might.

Seattle will face a difficult free agency before it reaches the draft. Retaining Hasselbeck means a major chunk of its salary cap is invested into a player very unlikely to contribute to its future. It could cut Patrick Kerney and Walter Jones, either, but it would be hard pressed to retain all three. It must cut someone or be dragged down by sunk cost.

That period will determine who Seattle targets in the draft, but skill position and defense should populate their prime targets.

How it Works: Seattle's coaching staff and executives buy themselves a stay of execution. Emphasis is on the future and Seattle's existing offense is culled for talent. One of Chris Spencer and Rob Sims will join Deon Butler, Max Unger, Justin Forsett, John Carlson, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player to form Seattle's offensive core going forward.

McBow starts for most of the preseason and subs if Hasselbeck is injured or grossly ineffective. Hasselbeck endures his victory lap with statesman-like aplomb and tutors his young understudy, to whatever undetermined effect. Seattle is not a true contender in 2010, but it could contend for the NFC West. The defense gels and Seattle's young offense shows flashes.

How it Fails: If Seattle cannot sooth Hasselbeck but feels compelled to retain him, it will struggle to keep the media hounds at bay. Management accepts 2010 as a season spent towards its future, but the media exploits the fanbase's impatience, growing dissatisfaction and entitlement, and not so subtly splits the franchise between Hasselbeck and management; The past and the future; winning and the losing it takes to win again.

McBow struggles in the preseason and is stuck behind Mike Teel or Seneca Wallace on Seattle's depth chart. The offense, built to be cheap and good, versus expensive and dominating, like the Seahawks of yore, is cheap and bad. The defense does not pick up the slack. The Seahawks spiral towards their third straight losing season, a little older, and further wedged between a full rebuild and mediocrity.

The Rise and Fall of Tim Ruskell: 2005

John Morgan — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:49:56 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Joe Jurevicius was cut by the Tampa Bay Bucs March 1, 2005. Tim Ruskell signed him to a one-year contract later that month. He was Seattle's most valuable target in 2005, catching ten touchdowns and leading Seahawks wide receivers in DVOA. Darrell Jackson missed ten games that season.

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Tim Ruskell was announced as Seattle's new general manager of football operations February 23, 2005. He inherited a good team, a team that had made the playoffs in each of the prior two seasons, and a team with a winning record in four of Mike Holmgren's six seasons as head coach. He inherited a franchise quarterback turning 30, Matt Hasselbeck, two hall of fame talents on the offensive line, Steven Hutchinson and Walter Jones, a great running back in his prime, a good young cornerback, a three-tech, an oft-injured one-tech, a pair of system correct wide receivers and two controversial young safeties. A year later, the team Ruskell inherited represented the National Football Conference in Super Bowl XL.

Rumors notwithstanding, Ruskell's contract is up after the season. Seattle was 4-12 in 2008 and is 4-7 so far in 2009. His job is in the balance.

Seattle ranked 16^th in DVOA in 2004. It ranked 9^th in 2003 and 18^th in 2002. It had a below average defense in all three seasons. Ruskell was brought in to fix Seattle's defense. He built his reputation under Rich McKay and the Bucaneers dominant Tampa 2 defense was his living resume. The 2004 team finished 21^st in total defensive DVOA, 17^th in passing DVOA and 30^th in rushing DVOA. Pro Football Reference provides the starting defense in 2004 and the starting defense in 2005.

Seattle finished 15^th in defensive DVOA in 2005. It was worse against the pass, fading to 24^th, but better against the run, 5^th overall. The team did not make a sudden leap as is often described. It did improve significantly and through a significantly remade roster. The front seven was gutted. Rookies Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, and free agent acquisitions Chuck Darby, Bryce Fisher and Jamie Sharper all started eight or more games.

