Final Roster Predictions

Matty I — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 23:30:35 -0000

After a long, grueling training camp and preseason, some players will no longer be Miami Dolphins as of 4 pm eastern on Saturday. The Dolphins went into Thursday's preseason finale with 66 players on their roster. They must be down to 53 players by the 4 pm deadline.

Below is my final roster prediction. I've included some explanations after my prediction. Check it out and then tell us your final predictions.

	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
QB	Chad Pennington	Chad Henne	Pat White
RB	Ronnie Brown	Ricky Williams	Patrick Cobbs
FB	Lousaka Polite
WR	Ted Ginn	Greg Camarillo	Brandon London
WR	Davone Bess	Brian Hartline	Patrick Turner
TE	Anthony Fasano	David Martin	John Nalbone
LT	Jake Long	Andrew Gardner
LG	Justin Smiley	Brandon Frye
C	Jake Grove	Joe Berger
RG	Donald Thomas	Shawn Murphy
RT	Vernon Carey
	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
DE	Kendall Langford	Tony McDaniel
NT	Jason Ferguson	Paul Soliai
DE	Randy Starks	Phillip Merling	Lionel Dotson
SOLB	Jason Taylor	Charlie Anderson	Quentin Moses
ILB	Channing Crowder	Reggie Torbor
ILB	Akin Ayodele
WOLB	Joey Porter	Cameron Wake	Erik Walden
CB	Will Allen	Vontae Davis	Jason Allen
CB	Sean Smith	Nathan Jones
S	Yeremiah Bell	Chris Clemons
S	Gibril Wilson	Tyrone Culver
	1st Team	2nd Team	3rd Team
K	Dan Carpenter
P	Brandon Fields
LS	John Denney

PUP: Matt Roth
Last 5 On: Brandon London, Erik Walden, John Nalbone, Brandon Frye, Quentin Moses
First 5 Off: Lex Hilliard, William Kershaw, Joey Haynos, Courtney Bryan, Nate Garner

Quick explanations:

The final roster spot, for me, came down to Brandon London, Lex Hilliard, and William Kershaw. But I think Kershaw could still make the team if the Dolphins decide to only keep five outside linebackers as opposed to six - possibly in place of Erik Walden or Quentin Moses. I think they'll try to sneak Hilliard onto the practice squad. The bottom line is that London is more valuable in terms of the number of plays he sees on gameday because of special teams. Although, truth be told, regardless of if it's London or Hilliard, I'm not sure either is a lock to be active on gameday.
I'm confident that the Dolphins will keep three tight ends. Some think David Martin could be a surprise cut, but he's still head and shoulders better than either John Nalbone or Joey Haynos. With the number of two TE sets Dan Henning uses, I don't see why the Dolphins would need to cut Martin. You could see the Dolphins keep Haynos over Nalbone, though - which would mean Nalbone is a prime practice squad candidate. But I also wouldn't be shocked to see another team (Kansas City or Cincinnati, for example) poach Nalbone off wiavers. Both teams have a need at tight end. I wouldn't even take the risk, if I were the Dolphins - which is why Nalbone is on my final 53.
I think Dotson has shown enough to earn a roster spot. But barring injury, he's likely going to be inactive on most gamedays.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Dolphins decided to waive Andrew Gardner in favor of Nate Garner. If that's the case, the Dolphins would obviously hope to get Gardner on the practice squad.
If I had to come up with a list of possible practice squad candidates based on my 53-man roster prediction above, I'd say J.D. Folsom and Lex Hilliard would be locks. Mark Lewis and James Robinson would be other possibilities. And I'd expect the Dolphins to go outside the organization for other potential guys.

Miami Dolphins Training Camp Primer: Linebacker to be a heated battle

Matty I — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 04:15:08 -0000

Is CFL standout Cameron Wake really a "lock" to make the roster?

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We closed last week by focusing in on the defensive line in our most recent "training camp primer." To kick off our primers this week, we'll remain on the defensive side of the ball and turn our attention to the linebackers.

The coaches will have to make some tough decisions this year in camp. And without question, the cuts at linebacker will be among the toughest for this staff to make. There are a number of players on the bubble that possess some value to this team - either as guys possessing serious potential or as major special teams contributors. What this means is that the "bubble players" are going to have to step up their performance beginning on Sunday.