All but Sharper started for Seattle in its two playoffs wins preceding the Super Bowl. Seattle allowed under 300 yards to the 10^th ranked, Washington, and 14^th ranked, Carolina, team offenses. It smothered the Redskins. Shaun Alexander missed most of the game, and Seattle lacked the rushing attack that defined it. The Seahawks dropped five fumbles and lost three, forced no interceptions and lost the turnover battle three to one. But it held the ninth ranked Redskins rushing attack to 59 yards on 25 attempts. The Redskins had only three rushing first downs, and were 0-2 in red zone efficiency.

Seattle hired Tim Ruskell to remake the defense and he did. The Seahawks won their first playoff game in 20 years because of that defense. It then blew out the Carolina Panthers, powered by three interceptions, a forced fumble, its trademark rushing attack and sound execution in every phase, by every unit.

Seattle lost Super Bowl XL, but was not outplayed. Ruskell was the toast of the NFL. He was hired to remake the defense and did, and his remade defense was critical for the greatest run in Seahawks history. Ruskell also scored on offense. He signed Joe Jurevicius and Jurevicius was Seattle's most valuable target, keeping the pass game afloat after Darrell Jackson missed ten games.

Ruskell was unimpeachable. He was the pulse of the organization and the face of its future. The Seahawks success lifted all boats. Mike Holmgren was venerated after a controversial start to his career. John Marshall stepped in for Ray Rhodes, who had suffered a stroke in September of 2005, and his defense looked young and promising. Fringe players like Jordan Babineaux had earned a following among a resurgent fanbase. Matt Hasselbeck was in the discussion of best quarterbacks in football. Shaun Alexander was the league's MVP. Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson formed the best left side in football. The spectre that haunted Seattle, the Seahawks could not win in the playoffs, was exorcised. It had won and decisively.

It finished the season Super Bowl losers. It was a team in decline.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 1

John Morgan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 23:47:55 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Wheeler - AP

Every plan has risk. Investing in Matt Hasselbeck is the quickest path towards competing again. It also risks the longest, most painful path towards competing again.

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Last post for a few days. Enjoy the holiday if you celebrate. I know I can't count my blessings with every bone in a newborn baby's body.

This is the first in a multipart series examining how Seattle can determine its future by determining its quarterback of the future. The second part should be up on black Friday.

The Matt Hasselbeck Plan

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, Matt Hasselbeck started the season 25 of 36 for 279 yards. He wasn't well ahead or living on RAC. He wasn't Admiral Checkdown commanding the Y-wings to martyr themselves against the turrets of the opposing defense's Death Star. Hasselbeck was a capable quarterback, leading his team back from his own blunders to a shutout slaying of the St. Louis Rams.

Then Hasselbeck dropped his deflector shields and threw himself bodily down the 49ers exhaust shaft and towards the team's reactor core. He was stopped short by Patrick Willis' superlaser elbow smash.

Everything that has followed has sucked. Broken down Hasselbeck is not much more valuable than General Sack-Himself, Seneca Wallace. Hasselbeck has had broken ribs, and still suffers from a throwing-shoulder injury of unknown origin. The injuries, we must conclude, have taken their toll.

When Shaun Alexander slowed, his decline was inexorable. The smartest, most skilled back in the world can not overcome zero burst and swampfooted cutting ability. Hasselbeck and his fans are enduring a more complicated but no less painful decline. Unlike Alexander, Hasselbeck is not cooked, done, debilitated and embarrassing himself.

Matt Hasselbeck could recover and be a good quarterback again. His marginal arm strength is likely to decline, but not so badly he can no longer make his bread and butter mid-range throws. Hasselbeck can not do that today, but when he's healthy, he can.

In this plan, Seattle accepts what it has and does not have at quarterback. It sticks with Hasselbeck and attempts to build itself around what he can do. It improves the line and run game to keep Hasselbeck healthy and keep Hasselbeck viable when he is inevitably injured. Tim Ruskell continues to build the defense towards elite.

The plan might be enacted thus:

Rework and extend Hasselbeck's contract in the offseason. This will free immediate cap dollars and preempt a quarterback controversy.

Cut Patrick Kerney and Walter Jones.