THE QUICK BREAKDOWN

Virtual locks to make the roster: Joey Porter, Channing Crowder, Akin Ayodele, Matt Roth, Jason Taylor
Likely to make roster: Reggie Torbor
On the bubble: Cameron Wake, Charlie Anderson, Erik Walden, William Kershaw
Long shots: Quentin Moses, Tearrius George, J.D. Folsom, Orion Martin

THE QUESTIONS

Two players are likely to get the most attention during training camp. One is Cameron Wake. We're all going to be wondering how this CFL superstar pass-rusher handles converting to outside linebacker in the NFL. You don't tally 39 sacks in two seasons in the CFL without having some talent. But how will his talent translate to a new position against elite talent?

Jason Taylor figures to be the other most closely watched players in camp. His return has rejuvenated Dolphin fans everywhere. But we aren't getting the "'06 JT" or even the "'07 JT." We really don't know what to expect from Taylor following the worst season of his outstanding career in Washington. How will Taylor be used and how effective will he be?

Other questions that will be asked during camp include which linebackers prove they can contribute on special teams, Matt Roth's potential contract extension, and how well Joey Porter can hold up and reciprocate his outstanding '08 season.

THE NUMBERS GAME

The biggest question of all in terms of how the linebacker unit shakes up will be how many players the Dolphins decide to keep. Coming out of training camp last year, the Dolphins kept seven linebackers on the 53-man roster - and all were active on gameday. But by the end of the year, the Dolphins had ten linebackers on the 53-man roster - with eight being active in week 17.

If you assume that those listed above as "virtual locks" or "likely" to make the roster do indeed make the roster, we've used up six roster spots already. That means the guys like Cameron Wake, Erik Walden, Charlie Anderson, and William Kershaw will be battling for two - or, at most, three - roster spots. My money is on two - to be honest.

WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE US?

I'm expecting eight linebackers to make the roster, meaning either Wake, Anderson, or Walden won't make the team. So lets focus on these three for a minute.

Wake signed a 4 year, $2.318 million contract with the Dolphins back in January. The total value of the contract is on par with a late 3rd or early 4th round draft pick while the guaranteed money is on par with an early 3rd round pick. So it's best to view Wake as a 3rd round draft pick. What does that mean? It means that while it's unlikely Wake fails to make the roster, he's certainly not a lock. He has to prove that he can at least contribute right away on special teams while developing as a situational pass-rusher. He showed the outstanding ability to get down field in a hurry in kick coverage during non-contact OTAs. If that can translate well once the pads go on, Wake should have a very good shot at sticking.

Walden was a 6th round pick in 2008 of the Dallas Cowboys. The Dolphins claimed Walden off of waivers in late November and he instantly upgraded Miami's special teams play. We haven't seen anything from Walden out of the base defense, however. I wonder if he'll have to prove to be more than just a special teams guy in order to make the team over Wake. After all, waiving Walden will cost the Dolphins nothing in terms of a cap hit.

The Dolphins signed Anderson last offseason to a 3 year, $7.35 million deal. It was expected that Anderson would become a good nickel pass-rusher in Miami's defense. After struggling early on, Anderson did become a factor during the second half of the season. In the team's final 8 games of 2008, Anderson had 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. But is that enough to keep him around at a hefty $1.7 million salary in 2009?

THE KEY BATTLE

Obviously, the key battle among linebackers will likely be a 3-way fight for two roster spots among Charlie Anderson, Cameron Wake, and Erik Walden. You could also throw William Kershaw into the mix. But I think he'd really have to impress for him to stick.

Like I said above, special teams play and salaries could play a pivotal role in which two stick and which is handed a pink slip. If Anderson doesn't stand out, it'll be hard to justify keeping him on despite having the highest salary of the three. He is also not nearly as good as Walden on special teams and is older with less "upside" than Wake. To me, all of this is just the recipe to being cut barring a very good performance in camp and in the preseason.

With that said, the coaching staff might want to see more than just solid special teams work from Walden if he is to stick. And if Wake proves to be just "ordinary" in camp, is there a chance the Dolphins look to trade him to one of the numerous teams who were scouting him this winter?

THE PREDICTION

Like I said, I think eight linebackers will be kept on the 53-man roster. Joey Porter, Channing Crowder, Matt Roth, Akin Ayodele, Jason Taylor, and Reggie Torbor are all probably safe bets. And I'd say my money is on Cameron Wake and Erik Walden to make the final roster - with Charlie Anderson being one of the final cuts.

I'd also look for one of the two rookies - J.D. Folsom or Orion Martin - to make the practice squad.

SB Nation - William Kershaw

Final Roster Predictions

Miami Dolphins Training Camp Primer: Linebacker to be a heated battle