Be players in free agency and in the trade market. Target undervalued backs from teams with depth, and attempt to buy elite free agents like Julius Peppers, Elvis Dumervil, Carlos Rogers and Richard Seymour. Seattle is no longer an attractive destination for players that want to win, but Paul Allen's money is no less green.

Approach the draft from a best talent available standpoint, but understand the need for talent at offensive line, running back and potentially wide receiver.

Tap Mike Teel as the long term replacement, or acquire young talent to contest him for the position.

How it works: Hasselbeck regains arm strength as his health improves, but, more importantly, Hasselbeck the signal caller comes to fore as Hasselbeck the quarterback recedes. The team builds around Hasselbeck's intelligence at the position and compensates for his deteriorating tools.

The Seahawks continue to redefine themselves as a defense-minded team. It doesn't panic and pour resources into the offense, attempting to remake an elite offense around a quarterback not capable of helming such an attack, but buttresses the offense and improves and stabilizes the offensive line. The Seahawks young talent gels, perhaps pushed over the top by a Peppers, Berry or Dunlap, and begins a run of dominance over a still very weak NFC West. If things break right, one February night in the coming decade, Robert dies of joy. We spread his ashes accross Qwest hiding our barely stifled smiles.

How it fails: Hasselbeck is never fully free of routine football abuse and therefore never free of debilitating injuries. The team invests in Matt Hasselbeck's skills and leadership and get Trent Green, Jake Delhomme, Mark Brunell, etc: A once very good quarterback at his body's end. The discord on offense prevents major gains by a talented defense, or, what gains are made, are wasted because of the Seahawks untenably bad offense.

Having invested in Hasselbeck and otherwise ignored the quarterback position, the team is stuck between stations, improving on defense as the offense crumbles--seasons away from any chance of renewal. Seattle spends its coming seasons betwixt good and bad, often settling into mediocre, but never a true contender. The upshot: The Seahawks can't collapse enough to rebuild.

Prospective Seahawks General Managers: Randy Mueller

John Morgan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:13:53 -0000

by Don Wright - AP

Randy Mueller traded Chris Chambers to San Diego for a second round pick. Chambers was recently released by the Chargers.

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I am saving Sunday's tape analysis for the offseason. Just like last offseason and the two that preceded it, I will scout every important player on the Seahawks roster, cite specific plays from the season that exemplified that player's strengths and weaknesses and project their future within the organization.

Yesterday was filled with so much defeat, complete, non-competitive, Brett Favre benched in the second half, defeat, Seahawks fans deserve a respite. Let us escape from our escape through our escape.

The Tim Ruskell-Mike Holmgren dichotomy is media created foolishness. Holmgren wants back in football. A smaller team, a team that needs the recycled hype and distraction, that is mired in failure and needs anyone, anything to steal the headline from griping and finger pointing, will hire Holmgren.

Paul Allen is a progressive and invested owner. That doesn't put him beyond hiring a general manager he is comfortable with. That is why I start this series with a former Seahawk, Randy Mueller.

Randy Mueller

Mueller cut his teeth with Seattle, working his way up from pro personnel assistant, 1983, to player personnel director, 1990, and finally Vice President of Football Operation in 1995. The signing of Holmgren signaled the departure of Mueller. The two worked together on the disastrous 1999 draft before Mueller became the general manager of the New Orleans Saints.

Mueller drafted Joey Galloway, Shawn Springs, Pete Kendall, Phillip Daniels, Walter Jones, Anthony Simmons and Ahman Green for the Seahawks. He was integral in Seattle escaping Rick Mirer. Mueller traded Mirer to Chicago for a first round pick in 1997.

He went on to work for the Saints starting in 2000. There he helped clean up another coach-executed disaster, flipping Ricky Williams to the Miami Dolphins for two first round picks in 2002. In three season with the Saints, Mueller drafted Marc Bulger, Darren Howard, Kevin Houser, Deuce McAllister, Moran Norris, Donte Stallworth, Charles Grant and LeCharles Bentley.

From 2002 to 2005, Mueller worked for ESPN as an analyst. He signed with the Dolphins in 2005, but then-coach Nick Saban was in charge of personnel decisions. Mueller was in charge for the short period between Saban's resignation January 3, 2007 and Bill Parcells appointment December 19, 2007. The 2007 Dolphins finished 1-15 and Mueller was fired December 31, 2007.

His larger record speaks better of him than his recent work. Mueller might best be described as a fixer. He helps teams escape bad situations and has succeeded at turning high round picks into successful players. He traded Chris Chambers for a second round pick, Wes Welker for a second and seventh round pick (when Welker was a return specialist and part time receiver) and, as mentioned, freed the Seahawks from Mirer and the Saints from Williams. Mueller does not have much experience picking quarterbacks. He did find Marc Bulger in the sixth, and acquired Trent Green for a fifth round pick. Before a brain scrambling hit essentially ended his career, Green was a serviceable quarterback in 2007.

If Seattle is looking to blow up the roster and exchange some of its more valuable players for picks, Mueller is the right guy to dismantle and liquidate. He isn't young, but he is connected. He isn't fresh or sexy, but his record is pretty strong. Mueller is a bridge, and I would think, appeals most to fans that think the Seahawks are not close, not rebuilding, but collapsing; years from contention.

Brandon Mebane in the First Quarter and the Optimal Defensive Line, Pt. 2

John Morgan — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:38:26 -0000

Mebane should have Cole's job. The decision to restructure the line around Colin Cole was stupid when made and has led to predictable results. Seattle's third down stand, in which Tapp knifed through Mike Gandy and tackled Wells in the back field, is a great example of how important Mebane was to Seattle. Mebane was on the right, beside Tapp where he belonged. Cole was on the left. Seattle was in a five man front, but Mebane was still double teamed of the snap. It was an ugly, but effective display. He hit his blockers low, getting topped and dropped, but holding ground and most importantly, freeing Tapp. Tapp took apart his single block and used his great inside move to come free to the ball carrier.

Mebane had two more nice looking pass rush moves, but neither effectively freed him. He hustled into a play off end and forced the near interception by Marcus Trufant. Mebane was good, good enough to make those around him better, but not as good as he has been at the one-tech. Cole needs to be worked down in the rotation. His presence stops Seattle from starting an optimal line.

That idea was on my mind as I notated Mebane's day: The Seattle Seahawks optimal, starting defensive line. This season is about next season and this offseason about adding talent where it's needed. Seattle traded for a three tech in his prime and turned him into a defensive end. It's not a bad idea, but with Lawrence Jackson's development, Seattle has options at end. Redding should bulk back up and move inside. He has the motor, length and repertoire of rush moves to be a very good inside pass rusher, but he isn't contributing much from the outside. Mebane should bulk up and reassume the one-tech. Cole would be his rotational partner, what he always should have been, a better Howard Green.

The key to forming this line is complementary skills. Mebane has helped free Jackson, but Jackson is not a great pass rusher. Mebane should be keeping blockers off Tapp. Redding's major weakness is getting high in his stance and subsequently pushed back. Jackons pairs nicely with him because Jackson is very stout for an end and a very good run defender. When Redding sags back, Jackson can drive his man into the hole, narrow it, and even disengage and make the tackle. Seattle might cede some stoutness in the middle, but it fields an elite corps of linebackers. Building this defense to defend the run has, predictably, done just that. When it must defend the pass, be it third and long or playing ahead, it has crumbled.

Seattle could add interior line talent through the draft. A player like Tyson Aluala is a natural complement to Mebane. It doesn't need to though. I think Redding wants to stay and if Seattle can pony the bucks, he will. He shouldn't be outrageously expensive. Concerns about health have passed. He has appeared once on the injury report and not for a knee or groin, but a shoulder. Seattle can not continue to sink over $20 million into Walter Jones, Matt Hasselbeck and Patrick Kerney. The Seahawks could retain their best talent and be players in free agency with that money.

We have months before those decisions are made. Until then, Seattle needs to stir things up and experiment. It needs to test roles and figure out its offseason needs. Seattle had the right game plan against Warner, but used the wrong personnel. It can't start Cory Redding - Brandon Mebane - Colin Cole - Patrick Kerney and expect a persistent pass rush. That line features, arguably, two to three players that are below average pass rushers for their position. And yet, by moving Redding inside and Mebane over center, the resulting Lawrence Jackson - Cory Redding - Brandon Mebane - Darryl Tapp line has three, even four above average pass rushers for their position.

Jim Mora said he was encouraged despite the loss. I would be more encouraged if Seattle did something about the loss. Seattle had zero sacks. It continues to excel against the run, but at what cost? The NFL is a passing league. The Seahawks have a great linebacker corps and three corners that can tackle. It shouldn't need to optimize its line for run stuffing, but it nearly has. It can allow long runs and win. It allowed over 200 yards to Frank Gore, but would have been in the thick of it against San Francisco if not for Matt Hasselbeck's injury. It can not allow another quarterback to sit back and pick apart its zones. Seattle shot of the gates like a contender, but without pass rush, it crumbled, allowing Kurt Warner to become just the latest quarterback to fatten up against the Seahawks zones.

Seattle Seahawks Wither; Fall 31 - 20 to the Arizona Cardinals

John Morgan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:25:25 -0000

by Matt York - AP

Greg Knapp achieved offense with surprise.

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This was an heroic effort and exciting football. Arizona is pretty good this year. Standing at 6-3, the Cardinals should surpass ten wins. Seattle tore out to an early lead, but the defense crumbled against a sustained Arizona attack. Seattle was beat because it was the inferior football team. The Cards had thirteen meaningful drives and averaged 35.8 yards a drive.

There's a lot of game balls to give out, but first let's discuss some of Seattle's weaknesses. Sean Locklear looked a bit gimpy between snaps, so perhaps he is not fully healed. However Locklear is chipping away at his chance to stick at left tackle. Seattle faces an interesting dilemma with Lock. He could be a great right tackle in Greg Knapp's system, but even without the left tackle incentives, he is expensive for a right tackle. Seattle owns a fabulously cheap offensive line, so perhaps it could afford to pay Locklear well at right tackle.

Matt Hasselbeck had a hard game. Heroic is a great way to describe his play. A hero is someone that gets other people killed. Joss Whedon did not envision Hasselbeck's high pass to Deon Butler, but I did upon quoting him. There are many things Hasselbeck still does well. To build a good to elite offense around him, something Seattle would need to do to have a realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl, would require a massive investment. A more massive investment. Seattle has already sunk much of its cap into Beck, Walter Jones, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Objectivist is wonderfully free of Kyle Orton moments. Because Matt Hasselbeck can consistently make the right read and throw with accuracy, he can make an offense out of check downs. But it's a shit offense. And the second his reads are wrong or his accuracy flutters, it completely breaks down.

Seattle had very little chance to recover when it lost the lead. It does not have what Arizona has: A repeatable ability to gain big chunks of yards in one play. But it shouldn't have lost the lead. Seattle did exactly what it needed to: punch the Cardinals in the mouth early and force Warner to consistently face thick zones. The defense did not crumble because any one player played poorly, but because now it does not have a single great pass rusher. The defense Seattle wants to run needs someone to make Brandon Mebane's almost-snaply pistoning into the backfield and crushing the front of the pocket matter. It needs someone to keep the tight end away from Darryl Tapp. It needs a better edge rusher than Aaron Curry. It lacks that and it failed to sack Warner once.

Game Balls:

Justin Forsett: Kid showed up and declared his an NFL player. Force showed quick feet in his cuts, power in the hole and the less recognized ability to run under tackles and through smaller holes. I don't believe in a feature back. So I am not calling for Forsett to get the majority of the carries, but he is no longer a specialty back. Force is a first and ten, I-formation back.

ME!BANE!: Said. Done. Master of the midway.

Darryl Tapp: Tapp is hybrid end-linebacker. His ability against the run is that of a linebacker, but he's a pure edge-rushing defensive end. Keep this guy and enjoy how he ages.

Josh Wilson: Who would think Wilson would look like the best cover corner Seattle had today? Pistol isn't too good at that, actually, but small samples may contain outliers. He needs to be facing the quarterback to be his best and the game plan to man up the Cardinals defenders and hope they can buy the pass rush time stopped working in the second. Wilson recovered well, showed some man ability and kept overall his guy close, boosting his campaign for starting right corner. He wasn't great, but he was good at something he doesn't do and against the league's best wide receiver corps.

Greg Knapp: It took some balls to swallow your assumptions and let Forsett run real runs. He also called a very nice game. Early, Seattle attacked with a suddenly successful rush game, and punctuated their Two-Headed Freak with a mid-range aerial assault. He saved the screens for desperation time in the fourth. It's hard planning around an injury wracked quarterback with fading arm strength that plays behind a piecemeal line, but Knapp squeezes production out of this offense with a mix of good timing and good play calling.

That's it folks. Seattle is no longer in the hunt to win the division. If it keeps up this intensity, it will enter the Wild Card chase, but only in a fanboy sense. Field Gulls is switching gears again. Like last year, the tape review will now focus on players key to Seattle's future. This week: Sean Locklear at left tackle and Brandon Mebane at the three.

The twilight of Marc Bugler's career

VanRam — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:01:52 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

St. Louis Rams quarterback Marc Bulger has lost it.

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Football Outsiders has their "Quick Read" feature up today, looking back on the individual performances from week 8. The numbers confirmed two things for the St. Louis Rams.

First, Marc Bulger was unable to make much happen against one of the league's worst pass defenses, even with time in the pocket. Few Rams watchers will forget memorable throws in the bottom of the strike zone against the Lions defensive line. Here's what FO said:

If you take Marc Bulger's combined performance from 2007, 2008, and the first half of 2009, and then place it on a 16-game scale, his numbers aren't pretty: 266-of-465 for 2855 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. They're a dead ringer for Jim Everett's 1996 season in New Orleans: 267-of-464, 2797 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Why is that relevant? Mainly because Everett would take 75 more snaps as a professional quarterback after that season. Bulger is just about done, and his inability to produce against an awful pass defense was just a sign that he's part of the problem in St. Louis, not the solution.

Looking back, I don't think the Rams had much choice in keeping Bulger. The cap hit for releasing him would have been huge and left the Rams with lots of dead money. And, there was ample reason to think that with a better OL and a healthy Steven Jackson that Bulger would have been acceptable for a rebuilding team. I think the team and lots of fans underestimated just how talent-depleted our group of WRs were. Had Laurent Robinson not been injured, that might have been a different story, giving Bulger a reliable option and keeping Avery in the deep threat role he's built for.

GM Billy Devaney and the coaching staff made the decision to focus their efforts on the offensive line, and I still think that was the right call, no matter how painful it is to watch Bulger play. I'm a big believer in the theory that teams build success from the lines up, and the Rams had big issues on the OL. Sure, Pace is having a decent season this year, but he couldn't be counted on for much beyond that given his age (look at Seattle's predicament with Walter Jones now). Getting an OL in place and a cornerstone lineman in Jason Smith sets the Rams up well for the 2010 season, when if they need to take a QB in the draft they can because they can put him behind an experienced line.

And on the hero of the game, Steven Jackson, here's what FO said about him:

Jackson had 17 carries on first down, and nine of them were successes, including three first downs and a 25-yard touchdown run that gave the Rams a lead they would not relinquish. He also converted a pair of third-and-1 attempts.

The Rams had 21 first downs through the whole game and ran Jackson on 17 of them. If the Rams are going to win anymore games this season, they'll have to have a liberal dose of Steven Jackson.